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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1800 on: April 01, 2019, 04:48:21 PM »
March 31, 2019"No single car manufacturer alone can afford the sheer size of investments needed to develop platforms for the kind of smart, hybrid and connected vehicles that will hit the road in coming years.”
 ::) ::) ::) ;D
    I guess it requires a software company that makes its own chips and writes AI programming with deep investments in batteries, solar... and cars! 8)

PSA, Fiat Chrysler discuss joint electric cars, report says
Quote
"No single car manufacturer alone can afford the sheer size of investments needed to develop platforms for the kind of smart, hybrid and connected vehicles that will hit the road in coming years," said Carlo Alberto Carnevale Maffe, a professor at Bocconi University in Milan.

"Talks between PSA and FCA, as well as the one by BMW and Daimler, are a clear sign that the industry needs to find a new equilibrium of competition on final products and services, leveraging on inevitable cooperation in technology development and supporting infrastructures."
https://www.autonews.com/automakers-suppliers/psa-fiat-chrysler-discuss-joint-electric-cars-report-says
[Article is over 550 words. Not one is “Tesla.”]


"Tesla is a software company as much as it is a hardware company.”  — Elon Musk
MAR 19, 2015
Elon Musk: Model S not a car but a 'sophisticated computer on wheels'
Quote
Since the invention of the automobile more than a century ago, consumers were pretty much stuck with the car they purchased. They could make some changes in tires, tuning and suspension that could improve the performance of the vehicle. But doing anything big such as adding features or getting more power out of the engine involved the complex and often expensive swapping of parts -- or trading up to a more expensive model.

Tesla Chief Executive Elon Musk may be overturning those conventions.

"We really designed the Model S to be a very sophisticated computer on wheels," Musk said Thursday, while announcing software updates for his Model S. "Tesla is a software company as much as it is a hardware company. A huge part of what Tesla is, is a Silicon Valley software company. We view this the same as updating your phone or your laptop."

Analysts agreed, saying Tesla is taking a design approach that looks at a vehicle as an electronic device rather than a machine. Cars will become platforms for apps that can change or improve their functions rather than having their performance frozen in place at the time of purchase.


"You are seeing a convergence of the car and the mobile phone," said Efraim Levy, auto industry analyst at S&P Capital IQ.

Musk announced the anticipated changes during a teleconference at which he also unveiled software updates that allow the car to scan the locations of all Tesla charging stations and tell drivers exactly how far it is to the best one, and then recommend the best route for getting there. Musk said this app will relieve "range anxiety," or fear that a car will run out of electricity before it reaches a destination where it can be recharged. Older cars will also get these features.

The Model S electric sports sedans will receive the free software updates through a wireless link embedded in the cars.
"This is one of the ways that Tesla shows off its innovation and it is in the direction that consumers increasingly expect," Levy said. "Technology changes and they get upgrades." …
https://www.latimes.com/business/autos/la-fi-hy-musk-computer-on-wheels-20150319-story.html
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1801 on: April 01, 2019, 06:27:14 PM »
Tesla (@Tesla)
4/1/19, 9:54 AM
Tesla Semi out for deliveries
https://twitter.com/tesla/status/1112714758522695681

The video clip we’ve been waiting for.  Tesla Semi truck, on the road, transporting four Teslas! 
Video is apparently only available through Twitter for now.
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NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1802 on: April 01, 2019, 06:30:48 PM »
Interestingly Bloomberg is starting to doubt its tracker.  In fact they are saying that if their tracker is correct (has been for quite a while now), then Tesla will have manufactured and delivered nearly 80k model 3's in Q1 2019.  An average of just over 6k per week.

Which would significantly increase the revenue for Tesla and may be the difference between profit and loss.

A few days will tell.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1803 on: April 01, 2019, 10:08:17 PM »
Quote
Alex (@alex_avoigt) 4/1/19, 10:59 AM
March Registrations

752 Teslas have been registered in Austria in March.

No break down on Models yet.
https://twitter.com/alex_avoigt/status/1112731187435450368
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Rob Dekker

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1804 on: April 02, 2019, 06:58:48 AM »
There are Tesla bears and bulls, with opposite views of Tesla's ultimate fate.

There are not many presentations that give both a voice, but Real Vision did that in this video, and it became actually remarkably interesting :


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Rob Dekker

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1805 on: April 03, 2019, 07:58:52 AM »
March Model 3 sales were 5,315 units, or 171 per day. So far in April, sales are 60 units per day. That’s a two thirds decline.
...
bla bla bla
...
Enough of this manipulative over-hyped distorted spin 24/7/365!

Sure thing. Based on 2 days of data, you spread all that manipulative over-hyped distorted spin about Tesla ?
Are you a Tesla short-seller or so ?

Back to the facts, even at 60 units/day, Model 3 was was still the best selling car in Norway in April :

https://elbilstatistikk.no

Quote
Top this month:   Tesla Model 3   with:   120 cars
Top this year:   Tesla Model 3   with:   6236 cars

Thank you very much.
« Last Edit: April 03, 2019, 09:16:09 AM by Rob Dekker »
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BeeKnees

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1806 on: April 03, 2019, 10:39:20 AM »
Norway May-December Model 3 Delivery Projection  = ZERO units

As I see it, to assume this requires one of three options to be true,
Tesla are cutting back on production and so have less cars to sell,
They will sell all the cars they make in the US market
There will be zero demand in Norway and so there is no point shipping any.

