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Author Topic: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs  (Read 32006 times)

be cause

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #100 on: October 23, 2018, 06:25:14 PM »
bbr - a recommendation, which will probably go in the dustbin: if you're going to post 10-day forecasts, which are known to be extremely unreliable, at least go back and revisit them after 10 days and compare actual accumulated snow vs. the forecast. Otherwise, all these colorful forecast posts are just worthless.
Hullo Oren, the content of your recommendation has been posted n times, where n is getting larger.

And that's all I have to say about that


of course if a forecast ever does come to fruition we will certainly be told  .. but otherwise the response will be N as in Never .. b.c.
be the cause of only good
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bbr2314

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #101 on: October 24, 2018, 08:42:10 PM »
Happy to verify predictions but each D10 map is not a prediction it is model output... I predicted Hudson Bay would be 75% ice covered by 11/15 -- let's start with that.

PS, here are temps for the last six months, what I would consider the "warm season," 4/23-10/22. I think Quebec probably only needs another drop of a degree or two for perpetual summer snowcover over its southern highlands, since it already happened this year over a small area of its northern mountains.

colchonero

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #102 on: October 24, 2018, 10:19:11 PM »
 Even if the snow stays whole summer just over the highest mountain peaks of Quebec, I don't see that as a big glaciation threat. I mean this is always the case in the Alps or Himalayas, and there is no big effect for let's say Switzerland in general. I think you can make your case only if the snow stays over large parts of Quebec with lower altitude.

gerontocrat

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #103 on: October 25, 2018, 01:42:11 PM »
Time to confuse the issue with some data on snow cover - images attached. (https://ccin.ca/ccw/snow/current has woken up again)

Hiccup on snowmageddon in North America continues.
Eurasia snow increasing to average levels.

ps: Greenland precipitation also staying just below average
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2227.msg178316.html#msg178316
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Shared Humanity

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #104 on: October 27, 2018, 04:20:45 PM »
The abrupt and dramatic slowing in North America of Snow Cover Extent (SCE) and Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) continues. I am somewhat surprised by this as positive snow anomalies for fall and early winter have been a persistent feature for the past several years. I think this is due, in part, to the large expanses of open water which can supercharge snowstorms. I would not be surprised by a return to dramatic growth although the rapid freeze of the CAA may be creating local conditions that are not conducive to heavy snowfall.

Have these enormous snowstorms predicted in Eastern Canada fallen only on areas already covered with snow which would explain the stall in SCE but that would not seem to explain the slowing in SWE, would it?

A review of those 10 day snow forecasts might help explain this.
« Last Edit: October 27, 2018, 04:31:41 PM by Shared Humanity »

Shared Humanity

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #105 on: October 27, 2018, 04:47:01 PM »
The forecast for a foot of snow in Waterloo, Iowa, posted by bbr2314 on October 22 was not accurate and temperatures over the next few days will be in the low 60F range.

https://weather.com/weather/tenday/l/50701:4:US

This forecast was a Canadian generated forecast so inaccuracies about Iowa would not necessarily mean similar inaccuracies for Quebec.

bbr2314 -- How has that forecast for Quebec held up?
« Last Edit: October 27, 2018, 05:18:44 PM by Shared Humanity »

bbr2314

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #106 on: October 27, 2018, 05:20:16 PM »
The forecast for a foot of snow in Waterloo, Iowa, posted by bbr2314 on October 22 was not accurate and temperatures over the next few days will be in the low 60F range.

https://weather.com/weather/tenday/l/50701:4:US

This forecast was a Canadian generated forecast so inaccuracies about Iowa would not necessarily mean similar inaccuracies for Quebec.

bbr2314 -- How has those forecasts for Quebec held up?

The Quebec forecast has actually held up fairly well I believe! It appears you are correct re: previous post / where it is already snowing it is accumulating, where it isn't, it isn't.

We are probably still going to easily end up with #1 October for North American snowfall, however, I suspect the "shift" in continental balance from NOAM -> Eurasia occurred because sea ice has finally rejoined the main pack from the Eurasian side. Until the middle of this month, there was water wayyyy above 0C between the CAB/Laptev and Siberia, which kept all the Greenland /Arctic airmasses (mostly) confined to North America. But, as open ocean has conceded to sea ice (partially), it was like a brand new PV highway re-opening into Siberia, with a direct route from Greenland, which also gave all the cold that had been accumulating in NOAM an exit. At least, that is what I suspect, but I could be wrong!

PS: here is 00z EURO 0 hour accumulated snow-water-liquid-equivalent, re: Quebec etc. By 240 it is much deeper.


Shared Humanity

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #107 on: October 27, 2018, 05:28:03 PM »
Thanks. That makes sense as the SWE has not slowed as much as SCE.

