JAXA 2018 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: August poll

[DavidR]

The poll is for the minimum Daily sea ice extent in 2018 as measured by JAXA. There is another poll for the NSIDC September Average.

Jaxa September minimums for the past 15  years have been:

2003     5933760
2004     5683663
2005     5179300
2006     5625046
2007     4065739
2008     4500623
2009     5054055
2010     4622092
2011     4269199
2012     3177455
2013     4809288
2014     4884120
2015     4257003
2016     4017264
2017     4472225

I  have attached a graph showing the declines from August 1st to minimum for the past  15 years.

In the July poll 72 votes were cast and the average prediction was 4086806.  This is approximately  300K  below the NSIDC September Average poll figure. The average difference between the two measure since 2005 is approximately 300K. 

[oren]

I will stick to my previous votes and continue with 3.75-4.25.

[Paddy]

Going for "similar to 2015" so 4.0 to 4.5. Definitely planning to review in 12 days or so however.

[Stephan]

Have chosen the bin 4.25 to 4.75 mio as in previous polls.

[Dharma Rupa]

Since I doubt the min will be in September I see no reason to vote.

[DavidR]

Since I doubt the min will be in September I see no reason to vote.

There will be a minimum in September even if it isn't the annual minimum.  Every annual minimum since my  records began has occurred between Sept 8th and Sept 21st so a minimum outside September would be really different!

[Peter Ellis]

Since I doubt the min will be in September I see no reason to vote.

what

[magnamentis]

Since I doubt the min will be in September I see no reason to vote.

considering the possibility of a generally late minimum and considering the possibility of a 10 days arctic wide storm it would theoretically be possible to see an october minimum but then i think it's clear that under normal circumstances this won't happen due to refreeze in the cab after the sun has totally lost it's spell (energy input above 80N wise)

doubts are no reason to no have an opinion, after all i think 90% or more of all voters have doubts whether it will be one up or down of their vote i think.

[jdallen]

Based on what we're seeing play out on the Pacific side I've dropped a bucket from 4.25-4.75 down to 4.0-4.5

I wouldn't be surprised if I end up coming in high.

[Dharma Rupa]

Since I doubt the min will be in September I see no reason to vote.

considering the possibility of a generally late minimum and considering the possibility of a 10 days arctic wide storm it would theoretically be possible to see an october minimum but then i think it's clear that under normal circumstances this won't happen due to refreeze in the cab after the sun has totally lost it's spell (energy input above 80N wise)

doubts are no reason to no have an opinion, after all i think 90% or more of all voters have doubts whether it will be one up or down of their vote i think.

At some point the fog is going to roll in and the Arctic Cell will disappear.  It could be just as well this year as any.

When the end comes it won't matter what time of year it is.

[magnamentis]

Since I doubt the min will be in September I see no reason to vote.

considering the possibility of a generally late minimum and considering the possibility of a 10 days arctic wide storm it would theoretically be possible to see an october minimum but then i think it's clear that under normal circumstances this won't happen due to refreeze in the cab after the sun has totally lost it's spell (energy input above 80N wise)

doubts are no reason to no have an opinion, after all i think 90% or more of all voters have doubts whether it will be one up or down of their vote i think.

At some point the fog is going to roll in and the Arctic Cell will disappear.  It could be just as well this year as any.

When the end comes it won't matter what time of year it is.

ahh... sorry, forgot that you like "End Time Scenarios" so much

i hope that you're aware that each exaggeration that won't become true will feed the deniers.
exactly the way no-one believes in dying forests anymore after they were announced to be dead
well before the year 2000

[Dharma Rupa]

Since I doubt the min will be in September I see no reason to vote.

considering the possibility of a generally late minimum and considering the possibility of a 10 days arctic wide storm it would theoretically be possible to see an october minimum but then i think it's clear that under normal circumstances this won't happen due to refreeze in the cab after the sun has totally lost it's spell (energy input above 80N wise)

doubts are no reason to no have an opinion, after all i think 90% or more of all voters have doubts whether it will be one up or down of their vote i think.

At some point the fog is going to roll in and the Arctic Cell will disappear.  It could be just as well this year as any.

