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jai mitchell

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Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #50 on: December 28, 2018, 04:09:42 PM »
Australia

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2018/12/27/australia-heat-wave-temperatures-soar-above-120-degrees-near-record/2423556002/

Quote
A blistering high temperature of 120 degrees reported Thursday in Marble Bar, Western Australia, was only 3 degrees below the continent's all-time record high temperature of 123 degrees, set in 1960 in Oodnadatta.

The Northern Territory has already had a brutally hot month: "Forget frying an egg on the footpath, in Tennant Creek, Northern Territory, you could roast a whole chook in the main square, as the town heads toward its 28th day above 104 degrees this December," the Australian Broadcasting Corporation reported.
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Klondike Kat

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Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #51 on: December 28, 2018, 06:00:06 PM »
Amazing how many of the record highs from 50 - 100 years ago still stand.

jai mitchell

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Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #52 on: December 28, 2018, 06:12:56 PM »
the main feedback of water vapor tends to increase the nighttime temperatures and winter temperatures more than those of the summer daytime temperatures.  The impact on high temps is still within the variability range of normal operations (though the trend is higher.

What is much more impactful is the LENGTH of the heatwaves where the temperature doesn't drop below that of a heat wave for weeks and weeks.  This is where the climate signal is really being seen today in Australia and elsewhere.
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John Batteen

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Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #53 on: December 29, 2018, 07:26:16 PM »
Most of the heat records from the dirty thirties still stand in the US also.

Klondike Kat

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Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #54 on: December 29, 2018, 10:02:05 PM »
the main feedback of water vapor tends to increase the nighttime temperatures and winter temperatures more than those of the summer daytime temperatures.  The impact on high temps is still within the variability range of normal operations (though the trend is higher.

What is much more impactful is the LENGTH of the heatwaves where the temperature doesn't drop below that of a heat wave for weeks and weeks.  This is where the climate signal is really being seen today in Australia and elsewhere.

Water vapor tends to moderate temperatures.  Hence, while winter and nighttime temperatures are on the rise, summer daytime temperatures are not.

vox_mundi

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Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #55 on: December 29, 2018, 11:58:12 PM »
the main feedback of water vapor tends to increase the nighttime temperatures and winter temperatures more than those of the summer daytime temperatures.  The impact on high temps is still within the variability range of normal operations (though the trend is higher.

What is much more impactful is the LENGTH of the heatwaves where the temperature doesn't drop below that of a heat wave for weeks and weeks.  This is where the climate signal is really being seen today in Australia and elsewhere.

Water vapor tends to moderate temperatures.  Hence, while winter and nighttime temperatures are on the rise, summer daytime temperatures are not.
Only seen in coastal temperature up till 2005
https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/2008JCLI2111.1

Quote
... HOTTEST SUMMERS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY RECENT FOR MANY LOCATIONS
https://www.google.com/amp/s/weather.com/amp/news/climate/news/2018-06-12-hottest-coldest-summer-record-us-cities.html

Out of the 50 cities we looked at, just over half of those have had the hottest June-August period since 2010.

« Last Edit: December 30, 2018, 12:40:11 AM by vox_mundi »
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Klondike Kat

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Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #56 on: December 30, 2018, 05:57:27 AM »
And then there are those who present cherry-picked data from the coldest summers of the past century, and try to pass them off as science. Why not include data from the entire century?  I suspect it was because the earlier summers were much hotter, and it would ruin your trend.  Check out the historical heat wave index:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/blogs.ancestry.com/cm/summer-scorchers-americas-9-worst-heat-waves-ever-recorded/amp/

SteveMDFP

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Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #57 on: December 30, 2018, 07:19:39 AM »
And then there are those who present cherry-picked data from the coldest summers of the past century, and try to pass them off as science. Why not include data from the entire century?  I suspect it was because the earlier summers were much hotter, and it would ruin your trend.  Check out the historical heat wave index:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/blogs.ancestry.com/cm/summer-scorchers-americas-9-worst-heat-waves-ever-recorded/amp/

Well, there are different kinds of cherry-picking one can do.  It helps to read scientific reports that will report different measures of summer heat.  Attached is figure 2.3 from p. 39 of:
Weather and Climate Extremes in a Changing Climate
Published by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program
https://downloads.globalchange.gov/sap/sap3-3/sap3-3-final-all.pdf

The first graph is shown in that Ancestry.com page, but not the 2nd and 3rd, which provide a more nuanced picture.  That whole chapter of the cited report is relevant here.

