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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1700 on: March 22, 2019, 07:32:47 PM »
Tesla analyst Dan Ives of Wedbush reaffirms bullish stance after impressive Fremont and Gigafactory 1 visit
March 21, 2019
Quote
Tesla shares (NASDAQ:TSLA) might be facing headwinds in the market recently due to concerns over the company’s performance in the first quarter and Elon Musk’s ongoing issues with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), but a Wall Street analyst has argued that the electric car maker’s operations are doing better than expected.

Wedbush analyst Dan Ives, together with his peer Strecker Backe, recently took a tour of Tesla’s Fremont plant in California and the company’s Gigafactory 1 in Nevada. By the end of their visit and analysis, the two analysts doubled down on their bull case, partly due to the progress that the company has made with its battery and electric vehicle production.

A visit to Tesla’s Fremont factory will not be complete without a tour of the infamous tent housing an assembly line for the Model 3. While the sprung structure has remained polarizing and a constant target of ridicule from Tesla’s critics, Ives noted that the tent-based assembly line is actually performing very well, with processes in the location being robust and streamlined. “It was jaw-dropping in how efficient that process has now become in the tent. This is not a company that’s slowing down production,” Ives noted.

The Wedbush analysts were equally impressed by Tesla’s progress in its operations at Gigafactory 1, where it produces batteries and drive units for the Model 3. Ives wrote in a recent report to clients that based on what he has seen, Gigafactory 1’s current output will be able to support a steady production rate of 7,000 Model 3 per week, thanks to “more automation, robotics, data analysis, and streamlined capacity” at the site. ...
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-tsla-battery-automation-model-3-ramp-rivals/

Dan Ives is ranked #584 out of 5,249 analysts on TipRanks with a success rate of 62% and an average return of 6.8%.
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NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1701 on: March 22, 2019, 07:34:03 PM »
You are so wrong about everything. You prance around these forums acting like some sort of authority on manufacturing. But you are so consistently wrong it hurts.

Well to be on topic, Tesla is not just a car manufacturer. This is fact.  However the proffered "evidence" that Tesla is not more than a car company is... let's get this... Mitsubishi.

Let me see.

Mitsubishi, the company

Quote
Mitsubishi was established in 1870, two years after the Meiji Restoration, with shipping as its core business. Its diversification was mostly into related fields. It entered into coal-mining to gain the coal needed for ships, bought a shipbuilding yard from the government to repair the ships it used, founded an iron mill to supply iron to the shipbuilding yard, started a marine insurance business to cater for its shipping business, and so forth. Later, the managerial resources and technological capabilities acquired through the operation of shipbuilding were utilized to expand the business further into the manufacture of aircraft and equipment.

<sinip>

The merchant fleet entered into a period of diversification that would eventually result in the creation of three entities:
Mitsubishi Bank (now a part of the Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group) was founded in 1919. After its mergers with the Bank of Tokyo in 1996, and UFJ Holdings in 2004, this became Japan's largest bank.
Mitsubishi Corporation, founded in 1950, Japan's largest general trading company
Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, which includes these industrial companies: Mitsubishi Motors, the sixth-largest Japan-based car manufacturer.
Mitsubishi Atomic Industry, a nuclear power company.
Mitsubishi Chemical, the largest Japan-based chemicals company
Mitsubishi Hitachi Power Systems, a power generation division
Nikon Corporation, specializing in optics and imaging.

Right, so we were talking about Car companies which were set up to become more than just a car company.

Not a shipping company which became a global enterprise which just happens to manufacture vehicles as one of its heavy industry arms.

If we are going to compare Tesla with companies which actually are comparable, it would be nice to actually do so.

Yes Tesla does not manufacture the Panasonic cells.  It actually manufactures energy storage and delivery systems for vehicles, homes and businesses.

Which is not, in my very limited experience (it seems), the role of a car manufacturer.
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Neven

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1702 on: March 22, 2019, 11:27:57 PM »
Careful now, Off-topic Day is behind us...  :)
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Archimid

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1703 on: March 23, 2019, 03:27:52 AM »
Gigafactory 3 looking good.

I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1704 on: March 23, 2019, 04:13:28 AM »
Tesla is bringing back referral program to win Model Y and Roadster signed by Elon Musk
Each referral grants 1,000 miles of free Supercharging for the referral and the referee.
https://electrek.co/2019/03/21/tesla-referral-program-win-model-y-and-roadster-signed-elon-musk/

I forget:  Is it ending the referral program that proves Tesla is going bankrupt, and having one that means there is no demand?  Or, the other way around?  ::)
Bringing it back means demand is not as strong as Tesla would like it to be.

Fool! Demand is soooooo good, the servers crashed. Stop spreading FUD, oil-shill!
big time oops

GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1705 on: March 23, 2019, 04:14:19 AM »
No article, op-ed, tweet or video, BUT this is Tesla glory nonetheless:

A friend of mine in Holland ordered a Tesla Model 3 two weeks ago and just got an email that it would be delivered next week. That's fast!

HUGE backlog though  ;)
big time oops

oren

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1706 on: March 23, 2019, 08:44:08 AM »
No article, op-ed, tweet or video, BUT this is Tesla glory nonetheless:

A friend of mine in Holland ordered a Tesla Model 3 two weeks ago and just got an email that it would be delivered next week. That's fast!
It's Tesla glory but also potential failure. If lead time from order to overseas delivery is 3 weeks, it means Tesla probably does not have a backlog, and is dependent on a constant stream of new orders. If this stream should slow down financial trouble would quickly arrive. It's a significant risk and almost the only one that matters right now (all the SEC stuff and model Y "underwhelming" and other headlines are just noise).
The recent price cuts are to be seen in this light - a move meant to ensure that the order stream continues without faltering.
Note: Tesla does not yet offer the cheaper Model 3 options in Europe, nor does it yet offer a right-hand drive version for UK and Australia purposes, so there is still untapped demand waiting. But the big question is what happens when the pent-up demand is served, how strong is ongoing or "natural" demand and can it sustain Tesla until model Y starts shipping in fall 2020.
« Last Edit: March 23, 2019, 06:35:46 PM by oren »

gerontocrat

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1707 on: March 23, 2019, 01:41:54 PM »
How could Tesla survive let alone find Glory in a totally dysfunctional world and climate on steriods?