When the end comes it won't matter what time of year it is.

ahh... sorry, forgot that you like "End Time Scenarios" so much

i hope that you're aware that each exaggeration that won't become true will feed the deniers.
exactly the way no-one believes in dying forests anymore after they were announced to be dead
well before the year 2000

I don't care about the deniers at all.  I just think there is plenty of geological evidence that climate change is sudden, not gradual.

[magnamentis]

Since I doubt the min will be in September I see no reason to vote.

considering the possibility of a generally late minimum and considering the possibility of a 10 days arctic wide storm it would theoretically be possible to see an october minimum but then i think it's clear that under normal circumstances this won't happen due to refreeze in the cab after the sun has totally lost it's spell (energy input above 80N wise)

doubts are no reason to no have an opinion, after all i think 90% or more of all voters have doubts whether it will be one up or down of their vote i think.

At some point the fog is going to roll in and the Arctic Cell will disappear.  It could be just as well this year as any.

When the end comes it won't matter what time of year it is.

ahh... sorry, forgot that you like "End Time Scenarios" so much

i hope that you're aware that each exaggeration that won't become true will feed the deniers.
exactly the way no-one believes in dying forests anymore after they were announced to be dead
well before the year 2000

I don't care about the deniers at all.  I just think there is plenty of geological evidence that climate change is sudden, not gradual.

not caring about opposing forces that are a majority or at least yield the most economic and political power is a neglect that is as bad as denying itself.

it's like witnessing an accident and not helping the victims i.e. through first aid and calling an ambulance.

this attitude is ego-centred and one of the attitudes that is part of why the problem(s) exist and are so hard to tackle.

[bluesky]

Voting for the 4.25 million to 4.75 million km2 bucket, there is still plenty of ice concentration in the CAB and melt ponds aren't as present as in previous years (e.g. 2015), so albedo is probably higher and amplified feedback process for melting could be subdued, while PIOMAS ice volume could still be well above 2012 and 2016 at the end of July, but of course I may be completely wrong, if there is a GAC like in 2012, or a bipolar sea saw throwing hundred of thousands of km2 of sea ice into Fram Strait, or any other unknown surprise, from the complexity, variability, uncertainty of the Arctic weather system.

[Darvince]

I'm stubbornly sticking with 4.5 to 5 million km², like I did last month, despite the two weeks of quick losses we've had the last two weeks, despite signs pointing towards a lower finish and not as much towards my range.

[bluesky]

Voting for the 4.25 million to 4.75 million km2 bucket, there is still plenty of ice concentration in the CAB and melt ponds aren't as present as in previous years (e.g. 2015), so albedo is probably higher and amplified feedback process for melting could be subdued, while PIOMAS ice volume could still be well above 2012 and 2016 at the end of July, but of course I may be completely wrong, if there is a GAC like in 2012, or a bipolar sea saw throwing hundred of thousands of km2 of sea ice into Fram Strait, or any other unknown surprise, from the complexity, variability, uncertainty of the Arctic weather system.

Well, after reading Neven's fantastic article on ASIB, it seems that I am completely wrong regarding melt ponds. According to David Shroder's melt pond model at Reading Uni,  melt ponds prevalence was higher than average in June, and it seems that ECMWF forecasts a strong high pressure for most of the Arctic early August, that could enhances previous week high speed melting a bit further. Although the high pressure is slightly on the Siberian side, therefore it should push the ice to the Pacific side, so transpolar drift conveyor belt toward Fram Straits is not in the agenda for the next few days… So only narrowing down the forecast to a 4.25 to 4.5 million km2 range. Surely, the actual lowest extent will be different!

[EgalSust]

Sticking to 4.25 to 4.75 for now, an August cliff next week might change that

[Tetra]

4.0-4.5

A "comfortable" third to fourth place finish in my opinion.

The ice is thin and the heat has been on in the past few days and the coming week, so there'll be a good deal of damage done, but not enough to pip 2016 for second and 2012 for first.

[CameraMan]

I'm staying with 4-4.5   

Still expecting low 4s, barring some wild weather event which is always possible but unpredictable.

