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Author Topic: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs  (Read 54704 times)

Tor Bejnar

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #400 on: May 25, 2019, 08:04:45 PM »
From the paper An inventory and topographic analysis of glaciers in the Torngat Mountains, northern Labrador, Canada
Journal of Glaciology, Vol. 60, No. 223, 2014  doi: 10.3189/2014JoG13J195

Quote
More recently, in a pilot study of change detection on a subset of the 96 largest Torngat glaciers, Brown and others (2012) documented a 9% decrease in ice area between 2005 and 2008 using glacier outlines mapped from SPOT5(Satellite Pour l’Observation de la Terre) imagery (2008) and this study (2005). The recent reduction of glacier ice in the Torngat Mountains was interpreted as a response to both higher summer air temperatures and a multi-decadal decline in winter precipitation (Brown and others, 2012). A full analysis of change detection over the past 60 years for all glaciers and ice masses in the Torngat Mountains, including field surveys, is currently in progress.
First, the paper isn't 'just' 2005 (and older) data. (Yes, it doesn't include post 2012 data.)  2nd, these glaciers are mostly (at least) in Labrador; not sure how many are in Quebec.  3rd, we certainly look forward to the (what was and may still be) 'in progress' survey.
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

gerontocrat

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #401 on: May 25, 2019, 08:33:43 PM »
3rd, we certainly look forward to the (what was and may still be) 'in progress' survey.

From Environment Canada.. I get the feeling the Torngat glaciers aren't at the top of the to-do list.

https://ccin.ca/ccw/glaciers/future
Quote
Numerical models on the influence of changing climate on glacier mass balance are required to evaluate the magnitude and significance of the changes in glacier volume which might occur. To date, however, the development of numerical mass balance models specifically applicable to Arctic glaciers (where most of Canada's ice resides) has been hindered by the lack of detailed field datasets required to drive the models and evaluate their performance. Currently, scientists are working on a detailed meteorological and mass balance dataset collected at John Evans Glacier, Ellesmere Island, Nunavut to develop detailed numerical mass balance models.

Environment and Climate Change Canada and Natural Resources Canada amalgamated their glacier science expertise in a National Glaciology Program. The program improves our understanding of how Canada's glacier and water resources are responding to climate change, enables us to develop adaptive strategies for managing these resources, and provides better information on the movement, deposition and volume of pollution in our environment.
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bbr2314

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #402 on: May 25, 2019, 09:38:15 PM »
3rd, we certainly look forward to the (what was and may still be) 'in progress' survey.

From Environment Canada.. I get the feeling the Torngat glaciers aren't at the top of the to-do list.

https://ccin.ca/ccw/glaciers/future
Quote
Numerical models on the influence of changing climate on glacier mass balance are required to evaluate the magnitude and significance of the changes in glacier volume which might occur. To date, however, the development of numerical mass balance models specifically applicable to Arctic glaciers (where most of Canada's ice resides) has been hindered by the lack of detailed field datasets required to drive the models and evaluate their performance. Currently, scientists are working on a detailed meteorological and mass balance dataset collected at John Evans Glacier, Ellesmere Island, Nunavut to develop detailed numerical mass balance models.

Environment and Climate Change Canada and Natural Resources Canada amalgamated their glacier science expertise in a National Glaciology Program. The program improves our understanding of how Canada's glacier and water resources are responding to climate change, enables us to develop adaptive strategies for managing these resources, and provides better information on the movement, deposition and volume of pollution in our environment.
Everyone forgets about the lil' ole' Torngat Mountains, but we do not!

Shared Humanity

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #403 on: May 26, 2019, 12:13:57 AM »
Research article is pay walled but the abstract indicates that snow depth has an impact on permafrost and can contribute to its degradation. It would be interesting to have historical maps of snow cover and depth and compare this to changes in permafrost. At any rate, if we are seeing deeper and earlier snows, it cannot be a good thing for the permafrost.

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-014-2356-5

Given that NH SWE anomalies are consistently higher than extent anomalies, we can only conclude that the snow is deeper over the far north.