Thought I would look at snow anomalies for NA. With regards to SCE, the positive anomalies in Ontario and Quebec are offset by significant negative anomalies elsewhere, mainly Alaska. the Yukon, British Columbia and Northwest Territories.
« Last Edit: October 27, 2018, 05:41:23 PM by Shared Humanity »

colchonero

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #108 on: October 27, 2018, 06:12:13 PM »
The forecast for a foot of snow in Waterloo, Iowa, posted by bbr2314 on October 22 was not accurate and temperatures over the next few days will be in the low 60F range.

https://weather.com/weather/tenday/l/50701:4:US

This forecast was a Canadian generated forecast so inaccuracies about Iowa would not necessarily mean similar inaccuracies for Quebec.

bbr2314 -- How has those forecasts for Quebec held up?

The Quebec forecast has actually held up fairly well I believe! It appears you are correct re: previous post / where it is already snowing it is accumulating, where it isn't, it isn't.

We are probably still going to easily end up with #1 October for North American snowfall, however, I suspect the "shift" in continental balance from NOAM -> Eurasia occurred because sea ice has finally rejoined the main pack from the Eurasian side. Until the middle of this month, there was water wayyyy above 0C between the CAB/Laptev and Siberia, which kept all the Greenland /Arctic airmasses (mostly) confined to North America. But, as open ocean has conceded to sea ice (partially), it was like a brand new PV highway re-opening into Siberia, with a direct route from Greenland, which also gave all the cold that had been accumulating in NOAM an exit. At least, that is what I suspect, but I could be wrong!

PS: here is 00z EURO 0 hour accumulated snow-water-liquid-equivalent, re: Quebec etc. By 240 it is much deeper.

No, but BBR you can't say that now. You can't just turn things around, just to hold on to your point. It is not the weather that is becoming cold because of the sea ice, but the other way around. There is sea ice, because the weather got cold. The shift didn't happen because of the sea ice, it's the sea ice growing that happened because of shift. The land cools down much faster than the sea. You've been telling us for months now that because the vortex is over Canada, there won't be sea ice ice in Bering sea and Russian side.. And how the snow anomalies will get worse and the vortex will stay on the American side with Arctic burning. You cannot just switch places of CAUSE and CONSEQUENCE. now that it is not coming true.

P. S. Sorry for typing errors if there are any,
I am on my phone and in the hurry.
« Last Edit: October 27, 2018, 06:44:23 PM by colchonero »

gerontocrat

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #109 on: October 27, 2018, 06:53:14 PM »
Thanks. That makes sense as the SWE has not slowed as much as SCE.

Thought I would look at snow anomalies for NA. With regards to SCE, the positive anomalies in Ontario and Quebec are offset by significant negative anomalies elsewhere, mainly Alaska. the Yukon, British Columbia and Northwest Territories.
Shared Humanity - a tip. When you access this site, click on the map and then refresh (F5 key works  best sometimes). Often you get one or more days more up to date. e.g. I got the map as at 26 October. Same for the individual graphs. It just what that site does sometimes.
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Shared Humanity

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #110 on: October 27, 2018, 08:54:46 PM »
Thanks for the tip.

bbr2314

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #111 on: October 28, 2018, 12:56:39 AM »
Through hr 120 -- that is a lot of snow for Africa in October... note it is liquid equivalent, 4.0" SWE is probably 40" or so.


bbr2314

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #112 on: October 28, 2018, 01:07:02 AM »
The forecast for a foot of snow in Waterloo, Iowa, posted by bbr2314 on October 22 was not accurate and temperatures over the next few days will be in the low 60F range.

https://weather.com/weather/tenday/l/50701:4:US

This forecast was a Canadian generated forecast so inaccuracies about Iowa would not necessarily mean similar inaccuracies for Quebec.

bbr2314 -- How has those forecasts for Quebec held up?

The Quebec forecast has actually held up fairly well I believe! It appears you are correct re: previous post / where it is already snowing it is accumulating, where it isn't, it isn't.

We are probably still going to easily end up with #1 October for North American snowfall, however, I suspect the "shift" in continental balance from NOAM -> Eurasia occurred because sea ice has finally rejoined the main pack from the Eurasian side. Until the middle of this month, there was water wayyyy above 0C between the CAB/Laptev and Siberia, which kept all the Greenland /Arctic airmasses (mostly) confined to North America. But, as open ocean has conceded to sea ice (partially), it was like a brand new PV highway re-opening into Siberia, with a direct route from Greenland, which also gave all the cold that had been accumulating in NOAM an exit. At least, that is what I suspect, but I could be wrong!

PS: here is 00z EURO 0 hour accumulated snow-water-liquid-equivalent, re: Quebec etc. By 240 it is much deeper.

