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El Cid

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Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #600 on: June 29, 2021, 07:12:44 PM »
Now that you asked, it is again cloudy and rainy in Chicago. 72F (22.2C) with 90% humidity. It's like living in the Pacific Northwest. Well...the old Pacific Northwest.

3 weeks ago you were talking about the huge drought in Chicago and how it is going to stay like that for the whole of June...

Shared Humanity

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Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #601 on: June 29, 2021, 07:49:52 PM »
Now that you asked, it is again cloudy and rainy in Chicago. 72F (22.2C) with 90% humidity. It's like living in the Pacific Northwest. Well...the old Pacific Northwest.

3 weeks ago you were talking about the huge drought in Chicago and how it is going to stay like that for the whole of June...

Yeah...like WTF? We've broken the weather...sticky weather is here for good. I don't expect our weather to change until the ridge over the Northwest goes away.

Looks like that may happen tomorrow.

Riverside

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Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #602 on: June 30, 2021, 12:05:06 AM »
Here in NW Oregon, the heatwave appears to have been fatal for unknown numbers of newborn and juvenile birds and bats. A women near Salem reported a mass baby bat die off in her barn. Another near Corvallis reported baby barn swallows (which nest in the rafters of human structures) crawling out of their nests and dying on the ground. Also in Corvallis, a woman caring for several sets of juvenile birds from a local wildlife rescue center said that despite her best efforts most of the baby birds died.
Baby vertebrates are particularly vulnerable to thermal stress.  These are only the most easily visible examples. The region wide effect on this year's cohort of newborn birds and mammals will vary by species, but in general will probably not be good.
I should also include juvenile coldwater fish in the set of at-risk animals.
« Last Edit: June 30, 2021, 12:55:23 AM by Riverside »

Bruce Steele

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Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #603 on: June 30, 2021, 12:35:29 AM »
Riverside, I saw the same thing happen when we had a spring heatwave with 108F  42C here in Southern Calif. a couple years ago. Baby birds can’t handle high temperatures. Cliff swallows in my eaves died.  The colony has taken a few years to get the numbers of nesting pairs  back and still not totally recovered.
  Anyone who has raised baby chickens with a heat lamp can watch the chicks move closer to the heat or far away from it. If they are as far as they can get and laid out supine with their wings out they are too hot and will die if the heat isn’t moved away.
  There is not much on the internet that connects spring heatwaves and the loss of baby birds. You see pictures of baby eagles by someone’s swimming pool or the stories you just told but they are mere glimpses into how many birds just died.

Niall Dollard

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Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #604 on: June 30, 2021, 02:19:19 AM »
Even hotter again today at Lytton BC.

At 4:20pm it was at 49.5 C.

Will the max get any higher? 50 C ?

vox_mundi

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Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #605 on: June 30, 2021, 02:23:48 AM »
49.5°C= 121°F and no AC ...

-----------------------------------------------------

Record Heat Linked to Deaths In Western Canada, Police Say
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/6/29/record-heat-blasts-western-canada-province

Police in western Canada say extreme heat may be linked to dozens of “sudden” deaths, as the record temperatures prompted the province of British Columbia to close schools, issue flood warnings from glacier melts and urge people to stay indoors.

In a statement on Tuesday, the Royal Canadian Mounted Police (RCMP) in Burnaby, a suburb of Vancouver, said it had responded “to more than 25 sudden death calls” in a 24-hour period since Monday.

While the deaths are still under investigation, the police force said heat was believed to have been “a contributing factor” in the majority of them. Many of the deceased were seniors, it said.

The RCMP in Surrey, another city in the greater Vancouver area, said the police force had responded to 22 “sudden death calls” on Monday and another 13 by midday on Tuesday.

-----------------------------------------

... "Since the onset of the heat wave late last week, the BC Coroners Service has experienced a significant increase in deaths reported where it is suspected that extreme heat has been contributory," Chief Coroner Lisa Lapointe said in a statement.

The coroner's service normally receives about 130 death reports over a four-day period. From Friday through Monday, at least 233 deaths were reported, the chief coroner said, adding "this number will increase as data continues to be updated."

-----------------------------------------

.... Unlike farm workers in California, Washington state farm workers do not have the right to work shade and breaks amid extreme temperatures.

https://www.opb.org/article/2021/06/29/blackouts-in-northwest-due-to-heat-wave-deaths-reported/

------------------------------------------

PHOENIX (AP) — Officials in Arizona’s largest county are investigating 53 suspected heat deaths during a weeklong hot spell earlier this month.

https://apnews.com/article/az-state-wire-heat-waves-321ab71279ec90cc435f8ad6fdfd6ac8

-------------------------------------------

President Joe Biden, during an infrastructure speech in Wisconsin, took note of the Northwest as he spoke about the need to be prepared for extreme weather.

“Anybody ever believe you’d turn on the news and see it’s 116 degrees in Portland Oregon? 116 degrees," the president said, working in a dig at those who cast doubt on the reality of climate change. "But don’t worry -- there is no global warming because it’s just a figment of our imaginations.
« Last Edit: June 30, 2021, 02:52:51 AM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― anonymous

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Shared Humanity

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Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #606 on: June 30, 2021, 04:29:50 AM »
We lack the imagination to fully understand and prepare for the horrors that await us.

kassy

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Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #607 on: June 30, 2021, 11:10:06 AM »
https://www.nu.nl/klimaat/6142605/hittegolf-veroorzaakt-in-alaska-ijsbevingen-doordat-gletsjers-instorten.html

Dutch article but google translate should take care of that.

So three icequakes around Juneau . Alaska related to the event.
The Alaskan Canadian border is 10C warmer then normal for the time of the year. A little further south BC, Alberta, and Washington and Oregon hit 20C anomalies.

It´s quite impressive but hopefully this will increase the awareness of climate change in the US and Canada.
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

karl dubhe2

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Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #608 on: June 30, 2021, 12:50:28 PM »
Gah, another day of the hot.  Predicted to go to 37C for where I live, 54 years old and I've never seen temps like this in Edmonton.   :(   Well, maybe for a day, but not for more than two; then a massive thunderstorm.   (few storms seem to be on the horizon for us now though.)

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/bc-heat-wave-heat-dome-sudden-deaths-1.6084873

The senior citizens who've survived the recent Covid are not going to do well.  Especially those who live without air conditioning.   

A-Team

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Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #609 on: June 30, 2021, 06:18:07 PM »
Quote
When we try to pick out anything by itself, we find it hitched to everything else in the universe -- John Muir's journal 1869
The best analysis (once again) of the unprecedented PacNW heat wave has been by Philippe Papin at NWS' NHC. He walked back the 'antecedent synoptic pattern' to unusual Meiyu Front convection in China whose zonal potential vorticity energized cyclogenesis in an atmospheric jet (annotated frames of mp4 below).

https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1407849632621764610 
https://tinyurl.com/y6v8uj66 B Hensen J Masters overview
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meiyu_front good account

This analysis is necessarily quantitatively correct (the main issue in extreme events) because Papin dug through the hourly ECMWF and GFS products to see how their ensembles got it consistently correct seven days ahead. (NWS held these back to avoid 'windshield wiper' weather forecasts.)

