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crandles

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1450 on: February 24, 2019, 06:17:29 PM »
Interest rates fall in such an environment.  Thus, the cost of rolling over some or all of this debt might be quite a bit lower in two months than now.  If so, it would make sense to delay the rollover of debt.  This calculation might hold even for a corporation rolling in dough.

Not sure that works, if 'rolling in dough' and recession coming so unlikely to get good investment opportunities then it is sensible to pay down debt which will minimise interest costs even if interest rates will be lower soon.

But I agree with general thrust of your post that there may be many examples but no-one here manages to come up with one.

It is more a case of there being some need for the cash: In Tesla's case this may be need to finance all those model 3s on ships to Europe and China as well as the much talked about bond repayment.

There must be examples though. E.g. Iridium nearly went bust but recovered and launched 75 new satellites recently. No idea if they did roll over a bond when they had 20* the cash available before starting to pay for the satellites and launches. Seems such situation is plausible enough it must happen frequently enough. However, I am not going to bother going looking as even if I successfully found one, I imagine GoSouthYoungins would easily manage to wriggle to a dismissive 'well they nearly went bust anyway' sort of attitude so I see no point bothering to look. Hence likelihood of no-one actually coming up with an example.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1451 on: February 24, 2019, 08:05:10 PM »
The presence or absence of LIDAR may prove to more of a marketing issue than one of safety in the future. “The new Belchfire 5000! Now with 20% more LIDAR!!”

Tesla's Lack Of LIDAR For Autopilot Is Legit & Provides Competitive Edge, Research Hints
Quote
... the new study confirms that Tesla has chosen the correct path forward as it pursues its goal of being the first company to offer fully autonomous cars.

While the high cost of LIDAR technology will hold other companies back, Tesla will be gathering data from its entire fleet of cars daily. By 2020, Tesla will have collected information from more than 11 billion miles of driving. Other companies will struggle to amass one tenth as much. Even if the cost of LIDAR drops in the future, other companies will lag years behind Tesla at getting their self-driving cars on the road.
...
So, is LIDAR necessary to self-driving vehicles or not? There is no question that more information makes for better decision making, but LIDAR is often hampered by low-visibility situations — smoke, haze, snow, rain, and the like. Tesla has figured out how to use radar to create highly accurate digital maps, allowing it to de-emphasize its reliance on cameras. ...
https://cleantechnica.com/2017/11/14/teslas-lack-lidar-autopilot-legit-provides-cost-competitive-edge-research-hints/
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GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1452 on: February 24, 2019, 08:17:43 PM »
Companies do this all the time.

I bet there is a ZERO% chance you can give me a single example of a large company that put off a bond repayment which was approx %5 their "cash balance", and the company was not of the verge of bankruptcy.
...

So, you are SO ABSOLUTELY CERTAIN Tesla is going bankrupt...  that when they not only don’t go bankrupt, they in fact report a profit for Q1, you will admit you are wrong about them?  Promise?

What a strange gap between what I said and your response. I'm saying there are no prior examples of what the bulls think (and Tesla claims) is happening.

If they post an annual profit, I'll admit I am wrong. If ANY Muskian project posts an annual profit, I'll admit I'm wrong. So far Musk is 0 for 45, and I see no sign of a change in the winds. And to be clear, running a successful business requires far more than a single year of profit. But to never have a profit is just incredible failure. Almost impressive really. I doubt there has ever been somebody who has been at the helm of so many loses without a single profit. Which is why Musk truly is the greatest con man of all time.

Still waiting, any examples of a company unwilling to part with 5% of their cash to pay back a loan?!?
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GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1453 on: February 24, 2019, 09:40:01 PM »
The Tesla Full-Self-Driving Lie is actually my very favorite. It is unique in that it requires no special understanding of finance or manufacturing. All that is needed to see this fraud is a pinch of common sense and a single drop of intellectual honesty...


In Jan 2017, Musk said FSD would be available in "6 months definitely". Now, 25 months later, Musk claims FSD is 22 months away.

Tesla started taking $1000 reservations for FSD 29 months ago. 8 months ago they increased the price to $3000. 5 months ago they eliminated the option all together, lol. Of course, nobody was been refunded for their FSD reservations.

(Interestingly, Tesla does not include any separate accounting for their reservations, both FSD or just for a car, in any of their financial statements. It should be kept separate and seen as a liability. Instead they just count it as cash. This is probably to obscure the # of reservations for cars that they have, which they now claim to be unimportant...despite raising billion of dollars based on the claim that they had 450,000 reservations.)

Every car they sell, they claim has the hardware to be FSD. This is a pure fiction. There is no way to know what is required for FSD. Claiming to have the hardware for a yet to be developed technology is absurd.

Best of all, Tesla claims to have well over a billion miles worth of data put into their "learning neural network", yet they do not have FSD. How is the next billion miles supposed to provide the breakthrough that the first billion could not?!? The whole concept is silly.

