Tesla glory/failure

[Archimid]

Tesla patents new battery cell for faster charge, better longevity, and lower cost


https://electrek.co/2019/02/01/tesla-patent-battery-cell/

Tesla’s battery research group led by Jeff Dahn in Halifax has applied for a patent that describes a new battery cell chemistry that would result in faster charging and discharging, better longevity, and even lower cost.

Cha-ching 

[Sigmetnow]

   People love Tesla.  Get over it.

Tesla tops the latest Consumer Reports satisfaction survey.

Tesla Model 3 tops list of vehicles that ‘bring the most joy’

Tesla Model 3 is topping many lists these days like
best-selling all-electric vehicles,
best value retention,
best-selling premium vehicles in the US, but now it is adding another one to the list: the vehicle that ‘brings the most joy’.

Consumer Reports released its latest consumer satisfaction survey (Paywall), which it says “measure how happy car buyers are with the car they own.”

It listed the top ten vehicles that they believe “bring their owners the most joy” based on data collected from owners of “more than half a million vehicles.”

Tesla Model 3 ended up at the top spot – beating the Porsche 911, which has consistently been one of the most loved cars by owners.

The publication is adding weight to a statement made by Tesla CEO Elon Musk during the company’s conference call for their fourth quarter earnings earlier this week:

“The customer happiness level with [Model 3] is incredible and I think probably the highest of any car in the world right now, I think. And so you can tell like, basically, nobody wants to sell their car.”

He was referring to Tesla Model 3 topping resale value ranking as availability is limited on the used market.

Interestingly, Tesla made the list twice with the Model S also coming in 5th place.
Out of the top 10 vehicles, there are 3 different all-electric vehicles. Along with Tesla’s Model 3 and Model S, the Chevy Bolt EV made the cut – taking the 8th position.

Here’s the full list:
   1   Tesla Model 3
   2   Porsche 911
   3   Genesis G90
   4   Chevrolet Corvette
   5   Tesla Model S
   6   Toyota Avalon
   7   Kia Stinger
   8   Chevrolet Bolt
   9   Toyota Prius
   10   Dodge Challenger

https://electrek.co/2019/02/01/tesla-model-3-tops-satisfaction-brings-joy/

[BeeKnees]

Turns out my 25%-75% range was cautious but alas correct. 75% collapse in sales.

That's some deceit you are trying to pull.  No mention that you were initially refering to the US market and if production hasn't increased then shipping abroad can only lead to a reduction in supply for the US market.

So your win is that focus of sales has shifted rather fallen, not exactly rocket science to work out that was happening.

[Sigmetnow]

From the Q4 2018 Financial Analysis Conference Call:

Elon Musk -- Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer

And we're not even really trying, I should point out. I guess it's - - we -- our factory is like, right now, only making cars for China and Europe. That's all it's doing for -- with respect to Model 3. And our whole focus is, OK, how do we get those cars made, get them on a ship as fast as possible, get the ship as fast as possible to Zeebrugge in Belgium then get them over to Drammen in Norway and get those cars to customers as fast as possible.

We get them to China as fast as possible. In China, we were also -- yes, we don't [know] what's going to happen with the trade negotiations. So that's very important to get those cars especially to China as soon as possible. We hope the trade negotiations go well, but it's not clear.

But we need to get them there while there's sort of a de facto -- sort of a truce on the tariff war. And the demand gen is really not one of the things we're thinking about.
…
Deepak Ahuja -- Chief Financial Officer

Yes, I mean, I think reservations are not relevant for us. We are really focused on orders. Now we do have a large reservations backlog still, which tells us that a lot of customers are still waiting for those cars, but I don't think it's appropriate to share the reservations number.

https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2019/01/31/tesla-tsla-q4-2018-earnings-conference-call-transc.aspx

Tesla Model 3 U.S. sales down as automaker readies for Europe and Chinese invasions.

The expected result of shifting to overseas is seen in our estimates, but that doesn’t imply that demand for the Model 3 has fallen. In fact, demand abroad is high and is being fulfilled now, so on the U.S. side, a slip was inevitable.

Because of low in-transit vehicles at the end of Q4 and with Tesla stating that all current production of the Model 3 would be focused on Europe and China, we had to be conservative with January figures. Additionally, January is known to be the weakest sales months for all EVs, not just Teslas. And it’s not just the Model 3. In a typical first month of the quarter, Tesla sends more Model S and X abroad too, which is reflected in our figures.

There’s good news though. Tesla was delivering Model 3s quickly, with reports of U.S. buyers receiving their cars in a week, or just a few days in some cases. …

https://insideevs.com/tesla-model-3-sales-u-s-january-2019/

“our factory is like, right now, only making cars for China and Europe. That's all it's doing for -- with respect to Model 3.”

Yet Tesla’s Total US Sales in January 2019 still reached 8,325. That is 49.3% of US EV Market share and an increase of 247% from Jan 2018.

