Heatwaves

[Sigmetnow]

Need a thread for heat waves and their effects.  So here we go.

UPDATE 2-Texas power demand hits all-time peak during heat wave -ERCOT

July 18 (Reuters) - Texas homes and businesses set an all-time power consumption record on Wednesday as consumers crank up air conditioners to escape a brutal heat wave, according to the operator of most of the state's power grid.

The Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) said demand reached 71,438 megawatts (MW) on Wednesday, topping the grid's August 2016 high of 71,110 MW. One megawatt can power about 1,000 U.S. homes.

To keep air conditioners humming, Texas utilities bought electricity from all sources, boosting power prices to their highest in almost seven years. ...

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/18/reuters-america-update-2-texas-power-demand-hits-all-time-peak-during-heat-wave-ercot.html

[jacksmith4tx]

I'm right in the middle of this, 118 local temp. From 8:30 AM till 6:15 PM I'm exporting and I put 20kWh on the grid today. I might earn $3.00. with my net metering. Meanwhile ERCOT is paying over $2,000 per MWH from auxiliary generators. ERCOT will pay up to $7,000 in an emergency before they force load shedding.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2018/07/19/a-mega-heat-wave-is-gaining-strength-over-texas-and-the-south-central-united-states/?utm_term=.8bea483fdb89
"A mega-heat wave is gaining strength over Texas and the south-central United States"
An extreme heat wave is hitting Texas and surrounding states. Temperatures in much of that region have been near and past 100 for days, and they will rise there and beyond in the days ahead. Heading toward its peak, this is the most significant heat wave in Texas since 2011, and some record highs could even be in jeopardy before it finishes.

That 2011 drought was one of the worse in Texas history. This drought is just getting started too. Farmers and ranchers are hurting.

http://www.ercot.com/content/cdr/html/loadForecastVsActualCurrentDay.html
Wind: http://www.ercot.com/content/cdr/html/CURRENT_DAYCOP_HSL.html
https://texaselectricnews.com/

[jacksmith4tx]

Global heat wave: an epic TV news fail
https://thebulletin.org/2018/07/global-heat-wave-an-epic-tv-news-fail/

“Major broadcast TV networks overwhelmingly failed to report on the links between climate change and extreme heat,” according to a Media Matters survey. “Over a two-week period from late June to early July, ABC, CBS, and NBC aired a combined 127 segments or weathercasts that discussed the heat wave, but only one segment, on CBS This Morning, mentioned climate change.”

Any wonder why climate change is at the bottom of the list of things americans worry about?

For example this was on al jazeera today.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/07/14-dead-tokyo-heatwave-grips-japan-180720090730414.html

At least 14 people are known to have died in the Japanese capital alone, with the Philippine television network ABS-CBN reporting that the total number of people who have died since the heatwave began on July 9 has reached 30.

Temperatures in the ancient capital of Kyoto was 38.3 degrees Celsius on Thursday, marking the seventh straight day of 38C or higher heat - a level unseen since record-keeping first began.

[jacksmith4tx]

It's above 120F degrees today. Hopefully this should be close to the high temperature for the next few days. Without even looking at a thermometer you can tell how hot it is by just watching the trees dropping their leaves. Everywhere I go there are piles of dead leaves under all the trees.

Weather History for Fort Worth, TX [KTXFORTW320]

Summary, July 22, 2018
High Temperature    123.1 °F

[Sigmetnow]

The disturbing reason heat waves can kill people in cooler climates
It’s not a record-high temperature that necessarily makes a heat wave dangerous. It’s whether you can cool off.

Heat waves are not an equal-opportunity threat
The common denominator in the recent heat-related deaths and hospital visits in Canada and Japan is that many occurred among people who were already facing health risks and who didn’t have access to cooling. We saw this play out in Quebec, where many of Canada’s recently heat-related fatalities occurred, according to NPR:

Most of the people who died as the region reached temperatures up to 95 degrees are elderly men and women living alone in apartments with no air conditioning, and many had chronic health conditions.