That semi-predictive accuracy (it includes a lot of nrt data) has been a major source of astonishment in the wx scientific community, ie the era of human participation in weather analysis is about over -- we are reduced to putting text overlays on graphics and authoring auto-commentary.

It is rather amazing that the RBW (breaking of Rossby wave over BC) could be accurate despite the jet being 6 sigma off the usual. This speaks to correct internal portrayal of difficult atmospheric physics in these highly evolved algorithms.

Taking another step back, we could ask whether the Meiyu Front contribution was simply ill-timed random weather or whether a climate change angle has altered the Meiyu, meaning the PacNW 'heat wave' will not be a one-off event.

While that will be the focus of an avalanche of attribution articles, given the Meiyu Front separates Arctic circulation from tropical circulation to the south, that could just be a consequence of contrast between equator and pole weakening under global warming. Which we knew already but didn't anticipate this particular devastating early consequence.
« Last Edit: June 30, 2021, 06:56:47 PM by A-Team »

Niall Dollard

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Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #610 on: June 30, 2021, 10:08:22 PM »
HYSPLIT Backward trajectory model run at 3 levels, 500m, 3000m and 5000m.

5000m : 9 days ago south of Japan and starts at a very low height. Makes a large rise on 23/6 to 25/6, then descends slowly as it loops in the high over B.C.

3000m : 9 days ago was also south of Japan but at a higher level. Stays high as it crosses Pacific and then descends slowly in loops around high over B.C.

500m : Unlike the upper air, 9 days ago this was NW of Hawaii. Rises as it approaches Canada and then descends in a curved trajectory down over B.C. 

ael

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Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #611 on: July 01, 2021, 05:46:58 AM »
Looks like there could be over 300 heat related deaths from the scorching heat in B.C.
No exact number available, but  sudden deaths are almost triple the usual amount

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/sudden-deaths-heat-wave-b-c-1.6086770

karl dubhe2

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Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #612 on: July 01, 2021, 10:51:33 AM »
The hottest town in Canada burnt last night.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/bc-wildfires-june-30-2021-1.6085919

I've driven thru that area in the past, even when the planet was cooler that part of the world got very dry in summer.

Shared Humanity

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Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #613 on: July 01, 2021, 05:04:29 PM »
The hottest town in Canada burnt last night.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/bc-wildfires-june-30-2021-1.6085919

I've driven thru that area in the past, even when the planet was cooler that part of the world got very dry in summer.

Are we having fun yet?

A-Team

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Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #614 on: July 01, 2021, 06:22:41 PM »
Quote
post mei-yu forest fire obliterates Lytton
I haven't seen an explanation for Lytton's historical heat records but expect it is primarily geographical (dry in rain shadow, receives downslope wind warming funneled down river drainages).

It does appear this particular lightning fire resulted from atmospheric convection associated with the mei-yu heat wave responsible. The heat wave alone would certainly make things worse regardless of how the fire started. Summer fire frequency is historically high in Lytton already so there's no 'control'.

There were an astonishing number of lightning strikes detected by the NA Lightning Detection Network between 3pm June 30 and 6am July 1 -- 710,117 of them but this set seems well north of Lytton. Few strikes start significant fires. [C Vagasky]

CBC meteorologist Johanna Wagstaffe has said that low-precipitation thunderstorms with strong winds, severe lightening and not much rain fueled many small fires. Wildfire conditions will be extreme for the rest of the week. The thunderstorms have been pyro-convective meaning the wildfires feed on themselves to become even stronger.

https://twitter.com/Weather_West  excellent coverage by D Swain

Here the question is how severe would the fire have been without the extraordinary heat wave, given the June timing and ongoing drought. High winds are really what caused the village to burn. Do the 73 kph winds represent a major enhancement over 'normal' seasonal fires?

Lytton is a low elevation inland village in British Columbia at the confluence of the Thompson and Fraser Rivers. June and July are the driest months; annual precip is low for the PacNW at 0.43m (16"), similar to the Sonoran Desert at Tucson AZ.

During summer heat waves, Lytton is often the hottest spot in Canada, despite being north of 50° in latitude. Due to dry summer air, temperatures frequently reach 35 C and occasionally 40 C.

Before the heat event, Lytton had the second-highest temperature ever recorded in Canada: 44.4 C (112 F) on 16 July 1941. Temperature records may go back to the mid-19th century.[wiki]

While Lytton is predisposed to hot dry summers, 49.6 C (121 F) on 29 June 2021 during the mei-yu heat wave is an uncharacteristically large jump in terms of record behavior.

It's easy to lose sight of the climate change involvement here, given dramatic temperature records, buildings burning, rivers flooding from abrupt snow melt and excess mortality. However that's what the response is all about.

There's not a lot that can be done to soften mesoscale convective complexes associated with the East Asian monsoon that gave rise to this event across the Pacific. The mei-yu has been studied for many decades along with the effects on it from ENSO and global warming. However the rainband itself remains largely unpredictable.

One consequence of probable mei-yu heat wave recurrence is that we can write off tree planting in western NA as a carbon storage strategy. Instead a huge sink will become a huge one-time source of emissions.

These vast coniferous forests don't go with a frequent fire regime and extended drought. Already tree mortality in NM, AZ, CA and CO has been very high and worse, there seems limited potential for ecological recovery.

The larger PacNW forests are a lot moister but large sections of them now seem at risk. Carbon credits for planting trees when they're just going to burn again?

https://www.azcentral.com/in-depth/news/local/arizona-environment/2021/06/28/arizona-wildfires-hotter-bigger-how-land-recover/7212038002/

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/jun/30/exxonmobil-lobbyists-oil-giant-carbon-tax-pr-ploy

https://blogs.reading.ac.uk/weather-and-climate-at-reading/2020/meiyu-baiu-changma-rains/

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00703-005-0125-z

https://eos.org/editor-highlights/meiyu-the-dragon-dictating-rainfall-variability-in-east-asia
« Last Edit: July 01, 2021, 07:08:50 PM by A-Team »

HapHazard

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Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #615 on: July 01, 2021, 08:14:53 PM »
Getting out of Lytton during the fire:

https://player.vimeo.com/video/569655524

jens

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Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #616 on: July 01, 2021, 09:29:03 PM »
A good example that during climate collapse there is nowhere to hide. Normally one would expect Canada to be among the better places to be during climate change, but see. You will be thrown surprises, when you least expect them. It would be a draw of luck, who gets to survive longer than others.

HapHazard

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Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #617 on: July 01, 2021, 10:16:47 PM »
Well, Canada is pretty safe, just not in certain areas. Huge place.

