Tesla glory/failure

[Sigmetnow]

OK then:

SpaceX President Gwynne Shotwell says company is profitable
May 22, 2018

90%+ of what you say is wrong. It really is impressive consistency.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4221888-spacex-profitable

"So SpaceX did not make a profit by any conventional definition. Customer prepayments can be included in earnings statements, but they are essentially a pull-forward action. By recognizing earnings for future actions, SpaceX is giving the illusion of operating profit on a continuing basis."

“Profitable” does not mean “profitable except for any stuff I make up to make it sound like it’s not profitable.” 

SpaceX is profitable.  Huge.  And you are desperate.

SpaceX Valued At $120 Billion By Morgan Stanley Due To Starlink
https://wccftech.com/spacex-morgan-stanley-120-billion/

[NeilT]

Sig, it is rarely worth arguing with GSY about the profitability or demise of Tesla.  Time is the best cure there. As I said at the end of 2018.

Reality is that Tesla has more important things to do than create artificial profits for shareholders. Shares, for Tesla, are a long term thing.  All the profit is made with the convertible bonds. Which, I note, Tesla pays off regularly with no hint of default.

Tesla has far too much going on to be focused on making shareholders happy short term.  Meanwhile the shorts are making the convertible bonds extremely profitable.  Personally I would investigate the shorts to see if they are manipulating the stock price in order to make a solid profit on the bonds.  But I have a bad mind.

Tesla, right now, is in business ramp up, new market entry and service creation. All of which points to a solid company. In fact, when Tesla starts making profits constantly, it will be around $100bn or more in sales and services and profits will be commensurate.

Hence my point about static (or declining), losses for massive increases in sales. You cannot have both.  If the fundamental manufacturing and support process is unprofitable, then the more you sell, the more you will lose. I keep pointing this out and GSY keeps on ignoring it.

Tesla, to date, is growing sales, infrastructure and world market share. What it is not growing are expansion linked losses.

Musk has just tweeted that they are going for 100k deliveries this month. There is no way that is even remotely possible if they are not currently around 95k delivered.

The insurance service is live, but the lions share of setting that up was borne in Q2; Q3 profits will not be impacted so much. It will, however, benefit from the revenue.

Bigger "Tesla is failing" killers to come in Q4,:

Giga3 manufacturing and deliveries
More FSD revenue from the V10 software
FCA EU zero emissions credits (remember those, estimated at $2bn and all profit)
Slow ramp up with energy

We were here a year ago listening to the demise of a company which was clearly completing its chrysalis from start up to fully fledged manufacturer.

We will be here next year discussing where Tesla is in the EV world, not presiding over its funeral.

[oren]

To be sure, some of the short stock positions are a hedge against positions in the convertible bonds. That's to be expected and not manipulation.

[Sigmetnow]

 
   
Smart Summon is Mindblowing

< u/itsMe_v2
I know I know, we’ve heard it a million times but seriously guys.
I just got back from testing out smart summon and it’s so insane to see your beautiful Tesla drive itself to you. Sure it’s not faster than 5MPH but honestly, that seems plenty fast when you’re not in the driver’s seat.
The added driving visualizations to the app are clever and smart, adding a sense of reassurance while your Tesla does its thing. It even tells you when it’s waiting for a pedestrian to finish crossing!
I think the cherry on top, though, is definitely the reactions you get. I had two people ask me as I was driving away if my car was driving itself and they were ecstatic when they heard me say yes. They told me how weird it was to see the car drive to me and then see me hop into the driver’s seat and drive off. I know from the two reactions alone, that it’ll be the highlight of their days and mine.
Dare I say, summon is more than a party trick now.

< MasterK999
This will push me to get a Tesla all on its own. After fighting cancer a few years ago (I am 5 years cancer free) I have mobility problems as a result of cut nerves during abdominal surgeries.
I cannot contort myself to get into a car when another car is parked close by. Even spots that most would not think are a problem can be tough. One time I even had to ask strangers passing by to please back my car out because I simply could not get in. It took three tries to find someone who took pity and did it for me.
Summon will be a real lifesaver for me. A Tesla will be my next car once I can make sure I have charging covered in my apartment.

< gorobotgorobot
That makes me very happy to hear that. What some people think is a party trick is an absolute necessity for some people. If Tesla ever does ads they should use your story.

< longaadoc
As someone who has been testing it for a while, this has been the feature that generated most “wow” expressions from onlookers and passerby. I have had couple of people who were driving somewhere else, saw the empty car drive around the parking lot and turned around and followed the car as they were so shocked by it. It’s a great conversation starter.
Almost reminds me of very early days of our Tesla and the self extending door handles. People used to get blown away by it back then. Smart Summon brings that feeling to next level. ...even with its current limitations.

