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Klondike Kat

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Re: Elections 2018 USA
« Reply #50 on: October 13, 2018, 03:22:29 PM »
Democrats abandon rural/labour consituencies in favour of cities: Wilson at the Hill on Minnesota

"The Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party, some worry, is losing the farmer and the laborer."

https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/411172-how-americas-urban-rural-divide-is-changing-the-democratic-party

sidd

The Democratic Party has been losing the rural farm vote for almost a century now.  This started with the New Deal, which promoted large industrialized farms at the expense of the small farmer.  These policies expanded after WWII, further alienating the small farmer from government.  One of the biggest programs pushing out the small farmer was the 1960s farm bills, which supplied direct payments to large farms in order to lower food prices.  Then came the farm crisis of the 80s.  Comparing the elections of 1916 and 2016, the Democrats won 30 states (mostly south and west) and 277 EVs, while the Republican won only 18 states (mostly north and east) and 254 EVs.  Imaging the Democrats today winning rural WY, OK, or MS, and the GOP winning urban NY, IL, and MA!

SteveMDFP

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Re: Elections 2018 USA
« Reply #51 on: October 14, 2018, 12:11:26 AM »
Democrats abandon rural/labour consituencies in favour of cities: Wilson at the Hill on Minnesota

"The Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party, some worry, is losing the farmer and the laborer."

https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/411172-how-americas-urban-rural-divide-is-changing-the-democratic-party

sidd

The Democratic Party has been losing the rural farm vote for almost a century now.  This started with the New Deal, which promoted large industrialized farms at the expense of the small farmer.  These policies expanded after WWII, further alienating the small farmer from government.  One of the biggest programs pushing out the small farmer was the 1960s farm bills, which supplied direct payments to large farms in order to lower food prices.  Then came the farm crisis of the 80s.  Comparing the elections of 1916 and 2016, the Democrats won 30 states (mostly south and west) and 277 EVs, while the Republican won only 18 states (mostly north and east) and 254 EVs.  Imaging the Democrats today winning rural WY, OK, or MS, and the GOP winning urban NY, IL, and MA!

I quite agree that the Democratic Party tends to overlook a natural constituency by not appealing to rural communities.  But rural people overall are not all about farming.  That's an occupation for a minority of rural workers:

Beyond the Farm: Rural Industry Workers in America
https://www.census.gov/newsroom/blogs/random-samplings/2016/12/beyond_the_farm_rur.html

Affordable high-speed internet access might be a high priority for these people.  Availability of first-responder services might be another.  General health care services another.  Transportation needs are big.  How do we wean rural folks from petrol-powered cars in a way that works for them?  There won't be many super-chargers for EVs unless policies are put into place to subsidize/require charging stations.

These are complex issues.  Time to think seriously about them.

mostly_lurking

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Re: Elections 2018 USA
« Reply #52 on: October 14, 2018, 08:08:21 AM »
Saturday update:  Dem still at 205 and another bump up for GOP to 201.
« Last Edit: October 14, 2018, 04:58:08 PM by mostly_lurking »

Klondike Kat

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Re: Elections 2018 USA
« Reply #53 on: October 14, 2018, 05:49:56 PM »
Saturday update:  Dem still at 205 and another bump up for GOP to 201.

Yes, the Senate is almost a foregone conclusion.  The GOP could also gain a seat or two.  The House is still up for grabs, and could go either way.

sidd

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Re: Elections 2018 USA
« Reply #54 on: October 14, 2018, 08:54:32 PM »
Scholten runs an old school campaign to unseat rabidly right wing republican in Iowa:

"Scholten has a 39-county strategy"

 “Democrats have to get back to that model of showing up and listening and letting people know you care,”

 "Scholten considers local news some of the last trusted sources remaining; his ad strategy includes print, TV, but also radio, which farmers listen to in the fields."

“He’s using rural newspapers in a way I haven’t seen from a congressional candidate in my career,”

Show them how, Scholten.

https://theintercept.com/2018/10/13/jd-scholten-monopolies-not-immigrants-steve-king/

sidd

sidd

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Re: Elections 2018 USA
« Reply #55 on: October 16, 2018, 06:27:55 AM »
Health care. It's what voters care about:

--

Brown blames Congress. Both parties.“They should have exactly what we have” for care, she suggested. “They’re servants of the people. Isn’t that what they say?”

Her three-month supply of eye drops used to be $200. Now it’s $700 for two months. “What can you cut?” Brenenborg said. “You can’t cut your utilities. You can’t cut your house payments.”

“They’ll only take half a pill, or they’ll skip a day—that’s real common,” she said. “I’m fearful of where it’s going. Where does it stop?”