It cannot. Tesla is doomed, obviously!
It ain't necessarily so...

We Brits have made a speciality of turning failure into Glorious Defeat. Occasionally so do the Gringos  - "Remember the Alamo!!".

So TESLA's legacy may be that of glorious failure - beautiful vehicles produced for a world crumbling around us. The stuff of glorious legend for a dystopian future..
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Archimid

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1708 on: March 23, 2019, 03:23:35 PM »
Tesla Batteries Power This 500-Year-Old Cheese Farm

https://www.inverse.com/article/54291-winterdale-cheese-farm-tesla-batteries

Quote
On this cheese farm, Tesla “Powerwall” batteries store wind energy from that turbine and solar energy from the panels in the cow’s pasture. It all goes toward the production of 2 million liters of milk and 52 tons of cheese. It also charges a Tesla Model X, that’s used to deliver produce to customers.

I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1709 on: March 23, 2019, 05:18:33 PM »
No article, op-ed, tweet or video, BUT this is Tesla glory nonetheless:

A friend of mine in Holland ordered a Tesla Model 3 two weeks ago and just got an email that it would be delivered next week. That's fast!
It's Tesla glory but also potential failure. If lead time from order to overseas delivery is 3 weeks, it means Tesla probably does not have a backlog, and is dependent on a constant stream of new orders. If this stream should slow down financial trouble would quickly arrive. It's a significant risk and almost the only one that matters right now (all the SEC stuff and model Y "underwhelming" and other headlines are just noise).
The recent price cuts are to be seen in this light - a move meant to ensure that the order stream continues without faltering.
Note: Tesla does yet offer the cheaper Model 3 options in Europe, nor does it yet offer a right-hand drive version for UK and Australia purposes, so there is still untapped demand waiting. But the big question is what happens when the pent-up demand is served, how strong is ongoing or "natural" demand and can it sustain Tesla until model Y starts shipping in fall 2020.

Better answer: Tesla knew demand would ramp in Europe, no question, and so they shipped hundreds of “unassigned” cars (the number of different versions of the Model 3 to choose from is small) to have the most popular versions on hand as ‘Tesla Fever’ takes off.  This also explains the puzzling “VIN gap” in the Bloomberg Model 3 Tracker. 

The Model 3 is the top-selling EV in Europe, breaking all records!  The only “demand problem” is that Tesla can’t make cars fast enough to supply that demand.

Quote
ValueAnalyst (@ValueAnalyst1)3/19/19, 1:27 PM
@tsrandall, does your "total cars" estimate include or exclude the ~50,000 VIN gap in the Method 2 Spotted VINs Model?

Tom Randall (@tsrandall) 3/19/19, 1:39 PM
@ValueAnalyst1 We automatically exclude gaps over a certain size, so most of that range isn't reflected in our estimates. Today we received some VINs that fall into the big gap (breaking it into several smaller excluded gaps). Interestingly, they're owners from Europe, not China
https://twitter.com/tsrandall/status/1108060504377970694
« Last Edit: March 23, 2019, 05:28:10 PM by Sigmetnow »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1710 on: March 23, 2019, 05:24:26 PM »
Gigafactory 3 looking good.



Have to enlarge that picture to see the people.  The building is huge!
Edit:  And this phase is only 1/3 of the eventual gigafactory.

The construction company is well known. They know what they are doing.
https://twitter.com/vincent13031925/status/1109198935623503873
« Last Edit: March 23, 2019, 05:40:46 PM by Sigmetnow »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1711 on: March 23, 2019, 05:42:24 PM »
Quote
Model 3 VINs (@Model3VINs) 3/23/19, 12:26 PM
#Tesla registered 1,409 new #Model3 VINs. ~35% estimated to be dual motor. ~0% estimated to be International. Highest VIN is 329895.
https://twitter.com/model3vins/status/1109491595022204928

Q1-2019 VINs registered to date: 135,980  (92,024 were for EU/China vehicles)
Q4-2018 total was: 75,605
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1712 on: March 23, 2019, 06:11:22 PM »
Quote
Vincent (@vincent13031925) 3/23/19, 12:13 PM
[Bear]: Wow , now #Tesla is also hiding all the “no demand” vehicles in public high school parking lot, demand cliff!!

Reality: Able to see 6 Tesla in just a corner of the Yorba Linda High School parking (more on the other side), people love @Tesla.
https://twitter.com/vincent13031925/status/1109488378053971970
At link: video of Teslas parked here and there among other cars in a crowded parking lot.
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GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1713 on: March 23, 2019, 06:33:31 PM »

The recent price cuts are to be seen in this light - a move meant to ensure that the order stream continues without faltering.

Help me with the math here....(word problems give me a lot of trouble):


Tesla sells cars at a 20% gross margin. Then they can't find buyers once the cultists have their cars. So they reduce their prices 20%. What is the new gross margin?
big time oops

GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1714 on: March 23, 2019, 06:43:56 PM »
The only “demand problem” is that Tesla can’t make cars fast enough to supply that demand.

WOW. Just WOW.