< pardonmyskeff:
…What Tesla has done here is made a machine capable of deliberate navigation in a complex environment. This is one major milestone of sophistication for the self driving car.
For Smart Summon, when do you really need be outside the car and have the car moving for you? How about when you are the extra senses for the car? Is there any time that you need to back out of a space, but need to check for traffic on the street? Hard to do on your own, but Smart Summon will do that for you.

https://www.reddit.com/r/teslamotors/comments/da2m14/smart_summon_is_mindblowing/

——
NeilT,
I know. Thus my final post on the subject, noting his desperation.  Things are about to become very, very good.

[NeilT]

Oren, I don't disagree, but Tesla shorts go far beyond reason.  A while back I posted the short positions on other companies like Apple and Amazon.  Massively larger than Tesla in monetary terms, but miniscule in terms of total company stock.  Read lower single digits of the total tradeable stock.

Tesla, on the other hand, is shorted to upper 40% of the total tradeable stock.

In my mind that falls into market manipulation.

[Sigmetnow]

Q3 FUD parody!

Riku Mattila (@rmattila74) 9/27/19, 11:35 AM
The EU registration stats are a scam! A friend of mine who works at the Austro-Hungarian DMV, told me that $TSLA employees are registering all kinds of scrapped cars as new Teslas to pump the share price!

https://twitter.com/rmattila74/status/1177607723623604225

—-
Competition?  What competition?

October 2018:
VW Claims By 2020, Its Electric Cars Will Match Tesla At Half Price
https://insideevs.com/news/340682/vw-claims-by-2020-its-electric-cars-will-match-tesla-at-half-price/

John Hanna (@jjhanna2) 9/26/19, 1:46 AM
 They nailed it, except for the price, timeline, features, efficiency, range, tech, and performance.

https://twitter.com/jjhanna2/status/1177097193146261504

—-
The Model Y is an understated Trojan Horse for Tesla’s manufacturing ambitions
By Simon Alvarez.  September 25, 2019

The launch of the Tesla Model Y is, in several ways, an understated and undramatic event. There were no surprise vehicles at the end of the crossover’s presentation, nor were there any announcements about the number of pre-orders the electric car maker received for the seven-seater. Tesla has been pretty quiet about the Model Y since, too, as updates on the crossover have mostly come through insider reports and patent applications from the company.

It is through these patent applications that one could see the potential of the Model Y to revolutionize Tesla’s overall manufacturing operations. A look at two patents that are tailor-fit for the Model Y, for example, suggests that Tesla will be adopting a far more innovative production process for the vehicle compared to its past electric cars, including the mass-market Model 3 sedan, a vehicle that is essentially carrying Tesla into its current transition into a mainstream car manufacturer. With this in mind, the Model Y could even be described as a Trojan Horse of sorts, carrying the electric car maker’s innovations (mostly) under the radar. ...

https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-model-y-secrets-manufacturing-ambitions/

[oren]

Tesla, on the other hand, is shorted to upper 40% of the total tradeable stock. 

In my mind that falls into market manipulation.

There is a lot of short-side manipulation through articles, tweets etc. But the short positions themselves are not manipulation, someone did take the short and its risk. IMHO though, shorting a stock with 40% short interest is beyond crazy. The risk is enormous. Should there ever be a true short squeeze for any reason whatsoever, the losses could reach tens of billions of dollars. The Oct 2008 case of VW ordinary shares (with 12% short interest) and the Porsche takeover could pale in comparison.

[GoSouthYoungins]

Tesla, on the other hand, is shorted to upper 40% of the total tradeable stock.

In my mind that falls into market manipulation.

That is mindblowingly stupid. What do you even mean? Short interest is high, thus it the stock is being manipulated?!?

[GoSouthYoungins]

There is a lot of short-side manipulation through articles, tweets etc.

Ah yes. It should really be illegal to say true things publicly if they shed negative light on a stock. Oh the manipulation.

[Rob Dekker]

Saving weight costs money which is why it has to be force by law like all other law enforced technological hurdles that have been implemented over the last 4 decades.

EVs have re-generative braking, and thus their energy use is largely independent of their mass.

So why do you want to limit the weight of a vehicle exactly ?

If your goal was to reduce energy, imposing a speed limit would be much more effective than imposing a weight limit, as shown in the charts below.

Either way, your suggested weight limit "by law" would be only in favor of ICE vehicles and against the use of EVs, and specifically against Teslas, since they have the biggest (heaviest) batteries.

If that was your intent, then your argument makes perfect sense.

[NeilT]

That is mindblowingly stupid. What do you even mean? Short interest is high, thus it the stock is being manipulated?!?

Oren understood it and his response is quite correct. The level of short positions in Tesla is not mind-blowingly stupid, it is totally insane.  Especially as it is quite clear that Tesla is not going to fail.

Whether Tesla will be a major success or a takeover target or something else is yet to be determined.  But failure?  Not since they finally got the Model3 off the ground and transitioned from a minor premium vehicle manufacturer to a major vehicle manufacturer.