But hey, cleantechnica and InsideEVs and Teslarati and Electrek say it is going to work, so I guess that usurps basic logic...
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Archimid

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1454 on: February 24, 2019, 10:55:12 PM »
Quote
How is the next billion miles supposed to provide the breakthrough that the first billion could not?!? The whole concept is silly.

Wow. It is always encouraging to know the level of knowledge of Tesla haters. They hate because they don't understand.

There are trillions of miles driven every year. Every day they are slightly different even tho they follow the same rules and fixed infrastructure. An algorithm that solves driving is impossible to build by hand given the space of solutions it will be asked to solve. It must be built by acquiring as much data as possible and solving as many corner cases as possible.

 The second billion miles will improve the driving performance. The third billion miles will improve it further. It is likely that driving algorithm will keep improving until humans are no longer allowed to drive because they will be deemed too dangerous.
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oren

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1455 on: February 24, 2019, 11:22:58 PM »
GSY, I'm having trouble following your logic with all the CAPS and !!!, but are you saying that normal companies who have lots of cash don't roll over bonds? The whole corporate debt bubble is built on companies taking on more debt thanks to low interest rates. Even when they don't need it, because you never know when you might need it.
And for a company where loads of people are screaming imminent bankruptcy, it makes perfect sense to retain as much short-term cash as possible.

GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1456 on: February 25, 2019, 01:23:12 AM »
Quote
How is the next billion miles supposed to provide the breakthrough that the first billion could not?!? The whole concept is silly.

Wow. It is always encouraging to know the level of knowledge of Tesla haters. They hate because they don't understand.

There are trillions of miles driven every year. Every day they are slightly different even tho they follow the same rules and fixed infrastructure. An algorithm that solves driving is impossible to build by hand given the space of solutions it will be asked to solve. It must be built by acquiring as much data as possible and solving as many corner cases as possible.

 The second billion miles will improve the driving performance. The third billion miles will improve it further. It is likely that driving algorithm will keep improving until humans are no longer allowed to drive because they will be deemed too dangerous.

Really? So there isn't any diminishing return on the learning? There will be AI epiphanies? Like every other pillar of the Tesla bull infrastructure, there are ZERO examples of this ever happening. But even if it did. How is a human supposed to know when the threshold will be crossed?   It is impossible. Which should be obvious considering 25 months ago Musk said it would definitely happen in 6 months, and now claims it will happen in 22 months. Just making shit up.

If you want to break it down by miles driven, Musk was saying it would definitely be ready after about 10 million miles. Now at like 1.3 billion miles, he is saying it will be ready by 4 billion miles. So he was at least 130x off before. But now he is saying just 3x more. Hahahaha. It is so absurd ppl take him seriously.
« Last Edit: February 25, 2019, 01:49:56 AM by GoSouthYoungins »
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GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1457 on: February 25, 2019, 01:47:01 AM »
GSY, I'm having trouble following your logic with all the CAPS and !!!, but are you saying that normal companies who have lots of cash don't roll over bonds? The whole corporate debt bubble is built on companies taking on more debt thanks to low interest rates. Even when they don't need it, because you never know when you might need it.
And for a company where loads of people are screaming imminent bankruptcy, it makes perfect sense to retain as much short-term cash as possible.

Helpful hint: CAPS and !!!! have no effect on the logic of anything. They are emphasis. Same with bold. <snip, snarky; N.>

Anyways, I agree with the basic logic of what you are saying. Which is why it should be such a red flag that Tesla has not raised capital despite needing about $20 billion in the next 3 years for projects it was already announced.

Problem is, your logic doesn't apply to this situation. (Yes, normal companies roll over debt.) Telsa is not rolling over its debt. That would mean they issued new bonds to pay off the old bonds. Tesla simply extended the repayment on an existing bond:

In March 2016, a subsidiary of SolarCity entered into an agreement for a term loan. The term loan bears interest at an annual rate of the lender’s cost of funds plus 3.25%. The fee for undrawn commitments is 0.85% per annum. On March 31, 2017, the agreement was amended to upsize the committed amount, extend the availability period and extend the maturity date. The term loan is secured by substantially all of the assets of the subsidiary and is non-recourse to our other assets. The term loan had an original maturity date of December 2018 and on December 19, 2018, the maturity date was extended to January 2019. On January 30, 2019, the maturity date of the term loan was further extended to April 2019.

http://ir.tesla.com/node/19496/html

THAT is what I'm asking for an example of from a healthy company. But of course, one does not exist. Solvent companies either issue new debt or pay back the old debt. Duh.

A lender is likely to work with a borrower to reschedule a debt because rescheduling represents a better option for the lender than default.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/debt-rescheduling.asp

Damn, even investopedia is in big oil's pocket now and is spreading FUD.