David Kaiser, a physician manager at the Montreal Regional Department of Public Health, confirmed to NPR that 34 of the deaths occurred in the city from June 29 through July 7. With few exceptions, he said, the people were over the age of 50, many between 65 to 85. About 60 percent were men and most had an underlying medical or mental health condition, Kaiser added.

In Pakistan, many of the deaths during its heat wave came during a power outage that swept Karachi that left people with no way to escape the heat. The heat wave in Japan came after massive flooding and landslides that also knocked out power to tens of thousands of homes the week before. ...

https://www.vox.com/2018/7/18/17561266/summer-2018-heat-wave-weather-health

[Archimid]

Japan logs historic high temperature of over 41 C amid persistent heat wave

https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20180723/p2g/00m/0dm/062000c

The Tokyo Fire Department dispatched ambulances 3,125 times within the capital on Sunday alone, the largest figure for a day since it began emergency services in 1936, apparently due to a surge in the number of people falling ill from the intense heat.

As of Monday, the number of people who have been taken to hospitals by Tokyo's ambulances due to heatstroke this year stood at 3,544, already surpassing the 3,454 for the whole of last year, according to the department's preliminary report.

That human civilization thrived in a world where almost no place surpasses the temperature limits of the human body is not coincidence.

[Sigmetnow]

Japan Sets its All-Time Heat Record: 41.1°C (106°F)
https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Japan-Sets-its-All-Time-Heat-Record-411C-106F

[Bruce Steele]

We had a heatwave here in Southern California that set records a couple weeks back. Temperatures here hit 103 F , unusually hot for this coastal influenced climate. The swallows were sitting on their nests with eggs and new fledgling chicks. The babies didn't make it and i have one active nest left. There were about a hundred active birds before the heatwave. I am going to check to see if the adults also expired.
 I asked around at the local feed store and got confirmation other people noticed nest failure and abandonment.

[jacksmith4tx]

Japan needs to get it's Yen/Yang back in balance.
http://tropicalstormrisk.com/tracker/dynamic/201815W.html

Floods, heat waves, typhoons... All they need is another mega earthquake topped off by a major volcanic eruption and they will have a Royal Flush.

[jai mitchell]

https://thinkprogress.org/heat-waves-bother-you-under-trump-climate-policies-add-another-add-12f-fd4ef3ec514e/

 

Heat waves bother you? Under Trump climate policies, add another 12°F
America faces monster 131°F heat waves in the coming decades.

Typical five-day heat waves in the U.S. will be 12°F warmer by mid-century alone, according to the U.S. National Climate Assessment (NCA), which the White House itself reviewed and approved last November.

Projected changes in annual average temperatures (2070–2099) with strong climate policies (left) and with current policies (right). CREDIT: National Climate Assessment

. . .

For instance, America (and much of the world) will start seeing monster “humid heat waves” — where the heat index hits a fatal 131°F — every other year by century’s end.

[litesong]

The swallows..... babies didn't make it..... other people noticed nest failure.....

Birds & animals die..... poor people & the homeless without A/C die...... The greatness of America is a myth, with help for the poor ALWAYS never lasting, sporadic, racist & NEVER part of the infrastructure.

[Sigmetnow]

Netherlands

Kees van der Leun (@Sustainable2050)
7/28/18, 1:23 AM
“Unbelievable. In 117 years of records here in central NL, the hottest day had a 24h average of 27.1°C.
On Thursday, the record leaped to 27.7°C.
And yesterday, it rocketed to 29.8°C, over 2 full degrees warmer than any day before!
Terrifying, even.”
https://twitter.com/sustainable2050/status/1023076521743970305
Data image at the link.

[jacksmith4tx]

Netherlands

On Thursday, the record leaped to 27.7°C.
And yesterday, it rocketed to 29.8°C, over 2 full degrees warmer than any day before!
Terrifying, even.”

