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Jim Hunt

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1500 on: February 28, 2019, 08:31:55 AM »
Yep, Dunning-Krugar :)

At the risk of being labelled "pedantic", shouldn't that be Dunning-Kruger?

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BeeKnees

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1501 on: February 28, 2019, 08:53:01 AM »
It doesn't matter now. The issue is that the announcement triggered by Musk's actions caused the market (all things being equal at the time) to fall dramatically.

Musk will defend his tweet by saying it was information that was already public (even though he had to later clarify it) and that it had almost no affect on share price.  His claim will be that it was the SEC going public that impacted the price of shares and probably argue that they should've sought clarification before doing so to ensure their actions didnt unnecessarily affect investors.

Ultimately it will be for a judge to decide but my feeling at the moment is still that Musk will get told he is a very naughty boy and any consequences will be minor.  I suspect the market have come to the same conclusion.

crandles

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1502 on: February 28, 2019, 06:56:49 PM »

It doesn't matter now. The issue is that the announcement triggered by Musk's actions caused the market (all things being equal at the time) to fall dramatically.

The most critical fact is this: People, real people, and investor groups who sold then did lose real Money as a result.

Those who were "triggered to sell" their shares then , fearing the price would likely continue to fall further no longer own those shares. If it didn't happen in the first place they would still own those shares (all things being equal - and they can personally give evidence under Oath to the SEC / Courts about that specific decision to sell).

Huh?
Why would upgraded forecasts of production cause people to sell? Surely it would cause them to buy?

Almost sounds like you are complaining about the SEC annoucement that Musk is to be pursued for contempt is causing the downward spike. I doubt you mean that and if anyone thinks that is more serious than Musk tweet, well sorry I don't agree. If they are pursuing the contempt charge then it should be announced and it is up to the market to consider how much to move.

The problem is someone seeing the tweet and thinking it is an upgrade to production data, buys the shares then finds out it isn't an upgrade to production data. Such a person has a right to be annoyed. I don't this is many people if it was in after hours trading. Nevertheless there is a process problem with the tweet not being reviewed.

GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1503 on: February 28, 2019, 08:10:54 PM »
The Musk's A Fraud "conspiracy theory" is finally mainstream. CNBC have been super Tesla cheerleaders, but they don't want to be caught totally flat footed.

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2019/02/27/tesla-faces-some-money-woes-with-a-nearly-1-billion-debt-payment-due-friday.html
big time oops

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1504 on: February 28, 2019, 08:17:10 PM »
Elon appears to be at his most desperate, so we may be about to seen the unveiling of the most absurd concept yet (overtaking the pickup which can hold a normal pickup).

Anyone want to guess what we are in store for? I just hope it is beyond belief, 11/10 ridiculous, full-blown-shark-jumping MADNESS!  :P
big time oops

jai mitchell

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1505 on: February 28, 2019, 09:46:35 PM »
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/28/tesla-suspends-online-orders-ahead-of-announcement-redirects-website.html

Tesla suspends orders on website ahead of 5 pm ET (Today Thursday 28th) announcement

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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1506 on: February 28, 2019, 10:15:10 PM »
What news will Tesla announce today at 2pm California time?  Fans are most fervently hoping for the availability of the Standard Range Model 3 (which, interestingly, was recently removed from the website order page...), and the date of the Model Y reveal.  An announcement that cars being shipped now have Hardware Version 3 (ready for future full self-driving) is also possible.

Financial stuff:
“We have sufficient cash on hand to comfortably settle in cash our convertible bond that will mature in March 2019.”.
- Tesla Fourth Quarter & Full Year 2018 Update

Wall Street keeps the faith on Tesla despite Musk, SEC tiff
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/wall-street-keeps-the-faith-on-tesla-despite-musk-sec-tiff-2019-02-26

Tesla is lining up about $2 billion in loans for Shanghai Gigafactory, analyst report says
Quote
According to JL Warren, which also tracks Chinese companies listed in the U.S., about $500 million (3.3 billion yuan) of Tesla's new financing should apply to the first stage of the Shanghai Gigafactory build, with the total project loan amounting to about $2 billion.

Musk said in the fourth-quarter earnings call that Tesla would need "something in the order of $0.5 billion in CapEx to get to the 3,000 vehicle rate in Shanghai."

