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Author Topic: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs  (Read 50642 times)

Tor Bejnar

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #350 on: April 08, 2019, 04:07:19 PM »
NSIDC's Arctic Sea Ice News and Analysis of April 3 includes a discussion on Arctic Ocean snow cover and this graph. (Something like: less net snow cover due to late freeze, early thaw and changing weather patterns (but more snow in the CAB), with consequences for ice growth, etc.)
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gerontocrat

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #351 on: April 11, 2019, 04:22:09 PM »
Another winter storm (Wesley) dumps more snow over the middle of North America, stopping and then reversing the decline in SWE (snow mass) to above +1SD. Meanwhile, warmth pushes North and East from the far west of North America, reducing SCE (snow cover towards -1SD.

The result looks like even worse flooding over the next few weeks, especially down the Missouri.

And warmth steadily moves North and East for the next week and more. My prediction that belongs to me is that by the 21st April just about all the snow cover south of 60 degrees in North America will be gone (apart from snow in the higher mountains), even though snow mass in the remainder may still be above average.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #352 on: April 13, 2019, 11:14:30 AM »
https://ccin.ca/ccw/snow/current Northern hemisphere snow as at 12th April

Eurasia SCE and SWE is well-behaved, still melting in accordance with the models (in itself unusual). i.e. steady decline with SCE at 1 SD below average and SWE 1 SD above average.

North America stays really interesting. Two storms affected North America over the next week, the second being a monster - Storm Wesley. This dumped loads of snow especially on the high plains (see first image). As a result SWE (snow mass) is now well above +1SD (standard deviation) for the time of year,  and SCE (snow cover extent) approaching +1 SD.  (2nd and third images)

However, Spring has sprung. The last image shows typical late afternoon temperatures in North America over the next 10 days. So, my little prediction that belongs to me is that apart from some snow in the high mountains, there will be no snow on the ground south of 60 degrees North in North America well before the end of the month.

The real legacy of the extreme snow fall in North America seems to me to be the floods expected to roll down the Mississippi / Missouri river basin over the next two months. Wesley can only have worsened that outlook.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #353 on: April 18, 2019, 01:28:33 PM »
https://ccin.ca/ccw/snow/current Northern hemisphere snow as at 17th April

A quick look at North America after the monster Storm Wesley. This dumped loads of snow especially on the high plains.  As a result SWE (snow mass) spiked well above +1SD (standard deviation) for the time of year,  and SCE (snow cover extent) approached+1 SD.

But all that snow is nearly gone. Spring sprang. SCE and SWE now in fast decline. The last image shows typical late afternoon temperatures in North America over the next 10 days.  With temperatures getting that warm snow will not survive. So, my little prediction that belongs to me is that apart from some snow remaining in the high mountains, there will be no snow on the ground south of 60 degrees North in North America well before the end of the month.

The real legacy of the extreme snow fall in North America still seems to me to be the floods expected to roll down the Mississippi / Missouri river basin over the next two months. Storm Wesley and the current rapid melt can only have worsened that outlook.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #354 on: April 20, 2019, 11:30:07 AM »
https://ccin.ca/ccw/snow/current North American Snow as at 19th April

Another look at North America after the monster Storm Wesley. This dumped loads of snow especially on the high plains.  But all that snow is nearly gone. Spring sprang. SCE and SWE now in fast decline, SWE down to +1 SD above average, extent down to 1 SD below average, in line with long-term model predictions for higher snow fall at higher latitudes and earlier melt at lower latitudes.

The last image shows typical late afternoon temperatures in North America over the next 10 days.  With temperatures getting that warm snow will not survive. So, my little prediction that belongs to me is that apart from the snow remaining in the mountains, there will be no snow on the ground south of 60 degrees North in North America well before the end of the month.

The real legacy of the extreme snow fall in North America still seems to me to be the floods expected to roll down the Mississippi / Missouri river basin over the next two months. Storm Wesley and the current rapid melt can only have worsened that outlook.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #355 on: April 20, 2019, 11:44:20 AM »
https://ccin.ca/ccw/snow/current Eurasian Snow as at 19th April

Eurasia was showing the textbook example of expected snow until a week ago, with both SCE and SWE in strong decline, SWE down to +1 SD above average, extent down to 1 SD below average, in line with long-term model predictions for higher snow fall at higher latitudes and earlier melt at lower latitudes. That good behaviour has stopped.

In the last week, SCE has increased, now at +1SD above average, and SWE decline has stalled, now at well over +1SD above average. I am not sure why, as temperatures and temperature anomalies do not seem to be colder than normal.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #356 on: April 20, 2019, 03:15:03 PM »
And here are Tealight's (aka NICO SUN)  maps and graph showing where snow is melting fast and where it is melting slow.

