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nadir

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #11700 on: May 14, 2024, 01:48:17 PM »
Estimating the rate of folks who tried the FSD supervised and took it by using a poll from a Sawyer Merritt’s post is like polling how many people believe in AGW in this forum and extrapolating that to the world.

Sigmetnow I thought you were an advanced scientifically centered person.

Well it's as scientific as the other figure of 2% being bandied about because a company took a 1,000 person "representative" poll...

I didn’t know that, but a poll of 1000 people, if well done, can already have a relatively low margin of error. (Ofc a Twitter poll means nothing).

Sampling size errors go down as sqrt(N) grows, and this is valid for any distribution. This one is binomial, I don’t know the specific formula for it, but you can expect error of order ~3% over the typical deviation of the distribution. IF, the poll was correct and unbiased. So it may not be a 2% but it might be a 4% or a 5%.



The Walrus

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #11701 on: May 14, 2024, 02:44:22 PM »
Estimating the rate of folks who tried the FSD supervised and took it by using a poll from a Sawyer Merritt’s post is like polling how many people believe in AGW in this forum and extrapolating that to the world.

Sigmetnow I thought you were an advanced scientifically centered person.

Well it's as scientific as the other figure of 2% being bandied about because a company took a 1,000 person "representative" poll...

I didn’t know that, but a poll of 1000 people, if well done, can already have a relatively low margin of error. (Ofc a Twitter poll means nothing).

Sampling size errors go down as sqrt(N) grows, and this is valid for any distribution. This one is binomial, I don’t know the specific formula for it, but you can expect error of order ~3% over the typical deviation of the distribution. IF, the poll was correct and unbiased. So it may not be a 2% but it might be a 4% or a 5%.

I think he was questioning the representative portion of the poll.  This can be exemplified by the 2004 Zogby internet polling, in which they declared that Kerry would win the presidency one week before the election.  Twenty years ago, the internet was not as widespread as today, being skewed towards younger voters, and therefore, no representative of the voting population.

nadir

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #11702 on: May 14, 2024, 04:36:40 PM »
Ok understood. It’d be interesting if Tesla themselves publish that number, all you can find aside of that is speculation. Will they make it public? Eventually I guess they are forced to publish FSD sales and subscriptions. Correct?

NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #11703 on: May 15, 2024, 06:05:53 PM »
Elon replied that it's higher than 2%.  But all he is willing to say.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #11704 on: May 15, 2024, 08:16:26 PM »
Questioning Fred’s information:
“There is no way you could find the conversion rate from credit card data. There would be no way to know who got a trial.”

It took time for the Free Trial software to roll out, and for people to download it, and try it. Not everyone has finished their free trial yet.  It only became available a few days ago to people on the 2024.8.9 branch:
Quote
… A LOT of people were unable to try the FSD free trial because they were stuck on the older 2024.8.9 software, but that’s fixed now.
5/9/24, https://x.com/sawyermerritt/status/1788698512751726796
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #11705 on: May 15, 2024, 08:26:03 PM »
Quote
Matt Smith
 
I recently had a talk with a friend who works for an auto OEM. He had been trying FSD Beta V12 to do some research for his work and was really impressed with it.
 
Without much prompting from me he told me that their company's strategy was just to wait to see what approach works best for solving autonomy and then to implement it "more efficiently".
 
Good luck with that.
5/15/24, 10:57 AM  https://x.com/matchasmmatt/status/1790758312759140831
 
< That just means "let's buy it from Tesla".
 
Elon Musk
We’re happy to sell it!
5/15/24, 11:17 AM  https://x.com/farzyness/status/1790763843364257842
 
<< I can't think of a single example where legacy OEM has done anything "more efficiently" than Tesla. And they've been around for 15+ years....

—-
Quote
Viv 
even living in the netherlands (aka bike country), there’s still plenty of drivers who cut off cyclists and pedestrians or not give them enough space, resulting in close calls or actual accidents every day
 
feeling significantly safer around teslas though due to active safety systems already coming standard!
 
i cannot WAIT for FSD supervised to roll out here and vehicles to eventually become fully autonomous - this will make traffic overall so much safer for everyone
5/15/24, https://x.com/battleangelviv/status/1790736981116244130

Tesla
FSD Supervised can help protect not just the occupants of the vehicle, but also others sharing the road
5/15/24, https://x.com/tesla/status/1790735552716652787

Arash Malek
My model 3 started slowing down and I was confused until I saw a cyclist go cross by and Thank me for stopping! Reviewing the footage is wild because even though I know the cyclist is there, it's still hard to spot. They completely blend into the background. FSD 12.3.6 is superhuman🤯
5/5/24, 10:35 AM  https://x.com/minimalduck/status/1787128965930405953
 
➡️ pic.twitter.com/yKFK1JsCEh  40 sec. Cyclist shows appreciation… to FSD.
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morganism

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #11706 on: May 16, 2024, 02:07:13 AM »
Tesla Supercharger station in Bay Area hit by vandals with every charging cable cut
Credit: K9Optima | TikTok
By Joey Klender
Posted on May 13, 2024

A Tesla Supercharger station in California’s Bay Area was recently hit by vandals who cut each and every charging cable, rendering the entire site useless.

