Tesla glory/failure

[NeilT]

When CyberTruck gets down to $60k and with possible low interest finance, it will fly out the door.

The problem, I am sure, for CT today, is production capacity.  Not demand.  Once they have capacity at the level they need the prices will fall and the range for sale will broaden.  Which will only sell even more of them.

Tesla has been doing this for a while now.  Also very good thing to remember.  Tesla wrote its own MES software for managing demand to production.  With their direct sales and their MES software they know on a weekly basis exactly what demand is, how it relates to production and if they need to do anything about it.

I've been quietly watching this develop.  It reminds me very much of the way the Model Y rolled out at the outset.  Once it reached volume it just kept increasing and increasing until each factory was maxed out.  Texas and Berlin, also, just keep increasing in volume.

I predict those who want a demise of Tesla, Musk and the CT are going to be disappointed.  All over again.

[John_the_Younger]

Tesla’s Full Self-Driving v12.5 rollout on HW3 failed, what happens next?

From the electrik article (from 5 days ago):

Tesla’s rollout of Full Self-Driving v12.5 has failed so far, and owners want to know what happens next?

In 2016, Elon Musk announced that all future Tesla vehicles would come equipped with the necessary hardware for self-driving capabilities, even specifying “level 5 self-driving,” which implies the ability to operate autonomously under any conditions. However, shortly after, Musk acknowledged that Tesla might require more onboard computing power than initially thought, leading to the introduction of Hardware 3 (HW3).

Musk assured that HW3 would enable full self-driving (FSD) capabilities, promising retrofits for earlier models that had purchased the FSD package. Following this, Tesla introduced Hardware 4 (HW4), a more advanced onboard computer system, but did not offer retrofits for older models with HW3, maintaining that HW3 was sufficient for achieving self-driving through software updates.
...
[About August 1st] Musk said that it would take ten days to adapt v12.5 to HW3.

... about two weeks after Musk’s “10 days” had passed, we reported that Tesla started to push v12.5 to HW3 vehicles.
...  now three weeks later, Tesla has yet to push v12.5 to the vast majority of FSD vehicles with HW3. Tesla appears to only have pushed v12.5.1.5 to some Tesla HW3 owners and it is now moving HW4 cars to v12.5.2.

Social media and Tesla forums are full of Tesla HW3 owners asking why they haven’t released a new update since v12.3.6 earlier this year despite Musk’s comments.

In its “AI roadmap” released last week, Tesla now claims that HW3 will get the same release as HW4 starting with v12.5.2 this month.

However, v12.5.2 is already in the consumer fleet for HW4 cars and v12.5.3 is already being tested in the beta fleet.

Elsewhere I see videos showing v12.5 problems in hardware 3 (HW3) vehicles. (I still have 12.3.6.)

So, I wonder, will a viable v12.5 update be made? Even if so, will full Self Driving ever be possible for a HW3 vehicle?  If not, will there be a hardware update "recall" for those who purchased FSD on a HW3 vehicle?  If not possible, will Tesla have to buy back my car (cost plus interest?)

We're at, I think, a glory/failure juncture... What do you think?

[gerontocrat]

EV registrations surged 18% in July, boosted by Tesla Cybertruck and new models
https://www.cbtnews.com/ev-registrations-surged-18-in-july-boosted-by-tesla-cybertruck-and-new-models/

What crap reporting

surged by 18% over what? June 24? July 23?

In July 2024
- sales of pure BEVs increased by 3.2% over June 24 & 2.5% over July 23
- sales of PHEVs increased by 1.5% over June 24 & decreased by 2.2% over July 23
- sales of HEVs which are fossil fuel powered vehicles, decreased by 2.6% over June 24 & increased by 27.3% over July 23
- sales of ICEVs decreased by 3.5% over June 24 & 5.1% over July 23

In other words that 18% was all about HEVs, which are basically ICEVs with added electric motors. HEV sales are a roadblock in the transportation electric transition.

[Sigmetnow]

In absolute terms, none of these electric truck sales are large numbers, so I don't think the Cybertruck can take a victory lap yet.  It will be interesting to see how this continues to play out with the Cybertruck's well-documented quality issues.

The Cybertruck is already outselling several popular ICE truck models, even at the Foundation series’ $100k price tag.

It’s outsold the Nissan Titan and will outsell the Gladiator too.
Next year it will likely exceed the Toyota Tundra.

Every new vehicle has “quality issues” at the start of production; it’s especially understandable for one as radically different as the cybertruck.  It hasn’t diminished demand for the Tesla product.  And a significant number of CT buyers say they would never have bought an ordinary pickup, so the CT market extends well beyond the usual pickup customer base.

[Sigmetnow]

surged by 18% over what? June 24? July 23?

Well, some EVs’ sales surged.

Cadillac Lyriq EV sales, for example, surged 465% in the second quarter, tallying 13,000 vehicles year to date.

Rivian sales were up 33% to 27,378 vehicles through the second quarter, among several examples of rising EV brands in the U.S.

Tesla delivered 5,175 Cybertrucks in July, up 61% vs June, according to S&P Global Mobility.

[Sigmetnow]

Tesla’s Full Self-Driving v12.5 rollout on HW3 failed, what happens next?
…
Elsewhere I see videos showing v12.5 problems in hardware 3 (HW3) vehicles. (I still have 12.3.6.)

So, I wonder, will a viable v12.5 update be made? Even if so, will full Self Driving ever be possible for a HW3 vehicle?  If not, will there be a hardware update "recall" for those who purchased FSD on a HW3 vehicle?  If not possible, will Tesla have to buy back my car (cost plus interest?)

We're at, I think, a glory/failure juncture... What do you think?