Yes, during the Great Depression, the US had some hot summers.  I would guess, offhand, reduced sulfate emissions from reduced industrial coal use may be to blame.  The world may be re-visiting this phenomenon as more parts of the globe act to reduce coal pollution.

Another form of cherry-picking is to look at US-only summer temperatures.  If one examines summer temperature trends in the UK and rest of Europe, the 1930s were not so exceptional, while the contemporary worrisome trend is quite pronounced.  See, for example, the second attachment, from:
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/summaries/actualmonthly

So, indeed, cherry-picking is to be carefully avoided.

Klondike Kat

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Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #58 on: December 30, 2018, 02:36:16 PM »
The two middle graphs tend to confirm what we have been claiming about water vapor. Namely, that it has increased nighttime temperatures, but has had little influence on daytime temperatures.  The daytime highs are still within the range of normal variability.

Shared Humanity

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Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #59 on: December 30, 2018, 03:02:53 PM »
I was going to access some NOAA data to contribute to this discussion but 'no can do'.

https://governmentshutdown.noaa.gov/

Shared Humanity

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Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #60 on: December 30, 2018, 03:19:39 PM »
And then there are those who present cherry-picked data from the coldest summers of the past century, and try to pass them off as science. Why not include data from the entire century?  I suspect it was because the earlier summers were much hotter, and it would ruin your trend.  Check out the historical heat wave index:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/blogs.ancestry.com/cm/summer-scorchers-americas-9-worst-heat-waves-ever-recorded/amp/

Well, there are different kinds of cherry-picking one can do.  It helps to read scientific reports that will report different measures of summer heat.  Attached is figure 2.3 from p. 39 of:
Weather and Climate Extremes in a Changing Climate
Published by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program
https://downloads.globalchange.gov/sap/sap3-3/sap3-3-final-all.pdf

The first graph is shown in that Ancestry.com page, but not the 2nd and 3rd, which provide a more nuanced picture.  That whole chapter of the cited report is relevant here.

Yes, during the Great Depression, the US had some hot summers.  I would guess, offhand, reduced sulfate emissions from reduced industrial coal use may be to blame.  The world may be re-visiting this phenomenon as more parts of the globe act to reduce coal pollution.

Another form of cherry-picking is to look at US-only summer temperatures.  If one examines summer temperature trends in the UK and rest of Europe, the 1930s were not so exceptional, while the contemporary worrisome trend is quite pronounced.  See, for example, the second attachment, from:
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/summaries/actualmonthly

So, indeed, cherry-picking is to be carefully avoided.

Discussing heat waves necessarily means you focus on the region affected but this data from North America extreme temperatures can also mislead if you attempt to argue or even suggest that this is somehow indicative of the climate change impacts on heat waves across the planet. There was a spike in global average temps that peaked in the early 1940's and, no doubt, this spike will be found in regional heat wave records but global average temps have climbed dramatically since and I suspect that if we were to look at regions across the planet, we would find that the incidence of recent heat wave records being set would far outweigh the incidents of 1930's records that still stand.

In effect, focusing only on U.S. heat wave records and trying to argue that this trend is global is 'cherry picking', intentional or not.

Shared Humanity

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Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #61 on: December 30, 2018, 03:34:23 PM »
And regarding global surface temperatures, I have always been fascinated by the dramatic temperature spike that peaked in the mid 1940's. I have asked before for an explanation and have never received one that satisfied.

Klondike Kat

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Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #62 on: December 30, 2018, 08:03:01 PM »
Remember, globally averaged temperatures include all regions, during all times, and all seasons.  We were discussing mid latitude summer high temperatures.  One cannot assume that such a broad average is indicative of all regimes.

