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Author Topic: A list of missing feedbacks  (Read 34260 times)

wili

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Re: A list of missing feedbacks
« Reply #50 on: January 29, 2014, 09:02:11 PM »
Congrats, Geoff. If nothing else, this may put into the mix the idea that "uncertainties" are not likely to be in our favor.
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

Pmt111500

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Re: A list of missing feedbacks
« Reply #51 on: February 04, 2014, 06:36:34 AM »
A collection of feedbacks presented here, some of these might be considered double entries but here goes: http://robinwestenra.blogspot.co.nz/p/the-following-incorporates-additional.html
Cooling the outside by heat pump.

wili

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Re: A list of missing feedbacks
« Reply #52 on: November 07, 2015, 08:21:18 PM »
This isn't exactly part of a list, but it concerns feedbacks and the Arctic, so seems particularly relevant here:

Will the Arctic shift from a carbon sink to a carbon source?


http://theconversation.com/will-the-arctic-shift-from-a-carbon-sink-to-a-carbon-source-47826
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: A list of missing feedbacks
« Reply #53 on: June 12, 2019, 06:00:28 PM »
Bad weather increases energy use (which increases bad weather):
https://www.maritime-executive.com/article/global-energy-demand-increase-attributed-to-weather
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b_lumenkraft

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Re: A list of missing feedbacks
« Reply #54 on: June 12, 2019, 06:01:59 PM »
Good point!  :(

Tom_Mazanec

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Bugalugs

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Re: A list of missing feedbacks
« Reply #56 on: July 24, 2019, 11:58:02 PM »
Don't know if this has ever been discussed or quantified but whenever living costs increase, people will have to work harder or longer to pay and this will create more GHG.

Cost increases will include government "emergency measures" against climate change.

A circus?

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: A list of missing feedbacks
« Reply #57 on: August 17, 2019, 08:22:41 PM »
https://www.texasobserver.org/climate-change-will-drive-up-energy-use-in-texas-and-beyond/
Given these tight margins, a recent study published in Nature Communications about the effects of climate change on global energy demand seems especially troubling. Researchers estimate that climate change could drive up global energy demand by as much as 58 percent in the next 30 years.

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Oscillidous

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Re: A list of missing feedbacks
« Reply #58 on: August 19, 2019, 10:37:27 PM »
I apologize if this is pedantic, but is that not an understood/implied factor of continued warming? Heat island effect, yatta yatta. Civilization is a heat engine and a warm planet means more energy dedicated to cooling people down. There is no question that this is a positive human feedback to factor in. Crypto-mining is another underestimated source of warming.
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TerryM

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Re: A list of missing feedbacks
« Reply #59 on: August 20, 2019, 12:09:08 AM »
I apologize if this is pedantic, but is that not an understood/implied factor of continued warming? Heat island effect, yatta yatta. Civilization is a heat engine and a warm planet means more energy dedicated to cooling people down. There is no question that this is a positive human feedback to factor in. Crypto-mining is another underestimated source of warming.


But if we shut the mines down who will be responsible for the miners and their families?
They've spent their lives down there, digging Crypto from hard, unforgiving data. Now with their eyes shot from staring into flickering screens for untold hours, their fingers gnarled from data entry, you expect them to support themselves in the general economy!


These noble miners, and their dependents, will soon be dependent on nothing more than the dole. And you sir won't miss an hours sleep wondering if there couldn't have been another way - any way to - to alleviate their pain, to relieve them of the burden you've placed on their already hunch-ed backs.


For shame sir.
Terry

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: A list of missing feedbacks
« Reply #60 on: August 25, 2019, 02:00:39 PM »
Airconditioning is a biggie, and poised to get bigger, so here is some chance of reducing it:

Are there alternatives to air conditioning?
As summer temperatures rise, more buildings are installing energy-hungry air conditioners – a major contributor to climate change. But are there other ways to cool buildings down?
http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20190822-are-there-alternatives-to-air-conditioning
Quote
Of course, even in a passively cooled building in a well-designed city, sometimes these design measures are not going to be enough. In a hospital full of heat-generating equipment and vulnerable people, there will be cooling requirements that go beyond what passive systems can achieve. “Here, we don’t care about the energy so much – we just need to achieve the right thermal conditions indoors,” says Valladolid University’s Tejero González.

