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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3700 on: September 25, 2019, 09:25:38 PM »
Re: benevolent dictatorships
All power tends to corrupt, and absolute power corrupts absolutely
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

blumenkraft

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3701 on: September 25, 2019, 09:31:36 PM »
Benevolent dictatorships are pretty common in open source software development. Doesn't corrupt the benevolent dictators here usually.
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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3702 on: September 25, 2019, 09:39:24 PM »
How much power does the open source dictator have?
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

blumenkraft

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3703 on: September 25, 2019, 09:45:03 PM »
They decide which pull request gets accepted.
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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3704 on: September 25, 2019, 09:46:13 PM »
Rather less than controlling every act of millions of people.
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

blumenkraft

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3705 on: September 25, 2019, 09:52:23 PM »
Well, the internet runs on Linux. There are scenarios thinkable where Linus Torvalds could have controlled every act of billions of people.
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KiwiGriff

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3706 on: September 25, 2019, 10:48:50 PM »
Nirvana fallacy
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Jump to navigationJump to search
The nirvana fallacy is the informal fallacy of comparing actual things with unrealistic, idealized alternatives.[1] It can also refer to the tendency to assume that there is a perfect solution to a particular problem. A closely related concept is the perfect solution fallacy.

By creating a false dichotomy that presents one option which is obviously advantageous—while at the same time being completely implausible—a person using the nirvana fallacy can attack any opposing idea because it is imperfect. Under this fallacy, the choice is not between real world solutions; it is, rather, a choice between one realistic achievable possibility and another unrealistic solution that could in some way be "better".

blumenkraft

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3707 on: September 25, 2019, 10:55:17 PM »
Very interesting! TIL.
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TerryM

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3708 on: September 25, 2019, 11:09:41 PM »
Many first world adults are too comfortable in their ways to change.  But the younger folks embrace a different reality.
Quote
Vincent (@vincent13031925) 9/21/19, 11:20 AM
All kids in my 8 years old’s elementary think Tesla cars are very cool & some of them even know who is @elonmusk
They do care about environmental more than most of the adults.
https://twitter.com/vincent13031925/status/1175429667802628097
Image below.

From the replies:
< Vincent, I notice the same thing at my kid’s elementary school. Don’t think that the next generation will be pining for an Audi or BMW or VW when they’re old enough to drive. All they want is Tesla! They know moral leadership to save the planet when they see it.
K10✨: The kids know & love them. I love driving by the bus stops & waving, the kids love the Tesla.  :D
< Was cheered the other day by a bunch of kids on the sidewalk screaming "Tesla !". Never saw that with any other brand

Tesla Chick: Came out of Target yesterday to find an SUV circling my car. Teenage admirers. The younger generation gets it.
< similar thing happened to me yesterday. A kid on a mono wheel electric skateboard waved and gave me a thumbs up. :)
< Today 2 kids stopped in front of my house and one told me : “love your Tesla, man”  8)

< A couple of 5 yrs olds raced by my car, giggled, pointed, and whispered like it was a rockstar, “Tesla!”. Groups of children have waved to me from the city sidewalk until I have waved back to them. The other day at a stop light, a pre-teen was waving from her mom’s Model S. ;D
< My almost 5 yrs old kids know to wave when they see another Tesla. And they recognize Tesla when they see one!
< It’s fascinating how kids prefer Tesla over more expensive Cars. Three of my nephews ages 7, 9, & 11. Prefers my Model 3 than my Porsche Targa GTS. Couple of times I was approach by kids at MCD saying nice Tesla.

Sofiaan Fraval (@Sofiaan) 9/22/19, 1:24 AM
These guys drove by the supercharger on a Saturday night just to film Teslas!
Got a wave from this future #Tesla owner.

https://twitter.com/sofiaan/status/1175642113616171008
Teslacam video at the link: a car drives by; the back seat passenger takes cellphone pic of the Tesla, and waves.


Sig
Don't you see that what you've copied and pasted above is a damning a portrait of Tesla owners? When is the last time that you respected an adult who spent $50K, then justified his purchase based on the perception of pre-teens in the neighborhood?


Terry


Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3709 on: September 26, 2019, 02:14:25 AM »
...

Sig
Don't you see that what you've copied and pasted above is a damning a portrait of Tesla owners? When is the last time that you respected an adult who spent $50K, then justified his purchase based on the perception of pre-teens in the neighborhood?

Terry

No, Terry, I do not see that at all.  I see oodles of kids loving the fact that there can be a world where dirty, polluting ICE vehicles no longer exist, and appreciating when others are motivated enough to spend the money to help make that happen just a little bit faster.

—-
Edit:

Quote
National Geographic Magazine
What invention do you think has changed the world most drastically?