Shared Humanity

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #404 on: May 26, 2019, 04:20:28 AM »
NSIDC has good permafrost maps.

https://nsidc.org/data/search/#keywords=frozen+ground/sortKeys=score,,desc/facetFilters=%257B%257D/pageNumber=1/itemsPerPage=25

Would be interesting to track a season of snow fall to see where the heavy early snows fall in relationship to the permafrost.

If you pull up the map on NSIDC website you can magnify the map to see all of the detail.

Shared Humanity

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #405 on: May 26, 2019, 02:55:19 PM »
I would like to thank bbr2314 for tracking snowfall since last fall. He has given us a good record for snow cover in relationship to permafrost in NA. I've copied a snow cover depth map that he provided on September 28 and the story it tells is not good for the permafrost in some areas of Canada. Research shows that a foot of early season snow is enough to insulate permafrost from the brutal cold of the northern latitude winters, preventing the surface layer from refreezing. Looking at this map, it is obvious that much of the permafrost in northern Quebec is at risk if this seasonal pattern of heavy early snows in this region is the new normal.

Is there any source for snow cover from a couple of decades ago? Is this heavy snowfall in northern Quebec a new phenomenon?
« Last Edit: May 26, 2019, 03:48:23 PM by Shared Humanity »

Shared Humanity

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #406 on: May 26, 2019, 03:21:51 PM »
Thought I would repost this land cover map for Canada that was posted on this thread last fall. It is interesting to see how the land cover map closely matches the permafrost map. I suppose this is not surprising but it does provide us with an idea of how land cover will change as permafrost degrades.

Shared Humanity

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #407 on: May 26, 2019, 03:24:42 PM »
bbr2314...I would like to apologize to you for comments I made earlier about wishing this thread included other topics and not just your concerns about reglaciation as if this was somehow your responsibility. If I would like other relevant topics about NH snow cover to be discussed, that is my responsibility.

Shared Humanity

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #408 on: May 26, 2019, 03:56:55 PM »
Since permafrost is very slow to change, I see the map of discontinuous and continuous permafrost as a good proxy for regional climate. Individual seasons have no real effect on permafrost.

Given this, I find it very interesting that permafrost in eastern Canada extends 10 degrees latitude further south than western Canada.

bbr2314

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #409 on: May 26, 2019, 11:02:11 PM »
The models show intervals of warmth, but overall, Quebec looks to have the lowest 500MB heights in the hemisphere by the medium-long range. And it comes with... you guessed it...



Will it be sustainable? No. But will it be sufficient to retain cover through summer across the mountains? We shall see. I think this illustrates why Quebec has permafrost so much further south than western Canada -- it is both elevation, proximity to Hudson Bay's sea ice, and proximity to the Greenland ice cap. And, in recent years -- as in this year as well -- the worsening area of anomalies in the NATL.

The NATL anomalies have cooled further over the last 30 days as all the snowmelt has reached the ocean.


gerontocrat

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #410 on: May 29, 2019, 08:38:34 PM »
Rain in NE Canada will do the remaining snow a mischief
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #411 on: May 30, 2019, 10:13:43 AM »
https://ccin.ca/ccw/snow/current as at 29th May

Change since last posting?- less snow.

North America SCE and SWE staying within the +1 SD band. Despite the massive snow mass maximum, the only real effect seems to be the impact on the Spring / early summer floods down the Mississippi catchment (that drains half of the USA).

Eurasia a little bit above the +1 SD band. But as far as SWE is concerned, most of the anomaly looks like snow in the Himalayas and Tibet.

The warm and long afternoons and rapidly increasing insolation are killing off the snow as normal.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #412 on: May 31, 2019, 12:52:33 PM »
Start to say goodbye to Snow in NE Canada including the Torngat Mountains

Quebec - Ce n'est pas glacé

and that's all I'm going to say about that
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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bbr2314

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #413 on: May 31, 2019, 01:57:46 PM »
Start to say goodbye to Snow in NE Canada including the Torngat Mountains

Quebec - Ce n'est pas glacé

and that's all I'm going to say about that
Is that GFS output? It is always wrong. I would go with the CMC (it may show the same, I have not looked, but I doubt it does).

