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Archimid

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2950 on: July 22, 2019, 05:57:26 PM »
This doesn't prove margins are better - Tesla could choose to lower the margin to preserve order rate.

Or it could do so to increase order rates.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

DaveHitz

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2951 on: July 22, 2019, 06:55:25 PM »
How will Elon Musk be viewed a generation or two in the future?

Terry, I guess that depends on whether he finally succeeds or whether it all falls flat on its face.


I think Elon will be considered a genius even if Toyota (or whoever) starts mass producing EVs and kills Tesla.

Consider Edison. He strongly believed in D.C. power and worked hard to convince the world that Westinghouse's A.C. power was doomed. Edison lost that battle. Despite Edison's hard work, all of our houses are AC. But we still see him as the genius who kicked off electrified cities.

If EVs eventually defeat ICE cars, as I expect they will, I think future generations will see Must as the genius who kicked off the electric car revolution. And this will be true even if other manufacturers eventually kill Tesla. Must said it was possible, showed it was possible, and convinced the world.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2952 on: July 22, 2019, 06:58:10 PM »
With the new reduction in the federal credit from $3750 to $1875,  Tesla had to reduce prices to avoid a big demand cliff, which may yet still happen.
This doesn't prove margins are better - Tesla could choose to lower the margin to preserve order rate.

An $1875 difference is hardly a deal-breaker for most customers in this market.  And, ordering standard paint, wheels or interior instead of an upgrade could save as much.
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TerryM

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2953 on: July 22, 2019, 07:14:30 PM »
Do Americans still have a warm place in their heart for Edison?
I'm amazed


Terry

philopek

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2954 on: July 22, 2019, 07:46:52 PM »
How will Elon Musk be viewed a generation or two in the future?

Terry, I guess that depends on whether he finally succeeds or whether it all falls flat on its face.


I think Elon will be considered a genius even if Toyota (or whoever) starts mass producing EVs and kills Tesla.

Consider Edison. He strongly believed in D.C. power and worked hard to convince the world that Westinghouse's A.C. power was doomed. Edison lost that battle. Despite Edison's hard work, all of our houses are AC. But we still see him as the genius who kicked off electrified cities.

If EVs eventually defeat ICE cars, as I expect they will, I think future generations will see Must as the genius who kicked off the electric car revolution. And this will be true even if other manufacturers eventually kill Tesla. Must said it was possible, showed it was possible, and convinced the world.

Just read up the definition of "Genius"

There are many things involved here like greed, dedication, seeking public attention, seeking a business in general, luck and of course a few "modern"skills like networking and salesmanship.

But none of this make him a genius.

I tell you when i consider that man a genius:

The day Tesla makes a profit over a period of several years and payed their debts down to a level that is withing the healthy range.

Besides that and despite all the not so great things about that man, he certainly deserves
some respect for pulling this and other projects off and keep things running up to this day.

Question is, how could he and his various projects survive up till now?

I. Because his Investors and Followers are narrow minded and greedy?

II Because he has certain skills and uses them most efficiently?

III. IMO most probably both

Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2955 on: July 22, 2019, 08:28:19 PM »
With the new reduction in the federal credit from $3750 to $1875,  Tesla had to reduce prices to avoid a big demand cliff, which may yet still happen.
This doesn't prove margins are better - Tesla could choose to lower the margin to preserve order rate.

An $1875 difference is hardly a deal-breaker for most customers in this market.  And, ordering standard paint, wheels or interior instead of an upgrade could save as much.


Quote
Elon Musk (@elonmusk) 7/18/19, 2:34 PM
@cleantechnica Exactly. There is no “MSRP”, only “P”.
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1151923272583266304
Referring to the following article:
Remember, Tesla Is Both An Auto Manufacturer AND An Auto Dealer — Prices Will Change Frequently
https://cleantechnica.com/2019/07/18/remember-tesla-is-both-an-auto-manufacturer-and-an-auto-dealer-prices-will-change-frequently/

——
“We continue to target a 25% non-GAAP gross margin on Model S, Model X and Model 3, depending on variant mix and option take rates as our product offerings change.”
- Tesla First Quarter 2019 Update

“Orders generated during the quarter exceeded our deliveries, thus we are entering Q3 with an increase in our order backlog. We believe we are well positioned to continue growing total production and deliveries in Q3.”
- Tesla Q2 2019 Vehicle Production & Deliveries

Quote
Tesla Driver  (@M_xalher) 7/17/19, 8:11 AM
A colleague rode with me in the Model 3 on a business trip last week. Volvo guy.
Got this on Sunday: “Guess who ordered a Model 3?! Now we’re talking  8)
He too is a @Tesla guy now. It’s spreading like wildfire over here in Norway

https://twitter.com/m_xalher/status/1151464562614505477
Textpic (Norwegian) at the link.

——
Last week, I saw my second and third Teslas — still a shocker in this low-income region in the boonies:  A Model 3 parked at a museum… and a Model X driving out of my local Chick-Fil-A!


95,200 new Tesla owners in Q2 showing off their new cars, generating ever more sales.  Where would any “big demand cliff” come from?
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Zythryn

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2956 on: July 22, 2019, 08:31:19 PM »
...