That's why they have reduced the prices of the cars an average of 20% in the last six months...cuz demand is so strong they are supply constrained.

You totally expose yourself as a willing shill for any pro-Tesla argument without a care for its logical efficacy.

If what you are saying is actually true (which of course it isnt), Tesla is the most idiotically run business in history!!!! Lowering prices drastically even though there is surplus demand would be criminal stupidity.

WOW.

big time oops

Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1715 on: March 23, 2019, 07:32:57 PM »
This is only tangentially about Tesla, but it involves a huge step-change in the German automotive industry that took place this week, which could be said was in large part due to Tesla’s successful market invasion.  Please read about it in the Cars thread:

THIS WEEK THE ELECTRIC VEHICLE BECAME THE ENDGAME
Quote
Something really important happened this week: the German carmakers agreed that for the coming ten years, they will put all their cards on electric vehicles and they will not be shy about saying so anymore.
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,438.msg192674.html#msg192674
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magnamentis

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1716 on: March 23, 2019, 07:53:49 PM »
How could Tesla survive let alone find Glory in a totally dysfunctional world and climate on steriods?

It cannot. Tesla is doomed, obviously!
It ain't necessarily so...

We Brits have made a speciality of turning failure into Glorious Defeat. Occasionally so do the Gringos  - "Remember the Alamo!!".

So TESLA's legacy may be that of glorious failure - beautiful vehicles produced for a world crumbling around us. The stuff of glorious legend for a dystopian future..

yeah but the once so glorious british car industry is basically non-existent other than with foreign owned brand-survival with very few exceptions and almost none on large scale.

as we know bentley is volkswagen owned, vauxhal has been opel's with a different logo for years and GM owned for decades, rolls-royce is bmw owned, rover has ceased to exist and so on.

since we are talking tesla = car manufacturer with all the industry-typical stuff involved, i predicted from day one that the brand and/or the know-how will be merged/purchased by a big player and tesla won't survive as an independent car manufacturer in it's current form.

this thread would have long ceased to be interesting if the tesla-cons wer able to admit that tesla plays a major role in a necessary and overdue process of traffic electrification and if tesla-pros were able to admit that the business model will  ultimately lead to a merger or a buy out at best or bankruptcy at worst.

this thread is basically a back and forth bickering between those who say glory because of the factuel contribution of tesla to the above mentioned important developement and the those who say fail because tesla is not managed properly and the slightest crisis of any kind will bring the company down as such.

both are right and that's the ridiculous thing here, two groups are head-banging over something that is obvious, only that one group cannot admit that the other group has a point and vice versa.

if the meaning of this thread is about whether tesla will survive, i say not, not as an independent company but eventually as a brand that will be bought-out.
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Neven

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1717 on: March 23, 2019, 08:14:08 PM »
Hey, I thought Off-Topic Day was yesterday! :D

I think I saw a Model 3 today for the first time in Graz, but I find it hard to tell them apart from Model S.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1718 on: March 23, 2019, 10:07:13 PM »
...I find it hard to tell them apart from Model S.

Me, too! ;D Check the door handles, the front fascia, and the lack of badging on the back (except “Dual Motor”).
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1719 on: March 23, 2019, 10:13:31 PM »
The only “demand problem” is that Tesla can’t make cars fast enough to supply that demand.

WOW. ...

That's why they have reduced the prices of the cars an average of 20% in the last six months...cuz demand is so strong they are supply constrained.

WOW

Ford cut the price of the Model T in half over 4 years, sales and production grew 10x
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rboyd

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1720 on: March 23, 2019, 11:20:13 PM »
This is only tangentially about Tesla, but it involves a huge step-change in the German automotive industry that took place this week, which could be said was in large part due to Tesla’s successful market invasion.  Please read about it in the Cars thread:

THIS WEEK THE ELECTRIC VEHICLE BECAME THE ENDGAME
Quote
Something really important happened this week: the German carmakers agreed that for the coming ten years, they will put all their cards on electric vehicles and they will not be shy about saying so anymore.
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,438.msg192674.html#msg192674

Lets remember that VW sells 40% of its cars, and BMW 50% of its cars in the Chinese market, and EV sales are rapidly growing there. The China car market is bigger than the USA. So that was definitely a factor as well.

b_lumenkraft

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1721 on: March 24, 2019, 07:28:32 AM »
If Tesla cars have the very best "technology" possible, then why is Elon Musk not sharing it with others

But he does Lurk. Link >> https://www.tesla.com/blog/all-our-patent-are-belong-you?redirect=no

oren

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1722 on: March 24, 2019, 09:12:22 AM »
Tesla has offered to share the supercharger network with other car manufacturers. None had taken up the offer yet. Surely the issue is having to share the cost of the network too, which I bet is humungous.

b_lumenkraft

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1723 on: March 24, 2019, 09:17:47 AM »
Should be possible in principle if your car does DC charging. You might have to have an adapter depending on the plug needed on your car. Not sure about that though, please correct me if i'm wrong.

But you can always charge at a non-tesla charger. So this is not a problem imho.

Neven

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1724 on: March 24, 2019, 09:52:21 AM »
OK, everyone, today is Removing Off-Topic Remarks Day!  :)

So, stay on topic!
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1725 on: March 24, 2019, 12:04:32 PM »
No, Wall Street — Tesla Has No Cash Or Liquidity Problem
March 23rd, 2019 by Michael Grinshpun
Quote
Diving Into Tesla Cash Flow, 2019 Obligations, Liquidity, & A Bit More
• Analysts seem to talk about Tesla’s “cash problem” often, especially leading up to the $920 million bond repayment and after the Model Y event.
• Tesla has access to so many sources of liquidity that the “cash problem” is a mythical problem.
• Moody’s maintains its junk rating on Tesla despite Tesla’s excellent liquidity and successful production targets.


