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Author Topic: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs  (Read 32008 times)

bbr2314

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #50 on: September 23, 2018, 07:51:22 PM »
Thank you! My browser has / is still stuck.

I have been watching the snowcover via this link which is the same map but with SSTAs & can be animated:

https://weather.gc.ca/saisons/animation_e.html?id=month&bc=sea

Looks like we should expect a substantial uptick in both SWE and extent today btw.


bbr2314

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #51 on: September 24, 2018, 06:38:40 AM »
Vive la neige en Quebec!



It should be noted (comparing CCIN charts) that the gains this September have been very lopsided. Eurasia is actually about normal. But North America...!

But look at the CAA / orientation of the ice and it actually makes sense IMO? The snowfall so far is directly aligned with where the sea ice / open ocean boundary is NW of Nunavut.


gerontocrat

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #52 on: September 26, 2018, 04:58:46 PM »
A small hiccup in the progress towards the inevitable glaciation of Northern Canada is attached..
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
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bbr2314

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #53 on: September 26, 2018, 07:28:20 PM »
A small hiccup in the progress towards the inevitable glaciation of Northern Canada is attached..
If the Bering anomalies / Canada cold are indeed inextricably linked, the latest model projections could indicate that most all of Canada is going into the deep freezer imminently. And with the speed it is set to happen, perhaps the Lower 48 could follow fairly quickly as well, with falls already being projected across Montana and the NW Plains.

Shared Humanity

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #54 on: September 26, 2018, 08:23:23 PM »
A small hiccup in the progress towards the inevitable glaciation of Northern Canada is attached..

 :D

Shared Humanity

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #55 on: September 27, 2018, 01:30:08 AM »
Snow depth anomalies don't look too spectacular.

Shared Humanity

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #56 on: September 27, 2018, 01:35:45 AM »
Northern Hemisphere snow cover and snow water equivalent is normal.

bbr2314

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #57 on: September 27, 2018, 02:16:56 AM »
Northern Hemisphere snow cover and snow water equivalent is normal.
That masks the regional crazy. EURO has the whole Canadian shield covered by D10. Russia will still only be white in Northeast Siberia while a mega ridge drifts into the PAC & Russian seas atop the open water (which in many parts has more heat than any autumn before).

The ridging that has continued to span from the ATL across into the Pacific has also resulted in the PV / vortex over Greenland being unable to discharge cold airmasses into Siberia effectively (look at all the open water in between the sea ice and the coast -- except far NE Siberia). So cold air has continued to dump into the Rockies with a greatly enhanced recurrence interval vs. normal, and these large troughs eventually then transport oceanic heat north in the form of +500MB anoms, in a self-perpetuating cycle.

Alexander555

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #58 on: September 27, 2018, 07:32:43 AM »
It don't has to mean very much, but it  could be a trend. You have a higher albedo for at least a couple days in a pretty big area. Of course, a couple days of higher temperatures can knock it down. September 27 in 2017 and 2018.

Shared Humanity

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #59 on: September 27, 2018, 03:06:43 PM »
Northern Hemisphere snow cover and snow water equivalent is normal.
That masks the regional crazy. EURO has the whole Canadian shield covered by D10.

The 10 day forecasts you have been posting this fall have been consistently wrong across much of Canada. I suggested you post an evaluation after the fact so we can determine the level of accuracy. The snow depth anomaly chart I just posted clearly shows that snow has not been abnormally high. A 10% positive anomaly hardly is anything to write about.

Shared Humanity

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #60 on: September 27, 2018, 03:31:50 PM »
Northern Hemisphere snow cover and snow water equivalent is normal.
That masks the regional crazy. EURO has the whole Canadian shield covered by D10.