Dr. Kate Marvel:
The combustion engine has contributed to a 45% increase in atmospheric CO2, a 1C rise in temperature, and a 7” rise in sea level.

Fossil fuels have literally changed the world.
https://twitter.com/drkatemarvel/status/1176913017499529216
« Last Edit: September 26, 2019, 02:36:45 AM by Sigmetnow »
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3710 on: September 26, 2019, 04:16:56 AM »
Ever-increasing demand.
Quote
Tesla Joy (@TeslaJoy) 9/25/19, 2:34 PM
While walking Ginger this morning, a neighbor flagged me down. He said he’s thinking about getting a Tesla and had questions on where I charge. He’s looking at a Model 3 too and wants to get it once his Subaru lease is up in 2 months. One conversion at the time!
https://twitter.com/teslajoy/status/1176927991340732416
< That’s awesome. I had a guy flag me down at Home Depot asking lots of questions about my model 3. It’s great to share info with people who are generally interested and positive. Oh looks like CT is getting a new fast ver 3 Tesla supercharger in Meriden CT soon! I’m excited

——
Not Autopilot, but Tesla safety feature:
Quote
Tesla Mid-Missouri (@TeslaMidMO) 9/25/19, 2:13 AM
Tesla safety features....they’re crafty, they might save your life.
https://twitter.com/teslamidmo/status/1176741541882343424
38-second video at the link:  Tesla driver tells the story of her car giving her a warning... about a traffic backup she couldn’t see, because it was around a curve on a back road.
[We know Tesla Radar can see ahead by bouncing the radar off the road, under a car in front. But a blind curve...!]
« Last Edit: September 26, 2019, 04:40:53 AM by Sigmetnow »
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GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3711 on: September 26, 2019, 08:21:23 AM »
I see oodles of kids loving the fact that there can be a world where dirty, polluting ICE vehicles no longer exist, and appreciating when others are motivated enough to spend the money to help make that happen just a little bit faster.

Your obsession with internal combustion engines is odd. I think your hatred is misplaced.

Fossil fuels power everything and make everything because they are extremely energy dense. That is it, that is all. Nothing else even comes close.

The "transition" is not to fossil fuel alternative (hint: none exist), but to using fossil fuels for longer lasting purposes so that over time less and less need to be used because enough capital has been built.

Yes, EVs are a more efficient use of fossil fuel energy than ICE vehicles. And yes, making a wind turbine is a more efficient use of fossil fuels than burning it to turn a power plant turbine. But these things are simply less bad as far as emissions are concerned. They are not "good". The real changes need that are actually GOOD are way-of-life changes. People need to NOT drive cars. People need to NOT rely on power hungry appliances. Those things are cheer worthy. Cheering Tesla on in the name of the climate is like cheering on the torturer who uses the least spiky bludgeon. 


Y'all seem to think that fossil fuels are simply the enemy. There are major movements in the world today supporting fossil fuel bans. This is akin to outlawing anything invented since the bronze age.

What separates humans from other animals is our ability to control fire. As we advanced, we have found denser and denser energy stores to burn. There is no escaping this basic reality. If you are opposed to people burning things, the only answer is for humans to all die off or at least revert back to pre-fire days like a million years ago (which we are no longer biologically suited for, so basically death is the only answer).


EDIT (for genny's germaneness):

Tesla is structurally bankrupt. As their revenue has increase, so have their losses, despite shrinking capex and R&D. Good day.
« Last Edit: September 26, 2019, 03:31:12 PM by GoSouthYoungins »
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Rob Dekker

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3712 on: September 26, 2019, 10:19:28 AM »
I see oodles of kids loving the fact that there can be a world where dirty, polluting ICE vehicles no longer exist, and appreciating when others are motivated enough to spend the money to help make that happen just a little bit faster.

Your obsession with internal combustion engines is odd. I think your hatred is misplaced.

Fossil fuels power everything and make everything because they are extremely energy dense. That is it, that is all. Nothing else even comes close.

The "transition" is not to fossil fuel alternative (hint: none exist), but to using fossil fuels for longer lasting purposes so that over time less and less need to be used because enough capital has been built.

Yes, EVs are a more efficient use of fossil fuel energy than ICE vehicles. And yes, making a wind turbine is a more efficient use of fossil fuels than burning it to turn a power plant turbine. But these things are simply less bad as far as emissions are concerned. They are not "good". The real changes need that are actually GOOD are way-of-life changes. People need to NOT drive cars. People need to NOT rely on power hungry appliances. Those things are cheer worthy. Cheering Tesla on in the name of the climate is like cheering on the torturer who uses the least spiky bludgeon. 


Y'all seem to think that fossil fuels are simply the enemy. There are major movements in the world today supporting fossil fuel bans. This is akin to outlawing anything invented since the bronze age.