No, but BBR you can't say that now. You can't just turn things around, just to hold on to your point. It is not the weather that is becoming cold because of the sea ice, but the other way around. There is sea ice, because the weather got cold. The shift didn't happen because of the sea ice, it's the sea ice growing that happened because of shift. The land cools down much faster than the sea. You've been telling us for months now that because the vortex is over Canada, there won't be sea ice ice in Bering sea and Russian side.. And how the snow anomalies will get worse and the vortex will stay on the American side with Arctic burning. You cannot just switch places of CAUSE and CONSEQUENCE. now that it is not coming true.

P. S. Sorry for typing errors if there are any,
I am on my phone and in the hurry.

I think you are not understanding me.

Greenland is the primary vector for NHEM cold in the absence of +sea ice in the Arctic Ocean (until snowcover builds in Siberia, but even then, Greenland is usually colder).

Siberia has had almost no cold this season, until the past few days. NE Siberia has been the only redoubt, and IMO, it was due to the ESS "arm" which gave it a huge leg up on the rest of the landmass due to proximity to ice.

Here is how the sea ice looked before NOAM extent plateaued. You can clearly see both the ESS arm as well as the LACK of ice on the ATL front.



Ten days later, we have seen huge growth, but more importantly, the main pack is now directly connected to northern Siberia by way of Laptev. This has allowed the -GAK airmassess much more ready access to Siberia, whereas the LACK of ice beforehand curtailed their movement toward Siberia (all the open water radiating heat). While Siberia can get cold on its own, when it receives airmasses from Greenland, it can get MUCH colder.



Also: I did not say there won't be *any* ice on the Bering + Russian side. ??? I did say Bering and Laptev (and probably Chukchi) will have worst refreeze on record and open earlier than ever before.

bbr2314

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #113 on: October 28, 2018, 01:24:33 AM »
Compare 2017 (worst ever Bering refreeze) with 2018... and I think it is pretty obvious it is going to be worse this year. All the cold water supposed to be mixing in Bering and Chukchi is instead rushing down Baffin Bay and through the CAA / HB.




colchonero

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #114 on: October 28, 2018, 02:53:10 AM »
Ok, I get you when you explain why is there now cold in Siberia and all that. But my question is how did it get that cold for sea ice to form in the first place, cause you've been saying for months PV will be over North America.  Why did it all of the sudden move  to the central Arctic allowing sea ice growth towards Russia? I know why can we have cold now, like you just explained, because main pack is now connected, but I'm asking when looking at your theory why have we seen such a cold weather in the last week allowing sea ice growth, when by your own words PV should have been located over CAA because of lack of ice on the Russian side?

And no, I don't think Bering will max out worse than last year, but I'm not basing that on anything.

bbr2314

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #115 on: October 28, 2018, 03:24:25 AM »
Ok, I get you when you explain why is there now cold in Siberia and all that. But my question is how did it get that cold for sea ice to form in the first place, cause you've been saying for months PV will be over North America.  Why did it all of the sudden move  to the central Arctic allowing sea ice growth towards Russia? I know why can we have cold now, like you just explained, because main pack is now connected, but I'm asking when looking at your theory why have we seen such a cold weather in the last week allowing sea ice growth, when by your own words PV should have been located over CAA because of lack of ice on the Russian side?

And no, I don't think Bering will max out worse than last year, but I'm not basing that on anything.
I think it is just freaking cold under polar night, so without salty saline warm SSTs, things freeze over quickly regardless. Surface temp maps for 10/19-10/25 show that it was still WAY above normal. But normal is now so cold that even +10C vs norm is sufficient for refreeze (polar night is a powerful phenomenon).

I think it is less the PV relocating and more like a big chunk broke off and dumped into Siberia as the refreeze reached its shores, starting the formation of a major secondary NHEM polar vortex? Attaching 500MB (in addition to surface) for verification, it would be centered under the -500MB anomaly N of Siberia coincident with the small dot of negative temps.


Shared Humanity

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #116 on: October 28, 2018, 04:11:06 AM »
Through hr 120 -- that is a lot of snow for Africa in October... note it is liquid equivalent, 4.0" SWE is probably 40" or so.

Wife is from Fez. When Morocco gets snow, that is where it falls.

bbr2314

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #117 on: October 28, 2018, 05:12:20 AM »
Through hr 120 -- that is a lot of snow for Africa in October... note it is liquid equivalent, 4.0" SWE is probably 40" or so.

Wife is from Fez. When Morocco gets snow, that is where it falls.
Indeed, but this is a lot, and early! I find that widespread North African snows are a good indicator for impending snow in the Northeast / Mid Atlantic US but that could be a stupid thing I have made up in my head....  (also I don't think this is widespread enough to count yet)

gerontocrat

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #118 on: October 28, 2018, 11:12:45 AM »
Meanwhile a look at some data.

Northern Hemisphere Snow Cover as at 27 October 2018 from https://ccin.ca/ccw/snow/current

Eurasia Snow Water Equivalent - average,
Eurasia Snow Cover Extent       - average,

North America Snow Water Equivalent - more than 1 SD above average,
North America Snow Cover Extent       - average, very little snow in the last week or so (and some melting?).