[gerontocrat]

The only time all this short /long stuff has an effect on a business is if it is looking for a cash injection either through a share issue or borrowing (lousy share price can put up interest costs).

Since Tesla is not looking for additional capital this year, it don't matter.
People who have invested for the long-term should ignore it unless they need to sell some shares.

All this bullshit has zero to do with whether Tesla will succeed or fail, but I do admit that I hope the shorties get screwed, since they are part of the failed capitalism that has degraded to mere speculation and cannot distinguish between price and value.

[philopek]

The only time all this short /long stuff has an effect on a business is if it is looking for a cash injection either through a share issue or borrowing (lousy share price can put up interest costs).

Since Tesla is not looking for additional capital this year, it don't matter.
People who have invested for the long-term should ignore it unless they need to sell some shares.

All this bullshit has zero to do with whether Tesla will succeed or fail, but I do admit that I hope the shorties get screwed, since they are part of the failed capitalism that has degraded to mere speculation and cannot distinguish between price and value.

Just a few additional thoughts in reply to your statements:

a) One can be of the opinion that Tesla will fail without being short with stock

b) Low share prices do NOT cause a fail but most often INDICATE a future fail, which is why your statement that those two have nothing to do with each other is not entirely correct. It's just a kind of reverse looking angle, at times it's even the case that dropping stocks cause a fail and not the other way arround. There is a lot of psychology involved. For example once people stop purchasing a multi-ten-thousand dollar product with a few years of life-expectancy because they are afraid to
end up without warranty services as well as spare parts, it can indeed impact the business and cause a fail very directly. There are many more examples, this is just the most obvious.

Yes the mere existence of short trading is huge flaw in the system that only serves scamsters
and it should (and will be) prohibited. It's an ethical crime, sanctioned only by the system that is
controlled by exactly those scamsters who benefit most of it.

It is bullshit but it HAS to do with the outcome, best seen once the shit hit the fan and one looks back in history to find out when and how it started, at least in cases where a fail was evitable.

[oren]

Short trading actually fixes a big flaw in the financial markets. It can prevent bubbles from forming, and protect investors from pump-and-dump. Like everything else, it has its pros and cons.

[GoSouthYoungins]

I hope the shorties get screwed, since they are part of the failed capitalism that has degraded to mere speculation and cannot distinguish between price and value.

Your statement makes no sense. What is wrong with borrowing a stock and selling it, if you have the capital to cover? There is nothing wrong with short selling. There is a lot wrong with our current version of "capitalism", but none of it has anything to do with two parties agree to take opposite sides of a bet.

Shorting helps properly allocate capital. If there is no shorting, then the market only stocks from one perspective: bet it will go up (or abstain). Add a "bet it will go down" perspective helps make pricing more accurate.

[cognitivebias2]

Hate to say it, but I agree with GSY on this one.

One issue with naked shorting, the stock is borrowed from thin air.  There is no real paper backing it up.  So its a form of derivative trading, and more inclined to be speculative.

[philopek]

In theory there would be nothing wrong with shorts if:

- They really had the capital to back it but in reality, as has been seen in the past, this is not the case

- It were proberly regulated and enforced, in the current form it opens too many doors for abuse like blackmail and many more forms of abuse.

If it is a workaround (certainly not a fix @Oren) for flaws in the system, they should fix the system and not cover the wound with a infected batch, hope it's clear what i mean.

I've been many years at the helm of various companies who work in that field and after 25 years had to put a stop to not loose self-esteem and my health entirely. I'm clearly a Paul having been a Saul.

It's a horrible business as a whole and short trading among other derivatives is one of the very worst contenders with the highest number of victims, with only very few long-term beneficiaries and a high death toll.

I'm not kidding with the latest and things I've witnessed i won't discuss any further, just saying and that's about it here.

[GoSouthYoungins]

Yall are right, but that has nothing to do with shorting. The whole system is bogus. When a bank makes a loan, they loan that money into existence. The leverage is bonkers from the birth of every fiat unit.

Longs are leveraged to high hell also. Credit is a weird thing. Especially when it is controlled by vague pseudo-government / private monopolies.

[NeilT]

Your statement makes no sense. What is wrong with borrowing a stock and selling it, if you have the capital to cover? There is nothing wrong with short selling.

Ever since the Barings collapse it has been abundantly clear that the market can be manipulated if you simply buy enough of a small sector of it and then get out before it corrects.

Given the % of Tesla tradeable shares under short, that is nothing more, nor less, than market manipulation.  By someone who intends to dump their short positions before the stock recovers.

The people who get burned are those who believe the shorts and dump stock they have paid a higher price for only to watch it recover the value.

Granted Tesla has not recovered to 2018 levels, but that is only a matter of time.

But the point here is that Tesla is forced to sell convertible bonds rather than stock, because of the constant short positions. This hinders a growing business from meeting the capital expense of that growth.