Which option are you going for?

 

Jim Hunt

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1807 on: April 03, 2019, 12:33:57 PM »
Tesla bears will no doubt be delighted to discover that over here at V2G UK we're brassed off with Tesla's latest patent application in particular and the US Patent Office's "prior art" department in general:

http://www.V2G.co.uk/2019/04/tesla-files-samdes-patent-application/

Does anybody here happen to know any top notch, albeit pro bono, US patent lawyers?

Exhibit 1:


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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1808 on: April 03, 2019, 02:44:18 PM »
Free advertising! ;D Everyone constantly refreshing the Tesla investor page looking for the Q1 production and delivery numbers statement to be posted are now treated to this:

Tesla To Host Autonomy Investor Day
Quote
Apr 03,2019
PALO ALTO, Calif., April 03, 2019 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Tesla is making significant progress in the development of its autonomous driving software and hardware, including our FSD computer, which is currently in production and which will enable full-self driving via future over-the-air software updates. With a number of very exciting developments coming in the weeks and months ahead, Tesla will host investors on the morning of April 19th at our headquarters in Palo Alto to provide a deep dive into our self-driving technology and road map.

Investors will be able to take test-drives to experience our Autopilot software first-hand, including features and functionality that are under active development. Investors will also hear directly from Elon Musk, as well as VP of Engineering, Stuart Bowers, VP of Hardware Engineering, Pete Bannon, and Sr. Director of AI, Andrej Karpathy.

The event will be webcast. Additional details forthcoming.
http://ir.tesla.com/news-releases/news-release-details/tesla-host-autonomy-investor-day
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1809 on: April 03, 2019, 04:27:15 PM »
What better position to be in than a major contributor in a fast-growing market?

Quote
Somehow, we lost. (@somehowwelost)
4/2/19, 3:45 PM
Winter is coming for German carmakers. ...
https://twitter.com/somehowwelost/status/1113165598807212033
Chart below: Norwegian new car registrations in March, by fuel type.

Also in Cars thread, because of course.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1810 on: April 03, 2019, 04:40:55 PM »
Tesla bears will no doubt be delighted to discover that over here at V2G UK we're brassed off with Tesla's latest patent application in particular and the US Patent Office's "prior art" department in general:

http://www.V2G.co.uk/2019/04/tesla-files-samdes-patent-application/

Does anybody here happen to know any top notch, albeit pro bono, US patent lawyers?

Exhibit 1:
I posted a reply on http://www.V2G.co.uk/ and here it is

Quote
America First !! (= Everybody else last).

I expect the patent will be granted and you will have to go a a USA Federal Court to stop it.

Once upon a time a US company patented the genes of an indigenous tribe from Papua New Guinea. The tribe had to go to the USA to stop it.
https://www.nytimes.com/1995/11/27/business/patents-recent-patent-papua-new-guinea-tribe-s-cell-line-prompts-outrage-charges.html

https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2013/06/supreme-court-blocks-patenting-of-genomic-dna/

The US Supreme Court, in a nearly unanimous ruling (Scalia joined the majority for most of the decision; more on that below), has held that a piece of DNA that occurs naturally is not eligible for patenting. This means that any sequences that are normally present in the human genome—or that of any other organism—cannot be the subject of patent infringement.

The case grew out of patents held by Myriad Genetics, a company that has had a monopoly on testing for genetic defects in genes associated with breast and ovarian cancer. The genes in question, BRCA1 and BRCA2, were first isolated by scientists from the University of Utah who then patented their sequences. The university later transferred the patents to Myriad, which developed further patents to cover more detailed aspects of the testing process.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1811 on: April 03, 2019, 08:01:12 PM »
Tesla Shanghai Gigafactory GF3
Update: April 3rd 2019
“Tesla shangahi gigafactory -Overground buildings have begun to take shape 特斯拉上海超級工廠”
Full Video:  youtu.be/Czyn7c8d_Ew
Screen caps below.
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Archimid

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1812 on: April 04, 2019, 02:50:20 AM »
Tesla Advanced Summons demo




I bet this car is equipped with the new Tesla processor.
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GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1813 on: April 04, 2019, 02:54:57 AM »
I bet this car is equipped with the new Tesla processor.

What do you think you mean by this? I have no idea.
big time oops

Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1814 on: April 04, 2019, 02:54:57 AM »
Numbers!

Quote
...produced approximately 77,100 total vehicles, consisting of 62,950 Model 3 and 14,150 Model S and X.

Deliveries were approximately 63,000 vehicles, which was 110% more than the same quarter last year, but 31% less than last quarter. This included approximately 50,900 Model 3 and 12,100 Model S and X.

Due to a massive increase in deliveries in Europe and China, which at times exceeded 5x that of prior peak delivery levels, and many challenges encountered for the first time, we had only delivered half of the entire quarter’s numbers by March 21, ten days before end of quarter. This caused a large number of vehicle deliveries to shift to the second quarter. At the end of the first quarter, approximately 10,600 vehicles were in transit to customers globally.

Because of the lower than expected delivery volumes and several pricing adjustments, we expect Q1 net income to be negatively impacted. Even so, we ended the quarter with sufficient cash on hand.