Greenland is the same - accumulated snow to date below average.

So far this year is different from recent years.

Looking at GFS suggests that in the next few days continuing lowish snowfall pretty much everywhere, and the extreme -ve temp anomalies in Canada to lessen.
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oren

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #119 on: October 28, 2018, 12:07:39 PM »
I think one logical explanation (in the context of this thread) to the relatively low snow in NA is the high Beaufort and CAA sea ice extent this year. No open water, no lake effect.

Shared Humanity

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #120 on: October 28, 2018, 06:22:05 PM »
I think one logical explanation (in the context of this thread) to the relatively low snow in NA is the high Beaufort and CAA sea ice extent this year. No open water, no lake effect.

This is very good news for the permafrost as the ground will be exposed to the cold temps.

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #121 on: October 28, 2018, 06:38:15 PM »

This is very good news for the permafrost as the ground will be exposed to the cold temps.

Agreed. Here in the far N.W of Canada, hard up against Alaska, we still have no snow to speak of, but the ground has been frozen for weeks. It has also rained -two significant events- which has pooled and frozen, filling  depressions and voids with ice. Life is hard for sub-nivean fauna, and getting tough for those that graze, such as caribou.

Shared Humanity

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #122 on: October 28, 2018, 07:17:42 PM »
Had to Google subnivian.



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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #123 on: October 28, 2018, 09:45:16 PM »
After a break across Southern Canada SW of the Shield, winter looks to come raging back in full force the next few days, with all of Canada covered by 11/7. The EURO also has the 32F line crossing half of Hudson Bay by then. I was briefly worried about my 11/15 call for HB being 75% iced because it normally would be quite absurd but the latest forecast, IMO, makes it vaguely possible -- if not by then, 11/20, which is still record territory.

There should be MAJOR gains across Baffin through D10 as well. Also, regarding EURO verification, recently I have noticed it has been --

1) too snowy along the southern fringe of the snow front (but only the fringe)
2) slightly warm biased in its projections for Baffin
3) slightly warm biased for other SST areas under 30F, and slightly cold biased for SSTs between 30-32F, and again slightly warm biased for SSTs between 32-36F. I think it struggles with refreeze (understandable but impacts performance)

Finally, I think we will have an interesting "flash freeze" in northeast Hudson Bay this year as the ice front crosses an area of saltier 32F water in between Foxe Basin and HB. To its south, the water is substantially fresher, and as the ice front makes contact with this, there should be a very rapid freezeover of a fairly substantial area sometime around 11/10-15.
« Last Edit: October 28, 2018, 09:51:22 PM by bbr2314 »

gerontocrat

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #124 on: November 01, 2018, 05:32:15 PM »
https://ccin.ca/ccw/snow/cur

Snow cover from Environment Canada as at 31/10/2018.

Above average in North America? - yes
Extraordinary levels ? - no
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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #125 on: November 01, 2018, 08:30:59 PM »
I think SWE technically is extraordinary as it is a record (I believe). Let's wait til Rutgers data comes out today re: total month and the claim can be verified.

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #126 on: November 02, 2018, 04:09:49 AM »
Rutgers still not out! :(

gerontocrat

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #127 on: November 03, 2018, 10:46:48 AM »
https://weather.gc.ca/saisons/prob_e.html

Environment Canada seasonal forecast for Nov 18 to Jan 19 issued on 31 October.
Suggests above average temps in Southern Canada with below average temps in Hudson Bay and along Baffin Bay almost to Newfoundland Island, which will have average temperatures. Above average precipitation in  Canada west of the Rockies and the NE corner.

Eastern Quebec and Newfoundland will be interesting as above average precipitation predicted where below average temps and above average temps areas are side by side.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #128 on: November 03, 2018, 01:17:40 PM »
Canada - Rain or Snow?

It looks like next mid-week id an illustration of what I was trying to get at in the above post. There will be a big storm in NE Canada by next Wednesday - a mixture of rain and snow. (See first image)

At the same time temperatures will be well above freezing in the East of NE Canada, and well below freezing in the West of NE Canada. (see 2nd image).

A relatively small movement of warmth West will turn the snow to rain. A small shift of cold eastwards will turn the rain to snow.

One to watch - especially as Quebec / Newfoundland seems to be the key to a large portion of NA snowfall amounts.
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #129 on: November 03, 2018, 02:41:39 PM »
Gerontocrat,
You wrote "Suggests ... below average temps in Hudson Bay".  Actually, the map shows most of Hudson Bay having a 40% (or, in the south, more) chance of above average temperature; I think this means most of 60% change of near-average temperatures these next 3 months, and a small chance of below average temperatures.  Only in the northern and northeastern fringes of HB are below average temps predicted.
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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #130 on: November 04, 2018, 02:03:34 PM »
Hi Northern Hemisphere Snow Cover fans,

I'm still in the process of building my Albedo Warming model for the whole Northern Hemisphere. It's probably ready before Christmas.