But the bottom line is that conventional air conditioning should be a last resort, not a crutch. Perhaps the most promising thing about passive cooling, McGregor adds, is that it offers a way out of the vicious cycle we are currently stuck in with air conditioning: using a technology to keep cool that actually contributes to heating the world up.
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Archimid

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Re: A list of missing feedbacks
« Reply #61 on: August 26, 2019, 01:12:21 AM »
Quote
“Here, we don’t care about the energy so much – we just need to achieve the right thermal conditions indoors,”

I'm pretty sure hospital directors in Puerto Rico thought something similar. Diesel would always be there for them, sadly in many cases it wasn't.


The optimal ambient operating temperature for a human body in a low activity state is about 20C-24C. Hotter than that, the body has to redirect resources to cool the body, impairing higher cognitive functions.

I believe, likely because where I live, that access to optimal temperature is a human right, like healthcare. As a civilization we should strive for every human to have access to optimal temperatures, specially as the globe warms.

However, that human requirement doesn't make the problem any less difficult. Removing heat has an energy cost. If all that energy was provided by the sun, then it wouldn't matter for emissions but it would matter for cost and general principles of sustainability. The energy use must be reduced as close as theoretical limit using architecture, planing, AI and more efficient powered and passive cooling technologies.

Indoor climate control is not just a matter of luxury. It is a necessity to maximize the human potential. We must design our society to both not emit and to provide the optimal environment for humans. That's the challenge.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

nanning

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Re: A list of missing feedbacks
« Reply #62 on: August 26, 2019, 06:57:35 AM »
Quote
The optimal ambient operating temperature for a human body in a low activity state is about 20C-24C. Hotter than that, the body has to redirect resources to cool the body, impairing higher cognitive functions.

I'm thinking about our African origins and don't understand the above stated optimal temperature range.
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TerryM

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Re: A list of missing feedbacks
« Reply #63 on: August 26, 2019, 09:05:30 AM »
Quote
The optimal ambient operating temperature for a human body in a low activity state is about 20C-24C. Hotter than that, the body has to redirect resources to cool the body, impairing higher cognitive functions.

I'm thinking about our African origins and don't understand the above stated optimal temperature range.
Think wet bulb temperatures.
Terry

nanning

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Re: A list of missing feedbacks
« Reply #64 on: August 26, 2019, 11:26:13 AM »
^^
You mean this optimal temperature range is for 100% humidity?
"It is preoccupation with possessions, more than anything else, that prevents us from living freely and nobly" - Bertrand Russell
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wili

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Re: A list of missing feedbacks
« Reply #65 on: August 26, 2019, 12:28:25 PM »
Arch wrote: "...necessity to maximize the human potential..."

Thanks for articulating what many see as the (or at least a) central purpose of modern societies.

But I think it is long past time to ask: 'human potential to do what?'

So far, mostly, human potential has been used to decimate the natural world.

I propose that we need a new central purpose, and that is to MINIMIZE human potential. Sounds radical, I know. But I would point out that the most important place to start minimizing human potential is with the most potent humans and institutions--the super-rich, the military...

If now isn't the time for a deep rethink of human priorities, when would that be?
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

Archimid

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Re: A list of missing feedbacks
« Reply #66 on: August 26, 2019, 01:24:19 PM »
Quote
'human potential to do what?'

To live long, well and happy. To serve a purpose in society. To do whatever their genetic potential + upbringing potential + life allows them to do best.

I agree that our combined footprint on the natural order of the world is causing a disruption so severe that it will destroy us. But that also allowed modern healthcare, education, modern food systems.