In North America, Model 3 was yet again the best-selling mid-sized premium sedan, selling 60% more units than the runner up. Inventory of Model 3 vehicles in North America remains exceptionally low, reaching about two weeks of supply at the end of Q1, compared to the industry average of 2-3 months.  ...
http://ir.tesla.com/news-releases/news-release-details/tesla-q1-2019-vehicle-production-deliveries
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GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1815 on: April 04, 2019, 02:58:47 AM »
With Tesla reporting Q1 numbers, it is impossible to argue Tesla is in the midst of exponentially-crazy-growth. Although not for fanatics, so I guess it will continue.


Also, just in case anyone was confused: Norway is less than 0.1% of the global population.
big time oops

Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1816 on: April 04, 2019, 03:07:56 AM »
Tesla Advanced Summons demo
...
I bet this car is equipped with the new Tesla processor.

Software update.  A select group of Tesla owners get new beta software versions for testing in the wild, before it is approved for rollout to the larger fleet (of whichever cars can use it).  That’s what they are chatting about with “fifteen dot eight” etc. — telling which version they have loaded.

Advanced Summon will send the car to a point in a parking lot where you have dropped a pin on the map.  Or the car will find and come to you.  Or, follow you like a puppy, as shown in your video.  Last I read, it’s limited to about 150 feet (45m).
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Archimid

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1817 on: April 04, 2019, 03:26:09 AM »
What I'm thinking is that early beta testers may receive an early installation (under NDA) of the new hardware.  The flurry of new summon videos leads me to believe that Tesla lifted the NDA on showing the technology but maybe not on speaking about the hardware. 

Also the way AP drives in this video looks very different from other AP videos I've seen. It looks more assertive.
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oren

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1818 on: April 04, 2019, 03:35:00 AM »
IMHO a rather disappointing result, and certainly less than I expected. Model 3 production barely increased by 1.5k from Q4, while S/X production shrunk from 25k to 14k. Moreover, despite no ships travelling the ocean at quarter-end, there were still 10.6k vehicles that were in transit but not delivered.
Beyond logistics, I read this as a demand issue, as I've been suspecting for a while - the company is not production-constrained, but rather order-constrained. This is a totally different situation, and the numbers so far put a dent in the "unlimited growth" story.
This quarter saw a number of price decreases, and the availability of the base $35k Model 3. I expect actual shipping of the base model in mass will happen in Q2. Will these price decreases be enough to sustain order flow going forward until Q4 of 2020, when the Model Y should start shipping? I am not certain. I doubt the competition makes much difference at this point, and there seem to be a lot of people wishing for a Tesla, but are there enough people with the available money that have still not ordered in the initial wave but will be ready to order in the coming year? We will find out by hard numbers at the end of Q2 and moving forward.
Positive contributors should be the expected availability of cheaper versions in Europe and China, and shipping of Right-Hand-Drive cars mainly to the UK and Australia, plus the delayed effect of base model availability. Then perhaps the cash-flow-impacting leasing options in the US.
On the other hand, Q4 2020 is a long way off, and the reduction in S/X sales removes some of the financial support. Cost-cutting measures and increased production efficiencies should take up some of the slack, but everything depends on the order flow. Should Model 3 orders shrink, a red flag will be hanging above the company.
Note: another small issue holding up European sales seems to be that the Model 3 is not yet certified for towing and lacks a tow hitch. Hopefully this will change soon, not sure why the delay.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1819 on: April 04, 2019, 03:38:09 AM »
What I'm thinking is that early beta testers may receive an early installation (under NDA) of the new hardware.  The flurry of new summon videos leads me to believe that Tesla lifted the NDA on showing the technology but maybe not on speaking about the hardware. 

Also the way AP drives in this video looks very different from other AP videos I've seen. It looks more assertive.

Existing hardware (in newer cars).
Quote
"Tesla advanced Summon ready in ~6 weeks! Just an over-the-air software upgrade, so will work on all cars made in past 2 years (Autopilot hardware V2+)," Musk said in a tweet.

Tesla Advanced Summon Gets Regulator Approval
Quote
While Elon Musk has really enthusiastic ideas for the Summon’s improvement, most of these will have to wait for the automaker to release larger and better trained neural networks. Although, it seems Tesla is already working hard on these. This was revealed by Tesla’s Director of Artificial Intelligence Andrej Karpathy, who noted that the company had already trained large neural networks that work very well. Unfortunately, he also noted that these new neural networks just can’t be deployed to current Tesla vehicles, mostly due to the limitations in the company’s current hardware. However, most of these limitations are to be lifted with the rollout of the Hardware 3 later this year.
https://insideevs.com/tesla-advanced-summon-gets-regulator-approval/

Tesla Model 3 gets walked 'like a pet' in impressive advanced Summon demo
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-model-3-advanced-summon-video/
« Last Edit: April 04, 2019, 03:43:26 AM by Sigmetnow »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1820 on: April 04, 2019, 03:53:46 AM »
IMHO a rather disappointing result, and certainly less than I expected. Model 3 production barely increased by 1.5k from Q4, while S/X production shrunk from 25k to 14k. Moreover, despite no ships travelling the ocean at quarter-end, there were still 10.6k vehicles that were in transit but not delivered.
Beyond logistics, I read this as a demand issue, as I've been suspecting for a while - the company is not production-constrained, but rather order-constrained. This is a totally different situation, and the numbers so far put a dent in the "unlimited growth" story.
  ...