But living in a forested area isn't the safest place to be, going forward.

A-Team

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Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #618 on: July 01, 2021, 10:46:34 PM »
Canada* is largely uninhabited (and by implication uninhabitable) according to this population density map at wikipedia. Take away the tar sands and the auto industry and it would be far more extreme. Despite several centuries of colonization and open door immigration policies, the population is considerably less than two large cities in California.

As a climate refugium**, where would the food come from? Eight million sq km of granitic Canadian shield, the rest mainly cold steep mountains, doomed boreal forest, melting permafrost, or soggy bog.

New Zeeland, everyone's first choice of bolt hole, has already closed the door for the most part.

* Attn US readers: Canada is a separate country, largely owned by but not actually part of the US. Provinces are not US states. Canadians do not vote in US elections; not all see it as a jump station to the US.

** This word is not currently known to forum spellchecker.


If mei-yu heat waves return, how far north could it go? The initial ECMWF/GFS trajectories had the Rossby wave breaking farther south in northern California.  Perhaps with a larger jet stream meander the heat dome could end up farther north. Many of the aggravating secondary factors (adiabatic compression) might still be present.

Here the heat dome has drifted east with prevailing westerlies to affect Hudson Bay (and its ice). However reaching and persisting over the Arctic Ocean would involve additional and different physics.

Note in the Lytton town photos below, the buildings have mostly burned but the landscaping trees did not even lose their leaves. This is typical of California fires too (eg Paradise Camp Fire). It is a consequence of asphalt roof shingles, leaves in gutters, unscreened vents in attics, pressure differential, wind-borne torches and contagion by adjacent structures.

Another high wind story which here is a follow-up on mei-yu driven Rex blocking, not 'weather'.
« Last Edit: July 02, 2021, 04:22:59 PM by A-Team »

gerontocrat

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Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #619 on: July 01, 2021, 11:05:55 PM »
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

CraigsIsland

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Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #620 on: July 02, 2021, 01:21:30 AM »
This heat dome was nuts. In terms of an extreme event, this is certainly memorable! From the temperatures, lightning strikes, new fires and deaths, this event is sobering. As a Northern Californian in the valley (Sacramento), this does not bode well for any plans I had to move into a "better" climate for living. I'm pretty sensitive to air pollution and have been thinking about moving out of the range of wildfires/smoke and Washington was up there on my list. I need a re-think.

interstitial

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Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #621 on: July 02, 2021, 02:01:57 AM »
This heat dome was nuts. In terms of an extreme event, this is certainly memorable! From the temperatures, lightning strikes, new fires and deaths, this event is sobering. As a Northern Californian in the valley (Sacramento), this does not bode well for any plans I had to move into a "better" climate for living. I'm pretty sensitive to air pollution and have been thinking about moving out of the range of wildfires/smoke and Washington was up there on my list. I need a re-think.
I live in Washington every year Oregon or British Columbia gets wildfires we get the smoke. Usually it is not for very long a week or two but it has been getting worse.

Niall Dollard

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Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #622 on: July 02, 2021, 02:25:44 AM »
The hottest town in Canada burnt last night.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/bc-wildfires-june-30-2021-1.6085919

I've driven thru that area in the past, even when the planet was cooler that part of the world got very dry in summer.

Are we having fun yet?

Clearly not. What is the point of that comment SH ?

Sounds like something targeted at a WUWT audience.  Why post it here ?

HapHazard

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Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #623 on: July 02, 2021, 02:29:13 AM »
Lytton is mostly gone. (I'm snug as a bug in a rug in my safe haven, though)




Shared Humanity

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Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #624 on: July 02, 2021, 03:48:57 AM »
Very sad.

Sebastian Jones

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Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #625 on: July 02, 2021, 06:48:21 AM »
https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Present-day-location-of-the-treeline-in-northern-Canada-and-the-projected-treeline-shift_fig2_26774789

Off-topic maybe.

Without digging into the paper (I have plenty to read already...), the way the 10 July isotherm is moved N appears not to take into account the increasingly ice free Arctic Ocean.
I suspect that once the planet has warmed as much as this map indicates, the Arctic coasts will experience mild, ocean moderated weather.

dnem

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Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #626 on: July 02, 2021, 01:48:38 PM »

Are we having fun yet?

Clearly not. What is the point of that comment SH ?

Sounds like something targeted at a WUWT audience.  Why post it here ?
[/quote]

I took it as a rueful lament aimed at the forces of inaction in society at large, not "us" here at ASIF.

ritter

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Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #627 on: July 02, 2021, 03:26:55 PM »
This heat dome was nuts. In terms of an extreme event, this is certainly memorable! From the temperatures, lightning strikes, new fires and deaths, this event is sobering. As a Northern Californian in the valley (Sacramento), this does not bode well for any plans I had to move into a "better" climate for living. I'm pretty sensitive to air pollution and have been thinking about moving out of the range of wildfires/smoke and Washington was up there on my list. I need a re-think.

It has me rethinking things as well, at least where to invest meager funds into the "new" house. Insulation and effective cooling (mini splits) have moved way up the list. Our antiquated 40 year old heat pump has failed to start several times this week with resulting temps of up to 90* inside the house (I'm a bit west of you up in the hills so don't get your Delta breezes). Trees along the southern portion of the house are not possible due to fire danger. And I need to invest in a generator since we are now dependent on a well pump and pressure pump for water (just moved out of a small town and into the country). While country life will give me some advantages for climate change, it also has it's disadvantages. Nowhere will be spared.

Yeah, fun times, Shared Humanity.  :(

Shared Humanity

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Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #628 on: July 02, 2021, 03:44:03 PM »

Are we having fun yet?

Clearly not. What is the point of that comment SH ?

Sounds like something targeted at a WUWT audience.  Why post it here ?

I took it as a rueful lament aimed at the forces of inaction in society at large, not "us" here at ASIF.
[/quote]

It was a rueful lament. I spend much of my waking hours this way.

Aluminium

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Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #629 on: July 02, 2021, 03:58:42 PM »
This June reminds me 2010. Heatwaves everywhere in the Northern Hemisphere.

A-Team

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Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #630 on: July 02, 2021, 04:55:19 PM »
Quote
reminds me of 2010
It shouldn't. The wiki account cited provides an excellent but altogether different underlying mechanism related to ENSO extremes, completely inapplicable here as explained in #614, #618, #609, #599 and #590 above (which few are reading).

The two best wx phd communicators on a climate breakdown event reach 72k followers out of 1.35 billion english readers or 1:19000.
Quote
forces of inaction in society at large
Right. When the media doesn't "get it" -- and they haven't here despite being repeatedly spoon fed -- the general public and even sci citizens will be distracted by end drama and not draw what seems to be bigger lesson: this wasn't a 'heat wave', we've screwed up the East Asian monsoon with our emissions.

