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Author Topic: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs  (Read 31397 times)

oren

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #200 on: December 02, 2018, 11:40:35 PM »
Gerontocrat, bear in mind that Tealight's project deals only with snow extent, not thickness/SWE.

Tealight

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #201 on: December 03, 2018, 02:42:59 AM »
Hullo Tealight,

The images are striking to say the least. I remember a post from you some time ago how this was a new big project and Xmas was your deadline. Xmas came early.

No my big project is to calculate an albedo warming potential from the snow cover data with consideration of vegetation. The snow daycount map was just a small thing I felt like doing in the mean time. It took maybe 2-3 hours including all the visualization refinements. I already had most of the nessecary code from my sea ice analysis. When I feel like it I will also calculate snow melt days and snow fall days. I don't know exactly how yet because in the mid latitudes snow falls and melts several times a year.

What fascinates me is that you have the data by latitude. Are you producing numeric / graphical analyses of snow-days by latitude (and by region) over time? I ask this as studies say more snow predicted at high latitudes due to increased water in the atmosphere but as temperatures warm presumably snow should melt earlier especially at lower latitudes - the snow-line moving north.

Could be an interesting analysis, but you would need to seperate at least the continents. European snow is far further north than in America.

-------------------------

With my albedo warming potential it's easy to draw rough biome boundaries, but getting groundcover right for something like mountain ranges is maybe beyond my capabilities. I attached an AWP map with my current biome map. The different biomes are certainly visible,but might be off by a few pixel (1pixel=24km at 60N)

TerryM

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #202 on: December 03, 2018, 03:58:14 AM »
Tealight


I wonder if you could explain your biome map to some extent.


Thanks in advance.
Terry

Rob Dekker

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #203 on: December 03, 2018, 09:39:27 AM »
This may have come up before, but just in case it didn't :
Here is the Northern Hemisphere snow extent according to Environment Canada :



When you look at the snow extent in August/September, you see that snow extent was well above average (and even well above one sigma above average) in the 'flat' time during the summer of 2018.

Why was that ?

Was there a particular area of snow that failed to melt out during the summer of 2018 ?
Or is this some anomaly in the measurements this year ?
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bbr2314

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #204 on: December 03, 2018, 09:42:45 AM »
This may have come up before, but just in case it didn't :
Here is the Northern Hemisphere snow extent according to Environment Canada :



When you look at the snow extent in August/September, you see that snow extent was well above average (and even well above one sigma above average) in the 'flat' time during the summer of 2018.

Why was that ?

Was there a particular area of snow that failed to melt out during the summer of 2018 ?
Or is this some anomaly in the measurements this year ?
I would think it was due to CAA retaining full summertime coverage in many spots, as well as the Western Himalayas having +coverage v. normal.

Rob Dekker

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #205 on: December 04, 2018, 09:28:38 AM »
Quote
I would think it was due to CAA retaining full summertime coverage in many spots, as well as the Western Himalayas having +coverage v. normal.

Could be, but NOAA does not seem to show any anomaly in August :

« Last Edit: December 04, 2018, 09:35:20 AM by Rob Dekker »
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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #206 on: December 04, 2018, 09:34:11 AM »
And neither does Rutgers Snow Lab

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Rob Dekker

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #207 on: December 04, 2018, 09:36:33 AM »
Could it be that Environment Canada is just off ?
Does anyone know which data source they use to determine snow cover extent ?
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bbr2314

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #208 on: December 04, 2018, 02:22:19 PM »
Could it be that Environment Canada is just off ?
Does anyone know which data source they use to determine snow cover extent ?
EC actually does manual / human map output based on multiple satellites. NSIDC and Rutgers are strictly satellite pixels. The EURO is probably the most accurate but IDK where that data can be found.

bbr2314

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #209 on: December 04, 2018, 06:38:40 PM »
When will I get credit for harping on this continuously... probably never but that's OK  8)


gerontocrat

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #210 on: December 04, 2018, 06:50:15 PM »
When will I get credit for harping on this continuously... probably never but that's OK  8)
f you posted links (e.g. a link to these graphs) it might help.
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bbr2314

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #211 on: December 04, 2018, 07:21:06 PM »
When will I get credit for harping on this continuously... probably never but that's OK  8)
f you posted links (e.g. a link to these graphs) it might help.
https://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/index.php

Also: I think these graphs show something very interesting happening. The Northern Hemisphere trend is sharply positive since 07-08. But North AMERICA has been trending positive through the decades, slowly but surely (rather, the trend in NAmerica has been more consistent, especially in recent years, when it has begun outpacing Eurasia -- not the case previously). It looks as if snow-mass-balance (and extent) is shifting towards Greenland (i.e. North America) which makes sense as it is the largest extant ice sheet remaining in the NHEM, and the Arctic Ocean is increasingly the un-Arctic, prohibiting Greenland airmasses from flowing as freely as they used to across to Eurasia.