Tesla writes:
Quote
Due to a massive increase in deliveries in Europe and China, which at times exceeded 5x that of prior peak delivery levels, and many challenges encountered for the first time, we had only delivered half of the entire quarter’s numbers by March 21, ten days before end of quarter. This caused a large number of vehicle deliveries to shift to the second quarter. At the end of the first quarter, approximately 10,600 vehicles were in transit to customers globally.

I don’t see any way this can be construed as a lack of demand.  10,600 cars with owners waiting for them were unable to be delivered due to the massive logistics challenges of the international ramp-up.  China actually ran out of delivery trucks! These cars will be delivered in Q2, along with increased domestic and international production as ramping challenges are ironed out.
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Archimid

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1821 on: April 04, 2019, 04:07:44 AM »
The quarterly results are not terrible, as they could have easily been. They are sufficient to keep the mission moving forward without raising and with very good future outlook.

Oren, I agree with much of what you said but disagree on the following:

This is a totally different situation, and the numbers so far put a dent in the "unlimited growth" story.

This is just the beginning. As the waves of Model 3 continue to hit the streets, EVs will gain acceptance in the ICE market. Right now Model 3 dominates the midsize premium sedan market in both sales and performance. If the 35k Model 3 can do the same thing to Camrys and Accords than high end versions did to BMW's and Mercedes the demand will certainly be there.

I think it will do so because they are truly fantastic cars. The fact that they are electric makes them better than ICEs in most ways. The fact they are significantly cheaper to operate will be more obvious everyday. 

Then there are the demand levers. Whenever Tesla wants, they can increase demand by

1. Offering leases  with the trade off that it's less profitable than selling.
2. Advertisement

And then there is AP. AP is not necesary for Tesla's success, but if they can get to level 5 at least on the highway, then it is a whole different game.

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oren

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1822 on: April 04, 2019, 04:08:56 AM »
I don’t see any way this can be construed as a lack of demand.  10,600 cars with owners waiting for them were unable to be delivered due to the massive logistics challenges of the international ramp-up.
Even if all these cars were Model 3 only, and even had they all been delivered in Q1, it still would not have made up for the shortfall in Model 3 deliveries compared to Q4 - 50.9k vs. 63.1k, while a reasonable expectation would have been for increased production and increased deliveries+transit.
I am certain production did not increase simply due to the lack of enough orders to soak up the resulting cars. Average Model 3 production was still below 5k/week, while theoretically the Fremont peak capacity is 7k/week. I am sure they could have produced more, but chose not to.
Once GF3 is ready, capacity will increase to 10k/week, but will orders grow along to 10k/week? Based on these Q1 numbers, I expect not. The company could still be profitable and financially viable, but it's not a wild growth story right now.
OTOH, worldwide general availability of the base model (SR/SR+) could pump back demand, at least for a while.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1823 on: April 04, 2019, 04:38:38 AM »
I don’t see any way this can be construed as a lack of demand.  10,600 cars with owners waiting for them were unable to be delivered due to the massive logistics challenges of the international ramp-up.
Even if all these cars were Model 3 only, and even had they all been delivered in Q1, it still would not have made up for the shortfall in Model 3 deliveries compared to Q4 - 50.9k vs. 63.1k, while a reasonable expectation would have been for increased production and increased deliveries+transit.
I am certain production did not increase simply due to the lack of enough orders to soak up the resulting cars. Average Model 3 production was still below 5k/week, while theoretically the Fremont peak capacity is 7k/week. I am sure they could have produced more, but chose not to.
Once GF3 is ready, capacity will increase to 10k/week, but will orders grow along to 10k/week? Based on these Q1 numbers, I expect not. The company could still be profitable and financially viable, but it's not a wild growth story right now.
OTOH, worldwide general availability of the base model (SR/SR+) could pump back demand, at least for a while.

Production and deliveries do not, have not, increased smoothly quarter after quarter.  In Q4 2016, several thousand Teslas were stuck on a boat that could not get into a Chinese harbor due to smog so bad the harbor was closed due to the poor visibility.  The lower numbers that Qtr did not indicate a lack of demand!

They were delivered the following quarter.  This Q1, Tesla had to manage production of new versions of cars for the international market AND new RoRo ship schedules AND port logistics AND delivery centers which suddenly had five times more cars than they’d ever had to process before.  Of course there were problems getting all the cars to their owners!  And remember, Tesla doesn’t count a car as delivered until the handoff occurs and all paperwork is correct.  Not all manufacturers are so picky.

Bottom line: with lessons learned, slow port workers in Zeebrugge fired, and 10,000 carryover from Q1... Q2 is gonna be awesome!
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1824 on: April 04, 2019, 10:58:31 AM »
I am not surprised Model X and Model S deliveries are so much lower than Q4, because of tax incentives.
In the Netherlands a 100k electric car that was bought on 01/01/19 has ~€ 4.5k/year less fiscal subsidy then one bought 1 day earlier...

magnamentis

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1825 on: April 04, 2019, 01:19:27 PM »
QUOTED AND TRANSLATED FROM "Schweizerische Depeschen Agentur"

The US electric car maker Tesla has brought in the first quarter significantly fewer vehicles to the customer. The company announced on Thursday (local time) to have delivered about 63,000 cars. This is a decline of 31 percent from the previous quarter and significantly less than was expected by experts.

50'900 pieces were delivered by the hopefuls Model 3, which corresponds to a loss of around 20 percent in a quarterly comparison. Tesla faced major challenges at the beginning of the year - the relatively inexperienced in mass production had problems lifting the delivery of Model 3 to Europe and China.