Images below: Inside EVs US EV Sales, and Teslas ready to be loaded onto the GLOVIS vehicle transport ship in San Francisco, California.

[GoSouthYoungins]

Turns out my 25%-75% range was cautious but alas correct. 75% collapse in sales.

That's some deceit you are trying to pull.  No mention that you were initially refering to the US market and if production hasn't increased then shipping abroad can only lead to a reduction in supply for the US market.

So your win is that focus of sales has shifted rather fallen, not exactly rocket science to work out that was happening.

Wrong, wrong and wrong. No deceit at all from me. I was clearly talking about Model 3 demand (hence the almost $4k more expensive talk), and I was clearly talking about the US market (hence the almost $4k more expensive talk). I literally said, "If a car gets $4k more expensive in one month, what happens to the demand? Does it decrease by 25%, half, 75%?"

Tesla admits to having over 7,000 cars without buyers sitting in lots around the country. The demand has fallen off a cliff. Sure, they can now do the same short burst abroad. At best thats one more quarter of revenue. But basically, the demand is gone. If they have the dignity to file before they pay back the $920m, their is a much better chance they can just restructure and wont have to liquidate. If you have any hope of seeing Tesla stick around, you should be rooting for their creditors to take a haircut, their shareholders to lose everything, and a restructured (and Muskless) Tesla focusing on niche techy performance EVs.

[GoSouthYoungins]

Tesla patents new battery cell for faster charge, better longevity, and lower cost


https://electrek.co/2019/02/01/tesla-patent-battery-cell/

Tesla’s battery research group led by Jeff Dahn in Halifax has applied for a patent that describes a new battery cell chemistry that would result in faster charging and discharging, better longevity, and even lower cost.

Cha-ching 

If that's legit it could be a big deal. Potentially a serious asset which can help advert chapter 7.

Something funny about the whole battery thing. On the most recent call, Musk said he couldn't give any details about Tesla's batteries they are getting cuz they are "highly proprietary".  Later in the call, Musk was asked about battery suppliers in China and how that works with tariffs and the like, and he responded, "it really doesn't matter...any battery will do". Unbelievable.

[GoSouthYoungins]

Slightly more in depth look at the "China Giga". Not just a Tesla blog purrrring about how awesome it will be.

https://dailykanban.com/2019/02/funding-for-teslas-china-factory-not-secured/

[BeeKnees]

Wrong, wrong and wrong. No deceit at all from me.

So you were making a veiled claim about how many of the teslas produced would be shipped abroad instead of for the US market in a month when traditionally tesla has focused abroad and had said it would do so after focusing domestically up until the price rise.  You claimed a collapse for all models and yet year on year deliveries of all models increased.  It's selective stats at best to support an agenda from what I can see.

Seriously sounds like you are overhyping your claims.  Demand for the higher spec models was always going to peak and then level off, like your claim of a collapse in numbers to continue, I will wait to see the truth of it.  If you'd asked me 3 months ago whether they would achieve two profitable quarters in a row I wouldn't have believed you so again I find this just overdoing a middling performance as if it's a complete disaster. 

[magnamentis]

   People love Tesla.  Get over it.

Tesla tops the latest Consumer Reports satisfaction survey.

i like tesla products too but:

i never heard a mercedes driver say that bmw's are better if you know what i mean.

people live after the "motto" what i own is best, because they chose so or had to choose so and would not admit usually bad choice and/or lack of i.e. money or other resources.

in short, what i'm saying is that such reports are as useless as are the doomsday predictions, the truth will like so often lay somewhere in between those extremes.

one very frustrating thing for me as a reader is that both sides (extremes) have their very valid points but apparently are not able to admit that, but insist on their point of view and select "facts" ONLY.

a more serious approach would be to specifically admit true facts of eventual opponents and elaborate why one things that his reasoning will have a stronger impact (will prevail) like this much more information could be spread to everyone and not only half to each his half of followers.

it's like the jews, the christians and the muslims fight for millenia / centuries over a few details while in fact they share 99% of the same believes, same god, same prophets (just which one is the main prophet) same history and for that insignificant non-sense of something eventually entirely wrong anyways has caused and is still causing millions of deaths.

in fact the war(s) over those details are placeholders for greed and ego based interest, not more and not less.

[oren]

GSY, to be honest I haven't missed you one bit on this thread when you were gone. You are back to your endless consecutive posts making inaccurate statements and crying for bankruptcy again, after you previous predictions from before the Q3 results backfired in a big way.
To your specific recent point, does a 75% drop in US sales mean a 75% drop in US demand, during a month in which most production was earmarked to be shipped abroad? I think not, and the link you provided thinks not as well.
And yet you argue with BeeKnees about how correct your predictions are. Tiresome.
The jury is still out on Tesla, but you are too biased to make a proper judgement.

[GoSouthYoungins]

You claimed a collapse for all models.

