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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3000 on: July 25, 2019, 09:46:20 PM »
“Our 2019 capex is expected to be about $1.5 to $2.0 billion, a reduction from prior guidance. We continue to find opportunities to improve capital efficiency and shift cash outflows to future periods.“
- Q2’19 update letter

Keep driving colsts down.  Labor costs decreased 50% in the last year; the huge new molding machine will replace many pieces and assembly steps with just a few; battery costs keep decreasing (Maxwell tech installed soon?), better margins with streamlined, higher-spec Model 3.

Giga3 production “will be a simplified, more cost-effective version of our Model 3 line.”
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TerryM

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3001 on: July 26, 2019, 12:53:24 AM »
Elon Musk, Jan. 30, 2019 "I am optimistic about being profitable in Q1 and all quarters going forward."
$TSLA then lost $702 million in the first quarter and $408 million in the second quarter of 2019. That's $1.11 billion in H1 2019.

https://twitter.com/search?f=tweets&vertical=news&q=%24TSLAQ&src=tyah


I'm awaiting the 10-Q reveal, as well as the July production & delivery numbers.

Musk's optimistic predictions seem more than a little pollyannaish. That someone with his intimate understanding of Tesla's future could miss by >$1B could indicate a complete lack understanding - or an attempt to deceive.

Terry

philopek

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3002 on: July 26, 2019, 01:16:32 AM »
Elon Musk, Jan. 30, 2019 "I am optimistic about being profitable in Q1 and all quarters going forward."
$TSLA then lost $702 million in the first quarter and $408 million in the second quarter of 2019. That's $1.11 billion in H1 2019.

https://twitter.com/search?f=tweets&vertical=news&q=%24TSLAQ&src=tyah


I'm awaiting the 10-Q reveal, as well as the July production & delivery numbers.

Musk's optimistic predictions seem more than a little pollyannaish. That someone with his intimate understanding of Tesla's future could miss by >$1B could indicate a complete lack understanding - or an attempt to deceive.

Terry

Both, he lacks understanding how a business of that scale has to be run and he is deceiving from the fact that he does not understand that and from the resulting most probable loss of his investor's money.

This translates into what has been said here many times.

I'm just waiting whether he is going to pull a cryptomoney scam.
« Last Edit: July 26, 2019, 02:56:49 PM by philopek »

GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3003 on: July 26, 2019, 01:57:13 AM »
Musk's optimistic predictions seem more than a little pollyannaish. That someone with his intimate understanding of Tesla's future could miss by >$1B could indicate a complete lack understanding - or an attempt to deceive.

It is not really possible that the person who has the best access to Tesla related information could just not understand what is going on. He clearly is trying to deceive people. The strange thing is that it works over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over again. And the fanbois think it is great. Cult behavior.
big time oops

philopek

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3004 on: July 26, 2019, 02:59:42 PM »
Musk's optimistic predictions seem more than a little pollyannaish. That someone with his intimate understanding of Tesla's future could miss by >$1B could indicate a complete lack understanding - or an attempt to deceive.

It is not really possible that the person who has the best access to Tesla related information could just not understand what is going on. He clearly is trying to deceive people. The strange thing is that it works over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over again. And the fanbois think it is great. Cult behavior.

We could start a thread / poll as to what will happen once it won't work anymore, because as we know, the day will always come.

If it will happen related to higher forces like crash or widely spread economic / financial crisis, he could be lucky and get away with minor scars. If it will happen in normal times without external trigger to blame, he will be either lynched or will face prison time or both.

GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3005 on: July 26, 2019, 03:07:41 PM »
I'm just waiting whether he is going to pull a cryptomoney scam.

Musk's twitter feed is full of ppl thanking him for the bitcoin he gave them. So in some ways, the crypto nonsense is already here. But yes, the TeslaCoin will be the jump the shark moment. Don't be surprised if the fanbois are happy to shark jump.

https://medium.com/@gurancapel82/elon-musk-official-btc-giveaway-2b9c79bb4b6f
big time oops

Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3006 on: July 26, 2019, 09:05:28 PM »
I'm just waiting whether he is going to pull a cryptomoney scam.

Musk's twitter feed is full of ppl thanking him for the bitcoin he gave them. So in some ways, the crypto nonsense is already here. But yes, the TeslaCoin will be the jump the shark moment. Don't be surprised if the fanbois are happy to shark jump.

https://medium.com/@gurancapel82/elon-musk-official-btc-giveaway-2b9c79bb4b6f

The bitcoin offers are from twitter bots (often pretending to be Musk, using a similar twitter name.  Look closely).
The “thanks” come from other bots.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3007 on: July 26, 2019, 10:00:56 PM »
Knowledgeable discussion of Tesla Q2 Letter, page 6: Condensed Consolidated Statements of Operations

Why Wasn't Tesla Profitable? (07.25.19) - TechCast Daily
http://techcastdaily.com/2019/07/25/why-wasnt-tesla-profitable-07-25-19/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3008 on: July 27, 2019, 05:23:37 PM »
Tesla virtual power plant in Australia reduces electricity rate by ‘more than 20%’, moving to phase 3
Quote
Tesla is working on a giant virtual power plant made of 50,000 Powerwalls and solar systems in Australia and the local government says that the first phases have shown a reduction in electricity rates by “more than 20%.”

Now they are moving to the third phase of the virtual power plant.

Tesla Virtual Power Plant
The project is the biggest of its kind and it would dwarf any other stationary energy storage deployment if it is ever completed.