What separates humans from other animals is our ability to control fire. As we advanced, we have found denser and denser energy stores to burn. There is no escaping this basic reality. If you are opposed to people burning things, the only answer is for humans to all die off or at least revert back to pre-fire days like a million years ago (which we are no longer biologically suited for, so basically death is the only answer).

I did not know that this train of (doomsday) thought still existed, but, surprise, surprise, there it is again.

Sigh. Here we go again :

The problem of carbon emissions is not solved by demanding people to stop driving cars or even telling them to use public transportation instead, or putting limits on the weight of cars or telling them to stop flying.

Apart from the fact that these authoritarian measures will cause severe backlash from the people, they also do very little to reduce the carbon footprint.

And even if they do, for each person reducing car use, there are 4 people around the planet who want to get out of poverty and into some sort of middle-class where they can live a decent life.

So the problem is NOT going to be solved by "changing lifestyles".

The problem with carbon emissions is ONLY going to be solved by TAKING THE CARBON OUT.

That means electrifying our transportation systems, de-carbonizing our energy systems, and de-carbonizing everything else we do.

As an example, if you would force people to drive a smaller car, you may save 50% in car carbon emissions, but they are going to be upset and fight you for life.

If instead, like Tesla, you offer an EV which outperforms their ICE vehicle, they reduce their car carbon emissions by 80% (current California electric grid carbon portfolio) and they will support you for life.

And as we de-carbonize the electric grid with more and more renewables, that number gets even better.
This is our planet. This is our time.
Let's not waste either.

gerontocrat

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3713 on: September 26, 2019, 12:57:53 PM »
Neven made the rule that this thread was about Tesla's business being successful or going bust.

Every so often it reverts to a general discussion about lifestyle, human survival etc. etc. etc - the argument recycled for the umpteenth time.

"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
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GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3714 on: September 26, 2019, 03:40:39 PM »
Ever-increasing demand.

No. Try again.

Tesla has cut prices at least 3 times this year. And they are not selling more cars than they were H2 2018.

So if the supply demand curve is not currently comprehendable for you, and you can't grasp that Tesla demand is shrinking, here is an interactive chart for you to play with...

https://www.econlowdown.org/supply_and_demand?module_uid=120&section_uid=292&page_num=7136&p=yes
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oren

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3715 on: September 26, 2019, 04:01:08 PM »
Why not wait another week to see what quarterly sales were actually like, instead of these huge images that contribute to nothing?
You've made a sound prediction upthread, was it 90k deliveries? I have no clue myself, this time.
Patience.

GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3716 on: September 26, 2019, 04:30:07 PM »
Why not wait another week to see what quarterly sales were actually like, instead of these huge images that contribute to nothing?
You've made a sound prediction upthread, was it 90k deliveries? I have no clue myself, this time.
Patience.

Because sig non-stop makes claims that fly directly in the face of the very most basic economic understandings. And not a single Tesla bull ever acknowledges it. All yall ever do is whine, "please don't bring these things up. that image is too big."
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GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3717 on: September 26, 2019, 04:33:32 PM »
https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2019/09/solarcity-was-insolvent-when-tesla-paid-2-6-billion-to-buy-it-lawsuit-says/?utm_source=twitter&utm_social-type=owned&utm_brand=ars&utm_medium=social

"But SolarCity, of which Tesla CEO Elon Musk was chairman, was deeply in debt at the time. Now, newly unsealed documents in an investor lawsuit say the situation was far worse than that. They allege that SolarCity wasn't just carrying a heavy debt load: it was completely insolvent."

Imagine that: a fElon Musk run company which he claims is doing amazing, but that is actually totally structurally bankwrupt. Hmmm...sounds very familiar.

The best part is how intertwined the fElon frauds are. SpaceX buys SolarCity debt to keep them afloat while Musk gins up fake future growth based on fake products to convince the Tesla shareholders to fully bail out SolarCity.
big time oops

crandles

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3718 on: September 26, 2019, 05:51:16 PM »
Production and delivery numbers likely within ~ a week.

So bring together summary of previous quarters for comparison:

Production
Qtr_____Model 3__S/X___Total
Q2 2018 28,578 24,761 53,339
Q3 2018 53,239 26,903 80,142 
Q4 2018 61,394 25,161 86,555
Q1 2019 62,950 14,150 77,100
Q2 2019 72,531 14,517 87,048

Deliveries
Qtr_____Model 3__S/X___Total
Q2 2018 18,440 22,300 40,740
Q3 2018 55,840 27,660 83,500
Q4 2018 63,150 27,550 90,700
Q1 2019 50,900 12,100 63,000
Q2 2019 77,550 17,650 95,200

and the outlook from Q2 update letter was

Quote
We are working to increase our deliveries sequentially and annually, with some expected fluctuations from seasonality. This is consistent with our previous guidance of 360,000 to 400,000 vehicle deliveries this year.