JL Warren said the first stage of financing will likely have a 3.9 percent interest rate, below the People's Bank of China benchmark rate of 4.35 percent
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2019/02/28/tesla-lining-up-about-2-billion-in-loans-for-shanghai-gigafactory.html

According to internal documents $TSLA is planning completion of the stamping, body assembly, painting and final assembly at GF3 by Sept 2019.
Tesla’s first production facilities at Shanghai Gigafactory slated to be finished by September
http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1140250.shtml

——
Tesla is starting to push software to work with new Autopilot Hardware 3
https://electrek.co/2019/02/28/tesla-is-starting-to-push-software-to-work-with-new-autopilot-hardware-3/

Tesla has now registered over 300,000 Model 3 VINs. The recent batches are for the North American market (for quicker delivery as we approach the end of Q1).
Quote
Model 3 VINs (@Model3VINs) 2/28/19, 10:34 AM
#Tesla registered 6,870 new #Model3 VINs. ~0% estimated to be dual motor. ~7% estimated to be International. Highest VIN is 302757. …
https://twitter.com/model3vins/status/1101143537159008267

——-
Might this be the rumored collaboration?
 Mercedes-Benz EQC spotted mysteriously charging at Tesla destination charger
https://www.teslarati.com/mercedes-benz-eqc-tesla-destination-charger/

Previously:
Tesla and Mercedes-Benz have been holding ‘talks’ about collaborating again, says Daimler CEO
https://electrek.co/2019/02/06/tesla-mercedes-benz-holding-talks-collaboration-daimler-ceo/

——-
They are not really interested in going green. But, they like green cars. It’s a start.
Three in four U.S. drivers believe ‘EVs are the future of driving,’ survey says
https://electrek.co/2019/02/27/survey-drivers-evs-future/

Quote
Vincent (@vincent13031925) 2/27/19, 5:11 PM
My buddy was planning to purchase a Honda Civic Type-R. I gave him a test drive of my @Tesla Model 3(around 10 days ago).
He placed the order before getting off my Model 3 ;D ;D ;D
And his White #Model3 arrived today!
Ps. Testing driving a #Tesla is very dangerous
https://twitter.com/vincent13031925/status/1100881183359942656
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Jim Hunt

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1507 on: February 28, 2019, 10:31:34 PM »
Tesla suspends orders on website ahead of 5 pm ET (Today Thursday 28th) announcement

My own rather idiosyncratic take on Elon's teaser tweet:

https://twitter.com/V2gUK/status/1101225053868429312
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1508 on: February 28, 2019, 10:59:43 PM »
Elon has changed his Twitter profile pic to a Model 3.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1509 on: February 28, 2019, 11:04:53 PM »
And the Model 3 Standard Range is here.  Waiting for an announcement or press release.

Edit:
Tesla finally launches base Model 3 for $35,000 with shorter range and new interior - Electrek
https://electrek.co/2019/02/28/tesla-model-3-standard-battery-interior/
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oren

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1510 on: February 28, 2019, 11:06:42 PM »
$35k Model 3 is available to purchase, with delivery in 2-4 weeks.
Yay I guessed correctly.

Jim Hunt

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1511 on: February 28, 2019, 11:19:25 PM »
Yay I guessed correctly.

Whereas my fantasy fiction didn't work out!

However the "bonus new model" did, if viewed through extremely pink spectacles :)

https://twitter.com/V2gUK/status/1101247678262976513
« Last Edit: February 28, 2019, 11:29:09 PM by Jim Hunt »
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1512 on: February 28, 2019, 11:19:51 PM »
Tesla’s promised $35,000 Model 3 is finally here - The Verge
Quote
The Standard Range base model will start at $35,000, offers a top speed of 130mph and can go from 0 to 60mph in 5.6 seconds. A second version called “Standard Range Plus” will be available for $37,000 with 240 miles of range, a top speed of 140mph, and will go from 0 to 60mph in 5.3 seconds. The Standard Range Plus model will also come with “premium interior features,” according to Tesla.