<snip, snarky; N.>
« Last Edit: February 25, 2019, 09:07:41 AM by Neven »
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magnamentis

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1458 on: February 25, 2019, 02:11:46 AM »

Best of all, Tesla claims to have well over a billion miles worth of data put into their "learning neural network", yet they do not have FSD. How is the next billion miles supposed to provide the breakthrough that the first billion could not?!? The whole concept is silly.

it's a pitty somehow, you post many things that make a lot of sense, often are simple facts for those who know but will never convince those who prefer "believe" over kowledge and then you make one or two angry errors that destroy credibility and ammunitions you opponents, so you feed them, this time you made it even "best of all"

what i'm referring to ist that:

yes leve 5 which is the only FSD that counts as such is far away and will probably be first implemented by another company than tesla, i have good reason/insight to say so but beside that
you say that more mileage of data gathering won't make a difference and that's unfortunately wrong, simply wrong, no buts and nothing, because no matter when FSD will be ready for consumers, latest on that very day each mile of data gathered throughout the previous years counts.

if only you guys, both sides, would be more open to the other sides reasoning and discuss instead of preaching what was already said and what's already obvious each from his point of view.

the truth like so often lays somewhere in between the extremes. why not honor what tesla/musk does and did well and criticise what's going wrong?

you have so many good point, just try to keep it cool or let the believers waste their life energy into illusions. after all we have almost proof that there is no god (old man with the beard who speaks from clouds) and there will still be no way to convince the pope or any other believer who commited 90% of his life to his religion/believes.

what i found funny or in fact not so funny is that after you came up with some insight (for others with insight the insight is visible, for those without insight it's just another blabla... LOL) and in reply to your post there were guys statin that there are no people with economic knowledge and insight.

i can tell you there are, it's just not recommended to come up here with real names but some would probably be surprised to whom they're talking and some people here, i can tell for sure, have degrees, experience in economics and decent to high positions in large enterprises.

like a weatherman will recognize a weatherman, a studied economist will recognize another expert of his own field.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1459 on: February 25, 2019, 02:12:41 PM »
Quote
If they post an annual profit, I'll admit I am wrong. If ANY Muskian project posts an annual profit, I'll admit I'm wrong. So far Musk is 0 for 45, and I see no sign of a change in the winds.  And to be clear, running a successful business requires far more than a single year of profit. But to never have a profit is just incredible failure. Almost impressive really. I doubt there has ever been somebody who has been at the helm of so many loses without a single profit. ...

3Q 2018:  Tesla GAAP Profitable
4Q 2018:  Tesla GAAP Profitable

Sort of destroys the entire bear argument that “Tesla will never make a profit!”  So now all that’s left is to move the goalposts:  must show annual profit!  Not just four quarters, but a calendar year!  Then: even annual profit isn’t sufficient, you know.  Gotta have five years of profit to really say they are successful.  Then: ....

Or, switch the argument to: this particular product is currently unprofitable, so Tesla is a complete failure!

Be honest.  You really don’t give a wit about profit.  Tesla could show a profit from here to eternity and it would not change your views.  Dare to give a hard date for that admission you are wrong?
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1460 on: February 25, 2019, 02:15:04 PM »
Quote
You honestly think the GC, who is a super experienced and well respected and high-level lawyer, and knowingly took the position in a $50B company, was put off by a $250M acquisition?

Written like someone who still hasn’t read the S-4 filing.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1461 on: February 25, 2019, 02:19:57 PM »
Then:  The Model 3 will never succeed in Germany.  Germans love their German brands, dislike American cars, and demand German-like quality in their cars.

Now:
Quote
… [Model 3] Fit & Finish is called on German level from Germans
https://twitter.com/alex_avoigt/status/1097610151622819842


“All negative comments without exception are from before the car was in the hands of the customer, before it was seen in person, and before the car was driving from the delivery center parking lot with the owner smiling at the steering wheel.”

Tesla Model 3 Consumer Satisfaction In Germany — The Good & The Bad
https://cleantechnica.com/2019/02/24/tesla-model-3-consumer-satisfaction-in-germany-the-good-the-bad/

From the comments on the article: “It has the feel of an invasion of an alien technology. It isn't really an American car, it is an Elon car.....”
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1462 on: February 25, 2019, 03:36:28 PM »
[sarcasm font.  size: large  ;) ]
Quote
2/22/19, 9:20 AM
Elon lied about China deliveries
https://twitter.com/28delayslater/status/1098950673973104642
Twitter image below.

Vincent: Yes, Elon lied to me, I can be the evidence. ;D
- I’m glad the victims are coming forward. I’m so sorry this happened to you Vincent
Vincent: It’s hurt, I expected March, now became February.
< Where is the SEC? We need to file reports!
[/sarcasm font]
   
Tesla Model 3 deliveries in China are starting earlier than expected
Quote
In a statement to Reuters, Tesla noted that the earlier-than-expected deliveries “marked a significant milestone for the market,” particularly as the company has been rather conservative about its timeframes for the Model 3’s push into China.
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-model-3-deliveries-china-begin-early/
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crandles

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1463 on: February 25, 2019, 05:15:43 PM »
So far Musk is 0 for 45, and I see no sign of a change in the winds.