It came around after Elon Musk visited South Australia following the launch of its giant battery system in the state.  Musk gave an interview during which he was informed of the significant hardship that Australia’s high electricity prices are putting on families.  Visibly affected by the issue, Musk vowed that Tesla would “work harder” to help solve the problem.

A few months later, Tesla announced that it reached a deal with the South Australian government to install solar arrays and Powerwalls on up to 50,000 homes. ...
https://electrek.co/2019/07/26/tesla-virtual-power-plant-australia-savinigs-phase-3/
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TerryM

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3009 on: July 27, 2019, 08:41:19 PM »
Why would multimillionaires living in apartheid SA name their first born "Elon"?
Terry

philopek

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3010 on: July 27, 2019, 10:00:14 PM »
Why would multimillionaires living in apartheid SA name their first born "Elon"?
Terry

Because I think many parents wish for their male offspring what is meant/associated with the name Elon, like i.e.:

Elon (אֵילוֹן in Hebrew), is a masculine first name, or Jewish surname, which means "tree" or "oak tree"

or

Boy's name meaning, origin, and popularity

or

According to the Old Testament this was the name of one of the ruling judges of the Israelites.

etc.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3011 on: July 27, 2019, 10:08:42 PM »
Loup Ventures:  We finished our updated Model 3 cost of ownership study and found that, over a 5-year period, the Model 3 is slightly cheaper to own than a Toyota Camry.

Tesla Model 3 Cost of Ownership Slightly Cheaper Than a Camry
Quote
The bottom line: Model 3 is a superior car (electric, safer, Autopilot) compared to a Camry, and is slightly cheaper to own and operate over 5 years.
   •   Average all-in cost per mile for a Model 3 is $0.46, compared to the Camry LE at $0.49, and Audi A5 at $0.80.
https://loupventures.com/tesla-model-3-cost-of-ownership-slightly-cheaper-than-a-camry/

Note they used $38,900 as the TM3 starting price, and not the off-menu, even-cheaper version. Also,  no incentives were included.
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TerryM

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3012 on: July 27, 2019, 11:37:04 PM »
Why would multimillionaires living in apartheid SA name their first born "Elon"?
Terry

Because I think many parents wish for their male offspring what is meant/associated with the name Elon, like i.e.:

Elon (אֵילוֹן in Hebrew), is a masculine first name, or Jewish surname, which means "tree" or "oak tree"

or

Boy's name meaning, origin, and popularity

or

According to the Old Testament this was the name of one of the ruling judges of the Israelites.

etc.


Actually his parents are not Jewish - and there was an Elon that ruled Mars!


This Elon ruled from an underground pressurized palace that was:
Accessed by electric robotic pods, or driverless cabs summoned by tapping letters into your phone. They then entered elevators and were whisked along in evacuated tunnels at supersonic speeds - and they did this using Maglev!


Those that visited from Earth utilized rockets with reusable first and second stages with a plethora of small(er) engines, and the children on Mars had knowledge electronically beamed into their heads as they slept.


Foods weren't prepared at home, rather a series of short ads flashed by on TV and you selected your favorite that was piped to your apartment through pneumatic tubes as soon as you keyed it in with your phone. (Perhaps this was seen as Kimbal's function) ::)


I think it's reasonable to assume that Errol & Maye may have seen their child as the embodiment of the Elon featured in a sci-fi novel written by Wherner von Braun that was published in Canada in the early 50's.


Do people actually name their children after fictional characters - I think so, and I think they might also implant these dreams of grandeur into their little darlings heads.


Are Elon's dreams of founding a Martian colony his own, or is he simply acting out the role that his parents implanted in his very young and impressionable mind?


Elon - the ruler of Mars
Self driving electrical cars
Hyperloop
Neuralink
Reusable Rockets


What an amazing coincidence!
http://www.wlym.com/archive/oakland/docs/MarsProject.pdf


Terry

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3013 on: July 28, 2019, 12:16:41 AM »
Before clicking on that pdf, what is the name of the book?
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

TerryM

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3014 on: July 28, 2019, 12:20:39 AM »
Before clicking on that pdf, what is the name of the book?
"Mars Project"
It's a safe site.
Sorry but I'm going to be off line for some hours.
Have Funn!
Terry

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3015 on: July 28, 2019, 12:34:39 AM »
Not really a hyperloop, not a neuralink, and Elon is a title, not a name. But still an amazing coincidence, though OT of course.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3016 on: July 28, 2019, 06:52:17 PM »
Tesla Q2 safety numbers are out.  Yes, the Autopilot (AP) miles are still not directly comparable to NHTSA data, due to Tesla AP having fewer city and secondary road miles.  But recent AP updates for non-highway use are impressive, and such use is increasing — see the Tesla owner Twitter videos below.  Progress is being made.
NoA = Navigate on Autopilot

Quote
Khalil Amar (@khalilamar) 7/15/19, 2:24 PM
#Tesla Autopilot in Morocco in urban area like #Casablanca
IMO she's good! she can drive within the hectic traffic jams and traffic rules of Casablanca. Adage: If you can drive in Casablanca, you may drive easily in Asia or anywhere else.