Vandalism of Tesla vehicles is not uncommon, and we have reported on it many times in the past. Tesla Superchargers are also prone to various forms of vandalism and abuse, with damage to charging stalls or the act of “ICEing,” which entails gas-powered cars blocking Supercharger piles, all being popular forms of disruption.

However, we are now seeing vandalism continue in a strange and extremely disruptive way. A Bay Area Supercharger with several stalls was completely rendered useless after people sliced each of the cables from the individual piles.

A TikTok of the incident was shared by user K9Optima, which occurred at the Tesla Supercharger in Vallejo, California, behind a Target:

    @k9optimaBay Area vibes♬ original sound – K9 Optima

The cables that Tesla uses in its Superchargers are full of copper, which can be pulled and scrapped for money, which is likely the most plausible explanation for this type of vandalism.

It now seems this is a new form of attack on Tesla Superchargers, as another identical incident occurred last week in Houston, Texas. Thieves also cut the charging cables in Minneapolis, Minnesota, earlier this year.

It is not an isolated incident, which is unfortunate because Tesla Superchargers have been able to avoid this type of dramatic and potentially long-term vandalism. Of course, ICEing incidents are unfortunate but are only limited to as long as the cars choose to park in Supercharger spots, and Tesla has even come up with ways to combat the act.

Cutting Supercharger cables renders the charging stalls completely out of service until technicians can get to the site and make repairs, which only gives vandals another opportunity to snag the cables and the metals that run through them.

https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-supercharger-station-cables-cut-vandals-bay-area/

nadir

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #11707 on: May 16, 2024, 08:34:21 PM »
This is a cute graph. Based on that massive central trunk, this company may be characterized as…

- Car Company
- Energy Company
- AI Company
- …

Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #11708 on: May 16, 2024, 09:49:18 PM »
Quote
Cern Basher
 
Here's what I see as current and potential sources of revenue...
5/8/24, https://x.com/cernbasher/status/1788159558877163747
 
⬇️ pic.twitter.com/NsTHtvSaTW  [Click to enhance.]
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NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #11709 on: May 17, 2024, 08:09:33 PM »
I think we can forget restaurants at supercharger sites for a while.  Elon is totally focused on cost for volume and building restaurants carries a lot of cost up front.

They would be better starting a supermarket chain for supercharging sites if they wanted to expand that way.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #11710 on: May 20, 2024, 10:14:45 PM »
—- Giga Berlin News
Tesla has won approval for its expansion of its Giga Berlin factory, after a meeting between community members and local officials was held on Thursday. 
Tesla wins approval for Gigafactory Berlin expansion in Germany
By Joey Klender May 16, 2024
Quote
Tesla manager Riederer von Paar was on site to field questions from politicians and locals. One of which concerned built vehicle/inventory storage and future capacity plans if the expansion were approved. Additionally, von Paar talked about using the railway, which was one of the main pieces of the expansion, instead of typical on-road logistics.
“We could also handle a million vehicles by road; we want to do it by rail,” he said.
 
This work will be supplemented by 40,000 employees and potentially two million units of annual capacity in the future. Von Paar confirmed during the meeting that the current installed capacity still sits at half a million vehicles annually.
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-wins-approval-gigafactory-berlin-expansion-germany/
 
The plans involve logistics areas and a freight yard.
⬇️ pic.twitter.com/16wUp4dLer  Plot plan below

 
—- Giga Berlin setting records for sustainability
Quote
Tesla Manufacturing
Giga Berlin leads in sustainability, recycling up to 100% of the factory process waste water and using just 1.8 m³ per Model Y, far below the industry average of 3.7 m³.
5/16/24, https://x.com/gigafactories/status/1791033038601589015
 
➡️ pic.twitter.com/TbqPi0ls7d  3 min vid from the plant

 
—-
NEWS: The Chamber of Industry and Commerce near Tesla's Giga Berlin factory sees the protests against the Tesla as a threat to the economic development of the region. rbb24.de/panorama/beitr…
5/13/24, https://x.com/sawyermerritt/status/1790197539930521830

—-
Tesla strike in Sweden heats up as nation's largest union joins fray
May 14, 2024
The union told Reuters that about 44 of its members - roughly a third of Tesla's Swedish mechanics - had downed tools at the company, which does not produce vehicles in Sweden but services them locally.
But while union action has caused some disruption, Tesla's new vehicle registrations in Sweden have broadly kept pace with the market.
https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/tesla-strike-sweden-heats-up-nations-largest-union-joins-fray-2024-05-14/

 
—- Construction has kicked off for new Tesla Shanghai Megapack factory!
This will be Tesla's second Megapack factory and is set to produce 10,000 Megapacks each year, potentially generating over $20 billion in annual revenue for Tesla.
 
Full drone video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=az6ZtbGsohs&feature=youtu.be
 
➡️ pic.twitter.com/uf16UamWVW 3 min drone vid.  Another muddy field! 😄

—-
Cars Commerce Sr. Director of Industry Data:
“Overall, Tesla’s used car demand continues to hold strong year over year (+40%) and year to date (+32%), with the highest demand for the used Model Y (119% YoY; 65% YTD)."
 forbes.com/sites/brookecr…
5/19/24, https://x.com/sawyermerritt/status/1792260167758659730

 
—- Drone vid shows Cybertruck staging in the new Giga Texas parking garage
Quote
Joe Tegtmeyer 🚀 🤠🛸😎
There is a new @cybertruck staging location at Giga Texas … the ground floor of the multi-level parking garage! This is in addition to the E old testing lot, the W outbound lot & EOL facility & the SW factory corner where newly built Cybertrucks exit. Model Y production remains…
5/17/24, https://x.com/joetegtmeyer/status/1791478677680570785
 
⬇️  ➡️ pic.twitter.com/epVahB5vke  4 pics, 1 below.
 