Instead the event will soon be hijacked by calls for the govt buying AC units and metal roofs for people of color, better funding and bigger firefighting crews, leasing air tankers from the private sector and intensifying forest management (log faster to get the cut out, sell to Asia).

None of this addresses what really happened or what needs to be done.

The condo collapse story is very similar: drawn-out daily body counts and random personal anecdotal clickbait with only the occasional mention of ongoing and unstoppable corrosive saline intrusion into the limestone driven by climate change (rising sea level) which will be thousands of times more significant to south Florida.
« Last Edit: July 02, 2021, 06:52:50 PM by A-Team »

Shared Humanity

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Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #631 on: July 02, 2021, 05:30:11 PM »


The condo collapse story is very similar: drawn-out daily body counts and random personal anecdotal clickbait with only the occasional mention of ongoing and unstoppable corrosive saline intrusion into the limestone driven by climate change (rising sea level) which will be thousands of times more significant to south Florida.

Over the next three decades, reinforced concrete condominium towers up and down the coast of Florida will have to be repaired and in some cases condemned due to salt water intrusion and ground subsidence caused by sea level rise.

Jeju-islander

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Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #632 on: July 02, 2021, 05:57:54 PM »
Here in South Korea the summer rainy season (changma) is just starting. It began raining a few hours ago. It is about ten days late this year. The change in summer monsoon that has been happening over the last few decades is  discussed in this article.
Interdecadal variation of Changma (Korean summer monsoon rainy season) retreat date in Korea

The article divides the last 30 years into two 15 year parts. 1985 - 1999 and 2000-2014 in order to contrast the changes. The summary is that the changes to the monsoon are related to reduced snow levels on the East Asian Continent in Spring.

Quote
The delayed CRD in the latter period was related to the snow in the spring season. Many regions of East Asia showed less snow in latter period, except regions around Lake Baikal. As a result, the East Asia continent had more severe heat from spring to July. The warming continent from spring to July undeveloped thermal gradient between continent and ocean, thereby forming a low-pressure system in East Asia continent and a high-pressure system in western North Pacific, resulting in the development of East Asian summer monsoon.


Difference in water equivalent accumulated snow depth in March to May. Contour interval is 2 kg/m2. Shaded areas are positive value. Comparing 1985 - 1999 with 2000-2014

vox_mundi

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Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #633 on: July 02, 2021, 06:55:12 PM »
At What Temperature Does the Weather Become a Problem?
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2021-07-temperature-weather-problem.html

... At high humidity, mild heat strain for humans begins at about 23 degrees Celsius and at low humidity at 27 degrees Celsius. "If people are exposed to temperatures above 32 degrees Celsius at extremely high humidity or above 45 degrees Celsius at extremely low humidity for a lengthy period of time, it can be fatal," says Prof. Asseng. "During extreme heat events with temperatures far above 40 degrees Celsius, such as those currently being observed on the U.S North West Coast and in Canada, people require technical support, for example in the form of air-conditioned spaces."

... "By the end of the century, 45 to 70 percent of the global land area could be affected by climate conditions in which humans cannot survive without technological support, such as air conditioning. Currently, it's 12 percent," says Prof. Asseng. This means that in the future, 44 to 75 percent of the human population will be chronically stressed by heat. A similar increase in heat stress is expected for livestock, poultry, agricultural crops and other living organisms.

... In cattle and pigs, heat strain occurs at 24 degrees Celsius with high humidity and at 29 degrees Celsius with low humidity. The milk yield from cows can decrease by 10 to 20 percent when exposed to heat stress, and the fattening performance in pigs is also reduced. The comfortable temperature range for poultry is 15 to 20 degrees. Chickens experience mild heat strain at 30 degrees Celsius. At 37 degrees Celsius and above, they experience severe heat stress and their egg laying rate declines.

Senthold Asseng et al, The upper temperature thresholds of life, The Lancet Planetary Health (2021).
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanplh/article/PIIS2542-5196(21)00079-6/fulltext
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― anonymous

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Niall Dollard

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Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #634 on: July 02, 2021, 07:39:17 PM »


It was a rueful lament. I spend much of my waking hours this way.

I understand. Thanks for explaining.

It's so heartbreaking for such small communities.

Tor Bejnar

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Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #635 on: July 02, 2021, 11:40:24 PM »
We get under A-Team's collar and they return the favor!  :'(

Their post #590 includes
Quote
It's fair to say no climate model ever envisioned an event this extreme (hotter than peak Las Vegas) for the marine-influenced Pacific Northwest. It has come as a total surprise. Worse, even having analyzed this particular event, no one has the slightest idea if it is the harbinger of a new pattern.
His post #599 includes
Quote
... some of the handwaving in #590 needs to be replaced by detailed calculations showing where, when and why all this excessive heat came into the picture.

...

Climate attribution studies are underway but by their probabilistic nature will be over the heads of ordinary people (and most scientists). Rare events (perfect storms) do occur but they don't happen twice (over a short time frame). So if this situation persists or is followed by another, 'weather' is ruled out: it can only be climate change of pattern.
So we can ignore some of post 590 and some of the good work being done will be over our heads.  But it is likely to be caused by climate change.

Their post 609 includes
Quote
The best analysis (once again) of the unprecedented PacNW heat wave has been by Philippe Papin at NWS' NHC. He walked back the 'antecedent synoptic pattern' to unusual Meiyu Front convection in China whose zonal potential vorticity energized cyclogenesis in an atmospheric jet (annotated frames of mp4 below).

https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1407849632621764610
https://tinyurl.com/y6v8uj66 B Hensen J Masters overview
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meiyu_front good account

This analysis is necessarily quantitatively correct (the main issue in extreme events) because Papin dug through the hourly ECMWF and GFS products to see how their ensembles got it consistently correct seven days ahead. (NWS held these back to avoid 'windshield wiper' weather forecasts.)

That semi-predictive accuracy (it includes a lot of nrt data) has been a major source of astonishment in the wx scientific community, ie the era of human participation in weather analysis is about over -- we are reduced to putting text overlays on graphics and authoring auto-commentary.

It is rather amazing that the RBW (breaking of Rossby wave over BC) could be accurate despite the jet being 6 sigma off the usual. This speaks to correct internal portrayal of difficult atmospheric physics in these highly evolved algorithms.
This sounds to me like there was a model that was incredibly accurate that the National Weather Service held back.  (I would have intuited "windshield wiper weather" to be wet, not hot, but I've been led to expect this would be over my head; I guess it is!)

Their post 614 includes
Quote
Here the question is how severe would the fire have been without the extraordinary heat wave, given the June timing and ongoing drought. High winds are really what caused the village to burn. Do the 73 kph winds represent a major enhancement over 'normal' seasonal fires?

...
During summer heat waves, Lytton is often the hottest spot in Canada, despite being north of 50° in latitude. Due to dry summer air, temperatures frequently reach 35 C and occasionally 40 C.