Kudos Tesla AP Team!
https://twitter.com/khalilamar/status/1150833650533093376
Vid:  AP in hectic city traffic
—-
Germany:
Quote
Alex (@alex_avoigt) 7/27/19, 5:19 PM
Not long ago NoAP would [have] been nervous making slight right & left moves or even forced me to take over but now look how confident HAL is driving through all challenges in that construction zone despite any car ahead to follow... clearly improvement.
https://twitter.com/alex_avoigt/status/1155226341232513024
38-sec vid, highway construction zone with confusing lane lines and turn lanes to ignore; shadows and overhead signs.

Tesla's new safety report paints Autopilot in a good light, but it's not that simple
https://mashable.com/article/tesla-safety-report-autopilot/

Edit:  Of course, it’s not only AP making a difference.  Safety features like automatic emergency braking, crash avoidance and lane-keeping assistance are standard on every Tesla, but optional or not available on many other cars on the road.
« Last Edit: July 28, 2019, 07:05:00 PM by Sigmetnow »
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kassy

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3017 on: July 28, 2019, 06:54:22 PM »
Nice stuff TerryM.

People do name their kids after characters. Khaleeshi is a recent example (and also a title). Very popular name from Game of Thrones but then she torched a town and its civilians  in a rather unpopular episode.

A buddy of mine named his cat Khaleeshi never met a kid with that name but it does not work that well with dutch.

If his parents named him after the character they could have steered him a great deal more. An interesting nature/nurture experiment but i guess we will never get the data.
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

TerryM

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3018 on: July 28, 2019, 06:59:49 PM »
Nice stuff TerryM.

People do name their kids after characters. Khaleeshi is a recent example (and also a title). Very popular name from Game of Thrones but then she torched a town and its civilians  in a rather unpopular episode.

A buddy of mine named his cat Khaleeshi never met a kid with that name but it does not work that well with dutch.

If his parents named him after the character they could have steered him a great deal more. An interesting nature/nurture experiment but i guess we will never get the data.


Thanks!
I've more  that follows ;)
Terry

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3019 on: July 28, 2019, 07:00:33 PM »
Not really a hyperloop, not a neuralink, and Elon is a title, not a name. But still an amazing coincidence, though OT of course.
What was described was a subsurface 12' evacuated tunnel
Containing a number of ~6 man wheel-less "pods"
Elevated and propelled electromagnetically
Capable of supersonic speeds


To describe such a system today we'd refer to it as a Hyperloop, A Hyperloop derived System or perhaps a competitor to Hyperloop.


What an amazing coincidence!
Terry


Looking through one of them, Holt saw a wide tube of some 12 feet in diameter gleaming brightly, as did all other rooms or corridors, by reason of the luminous paint. "That looks rather like a subway tunnel," he remarked to Billingsley, "except for there being no rails."
-----
It almost frightened him to realize that already they must have reached supersonic speed, for their vehicle was in no way streamlined, having blunt, hemispherical ends and fitting the inner diameter of the tunnel so tightly that there was but an inch or so of clearance! There could be but one explanation for the terrific speed with which they shot down the tunnel - there must be a vacuum within it!
-----
 Martian railways knew no wheels! At the front and rear of the roof of their car were two horseshoe shaped permanent magnets which were poised around a bearing rail at the top of the tunnel and within the slot running along its center. The magnetic flux which passed through the bearing rail from one pole of the magnets to the other suspended their light vehicle without metal-to-metal contact!
-----
 Above the suspension rail was a chain of electrical windings, interrupted at regular intervals. These coils were energized consecutively from an exterior source of current so that a cylindrical permanent magnet located centrally in the car roof was attracted from one coil to the next, rushing the car with it. This permanent magnet represented in some sense the armature of an electric motor which, instead of rotating, dashed along the extended sequence of the coils.


TerryM

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3020 on: July 28, 2019, 07:00:51 PM »
Not really a hyperloop, not a neuralink, and Elon is a title, not a name. But still an amazing coincidence, though OT of course.
Mr. Musk's Neuralink uses bundled wiring each wire inserted through a trepannated skull. When activated pre-recorded data is delivered to the brain.
With Dr. von Braun's device each wire terminated at a disk temporarily glued to the skull. When activated a pre-recorded lesson was orally and electronically delivered to the sleeping brain.


Not a "Neuralink", but certainly the logical outgrowth of Musk's more simplified designs.


What an amazing coincidence!
Terry


Dipping an absorbent pad into a liquid which smelled like acetone, she wiped several spots on Hubbard's scalp and then placed a number of shining metal disks on the spots, retaining them with an adhesive. Each disc was connected to the apparatus by a thin wire.
-----
"These disks are sensitive to the waves of your brain and conduct them to the amplifier."

TerryM

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3021 on: July 28, 2019, 07:01:05 PM »
Not really a hyperloop, not a neuralink, and Elon is a title, not a name. But still an amazing coincidence, though OT of course.
I had a friend whose name was "Major" - military family of course.
We've a number of members here whose given names derive from the title "Christ".


My favorite for this example might be Reeve, both Elon's middle name, and the title for a local bureaucrat.


What an amazing coincidence!
Terry


Game of Thrones fans have named their children "Oberyn, Rhaegar, Margaery, and Bran", so positing
that Maye & Errol named their little bundle of joy after the fictional Elron isn't much of a stretch.

Damn good thing they didn't name him Boldemort Musk, Moriarty Musk or Morbius Musk! Imagine what the youngest of the Musk Clan might grown into had these tales been cooed to him in his crib.

philopek

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3022 on: July 28, 2019, 08:15:16 PM »
......... and Elon is a title, not a name. ..........