The new versions of the Model 3 are available to order online now, and in fact, that’s now the only way people will be able to buy Tesla’s cars. The company says it is shifting all sales worldwide to online only, so you’ll no longer be able to buy a car in one of the company’s stores. By moving all sales online, Tesla says it will be able to lower the price of its cars by 6 percent, which is how it was able to finally get to the $35,000 price point. ...
https://www.theverge.com/2019/2/28/18245165/tesla-model-3-price-lower-cost-elon-musk-news
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oren

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1513 on: February 28, 2019, 11:21:09 PM »
Plus many other option changes and price reductions if I am not mistaken.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1514 on: February 28, 2019, 11:28:08 PM »
$35k Model 3 is available to purchase, with delivery in 2-4 weeks.
Yay I guessed correctly.

I wasn’t expecting this until late Q2, maybe Q3.  Elon is getting better about tempering his “aspirational” dates — at least publicly! :D

Quote
Elon Musk -- Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer

... So -- yes, we expect to introduce the standard range Model 3 sometime probably the middle of this year is a rough guess. And we're working hard to improve our costs of production, our overhead costs, our fixed costs, just costs in general. I think this past year, while extremely difficult, has driven us to a high level of financial discipline.
- Q4 financial call transcript.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1515 on: February 28, 2019, 11:44:49 PM »
Tesla says 'Automatic driving on city streets' including responding to traffic lights/stop signs coming this year
Quote
Tesla’s AP options for the Model 3 now state the following, bold emphasis mine:

Full Self-Driving Capability

Navigate on Autopilot: automatic driving from highway on-ramp to off-ramp including interchanges and overtaking slower cars.
Autopark: both parallel and perpendicular spaces.
Summon: your parked car will come find you anywhere in a parking lot. Really.

Coming later this year:

Recognize and respond to traffic lights and stop signs.
Automatic driving on city streets.


We’ve heard that advanced summon is already in wider testing so that should be a software update in the coming weeks.

The new pricing scheme works like this: Current AP will be $3,000 if purchased with car or $4,000 after. Full Self driving will be a $5,000 with the purchase of the car and a whopping $7,000 after.

The monster caveat:

”The currently enabled features require active driver supervision and do not make the vehicle autonomous. The activation and use of these features are dependent on achieving reliability far in excess of human drivers as demonstrated by billions of miles of experience, as well as regulatory approval, which may take longer in some jurisdictions. As these self-driving features evolve, your car will be continuously upgraded through over-the-air software updates.”
https://electrek.co/2019/02/28/automatic-driving-city-stop-signs/
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crandles

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1516 on: March 01, 2019, 12:52:19 AM »
Quote
Closing physical stores will allow the firm to cut costs by about 5%, savings it is using to reduce prices across its line-up of vehicles, chief executive Elon Musk said.

He declined to say how many people will lose their jobs as a result of the move, but said making the change was necessary as Tesla works toward its bigger goal of making electric cars mainstream.
...
 but expects to post a loss for the first three months of this year
...

But Tesla's admission it would not, as it had previously said, turn a profit this quarter, has spooked investors. As has admitting it needs to lay off workers and scale back its bricks-and-mortar presence in order to make good on a long-held promise is of concern.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47410636

Tesla share price down from $319.88 at close to $310.50

3% fall rather tame for 'investors spooked'?

Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1517 on: March 01, 2019, 01:19:03 AM »
Quote
...
Tesla share price down from $319.88 at close to $310.50

3% fall rather tame for 'investors spooked'?

Heh.  That’s barely a hiccup for TSLA stock. ;)

————-

Tesla:  oh by the way, we are also improving range and/or performance of existing Model 3 cars.  (OTA update.  For free. No service visit required. :) )

Tesla boosts Long Range Model 3 RWD to 325 miles per charge
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-model-3-long-range-325-miles/
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Archimid

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1518 on: March 01, 2019, 02:05:44 AM »
The stock price is meaningless now. There is a 2nd wave of Model 3s that will hit the street in even larger numbers than before. They will be everywhere soon. People that hasn't even heard of Tesla before will be asking questions about it. Every cool kid will have one.

Bonus: AP will be driven in roads and in ways that it has never been driven before. Big AP improvement coming.

The EV revolution is happening. The battery revolution is just starting.
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Rob Dekker

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1519 on: March 01, 2019, 07:39:07 AM »
The stock price is meaningless now. There is a 2nd wave of Model 3s that will hit the street in even larger numbers than before. They will be everywhere soon. People that hasn't even heard of Tesla before will be asking questions about it. Every cool kid will have one.