Rickert, meanwhile, was out of work for six months last year because of a rib she fractured on the job and then pneumonia and other ensuing complications—and she lost her health insurance because of it, she said. She recently started with a new company, still as a nurse, mainly to get more affordable health care. It’s been disillusioning. “There’s no protection for people who get sick who are employed,” Rickert said. “Over time, it doesn’t matter. And medicine is a business. It’s not about people.”  ... Her daughter and health insurance on her mind ... “How can she afford it,” Rickert asked, “if I can hardly afford it?” "

https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2018/10/15/pennsylvania-elections-2018-senior-citizens-health-care-221302

sidd

TerryM

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Re: Elections 2018 USA
« Reply #56 on: October 17, 2018, 05:49:28 PM »
Warren alienates Native Americans and may have ended her chances for a 2020 run for the Presidency.

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/10/16/warren-dna-native-american-905705

I doubt that her opposition in the 2018 Senate race is in a position to take advantage.
Some wag opined that if she can be called "Native American", then a beef stew could be referred to as a "carrot". :)

Democrats need every minority vote.
Terry

mostly_lurking

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Re: Elections 2018 USA
« Reply #57 on: October 17, 2018, 06:04:51 PM »
Warren alienates Native Americans and may have ended her chances for a 2020 run for the Presidency.

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/10/16/warren-dna-native-american-905705

I doubt that her opposition in the 2018 Senate race is in a position to take advantage.
Some wag opined that if she can be called "Native American", then a beef stew could be referred to as a "carrot". :)



Democrats need every minority vote.
Terry

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Re: Elections 2018 USA
« Reply #58 on: October 17, 2018, 06:09:09 PM »
As a whole, the Dem party is not very good at optics. I wish we'd move away from "how things look" and "we aren't Trump" and into "what we plan to do". Despite reality tv, I think a clear plan/path is more salable than what we've been doing...

TerryM

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Re: Elections 2018 USA
« Reply #59 on: October 17, 2018, 06:15:56 PM »
As a whole, the Dem party is not very good at optics. I wish we'd move away from "how things look" and "we aren't Trump" and into "what we plan to do". Despite reality tv, I think a clear plan/path is more salable than what we've been doing...
Ramen!


Less "Russia - Russia - Russia".
More "Healthcare, Education, Peace"


Terry

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Re: Elections 2018 USA
« Reply #60 on: October 17, 2018, 06:35:31 PM »
Trump vs Warren, the press can't lose and will happily kill those two birds with one stone, except that the fascist clownbird isn't hit. They will gladly take out Warren to remind everyone that we mustn't be too radical. And poor Warren, trying to keep everybody happy, the progressives, the corporatists...
Compare, compare, compare

sidd

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Re: Elections 2018 USA
« Reply #61 on: October 17, 2018, 08:14:52 PM »
Sherrod Brown is looking better ...

sidd

sidd

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Re: Elections 2018 USA
« Reply #62 on: October 18, 2018, 12:14:35 AM »
Stankorb on the little, lost forlorn places: sacrifice zones of late stage capitalism.

"My hometown no longer feels like home."

"They and their few remaining neighbors were cushioned by the happenstance of settling down when times were bad but not busted, a decade or two before bankers perfected the exploitation of the American dream."

"There have been rounds of drug busts. My mom emailed me when a previous neighbor was arrested for trafficking heroin. "

"they’ve finally knocked old Trumpie’s house"

"in 2016, for the first time in my life, the majority of people in my home county voted for a Republican candidate."

“Bob’s house might be next,”

" “The house next door didn’t sell,” ... Their former next-door neighbor, a man in his sixties who couldn’t earn enough as a Walmart greeter, has moved out. After the foreclosure, he squatted in the house for close to a year with the curtains drawn. "

"this one too might be demolished."

"Even if they can sell their house, it wouldn’t be enough for a down payment elsewhere. But they can’t stay in this big, aging house, full of stairs, my mom on a walker and my dad with his breathing. They manage, through the sheer force of my father’s will, his insistence on taking care of them both. But I see no other way to get them out. I’ve asked. They refuse."

"my people were Rust Belt people, I was told. Those words were supposed to encapsulate the decay, the abandoned workplaces, the rampant unemployment. We were seen by outsiders as wasted people, rotting with disuse."

"there was often nowhere else for them to go."

"my mother described the death of a neighbor, the mother of friends, who had stopped breathing. City revenue had fallen so much that the ambulances were outsourced from a nearby town, and the driver couldn’t find our street. She hadn’t been breathing for some time when they finally arrived.

I tried to imagine what it would be like to lose my mother to poverty—because that’s really what killed our neighbor—then realized the same thing could happen to my mother easily. I tried not to think about it.

When friends’ parents succumbed to preventable diseases, I never thought to blame poverty for the check-ups and scans they never had."

