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NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3500 on: September 05, 2019, 06:36:10 PM »
Update.  Hard to get coherent stats.  AM online has

https://www.am-online.com/amp/news/market-insight/2019/09/05/uk-new-car-sales-dropped-in-august-as-diesel-orders-continued-decline

Has 92k cars.  But it has BEV at 3,147.  If that is correct, Tesla model 3 took 63% of the UK BEV sales. What they sold in S and X I can't find but it will just make that stat bigger.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3501 on: September 05, 2019, 11:22:59 PM »
Update.  Hard to get coherent stats.  AM online has

https://www.am-online.com/amp/news/market-insight/2019/09/05/uk-new-car-sales-dropped-in-august-as-diesel-orders-continued-decline

Has 92k cars.  But it has BEV at 3,147.  If that is correct, Tesla model 3 took 63% of the UK BEV sales. What they sold in S and X I can't find but it will just make that stat bigger.

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2019/sep/05/tesla-model-3-was-uk-third-best-selling-car-in-august
Quote
New owners registered 2,082 Tesla Model 3 cars in August, according to data published on Thursday by the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT). The figures meant Model 3 registrations overtook popular cars including the Ford Focus, the Vauxhall Corsa and the Mercedes-Benz A-Class in August. Only the Ford Fiesta and the Volkswagen Golf sold more during the month.

https://www.smmt.co.uk/vehicle-data/car-registrations/
society of motor manufacturers and traders (smmt)

Brand analysis is useless -Tesla is in "Other Imports"
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NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3502 on: September 06, 2019, 12:07:09 AM »
I was referring more to the fact that Google is showing 115k vehicles for August and the smmt set it showing 92k.  Yet the google stats did not break out by fuel type.

If the smmt set is correct, then Tesla sold 63% of the UK BEV sales in the UK. Which is remarkable given that this is the first month they have been available.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3503 on: September 06, 2019, 03:17:21 AM »
 ;D ;D ;D
(With apologies to those who understand German.)

Hitler Reacts to the Porsche Taycan
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3504 on: September 06, 2019, 05:58:00 AM »
Anyone think Musk will ever do a reveal again?

The Model Y reveal was super lame and half assed in comparison to the old reveals (most of which were fake). Seems like it would be hard for people to stomach more reveals with a lot of products having turned out to not be real pending. But I have to imagine that when Musk gets desperate, he will do some sorta insane reveal. Personally, my hope is for a hovercraft. Or maybe a sailboat with wind turbines.
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GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3505 on: September 06, 2019, 05:59:36 AM »
Does anyone have pictures of the tent where the Taycan is built?
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GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3506 on: September 06, 2019, 06:05:58 AM »
Any have any experience buying something and still not having it 1000+ days later? If so, what does that feel like? Does it feel similar to having something stolen, or is it more like having accidentally thrown away money?
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NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3507 on: September 06, 2019, 10:11:44 AM »
A reservation is not buying.  A fully refundable reservation is not buying and neither is a fully refundable deposit.

You don't make your case by statements like this.

As for the crack about a tent.  Models S and X were never made in a tent.  The Taycan is not competing with the Model3 as I have said several times.  Any more than Porsche competes with an Audi A6, which is the more likely competitor to the Model3.

Or perhaps the Alpha's might be a better fit.

Porsche is a wholly owned division of VAG, who are majority owned by the Porsche family.  Porsche, as a company, is 88 years old and has access to financial reserves Tesla does not.

The fact that the press are holding up a vehicle that only 1% of the population will ever afford (new), as a model 3 killer, just tells you the state of the competition Tesla faces from Europe.

Time to face facts.  Tesla started its EV journey with high value sports car class vehicles with technology superior to the rest of the market.  Since then new EU competitors have either been premium sports class or very weak offerings with limited range and compromise engineering designed to limit retooling at the factories.

Today we see Tesla continuing that trend.  People who might have been looking to spend 30,000 for their Ford or VW, Audi, Citroën, reaching the extra 10,000 - 20,000 for a Model3.