Many titles are used as names,

i.e. "Luther-KING" to name just one.
or  "Fürst" a frequent German name to name another
or  After the abolition of nobility in Germany, the noble families changed there title
into a part of their surnames, here to probably stay for a long time to come

City names are used as names, i.e. "SAN DIEGO POOTH" "PARIS HILTON"

and so on

In short, names can be/contain titles and do so since long and to a name being a title does not contradict it being a name at the same time.

His name is ELON Musk hence ELON is clearly a name which is why i don't fully understan
that remark of yours. Sounds like a "No But" while i use every opportunity to suggest
people to prefer "Yes But" over "No But" if possible or applicable.

I know not everyone will understand my point here, it's about our general approach to what others have to say, first deny and then generously or guiltily somehow agree, or first agree and then think in relative terms.

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3023 on: July 28, 2019, 09:06:31 PM »
Philopek, I only meant that in the story, it's the title of the ruler, not his name. Just a tiny detail. I like details.
Terry, I didn't notice the vacuum tibe descrption. 10 minutes skim-reading a book can only get you so far.
I must say the writer was quite the visionary btw.

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3024 on: July 28, 2019, 11:19:53 PM »
Philopek, I only meant that in the story, it's the title of the ruler, not his name. Just a tiny detail. I like details.
Terry, I didn't notice the vacuum tibe descrption. 10 minutes skim-reading a book can only get you so far.
I must say the writer was quite the visionary btw.


Reply #3007
Last phrase of 3d from last paragraph.


Through the book when one of the more scientifically literate characters makes an observation it's either immediately corrected by another character, or shown to be factual. In this instance they'd just experienced 20 seconds of 3g acceleration in an unstreamlined, blunt "pod" when Holt notes that they "must be in a vacuum". A few paragraphs later, after inquiring about the propulsion mechanism he ruminates about drag.


 Air drag? There was a vacuum in the tunnel... So there was only hysteresis created in those sections of the suspension rail gripped by the vehicle's magnets.

Some of the good doctors visions were not as spot on, nor as benign. He has the West winning a 1970's WWIII by means of repeatedly dropping massive atomic bombs from their impregnable satellite onto defenseless Asian cities. :-\


It's an interesting novel, with just a trace of racial superiority, (not a hint of darker skinned or Oriental scientists, sexism (all of the crew are males) and world conquest through the ruthless application of superior military technology. - He was after all an SS officer.
Terry

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3025 on: July 28, 2019, 11:45:55 PM »
Loup Ventures:  We finished our updated Model 3 cost of ownership study and found that, over a 5-year period, the Model 3 is slightly cheaper to own than a Toyota Camry.

Tesla Model 3 Cost of Ownership Slightly Cheaper Than a Camry
Quote
The bottom line: Model 3 is a superior car (electric, safer, Autopilot) compared to a Camry, and is slightly cheaper to own and operate over 5 years.
   •   Average all-in cost per mile for a Model 3 is $0.46, compared to the Camry LE at $0.49, and Audi A5 at $0.80.
https://loupventures.com/tesla-model-3-cost-of-ownership-slightly-cheaper-than-a-camry/

Note they used $38,900 as the TM3 starting price, and not the off-menu, even-cheaper version. Also,  no incentives were included.

There is no history to judge the cost of maintenance and repairs over the 5 year period for the Model 3, therefore this number is meaningless. The same with the resale value.

TerryM

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3026 on: July 29, 2019, 12:06:26 AM »

There is no history to judge the cost of maintenance and repairs over the 5 year period for the Model 3, therefore this number is meaningless. The same with the resale value.


I believe there have been used car pricings indicating that Tesla's don't hold their value well when compared to other similarly priced brands. Elon at one time was promising to look into the problem of minor fender benders that cost much more than other autos.


My last two vehicles have each cost <$300/yr in maintenance/repair and prior to that I always did all of the repairs myself. If I ever purchased a new vehicle that cost me $4,000 for maintenance during the first 5 years I'd be screaming like a banshee!


Terry

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3027 on: July 29, 2019, 03:34:28 AM »

There is no history to judge the cost of maintenance and repairs over the 5 year period for the Model 3, therefore this number is meaningless. The same with the resale value.


I believe there have been used car pricings indicating that Tesla's don't hold their value well when compared to other similarly priced brands. Elon at one time was promising to look into the problem of minor fender benders that cost much more than other autos.

I had a look on the UK autotrader at 2015 cars with 70,000 to 80,000 miles on them.  Competing cars for price with the Tesla were high range Range Rovers and Merc S class AMG.

It didn't seem so bad.  Tesla's tend to have higher mileage and still keep their value.

As for Maintenance costs?  My wife used to do 40,000 miles per year.  She was £1,000 every 2.5 years to get her timing belt and water pump changed.  Over and above that were the 20,000 normal services at no less than £100.

I guess time will tell.  Prices are high because they are rare right now. What will happen when they are mainstream volume is not obvious.
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3028 on: July 29, 2019, 03:43:23 AM »
Some interesting statements on cashflow for the Q2 results.

I noticed that there was $117 million in restructuring and one off charges on the loss.  Bringing the gross loss down to under $300 million, which, if I understand Crandles correctly, falls within the capex/R&D cost margin.

There is little point in speculating about how it is going to go right now, but the reality is that Tesla has a war chest of $5bn to use to expand production and keep going.

