Tesla glory/failure

[NeilT]

Works perfectly, if you ask me

+1

[Sigmetnow]

”You know, of course, that crash testing is done at 40mph.”

Then, heaven help anyone driving or riding in a vehicle that is not 5-star in every category! 

[Sigmetnow]

chris collins (@chrisccollins)
9/21/18, 11:41 AM

Here's a @Tesla spec ad I cut for fun.
@elonmusk @TeslaMotorsClub @SpaceX #tesla #specad #elonmusk #spacex pic.twitter.com/HwklAZuCQJ

https://twitter.com/chrisccollins/status/1043163246440710144
Tribute Video at the link.

[Archimid]

@RyanDMC

A lot of Tesla owners, including myself, would be DELIGHTED to volunteer, for free, to help with deliveries in times like this. We can't do their paperwork but we CAN do orientations. It's fun to educate new owners & see their joy & enthusiasm! https://insideevs.com/tesla-prepping-7000-model-3-deliveries-week/amp/ …

@ElonMusk reply

Wow, thanks for offering to help! The coming week is incredibly intense. If any current Tesla owners who’d like to help educate new owners could head to Tesla delivery centers during midday on Sat/Sun & morning/evening on weekdays, that would be super appreciated!

[Sigmetnow]

Booming, disembodied voice: “Tesla Army, activate!” 

From July:

Hi @elonmusk this weekend 76 @Tesla cars from @TeslaOwnersUK gave up their weekend to drive ~10,000 (yes 10K) test drive experiences for the VIP, media, competitors and families visiting one of the largest ICE events in the world #SilverstoneClassic - Staff from...
...companies like Pagani, Aston Martin, BMW and Porsche had to pick up their jaws from the floor once they realised we were volunteers from the official UK owners club and not employed by Tesla...

https://twitter.com/willfealey/status/1021348304653897728

——

The Tesla fleet recently passed a total of 9 Billion electric miles.  Two years ago, they were accumulating 5 million miles a day.  Currently, that rate is 20 million miles a day.  They should reach 10 Billion miles total by this Thanksgiving (November 22).

It will have taken Tesla 10 years to accumulate 10 Billion fleet miles.  Given the increasing rate new Teslas are being sold, it will take one year to reach 20 Billion miles.

Source: Sept. 21 Electrek podcast:  https://electrek.co/2018/09/21/electrek-podcast-tesla-model-3-safety-production-audi-e-tron-chevy-volt-interbike/

[Sigmetnow]

Bay Area Bonanza: Tesla Insider Leaks Model 3 Delivery Extravaganza

Apparently, Tesla has readied some 7,000 Model 3 vehicles to be delivered just in the San Francisco Bay Area over the course of seven days. We hear that the specific goal is for the automaker to deliver 1,000 Model 3s each day for the last week of the month in the Bay Area alone.
We also received a tip that many of these cars are ready to go and waiting in Richmond, CA at the railyard.

https://insideevs.com/tesla-prepping-7000-model-3-deliveries-week/

Diana B. (@teslachick) 9/20/18, 11:13 AM
Correction, I’m seeing about four times as many Teslas on the road on my way to work.
https://twitter.com/teslachick/status/1042793831689678848
I might also point out I have seen ZERO car carriers for any other brand in 10 years on this route
(Image at the link.)

ValueAnalyst (@ValueAnalyst1) 9/22/18, 11:44 AM
If #Tesla is delivering 1,000 Model 3’s daily in the Bay Area alone, then let this be the last time the words “delivery bottleneck” are uttered, because Tesla has figured out a way to think outside the box and can scale it across the world.
https://twitter.com/valueanalyst1/status/1043526390111522816
(GIF at the link. )

—-
Tesla was ranked third, ahead of Apple & Amazon. SpaceX is fourth.
Hired Releases 2018 Global Brand Health Report - Company News

To bring clarity to what matters most to job seekers, we asked tech workers which companies they’re most interested in working for, what attracts them to an appealing employer, and what drives them to accept or reject a job offer. Our second annual Brand Health Report recognizes companies who have been named a top employer brand by tech talent and provides insights that help companies improve their talent acquisition strategies to better attract and retain top talent.

https://hired.com/blog/highlights/hired-releases-2018-global-brand-health-report/

——
Hey, competition, why u make bad EVs?  Thanks, though, for making EVs seem normal to your customers.
Explaining the "Tesla Killer" fallacy (Youtube: Teslanomics by Ben Sullins)
[https://youtu.be/5fW9ne9mFVk

—-
Edit:
Hilarious highlight of the day: The Jaguar dealers that had just moved in next-door to Tesla Littleton [Colorado] commented on all of the truck carriers of cars showing up, and asked, “where are you going to put all of these?” And the answer was “They aren’t staying.”
https://twitter.com/guytesla/status/1043704466174889984

Tesla's volunteer-boosted Model 3 delivery weekend is a wake-up call for legacy auto
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-model-3-delivery-weekend-volunteers-wakeup-call/

The recent offerings of premium legacy automakers have caught the attention of Christina Bu, General Secretary of the Electric Vehicle Association in Norway. Norway is among the world’s leaders in the electric car transition, and it is one of the countries where Tesla’s vehicles hold a formidable place. After the reveal of some of Tesla’s competitors from legacy automakers, though, the EVA General Secretary proved unimpressed, calling on manufacturers to “stop pretending and start delivering” on real electric cars that have compelling performance and features. Bu further noted that the strong demand for affordable, decently-specced vehicles like the Kia Niro Electric and Hyundai KONA Electric, is proof that consumers are ready to embrace EVs.