Tesla produced around 77,100 vehicles in the first quarter of the year, almost eleven percent less than in the previous quarter. The Model 3 accounted for 62,950 pieces. The first cheaper Tesla is to bring the company of tech billionaire Elon Musk from the luxury niche in the mass market and is therefore of great importance. (SDA)

END TRANSLATED QUOTE

EDIT: i've seen only later that this has been mentioned and discussed already, sorry but no damage done either, have a good day @ALL

  8)
« Last Edit: April 04, 2019, 01:30:16 PM by magnamentis »

RikW

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1826 on: April 04, 2019, 03:19:02 PM »
So they missed their own estimate only by 500? That's much better then I expected seeing those number.

edit: the stock price is really fluctuating these months. It is interesting to see if it will crash much lower or will regain a little of the 10% pre-opening-losses

NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1827 on: April 04, 2019, 03:26:29 PM »
My how times have changed. From the almost fanatical focus on whether Tesla is going to run out of cash to a fanatical focus on whether Tesla has enough orders for long term viability.

Let me quote the one thing from the numbers that nobody is talking about.

Quote
Because of the lower than expected delivery volumes and several pricing adjustments, we expect Q1 net income to be negatively impacted. Even so, we ended the quarter with sufficient cash on hand.

This is what investors are interested in.  Especially as Tesla paid back $920m of debt in Q1 at the same time as retaining sufficient cash on hand for all operations and, let us not forget, the costs attendant in creating Gigafactory3.

This is a far cry from the situation last year when everyone expected Tesla to issue a rights issue to pay back debt.

You will note that Option 2 was never even discussed.  Yet it was that "impossible task" of 2018 that Tesla used to pay back the debt and expand operations.

Now let us think about another few things.

The EU has a 10% tariff on cars imported from the EU.  China, in the middle of a trade "tiff" with the US is levying taxes as high as 40% on Tesla cars.  Meaning that whilst customers in the US are paying around $45,000 for above base spec model 3's, Chinese customers are paying nearly $65,000 for the same vehicle.

Important, also is to understand the impact, in Q4, of the cut off for subsidies.  This drove an exceptional one time demand for Tesla products.  To hit even close to the same level of deliveries, in Q1 2019, shows a very solid broad base of demand world wide.

OK Tesla is having to go to the world to keep demand high enough to justify the workforce in Fremont, however that is just good corporate practise. There was very little point in ramping up Model3 demand elsewhere in the world when it was not possible for Tesla to meet US demand, let alone worldwide demand.

Now let us roll forward to Q3 and see where I expect Tesla to be.  Gigafactory3 will be in production. That means Tesla products will be rolling out of the factory, in the highest EV demand market in the world, at a price lower than that in the US to US consumers.

Yep, it's going to be a disaster and nobody will want one.  After all there is strong demand in China for Tesla cars with a 40% levy on them, why would they want to buy one at below the US price without import tariffs.

There are some other dynamics going on in the car industry right now.  One of those is the dropping of tariffs between Japan and the EU, which has prompted the pull out of Nissan and Toyota from the UK (Yep you thought it was Brexit didn't you... Nope it was already planned and the long drawn out Brexit has forced them to come clean).  This is a space to watch.  Because a  Gigafactory in Japan might just be more likely than in the EU, especially as it is Panasonic which produces their battery cells.

Just to present a picture which is neither bullish nor Bearish about Tesla.  Simply an analysis of past expectations, the way that Tesla presented their expectations and abilities, how Tesla actually performed and the factors which Tesla must asses in order to compete effectively in the market whilst growing.

Useful to remember. Tesla has cash on hand, a profitable business and resources who have the time and availability to work on other things.  Like Model Y, Semi and the power business.

I was 100% right last year about the health and direction of Tesla. They became profitable, repaid debt and cash reserves grew, all whist seeing the fastest ramp up, ever, in modern vehicle manufacturing.

Naturally, to the Bears, this is all Tesla Bull talk.

Let us see.  The 52 week low on Tesla stock is 247.77. Something to watch as it closed at 291.71 yesterday.

We might also remember that next quarter there are an additional 10,000 deliveries to add.

If Deliveries drop again, then Tesla is in trouble.  If they grow, significantly, possibly with the $35k model, then we shall see.

Again, as ever, it is a waiting game.

In a project management world, you look at the glide path of whatever you are monitoring.  The glide path of Tesla is, currently, upwards.  If it goes down then it will be time to try and see why.

Being right too soon is socially unacceptable.

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BeeKnees

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1828 on: April 04, 2019, 03:44:46 PM »
Are you trying to break into Comedy? 

Please present your Data for Norway May-December Model 3 Delivery Projection that is greater than Zero ;D

So your data is because there is no shipments currently scheduled, then there will be no more shipments.

Ok.


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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1829 on: April 04, 2019, 04:26:21 PM »
The company could still be profitable and financially viable...

Based on what do you make that claim? Honestly, I am curious, cuz I have not seen a single argument put forward about how how Tesla is viable outside of a restructure or wild growth.
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1830 on: April 04, 2019, 04:32:28 PM »
"Tesla made 0 cars in 2011, but will make around 500k in 2019"

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1098013283372589056?lang=en

Q1 rate = 308k

Let's wish Mr. Musk good luck in court today...he is going to need it.
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1831 on: April 04, 2019, 04:40:36 PM »
Important, also is to understand the impact, in Q4, of the cut off for subsidies.  This drove an exceptional one time demand for Tesla products.  To hit even close to the same level of deliveries, in Q1 2019, shows a very solid broad base of demand world wide.