The day Tesla makes a profit over a period of several years and payed their debts down to a level that is withing the healthy range.


For a rapidly growing company, profit over several years without exception is very unusual.
As for the debt point, at what level would you consider “Healthy”?  And how would you measure it?

philopek

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2957 on: July 22, 2019, 09:06:27 PM »
...

The day Tesla makes a profit over a period of several years and payed their debts down to a level that is withing the healthy range.


For a rapidly growing company, profit over several years without exception is very unusual.
As for the debt point, at what level would you consider “Healthy”?  And how would you measure it?

Tesla is not a startup anymore and not growing healthy. Speed is not a quality when it comes at the cost of sustainability or is even threatening sheer existence of an entity. This is universal law, not even restricted to business.

There are well know term for the concept of borrowing money under false pretenses and
even more so to raise new money to plug older holes.

As to healthy level of debts, that is a level of debts that can be payed back and interests can be paid in time, not from new debts but from profits.

The moment the interest rate is starting to eat a debtor up the non-healthy range is certainly reached and this includes a certain range of future interest rates.

As to the precise definition, should you be interested, google is your friend, this thread and forum is not made to post dozens of pages on the mater to explain and proof what's wrong with how Tesla is managed.

Just remember me and others when the day has come. Once the illusionists recognized that all is lost, they will turn against Musk the same way they hype him now.

I predict that the man will soon face dire consequences once his card-house has collapsed.

Even though one can respect him to make it thus far and raise such an enterprise from almost nothing, the fact that there no stable business model in sight that will be able to pay his investors, not even talking about a regular dividend etc. that long this is a ponzi scheme that one day will be named exactly that.

Until that day has come, people will be split between conservative views of business conduct and
admiration to bring something up this way.

FWIW, if you only start looking up the age = level of experience of bulls and bears, you'll have your answer, except in case that you deny that experience is almost not replaceable.

There is a saying concerning ICEs, that cylinder volume at the end of the day cannot be replaced by any means, there will always be downsides for "enthusiasts" ;)

The same applies to how humans look at things. Our views are either ego-based or experience based or a mix of both.

I hope that this does not come across offensive and i don't try to take away from Elon his merrits.

Only thing i'm saying is that it won't work THIS WAY and many will loose their pension and
that someone who has to play a show to get his way is not a genius but a scamster if anything.

oren

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2958 on: July 22, 2019, 09:25:57 PM »
As a businessman Musk is often a shady character (especially when he feels his back is against the wall), but as a facilitator of engineering achievements he is a genius.
Coming from a physics background even though I am employed in financial markets, I admire someone for engineering/product achievements much easier than I admire someone for making a profit. Lots of people make profits, in good and bad ways, but only a few caused the invention and popularization of great EVs, and of relatively cheap space launches with reusable rockets, with or without profits. There are much better and easier scams than those involving solving "impossible" engineering problems.

philopek

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2959 on: July 22, 2019, 10:28:36 PM »
As a businessman Musk is often a shady character (especially when he feels his back is against the wall), but as a facilitator of engineering achievements he is a genius.
Coming from a physics background even though I am employed in financial markets, I admire someone for engineering/product achievements much easier than I admire someone for making a profit. Lots of people make profits, in good and bad ways, but only a few caused the invention and popularization of great EVs, and of relatively cheap space launches with reusable rockets, with or without profits. There are much better and easier scams than those involving solving "impossible" engineering problems.

but he is not an engineer and 99% of all components he is purchasing from those who do the real engineering and investment to make achievements in engineering happen.

Nevertheless, i won't take it further, i made my point and for everyone who really wants to know, the term genius is clearly defined, not much room for interpretation there and the fact that most once meaningful terms have been abused to obsolescence over the last few decades does not make it better.

If you paid attention, i used the term "respect" which is appropriate IMO without using any terms like genius that apply to far less humans that we nowadays easily read.

The news are full of "Stars" and "Geniuses" so they had to differ between "A" "B" and "C" Stars
and i hope we won't have to do that with the "Geniuses" ;)

Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2960 on: July 23, 2019, 02:58:50 PM »
Improving production efficiency and cost.

Tesla Model Y manufacturing improvements highlighted in published patent application
Quote
In an effort to continue streamlining its manufacturing process, Tesla has developed a new vehicle frame casting machine. The specifics are described in a patent application published on July 18, 2019 titled, “Multi-Directional Unibody Casting Machine for a Vehicle Frame and Associated Methods.” CEO Elon Musk previously referred to such a machine that was under development during his conversation with Ryan McCaffrey of the Ride the Lightning podcast in June. His comments at the time were in reference to manufacturing improvements being made specifically for Model Y production.

“There are some manufacturing improvements for the [Model] Y. The rear underbody we’re moving to an aluminum…casting instead of a series of stamped steel and aluminum pieces,” Musk revealed in the interview. “When we get the big casting machine, it’ll go from 70 parts to 1 with a significant reduction in capital expenditure on all the robots to put those parts together.”

As described, Tesla’s new casting machine will have a central hub to receive several dies that are assembled into specific portions of a vehicle frame before being cast. The dies can transform into multiple configurations along the X, Y, and Z axis, essentially forming into numerous part molds. Further suggested by the patent application is that a full car frame may be made with a single cast using these transforming capabilities.