So far I manged to get the NOAA data into a usable format and encoded the continents as subregions. What's still missing is a pixel area correction.

Since I got the snow extent data already I will then publish daily snow extent graphs as well. What do you think about the following graph combining all continents & sea ice into one graph? It's definitely different to any other product out there, but I'm not sure if it has too much colour on it. Changing them and the transparancy is of course no problem.

Edit: In the first picture the shaded regions are 1 standard deviation


« Last Edit: November 04, 2018, 02:10:55 PM by Tealight »

bbr2314

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #131 on: November 04, 2018, 04:58:24 PM »
October monthly data is in from ESRL. I expected the cold in Canada but Greenland...! Greenland saw its lowest October temperature on record, and spots saw MONTHLY departures down to -6C.


bbr2314

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #132 on: November 04, 2018, 05:05:34 PM »
Here are the last six months of anomalies, i.e., "summertime" for Canada.

gerontocrat

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #133 on: November 04, 2018, 05:52:41 PM »
 I like the graphs a lot. I think albedo could be difficult to deal with? I remember seeing a statistic that land was capturing around 7% of the energy imbalance from AGW although comprising 30% of the earth's surface.

Qu1: Winter. How are you dealing with land albedo- very different in forests c.f. tundra, especially when snow is there ? (Snow under the trees meaning albedo higher than snow covered tundra?)

Qu2: Summer. Heat captured by the sea stays in the sea. Most of the heat captured by land is sent back into space at night? Do forests retain heat better than tundra / grassland / deserts?

ps: I would not be surprised if the America graph was used by at least one person for a purpose for which it was not designed.

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gerontocrat

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #134 on: November 04, 2018, 06:14:14 PM »
Gerontocrat,
You wrote "Suggests ... below average temps in Hudson Bay".  Actually, the map shows most of Hudson Bay having a 40% (or, in the south, more) chance of above average temperature; I think this means most of 60% change of near-average temperatures these next 3 months, and a small chance of below average temperatures.  Only in the northern and northeastern fringes of HB are below average temps predicted.
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Niall Dollard

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #135 on: November 04, 2018, 07:45:29 PM »
What do you think about the following graph combining all continents & sea ice into one graph? It's definitely different to any other product out there, but I'm not sure if it has too much colour on it.

I like that graph, Tealight. Good to have the regional snows on the one graph.

Re too much colour info ? I think it's all clear - but if I was going to remove something I would take out the Sea Ice extent and leave it just all snow. But maybe you have reasons for contrasting it with the Arctic SIE.

bbr2314

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #136 on: November 04, 2018, 08:01:43 PM »
I like the graphs a lot. I think albedo could be difficult to deal with? I remember seeing a statistic that land was capturing around 7% of the energy imbalance from AGW although comprising 30% of the earth's surface.

Qu1: Winter. How are you dealing with land albedo- very different in forests c.f. tundra, especially when snow is there ? (Snow under the trees meaning albedo higher than snow covered tundra?)

Qu2: Summer. Heat captured by the sea stays in the sea. Most of the heat captured by land is sent back into space at night? Do forests retain heat better than tundra / grassland / deserts?

ps: I would not be surprised if the America graph was used by at least one person for a purpose for which it was not designed.

Waiting for a Xmas present
I agree! I think the graph is great. I think the one problem is quantifying albedo differentials based on snow depth (i.e., 6" vs. 12" vs. 36" are all different #s for albedo, especially depending on biome). But from an extent perspective it is a necessary and helpful start.

Tealight

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #137 on: November 04, 2018, 08:21:33 PM »
Qu1: Winter. How are you dealing with land albedo- very different in forests c.f. tundra, especially when snow is there ? (Snow under the trees meaning albedo higher than snow covered tundra?)

Qu2: Summer. Heat captured by the sea stays in the sea. Most of the heat captured by land is sent back into space at night? Do forests retain heat better than tundra / grassland / deserts?

Q1: For the anomaly the exact albedo value doesn't matter. It would only make the values a bit bigger or lower. I'm not trying to calculate a temperature or exact absorbed energy values. It's more a system to rank individual years against each other. But i will create an albedo mask for the final product. The different biomes correlate quite well with latitude and this is an easy way encode albedo values onto the map.

Q2: I guess forests retain heat much better than tundra & deserts but I'm not investigating it. In the long, long, long-term I might be able to use temperature from a gridded FDD map which is requested by some users here to estimate ground heat loss to space and where Permafrost melts.

eg:
below freezing without snow cover = big heat loss
below freezing with snow cover = low heat loss
above freezing with snow cover = low heat gain
above freezing without snow cover = high heat gain

gerontocrat

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #138 on: November 04, 2018, 09:12:27 PM »
Qu1: Winter. How are you dealing with land albedo- very different in forests c.f. tundra, especially when snow is there ? (Snow under the trees meaning albedo higher than snow covered tundra?)