How do you know it is 0 for 45? SpaceX is a private co, have they published their results or have you in some other way managed to see them?

The obvious is that SpaceX has grown to be launching on or around or probably over half of all US orbital space launches. This is hugely impressive even if you don't want to acknowledge that. Anyway, SpaceX isn't any longer in a rapidly growing phase where you might expect losses before it reaches a sustainable size. If there were losses then how are not only those losses being funded but also investments in starship which is clearly happening (regardless of you thinking what is happening is ridiculous) and superheavy booster being funded? Hence the natural assumption would be that SpaceX is profitable. Yet you express certain confidence there isn't an annual profit.

If nothing will persuade you then there isn't much point in conversing with you.

You appear to be showing that you don't believe this because you don't want to believe it and it is hard to imagine anything short of a slam dunk will change your mind.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1464 on: February 25, 2019, 06:12:20 PM »
”As the Chinese and U.S. negotiators reach the last phase of the trade talks, the probability of tariffs on car imports being restored is near to zero, which could allow the company to recover its revenues in China in the first quarter of 2019.”

Tesla Will Be a Major Winner With a Progressive U.S.-China Trade Deal
https://www.ccn.com/tesla-will-be-a-major-winner-with-a-progressive-u-s-china-trade-deal/
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GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1465 on: February 25, 2019, 07:45:35 PM »
So far Musk is 0 for 45, and I see no sign of a change in the winds.

How do you know it is 0 for 45? SpaceX is a private co, have they published their results or have you in some other way managed to see them?

The obvious is that SpaceX has grown to be launching on or around or probably over half of all US orbital space launches. This is hugely impressive even if you don't want to acknowledge that. Anyway, SpaceX isn't any longer in a rapidly growing phase where you might expect losses before it reaches a sustainable size. If there were losses then how are not only those losses being funded but also investments in starship which is clearly happening (regardless of you thinking what is happening is ridiculous) and superheavy booster being funded? Hence the natural assumption would be that SpaceX is profitable. Yet you express certain confidence there isn't an annual profit.

If nothing will persuade you then there isn't much point in conversing with you.

You appear to be showing that you don't believe this because you don't want to believe it and it is hard to imagine anything short of a slam dunk will change your mind.

Raising capital, but not as much as wished is a good sign. Laying off 10% of the workforce while trying to grow is another sign. Also, if there was an annual profit, Musk would be screaming about it from rooftops.

In all fairness, the WSJ thinks there is a chance that SpaceX turned a 0.2% profit 5 years ago. (I'm not sure a 0.2% profit sandwiched between heavy loses should really count, but whatever.)

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-11-08/musk-said-to-divide-wall-street-with-demands-for-new-spacex-loan

"While SpaceX is burning through cash, disclosures to potential lenders showed the company had positive earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization of around $270 million for the twelve months through September, people with knowledge of the matter said. But that’s because it included amounts that customers had prepaid and because it excluded costs related to non-core research and development, the people said. Without those adjustments, earnings for the period were negative, they said."

But why get into the weeds with the private companies. Plenty of public examples and 0 for __ profits.

Anyone want to show a Musk company annual profit? Good luck!
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GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1466 on: February 25, 2019, 08:26:49 PM »
Does it not bother the bulls at all that EVERY legendary investor has no opinion or a negative opinion of Tesla?!?

In particular, the people are are famous for cashing in on the most lucrative shorts of all time, are all short Tesla...

-Stanley Druckenmiller, famous for short the pound in 1992 (making a billion dollars in the process), is short Tesla.
-Jim Chanos, famous for shorting Baldwin-United before the largest ever bankruptcy (at that time) and later for shorting Enron before the largest ever bankruptcy (at that time), is short Tesla.
-David Einhorn, famous for shorting Lehman Bros before THE largest bankruptcy ever, is short Tesla.
-Steve Eisman, famous for shorting CDOs comprised of morgages before the housing bubble collapse, is short Tesla.

In addition, WARREN BUFFET, thinks Tesla is a bad investment and said Apple (which he owns a significant amount of via BRK) sinking money into Tesla would be "a very poor idea".