I have noticed significantly more Tesla's on the roads in the EU over the last two months, I'm sure I'll spot a Taycan some time next year.  I might even see an iPace or two over that time.
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TerryM

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3508 on: September 06, 2019, 11:50:17 AM »
Is the above because EVs produced by Musk will "Save the Planet", while all of the other EVs are inherently evil?
Terry

oren

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3509 on: September 06, 2019, 12:14:59 PM »
Fossil fuels are evil. Ergo, EVs are good. The higher the number the better. Tesla is good, Renault and some others too, or are beginning to. Porsche? Irrelevant due to the price point.

blumenkraft

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3510 on: September 06, 2019, 12:39:30 PM »
Terry, it's not about evil or good in this case. The main critique here is that that Porsche is so damn expensive while having worse EV specs than even a Model 3. It's a fair critique.
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TerryM

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3511 on: September 06, 2019, 12:45:57 PM »
Fossil fuels are evil. Ergo, EVs are good. The higher the number the better. Tesla is good, Renault and some others too, or are beginning to. Porsche? Irrelevant due to the price point.
Any idea what that price point is?
I've heard everything from $90k - to $159k.


Many - myself included have and will pay a premium for German or Japanese vehicles. I haven't been disappointed yet.
Terry

gerontocrat

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3512 on: September 06, 2019, 01:30:35 PM »
Does anyone have pictures of the tent where the Taycan is built?
No, but perhaps they should have got a tent from sprung.com.

I came across these things in Vanuatu in 1990. We didn't get one, but I was very impressed. But others could not make the leap from bricks & mortar to this new technology. So I am grateful for your post, even though it was really, really, dumb. Sprung.com are doing rather well. "The only building left standing in Buras, Louisiana after Hurricane Katrina in 2005"

https://www.wired.com/story/tesla-fremont-factory-model-3-production-tent-parking-lot-structure/
Quote
Nearly 1,000 feet long, 150 feet wide, and 53 feet tall, the tent covers 137,250 square feet. That’s enough to fit two and a half football fields, 122 Model 3 sedans, or, an assembly line. Maybe even two, says Abhay Vadhavkar, who spent the first few decades of his career in manufacturing at Ford and GM, and is now the director of manufacturing, engineering, and technology at the Center for Automotive Research. The tent sits on the northeastern bit of the Fremont property, by the paint shop. It has access to four bathrooms and about 30 fire extinguishers. It’s the third such structure Tesla ordered from San Francisco-based Sprung Structures, and its official name is Sprung 3.

Sprung.com
Quote
Unbeatable Tensile Structure Performance
All Sprung modular building structures are made from extremely high-quality materials and individually tested using strict performance measures. Our portable buildings have proven durability in some of the most extreme climates on earth, from the hottest desert to the windiest arctic tundra and coldest mountain highland.

Sprung permanent and temporary structures meet the strict Miami-Dade County Hurricane Compliance Code.
The only building left standing in Buras, Louisiana after Hurricane Katrina in 2005 was a Sprung tensile structure.
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KiwiGriff

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3513 on: September 06, 2019, 01:32:47 PM »
Insert deity of choice .
Go to Porsche and configure one
The base $150900us price widely quoted is not a thing.
You have to spend another $3.400.

Even a decent  150kw charging rate is an extra $460 the base spec only does 50 kw.
Tesla killer ROFL.
They will sell a few tens of thousands.
Mostly to Porsche  owners. 
Cannibalize their own market.

It is great to see more electric cars but this is not gonna be a mainstream model or even do as well as the S has to popularize electric transport.




NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3514 on: September 06, 2019, 03:07:00 PM »
This is the point for me. The i3 should have been better, the new electric Mini has a worse spec than the 10 year old design in EV creds at least, the infotainment and trim, I'm sure, is very good.  But it does not fill the credibility gap.

My slightly sarcastic comment, earlier, about Focus' and Astra's/ Corsa's was, in fact, where we need to be.  Mass market family cars at a mass market price point.

The Model 3 is a great step in this direction, but only a step. Taycans, iPaces, to fill that role? It is a bad joke.