Qu2: Summer. Heat captured by the sea stays in the sea. Most of the heat captured by land is sent back into space at night? Do forests retain heat better than tundra / grassland / deserts?

Q1: For the anomaly the exact albedo value doesn't matter. It would only make the values a bit bigger or lower. I'm not trying to calculate a temperature or exact absorbed energy values. It's more a system to rank individual years against each other. But i will create an albedo mask for the final product. The different biomes correlate quite well with latitude and this is an easy way encode albedo values onto the map.

Q2: I guess forests retain heat much better than tundra & deserts but I'm not investigating it. In the long, long, long-term I might be able to use temperature from a gridded FDD map which is requested by some users here to estimate ground heat loss to space and where Permafrost melts.

eg:
below freezing without snow cover = big heat loss
below freezing with snow cover = low heat loss
above freezing with snow cover = low heat gain
above freezing without snow cover = high heat gain

"I can't wait for Xmas" (he fretted & whinged)
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oren

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #139 on: November 04, 2018, 09:53:15 PM »
Tealight, that is a wonderful graph. Seriously.
Here are some suggestions and questions, though it works well as is:
* What is the baseline period for the SD?
* I think a 2SD shading might be better to highlight really anomalous years, and avoid endless chatter about how we are over 1SD which will happen a lot.
* I agree ASI doesn't have to be in this graph, though for the NH albedo it's necessary of course.
* Knowing the most common comments about snow cover, can you separate to more sub-regions? Northern Asia (Siberia) vs. Southern Asia (Himalayas). Canada vs. USA, or even eastern Canada vs. western Canada. This is probably much harder on the masks, but even an approximate division to sub-regions would be great. These sub-regions could be in separate graphs if there's too much clutter.
* Will you also have a graph of regional SWE using snow thickness data? Some folks would be interested in that as well.

Tealight

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #140 on: November 04, 2018, 11:31:22 PM »
Hi oren,

* What is the baseline period for the SD?:
at the moment 1999-2017 (all fully available years)

* I think a 2SD shading might be better to highlight really anomalous years, and avoid endless chatter about how we are over 1SD which will happen a lot.
ok, noted


* I agree ASI doesn't have to be in this graph, though for the NH albedo it's necessary of course.
I included sea ice for a magnitude comparison against snow cover and a shape comparison (very slow melt & freeze compared to snow) But I can of course remove it. For the a seasonal zoom-in it's defenitly beneficial in summer.


* Knowing the most common comments about snow cover, can you separate to more sub-regions? Northern Asia (Siberia) vs. Southern Asia (Himalayas). Canada vs. USA, or even eastern Canada vs. western Canada. This is probably much harder on the masks, but even an approximate division to sub-regions would be great. These sub-regions could be in separate graphs if there's too much clutter.
That will cost you extra ;D
I could certainly define more regions with latitude/longitude lines. but do it is tedious for several regions. If you want graphs for special regions you can download the Landmask.png file and encode the map by drawing with a paint program of your choice over the land. (colour replacing). Then just save the new picture and send it back to me with the color code you used. I can then read the image and transform it into a mask. The resolution has to stay the same (450x550)

* Will you also have a graph of regional SWE using snow thickness data? Some folks would be interested in that as well.
Sorry, that's not part of the NOAA data.

bbr2314

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #141 on: November 05, 2018, 12:12:36 AM »
I have a question for you guys:

In the "Environmental Change Model" from Climate Reanalyzer, as Quebec gets substantially colder, its biomes shift from "Cool Conifer Forest" and "Forest-Tundra Transition" to "Moist Tundra-Alpine" and "Dry Tundra / Alpine" (-1C vs. 1979-2000). By -2C, "Dry Tundra / Alpine" takes over most of Quebec, as spots begin to glaciate, and by -3C, almost all of Quebec is glaciated.

https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/ecm/

My question for you all is, assuming 2018 is not a fluke, how many years of repeated summertime temperature anomalies of -2C or lower vs. 1979-2000 normals does it take to generate widespread biome destruction and displacement? I.E., how many cold summers where snow lasts for much longer than usual (or doesn't melt at all) does it take for the conifer forests to be destroyed?

My second question is, in what format does this destruction occur? When temps drop during summertime, does snow keep accumulating over the forest to the point where it is simply buried and turns to oil / etc underneath new glaciers? Or do the forests remain "visible" but dead, triggering very large fires (despite cooling) that further accelerate Greenland melt + additional cooling through carbon deposition and worsening meltwater runoff in the yr or two that follow?

I wonder if we may be looking at a looming ecological crisis, in Quebec in particular, beyond the ongoing global crisis?