[pearscot]

I voted between 4.25 and 4.75. This has been a real tricky season for the to discern the extent of the ice and what's going on beneath the surface. We shall see!

[Ned W]

Just got back from vacations, so here's an update from the predict-o-matic:

Current prediction 4.23, 95% CI (prediction interval) = (3.70, 4.77)

Here are the odds of each 0.25 million km2 bin (non-overlapping):



Here are the odds of each rank.  Most likely are 4th place, 6th place, and 2nd place, in that order:



Here's how the prediction has evolved over the course of the season.  June and early July were very slow, so the predicted value rose a bit.  Since then it's declined a bit more than halfway back to where it was at the start of the season:

[slow wing]

I voted the [4.00-4.50] million square km bin.

I like the ice movement vector display for today as probably providing a good proxy for where the ice will remain. I'm guessing the ice shown in white will probably remain while that in light blue will probably go.

To set the scale, the area of the circle for 80 degrees latitude is approximately pi*(10,000/9)^2 km^2 ~ 3.9 million square km. (The Earth's curvature has been ignored.)

Just eye-balling, the area of white ice is similar to that area. I think a bit of the light blue ice might remain in the ESS. Hence the bin [4.00,4.50].

If I had to guess the year rank, I think this year will end up in fourth place. Reading off from the opening post, and in units of million square km:
3.18 2012 1st
4.02 2016 2nd
4.07 2007 3rd
[2018 may go here]
4.26 2015
4.27 2011
4.47 2017
...

[Juan C. García]

I voted the [4.00-4.50] million square km bin.

+1

[gerontocrat]

I voted 4.0 to 4.25 million km2. The average of remaining melt over the last 10 years has been stuck at around 4.25 million for some time and I see nothing to tell me that the remaining 30 days or so of the season will see melt much above or much below the average.

[Neven]

I voted the [4.00-4.50] million square km bin.

+1

Same here.

[Brigantine]

It's looking pretty good for the 17 people who voted 4.25 - 4.75.

Very touch and go whether me, Neven etc. will still be rescued, or whether it stays above 4.50.

[Jim Pettit]

It appears, at least for the moment, that the minimum will go down as 4.55 km2 (based on the fact that yesterday's increase of 38k was the largest since March 11). The recent stretch of lower-than-average decreases--16 consecutive days' worth-- retarded the overall decrease enough to put those who chose the 4.0 - 4.5 bucket (yay, me) in the missed-it-by-that-much-but-a-loss-is-still-a-loss bracket.

[Stephan]

I voted for the bin above (4.25-4.75 mio. km²) and I am quite certain that the minimum will be within that range.

[jplotinus]

Also at risk are the 4 who selected the 4.5-5.0 bin. Right now they appear to be in the 💰 but the Arctic may still surprise us.

[Neven]

Just 14K and I will have voted right! I hope I'll be able to sleep tonight. 

[Krakatoa]

I went for 4.5-5.0. Even though it will probably fall just within that range, I'll consider myself to be more wrong than right. I also said that I would be very surprised if the minimum would end up below 4.5, so I probably wont be very surprised, but it still ended up lower than I thought.

[magnamentis]

Also at risk are the 4 who selected the 4.5-5.0 bin. Right now they appear to be in the 💰 but the Arctic may still surprise us.

agree because:

- looking where there is still ice to go, there are persistent heavy winds and waves over a few days to come, first result has been visible today in the charts.

- it's only cold where is ice and/or no significant amount of melt is to be expected

- where the winds blow and the wave action is high, temps are mostly between freezing point and 10C, hence that arm could still go and if the patterns persist for another few days we could see a very late minimum.

- i suspect we shall go below the 4.5 mark during the next 3 days, let's see and could even be a bit more, depending for how many km2 that arm as a whole accounts.

- significant freeze over now open water is not to be expected due to weather, temps and wave action but then we've been caught many times in the past, just interesting to watch however.

[DavidR]

And you were right, with the minimum dropping below 4.5 M km^2 on the 18th.

A late release by JAXA has the figure for yesterday at 4491419, Back up over 4.50 today but still less than 23 K above the 2017 minimum.