"A local injection well was dug incorrectly—that is, directly into a fault line—and over a year, in quiet northeast Ohio, there were a dozen earthquakes. Plaster in my parents’ walls buckled. Fissures tricked up the walls and became cracks. "

"I used to think the decline in my hometown was Rust Belt-specific, but now wonder how many neighborhoods in collapse it takes for a country to lose its sense of self. "

"I think of all the commentary on these poor, white neighborhoods ... become another caste we hypothesize about in generalizations, and my parents are trapped here."

" the Democrats have not learned what they should from those elusive, poor, white Trump voters"

"But tangled in with the overtly racist, anti-Muslim, anti-woman Trump supporters are the why should I still vote Democrat, nothing ever changes people whose poverty left them alienated enough they felt justified looking the other way about the rest. It was a vote, not full-fledged support. It wasn’t right. But sequestering them isn’t either—especially not for people like my parents who don’t agree with any of it but are just stuck. (Financial freedom gives people the power to choose their neighbors. Poverty does not.)

Much as we’ve spent generations trying to deny America’s inherent racism, we’ve also always been eager to forget the poor. Our classism is yet another original sin."

https://catapult.co/stories/fabric-of-community-gone-threadbare

sidd

« Last Edit: October 18, 2018, 12:20:59 AM by sidd »

sidd

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Re: Elections 2018 USA
« Reply #63 on: October 18, 2018, 05:12:53 AM »
Health care on everyone's mind:

"Ms Daly tells me "nobody" she knows can afford healthcare anymore. "

"WVHR saw 21,000 patients before the ACA. After the law, that number dipped to 15,500, suggesting that fewer patients were in dire need - but that welcome news only lasted so long.

"Now we have 26,211 patients," says Mrs Angie Settle ... "

"The nurse practitioner says many of the insurance plans required patients to cover the first $5,000 to $10,000 of their costs.

"It might as well have been $5 million because these people are living paycheck to paycheck. It was totally beyond their reach," Mrs Settle says. "

"It'll basically boil down to one of two theories - healthcare is a fundamental right, or, healthcare is a marketplace."

"Donald Trump doesn't give a crap about me. Hillary Clinton didn't give a crap about me,"

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-45880506

sidd

sidd

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Re: Elections 2018 USA
« Reply #64 on: October 23, 2018, 05:07:59 AM »
Earlier in this thread i posted about a democratic candidate (Scholten)  using small town newspapers (yeah, they're still around)

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2385.msg176997.html#msg176997

Trump does the same:

"In October, Trump has done at least 10 local interviews ..."

" " ... they really treat us well,” Trump said, with his walk-off song, The Rolling Stones’ “You Can’t Always Get You Want,” still playing in the background. "

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/10/22/trump-local-media-925438

sidd

Sleepy

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Re: Elections 2018 USA
« Reply #65 on: October 25, 2018, 09:35:40 AM »
As a whole, the Dem party is not very good at optics. I wish we'd move away from "how things look" and "we aren't Trump" and into "what we plan to do". Despite reality tv, I think a clear plan/path is more salable than what we've been doing...
Ramen!


Less "Russia - Russia - Russia".
>>More "Healthcare, Education, Peace"<<


Terry
Terry, your comment got me thinking about an 18 year old Swedish comedy sketch. English subtitling.


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sidd

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Re: Elections 2018 USA
« Reply #66 on: October 30, 2018, 12:31:48 AM »
When elephants fight, the mice suffer: Adelson and Buffet tussle in Nevada over electricity, Adelson at 20 million Buffett twice as much. Best democracy money can buy.

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/10/27/adelson-buffett-nevada-890190

sidd

Pmt111500

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Re: Elections 2018 USA
« Reply #67 on: October 30, 2018, 07:13:06 AM »
Please make sure your vote is going to the correct person. On several states that republicans have previously won, the election is done by electronic means. This means tampering with the votes is possible in many ways way easier than inventing districts and filling the paper ballots by non-existent people. I'm not saying republicans cheat on this respect, it's just odd that people would vote such idiots.
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Klondike Kat

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Re: Elections 2018 USA
« Reply #68 on: October 30, 2018, 07:35:09 PM »
Please make sure your vote is going to the correct person. On several states that republicans have previously won, the election is done by electronic means. This means tampering with the votes is possible in many ways way easier than inventing districts and filling the paper ballots by non-existent people. I'm not saying republicans cheat on this respect, it's just odd that people would vote such idiots.

Better make sure your vote is counted correctly.  Many electronic machines are touch-sensitive; meaning that an errant finger may change your vote.  History has shown that these machines have changed Democratic votes to Republicans and Republican votes to Democrats.  The makers of the machines claim that it is in the calibration.  Seems rather dubious that a machine can be calibrated differently.  Perhaps it is just media reporting that Republican votes are switched in blue states and Democratic votes are switched in red states.