On this thread, we can learn more if we attach just as much importance to snow cover year round instead of just focusing on the Fall. Due to Arctic sea ice melt, we have far more open water that can and does cause heavier snowfall in the Fall. I live 6 blocks from Lake Michigan and lake effect snow can be impressive. We have seen a trend towards increasing snowfall at the end of the melt season and yet NA snowfall has not yet spiked this year in a dramatic fashion. I do expect that it will but am also certain it will all melt next spring and summer just as it did this year.
« Last Edit: September 28, 2018, 02:09:18 AM by Shared Humanity »

Shared Humanity

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #61 on: September 27, 2018, 03:34:00 PM »
I am very concerned about heavy, early snow cover though. This heavy snow cover serves to insulate the permafrost from the bitter cold during the winter which is accelerating permafrost melt.

gerontocrat

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #62 on: September 27, 2018, 03:45:39 PM »
I am very concerned about heavy, early snow cover though. This heavy snow cover serves to insulate the permafrost from the bitter cold during the winter which is accelerating permafrost melt.

I have just posted this-
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1786.msg174423.html#msg174423

which strongly suggests an additional mechanism for accelerating permafrost melt - plants.

Also some months ago posted about a study showing how thick snow encourages plant growth which encourages.......
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
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bbr2314

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #63 on: September 28, 2018, 09:36:28 AM »
00z EURO has depths getting pretty substantial across lower latitudes of Canada by D10.


Neven

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #64 on: September 28, 2018, 12:36:15 PM »
Any forecasts for D20 or D50?
Compare, compare, compare

karl dubhe2

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #65 on: September 28, 2018, 01:17:05 PM »
Any forecasts for D20 or D50?

There's this one from the Canadian weather people.   https://weather.gc.ca/saisons/prob_e.html  Says the probabilility of above average snowfall is somewhat greater this fall/early winter.  But that's a long range forecast, almost like quoting the Farmer's Almanac.   ;D 

gerontocrat

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #66 on: September 28, 2018, 01:59:00 PM »
Any forecasts for D20 or D50?

There's this one from the Canadian weather people.   https://weather.gc.ca/saisons/prob_e.html  Says the probabilility of above average snowfall is somewhat greater this fall/early winter.  But that's a long range forecast, almost like quoting the Farmer's Almanac.   ;D

D20 or D50? That's nothing.

Wunderground (which stops at the 49th parallel) suggests for the northern tier of the USA, a really cold October, above average temperature November, and very above average temperature December.

And attached are the temp and precipitation forecasts from the link from Karl dunhe2. Note the precipitation forecast is not for a lot except in patches. Should be new forecasts on the website by early October.

So far no forecasts of an ice-sheet reaching south to the Great Lakes by Xmas.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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Juan C. García

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #67 on: September 28, 2018, 02:55:53 PM »
Any forecasts for D20 or D50?

There's this one from the Canadian weather people.   https://weather.gc.ca/saisons/prob_e.html  Says the probabilility of above average snowfall is somewhat greater this fall/early winter.  But that's a long range forecast, almost like quoting the Farmer's Almanac.   ;D

D20 or D50? That's nothing.


I think that Neven was being sarcastic. A forecast of 20 or 50 days has a big chance on being wrong.  ;)
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Red

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #68 on: September 28, 2018, 03:13:38 PM »
Any forecasts for D20 or D50?

There's this one from the Canadian weather people.   https://weather.gc.ca/saisons/prob_e.html  Says the probabilility of above average snowfall is somewhat greater this fall/early winter.  But that's a long range forecast, almost like quoting the Farmer's Almanac.   ;D

D20 or D50? That's nothing.


I think that Neven was being sarcastic. A forecast of 20 or 50 days has a big chance on being wrong.  ;)
I'm sure it was sarcasm. Just like to share what "The Weather Network" is saying about the coming Canadian winter:
PRELIMINARY LOOK AHEAD TO WINTER

With rumors of a developing El Niño, many are asking if the mild fall pattern will continue through the winter.  For those in Western Canada, we do expect a milder than normal winter, but from the central Prairies to Atlantic Canada a more traditional Canadian winter is expected with near normal temperatures. Across this region, we expect the upcoming winter to bear some resemblance to last winter with periods of harsh winter weather that should be offset at times by significant periods of milder weather
Makes me smile I'm not sure if they're meteorologists or astrologists.