Diving into the Numbers
So let us explore Tesla’s cash and sources of liquidity step by step and build an analysis. First, we start with Tesla’s current cash holdings. Tesla had $3.686 billion in cash at the end of Q4 2018, according to the most recent shareholder letter.

Next, we evaluate Tesla’s current cash flows. In Q3 and Q4 of 2018, Tesla was operationally cash flow positive and free cash flow positive, with an average operational cash flow of $1.313 billion per quarter. In 2019, perhaps some of this cash flow will be strained with lower revenues and margins from vehicle price cuts and demand shifts, rising operational expenses, and increasing inventories (including cars in transit). Personally, I view these challenges with skepticism, as Tesla recently stated to an analyst that it is selling every car it can make and Tesla has recently undertaken many cost-cutting moves, but let’s be conservative for this analysis and assume that the operational cash flow will be cut in half to $656.5 million per quarter or $2.626 billion in all of 2019 due to these headwinds.

Next, we move to other sources of liquidity. As of Q4 2018, Tesla had $1.54 billion borrowed from its asset-backed credit agreement (read: credit card). On March 6, 2019, Tesla expanded the borrowing capacity of this credit agreement to $2.425 billion, leaving $885 million of borrowing capacity available to the company. Tesla also has a warehouse credit line, which allows the company to borrow against car leases. Tesla currently has $92 million borrowed from the warehouse line, leaving $1.08 billion in borrowing capacity left as Tesla leases more cars. Moreover, on March 1, Tesla secured a $521 million construction loan from Chinese banks for construction of Gigafactory 3 in China. Finally, another source of liquidity for Tesla is delaying supplier payments. A measure of how much Tesla can delay supplier payments is Days Payable Outstanding or DPO, which measures the average amount of time Tesla took to pay its suppliers after they delivered their products. DPO peaked in Q2 2018 at 82 days, and in Q4 2018, DPO was only 54 days.

If Tesla was in a cash crunch like it was in the first half of 2018 when Model 3 production couldn’t seem to pick up, it would extend its days payable outstanding. Let’s be conservative and assume that Tesla can only extended the DPO to 68 days from the current 54 (rather than all the way to the peak of 82), it could hold onto $870 million in additional cash. Between all the cash and sources of liquidity, Tesla has $9.668 billion available for 2019.

But what about debt payments and other obligations? Tesla made a $920 million bond payment on March 1 and has another $566 million bond payment due in November. Tesla also plans to spend $2.5 billion in capital expenditures in 2019 to buy equipment, land, construction, etc. That’s it. That is all of Tesla’s obligations that we need to include. All others, including accounts payable and such, are implicitly included as expenses in operational cash flows, which I consider above. The total obligations for 2019 are thus $3.986 billion.

When you put it all together into a graphic, it is immediately clear that Tesla has no liquidity problem whatsoever. The California company has $10.547 billion in cash and liquidity available for 2019, and only $3.986 billion in obligations for 2019. Diligent investors ought to ignore narratives about a lack of cash at Tesla spread by analysts, media prognosticators, and conspiracy theorists on twitter, especially if these claims are simply stated and not backed up by math as done here. ...
https://cleantechnica.com/2019/03/23/no-wall-street-tesla-has-no-cash-or-liquidity-problem-and-a-p-s-for-elon-musk/
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GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1726 on: March 24, 2019, 06:11:20 PM »
<snip, off-topic remark removed; N.>
« Last Edit: March 24, 2019, 11:51:51 PM by Neven »
big time oops

GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1727 on: March 24, 2019, 11:01:50 PM »
The only “demand problem” is that Tesla can’t make cars fast enough to supply that demand.

WOW. ...

That's why they have reduced the prices of the cars an average of 20% in the last six months...cuz demand is so strong they are supply constrained.

WOW

Ford cut the price of the Model T in half over 4 years, sales and production grew 10x

Damn, you really are special. And I'm not being coy. You have a special (albeit destructive) ability.

1) Do you think Ford had the "demand" to sell 200,000 model Ts for $900? Quite obviously not. That is why they lowered prices.

2)Why is Tesla currently claiming to be about to be raising prices according to your absurd theory that they are amidst so some or "step change" in manufacturing ability.?

2A) Why does Tesla employ more manufacturing ppl per car produced than every other car company?Is this some sort of secret ploy of the DREADKNAUGHT factory, which non cultist simply cannot comprehend?

<snip, off-topic snark removed. I'll let the rest stand because of the effort, but do try to post some more links again, please; N.>
« Last Edit: March 24, 2019, 11:53:57 PM by Neven »
big time oops

oren

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1728 on: March 25, 2019, 05:32:20 AM »
Competitor BMW just issued a report conducted by global consulting firm IHS Markit and based on new vehicle registrations from Feb. 2018 to Feb. 2019. BMW has 16 percent of plug-in vehicle market share in Europe, while Tesla tied for fifth place with Volvo, according to the study.

In its home market of Germany, BMW has 20 percent share with Tesla coming in at 3 percent. Germany is the largest car sales market in Europe, though it doesn’t top EV sales in the region.

The leading EV market in Europe has been Norway, which is showing another telling trend. BMW has nearly 77 percent of that market, while Tesla recently has seen a sales decline in the country. Norway has become the emblem for banning petroleum-fueled cars in the near future, with EVs making up nearly half of total new vehicle sales in the past year according to the IHS Markit report.
Note the report stops at Feb 2019, the exact point before Model 3 started bulk deliveries to European customers.

Registrations of new Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) vehicles fell significantly from January to February according to the Dominion Cross-Sell Report.