DrTskoul

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Re: Elections 2018 USA
« Reply #69 on: October 31, 2018, 12:20:56 AM »
. Straight D as always...
“You can know the name of a bird in all the languages of the world, but when you're finished, you'll know absolutely nothing whatever about the bird... So let's look at the bird and see what it's doing -- that's what counts.”
― Richard P. Feynman

sidd

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Re: Elections 2018 USA
« Reply #70 on: November 01, 2018, 04:50:35 AM »
There are important issues on the ballot other than election of individuals.

Rent control in California: "Landlords and developers have spent $45.5 million to defeat Proposition 10 while pro-Proposition 10 forces have spent almost $24 million ..."

"Blackstone Group, the world’s largest real estate management firm, has contributed $6,859,747 to defeat Proposition 10. Blackstone group after the 2008 economic crises bought 13,000 single-family homes in California turning them into rentals. When a tenant leaves now, Blackstone can now jack up rent for the new tenant as much as they want, extracting huge profit from the homes they own. Blackstone Group owns $119 billion in real estate assets."

https://www.counterpunch.org/2018/10/31/the-big-battle-over-rent-control/

And in Colorado fossil fuels mount a challenge:

"Amendment 74, a simple-sounding measure that would radically alter the state's constitution to give fossil fuel giants the power to sue state and local governments for imposing regulations that threaten their dirty profits."

"The fossil fuel industry's decision to dump millions of dollars into pushing Amendment 74 was sparked by the emergence of Proposition 112 ..."

https://www.commondreams.org/news/2018/10/31/dire-warnings-other-states-and-planet-big-oil-pushes-sneaky-nuclear-option-protect

sidd

Pmt111500

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Re: Elections 2018 USA
« Reply #71 on: November 01, 2018, 05:11:27 AM »
And then there's of course the possibility the state laws prevent you from voting. https://www.daytondailynews.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/ohio-must-allow-purged-voters-vote-court-rules/X8UVz9eyEul83STIVa0UCO/
 this sort of voter suppression is not done in a democracy, but the current republicans may want to end it (the democracy)

Some North Dakotan republicans want to block members of a native american tribe from voting. https://mobile.twitter.com/maddow/status/1057764048488538112
« Last Edit: November 01, 2018, 05:47:15 AM by Pmt111500 »
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Klondike Kat

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Re: Elections 2018 USA
« Reply #72 on: November 01, 2018, 02:52:56 PM »
And then there's of course the possibility the state laws prevent you from voting. https://www.daytondailynews.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/ohio-must-allow-purged-voters-vote-court-rules/X8UVz9eyEul83STIVa0UCO/
 this sort of voter suppression is not done in a democracy, but the current republicans may want to end it (the democracy)

I think you have this backwards; the Republicans want to continue the practice, while the Democrats want to end it.

Some North Dakotan republicans want to block members of a native american tribe from voting. https://mobile.twitter.com/maddow/status/1057764048488538112

SteveMDFP

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Re: Elections 2018 USA
« Reply #73 on: November 01, 2018, 03:01:34 PM »


I think you have this backwards; the Republicans want to continue the practice, while the Democrats want to end it.
 

If you mean the practice of purging voters from the rolls for not voting in 6 years, you're right.
Lots of people only vote in elections in which they have strong feelings about a candidate.
If they only want to vote every 8 or 10 years, why should that mean they should be disenfranchised?

Klondike Kat

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Re: Elections 2018 USA
« Reply #74 on: November 01, 2018, 07:11:52 PM »


I think you have this backwards; the Republicans want to continue the practice, while the Democrats want to end it.
 

If you mean the practice of purging voters from the rolls for not voting in 6 years, you're right.
Lots of people only vote in elections in which they have strong feelings about a candidate.
If they only want to vote every 8 or 10 years, why should that mean they should be disenfranchised?

It was the default method of purging those who died or moved away.  There is no other process to remove these voters.  In most states it is longer, usually 10 years (that covers two presidential elections).  We may need a better method to ensure voters are only registered in one precinct.  Many snowbirds are registered in both their summer and winter home.

mostly_lurking

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Re: Elections 2018 USA
« Reply #75 on: November 02, 2018, 10:48:32 AM »
My Mid-Term Predictions

Lurk is back!  8)

I agree with your predictions although the house could go Dem by a couple seats.
Watching all these prediction of Dems gaining 40 seats and more is hilarious.

Neven

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Re: Elections 2018 USA
« Reply #76 on: November 02, 2018, 11:58:24 AM »
nor Pelsoi's BS on the late show. She was the motivating factor behind the numbers above.