We can design a more efficient world that both lives in equilibrium with nature and makes our lives better. We must.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

TerryM

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Re: A list of missing feedbacks
« Reply #67 on: August 26, 2019, 01:29:41 PM »
^^
Survival if possible. Leaving the stage without destroying the set if not.
Terry

wili

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Re: A list of missing feedbacks
« Reply #68 on: August 26, 2019, 06:36:58 PM »
Are there lots of examples of humans improving the well being of other plants and animals, beyond those that immediately benefit themselves?

If so, I am all in favor of improving their potential.

I see little evidence of that (beyond a few efforts to 'save' most charismatic species that humans themselves had driven to the brink of extinction, which of course I am for).

wrt to Terry's 'survival'--again, survival for what. Have we collectively really earned the right to survive?
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

nanning

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Re: A list of missing feedbacks
« Reply #69 on: August 26, 2019, 06:54:20 PM »
Arch wrote: "...necessity to maximize the human potential..."

Thanks for articulating what many see as the (or at least a) central purpose of modern societies.

But I think it is long past time to ask: 'human potential to do what?'

So far, mostly, human potential has been used to decimate the natural world.

I propose that we need a new central purpose, and that is to MINIMIZE human potential. Sounds radical, I know. But I would point out that the most important place to start minimizing human potential is with the most potent humans and institutions--the super-rich, the military...

If now isn't the time for a deep rethink of human priorities, when would that be?

Thanks wili for that post. Someone who thinks of radical alternatives, great. :)
Alas, the reality is that hardly anybody thinks anymore in reality, let alone a rethink of human organisation and priorities in this enormous accelerating crisis we're in  :(.
The consumerists are stuck in 'the Dream of progressesion'. They are the drivers, influenced and manipulated by marketing, PR, advertising and mass media. Stuck in the prison of dreams. Increasingly further away from reality. Eye and ear candy.
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nanning

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Re: A list of missing feedbacks
« Reply #70 on: August 26, 2019, 07:01:45 PM »
<snip>
wrt to Terry's 'survival'--again, survival for what. Have we collectively really earned the right to survive?

Seeing the collective consequences (sorry to all peaceful nature tribes in history) I'd say NO. The human race (civilisation in specific) has by many people been described as a malign cancer, a killing virus.

Personally I'm concerned with biodiversity, the whole system of life on Earth, the only planet we known to contain complex lifeforms. I am not human-centric in that enormous sense. I look at the big picture.
"It is preoccupation with possessions, more than anything else, that prevents us from living freely and nobly" - Bertrand Russell
   Simple: minimize your possessions and be free and kind    It's just a mindset.       Refugees welcome

wili

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Re: A list of missing feedbacks
« Reply #71 on: August 26, 2019, 07:08:25 PM »
Thanks, nan. I was wondering if you might pipe in here.

There does seem to be quite a bit of resistance to deep rethinks in most circles. The US in particular has a long history of resisting much deep philosophical thought, but that resistance now seems to be a fundamental part of global industrial consumerist culture.

I have long been anticipating that this would change as more and more thoughtful people recognized the more and more obvious fact that humans (and of course modern global industrial consumerist culture in particular) are directly bringing about a (and perhaps the largest) great mass extinction event, as well as fundamentally altering basic global systems that have been supporting life on the planet for millions of years, and more.

But I haven't seen much evidence of this, besides a few voices like yours, JimD's, and maybe Bruce's and a few others here and beyond.

In fact, as major catastrophe is pretty clearly inevitable now, any such awakening, even if it were too late to really save much of the living systems on the planet, would be at least some consolation.

We like to think that one aspect of the at least the best of our human nature is to learn from our mistakes.

We have made about the biggest mistake (or set of mistakes) that could be imagined. But I see little evidence that as a global culture we are even willing to consider learning anything very important from it.
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

kassy

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Re: A list of missing feedbacks
« Reply #72 on: August 26, 2019, 07:50:29 PM »
Consumerism and related issues were promoted on purpose. It´s almost like someone read Huxleys Brave New World and thought lets make it so.

The breakthrough is discovering you don´t need SOMA pills. It can be buying clothes or just notifications these days.

And pills were pushed too and definitions of mental disorders changed etc.

For America war was made more distant to the general public. If you read War is a Racket you see that they are doing the reverse of what should be done according to Smedley Butler.