Shared Humanity

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #414 on: May 31, 2019, 09:22:12 PM »
Would they get May 31 wrong? That's today.

bbr2314

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #415 on: May 31, 2019, 09:43:19 PM »
Would they get May 31 wrong? That's today.

It is horrific, but the CMC appears to (mostly) agree as well by the end of its run.

gerontocrat

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #416 on: June 01, 2019, 10:47:03 AM »
https://ccin.ca/ccw/snow/current as at 31st May

Posting this as it is the end of the month and the beginning of another.

Change since last posting?- less snow.

North America SCE and SWE staying within the +1 SD band. Despite the massive snow mass maximum, the only real effect seems to be the impact on the Spring / early summer floods down the Mississippi catchment area (that drains half of the USA).

Eurasia a little bit above the +1 SD band. But as far as SWE is concerned, most of the anomaly looks like snow in the Himalayas and Tibet.

The warm and long afternoons and rapidly increasing insolation are killing off the snow as normal.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #417 on: June 01, 2019, 11:52:43 AM »
The Northern Hemisphere snow map from Environment Canada (@ https://ccin.ca/ccw/snow/current ) shows that the melting season in the high arctic latitudes is coming to an end without much drama.

Indeed, the greatest interest will be in South Asia, as the monsoon arrives and the extreme high snow mass in the Himalayas and the Tibetan plateau melts.

In the high Arctic attention switches to developments in the Tundra, permafrost melting, wildfires. So temperatures and precipitation are now what really matters. Does a dry Central Arctic Ocean mean higher rainfall on high latitude lands?

But as a reprise I kept images of North America snow extent for most days from late April. I attach the gif. I assume it will need a click, and it will go 6 times before stopping. The frame speed is low because I am slow, and at the end it takes a 3 second breather before recommencing.
« Last Edit: June 01, 2019, 12:03:12 PM by gerontocrat »
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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oren

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #418 on: June 01, 2019, 12:09:54 PM »
What could be really interesting is SWE statistics by major drainage areas (Mississippi Missouri, Mackenzie, Hudson Bay, St. Lawrence), both to assess flooding risk and possible effects on ocean regions. And maybe that will put an end to the Younger Dryas repetition claims, while focusing on the actual effects of too much winter snow.

bbr2314

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #419 on: June 01, 2019, 04:34:36 PM »
What could be really interesting is SWE statistics by major drainage areas (Mississippi Missouri, Mackenzie, Hudson Bay, St. Lawrence), both to assess flooding risk and possible effects on ocean regions. And maybe that will put an end to the Younger Dryas repetition claims, while focusing on the actual effects of too much winter snow.
Right, like the lack of a BOE in 2019 would put an end to the possibility of such an occurrence within the decade.  ::)

kassy

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #420 on: June 01, 2019, 04:44:31 PM »
Re 417: i really like that speed and i am not even that old.  ;)

Niall Dollard

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #421 on: June 06, 2019, 12:39:39 AM »
Rutgers nh snow cover extent for May 2019 was 17.06 million km2

A negative anomaly of just under 2 million km2

Much of western Canada and western Siberia was below normal with the only anomalously large area above normal being southern Quebec.

Looking at the downward bar trends for 2019 a negative anomaly of -3.0 million km2 looks on the cards for June. 

gerontocrat

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #422 on: June 08, 2019, 01:24:07 PM »
Which will melt out first, the Russian Blob or the Canadian Blob ?

When will those fragments in NE Canada finally expire?
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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Klondike Kat

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #423 on: June 08, 2019, 04:50:37 PM »
Which will melt out first, the Russian Blob or the Canadian Blob ?

When will those fragments in NE Canada finally expire?

Russia, definitely. 

Shared Humanity

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #424 on: June 08, 2019, 06:44:54 PM »
Rutgers nh snow cover extent for May 2019 was 17.06 million km2

A negative anomaly of just under 2 million km2

Much of western Canada and western Siberia was below normal with the only anomalously large area above normal being southern Quebec.

Looking at the downward bar trends for 2019 a negative anomaly of -3.0 million km2 looks on the cards for June.