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Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #63 on: December 30, 2018, 10:26:23 PM »
Looking at summer temperatures is a bit misleading to a warming planet. We should be looking At fall, winter, and spring temps
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SteveMDFP

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Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #64 on: December 30, 2018, 10:28:54 PM »
Looking at summer temperatures is a bit misleading to a warming planet. We should be looking At fall, winter, and spring temps

In terms of assessing total warming, I think you're quite right.
But people die in significant numbers during heat waves (as well as plants and animals), so it's one part of the picture to watch.

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Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #65 on: December 30, 2018, 10:37:35 PM »
The great depression heat waves had at least some anthropogenic reasons. Mismanagement of the land (deep plowing, for example) led to loss of vegetation and desiccation of the top layer, in turn enhancing temperatures and causing vast dust clouds. That's at least my layman's understanding.

Klondike Kat

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Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #66 on: December 31, 2018, 02:16:43 AM »
If you throw out the devastating heatwaves of the Great Depression and the cool decade of the 60s, there is little trend in heat waves over the past 125 years.

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Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #67 on: December 31, 2018, 03:10:29 AM »
There is, though, a strong trend in the 'hot daily lows' graph, which is just where one would expect the clearest and earliest trends to be detected in a planet being over-heated by greenhouse gasses (as opposed to, for example, increased insolation).
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Klondike Kat

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Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #68 on: December 31, 2018, 01:03:12 PM »
There is, though, a strong trend in the 'hot daily lows' graph, which is just where one would expect the clearest and earliest trends to be detected in a planet being over-heated by greenhouse gasses (as opposed to, for example, increased insolation).

Exactly!  That is most prevalent, especially during the colder months.

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Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #69 on: December 31, 2018, 02:15:21 PM »
And regarding global surface temperatures, I have always been fascinated by the dramatic temperature spike that peaked in the mid 1940's. I have asked before for an explanation and have never received one that satisfied.

Just a point to ponder: Could it have anything to do with WW2. During the '20s a ramp up of industrial activity in prep for conquest and then the subsequent bombing of industry into the ground. Causing first an increase in sulphates from coal burning followed by a reduction due to the desire of TPTB to reduce industrial capacity of the enemy for the war machine. Then as the balance of power shifted a resuming of coal fired electricity to rebuild everything pumping more sulphates up before returning to BAU. Thus causing the gradient to return to being more in line with the slope pre war? No chance in hell proving this one way or the other falls within my pay grade ;D

Cid_Yama

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Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #70 on: December 31, 2018, 06:10:40 PM »
In the 1940's more than half of all homes heated with coal, hot water was provided by a coal fired boiler.  (The rest used wood or, in the northeast, oil.)

The Donora Death Fog in 1948, and the deadly London Fog in 1952 led to the passing of clean air acts in the US and UK and the phasing out of coal for home heating.

So the question should have been, why did the rising temperatures stop, leading to a very cold late 50's and early 60's, and the answer is, the phasing out of coal for home heating.   

« Last Edit: December 31, 2018, 06:31:02 PM by Cid_Yama »
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oren

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Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #71 on: December 31, 2018, 07:01:25 PM »
A clean air act leads to warming, not to cooling, because of the loss of aerosols. That's my layman's understanding.

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Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #72 on: December 31, 2018, 07:20:30 PM »
It was the significant reduction in GHGs from phasing out coal for home heating.  Yes I'm sure it was offset to some degree by the reduction in particulate.  But we are talking significant reductions.

In 1940, 55% of homes burned coal, by 1970 it was down to 2.9%.  In 1940, 23% of households burned wood.  Which was down to 1.3% by 1970.