On the ++ side for Tesla, the shorts are forcing them to pay back the bonds.  Which will, in the long run, leave the company with a huge capital resource for the number of shares issued. Which will, eventually, increase Tesla shares enormously.  Unless Tesla were to do a truly massive rights issue. But that would  leave them with embarrassing amounts of money in the bank.  Enough, perhaps, to pay for Semi, pickup, Y, FSD, Ride hailing and god knows what else they can think of.

All of which will just make Tesla stock even more valuable, per unit of stock.


Short selling may be a corrective mechanism.  But, like all other mechanisms, when abused, it becomes part of the problem.

[Sigmetnow]

A few fun notes showing how Tesla is succeeding at changing the world.

Drew Schuyler (@73drewsky) 9/27/19, 5:02 PM
OMG!!!...  @elonmusk @Tesla. What did you do? #amazing #OTA #V10

https://twitter.com/73drewsky/status/1177689987963375617
Vid: Tesla autonomously backs out of garage on far side of ~4-lane driveway, and maneuvers around to reach owner on far side of driveway.

Tesla Smart Summon is life-changing for drivers with mobility problems
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-smart-summon-disabled-drivers-life-changing/

Tesla Model 3 unparks itself and drives to save family from torrential rainstorm
While stopping for cars and humans on the move.
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-smart-summon-saves-family-rainstorm/

Gabriel R. (@tesla_addicted) 9/28/19, 1:36 AM
Im glad I wasn’t the programmer otherwise I wouldn’t have bumper anymore

https://twitter.com/tesla_addicted/status/1177819368937394176
[Vid at link: Car does not try to jump the curb to go directly to him.  It goes to far end of row, stops at the stop sign, and comes down the next row.]

Earl of Frunkpuppy (@28delayslater) 9/28/19, 3:23 PM
Enhanced summon is amazing. Used it at the grocery store with my family and my wife was so excited she said “omg that’s so embarrassing why would you do that?”

https://twitter.com/28delayslater/status/1178027582111059968

Elon Musk (@elonmusk) 9/28/19, 2:28 PM
We’re going to use the pedestrian pink noise speaker to talk to people & create customized horn sounds. “I beg your pardon, but would you be so kind as to allow me to proceed?” Said in the voice of Mr. Darcy.

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1178013709546991619

When your dragon chooses you :

DirtyTesla (@DirtyTesla) 9/27/19, 10:59 PM
I just realized... With enhanced summon, Tesla employees can leave the cars in the lot, and when the customer comes, just tell the car COME TO ME and out of the sea of Teslas emerges your car! BEST DELIVERY EXPERIENCE EVER

https://twitter.com/dirtytesla/status/1177779737256747008

——
Brooklyn, NY?

Frank (@fatropea) 9/25/19, 9:53 PM
While stopped in my @Tesla Model 3 during AM commute, driver of Verizon truck behind me gets out, walks to my window and motions to roll down:
Me: (thinking) Are my real wheels falling off?
Driver: “Hey, I just have to tell you - I *Love* this car!”
Thanked him & shook hands.

https://twitter.com/fatropea/status/1177038338190192640

[GoSouthYoungins]

"Smart Summon" appears to be incredibly inept. The only situation it can work in is one without any complexity....like an empty parking lot.

The real story though is how it proves FSD to be FAR FAR AWAY. You know "3 months maybe, 6 months definitely".

[TerryM]

After watching more than a few videos I've got to say that if a 90 yr. old neighbor drove that way I'd contact the authorities to have his license revoked.
Terry

[Archimid]

Remember when AP first came out how it barely kept lines but now you can travel hours without disengagement, Smart summon will likely improve faster than lane keeping.

[Hefaistos]

"Smart Summon" appears to be incredibly inept. The only situation it can work in is one without any complexity....like an empty parking lot.

The real story though is how it proves FSD to be FAR FAR AWAY. You know "3 months maybe, 6 months definitely".

In a shorter's world, all that is "+", must change sign.

[Sigmetnow]

Schwarzenegger arranged for Thunberg to have a Tesla Model 3 at her disposal as she made her way from the United States to a climate rally in Montreal, ensuring that she could get around in as environmentally friendly a way as possible.

Arnold Schwarzenegger Sent Greta Thunberg an Electric Car
https://www.menshealth.com/entertainment/amp29279061/arnold-schwarzenegger-greta-thunberg-tesla/

[NeilT]

"Smart Summon" appears to be incredibly inept. The only situation it can work in is one without any complexity....like an empty parking lot.

The real story though is how it proves FSD to be FAR FAR AWAY. You know "3 months maybe, 6 months definitely".

In a shorter's world, all that is "+", must change sign.

My comment was going to be slightly different. Smart summon, just like FSD, is all about data and data interpretation.

Now if a Tesla were a traditional car this feature would be a real issue.  Because you would have to buy a new car to get a better version. With Tesla, the initial data from testing is going to be augmented 1,000 times in a few short months.  This will be fed back into the software and updated to vehicles at frequent intervals.