Reality says that with massively increased production losses are significantly lower year on year.  This will, of course, change in Q3/Q4 as Tesla actually made a profit last year.  I see no reason for Tesla not to break even in Q3 and if the Chinese governor is to be believed, a few vehicles may roll out in China before the end of September.  Leaving it open for a few thousand vehicles to come of Gigafactory 3 in ?Q?4.

I'm not sure about the whole detail of capital assets and how they affect the balance sheet, but I assume that once Gigafacgtory 3 is complete it will become a large financial asset on the ledger???  Not sure exactly how that works in P&L though.
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crandles

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3029 on: July 29, 2019, 01:47:49 PM »

I'm not sure about the whole detail of capital assets and how they affect the balance sheet, but I assume that once Gigafacgtory 3 is complete it will become a large financial asset on the ledger???  Not sure exactly how that works in P&L though.

Yes restructuring cost plus R&D are more than the losses. Restructuring charge was higher than normal but there always seems to be some restructuring, so some level of this may continue in future.

The only way capital costs like buildings hit the P&L is as depreciation and that won't start til building is brought into use.

I would expect stage payments on a construction project and I am not sure whether these go into
Property, plant and equipment on the Balance sheet, or elsewhere on balance sheet. There is a new line on the balance sheet:
Quote
Operating lease right-of-use assets 1,248,277 —

My first thought was this related to car leasing, but that doesn't really fit with the title and there is a separate line for operating lease vehicles.

Looking more closely at the assets:
Quote
Property, plant and equipment, net 10,082,458 11,330,077
is lower at 30 June than at 31 Dec by $1.25bn.
The depreciation amortisation and impairment for that 6 months is $1.045bn.
The 'Capital Expenditures' add up to $530m.

Not really getting this to add up, but it makes more sense if 'Operating lease right-of-use assets' is regarding the Shanghai buildings. From this, it sounds like they will be just renting the land but paying for the construction of the buildings.

Looks like it had been included in Property, plant and equipment line but from March 2019 was separated out. Perhaps there was a change of plan to this operating lease arrangement.

Not sure if this is common in China. I have concerns about this: If the land owner is the Chinese Govt, then they are all encouraging to Tesla to start. Once the building is built, are they then keen to see Tesla fail so they get the building for free? The building might be pretty unimportant compared to having Tesla around so perhaps it is OK.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3030 on: July 29, 2019, 01:59:19 PM »
Tesla cyberpunk Pickup unveiling nears as final truck details take shape
• Most talked about pickup truck on Twitter
• Performance rivals base Porsche 911
• Starting price $49k “or less”
• Reveal this fall
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-truck-unveiling-2-3-months-elon-musk/

====
“If Tesla succeeds but the climate is destroyed, that doesn’t help Tesla”
Old video clip: Musk explains to Chris Hayes why Tesla opened its patents
https://twitter.com/el_dimitrieva/status/1155159130761547776
< Yes! It also explains perfectly why Tesla is prioritizing lowering vehicle costs and increasing production over immediate profits.

—-
(This Gigawatt you speak of — mention it not.  Tesla now speaks of Terawatt. :) )

Disruption Research (@DisruptResearch) 7/25/19, 2:17 PM
Key takeaways from $TSLA 2019Q2 earnings (thread):
[Images below]
1. Remarkable financial discipline.
@Tesla's opex declined 7% vs Q2 despite deliveries growing 51%. Cost base is at critical mass. This bodes well for earnings in 2020 when China & Model Y production begins at higher margin.
https://twitter.com/disruptresearch/status/1154455725244059650

2. Model 3 now sustainably profitable
A key question was whether Model 3 gross margin will deteriorate once SR+ is available globally. Normalized auto gross margin actually improved sequentially, and Model 3 ASP is now stable. This is meaningful for $TSLA.

3. Planning for continued exponential growth.
Some wonder whether growth will stall from here. @elonmusk answered that yesterday. There is a mind-numbing amount of gas cars (1.5B+) to be replaced, and @Tesla has a terawatt-hr scale plan to match it.
Terawatt-hr + Autonomy = !?
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3031 on: July 29, 2019, 02:19:00 PM »
Loup Ventures:  We finished our updated Model 3 cost of ownership study and found that, over a 5-year period, the Model 3 is slightly cheaper to own than a Toyota Camry.
...

There is no history to judge the cost of maintenance and repairs over the 5 year period for the Model 3, therefore this number is meaningless. The same with the resale value.

Tesla Model 3 Cheaper Than Honda Accord — 15 Cost Comparisons [Updated] | CleanTechnica
https://cleantechnica.com/2019/05/04/tesla-model-3-cheaper-than-honda-accord-15-cost-comparisons-updated/

Quote
Perhaps most telling, on straight financial cost of ownership,the 3 most basic versions of Model 3, based on cost of ownership alone, have a more compelling financial value proposition than the car that tops the US car sales list -the Toyota Camry.
https://roseleo.wordpress.com/2019/06/05/teslas-model-3-was-not-the-top-selling-ev-in-europe-by-a-slim-margin-it-sold-about-90-more-than-its-nearest-competitor/

Tesla holds its value 2 times better than average gasoline car, study says
https://electrek.co/2019/06/17/tesla-holds-value-better-than-average-car-study/

Choosing A Car That’s Not Electric And Autonomous Is Insane, Says Elon Musk
This seamless integration of software and hardware in Tesla cars makes them less susceptible to depreciation. The longer a person owns a Tesla, the more features they will receive.
https://fossbytes.com/tesla-cars-financially-better-traditional-cars-elon-musk/
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blumenkraft

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3032 on: July 29, 2019, 04:23:44 PM »
There is no history to judge the cost of maintenance and repairs over the 5 year period for the Model 3, therefore this number is meaningless. The same with the resale value.