Additionally, we expect positive quarterly free cash flow, with possible temporary exceptions, particularly around the launch and ramp of new products. We believe our business has grown to the point of being self-funding.

So the expectation seems to be slightly more than 95k. Minimum to achieve low end of range looks something like 63k + 95k + 96k + 106k. Giga 3 may produce a few thousand in Q4 but 96k deliveries looks to be potentially seen as barely or even not on target for low end of range. I am thinking top end of range 400k for 2019 is not really realistic; would need at least 110k which would be remarkably good.

I am thinking
Perhaps 96k a little disappointing; and less would be worse.
97k-100k reasonable expectation
anything above is looking good.

However this isn't really based on much. I haven't heard much about record production/delivery rates.

Only need 78k for the half year to beat second half of 2019. Wonder if GSY will move the goalposts and change from using 'half year' figures which was useful for him so that he could include the bad Q1 figures to some other measure that allows Q1 to still be included in recent period, perhaps 2019 to date figures?

GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3719 on: September 26, 2019, 06:17:30 PM »
fElon earlier this year on twitter,"Tesla made 0 cars in 2011, but will make around 500k in 2019."

lol

What a fraud.

Bulls, what do you think he was mistaken about? Or is it just plain, cut and dry, fraud? Can yall even come up with a theoretical force majeure that isn't laughable?!?

EDIT: to be fair, fElon knew he was going to get security fraud caught again, so he added an addendum "clarifying" that he "meant" the production rate would be 10k/wk by the end of the year.
« Last Edit: September 26, 2019, 06:23:01 PM by GoSouthYoungins »
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philopek

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3720 on: September 26, 2019, 07:39:54 PM »
It has been told many times before and i not so gladly repeat:

Sales and Production in this case don't matter because:

- If a product is produced and sold at an overall loss for the manufacturere, almost
everything can be produced and sold in any numbers, depending on the loss that
one can or is willing to accept.

- If Tesla would make a minor profit for 10 years without exception, it's depts after those ten
years would still be greater than now and 50 millions of profits won't do either and 100 Millions of profit as well not.

- Larger profits in the amount needed to amortize EXISTING debts are nowhere in sight. No stable and regular profits are in sight at all, but certainly no profits as needed to survive.

This last point alone makes any other reasoning and exchange of ifs and buts useless.

As GSY just said above, most of the posts here are totally illusionist and far off any mark when compared to economic realities and this at around zero percent interest rate. Just Imagine
a raise in interest rates withing the next 10 years, what would happen?

Yes exactly! Boooommmm....

I hope that at least everyone understood by now that smaller and lighter vehicles do not contradict electrification. Saving weight costs money which is why it has to be force by law like all other law enforced technological hurdles that have been implemented over the last 4 decades.

blumenkraft

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3721 on: September 26, 2019, 08:04:26 PM »
Even if Tesla makes losses for the next four years Elon raised two more billions in VC and they can still build new car factories and also expand on the battery/solar/self-driving business.
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KiwiGriff

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3722 on: September 26, 2019, 08:04:49 PM »
 philopek thinks building  new factorys to satisfy demand is a loss for a company.

Tesla produces complete Model 3 body-in-white at Gigafactory 3, production to start Oct. 14
https://electrek.co/guides/tesla/

Tesla ‘has a shot’ at record 100,000 cars this quarter – Elon Musk in email leak
https://electrek.co/guides/tesla/

Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3723 on: September 26, 2019, 08:06:17 PM »
Tesla 'has a shot' at record 100,000 cars this quarter - Elon Musk in email leak
https://electrek.co/2019/09/26/tesladelivering-record-cars-quarter-elon-musk-leak-email/

Tesla (TSLA) gets bold 'Buy' rating and $324 price target from Chinese finance firm
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-tsla-china-renaissance-buy-324-price-target/

“Smart Summon” — which allows the car to navigate parking lots without a driver inside — will be worth millions in advertising to the brand.  No other production car can do it, it’s cool, and it’s a major head-turner.  Being downloaded to existing Teslas now!
Tesla's V10 full release notes confirms Smart Summon and Spotify streaming
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-v10-full-release-notes-smart-summon-spotify/

Watch Tesla’s Smart Summon impressively navigate parking lots driverless
https://electrek.co/2019/09/24/tesla-smart-summon-driverless-video/
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blumenkraft

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3724 on: September 26, 2019, 08:07:23 PM »
Tesla produces complete Model 3 body-in-white at Gigafactory 3, production to start Oct. 14
https://electrek.co/guides/tesla/

GSY, what was it you wanted to do when the first car leaves Gigafactory 3? :)
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3725 on: September 26, 2019, 08:42:36 PM »
Tesla produces complete Model 3 body-in-white at Gigafactory 3, production to start Oct. 14
https://electrek.co/guides/tesla/