Casting molds are common in car manufacturing; however, single part molds are often what’s used, and bolts and welding are then subsequently required. A single casting machine configurable for several parts has many advantages, including reduced build time, operation costs, manufacturing costs, factory footprint, tooling costs, and equipment quantity. Using a casting machine for the Model Y will also reduce the weight of the all-electric crossover, according to Musk.
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-model-y-manufacturing-improvements-patent/
Image below:  US Patent Publication No. 20190217380 | Tesla/USPTOmore

—-
Patent for stiff wiring that robots can handle, rather than requiring a human to perform the job.
Tesla reveals revolutionary new wiring architecture to help robots build upcoming cars like Model Y - Electrek
https://electrek.co/2019/07/22/tesla-revolutionary-wiring-architecture-robots-model-y/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2961 on: July 23, 2019, 03:00:42 PM »
Tesla Gigafactory 3 shows remarkable progress as site gets graced by major gov’t official
Quote
...
These recent developments in the Gigafactory 3 complex come on the heels of a high-profile visit by Shanghai Party Secretary Li Qiang, who emphasized his full support for the construction of the upcoming Tesla Model 3 and Model Y production facility. Qiang’s visit is particularly notable, especially since party secretaries hold a prominent place in the Chinese government, exceeding that of officials like mayors. In a way, Qiang’s visit is the latest sign yet that the local government is fully backing the Silicon Valley-based electric car maker.

Earlier this month, reports from Chinese media pointed at Tesla starting the employment of its first batch of workers by the end of July. While this announcement seemed incredibly ambitious given that Gigafactory 3 is still under construction, footage taken of seemingly completed offices inside the Shanghai-based complex have revealed that some sections of the site are already hosting offices. Tesla has reportedly deployed 30 overseas employees to Gigafactory 3, who are currently working closely with a team of 140 Tesla China employees. By the end of this month, this number would likely see a lot of growth. ...
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-gigafactory-3-nearly-complete-govt-official-visit-video/
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TerryM

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2962 on: July 23, 2019, 03:22:25 PM »

Sig

In the 10 years that the Chinese have been building their high speed rail network they've shown that the're capable of amazing feats. Once they begin the substation to power the factory it will come on line rapidly.

They built wonderful railroads in Canada and the US many decades ago. We just never did much to update them.

I think they're shooting at completing the substation in November and the first cars will be coming off the line soon after that.


Terry


SteveMDFP

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2963 on: July 23, 2019, 03:38:13 PM »
Tesla Gigafactory 3 shows remarkable progress as site gets graced by major gov’t official
Quote
...
Qiang’s visit is the latest sign yet that the local government is fully backing the Silicon Valley-based electric car maker. ...

This is what makes me think Tesla will succeed overall.  The China factory is unlikely to fail, with Party backing.  Heck, they prop up all kinds of unprofitable state enterprises, even.  From Shanghai, Tesla can supply all of Asia and Australia/NZ--regardless of Trump's trade wars. 

Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2964 on: July 23, 2019, 08:43:29 PM »
From:  https://twitter.com/icannot_enough/status/1153709826075181056

Graphic representation of all vehicle sales in the U.S. by company, Q2 YoY.
Find Tesla in the upper right!
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2965 on: July 24, 2019, 03:55:02 AM »
Barron’s.  Wow!
Tom Choi, Third Square Capital  July 23, 2019. This article first appeared on SumZero, the world’s largest research community of buyside investment professionals.


Tesla Stock Can Triple in Price: Fund Manager
Quote
Target price: $890.00
Recent price: $255.68
Timeframe: 2-5 years

Thesis
We believe Tesla will become a leading player in the more than $2 trillion global automotive industry and the recent negative concerns around the company create a great buying opportunity at the current share price. In our view, this 11-year-old American auto maker will likely become the largest auto maker globally by 2035 as Tesla has 1) an outstanding disruptive product portfolio that will drive consumer demand in the near-term, 2) a strong brand as an electric car manufacturer that will drive long-term revenue growth, 3) minimal competitive risk thanks to other disrupted legacy competitors’ inability to adapt from internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles to electric vehicles, and 4) a competitive cost structure through vertical integration and little need for marketing, which will help Tesla reach above-industry-average margins.

Why Tesla Is a Great Company
1. Tesla’s long-term growth will be driven by its disruptive, exceptional product portfolio in the near term.
Today, Tesla’s Model S, Model X and Model 3 are by far the best automobiles consumers can purchase among similarly priced options in the market. The current technologies deployed in Tesla’s electric cars are uncontested by those of competitors in terms of driving performance, safety, need of maintenance, etc. For the first half of 2019, Tesla sold 32,000 more cars year over year in the U.S. while the other legacy premium brands in total declined by 22,000 units, which is a true testament to the quality of Tesla’s product.
Tesla is best positioned to be the leader in autonomous driving. Having a large data set is instrumental to the quality and advancement of autonomous driving technology. With currently over 1 billion miles traveled in Autopilot to date, Tesla has a strong advantage over other self-driving AI companies. By comparison, Google’s Waymo reached 10 million autonomous miles in October of 2018.
Proliferation of supporting infrastructure makes Tesla vehicles increasingly more attractive. While range anxiety was historically a concern for EV consumers, it is becoming less of a concern for Tesla owners thanks to an ever-growing Supercharging network. On the contrary, drivers of EVs of other brands still have to rely on publicly available charging stations.
2. Strong brand as the pioneer of electric vehicles will secure long-term growth.