I think, given the very good reviews by expert FSD testers like Whole Mars and AI Driver running 12.5 on their HW3 cars, and the statements from Tesla that they are still working on optimizing the code, that success is in the offing.

Sept 6, 2024

Whole Mars Catalog
They are running the larger model on HW3 as well now. 
As detailed by Ashok, improvements have been made to the compiler and runtime to allow for some operations AI4 has hardware accelerated to be emulated on AI3 via a GPU kernel

AI DRIVR
if that’s true the progress has been insanely fast! seems like just a week or two ago Ashok said he “thinks” they can get the larger model running on AI3 in the “future”, didn’t expect it this fast lol

Whole Mars Catalog
The model started training and they started working on the HW3 optimizations over 69 days ago.
It has been 5 weeks since it was launched on hardware 4
Faster than expected, but not that fast overall

Elon Musk
We are focusing on just Model Y with HW4 for the initial release. Make sure that works well, then broaden.
This has the 5X increase in parameters.
HW3 would run the same parameter count, but requires extra work to optimize the code.

https://x.com/wholemarsblog/status/1832221779747885166

[John_the_Younger]

Glad to hear

[oren]

So, I wonder, will a viable v12.5 update be made? Even if so, will full Self Driving ever be possible for a HW3 vehicle?  If not, will there be a hardware update "recall" for those who purchased FSD on a HW3 vehicle?  If not possible, will Tesla have to buy back my car (cost plus interest?)

We're at, I think, a glory/failure juncture... What do you think?

Will full Self Driving ever be possible for a HW3 vehicle? I expect No. If it turns out to be possible on HW4 I will be positively surprised. HW3? I see no chance of that.
If not, will there be a hardware update "recall" for those who purchased FSD on a HW3 vehicle? Maybe, though probably not.
If not possible, will Tesla have to buy back my car (cost plus interest?) No

[Sigmetnow]

—- The Tesla semi has arrived in Europe to be exhibited at the IAA Transportation event in Hanover, Germany -—
As the leading platform for buses, logistics, commercial vehicles and the transport sector, IAA TRANSPORTATION 2024 will take place from September 17th to 22nd, 2024 at the Messegelände exhibition center in Hanover.
The first opportunity for us Europeans to see this beautiful truck in person!
9/15/24, https://x.com/estherrebers/status/1835215030570103164
3 pics at the link.
 
—-
Informative and slickly edited 2 min Tesla vid, with various clips from their display, and comments by Tesla's head of Semi engineering, @danWpriestley:
9/17/24, ➡️ https://x.com/teslaeurope/status/1836147355864662435

Tesla Semi will be street legal in Europe and will be compatible with European trailers.
 

Jaan of the EV Universe ⚡
 
I learned a few new things checking out the very first Tesla Semi in Europe today.
A thread 🧵:
1. Tesla has already designed the Semi with sleeper cab in mind per the team, they're "keeping the space" for it with a metal frame in place
  —
2. The Tesla Semi has been designed 'international' from  start, so they had to change very little for Europe entry (only minor details like wheel covers etc). …

9/16/24, ➡️ https://x.com/theevuniverse/status/1835799929870041566
30 sec. Metal frame is visible at the top, behind the “back wall” of the cabin.

   —-
Tesla's head of Semi engineering, @danWpriestley, says Tesla Semi trucks have driven over 7.5 million miles, up from 3.5 million in May. That's a fleet average of over 33,000 miles per day.
There's even a Semi that has driven more than 400,000 real-world kilometers in less than 18 months, all at the max gross weight limit.
➡️  https://x.com/ajtourville/status/1836085795288932524
45 sec.

   —-
Here is the full keynote speech of the Tesla Semi program lead @danWpriestley which just took place in the IAA in Hannover Germany.
9/17/24, ➡️ https://x.com/theevuniverse/status/1836068971990102429
14 min.
 
“Tesla has been able to replace all their diesel trucking with Tesla Semis at a lower operating cost and without compromising schedules and without compromising payload. Efficiency is key.”
 
Charge times too long?  We have successfully demonstrated and deployed megawatt charging in the field.  It is safe, reliable, and allows the one for one replacement of diesel trucks.
 
We’re approaching 100kWh per 100 km.  [The PepsiCo rep says later that for city/local and limited regional use, “Over about 2 years, we’ve consistently seen 0.8 kWh/kilometer efficiency.  Heavy duty use: 1kWh/km efficiency.”]
When we come back with a high volume version of this truck, that number will continue to improve.
 
Fleet is currently showing 95% up-time — including scheduled as well as unschedule maintenance. Vertical integration means getting truck back to the customer fast. Less than 24 hours in most cases, in the current fleet.
 
We encourage other E-truck makers to build on a dedicated EV platform.  Trying for multiple power train options just introduces drag.
 
How to bring it to scale:  We’re bringing more trucks to PepsiCo throughout this year.  And new customers, full ownership, this year in North America.
 
High volume: building factory in Nevada capable of more than 50,000 units/year.  Scale production through 2026. Europe is next market after North America.  Scale brings lower cost, [quicker payback] for customers.
 
Did a test of 800 km drive with no charging, over the Grapevine/Tejon pass.  We know Europe has lots of grades, too.  We intend to demonstrate Brenner Pass, and others.  We’re confident because we do the grueling Donner Pass, multiple times a day.  Different weather conditions, different pitches.  [See Graph ⬇️ — Donner is the highest of the three.]  In North America, we climb heavy grades in high heat, 45°C to Nevada.  In Alaska, high grades at -20°C.  We park it outside to -40°C. 

====
 
Here is today's full presentation from Tesla's head of Semi engineering, Dan Priestley, and Electrification Program Manager at PepsiCo, Dejan Antunovic.  They talk about PepsiCo’s Tesla Semi U.S. case study.
9/18/24, ➡️ https://x.com/sawyermerritt/status/1836363159524749547
 25 min
 
TCO - total cost of operation — is a big factor for Tesla and PepsiCo.
 