My goodness (and poor, poor Colbert, although he is rich and famous now):

Compare, compare, compare

mostly_lurking

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Re: Elections 2018 USA
« Reply #77 on: November 02, 2018, 12:09:01 PM »

There is nothing in the US political electoral system that I can find legitimate or reasonable. The most UNDEMOCRATIC 'western' nation on planet Earth bar none. It's a disgrace and 'the idiots' put up with it. There is no other word that suits better.

When the GOP wins they have no reason to change it since it benefits them usually and when the Dems win..well, it worked for them THAT TIME and it's too hot a potato to tackle.

Klondike Kat

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Re: Elections 2018 USA
« Reply #78 on: November 02, 2018, 05:19:13 PM »
My Mid-Term Predictions

Lurk is back!  8)

I agree with your predictions although the house could go Dem by a couple seats.
Watching all these prediction of Dems gaining 40 seats and more is hilarious.

Yes, Dems could still win the majority. But "My Open Source Investigative Analysis" :) concludes today they are still "likely" 5 seats off the mark -- not 30+ ahead.

I don't believe the hype, the media reports, nate silver's pitches or RCP averages, nor Pelsoi's BS on the late show. She was the motivating factor behind the numbers above.

btw Rick Scott (R) should win Florida in a canter, imho.

PS did you know that in CA they have combined Primaries, where every candidate every party have to compete against each other? Only the top two Primary vote getters then go on the Ballot for their particular District seat. So many Districts are given the amazing choice between voting for a Democrat or voting for a Democrat - no one else is on the ticket.

There is nothing in the US political electoral system that I can find legitimate or reasonable. The most UNDEMOCRATIC 'western' nation on planet Earth bar none. It's a disgrace and 'the idiots' put up with it. There is no other word that suits better.

I tend to agree.  The same pundits who predicted Clinton would win with 300+ EVs are back predicting a 40+ seat Democratic gain in the House.  While this is certainly possible, it appears to be on the far edge of probability.  We will see if they are over polling Democratic support.

Currently, there are 193 Democrats in the House.  RCP has its current projection at 203 Ds, 196 Rs and 36 races that are tossups, for a Democratic gain of 10 seats.  The democrats would need to win 30 of those 36 tossup races to reach a 40-seat gain, many of which have incumbent Republicans.  Of the races characterized as tossups, they are almost evenly split between a slight D polling advantage, slight R polling advantage, or no advantage.  Baring a major demographic shift between now and Tuesday, I would say the likely range is between either party winning between 12 and 24 of the tossup races.  Hence the House would range between 227-208 Democratic advantage to 220-215 Republican advantage. 

The Senate will range between 50:50 and 54-46 Republican advantage.  RCP currently projects 50 Republicans, 44 Democrats, and 6 tossup races.  The Democrats need a clean sweep of the tossup races just to get even in the Senate, which is possible.  Unless the GOP can unseat Tester and Donnelly, I think 54 is their max.  A blue wave?  More likely a small wave, if they perform well; a blue ripple, if not.  Certainly not the tsunami that many had been hoping for earlier.

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Re: Elections 2018 USA
« Reply #79 on: November 02, 2018, 05:28:20 PM »
The Senate will range between 50:50 and 54-46 Republican advantage.  RCP currently projects 50 Republicans, 44 Democrats, and 6 tossup races.  The Democrats need a clean sweep of the tossup races just to get even in the Senate, which is possible.  Unless the GOP can unseat Tester and Donnelly, I think 54 is their max.  A blue wave?  More likely a small wave, if they perform well; a blue ripple, if not.  Certainly not the tsunami that many had been hoping for earlier.

Just the way the donors want it.
Compare, compare, compare

Tor Bejnar

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Re: Elections 2018 USA
« Reply #80 on: November 02, 2018, 06:04:53 PM »
Quote
RCP has its current projection at 203 Ds, 196 Rs and 36 races that are tossups
Some who look to past elections to gain insights into the current one claim that 'tossup' seats usually swing largely one way or the other and are seldom split about even.  Plus, frequently, 2 or 3 seats deemed 'fairly safe' flip.  With this input, I suggest the US House of Representatives will, come January 3, have (all approximations) either 210 or 235 Democrats (with either 225 or 200 Republicans), or a shift of either 17 (±5) or 42 (±5) seats.  Maybe the Ds take over chairmanships, or maybe not!
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Klondike Kat

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Re: Elections 2018 USA
« Reply #81 on: November 05, 2018, 04:18:57 PM »
What do I see coming Tuesday?  I see the GOP gaining in the Senate.  This was an uphill battle from the start for the Democrats, an it appears they will fall short.  The House is more interesting.  It could go any number of ways.  I think the media has over-hyped the blue wave, but it could still materialize.  The Democrats will definitely gain the seats.  The only question is how many.  My guess is they take barely enough to regain a House majority.  This would make legislating interesting, as such an even breakdown requires bi-partisan support to function (not that Congress ever functions reasonably).

sidd

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Re: Elections 2018 USA
« Reply #82 on: November 05, 2018, 11:26:25 PM »
Chris Hedges at truthdig on voting for scum:

"Scum versus scum. That sums up this election season. Is it any wonder that 100 million Americans don’t bother to vote?"