I wonder if this is also partially due to local feedbacks to Eurasia (+methane from ESS etc, and melting permafrost everywhere else in Siberia)??
« Last Edit: December 04, 2018, 07:28:29 PM by bbr2314 »

magnamentis

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #212 on: December 04, 2018, 10:53:59 PM »
the reason to post anything should be to share information and discuss possible solutions and workarounds for the problems at hand. seeking fame (credits) is exactly why projects, even with the right goals in mind originally, start to fall apart as soon the worst is over to simply build up a new flawed system.

ultimately it's the motives that make the difference whether anything is sustainable and
holds long term.

this applies to everything, not only climate risks.
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oren

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #213 on: December 04, 2018, 10:59:58 PM »
When will I get credit for harping on this continuously... probably never but that's OK  8)
You would get much more credit for focusing on important snow issues if you didn't insist on confounding this with impending glaciation.

Grubbegrabben

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #214 on: December 04, 2018, 11:45:53 PM »
When will I get credit for harping on this continuously... probably never but that's OK  8)
You would get much more credit for focusing on important snow issues if you didn't insist on confounding this with impending glaciation.

bbr2314 post #5 (out of 1515). The only change is the expected timespan. Down from a few centuries to... next week?

Question:

The Hansen maps show declines in temperatures surrounding areas affected by the NATL cold pool, with anomalies increasing (in a negative direction) as the Greenland melt accelerates.

Could the lingering Hudson Bay ice and the very cold Quebec this summer also be a result of this, and if the positive feedback continues accelerating, perhaps it's possible that higher elevations of both Scotland and Quebec see re-glaciation over the next few centuries, while Greenland gradually melts out?

On topic: Snow cover being more than 1 standard deviation off compared to historical data - is that such a big deal? For a normal  distribution only 68% of the samples are expected to be within +/- 1 SD. If the trend over the years is positive even more samples would be expected to be over +1 SD.

TerryM

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #215 on: December 05, 2018, 12:49:49 AM »
When will I get credit for harping on this continuously... probably never but that's OK  8)


He asks continuously. ::)
Terry

bbr2314

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #216 on: December 05, 2018, 01:24:39 AM »
the reason to post anything should be to share information and discuss possible solutions and workarounds for the problems at hand. seeking fame (credits) is exactly why projects, even with the right goals in mind originally, start to fall apart as soon the worst is over to simply build up a new flawed system.

ultimately it's the motives that make the difference whether anything is sustainable and
holds long term.

this applies to everything, not only climate risks.
im already famous dont need a person who hates ukrainians like terrym to qualify myself thx

bbr2314

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #217 on: December 05, 2018, 01:28:14 AM »
When will I get credit for harping on this continuously... probably never but that's OK  8)
You would get much more credit for focusing on important snow issues if you didn't insist on confounding this with impending glaciation.

bbr2314 post #5 (out of 1515). The only change is the expected timespan. Down from a few centuries to... next week?

Question:

The Hansen maps show declines in temperatures surrounding areas affected by the NATL cold pool, with anomalies increasing (in a negative direction) as the Greenland melt accelerates.

Could the lingering Hudson Bay ice and the very cold Quebec this summer also be a result of this, and if the positive feedback continues accelerating, perhaps it's possible that higher elevations of both Scotland and Quebec see re-glaciation over the next few centuries, while Greenland gradually melts out?

On topic: Snow cover being more than 1 standard deviation off compared to historical data - is that such a big deal? For a normal  distribution only 68% of the samples are expected to be within +/- 1 SD. If the trend over the years is positive even more samples would be expected to be over +1 SD.
If the Younger Dryas is an indicator it could occur within a decade. Perhaps the 70s were such an occurrence, aborted by +GHGs / abrupt end to -insolation due to SO2. Now we pay the piper? IDK.

bbr2314

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #218 on: December 05, 2018, 01:30:06 AM »
When will I get credit for harping on this continuously... probably never but that's OK  8)
You would get much more credit for focusing on important snow issues if you didn't insist on confounding this with impending glaciation.
I think the two issues are inextricable. Greenland gained mass balance this year (so impending glaciation is now actual advance, at least for Greenland). How can people reconcile +GHGs at some ridiculous # vs. the last mass gain in Greenland (1972) versus the current state where the same is occurring if glaciation is not impending? It does not matter if this glaciation lasts a few hundred years -- we will all be dead by 2100, that is the relevant timeframe.