6,252 Teslas were registered with motor vehicle agencies in the 23 states covered by the report in February, compared to 23,310 in January and a monthly average of 13,000 to 17,000 in Q4.

The Jan. surge was expected, as TSLA sought to sell cars ahead of the 2018 tax credit shrink.

Dominion’s data does not yet reflect Tesla’s introduction of a $35,000 version of its Model 3 sedan, its lowest-price offering yet, which is likely to lift sales. Still, falling registration totals are a worrisome sign for the company.
While the US report focuses on Feb 2019, the exact point after Model 3 started shipping in large numbers to Europe and China.

These reports are trying to paint a bleak picture by showing biased data. I do not know Tesla's real sales/deliveries situation in Q1, it could be good or bad, but it's not lagging behind BMW and it won't be 1/3rd of Q4 numbers. It will probably be similar to Q4, with perhaps a bit of growth, less those cars that are in transit but not delivered due to longer shipping times compared to domestic deliveries.

Rob Dekker

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1729 on: March 25, 2019, 08:00:48 AM »
Sorry to disappoint the Tesla bears here on this forum.

Tomorrow, as I take ownership of a brand new Tesla Model S, Tesla will increase their glory with one more 2019 Q1 sale and delivery, and they will increase their cash flow also.

And I'm really looking forward to never have to pump fossil fuel again !
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Rob Dekker

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1730 on: March 25, 2019, 09:49:20 AM »
Quote
Note the report stops at Feb 2019, the exact point before Model 3 started bulk deliveries to European customers.

So what? It's an intentional conspiracy is it? Is this what you're claiming - the whole report is "biased" and/or "inaccurate" and/or "flawed data" ... planned to coincide with the long indicated tesla deliveries to Europe?

oren is right, Lurk.
Here is a report from February :

Tesla Model 3 Easily Outsold All Other EVs In Europe In February 2019

Tesla is already the top-selling BEV brand in Western Europe (see report for February) and the latest data provided by industry analyst Matthias Schmidt (schmidtmatthias.de) suggest that the Tesla Model 3 is the top-selling model.

In the last month, about 3,724 registrations of the Model 3 were counted, which is several hundred more than in the case of the second top car, the Renault ZOE. Biggest markets for Model 3 were Germany (959) and Norway (791).

https://insideevs.com/tesla-model-3-outsells-evs-europe/

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GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1731 on: March 25, 2019, 05:20:02 PM »
Sorry to disappoint the Tesla bears here on this forum.

Tomorrow, as I take ownership of a brand new Tesla Model S, Tesla will increase their glory with one more 2019 Q1 sale and delivery, and they will increase their cash flow also.

And I'm really looking forward to never have to pump fossil fuel again !

Buying a car from a company that is heading towards Chapter 7 is a huge leap of faith. I suggest you buy some $10 / Jan 2020 put options. This will act as insurance against the drastic price depreciation that would occur if Tesla goes under.

<snip, N.>

« Last Edit: March 26, 2019, 12:01:17 AM by Neven »
big time oops

Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1732 on: March 25, 2019, 06:44:15 PM »
Sorry to disappoint the Tesla bears here on this forum.

Tomorrow, as I take ownership of a brand new Tesla Model S, Tesla will increase their glory with one more 2019 Q1 sale and delivery, and they will increase their cash flow also.

And I'm really looking forward to never have to pump fossil fuel again !

Woot!  Congratulations, Rob!

And you are definitely in good company.  Tesla’s roll-out to Europe and China was quite a success:

Quote
Walter MacVane (@EcoHeliGuy) 3/24/19, 2:25 AM
Viking Adventure is turning into the Port of Zeebrugge Belgium. This is the 8th and final Vessel for Europe in Q1 2019. Now the final push to move cars by boat and truck around mainland Europe and Scandinavia before the end of the month. Well done Tesla, that was impressive.
https://twitter.com/ecoheliguy/status/1109702702659850240

Quote
Walter MacVane (@EcoHeliGuy) 3/25/19, 10:22 AM
A few hours ago Asian King arrived in the Port of Tianjin. In November Elon said that deliveries in March were possible but April was more likely. Now we have the 8th and final vessel arriveing in China before the end of March and Q1.
https://twitter.com/ecoheliguy/status/1110185309315059712
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1733 on: March 25, 2019, 06:59:16 PM »
So much “No Demand,” Tesla is raising prices!  ;)  ::)

Quote
< Is all this constant price tweaking unique to Tesla, or is Tesla the only automaker we’re paying this much attention to?

Elon Musk (@elonmusk)3/24/19, 3:34 PM
 Every car company is constantly changing prices, but nobody cares
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1109901209446416385

<< Most car dealers don't even give the same price from one customer to the next.
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1734 on: March 25, 2019, 07:00:09 PM »
There is a tendency for folks to cherry pick data, sometimes without realizing it (by both bears and bulls).  Using year-long statistics when there was a dramatic 'improvement' half-way through the year (Tesla Q3 and Q4 were very different from Q1 & Q2) will clearly make things look less rosy for a company.  And when export functionally started in January, looking at year-long data ending with February is significantly more cherry-ish. 

And ditto the congrats to Rob. 
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1735 on: March 25, 2019, 07:35:25 PM »
One of the main advantages of Tesla over the competition — its extensive, existing Supercharger network — is getting even better.  And this is before the rollout of Version 3 chargers.

Tesla begins to unlock V2 Supercharger’s 145 kW charge rate in new software roll out
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-v2-supercharger-145-kw-software-update/
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zizek

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1736 on: March 25, 2019, 08:31:09 PM »
Sorry to disappoint the Tesla bears here on this forum.