The above is creme de la creme of financial wisdom and experience. So who does own Tesla? Partially, it is funds who have a "green" portfolio offered. But sadly/ironically/hilariously/tragically it is mostly retail investors comprised predominately of fanbois. I'd image most people who buy a Tesla own TSLA. It will be a brutal doubt whammy if/when Tesla goes bust.  Is there a single famous/top-level investor who is long Tesla? I don't think so.
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Archimid

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1467 on: February 25, 2019, 10:14:34 PM »
Ok , let's assume no Musk company ever makes money, then why do it? Why invest most of his Paypal (ignore paypal's profits for this argument) money on businesses destined for failure?
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magnamentis

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1468 on: February 25, 2019, 10:26:32 PM »
Ok , let's assume no Musk company ever makes money, then why do it? Why invest most of his Paypal (ignore paypal's profits for this argument) money on businesses destined for failure?

fame for one, for those who have plenty of money money is not the main driver but
fame and power and eternal life in form of nice entries in the history books which he
achieved already.

no matter the fate of any of his enterprises, he moved something significant on this planet
for which he, no matter of some shortcomings, he deserves respect.

BTW, nobody is perfect anyways, hence even though i don't like the guy, he kicked of a few good and important things and that's more then most can say about themselves ;)

oren

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1469 on: February 25, 2019, 10:29:48 PM »
GSY - why would someone who thinks Tesla's stated mission is bad, and that EVs in general are not a solution to anything and are a distraction, be so repetitively  concerned whether Tesla is profitable or not? Whether they go bankrupt or not?

zizek

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1470 on: February 25, 2019, 11:41:06 PM »
Ok , let's assume no Musk company ever makes money, then why do it? Why invest most of his Paypal (ignore paypal's profits for this argument) money on businesses destined for failure?
Why are you so dense? We live in the year 2019, and you still can't conceive of a situation where executives can profit off of failing companies?

The book Bad Blood should be mandatory reading for all posters in the Policy and Solutions forum.

crandles

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1471 on: February 26, 2019, 12:12:08 AM »
Raising capital, but not as much as wished is a good sign.

https://www.bizjournals.com/losangeles/news/2018/11/21/spacex-slashes-first-loan-to-250-million.html

Quote
Elon Musk’s company has secured a $250 million high-yield loan, Bloomberg first reported.

There was enough interest in the debt for $750 million, but SpaceX opted to keep it to a third of that because the company is comfortable with its ability to generate cash on that size of loan, added The Wall Street Journal.

The seven-year loan was priced at 99 cents on the dollar with an interest rate 4.25 percent above the Libor benchmark rate — within but on the high end of original guidance on the larger loan.

So it seems they could have had the full $750 million loan if they wanted but SpaceX decided to limit what they took to $250 million. So saying "but not as much as wished" appears inaccurate according to that report of what happened.

aperson

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1472 on: February 26, 2019, 12:49:06 AM »
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-02-25/elon-musk-faces-u-s-contempt-claim-for-violating-sec-accord

Title: Elon Musk Faces U.S. Contempt Claim for Violating SEC Accord

Extract:

The SEC claimed on Monday that a Feb. 19 tweet by Musk violated the settlement when he wrote that “Tesla made 0 cars in 2011, but will make around 500k in 2019.” The settlement with the agency required him to seek pre-approval from the company for social media posts and other written communication that would be material to the company or investors.

“He once again published inaccurate and material information about Tesla to his over 24 million Twitter followers, including members of the press, and made this inaccurate information available to anyone with Internet access,” the SEC said in court papers filed in Manhattan federal court.

Tesla shares plunged as much as 5.4 percent as of 6:30 p.m. Monday in New York. The stock was already down 10 percent this year through the close of regular trading.
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zizek

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1473 on: February 26, 2019, 01:16:17 AM »
I will concede some of my accusations of Musk being a fraudster. I think he's just really stupid. On top of that, his immense wealth & cult-like fans has poisoned himself into thinking he can get away with anything. But yeah, he's just really dumb.

crandles

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1474 on: February 26, 2019, 01:45:02 AM »
Went to check, two tweets still there at time of writing:

Quote
Tesla made 0 cars in 2011, but will make around 500k in 2019
Posted Tues Feb 19 11:15pm ET

Quote
Meant to say annualized production rate at end of 2019 probably around 500k, ie 10k cars/week. Deliveries for year still estimated to be about 400k.
Posted Tues Feb 19 3:41pm ET

So mistaken post not corrected for nearly 4.5 hours when stock market open. And of course his tweets, at least with sensitive info, are supposed to be vetted.

That does look like a big oops. He seemed to manage that same mistake in the Earnings call as well but it did get corrected by someone else fairly quickly then. You would think he might have learnt from making the identical mistake before.

Saying he didn't respect SEC doesn't look smart now (and probably didn't look smart before). Doubt SEC will be inclined to be lenient as a result of that remark.

Yes, this is clearly making Musk look stupid.

Edit sorry got time conversion wrong.
« Last Edit: February 26, 2019, 10:57:23 AM by crandles »

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1475 on: February 26, 2019, 02:34:41 AM »
Quote
Yes, this is clearly making Musk look stupid.