...
While Lytton is predisposed to hot dry summers, 49.6 C (121 F) on 29 June 2021 during the mei-yu heat wave is an uncharacteristically large jump in terms of record behavior.

It's easy to lose sight of the climate change involvement here, given dramatic temperature records, buildings burning, rivers flooding from abrupt snow melt and excess mortality. However that's what the response is all about.

...
One consequence of probable mei-yu heat wave recurrence is that we can write off tree planting in western NA as a carbon storage strategy. Instead a huge sink will become a huge one-time source of emissions.
Their post 618 includes
Quote
* Attn US readers: Canada is a separate country, largely owned by but not actually part of the US. Provinces are not US states. Canadians do not vote in US elections; not all see it as a jump station to the US.

...
[Lytton fire:] Another high wind story which here is a follow-up on mei-yu driven Rex blocking, not 'weather'.
So A-Team really wants us to pick up on the condescension, I guess.  Curious they contend we do not read their posts (how would they know?) while they only recommend their own for re-visiting.   Hmmm (do they read ours?)

Complaining about A-Team's attitude aside, A-Team really does write many very insightful posts that we should read and revisit.

A-Team's comment that it was wind that primarily destroyed Lytton, not heat, reminds me of the very cold* winter morning I stood looking out the kitchen window in the near-pitch dark and the neighbor's house looked odd - some red glow and no roof line, specifically.  I asked my mom what she thought and she responded, "Didn't you hear the fire engines arrive last night?"  Anyway, c. -10F (-25C) cold doesn't particularly slow a fire (but the cold prevented the firetruck's pumps from working).**  Another year, another fire, this starting in different neighbor's back yard - trash burning in a 55 gal. steel drum [44 gal. drum for the British among us] - was 'picked up' by gusty wind, and burned a dozen or so acres (half as many hectares) of grass and woodland (but mostly just the grass under the trees) - August is 'always' dry in the US Southwest, and afternoons are often gusty (orographic clouds and all that).  Did I mention "wind"?


* - cold - the coldest night that week got down to -23F (-30C) at our house.
** - Adobe walls were not seriously damaged and the totally-gutted-house was rebuilt.  (They had a brand new wood cook stove that obviously wasn't installed properly.  Nobody was physically hurt.)
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things because "we cannot negotiate with the melting point of ice"

oren

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Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #636 on: July 03, 2021, 12:16:49 AM »
For the record, I thought A-Team's posts in this thread were very insightful, as I have not seen mention of these attribution explanations anywhere else.  I did think "which few are reading" was probably wrong in the context of this forum, though true for the general population.

Shared Humanity

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Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #637 on: July 03, 2021, 07:51:25 PM »
For the record, I thought A-Team's posts in this thread were very insightful, as I have not seen mention of these attribution explanations anywhere else.  I did think "which few are reading" was probably wrong in the context of this forum, though true for the general population.

I always read A-Team's comments. There are others here who get the same attention from me. Some? Not so much. I will admit that I do not understand all that they post as many comments assume a level of knowledge/understanding I do not possess. I never regret reading his comments but was also bothered by the dismissive "which few are reading".

Now if Thomas Barlowe were to suddenly reappear and accuse me of not reading his comments, I'd consider this a mark of being an honorable person.

A-Team

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Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #638 on: July 04, 2021, 03:30:25 AM »
To clarify, the causal connection between a specific surge in the East Asian Monsoon and an extreme PacNW heat wave a week later is not attribution — it is just a good hurricane analyst taking ten minutes to capture and interpret ECMWF hindcast animations before moving on to cover Elsa and secondary condo collapse.

The degree to which this heat wave can be attributed to the effects of climate change on the EAM is complex and has not yet been determined. We’d like to know if these heat waves are going to be a quasi annual June and July occurrence and if climate change is causing them.

People here know the difference between climate and weather but this event was something different from natural variation (which will continue into the future though differently). Heat waves per se are not unusual. However one was so extreme in so many ways in that it fell too many sigma (std dev) outside the probability distribution applicable to PacNW weather history.

Written records for the East Asian Monsoon go back several thousand years, mostly addressing onset date, seasonal winds, rainfall intensity and rainband geographic extent. EAM is related to but distinct from SEAM, the more familiar southeast Asian monsoon of India.

People are still arguing whether ‘monsoon’ is appropriate for the southwestern US rainy season — which started yesterday but was a non-soon last summer. As noted earlier, the EAM is called meiyu-baiu-changma in China, Japan and Korea respectively (how to pronounce?).

Attribution analysis of one-off events is a fairly new technical topic within climate change. The need comes up all the time: did hurricane such-and-such veer or stall because of it, did it cause Atlantic inflows past Svalbard to slow last year, is the 20-year AZ drought within natural variation, would a GAC2012 repeat this August be surprising, was the late June jet stream wobble over BC driven, is solar cycle 25 affecting ENSO, and so on. It is different from and perhaps more difficult than characterizing future climate directions.

Dissecting out the climate change causal component for a one-time extreme event from ordinary weather weirdness seems to fly in the face of a need for a probabilistic approach. However it’s something climate scientists would like to have in responding to questions from reporters during breaking events.

Whether it can be done persuasively in the case of this heat wave remains to be seen. It may very well have been in combination with ‘perfect storm’ coincidences and locally aggravating conditions.

Impact of Anthropogenic Climate Change on the East Asian Summer Monsoon
C Burke and P Stott 15 Jul 2017
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0892.1 open source 26 cites

The East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) is important for bringing rainfall to large areas of China. Historically, variations in the EASM have had major impacts including flooding and drought. The authors present an analysis of the impact of anthropogenic climate change on EASM rainfall in eastern China using a newly updated attribution system. The results suggest that anthropogenic climate change has led to an overall decrease in total monsoon rainfall over the past 65 years and an increased number of dry days.

However, the model also predicts that anthropogenic forcings have caused the most extreme heavy rainfall events to become shorter in duration and more intense. With the potential for future changes in aerosol and greenhouse gas emissions, historical trends in monsoon rainfall may not be indicative of future changes, although extreme rainfall is projected to increase over East Asia with continued warming in the region.