< Any idea why Tesla is stockpiling so many Cybertrucks rather than sending them out for delivery? Could it be a problem or logistics getting them to the delivery points?
JT: They are shipping them out but also making a lot. Why we see a temp stockpile may be getting them on trucks and moved. They can’t load as many Cybertrucks as they can Model Ys on each truck so that might be part of the issue
They ship 7 days a week
 
< Are they trying to hide from you Joe? 😂
JT: If so, they are not being successful! 🤠😎

 
—- Cybertruck powers Houston gas station after storms knock out power
➡️ pic.twitter.com/UsWUmvUkRz  20 sec. Pumps and payments are working; walk through store to see power cords from the store plugged into the CT.
Quote
A video has emerged online showing a Tesla Cybertruck seemingly powering a gas station after the Houston tornado. The Houston area was battered by a line of severe thunderstorms earlier this week, and one EF-1 tornado was confirmed near Cypress. Due to the severe weather, over a million customers were left without power, as noted in a FOX Weather report.
➡️ https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-cybertruck-keeps-gas-station-operational-houston-tornado/

 
—-
⬇️ This rusted Cybertruck wrap is actually extremely well done. 😂
It was custom made for the rapper T.I.
This will surely troll some people lol
➡️ pic.twitter.com/ePOlDsdGX3   40 sec
Full video and process: https://youtu.be/PG8DRwoc47E&feature=youtu.be

——
Good-looking wrap
⬇️  pic.twitter.com/d56QBWDFJH  CT Roadster!
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #11711 on: May 21, 2024, 03:12:29 AM »
2-minute Tesla video today for shareholders: ➡️ pic.twitter.com/ONmB7oZfyM 
 
Has a quick sneak peek of Tesla's upcoming ride-hailing app: ➡️ pic.twitter.com/oM7MKNaOvz  gif
 
And a possible robotaxi model: ⬇️ my screencap below.

——
Separately:
Quote
David
 
Tesla Cybercab Interior
Our first look at the Tesla Robotaxi interior? No steering wheel, two-seat cab.
5/20/24, https://x.com/dkrasniy/status/1792693677275627583
⬇️  pic.twitter.com/W3WR9XOkEM 
 
 
====
Giga Texas
Quote
Elon Musk
 
The rear portion of the factory extension (the part furthest away from the glass) will be a super dense, water-cooled supercomputer cluster
5/20/24, https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1792421243024806156
⬇️ ➡️ pic.twitter.com/2cwusKaRuQ  drone pics

 
====
Hands - Free at last!
 
BREAKING: Tesla's FSD (Supervised) v12.4 has started to roll out to employees, and it has no steering wheel nag, according to @NotATeslaApp.
When enabled, the driver monitoring system now primarily relies on the cabin camera to determine driver attentiveness.
Source:… https://www.notateslaapp.com/software-updates/version/2024.9.5/release-notes
5/20/24, https://x.com/sawyermerritt/status/1792563030246432870
⬇️ pic.twitter.com/nDlUwpgrSx Textpic

Quote
<Something needs to be done about all the vehicles that are not getting updates. There are a lot still on v11.1 and paying for FSD.
 
Elon Musk
Should be very rare after the 12.4 rollout. We have to sync up vehicle software (way too many hardware variants) with FSD.
5/20/24, https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1792568940943565246
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nadir

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #11712 on: May 21, 2024, 08:04:09 PM »
So the idea is to start the Uber like service with humans driving Teslas with FSD and eventually eliminate the drivers… not bad idea actually but will not be competitive to Uber etc until it transitions… when/if it does.


Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #11713 on: May 22, 2024, 12:39:25 AM »
Tesla Semi update
 
—- Tesla's head of Semi engineering, Dan Priestley, says Tesla Semi trucks have driven over 3.5 million miles. He added the Semi is 65% more efficient with a max payload than gas rivals, averaging 1.7 kWh per mile across the fleet.
5/20/24, https://x.com/sawyermerritt/status/1792747114470277167

Speaking at the Advanced Clean Transportation (ACT) Expo in Las Vegas, Tesla exec Dan Priestley said, "We're building a factory in Nevada that is being ramped in 2026 for customer deliveries and ramping to eventual target capacity to 50,000 units a year."

Tesla's Semi charging network is operational with megawatt charging speeds, and the early fleet has an uptime greater than 95%.

PepsiCo last week started taking delivery of an additional 50 @Tesla Semi trucks, according to @danWpriestley. This is on top of the 36 Tesla Semis they already had.

⬇️ Below is the first ever rendering of @Tesla's Semi truck volume manufacturing facility in Nevada.  @danWpriestley confirmed today that once fully ramped, it will produce 50,000 all-electric Semi trucks per year.