Society is always being engineered top down in a way.

We are now happy consumers who would like spending level to remain at least the same even if we worry about climate. And mitigating should not cost any money at least that is the first common response in the Netherlands to our transition plan.
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Re: A list of missing feedbacks
« Reply #73 on: August 26, 2019, 11:41:00 PM »
<snipped>

We are now happy consumers who would like spending level to remain at least the same even if we worry about climate. And mitigating should not cost any money at least that is the first common response in the Netherlands to our transition plan.
It should must pay for itself if not make a profit. :-\
Terry

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Re: A list of missing feedbacks
« Reply #74 on: August 27, 2019, 12:46:39 AM »
Quote
I'm thinking about our African origins and don't understand the above stated optimal temperature range.

Look up room temperature. That is the temperature where people at rest is neither hot nor cold, just comfortable. Hotter or colder and the temperature becomes uncomfortable, meaning resources have to be used to keep the body from over or under heating.

See this experiment:

Quote
Across five studies, the authors demonstrate that warm (versus cool) temperatures deplete resources, increase System 1 processing, and influence performance on complex choice tasks. Real-world lottery data (Pilot Study) and a lab experiment (Study 1) demonstrate the effect of temperature on complex choice: individuals are less likely to make difficult gambles in warmer temperatures. Study 2 implicates resource depletion as the underlying process; warm temperatures lower cognitive performance for non-depleted individuals, but don’t affect the performance of depleted individuals. Study 3 illustrates the moderating role of task complexity to show that warm temperatures are depleting and decrease willingness to make a difficult product choice. Study 4 juxtaposes the effects of depletion and temperature to reveal that warm temperatures hamper performance on complex tasks because of the participants’ increased reliance on System 1 (heuristic) processing.


https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2088973
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TerryM

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Re: A list of missing feedbacks
« Reply #75 on: August 27, 2019, 01:29:03 AM »
^^
In Canada we've known this for some time. 8)
Terry

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Re: A list of missing feedbacks
« Reply #76 on: August 27, 2019, 04:56:50 PM »

I have long been anticipating that this would change as more and more thoughtful people recognized the more and more obvious fact that humans (and of course modern global industrial consumerist culture in particular) are directly bringing about a (and perhaps the largest) great mass extinction event, as well as fundamentally altering basic global systems that have been supporting life on the planet for millions of years, and more.

But I haven't seen much evidence of this, besides a few voices like yours, JimD's, and maybe Bruce's and a few others here and beyond.

I'd like to add my name Wili's short list!  The climate crisis is not a problem that modernity needs to solve.  Modernity is a unsustainable disaster that humanity must learn to move past, or catastrophe awaits.  The human endeavor has lost its way in pursuit of growth and materialism.  Yes, modernity has brought enormous gains in health, nutrition and comfort to billions (almost entirely bought on unsustainable credit in the form of fossil fuels, btw), but it is destroying the biosphere and the human spirit.

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Re: A list of missing feedbacks
« Reply #77 on: August 27, 2019, 05:28:12 PM »
Quote
The optimal ambient operating temperature for a human body in a low activity state is about 20C-24C. Hotter than that, the body has to redirect resources to cool the body, impairing higher cognitive functions.

I'm thinking about our African origins and don't understand the above stated optimal temperature range.
Thermal comfort for humans is based on environmental factors including air temperature, humidity, air movement and radiation from hot and cold surfaces plus body conditions including metabolic rate (how much heat you are generating) and clothing level.  A good tool for predicting comfort can be found at https://cbe.berkeley.edu/project/thermal-comfort-tool/ . In general, the more control people have over their environment, the greater temperature range they will tolerate.  People in sealed buildings expect conditions to be controlled close to setpoints.  People in buildings with operable windows are happy with a wider range of conditions.

nanning

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Re: A list of missing feedbacks
« Reply #78 on: August 27, 2019, 06:41:00 PM »
Thank you cmcgugan and I see you're a new poster so Welcome :)