[Sigmetnow]

Woot! Preparing for the European invasion.  (Test cars.)

Model 3 VINs (@Model3VINs)
9/23/18, 9:53 PM
#Tesla registered 7 new European #Model3 VINs (116264-116270). 4 AWD and 3 RWD.
https://twitter.com/model3vins/status/1044042089502257152

[Sigmetnow]

These 3 Graphs Show What Tesla Bears Are Lying To You About

The point being made there comes in parts: First of all, as we know, there are costs that go into development of a product. Then it takes some more time and more money to ramp up production. Then, once production is flowing, those costs are slowly (or quickly) recouped and there should eventually be a net profit from that product — unless the product is a dud (which the Model 3 obviously is not).

However, with each of those successful products, you can (as Tesla has done for years) immediately take the product’s profits and pump them into new products in order to grow the company beyond what is possible from that single good. In other words, the Model S and Model X make Tesla a lot of money, but rather than roll in the profits of those two models, Tesla has used the extra cash to help build the Gigafactory, Model 3, Model Y, Semi, Roadster 2.0, etc.

Tesla has been pumping all of its surplus revenue, and more, into new product development and production. In my humble opinion, that is what all Tesla investors should have wanted up to this stage.

Now, the thing that has recently changed is that Tesla has decided to turn a profit across the company and then stay profitable indefinitely. Whether that shift is due to stock and brand manipulation on Wall Street and in the media or is just a natural result of where Tesla is today, it’s unclear, but it doesn’t really matter anyway. What matters is that Tesla is apparently crossing a point where it no longer has to deal with concern trolls who claim that they are worried about Tesla and its finances. Tesla can just turn a profit and shake a handful of gremlins off its back.

But aside from the trolls and big-money interests that would rather see Tesla fail, the points all of us should be clear about are simple: Tesla has made a ton of money on the Model S and Model X, money that was pumped into rapid growth. Tesla also recently crossed the point where the Model 3’s revenue surpassed its costs and, combined with S and X revenue, is greater than additional company investments, making the company profitable. The future is looking bright for Tesla as far as I can see. (Not investment advice — we are not investment advisors.)

https://cleantechnica.com/2018/09/24/these-3-graphs-show-what-tesla-bears-are-lying-to-you-about-tsla-not-tslaq/

[Sigmetnow]

 

Shortsville Times: Tesla unable to sell Model 3s, stores them on trailers

The [photo below] was taken yesterday on an Oregon interstate, where car carrier trucks packed with Tesla cars have caused a major traffic jam. We have received reports of similar incidents along the west coast.

According to a Tesla spokesperson these shipments of cars are part of the "7 day delivery push" where thousands of Model 3's would be shipped to new owners this week - but industry experts Dana Hull, Jim Chanos, David Gelles, Mark Spiegel, Andrew Left and Bob Lutz expressed deep concern about this approach.

According to Bob Lutz, "as everyone in the car industry knows, newly manufactured cars are first shipped to dealerships, where they are often stored for months until they are sold by expert car salesmen who know how to connect with customers on a personal level. These cars were obviously never in any dealership showroom, and this year Tesla's showrooms scored dead last 10th year in a row in pressure-sales ranking, so how can Tesla possibly claim that these cars were already sold? They haven't even hired a single car salesman as far as I know. It makes no sense and I believe the only explanation for this is that Tesla is trying to hide its unsold inventory, by storing them on trailers." ...

https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/tsla-market-action-2018-investor-roundtable.105308/page-1929

Edit:  This one’s for real!
Tesla starts building its own car carriers due to ‘extreme shortage’ in Model 3 delivery rush week, says Elon Musk
https://electrek.co/2018/09/24/tesla-building-own-car-carriers-shortage-model-3-delivery-rush-week/

[oren]

Tesla starts building its own car carriers due to ‘extreme shortage’ in Model 3 delivery rush week, says Elon Musk 

I don't dig this. Is this some special Tesla expertise? Do they really need more in-house projects?

[TerryM]

I'm unsure that this is the correct thread.

Trump's EPA is proposing ending California's ZEV credits.
I'm very unsure how the termination of ZEV after 2020 affects the auction value of ZEV credits today, or going forward. Tesla has been purchasing them at auction, then cashing them in to the State as I understand it, and they are presently sitting on a mountain of them.

I assume that the New EPA will go ahead with their proposal over California's objections.
Will this have an effect on ZEV credits by;

Rendering them valueless by 2021?
Undercutting their value from now through 2020?
No effect on ZEV until 2021
No value for ZEV credits once the EPA proposal is enforced?
Requiring them to be cashed out now, with whatever tax considerations this entails?