Tesla Model 3, Nissan Leaf, Chevy Bolt, are all where we need to be.

But here is the point.  To March 2019, since 2010, Nissan had sold 400,000 leafs. By March 2020 the Tesla Model 3 will have beaten that even though the first production vehicle only rolled off the production line a little over 2 years ago.

For the Bolt it is much worse. Tesla sold more Model 3 in Q2 2019 than Bolt's had been sold in total Globally.

By the end of 2020, at this rate, Tesla will have sold more Model 3 than Nissan Leaf's and Chevy Bolt's and Volt's.

This is something we want and need.  If we are going to transition to EV, then we need millions per year sold.  Not hundreds of thousands per decade.

For that, alone, Tesla should get Kudos.

With this level of sales loss, the major manufacturers have to respond and ramp up urgently.  Because if they do not, then one or more of them are going to fail.

Take a step back, consider where Tesla was and where it is today.  By the time that we have gigafactory3 up to full speed Tesla will be producing the total global sales of their main FF  competitors EV models every 3Q.

Forget temporary manufacturing space, it was the right decision at the time. It is not how they got to where they are today, it is the fact that they are there and still a going concern.

We need Tesla to succeed in order to drag the rest along kicking and screaming.
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GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3515 on: September 06, 2019, 03:51:21 PM »
Fossil fuels are evil.

llol

Your entire life is dependent on them, so if you really believe what you say...you should fill your pockets with rocks and take a swim.
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GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3516 on: September 06, 2019, 03:55:03 PM »
By the time that we have gigafactory3 up to full speed Tesla will be producing the total global sales of their main FF  competitors EV models every 3Q.

Giga1 and Giga2 are mostly empty. But oh boy, wait til Giga3! Brilliant.
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GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3517 on: September 06, 2019, 03:58:24 PM »
A reservation is not buying.

And a pigeon is not a duck. Cool.

Tesla has been SELLING FSD for over 1000 days. Not a partial payment reservation. They sell shit that doesn't exist. Just accept it.
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blumenkraft

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3518 on: September 06, 2019, 04:02:05 PM »
Your entire life is dependent on them

Yes, and when people what to change that, explain the funny part to me, please?

Giga1 and Giga2 are mostly empty. But oh boy, wait til Giga3! Brilliant.

Where are all those registered cars built? In empty factories?

Your arguments are not worth calling them so. You are embarrassing yourself.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3519 on: September 06, 2019, 04:29:16 PM »
Does one encourage the plonker to continue to dig his hole deeper in the hope the sides collapse,
or does one just ignore this total and utter drivel?
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oren

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3520 on: September 06, 2019, 04:29:59 PM »
DNFTT is the best approach, when all hope for discussion is lost.

blumenkraft

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3521 on: September 06, 2019, 05:08:53 PM »
Mea culpa...  :-[
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GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3522 on: September 06, 2019, 05:16:08 PM »
Giga1 and Giga2 are mostly empty. But oh boy, wait til Giga3! Brilliant.

Where are all those registered cars built? In empty factories?


Wow. You are clueless. (A hallmark of Tesla bulls.)

The cars are built in neither Giga1 nor Giga2.

And yes, Giga1 and Giga2 are mostly empty. Giga1 space is about a third utilized and Giga2 is an even bigger joke with at most 20% utilized.
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GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3523 on: September 06, 2019, 05:18:06 PM »
Ya don't reply. Just cheerlead your fraudboy in a echo chamber devoid of any intellectual scrutiny.

#NukeMars
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GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3524 on: September 06, 2019, 05:45:59 PM »
On January 30, Musk said, "I am optimistic about being profitable in Q1 and all quarters going forward."

Q1 loss approx $700M
Q2 loss approx $400M

Musk has been claiming that Tesla will be profitable "from now on" for 8 years. 8 YEARS! And during that time Tesla has lost well over $5B.

AND YOU PPL CALL ANYONE WHO POINTS THIS OUT A TROLL. WTF IS WRONG WITH YALL!!!
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philopek

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3525 on: September 06, 2019, 05:56:50 PM »
AND YOU PPL CALL ANYONE WHO POINTS THIS OUT A TROLL. WTF IS WRONG WITH YALL!!!