Attribution of extreme precipitation in the lower reaches of the Yangtze River during May 2016
Chunxiang Liet al
https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aa9691/meta 2018 open source

May 2016 was the third wettest May on record since 1961 over central eastern China based on station observations, with total monthly rainfall 40% more than the climatological mean for 1961–2013. Accompanying disasters such as waterlogging, landslides and debris flow struck part of the lower reaches of the Yangtze River. Causal influence of anthropogenic forcings on this event is investigated using the newly updated Met Office Hadley Centre system for attribution of extreme weather and climate events. Results indicate that there is a significant increase in May 2016 rainfall in model simulations relative to the climatological period, but this increase is largely attributable to natural variability. El Niño years have been found to be correlated with extreme rainfall in the Yangtze River region in previous studies—the strong El Niño of 2015–2016 may account for the extreme precipitation event in 2016. However, on smaller spatial scales we find that anthropogenic forcing has likely played a role in increasing the risk of extreme rainfall to the north of the Yangtze

A review of climate change attribution studies
P Zhai, B Zhou, Y Chen
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s13351-018-8041-6  2018 Cited by 34

This paper reviews recent progress in climate change attribution studies. The focus is on the
attribution of observed long-term changes in surface temperature, precipitation, circulation,
and extremes, as well as that of specific extreme weather and climate events. .. In terms of extreme weather and climate events, it is clear that attribution studies have provided important new insights into the changes in the intensity or frequency of some of these events caused by anthropogenic climate change. The framing of the research question, the methods selected, and the model and statistical methods used all have influences on the results and conclusions drawn in an event attribution study.

Climate change expected to shift location of East Asian Monsoons
Warming climate could lead to profound changes in the subtropical climate
Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory November 13, 2019
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2019/11/191113075116.htm Nature Climate Change

The Asian monsoon is closely linked to a planetary-scale tropical air flow which, according to a new study, will most likely shift geographically as the climate continues to warm, resulting in less rainfall in certain regions. Researchers used global climate models to study the Hadley cell. Results suggest that the East Asian Monsoon will shift geographically as the climate continues to warm, and that enhanced warming at the equator will drive this shift.

The Hadley cell consists of two components -- moist air that rises at the equator, or the deep tropics, causing heavy precipitation during monsoons, and dry air that descends in the subtropics on either side of the equator, resulting in dry conditions in the subtropics. Under anthropogenic warming, the dry subtropical part will expand towards the north and south poles, while the moist deep tropical part will get smaller, according to global climate models. The researchers used a worst-case climate change scenario defined by the IPCC to model the climate in the last 30 years of the 21st century.

Large-Scale Dynamics of the Meiyu-Baiu Rainband: Environmental Forcing by the Westerly Jet
Takeaki Sampe and Shang-Ping Xie Jan 2010  cited by 356!
https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/23/1/2009jcli3128.1.xml

Meiyu-baiu is the major rainy season from central China to Japan brought by a zonally elongated rainband from June to mid-July. Large-scale characteristics and environmental forcing of this important phenomenon are investigated based on a reanalysis dataset. The meiyu-baiu rainband is accompanied by a trough of sea level pressure, horizontal shears, and sharp moisture gradients near the surface, a westerly jet tilted northward with height, and large northeastward moisture transport from the south.

The analysis here reveals the westerly jet as an important culprit for meiyu-baiu. Along the rainband, mean ascending motion corresponds well with a band of warm horizontal temperature advection in the midtroposphere throughout summer. This adiabatic induction of upward motion originates from the advection of warm air by the westerlies from the eastern flank of the Tibetan Plateau.

The ascending motion both induces convection and is enhanced by the resultant condensational heating. The westerly jet anchors the meiyu-baiu rainband also by steering transient eddies, creating periods conducive to convection through convective instability and adiabatic updrafts. Indeed, in meiyu-baiu, the probability distribution of convective instability shows large spreads and is strongly skewed, with a sharp cutoff on the unstable side resulting from the effective removal of instability by convection.

Thus, active weather disturbances in the westerly waveguide explain a paradox that convection is active in the meiyu-baiu rainband while mean convective instability is significantly higher to the south over the subtropical North Pacific warm pool.
« Last Edit: July 04, 2021, 04:00:15 PM by A-Team »

KiwiGriff

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Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #639 on: July 04, 2021, 04:14:18 AM »
One wonders at the ecological damage the heatwave in Canada has done.
Not just invertebrate but to all life forms,
A 5 sigma event is going compromise the viability of  life forms from  fungi to larger mammals.
The ecology of the region has not evolved to cope with an approximately 1 in 3.5 million extreme.

A team
Thanks for the work you have put in to  be able to construct your comments.
I am here above all else to learn.
Your comments  are a highly valued addition to this forum.

CO2 is at a level as high as  the Pliocene.
It follows.
We will witness weather events not seen on earth in the last about 4,000,000 years become the new normal. A new normal not seen Since Hominina first evolved .
« Last Edit: July 04, 2021, 04:30:53 AM by KiwiGriff »
Animals can be driven crazy by placing too many in too small a pen. Homo sapiens is the only animal that voluntarily does this to himself.
Notebooks of Lazarus Long.
Robert Heinlein.

Brigantine

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Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #640 on: July 04, 2021, 04:34:01 AM »
Re Canada's all time max temp record increasing from 45°C to 49.6°C

Wikipedia: List of weather records

Here are some countries/continents with all time max temp records 45°C < X < 49.6°C

Continents:
  • 48.9°C South America (Argentina)
  • 48.0°C Europe (Greece)
Countries:
  • 49.5°C Niger
  • 49.4°C Syria
  • 49.1°C Kazakhstan
  • 49.0°C Turkey
  • 48.9°C Argentina
  • 48.2°C Mauritania
  • 48.0°C Greece
  • 48.0°C Tajikistan
  • 48.0°C Mali
  • 47.6°C Chad
  • 47.4°C Portugal
  • 47.4°C Eswatini (Swailand)
  • 47.3°C Spain
  • 47.2°C Burkina Faso
  • 47.2°C Myanmar
  • 47.0°C Italy
  • 46.7°C Bolivia
  • 46.4°C Nigeria
  • 46.4°C Nepal
  • 46.2°C Bosnia
  • 46.2°C Cyprus
  • 46.0°C France
  • 46°C Azerbaijan
  • 45.8°C Central African Republic
  • 45.7°C North Macedonia
  • 45.6°C Uzbekistan
  • 45.5°C Namibia
  • 45.4°C Russia
  • 45.2°C Bulgaria
  • 45.1°C Bangladesh
« Last Edit: July 04, 2021, 05:19:22 AM by Brigantine »

etienne

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Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #641 on: July 04, 2021, 07:22:34 AM »
Results indicate that there is a significant increase in May 2016 rainfall in model simulations relative to the climatological period, but this increase is largely attributable to natural variability. El Niño years have been found to be correlated with extreme rainfall in the Yangtze River region in previous studies—the strong El Niño of 2015–2016 may account for the extreme precipitation event in 2016. However, on smaller spatial scales we find that anthropogenic forcing has likely played a role in increasing the risk of extreme rainfall to the north of the Yangtze
I wonder if these methods don't downplay the impact of climate change. In this example, isn't a strong Nino not also related to it? The work is interesting and useful, but making conclusions is always difficult when everything is interconnected. I still believe that statistical studies is the best way to assert climate change. Of course, I am not an expert.

Shared Humanity

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Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #642 on: July 04, 2021, 02:28:59 PM »
The number of sudden deaths in British Columbia that have now been attributed to the heatwave has climbed to 719.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/heat-wave-719-deaths-1.6088793

The final tally will be much higher.