GSY, what was it you wanted to do when the first car leaves Gigafactory 3? :)

How is this possible?!  Last March, GSY was adamant that in one year there would be nothing but a mud field, because Musk is always wrong about everything, and no other factory has been built so quickly so of course this one could not be. ::)
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blumenkraft

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3726 on: September 26, 2019, 08:52:32 PM »
I know. He promised to stop posting or something if only one car leaves the Gigafactory 3. I remember vaguely. Will look it up when GSY tries to deny it. ;)
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3727 on: September 26, 2019, 09:07:47 PM »
fElon earlier this year on twitter,"Tesla made 0 cars in 2011, but will make around 500k in 2019."

I'm not sure there is any point in this as he corrected himself within a few hours to say production rate at the end of the year would equate to 500k.  On this measure he's looking pretty close and it's not like he's been changing his mind every 5 minutes as to his aims.

https://twitter.com/flcnhvy/status/1139741677147578369?s=20

Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3728 on: September 26, 2019, 09:39:33 PM »
Video of the "#Model3 madness" at Koopman Auto Terminal in Amsterdam
Quote
Jurjen Kers (@jurjenkers) 9/26/19, 2:33 PM
Video:Jacq Stals FB page Tesla Model3 BE NL Eigenaars, Bestellers en Fans
https://twitter.com/jurjenkers/status/1177289990864285698
H/t https://twitter.com/mortenlund89/status/1177293172927619072
Quote
Jon Hast (@TeslaSono) 9/26/19, 2:43 PM
When I was picking up my new #Tesla Model 3, the Dartford delivery center had over 70 cars waiting / being prepared, and more arriving by lorry. This is one U.K. centre, it’ll be a really great quarter for @Tesla $TSLA
https://twitter.com/teslasono/status/1177292676733050880
Photos at the link.

—-
V10 update is huge.
Quote
Tesla (@Tesla) 9/26/19, 3:20 PM
Where have you parked your Tesla?
But also, who cares?
Our Smart Summon feature means your car collects *you* from the parking lot.

https://twitter.com/tesla/status/1177301824128393225
- You don’t know what to do. You don’t know what to eat.
You trust the opinion of strangers, but you don’t want to talk to them.
With V10, your Tesla can direct you to the nearest highly rated places and the best food. You just need to say whether you’re feeling [Lucky] or [Hungry].

- Basically, Version 10.0 is so good you’re going to want to name your children after it. Especially if it’s your tenth child.
The update is rolling out over the next week and you can try it in one of our stores.
See what else is packed into the update:

Introducing Software Version 10.0 | Tesla
https://www.tesla.com/blog/introducing-software-version-10-0
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crandles

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3729 on: September 26, 2019, 09:56:46 PM »

-I'm still confident Tesla will be BK by march 2020.
-I never said Giga 3 would remain a muddy field until next year (nice try though Strawoman).
-I did say that they won't own the Giga3 by march and I stand by that.


THE mud field. It was a mud field. They won't own any of it.

If I had said that Tesla will own 0% of A mud field, you would be correct.

What is happening with the Giga3 is pretty straightforward. The chinese get a factory, partially paid for by Tesla. Tesla gets to pretend it has a growth story.

In 1 year, Tesla will own 0% of the mud field. And Tesla will be seen as a mix of Enron, Theranos, and DeLorean.

Own 0% of land on which factory is built, is I believe true. Do Tesla have the right to use the factory? Of course they do.

Tesla will lose at least 95% of its "value" this year.

Tesla's Shanghai assembly plant to be completed in May - The factory to have its own production lines by the end of the year.


Negative one billion percent chance.

How can anyone possibly believe a muddy field is going to be a factory in 2 months? Just absurd.

Haven't found a promise to stop posting in March or by searching for 'mud field' and a few other searches. Though GSY does seem to have stopped posting about SpaceX as promised now Starhopper has flown. So good on him for keeping to his word there.

blumenkraft

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3730 on: September 26, 2019, 10:12:10 PM »
I think it was even earlier than that. Don't found the motivation to waste my time on that so far.

Thanks for the effort though, Crandles. :)
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oren

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3731 on: September 26, 2019, 10:20:44 PM »
Quote
- If Tesla would make a minor profit for 10 years without exception, it's depts after those ten
years would still be greater than now and 50 millions of profits won't do either and 100 Millions of profit as well not.