Why are you asking?

You have given the answer dozens of times and you 100% nailed it ;)

I won't repeat, but that what's wrong are all the reasons why humankind put the planet into great distress, selective judgment (bias) from a  narrow (minded) or stupid viewing angle while the stupid are forgiven, the smart asses are much worse because they ARE responsible to a very high degree and if they are hypocrites who claim to act in the interest of others or something different that's when i get angry and I see it happen all over the place.

As i found out, any talk about the deepest root of all this are not appreciated at all and one get's either bashed, muted or ridiculed or all three.

The price will be high and we are approaching payment day.

The best equivalent to what's at play here is Phariseeism and looking back in time when the term was created and what happens today, those Pharisees are mostly responsible for almost every war or other major disruption and/or catastrophe that happened since then, often even directly rooted
at clergy circles or similar institutions.

In fact there is no hope because of this, only solution is near extinction with a high risk of total extinction without chance for a reboot.

Rob Dekker

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3526 on: September 07, 2019, 09:19:32 AM »

Porsche Taycan vs Tesla Model S - How Does It Stack Up?

This is our planet. This is our time.
Let's not waste either.

GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3527 on: September 07, 2019, 03:49:50 PM »
Upside down balance sheet? No worries, we will shrink our way out of the problem.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3528 on: September 07, 2019, 05:27:08 PM »
I won't repeat, but that what's wrong are all the reasons why humankind put the planet into great distress, selective judgment (bias) from a  narrow (minded) or stupid viewing angle while the stupid are forgiven, the smart asses are much worse because they ARE responsible to a very high degree and if they are hypocrites who claim to act in the interest of others or something different that's when i get angry and I see it happen all over the place.

As i found out, any talk about the deepest root of all this are not appreciated at all and one get's either bashed, muted or ridiculed or all three.

The price will be high and we are approaching payment day.

In fact there is no hope because of this, only solution is near extinction with a high risk of total extinction without chance for a reboot.
This thread is about whether Tesla as a major EV manufacturer is going to succeed or fail, end of.

Many agree with you about how the biosphere is being degraded and in parts already destroyed. You are quite right. Replacing ICE vehicles with EVs is but a small fraction of any solution to the disasters we are facing, if any solution exists.

But this is not the thread. There are many threads where you will find many people discussing the wider issues, e.g.s

Policy and solutions / Re: Extinction Rebellion
Consequences / Re: Past Extinction Events, as an Analog for Today
Consequences / Re: Near Term Human Extinction
Consequences / Re: When and how bad?
Consequences / Re: Population: Public Enemy No. 1
Consequences / Re: Prepping for Collapse

GSY hates TESLA and / or has made a big short bet. Don't know, don't care. But when posts are just a Munchean shriek** it is just a little light reading.
_____________________________________________________________

**The Scream is the popular name given to a composition created by Norwegian Expressionist artist Edvard Munch in 1893. The original German title given by Munch to his work was Der Schrei der Natur (The Scream of Nature), and the Norwegian title is Skrik (Shriek).
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3529 on: September 07, 2019, 09:33:03 PM »
Quote
Musk has been claiming that Tesla will be profitable "from now on" for 8 years.

Tesla critics have been insisting Tesla will be bankrupt “soon” for 15 years. ::)  Outrageous.
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NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3530 on: September 07, 2019, 11:38:17 PM »
Claiming that factories which will produce, this year, between 300,000 and 360,000 vehicles, to be empty, is just trolling.

There is no point in discussing that statement any further..
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wehappyfew

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3531 on: September 08, 2019, 02:05:56 AM »
Upside down balance sheet? No worries, we will shrink our way out of the problem.

The upper chart presented, purportedly showing 2018 and 2019 total deliveries, actually shows total US only deliveries, excluding non-US deliveries.

The attribution is sparse, but the title of the jpg is "auto shrink", implying that total auto deliveries are shrinking in 2019 compared to 2018.