A-Team

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Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #643 on: July 04, 2021, 09:33:45 PM »
Quote
One wonders at the ecological damage the heatwave in Canada has done.
Massive die-off of bird nestlings and also bats got reported but that would just be the start (doesn’t include the fires).There were maybe 3 million hectares under the heat dome. This wasn’t IPCC-type incremental warming so climate change attribution awaits analysis of the East Asian Monsoon. Starvation of 61,000 reindeer from rain freezing on lichen in autumn 2016 did get an attribution to climate change.

https://theconversation.com/mass-starvation-of-reindeer-linked-to-climate-change-and-habitat-loss-121452

This comes up quite often in climate models and in the forums: Advancing temperatures, whether as a wave or trend, advance the boreal tree line which in turn is beneficial (drawdown sink of CO2 by trees will mitigate emissions) or for later snow retention.

Click below to see a large version of the 'biogeoclimactic vegetation map" of Canada -- it is quite well done and will be useful later for heat dome, wildfire, permafrost melt and methane emission overlays.

It turns out the treeline is not keeping up with the climate change and indeed may not be advancing at all. How did so many modelers get this so wrong for so long?

No Treeline Advance Over the Last 50 Years in Subarctic Western and Central Canada and the Problem of Vegetation Misclassification in Remotely Sensed Data
KP Timoney, S Mamet  24 April 2020
https://doi.org/10.1080/11956860.2019.1698258

In this study we examined (1) whether there has been significant tree cover change over the period 1960–2010 in a 960,000 km2 subarctic study region in western and central Canada, and (2) the degree to which Global Forest Change (GFC) tree cover data agree with other datasets. We compared GFC tree cover to cover estimates from air photos (c. 1960), ground-level plot data (c. 1982–84), annotated low-level oblique photographs (c. 2005–09), and air photo footprints on the World Imagery Base Map (c. 2010). Tree cover changes since 1960 varied by physiographic and ecological regions. Afforestation was modest to non-significant depending on the region. We observed no evidence of northward tree migration. An increase in the areal extent of burned forests, mostly in areas south of the forest-tundra, was the largest change detected. We documented systematic discrepancies between our tree cover estimates and GFC data. GFC underestimates of tree cover typically occurred in areas of low tree density. Areas where GFC data overestimated tree cover were common, especially near the northern limits of trees and in areas dominated by dense or tall shrubs. Predictions of climate-driven vegetation response derived solely from remotely sensed data may not be reliable.

Is subarctic forest advance able to keep pace with climate change?
WG Rees and A Hofgaard  13 April 2020
https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15113C

Recent climate warming and scenarios for further warming have led to expectations of rapid movement of ecological boundaries. Here we focus on the circumarctic forest–tundra ecotone (FTE), which represents an important bioclimatic zone with feedbacks from forest advance and corresponding tundra disappearance (up to 50% loss predicted this century) driving widespread ecological and climatic changes. We address FTE advance and climate history relations over the 20th century, using FTE response data from 151 sites across the circumarctic area and site-specific climate data.  Poleward latitudinal advance rates differed significantly among regions, being smallest in Eastern Canada (~10 m/year) and largest in Western Eurasia (~100 m/year). These rates were 1–2 orders of magnitude smaller than expected if vegetation distribution remained in equilibrium with climate.

Watching Treeline Advances In Canada’s Arctic
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/01/090122162332.htm  January 23, 2009

It’s timely to consider how trees are faring on the highest mountain slopes and at the northern treeline. In such extreme environments, oddly contorted forms of pine, spruce, birch and fir are created by blasting winds and inhospitable soils. These ‘krumholz’ – stunted trees that look more like shrubs – are markers that will enable scientists to assess the impact of climate change.

Dr. Karen Harper, project leader Arctic Treeline Advance is an expert in the dynamics of plant communities and has previously studied the forest edge along clearcuts, lakeshores and wildfires. She attempts to understand how the forest edges forward into the treeless tundra. Dr. Harper became intimately acquainted with the harsh realities of this habitat during field work for her doctoral studies on Canadian boreal forests.

“The flies! Don’t even think about it,” says Dr. Harper, shaking her head. At one point in northern Alberta, a cloud of mosquitoes, midges and blackflies found her inventing ways to escape the onslaught. A bug jacket with an enclosed mesh hood provided the first line of defense. Next, as her hands and feet became the insects’ favored target, she added gloves and thick socks. Still when she moved, flies would razor in on a thin line between gloves and jacket. Finally, in desperation, she began cutting up her socks to slide over her arms for an extra layer of protection. All that clothing added to the ambience of hiking in 30ºC weather.  [Followed by 9 long months of dark cold winter -- refugium for US population?]
« Last Edit: July 05, 2021, 03:09:12 PM by A-Team »

Niall Dollard

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Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #644 on: July 05, 2021, 12:08:56 PM »
Several sites above the Arctic Circle in Scandinavia at 30° C at 9 UTC today. Including Kevo at almost 70 N.

Niall Dollard

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Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #645 on: July 05, 2021, 01:53:57 PM »
Kiruna, Sweden recorded its warmest day on record yesterday. Max of 30.3 C

Kevo Finland was at 33.3 C at 11 UTC today. That's at latitude 69.75 N

blu_ice

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Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #646 on: July 05, 2021, 07:34:34 PM »
Kevo improved the local record later in the afternoon: 33.5 C. Also the northernmost location in Finland, Nuorgam, made a new local record of 32.2 C.

Finland had a record hot June despite cooler temps in the northern parts of the country. They are now taking it back with interest, and all forecasts are predicting sunny and hot weather to continue in July.

vox_mundi

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Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #647 on: July 08, 2021, 01:09:17 PM »
‘Heat Dome’ Probably Killed 1 Billion Marine Animals On Canada Coast, Experts Say
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/jul/08/heat-dome-canada-pacific-northwest-animal-deaths

More than 1 billion marine animals along Canada’s Pacific coast are likely to have died from last week’s record heatwave, experts warn, highlighting the vulnerability of ecosystems unaccustomed to extreme temperatures.

Mussels, anemones, starfish cooked alive.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― anonymous

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

A-Team

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Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #648 on: July 08, 2021, 06:27:20 PM »
The first ‘climate change attribution’ paper is out in draft for the PacNW record heat dome, though not on an academic pre-print server, much less submitted to a journal or approved by peer-review, perhaps balanced by its appearance so soon after the event (which fosters scientific discussion). The 37-page technical account by 21 authors from 8 countries is accompanied by a well-written popular account and discussion of overall context of attribution methods.

It’s worth a good look as the international consortium is considering many worldwide extreme events and applying established methods for determining whether or not a climate change angle is partly responsible.

Importantly, they cite cases of ‘bad luck weather’ that cannot be attributed to global warming, ie could plausibly have occurred as natural variation during pre-industrial conditions (or even now with 1.2ºC). Thus the analysis is politically neutral to that extent.