Said the human, as he scurried away to find a air conditioned room and a cool drink of water.

Too bad we can't hear the screams of pain and death from the flora and fauna.

[Sigmetnow]

Looks like alternatives or reformulations for asphalt are needed in our warming world.

Dutch gritters salt roads during heatwave

Road-users in Arnhem were surprised to see the gritters scattering salt at busy junctions this week, but it seems that salt can be used not only to provide traction in freezing conditions but also to stop asphalt from melting, according to the Algemeen Dagblad newspaper.

The winter visitors have also been seen on the roads of Groningen, Hoorn and Geldermalsen in the last two days, especially at roundabouts where heavy traffic tears the softened asphalt from the road surface.

The councils say salt helps by attracting moisture from the ambient air and cooling the asphalt. It also removes excess moisture from the asphalt, making it less sticky. ...

https://www.bbc.com/news/amp/blogs-news-from-elsewhere-44973082

[Sigmetnow]

Eric Holthaus on Twitter: "Finland, 2018 -- just miles from the Arctic Circle: Sunbathers enjoy record warm temperatures, alongside reindeer. In the distance, a wildfire burns.”
https://mobile.twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/1023932536471347200

July 30:  severe-weather.EU on Twitter: "Heat wave in north Europe: this scene needs no comment - center of Rovaniemi in north Finland at 32 °C. July 20. It is still very hot there today (up to 32 °C in extreme north of Finland). Report: Pekka Niinivaara"
https://mobile.twitter.com/severeweatherEU/status/1023923202928586752
Image below.

[Shared Humanity]

Is that a fire in the distance on the hills?

[Reallybigbunny]

Yes the article points this out.

[Forest Dweller]

Netherlands

Kees van der Leun (@Sustainable2050)
7/28/18, 1:23 AM
“Unbelievable. In 117 years of records here in central NL, the hottest day had a 24h average of 27.1°C.
On Thursday, the record leaped to 27.7°C.
And yesterday, it rocketed to 29.8°C, over 2 full degrees warmer than any day before!
Terrifying, even.”
https://twitter.com/sustainable2050/status/1023076521743970305
Data image at the link.

Yes, all records are broken here pretty much except hottest daytime temp.
We missed that by 0.1 C it seems but the old record was measured by an old man in 1976 who worked a weather station in his garden shed so who knows.(38.2C)

But much worse is the devastating drought, by far the worst in Europe.
While Sweden, Finland, Germany or others have seen intermittent rainy periods there has just been nothing worth mentioning in Netherlands for months now...and there is no end in sight.
There are dozens of fires every day but since human presence is everywhere the response is quick and adequate.
The park in front of my place caught fire for the first time ever.

Remember, this is the country of water and floods which has little idea of how to deal with water shortages and droughts.
We met with a Prof. of climate adaptation at Wageningen University just before summer, and all the focus was on rain bombs, drainage and damage reduction thereof.
I remember getting funny looks when mentioning dry weather patterns could linger...maybe not so much now.
The opposite happens right now, preparing for a worse heatwave next year.
But that may well turn into a different affair with the dreaded rains showing up me thinks...
All in all an unprecedented disaster and literally lethal.
Looking at the satellite everything that should be green is yellow, but the waters are green now from the algae.

Problems everywhere from infrastructure to agriculture and everything else.
As a wildlife researcher especially, working in a hilly area with hardly any water source my heart breaks, and i fear coming winter may finish off much of what is left after summer.
Animals will have very few reserves with food sources already not producing or dead.

[RikW]

Yeah, same here; I live near the largest 'forest' in the Netherlands, but it's all sand where it's growing on, so it's extremely dry. Lot's of small fires in the region along the roads/train tracks. All the heath is dried out and a ticking time bomb. Too often cigarettes thrown away by people...