PepsiCo has 3 different fleets. Pepsi beverage: Class A semi trucks, hauling beverages, locally, regionally and long-haul.
- Delivery fleet: 150km or less/day. Great use case. Urban city streets.  Truck has a fantastic turning radius.
- Transport regional long-haul. “Slip-seat” schedule (driver does a shift, maybe 800 km, return to depot, 30-45 min pause, then another driver takes the same truck on another route.)  This is with a heavy payload. “Run on Less” testing last year showed we run at a combined weight of 35 tons.
- Frito Lay fleet: less than half the weight of beverages, but we’ve seen it can replicate diesel experience.
 
The standard range, 500-km range trucks will be a good fit for the Pepsi fleet.
Their highest mileage trucks are in their beverage transport division.  Heavy, long distance, then delivery.
 
I spoke with a driver who drove diesel trucks for 30 years.  He said, “I don’t want to go back to diesel.  This is what I want to drive.”  And that’s what most drivers say.
 
Depot charging:
We thought it would take about 1.5 years to launch these megawatt-scale projects for electrification.  That’s the bare minimum, honestly.  More like 3 years, for us.  In some cases it’s like building a new plant or warehouse.  We install our own megawatt charging today. Mainly for the long haul slip-seat work.

===
 
In Europe we believe there will be more reliance on publicly available charging, especially given depots with limited space, and trucks that are not domiciling on site. Charger deployment is a bit more challenging due to the many different utilities, especially the many small ones.  We’re looking how to expedite the process, and working for compatibility with other networks that are coming online in Europe.

===
 
26 newly built Tesla Semis next to Giga Nevada.
9/5/24, https://x.com/sawyermerritt/status/1831807507947548758
⬇️

[Sigmetnow]

Elon Musk provided a small update on Tesla’s Dojo supercomputer.
 
“We should have Dojo 2 in volume production by the end of next year (2025). That will be comparable to a NVIDIA B200 type system. I have some improved confidence in Dojo, but we won’t really know how good it is until version 3. Usually it takes three major iterations on a technology for it to be excellent and we’ll only have the second major iteration next year. The third iteration maybe late 2026.”
 
Video via @allinsummit: x.com/i/broadcasts/1…
 
9/9/24, ➡️ https://x.com/sawyermerritt/status/1833308736116429073
2 min.

[NeilT]

ALEX @ajtourville

PepsiCo says it currently has 89
@Tesla
 Semis in its fleet, so far.

Not 35 or 39 but 89.  So they have been quietly taking delivery of their trucks and nobody has been talking about it.

[Sigmetnow]

ALEX @ajtourville

PepsiCo says it currently has 89
@Tesla
 Semis in its fleet, so far.

Not 35 or 39 but 89.  So they have been quietly taking delivery of their trucks and nobody has been talking about it.

Yes.  From my notes on the PepsiCo talk:

PepsiCo says they have 3 depots in CA:
15 trucks in Modesto, northern CA
Sacramento, beverages, 18 short haul, and 3 long haul more regional.
Now Fresno, 50 trucks. 45 are city/local.  5 are more regional/long haul.
Over about 2 years, we’ve consistently seen 0.8 kWh/kilometer efficiency.  Heavy duty: 1kWh per km efficiency. 
All have depot charging.

And they will be taking deliveries of more Semis this year.

[nadir]

When CyberTruck gets down to $60k and with possible low interest finance, it will fly out the door.

The problem, I am sure, for CT today, is production capacity.  Not demand.  Once they have capacity at the level they need the prices will fall and the range for sale will broaden.  Which will only sell even more of them.

Tesla has been doing this for a while now.  Also very good thing to remember.  Tesla wrote its own MES software for managing demand to production.  With their direct sales and their MES software they know on a weekly basis exactly what demand is, how it relates to production and if they need to do anything about it.

I've been quietly watching this develop.  It reminds me very much of the way the Model Y rolled out at the outset.  Once it reached volume it just kept increasing and increasing until each factory was maxed out.  Texas and Berlin, also, just keep increasing in volume.

I predict those who want a demise of Tesla, Musk and the CT are going to be disappointed.  All over again.

Please please. The CT is nothing. Aren’t you the guy of the big schemes and the great trillionaire prospects?

60 k ? Is it gonna last 10 miles without breaking apart?

[nadir]

ALEX @ajtourville

PepsiCo says it currently has 89
@Tesla
 Semis in its fleet, so far.

Not 35 or 39 but 89.  So they have been quietly taking delivery of their trucks and nobody has been talking about it.

Oh wow. 89. Wow. Wow.

[nadir]

ALEX @ajtourville

PepsiCo says it currently has 89
@Tesla
 Semis in its fleet, so far.

Not 35 or 39 but 89.  So they have been quietly taking delivery of their trucks and nobody has been talking about it.

Yes.  From my notes on the PepsiCo talk:

PepsiCo says they have 3 depots in CA:
15 trucks in Modesto, northern CA
Sacramento, beverages, 18 short haul, and 3 long haul more regional.
Now Fresno, 50 trucks. 45 are city/local.  5 are more regional/long haul.
Over about 2 years, we’ve consistently seen 0.8 kWh/kilometer efficiency.  Heavy duty: 1kWh per km efficiency. 
All have depot charging.

And they will be taking deliveries of more Semis this year.

A dozen here and a dozen there.

GTFO. In Europe that thing is going to sell as well as in the US. Nada. Except for a couple of companies wanting to advertise some green-washing (and grabbing some public handouts in the way…).