Smart summon being 3-6 months away from maturity is radically different from, for instance, Nuclear Fusion; which has been 10 years away for the last 4 decades.

I know I have said this before but people really need to understand the difference between a Tesla and other cars.

I bought my Alienware Laptop 8 years ago.  I bought it specifically because it was very powerful and very configurable.  Today, 8 years later, it is faster, has more storage and gives me a far better experience than when I bought it.  This is not the normal experience with Laptops, where components are soldered onto the board and little can be changed.  Everything ages and gets worse in user experience.

A tesla is like the desktop PC of the Car world.  Most other manufacturers are like cheap Chinese mobiles where you need to buy a new one because the browser is out of date and you can't upgrade the OS to get a newer one.

Tesla is changing what customers expect of a car.  Blurring the boundaries between the technology world and the old mechanical engineering world.

The Tesla you buy today will be far more capable, 8 years from now, when you finally change it for something else, than it was when you bought it.

That is worth spending 5 minutes to think about.

[NeilT]

After watching more than a few videos I've got to say that if a 90 yr. old neighbor drove that way I'd contact the authorities to have his license revoked.
Terry

Narrow minded thinking Terry.  How many 90 year olds have instantaneous reactions and advanced collision avoidance?

Even then, as has been said, this is V1. 0 software.  It will improve, Rapidly.

The risk here is not the Tesla.  It is others backing out into it or shopper's crashing their shopping cart into it.

Every Waymo accident ever recorded was the fault of a human, at the wheel of another vehicle, doing something they should not have.  Or not doing something they should, like braking...

[Sigmetnow]

100+ Tesla Drivers In Taiwan Drive In Unison On Autopilot — New World Record

A Tesla owners meetup in Taiwan wound up making the local news. The day started with a fun yet cryptic tweet from the Tesla Owners Club of Taiwan.
A total of one hundred Tesla owners took part in this meetup, while all driving on Autopilot. That set a new world record. The previous world record was 55.
According to their Facebook page, the goal was a Super Long Autopilot Dragon event and to challenge the world record. This was their way of announcing the unity of Taiwan’s friendship with the Tesla community to the whole world. Not only did they meet their goal, but they did something phenomenal. They managed to land Tesla in the news in a positive way!

https://cleantechnica.com/2019/09/29/100-tesla-drivers-in-taiwan-drive-in-unison-on-autopilot-new-world-record/

Vincent (@vincent13031925) 9/29/19, 2:41 PM
Video from Taiwan mainstream TV channel TVBS:
TOC Taiwan @TeslaOwnersTwn organized 100 Tesla cars driving all together with Autopilot, and the previous world record was 55.

https://twitter.com/vincent13031925/status/1178379302699560960
90-second video from Chinese TV at the link.

=======

Vincent (@vincent13031925) 9/29/19, 8:54 PM
Only two kind of cars in the market
1. Tesla
2. Non-Tesla

https://twitter.com/vincent13031925/status/1178473278697922561

—-  More Summon Videos:

Teslatunity (@Teslatunity) 9/29/19, 12:12 PM
#SmartSummon is so confident even around a curve!!

https://twitter.com/teslatunity/status/1178341685266399233
Video: Tesla on Summon, moving rather quickly, in an empty parking lot

Steve Jobs Ghost (@tesla_truth) 9/29/19, 6:14 AM
OMG so unsafe ban it before I lose more money on my Tesla short position (sarcasm)

https://twitter.com/tesla_truth/status/1178251680506232832
25 seconds:  guy keeps running in front of the Summoning Tesla to see if it will stop.

Joseph Schager (@JosephSchager) 9/28/19, 1:04 PM
#Tesla #Model3 driverless thru @Costco parking lot madness thanks to #SmartSummon v10.0 
@elonmusk was right about parking lots being hard but still nailed it!

https://twitter.com/josephschager/status/1177992581977911296
2-minute vid. (43k+ views!)

vandyish (@vandyish) 9/28/19, 3:55 PM
Tesla M3 Smart Summon in parking lot. Good samaritan runs after car saying “Nobody’s inside!!” He’s not wrong! 

https://twitter.com/vandyish/status/1178035594749808640
< The most interesting thing here to me is just how accepting of the fact it's driving itself he is. You say "it's ok" and he's like "yep... I'll just carry on my day, nothing remarkable to see here..."