[wili]

msnbc takes a rare break from non-stop Trump coverage to notice that the world is burning (but they still have to start with a trump shot!):

http://www.msnbc.com/all-in/watch/record-setting-temperatures-around-the-world-this-summer-1288753219853

[colchonero]

Can't wait for the new GFS run tomorrow (0z or 6z), it could be really historical. We could break European record from Athens that was set on 10th of July 1977. when there was 48C recorded! On Friday at 14h CET (central European time) GFS 6z from today has 44C and at 17h it has 49C for the same area forecasted!!!  But wait, we ain't over yet. On Saturday GFS has 49C already at 14h (there is no 3h update by the GFS that far away. 3h update ends on +84h and Saturday afternoon is still almost 100h away, so there is just data for 14h and 20h  local time on Saturday). The place where this could happen is Portugal/Spain area (Iberian peninsula). It is worth noting for those who don't know, that over there in summer (because of the time zones) the warmest part of the day is around 17hCET (that is also Spanish time) =16h Portugal time. So there is a chance that tomorrow we might see 50C forecasted on European soil for the first in history by some meteorological model. But even if it does show that tomorrow it's not a sure thing that it will  happen indeed, cause when temperatures are forecasted to be that high, even a smallest thing can "stop" progress for an hour and keep the daily high 3C lower.

Last year we broke Spanish record (47,3 in Montoro) and were just 0,7C short of breaking European record, is this the year, Iberian peninsula takes the warmth trophy from Greece .

[colchonero]

GFS forecasters didn't want to wait for tomorrow, so they've raised temperature even more in their last run , now we officially have 50C already on Friday at 17h, and where there is on there is place for another one too, so we also have 50C on Saturday at 14h.

[bbr2314]

That is absolutely absurd. Hopefully there will be no massive wildfires concurrent but recent history does not give hope.

[colchonero]

Yup, I think this is the first time in history, that a model (GFS/ECMWF don't know about the others) has shown 50C in short range forecast(less than 100h from release date).

[Stephan]

The heat wave in Germany goes on and on and on.
Today the hottest temperature was recorded in Bernburg (Saale), Sachsen-Anhalt. The weather station measured 39.2°C. And in that area there was almost no rain since late April. It looks very sad and bad there. The harvest is ruined, corn and crops had to be harvested much earlier than in other years, and the yield was mostly less than 50 per cent of what it should be.
Politicians have met today to discuss the topic. But they will not act to support the farmers before end of August, when the harvest report for 2018 is officially available. I am not sure whether all the farmers can wait such a long time...

[Forest Dweller]

Yeah, same here; I live near the largest 'forest' in the Netherlands, but it's all sand where it's growing on, so it's extremely dry. Lot's of small fires in the region along the roads/train tracks. All the heath is dried out and a ticking time bomb. Too often cigarettes thrown away by people...

Yup Rik, Veluwe area i presume where you are?
'forest" in brackets lol, that is correct.
Still the best we have, i keep telling people here to stop making more heath landscapes and call it nature.
Useless landscapes in any extreme they are.
I tell them to stop fighting invasive species like cherry because they are fundamental to the food chain and better adapted to climate.
They think i am crazy mostly of course...planting beech trees with zero chance of surviving looks heroic and is a good excuse to log the rest, make some more biomass too.
Us Dutch think we can recreate the vegetation of the middle ages and call it natural, in a climate emergency situation...so who's crazy?
Hands off everything is too difficult to understand for the industrially brainwashed it seems.

Just checking the models today it is hard to believe what they are saying.
Massive heat and more drought all the way in the 10 day forecast.
39 C and just 1 day with maybe a few mm rain....disastrous.
I may have to become a climate refugee if this is the trend for summer, seriously.
Iv'e been locked up in the house for months now because of all the health issues.
My skin goes apeshit in just 10 minutes of sun, my nose feels like hot knives are poked in making my head explode, my whole body is affected and trembling, cramping up.
No way i can go out in the field for wildlife research, i'm just trying to make it through at the moment.
I should go study pine martens in Scotland from now on...