Bonus: AP will be driven in roads and in ways that it has never been driven before. Big AP improvement coming.

The EV revolution is happening. The battery revolution is just starting.

Twenty years ago I promised myself that each car I would buy would cut its fuel usage in half.
I went from a Ford 150 pick-up, to a Volvo to a Camry hybrid, and now I will go all electric.

I will buy a Tesla in the next couple of months, and I'm really looking forward to never pump (fossil fuel) gasoline again.
This is our planet. This is our time.
Let's not waste either.

Rob Dekker

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1520 on: March 01, 2019, 08:04:40 AM »
A $35,000 Tesla and how and why we got there :

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Let's not waste either.

RikW

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1521 on: March 01, 2019, 01:23:58 PM »
The stock price is meaningless now. There is a 2nd wave of Model 3s that will hit the street in even larger numbers than before. They will be everywhere soon. People that hasn't even heard of Tesla before will be asking questions about it. Every cool kid will have one.

Bonus: AP will be driven in roads and in ways that it has never been driven before. Big AP improvement coming.

The EV revolution is happening. The battery revolution is just starting.

That's not totally true. Companies go mostly bankrupt for 1 reason, namely a lack of enough money to pay the bills. When the stocks go down far enough - which can happen to almost all companies just because of rumours/lack of faith - Tesla/Musk will be in trouble because of the way they are financed.

rboyd

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1522 on: March 01, 2019, 02:11:02 PM »
The EV revolution is happening, but that doesn't mean that Tesla cannot get into severe financial difficulties. This announcement could be driven by a lack of demand for the higher priced models (perhaps eaten up all the early adopter demand), and Tesla's window of opportunity is quickly closing with other manufacturers beginning to get their act together. Losing the Consumer Reports recommendation for the Model 3 certainly does not help.

The share price is very important, as it affects how the company can raise money - equity versus debt, and whether they can reduce the interest rate of debt issues through offering convertible bonds. A big red flag would be if they had to raise cash through equity at a deep discount, or through convertibles with a low exchange share price.

I am not saying that they can't make it, but it is most definitely not a foregone conclusion. In the meantime the EV revolution is very much happening in China.

https://www.consumerreports.org/car-reliability-owner-satisfaction/tesla-model-3-loses-cr-recommendation-over-reliability-issues/

https://cleantechnica.com/2019/02/24/china-electric-vehicle-sales-jump-175-up-to-4-8-of-auto-market-in-january/

Archimid

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1523 on: March 01, 2019, 02:23:37 PM »
Closing down most Tesla stores is not BAU. Think of all the energy and emissions that will be saved by not having lavish stores. 

The buying transaction no longer requires large energy consuming buildings filled with people that drove there to work, buy or simply look. It only requires the small amount of energy that the online transaction consumes.

It is similar for delivery. There is a significant amount of energy spent delivering the car, but it is minimized because most of the route is done by highly efficient rail or trucks. There are also no trips necesary from the new owners.

This can be generalized to every product we buy. If all commercial transactions were made online commerce would become more efficient.
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Archimid

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1524 on: March 01, 2019, 02:28:06 PM »
 If you want profits you raise prices and reap the profits. The cost is loss of customers and decelerated production and growth.

If you want growth you cut prices and accelerate production at the cost of short term profits.

Tesla's mission is to accelerate the advent of sustainable transport. They can't do it fast enough but by god they are trying. Go Tesla!
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rboyd

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1525 on: March 01, 2019, 03:04:11 PM »
All of Tesla's current actions (price cuts to support demand, lay-offs and store closures to reduce costs) are what you would expect from a cash-strapped organization that is struggling to be profitable/solvent. If there was still demand for the higher priced models they wouldn't be offering the cheaper version yet when it will make them unprofitable again.

Quote
Musk also backed off of earlier guidance that the company would be profitable in all future quarters. Because of the moves, it will lose money in the first quarter and “likely” be profitable in the second, he said.

https://business.financialpost.com/pmn/transportation-business-pmn/autos-transportation-business-pmn/tesla-to-close-stores-take-orders-for-a-35000-model-3

Archimid

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1526 on: March 01, 2019, 03:46:27 PM »
That or an organization maximizing growth and minimizing costs to grow at an efficient maximum speed.
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oren

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1527 on: March 01, 2019, 03:53:03 PM »
Quote
The demand for - the demand for Model 3 is insanely high. The inhibitor is affordability. It's just like people literally don't have the money to buy the car. It's got nothing to do with desire. They just don't have enough money in their bank account. If the car can be made more affordable, the demand is extraordinary.