By 1970, over 50% heated with gas.

https://www.census.gov/hhes/www/housing/census/historic/fuels.html


It was people dying in significant numbers that brought about the transition.
« Last Edit: December 31, 2018, 07:32:22 PM by Cid_Yama »
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Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #73 on: December 31, 2018, 07:45:45 PM »
When I was born in 1943, there were 2.3 billion people on the planet, by 1970, that was up to 3.6 billion.  Imagine if we had not made the transition from coal.  We would have been where we are now, decades earlier. 
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TerryM

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Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #74 on: January 01, 2019, 12:14:12 AM »
My understanding is that WWII marked the end of coal's use in transportation, both at sea and on land.


If we were to phase out coal generating/heating plants could we see a similar effect?

Terry

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Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #75 on: January 01, 2019, 07:13:53 AM »
My understanding is that WWII marked the end of coal's use in transportation, both at sea and on land.


If we were to phase out coal generating/heating plants could we see a similar effect?

Terry
That is my understanding. I'm not sure how much warming would result if the airborne sulfates from burning coal were to be suddenly eliminated, but I have heard that it would be measurable.
However, the effect would be temporary, and similar to how the 60s were like a reversion to the 30s, we might see something similar afterwards. It rather depends on if we phase out other fossil fuels at the same time. Global CO2 levels were rising less than 1ppm back then, the rate is over 3ppm now.

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Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #76 on: January 01, 2019, 05:37:32 PM »
Half of the atmospheric CO2 increase has occurred since 1985, so CO2 emissions have been decoupled from coal.  Sulfur from coal did have a significant cooling effect prior to the  Acid Rain fix, but that has largely been eliminated from the US and Europe

I wonder how much warming will result from China cleaning up its air pollution. 

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Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #77 on: January 01, 2019, 06:00:04 PM »
WRT aerosols.


Wasn't there a large temperature rise recorded over the US mainland when all flights were halted for a few days after 9/11?
Terry

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Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #78 on: January 01, 2019, 07:29:51 PM »
WRT aerosols.


Wasn't there a large temperature rise recorded over the US mainland when all flights were halted for a few days after 9/11?
Terry

Yes.

jai mitchell

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Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #79 on: January 04, 2019, 11:38:59 PM »
WRT aerosols.


Wasn't there a large temperature rise recorded over the US mainland when all flights were halted for a few days after 9/11?
Terry

Yes.

not large, withiin the margin of error and too short of a period to stand out as a definitive record.  Current science of persistent contrails indicates that it warms nighttime temps more than it cools daytime temps.  I feel it is a cooling effect but nothing compared to the vast amounts of SO2 being emitted by fossil fuel burning.
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Gray-Wolf

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Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #80 on: January 05, 2019, 03:14:05 PM »

not large, within the margin of error and too short of a period to stand out as a definitive record.  Current science of persistent contrails indicates that it warms nighttime temps more than it cools daytime temps.  I feel it is a cooling effect but nothing compared to the vast amounts of SO2 being emitted by fossil fuel burning.

No argument about the amounts of dimming that Fossil fuel burning has brought us ( I feel above and beyond what we currently accept) but I'm still unsure just how impacting the stirring of the atmosphere that air travel brings us is or how the pollution it produces impacts our world.

Growing up in the 70's I was very taken by the notion of chaos theory and how the eddies from the flapping of a butterflies wing would add into the building of a hurricane on the other side of the planet.

The mixing from one passenger liner is quite a big 'butterflies wing' flap I feel?

As for the impacts of condensation trails? We live underneath two main flight routes in the UK.One is the route up to the Lockerbie turn over the Atlantic to the U.S. the other is for flights entering the UK from W.europe bound for Manchester airport .

When conditions aloft are conducive the cover of alto stratus certainly impacts the surface temps here! ( most noticeable when the sun emerges!) so I imagine there must be a noticeable impact from air travel especially around the major hubs globally?
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #81 on: January 14, 2019, 01:30:07 AM »
Heatwave to send weather records tumbling across Australia
Quote
Parts of northern South Australia are expected to suffer in five days over 45 degrees [113°F], when they might normally only get five to 10 in a year.

Broken Hill in New South Wales could spend a week over 40, while some north-western NSW towns would reach the high 40s.