To me it is the opposite. This is making the law look stupid. Specially, in hindsight ( if they eventually win) when people are wishing for refrigeration but they have no battery/solar backup power at home. Or when government realize the catastrophic mistake they made by ignoring climate change and they have no replacement technology for transportation.

All over a mostly accurate tweet.

What do I think happened? The target in his mind is 500k, but he is getting pressured to be less optimistic. So when  he tweeted he didn't think of the negative interpretations that could be given to his tweet.

By the way, has anyone ever seen a TV commercial with misleading information? Every TV, magazine, radio, or internet ad you have ever seen is the company speaking.  Has anyone ever seen misleading ads? That is also misleading potential shareholders. That is common practice.

But here we are in court over a tweet.

Luckily, this is not the end, no matter what. Just one more obstacle to overcome. Even in a worst case, if Elon is ousted as CEO, he will still be an engineer at Tesla. More engineering, less businessy, lawyery things. Best case, Elon can use the shallowness of the accusation to his favor. Go Tesla! Go Elon! They've beaten much bigger obstacles.
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1476 on: February 26, 2019, 02:47:30 AM »
Went to check, two tweets still there at time of writing:

Quote
Tesla made 0 cars in 2011, but will make around 500k in 2019
Posted Tues Feb 19 11:15pm ET

Quote
Meant to say annualized production rate at end of 2019 probably around 500k, ie 10k cars/week. Deliveries for year still estimated to be about 400k.
Posted Tues Feb 19 3:41pm ET

So mistaken post not corrected for nearly 4.5 hours when stock market open. And of course his tweets, at least with sensitive info, are supposed to be vetted.


Crandles, when I see the tweets it says "8:15 PM - 19 Feb 2019" for the first one and "12:41 AM - 20 Feb 2019' for the second one.  It seems to me that the time you see is adjusted yto your time zone?  If so, this tweets were not over market hours.
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1477 on: February 26, 2019, 02:50:26 AM »
Whether the SEC is witch-hunting him or not, and whether or not he means well, doesn't change the fact that once an agreement was reached with the SEC that someone in Tesla should monitor his tweets, that agreement needs to be upheld. It is stupid when under the SEC scrutiny to continue tweeting as if nothing has happened. Tesla can afford to have an employee read all his tweets and approve them in real time before publishing, and nothing will be hurt except Musk's pride.

Note the tweets were not during market hours IIRC, but during after-hours, not that it makes much difference IMHO.

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1478 on: February 26, 2019, 03:04:26 AM »
Oren, if you knew people will read, edit  or censure what you write, would you write the same way? No. Impossible. Censuring your own writing for fear of censorship is probably the quickest way to kill creativity. Elon still enjoys the right to free speech and this tweet did not move the markets in any way.

This tweet was not material information, was after market hours and clarification was offered before  market open. I think he SEC is significantly over reaching. The courts will decide.
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1479 on: February 26, 2019, 03:12:42 AM »
Oren, if you knew people will read, edit  or censure what you write, would you write the same way? No. Impossible. Censuring your own writing for fear of censorship is probably the quickest way to kill creativity. Elon still enjoys the right to free speech and this tweet did not move the markets in any way.

This tweet was not material information, was after market hours and clarification was offered before  market open. I think he SEC is significantly over reaching. The courts will decide.

Non-public production numbers are material information. The original tweet was made at 7:15PM ET which is 45 minutes before the After-hours market closes.

I understand you like to cheerlead for Tesla. I recommend that you cheerlead by not posting information that is factually incorrect.
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1480 on: February 26, 2019, 04:12:08 AM »
It was after regular market hours. My information is correct, opposite to what was posted above and yet uncorrected.
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1481 on: February 26, 2019, 04:47:09 AM »
Ok , let's assume no Musk company ever makes money, then why do it? Why invest most of his Paypal (ignore paypal's profits for this argument) money on businesses destined for failure?

The very last thing Musk says in the video below is, "I'd like to be on the cover of rolling stone. That'd be cool. Hehehe."



Oh, and this...
big time oops

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1482 on: February 26, 2019, 05:19:48 AM »
Raising capital, but not as much as wished is a good sign.

https://www.bizjournals.com/losangeles/news/2018/11/21/spacex-slashes-first-loan-to-250-million.html

Quote
Elon Musk’s company has secured a $250 million high-yield loan, Bloomberg first reported.

There was enough interest in the debt for $750 million, but SpaceX opted to keep it to a third of that because the company is comfortable with its ability to generate cash on that size of loan, added The Wall Street Journal.

The seven-year loan was priced at 99 cents on the dollar with an interest rate 4.25 percent above the Libor benchmark rate — within but on the high end of original guidance on the larger loan.

So it seems they could have had the full $750 million loan if they wanted but SpaceX decided to limit what they took to $250 million. So saying "but not as much as wished" appears inaccurate according to that report of what happened.

Holy moly. I'll try to help out...