Lots of questions, but no answers. Shorts see this as favorable to their side. I see it as a problem after 2021, but they see a more immediate effect.

https://www.nhtsa.gov/sites/nhtsa.dot.gov/files/documents/fact_sheet_-_epca_preemption_final_clean_080218_v1-tag.pdf

https://www.nhtsa.gov/sites/nhtsa.dot.gov/files/documents/fact_sheet_-_california_caa_waiver_final_clean_080218_v1-tag.pdf
Terry

[TerryM]

Tesla starts building its own car carriers due to ‘extreme shortage’ in Model 3 delivery rush week, says Elon Musk

I don't dig this. Is this some special Tesla expertise? Do they really need more in-house projects?

We've a few large auto plants in the region, but everything moves by rail. Shipping parts in, or autos out by truck is neither efficient nor the best method of minimizing damage during transit.
This is how new cars are moved!



Said as a former trucker.
Terry

[Archimid]

Is this some special Tesla expertise?

I think they are expert manufacturers and engineers, with the tools, capacity and drive to set and achieve very ambitious goals.

I don't think 1 road worthy trailer is impossible to do in a matter of weeks with the right equipment and expertise. However, 1 trailer isn't much use. They must make hundreds, maybe thousands.

Do they really need more in-house projects?

Considering they are designing and testing a Semi truck and they have the need to transport cars, it makes perfect sense to me. I find it genial.

[NeilT]

It is quite an interesting read about the fine balancing act of taking Tesla from loss making to profitable.  Musk is focusing on one thing at a time but, it appears, he has finally taken on board that you actually have to ship the car before you can book the revenue.

Witness that production has slowed to around 3k cars per week.  Tesla has already hit the self imposed manufacturing target of Model 3’s to make a profit in Q3.  The next hurdle is that if they don’t get them to the customers they can’t book the revenue for Q3.  Witness the Musk style campaign to hit the target in a mad rush.

I still expect that Tesla will far exceed the analysts expectations for revenue in Q3, profit?  Don’t know it depends on how they manage.

What is much more interesting right now is not hitting the news at all.  Manufacturing machines going in, right now, in the Gigafactory, to support batteries for 10k vehicles per week.  Manufacturing machines going into the Fremont assembly plant to do the same.

Either Tesla is going to knock it out of the park and move on to even more in Q4, or it is just going to miss in Q3 and it is going to make a solid profit in Q4.

One thing is certain.  In Q4 Tesla will know exactly what needs to be done to manufacture and ship 50,000 – 60,000 cars by the end of Q4.

I am patiently waiting for the Q3 results in order to get a clearer view of just how much of a change the increase in Model 3 volume made.

Only then will we know how Tesla should be operating in Q4.

[GoSouthYoungins]

Tesla starts building its own car carriers due to ‘extreme shortage’ in Model 3 delivery rush week, says Elon Musk

I don't dig this. Is this some special Tesla expertise? Do they really need more in-house projects?

It is just a Muskian lie, to deflect the delivery problems, with a pseudo-fix.

This is part for the course. Musk just tells one lie to bail out the last lie and confuse the easily confused. He is constantly saying this nonsense...

We are bringing repairs in house! (deflects from the fact that repair shops are not repairing due to lack of parts from Tesla)

We will be producing 5000 model 3s per week by the end of 2017! (still not even true, but it was just espoused to deflect from terrible financials)

We have 420,000 model 3 reservations! (they clearly do not have nearly that many customers. but it drummed  up enough optimism to convince shareholders to bail out solar city)

The model 3 will be able to have a high gross margin because it will be built almost entirely by robots...the factory will the THE ALIEN DREADKNOT!!! Our tolerences will be tighter than ever seen before  (total nonsense, the manufacturing ends up less mechanized than normal for 2018 and the quality control is a joke)

Check out this solar roof tile! Its incredible! (it is actually totally nonfunctional, but this is just a distraction from how bad of an acquisition solar city was)

We haven't been subpoenaed by the DOJ! (obfiscates the reality that the DOJ just piggy backs on the SECs subpoenas, and that the DOJ wouldn't even be involved if the SEC had not found serious wrong-doing)

Tesla's bankruptcy countdown should be done in weeks, not even months. I'll be genuinely impressed and confused if they are in business come new years.  Put options pay 100-1 if they are bust by Jan 1....OMFG...is the whole world nuts. Maybe I am the one of crazy pills.

[GoSouthYoungins]

"There is effectively infinite demand for our car, and we will be building at least 5000 per week by the end of 2017, and then will increase the number gradually until we reach around 10000 per week. This is not a joke. We are a legit car company. We are saving the world. Now nod your head or be deemed an enemy of humanity."

[Csnavywx]

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4207921-tesla-needs-q3-profit-now-never

Coverdrive has a new article. Bottom line is that Tesla can show a profit this quarter on the back of a base 389M GAAP loss if they goose the balance sheet by using a massive amount of ZEV credit sales, deferments (both in repairs and accounts payable) and foreign currency exchange. These amount to essentially one-time boosts though.

Tesla will need another capital raise or two to survive due to its structural non-profitability. Interest on all of those coupons is starting to bite. ZEV credit phase out will begin soon and deferments will eventually take their toll. Even if they manage to goose a narrow Q3 profit, Q4 and '19 Q1 will likely see them heavily bleeding balance sheet red again to the tune of 300-500M/qtr.