[gerontocrat]

PepsiCo says they have 3 depots in CA:
15 trucks in Modesto, northern CA
Sacramento, beverages, 18 short haul, and 3 long haul more regional.
Now Fresno, 50 trucks. 45 are city/local.  5 are more regional/long haul.
Over about 2 years, we’ve consistently seen 0.8 kWh/kilometer efficiency.  Heavy duty: 1kWh per km efficiency. 
All have depot charging.

And they will be taking deliveries of more Semis this year.

A dozen here and a dozen there.

GTFO. In Europe that thing is going to sell as well as in the US. Nada. Except for a couple of companies wanting to advertise some green-washing (and grabbing some public handouts in the way…).

It seems that costco and walmart may have started pilot programs to evaluate the semi.
Will, they, like pepsico, have their own superchargers located at strategic depots powered by their own renewable energy? For large companies seems the most cost-efficient solution.
Maybe another dozen or three will be seen on the road? 

But the main news is that since the July groundbreaking, Tesla has spent some real money on construction of the semi factory in Nevada.
On the other hand the vague news/rumours is volume production from sometime in 2026.

So lots of time for endless fruitless argumemt.

Europe? the EU only requires a 10% reduction in semitrailer emissions from 2030, though for other trucks and buses the demands are far stricter.But if Tesla shows that for large companies a package that includes the semi, the superchargers and owned renewable energy is significantly cheaper than staying with ICEV semis.......

[oren]

The only interesting question about the Semi is the price point when it finally enters regular production. It's all fine that the trucks work, should anyone expected anything else? But so far Tesla simply couldn't make them profitably for the prices promised by Musk 7 years ago, or anything near those prices.
For 200K the Semi is a bestseller. For $400-500k, I think a major dud.
But all these great Semi news fail to mention anything about the price ( I can't even read all of the spam, so I am assuming here...). As usual with Tesla these days, we will have to wait until something clear comes out of all the talking.

[NeilT]

There is no way with huge inflation and high interest rates over a period of years that a price quoted 7 years ago will still be in play.  Tell me that the OEM's are still selling their trucks at the same price as 7 years ago!

If you take the difference between the OEM semi price and the Tesla Semi price 7 years ago and the OEM semi price today you will find that the Semi will sell at that adjusted difference.  Anything else would be insanity.

The semi story is far from over.  In fact Tesla is still working the cell chemistry and will have to go through several iterations before they are happy with the power to weight ratio's.  Any significant gain in power density through the 4680 cells will make a much larger difference to the Semi than to a personal vehicle.

Cell chemistry can lead to either more weight hauled or more range.

Also the higher volume of 4680 needed by Tesla is still not in place.  They will need hundreds of millions a month in order to feed the increased personal vehicle volumes  storage volumes and semi.

If you are going to have to change the cell production hardware you don't want to scale it to hundreds of millions a month only to have to take it offline and upgrade it.

Lots of plates spinning but still good progress for Tesla.

[John Batteen]

The concept of an electric semi is great.  Whether it's currently economical, and whether Tesla can pull it off, are the questions to me.  Not all trucking is long haul.  For situations that can deal with limited range, if they can be charged by solar panels at the warehouses, it seems like it could save a ton of money.  I don't have much faith in Musk personally, but time will tell.  Even if the Tesla semi doesn't end up being the model that takes off, they are breaking ground here both in terms of technological development and in social acceptance of the idea.

[NeilT]

The concept of an electric semi is great.  Whether it's currently economical, and whether Tesla can pull it off, are the questions to me.  Not all trucking is long haul.  For situations that can deal with limited range, if they can be charged by solar panels at the warehouses, it seems like it could save a ton of money.  I don't have much faith in Musk personally, but time will tell.  Even if the Tesla semi doesn't end up being the model that takes off, they are breaking ground here both in terms of technological development and in social acceptance of the idea.

Saving a ton of money and meeting climate mitigation goals is the name of the game right now. The main issue is the competition only really has a usable range of 200 - 300 miles and not all charge times are fast.

The market is large and there are many in the game.  Tesla being one of the front runners in terms of technology and capability.

Time will tell.

[Sigmetnow]

The concept of an electric semi is great.  Whether it's currently economical, and whether Tesla can pull it off, are the questions to me.  Not all trucking is long haul.  For situations that can deal with limited range, if they can be charged by solar panels at the warehouses, it seems like it could save a ton of money.  I don't have much faith in Musk personally, but time will tell.  Even if the Tesla semi doesn't end up being the model that takes off, they are breaking ground here both in terms of technological development and in social acceptance of the idea.

—- The Tesla semi has arrived in Europe to be exhibited at the IAA Transportation event in Hanover, Germany -—
…
“Tesla has been able to replace all their diesel trucking with Tesla Semis at a lower operating cost and without compromising schedules and without compromising payload. Efficiency is key.”

If you watch the two talks in the IAA post, both Tesla and PepsiCo say they have replaced diesel trucks, one for one, with lower operating cost.  And improved capability.  Short- and long-haul.

[Sigmetnow]

Shanghai just experienced the most powerful typhoon in 75 years!
 
Best wishes for the resilient & resourceful people of Shanghai.
I have asked our Tesla Shanghai team to help anyone in distress to the best of our ability.

9/19/24, 7:34 PM https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1836911713649586398

Shanghai slammed by what China says is the city’s strongest storm in seven decades
 
Shanghai was brought to a standstill on Monday by what authorities say was the strongest typhoon to directly hit the Chinese financial hub in more than seven decades, with flights, trains and highways suspended during a national holiday.
 
Typhoon Bebinca made landfall in an industrial suburb southeast of the metropolis of 25 million people at about 7:30 a.m. local time. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) said it packed top wind speeds of 130 kilometers per hour (80 mph), the equivalent of a Category 1 Atlantic hurricane.
 