Thanks to the aforementioned disruptive EV technology, Tesla, in just a few years’ time, has earned a luxury car brand image that is comparable to those of premium German brands such as Mercedes-Benz, BMW and Audi.
We believe the brand power of Tesla, as the pioneer of the electric car, will continue to strengthen along with the growth of its business. This will provide a strong moat in a competitive automobile market and will allow Tesla to maintain a favorable market share in the long run.
3. Minimal competitive risk thanks to other legacy competitors’ inability to adapt to the transition of consumer demand from ICE vehicles to EVs.
The $2 trillion global automotive industry is undergoing a massive shift toward electric vehicles. According to an AAA study in 2018, 20% of Americans are likely to buy an EV in the future, up from 15% in 2017.
Unlike the common view in Wall Street, we see little competitive threat from the new and upcoming EV launches of the legacy auto makers for at least the next 10 years. Even in the past, Tesla’s products were not just competing against other EVs but all other cars of similar price range. This is because from a consumers’ perspective, when they are looking for a new car, they are looking for the best “car,” not just the best “EV.” Thus, it is the ICE cars of these legacy auto makers that are doomed to lose market share to EVs, which leads to cannibalization of ICE vehicles by EVs of these legacy auto makers.
Can the giant legacy auto makers compete?

According to a study by Equilar, the median tenure for CEOs at S&P 500 companies was five years in 2017. Unlike Elon Musk, the largest shareholder of Tesla, who makes decisions for long-term success, CEOs and senior executives of legacy auto makers who are hired hands are more incentivized to run the companies for short-term performance. For example, Volkswagen’s CEO announced in September 2013 that the company would become the leader in electric mobility by 2018. However, the company is still far from meeting that goal.
Furthermore, over time, as some of these legacy auto makers struggle financially, it will affect their brand image, which will have a significant negative impact on their future business.
4. Automation and economies of scale will continue to improve margins, and Tesla, as a pure EV maker, will achieve margins that have never been seen by other ICE auto makers.

Furthermore, the battery is the single largest component of EV production cost. And Tesla, with its best-in-class battery cost and efficiency, and being free of legacy ICE components, allows it to offer the lowest price per mile range.
Currently, Tesla’s gross margin is already nearing 20% at only 3% to 5% of the production volume of legacy auto makers. This compares to the average automotive industry gross margin of 12.5%, mainly from the cost advantage of producing electric vehicles. We expect this gap to widen as Tesla’s margins improve. The fact that Tesla has little need for marketing further expands the margin advantage.

Risks and the Market’s Concerns

   •    Tesla might face default, given more than $9 billion of net debt, recent quarter’s cash burn of $1.6 billion and the current cash level of only $2.2 billion.
As long as the company can prove that its products are in high demand, capital markets will provide capital with no fail. In early May, Tesla raised another $2.7 billion, a mix of debt and equity raise.
   •    Tesla has missed quarterly delivery targets several times, rendering statements from CEO Elon Musk and management less trustworthy.
As long-term investors, we do not focus on quarterly results compared to expectations. Fast growing businesses must build factories, automate manufacturing, expand into new foreign markets, etc. It is reasonable for a pioneer to overestimate targets sometimes. If we look at the bigger picture, in 2018, Tesla produced and delivered almost 250,000 cars; this was more than five times the volume sold three years ago while most other auto makers barely grew for this three-year period.
https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-stock-can-triple-in-price-fund-manager-51563907431?redirect=amp#click=https://t.co/k83ObeBMSD
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GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2966 on: July 24, 2019, 07:30:46 AM »
As a businessman Musk is often a shady character (especially when he feels his back is against the wall), but as a facilitator of engineering achievements he is a genius.
Coming from a physics background even though I am employed in financial markets, I admire someone for engineering/product achievements much easier than I admire someone for making a profit. Lots of people make profits, in good and bad ways, but only a few caused the invention and popularization of great EVs, and of relatively cheap space launches with reusable rockets, with or without profits. There are much better and easier scams than those involving solving "impossible" engineering problems.

(I respect oren's opinion and thought-process in general, but...)

This is THE big myth.

"ELON MUSK IS A LIAR AND A BAD PERSON, BUT HE FACILITATES THE INNOVATION NECESSARY TO TRANSFORM THE WORLD IN THE TIME FRAME NEEDED TO SAVE THE WORLD."

But it is totally untrue, and the only supporting points to this claim ever provided are easily disprovable.

Musk has not facilitated ANY impressive engineering feats. None.

Tesla has no proprietary technical advantage. None.

Tesla/Musk are amazing...if a person applies how much intellectual scrutiny? None.

big time oops

GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2967 on: July 24, 2019, 07:33:01 AM »
95,200 new Tesla owners in Q2 showing off their new cars, generating ever more sales.  Where would any “big demand cliff” come from?