—-
“green” is a hacker who regularly examines the software in his Tesla....

green (@greentheonly) 9/29/19, 10:02 PM
Spent ~15 minutes playing with "Smart" summon.
Well, it's somewhat more dumb than I expected, but it's also less dangerous that one can surmise from those videos floating around.
GPS seem to be a bit of a problem, in my driveway car thought it's in garage when it was outside
https://twitter.com/greentheonly/status/1178490331735711744
VA: Thanks for sharing your experience and insight. Now that orders of magnitude more people are using Smart Summon, do you expect it to improve at a quicker pace?
g: It does not matter how many people are using the feature now, the bottleneck is still the programmer(s) that are implementing it.
Do you seriously think anything totally unexpected is present in all those examples being published? …
VA: On second part: I feel that just because something is expected doesn’t mean that it is not a major leap forward.
For example, this is the first time Tesla allowed its cars to be operated without a driver in a complex environment with many potential edge cases like a parking lot.
g: Not allowing cars to operate without the driver, though. The driver just was allowed to exit the car and do it from the outside. It's not so much as a true remote control, but the onus is still on the driver to supervise the car and stop it if necessary.
< A very binary control though.
    IF PRESSED_STATE == 1 THEN tesla.summon.doYourThing()
    ELSE tesla.summon.abort()
g: It's a bit more than that. You get to evaluate the proposed path on the phone first.
In any case no matter how limited the control appears, the car would not move if you tell it to stop (latency issues aside)

[Sigmetnow]

Well, they have tweeted, anyway.

The People Have Spoken: Tesla Model S Is The US' New Dream Car

The [finding] is based on geotagged twitter data over the past three months (July to now) tracking mentions of "dream car" and #dreamcar, and the vehicle most associated with that term by state (over 100,000 tweets tracked).
While you would initially think cars like a Lamborghini or Ferrari would be on top, that isn't the case at all. Six vehicles dominated the conversation... but one stood out far from the rest... the Tesla Model S.
The Model S was the top "dream car" for American drivers in 20 states, followed by the Ford Mustang with 13 states.

https://insideevs.com/news/373374/tesla-model-s-dream-car/amp/

—-
Tesla gets exposure for free on a popular Norway TV series, “The Farm”

“The choice fell on Tesla because we believe this is a symbol of the modern age and modern means of emergence. To get the look we wanted, we needed five completely identical cars, and we wanted white cars for aesthetic reasons. Tesla could help us with this well in advance of the recording,”
…
Fortunately for Tesla, the company did not spend anything at all for the ad spot. Tesla communications manager Even Sandvold Roland remarked that “From time to time, we lend cars to TV and film productions. It’s nothing more mysterious than that.”  While addressing an inquiry if Tesla paid to have its electric vehicles featured on the show, the manager was very clear.
“We do not pay for advertising anywhere in the world, it is our global policy. What I can say is that the production company would use these cars because they thought it was relevant to the series. We just lent the cars without paying for it,” Roland said.

https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-free-advertising-the-farm-norway/

—-
Shockingly positive article for the German-owned Business Insider.
In 10 years, Tesla has gone from a one-car company to being compared with Porsche — here's why that's incredible
https://amp.businessinsider.com/tesla-timeline-from-a-one-car-company-to-porsche-rival-2019-9

—-
Australia, Sept 30
My Tesla Model 3 got home-delivered, like the supercar that it is
https://techau.com.au/my-tesla-model-3-got-home-delivered-like-the-supercar-that-it-is/

—-
Tesla’s liquid-cooled charging connector patent paves way for the Semi’s Megachargers

Tesla notes that its liquid-cooled supercharger connector does not only allow faster charging; it also makes the routing of wires in a charging connector much more efficient. This means that Tesla’s Supercharger connectors could eventually be smaller and more compact despite being capable of greater output. An example of this appears to be hinted at by Supercharger V3’s liquid-cooled cables, which are smaller and more compact than those used in Tesla’s V2 Network.

https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-semi-megacharger-liquid-cooled-connector-patent/

——

Vincent (@vincent13031925) 9/29/19, 1:50 PM
A high light picture of the recent Tesla Shanghai Gigafactory GF3’s drone vid

https://twitter.com/vincent13031925/status/1178366351724822528
Image below.

[Sigmetnow]

Steve Jobs Ghost (@tesla_truth) 9/28/19, 1:35 PM
@elonmusk option for remote hazard lights on when using smart summon? hear people asking for this to help make people more aware when then there is no driver
or maybe a special light pattern separate from hazard?
EM: Makes sense

Elon Musk (@elonmusk) 9/28/19, 2:23 PM
@tesla_truth Special light pattern (but not hazards, as they’re too shrill) seems right
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1178012340383621120

< In need of a summon mode with a display, "keep calm, my owner is calling for me"

[Archimid]

What about this use case of Smart Summon:

Tesla Smart Summon V10 Parking Lot

[blumenkraft]

Elon Musk broke US labor laws on Twitter

An administrative judge says Tesla tried to sabotage efforts to unionize factory workers in California.

Link >> https://www.vox.com/identities/2019/9/30/20891314/elon-musk-tesla-labor-violation-nlrb

[GoSouthYoungins]

What about this use case of Smart Summon:

Dumb Summon.

Takes a minute to replace 10 seconds of walking.

Only works with stationary cars in a mostly empty lot.

Years after FSD was promised, this summon feature shows Tesla is light years from true autonomy.

[GoSouthYoungins]

Every Waymo accident ever recorded was the fault of a human, at the wheel of another vehicle, doing something they should not have.  Or not doing something they should, like braking...