PepsiCo will soon have a total 86 Tesla Semis in their fleet.
5/20/24, https://x.com/sawyermerritt/status/1792760338552590714
⬇️ pic.twitter.com/p67i09lmY5

Tesla stock pops after company reveals new details, deliveries for its semitruck program
Pras Subramanian Tue, May 21, 2024
Quote
The company confirmed its Tesla Semi remains on track for production-spec deliveries to customers by 2026 while offering more details on range and payload capacity for the EV truck.
..
In his presentation, Priestley said the company's long-range Semi would have a range of up to 500 miles with a 23,000-lb vehicle weight.
Its standard-range truck would be capable of 300-mile trips with an unladen 20,000-lb vehicle weight.

In real-world testing with Pepsico, Tesla Semis performed long-range runs of 250 and 520 miles with a gross vehicle weight including cargo of up to 82,000 lbs, the maximum allowed by law.

"[The trucks] could do more than 1000 miles in a 24-hour period; fast charging enables that," Priestley said.

All told, the Semi test fleet has accumulated 3.5 million test miles, Priestley said, with Tesla also using the Semi to deliver batteries from Nevada to its main plant in Fremont in extreme weather and mountainous regions.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla-stock-pops-after-company-reveals-new-details-deliveries-for-its-semitruck-program-174933019.html

Info from @OutofSpecPod's recording of his presentation:
« Last Edit: May 22, 2024, 12:51:09 AM by Sigmetnow »
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vox_mundi

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #11714 on: May 22, 2024, 05:55:23 PM »
Tesla in Full Self-Driving Mode Allegedly Tries to Drive Into Speeding Train
https://gizmodo.com/tesla-train-crash-fsd-autopilot-elon-musk-video-ohio-1851490746

A Tesla owner in Ohio had a terrifying experience recently when his car tried to drive him right into a crossing train, according to multiple videos posted to the Tesla Motors Club forum. The vehicle was in Full Self-Driving (FSD) mode and allegedly, this isn’t the first time the driver has experienced a disturbing incident at a railroad crossing.


“I have owned my Tesla for less than a year, and within the last six months, it has twice attempted to drive directly into a passing train while in FSD mode,” a forum user identified as Craig Doty II from Camden, Ohio wrote on Sunday. “The most recent incident occurred on May 8, 2024, and I have dash cam footage from that event.”

While FSD is said to be highly intuitive and safe, the system only has Level 2 autonomous driving (despite the misleading name), which means the driver needs to pay attention to the prevailing road conditions. In the video, the driver reacted in the nick of time, possibly expecting the FSD to take over and do something. Thankfully, the car didn't collide with the train. When the incident occurred, the vehicle was traveling at around 61-63 mph.


---------------------------------------------------------------

On self-driving, Waymo is playing chess while Tesla plays checkers
https://arstechnica.com/cars/2024/05/on-self-driving-waymo-is-playing-chess-while-tesla-plays-checkers/

We'll know Tesla is serious about robotaxis when it starts hiring remote operators.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #11715 on: May 22, 2024, 09:41:23 PM »
Tesla Semi update …

Dan also discussed a point that has been used in this thread as an argument against electric trucking:  how to deal with the vast power needs of an electric truck fleet.

Some solutions:
• Single-shift operations
• Megapack, to charge when rates are cheaper and make energy available as needed.
• Charging compatibility/ interoperability.  All OEMs agreed to adopt NACS for light duty vehicles.  Tesla was “not going to wait around for charging truck standards to get through all the committees,” so again, they went ahead with their own.  They envision future truck charging stations similar to today’s truck stops.
• Tesla has developed charging hardware to require the least amount of hardware “in the ground,” which makes charger installation easier and cheaper.
 
• Utilities often work in 3 megawatt blocks.  Once you get above 12 megawatts and requiring secondary feeds, that can require substation upgrades — “that’s something we’ve done, something we’re very comfortable with.”
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Bruce Steele

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #11716 on: May 23, 2024, 05:43:02 AM »
Sig, Thanks for the news about voyager ! Didn’t want to step on your post there.
 Still hope the Tesla truck has a big impact someday.
 I have seen a few cybertrucks driving around. One was in a small area, I was walking, it was noiseless as it went by other than tire noise. Seemed odd something than big yet noiseless.
 My 5.8 kW solar array and powerwalls work without any problems. Last year it produced 8,500 kWh and I used 563 kWh from the grid. Tesla powerwall technology is amazingly hands free , solar eight years, powerwalls four years without any issues.
 Being first wave on electric tractors is a different ride. But solar/ batteries keep it charged and we get work done although I don’t have the same confidence in the expected lifespan of technology without tech support , diagnostics, or technicians. With Tesla I don’t need those things, or haven’t so far, but with my tractor I am flying blind, could use some help and have no idea where to find it. Still fun, still working but tenuous.
 My butcher quit and without legal USDA butchers available within hundreds of miles I am toast as a hog farmer. My electric farm is entertaining for me but seriously nobody gives a crap , certainly not the agencies that create the tax deductions that enable it. I run eight freezers, two wells, a pressure pump, an A/C , electric clothes drier, an electric tractor and all lighting on a ten acre farm that sold about $90,000 of pork last year. I used total 563 kWh from the grid for the whole year.
 Planting lots of oaks and considering how I pivot hard. Electrics better enable something besides retirement or we are all f….d.

nadir

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #11717 on: May 23, 2024, 01:51:32 PM »
Tesla Semi update
 
—- Tesla's head of Semi engineering, Dan Priestley, says Tesla Semi trucks have driven over 3.5 million miles. He added the Semi is 65% more efficient with a max payload than gas rivals, averaging 1.7 kWh per mile across the fleet.
5/20/24, https://x.com/sawyermerritt/status/1792747114470277167


The aggregated mileage of 100-200 regular cars, not even delivery trucks, during the same 1.5 year time span. Comical statistics said with a straight face.

nadir

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #11718 on: May 23, 2024, 02:14:11 PM »
Tesla is publishing again the miles per accident under Autopilot (not sure if that includes the not-really-FSD feature too) and Tesla trolls quick to point that it is so much safer when compared with the US national statistics.