The China Meteorological Administration recorded wind speeds of 151 kph (94 mph) near the typhoon’s eye when it made landfall, and state media described it as the strongest storm to hit Shanghai since 1949.
 
The administration on Monday issued a red typhoon warning, its most severe alert, warning of gale force winds, heavy rainfall and coastal floods in large swathes of eastern China. …

https://www.cnn.com/2024/09/15/weather/china-shanghai-typhoon-bebinca-intl-hnk

[John_the_Younger]

Typhoon Bebinca made landfall in an industrial suburb southeast of the metropolis [of Shanghia]

So, where is the Tesla site in relation to this location?  How was Tesla affected?

[Sigmetnow]

Typhoon Bebinca made landfall in an industrial suburb southeast of the metropolis [of Shanghia]

So, where is the Tesla site in relation to this location?  How was Tesla affected?

⬇️  See maps below.  From: 9/15/24, https://x.com/brian_henderson/status/1835476382610243968

There is no direct information about damage to the Tesla site, but Giga Shanghai is located near major transport links including the Yangshan Deep-Water Port, which Tesla uses for exporting vehicles, and these may have been affected as well.

I posted the news above as another example of Tesla’s habit of helping communities that are suffering from natural disasters, as best it can.

Tesla crews have been seen repairing and bringing back online all the damaged stalls at two separate Supercharger locations in less than 12 hours after the passage of Super Typhoon Yagi.
Pics ➡️ https://x.com/ajtourville/status/1833332417836233190

[vox_mundi]

Russian Troops Receive Musk’s Cybertrucks
https://defence-blog.com/russian-troops-receive-musks-cybertrucks/

Kremlin-backed Chechen President Ramzan Kadyrov has claimed that he provided two modified Tesla Cybertrucks to Russian forces operating in occupied Ukrainian territory.

The futuristic vehicles, armed with machine guns, are reportedly in use by troops participating in what Russia refers to as the “special military operation.”

“Two more Cybertrucks have been sent to the zone of the special military operation,” Kadyrov stated. “... Mobility, convenience, maneuverability—such qualities of the electric vehicle are highly valued here. Remote deactivation has not affected them. The machines are operating normally without failures,” he added.

Video: https://x.com/clashreport/status/1837045901749101042

In August, Kadyrov shared a video of himself driving a Cybertruck around the grounds of his palace, demonstrating the vehicle’s capabilities. Kadyrov said he received the Tesla Cybertrack from Elon Musk.  The truck had been fitted with a machine gun turret, and Kadyrov donned an ammunition belt as he posed in front of the weapon.

Video: https://x.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1824818908500816224

At that time, Kadyrov announced that the vehicle would be sent to the Donbas frontlines and hinted that he anticipated more innovations from Tesla’s founder, Elon Musk, for use in Russia’s war against Ukraine.

[nadir]

But is Tesla doing the military mods? I doubt it.
In any case, bad gift for the Russians. It’s a crappy vehicle. I don’t imagine them charging it 1 hour per two of service.

[Sigmetnow]

Alex. @alex_avoigt

The CyberTruck of Kadyrov (likely a black import) was deactivated by Tesla. 👍😂

Kadyrov, "This is not a nice thing Elon Musk is doing. He makes expensive gifts from the bottom of his heart and then switches them off remotely."

To be clear there was never a CyberTruck present from Elon to Kadyrov.

9/20/24, https://x.com/alex_avoigt/status/1837085129300115622

[Sigmetnow]

October 10, 2024
 
“Join us for We, Robot - our official unveiling of the future of autonomy.”

This will be one for the history books.
9/25/24, 10:06 PM https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1839124331709751451
⬇️ image below.

—-
🔥Tesla China's 3Q is 20% ahead 2Q, a new all-time high quarterly sales record is almost certain now.
 
NEWS: Tesla delivered another strong China sales week with 14.3K deliveries (week 16-22 Sep) implying:
1) YTD Tesla is 8.6K units ahead. (chart 1)
2) Sold 439K BEVs, making it the #2 behind BYD in terms of units and nearly the leader in terms of revenue.
 …
 
9/24/24, https://x.com/alojoh/status/1838458825591988485
More, with graphs, at the link.

  —-
Tesla China says a new Tesla comes out of their Giga Shanghai factory about every 30 seconds. That's an average of nearly 2,900 vehicles per day or over 20,100 vehicles per week.
 
Source: weibo.com/tv/show/1034:5…
 
9/23/24, ➡️  https://x.com/sawyermerritt/status/1838423464543142304
 1 min clip, in Chinese, with sound effects.
 
—-
Nic Cruz Patane
My local Tesla delivery center in Toronto is delivering a minimum of 200-300 cars per day like clockwork.
 
When I was there I spoke to a few people that were first time Tesla owners taking advantage of the 1.99% financing promo.
 
9/23/24, ➡️ https://x.com/niccruzpatane/status/1838233958250901702
9 sec, & a pic.

—-
Esther Rebers
As expected: the @Tesla cybertruck has just arrived at the Tesla store in Zagreb, Croatia.🇭🇷 …
 
9/24/24, ➡️ https://x.com/estherrebers/status/1838658713390870979
 3 pics: CT in a display area.
 
—-
NEWS: Tesla has secured four new Tesla Megapack orders worth a combined $450 million in Georgia, United States.
 
Georgia Power secured a battery and equipment supply agreement (BESA) with @Tesla for a 500MW/2,000MWh BESS portfolio made up of four projects of varying sizes under development by the investor-owned utility (IOU).
 