This is simplistic and unscientific thinking.

Companies lower prices by 20% in a year without increasing production FOR ONLY ONE REASON. weak demand
big time oops

Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2968 on: July 24, 2019, 06:56:33 PM »
Quote
Ihor Dusaniwsky (@ihors3) 7/24/19, 11:04 AM
$TSLA short int is $10.17 bn; 39.10 mm shs shorted; 29.69% of float; 0.90% borrow fee. Shs shorted are down -1.7 mm, -4.10%, over the past week as stock price rose +3.09%. We saw 2.4 mm shs of short covering yesterday. Shorts are down -$1.50 bn in mark-to-market losses in July
https://twitter.com/ihors3/status/1154044702796075009
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2969 on: July 24, 2019, 07:50:04 PM »
Improving life for people with disabilities.

Driving a Tesla Without Arms | Life with Feet Vlog
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crandles

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2970 on: July 24, 2019, 11:24:17 PM »
Loss $408m
https://ir.tesla.com/static-files/1e70a30c-20a7-48b3-a1f6-696a7c517959

previously wrote

Quote
So q1 automotive sales $3,509m cost of automotive sales $2,856m for 63000 vehicles
become for 95200 vehicles: sales $5302m coas $4,316m
Automotive sales gross profit improves from $653m to $986m an improvement of $333m

If these assumptions are reasonable and everything else stays the same, that means loss reduces from $702m to $369m.

Automotive sales were  $ 5,168m
Automotive cost of sales $ 4,254m
Automotive gross profit $   894m

So automotive gross profit was worse than my simple calcs by a 'just' $92million.
And overall loss worse by just $39m.

I am inclined to suggest remarkably close for such simplistic adjustments.

Loss of $408m is a little larger than R&D at $324m
« Last Edit: July 24, 2019, 11:41:50 PM by crandles »

Tor Bejnar

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2971 on: July 24, 2019, 11:54:42 PM »
Congratulations Crandles!  I'm impressed (but I'm not at all surprised you had ballpark accuracy).
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crandles

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2972 on: July 25, 2019, 12:08:50 AM »
Selected highlights:

Quote
During the quarter, a majority of orders continued to
be for a long-range battery option and the Model 3
average selling price (ASP) was stable at
approximately $50,000. At the same time,
manufacturing costs continued to decline.

The production rate of Model 3 continued to improve
gradually throughout the quarter, breaking a monthly
record in May and then again in June. All
manufacturing equipment in Fremont has
demonstrated capability of a 7,000 Model 3 vehicles
per week run rate, which we continue to work to
increase. We aim to produce 10,000 total vehicles of
all models per week by the end of 2019.

Gigafactory Shanghai continues to take shape, and in Q2 we started to move machinery into the facility for the first phase of production there. This will be a simplified, more cost-effective version of our Model 3 line with capacity of 150,000 units per year

Model Y: Preparations for Model Y production in Fremont began in Q2. Due to a significant overlap of components between Model 3 and Model Y, we are able to leverage existing manufacturing designs in the development of the Model Y production facilities.
Additionally, we are making progress managing Model Y cost with only a minimal cost premium expected over Model 3. Due to the large market size for SUVs, as well as higher ASPs, we believe Model Y will be a more profitable product than the Model 3.

 As our fleet continues to grow, our service and Supercharger capacity continues to expand. In Q2, we added 101 vehicles to our Mobile Service fleet and opened 25 new store and service locations. While our customer fleet size has doubled in the past 12 months, our service losses remained stable year-on-year and service wait times have improved considerably. Supercharger
capacity has grown to roughly 1,600 charging locations worldwide. In addition to the number of charging locations, we are also increasing the rate of throughput of vehicles. We expect the average charging session at our powerful V3 Superchargers will drop to around 15 minutes, which will effectively double the overall throughput rate per stall compared to our V2 Superchargers, easily keeping pace with our fleet growth.

Energy: Powerwall and Powerpack deployment grew by 81% in the second quarter to a record 415 MWh. Powerwalls are now installed at more than 50,000 sites. Additional cell supply combined with our new module line designed by Tesla Grohmann enabled a step
change in energy storage production. Solar retrofit deployments declined sequentially to 29 MW. We are in the process of improving many aspects of this business to increase deployments.

Outlook
We remain on track to launch local production of the Model 3 in China by the end of the year and Model Y in Fremont by fall of 2020. We are also accelerating our European Gigafactory efforts and are hoping to finalize a location choice in the coming quarters.

We are working to increase our deliveries sequentially and annually, with some expected fluctuations from seasonality. This is consistent with our previous guidance of 360,000 to 400,000 vehicle deliveries this year.

Additionally, we expect positive quarterly free cash flow, with possible temporary exceptions, particularly around the launch and ramp of new products. We believe our business has grown to the point of being self-funding.

We continue to aim for positive GAAP net income in Q3 and the following quarters, although continuous volume growth, capacity expansion and cash generation will remain the main focus.