Only that:

- Autopilot should stay disengaged in heavy rain, fog, etc. poor visibility conditions, introducing an enormous bias in that statistics since a big proportion of accidents happen precisely in those conditions. The example above with the train shows FSD engaged when it shouldn’t (weird that you can keep FSD engaged in very poor visibility conditions).

- Autopilot/FSD capable Teslas are relatively new cars from 2020 onwards, mostly. The US statistics include many 10, 20, 30 year-old cars that, once again, are more prone to mechanical failures and lack of modern safety systems (ABS and lateral stabilization more notably).

Don’t believe a word, these days less than ever, from Tesla, from Enron Musk, and the cult especially all those Elon-anointed and made super-visible in Twitter (Omar, Sawyer, Alexandra, Warren, …). They are just creating a lot of noise before the shareholders vote to ensure the 40 billion plus in shares for their adored Elon, and also to pump the narrative for the 8/8 event.
« Last Edit: May 23, 2024, 02:37:22 PM by nadir »

Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #11719 on: May 23, 2024, 03:12:06 PM »
7.5 million miles per accident 🤯
pic.twitter.com/3L74qV50TG   

Quote
Tesla has released new Autopilot safety data, showing record safety.

In Q1 2024, Tesla recorded one crash for every 7.63 million miles driven in which drivers were using Autopilot technology, a new safety record and a 16% improvement vs the previous all-time best. For drivers who were not using Autopilot technology, Tesla recorded one crash for every 955,000 miles driven. By comparison, the most recent data available from NHTSA and FHWA (from 2022) shows that in the US there was an automobile crash approximately every 670,000 miles.

This is the first time in over a year that Tesla has shared new Autopilot safety data publicly.

Source: https://www.tesla.com/VehicleSafetyReport
5/22/24, https://x.com/sawyermerritt/status/1793439210457747806
« Last Edit: May 23, 2024, 03:17:42 PM by Sigmetnow »
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oren

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #11720 on: May 23, 2024, 03:17:09 PM »
As stated many times upthread over several years, this statistic is highly biased and doesn't mean anything much. That Tesla does not bother to provide non-biased statistics raises a suspicion that it's not as clear and sure as one might expect.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #11721 on: May 23, 2024, 03:21:21 PM »
As stated many times upthread over several years, this statistic is highly biased and doesn't mean anything much. That Tesla does not bother to provide non-biased statistics raises a suspicion that it's not as clear and sure as one might expect.

Tesla clearly defines what it counts as a “crash.”  How does NHTSA define it?  Do we have equivalent statistics for the US?

EDIT:
And as Vox so clearly illustrates, even non-crash Tesla events are splashed across as headline news, so it’s not like there are a plethora of Tesla crashes that no one knows about.
« Last Edit: May 23, 2024, 04:02:52 PM by Sigmetnow »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #11722 on: May 23, 2024, 03:42:15 PM »
Tesla Semi update
 
—- Tesla's head of Semi engineering, Dan Priestley, says Tesla Semi trucks have driven over 3.5 million miles. He added the Semi is 65% more efficient with a max payload than gas rivals, averaging 1.7 kWh per mile across the fleet.
5/20/24, https://x.com/sawyermerritt/status/1792747114470277167

The aggregated mileage of 100-200 regular cars, not even delivery trucks, during the same 1.5 year time span. Comical statistics said with a straight face.

As you so frequently note, the Tesla Semi fleet is still small.  But 3.5 million miles is adequate to show the efficiency and cost savings that their electric semi will offer. 

“The heaviest loads average about 2 kWh per mile.  Lighter loads, about 1.5.”

As Dan also noted, it’s not just the truck design that is being optimized before the Tesla ramping begins.  It is also the infrastructure, and real-life, day to day learnings.

Diesel truck fleets like to perform their own servicing, for a profit.  “Service is not a profit center” for the Tesla Semi.  But Tesla is working with PepsiCo on things like tires that Pepsi can handle for now, anticipating that more will be possible later. “We need to assure you have the right tools to do it.”