"The securities and finance industry has backed Democratic congressional candidates 63 percent to 37 percent over Republicans, according to data collected by the Center for Responsive Politics. Democratic candidates and political action committees have received $56.8 million, compared with Republicans’ $33.4 million, the center reported. The broader sector of finance, insurance and real estate, it found, has given $174 million to Democratic candidates, against $157 million to Republicans. And Michael Bloomberg, weighing his own presidential run, has pledged $100 million to elect a Democratic Congress."

"[Democrats] core battle cry is: We are not Trump! This is ultimately a losing formula. "

"You cannot use the word “liberty” when your government, as ours does, watches you 24 hours a day and stores all of your personal information in government computers in perpetuity. You cannot use the word “liberty” when you are the most photographed and monitored population in human history. You cannot use the word “liberty” when it is impossible to vote against the interests of Goldman Sachs or General Dynamics. You cannot use the word “liberty” when the state empowers militarized police to use indiscriminate lethal force against unarmed citizens in the streets of American cities. You cannot use the word “liberty” when 2.3 million citizens, mostly poor people of color, are held in the largest prison system on earth. This is the relationship between a master and a slave. The choice is between whom we want to clamp on our chains—a jailer who mouths politically correct bromides or a racist, Christian fascist. Either way we are shackled."

https://www.truthdig.com/articles/scum-vs-scum/

sidd

sidd

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Re: Elections 2018 USA
« Reply #83 on: November 05, 2018, 11:33:59 PM »
Laursen at counterpunch presents a case for abstention:

"non-voters have been sending an increasingly loud and consistent message for at least 50 years now: we’ve lost our faith in electoral democracy. "

"a deep disillusionment that’s been growing for decades with an electoral democracy that becomes less democratic all the time, a sclerotic and highly institutionalized two-party system"

"Voting affirms the present system. It signifies our assent ... It maneuvers potentially revolutionary social movements into unthreatening political channels (the best decision Black Lives Matter ever made was to not endorse candidates). It nudges us to blame specific policies and politicians, rather than take a desperately needed hard look at electoral democracy itself."

" The right to say No to the whole damn thing is the most powerful political weapon we have as members of this or any society, because it denies the State legitimacy. "

" the worst thing about voting: it distracts us from the need to explore, collectively, without mediation by governments or politicians, how we can manage our future. "

https://www.counterpunch.org/2018/11/05/why-im-not-voting/

sidd

DrTskoul

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Re: Elections 2018 USA
« Reply #84 on: November 06, 2018, 02:00:52 AM »
Laursen at counterpunch presents a case for abstention:

"non-voters have been sending an increasingly loud and consistent message for at least 50 years now: we’ve lost our faith in electoral democracy. "

"a deep disillusionment that’s been growing for decades with an electoral democracy that becomes less democratic all the time, a sclerotic and highly institutionalized two-party system"

"Voting affirms the present system. It signifies our assent ... It maneuvers potentially revolutionary social movements into unthreatening political channels (the best decision Black Lives Matter ever made was to not endorse candidates). It nudges us to blame specific policies and politicians, rather than take a desperately needed hard look at electoral democracy itself."

" The right to say No to the whole damn thing is the most powerful political weapon we have as members of this or any society, because it denies the State legitimacy. "

" the worst thing about voting: it distracts us from the need to explore, collectively, without mediation by governments or politicians, how we can manage our future. "

https://www.counterpunch.org/2018/11/05/why-im-not-voting/

sidd

The power of no is what makes a Brexit possible...no voting is abdication of one's civic responsibility....
“You can know the name of a bird in all the languages of the world, but when you're finished, you'll know absolutely nothing whatever about the bird... So let's look at the bird and see what it's doing -- that's what counts.”
― Richard P. Feynman

oren

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Re: Elections 2018 USA
« Reply #85 on: November 06, 2018, 04:56:16 AM »
If all the disenfranchised and disillusioned people rose up as one to actually vote, things could be very different.

sidd

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Re: Elections 2018 USA
« Reply #86 on: November 06, 2018, 05:19:00 AM »
Re:If all the disenfranchised and disillusioned people rose up as one to actually vote

as Chris Hedges asked, and I quoted a few posts ago,

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2385.msg179644.html#msg179644

