Production and delivery numbers likely within ~ a week.
So bring together summary of previous quarters for comparison:
Production
Qtr_____Model 3__S/X___Total
Q2 2018 28,578 24,761 53,339
Q3 2018 53,239 26,903 80,142
Q4 2018 61,394 25,161 86,555
Q1 2019 62,950 14,150 77,100
Q2 2019 72,531 14,517 87,048
Deliveries
Qtr_____Model 3__S/X___Total
Q2 2018 18,440 22,300 40,740
Q3 2018 55,840 27,660 83,500
Q4 2018 63,150 27,550 90,700
Q1 2019 50,900 12,100 63,000
Q2 2019 77,550 17,650 95,200
and the outlook from Q2 update letter was
We are working to increase our deliveries sequentially and annually, with some expected fluctuations from seasonality. This is consistent with our previous guidance of 360,000 to 400,000 vehicle deliveries this year.
Additionally, we expect positive quarterly free cash flow, with possible temporary exceptions, particularly around the launch and ramp of new products. We believe our business has grown to the point of being self-funding.
So the expectation seems to be slightly more than 95k. Minimum to achieve low end of range looks something like 63k + 95k + 96k + 106k. Giga 3 may produce a few thousand in Q4 but 96k deliveries looks to be potentially seen as barely or even not on target for low end of range. I am thinking top end of range 400k for 2019 is not really realistic; would need at least 110k which would be remarkably good.
I am thinking
Perhaps 96k a little disappointing; and less would be worse.
97k-100k reasonable expectation
anything above is looking good.
However this isn't really based on much. I haven't heard much about record production/delivery rates.
Only need 78k for the half year to beat second half of 2019. Wonder if GSY will move the goalposts and change from using 'half year' figures which was useful for him so that he could include the bad Q1 figures to some other measure that allows Q1 to still be included in recent period, perhaps 2019 to date figures?