[Sigmetnow]

“Death Valley, California just clinched the hottest month ever recorded on Planet Earth. Average high: 121°F (49°C) Average low: 96°F (36°C) Average monthly temperature: 108°F (42°C)”

https://mobile.twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/1024475957669896192

[Archimid]

South Korea sets all-time record high temperature amid deadly heat wave

https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/south-korea-sets-all-time-record-high-temperature-amid-deadly-heat-wave/70005657

Temperatures soared to the highest recorded level since records began in 1907 as the mercury reached 40.7 C (105.7 F) in Hongcheon, located in northeastern South Korea.
...
Since the start of the heat wave, at least 29 people have died from heat stroke and more than 2,200 others have been hospitalized with heat-related illnesses, according to the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

[Forest Dweller]

Maybe the record breaking temperatures in Death valley will boost eco tourism?

[Sigmetnow]

Maybe the record breaking temperatures in Death valley will boost eco tourism?

They’ve already had to ask people to stop trying to fry eggs on the pavement.

 “Some people do not belong in the wild.”

Death Valley National Park to visitors: Stop frying eggs on the ground
https://www.yahoo.com/news/blogs/sideshow/death-valley-national-park-visitors-stop-frying-eggs-213244274.html

[Sigmetnow]

”Forecaster AccuWeather said it would not only be possible to break the highest temperature on the Iberian Peninsula, but also the highest temperature ever recorded in Europe.”

Temperatures in Spain and Portugal could exceed 48 degrees — breaking all-time Europe record
http://www.euronews.com/amp/2018/08/01/temperatures-in-spain-and-portugal-could-exceed-48-degrees-breaking-all-time-europe-record

Kees van der Leun (@Sustainable2050)
8/2/18, 2:14 PM
@climatestate @EricHolthaus Nope. Mora in Portugal and Montoro in Spain both hit 44.3°C, and results are still coming in.
https://twitter.com/sustainable2050/status/1025082450182111232

I'm using the met institutes ipma.pt and aemet.es
https://twitter.com/sustainable2050/status/1025083250543349761

[colchonero]

El Granado (Huelva community not Granada) measured 46,4C at 16:20 today(no more recent measurment data yet) , yesterday's "winner" with 45C and Spain's record holder Montoro jumped to second place after a low start (very usual for Montoro because of the North Andalucia desert terrain ). They started with temp min of just 19,7C, while some places had their temp min at 27+C. But as the sun goes up, temperature spikes really fast in Montoro, so they are now at 45,2C (measured at 16:30) with by far the biggest gains in the last 3h (I think almost 6C in the last 3h). Just to mention, that yesterday Montoro's (and Spain's) daily high was measured at 19:10 local time. I don't think it will be that late today again, but I think we can get to 47C either in el Granado or Montoro, and wait for tomorrow to see if the European record will be broken or not.

You can follow updates at  http://www.aemet.es/es/eltiempo/observacion/ultimosdatos?k=esp&w=1&datos=det   
However there is no English version, I think.

[Sigmetnow]

Leo Hickman (@LeoHickman)
8/3/18, 5:20 AM
Historians will look back at page 9 of today's Times with great interest.
The combination of stories by @whippletom @emilygosden @bwebster135 et al is quite something...
https://twitter.com/leohickman/status/1025310469286973440
Image below.  Links to the articles are in the twitter replies to the above link.

[Shared Humanity]

It is generally not understood by people less informed than those here that human civilization is incompatible with 100 year droughts. There is simply no effective response as the lack of precipitation kills off complex societies.

[Forest Dweller]

Leo Hickman (@LeoHickman)
8/3/18, 5:20 AM
Historians will look back at page 9 of today's Times with great interest.
The combination of stories by @whippletom @emilygosden @bwebster135 et al is quite something...
https://twitter.com/leohickman/status/1025310469286973440
Image below.  Links to the articles are in the twitter replies to the above link.