Mildura in northern Victoria is expected to hit 46 degrees two days running. Its all-time record is 46.9 degrees. ...
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2019/01/13/weather-heatwave/
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jai mitchell

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Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #82 on: January 16, 2019, 02:24:25 AM »
second continent-wide heatwave this month
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Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #83 on: January 18, 2019, 12:43:58 PM »
One Heatwave Killed 'a Third' of a Bat Species in Australia   
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-46859000

Over two days in November, record-breaking heat in Australia's north wiped out almost one-third of the nation's spectacled flying foxes, according to researchers.

The animals, also known as spectacled fruit bats, were unable to survive in temperatures which exceeded 42C.


Lead researcher Dr Justin Welbergen, an ecologist, believes the "biblical scale" of deaths could be even higher - as many as 30,000 - because some settlements had not been counted.

Australia had only an estimated 75,000 spectacled flying foxes before November, according to government-backed statistics.

"This sort of event has not happened in Australia this far north since European settlement," says Dr Welbergen.

Dr Welbergen says about 10,000 bats of another species - black flying foxes - succumbed to the heat during the same two-day period.

--------------

Australia Heatwave: Overnight Minimum of 35.9C In Noona Sets New Record 
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/jan/18/australia-heatwave-sydneys-west-to-hit-45c-after-week-of-extreme-weather

-----------------

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-46886798

Australia has just sweltered through at least five of its 10 warmest days on record, authorities estimate.

A section of highway connecting Sydney and Melbourne started to melt. Bats fell dead from the trees, struck down by the heat.

On the northern Great Barrier Reef, 99% of baby green sea turtles, a species whose sex is determined by temperature, were found to be female.

In outer suburban Sydney, the heat hit 47.3C (117F) before a cool change knocked it down - to the relative cool of just 43.6C in a neighbouring suburb the following day.

Scenes from a sci-fi novel depicting a scorched future? No, just the first days of 2018 2019 in Australia, where summer is in fierce form

(Thanks TB)
« Last Edit: January 19, 2019, 01:37:32 AM by vox_mundi »
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Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #84 on: January 20, 2019, 03:46:35 PM »
‘It’s like hell here’: Australia bakes as record temperatures nudge 50C [= 122°F ]
Quote
It was 48.9C last Tuesday in Port Augusta, South Australia, an old harbour city that now harvests makes solar power. Michelle Coles, the owner of the local cinema, took off her shoes at night to test the concrete before letting the dogs out. “People tend to stay at home,” she said. “They don’t walk around when it’s like this.”

It’s easy to see why: in the middle of the day it takes seconds to blister a dog’s paw or child’s foot. In Mildura, in northern Victoria, last week gardeners burned their hands when they picked up their tools, which had been left in the sun at 46C. Fish were dying in the rivers.

Almost every day last week a new heat record was broken in Australia. They spread out, unrelenting, across the country, with records broken for all kinds of reasons – as if the statistics were finding an infinite series of ways to say that it was hot.

The tiny town of Noona – population 14 – reached the highest minimum ever recorded overnight in Australia – 35.9C was the coldest it got, at 7am on Friday. It was 45C by noon.

A record fell on Tuesday in Meekatharra in Western Australia – the highest minimum there ever recorded (33C). Another fell on Wednesday, 2,000 miles away, in Albury, New South Wales – their hottest day (45.6C).

It was 45C or higher for four consecutive days in Broken Hill – another record – and more than 40C for the same time period in Canberra, the nation’s capital. Nine records fell across NSW on Wednesday alone. Back in Port Augusta, Tuesday was the highest temperature since records began in 1962. ...
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/jan/19/australia-swelters-as-relentless-hot-weather-smashes-records
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #85 on: January 23, 2019, 06:23:35 PM »
Sydney suffers in heatwave as NSW temperatures soar past 46 degrees Celsius
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-01-18/bom-warns-of-scorching-sydney-weather-with-top-of-45c/10723824