I literally began my post with, "Lets take a guess at model 3..." and then I never mentioned any other models. <snip, careful there; N.>

Also, I posed the whole thing as a question to see what people thought the price elasticity of the model 3 was. I think that it is actually an interesting thing to contemplate. But the Teslemmings just wanna fight.

[GoSouthYoungins]

<snip, you're in thread full of Tesla bulls, stop doing this:



; N.>

[GoSouthYoungins]

To your specific recent point, does a 75% drop in US sales mean a 75% drop in US demand, during a month in which most production was earmarked to be shipped abroad? I think not, and the link you provided thinks not as well.

Well you are wrong. Basic econ. Demand means demand at a certain price. Despite what Musk might think, it is totally irrelevant what the DESIRE for a good is at whatever price.

Obviously it is cheapest and thus most profitable for Tesla to sell a given model in the US. So if the demand existed in the US vs the same price point demand in Europe, Tesla would sell the vehicle in the US. Basic business. So if Tesla is sending the vehicle abroad, the demand doesn't exist domestically.

It is so simple, and so obvious. The fact that y'all claim that I am the one blinded by bias is truly precious.

[BeeKnees]

...

Selective again,
I asked if you are predicting a collapse on all models based on severall posts you made and you confirmed it.

[GoSouthYoungins]

...

Selective again,
I asked if you are predicting a collapse on all models based on severall posts you made and you confirmed it.

False. Which is confirmed by your lack of ability to quote anything supporting your accusations other than "..."

I'll remove all doubt. Here is what I actually said:

Lets guess at Model 3 decline in Q1. Lets pretend it is any other vehicle. It is known that it gets almost $4k more expensive on Jan 1. How many people buy the car in Q1 vs Q4? 75% as many? Half? 25%? I really don't know. But it has to be way less right?!?  This is why Tesla cut prices by $2k to partially offset, right? Any other theories as to why demand will be flat or up, and/or why if demand is fine that they cut prices?

Now please lay off the false accusation, and just engage with me on what I am actually trying to discuss. We can totally disagree about the future of Tesla and actually have fruitful discussion about certain aspects related to the company. But not if you keep trying to triangulate several of my posts together to decide I was saying something I never said.

[GoSouthYoungins]

<snip, you're in thread full of Tesla bulls, stop doing this:

; N.>

Am I the girl, or the guy in the hat?

[Neven]

Am I the girl, or the guy in the hat?

I'm the black guy.

[NeilT]

Now please lay off the false accusation, and just engage with me on what I am actually trying to discuss. We can totally disagree about the future of Tesla and actually have fruitful discussion about certain aspects related to the company. But not if you keep trying to triangulate several of my posts together to decide I was saying something I never said.

GSY, you are being selective with your viewpoint again.  The Q4 Tesla call stated that ALL EV's are historically weak on demand in January.  So if you have a backlog elsewhere and are expanding elsewhere in the world, in order to utilise the staff ramp up you have in place, you will deliver where the demand is.

US demand will pick up again, as it does historically, later in the quarter and then they will rebalance their deliveries.

This doesn't sound to me like a business going under, it sounds smart.  A business going under has factory shutdown days and a constant see saw in staff employment.

If you can give me a good reason why a company would switch supply to a market where demand has been high, but delivery low, when US demand is at it's historically lowest for the year, I'd love to hear it.  But without that reason I'd say you are reaching.

You predicted several things last year.  Two of which were that Tesla would make a technical and unsustainable profit in Q3 and that it would go bankrupt by being unable to fund both production and debts in Q4.

In fact what happened was that Tesla made a strong profit in Q3, sufficient to support Tesla in manufacturing and to also fund the debt in Q4.  Tesla continues to make a profit at the current rate of sales and price of the models that it makes.

You also predicted that Tesla would run out of free cash because of the rate at which it was burning it.  Notably free cash flow increased in Q4 even though profit did not.  This is indicative of a sustainable profit curve where Tesla can fund future operations out of existing reserves, reducing the cost of that money.

Right now, from a business perspective, Tesla is doing and reporting, everything a successful business should. Even though vehicle manufacture, around the world, is in recession.

You have told me that I don't understand how a company runs, how it is financed, how the markets work and that I'm producing clueless predictions as to how Tesla is going to continue.

So far I've been right and you have been 100% wrong.

What should we think?  I do believe that reigning in Musk, at this critical point, is going to stunt the possible future of Tesla, all to keep the SEC happy in compliance with the rules.  Which will, in the end, do far more damage to investors than any tweet Musk could do.  But that is a personal feeling and is not, currently, borne out by the facts of the company profit.

Tesla right now? Go LONG.

[BeeKnees]

What you never said.

What's your guess?

At the moment you appear to be predicting a collapse of sales across all models so it will be interesting to see if this is as good as your last screams of doom.

I'll wait and see.

If by 25%-75% as much as before is what you mean by "collapse", then yes I am. 

Tbh, you are so busy ranting that trying to pin you down on anything is a fruitless task, so I'll leave you be.

[GoSouthYoungins]

Am I the girl, or the guy in the hat?