-Early November: SpaceX announces that they are trying to raise $750M and that commitments are due by the 16th.
-November 18th: SpaceX announces it raised $250M but that it didn't want any more.
-December 18th: Story breaks that SpaceX funds being used for Boring Company without board approval, and board not happy.
-ALSO December 18th: SpaceX announces desire to raise $500M.
-STILL December 18th: Musk mortgages 5 houses for over $50M.
-December 19th: Tesla postpones bond repayment due at end of month.
-Early January: SpaceX raises about $250M.
-Middle January: SpaceX and Tesla layoff 10% of workforce each.
-Late January: Tesla re-postpones bond repayment.

Hope that clears it up for you. They failed to raise to $750 the first time. They tried again a month later and failed again, even with Musk leveraging his personal finances. They had to fire people, despite claims of growth.

If you want to Venmo me for the lesson, message me and we'll go from there.

 
big time oops

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1483 on: February 26, 2019, 05:36:59 AM »
Oren, if you knew people will read, edit  or censure what you write, would you write the same way? No. Impossible. Censuring your own writing for fear of censorship is probably the quickest way to kill creativity. Elon still enjoys the right to free speech and this tweet did not move the markets in any way.

This tweet was not material information, was after market hours and clarification was offered before  market open. I think he SEC is significantly over reaching. The courts will decide.

100% incorrect. Production number are absolutely material information. The very essence of material information. Not even close to a grey area. And Tesla has filed with the SEC stating that Musk's twitter account IS in fact an official communications channel.

As for the SEC over-reaching...the exact opposite again. Musk was literally nonstop violating the agreement. He was basically taunting the SEC continuously. At some point they had to take action to avoid being seen as completely flaccid and totally unwilling to hold people to their settlements. Musk really left them no choice.
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1484 on: February 26, 2019, 06:18:53 AM »
You have no idea what you're talking about and you're just spewing nonsense and embarrassing yourself

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1485 on: February 26, 2019, 09:03:22 AM »
You have no idea what you're talking about and you're just spewing nonsense and embarrassing yourself
That's not a very nice thing to say about GSY ;)

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1486 on: February 26, 2019, 11:06:09 AM »
It was after regular market hours. My information is correct, opposite to what was posted above and yet uncorrected.

Give me a chance to sleep, I have crossed the hours out now. But sorry for getting time conversion wrong.

I wondered whether you would attempt to defend Musk. Pretty indefensible IMHO. Well I guess you could say it doesn't show him to be stupid ... just an intelligent person acting like a jerk.

Will be interesting to see how severe the penalties are.

>misleading advertising
Do you know difference between materially misleading and a mere puff?

I think we can now see why general council resigned. Seems it is pretty indefensible not just in IMHO.

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1487 on: February 26, 2019, 12:14:34 PM »
This was not material information. The 500k was already public knowledge. This was a celebration of Tesla, it had no impact on the market.  This is a big nothing. Hopefully the court will confirm it.
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1488 on: February 26, 2019, 01:21:58 PM »
It really doesn't matter tho. The tsunami of Model 3 is happening world wide. Battery breakthroughs are on the horizon. Tesla is now profitable and still growing. Any SEC induced drop in the stock price is just a temporary discount. The EV revolution is happening. The fossil fuel shills will lose, at least the Tesla battle.
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1489 on: February 26, 2019, 04:36:32 PM »
Tesla Gigafactory 3 foundation prep underway as China mobilizes its workforce


https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-gigafactory-3-china-update-pile-drivers/

Quote
A recent video taken of Gigafactory 3 in China has revealed that notable areas of Tesla’s sprawling 864,885-square meter site are now abuzz with activity. As could be seen in the site’s footage, numerous pile drivers are in operation, workers and heavy machinery are moving land, and the first structures in the area are being set up.
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1490 on: February 26, 2019, 07:50:41 PM »
When did it become contemptuous to repeat publicly available information?  The SEC reaction moved the stock price more than Elon’s tweet did.

Quote
Elon Musk (@elonmusk) 2/25/19, 9:08 PM
 SEC forgot to read Tesla earnings transcript, which clearly states 350k to 500k. How embarrassing …
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1100215984713957376

    ——-
Quote
< Some thoughts: SEC filed for contempt for the court because the Tweet was not pre-filtered despite having potential to move the markets. Even if the tweet did not state anything wrong, it was clearly not pre-filtered and thus the SEC is technically right.
https://twitter.com/teslaparatodos/status/1100210012406849537

<< But it didn’t move the markets and the SEC complaint did.... where is the enforcement committee that protects the small investor from the SEC Enforcement committee???

Elon Musk (@elonmusk) 2/26/19, 7:25 AM
Exactly. This has now happened several times. Something is broken with SEC oversight.
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1100371207491248128

To the first image below, Musk replied, “Exactly.”
Second image: from the Q4 call transcript
Third image: from the Q4 shareholder letter
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1491 on: February 26, 2019, 08:42:16 PM »
It was clearly not pre-filtered, end of story. If you settle with the SEC you should be smart enough not to  provoke them by clearly violating the settlement. I wish Musk could overcome his wounded pride in this case.