[oren]

I wish there was a way to access this article to take a hard look at the assumed numbers. I personally think Tesla's core profitability should improve as teething problems are ironed out and as output becomes more stable/somewhat rising, so a Q3 breakeven achieved with one-time items could become a Q4 breakeven without these items.

[GoSouthYoungins]

I wish there was a way to access this article to take a hard look at the assumed numbers. I personally think Tesla's core profitability should improve as teething problems are ironed out and as output becomes more stable/somewhat rising, so a Q3 breakeven achieved with one-time items could become a Q4 breakeven without these items.

open it in an incognito window. welcome. the article is pretty bland though. try "teslas endgame" for a far more in depth look.


Do you remember that the profitability aspect was supposed to come from super mechanization and autonomization? And that NONE of that has come to bear?!? They are going bankrupt.

[oren]

open it in an incognito window. welcome. the article is pretty bland though. try "teslas endgame" for a far more in depth look.

Do you remember that the profitability aspect was supposed to come from super mechanization and autonomization? And that NONE of that has come to bear?!? They are going bankrupt.

Thank you, the incognito tip is very helpful. I did manage to read quite a few articles detailing the "short side". I think most of them are wrong in their assumptions on Model 3 gross margins. Remember when Model 3 was supposed to cost $35k? Now it sells for $55-60k, and some of the included options cost nothing to produce (such as enhanced autopilot). I am quite sure the other options bring a higher margin than the base price itself. It's true that production hell and delivery hell increase costs far above the long-term run-rate, but I expect the increased selling price to make up for that. In Q4, and Q1 next year, average selling price may drop but production and delivery should be much more streamlined. I strongly doubt they are going bankrupt.

The original article posted by csnavywx https://seekingalpha.com/article/4207921-tesla-needs-q3-profit-now-never assumes a $60k average selling price, but a 12.5% gross margin, or only $7.5k per car. I think this is a far underestimate.

Here is a "long side" analysis of gross margins. https://seekingalpha.com/article/4206935-tesla-margins-may-surprise
It contains details of options and uptake rates, based on a buyers survey https://t.co/eaiX3Hcfq6.

[Sigmetnow]

...
Trump's EPA is proposing ending California's ZEV credits.
...
Terry

Musk has repeatedly said that it would benefit Tesla (and the advent of sustainable transport) if ZEV credits were eliminated entirely.  As it is, ICE manufacturers buy ZEV credits as needed to balance their huge ICE sales versus their small EV sales.  And the market to buy those credits results in price variations, so Tesla can’t be sure what income they will receive from them.  Better to enforce a percent of sales requirement (like China), so ICE manufacturers have to make EVs of sufficient quality and quantity to meet precise goals.  But of course they will fight that intensely, since buying ZEV credits is so much easier.  And I imagine the oil-beholden EPA is not planning to replace the ZEV credits with EV sales requirements.

[Sigmetnow]

There are many stories of $TSLA Model 3 owners virally selling multiple more Model 3's purely through word of mouth or letting their social circle experience the car. We are witnessing an inflection point in the auto industry that happens once or twice a century.
https://twitter.com/ellec_uk/status/1044646034973106176
<< Yup, our Model S household has "sold" four Model 3s to family & friends already.
     —-
So the Model 3 definitely blew up in my area over the past week. Spotted 8 on my way home from work, all with temp tags!
https://twitter.com/atokosch_61/status/1044311929286725637
(Maryland - Timonium and Annapolis)
<< You should see the Bay Area. You can’t leave the house for 5 minutes without seeing a Tesla on the road.
     —-
I assume more Model 3 out in the world will mean more Model S and X sales into families that dipped their toe into the water with Model 3 and are blown away by the advantages. Thanksgiving will be a mass eye opening test drive event as 100,000 families give rides to their kin
https://twitter.com/mr_calico/status/1044642712304021504
   —-
<< Or maybe a significant number of first time Tesla owners via the model 3 have converted to two Tesla households by purchasing an S/X.  Count me in that number.  Damned if my wife was going to be stuck driving an ICE while I was riding around in a 3.
   —-
Tesla Model 3s seem to be popping up everywhere around NYC—I counted 5 last weekend on a 3-hour drive to the Catskills. I also drove by a NJ showroom Friday night and could barely squeeze through all the double-parked cars awaiting delivery during the end-of-quarter push
https://twitter.com/tsrandall/status/1044336591005777921
<< They’re everywhere I look! 5 now in my neighborhood. All replaced older Mazda 3, bmw 3 series, Subaru, etc.
<< Up the block is a 2-model-3 house hold. They replaced their ~20 yr old cars with his and her 3’s about 4 weeks ago. The white one just arrived home from delivery and was circling the neighborhood. Since the 3’s showed up up an X has been ordered and more are interested in the 3. [Image below.]
The demographics are all over the place. Young families with 2-3 kids to Retired couples with a classic muscle car sharing the garage.