How is there no history?

The model S is around since 2012. EVs are around since 1832. There is data to extrapolate from.

This forum is all about interpreting data. It's done all the time. And as a fellow forum member, you do know that as a fact, right?

So, why can't it be done in this case?
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Archimid

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3033 on: July 30, 2019, 12:45:06 AM »
Introducing Megapack: Utility-Scale Energy Storage

https://www.tesla.com/blog/introducing-megapack-utility-scale-energy-storage

Quote
Megapack significantly reduces the complexity of large-scale battery storage and provides an easy installation and connection process. Each Megapack comes from the factory fully-assembled with up to 3 megawatt hours (MWhs) of storage and 1.5 MW of inverter capacity, building on Powerpack’s engineering with an AC interface and 60% increase in energy density to achieve significant cost and time savings compared to other battery systems and traditional fossil fuel power plants. Using Megapack, Tesla can deploy an emissions-free 250 MW, 1 GWh power plant in less than three months on a three-acre footprint – four times faster than a traditional fossil fuel power plant of that size. Megapack can also be DC-connected directly to solar, creating seamless renewable energy plants.

For utility-size installations like the upcoming Moss Landing project in California with PG&E, Megapack will act as a sustainable alternative to natural gas “peaker” power plants. Peaker power plants fire up whenever the local utility grid can’t provide enough power to meet peak demand. They cost millions of dollars per day to operate and are some of the least efficient and dirtiest plants on the grid. Instead, a Megapack installation can use stored excess solar or wind energy to support the grid’s peak loads.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3034 on: July 30, 2019, 01:52:13 PM »
More:
Tesla Megapack targets utilities with massive 3MWh plug ‘n play battery
Quote
Along with an AC interface, the Megapack also includes DC-connectivity for solar grids, essentially giving it plug ‘n play capability for any type of power grid interface. Tesla’s Megapack product page further describes its “All-in-One-System” design:
“Every Megapack arrives pre-assembled and pre-tested in one enclosure from our Gigafactory—including battery modules, bi-directional inverters, a thermal management system, an AC main breaker and controls. No assembly is required, all you need to do is connect Megapack’s AC output to your site wiring,” Tesla detailed.

Tesla’s latest product is also very competitive compared to other utility power storage options available on the market. Thanks to its high-density energy storage capacity and modularity, the Megapack needs 40% less space and 10x fewer parts than comparable systems, according to data published on Tesla’s product page. This will bode well for areas with space constraints or simply desiring a smaller footprint for energy storage.
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-megapack-targets-utilities-with-massive-3mwh-plug-n-play-battery/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3035 on: July 30, 2019, 03:15:10 PM »
Tesla Model 3 gets perfect 5-star rating from Australia’s ANCAP safety agency
Quote
…It should be noted that the Model 3’s 94% score for the ANCAP’s Safety Assist category is the highest Safety Assist score achieved by any vehicle against the ANCAP’s protocols, which are currently based on the European New Car Assessment Program (Euro NCAP). Quite interestingly, the Euro NCAP also gave the Model 3 a perfect 5-Star Safety Rating earlier this month, though the vehicle’s Child Occupant Protection score in the ANCAP is a hair higher at 87% compared to its European counterpart’s 86% rating.

Just like the Euro NCAP, the ANCAP took note of the Model 3’s range of standard driver assistance systems which protect the vehicle’s occupants on the road. Among these are an advanced lane support system capable of emergency lane-keeping, as well as features such as autonomous emergency braking systems. James Goodwin, ANCAP Chief Executive Officer, stated that the Model 3’s results ultimately bodes well for Tesla and the company’s overall commitment to safety.

The Model 3’s 5-Star ANCAP Safety Ratings apply to all Model 3 variants that will be sold in the Australian and New Zealand region. Quite interestingly, the safety agency mentioned in its recent press release that the electric sedan will be introduced to the Australian and New Zealand area starting this August 2019.
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-model-3-5-star-rating-ancap-australia-video/

—-
Edmunds says that a non-Performance Model 3 whoops a BMW 330i’s butt when it comes to driving pleasure.
Edmunds: Tesla Model 3 Is The “Ultimate Driving Machine”
Quote
I had to do a double take when seeing this tweet below. I thought perhaps it was actually from The Onion, not Edmunds.

In case you are not aware, Edmunds is no hippie-dippie cleantech site. In fact, it makes a shit ton of money funneling internet surfers to local auto dealers to buy gasmobiles. That’s sort of its thing. So, for Edmunds staff to bash a conventional auto company by saying that its popular tagline fits Tesla better is … well … sort of shocking. But that’s just what it did.