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1492 on: February 26, 2019, 10:21:22 PM »
It was clearly not pre-filtered, end of story. If you settle with the SEC you should be smart enough not to  provoke them by clearly violating the settlement. I wish Musk could overcome his wounded pride in this case.

I think the exact settlement isn't that all his tweets need to be pre filtered, it's only those that could be seen as holding information that could reasonably be expected to move stock. 
He's clearly dancing a fine line, but his tweet was repeating something he had already said a few weeks earlier and so I think he'll get away with it.

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1493 on: February 27, 2019, 12:32:55 AM »
I think the exact settlement isn't that all his tweets need to be pre filtered, it's only those that could be seen as holding information that could reasonably be expected to move stock. 
He's clearly dancing a fine line, but his tweet was repeating something he had already said a few weeks earlier and so I think he'll get away with it.

It is easy with hindsight and knowledge of second tweet to see that there was no update to the information. However in the 4.5 hours before the correction, it would be easy for an investor to believe this wasn't the same info being repeated but was an update and an upgrade to the production forecast. This has just got to be viewed as stock price sensitive information.

The first tweet is clearly wrong and this also shows there was no review of the sensitive information tweet.


If it is something he can get away with, why did general counsel resign the following day? Looks to me like the only way general counsel could see of getting it through to Musk that it was indefensible and he had to start to showing respect to authorities was to resign because nothing else was working to achieve that effect. If resignation isn't over this, then it would be a remarkable timing co-incidence, don't you think?

Perhaps Tesla might be better off without Musk in charge. So maybe some good for Tesla will come out of it.

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1494 on: February 27, 2019, 01:23:25 PM »
Perhaps Tesla might be better off without Musk in charge. So maybe some good for Tesla will come out of it.

i think that's how i started to post in this thread and which IMO is the entire point. good nice products but not seriously managed.

only that i'd leave the "perhaps" out entirely or even replace it with a "certainly"

have to add that this applies to the current situation only while he was the exactly right guy to boost tesla to it's current impact on e-mobility.

each and everyone at its/his time, applies to most things and persons and one definition of what is a wise person is to know when to let go, step down, shut up and knowing ones own limits and fallacies.

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1495 on: February 27, 2019, 01:51:22 PM »
If Elon leaves Tesla, he will be replaced by someone who will milk Tesla for every last cent of profit instead of investing that profit into the growth of Tesla's mission. Probably great for share holders in the short term, but Tesla's mission would be over, and so would be the leader of the transition away from fossil fuels that could save our world.

Corporate Tesla would be fine, Tesla as a force of change away from fossil fuels would be gone.
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1496 on: February 27, 2019, 01:58:25 PM »
Elon has changed his Twitter handle and avatar.  And announced (apparently) a Tesla news announcement happening Thursday 2pm California time.
Or thereabouts. (Elon time…. ;) ;D )

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1100646870601220098
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1497 on: February 27, 2019, 02:53:44 PM »
A couple recent interesting Musk progress tweets that indirectly reference Tesla:

Quote
< any new updates to line-storm?  [the faster-better-cheaper tunnel boring machine TBC is building]

Elon Musk (@elonmusk) 2/26/19, 8:38 AM
 Maybe active in a month or so. Focus right now is getting to high speed, tight follow distance in test tunnel.
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1100389637615280128

Quote
< Could you tell, how many people working now at Raptor [Starship engine] development, except you? If it’s not classified of course.

Elon Tusk (@elonmusk) 2/26/19, 3:34 PM
Rest of SpaceX propulsion still very active, so only ~50 full-time equivalent people right now. That will grow a lot as we enter production. It’s 10X harder (at least) to design engine production system than engine. In automotive, 100X harder.
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1100494266533433344
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1498 on: February 27, 2019, 05:28:13 PM »
Elon has changed his Twitter handle and avatar.  And announced (apparently) a Tesla news announcement happening Thursday 2pm California time.
Or thereabouts. (Elon time…. ;) ;D )

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1100646870601220098

Possible clue: 2pm PT is after market close, and Tesla is due to repay a $920 million convertible bond a day later.
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1499 on: February 28, 2019, 01:38:19 AM »
Last Updated: Feb 25, 2019 7:59 p.m. EST Delayed quote

TSLA $288.00

Went as low as $282

Crashed from $298 to $284 is 2 minutes @ 6:09 PM EST.

https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/tsla

Yep, Dunning-Krugar :)

Shares plunge after SECs filing becomes known - before the news hit the newspapers or the online news.


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-02-25/elon-musk-faces-u-s-contempt-claim-for-violating-sec-accord

Now back up to $315 so maybe the market has decided contempt case is unimportant?