I think the reality is much simpler, as explained in the Q4 call transcript above. There is a lot of demand for Tesla cars, BUT at a lower price point, once the early adopter well-to-do crowd has been satisfied. They know it and have been striving for months to cut manufacturing costs and all other costs, in order to enable them to reduce prices and still remain profitable. No more free supercharging, no more free car giveaways in the referral program. And yes it makes sense to close expensive retail locations in malls, which were necessary to generate interest and brand recognition when Tesla was unknown, but are now probably a major cost item.
They are (finally) positioning the product line for the longer haul. The Model 3 pricing makes very much sense (except perhaps the software options which I expect to become cheaper as time goes by), with reasonable price gaps encouraging buyers to stretch as much as they can towards the higher variants. I strongly doubt the new product offering is sold at a loss, though obviously they could have milked a higher profit per unit off the remaining buyers who are not so price-sensitive. But they chose instead the much better strategy of moving ahead quickly and maximizing their production capability in the process, leaving a much more difficult landscape for the upcoming competition who can't seem to make profitable EVs yet, and who are also wary of cannibalizing their ICE cars and therefore moving very cautiously.
The next move should be the unveiling of the Model Y. I hope they avoid taking reservations for it, except perhaps for the higher-priced variants in the US, as the reservations don't give any advantage to potential buyers except during the very early ramp-up.

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1528 on: March 01, 2019, 07:19:55 PM »
Closing down most Tesla stores is not BAU. Think of all the energy and emissions that will be saved by not having lavish stores. 

The buying transaction no longer requires large energy consuming buildings filled with people that drove there to work, buy or simply look. It only requires the small amount of energy that the online transaction consumes.

It is similar for delivery. There is a significant amount of energy spent delivering the car, but it is minimized because most of the route is done by highly efficient rail or trucks. There are also no trips necesary from the new owners.

This can be generalized to every product we buy. If all commercial transactions were made online commerce would become more efficient.

Yeah. You're right. When I think of sustainability I think of ecommerce companies like Amazon.

<snip, cut the snark or I'm putting you on moderation; N.>
« Last Edit: March 01, 2019, 07:33:29 PM by Neven »

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1529 on: March 01, 2019, 11:13:02 PM »
Reality check. 

Tesla pays $920 million convertible bond obligation in cash

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/01/tesla-pays-off-920-million-for-convertible-bond-obligation-in-cash.html

Tesla is still here and it is still growing.
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zizek

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1530 on: March 02, 2019, 12:21:34 AM »
Demand drop off, Massive layoffs, store closures, and liquidating inventory. A "growing" company.

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1531 on: March 02, 2019, 12:34:01 AM »
Production is increasing at the same time that cost and prices are reduced.

If prices where reduced  and production was reduced I would worry.  For now, it seems like buying opportunities are presenting themselves.
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magnamentis

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1532 on: March 02, 2019, 12:36:55 AM »
quite a good resume, considering all/most major topics as to the situation, site translation for those who are really interested should be no issue nowadays ;)

https://www.auto-motor-und-sport.de/neuheiten/tesla-schliesst-stores/
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1533 on: March 02, 2019, 12:53:39 AM »
Magnamentis, this article has wrong information on prices and seems to be outdated by one month, even though the discussion on store closures is up to date.

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1534 on: March 02, 2019, 01:01:02 AM »
Magnamentis, this article has wrong information on prices and seems to be outdated by one month, even though the discussion on store closures is up to date.

as to pricing i dunno, europeans open mix up things when it comes to conversion and don't forget that in europe prices are also V.A.T. included while in the U.S. and CND this is not always or not often the case which leads to a lot of confusion.

as to the rest and after following this thread each day i found many things i found here quite well resumed but however, just thought to provide a read from a renown european source while most of the stuff we get fed here is from the americas.

thanks for the hint perhaps the VAT thingy is the reason or somethings, dunno, article however is from today, or perhaps the guy was lazy and simply put everthing into it that he gathered last month ;) ;)

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1535 on: March 02, 2019, 03:00:32 AM »

This can be generalized to every product we buy. If all commercial transactions were made online commerce would become more efficient.