Our 2019 capex is expected to be about $1.5 to $2.0 billion, a reduction from prior guidance. We continue to find opportunities to improve capital efficiency and shift cash outflows to future periods. This estimate includes the development of our main projects, on the timelines referenced, and to expand our Supercharger and service networks.

TerryM

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2973 on: July 25, 2019, 01:18:23 AM »
TSLA stock is down <10% since the reveal.


Terry

GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2974 on: July 25, 2019, 01:55:52 AM »
Lets guess at the loss Tesla will post in Q2!

I'm going with $350-$400M.

I'm not using any math from figures specific to the quarter, just following the long term trend of mini profits with a new model, followed by ebb back to flamethrower-to-cash land.

Congrats to me! I was very close. Actual loss $408M.'

Congrats to everyone else who also responded to my suggestion...NOBODY.

Special congrats to crandles for giving me a hard time about my post.
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GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2975 on: July 25, 2019, 01:56:52 AM »
JB is leaving the company. Kinda reminds me of when Skilling left Enron and Lay was the only OG left...and then they went BK in a few month.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2976 on: July 25, 2019, 02:04:25 AM »
From the financial results call:

Not one analyst on the call was concerned about the GAAP losses.  One suggested he expected to see headlines that having $5 Billion in cash was too much. :)

Labor costs per car have decreased about 50% in one year, allowing price decreases to make the cars more affordable. Margins of 25 to 30% and more are expected after another year or less. (Vs. ~19% for Q2)
Deliveries and production continue to increase on a clear exponential curve: doubling every year.  This may be unprecedented for an item as large and complex as an EV.
Expect “volume production” in China by the end of the year.
Model S/X will be only about 4 to 5% of production as Model 3/Y ramp, so they are less important to the bottom line.
Expect announcement about European factory by the end of the year.
Lathrop is “nothing special,” just a more efficient distribution center.
Re changing to all-online ordering: how has this affected orders?  EM:  word of mouth from new customers in a region is incredibly good at driving in more orders.
JB Straubel “is not disappearing,” but is moving to a Senior Advisor role rather than an executive one.  He and Drew have been working together for years, so the transition should be seamless.
« Last Edit: July 25, 2019, 01:14:25 PM by Sigmetnow »
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GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2977 on: July 25, 2019, 02:09:49 AM »
First half of 2019 vs second half of 2018:

-Sold fewer cars

-Drastically reduced capex

-Margins way down

-New models at least a year away

-Competition drastically increasing



But trust the bulls, this is a growth company. And the margins will be huge, because...some reason no reason!
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GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2978 on: July 25, 2019, 02:12:27 AM »
Margins of 25 to 30% and more are expected after another year or less. (Vs. ~19% for Q2)

This is totally against the trend. Is there at least theory as to WHY this would happen. (Also, please note, Tesla has ALWAYS said their margins will be in the 25%-30% range in another year...hows that going?)
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2979 on: July 25, 2019, 02:16:27 AM »
Quote
Don’t tell the Tesla bears that on average over the last three years, Q1 and Q2 only accounted for 37% of the yearly sales total. 
They are convinced $TSLA won’t hit guidance but haven’t noticed this trend I guess.
Q1 2018 accounted for 12% of total #Tesla sales for the year.
https://twitter.com/28delayslater/status/1140621975561355264
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2980 on: July 25, 2019, 02:47:52 AM »
Margins of 25 to 30% and more are expected after another year or less. (Vs. ~19% for Q2)

This is totally against the trend. Is there at least theory as to WHY this would happen. (Also, please note, Tesla has ALWAYS said their margins will be in the 25%-30% range in another year...hows that going?)

Given that the industry average is 12.5% (much lower for other EVs), Tesla is doing great!  OEMs can only wish they could have margins like Tesla’s.  :)
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GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2981 on: July 25, 2019, 03:08:23 AM »
Margins of 25 to 30% and more are expected after another year or less. (Vs. ~19% for Q2)

This is totally against the trend. Is there at least theory as to WHY this would happen. (Also, please note, Tesla has ALWAYS said their margins will be in the 25%-30% range in another year...hows that going?)


Given that the industry average is 12.5% (much lower for other EVs), Tesla is doing great!  OEMs can only wish they could have margins like Tesla’s.  :)

Industry average is 12. Tesla has been going lower every quarter and is now at 18. Soon to be at 30. Ya. Sure.
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GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2982 on: July 25, 2019, 03:12:59 AM »
Quote
Don’t tell the Tesla bears that on average over the last three years, Q1 and Q2 only accounted for 37% of the yearly sales total. 
https://twitter.com/28delayslater/status/1140621975561355264

What a red herring!

There is one reason why Tesla sold more cars in the 2nd half of the years ...new model began mass production in the 2nd half of last year!

Why don't you at least provide a theoretical rationale for your claims?
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2983 on: July 25, 2019, 03:24:05 AM »
Quote
Currently, Tesla’s gross margin is already nearing 20% at only 3% to 5% of the production volume of legacy auto makers. This compares to the average automotive industry gross margin of 12.5%, mainly from the cost advantage of producing electric vehicles. We expect this gap to widen as Tesla’s margins improve. The fact that Tesla has little need for marketing further expands the margin advantage.
https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-stock-can-triple-in-price-fund-manager-51563907431?redirect=amp#click=https://t.co/k83ObeBMSD
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GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2984 on: July 25, 2019, 03:29:49 AM »
Can sig actually write anything, or is it all vague quotes/links that, quite naturally, never get to the point?!?