- Larger profits in the amount needed to amortize EXISTING debts are nowhere in sight. No stable and regular profits are in sight at all, but certainly no profits as needed to survive.
Philopek, you are confusing and mixing between profits/losses and between debt/financing.
Tesla does not need profits to pay back its debt. On the other hand, even if profitable it will not necessarily pay down its debt. Debta are a cash flow issue, profits are profits, it's a different accounting altogether.
Examples: Tesla's factories are depreciated. Profits go down, cash flow is not affected.
Tesla pays back debt, cash flow is negatively afffected, profits are not affected.
Tesla raises capital via a stock offering, cash flow is positively affected, profit is not affected.
I am not saying Tesla will survive, or will go bankrupt. Both outcomes are possible. But you seem to think there's only one outcome - bankrupt because of high debt, and the logic you use to prove it is flawed.

NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3732 on: September 26, 2019, 10:23:15 PM »
I do love it when others agree.

Quote
It might be easy for an ultra-cool Tesla to stomp a subcompact hatchback, but could the Model S and Model 3 hold their own against a classic German luxury brand or an American icon?

Early signs suggest that, yes, it might be able to do just that.

https://www.fool.com/pwa/investing/2019/09/25/3-signs-the-tesla-killer-theory-may-already-be-dea.aspx

As for the constant carping over not being able to make a profit, it is wearysome to keep pointing out that if you produce 150k cars and make a 1.2bn loss; then you produce 350k cars and make a 1.2bn loss, you are not descending into receivership, you are ascending into success.

Being right too soon is socially unacceptable.

Robert A. Heinlein

Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3733 on: September 26, 2019, 10:51:17 PM »
GSY’s claim that Tesla “has never been profitable” is of course a lie, since the company showed a profit in Q3 2016, and Q3 and Q4 2018.  (Odds are good for profitability this quarter, as well.)

He’s been forced to resort to “but Musk has said Tesla will be profitable for years now...” or to ignore profitable quarters, but I don’t think he’s been brave enough to promise to do anything if it happens again this quarter.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3734 on: September 26, 2019, 11:05:37 PM »
Just did a quick search on "China Daily" on Tesla. (China Daily prints what and how the Party indicates)

China is treating Musk as their New Best Friend.  If he manages not to screw up (hubris is a Musk failing) in 5 years China could well be the real engine of Tesla's Auto Business.

https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/201908/29/WS5d67cadfa310cf3e35568aa0.html
Elon Musk says progress at Tesla Shanghai factory is 'mind-blowing'
Xinhua | Updated: 2019-08-29 20:53
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

KiwiGriff

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3735 on: September 26, 2019, 11:16:24 PM »
Tesla killers is the wrong outlook. There is plenty of room for Tesla and competitors in the rapidly expanding electric car market .
Electric cars are all ICE killers.
The hundreds of billions the legacy industry has invested in ICE will be near worthless by around 2025.
legacy industry is facing a shrinking market share for their mainstream offerings with the prospect of needing to support and develop two competing product lines in ICE and electric to survive.
Many company's invested in the ICE production stream will go bankrupt.


crandles

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3736 on: September 26, 2019, 11:25:58 PM »
A year and a day ago:

Quote
Tesla starts building its own car carriers due to ‘extreme shortage’ in Model 3 delivery rush week, says Elon Musk
I don't dig this. Is this some special Tesla expertise? Do they really need more in-house projects?

It is just a Muskian lie, to deflect the delivery problems, with a pseudo-fix.

This is part for the course. Musk just tells one lie to bail out the last lie and confuse the easily confused. He is constantly saying this nonsense...

We are bringing repairs in house! (deflects from the fact that repair shops are not repairing due to lack of parts from Tesla)

We will be producing 5000 model 3s per week by the end of 2017! (still not even true, but it was just espoused to deflect from terrible financials)

We have 420,000 model 3 reservations! (they clearly do not have nearly that many customers. but it drummed  up enough optimism to convince shareholders to bail out solar city)

The model 3 will be able to have a high gross margin because it will be built almost entirely by robots...the factory will the THE ALIEN DREADKNOT!!! Our tolerences will be tighter than ever seen before  (total nonsense, the manufacturing ends up less mechanized than normal for 2018 and the quality control is a joke)

Check out this solar roof tile! Its incredible! (it is actually totally nonfunctional, but this is just a distraction from how bad of an acquisition solar city was)

We haven't been subpoenaed by the DOJ! (obfiscates the reality that the DOJ just piggy backs on the SECs subpoenas, and that the DOJ wouldn't even be involved if the SEC had not found serious wrong-doing)

Tesla's bankruptcy countdown should be done in weeks, not even months. I'll be genuinely impressed and confused if they are in business come new years.  Put options pay 100-1 if they are bust by Jan 1....OMFG...is the whole world nuts. Maybe I am the one of crazy pills.

crandles

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3737 on: September 26, 2019, 11:37:58 PM »
Ahh, maybe it was this: though stop posting was only suggested by oren. Answering the question possibly suggests GSY is agreeing to such terms but there may be some wriggle room as in answering to try to be helpful but not really agreeing to those terms.