Ya, cuz Waymo is the real deal.

Tesla meanwhile is a total joke. Teslas crash all the time with their self driving being at fault. Watch a Waymo drive and it looks like a very caution yet competent human driving. Watch a Tesla drive and it looks like a very caution totally incompetent human driving.

[NeilT]

Tesla has incorporated a construction company in China.

https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN1WG4EX

Which means the current factory is only a start.

[NeilT]

Elon Musk broke US labor laws on Twitter

Indeed.  However, if anyone thinks that unionising Tesla will increase their investment in the US, they had better think again.

China is bending over backwards to facilitate Tesla. Japan has a trade deal with the EU, that removes taxes from vehicles. So is a potential prospect.

The US? They want to control Tesla and make it conform.

We might view the cancelling of investment in Reno in a slightly different light.  Especially if a Shanghai battery shop goes into huge production.

Musk is not one to take this lying down and the decision does nothing to support Tesla profits.  Given that they are still loss making.

It might be useful to watch developments evolve now.  Will Fremont get the proposed capacity upgrade? Or will it go to Shanghai and the vehicles ship from there?

Lot to think on.

[gerontocrat]

Elon Musk broke US labor laws on Twitter

An administrative judge says Tesla tried to sabotage efforts to unionize factory workers in California.

Quote from the link..
"These are known as unfair labor practices. And what is the financial penalty for this? There isn’t one."

If Musk / Tesla don't back off a bit, it could eventually get serious. If they have any sense they will back off.  Will a large percentage of the workers want to join a Union? If yes, it will buck the trend of recent years of loss of union power and influence.

Maybe the end result of GM's fight with the United Auto Workers Union will be a deciding factor. (Biggest union strike since 2007) https://edition.cnn.com/2019/09/29/business/uaw-gm-strike-2-weeks/index.html

[vox_mundi]

Bugs: A Self-Driving Car’s Worst Nightmare
https://www.popularmechanics.com/cars/car-technology/a29309664/bugs-self-driving-cars/

Among all the obstacles facing self driving cars—from inclement weather to shaky public acceptance—there’s another few of us anticipated: Bugs. ... The mess on the windshield is a minor annoyance, but when a bug obscures the LIDAR sensor on an autonomous vehicle, it’s a much more serious situation.

... Ford’s team started by taking a preventative approach. If they could keep bugs (or dust, or snow) from hitting the sensor lens, there would be no problem. Engineers recognized they could alter an insect’s flight path with high-velocity air nozzles. The resulting “air shield” consists of a single nozzle residing on one side of the tiara, which blows air at a 35 to 40 degree angle across the LIDAR lens, pushing insects away.

“As the object comes straight on at the lens [the air shield] deflects it off to the side,” Bosca explains.

The bugs only need to make a slight course correction. Smears on non-sensor areas of the tiara are like bug debris on your hood, aesthetically unpleasing but not harmful. A tiny blower similar to that in your car’s HVAC system compresses the air from an intake elsewhere on the tiara. The air shield blower is always running though it varies speed according to the AV’s speed and environmental conditions. It can also be used to cool the LIDAR and other sensors.

[Sigmetnow]

China Giga 3 coming on-line soon.

Vincent (@vincent13031925) 10/1/19, 3:44 PM
! ! Important Update ! !
Chinese social media:
“All Tesla Model 3 Standard Range will not accept order after Oct 13th, this will be the last shipment of the Made in US Model 3, plz have ur test drive be4 Oct 7th and lock-in ur orders”
Made in China #Model3 is coming.
https://twitter.com/vincent13031925/status/1179120039024189440
[Text image in Chinese at the link.]
- announcement from Tesla China sales in Chinese social media

[Sigmetnow]

   Embargoed article?  Or an “assume the best” draft, ready just in case?

Luke Silbey (@LukeSilbey) 10/1/19, 5:24 PM
Umm.. is anyone else seeing this @Tesla news template that’s published on yahoo finance right now?

https://twitter.com/lukesilbey/status/1179145016192700419
Image below; lots more in the thread.

[Tor Bejnar]

XXXX - that's 40 vehicles delivered.  So much for the loftier 100,000 (I think it was) goal.   

Also, nice to read about the 'bug repellent' for LIDAR.  However, Tesla'a are LIDAR-free, so, I guess, they could squirt air over camera lenses.

[Sigmetnow]

2019 YTD Sales — U.S. 

Hyundai Ioniq: 281
Hyundai Kona: 577
VW e-Golf: 3,042
Nissan Leaf Plus: 9,111
Chevy Bolt: 9,266
Tesla Model 3: 114,500

https://insideevs.com/news/373812/ev-sales-scorecard-september-2019/

[Sigmetnow]

XXXX - that's 40 vehicles delivered.  So much for the loftier 100,000 (I think it was) goal.   

So close.... 