[jplotinus]

One status symbol, correct selection of bins 4.25-4.75 or 4.0-4.5, has been replaced and made passé by another symbol; namely: being among those who posted in “The 2018/2019 freezing season” thread before Augoeides 🔒 down on it. 😮

Congratulations! from one who didn’t get in on the new thread posting. 😇

[Neven]

I managed to squeeze one comment in. 

That thread will probably get re-opened within 72 hours.

I jumped for joy for three seconds this morning when I saw that JAXA SIE had just dipped below 4.5 million km2. 

[Bruce Steele]

My condolences to the 4.5-5.0 bin members but that little one day drop on the 18th means about 55% of the ASIF voters got it right this year which has to be some kind of record .

[Ned W]

One status symbol, correct selection of bins 4.25-4.75 or 4.0-4.5, has been replaced and made passé by another symbol; namely: being among those who posted in “The 2018/2019 freezing season” thread before Augoeides 🔒 down on it. 😮

Congratulations! from one who didn’t get in on the new thread posting. 😇

You could start the "2019/2020 freezing season" thread now, and thus get a post in before it's locked ... but only if you hurry and do it now, before all the years are taken ...

 

[litesong]

My condolences to the 4.5-5.0 bin members but that little one day drop on the 18th means about 55% of the ASIF voters got it right this year which has to be some kind of record .

B-b-bb-uutt,  thanx ya fer 'memberin' me! Didn't think ah wast gonna make et, but I's now included wid my per-dik-sion(guess) of 4 ta 4.5 mill-on km2...... wow..... jes' bare-lee.

[Paddy]

As one of those who went for 4.0 to 4.5, I'd like to both breath a small sigh of relief and offer my congrats to the true winners of this poll: the 20.7% who went for 4.25 to 4.75. Looks like you were spot on :-)

[DavidR]

Got the July poll right but changed my vote down after the big drop in July. It was a deliberate decision to go under 4,25 rather than the more obvious 4-4.5.   Still I've done worse and missed by more.

[pauldry600]

"going unspectacular 4.5 to 5m"

Is what I went for in June........wrong bin

[Neven]

JAXA SIE 4.473 million km2 now. My vote looks better by the day. 

[magnamentis]

JAXA SIE 4.473 million km2 now. My vote looks better by the day. 

in about a few years we shall know whether we are learning or whether hitting the correct bin was an outlier

just trying to be funny, another thing worth to learn LOL

[DavidR]

JAXA SIE 4.473 million km2 now. My vote looks better by the day. 

And its looking even better today  as 2018 drops below 2017 to 4457252 a 16K km^2 drop and 15K below the 2017 minimum. It's the equal latest minimum since 2002.

Its also now third lowest in the record for the day of the year.
 

[Neven]

Anyone voting 4.25-4.75 getting nervous? 

[magnamentis]

It's the equal latest minimum since 2002.

lowest minimum i found was on the 24th of september in the year of 2007 A.D.

i think the fact that 2007 had a double minimum, one much earlier and one on above mentioned date does not change that the later minimum was a minumum.

now someone can look at as more numbers behind the comma, my find is based on on decimal.

[DavidR]

It's the equal latest minimum since 2002.

lowest minimum i found was on the 24th of september in the year of 2007 A.D.

i think the fact that 2007 had a double minimum, one much earlier and one on above mentioned date does not change that the later minimum was a minumum.

now someone can look at as more numbers behind the comma, my find is based on on decimal.

I  beg to differ. Today's figures show the 2007 minimum as occurring on the 17th. Admittedly just  1700 less than the 24th but still less. Unless you are talking about a five day figure perhaps?

[charles_oil]

Maybe the <4.25 has a chance still !

[Richard Rathbone]

Anyone voting 4.25-4.75 getting nervous? 

They should be. That ESS arm has enough extent to cover the gap, and low enough area that it could go poof in a few more days. Guess what I voted. 

[oren]

I voted <4.25 but I find it very hard to believe that it will be reached. At some point refreeze is bound to happen in mass outside the central pack and the CAA. We will know anyway in a few days.