You do realize half that incentive is still there but will be halved again in 3 months, and then gone by the end of the year right? So we are still in half-intensity one time demand for Teslas. What happens to demand next year? Trick question...Tesla won't be selling cars.

Now let us roll forward to Q3 and see where I expect Tesla to be.  Gigafactory3 will be in production. That means Tesla products will be rolling out of the factory, in the highest EV demand market in the world, at a price lower than that in the US to US consumers.

How can you consider yourself a serious person and actually believe that within 6 months Tesla will be producing cars in the Giga3?!?!?!?!?!
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1832 on: April 04, 2019, 05:11:46 PM »
"What people should absolutely have zero concern about, and I mean 0, is that Tesla will achieve a 10,000 [model 3] unit production week by the end of [2018]."

-fElon Much, August 2017


April 2019, still not at 5,000 units per week.

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1833 on: April 04, 2019, 05:30:37 PM »
Guys, instead of these long-winded discussions, please keep it short and post links that hint at either Tesla glory or failure.
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1834 on: April 04, 2019, 05:51:56 PM »
OK, fairly short.

Tesla is currently (as I write), trading at around 269.  It opened at 261 and has been climbing since. No link required just ask google.

Failure?  Not according to the markets.

Again, you both ignore the fact that you were both focusing on Tesla liquidity with a microscope in 2018 and basing predictions on it.  Now you are focusing on orders and deliveries with a microscope, because liquidity is a dead duck, to find why Tesla is going to fail.

The market, on the other hand, is looking at Tesla with a long range view and, generally, it likes what it sees.

So keep going and tell me that I'm clueless.  You told me that last year, several times.  Now tell me how your predictions panned out.
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1835 on: April 04, 2019, 06:46:36 PM »
Looks to me that Tesla sucked up all the demand for the early adopters in the US (not helped by the loss of the tax benefit) and is now doing the same in Europe and Asia. So there will be some big jumps in Europe/Asia market share for a short while then a quick fall off. If that happens, there will be a severe liquidity issue at Tesla - especially if they are playing games to goose their cash position at reporting time (which is quite likely given all the other games going on).

The 1-year chart of TSLA shares looks awful, as the price keeps getting rejected at the falling moving average - which does not bode well for the future. If it breaks $250 we will be at $200 pretty fast, which will mean that buyers all the way back to 2013 will have at best broken even. Then we have the Musk margin-call price that will make everyone very antsy. Things could get ugly very fast - a bit like Nortel in the dot.com bubble.

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1836 on: April 04, 2019, 06:49:45 PM »
There is no support for the price below $200, so could fall very, very fast once it breaks that level.

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1837 on: April 04, 2019, 07:15:28 PM »

Again, you both ignore the fact that you were both focusing on Tesla liquidity with a microscope in 2018 and basing predictions on it.  Now you are focusing on orders and deliveries with a microscope, because liquidity is a dead duck, to find why Tesla is going to fail.


this is something i can't look the other way. it's not them who day after day come up with production and delivery numbers to make a point, others do that and they only reply.

so in short, some open a topic and try to make a point with supeficial ultimately meaningless stuff and then if others reply to it to explain that those number do not mean profit and with permanently producing losses, at least most of the time, a business is ultimately doomed, they are accuesed to switch focus ?

i'm using the opportunty to repeat that:

a) tesla CURRENTLY is not able to produce steady and revolving profits

b) without profits, means mostly losses,  a business can't survive

c) tesla is using tricks to boost specific numbers for specific periods and since they are not
.   able to make this consisten, they boost every month and or quarter another parameter, once
.   it's production, then it's sales, then it's a "profit" or "no loss this time" then it's new markets
.   initial hypes and booms etc. but never the same consistetly raising values of the same kind for
.   severlal months, quaraters or years.

d) what ultimately will trigger the collapse, could be a general recession, depression or crisis of
.   another kind, i don't know, but what i do know it will be debts that gives them the
.   "coup de grace" and that fact will be related to available funds a.n.a. cash-flow, yes that's
.    correct.

e) one day before it happens, believers will still say otherwise and once it happened they will either
.   leave to stage not to be seen/heard again or march with the mob to kill the apparent culprit.

this behaviour is very common throughout fauna and flora LOL so again we humans proof that we
are just another species of animals.

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1838 on: April 04, 2019, 08:01:14 PM »
so in short, some open a topic and try to make a point with supeficial ultimately meaningless stuff and then if others reply to it to explain that those number do not mean profit and with permanently producing losses, at least most of the time, a business is ultimately doomed, they are accuesed to switch focus ?

I did make some very specific points.

I made a point that Tesla has positive cash flow.
I made a point that Tesla is funding debt repayments out of cash and not by raising money from the markets
I made a point that the direction the company is running in now (flight path or trajectory), is positive, as opposed to the constant negative that has been the case every year up until the Model3 ramp up was completed.

Ignored, ignored, ignored.

Investors do not base their decisions on a single quarters figures. They also factor in all current variables.  Such as:

The motor industry is in crisis
All the incumbents in the motor industry are currently taking a beating
Reductions in profits and even losses (JLR for instance), are currently higher for most incumbents than they are for Tesla.