I'm the black guy.

This is very symbolic of how people respond to a direct and simple question on this thread.

[GoSouthYoungins]

You predicted several things last year.  Two of which were that Tesla would make a technical and unsustainable profit in Q3 and that it would go bankrupt by being unable to fund both production and debts in Q4.

Tesla right now? Go LONG.

They should have filed. I figured they wanted to restructure. Makes all the sense in the world. The longer this goes on, the less of on option that will become. If the pay the march bill, it will pretty much guarantee chapter 7.

So what is your price target on TSLA? Fun fact, in Q4 the group with the highest price target, sold 45% of their shares...

https://www.holdingschannel.com/13f/ark-investment-management-llc-top-holdings/



They should have interviewed Kylo Ren to get the bear perspective.

[Neven]

Yes, you're the girl. Stop lashing out, and stop saying people are stupid.

[Sigmetnow]

At this point, one can argue about how much and how fast Tesla will grow in the coming years.  But claiming there is a Demand cliff — based only on the North American Market, when it’s clear the product is currently being produced at volume and shopped to eager international markets… and with new Tesla demand levers and more affordable models in the pipeline (leasing, standard interior, etc.) which will multiply the total addressable market even further… predicting bankwuptcy makes absolutely no sense.

Recent U.S. Model 3 orderers are being told to expect their cars in about two months.  This is a supply restriction, not a demand restriction.

——
Based on Alpha Hat’s research Tesla has been selling Model 3 at about 2.7k/week in US only. That easily leaves about 3.5k/week or more going to Europe and China. Tesla is producing gangbusters of Model 3 now.
https://blog.alphahat.com/teslas-us-q1-deliveries-are-surprisingly-high-so-far-e87cd1df54f8

Tesla officially launches Model 3 in China, announces cheaper version coming
https://electrek.co/2019/02/01/tesla-model-3-china-cheaper-version-coming/

TESLA

Average Sale Price
Q4 2017: $56,000
Q4 2018: $57,000

Base Price
Q4 2017: $49,000
Q4 2018: $44,000

Gross Margin
Q4 2017: Negative
Q4 2018: >20%

Deliveries
Q4 2017: 1,550
Q4 2018: 63,359

https://twitter.com/valueanalyst1/status/1091753185067393024

$TSLA annual revenue (billions). Would you like to guess 2019 $tslaq? $35B?
2018: $21.46
2017: $11.76
2016: $7.00
2015: $4.05
2014: $3.20
2013: $2.01
2012: $0.41
2011: $0.20
2010: $0.12
2009: $0.11
2008: $0.01

[Compound Annual Growth Rate]:
2 yr: 75%
5 yr: 60%
10 yr: 107%

https://twitter.com/teslaopinion/status/1091614700037562368

Wow. $GM debt is rising while sales are falling. Meanwhile $TSLA sales are rising with no increase in debt (falling).

https://twitter.com/abledoc/status/1091316453381365765
Chart below. Size of bubble = Debt.

5 reasons not to bet against Tesla (for now)

…For starters, Tesla had $3.7 billion in cash at the end of 2018, an increase of about $700 million from Sept. 30. While the company would obviously rather deploy that cash in growth and production, it’s not at risk of going under here.
…
Like it or lump it, Musk is going to be around for a long time — and as a result, he will fight tooth and nail to ensure Tesla isn’t going anywhere either.
…
Even if this wasn’t Musk’s company through and through, he’s not going anywhere with insider connections like this.
Furthermore, have you ever met a Tesla enthusiast? This company has some of the most loyal product owners and shareholders on the planet, and they would laugh in the face of any Big Auto buyout offer or efficiency expert that argues for a management shakeup. Musk may have his rough edges, but like Jeff Bezos and Steve Jobs, he is an iconic leader who has made a career out of proving his critics wrong with his own style of aggressive leadership. …

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/five-reasons-not-to-bet-against-tesla-for-now-2019-02-02

[GoSouthYoungins]

Recent U.S. Model 3 orderers are being told to expect their cars in about two months.  This is a supply restriction, not a demand restriction.

Over 7k cars in inventory on dec 31. And lots have fulled up a lot since then. How does that square with supply restriction?

[NeilT]

So what is your price target on TSLA? Fun fact, in Q4 the group with the highest price target, sold 45% of their shares...

From my POV, it's irrelevant.  So long as Tesla continues to make a profit whilst paying back debt and not requiring to refinance in order to continue manufacturing, then the share price is not relevant to Tesla.

Whether it is relevant to Musk personally is another thing.  However it us unlikely that we'll see Tesla shares fall to their last lowest point so long as they continue to make a profit and grow vehicle manufacturing per week and also continue to grow sales world wide.

The low, last year, was based on an expectation that Tesla would continue making a loss till Q2 2019, run out of operating cash and have to go back to the market for refinancing.  That expectation has been changed. The share price reflects it.  The longer this goes on, Tesla in profit will become the norm. Then the share price will respond to how much profit Tesla makes or any future losses it makes.