In reality, non-US deliveries in 2018 were limited. Tesla concentrated deliveries to the US market to maximize the number of customers qualifying for the full US EV tax credit which halved after Dec 31, 2018.

Overseas and Canadian deliveries greatly increased in 2019, adding significantly to the total, so the chart is misleading, deceptive, and dishonestly labelled.

Worldwide total deliveries are undoubtedly available from numerous sources, but GSY chose to use this dishonest chart instead. I wonder why?




Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3532 on: September 08, 2019, 03:58:17 AM »
Sep. 3, 2019
In June 2019 Tesla was Responsible for 80% of All EV Battery Capacity Deployed in U.S.
More capacity was deployed in Tesla Model 3 than all other EV models combined

Quote
In June 2019, more battery capacity was deployed in newly-sold Tesla Model 3 battery electric vehicles (“BEVs”) in the U.S. than all other EV models combined, according to Adamas Intelligence’s latest ‘EV Battery Capacity Monthly’ report.

In total, Adamas data indicates that 2.2 GWh of battery capacity was deployed in the U.S. in newly-sold passenger EVs in June 2019, of which the Tesla Model 3, Tesla Model X and Tesla Model S were collectively responsible for 80%.

Rounding off the top-five, the Chevrolet Bolt was responsible for an additional 5% of all capacity deployed in the U.S. in June 2019 followed by the Audi e-Tron Quattro, which was responsible for 3%.

Stemming from Tesla’s dominance, its cell supplier, Panasonic, was responsible for 83% of all battery capacity deployed in the U.S. in June 2019, followed by LG Chem, AESC, Samsung SDI and GS Yuasa.
https://www.adamasintel.com/tesla-battery-capacity-us-june-2019/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3533 on: September 08, 2019, 04:11:09 AM »
Quote
Steve Jobs Ghost (@tesla_truth) 9/7/19, 12:20 PM
If you're going to doubt @elonmusk and @Tesla publicly just remember -- we will look back at your comments and laugh at you later.
The internet is forever  ;D
https://twitter.com/tesla_truth/status/1170371164897562626
Video clip at the link: 10 years ago, naysayers re Tesla, from ‘Revenge of the Electric Car’
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gerontocrat

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3534 on: September 08, 2019, 04:13:39 PM »
Upside down balance sheet? No worries, we will shrink our way out of the problem.

The upper chart presented, purportedly showing 2018 and 2019 total deliveries, actually shows total US only deliveries, excluding non-US deliveries.

The attribution is sparse, but the title of the jpg is "auto shrink", implying that total auto deliveries are shrinking in 2019 compared to 2018.

Overseas and Canadian deliveries greatly increased in 2019, adding significantly to the total, so the chart is misleading, deceptive, and dishonestly labelled.

Worldwide total deliveries are undoubtedly available from numerous sources, but GSY chose to use this dishonest chart instead. I wonder why?

From InsideEVs Only up to July, but :-

Tesla Global July Sales
               July      Year To date
Tesla 3:- 19,000,   147,000        Just under 5,000 per week.
Model X    2,600      20,300
Model S       500        7,700        No data - Guess
Total        22,600      175,000     Just under 6,000 per week

Tesla 3 a measly, pathetic 33% increase on July 2018. Bankruptcy looms!

(From GSY's table - 15,650 All models July US sales).

https://insideevs.com/news/367908/global-ev-sales-in-july-2019/
Quote

Global EV Sales In July 2019: Growth Almost Stalled
China and U.S. heavily weighed in on the plug-in electric car sales in July, which increased by just 3% year-over-year
July 2019 turned out to be a difficult month for plug-in electric car market as the growth rate decreased to one of the lowest levels in the past few years. According to the EV Sales Blog, total sales amounted to over 148,000, which is just 3% more than a year ago, at a market share of 1.9%.

The reason for that is a drop in China, a drop in the U.S. and among big markets, only Europe showcased a healthy expansion. After seven months, sales exceed 1,262,000 at an average market share of 2.3%.