Maybe but what about all the extra packaging they add an extra box and packaging when they ship items to your home so the product box doesn't arrive damaged. How dumb is that.

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1536 on: March 02, 2019, 09:16:48 AM »
Perhaps slightly off topic, but the Falcon has just landed after SpaceX's apparently successful launch of the unmanned (apart from Ripley) Crew Dragon capsule:

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1537 on: March 02, 2019, 09:48:11 AM »
SpaceX thread is here.
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1538 on: March 02, 2019, 09:54:51 AM »
SpaceX thread is here.

Sure, but it does at least provide some anecdotal evidence that Mr Musk has a reasonable track record when it comes to "executing" his pet projects.

Does the space show qualify as "glorious" in the context of this thread though?
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1539 on: March 02, 2019, 10:10:04 AM »
I believe the argument is that none of Musk's companies have ever reported an annual profit, and that Musk isn't some Da Vinci-type genius who does all of it himself. Tesla wasn't his idea, for instance.
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Jim Hunt

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1540 on: March 02, 2019, 10:34:58 AM »
Tesla wasn't his idea, for instance.

Sure redux!

I just checked the Wikipedia article on "Tesla, Inc". For some strange reason it doesn't go right back to the beginning of the story, though the tZero does get a mention in the History of Tesla,_Inc.". Is that already covered somewhere in amongst the "political" threads on the ASIF that I've been ignoring for years?!

« Last Edit: March 03, 2019, 12:26:51 AM by Jim Hunt »
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1541 on: March 02, 2019, 11:53:43 AM »
A History Recap may be a helpful reminder again

First Post by Neven on this Topic

This thread is to be used for the most part to post articles that Tesla Inc. is either successfully implementing its business model, or that it's failing to do so. The Internet is full of tiresome discussions on this subject, so I'd appreciate it if you partake in them elsewhere. Post your evidence for either stance, and then exercise patience.

For a more general discussion on EVs and their future, usefulness and technological aspects, use the thread that was always meant for that: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....


Neven, please don't take Zizek out. We can handle a few angry voices around here.

I won't, but I want him to take his rants about the moral implications of Tesla/Musk elsewhere, like here or here.

This thread isn't about Tesla per se, but about whether Tesla is going to go bankrupt soon or not.


And then I read this thread. Sigmetnow has a particular knack for posting only positive news about Tesla. And obsessively.

That's the whole idea of this thread! How often do I need to repeat it?

[..]

Take the rants elsewhere (preferably a Green BAU thread) or create your own thread. I've been very clear about what this thread is about: Tesla's survival/demise. Not the consequences of its survival/demise, or the moral implications. Next rant will be snipped.

Enough with the general debates already! This is a forum full of threads, and if you can't find one to fit your general debate, then create one!

I have to sleep at night, and now there are too many off-topic rants, one after the other. But the next time I will delete every single one of them. I created this thread to discuss Tesla glory/failure. I want to see bull/bear links, op-eds, videos, whatever, and not too much personal opinion, let alone rants and insults.

This is going to play out for a while, so please, have some patience and stop this repetitive vicious cycle.

NASA completes certification of SpaceX Dragon Crew capsule; sets March 2 launch date for Demo-1 flight to International Space Station; will provide live coverage and updates.

Off topic. Nothing to do with Tesla, nothing to do with it's ultimate success or failure as per N. guidelines (?). Others talking about spaceX the same.


I agree, SpaceX stuff should go elsewhere, perhaps a new thread in the same location as astronomical news? It's off-topic here.



SpaceX thread is here.


"It's not Rocket Science!"   ;D

Jim Hunt

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1542 on: March 02, 2019, 12:42:13 PM »
A History Recap may be a helpful reminder again

Thanks very much Lurk.