be cause

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #219 on: December 05, 2018, 11:30:24 AM »
sounds like a Trumpette ..
be the cause of only good
and love all beings as you should
and the 'God' of all Creation
will .. through you .. transform all nations :)

gerontocrat

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #220 on: December 05, 2018, 01:44:39 PM »
Greenland gained mass balance this year (so impending glaciation is now actual advance, at least for Greenland).
It is possible that Greenland gained mass in the Sep 16 to Aug 17 year, as surface mass balance (SMB) increased by more than 200 GT above average. It is possible, but less likely, that Greenland gained mass in the Sep 17 to Aug 18 year, as surface mass balance (SMB) increased by about 150 GT above average. But we do not know the extent of mass loss from calving as there is no GRACE data. Therefore your statement is a maybe, not a fact. We may have new GRACE data from January 2019 to tell us the change in Greenland's mass from early 2017.

Meanwhile, as far this the 2018-19 year's snow-cover is concerned, (the subject of this thread), the snow in North America is above average all studies predict as the long-term trend, but not totally out of wack. It looks possible that for the next few days, snowfall in North America will be not so much, and extent may go down a bit as relative warmth replaces relative cold from West to East.
« Last Edit: December 05, 2018, 01:52:39 PM by gerontocrat »
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bbr2314

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #221 on: December 05, 2018, 04:44:15 PM »
Greenland gained mass balance this year (so impending glaciation is now actual advance, at least for Greenland).
It is possible that Greenland gained mass in the Sep 16 to Aug 17 year, as surface mass balance (SMB) increased by more than 200 GT above average. It is possible, but less likely, that Greenland gained mass in the Sep 17 to Aug 18 year, as surface mass balance (SMB) increased by about 150 GT above average. But we do not know the extent of mass loss from calving as there is no GRACE data. Therefore your statement is a maybe, not a fact. We may have new GRACE data from January 2019 to tell us the change in Greenland's mass from early 2017.

Meanwhile, as far this the 2018-19 year's snow-cover is concerned, (the subject of this thread), the snow in North America is above average all studies predict as the long-term trend, but not totally out of wack. It looks possible that for the next few days, snowfall in North America will be not so much, and extent may go down a bit as relative warmth replaces relative cold from West to East.
I would call Sept, Nov, and #2 Oct records "out of whack". My statement re: Greenland is based on NSIDC's report, but you could be correct re: calving as well -- link for convenience

https://nsidc.org/greenland-today/

gerontocrat

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #222 on: December 05, 2018, 07:46:36 PM »
Greenland gained mass balance this year (so impending glaciation is now actual advance, at least for Greenland).
It is possible that Greenland gained mass in the Sep 16 to Aug 17 year, as surface mass balance (SMB) increased by more than 200 GT above average. It is possible, but less likely, that Greenland gained mass in the Sep 17 to Aug 18 year, as surface mass balance (SMB) increased by about 150 GT above average. But we do not know the extent of mass loss from calving as there is no GRACE data. Therefore your statement is a maybe, not a fact. We may have new GRACE data from January 2019 to tell us the change in Greenland's mass from early 2017.

Meanwhile, as far this the 2018-19 year's snow-cover is concerned, (the subject of this thread), the snow in North America is above average all studies predict as the long-term trend, but not totally out of wack. It looks possible that for the next few days, snowfall in North America will be not so much, and extent may go down a bit as relative warmth replaces relative cold from West to East.
I would call Sept, Nov, and #2 Oct records "out of whack". My statement re: Greenland is based on NSIDC's report, but you could be correct re: calving as well -- link for convenience

https://nsidc.org/greenland-today/

And here is the quote from https://nsidc.org/greenland-today/. Definitely a maybe.
Quote
The net change in (2018) mass of the ice sheet overall, including this higher discharge of ice directly into the ocean, is not clear at this point but may be a smaller loss or even a small gain. This is similar to our assessment for 2017, and in sharp contrast to the conditions for the preceding decade.
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Wherestheice

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #223 on: December 05, 2018, 09:00:54 PM »
Greenland is not heading towards glaciation. It is melting. This is scientific fact. And there is no evidence to suggest the loss of ice will stop. A few years of little gain mean nothing in a downward trend. Weather is not climate.



With all do respect bbr, come back in 10 years with clear evidence that support your claims, because the current science of climate science does not.
"When the ice goes..... F***

gerontocrat

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #224 on: December 06, 2018, 10:35:29 PM »
Meanwhile - back to snow.
An interesting 5 days ahead in N.America. While most of North America looks like being almost free of snow, Storm Diego seems due to dump a load of snow and ice all along the southern plains and the Appalachians.
https://www.wunderground.com/news/storms/winter/news/2018-12-05-winter-storm-diego-snow-ice-forecast-southern-plains-appalachians

Being that far south and this being early winter, will it stay or will it melt afterwards?
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Niall Dollard

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #225 on: December 07, 2018, 12:14:08 AM »
Update on the monthly Rutgers NH snow anomalies. Like the past couple of years, November saw another positive anomaly. Extent was 37.77 million km2, which is an anomaly of +3.81.