Without rapid turn-around and credible documentation, the role of climate change will not get a mention in the press because it has already moved on to covering human drama of the next disaster.

https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/
https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/western-north-american-extreme-heat-virtually-impossible-without-human-caused-climate-change/
https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/wp-content/uploads/NW-US-extreme-heat-2021-scientific-report-WWA.pdf
https://apnews.com/article/climate-climate-change-archive-f4a9ebb1c44f41c08cdc911d0ef5c416
http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display_alt.cgi?a=npac_250
https://www.weathernerds.org/models/gem.html

Although the heat wave never would have happened without a mesoscale convective systems excursion of East Asian monsoon seven days earlier and the Rossby wave breaking into a persistent anticyclonic closed low over BC, synoptic considerations did not get a mention in the paper: it was narrowly limited to local weather.

This misses the solution side: whereas nothing can be done about offshore lows, mountain ranges and dry-adiabatic compression, the emission reduction effort has to be commensurate with reduction of global warming effects on the monsoon. Otherwise the heat dome will simply repeat and maybe worsen inexplicably.

The paper notes current climate models had no applicable predicability here so provide no explanation and cannot be relied on for future heat dome recurrence. (As mentioned earlier, ECMWF/GFS worked extremely well but are limited to a week out.)

Whatever the emphasis, climate change attribution here will have to cover a lot of the same ground: std deviations of pressure, abrupt departure of temperature records, omega blocking, persistence of multiple rounds and so on. This paper provides all that in great detail. Non-synoptic analysis estimates return at 5-10 years.

The authors usefully refuted the oft-posited ’dry soil’ contribution to elevating temperatures; that may well be applicable to California’s situation but the PacNW areas affected here had received above-normal moisture in June. Quite a few commenting meteorologists really had not the slightest idea where the PacNW is even located. Yet proximity to ocean, latitude relative to jet stream meander and mountain terrain are in fact very relevant, not just to development of this even but also to propensity of recurrence.

Oddly recurrence was already discussed by Rossby in his 1939 classic (which credits Bjerknes 1937 for discovery of Rossby waves). Historically, a ‘“significant advance in the interpretation of meteorological data followed the identification of Rossby waves in the upper stratosphere and the recognition that local weather disturbances are intrinsically tied to these global-scale weather patterns. This determination led to significant advances in short-, mid-, and long-term forecasting skill and a perception that terrestrial storms, once considered to be intrinsically unpredictable, conceptually transitioned to an intermittent part of a global system that was predictable to an acceptable degree.”

Relation between variations in the intensity of the zonal circulation of the atmosphere and the semi-permanent centers of action.
CG Rossby
J. Mar. Res. 2, 38–55. 1939 cited by 1351
https://peabody.yale.edu/sites/default/files/documents/scientific-publications/jmr02-01-06-CG_ROSSBYetal.pdf

"Eddies of this type also represent the most outstanding feature of the daily isentropic charts for the summer season; the fact that the mean monthly charts show the same structure proves that the individual eddies are very nearly stationary and that they frequently regenerate in certain preferred locations."

Defender and Expositor of the Bergen Methods of Synoptic Analysis: Significance, History, and Translation of Bergeron’s (1928) “Three-Dimensionally Combining Synoptic Analysis”
DM Schultz et all
https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/bams/101/12/BAMS-D-20-0021.1.xml  2020 account of Bergen school of meteorology

https://tinyurl.com/c34z6htr PacNW meteorology

Perhaps a better approach, one that would be taken by mainstream physicists, centers on the energy budget. Some wx folks have made factually incorrect or irrelevant statements on where the extreme surface heat (aka energy) came from. It's a conserved quantity so the gain has to be sourced from a loss somewhere else.

Yes near-solstice sun provides long days of high insolation energy at 50ºN, yes high pressure leads to clear skies so almost all that sunlight warms the ground which then warms surface air, yes heat dome sinking and downslope winds convert gravitational potential energy to heat, no the numbers don't add up.

All of the factors mentioned occur routinely in the PacNW without triggering notable heat waves much less records. This event not only set remarkable records all over, more importantly they were huge departures from the past.

A couple of wx scientists noted this and invoked, without quantification, the necessity of multiple rounds of dry-adiabatic compression as the difference. However that requires energy input from somewhere that isn't normally available. Without sourcing that unusual input, it's not an explanation.

Perhaps the real record -- and critical target for climate change attribution -- lies here, not so much in downstream 'perfect storm' coincidences lining up though those had a role.

The story must begin synoptically, with sun-energized mesoscale convection in the East Asian Monsoon creating a fast moist jet further energized by Pacific Ocean structures as it transited, with its Rossby wave then breaking into a closed low of high angular momentum whose persistence enabled the multiple rounds of heating, as P Papin outlined early on twitter.

An undiscussed issue so far is climate change reducing the equator - pole temperature gradient, causing the jet stream to slow and meander farther north on its excursions, leading to heat dome persistence, Omega blocking is a consequence, not a cause.

The quantitative details are then fully implicit in the ECMWF/GFS algorithms which led to seven days of forecasts which never blinked from correctly calling this off-the-wall event.
« Last Edit: July 09, 2021, 04:17:22 PM by A-Team »

Rodius

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Re: Heatwaves
« Reply #649 on: July 09, 2021, 05:36:45 AM »
Re Canada's all time max temp record increasing from 45°C to 49.6°C

Wikipedia: List of weather records

Here are some countries/continents with all time max temp records 45°C < X < 49.6°C

Continents:
  • 48.9°C South America (Argentina)
  • 48.0°C Europe (Greece)
Countries:
  • 49.5°C Niger
  • 49.4°C Syria
  • 49.1°C Kazakhstan
  • 49.0°C Turkey
  • 48.9°C Argentina
  • 48.2°C Mauritania
  • 48.0°C Greece
  • 48.0°C Tajikistan
  • 48.0°C Mali
  • 47.6°C Chad
  • 47.4°C Portugal
  • 47.4°C Eswatini (Swailand)
  • 47.3°C Spain
  • 47.2°C Burkina Faso
  • 47.2°C Myanmar
  • 47.0°C Italy
  • 46.7°C Bolivia
  • 46.4°C Nigeria
  • 46.4°C Nepal
  • 46.2°C Bosnia
  • 46.2°C Cyprus
  • 46.0°C France
  • 46°C Azerbaijan
  • 45.8°C Central African Republic
  • 45.7°C North Macedonia
  • 45.6°C Uzbekistan
  • 45.5°C Namibia
  • 45.4°C Russia
  • 45.2°C Bulgaria
  • 45.1°C Bangladesh

How is Australia not listed there lol?

50.7°C
Side note: I got stuck in 47.8°C once, outside in the bush. I could barely walk in the heat but forced myself to find a stream and lay down in it for 5 hours to survive.