I think people should spend more time outside to acclimatize  8)  ;D
"It is preoccupation with possessions, more than anything else, that prevents us from living freely and nobly" - Bertrand Russell
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TerryM

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Re: A list of missing feedbacks
« Reply #79 on: August 28, 2019, 12:38:40 AM »
Thank you cmcgugan and I see you're a new poster so Welcome :)

I think people should spend more time outside to acclimatize  8) ;D
I think I would prefer to open the windows and let the whole house acclimatize as I kept the couch from blowing away.
Kind of like the old bull that prefered walking down the hill to "meat" ALL of the cows. ;)
Terry
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Re: A list of missing feedbacks
« Reply #80 on: August 28, 2019, 12:50:03 AM »
  People in buildings with operable windows are happy with a wider range of conditions.

 I wouldn't describe it as happy. More likely sweaty, stinky and uncomfortable.  When it gets hot enough it is hard to concentrate and think. During heatwaves crowded buildings without climate control are downright dangerous.
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Re: A list of missing feedbacks
« Reply #81 on: August 28, 2019, 01:59:20 PM »
  People in buildings with operable windows are happy with a wider range of conditions.

 I wouldn't describe it as happy. More likely sweaty, stinky and uncomfortable.  When it gets hot enough it is hard to concentrate and think. During heatwaves crowded buildings without climate control are downright dangerous.

Another nitpicking event. It's a common term, he could have said "content" or satisfied" or "comfortable" it does not matter, it's obvious what was meant and it's correct what he says hence there is no reason to debate over the word happy that is often commonly use to express other things than the original meaning of "happiness".

Last but not least "happiness" is one of the most abused and misunderstood terms anyway and to discuss that exactly here in reply to a obviously correct statement on a totally different topic is
one of the most disruptive things that happens on many but especially on this forum where most users are well educated and feel like a kind of little "teachers".

I don't think that a person who is interested, knowledgeable and posting on the topic at hand needs any kind of teaching about the word happy. If we would start to discuss the real meaning (definition) of the word happy, he would probably know quite well what the original meaning is/was.

As someone wrote to day. The future of humanity is a philosophical problem and the philosophy to cut the whole into ever tinier fields of expertise and then nitpick (cherry pick) on all kinds of things to either deny what we don't like or want to hear and for "i also want to say something" reasons, is not one that will bring sustainability, objectivity and will not get us rid of the never ending and destructive competition for self profiling.

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Re: A list of missing feedbacks
« Reply #82 on: August 31, 2019, 01:33:35 AM »
x-post from geoengineering thread.

It seems this could explain some of the hydroxyl reduction, and methane concentration spikes. If more open water, then more waves. More waves, more spray. More spray, more hydroxyl reduction from the below H2o2 reaction.

"tests confirmed that water microdroplets spontaneously form hydrogen peroxide, that smaller microdroplets produced higher concentrations of the molecule, and that hydrogen peroxide was not lost when the microdroplets recombined into bulk water.

The researchers ruled out a number of possible explanations before arriving at what they argue is the most likely explanation for hydrogen peroxide's presence. They suggest that a strong electric field near the surface of water microdroplets in air triggers hydroxyl molecules to bind into hydrogen peroxide."

https://phys.org/news/2019-08-chemists-microdroplets-spontaneously-hydrogen-peroxide.html

www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.1911883116

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: A list of missing feedbacks
« Reply #83 on: September 13, 2019, 10:32:28 PM »
CLIMATE CHANGE MAY REDUCE ABILITY OF SOIL TO ABSORB WATER—A KEY STORE OF CARBON DIOXIDE
https://www.newsweek.com/climate-change-soil-water-1458983
Quote
limate change is degrading the ability of soils to absorb water, according to a study published in the journal Science Advances.

This could have implications for global warming, because water in the soil plays an important role in storing carbon dioxide—the most important greenhouse gas. Increases in CO2 in the atmosphere are helping to warm the planet due to its heat-trapping effect.

Climate change is expected to bring increased rainfall to certain regions of the world, which, along with other environmental changes, could lead to less infiltration of water into the soil, the researchers say.
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