Your Granny hadn't previously found the time to successfully suck those particular eggs ;)
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1543 on: March 02, 2019, 04:29:47 PM »
Here’s Everything That Just Went Down at Tesla
Elon Musk has fulfilled a decade-long goal with the $35,000 Model 3. There are dozens of changes to the company that came along with it.
https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2019-03-01/-35-000-model-3-and-everything-else-that-just-went-down-at-tesla

Tesla Offers Owners 50% Off Autopilot & Full Self-Driving
https://cleantechnica.com/2019/03/02/fire-sale-tesla-offers-owners-50-off-autopilot-full-self-driving/

Tesla Is Finally Building the Car It Always Promised, and Nobody’s Happy
https://slate.com/technology/2019/03/tesla-model-3-35k-elon-musk-ouch.html
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1544 on: March 02, 2019, 04:34:55 PM »
Tom Randall (@tsrandall) 3/1/19, 1:52 PM
This raises the level of difficulty for every major automaker preparing their big EV debuts. Tesla is now the #1 target, and if you’re trying to benchmark against a comparably priced Tesla, your job just got harder. …
https://twitter.com/tsrandall/status/1101555851125555200
- If you’re a brick-and-mortar retailer (or heavily invested in commercial real estate), this should be a wake-up call. If you don’t need stores to sell expensive cars by a relatively new brand, what *do* you need retail space for? …
- Another question: Tesla, which struggled last year to make volume cars, has just pulled a very long row of demand levers. Does that indicate slowing demand, a surge in supply capacity, a bit of both?
- I asked Musk about this on the call. He answered with the most detailed production forecast yet. He says Tesla will make between 420k and 600k cars, including 70k-100k Model S and X. Let’s take those huge #s with a with a grain of salt, but…
[Image below.]
- Musk’s new wager is that if Tesla focuses on nothing but the product, price and (he vows) service, the cars will sell themselves and no one will be able to catch up. It’s a super-lean sales model, and he’s taking a meat cleaver to everything that doesn’t serve those goals
- People will argue whether this is a brilliant strategic move, or an act of desperation. But I wouldn’t trust anyone who expresses certainty in how it all plays out


Quote
anonymous (@EricSteiman) 3/1/19, 4:31 PM
The more I let this $TSLA store news marinate, the more I like it. The stores were initially used to spread the word about Tesla and EVs in general. Today, the consumer is fairly well informed, and if word of mouth is successful, the 1B plus in savings will be huge.
https://twitter.com/ericsteiman/status/1101595879058870274

Here’s a Twitter thread with comments about buying a Tesla online or by phone.  Unless you like haggling with a dealer, it looks like a winning model:
https://twitter.com/teslabros/status/1101528955834826752


Tesla is betting that bricks-and-mortar stores are not the way forward.  Other companies agree.  Online sales are increasing, and the cost of physical stores is a sink on profit.  But like Amazon, Tesla already has a delivery model in place.

March 1, 2019: Gap, JCPenney, Victoria's Secret, Foot Locker: 465 store closures in 48 hours
https://www.foxbusiness.com/retail/gap-jcpenney-victorias-secret-foot-locker-465-stores-closures-in-48-hours

Quote
Tesla Driver (@m_xalher) 3/1/19, 11:13 AM
And keep in mind: They would *never* have done this unless their sales were already mostly online. They know it works already. P.S: We bought both our Teslas online, even though the Tesla Oslo shop is very close to where we live.
https://twitter.com/m_xalher/status/1101515851793121282

Quote
ValueAnalyst (@ValueAnalyst1) 3/1/19, 11:17 AM
 Exactly. I remember reading that 80-85% of orders were placed online, and I suspect much of the remaining 15-20% would have been online if that were the only option at the time. This will minimally impact demand, but the estimated cost savings of $1B+ per year is significant.
https://twitter.com/valueanalyst1/status/1101516818475335680

Tesla Adopts E-commerce Business Model, Exclusively
https://www.mediapost.com/publications/article/332621/tesla-adopts-ecommerce-business-model-exclusively.html

Irony: Tesla’s cost of fighting US car dealers to do business in their states is part of the $1B Tesla now saves with its decision to do away with its stores:
Tesla's move to close stores puts dealer franchise debate into spotlight
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/teslas-move-to-close-stores-puts-dealer-franchise-debate-into-spotlight-214547665.html

Edit: fixed link.
« Last Edit: March 02, 2019, 05:03:31 PM by Sigmetnow »
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1545 on: March 02, 2019, 04:38:16 PM »
VW admits Tesla has advantage with EV because they don’t have to protect gas car business
Quote
In an interesting and honest comment about their effort to go electric, VW CEO Herbert Diess said that Tesla has an important advantage over legacy automakers when it comes to electric vehicles; they don’t have to worry about protecting their gas-powered car business.