TESLA
Models rank
The Tesla Model 3 continues being sold at a rate not seen in the EV business and already is approaching 150,000 for the year. The monthly result of 19,057 was more than two times higher than the 2nd best, however "only" 33% better than a year ago. It means that the period of three-digit growth comes to an end.


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NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3535 on: September 08, 2019, 05:22:29 PM »
Whilst I understand what InsideEV's is trying to say, it is more than a bit daft talking about 3 digit growth coming to an end.  100% growth is exponential growth.  Granted the exponent is only 2, but nobody in business ever seriously considers long term exponential growth.

Tesla would have to double manufacturing capacity every year to achieve that and, as we have seen, giga3 is about as fast as it gets and, even then, it is not scaled for 100% of giga's 1/2.

The major manufacturers would tear your arm off for 15% growth in sales, year on year, let alone the 30's.

This is only possible when you are ramping up output where the factory has been under producing and demand is constrained by supply.

There were other ways of saying this but the negative view was chosen.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3536 on: September 08, 2019, 05:39:47 PM »
The major manufacturers would tear your arm off for 15% growth in sales, year on year, let alone the 30's.

There were other ways of saying this but the negative view was chosen.
InsideEVs said "only". Note the quotation marks. I think you've left your sense of humour somewhere

Meanwhile - context
https://www.statista.com/statistics/200002/international-car-sales-since-1990/
Quote
The global auto industry expects to sell some 77 million automobiles by the end of 2019. The sector is projected to experience a downward trend on the back of a slowing global economy.

Saturation in developed markets
In light of a state that could be dubbed 'peak car' in developed markets, carmakers are particularly keen on tapping into the growing affluence of Asian countries to increase worldwide car sales. Passenger vehicle sales in China reached 23.7 million units in 2018, and Asia’s economic powerhouse has emerged as the number one sales market for passenger cars.

Market stalls on weak demand in Asia
However, China appears to be grappling with an economic slowdown in 2019. Although the economy is still growing, there are fears that a recession may be looming. This could be disastrous for the automobile industry, as it relies so much on China. Volkswagen alone, albeit in collaboration with its local joint ventures, sold some four million light vehicles in China in 2018. It is expected that automakers will undertake unprecedented investment programs to grow their businesses not only in China, but also in ASEAN markets. That said, there will likely be a growth saturation curve in all of these markets.

Previously, it had been estimated that international car sales may reach 80 million in 2019; however, as economic woes continue, demand for new motor vehicles is shrinking.

https://www.best-selling-cars.com/international/2019-latest-international-worldwide-car-sales/
June 2019: Brazil was the only major car market to expand with car sales lower in the USA, Russia, Japan, China, Europe and India.
Region   June 2019   % Change   1-6/2019   % Change
Europe (EU+EFTA)   1,491,300   -7.9   8,426,200   -3.1
Russia*   151,200   -3.3   828,800   -2.4
USA*   1,514,900   -1.9   8,412,900   -1.9
Japan   367,000   -2.2   2,285,700   -0.3
Brazil*   214,000   9.5   1,251,800   10.9
India   225,700   -17.5   1,556,800   -10.3
China   1,700,000   -7.1   9,932,900   -14.0
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3537 on: September 08, 2019, 06:40:22 PM »
From the ARK Invest interview with Musk in Feb. 2019 (starting around minute 3):
After explaining (for the audience) how Tesla doubled its fleet in 2018, and that a few months either way makes a huge difference on an exponential timeline, Elon said his guess was for 1.5 million Teslas in 2021 (plus or minus 6 months), and three million in 2023.

“Small changes in the calendar breakpoint have enormous percentage differences. The time difference is small, but the percentage difference is enormous.” — @elonmusk [0:06:07]

https://ark-invest.com/research/podcast/elon-musk-podcast
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NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3538 on: September 08, 2019, 07:59:27 PM »
Maybe I did leave my sense of humour at home gerontocrat.  Sorry GSY tends to do that to me.

Sig, if you look at my comments on this thread and the cars one before it, you will see I talk a lot about small sample sizes. This is a case in point.

