2018 Melting Season - Predictions and Speculation

[oren]

Interesting question.  I will note that it has been fairly sunny so far...but I have to agree that the DMI 80N is the easiest prognosticator to follow.  (I really need an easy to follow FDD.)

Easiest thing. https://sites.google.com/site/cryospherecomputing/fdd
For the coming melt season you may want to track albedo-warming potential as well (insolation multiplied by open water). https://sites.google.com/site/cryospherecomputing/warming-potential/graphs
The only problem with these charts is they open only in Internet Explorer but not in Chrome.

[Sailaway]

They open without any issue for me in chrome. Maybe you settings>

[oren]

They open without any issue for me in chrome. Maybe you settings>

I wish I knew the problem. The page opens but instead of the images I see icons that look "broken". Only when I click each icon can I see its image. While in IE all images appear on the initial page.

[gerontocrat]

They open without any issue for me in chrome. Maybe you settings>

I wish I knew the problem. The page opens but instead of the images I see icons that look "broken". Only when I click each icon can I see its image. While in IE all images appear on the initial page.

You can try telling chrome to get rid of all your browsing history, cookies, and cached files, close chrome and then re-open. If that doesn't work you  may have to bite the bullet and re-install chrome and hope it lets you keep all your bookmarks etc.

If that does not work I am out of suggestions.

[Tealight]

The only problem with these charts is they open only in Internet Explorer but not in Chrome.

I wish I knew the problem. The page opens but instead of the images I see icons that look "broken". Only when I click each icon can I see its image. While in IE all images appear on the initial page.

You always have these problems in Chrome? It happens to me maybe one in a hundred visits. A simple page refresh fixed it. As gerontocrat suggested it might be a caching problem.

You can also try opening the website in an incognito window. I often do that to see how the page looks for visitors who don't have access to the google account and old file versions.

[oren]

You always have these problems in Chrome? It happens to me maybe one in a hundred visits. A simple page refresh fixed it. As gerontocrat suggested it might be a caching problem.

You can also try opening the website in an incognito window. I often do that to see how the page looks for visitors who don't have access to the google account and old file versions.

I always have it. Refresh does nothing. Clearing cache does nothing. It waits a few seconds for docs.google.com, and then displays the broken icons. Interestingly, incognito window opens it perfectly - thanks for that idea.

[johnm33]

Given the new moon and the weather outlook I expect an upwelling to show through the ice close to 120⁰east and north of 82⁰ before wednesday.

[LDorey]

Hey Oren,

Have you ever logged into a Chromebook with that account? Google accounts can get in weird state where system viewer is chrome, and then on Windows machines refuses to use anything else to view files.

Liam

I always have it. Refresh does nothing. Clearing cache does nothing. It waits a few seconds for docs.google.com, and then displays the broken icons. Interestingly, incognito window opens it perfectly - thanks for that idea.

[johnm33]

I'm sort of expecting the downturn to continue. Amundsen gulf draws water across the arctic from the direction of, and perhaps from as far away as, NSI. That should cut off and assist in the destruction of the remnant in ESS. The tidal discharge from Amundsen should drive some of the thicker ice that has made its way there from the CAA arctic shore into Beaufort adding to the remnant caught in the eddies of the current driving it and the incoming of Pacific waters. If there's a low that will only enhance the movement of water, if there's a high that will add to compaction. So maybe 7-8 days to go, we'll see.

[Brigantine]

I haven't been following this thread, but it's almost time to score all the predictions... that will make interesting reading.

[Paddy]

I'll speculate that the 2018 extent minimum will likely be one of the 8 lowest minimums in history. Where it will sit among them, I have no idea.

My guess above was correct, but then it was exceedingly safe. EDIT: I'd also like to make an advance prediction now that 2019 will be among the 10 lowest maxima and minima in history so far. The trends are just that strong... although there's always the chance we could see a repeat of 2013's conditions, and I could potentially be caught out.

[Klondike Kat]

I'll speculate that the 2018 extent minimum will likely be one of the 8 lowest minimums in history. Where it will sit among them, I have no idea.

My guess above was correct, but then it was exceedingly safe. EDIT: I'd also like to make an advance prediction now that 2019 will be among the 10 lowest maxima and minima in history so far. The trends are just that strong... although there's always the chance we could see a repeat of 2013's conditions, and I could potentially be caught out.

Between the two, I would say that the maximum is the safer bet.