My final note: it appears that the summer of 2018 was the coldest in Canada in the ESRL record with the exception of 1972 (another El Nino... coincidence?). The difference with 1972 vs. 2018 appears to be that 1) oceanic heat is much higher 2) Arctic heat is much higher 3) very cold summertime temps in Canada were INSUFFICIENT to upwell the massive reservoir of oceanic heat and balance the equation, as they apparently did in 1972, which means the reaction we are currently witnessing (++SWE) is more likely to continue in 2019 vs. whatever happened in the early 70s.

The other thing to note: in a direct 1972 to 2018 comparison, a very surprising area stands out as the only region with substantive negative departures. While parts of Canada have matched that year's cold, Greenland has exceeded it. It may be the case that 2018 has had Greenland's coldest summer in a very, very long while, even as the Arctic broiled to its warmest temperatures on record (overall) this year.


Sebastian Jones

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #142 on: November 05, 2018, 05:41:37 PM »
I have a question for you guys:

In the "Environmental Change Model" from Climate Reanalyzer, as Quebec gets substantially colder, its biomes shift from "Cool Conifer Forest" and "Forest-Tundra Transition" to "Moist Tundra-Alpine" and "Dry Tundra / Alpine" (-1C vs. 1979-2000). By -2C, "Dry Tundra / Alpine" takes over most of Quebec, as spots begin to glaciate, and by -3C, almost all of Quebec is glaciated.
.........
My question for you all is,..... how many years of repeated summertime temperature anomalies of -2C or lower vs. 1979-2000 normals does it take to generate widespread biome destruction and displacement?

My second question is, in what format does this destruction occur? When temps drop during summertime, does snow keep accumulating over the forest to the point where it is simply buried and turns to oil / etc underneath new glaciers? Or do the forests remain "visible" but dead, triggering very large fires (despite cooling) ......


Your question is one about ecosystem change.
I have noodled through the Climate Analyzer tool as well, it is interesting and fun to play God and cool the earth and watch the glaciers appear and grow.
Typically, ecosystems, such as boreal forest, resist change, a form of ecological inertia. This is why a couple of cool or warm years does not dramatically change the landscape.
Sometimes conditions change enough so that the optimum ecosystem for the climate is different than what is currently in existence. Parts of the boreal forest in the west of Canada are currently experiencing a climate that would better suit Aspen Parkland. Eventually, slowly, the change could take place, but what usually happens is that some catastrophic event happens and the ecosystem that emerges is better suited to the climate. In the case of a warming (or cooling) boreal forest, that catastrophe is usually fire.
If the summer cooling is sufficiently large and abrupt, then yes, it would be possible for snows in the boreal forest to remain over the summer and accumulate until an ice cap appears.  I forget exactly where, but on one of Canada's arctic Islands, something like this has been documented: An ice cap retreated, and dead, flattened vegetation was found where the ice had been. Upon carbon dating the vegetation, it was found that the ice cap had grown, starting in the 12th century AD, by snows accumulating on the periphery of an existing ice cap and squashing and preserving the vegetation.
I hope this addresses your question, I apologize for the lack of references; I  could probably dig some up, but, fortunately for me, you are not my professor.... ;)

bbr2314

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #143 on: November 05, 2018, 05:52:26 PM »
I have a question for you guys:

In the "Environmental Change Model" from Climate Reanalyzer, as Quebec gets substantially colder, its biomes shift from "Cool Conifer Forest" and "Forest-Tundra Transition" to "Moist Tundra-Alpine" and "Dry Tundra / Alpine" (-1C vs. 1979-2000). By -2C, "Dry Tundra / Alpine" takes over most of Quebec, as spots begin to glaciate, and by -3C, almost all of Quebec is glaciated.
.........
My question for you all is,..... how many years of repeated summertime temperature anomalies of -2C or lower vs. 1979-2000 normals does it take to generate widespread biome destruction and displacement?

My second question is, in what format does this destruction occur? When temps drop during summertime, does snow keep accumulating over the forest to the point where it is simply buried and turns to oil / etc underneath new glaciers? Or do the forests remain "visible" but dead, triggering very large fires (despite cooling) ......