Also, nice to read about the 'bug repellent' for LIDAR.  However, Tesla'a are LIDAR-free, so, I guess, they could squirt air over camera lenses.

The three main forward cameras in a Tesla are inside, behind the front windshield, so.... 

Part of the redundancy in the Tesla system is the ability to continue functioning even without a camera or two, IIRC.

[TerryM]

^^
I was concerned about inside cameras, Canadian winters, and frost, but on reflection I doubt any manufacturer is going to try autonomous driving when the roads (and lane markings) are obscured by snow and ice.
When I was a kid someone missed our street in a white-out and for weeks all of the traffic ran across our front lawn instead of the road which was ~30 feet to the south. Things are warmer now, but the occasional blizzard still gets through.
Robo-Cabs are going to need to wait until the storm has passed and the streets are bare.
Terry

[gerontocrat]

^^
I was concerned about inside cameras, Canadian winters, and frost, but on reflection I doubt any manufacturer is going to try autonomous driving when the roads (and lane markings) are obscured by snow and ice.

Terry

There will be plenty of drivers who are dumb enough to switch on the autopilot because the conditions are so bad.

Boinggggg.

[Sigmetnow]

^^
I was concerned about inside cameras, Canadian winters, and frost, but on reflection I doubt any manufacturer is going to try autonomous driving when the roads (and lane markings) are obscured by snow and ice.

Terry

There will be plenty of drivers who are dumb enough to switch on the autopilot because the conditions are so bad.

Boinggggg.

They may try.  But the display will inform them that Autopilot is not available due to weather conditions.  That happens today.

[Sigmetnow]

Tesla delivery estimates from China, Netherlands, hints at record-setting Q3 2019
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-tsla-china-netherlands-q3-2019-model-3-results/

—-
Tesla Model 3 electric vehicle smashes sales records, recasts Australia car market

The burst of activity that saw even Tesla chair Robyn Denholm helping out with Model 3 deliveries in Sydney last week meant that more than 200 of the electric vehicles were delivered a day in the last few days of the month.

https://thedriven.io/2019/10/01/tesla-model-3-electric-vehicle-smashes-sales-records-recasts-australia-car-market/

——

#friendsdontletfriendsbuyICE (@whitfletcher) 10/1/19, 2:22 PM
Pier 80 SFO. Pic 1 yesterday, pic 2 today. These guys can fill it up when they decide to. Arrivals continue. Strong mix RH/LH observed. Q4 off to a good start. pic.twitter.com/
https://twitter.com/whitfletcher/status/1179099340003926016
BTW- only model 3 seen so far, typically 80 percent.

Photos at the link.

[gerontocrat]

TESLA #3
Netherlands - No #1, 5,678 in Sept, 4 x August, 13,991 for the year to date. Guess that market will settle down to a sustainable figure soon

Norway down, but still No #1, Qu3 3,300, Qu2 4,438, Q1 6,123. 3,000 a month sustainable?


https://europe.autonews.com/automakers/tesla-model-3-passes-vw-polo-no-1-seller-dutch-market

[gerontocrat]

When we get the next load of DOOM BANKRUPTCY from gsy, here is some context.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-10-01/toyota-typifies-ugly-month-with-16-slide-auto-sales-update
Grim Start to U.S. Auto Sales Stirs Alarm That Collapse Is Here
- Toyota, Honda, Nissan suffer double-digit drops in September
- Outgoing model-year vehicles still hard to move on dealer lots

Results were disastrous for leading Asian automakers Toyota Motor Corp. and Honda Motor Co., which both suffered double-digit declines that were worse than analysts anticipated. While a fuller picture will emerge Wednesday when General Motors Co. and Ford Motor Co. are due to report, the poor performance suggests that overall deliveries of cars and light trucks could come in worse than the 12% drop anticipated by analysts, based on six estimates.

The severity of the slide stokes fears that a long-anticipated car sales collapse may be arriving. The slowdown puts auto dealers already struggling with shrinking profit margins in an even more precarious position. With outgoing model-year vehicles clogging their lots, automakers had to pony up record incentives of more than $4,100 a vehicle in the third quarter, according to researchers at J.D. Power and LMC Automotive.

[Sigmetnow]

Given the ongoing UAW strike, US carmakers will also see a sales slump.  Except for Tesla.

GM Idles a Pickup-Truck Plant in Mexico Amid U.S. Strike
Truck factory makes company’s most-profitable vehicles
Oct. 1, 2019

General Motors Co. GM -3.66% said a parts shortage stemming from a United Auto Workers strike in the U.S. led it to idle a pickup-truck factory in Mexico, cutting off the supply of GM’s most-profitable vehicles and further threatening to dent its bottom line.

The auto maker closed the facilities because parts shipments from the U.S., where factory workers remain on strike, have dried up, he said. ...

https://www.wsj.com/articles/gm-is-forced-to-idle-a-pickup-truck-plant-in-mexico-amid-u-s-strike-11569953624