Indeed Sigmetnow, all very interesting reads.
The Maya being affected by drought is one factor considered in their demise yes, it's believed they started poisoning their remaining water supply because of it...throwing lot's of human sacrifices in their remaining cenotes.
But also just unsustainable civilization depleting resources etc is a plausible hypothesis.(or both)
LIDAR flights are literally finding hundreds of thousands of new sites covered by jungle that were previously unsuspected.
The pyramids of Tikal or other cities, that's just the central square of the city it turns out.
Infrastructure is hidden all around, massive road networks and towns littering the entire jungle.
Population estimate is now up from  2 million people or so to 20 million or more.
All chopping trees, making limestone and depleting resources/habitat.
Agrarian civilizations such as these could arguably be considered as early forms of industry and therefore less sustainable.
Take the Egyptians for example who did similar activity, their grand pyramid building period was actually very short which most people don't know.
Abandoning that could have played a part in why they lasted for so long compared to others.

In a scenario such as that of the enormous Maya civilization going on and on it's not hard to imagine drought finishing off an already sick society.
Priests and kings failing while promising a better harvest, food shortage, rebellion, violence...back to primitive living it is then...now what does that remind us of? 

Records could be broken tomorrow still in the Netherlands, but it's expected the heat/ drought that has lingered since May will finally move on after that.
I'm keeping my fingers crossed, similar predictions have disappointed so far.
Sell my soul to the devil for a week of at least intermittent rain...being locked up inside for months is getting very boring.
Hopefully i'll get out soon and and be able to assess the damage to wildlife.

[Shared Humanity]

food shortage, rebellion, violence...back to primitive living it is then...now what does that remind us of? 

Our collective fate?

It always amuses me when you recognize oligarchs are preparing for the approaching disaster, buying islands, mountain retreats etc. In a primitive society, there is no need for such a hierarchy and the elite will quickly be recognized as a useless burden and will be the first to go. We just won't need futures traders and financiers where we are heading.

[Forest Dweller]

food shortage, rebellion, violence...back to primitive living it is then...now what does that remind us of? 

Our collective fate?

It always amuses me when you recognize oligarchs are preparing for the approaching disaster, buying islands, mountain retreats etc. In a primitive society, there is no need for such a hierarchy and the elite will quickly be recognized as a useless burden and will be the first to go. We just won't need futures traders and financiers where we are heading.

Food/water/shelter seems a tiny bit more important than a civilized status quo yes....lol.
My favorite example is how those primitives on North Sentinel Island are able to live quite happily on a few square miles for at least 60.000 years....no problem when you focus on the basics.

The rich are prepping and running yes, i hear New Zealand or Tasmania are popular because the famous professor of doom Mcpherson gave that advice.
And then retracted it as well haha 
I'm not a huge fan of the man and i would recommend anybody to do some basic prepping unlike he does.
Things do look grim and apart from the ever lasting discussion on human extinction etc. there is other concerns....suffering sucks.

[Archimid]

Record heatwave pushes hospitals into emergency measures

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2018/aug/08/record-breaking-heatwave-pushing-hospitals-into-emergency-measures

Hospitals are having to adopt winter-style emergency measures, including turning away patients through being busy, as the NHS struggles to cope with illnesses caused by the heatwave in the UK.

Patients are being treated in corridors, and queues of ambulances are building up outside A&E units in what hospital bosses say are unprecedented scenes for the summerwhich is usually the quietest time of year for the NHS.

[Sigmetnow]

Stefan Rahmstorf on Twitter: "A phenomenal heat record: so hot were the past five months in Germany! The old record from 2003 was beaten by a full 1.6 °C! Scale on the left shows the temperature deviation from the first 30 years of the record, the color curve the data smoothed over 11 years.”
https://mobile.twitter.com/rahmstorf/status/1035832078930247680
First image below.