The ultimate driving machine? Not anymore. We put our 2-year-old Model 3 –– which isn’t even the most sportiest configuration –– up against the new BMW 3 Series and came away concluding the @Tesla is just more fun to drive.
— Edmunds (@edmunds) July 24, 2019
https://cleantechnica.com/2019/07/28/edmunds-tesla-model-3-is-the-ultimate-driving-machine/
In the video at the link, the Edmunds guy laughs and is almost as surprised as the article’s author.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3036 on: July 30, 2019, 03:41:22 PM »
6 Ways Tesla Ruins Everything For Incumbent Automakers
Quote
This article was inspired by a tweet by a popular YouTuber who commented that his driveway is going to look like a Tesla dealership. I replied that although I have only one Tesla now, everyone in my family wants a Tesla, even though none of them had any interest in the car during the 2 years I was talking about it but they hadn’t yet seen it. Once they got to spend some time in the car, they all came to love it. All like the instant power, some like the prestige, some like the low maintenance, and most appreciate the low running costs….

With the Model 3 motor expected to last a million miles and the batteries expected to last 300,000 to 500,000 miles before module replacement, the car is expected to last close to 5 times as long as conventional gas cars and maybe 3 or 4 times as long as diesel cars (which tend to last a little longer than gas cars). This means that when someone buys a Tesla, the other manufacturers may lose the sale of 5 cars they would normally build for a million miles.
https://cleantechnica.com/2019/07/27/6-ways-tesla-ruins-everything-for-incumbent-automakers/

Quote
A Tesla for the rest of us (@teslavus) 7/26/19, 10:56 AM
Omgosh omgosh were a 2-Tesla family!!!!!
https://twitter.com/teslavus/status/1154767475885531141

Quote
FredD (@FredD40959949) 7/23/19, 10:22 AM
Once you drive a Tesla then all the rest, BMW, Audi, Mercedes, they just all feel like driving farm equipment. Not that there’s anything wrong with that - we all need to eat.
https://twitter.com/fredd40959949/status/1153671855762333696

=======
Quote
Scott Wainner (@scottwww) 7/25/19, 4:35 PM
.@ARKInvest bought 14,088 shares of $TSLA today.
ARKW | 07/25/2019 | 11:30AM | TESLA INC | 14088
https://twitter.com/scottwww/status/1154490478819074048

Quote
Vincent (@vincent13031925) 7/29/19, 9:54 AM
A German Banking Giant Doubles Down on #Tesla Stock
Commerzbank, the big German lender, increased its bet on Elon Musk's electric-car company Tesla $TSLA last quarter.
https://twitter.com/vincent13031925/status/1155839041096445952
- Some big investors lately have put their money behind the likelihood of Tesla turning a corner. Germany's Commerzbank, Barron's noted Monday, boosted its stake by roughly 350,000 shares in the second quarter.
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GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3037 on: July 30, 2019, 05:11:22 PM »
There is no history to judge the cost of maintenance and repairs over the 5 year period for the Model 3, therefore this number is meaningless. The same with the resale value.

How is there no history?

The model S is around since 2012. EVs are around since 1832. There is data to extrapolate from.

This forum is all about interpreting data. It's done all the time. And as a fellow forum member, you do know that as a fact, right?

So, why can't it be done in this case?

Totally different cars. Model S was a top of the line luxury car, designed back when Tesla wasn't a Musk controlled Frankenstein of a company. The Model 3 was put into production while the cult leader was bailing out his other company and coming up with insane timelines. Model 3s ended up getting thrown together in a temp tent. The quality control issues are an industry outlier.
big time oops

GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3038 on: July 30, 2019, 05:12:51 PM »
What is more likely: Q3 profit or loss greater than $600M? Any sigs or archs or neils who wanna make me giggle and say a profit?!?  :P
big time oops

GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3039 on: July 30, 2019, 05:16:01 PM »
There is no history to judge the cost of maintenance and repairs over the 5 year period for the Model 3, therefore this number is meaningless. The same with the resale value.

In general, I agree, but about resale values on the model 3...Tesla has lowered the prices of the various variants by approx 20% over the last year. Not hard to figure out what happens to resale values.
big time oops

jai mitchell

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3040 on: July 30, 2019, 09:55:17 PM »
More:
Tesla Megapack targets utilities with massive 3MWh plug ‘n play battery
Quote
Along with an AC interface, the Megapack also includes DC-connectivity for solar grids, essentially giving it plug ‘n play capability for any type of power grid interface. Tesla’s Megapack product page further describes its “All-in-One-System” design:
“Every Megapack arrives pre-assembled and pre-tested in one enclosure from our Gigafactory—including battery modules, bi-directional inverters, a thermal management system, an AC main breaker and controls. No assembly is required, all you need to do is connect Megapack’s AC output to your site wiring,” Tesla detailed.

Tesla’s latest product is also very competitive compared to other utility power storage options available on the market. Thanks to its high-density energy storage capacity and modularity, the Megapack needs 40% less space and 10x fewer parts than comparable systems, according to data published on Tesla’s product page. This will bode well for areas with space constraints or simply desiring a smaller footprint for energy storage.
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-megapack-targets-utilities-with-massive-3mwh-plug-n-play-battery/

I WANT ONE!!!!
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oren

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3041 on: July 30, 2019, 10:22:28 PM »
I expect a small loss in Q3, but I think a profit is much more probable than a $600M loss.

oren

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3042 on: July 31, 2019, 08:48:25 AM »
Here's an breakdown of Tesla sales by market, from Sec filing, brought by Electrek. It is dependent on the US for roughly 50% of its revenue, with most of the Q over Q growth occurring there, meaning the dependence has increased. This means the recent reduction of the Federal tax credit from $3750 to $1875 could drag on Q3 sales, both because of the added cost to buyers, and also because of a Q2 pull effect.

https://electrek.co/2019/07/29/tesla-sales-grew-china/
« Last Edit: July 31, 2019, 09:01:11 AM by oren »

oren

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3043 on: July 31, 2019, 09:02:10 AM »
Another way of looking at the numbers (hoping I didn't fudge the numbers).