Above all, Dan stressed that an electric drive train glommed onto an ICE truck will never be efficient, and that fleets should not try to hedge their bets on e-trucks by being timid.
“15 years ago, we were screaming, you should be developing vehicles that are purpose-built EVs. The idea of a powertrain-agnostic design does not lead to compelling vehicles.  And we’ve seen this.  We need other folks to dive fully into EVs.  Challenge the historical norms.  If you demo 1 truck, then 10, then 100, you will be half a decade behind everyone who wants to go faster.  Look at how you can go electric at scale quickly, so you can unlock savings faster.  Leverage the data from other parts of the industry. Going in with both feet is what I want to emphasize.”
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #11723 on: May 23, 2024, 04:16:23 PM »
Sig, Thanks for the news about voyager ! Didn’t want to step on your post there.
 Still hope the Tesla truck has a big impact someday.
 I have seen a few cybertrucks driving around. One was in a small area, I was walking, it was noiseless as it went by other than tire noise. Seemed odd something than big yet noiseless.
 My 5.8 kW solar array and powerwalls work without any problems. Last year it produced 8,500 kWh and I used 563 kWh from the grid. Tesla powerwall technology is amazingly hands free , solar eight years, powerwalls four years without any issues.
 Being first wave on electric tractors is a different ride. But solar/ batteries keep it charged and we get work done although I don’t have the same confidence in the expected lifespan of technology without tech support , diagnostics, or technicians. With Tesla I don’t need those things, or haven’t so far, but with my tractor I am flying blind, could use some help and have no idea where to find it. Still fun, still working but tenuous.
 My butcher quit and without legal USDA butchers available within hundreds of miles I am toast as a hog farmer. My electric farm is entertaining for me but seriously nobody gives a crap , certainly not the agencies that create the tax deductions that enable it. I run eight freezers, two wells, a pressure pump, an A/C , electric clothes drier, an electric tractor and all lighting on a ten acre farm that sold about $90,000 of pork last year. I used total 563 kWh from the grid for the whole year.
 Planting lots of oaks and considering how I pivot hard. Electrics better enable something besides retirement or we are all f….d.

Bruce,
Yesterday, I saw my first Cybertruck out here in the boonies! (OK, two towns over.  But, still. :) )  OEMs would need at least 5-7 years to come up with anything other than their standard pickup, and none of them can afford such investment at this point, so we’ll have to see what they do, if they survive their current pull-back on EVs.

It sounds like your electric farm experiment has worked out rather well.  You should continue to let others know what you have learned.

Farming is hard!  Yet there must be others who would love to grow their dream agri-projects but don’t have the land to do so.  Just need to get you all together.  Flyers at the county ag office? ;)
« Last Edit: May 23, 2024, 04:24:33 PM by Sigmetnow »
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NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #11724 on: May 23, 2024, 08:14:29 PM »
As stated many times upthread over several years, this statistic is highly biased and doesn't mean anything much. That Tesla does not bother to provide non-biased statistics raises a suspicion that it's not as clear and sure as one might expect.

All statistics are biased.  They are biased by selection criteria is nothing else.

I tend to ignore stuff like this but Government agencies look to them as an enabler to making decisions which are harder to second guess later.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #11725 on: May 24, 2024, 12:30:03 AM »
Tesla Impact Report
 
Article:
https://x.com/tesla/status/1793628827626656176

Full Impact Report here → tesla.com/impact 
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cognitivebias2

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #11726 on: May 24, 2024, 01:14:32 AM »
Tesla is working their way thru the reservation list pretty quickly.  At least if you are willing to take a 'Foundation Series' version.   This is for RN1131xxxxx.

LIMITED-EDITION | FULLY OPTIONED
EXCLUSIVE BADGES | PREMIUM ACCESSORIES

$99,990

ALL-WHEEL DRIVE
EST. DELIVERY JULY - SEPTEMBER 2024

$119,990

CYBERBEAST
EST. DELIVERY OCTOBER - DECEMBER 2024


nadir

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #11727 on: May 24, 2024, 03:43:56 PM »
Tesla is working their way thru the reservation list pretty quickly.  At least if you are willing to take a 'Foundation Series' version.   This is for RN1131xxxxx.

LIMITED-EDITION | FULLY OPTIONED
EXCLUSIVE BADGES | PREMIUM ACCESSORIES

$99,990

ALL-WHEEL DRIVE
EST. DELIVERY JULY - SEPTEMBER 2024

$119,990

CYBERBEAST
EST. DELIVERY OCTOBER - DECEMBER 2024

That can be good news for Tesla (production acceleration) or bad news for Tesla (reservations increasingly being canceled).

cognitivebias2

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #11728 on: May 24, 2024, 06:07:54 PM »
I think the take rate has to be low.  I looked around, there are lots available for resale as well.  They still get a premium, but it is dropping fast.  It may be risky to try to flip one now.

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #11729 on: May 25, 2024, 02:00:47 AM »
It is undeniable that Elron Musk and his Twitter->X adventure as Musketeer of Free Speech has not only elevated visibility of Elon cultists, the extreme right, porn, black-on-white violence, creepy and morbid videos, and Premium assholes with their shitty opinions in general.

It has also severely damaged the Tesla brand.

nadir

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #11730 on: May 26, 2024, 02:53:36 PM »
Plenty of rumors, based on a recent Elon Musk interview, that xAI is developing a new supercomputer for their always-lagging “Grok”, poaching Tesla engineers, and deprioritizing the own Tesla supercomputer, the never-existed “Dojo”. Tesla has now its own infrastructure for FSD training based on Nvidia gpus, and supposedly growing so that FSD will be ready for the XXII century.

Interesting that it is some Tesla bulls who are most nervous and concerned by these rumors:

https://x.com/neil_x10/status/1794641539974807697

BTW I don’t think this Neil is “our” Neil. Two different Tesla fans.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #11731 on: May 26, 2024, 05:02:19 PM »
Improving the company’s AI improves FSD and Optimus.  The business (and ethics) case is:  we can’t afford to be left behind.