Don't look too hard for Tesla to make a loss though.  It is emerging from Start-Up status to fully fledged corporation status and is, still, the leader in the market.

[Sigmetnow]

Recent U.S. Model 3 orderers are being told to expect their cars in about two months.  This is a supply restriction, not a demand restriction.

Over 7k cars in inventory on dec 31. And lots have fulled up a lot since then. How does that square with supply restriction?

Dragging out the "full parking lots prove there's not enough demand" lie, I see.  Which alternates with the “empty parking lots prove there's not enough production" lie.  Or “Tesla is hiding unsold cars in people’s garages.”

This week many Tesla shortsellers are talking about Tesla production slowdowns. Really? This is what I saw this morning:

https://twitter.com/andreibulu/status/1088584119376695296
20-sec Tesla parking lot drive-by video at the link.  Too many cars — and car transporters — to count!

[GoSouthYoungins]

So what is your price target on TSLA? Fun fact, in Q4 the group with the highest price target, sold 45% of their shares...

From my POV, it's irrelevant.  So long as Tesla continues to make a profit whilst paying back debt and not requiring to refinance in order to continue manufacturing, then the share price is not relevant to Tesla.

Whether it is relevant to Musk personally is another thing.  However it us unlikely that we'll see Tesla shares fall to their last lowest point so long as they continue to make a profit and grow vehicle manufacturing per week and also continue to grow sales world wide.

The low, last year, was based on an expectation that Tesla would continue making a loss till Q2 2019, run out of operating cash and have to go back to the market for refinancing.  That expectation has been changed. The share price reflects it.  The longer this goes on, Tesla in profit will become the norm. Then the share price will respond to how much profit Tesla makes or any future losses it makes.

Don't look too hard for Tesla to make a loss though.  It is emerging from Start-Up status to fully fledged corporation status and is, still, the leader in the market.

The only way Tesla can turn a profit is by drastically under spending in terms of service and capex. And that can't last very long. Musk companies never have and never will turn an annual profit.

[GoSouthYoungins]

Recent U.S. Model 3 orderers are being told to expect their cars in about two months.  This is a supply restriction, not a demand restriction.

Over 7k cars in inventory on dec 31. And lots have fulled up a lot since then. How does that square with supply restriction?

Dragging out the "full parking lots prove there's not enough demand" lie, I see.  Which alternates with the “empty parking lots prove there's not enough production" lie.  Or “Tesla is hiding unsold cars in people’s garages.”

I bet that 7k number from Tesla IR is just from internal saboteurs. 

[Sigmetnow]

The “Parking Lot Truthers” reports did nothing to help predict Q3 or Q4 financials. Now that most cars are headed overseas, their efforts are even less useful for judging Q1.  At least the pro-Tesla folks closely watching the vehicle carrier boat activity and customer’s order updates admit it is mostly for entertainment value.

(GLOVIS Captain is about to enter the English Channel!  And GLOVIS Cosmos is passing between the Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico on her way to Zeebrugge.)

——-

Alex (@alex_avoigt) 2/3/19, 9:26 AM
A 1st @Tesla M3 VIN has been given in Europe to someone in Luxembourg.
Delivery date February 16th, his/her P3D is on the Cosmo.
From CG1997: "(...) mein P3D ist auf der Cosmo. Abholung ist für den 16 Februar geplant, kann sich aber noch verschieben. VIN: 223008 (...)"

https://twitter.com/alex_avoigt/status/1092066869203386371
From CG1997: "(...) My P3D is at Cosmo. Pickup is scheduled for February 16, but may yet shift. VIN: 223008 (...)"
   

ValueAnalyst (@ValueAnalyst1) 2/3/19, 2:24 PM
6 weeks.
International VIN registration --> one week in production through quality control --> four weeks on the boat --> few days at delivery center --> customer pickup
And this is with a one-week delay.

https://twitter.com/valueanalyst1/status/1092141721637580800

————
Tesla China stores are working through the Lunar New Year:

Vincent (@vincent13031925) 2/3/19, 8:43 AM
Tesla official Weibo announced:
@Tesla China Experience Centers will be open as usual between Lunar New Year.
Also Model 3 is now available for test drive.
$TSLA #Tesla #China #TeslaChina

https://twitter.com/vincent13031925/status/1092056100113854464

 —— And just for fun:  A cardboard stand-in of Elon Musk is used to show approval of this tiny EV in the D.R.:

Marc Bloomquist (@m40dotcom) 2/3/19, 8:52 AM
 And from Dominican Republic where I’ve yet to see an EV until this in a mall. Autiny Electric Vehicles. Can’t tell where they’re based outta but the new smart car sized car is their M1. Logo/color looks familiar, and who that inside who seems to approve of it the mission?

https://twitter.com/m40dotcom/status/1092058137593565186
Another photo at the link.