Anyways, your savior is a total con-artist...

The rocket he built to take us to mars has fallen over in a 40 mph wind, broke in two, been sorta rebuilt, tried to fly, and failed in a fireball. It is pathetic. What does he say about it:

"Sending crews to Mars in four years, I think that, that sounds pretty doable," Musk said. "Like, internally, we would aim for two years, and then reality might be four."

Please, come to reality. It is fairly bleak, but at least it is real.

https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/spacex-elon-musk-says-he-can-put-a-man-on-mars-in-four-years/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2985 on: July 25, 2019, 03:31:05 AM »
Tesla Sold More Model 3s In Q2 2019 Than GM Sold Chevy Bolts Worldwide Since Its Birth
https://cleantechnica.com/2019/07/24/tesla-sold-more-model-3s-in-q2-2019-than-gm-sold-chevy-bolts-worldwide-since-its-birth/

—-
Tesla deploys first solar power system in 24 hours after ordering online
https://electrek.co/2019/07/24/tesla-solar-power-system-24-hours-ordering-online/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2986 on: July 25, 2019, 04:08:13 AM »
Quote
Additionally, we expect positive quarterly free cash flow, with possible temporary exceptions, particularly around the launch and ramp of new products. We believe our business has grown to the point of being self-funding.

We continue to aim for positive GAAP net income in Q3 and the following quarters, although continuous volume growth, capacity expansion and cash generation will remain the main focus.

Our 2019 capex is expected to be about $1.5 to $2.0 billion, a reduction from prior guidance. We continue to find opportunities to improve capital efficiency and shift cash outflows to future periods. This estimate includes the development of our main projects, on the timelines referenced, and to expand our Supercharger and service networks.
- Tesla Q2’19 Update Letter
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rboyd

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2987 on: July 25, 2019, 06:34:33 AM »
Tesla needs more time to turn profit; founding engineer steps down

Quote
Tesla Inc (TSLA.O) on Wednesday pushed back its profit timeline once again after missing financial targets in the second quarter, while announcing that the pioneer of the company’s electric batteries, J.B. Straubel, was stepping down from his role as chief technology officer.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-results/tesla-needs-more-time-to-turn-profit-founding-engineer-steps-down-idUSKCN1UJ2XW

$TSLA rallied more than I expected in the past few weeks, but bear market rallies can always surprise. Looking like that rally was finished with the results, we will have to see if that is confirmed tomorrow. If so, $TSLA should be taking out the recent lows and accelerating down after that. The shorts will be emboldened if they gain from an 11% plus one day drop.

No proof in the results that the company can be sustainably profitable, with those results benefitting from ongoing cuts to capex when high levels of capex are required to keep growing the company and deal with the incoming competition from the likes of Porsche (which reduces demand for their higher priced more profitable models) and the intense competition in China.

The co-founder bailing out, and cashing out options with 3 years left in them is not a good sign.


Archimid

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2988 on: July 25, 2019, 07:19:43 AM »
The more Model 3 they sell, the more profit. Giga 3 was genius. Model Y production in Fremont with model 3 parts. I love it.

Lots of work to be done but this is looking better than ever. That cash flow tho. Good stuff.

Crandles, good jobs with the prediction.
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oren

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2989 on: July 25, 2019, 07:33:12 AM »
$TSLA rallied more than I expected in the past few weeks, but bear market rallies can always surprise. Looking like that rally was finished with the results, we will have to see if that is confirmed tomorrow. If so, $TSLA should be taking out the recent lows and accelerating down after that. The shorts will be emboldened if they gain from an 11% plus one day drop.

No proof in the results that the company can be sustainably profitable, with those results benefitting from ongoing cuts to capex when high levels of capex are required to keep growing the company and deal with the incoming competition from the likes of Porsche (which reduces demand for their higher priced more profitable models) and the intense competition in China.
The report was quite bad, at least at the headline level (did not read the conf. call transcript yet). Losses were larger than expected, margins slowly deteriorating, Q3 profit expectations were dialed back, and mention of the annual guidance seemed to be half-hearted.
Despite all that, I don't expect the stock to take out the recent lows so easily, as the big fear of running out of cash has receded for now. that should buy Tesla some time to make good on some upcoming events - starting production in the Shanghai GF, unveiling the Pickup (which I expect will be a downside initially), and hopefully starting production of Model Y.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2990 on: July 25, 2019, 01:18:20 PM »
GSY,

Per Neven, this thread is specifically for Tesla articles and links.

Where are yours?
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2991 on: July 25, 2019, 02:33:49 PM »
Gigafactory Shanghai continues to take shape, and in Q2 we started to move machinery into the facility for the first phase of production there. This will be a simplified, more cost-effective version of our Model 3 line with capacity of 150,000 units per year – the second generation of the Model 3 production process.”
- Tesla Q2’19 Update Letter
(Image below.)
« Last Edit: July 25, 2019, 02:40:02 PM by Sigmetnow »
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GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2992 on: July 25, 2019, 04:38:54 PM »
Master Plan Infinity:

Claim to be saving the world. Get famous. Get a cult. Take out loans. Pay self.
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GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2993 on: July 25, 2019, 04:43:24 PM »
GSY,

Per Neven, this thread is specifically for Tesla articles and links.