“Elon Musk's xAI is planning to build a massive supercomputer by fall 2025, dubbed the 'Gigafactory of Compute.' This project aims to link 100,000 specialized GPUs, making it four times larger than the current largest AI clusters. Musk has indicated potential collaboration with Oracle Corporation for the development of this supercomputer, which is intended to power the next versions of xAI's AI, known as Grok. The project has sparked discussions about the future of AI and its potential to surpass human cognition, with Musk aiming to catch up with competitors like OpenAI and DeepMind by the end of 2024.“ -Grok

Elon Musk reportedly building ‘Gigafactory of Compute’ for AI
https://cointelegraph.com/news/elon-musk-gigafactory-of-compute-grok-artificial-intelligence-ai
 
   —-
Musk recently said he expected xAI to catch up to OpenAI and DeepMind Google by the end of 2024.
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nadir

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #11732 on: May 26, 2024, 05:35:39 PM »
Wow the Gigafactory of Compute! Sounds like an attraction from a 1960’s Amusement Park, next to “The UFO Mega-chase” roller coaster!

That’s exciting! And expensive! What is Musk using to leverage the needed investment? And how building this for Optimus etc *outside* of Tesla benefits Tesla?

Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #11733 on: May 26, 2024, 06:57:56 PM »
Quote
And how building this for Optimus etc *outside* of Tesla benefits Tesla?
The same way inconel and steel variants designed by SpaceX are incorporated into Teslas, and Tesla batteries are used in SpaceX rockets. Many engineers work at both companies.

“x.AI is a separate company from X Corp, even though they have a close working relationship. While it is a separate entity, it collaborates closely with X Corp, Tesla, and other companies under Elon Musk's umbrella. This arrangement allows for the sharing of resources and the development of AI technologies that can be applied across various platforms and industries.”  —Grok
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #11734 on: May 26, 2024, 10:40:12 PM »
As an Nvidia share owner, I can only be satisfied that Mr. Musk wants to make use of 100,000 Blackwell Units for his AI factory.
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NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #11735 on: May 27, 2024, 07:50:09 PM »
That’s exciting! And expensive! What is Musk using to leverage the needed investment? And how building this for Optimus etc *outside* of Tesla benefits Tesla?

It is amazing what caution comes from experience.  Confinity and X.  OpenAI (not so open any more), these are learning experiences for Elon.

When he says that he will not drive the technology needed by Tesla to make FSD and Optimus world leaders unless he can be sure that he is not at risk of losing control of those technologies, he means "I won't develop them in Tesla unless I can control them".
This is not a threat, this is not blackmail. These are terms and conditions of driving the technology.

Musk is already driving the core of these technologies elsewhere.  Tesla will benefit as will X and SpaceX.

It is not so hard to understand.  You just need to listen.

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NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #11736 on: May 27, 2024, 07:51:24 PM »
As an Nvidia share owner, I can only be satisfied that Mr. Musk wants to make use of 100,000 Blackwell Units for his AI factory.

Just remember that Intel once "owned" the PC chip industry.  The companies which made trillions were using Intel chips, not making them.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #11737 on: May 28, 2024, 03:23:14 PM »
Great news for xAI.
xAI, Elon Musk's AI company, has proudly declared the successful completion of its Series B funding round, raising a substantial $6 billion.
 
The newly acquired funds are earmarked for the launch of xAI's pioneering products, the development of cutting-edge infrastructure, and the rapid advancement of research and development for future technologies.
 
Source ➡️ x.ai/blog/series-b
 
5/27/24, https://x.com/stillgray/status/1794976258390126776
 
< Pre-money valuation was $18B
5/27/24, https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1794975702812426595

This makes it the largest series A or series B round for any company in history. 
2x previous record holder


< [Make x.AI a part of Tesla?]
Elon Musk
Nov 23, 2023
This does seem like a compelling argument, but must go through a formal Tesla board process and independent valuation

 
stevenmarkryan
xAI Worth $18 Billion, Raises $6 Billion in Record-Breaking Round
Why Tesla Investors Should Care

pic.twitter.com/y9xCEDnEkL  or watch ⬇️
May 28, 2024. 22 min
5/28/24, https://x.com/stevenmarkryan/status/1795322861164331503
 


From the video:
Quote
Tesla:
Compute (DoJo)
Foundational building block of AGI underway (FSD)
5+ million data-collecting robots (vehicles)
Optimus bot

flywheel which requires the building and deployment of MILLIONS of vehicles to collect data.. close to impossible for others to do this so how does ANYONE catch up?
X's data stream of text, images and video is what TESLA is missing from solving AGI entirely.... so both companies need each other.

——
Quote
Tesla
FSD Supervised Highlights
Recent FSD Supervised highlights from our owners
5/27/24, ➡️  https://x.com/tesla/status/1795194936964366377
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #11738 on: May 28, 2024, 03:37:39 PM »
NEWS: Tesla has secured a new $150 million+ (estimate) Megapack contract for a new battery in Australia.   
It will be the first eight-hour battery to be built in Australia.