Georgia Power secures Tesla battery supply agreement for 2GWh BESS portfolio - Energy-Storage.News
https://www.energy-storage.news/georgia-power-secures-tesla-battery-supply-agreement-for-2gwh-bess-portfolio/
Sub required

🎥 1 min: Tesla vid on the Megapack ➡️  https://x.com/sawyermerritt/status/1838299664145080790
Megafactory can produce 1 Megapack every 68 minutes.  10,000 Megapack units per year.
Adding up to 400 GWh of storage capacity, equal to fifty 200 MW fossil fuel plants.

—-
Morgan Stanley's Adam Jonas on Elon Musk's AI spending: "The Muskonomy is spending the market caps of RIVN and LCID combined, on Al, this year alone.
 
"Tesla intends to spend at least $10B on Al in 2024, on several compute projects: the supercluster in Austin, Texas (planned to house 50,000 H100 GPUs and 20,000 of Tesla's own D1 chip), an inference computer, and Dojo. Their most recent (2Q24) 10Q showed $2.6bn of Computer Equipment, Hardware and Software PPE, $2.5b of Al Infrastructure PPE, and nearly $7bn of Construction in Progress (primarily relating to Al related assets), squaring with the $10b projection. Of the $10bn, Musk estimated spending $5b on internal development, $3-4bn on NVDA GPUs alone, and the rest on residual infrastructure.
 
Not to mention xAl and its own - $10b spend by end of 2024 on the Colossus super cluster..."
 
9/25/24, https://x.com/sawyermerritt/status/1838983184517931261

[nadir]

Fred Lambert reports about the SolarCity Scam by Tesla

It looks like Tesla is completely getting out of solar installations. It makes sense. Tesla wasn't really adding much value there.

It is way better off selling Powerwalls and solar inverters to certified installers. It's a better business and those homeowners will all be potential VPP or Tesla Electric customers.

That said, what has Tesla gained from its SolarCity acquisition now almost 10 years later?

Most of the employees have been let go, solar installations are over, solar inverter, solar roof, Powerwall are what survive, but they are all products Tesla developed, not SolarCity, which was mainly a solar installer and financier.

I was for the acquisition in 2016. It made sense for the mission to combine renewable energy generation to support energy consumption in EVs.

However, it now looks more like Tesla bailing Elon and his family out of SolarCity since Tesla hasn't gain much from the acquisition.

Tesla was also able to salvage the New York factory deal. I guess there's that.



https://electrek.co/2024/09/25/tesla-calls-certify-energy-installers-as-it-winds-down-solar-installations/

[nadir]

This will be one for the history books

Haaaahaaahahhahah…

Meanwhile, miles between FSD critical interventions/disengagements:

[nadir]

Even hard Tesla fans like Jeremy Judkins admitting and explaining the Tesla FSD scam for those who purchased it 5+ years ago and never got what was promised. Some never got FSD, beta, supervised, or otherwise, and that was a non-refundable, non-transferable purchase of many thousands of dollars.

These are the dirty details people like Neil or Sigmetnow find justifiable for Musk to achieve some long-term goals that, in my view, are a total scam as well.

https://x.com/jeremyjudkins_/status/1839353345061826620

[NeilT]

Even hard Tesla fans like Jeremy Judkins admitting and explaining the Tesla FSD scam for those who purchased it 5+ years ago and never got what was promised. Some never got FSD, beta, supervised, or otherwise, and that was a non-refundable, non-transferable purchase of many thousands of dollars.

These are the dirty details people like Neil or Sigmetnow find justifiable for Musk to achieve some long-term goals that, in my view, are a total scam as well.

https://x.com/jeremyjudkins_/status/1839353345061826620

Those people, as do the people buying it today, bought a development product with a promise that when it was regulatory approved they would get the full approved functionality.

Whilst I'm not a major fan of caveat emptor, people do actually need to read the conditions of what they buy.

If you don't understand what you are buying, don't buy it.

[nadir]

Even hard Tesla fans like Jeremy Judkins admitting and explaining the Tesla FSD scam for those who purchased it 5+ years ago and never got what was promised. Some never got FSD, beta, supervised, or otherwise, and that was a non-refundable, non-transferable purchase of many thousands of dollars.

These are the dirty details people like Neil or Sigmetnow find justifiable for Musk to achieve some long-term goals that, in my view, are a total scam as well.

https://x.com/jeremyjudkins_/status/1839353345061826620

Those people, as do the people buying it today, bought a development product with a promise that when it was regulatory approved they would get the full approved functionality.

Whilst I'm not a major fan of caveat emptor, people do actually need to read the conditions of what they buy.

If you don't understand what you are buying, don't buy it.

You lie as flatly and calmly as Musk lied in 2019 about the capabilities of Tesla cars.

Now it’s all the fault of regulatory agencies. FSD, Starship, etc. It’s the new tale pushed by Musk.

[Sigmetnow]

BREAKING: Tesla delivered 462,890 vehicles in Q3, beating Wall St expectations of ~462k. Total Q3 production was 469,796

Tesla also announced they deployed 6.9GWh of energy storage in the quarter, up 73% YoY.
 
10/2/24, 9:01 AM https://x.com/sawyermerritt/status/1841463590525526458

 
Including today's Q3 delivery report, Tesla has now delivered a total of 6,690,810 vehicles since Model S production started in 2012.
 
Tesla is on track to deliver its 7 millionth vehicle this quarter.

[The Walrus]

How is that beating Wall St expectations?  Wall St was expecting ~464k.  Consequently, the stock is dropping today.  We'll see what happens when they report earnings in a few weeks.

[Sigmetnow]

How is that beating Wall St expectations?  Wall St was expecting ~464k.  Consequently, the stock is dropping today.  We'll see what happens when they report earnings in a few weeks.

Some analysts expected slightly more, some slightly less.  Really doesn’t matter.  And as we’ve seen time and again, traders drive up $TSLA stock before an announcement, then sell on the news — be it good or bad.  That’s how they make their commissions.