Railway travel is affected, in part due to the risk of steel rails buckling in the heat:
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2075.msg187077.html#msg187077
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #86 on: January 26, 2019, 12:47:05 AM »
120°F in the Shade—and By the Water—As Australia’s Record-Melting Summer Intensifies
 by Bob Henson | Category 6 | Weather Underground
Quote
At least 28 locations hit all-time highs on Thursday. In Adelaide, the capital of South Australia, the official West Terrace station rocketed to 46.6°C (115.9°F)—the highest temperature ever recorded at the designated reporting sites for any of Australia’s state or territorial capitals. About 200 miles away, the city of Port Augusta hit its all-time high on Thursday with a blistering 49.5°C (121.1°F). That’s unnervingly close to the nation’s all-time high of 50.7°C (123.3°F), notched at Oodnadatta, South Australia, on January 2, 1960.

The Port Augusta reading is exceptional in another way: it’s the highest temperature ever recorded at a coastal location in the Southern Hemisphere, according to independent weather researcher Maximiliano Herrera. This includes oceans, seas, gulfs, and lakes, Herrera said. Port August sits near the head of Spencer Gulf, north of Adelaide.

Just a day earlier, on Wednesday, the Red Rocks Point station—which faces Antarctica from the Nullarbor coast of Western Australia—hit 49.1°C (120.4°C). According to Blair Trewin (AU Bureau of Meteorology), the Red Rocks Point station is located only 70 meters (230 feet) from the water. “This is the highest temperature recorded anywhere in the world at such a close distance from an open ocean,” Herrera said. He noted that the sea surface temperature at the time was 22-23°C (72-73°F), quite chilly when compared to the sizzling atmosphere.
...
This summer's brutal heat is having major impacts on thousands of feral horses, donkeys, and cattle, among other creatures....

Fire danger on Friday was running at severe to extreme levels across much of Victoria, prompting a fire weather warning for several districts and a statewide fire ban. The fire risk is also very high to extreme in Tasmania, where at least 29 fires were reportedly out of control late Thursday. Friday marks the start of the Australia Day holiday weekend, which commemorates the nation’s founding. ...
https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/120F-Shadeand-Water-Australias-Record-Melting-Summer-Intensifies
Image below.
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TerryM

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Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #87 on: January 26, 2019, 03:25:06 AM »
Australia is beginning to sound like our own Mojave Desert!


When asphalt melts onto your boots it's too hot for hiking. The wild burros survive. Cliven's cattle stomp through archaeological sites in the heat, and it takes an hour to fill the pool up every evening.


Desert heat is survivable, but if the humidity increases all bets are off.
Terry

Sigmetnow

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Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #88 on: January 30, 2019, 07:01:38 PM »
New Zealand prepares a Road Surface Update as highways melt.

Heatwave breaks second 157-year record
Quote
"Babies and children are also more at risk with rising heat, while healthy adults who work outdoors and those people who are in institutions like prisons, hospitals, and residential care are also especially vulnerable."

Dr MacMillan says as we continue to see every year breaking new records for average and highest temperatures, climate change begins to take its health toll in the form of more days of extreme heat.

"Even short duration heat waves can increase deaths and hospital admissions from heat stroke, heart and lung disease, placing a heavy burden on families, communities, and the health system."

Last week, researchers published findings from last summer's marine heatwave, suggesting the conditions could become the norm for New Zealand summers by the end of the century. ...
https://www.radionz.co.nz/news/national/381088/heatwave-breaks-second-157-year-record
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #89 on: March 11, 2019, 06:58:15 PM »
Brisbane, Sydney weather: Severe heatwave, storms and possible cyclone
Quote
Brisbane’s CBD could reach 36C today, while Ipswich, in the west, may get close to 40C, which would break its previous March record high temperature.

And if that’s not enough weather for you, storms “day in, day out” could hit the sunshine state this week, while a tropical cyclone looks to be brewing off Australia’s north coast, forecasters have said.