“Here is the same analysis for all of Europe, thanks to Etienne Kapikian @EKMeteo
 Anyone interested in global mean temperature, for all 12 months of each year: I post a graph of that almost every month around the 15th when the @NASAGISS data come out.”
Second image below.

[Shared Humanity]

Those charts are frightening.

[bligh8]

When will this hellish heat wave finally end in New Jersey?


Been like this on/off all summer....when it's not raining cat's and dog's,  cat's and dog's doesn't really fit these days....more like elephants and rhinos.  The heat's been brutal, keeps folks indoors.


https://www.nj.com/weather/index.ssf/2018/07/nj_weather_summer_heat_wave_how_long.html

[magnamentis]

Those charts are frightening.

if we believe BBR relieve is on the way (imminent)  "sarc"

[Ned W]

This interactive op-ed in the NY Times ought to get some attention:

Heat and Humidity Are a Killer Combination

It's extremely well done.  Check it out.

[Archimid]

Sigh. I bet this study completely ignores the disappearance during summer of the ASI. Once there is no ice in the Arctic during summer, the NH will experience ungodly humid heatwaves.

[Ned W]

The "study" that the NY Times piece is inspired by is Ethan's PhD dissertation, which can be downloaded here:

https://academiccommons.columbia.edu/doi/10.7916/D88358JX

It's about the toxic interaction between heat and humidity in low to mid latitudes under likely global warming conditions. 

It's not about the Arctic, and that's OK.  Not everything in the climate is controlled by Arctic sea ice!  Ethan is a smart kid and he spent years working on this for his PhD, please do not "sigh" at it.  Thanks. 

[Archimid]

My apologies Ned W. This is great work indeed. I followed the links and looked the paper over  (looking for ASI references) and it is very inviting to read. I should have mentioned that before I dissed it. It is informative and with good visuals, a must read. But like all science, it must be subject to review. What I said was done with that in mind.

(More about the science in a reply, getting apology out first. This is a must read paper.)

[Ned W]

No problemo, Archimid.  I am just proud of Ethan (a former colleague) -- not many young, newly-minted scientists get invited by the New York Times to turn part of their doctoral dissertation into an opinion piece. 

[Archimid]

About why the Arctic matters when determining the threat of heatwaves in the context of climate change:

 Look at the way seasons work in the NH. During summers, heat from the sun and the rest of the NH enters the Arctic and melts ice. That means that the ice keeps the hemisphere at a lower temperature than it would otherwise be.

During winter, without the Sun, the Arctic "stores " ice that is then used during summer.

When there is no longer any sea ice to melt two things happen. The heat flow from the NH to the Arctic slows down and the geopotential height above the Arctic crashes.  These two factors set the stage for  apocalyptic disruptions of the jetstreams and global weather patterns.

When places are caugth below a warm "jetstream wave", when there is no longer sea ice, during the peak of summer, horrible temperatures/humidity combinations will be possible.

These temperature anomalies can happen while the average global temperatures remain happily within model predictions.

The sigh,was out of despair not out of spite. The paper gets us a step closer to the reality of climate change but it is still too rosy.

[TerryM]

Have not read the pieces yet, but presumptively, can anyone explain why wet bulb temperatures are not part of every evening weather report?
Terry

[vox_mundi]

Darwin, Australia Swelters Through Hottest Night Ever Recorded
http://www.desdemonadespair.net/2018/12/darwin-australia-swelters-through.html

... In a message on social media this morning the Bureau of Meteorology (Northern Territory) posted: “This will not be a false alarm. Since 9am Tues morning, the temperature at Darwin Airport has not dropped below 30C, breaking the previous record of 29.7C”.
https://twitter.com/BOM_NT/status/1072603274409328640

The previous overnight minimum record of 29.7C was recorded on Tuesday morning so it’s been a sweltering two nights in a row for Darwin residents.

A Bureau spokesman said they were not expecting much in the way of rain over Darwin for the next few days so, unfortunately, not much relief from the skies on the horizon.