[GoSouthYoungins]

For all y'all who think that Tesla's Q3 and Q4 reporting proves something, there has never been a company this large that is so obviously cooking the books. For many reasons. But most telling and now absurd is the historic turnover of finance execs.

Notably, the Chief Accounting Officer quit last year. Tesla hired a new one a few months later. He quit almost immediately without signing off on anything and leaving approx $10m on the table. Then Telsa gave up on retaining a CAO and said the duties would pass to the CFO. A few days ago, at the very end of the quarterly call (and without fielding further questions), they drop the bomb that the CFO is leaving. The replacement is announced: some 34 year old with very little experience who had just been promoted to Finance VP the previous month.

<This is my last snip, next one and you're on moderation again; N.> I'll just suggest that if you think this makes sense for a $50b company that isn't cooking the books, you severely lack a healthy amount of skepticism.

[GoSouthYoungins]

Btw, this is very off topic, but I don't care:

I'm almost 3 years sober, and even more importantly, almost 3 days off moderation.

I don't know if N. gives out coins, but it would be a good idea to help keep those of us with "the disease" stay off of moderation/drugs/booze.

(In all seriousness. Tesla bulls, PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE actually engage with me about this nonsense. I grow, I herd, I build, I write, and I trade. Betting on the future of companies is mildly important to my life. It is helpful to converse with those who disagree with me. BUT only if they genuinely engage. I am not against innovation that aids the ability for humans to live nice yet green lives...I just happen to not think that Tesla doesn't fit the bill or is honest about what they are doing.)

[b_lumenkraft]

That's great GoSouthYoungins. Well done.

[oren]

Recent U.S. Model 3 orderers are being told to expect their cars in about two months.  This is a supply restriction, not a demand restriction.

Over 7k cars in inventory on dec 31. And lots have fulled up a lot since then. How does that square with supply restriction?

Dec 31st came and went a month ago. Why do you assume these cars haven't been sold yet?
BTW - I thought you didn't believe the books.

[oren]

The only way Tesla can turn a profit is by drastically under spending in terms of service and capex. And that can't last very long. Musk companies never have and never will turn an annual profit.

You asked sincerely to be engaged so I am making an experimental effort.
What is your basis for such a statement?
I realize you dislike the man and all he stands for and think he's a serial liar and conman, but the underlined/bolded is a very strong assumption even with these beliefs. I find it hard to take you seriously when you make such statements.

[NeilT]

For all y'all who think that Tesla's Q3 and Q4 reporting proves something, there has never been a company this large that is so obviously cooking the books. For many reasons. But most telling and now absurd is the historic turnover of finance execs.

You are aware of SOx?

Also, without proof, I would be extremely careful about that statement.  It runs very close to Libel.  You might actually want to check the figures in the Enron scandal.  The lawsuit raised after the stock fell to $1 was for $40bn, not for $40 Million.

In order for what you say to be true, Tesla and the board, would have to be criminally liable for an illegal act punishable with quite some time in Jail.   The SOx Auditors would have to be complicit and the Government oversight and audit would also have to be complicit.

I spent the first half of 2018 delivering SOx controls for a global manufacturing company.  SOx controls need to be run and they need to be evidenced.  One of the evidences is a full screen print showing the date and time of the actual operation.  It is that level of Anal.

If you think a full SOx review was not carried out, post the Musk tweet and the SEC and criminal investigations of 2018, think again.  That would have been the very first place they went.

Before Enron and WorldCom you could have said things like this with the expectation that it would be taken as a simple expression of your distrust of the company and its board.

Personally, I would be extremely careful when making these accusations.

[Neven]

I agree, Neil, but don't you find it somewhat strange that so many financial people leave?

[GoSouthYoungins]

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/04/tesla-to-but-maxwell-technologies-for-4point75-a-share.html

This is really smart business by Tesla (for real). Use absurdly overvalued stock to acquire a company with promising tech. This is the sort of thing that will help them avoid liquidation.

The tech probably wont pan out. It is all probably just a distraction (albeit one with little to no downside for Tesla). It is very similar to when SolarCity bought Silevo.

[GoSouthYoungins]

For all y'all who think that Tesla's Q3 and Q4 reporting proves something, there has never been a company this large that is so obviously cooking the books. For many reasons. But most telling and now absurd is the historic turnover of finance execs.

You are aware of SOx?

Also, without proof, I would be extremely careful about that statement.  It runs very close to Libel.  You might actually want to check the figures in the Enron scandal.  The lawsuit raised after the stock fell to $1 was for $40bn, not for $40 Million.

In order for what you say to be true, Tesla and the board, would have to be criminally liable for an illegal act punishable with quite some time in Jail.   The SOx Auditors would have to be complicit and the Government oversight and audit would also have to be complicit.

I spent the first half of 2018 delivering SOx controls for a global manufacturing company.  SOx controls need to be run and they need to be evidenced.  One of the evidences is a full screen print showing the date and time of the actual operation.  It is that level of Anal.