———
Henry:  Picked up my @Tesla Model 3 AWD. Traded in my ‘16 BMW 328XI. Thank you. @Tesla @elonmusk . The attention to thoughtful design is amazing. In every conceivable way the Model 3 is a quantum leap over my old car - something even my 4 year old gets! Why can't all the naysayers get it?
https://twitter.com/rocketl49/status/1044628302168645632
Pete Clay:  I traded in my 2011 BMW 328xi when I got my Rear Motor Model 3 in May! Now it costs me $8.25 per 310 miles, which is actually free due to my 2010 PV system that paid for itself in 3 years & generates $3000/yr in profits! Never going back to BMW! My wife’s BMW is next for Model Y!
   
   —-
BMW acknowledges poor sales last quarter, but refuses to mention the elephant in the room that is stealing their sales….

BMW Caves In to Trade and Pricing Pressures With Profit Cut
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-09-25/bmw-cuts-profit-outlook-for-2018-on-trade-pricing-pressures
BMW AG cut its profit forecast, becoming the latest carmaker to succumb to pressures ranging from trade wars to scrutiny on emissions. The shares fell the most in over two years.

(You may be able to read the Bloomberg article via this Twitter link, if you can’t access it above:)
BMW cuts profit outlook for 2018 on trade, pricing pressures
“Too many things came together this year, but we can assume this profit warning will be a one-time thing,” a Frankfurt-based analyst said
Sure, let's catch up next quarter
https://twitter.com/lordastinus/status/1044572389315670017
   
———-
A German engineer explains in detail why the German auto industry may not survive.

Tesla, An Uncomfortable Wake-Up Call For Germany. All Hands On Deck!
September 25th, 2018 by Alex Voigt

The shift from the combustion engine to the electric powertrain has been happening for years and is happening fast and without mercy. The shift is not in the far future. It is not happening in just some places. It is not happening for just a subgroup of consumers. It is happening here, today, right between us, within all buyer groups, within all countries, and within all age groups.

The history has shown that companies without competitive products either shrink, are bought, or fully disappear. It has been like that in the past and we have no reason to believe that it will be different in the future. Some companies have been able to reinvent themselves, but those examples are rare and it was always a hard and underestimated challenging road typically triggered by a near-death experience. ...

https://cleantechnica.com/2018/09/25/tesla-an-uncomfortable-wake-up-call-for-germany-all-hands-on-deck/

[Sigmetnow]

Tesla is also using rail.  But trucks have more flexible scheduling, and can deliver directly to the Tesla Delivery Centers — a vital factor when delivery appointments have already been made with hundreds of customers at a single location.  Trucks are delivering cars every hour in some places — many are probably shuttling back and forth from the railway yard, or other delivery staging lots.  The scale and timing of Tesla’s vehicle delivery ramp this month may be unprecedented.
 

Apparently, Tesla has readied some 7,000 Model 3 vehicles to be delivered just in the San Francisco Bay Area over the course of seven days. We hear that the specific goal is for the automaker to deliver 1,000 Model 3s each day for the last week of the month in the Bay Area alone. We also received a tip that many of these cars are ready to go and waiting in Richmond, CA at the railyard.

https://insideevs.com/tesla-prepping-7000-model-3-deliveries-week/amp/
     
   —-
SeattleDave (@alphaverve) 9/25/18, 5:22 PM
Looks like $TSLA got some deliveries to make. Stumbled upon a couple hundred in a Mall parking lot.
https://twitter.com/alphaverve/status/1044698806061682688
(3 photos at the link.)
——

Hey! I found a photo of Tesla's new car carrier trailer.
https://twitter.com/alterviggo/status/1044326139227820032
[First image below. ]

Seriously, though. The trailers they're building might be more like these, as it would enable Class C licensed drivers (employees) to deliver cars.
Super bonus if trailers get pulled by Tesla Semi prototypes!
[Second image below.]

——-
Bonus:  Sad and funny Tesla spec ad (Project Loveday):  youtu.be/BlWVA2Pqhe0

[Buddy]

There are many stories of $TSLA Model 3 owners virally selling multiple more Model 3's purely through word of mouth or letting their social circle experience the car. We are witnessing an inflection point in the auto industry that happens once or twice a century.

Tesla ..... like EV's in general .... will start to go absolutely ballistic.  Below are a couple of paragraphs describing how "Hush Puppies" (the shoe) went viral.  EV's are doing the same thing .... only it will be more substantial because the coming ECONOMIC DIFFERENCE between buying an ICE vs an EV will "force people" to buy EV's (after about 2021 or 2022).  It just won't make sense to do otherwise.  The fact that you are (1) getting a better car, (2) getting a less expensive car, (3) doing something that is MUCH better for the environment...... well those things are just BONUSES.

The book The Tipping Point is the biography of an idea, and the idea is very simple. It is that the best way to understand the emergence of fashion trends, the phenomenon of word of mouth, or any number of the other mysterious changes that mark everyday life, is to think of them as epidemics. Ideas, products, messages and behaviors spread just like viruses do.

The rise of Hush Puppies is a textbook example of an epidemic in action. Although this and other examples may sound as if they don’t have very much in common, they share a basic, underlying pattern. First of all, they are clear examples of contagious behavior. No one took out an advertisement and told people that the traditional Hush Puppies were cool, and that they should start wearing them. Those kids simply wore the shoes when they went to clubs or cafés or walked the streets of downtown New York, and in so doing exposed other people to their fashion sense. They infected them with the Hush Puppies ‘virus’.

https://caperebel.com/blogs/news/the-hush-puppie-epidemic

If you get a chance to read "The Tipping Point" I highly recommend it.  It's a good read....