Looking forward, the Fremont factory has the capacity to produce between 300,000 and 400,000 cars per year in the current configuration.

If you look to the current and very recent, news, it has been announced that Gigafactory3 will start building out with production equipment in May, long before the site construction is complete.

This is not surprising, as it will be, pretty much, a carbon copy of Fremont, so no real design work to do, just replicate.

Because of the incredibly rapid progress on Gigafactory 3 and the direct access to the China EV market, Tesla is likely to surprise with numbers in Q3 and Q4.

I've stuck my stake in the ground.  Tesla will have its first profitable year in 2019.  Every quarter may not be profitable, but the entire year will be.  The indications are extremely strong and it will be borne out over the year.

For those who believe that Tesla is a US car manufacturer which is using the rest of the world as a stopgap until US demand grows again, think again.  Tesla didn't set up to be a US car manufacturer, Tesla set up to be a world vehicle manufacturer of car and commercial electrical vehicles.

This is not about some "open topic".   This is about how to run a business, how those who bet on businesses perceive success and where Tesla is going today.  That is the difference between "Glory" and "Failure".

As a checkpoint Tesla shares are down 9% on yesterday. 

Up until 2018 the Failure part was in doubt.  Now we just need to see whether Tesla is worthy of some, or even any, Glory.
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oren

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1839 on: April 04, 2019, 08:56:40 PM »
The company could still be profitable and financially viable...

Based on what do you make that claim? Honestly, I am curious, cuz I have not seen a single argument put forward about how how Tesla is viable outside of a restructure or wild growth.
I think it could, meaning both options are possible, depending on the numbers. You seem to think there is only one option, that of bankruptcy/restructuring. For me, this stand is far less interesting, as the claim is the same regardless of new data.

If orders continue at 70k per Q, with 20% gross margins, the company can be financially viable depending on order mix, its expense rate and management decisions and execution. The cost cutting that happened in Q1 could serve it well in such a scenario. Of course if sales grow a bit things will be easier. Wild growth is not needed IMHO for financial viability, though it is probably needed to support an elevated stock price.
If orders continue to shrink substantially or it turns out the $35k model does not have any gross margins, the company will not be financially viable, barring a capital injection which will not be easy to do in such a situation.

I personally believe the gross margins will be there, but not sure about sufficient order flow. Time will tell. In any case more data will be available in the Q1 report due in early May. One point I am curious about is the one-time income incurred following the discount on Autopilot and FSD software options (which have ~100% gross margin). This could help shore up Q1 results, while the company adjusts to its lower run rate.

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1840 on: April 04, 2019, 09:31:21 PM »
The 1-year chart of TSLA shares looks awful, as the price keeps getting rejected at the falling moving average - which does not bode well for the future. If it breaks $250 we will be at $200 pretty fast, which will mean that buyers all the way back to 2013 will have at best broken even. Then we have the Musk margin-call price that will make everyone very antsy. Things could get ugly very fast - a bit like Nortel in the dot.com bubble.
I can't comment on the stock price behavior, but my research on the Elon margin call has showed that it is not that simple.
This article provides useful details from the annual Proxy statement of last year.
As of the end of 2017 Musk has pledged 13.8M shares or about ~40% of his 33M stock holdings. At $200 these pledged shares will be worth $2.75B. Tesla policy restricts borrowing to 25% of the value of pledged shares, so the borrowing limit is around $700M, which is probably near enough to actual Musk loans. Hence the famous $200 margin call.
However, a margin call could probably be met easily with pledging more shares. So the potential margin call could be delayed to a share price of $100, and the actual borrowing is around $25 per share owned by Musk.
It depends of course on any changes that took place during 2018, of which more will be known with the upcoming proxy statement. And of course, it also depends on lender behavior.

IMHO, the margin call is not near enough or terrible enough to affect Tesla glory or failure, and this will be dictated by actual financial results going forward.

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1841 on: April 04, 2019, 10:24:24 PM »
Quote
Wild growth is not needed IMHO for financial viability, though it is probably needed to support an elevated stock price.

Exactly. In the mean time R&D continues in AI and battery technology. Also the sight of electric car should become "normal" much faster, highly increasing demand for electric cars, lowering demand for ICEs. Regrettably they failed, but to their glory, instead of folding and giving up, they kept at it and are now producing >5k Model 3 a week.

The more of these cars on the street the more people will swicth from ICEs to EVs.
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1842 on: April 04, 2019, 10:47:28 PM »
The medium-term issue is that Tesla is soon to be losing its nearly uncontested market position, as other car makers finally start putting out some real competition. The prospect of this may also delay people from buying a Tesla if they know a mainstream manufacturer is going to have models out within a year or so. This is especially true for their higher margin variants, with companies like Porsche coming out with models in 2019. The early-adopter rich set that are not price sensitive may just wait for that.

I see Tesla struggling along for a few quarters then striking an alliance/takeover by another manufacturer that can leap frog using Tesla's technical know-how allied to volume manufacturing ability. Either one of the US manufacturers or maybe also the Japanese manufacturers like Toyota that are so far behind. The price would have to be a relatively small percentage of the current valuation though - way below $200.

On the Elon margin call - he could pledge more stock but if the price is falling the financial institution will impose a pretty big "haircut" to limit their risk.