Parts of Sydney could also experience scorching highs more akin to summer than autumn over the coming days. ...
https://www.news.com.au/technology/environment/severe-heatwave-forecast-for-southwest-queensland-as-possible-cyclone-brews/news-story/4bde84db7d9652146b260ef5e77a16b7
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

vox_mundi

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Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #90 on: March 11, 2019, 07:16:52 PM »
Australian Climate Tool Identifies End of Winter by 2050 
https://phys.org/news/2019-03-australian-climate-tool-winter.html

Quote
... The new climate tool visualises data which shows by 2050, Australians will no longer enjoy winter as they know it today and will experience a new season the designers are calling "New Summer".

New Summer represents a period of the year where temperatures will consistently peak in many cases well above 40ºC for a sustained period. 

On my stove, that setting is called 'BROIL'!

“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

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Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #91 on: April 01, 2019, 02:59:24 AM »
Alaska Bakes Under Heat Wave Linked to Climate Change   
https://m.phys.org/news/2019-03-alaska-linked-climate.html

March 2019 may prove to be the warmest March on record for many places in Alaska, with temperatures for some northern cities and towns potentially soaring 25 to 40 degrees Fahrenheit above normal

... cities and towns in the northern half of the state, including Wainwright, Nuiqsut, Kaktovik and Barrow (also known as Utqiagvik), could see temperatures soar 25 to 40 degrees Fahrenheit (14 to 22 Celsius) above normal this weekend as the warm trend continues.

"At Barrow, through yesterday, they've had daily record high temperatures five separate days this month ... and that's quite an achievement," Thoman said.

"This is following on the heels of the very warm, and in some places record warm February," he added. "We now have April or May weather in March."

Thoman predicts the warm streak to continue through April, with the highest temperature spikes expected in the western part of the state


“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Rodius

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Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #92 on: April 01, 2019, 04:07:34 AM »
Silly question concerning the Alaskan heatwave.

Given the heat will melt the snow, which creates water that will still be cold, will that chilled water dip the ocean temps more than average in the coming month?
Or will the water warm up more than enough by the time it reaches the ocean?

bbr2314

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Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #93 on: April 01, 2019, 04:25:24 AM »
Silly question concerning the Alaskan heatwave.

Given the heat will melt the snow, which creates water that will still be cold, will that chilled water dip the ocean temps more than average in the coming month?
Or will the water warm up more than enough by the time it reaches the ocean?
The jury is still out on this from what I understand. IMO there probably isn't enough volume in Alaska to result in enough cooling to where it would impact the melt season too substantially or noticeably. I think AK's meltwater impact is more of an all-season minor modulator as the mountain snowpack melts all through summer (as many higher elevations are still glaciated).

Besides lack of sheer volume, my other point against meltwater being too impactful in AK is that it seems area tends to fade very quickly when cover disappears for springtime melt in AK. The albedo modulator (lack of snowcover) over wide areas probably (seemingly) more than makes up for any melt flux-derived cold.

Gray-Wolf

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Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #94 on: April 01, 2019, 11:48:22 AM »
Silly question concerning the Alaskan heatwave.

Given the heat will melt the snow, which creates water that will still be cold, will that chilled water dip the ocean temps more than average in the coming month?
Or will the water warm up more than enough by the time it reaches the ocean?

To melt 1cm cube of ice takes 70 cals

To raise the temp of a 1cm cube of water by 1K takes 1 Calorie

So if there is heat in the system that water will warm very quickly!

Remember the Mckenzie delta over 2012 (?) ? I believe that was warmed waters from the land flooding into the basin?
KOYAANISQATSI

ko.yaa.nis.katsi (from the Hopi language), n. 1. crazy life. 2. life in turmoil. 3. life disintegrating. 4. life out of balance. 5. a state of life that calls for another way of living.
 