Tomorrow, as I take ownership of a brand new Tesla Model S, Tesla will increase their glory with one more 2019 Q1 sale and delivery, and they will increase their cash flow also.

And I'm really looking forward to never have to pump fossil fuel again !

You're bragging about buying a 90,000$+ sports car on a climate change forum, and people are actually applauding your decision. Congrats on your struggle against climate change my friend.  In ten years, when we get through this mess, people will look back at the heroes who were willing to throw their excess capital on expensive toys for themselves.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1737 on: March 25, 2019, 09:03:23 PM »
And production lines by the end of the year.  (Remember, Fremont has a General Assembly line running in its “tent” Sprung structure today.)

Quote
Vincent (@vincent13031925) 3/25/19, 2:15 PM
Tesla Shanghai Gigafactory (Night) March 25th 2019, via & credit 烏瓦

Construction of #Tesla GF3 is on going 24/7 in Shanghai to meet the Shanghai gov expectation (assembly-lines will ready to run by the end of May)

$TSLA #China #Gigafactory #GF3 #特斯拉 #中国 #TeslaChina
https://twitter.com/vincent13031925/status/1110243874268573696
Photo below; more at the link.

Edit: here’s the video, with plenty of construction action. :)  “The sound of machinery and dust is flying everywhere.“
« Last Edit: March 26, 2019, 12:37:41 AM by Sigmetnow »
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Neven

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1738 on: March 26, 2019, 12:03:56 AM »
I've removed a couple of off-topic comments.
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Archimid

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1739 on: March 26, 2019, 01:32:27 AM »
Congratulations Rob. I hope you enjoy it and it serves you well. Thank you for the emissions you won't be emitting.
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oren

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1740 on: March 26, 2019, 04:52:47 AM »
Patiently I wait.
Yes it's biased by selection of dates, or more to the point your belief that it signals something about Tesla is biased. BMW is leading European plug-in sales in Feb 2018-  Jan 2019. Meaningless - Model 3 did not ship to Europe during that period, and most would-be EV buyers were waiting for it. Tesla is leading by far over BMW (and everyone else) in Feb-March 2019 in EV sales in Europe. Also meaningless - there was a 2-year backlog to be satisfied. The big question - what will the "normal" demand be moving forward, for EVs in general and for Tesla in particular, in Europe and elsewhere, and at what price point? I don't know, and neither do you nor anyone else.
You saw a meaningless but negative headline about Tesla and ran with it. As obviously a lot of your posts about Tesla are biased negatively (we will agree to disagree about this opinion of mine).
But I will not be drawn into a slinging match over this, hence why I avoided responding, I see no point in it. You will obviously disagree with me, and other readers can form their own opinions based on the material as already presented.

BTW, yes I do think that Sigmetnow's posts about Tesla are biased positively. But at least she is nicer about it and does not call names and heap derision on other members of this thread.

Rob Dekker

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1741 on: March 26, 2019, 08:15:04 AM »
Thanks guys.

I've had my first impressions of my Tesla Model S today, and one word : WOW.

This is not just a car. And not just an Electric Vehicle.
This is re-defining transportation.

Now I know why Tesla is and will be a HUGE success.
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Neven

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1742 on: March 26, 2019, 08:30:10 AM »
I've removed some more off-topic comments.
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oren

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1743 on: March 26, 2019, 09:38:47 AM »
A few estimates regarding Model 3 deliveries in Q1. Who will turn out to be right? We will know in about a week.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/tesla-stock-price-deliveries-dialed-down-yet-again-2019-03-25
Quote
Analysts at RBC Capital, led by Joseph Spak, cut their price target on Tesla stock to $210.
The RBC analysts revised their first-quarter Model 3 deliveries projections to 52,500 vehicles, from 57,000 and compared with a consensus around 55,000 sedans, according to FactSet.
The RBC analysts said in their note Monday they penciled in deliveries around 21,000 Model 3s in Europe, 6,000 to 7,000 in China, and the remainder in North America.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/22/cowen-lowers-tesla-price-target-to-180-model-3-deliveries-could-be-weak.html
Quote
Wall Street research firm Cowen lowered its price target on Tesla from $200 to $180 on Friday, saying data suggests deliveries during the quarter could fall below expectations, even with Tesla's "typical end of quarter frantic push."

Analyst Jeff Osborne is lowering his Model 3 delivery forecast from 55,000 to 47,500 and his Model S and Model X delivery forecast from 21,500 to 18,000, based on data from government and third-party sources. Cowen maintains the equivalent of a sell rating on the stock.

https://twitter.com/EcoHeliGuy/status/1110413375530385409
Quote
Walter MacVane
‏I have been getting a lot of questions about what volume of Model 3’s or Tesla units as a whole being shipped internationally in Q1. When I started tracking ships, the intent was never to pinpoint the exact number of cars, only show ship volume.
So where does that leave us? I am going to give my loose estimate, as unit volume was not the original intent of my ship tracking. I was only offering the volume of vessels transporting to new markets. And to dispel myths that were being offered up.
My estimate is based on what “I” know today, this information can be outdated tomorrow. It’s based on the assumption Tesla isn’t going to ship half empty vessels around the world. And that packing vessels completely full is inefficient over multiple trips, vs quick turnaround.
For anyone thats Interested, Tesla’s VIN registrations averaged 10500/wk in Q1 vs 5775/WK in Q4. Not that this is a directly indicates production. But the two are related and need to be considered. We had 8 Vessel to Europe, and 8 Vessels to China.
I’m going with 2600 Model 3’s, and 700 S/X per shipment. For a total of 3300 on average per Vessel. Between Clovis Captain and Asian king there was 8.5 weeks of likely production. This works out to 4900/wk Model 3, and 1320/wk S/X production run per week.

https://blog.alphahat.com/tesla-delivered-more-vehicles-in-january-than-reports-suggest-3cf14e08b19e
Quote
Given what we’ve observed from delivery data in January, Tesla is seeing strong domestic demand for the Model 3. We think that 30k+ US deliveries for Q1 is a reasonable prediction given what we’ve seen so far. We wouldn’t be surprised if Tesla delivers fewer Model 3s within the US in February (to prioritize for international deliveries) before reaccelerating in March. For context, our data shows that Tesla delivered 30k Model 3s in the month of December alone, so we know that they certainly have the capacity to deliver with significant volume if needed.
Alphahat also estimated 2500 Model 3s per shipment to Europe/China, except the first ship each (1500).