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1843 on: April 05, 2019, 02:59:17 AM »
I made a point that Tesla has positive cash flow.

Tesla has always managed positive cash flow when they roll out a new vehicle....FOR 1 or 2 QUARTERS! Then it is right back to loses (which end up being 10x larger than the short term positive cash flow).

 Q1 will obviously not be cash positive: 31% decline in sales with 15-20% decline in prices.

I made a point that Tesla is funding debt repayments out of cash and not by raising money from the markets.

Yes, this is clearly a problem. Tesla needs a minimum of $10 billion to bring new production capacity online, to build out a service department, to build 10,000 superchargers, to develop model Y and Semi and Pickup and solar roof tile and roadster.

AND YET, they won't/can't raise capital and thus their CAPEX has been tiny.

I made a point that the direction the company is running in now (flight path or trajectory), is positive, as opposed to the constant negative that has been the case every year up until the Model3 ramp up was completed.

Is the Model 3 ramp completed?!? If so, Tesla has no chance of being profitable. They just reported a 31% decrease in sales. They are closing their stores. They are cutting prices to stir demand. Their tax incentives are phasing out. Their CEO is in contempt of court. There are no grown ups left in the C suite. HOW IS ANY OF THIS BULLISH!?!


Ignored, ignored, ignored.
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1844 on: April 05, 2019, 03:05:46 AM »
Regrettably they failed, but to their glory, instead of folding and giving up, they kept at it and are now producing >5k Model 3 a week.

SWING AND A MISS.

Pretty brutal when you try to include a positive, but it is plainly false.

Q3,18: 4100
Q4,18: 4700
Q1,19: 4800

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-04-04/model-3-tracker-misses-tesla-s-production-shortfall

And don't forget...Musk said their was a 0 percent chance production would be less than 10,000 a week by the end of 2018. Oops.
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1845 on: April 05, 2019, 03:11:45 AM »
"When asked about the status of the production of the new version of the Model 3, Tesla declined to comment.

Furthermore, Tesla doesn’t seem to know the weight of the Model 3 with Standard Battery pack."


https://electrek.co/2019/04/04/tesla-model-3-base-doesnt-exist/


Remember when Tesla was telling customers the base model would be deliverable in weeks, while telling investors that in would be this summerish.

Lies, lies, and constant lies. It would be tough to have tethered ones sense of dignity to this company. I truly pity the fanbois/bulls. They will leave this whole debacle angry and confused.
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1846 on: April 05, 2019, 03:14:46 AM »
Tesla Is Like a Soviet Factory: Production With No Concern for Actual Demand

https://www.thestreet.com/investing/tesla-stock-demand-figures-not-production-figures-14917730


What "The Street" doesn't understand is that there is the demand...but people just literally don't have enough money in their bank accounts.  ;)
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1847 on: April 05, 2019, 09:45:45 AM »
Well, I doubt there will be a significant verdict. Probably some more limitations for Musk and a small fine. Not small for us, but for companies the size of Tesla it is.

That can even have a positive impact for Tesla.
And I can imagine they tried to deliver as much as possible in Q4 and for Model S and X will have had a high demand peak, because of tax breaks, and to have better financial reports which will impact supply ánd demand in Q1.
If I wanted a Tesla I would have had it at the end of 2018 and not in Q1.

So having a peak in Q4 and a decent drop in Q1 is normal, especially for products with these kind of decreasing/ending tax breaks.

I think for the next 3 months there won't be a problem for Tesla, they apparently have enough cash available, I think as long as Musk behaves on Twitter, Q1 financial report is acceptable with these production numbers, stock price will slowly rise because more and more Model 3 will be seen in the wild, which will probably create positive talk about Tesla, improving investor trust, combined with a to-positive-Musk tweet somewhere in May/June. Q2 production should be record high and I think delivery should also be at least near record lvl's (they will have cars in transit to Europe/Asia) otherwise stock will go down below current lvl's.

edit:
and in response to Lurk, they have to ramp up production for the 35k model quickly, because I think a lot of people who want to buy an electric car normally buy cars in the 20-30k range (or lease them @ work) and because of lower expected maintenance and fuel costs, combined with tax breaks, the 35k Model 3 is viable for those people.
« Last Edit: April 05, 2019, 09:50:56 AM by RikW »

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1848 on: April 05, 2019, 12:38:09 PM »
I posted a reply on http://www.V2G.co.uk/ and here it is

I posted a reply too, but it's rather long winded. Here's the introduction:

Quote
Quite so Matthew. Make America great again! Patenting the human genome. Whatever next?

Here is the Wikipedia article on the concept of a microgrid:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Microgrid
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1849 on: April 05, 2019, 01:54:22 PM »
Tesla Model 3 Demand Explained

Summary - Tesla is moving from a supply constrained into a demand constrained market for the Model 3.

The North American backlog for the higher priced variants was exhausted in Q4 of 2018.
Since then, Tesla has been able to pull other demand levers such as the MR, the EU, and China backlog and the SR variant.
However, these are creating only short-term pockets of demand, the question of whether there is enough sustained demand for 7,000 or even 5,000/week production remains unanswered.
In this article, I analyze the entries in the online tracker spreadsheets to try to provide an answer.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4252882-tesla-model-3-demand-explained

detailed article by a 'shorter'
A refreshingly interesting and informative article from the short side. I will study it in detail later to see if I can dig up any more insights or any obvious biases, but I really like the approach.