Positive anomalies came from much of North America and Kazakhstan.
Negative anomalies were over much of Europe/Western Russia and Mongolia.

bbr2314

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #226 on: December 07, 2018, 08:00:54 PM »
Just a .... little bit... of snow coming to British Columbia... liquid equivalents of 10"+ in spots and only through D6-7!!!


Alexander555

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #227 on: December 11, 2018, 07:33:28 PM »
The snow will be gone in a couple days, but still, 2 feet.....

https://watchers.news/2018/12/10/winter-storm-diego/

gerontocrat

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #228 on: December 11, 2018, 09:27:54 PM »
From the NOAA 2018 Arctic Report Card ftp://ftp.oar.noaa.gov/arctic/documents/ArcticReportCard_full_report2018.pdf

Note that the quote below is about Arctic snow at 60+ North, i.e. excludes snow at lower latitudes.
Quote
Despite anomalously high SCE during the 2017 melt season and anomalously high SWE during the 2018 melt season (both primarily observed over the Eurasian continent), long-term trends for both SCE and SWE remain negative. The trends in Arctic SCE over the 1981-2018 period are -0.1%/decade, -3.4%/decade, and -14.9%/decade for April, May, and June, respectively. The April trend in Arctic SWE over the 1981-2018 period is -2.5%/decade, yielding a decrease of about 10% over the entire Arctic since 1981. The loss of spring snow cover in June is approximately the same magnitude as September sea ice extent loss. April SWE trends (near the timing of Arctic SWE maximum) are weaker because they are less sensitive to temperature increases than SCE and more strongly influenced by precipitation trends.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #229 on: December 12, 2018, 10:13:15 AM »
https://ccin.ca/ccw/snow/current  (refresh the page to get latest day data)

North America Snow Cover Extent stalled again, though snow water equivalent still increasing.

Looks like extent could retreat north as warmth spreads across from West to East.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #230 on: December 13, 2018, 07:51:14 PM »
Western USA snowpack season decline from the AGU meeting

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-46547064

Climate change is 'shrinking winter'
Snowy mountain winters are being "squeezed" by climate change, according to scientists in California.

Quote
Researchers who studied the winter snowfall in the mountains there revealed that rising temperatures are reducing the period during which snow is on the ground in the mountains - snow that millions rely on for their fresh water.

They presented their findings at the American Geophysical Union meeting - the world's largest gathering of Earth and space scientists.

"Our winters are getting sick and we know why," said Prof Amato Evan, from the Scripps Research Institute in San Diego, who carried out the investigation. "It's climate change; it's rising temperatures."

He found that the length of time snow is on the ground there is continually "being squeezed" into a shorter period. And the early arrival of summer, he explained, is a driving force behind sometimes devastating wildfires.

"Particularly in a place like California where we get all of our precipitation during the winter time, that means that our summers are growing longer," he told BBC News. "And really what that means is our fire seasons are growing longer.

"We've got less snow, we've got a longer fire season, we've got infestations [of pests that thrive in warmer temperatures] - these ecological issues; it's a kind of perfect storm of really bad outcomes, which then result in - in some cases - these massively dramatic fires."
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Tealight

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #231 on: December 14, 2018, 01:49:08 PM »
I'm almost finished with my Northern Hemisphere AWP model, hopefully done this weekend. The most important part left is coding the calculations for each individual region and then the daily updates can start.

A proper documentation, long term graphs and other visulization will follow soon after.

In the regional breakdown it's impossible to create exact regions for each individuals preferences. So I chose my regions by considering geographic regions and international borders. (apart from mid latitude Asia, no one there is interested in it anyway)


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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #232 on: December 14, 2018, 01:54:43 PM »
Awesome, Nico. That regional mask map looks just like the one for Arctic sea ice.  ;D
Compare, compare, compare

gerontocrat

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #233 on: December 14, 2018, 02:55:59 PM »
Cor blimey, Tealight.

Meanwhile, the anomaly in the south of North America should get pinker as warmth heads North in central and eastern N.A. and disposes of thin snow cover. Starting to show in data from https://ccin.ca/ccw/snow/current as at 13 Dec.
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oren

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #234 on: December 14, 2018, 04:25:24 PM »
In the regional breakdown it's impossible to create exact regions for each individuals preferences. So I chose my regions by considering geographic regions and international borders. (apart from mid latitude Asia, no one there is interested in it anyway)
The regional breakdown is beyond perfect. Thanks.