The fact that Tesla only sells all-electric vehicles and only worries about selling electric vehicles give them an important advantage.
Diess made the comment in an interview with Financial Times:
“I think Tesla is doing a good job. They don’t have to care about the legacy. They don’t have to care about the next generation of gasoline in motors and so they can really focus on the future. It’s an advantage.”

The CEO appears to be saying that while they see electric vehicles as the future, but they still have to worry about their legacy business, gas-powered cars, as they invest in electric vehicles.
https://electrek.co/2019/02/28/vw-admits-tesla-advantage-protect-gas-car-business/

Slowing demand for fossil-fuel cars is hurting EV giant BYD
https://qz.com/1560813/slowing-demand-for-fossil-fuel-cars-is-hurting-ev-giant-byd/

III. Incumbents’ Structural and Fiscal Shackles
http://tesla.dauger.com/disrupts/different.html#incumbentsshackles

Quote
Siberian Odyssey (@SiberianOdyssey) 3/1/19, 11:32 AM
The market is very worried today about 35k M3 margins. Meanwhile OEM were selling their $40-60K at a loss, in the hope to bring down production costs in the future. Now they don't know how to even...
https://twitter.com/siberianodyssey/status/1101520539502415873

U.S. auto sales fall in February on weak SUV demand
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-auto-sales/u-s-auto-sales-fall-in-february-on-weak-suv-demand-idUSKCN1QI4UW

How many car buyers are waiting for the Tesla Model Y (or another electric SUV)?  Millions.

Quote
Bored Elon Musk (@BoredElonMusk)2/27/19, 11:54 AM
Today must be the season finale of the simulation.
https://twitter.com/boredelonmusk/status/1100801235056115713
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1546 on: March 02, 2019, 04:58:12 PM »
Quote
The fact that Tesla only sells all-electric vehicles and only worries about selling electric vehicles give them an important advantage.

Since this is a German speaking i feel the need to translate this into plain English.

He is saying they can't adapt to a changing world. He is realizing that sleeping the last 20 years might have a very bad outcome for his company.

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1547 on: March 02, 2019, 08:14:29 PM »
Last ditch effort to keep head above water and prevent suppliers from pulling the plug.

Cut all possible costs, and reduce prices on all models (for the 3rd time in 60 days, lol).

Collect payment for vehicles promised in 2-4 weeks (Tesla website), and hope to deliver the vehicles in some point this summer (private* conference call).

It is pretty much the last possible effort to stay afloat. I guess leasing the Model 3 could be one more little bump.


Honestly though, I don't think this drastic price cut will really work. Word is out that Tesla is unreliable, and led by a volatile admitted yet unrepentant fraud.

The fanbois have their Teslas already. They are very resistant to quality and service problems, but even some of them are throwing in the towel.

My guess is that some new demand is there at the new lower prices, but not much. Another price drop wouldn't surprise me. Not sure what else Tesla can do if the inventory wont sell. Any ideas?
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1548 on: March 03, 2019, 12:25:27 AM »
For some strange reason [Wikipedia] doesn't go right back to the beginning of the [Tesla] story, though the tZero does get a mention.

For some strange reason a search of the entire ASIF reveals no mention of Alan Cocconi. Here's Tom Gage at TEDx Bermuda on the genesis of the tZero, amongst a variety of other things:



Quote
In December 2003, the Google founders were there. One of them said "Call Elon, he's got money".
« Last Edit: March 03, 2019, 12:31:51 AM by Jim Hunt »
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1549 on: March 03, 2019, 02:43:08 AM »
Average price reduction across models and markets, 20%. Does anyone know why cars get marked down 20% in less than 6 months? Is it due to strong demand? Let's hear the bull thesis on this one! I need a good laugh.

P.S. Please include reference to "supply constrained" or an explanation of which new factory lines have started production. Thank you in advance.

(For extra giggles, remember that Tesla's claimed gross margins in Q4 were 24%.)



 https://twitter.com/glbeaty/status/1101921395435622400
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