   —-
Gene Munster on $TSLA: "I have a different view and see the results as a win for the company given they mark a return to growth for the first time in nine months, despite multiple headwinds. As for next year's deliveries, the timing of a new model will have a measurable impact. …"
 

A return to growth
 
September deliveries were up 7% y/y (463k), essentially in line with expectations. I was expecting a slight miss, predicting deliveries would be up 4% y/y (452k) due to the company facing triple demand headwinds. This is positive, as it marks a return to growth after being down 5% in June and 9% in March.
 
The three headwinds:
The macro: The broader auto industry declined in September, with GM, Stellantis FCA, Toyota, and Ford all reporting an average 8% y/y decline in ICE sales. One potential negative for Tesla is that Ford's EV sales were up 12% y/y (hybrid +38% y/y), outpacing Tesla's global 7% rise. However, it's worth noting that Ford's U.S. EV sales are coming off a base that was 1/9th the size of Tesla's U.S. deliveries, so the law of large numbers works in Ford's favor. …’’

His full note: https://deepwatermgmt.com/tesla-deliveries-return-to-growth/

[nadir]

NEWS: Tesla just won dismissal of a shareholder lawsuit alleging misleading statements about self-driving capabilities propped up its stock price.

Interesting that the arguments used by Musk lawyers is that Musk affirmations about FSD and Autopilot were mere “corporate puffery”.

This reminds me of Tucker Carlson and Rachel Maddow both winning their respective defamation lawsuits on the basis that they shouldn’t be taken seriously…

So while I don’t agree with the lawsuit dismissal, the lesson is: don’t take Elon Musk seriously for even a second.

[John_the_Younger]

Tesla glory/failure: I got FSD version 12.5.4 last night. There seemed to be better slowing for a red light (glory) and it wasn't wishy-washy when moving into a turning lane (glory), but a couple phantom breaking [well, there was oncoming traffic in its own lane] (failure) and a couple (attempting to) drive off my home-area dirt roads (more failure).

Two steps forward and two steps back?

[NeilT]

Tesla glory/failure: I got FSD version 12.5.4 last night. There seemed to be better slowing for a red light (glory) and it wasn't wishy-washy when moving into a turning lane (glory), but a couple phantom breaking [well, there was oncoming traffic in its own lane] (failure) and a couple (attempting to) drive off my home-area dirt roads (more failure).

Two steps forward and two steps back?

They are tuning the training runs with limited compute.  It won't be till Q1 next year that they get unconstrained compute, if only for a while.  Then things will change very rapidly.

I recall when the CGI for hollywood movies would take 8 hours to generate.  Then it took minutes, now it takes seconds.

FSD training is about to go through a similar experience and the end result it going to reflect it.

[John_the_Younger]

Two steps forward and two steps back?

I thought of adding: But I hope the stepping is being done in a much better fashion - wouldn't want a clumsy gait!

[nadir]

Tesla glory/failure: I got FSD version 12.5.4 last night. There seemed to be better slowing for a red light (glory) and it wasn't wishy-washy when moving into a turning lane (glory), but a couple phantom breaking [well, there was oncoming traffic in its own lane] (failure) and a couple (attempting to) drive off my home-area dirt roads (more failure).

Two steps forward and two steps back?

They are tuning the training runs with limited compute.  It won't be till Q1 next year that they get unconstrained compute, if only for a while.  Then things will change very rapidly.

I recall when the CGI for hollywood movies would take 8 hours to generate.  Then it took minutes, now it takes seconds.

FSD training is about to go through a similar experience and the end result it going to reflect it.

I read the same three months ago. Is this the quarterly reminder that “they are about to get unconstrained compute”? Whatever that means, whatever that implies, which the top experts on AI are not sure about, at all, much less NeilT.

[NeilT]

I read the same three months ago. Is this the quarterly reminder that “they are about to get unconstrained compute”? Whatever that means, whatever that implies, which the top experts on AI are not sure about, at all, much less NeilT.

Perhaps the top experts on AI are not watching the build out at giga Texas.  You can't run an intensive compute farm when the cooling system is not fully connected and tested.  There are pipes and manifolds still not connected and none of the cooling systems have been tested, their fans are entirely still.

Until this happens the compute they are currently building out is not available.

[nadir]

Meanwhile, Elon Musk goes on with his puffery.

[John Batteen]

https://www.torquenews.com/11826/geico-terminating-insurance-coverage-tesla-cybertrucks-says-type-vehicle-doesnt-meet-our

     “2024TESLACYBERTRUCK

    VIN: xxxxxxxxxxxxx

    Policy Number: xxxxxxx

    Dear xxxxx

    We would like to thank you for choosing GEICO for your insurance needs. After a careful review of your policy records, we have determined that we are unable to continue your insurance coverage for the 2024 TESLA CYBERTRUCK.

    We have taken this action for the following reason(s): We are unable to insure your 2024 TESLA CYBERTRUCK xxxxxxx because this type of vehicle doesn't meet our underwriting guidelines.

    Therefore, we must notify you as follows:

    ALL COVERAGE ON THE 2024 TESLA CYBERTRUCK PROVIDED BY GEICO CASUALTY COMPANY, UNDER THE ABOVE POLICY NUMBER, WILL NON-RENEW AS OF 12:01 A.M. ON xx/xx/xx.

    We are able to continue coverage on the remaining vehicle(s) on your policy.

    Your updated policy documents will follow shortly. We regret that circumstances require this action and urge you to obtain other coverage on the 2024 TESLA CYBERTRUCK prior to xx,xx, 2024.”

    If you have any questions, please do not hesitate to contact us at the number below.

[Rascal Dog]

Meanwhile, Elon Musk goes on with his puffery.