[GoSouthYoungins]

Tesla ..... like EV's in general .... will start to go absolutely ballistic.  Below are a couple of paragraphs describing how "Hush Puppies" (the shoe) went viral.  EV's are doing the same thing .... only it will be more substantial because the coming ECONOMIC DIFFERENCE between buying an ICE vs an EV will "force people" to buy EV's (after about 2021 or 2022).  It just won't make sense to do otherwise.  The fact that you are (1) getting a better car, (2) getting a less expensive car.

Swing and a miss. Like that steel factory you thought had "gone solar" . ROFL

0) Teslas are like Hush Puppies....come the f**k on. Seriously. Try to find less absurd comparisons.

1)getting a better car....this is detached from reality. The paint jobs on model 3s are super low quality. The panel gaps are far beyond industry norms. The operating system is prone to bugs which can render the car inoperable. The bumpers fall off. If/when something does go wrong, Tesla is frequently unable to provide parts, so repair wait times can be ridiculous. There are already many ongoing Lemon Lawsuits filed by model 3 owners.

2)getting a less expensive car....you have this 100% backwards. The average Tesla sold is almost $100k. Even the new "cheap" one sells for over $50k. AND even if Tesla did start selling the $35k version (with zero add-ons) it would STILL BE MORE EXPENSIVE THAN THE AVERAGE NEW CAR!!!!

What do you think Gladwell's thoughts would be on the tipping point shown in this image?

[gerontocrat]

Since Musk started to talk about Tesla instead of himself, the market seems more content. Share price currently around $ 310.

[GoSouthYoungins]

Tesla starts building its own car carriers due to ‘extreme shortage’ in Model 3 delivery rush week, says Elon Musk

Problem is, that is totally false. There is no shortage of car carriers. Musk is just blaming someone else for Tesla's problems. Same thing happened with tons of people complaining about long repair wait...Musk claims it is the shops fault and that Telsa will be bringing repair in-house, but the actual problem is that Tesla can't provide parts. Musk is a fraudy fraudulent fraud.

Side note: If you are waiting to repair your roof because you want one of Tesla's solar roof tile set-ups Musk showcased back in 2016, you should give up. It was a 100% lie. He just wanted to temporarily distract from how terrible his bail out of solar city was with some faux-future-product.  Of course, he trusted that the Tesla lemmings would forget, and boy oh boy does he know his lemmings.

[NeilT]

When looking at the demand for EV's it is always useful to look at legislation.  by 2030 there will be a demand for some 8-9 million EV's in the EU as Germany and others line up to ban the sale of ICEV's by then.  Some are earlier but it is looking like the EU will need to legislate for 2040 at the latest.

The EU, today, is a market for over 15m cars per year.

Saying that ICE is going to become resurgent and that EV orders are going to vanish is a head in the sand approach to looking into the future.  The world is changing and Zero Emission vehicles (at least at the point of use), are going to be the only vehicles allowed to be sold by the end of the first half of this century.  At least in the developed economies.

Where does everyone think that these cars are going to come from?  The manufacturers are not going to suddenly change over from ICE to EV in 2029 and the infrastructure to charge EV's is not going to appear overnight either.

Regardless of what the US does, EV demand is only going to grow.

[Sigmetnow]

The Bloomberg Tracker depends, in large part, on Model 3 buyers reporting the Vehicle Identification Number (VIN) they have been assigned.  But there have been mysterious “gaps” in the range of numbers seen. Now, they are starting to appear:  U.S. east coast and Canada deliveries!  Expect Bloomberg updates soon.

All #Tesla #Model3 owners:
If you received a VIN between 80,000 and 95,000, please considering submitting it to @tsrandall's Model 3 Tracker here:
bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-…
Help us solve the mystery….
https://twitter.com/valueanalyst1/status/1044923233181585408

Image below.

TeslaOptimist (Teslalytics / tslalytix (@TeslaOptimist) 9/23/18, 3:35 AM
Sweet Irony: Old Chicago emissions testing facility now a Tesla delivery staging site! $TSLA (via Reddit)
https://twitter.com/teslaoptimist/status/1043765741714051072

Image below.
Yet another sign here of the widening embrace of clean transport.  Soon, the usual reaction to an EV will be… no surprise at all.

My 10 y/o daughter’s response when I text her that I’m picking her up in a #Tesla #ModelX today. ❤️
https://twitter.com/28delayslater/status/1042451465992851457

Image below.

[Sigmetnow]

Even the bearest of the Tesla bears are beginning to admit that the company will meet its aggressive Q3 targets:

Visits to Tesla Delivery Centers More Than Doubled in Q3
https://blog.alphahat.com/visits-to-tesla-delivery-centers-more-than-doubled-in-q3-ace425d57846

”September 2018 visits are estimated based on 16 days worth of data that we had as of the analysis date. Our number likely underestimates September visits given the significant end of quarter push that Tesla is currently undergoing in the last two weeks of this month.”