If you look at those numbers they look really great. However, break them down and they look like:

450k per year out of Fremont and 350k out of Shanghai. Note he quoted 2 year figures, not one year and reflect 50% growth in fleet.  But very little growth in Fremont and 100%growth in Shanghai for the first year, followed by virtually 0% growth in the second year for Shanghai production.

If you extend that time line by 2 and 4 years, without a gigafactory4, fleet growth will rise to around 4.5m, in 2025 and 6m by 2027.  As each 2 year increment passes, the % fleet growth reduces drastically.  Even a Giga4 is only going to ramp that up by around 700k every 2 years and only from around 2022 at the very earliest.

There is nothing wrong with what Elon said, so long as you keep the context of "almost nothing" to "a few million" being exponential for an extremely short period.

The problem with trumpeting these kind of % changes is that when they start to fall dramatically, as they always were going to, the shorts start the machine going again. Even though Tesla will be doing better than ever, the shorts will have a metric to beat them with.

We have all seen enough of that in the climate debates.  Same kind of people to.
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KiwiGriff

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3539 on: September 08, 2019, 09:02:42 PM »
Tesla is already negotiating for an Assembly plant in Europe.
They have a preference for Germany .
It will not be built at the speed of china's construction,  two to two and a half years from signature to production is possible.
The more iterations of their production processes the more efficient they will become. 

NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3540 on: September 08, 2019, 11:21:24 PM »
But unless they start building a new factory every 6 months, fleet growth is going to visibly slow as an increased % of the whole.

That's not a bad thing, the worst offenses in the automotive profit business are overproduction. Not that the shorts want to see that.
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KiwiGriff

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3541 on: September 09, 2019, 04:22:28 AM »
Quote
But unless they start building a new factory every 6 months, fleet growth is going to visibly slow as an increased % of the whole.
Agree Neil
It is one thing doubling every year when you are talking a few thousand units.
Another thing entirely when you are talking of millions.
I don't see Tesla becoming a car as a commodity producer . That end of the market will likely be fulled by the Chinese or Koreans.
Tesla is aiming to  be the technology leader at a premium price point more like Audi's position than a mass market Toyota.

NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3542 on: September 09, 2019, 11:15:46 AM »
I'm not so sure.  I think Musk has defined the role of Tesla as the competition you cannot afford to ignore, therefore you must compete.  That competition will move the market faster than subsidies or almost any other incentive.

If Tesla has cast itself in that role, then it will, eventually, have to enter the commodity market.

It is easy to forget that Tesla has only been in existence for just over a decade, not 80 or 100 years.  Tesla has to come to commodity from the top down, standing on the premium revenues to do it.

Investors have no appetite for funding a war with the large manufacturers, that has to be done by Tesla themselves based on a business which is so large that it cannot simply be pushed aside.

I may be wrong but I would say sales would have to be $100bn or more before Tesla could afford to rake this step.  Profits would also have to be, at least, slightly positive too.

Of course at $100bn in sales, profits only have to be 0.5% in order to exceed all cumulative profits reported to date..

I'm not expecting Tesla to do a Henry Ford any time soon...
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3543 on: September 09, 2019, 06:58:08 PM »
As I noted above, Musk sees Tesla producing millions of cars a year by 2023.  He has also said that lower-cost Teslas were planned:

- In the June 2018 shareholder meeting Musk said “maybe five years” for a less expensive EV than the Model 3.  (That’s an occasion when he knows he needs to be very careful about what he says.)

- But in an interview with Marques Brownlee at the Fremont factory recorded August 15, 2018, Musk mentioned making a $25,000 car in three years “if we work really hard”
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=MevKTPN4ozw&feature=youtu.be

At the time, Electrek commented:
Quote
That’s interesting because it shows a willingness to potentially walk away from the “premium brand” factor with significantly less expensive vehicles.  It’s not something that many other premium automakers have dared to do without using a separate brand, like BMW with Mini or Mercedes-Benz with Smart.

That said, it certainly works into Tesla’s mission to accelerate the advent of electric transport. Cheaper vehicles reach even more people.  Though I would argue that the advent of fully autonomous and all-electric cars, even if they are more expensive, will likely make cheaper electric vehicles less important through the use of those cars in autonomous ride-hailing services, which should drag down vehicle ownership.