Alexander555

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #69 on: September 28, 2018, 09:32:08 PM »
When you talk about Canada, i would say that it doesn't matter that much that the temperature is above or below average. If you are talking about snow.  It will still be cold. Or is anybody seeing the cameleons from Florida moving north, maybe after last winter they got used to it . What would be the impact of a modrate El Nino on the weather in Canada ?

bbr2314

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #70 on: September 30, 2018, 10:33:42 PM »
The "cold triangle" is expanding SE as the sun falls lower in the sky each passing day. Some of this may be muted but models (all three big ones) now showing first major snowfalls down to Denver and the western Plains States in the Lower 48.







Coverage should continue building more steadily into Quebec through D10. Volume anomalies may begin becoming more pronounced as the area subject to melt starts dwindling fairly quickly through October.

I wonder if the very steep impending gradient between snowfall across the Rockies / Plains + 80-85F+ SSTs in the GOM may also result in a very potent fall severe weather season?

gerontocrat

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #71 on: September 30, 2018, 11:18:57 PM »
GFS says Canada gets a big fat storm Wed Thur Fri - loads of rain and snow from the Great Lakes to the NE. Apart from that pretty dry, but very cold.
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bbr2314

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #72 on: October 02, 2018, 06:15:00 PM »
Sexy

gerontocrat

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #73 on: October 03, 2018, 12:19:25 AM »
The storm in Quebec on Thursday looks like a real humdinger.
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Niall Dollard

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #74 on: October 03, 2018, 12:24:30 AM »
Rutgers snow cover extent for the Northern Hemisphere was 6.37 million km2. This is a positive anomaly of 1.14. A little greater than Sept 17.

As BBR has highlighted already, there was a big east/west split this year with a record breaking anomaly for North America whilst Eurasia had below normal snow cover.

Attached is updated chart of the nh monthly anomalies of 2016-2018. 

bbr2314

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #75 on: October 03, 2018, 05:34:04 PM »
Calgary shattering October records 3 days into the month with feet of additional accums forecast... this year....!!!!

https://weather.com/storms/winter/news/2018-10-03-calgary-alberta-canada-snow-record-october

When just looking at October, the snowstorm was a calendar day record breaker, topping 11.7 inches (29.7 centimeters) on Oct. 4, 1914.

The storm total for Calgary when including Monday's additional 2 inches (5.3 centimeters) was 15 inches (38.1 centimeters).

Calgary's average October snowfall of 3.9 inches (10 centimeters) was more than tripled by this two-day snowstorm.

bbr2314

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #76 on: October 03, 2018, 05:40:25 PM »
The models are now dumping on parts of the Dakotas but the 6z para GFS took it to another level.


gerontocrat

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #77 on: October 03, 2018, 10:14:24 PM »
Yes, an impressive dump of snow. And in a week or so just a memory?

Calgary shattering October records 3 days into the month with feet of additional accums forecast... this year....!!!!

Calgary's average October snowfall of 3.9 inches (10 centimeters) was more than tripled by this two-day snowstorm.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/calgary-october-snow-1.4848394
'A much better day': Sunshine and warm temperatures help Calgary dig out from fall snowstorm
Quote
But with sunny skies in Calgary and temperatures expected to rise as high as 4 C Wednesday, the head of the city's Emergency Operations Centre said they will be shifting some of their responsibilities back to the roads and transit departments for the remainder of the cleanup.

"[The weather] has us actually moving a little bit from snow operations, to planning for that thaw that will come," said Tom Sampson in an update Wednesday morning.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/0/5913490
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bbr2314

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #78 on: October 03, 2018, 10:34:51 PM »
What I see... low 40s will melt some but 15" should have staying power and much more is on way.


gerontocrat

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #79 on: October 03, 2018, 10:48:10 PM »
t is Quebec that is really going to get clobbered. Fort Mackenzie way up north tomorrow gets very heavy rain at +8 celsius in the morning that turns to a blizzard by afternoon that will last for 36 hours - it gets cold and will stay cold. So there the snow will stay?