So 10,000 miles between critical interventions, in other words when you have to stop the car from killing you.

Once a year.

You have to be ready alert and to intervene for a whole year or more, paying attention when nothing is happening, because one day the car will try to kill you.

It would be easier if the car tried to kill you every 10 minutes or so, because it would be easier to be alert.

This is like the uncanny valley effect.

Humans are fairly good at tasks where they need to take actions.

Humans are fairly bad at tasks where they need to pay attention and only rarely take actions.

If Musk's puffery is or becomes correct, I predict that the "Full" self driving death rate will rise.

[nadir]

Meanwhile, Elon Musk goes on with his puffery.

So 10,000 miles between critical interventions, in other words when you have to stop the car from killing you.

Once a year.

You have to be ready alert and to intervene for a whole year or more, paying attention when nothing is happening, because one day the car will try to kill you.

It would be easier if the car tried to kill you every 10 minutes or so, because it would be easier to be alert.

This is like the uncanny valley effect.

Humans are fairly good at tasks where they need to take actions.

Humans are fairly bad at tasks where they need to pay attention and only rarely take actions.

If Musk's puffery is or becomes correct, I predict that the "Full" self driving death rate will rise.

You are right and this is what was found 10 years ago by Google engineers as I posted before. A no-go strategy precisely because of that human factor you explain. Go autonomous from the get go no matter how much extra technology is needed; the human assist alternative is a murderous one.

This is something a ten year old understands, but cultists are blind to it or justify the loss of human lives in order for Tesla to achieve its long-term objectives on FSD. Ask Neil.

[nadir]

Mass insurers denying insurance for a specific car model, and we’re not talking about a top-tier Lamborghini. This is not usual at all.

https://www.torquenews.com/11826/geico-terminating-insurance-coverage-tesla-cybertrucks-says-type-vehicle-doesnt-meet-our

[Sigmetnow]

Mass insurers denying insurance for a specific car model, and we’re not talking about a top-tier Lamborghini. This is not usual at all.

https://www.torquenews.com/11826/geico-terminating-insurance-coverage-tesla-cybertrucks-says-type-vehicle-doesnt-meet-our

NEWS: A spokesperson for GEICO says “GEICO has coverage available nationwide for the Tesla Cybertruck.
There were false rumors that GEICO had been terminating Cybertruck coverage.
 
GEICO Says It Will Renew Tesla Cybertruck Policies Nationwide

On Sunday night, the Internet was aflutter with a scurrilous rumor. GEICO had blacklisted the proud Tesla Cybertruck, and owners would be left scrambling for insurance coverage elsewhere. Understandably, this would be unwelcome news to many a Cybertruck owner. However, it appears that GEICO will continue to insure Cybertrucks.
 
The story comes to us via Torque News. The outlet reported on the case of one Robert Stevenson, a Cybertruck owner who was, up until recently, insured with GEICO. Robert had apparently taken to Twitter to complain that the company had recently informed him that it could no longer insure his Cybertruck. The post has since been deleted but is preserved in a post on Reddit’s r/CyberStuck community.

…
The question is—has GEICO actually put the Cybertruck on some sort of blacklist? Or is it only canceling the policies of some owners for specific reasons?

GEICO Says It Will Insure The Cybertruck
A spokesperson for GEICO told The Autopian that “GEICO has coverage available nationwide for the Tesla Cybertruck.”
To double-check that,  I went to GEICO’s website and found out it will still allow you to run a quote for a Cybertruck. I was able to get a figure of $583.92 a month for an unmarried Cybertruck owner living in Hermosa Beach, California, driving roughly 15,000 miles a year. However, that’s not rock-solid proof. I didn’t purchase the policy, after all. I was also able to get a quote for New York, too.
 

On background, GEICO did tell The Autopian that “Because of its gross weight and potential challenges with parts availability for repair shops, some customers may have received notices stating that PPA insurance would not be renewed for this vehicle. However, policies for this vehicle have always been available through our commercial insurance division, and now remain available via PPA as well.”

This seems to give some credence to the theory that people did indeed get nonrenewal notices and that, in some places, differences in state laws led to owners being informed that they should switch to commercial vehicle insurance. That last bit of “now remain available via PPA as well” seems to be an indication that GEICO has decided it’s better to insure the Cybertruck than it is to raise a fuss.
 
Either way, GEICO also said it would be reaching out to all its customers who received a non-renewal notice.

In any case, there are plenty of other insurance companies out there. Owners groups have reported success gaining coverage with USAA and Progressive, among others.

https://www.theautopian.com/geico-says-it-will-renew-tesla-cybertruck-policies-nationwide/

[nadir]

Mass insurers denying insurance for a specific car model, and we’re not talking about a top-tier Lamborghini. This is not usual at all.

https://www.torquenews.com/11826/geico-terminating-insurance-coverage-tesla-cybertrucks-says-type-vehicle-doesnt-meet-our

This originated from an X account post, and was amplified by torquenews, the verge, etc.

A lot of disinformation from X amplified by tech media these days. The post apparently has been deleted and the outlets are rectifying after contacting Geico.

[nadir]

* Tesla’s CIO, Nagesh Saldi (who reported directly to E. Musk, and built Tesla’s data centers in TX/NY), quit 5 days ahead of "Cybercab day”.

* Daniel Ho (who reported directly to E. Musk, and served as Head of TSLA's Vehicle Programs) quit 12 days ahead of "Cybercab day".

* Jos Dings (who reported directly to E. Musk, and served as Director of Public Policy / Business Development) quit 10 days ahead of "Cybercab day".

* David Zhang (who reported directly to E. Musk, and served as the company's Model S and Model X program manager) also quit 10 days ahead of "Cybercab day".

Interesting!

https://x.com/gordonjohnson19/status/1843961296204533762