But the most important takeaway from Musk’s comment, in my opinion, is that he sees Tesla improving the cost of electric vehicles through economy scale and new technology at a fast enough pace that a $25,000 Tesla electric car would be feasible in about 3 years.
https://electrek.co/2018/08/17/tesla-cheaper-25000-electric-car-elon-musk/
Tesla could make a $25,000 electric car in ‘about 3 years’, says Elon Musk
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GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3544 on: September 09, 2019, 07:39:08 PM »
And yes, Giga1 and Giga2 are mostly empty. Giga1 space is about a third utilized and Giga2 is an even bigger joke with at most 20% utilized.

Claiming that factories which will produce, this year, between 300,000 and 360,000 vehicles, to be empty, is just trolling.

There is no point in discussing that statement any further..

You are the TROLL. You could not be more intellectually dishonest...

I state that the factories are mostly empty (WHICH IS TRUE), and you say that the factories produce 1/3M vehicles and thus are clearly not empty, implying that I am claiming them to be totally empty.

(Ironically, the factories in question DONT produce ANY cars. Giga1 does batteries, and Giga2 does solar.)

You are factually wrong about what you are discussing AND doing so in an intellectually dishonest way. Pathetic.
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NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3545 on: September 09, 2019, 07:43:40 PM »

You are factually wrong about what you are discussing AND doing so in an intellectually dishonest way. Pathetic.


OK, I'll give you that.

Tesla has two gigafactories that don't produce cars.  Ergo Tesla is going to go bust because they don't produce cars at them.

Right, got your logic.  Thanks.  I shall be more precise from now on.
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GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3546 on: September 09, 2019, 07:45:04 PM »
The upper chart presented, purportedly showing 2018 and 2019 total deliveries, actually shows total US only deliveries, excluding non-US deliveries.

Fair point. But H1 19 was in fact lower than H2 18 globally. Jus

Worldwide total deliveries are undoubtedly available from numerous sources, but GSY chose to use this dishonest chart instead. I wonder why?

So it may be slightly overstating the shrinkage, but I wasn't trying to mislead. I wanted to show that auto sales are shrinking (which from many perspectives they are), and that was the first chart I found. Probably should have just made the chart myself.

The overall point though is correct. Auto and Solar are definitely not growing, and it will not be possible for Tesla to grow their way out of their debt burden.
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GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3547 on: September 09, 2019, 07:46:38 PM »

You are factually wrong about what you are discussing AND doing so in an intellectually dishonest way. Pathetic.


OK, I'll give you that.

Tesla has two gigafactories that don't produce cars.  Ergo Tesla is going to go bust because they don't produce cars at them.

Right, got your logic.  Thanks.  I shall be more precise from now on.

Total straw man. I never said that. Not at all.

My point was that Tesla is not Giga factory constrained. They are demand constrained. Hence the falling prices and flat-at-best sales.
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GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3548 on: September 09, 2019, 07:50:07 PM »
Watch fraudster master fElon present a product that was 100% inoperable and fake.

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NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3549 on: September 09, 2019, 07:50:53 PM »
Tesla could make a $25,000 electric car in ‘about 3 years’, says Elon Musk

Of course that will be a 2018 cost $25,000 car at 2021 prices.  Or around 27,000 or more.  I would also not expect many to sell at that price as they'll be expecting people to buy extra's.

So when the $25,000 car does not appear, but a true cost $32,000 car does appear, I'll see that Tesla has broken down another barrier.

It will be a decade, at least, before Tesla even thinks about dipping its toe in the sub $20,000 market.  If ever.

Even then I don't see Tesla being on the losing side of vehicle manufacturing any time soon.  Once it gets the EU factory up and running and the China factory at full speed, they will probably be manufacturing over 1m cars per year.

BTW did you see the reddit comments about new construction beginning on the Giga3 site?  Talking about Phase 2.  I'm wondering where that will go to or if it is just ancillary buildings which are there to smooth the process?
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