But most of the time it looks like especially Northern Canada is mainly dry with a bit of snow now and then. A dump of snow maybe in South Central Canada next mid-week? But will that stay or melt?
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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bbr2314

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #80 on: October 03, 2018, 11:24:26 PM »
t is Quebec that is really going to get clobbered. Fort Mackenzie way up north tomorrow gets very heavy rain at +8 celsius in the morning that turns to a blizzard by afternoon that will last for 36 hours - it gets cold and will stay cold. So there the snow will stay?

But most of the time it looks like especially Northern Canada is mainly dry with a bit of snow now and then. A dump of snow maybe in South Central Canada next mid-week? But will that stay or melt?
You should toggle between output here. You can view accumulated snow on ground by hour for GFS, CMC, and EURO.

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/massachusetts/gusts-3h-mph/20171030-0600z.html

(obviously switch ^^ to whereever you need)

bbr2314

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #81 on: October 05, 2018, 07:26:07 AM »
Well, that would be insane. This is a bit far out but the PARA GFS has the recurving hurricane in the EPAC turning into a blizzard in the Central Plains after landfalling in Baja.



The GFS is a match but outcome somewhat different re: blizzicane.

Here is Para snowfall through 186. While it may be aggressive it is clear we may be in for the coldest and snowiest October in North American history.



The "sag" triangle of cold that has anchored over Canada will begin falling SE fairly rapidly as daylight dwindles and snowfalls begin accumulating across more substantial areas. With the PV continually tumbling from Greenland into the CAA & the Shield this will only get worse, and as Foxe Basin and HB refreeze, the stage is set for worsening conditions through December (IMO).

It may take a while for NYC & Boston to join Calgary and Chicago but once the cold descends (as it always has in recent years) I anticipate a winter that is extremely severe.
« Last Edit: October 05, 2018, 07:32:40 AM by bbr2314 »

bbr2314

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #82 on: October 12, 2018, 03:53:00 PM »
Wow!

We are all but a lock for #1 October across North America.

Meanwhile, the situation is yielding another side effect which I did not realize would occur. All the cold being stuck / shunted into North America + the open water along the Russian side / lack of snow in western Siberia has resulted in MASSIVE + 500MB anoms overhead.

But the side effect of this is also no refreeze along the Russian shoreline. No accumulating snows, much less cold meltwater, no cold / albedo way up, = no shore ice. The shore ice has traditionally anchored the Laptev refreeze alongside the expansion of the CAB. With this year's formation of shore ice delayed so substantially across both Alaska and much of Siberia, that is yet another very bad sign for volume over winter 2018.

North American snowcover has now passed total Arctic sea ice area, btw (probably a record for the time of year -- both snowcover at its high, and sea ice at its lows). This goes to 10/11 but when it updates to include 10/12 (attached) it will be even higher. The falls from 10/11 to 10/12 were widespread and deep.

I think this supports the notion that as we continue losing Arctic sea ice volume, the growing deficit is seemingly depositing partially onto the continents in the form of accumulated SWE (and as the deficit worsens, the rate at which this is happening is increasing).




gerontocrat

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #83 on: October 15, 2018, 02:12:43 PM »
But Eurasia is bigger than Canada, Here are the snow graphs.
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Alexander555

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bbr2314

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #85 on: October 16, 2018, 02:28:59 AM »
I went through the Rutgers maps comparing 2018 to 2002 day by day for October. I would estimate we have built up a running surplus of about 1.25M KM^2 vs. 2002 across North America. This should be maintained or exceeded as we end the month if modeling is correct.

https://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_anom.php?ui_set=1&ui_region=namgnld&ui_month=10

In any case, 2002 holds the current record for North American October extent at 9.763M KM^2. I think we should end up at least +1 vs. that yr which means that the current scale for October will be broken.  8)


gerontocrat

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #86 on: October 17, 2018, 12:27:51 PM »
I had a look at Environment Canada's seasonal forecasts for Nov to Jan. They lean towards slightly warmer than average temperatures and mostly average precipitation. This seems to chime in somewhat with the outlook from the US Climate Prediction Centre.