If you think a full SOx review was not carried out, post the Musk tweet and the SEC and criminal investigations of 2018, think again.  That would have been the very first place they went.

Before Enron and WorldCom you could have said things like this with the expectation that it would be taken as a simple expression of your distrust of the company and its board.

Personally, I would be extremely careful when making these accusations.

Where to begin? Are you actually suggesting it is no longer possible to cook the books? There are an infinite number of ways to do it.

Do you have any evidence that the "criminal investigations of 2018" are over? I'm pretty sure they are ongoing.

Are you aware that SolarCity is currently in court over allegations that they made up all sorts of fake sales numbers and then fired the employees who complained about it?

The entire purchase of SolarCity was criminal. Based on fake sales numbers and a totally fake solar roof tile product. SolarCity was going to go bankrupt. It was 100% a bailout. A highly fraudulent bailout.

Musk has blatant disregard for honesty and for the law. Anyone who can't see that after the whole fake "take Tesla private" nonsense is a true-believer and nothing will persuade them. I imagine when Tesla does go bankrupt, the true-believers will blame short sellers.

[GoSouthYoungins]

I agree, Neil, but don't you find it somewhat strange that so many financial people leave?

That is only half of it. The even more telling half is that Tesla can't find a credible/experienced person to serve as CAO or CFO.

[Sigmetnow]

... I am not against innovation that aids the ability for humans to live nice yet green lives...I just happen to not think that Tesla doesn't fit the bill or is honest about what they are doing.)

So, to your mind, what company does fit the bill?  Who, or which one, has done more than Tesla to “honestly” wean individuals, companies, utilities, even whole islands, off of fossil fuels?

[zizek]

Wide scale fraud unlikely. Hmmmm. I find that hilarious since Ellison, Tesla's newest board member, was a significant investor in theranos.

I can't wait till this tech bubble crashes. afterwards Democrats will likely take control of Washington, and begin a "green new deal" (which will be nothing like AOC proposes). Massive amounts of public cash and loans will be funneled into the pockets of silicon valley execs so they can continue their grift, but this time"green". Desperation, naivety, and just pure stupidity will pave the way for the populace to blindly accept any and all solutions to the crisis.
Climate change ain't so bad now and everybody has already thrown out cricical thought. I can't wait to see how easy it'll be for corporations to rob us once we get desperate.

The green tech bubble will probably be the last bubble America will face, for better or worse

[GoSouthYoungins]

The only way Tesla can turn a profit is by drastically under spending in terms of service and capex. And that can't last very long. Musk companies never have and never will turn an annual profit.

You asked sincerely to be engaged so I am making an experimental effort.
What is your basis for such a statement?
I realize you dislike the man and all he stands for and think he's a serial liar and conman, but the underlined/bolded is a very strong assumption even with these beliefs. I find it hard to take you seriously when you make such statements.

The first half of my statement is a simple fact. At zip2 and PayPal Musk was either not permitted to run the companies or promptly ousted. SpaceX has been around 16 years and has never made an annual profit. For a while they pretended like they did, but it was quickly discovered that they were counting prepayment as the current years revenue, which is just a ponzi tactic not a real profit. Musk has been running Tesla for 14 years with no annual profits. (FYI, 15 year old companies are not "start ups".) Musk started SolarCity with his cousins and for the 10 years it operated, ZERO profits. Boring Company, 2 years. Neuralink, 2 years. Add it all up, over 40 company years with NOT A SINGLE ANNUAL PROFIT!

As for why they never will: every concept is somewhere between fanciful and absurd. Tunnels for cars tod t avoiraffic. Space ships to colonize Mars. Cyborgs. Solar panel leasing for too cheap. Performance electric cars for too cheap.

"THE DEMAND IS INSANELY HIGH, THE ONLY INHIBITOR IS PRICE. PEOPLE JUST LITERALLY DONT HAVE ENOUGH MONEY IN THEIR BANK ACCOUNTS." Does that sound like the business acumen of a person who can make profitable company?

[b_lumenkraft]

Hey Zizek,

the green revolution is not dependent on smartphones and social media. Silicon Valey is out. This is good for the producer of solar panels, windmills, power to gas, EVs, the worker who install the panels on the rooftop, etc.

In Germany, we have the positive effect that big energy is losing ground. The market is decentralizing. Farmers and cities are the main producer of renewable energy and therefore the profiteers.

[b_lumenkraft]

As for why they never will: every concept is somewhere between fanciful and absurd. Tunnels for cars tod t avoiraffic. Space ships to colonize Mars. Cyborgs. Solar panel leasing for too cheap. Performance electric cars for too cheap.

Hey GoSouthYoungins,

do you think visionary thinking is a bad thing in general?

[GoSouthYoungins]

... I am not against innovation that aids the ability for humans to live nice yet green lives...I just happen to not think that Tesla doesn't fit the bill or is honest about what they are doing.)

So, to your mind, what company does fit the bill?  Who, or which one, has done more than Tesla to “honestly” wean individuals, companies, utilities, even whole islands, off of fossil fuels?