That chart clearly shows that the trend towards large positive NH snow anomalies in the late fall and early winter due to the increase in atmospheric moisture will be consistently followed by large negative NH snow anomalies in the spring due to the onset of rapid melt driven by increased NH temperatures. Four straight years of this behavior is more than coincidence IMHO. What did the 1st five years of this decade look like?
« Last Edit: June 08, 2019, 10:30:17 PM by Shared Humanity »

Niall Dollard

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #425 on: June 10, 2019, 11:40:24 PM »
Rutgers nh snow cover extent for May 2019 was 17.06 million km2

A negative anomaly of just under 2 million km2

Much of western Canada and western Siberia was below normal with the only anomalously large area above normal being southern Quebec.

Looking at the downward bar trends for 2019 a negative anomaly of -3.0 million km2 looks on the cards for June.

That chart clearly shows that the trend towards large positive NH snow anomalies in the late fall and early winter due to the increase in atmospheric moisture will be consistently followed by large negative NH snow anomalies in the spring due to the onset of rapid melt driven by increased NH temperatures. Four straight years of this behavior is more than coincidence IMHO. What did the 1st five years of this decade look like?

Monthly anomalies for years 2010 to 2014 also show the rise in snow cover in the autumn and equally low snow cover in the crucial April to June period.

Looking at all these years together, 2017 was the only one with good snow cover in the April/May/June period.

Also see the massive -4.5 million km2 anomaly for June 2012. No doubt contributing to that sea ice extent June cliff.
« Last Edit: June 10, 2019, 11:45:46 PM by Niall Dollard »

Shared Humanity

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #426 on: June 11, 2019, 01:27:04 AM »
Thanks Niall. With the consistent early and strong melt of NH snow, we better hope we don't have a poor fall and early winter snow or we are in serious trouble.

Rod

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #427 on: June 12, 2019, 09:52:54 PM »
I think your new glacier is in trouble Bbr.

bbr2314

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #428 on: June 14, 2019, 11:56:31 PM »
I think your new glacier is in trouble Bbr.
I flew over Quebec today and snowcover was still plentiful in the mountains. Pics forthcoming.  ;D

Rod

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #429 on: June 15, 2019, 12:10:10 AM »
Nice bbr!  I can’t wait to see them.

bbr2314

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #430 on: June 15, 2019, 12:38:12 AM »
Location, sea ice (+ icebergs?), and SNOW! No one tell Greta that there were only three people in the 12-suite first class cabin and that I had a sitting suite and a sleeping suite (yay Singapore Airlines!)

Rod

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #431 on: June 15, 2019, 12:55:21 AM »
Congrats on the suite.  I can see a little bit of snow.  Too bad it was so cloudy.

bbr2314

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #432 on: June 15, 2019, 12:59:56 AM »
Congrats on the suite.  I can see a little bit of snow.  Too bad it was so cloudy.
Yes, and unfortunately the best pic is rotated poorly...

In any case, snowcover was abundant (though hard to capture) close to the coast. Once inland, it dropped off quite quickly.

HapHazard

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #433 on: June 15, 2019, 11:04:57 AM »
Snow on mountains, eh? Colour me surprised.

gerontocrat

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #434 on: June 15, 2019, 12:15:58 PM »
Snow on mountains, eh? Colour me surprised.
Merely surprised? No shock, horror, amazement. Is there an emoji for aghast?

From Environment Canada snow map of 14 June attached showing departure from average for all Arctic and another map for N. Ameriky snow cover extent only.

NE Canada has a few shreds left. Of greater interest is the CAA - mixed signals from GFS on temperatures and precipitation over the week or so. For how long will the snow hold out?
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #435 on: June 15, 2019, 01:15:26 PM »
North America Snow 2018-2019
And just a reminder that if only looking at the snow in N. America today the extraordinary event of February / March might never have happened.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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oren

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #436 on: June 15, 2019, 01:39:56 PM »
It turns out that excessively heavy winter snow serves for excessive spring meltwater, not for excessive spring snowcover.

bbr2314

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Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« Reply #437 on: June 15, 2019, 02:36:28 PM »
It turns out that excessively heavy winter snow serves for excessive spring meltwater, not for excessive spring snowcover.
Both occurred this year in Quebec...