Your question is one about ecosystem change.
I have noodled through the Climate Analyzer tool as well, it is interesting and fun to play God and cool the earth and watch the glaciers appear and grow.
Typically, ecosystems, such as boreal forest, resist change, a form of ecological inertia. This is why a couple of cool or warm years does not dramatically change the landscape.
Sometimes conditions change enough so that the optimum ecosystem for the climate is different than what is currently in existence. Parts of the boreal forest in the west of Canada are currently experiencing a climate that would better suit Aspen Parkland. Eventually, slowly, the change could take place, but what usually happens is that some catastrophic event happens and the ecosystem that emerges is better suited to the climate. In the case of a warming (or cooling) boreal forest, that catastrophe is usually fire.
If the summer cooling is sufficiently large and abrupt, then yes, it would be possible for snows in the boreal forest to remain over the summer and accumulate until an ice cap appears.  I forget exactly where, but on one of Canada's arctic Islands, something like this has been documented: An ice cap retreated, and dead, flattened vegetation was found where the ice had been. Upon carbon dating the vegetation, it was found that the ice cap had grown, starting in the 12th century AD, by snows accumulating on the periphery of an existing ice cap and squashing and preserving the vegetation.
I hope this addresses your question, I apologize for the lack of references; I  could probably dig some up, but, fortunately for me, you are not my professor.... ;)
Fortunately for you, your answer was comprehensive and fantastic, and I am giving you an A+ for the response!  ;D ;D ;D

Alexander555

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #144 on: November 05, 2018, 08:12:15 PM »
I think it's going to continue a lot longer than 2019. Most of the earth's warming happend in the last 40 years. So how much melt was there in Greenland 40 years ago ? Somebody wrote that the water in the Nares Strait and Baffinbay flows from north to south. So these higher quantities of cold meltwater flow the entire sumer from the north of Greenland ( the west side) to the south of Greenland. And area that is receiving more cold meltwater from Canada trough the Hudson Bay during several months in spring. It's an accumulation of colder conditions during spring and summer, compared to 40 years ago. And like you can see on climate reanalizer, you almost always have an cold anomaly in that area. I don't see any reason why that would stop. The warmer all the rest gets the more cold meltwater will gather in that area.

Niall Dollard

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #145 on: November 06, 2018, 10:25:53 PM »
NH snow cover for October 2018 was 20.06 million km2 which represents a positive anomaly of 2.52. A little less than the last two Octobers.

Above normal extent was evident over parts of west Russia, Yakutia and much of eastern and central Canada.

Below normal extent over Alaska and central Siberia.

The North American figure (which includes Greenland) was 9.67 million km2. This was the second greatest NA figure in the Rutgers series back to 1967. Just a little behind 2002 (9.76)

bbr2314

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #146 on: November 06, 2018, 10:29:01 PM »
NH snow cover for October 2018 was 20.06 million km2 which represents a positive anomaly of 2.52. A little less than the last two Octobers.

Above normal extent was evident over parts of west Russia, Yakutia and much of eastern and central Canada.

Below normal extent over Alaska and central Siberia.

The North American figure (which includes Greenland) was 9.67 million km2. This was the second greatest NA figure in the Rutgers series back to 1967. Just a little behind 2002 (9.76)

Finally out! Can't believe we were so close to 2002. SO CLOSE! The volume is higher this year, in any case.


bbr2314

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #147 on: November 07, 2018, 03:09:03 AM »


https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-017-3788-5

Abstract:

The impact of snow-atmosphere coupling on climate variability and extremes over North America is investigated using modeling experiments with the fifth generation Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM5). To this end, two CRCM5 simulations driven by ERA-Interim reanalysis for the 1981–2010 period are performed, where snow cover and depth are prescribed (uncoupled) in one simulation while they evolve interactively (coupled) during model integration in the second one. Results indicate systematic influence of snow cover and snow depth variability on the inter-annual variability of soil and air temperatures during winter and spring seasons. Inter-annual variability of air temperature is larger in the coupled simulation, with snow cover and depth variability accounting for 40–60% of winter temperature variability over the Mid-west, Northern Great Plains and over the Canadian Prairies. The contribution of snow variability reaches even more than 70% during spring and the regions of high snow-temperature coupling extend north of the boreal forests. The dominant process contributing to the snow-atmosphere coupling is the albedo effect in winter, while the hydrological effect controls the coupling in spring. Snow cover/depth variability at different locations is also found to affect extremes. For instance, variability of cold-spell characteristics is sensitive to snow cover/depth variation over the Mid-west and Northern Great Plains, whereas, warm-spell variability is sensitive to snow variation primarily in regions with climatologically extensive snow cover such as northeast Canada and the Rockies. Furthermore, snow-atmosphere interactions appear to have contributed to enhancing the number of cold spell days during the 2002 spring, which is the coldest recorded during the study period, by over 50%, over western North America. Additional results also provide useful information on the importance of the interactions of snow with large-scale mode of variability in modulating temperature extreme characteristics.

Shared Humanity

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #148 on: November 08, 2018, 02:24:34 AM »
Gawd! Get me my fainting couch. bbr has posted some research.

bbr2314

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #149 on: November 08, 2018, 08:13:04 AM »
Gawd! Get me my fainting couch. bbr has posted some research.
Get your fainting couch ready again. I think there is a good chance Boston sees 120-150"+ this winter and ends up completely paralyzed.

Snow-atmospheric coupling = impending catastrophe. We are so f*cked! 2017-18 was incredible and we are already so BEYOND last winter. WTF