Overall, the forecasts suggest the October cold will moderate to perhaps above average temperatures with few signals for above average precipitation. Alaska might be really interesting with much above temperatures and high precipitation along the West coast.

We will see if the snowfall Nov to Jan is with or without these forecasts.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #87 on: October 22, 2018, 03:32:03 PM »
Ho hum. Another small hiccup in the progress towards the inevitable glaciation of Canada.

It also looks like not that much snow in the remainder of October. Just occasional storms hitting NW USA  and Quebec.
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bbr2314

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #88 on: October 22, 2018, 04:13:52 PM »
I would not call this "not much" considering it is sticking and spreading. As Foxe Basin and Hudson Bay ice up almost completely over the next three to four weeks, expect model output to adjust colder (they are horrible with refreeze / SSTs past short term). But it is already non-stop blizzarding across much of Quebec with 24-48" forecast in widespread areas through D10 by 00z EURO (and others).

At this point in most other years, snowcover in Quebec was sporadic, or light. In 2018, it is almost entirely covered to a depth of 12"+ in most places, with 24"+ widsepread.

Combined with Hudson Bay, and the SSTs off the Atlantic Seaboard, I think this will yield a bitterly cold winter for the US and probably Europe (but severity focused on Lower 48). Quebec will flash purple with anomalies through November but it will probably be normal / above for temps (maybe significantly so) by late Jan / Feb as the center of anomalous snowpack vs. normal falls down to the US Lower South. Then it will again flip back to severely "below" as snowcover persists in Quebec into May / June / possibly much of July.


Archimid

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #89 on: October 22, 2018, 05:35:25 PM »
I wonder how the blob is going to affect snow cover.

he Massive Anomaly 'Blob' in The Pacific Is Back And Might Bring Even More Strange Weather

https://www.sciencealert.com/the-massive-blob-in-the-pacific-is-back-and-it-might-bring-even-more-insane-weather

Quote
Since days are still long in early fall across Alaska, the sunny September (and into October) skies have also allowed ocean temperatures in the Northeast Pacific to rise significantly, as well.

This has led to a return pool of abnormally warm ocean water in the Northeast Pacific known as "the blob", and just in time for Halloween!

But scientists are unsure whether the blob will remain a fixture or fade away. If it manages to linger into the winter, the consequences for the Lower 48 could be profound.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

oren

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #90 on: October 22, 2018, 06:23:36 PM »
As Foxe Basin and Hudson Bay ice up almost completely over the next three to four weeks
Hey, at least the Hudson Bay is cooperating with your extreme prediction, and has started freezing about 1-2 weeks earlier than recent years. I still don't expect it to be almost complete by Nov 15th, though.

morganism

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #91 on: October 22, 2018, 07:54:53 PM »
Alaska’s weird, warm fall:

https://www.adn.com/alaska-news/weather/2018/10/21/alaskas-weird-warm-fall-a-boon-for-farmers-but-really-scary-for-people-who-depend-on-arctic-ice/

Colder in NA than in Alaska.

The Blob has been named the Rediculously Resilent Ridge, and is thought to be methane upwelling. Like the one that steers over by Greenland

Daniel Swain at Weather West has done a paper on it....

bbr2314

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #92 on: October 22, 2018, 08:35:39 PM »
As Foxe Basin and Hudson Bay ice up almost completely over the next three to four weeks
Hey, at least the Hudson Bay is cooperating with your extreme prediction, and has started freezing about 1-2 weeks earlier than recent years. I still don't expect it to be almost complete by Nov 15th, though.
I think I said 75% by 11/15 (mostly complete, won't be ice yet or only super new ice on srn / se shoreline and James Bay). In any case, it is definitely making quick progress, and I think the very early refreeze will be problematic for forecast models as well (the disparity with climo will be large, and they incorporate climo into their forecasts).

Shared Humanity

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #93 on: October 22, 2018, 11:50:50 PM »
But it is already non-stop blizzarding across much of Quebec with 24-48" forecast in widespread areas through D10 by 00z EURO (and others).