Where are yours?

https://twitter.com/followtheh/status/1154381381792870401
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SteveMDFP

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2994 on: July 25, 2019, 06:52:15 PM »

...
BTW the "linkomania" is like an addiction or a dogma. It won't do any good.

If Einstein and other great minds were living today, they would be bashed and asked for links.
 ...

Possibly true, but irrelevant.  This is Neven's forum, and per his repeated instructions, this thread is to concentrate on presenting articles and links, pro and con, about Tesla success/failure.  Arguments and discussions go elsewhere.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2995 on: July 25, 2019, 07:12:04 PM »

...
BTW the "linkomania" is like an addiction or a dogma. It won't do any good.

If Einstein and other great minds were living today, they would be bashed and asked for links.
 ...

Possibly true, but irrelevant.  This is Neven's forum, and per his repeated instructions, this thread is to concentrate on presenting articles and links, pro and con, about Tesla success/failure.  Arguments and discussions go elsewhere.

+1

——
Quote
ValueAnalyst (@ValueAnalyst1) 7/24/19, 2:10 PM
On $TSLA earnings days, you can say anything and it gets liked and retweeted.

Watch...

Street cats.
https://twitter.com/valueanalyst1/status/1154091440483577858
Image below.  ;D

————
TSLA bull calls out ‘completely wrong’ ideas on Tesla’s alleged inability to make money
Adjusted for one-time items, Tesla lost $1.12 a share on sales of $6.3 billion, which is an improvement over last year’s $3.06 loss.
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-tsla-bull-calls-out-market-overreaction-profitability/

—-
Tesla CTO JB Straubel transitions to Senior Advisor role, names VP of Tech as successor
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-cto-jb-straubel-becomes-senior-advisor/

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philopek

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2996 on: July 25, 2019, 07:16:57 PM »

...
BTW the "linkomania" is like an addiction or a dogma. It won't do any good.

If Einstein and other great minds were living today, they would be bashed and asked for links.
 ...

Possibly true, but irrelevant.  This is Neven's forum, and per his repeated instructions, this thread is to concentrate on presenting articles and links, pro and con, about Tesla success/failure.  Arguments and discussions go elsewhere.

ok, a valid point if the ownership prevails the task/goal to change things for a more sustainable world. Nevertheless i deleted the post, don't wanna offend royalty ;)

crandles

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2997 on: July 25, 2019, 07:39:54 PM »
Selected highlights:

Trying to make sense of some of these numbers:

Quote
consistent with our previous guidance of 360,000 to 400,000 vehicle deliveries this year.
Gigafactory Shanghai capacity of 150,000 units per year
Depending on the timing of the Gigafactory Shanghai ramp, we continue to target production of over
500,000 vehicles globally in the 12-month period ending June 30, 2020
starting production in China by the end of this year.


Capacity 3000 a week but won't be doing that this year if only starting by end of year.

This year so far 63k+95.3k=158.3k so need to do about 7.8k per week for rest of year to reach 360k. Q2 did 7.3k per week so 7.8k per week looks reachable. 9.3k per week to get to 400k sounds rather ambitious.

I suspect nearer low end of 360k-400k. So they can do 200k (perhaps + a bit) in last 6 months of this year, then in 12-months to 30 June 20 then 200k this year plus 10% more capacity increase 220k plus Shanghai which won't reach capacity and even 2.5k for 26 weeks is probably ambitious. That gets to 485k in that 12 months so that is practically at the 500k.

That seems to hang together reasonably.

So 7.8k per week for rest of 2019, maybe a little less than that in q3 but taking that figure, it is a 6.4% increase. 6.4% of the automotive sales gross profit of $915m is an increase of $58m

$408m loss improved by $58m or even quite a lot more than that, doesn't get us to a position where they can reasonably state they "aim for positive GAAP net income in Q3".

So perhaps they are expecting some big improvements or perhaps one off item(s) like a big regulatory credits jump. Wonder when does that Fiat deal start to generate income for them? 



oren

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2998 on: July 25, 2019, 08:14:26 PM »
I think they'll be lucky to hit 360k. And aiming for Q3 profit is not the same as guiding for Q3 profit. I expect Q3 to show a (hopefully small) loss.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2999 on: July 25, 2019, 09:46:20 PM »
“Our 2019 capex is expected to be about $1.5 to $2.0 billion, a reduction from prior guidance. We continue to find opportunities to improve capital efficiency and shift cash outflows to future periods.“
- Q2’19 update letter

Keep driving colsts down.  Labor costs decreased 50% in the last year; the huge new molding machine will replace many pieces and assembly steps with just a few; battery costs keep decreasing (Maxwell tech installed soon?), better margins with streamlined, higher-spec Model 3.

Giga3 production “will be a simplified, more cost-effective version of our Model 3 line.”
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