Quote
The day is almost upon us.
Is there some kind of date by which either Tesla goes bankrupt or you finally quit your endless harping about the imminent bankruptcy? I seem to recall you recently wrote that it's only a few weeks away. How about:
By mid-November?
The end of this year?
Feb 2019?
May 2019?
Please pick a date based on your confidence level (which does seem quite high recently), so we can understand what imminent actually means, and so we may get a chance of putting this to rest.

Seems like there is a juggling act currently so I wouldn't be surprised if the ball drops any day. A new BoD set up will occur in the next 2/3 months and they will hopefully have the sense to file. But to truly answer your questions: Jan 2019. They have debt payments that they don't have the cash for (12/31/18 they need a spare 400mm on top the 900mm payment due in march. There is also 400mm due in november. So $1.7 billion total spare cash needed). They have neither the cash nor the capability to raise money from operations and seemingly can't go back to capital markets.  Can someone explain how/why Tesla could meet its obligations over the next 6 months?

cognitivebias2

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3738 on: September 27, 2019, 12:51:42 AM »
TSLA is the new ZERO.

The only chance the equity has is some form of a bailout, whether public or private. There is no chance the company Tesla, without restructure, ever makes an annual profit.

If Tesla makes an annual profit (or if any other Musk company ever does, [currently about 0/50 ]) I will quit posting.


FYI, if you think you are pro green stuff, you shouldn't be pro business's turning "X" amount of value into "X minus billions of dollars". It is a serious waste of fossil fuel resources.

This may be the post you are looking for.  Bolding is mine.

GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3739 on: September 27, 2019, 01:49:27 AM »
philopek thinks building  new factorys to satisfy demand is a loss for a company.

Kiwi thinks a company with flat sales and declining prices needs to "satisfy demand". Econ 101 is calling.
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GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3740 on: September 27, 2019, 01:56:23 AM »
Tesla produces complete Model 3 body-in-white at Gigafactory 3, production to start Oct. 14
https://electrek.co/guides/tesla/

GSY, what was it you wanted to do when the first car leaves Gigafactory 3? :)

I have no idea what you are talking about. Seriously.  :)


If they produce cars at Giga3, it makes no difference. They already fill demand. If they didn't , they wouldn't keep lowering prices. DUH. A new factory does nothing.
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GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3741 on: September 27, 2019, 02:01:00 AM »
TSLA is the new ZERO.

The only chance the equity has is some form of a bailout, whether public or private. There is no chance the company Tesla, without restructure, ever makes an annual profit.

If Tesla makes an annual profit (or if any other Musk company ever does, [currently about 0/50 ]) I will quit posting.


FYI, if you think you are pro green stuff, you shouldn't be pro business's turning "X" amount of value into "X minus billions of dollars". It is a serious waste of fossil fuel resources.

This may be the post you are looking for.  Bolding is mine.

Totally. If Tesla makes an annual profit, then I have been wrong about everything.

And if Elon colonizes Mars I'll shut up about SpaceX.

And if my Koi puts on a fireworks show in his tank, I was wrong about physics.

But you know, there really is no chance of any of this nonsense.

I do appreciate that yall took the time to go through my posts and try to find some sorta promise that I have violated. It is quite flattering. Sorry it didn't work out.
big time oops

Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3742 on: September 27, 2019, 02:03:05 AM »
TSLA is the new ZERO.

The only chance the equity has is some form of a bailout, whether public or private. There is no chance the company Tesla, without restructure, ever makes an annual profit.

If Tesla makes an annual profit (or if any other Musk company ever does, [currently about 0/50 ]) I will quit posting.


FYI, if you think you are pro green stuff, you shouldn't be pro business's turning "X" amount of value into "X minus billions of dollars". It is a serious waste of fossil fuel resources.

This may be the post you are looking for.  Bolding is mine.

OK then:

SpaceX President Gwynne Shotwell says company is profitable
May 22, 2018
Quote
SpaceX President Gwynne Shotwell said Tuesday that the privately held Hawthorne space company is valued at almost $28 billion based on recent funding rounds, and that it is profitable.

In a wide-ranging interview broadcast on CNBC, Shotwell said the company has had “many years” of profitability. She admitted 2016 — when a Falcon 9 rocket exploded on a Florida launch pad, destroying a commercial communications satellite it was set to launch — was “tough,” though she stopped short of saying the company lost money then.
https://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-spacex-shotwell-20180522-story.html

——
To (sort of) tie this back to the thread topic: SpaceX is using Tesla battery packs in its prototype Starship.

SpaceX’s Starship Mk1 rocket shares a surprising connection with Tesla EVs
https://www.teslarati.com/spacex-starship-tesla-battery-packs-spotted/
« Last Edit: September 27, 2019, 02:10:02 AM by Sigmetnow »
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GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3743 on: September 27, 2019, 02:09:21 AM »
GSY’s claim that Tesla “has never been profitable” is of course a lie, since the company showed a profit in Q3 2016, and Q3 and Q4 2018.