Edit:
Bonus image:  “A good looking Tesla family”
https://twitter.com/cbotnyse/status/1045370467400462337

[sidd]

SEC charges Musk with fraud:

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/09/27/tesla-falls-4percent-on-report-elon-musk-sued-by-sec.html

sidd

[Buddy]

So THAT’S how they made their quarterly numbers ..... they made the cars 1/5 scale!!!!  That Elon, he’s pretty sneaky.😉

[GoSouthYoungins]

SEC charges Musk with fraud:

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/09/27/tesla-falls-4percent-on-report-elon-musk-sued-by-sec.html

sidd

You ain't seen nothing yet.

[gerontocrat]

Tesla share price down over 10% in after-hours trading.

Those 2 words "secured funding" have mattered far more than all the other stuff put together. Some satisfaction in having said that at the time of that damn tweet.

Maybe Musk will have to leave the helm of Tesla. Depends how the SEC wants to play it.

[GoSouthYoungins]

The securities fraud charge is the tip of the iceberg. Everything around Musk is a bad joke.  It will be great for tesla to bail-out buy Solar City. Here is a roof solar tile that works amazing that we are going to put into mass production that everyone else in the industry for some reason thinks is impossible. I can dig tunnels at 10% the cost of anyone else. In a few months I am going to come out with a product to link the human brain to computers. We are going to put 3 times the number of current satellites into orbit and do it for $10 billion. We have 420,000 reservations remaining for the model 3. I am taking tesla private at $420.We are not going bankrupt. All totally wrong.

How delusional does someone have to be to not have caught on yet?!?!?!?!?!?

[GoSouthYoungins]

I think they are expert manufacturers and engineers, with the tools, capacity and drive to set and achieve very ambitious goals.

Less expert than everyone else who makes these sorts of things apparently.

https://www.truedelta.com/reliability-by-generation?o=2&d=DESC

[TerryM]

SEC says it is seeking to "bar Musk from serving as an officer or a director of a publicly traded company". Is this typical of SEC charges, or are stiff fines the norm?
When will this be settled one way or another?

Are SEC charges usually successful?
Are there reasons to believe that the SEC or Musk will prevail?



So - Tesla, Space-x, (edit - The Boring Company, is Hyperloop a thing?), are there other companies that Musk has a hand in?


What effect will this have on Tesla's ability to borrow money?
Will Tesla require a cash infusion in the near term?
Is Space-x in need of funding to move forward?
Will this have an effect on Tesla's proposed Chinese expansion?
Does this present problems WRT Panasonic's present and future partnerships with Tesla?


Will Tesla be charged in addition to Musk?
Terry

[GoSouthYoungins]

FOR THE RECORD: I was 100% spot on about the 420 tweet, and many on this forum attacked me for my claims. I will be right about Tesla going bankrupt as well. Prepare yourselves for that reality.

[GoSouthYoungins]

Tesla starts building its own car carriers due to ‘extreme shortage’ in Model 3 delivery rush week, says Elon Musk

Problem is, that is totally false. There is no shortage of car carriers. Musk is just blaming someone else for Tesla's problems. Same thing happened with tons of people complaining about long repair wait...Musk claims it is the shops fault and that Telsa will be bringing repair in-house, but the actual problem is that Tesla can't provide parts. Musk is a fraudy fraudulent fraud.

Side note: If you are waiting to repair your roof because you want one of Tesla's solar roof tile set-ups Musk showcased back in 2016, you should give up. It was a 100% lie. He just wanted to temporarily distract from how terrible his bail out of solar city was with some faux-future-product.  Of course, he trusted that the Tesla lemmings would forget, and boy oh boy does he know his lemmings.

SEC charges Musk with fraud. Maybe consider me less trolly in the future. Btw, the SEC case is as succinct as I have ever seen. It is so so so so so obvious, that even in legal bullshit vernacular they don't have to be too verbose. Soon a slew of wrong doing and fraud will come out. Tesla will go bankrupt. Those 100-1 bankrupt put options odds, are probably gone now. Sorry

[Archimid]

I wonder how the SEC justified the damage they might do to investors. Their duty is to protect investors but they are now protecting anti-investors.

I think that in trial the jury will find Elon innocent.

This is probably the first time a CEO is accused of fraud for acting in the best interests of the company.

It doesn't matter. Tesla and Elon must keep going. Go Tesla. 

[GoSouthYoungins]

I wonder how the SEC justified the damage they might do to investors. Their duty is to protect investors but they are now protecting anti-investors.

I think that in trial the jury will find Elon innocent.

This is probably the first time a CEO is accused of fraud for acting in the best interests of the company.

It doesn't matter. Tesla and Elon must keep going. Go Tesla.

It is the most clear cut case of securities fraud in history. You have no idea what you are talking about. How on earth is a fake go private announcement in the best interests of the company?

[litesong]

I think they are expert manufacturers and engineers, with the tools, capacity and drive to set and achieve very ambitious goals.