Which scum shall they vote for ?

sidd

mostly_lurking

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Re: Elections 2018 USA
« Reply #87 on: November 06, 2018, 11:49:45 AM »
The last sentence of this monumental "speech" is the reason I think the GOP's will do well.
The same people will want to feel this again.




sidd

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Re: Elections 2018 USA
« Reply #88 on: November 06, 2018, 10:17:12 PM »
Sjursen at antiwar on one issue studiously ignored in this election:

"But none, I repeat, none, say a thing about American foreign policy, the nation’s ongoing wars, or the exploding, record defense budget. You see, in 2018, despite being engrossed in the longest war in US history, the citizenry – both on Main Street and Wall Street – display nothing but apathy on the subject of America’s clearly faltering foreign policy."

"Both mainstream wings of the Republicans and Democrats like it that way. They practice the politics of distraction and go on tacitly supporting one indecisive intervention after another, all the while basking in the embarrassment of riches bestowed upon them by the corporate military industrial complex. Everyone wins, except, that is, the soldiers doing multiple tours of combat duty, and – dare I say – the people of the Greater Middle East, who live in an utterly destabilized nightmare of a region."

" there may be some distinction between Republican and Democratic policies; but on the profound issues of war and peace, there is precious little daylight between the two parties. That, right there, is a formula for perpetual war."

"This November 6th is profound because it demonstrates, once and for all, the utter vacuousness of American politics."

"no one – not the generals or the civilian policymakers – seems capable of articulating an exit strategy. Maybe there just isn’t any."

"none of that will be on the ballot today ... They’ll be casting ballots based on the illusion of differentiation between two highly corporate political entities that are squarely in the pocket of the weapons’ industry and their Wall Street financiers. And, tonight, when the media outlets dazzle their viewers with holograms, charts, and other neat toys depicting the day’s winners and losers – not one station will even utter that naughty word: Afghanistan."

https://original.antiwar.com/Danny_Sjursen/2018/11/05/2012334409/

sidd

Tor Bejnar

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Re: Elections 2018 USA
« Reply #89 on: November 07, 2018, 06:13:02 PM »
On Nov. 2 I wrote, "a shift [to the Ds in the House] of either 17 (±5) or 42 (±5) seats".  With a shift of only 32-35 [whatever it turns out to be - edit: 34 changed to 35], this election is decidedly less 'wavy' then I expected, and represents slightly more change than is average for the mid-term election during a President's first term.
« Last Edit: November 07, 2018, 07:54:09 PM by Tor Bejnar »
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

Klondike Kat

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Re: Elections 2018 USA
« Reply #90 on: November 07, 2018, 07:03:48 PM »
On Nov. 2 I wrote, "a shift [to the Ds in the House] of either 17 (±5) or 42 (±5) seats".  With a shift of only 32-34 [whatever it turns out to be], this election is decidedly less 'wavy' then I expected, and represents slightly more change than is average for the mid-term election during a President's first term.

Yes.  The Dems gain in the House is somewhat tempered by the losses in the Senate.  Pending any recounts and runoffs, it appears that the GOP will pick up three seats. 

gerontocrat

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Re: Elections 2018 USA
« Reply #91 on: November 07, 2018, 07:47:36 PM »
VICTORY !! said the democrats

VICTORY !! said Trump.

Not a lot has changed in opinions amongst the population of the USA in general. Say I
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Klondike Kat

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Re: Elections 2018 USA
« Reply #92 on: November 07, 2018, 08:28:58 PM »
VICTORY !! said the democrats

VICTORY !! said Trump.

Not a lot has changed in opinions amongst the population of the USA in general. Say I

Exactly!

sidd

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Re: Elections 2018 USA
« Reply #93 on: November 07, 2018, 08:43:58 PM »
Politico has a state by state breakup at

https://www.politico.com/election-results/2018/

The maps are useful. The rural-urban divide persists, democrats show gains in suburbs, republicans retain rural edge.

sidd

sidd

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Re: Elections 2018 USA
« Reply #94 on: November 07, 2018, 10:39:49 PM »
Only in the USA: Republican brothel owner wins election posthumously

“I’m fine with him being dead and winning,” O’Rourke said. “I know a lot of people who were going to vote Democrat if he were alive, but will now vote Republican because he’s dead.”

Wait, what ?

http://www.latimes.com/nation/la-na-nevada-dead-candidate-20181106-story.html

Didn't Bush the Lesser appoint an attorney general who had lost to a dead guy ?