Beyond Meat, Impossible Foods, Giant Manufacturing, Hero Cycles, Mesta Board, World Centric, Tipa. Any company involved with permaculture or carbon negative farming or earthen construction.

CARS ARE NOT GREEN. Period.

[GoSouthYoungins]

As for why they never will: every concept is somewhere between fanciful and absurd. Tunnels for cars tod t avoiraffic. Space ships to colonize Mars. Cyborgs. Solar panel leasing for too cheap. Performance electric cars for too cheap.

Hey GoSouthYoungins,

do you think visionary thinking is a bad thing in general?

No. Visionary thinking in general is good. The problem is if you pretend like your dreams are going to turn into reality without serious substance behind it.  It is not like nobody had considered all the Muskian ideas before. But everyone else realized there were significant and possibly insurmountable obstacles. Musk is just a top notch con artist. It's maddening that he sucks in so much green/sustainable energy from people because nothing will come of it.

[zizek]

Hey Zizek,

the green revolution is not dependent on smartphones and social media. Silicon Valey is out. This is good for the producer of solar panels, windmills, power to gas, EVs, the worker who install the panels on the rooftop, etc.

In Germany, we have the positive effect that big energy is losing ground. The market is decentralizing. Farmers and cities are the main producer of renewable energy and therefore the profiteers.

I appreciate your optimism. Germany and other European countries have shown great promise in their fight against climate change.

But you must have not read the news lately. The plutocratic nations are not doing so well. Donald Trump is the president of the most powerful nation in the world. The heart of the global financial system, the UK, is about to willingly implode its own economy due to..... reasons.  The largest nation in Latin America has recently voted in an outright fascist, Bolsanaro, who is now an ally with America and other western nations in the destruction & conquest of Venezuela and her oil.

You are suggesting that that Silicon Valley is on the out? I don't think so. We were dumb enough allow another tech bubble after the dotcom crash, like any other economic crises, we are dumb enough to let it happen again. Besides, you are asking us to make a smart decision, you give us way to much credit.

You are trying to convince me that America will make the sensible choice to challenge climate change. You will not get very far. Currently, American's climate change rallying point is behind Elon Musk. A billionaire who owns multiple extravagant properties and exclusively flies on a private jet. A man who started his fortune through his family's gem mine in apartheid Africa. On many different accounts, Elon Musk has displayed many despicable qualities (although truly american in their nature) which include sexism, racism, anti-labor, anti-public-transport, elitism, egotism, and of course his dishonesty. His behavior aside, his mission to combat climate change is to "have an EV in every driveway", which to me doesn't sound right, but apparently it's got this forum convinced.

The rich are salivating at the though of climate change. An entire untapped market to defraud, public coffers to loot, naive consumers to grift. It will all happen again.

[b_lumenkraft]

I appreciate your optimism.

Thank you, under the optimists, i am the pessimist.

You are suggesting that that Silicon Valley is on the out?

No, not in general. I only think they will not be needed for a green revolution.

You are trying to convince me that America will make the sensible choice to challenge climate change.

Yes, it looks dark these days. I am aware indeed. And i don't want to convince you of anything. Only showing alternatives, positive narratives. Isn't it that what we need these days?

You know, even Europe is way behind in climate action even though there is a broader awareness.

Here my take on Musk:
I get why people hate him. I don't like him so much myself. But when this world needs anything, than visionaries that bring people behind them. Try things, fail with things and try again! Musk is one of them. Without him no Daimler nor VW nor GM manager would even think of producing EVs that's for sure. It needed someone who showed the world EVs are possible. Time will not remember him as a moron he might be.

[Zythryn]

I agree, Neil, but don't you find it somewhat strange that so many financial people leave?

While not Neil, I’d like to throw in my two cents.
The CFO left, Tesla hired a new one.
The new one, for whatever reason, found quickly that they didn’t want the job, and left.
The original CFO returned to help out until a new person could be found to take on those duties.  This time, hopefully, Tesla can take more time to insure the next CFO will be a good fit.

Now, Tesla has announced they found such a person, and that the original CFO is staying on for a time to help ensure a smooth transition to the new guy.

This could be a sign of funny business as GSY insists.  Or it could simply be that the first replacement was a mistake and Tesla is being much more careful this time (which is my opinion).

Unusual, perhaps, but nothing more.

[zizek]

It is imperative that we recognize that there are wrong way and right ways to combat climate change. Billions of tax paying and private funds are being poured into EVs, especially Tesla and Elon Musk's little side projects. This money could be put towards public transportation, but instead, we get bizarre projects where he wants people to drive cars in underground tunnels, and not only that has gone on record opposing public transport.  This is a man who flies on a private jet. The world does not have the capacity for more cars. We need to move away from the suburban lifestyle. And Elon Musk is not offering an alternative to excessive consumption, but rather a very expensive replacement to a single problem that exists within a much bigger picture.