At this point in most other years, snowcover in Quebec was sporadic, or light. In 2018, it is almost entirely covered to a depth of 12"+ in most places, with 24"+ widsepread.


This post is confusing me. You say 24" to 48" of snow is forecast and then post a map that suggests anywhere from negligible to 4 inches.

bbr2314

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #94 on: October 22, 2018, 11:57:37 PM »
But it is already non-stop blizzarding across much of Quebec with 24-48" forecast in widespread areas through D10 by 00z EURO (and others).

At this point in most other years, snowcover in Quebec was sporadic, or light. In 2018, it is almost entirely covered to a depth of 12"+ in most places, with 24"+ widsepread.


This post is confusing me. You say 24" to 48" of snow is forecast and then post a map that suggests anywhere from negligible to 4 inches.
That is liquid equivalent in snow through 240 -- 2" is normally 20-24".

Shared Humanity

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #95 on: October 23, 2018, 01:59:46 AM »
But it is already non-stop blizzarding across much of Quebec with 24-48" forecast in widespread areas through D10 by 00z EURO (and others).

At this point in most other years, snowcover in Quebec was sporadic, or light. In 2018, it is almost entirely covered to a depth of 12"+ in most places, with 24"+ widsepread.


This post is confusing me. You say 24" to 48" of snow is forecast and then post a map that suggests anywhere from negligible to 4 inches.
That is liquid equivalent in snow through 240 -- 2" is normally 20-24".

Then I call bullshit on this map entirely.

Waterloo Iowa is predicted to have 10 to 12 inches of snow in the next 10 days according to this map and here is the long range forecast.

https://weather.com/weather/tenday/l/50701:4:US

Daily highs never drop below 46F.

Rochester, Minnesota which is on the northern edge of this band of heavy snow has daily highs which don't drop below 41F.

https://weather.com/weather/tenday/l/USMN0632:1:US
« Last Edit: October 23, 2018, 02:08:13 AM by Shared Humanity »

Brigantine

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #96 on: October 23, 2018, 02:02:35 AM »
That is liquid equivalent in snow through 240 -- 2" is normally 20-24".
Citation needed?

bbr2314

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #97 on: October 23, 2018, 03:04:08 AM »
But it is already non-stop blizzarding across much of Quebec with 24-48" forecast in widespread areas through D10 by 00z EURO (and others).

At this point in most other years, snowcover in Quebec was sporadic, or light. In 2018, it is almost entirely covered to a depth of 12"+ in most places, with 24"+ widsepread.


This post is confusing me. You say 24" to 48" of snow is forecast and then post a map that suggests anywhere from negligible to 4 inches.
That is liquid equivalent in snow through 240 -- 2" is normally 20-24".

Then I call bullshit on this map entirely.

Waterloo Iowa is predicted to have 10 to 12 inches of snow in the next 10 days according to this map and here is the long range forecast.

https://weather.com/weather/tenday/l/50701:4:US

Daily highs never drop below 46F.

Rochester, Minnesota which is on the northern edge of this band of heavy snow has daily highs which don't drop below 41F.

https://weather.com/weather/tenday/l/USMN0632:1:US
Weather.com is based on GFS

and go Google re: liquid equiv, or just paste the maps with the depth totals, lol they are almost identical even though normal ratios arent always perfect

oren

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #98 on: October 23, 2018, 03:13:08 AM »
bbr - a recommendation, which will probably go in the dustbin: if you're going to post 10-day forecasts, which are known to be extremely unreliable, at least go back and revisit them after 10 days and compare actual accumulated snow vs. the forecast. Otherwise, all these colorful forecast posts are just worthless.

gerontocrat

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #99 on: October 23, 2018, 04:47:48 PM »
bbr - a recommendation, which will probably go in the dustbin: if you're going to post 10-day forecasts, which are known to be extremely unreliable, at least go back and revisit them after 10 days and compare actual accumulated snow vs. the forecast. Otherwise, all these colorful forecast posts are just worthless.
Hullo Oren, the content of your recommendation has been posted n times, where n is getting larger.

And that's all I have to say about that
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