And the US Federal Gov sometimes has a monthly surplus during Septembers.

The fact that you call me out saying that Tesla has never been profitable, and even call it a lie, shows that you are a total joke.

(If I had said that Tesla had never had a profitable quarter, that would be a lie. But that isn't what I said.)
big time oops

GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3744 on: September 27, 2019, 02:13:38 AM »
OK then:

SpaceX President Gwynne Shotwell says company is profitable
May 22, 2018

90%+ of what you say is wrong. It really is impressive consistency.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4221888-spacex-profitable

"So SpaceX did not make a profit by any conventional definition. Customer prepayments can be included in earnings statements, but they are essentially a pull-forward action. By recognizing earnings for future actions, SpaceX is giving the illusion of operating profit on a continuing basis."
big time oops

Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3745 on: September 27, 2019, 02:14:07 AM »
GSY’s claim that Tesla “has never been profitable” is of course a lie, since the company showed a profit in Q3 2016, and Q3 and Q4 2018.

And the US Federal Gov sometimes has a monthly surplus during Septembers.

The fact that you call me out saying that Tesla has never been profitable, and even call it a lie, shows that you are a total joke.

(If I had said that Tesla had never had a profitable quarter, that would be a lie. But that isn't what I said.)

“Profit” does not mean “annual profit.” 

Quote
What Is Profit?
Profit is a financial benefit that is realized when the amount of revenue gained from a business activity exceeds the expenses, costs, and taxes needed to sustain the activity. Any profit that is gained goes to the business's owners, who may or may not decide to spend it on the business. Profit is calculated as total revenue less total expenses.
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/profit.asp
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3746 on: September 27, 2019, 02:32:05 AM »
GSY,

If Musk is a liar as you claim, and if your graphs actually do prove that things are terrible, horrible, very bad for Tesla right now, then certainly they cannot post a profit for Q3 2019.

What will you do in repentance if Tesla posts a profit for Q3 2019?
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GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3747 on: September 27, 2019, 03:40:39 AM »
GSY’s claim that Tesla “has never been profitable” is of course a lie, since the company showed a profit in Q3 2016, and Q3 and Q4 2018.

And the US Federal Gov sometimes has a monthly surplus during Septembers.

The fact that you call me out saying that Tesla has never been profitable, and even call it a lie, shows that you are a total joke.

(If I had said that Tesla had never had a profitable quarter, that would be a lie. But that isn't what I said.)

“Profit” does not mean “annual profit.” 

Quote
What Is Profit?
Profit is a financial benefit that is realized when the amount of revenue gained from a business activity exceeds the expenses, costs, and taxes needed to sustain the activity. Any profit that is gained goes to the business's owners, who may or may not decide to spend it on the business. Profit is calculated as total revenue less total expenses.
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/profit.asp

lol. What you are implying with this definition is that any company that has ever sold a single item for more than it cost them is profitable. That is incredibly stupid.

When serious people ask if a company is profitable, the real crux is if the company in general makes or loses money.

If you actually think that Tesla is "profitable" you are totally clueless.
big time oops

GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3748 on: September 27, 2019, 03:54:15 AM »
GSY,

If Musk is a liar as you claim, and if your graphs actually do prove that things are terrible, horrible, very bad for Tesla right now, then certainly they cannot post a profit for Q3 2019.

What will you do in repentance if Tesla posts a profit for Q3 2019?

Repentance? WTF?!?

If they want, I'm sure they can shift cost and payments around and Q3 can be "profitable". Q4 would be as much worse as they made Q3 better. Who cares!


But if we are looking at much money Tesla is going to makelose in Q3...

So they lost about $400M in Q2. The cars are selling for about the same price and about the number are being sold. So I'd imagine the quarterly loss will be about the same.

You seem to think it will be closer to breakeven. Why?
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blumenkraft

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3749 on: September 27, 2019, 09:37:30 AM »
TSLA is the new ZERO.

The only chance the equity has is some form of a bailout, whether public or private. There is no chance the company Tesla, without restructure, ever makes an annual profit.

If Tesla makes an annual profit (or if any other Musk company ever does, [currently about 0/50 ]) I will quit posting.


FYI, if you think you are pro green stuff, you shouldn't be pro business's turning "X" amount of value into "X minus billions of dollars". It is a serious waste of fossil fuel resources.

This may be the post you are looking for.  Bolding is mine.

Ah, there is the promise to stop posting, has nothing to do with the Gigafactory though. I must have mixed that up. But really interesting what kind of bogus statements you find browsing GSYs posts. Astonishing, really!
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