Bill Maurer at Seeking Alpha
Quote
Because of the first quarter of global Model 3 deliveries, estimates for deliveries are all over the place. I've heard anywhere from 40,000 to 70,000 Model 3 units, with another 15,000 to 20,000 S/X units. Tesla guided to a sequential increase for Model 3 production from around 61,400 in Q4, and also said that deliveries would be about 10,000 less than that. Because of massive VIN registrations during the quarter, the Bloomberg Model has been projecting about 80,000 units of production for Q1, so it will be interesting to see if Tesla hits that area.

Anton Wahlman at Seeking Alpha
Quote
I created this model of Tesla’s unit deliveries in Q1. First, let’s start with the Model 3
USA+Canada 23760
Europe 14031
China 3300

https://www.forbes.com/sites/chuckjones/2019/03/11/teslas-biggest-bull-slashes-his-model-3-s-x-deliveries-but-not-his-550-price-target
Quote
Chowdhry halved his Model 3 estimate for the March quarter
* Cut Model 3 deliveries from 60,000 to 30,000 (vs. 63,359 in the December quarter)

Summary of Model 3 delivery estimates:
RBC: 25000 US/NA, 21000 EU, 6500 China, 52500 Total.
Cowen: 47500 Total.
Walter MacVane: 20800 EU, 20800 China.
Alphahat: 30000+ US/NA, 19000 EU, 19000 China.
Anton Wahlman: 23760 US/NA, Europe 14031, China 3300, 41091 Total.
Tim Chowdhry: 30000 Total.
Tesla guidance: >51400 Total.

As can be seen there is a very wide range, with the biggest spread by far in China. 3 of the 8 Chinese shipments arrived about 1 week before the end of the quarter (see the list in this link), so there is a good chance of lots of undelivered cars there.

On a related issue, there are no ships in transit to Europe and China at the moment. The last ship left the US on March 10th. Obviously Tesla is trying to show a low inventory and positive cash flow at the end of the quarter if it succeeds in actually delivering all these shipped cars into customers hands (China should be a challenge). This is similar to what it did on previous quarters but in contradiction to its own guidance for this quarter. This could result in better than expected deliveries, assuming US demand was sufficient to take up the production of the last few weeks, and the cars in China get delivered.
« Last Edit: March 26, 2019, 09:44:38 AM by oren »

Rob Dekker

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1744 on: March 26, 2019, 10:16:56 AM »
<Rob's posts are short, and I don't want to curb his enthusiasm. That Tesla Model S, even though it's an overpriced toy full of perceived and planned obsolescence that fits right into our conditioned consumerist mindset, is probably still better than what he drove before; N.>

If we are to make a difference for AGW, we need to change all our toys to use renewable energy.
So, Yes, with my solar system providing the electricity for my car, it's a LOT better.

<I will let this stand, but any responses to this in this thread will be removed (iow take it somewhere else); N.>
« Last Edit: March 26, 2019, 11:05:37 AM by Neven »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1745 on: March 26, 2019, 12:49:07 PM »
Another BS lawsuit — their second attempt — bites the dust!  Turns out being a bit late on hitting hyper-aggressive targets like 5,000 cars per week is not a crime. Victory for @Tesla and @elonmusk!

Tesla, Elon Musk win dismissal of lawsuit over Model 3 production
Quote
SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) - A federal judge in San Francisco dismissed for the second time a securities fraud lawsuit brought by Tesla Inc shareholders alleging that the company made misleading comments about the production status of its Model 3.

U.S. District Judge Charles Breyer sided with Tesla, granting the electric vehicle company dismissal of the lawsuit brought in October 2017. Breyer dismissed the original lawsuit in August but allowed plaintiffs to file an amended one.

The lawsuit sought class action status for shareholders who bought Tesla stock between May 3, 2016 through Nov. 1, 2017.

It said shareholders bought "artificially inflated" shares because Musk and other executives misled them with bullish statements about the production ramp of the Model 3, failing to disclose that the company was "woefully unprepared" for the vehicle's production.

Tesla argued in its defense that it had been forthcoming about challenges with Model 3 production, including repeated statements by Musk that Tesla was undergoing "production hell."

Breyer wrote that the allegations of fraud ignored Tesla's "repeated warnings about Model 3 production risks."
https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKCN1R62HU
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1746 on: March 26, 2019, 01:02:35 PM »
Bloomberg’s Model 3 Tracker is showing so many deliveries, they can’t believe it is accurate! ;D But it’s one of the few estimates out there that is based on actual data and not “feel.”  Tom Randall explains below.
(Note: despite all the photos on Chinese social media from new TM3 owners showing off their cars, the Tracker has no Chinese VINs reported. That’s odd.)