It comes back to me, it was John Ashcroft, the first of a trio of craven,disastrous lesser Bush AGs (the latter two were gonzales and mukasey) who went along with illegal wars, illegal detentions, assassinations, covert military actions, torture, and mass surveillance of their own citizenry and the world. Altho, in fairness, Ashcroft did protest a bit at the NSA programs. And now that i think about it some more, the deputies of the first two were Mueller and Comey.

sidd
« Last Edit: November 07, 2018, 11:40:54 PM by sidd »

sedziobs

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Re: Elections 2018 USA
« Reply #95 on: November 08, 2018, 04:45:07 PM »
Polls are one piece of information.  Forecasters don't use them exclusively or uncritically.  Despite your baseless assertion that polls are not accurate 99% of the time, 538 forecast an average gain of 36-39 seats depending on the model.  They also predicted a Republican gain in the Senate.  The predictions weren't perfect, but they were useful. 

So why do you SPIN the Polling Numbers to push your own Beliefs and Biases while either discarding out of hand OR intentionally choosing to remain ignorant of the facts and the default FALSE ASSUMPTIONS that are presented - overlooking the valid evidence based details and the historical facts contained in those very Polls and prior results?  Are you really DUMB or just an intentionally MANIPULATIVE LYING pseudo-expert?

sedziobs

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Re: Elections 2018 USA
« Reply #96 on: November 08, 2018, 05:29:02 PM »
It remains to be seen what the final popular vote margin will be.  NYT forecast it to be 6.9% as of yesterday afternoon.  California might have millions of mail ballots left to be counted.

Quote
In this year’s primary election, more than two-thirds of California voters mailed in their ballots. But on election night, workers were able to tabulate only about 58 percent of what would be total ballots cast—another 3 million-plus arrived over the next three days to be tallied. That left many counties scrambling to handle the avalanche of mail-in ballots days after election night.
capradio.org/articles/2018/11/06/


Klondike Kat

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Re: Elections 2018 USA
« Reply #97 on: November 08, 2018, 06:21:14 PM »
Polls are one piece of information.  Forecasters don't use them exclusively or uncritically.  Despite your baseless assertion that polls are not accurate 99% of the time, 538 forecast an average gain of 36-39 seats depending on the model.  They also predicted a Republican gain in the Senate.  The predictions weren't perfect, but they were useful. 

So why do you SPIN the Polling Numbers to push your own Beliefs and Biases while either discarding out of hand OR intentionally choosing to remain ignorant of the facts and the default FALSE ASSUMPTIONS that are presented - overlooking the valid evidence based details and the historical facts contained in those very Polls and prior results?  Are you really DUMB or just an intentionally MANIPULATIVE LYING pseudo-expert?

With regards to 538, they were slightly biased to the Democrats.  The gain in the House is likely to fall short of 36, but not by much, so this was fairly close.  Considering the lack of polling in many Congressional races, this was quite good.

Their Senate predictions were off by much more.  In their final predictions they had the Democrats winning Arizona (+1.7), Florida (+3.2), and Indiana (+3.7), with only Missouri (+1.1) and Nevada (+1.1) as pure tossups. They predicted 50:48, with two tossups, which was not a gain, but no change (assuming the two tossups split equally).  If the results in FL and AZ stand (no guarantee), the GOP will gain 3 seats.

Their likely Democrat wins were Montana (+4.8), West Virginia (+7.5), New Jersey (+11.5), Ohio (10.6), and Michigan (11.3).  Their likely Republican states were  North Dakota (-4.6), Texas (-4.9), and Tennessee (-5.3).  The actual results were AZ (-1.0), FL (-0.2), IN (-7.3), MO (-6.0), NV (+5.0), MT (+3.1), WV (+3.2), NJ (+9.6), OH (+6.4), MI (+6.3), ND (-10.8), TX (-2.6), and TN (-10.8).  Of these 13 states, only twice did the Democrats perform better than predicted (TX and NV), and their predictions favored the Democrats in these states by an average of 3.8%!  This is outside their margin of error, so they definitely appears to be a bias.

sedziobs

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Re: Elections 2018 USA
« Reply #98 on: November 08, 2018, 07:10:11 PM »
538 "predicted" 51:49 as the most likely deterministic outcome with a 17.7% chance.  But the probabilistic forecast also had 54:46 as an 8.6% chance.  Their 80% confidence interval included everything from 49:51 to 55:40.  So while they missed on many individual states, they weren't too far off when accounting for uncertainty.

Klondike Kat

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Re: Elections 2018 USA
« Reply #99 on: November 08, 2018, 07:54:02 PM »
538 "predicted" 51:49 as the most likely deterministic outcome with a 17.7% chance.  But the probabilistic forecast also had 54:46 as an 8.6% chance.  Their 80% confidence interval included everything from 49:51 to 55:40.  So while they missed on many individual states, they weren't too far off when accounting for uncertainty.

That still does not account for their almost 4% bias towards the Democrats in their voting predictions.