Less expert than everyone else who makes these sorts of things apparently.

https://www.truedelta.com/reliability-by-generation?o=2&d=DESC

Love Michael Karesh, who diligently & mathematically constructed True Delta into a great data platform for auto reliability. Even got some personal posts from him, as he & I encouraged posters on Hyundai websites to add reliability data to Michael Karesh True Delta's initially data-short Hyundai products. One great feature of True Delta is their quick display of data for  newly introduced vehicles & newly updated models....just wonderful.
 I am sorry to see such violently low reliability data for Tesla cars. It appears that the first built Teslas, which were described as having fit & finish problems, have been covering up deeper problems in the EVs.
 As an easy, feather footer advocate for all ICE & electric motor vehicles, to gain higher MPG (or Miles/kWhr) & longevity, it is NOT totally surprising to see these low reliability pickings for Tesla cars. Elon Musk's vigorous personality has taken the marketing of EVs (I know, Musk isn't into deep payola for advertising) in the wrong direction, as much ICE vehicle marketing has also gone in the same direction. Yes, the CRUSH-the-gas (or electric current) pedal-without real-world-penalty advertising, has delivered razzle-dazzle drivers to the world. As kid-impressing "performance" advertising has led many good ICE vehicles to early retirements & low reliability (or worse), EVs with their easily abused battery packs are already being trashed.
I would love to see the reliability data broken out for battery packs. Such packs have the ability to travel 200,000 to 300,000 miles with rigorous adherence to temperature management, & easy charging & discharging routines. Yeah, Tesla products, as well as other "performance advertised" vehicles are finding the low rough road to the repair shops, or junkyards.

[Csnavywx]

I wish there was a way to access this article to take a hard look at the assumed numbers. I personally think Tesla's core profitability should improve as teething problems are ironed out and as output becomes more stable/somewhat rising, so a Q3 breakeven achieved with one-time items could become a Q4 breakeven without these items.

The issue is with the gross margins. They're not high enough, especially with the warranty issues that are inevitably going to be coming down the pike (they certainly don't have Toyota-level QC and most insurance companies refuse to even insure them).

[RikW]

I wonder how the SEC justified the damage they might do to investors. Their duty is to protect investors but they are now protecting anti-investors.

I think that in trial the jury will find Elon innocent.

This is probably the first time a CEO is accused of fraud for acting in the best interests of the company.

It doesn't matter. Tesla and Elon must keep going. Go Tesla.

It is the most clear cut case of securities fraud in history. You have no idea what you are talking about. How on earth is a fake go private announcement in the best interests of the company?

Oh, that isn't that hard to explain. I think short-sellers can create a self-fullfilling profhecy, if enough people think a company will go bankrupt, it will go bankrupt, especially when it's in need of external investors - even when it's profitable eliminating start-up-costs. So damaging short-sellers could be good for the lifespan of a company.

But it's illegal to manipulate share prices in the way Musk did. Though I doubt if it was a preconceived plan, i think he just suddenly thought "let's irritate those short-sellers by tweeting this" and then posted that tweet or he even believed he could live up to the tweet.

I think Musk has the problem a lot of geniuses have, he is also a little insane.

[Archimid]

You look up their rules and the role they play and why. But that might be too much of an effort versus making stuff up?

The U. S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has a three-part mission:

Protect investors
Maintain fair, orderly, and efficient markets
Facilitate capital formation

https://www.investor.gov/introduction-investing/basics/role-sec

What Jury? Why assume this is will ever be going to trial or be done in front of a Jury. Got any precedents?

The SEC demanded Jury trial. It's right in the heading of the lawsuit.

https://assets.bwbx.io/documents/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/rESU9sUHniuA/v0

[Archimid]

  (most insurance companies refuse to even insure them).

This is false.

[Neven]

  (most insurance companies refuse to even insure them).

This is false.

I'd like to see some reference as well. I haven't heard that one before.

[TerryM]

Panasonic - "Tesla's performance and Musk's behavior through the rest of the year will determine the future of our partnership."

https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Companies/SEC-charges-against-Tesla-s-Musk-fuel-Panasonic-anxiety

A senior executive described Musk's announcement (about going private), which could have triggered a class action lawsuit had it been pursued, as "unimaginable".

It sounds as though Tesla's partner is less than thrilled with Musk's recent antics. They've a lot riding on Tesla's success. Tesla is reliant on Panasonic's batteries.
Terry

[Csnavywx]

  (most insurance companies refuse to even insure them).

This is false.

I'd like to see some reference as well. I haven't heard that one before.

Yep, gonna retract this. After further review, I was clearly wrong. The body work issues still stand though.

[Buddy]

Instead of paying ANY attention to short sellers .... or making a rescue submarine that was unworkable for a cave environment .... Musk should have been spending time and effort on getting “processes” straightened out at Tesla.

It’s amazing how stupid an intelligent person can be sometimes ... and it usually starts with EGO.  I hope he gets this issue resolved without having to lose his position at Tesla (and perhaps any other publicly held company ..... like a future SpaceEx IPO).

Again ..... Tesla needs a PROCESS ORIENTED person(s) to straighten out processes at Tesla.  Whether it is a COO type .... or just a “Process Czar/group” .... they need to get processes nailed down.  They should have done it long ago.  First it was the manufacturing line itself, then it was the delivery issues.  Bad processes are usually like roaches ....  they are everywhere.

And Elon needs to reign in his ego and concentrate on business.