Quote
Tom Randall (@tsrandall) 3/25/19, 7:21 PM
Oh boy. Our Tesla Model 3 Tracker is taking us out on a limb this quarter. We’ve received a flood of new submissions from Tesla owners, and the estimates are rising. The Q1 production forecast is now at 81k—well above Wall Street. Here’s a live view of me twisting in the wind 1/  [cat gif]
https://twitter.com/tsrandall/status/1110320900413538304

Tesla reports Q1 next week. New VINs have been coming to us from across Europe—notably Norway, Germany, Netherlands, Switzerland. We also received SR+ VINs from 19 states and provinces in U.S. and Canada. These have boosted our model—we think too much 2/ bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-…

Last week we added this feature to our Tesla Model 3 Tracker projecting the model's real-time estimate for the quarter. At ~78k it was already well above most estimates, but we figured it would probably trickle down in the last days of the quarter. Nope 3/

The Twitter consensus of estimates maintained by @troyteslike has been moving in the opposite direction and is now below 70k. That seems reasonable 4/

We’ve been pretty open about thinking our model has been running too hot for much of the quarter. We have some thoughts on why that could be—related to the international rollout—and some changes in mind that would prevent a repeat, if we really are off 5/

While we’re prepared to take our knocks if our model is too high, it's still worth looking at. It suggests that, even amid negative sentiment and analyst delivery downgrades, production is strong. (Of course that has different implications depending on how you assess LT demand)
Images below.

< @TroyTeslike's estimates may seem more reasonable, however, your tracker was nearly perfect last quarter while Troy's was too low by 10K
<< The google spreadsheet will be very unreliable, most estimates are based on “feeling”. The only source that still relies on data is your model. So 1) wtf is going on & 2) wtf is going on. How on earth could they be at that level (if true)? It would change everything.

Quote
Armand Vervaeck(@ArmandVervaeck) 3/25/19, 8:16 PM
@tsrandall The way Tesla handled the ships to Europe and China was perfect. No cars at all in transit as everything (at least in Europe) is sold out and as the cars from the last ship are being trucked all over Europe and immediately delivered + based on my contacts still a serious backlog.
https://twitter.com/armandvervaeck/status/1110334782708305920

Quote
Bonnie Norman (@bonnienorman) 3/25/19, 7:04 PM
Scooop: Tesla is hiding unsold cars on car carriers.
https://twitter.com/bonnienorman/status/1110316674685624320
Image of bear tweet below.

< What is more simple for a profit seeking entity? Paying to transport product in circles, or paying to deliver to customers and then taking their money?
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1747 on: March 26, 2019, 01:19:21 PM »
The Tesla ramp in Norway continues to amaze.  As of March 24:  4,691 Teslas have been registered in 2019, making a market share of 14.8%!  That’s puts them higher than than VW, Toyota, and BMW, and higher than any ICE cars: the Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV in fifth place and Toyota RAV4 in ninth place are the only non-electric cars on the top ten list. 

Go, Norway!  Go, EVs!

Last week, 1,479 Tesla models were registered, of which a total of 1,381 were Model 3.

Image below from: https://twitter.com/m_xalher/status/1110277718355206146
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1748 on: March 26, 2019, 01:48:17 PM »
Tesla: Over 1 billion miles driven with Model S
Quote
Early this morning, Tesla Motors announced that their Model S fleet had passed the 1 billion miles driven mark, truly an accomplishment worth noting, as all the miles logged by Tesla have been fully electric.
https://insideevs.com/tesla-model-s-passes-1-billion-miles-driven/
• 7.5 years from the first Roadster in 2008 before the fleet crossed 1 billion miles collectively in the summer of 2015.
• Passed 1 billion miles of Autopilot at the end of November.

——-
Closer look at Tesla’s giant new building in Lathrop in Northern California
Quote
Tesla has a giant new building under construction in Northern California. It’s rumored to be a distribution center and/or a manufacturing facility and now we get a closer look with a drone video.

Ever since it took over the Fremont factory from Toyota and GM in 2010, Tesla has been expanding in the bay area with new facilities.  A few years later, it started expanding further in Northern California outside of the Bay area, like Lathrop and Livermore.

According to Tesla’s 10k SEC filing, the company owns a 500,000 sq-ft building in Lathrop, which is about an hour east of the factory, and it has long-term leases on at least 3 more buildings for a total of over 1 million sq-ft of floor space in the city of about 23,000 people.

Last year, we reported on a new 870,000 sq-ft building currently under-construction near Tesla’s current Lathrop facilities that is reportedly meant for the automaker:

Most of Tesla’s locations in Lathrop are warehouses and with the ramp up of Model 3 production, Tesla has also been using the facilities as a “loading hub”:

“We use Lathrop as a loading hub for cars being shipped to other locations for delivery to customers,“As our deliveries increase, we’re obviously going to have more cars there.”


One of the locations in Lathrop is also a casting foundry. We previously reported Tesla is setting up casting lines at Gigafactory 1 and using metallurgists from Lathrop to do the installation.
https://electrek.co/2019/03/25/tesla-giant-building-lathrop/
Photos and drone video at the link.

Quote
Walter MacVane (@EcoHeliGuy) 3/17/19, 3:39 AM
Anyone notice these beautiful castings in the Model Y?
https://twitter.com/ecoheliguy/status/1107184665419378688
- The rear of the Model 3 doesn’t have to protect a 3rd row seat. Also this would have immense vertical rigidity suggesting either improved strength for rough terrain impact forces or towing load distribution capabilities.
Images at the link.
< Model Y will definitely lose some rigidity due to removal of cross member/plate on top of the trunk.
Whether additional strengthening is then necessary or Model 3 was already too Strong (Munroe) is up for debate.
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oren

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1749 on: March 26, 2019, 01:58:33 PM »
Bloomberg’s Model 3 Tracker is showing so many deliveries, they can’t believe it is accurate!
AFAIK it's production, not deliveries, which are supposedly expected at 10k below.