BeeKnees

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3044 on: July 31, 2019, 11:18:41 AM »
Here's an breakdown of Tesla sales by market, from Sec filing, brought by Electrek. It is dependent on the US for roughly 50% of its revenue, with most of the Q over Q growth occurring there, meaning the dependence has increased. This means the recent reduction of the Federal tax credit from $3750 to $1875 could drag on Q3 sales, both because of the added cost to buyers, and also because of a Q2 pull effect.

https://electrek.co/2019/07/29/tesla-sales-grew-china/

I maybe wrong on this but isnt these sales figures more a reflection of how many vehicles were delivered to the respective markets rather than sales ( people putting down a deposit as a commitment to buy ). 
If true then what we can't tell is whether the availability of more vehicles in any of those markets would've resulted in more sales or if all the available sales were satisfied.  Therefore we can't really say there is an increased dependence on US market that will drag on Q3 sales, it maybe that Q3 sees an increase of sales in other markets to compensate for the pull/price effect in the US.

crandles

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3045 on: July 31, 2019, 01:27:07 PM »

I maybe wrong on this but isnt these sales figures more a reflection of how many vehicles were delivered to the respective markets rather than sales ( people putting down a deposit as a commitment to buy ). 
If true then what we can't tell is whether the availability of more vehicles in any of those markets would've resulted in more sales or if all the available sales were satisfied.  Therefore we can't really say there is an increased dependence on US market that will drag on Q3 sales, it maybe that Q3 sees an increase of sales in other markets to compensate for the pull/price effect in the US.

Strange terminology used there.

I think sales are 'deliveries to customers'. While "people putting down a deposit as a commitment to buy" is an order.

With stock of vehicles so low (18 days) and talk of more orders at end of Q2 than at beginning, I think it is assured that with (some) more vehicles available they would be able to sell them. Tesla will only be delivering what they are sure can be quickly sold, otherwise keep them for a different country. Therefore, sales in other countries are likely limited by deliveries to the country rather than by demand.

I think I agree that increased dependence on US in Q2 does not necessarily mean there has to be increased dependence in Q3, there might simply be more deliveries to other countries.

So is increased dependence on US in Q2 a good sign or a bad sign? I am more inclined to think it is a good sign indicating there is lots of demand in US. If the demand wasn't there they would be shipping more to other countries.

oren

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3046 on: July 31, 2019, 01:38:28 PM »
I have a suspicion that the "more orders at end of Q2 than at beginning" includes the Model Y orders, which are refundable and expected to be delivered more than a year away. So this may not necessarily be indicative of actual sales in Q3.
BTW, I was positively surprised by the growth in the "Other" segment, as well as in the Netherlands, and by the rather small decline in Norway. Some folks were expecting a total crash in Norway in Q2, following the initial wave of 3-year backlog deliveries in Q1, turns out they were quite wrong.

crandles

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3047 on: July 31, 2019, 02:02:54 PM »
I have a suspicion that the "more orders at end of Q2 than at beginning" includes the Model Y orders, which are refundable and expected to be delivered more than a year away. So this may not necessarily be indicative of actual sales in Q3.

That sent me looking for the quote.

Quote
Customer deposits declined to $631 million in Q2. This includes an increase in our order backlog offset by a sequential reduction in customer pre-payments (i.e., customers paying more than the minimum deposit) as well as reservation cancellations as order generation has shifted nearly entirely to non-reservation holders.

$631 million is down from $793 million at Dec 31 2018.

Seems like reservations are not at all important to order generation and we should be careful distinguishing orders from reservations.

Are model Y orders possible yet?
 
Are the refundable model Y deposits just reservations? And does this mean they are not included in the 'order backlog'?

oren

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3048 on: July 31, 2019, 02:33:19 PM »
Here's some quote from Electrek
Quote
As we noted in our Model Y launch post, Tesla surprised many by already launching the Model Y online design studio and allowing buyers to place an order with a $2,500 deposit.

This is clearly a departure from Tesla’s previous reservation process during which the company has taken a $1,000 refundable deposit until the vehicle is closer to production. At that point, it converted reservations to orders and accepted the $2,500 deposit.

And from Tesla's Y order agreement
Quote
Pre-Order Process; Cancellation; Changes. After you submit your completed pre-order and the options you selected become available in production, which we expect to begin in the fourth quarter of 2020, we will begin the process of matching your pre-order to a vehicle and coordinating your Vehicle delivery. Your Pre-Order Payment covers the cost of these activities and other processing costs and is not a deposit for the Vehicle. Until your Vehicle is delivered to you, you may cancel your pre-order at any time, in which case you will receive a full refund of your Pre-Order Payment.

So the Model Y pre-orders, which began on March 15th, are counted as orders backlog, not as deposits. I just wonder how many there were, and what part was placed in Q1 rather than in Q2. But this certainly overstates the order backlog.
The change does make sense though - the reservations are not useful when deliveries are sorted by market (US first) and by configuration (high end first) . And pre-orders using the actual order engine (Design Studio) mean that Tesla gets a notion of what configurations people actually want.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3049 on: July 31, 2019, 02:50:53 PM »
...
Are model Y orders possible yet?
...

Yes.  I’ve ordered one.  :)
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