What struck me is

- that there appears to be more melting ahead of schedule than behind,
- that the temperature contrast between Eastern Canada and Western Canada / Alaska is very pronounced,
- that apart from earlier in N. America earlier in the season extent remained well within the +2 / -2 SD boundary.
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bbr2314

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #357 on: April 25, 2019, 10:17:40 AM »
Chicago has a chance of seeing its largest post 4/25 snowstorm on record. I think the city will only see a little bit but the suburbs are now shown receiving up to 10" by the 00z modeling suite and the trend has been colder. That this is preceding the Arctic heat wave is no coincidence IMO, as the Arctic is spilling its guts into the mid-latitudes.


bbr2314

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #358 on: April 26, 2019, 08:31:25 AM »
The new EURO shows 6" down into Chicago proper with 8" or so at O'Hare, which would absolutely smash the all-time late season (4/25+) record.

gerontocrat

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #359 on: April 26, 2019, 01:10:38 PM »
At the moment, the snow line heads north in North America
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Klondike Kat

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #360 on: April 26, 2019, 05:35:35 PM »
That may change over the weekend.  More snow on the way.

gerontocrat

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #361 on: April 26, 2019, 06:33:42 PM »
That may change over the weekend.  More snow on the way.
1. There will be snow.
2. There will be rain.
3. There will be warmth.

I am betting that overall 2+3 > 1
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bbr2314

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #362 on: April 27, 2019, 03:52:45 AM »
Of course the warmth will win out, but the impending event for Chicago appears to have truly historic potential. Winter storm watches are now out for 4-8", which would smash existing late-season snowfall records. This is a VERY anomalous event.

Gray-Wolf

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #363 on: April 27, 2019, 01:30:51 PM »
Can't it be problematic,over there,when extreme cold/dry air masses run into warm/humid air masses?

Not talking precipitation events either!
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Shared Humanity

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #364 on: April 27, 2019, 10:21:10 PM »
It is a little after 3 p.m. in Chicago. Began snowing at 11:00 a.m. this morning, periodically heavy. Temps are hovering right at 36F and this is what you get.

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #365 on: April 28, 2019, 05:48:42 PM »
Chicago recorded 2 inches of snow from the storm. I live 6 miles from Ohare and this is a photo from my balcony...a beautiful spring morning.

gerontocrat

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #366 on: April 28, 2019, 05:58:07 PM »
There was a dump of snow yesterday that is still there (briefly)- but just north of the Great Lakes. Being in Canada, unlikely to be noticed by the US media.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #367 on: May 01, 2019, 10:49:13 AM »
https://ccin.ca/ccw/snow/current Eurasian Snow as at 30th April

All my predictions failed as snow loss became below average in both Eurasia and North America.
I will blame warmth in higher latitudes, as it is impossible that it was simply because I was WRONG.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #368 on: May 01, 2019, 11:00:52 AM »
And here is a GIF of recent snow in North America.

Needs a click to start and plays 6 times.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #369 on: May 07, 2019, 09:41:58 PM »
I looked at a map of northern Quebec and found a non-coastal location, Fort-Mackenzie, and looked up its weather forecast.  Rather wet to support a deepening snow cover.  There is plenty of snow on the ground, however, per this ECMWF/Global Euro model (60-80 inches is 150 to 200 mm).  Further north in Kangiqsujuaq, snow loss will be minimal
« Last Edit: May 07, 2019, 09:48:13 PM by Tor Bejnar »
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gerontocrat

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #370 on: May 08, 2019, 06:48:42 PM »
https://ccin.ca/ccw/snow/current as at 7th May

All my predictions for April failed as snow loss became below average or even rose in both Eurasia and North America. I will blame warmth in higher latitudes, as it is impossible that it was simply because I was WRONG.

But now the blip seems to be over, and down comes SCE and SWE. Mostly +ve temperature anomalies at high latitudes in both North America and Eurasia should encourage further strong snow melt (even in the Northern part of Quebec Province)
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Niall Dollard

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #371 on: May 08, 2019, 08:53:32 PM »
Rutgers NH Snow cover extent for April was 29.06 million km2.

A negative anomaly of -1.16. (second negative month this spring).

Areas Below : Rockies, Canadian Plains and a ring running from Euro Russia across the Steppes to northern China.

Areas Above: Ontario, northern USA Plains and another ring across Asia (north of the aforementioned ring earlier).

gerontocrat

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #372 on: May 09, 2019, 10:20:08 PM »
An encouragement to snow melt at very high latitudes?
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #373 on: May 13, 2019, 11:02:10 AM »
The North wind won't blow,
And we won't have snow,
And what will poor Robin do then, poor thing?
His head from under his wing he'll bring,
And he'll sing, 'tis Spring, 'tis Spring!
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #374 on: May 17, 2019, 11:21:32 AM »
https://ccin.ca/ccw/snow/current as at 16th May

North America SCE and SWE now both within the +1 SD band again.

Eurasia a little bit above the +1 SD band. But as far as SWE is concerned, most of the anomaly looks like snow in the Himalayas and Tibet.

The warm afternoons and rapidly increasing insolation are killing off the snow.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #375 on: May 18, 2019, 10:04:29 AM »
Those warm afternoons in North America.....
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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