VIRESCIT VULNERE VIRTUS

Sigmetnow

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Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #95 on: April 02, 2019, 03:12:49 AM »
Deadhorse, Alaska is above the arctic circle. Coordinates: 70°12′20″N 148°30′42″W
Quote
Brian Brettschneider (@Climatologist49)
4/1/19, 1:46 PM
Here are the daily departures from normal for Deadhorse, AK the last 7 days:
+31.9°F above normal
+33.0°F above normal
+38.0°F above normal
+36.5°F above normal
+36.0°F above normal
+40.0°F above normal
+38.4°F above normal
@AlaskaWx
https://twitter.com/climatologist49/status/1112773314085163008
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vox_mundi

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Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #96 on: April 03, 2019, 12:13:19 PM »
Bleaching Hits World's Southernmost Coral Reef 
https://phys.org/news/2019-04-world-southernmost-coral-reef-scientists.html

... The corals off Lord Howe Island—some 600 kilometres (370 miles) offshore from Sydney—were affected by elevated temperatures this summer, despite escaping severe bleaching that damaged the Great Barrier Reef in 2016 and 2017.

"It's a canary in the coal mine that we are seeing bleaching at this very isolated southernmost reef, which is worrying," Associate Professor Bill Leggat of the University of Newcastle told AFP.

Leggat and other scientists from several Australian universities and the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration found severe bleaching of up to 90 percent at Lord Howe's inshore, shallow lagoon reefs.

« Last Edit: April 29, 2019, 02:33:00 AM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Juan C. García

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Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #97 on: April 03, 2019, 03:53:02 PM »
"It's a canary in the coal mine that we are seeing …"

Leggat and other scientists from several Australian universities and the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration found severe bleaching of up to 90 percent at Lord Howe's inshore, shallow lagoon reefs.

It is not a canary in the coal mine, it is the methane explosion in the coal mine!
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

vox_mundi

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Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #98 on: April 29, 2019, 02:44:38 AM »
Vietnam Just Observed Its Highest Temperature Ever Recorded: 110 Degrees, - In April 
https://desdemonadespair.net/2019/04/vietnam-just-observed-its-highest-temperature-ever-recorded-110-degrees-in-april-it-is-unbreathable-outside-in-this-heat.html

... “It is unbreathable outside in this heat”   



(The Washington Post) – Vietnam broke its national high temperature record Saturday, the latest in a mounting list of records to fall as the world continues to warm.

The scorcher set the mercury thermometer soaring to 110 degrees Fahrenheit (43.4 Celsius) in the community of Huong Khe, a rural district in Ha Tinh province. It’s situated in Vietnam’s northern central coast region, about 150 miles south of the capital, Hanoi. Its average temperature is in the 80s at this time of year.

... What makes the heat even more striking is that it’s only April. Most places in Vietnam see their hottest temperatures in June or July.




------------------------------------------------

Dangerous India Heat Wave to Last Into May as Delhi Records Hottest Day of the Year So Far 
https://accuweather.com/en/weather-news/dangerous-india-heat-wave-to-last-into-may-as-delhi-records-hottest-day-of-the-year-so-far/70008079

The hottest days of the year will grip much of central and northern India in the coming days, and this heat wave is unlikely to end anytime soon.

Previous heat waves in northern India were broken by thunderstorms, which brought damaging winds and flash flooding; however, this heat wave is expected to last into May.

Temperatures soared in Delhi and the National Capital Region (NCR) on Wednesday as a new high temperature was set for the year in New Delhi when the mercury reached 43 C (109 F)

A strong area of high pressure will shield northern India from any approaching storm system into next week, allowing the heat to persist and build further.

The hottest locations may see high temperatures approach 48 C (118 F) by Sunday or Monday. 
« Last Edit: April 29, 2019, 04:18:11 AM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

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Darvince

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Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #99 on: May 02, 2019, 12:46:21 PM »
For the Vietnam record, I think this is not so extremely weird that it has happened in April at that location because from what I searched about that location, there April is the hottest month likely for the same reason May is the hottest month in much of India: the Asian Monsoon has not arrived yet to cool it down, although I would think that Vietnam is always humid.

I would like to see what happened more precisely at that time there but I can't find any website where I can do that. I remember a site that had garish colors and had the meteograms for the last week or so available for every weather station in the world, and I don't think the website was available in English, does anyone know of it?
« Last Edit: May 02, 2019, 12:52:16 PM by Darvince »