 
< Historically, 4-hour ESSs have been the norm.
The market for 8-hour ESS will double in size in the future. 🫡

 
< Australia is becoming Tesla biggest client for Megapacks… Our grid is currently over 30% sustainable energy 👌

German energy giant presses go on Australia’s first eight-hour big battery
https://reneweconomy.com.au/germany-energy-giant-presses-go-on-australias-first-eight-hour-big-battery/
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #11739 on: May 28, 2024, 04:33:23 PM »
That’s exciting! And expensive! What is Musk using to leverage the needed investment? And how building this for Optimus etc *outside* of Tesla benefits Tesla?

It is amazing what caution comes from experience.  Confinity and X.  OpenAI (not so open any more), these are learning experiences for Elon.

When he says that he will not drive the technology needed by Tesla to make FSD and Optimus world leaders unless he can be sure that he is not at risk of losing control of those technologies, he means "I won't develop them in Tesla unless I can control them".
This is not a threat, this is not blackmail. These are terms and conditions of driving the technology.

Musk is already driving the core of these technologies elsewhere.  Tesla will benefit as will X and SpaceX.

It is not so hard to understand.  You just need to listen.

Or it is just a clever way to not overpromise again.

And why should he be able to control them? He is not the owner of Tesla?
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #11740 on: May 28, 2024, 07:25:08 PM »
That’s exciting! And expensive! What is Musk using to leverage the needed investment? And how building this for Optimus etc *outside* of Tesla benefits Tesla?

It is amazing what caution comes from experience.  Confinity and X.  OpenAI (not so open any more), these are learning experiences for Elon.

When he says that he will not drive the technology needed by Tesla to make FSD and Optimus world leaders unless he can be sure that he is not at risk of losing control of those technologies, he means "I won't develop them in Tesla unless I can control them".
This is not a threat, this is not blackmail. These are terms and conditions of driving the technology.

Musk is already driving the core of these technologies elsewhere.  Tesla will benefit as will X and SpaceX.

It is not so hard to understand.  You just need to listen.

Or it is just a clever way to not overpromise again.

And why should he be able to control them? He is not the owner of Tesla?

x.AI is not a part of Tesla — yet. ;)  But Musk wants to be able to influence the direction the AI will take, so as not to make mistakes like OpenAI and Gemini’s awful political correctness.  He wants a maximum truth-seeking system that will benefit humanity.

So Musk has said that unless he has a 25% voting share of Tesla stock, allowing him to influence (but not solely control) the direction a Tesla AI will take, he will not bring x.AI to Tesla.
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nadir

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #11741 on: May 28, 2024, 08:22:28 PM »
Lol read the things you write, it’s like a novella. What a narrative, Musk, the humanist, wants full control (40 billion dollar or so) to make sure Tesla AI has the best behavior and saves the humankind from the woke virus.

ROFL.

And, what about FSD, arguably the most important application of future-Tesla? Will it disobey DEI-recruited police agents? 😂😂😂

will Optimus use the word “retard” with a sarcastic wink?

« Last Edit: May 28, 2024, 08:29:55 PM by nadir »

Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #11742 on: Today at 01:41:08 AM »
Quote
Gene has been quite bullish on Tesla lately - yet we now know he has inside information on XAI. Which indicates he doesn't believe XAI is going to pull value away from Tesla in any meaningful way. This is good news all round.
5/28/24, https://x.com/amusingelon/status/1795490124593082482

 
Gene Munster [Managing Partner, Deepwater management]
 
Thrilled to report that Deepwater is an investor in xAI's recent round. Despite the lofty $24B valuation for what is effectively a startup, we are confident in the investment for four reasons:
 
1) We believe there will be about four primary proprietary foundation models that will effectively power the Western World. Generative AI is just scratching the surface and its utility will take a lightyear jump once we hit general intelligence.
 
2) xAI's model is built to be "truthful, competent, and maximally beneficial for all of humanity." This is a distinction from some of the mishaps from some of the existing foundation models and gives xAI an opportunity to be the model of choice for the sciences. Additionally, businesses that tend to be more right-leaning will likely prefer building on top of xAI given the model will likely better align with their culture.
 
3) xAI has the benefit of training on data from X. These 250m daily active users will give xAI the world's best data for real-time intention and news.
 
4) The Elon factor. His involvement is central to the success of the company given his vision has a unique power to attract worldclass talent and deep pockets to fund what will be an incredibly capital intensive 5-year infrastructure build.
 
I'll be back with more later today.
5/28/24, 11:13 AM  https://x.com/munster_gene/status/1795473480000913575

   —-
 
Gene Munster
xAI is going to ride the biggest paradigm shift in the last 100 years.
5/28/24, 7:22 PM  https://x.com/munster_gene/status/1795596612485718166
 
Investing in xAI | Deepwater
 
Key Takeaways
 
1. The $6B round will start the ball rolling on the long road of catching up to OpenAI and Anthropic.
 
2. Our investment framework uses a mental model for investing in paradigm shifts inspired by the PC, the Internet, and the smartphone. We believe AI represents the greatest of those opportunities and is built on top of foundation models.
 
3. Grok is xAI's flagship chatbot, a direct competitor to ChatGPT.
 
4. xAI was founded in part on Musk's frustrations with OpenAI
 
[continues…]
➡️ https://deepwatermgmt.com/investing-in-xai/
« Last Edit: Today at 02:00:55 AM by Sigmetnow »
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