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GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3800 on: October 02, 2019, 04:21:04 PM »
When we get the next load of DOOM BANKRUPTCY from gsy, here is some context.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-10-01/toyota-typifies-ugly-month-with-16-slide-auto-sales-update
Grim Start to U.S. Auto Sales Stirs Alarm That Collapse Is Here
- Toyota, Honda, Nissan suffer double-digit drops in September

Hey gerontocrap, I have never said anything like, "OMG the sales from Tesla aren't big enough, so they are totally going bankrupt."

Tesla is going BK because they lose money and will never make money and that dynamic is baked into their design (as it is will all Musk companies).

Toyota, Honda, and Nissan had net incomes in 2018 of $2.4T, $1T, and $750B. Comparing Tesla to them is retarded. Tesla has never had a year with any net income, and they never will.


Yes, the global business cycle is turning down. The auto sector will see some of the biggest swings. It will be bad for every auto related company. If a company was making a trillion fucking dollars a year before, they wont make as much. If a company was already losing money, they are BK.
big time oops

Tor Bejnar

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3801 on: October 02, 2019, 09:42:27 PM »
^^
I was concerned about inside cameras, Canadian winters, and frost, but on reflection I doubt any manufacturer is going to try autonomous driving when the roads (and lane markings) are obscured by snow and ice.
...
A ways up thread was a video of a Tesla driving through a section of road (1/2 km? 1 km?) that had recently been repaved and had no road markings.  The car, on autopilot, navigated just fine, even when there was a side road that veered off to the right (and in North America, that's the easy exit).  It always kept a proper distance from the right edge of the intended road way (even when the actual paved edge veered off to the right).

As a teen my dad, brother and I  regularly travelled a rural (N-S) road across the western Great Plains.  This road would get drifts over it during the snowier parts of winter, given the ubiquitous winds out of the west.  One year the snow drifted deep and hard, with cars subsequently (for weeks) unwittingly driving up to 2 meters above the tarmac surface.  Spring came and somebody's car broke through, right where the road was.

I think autopilot will know where the road is, generally, and won't need the things we find so useful, like painted lines and grass verges.
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TerryM

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3802 on: October 02, 2019, 10:39:05 PM »
Tor
The last time I was on Vancouver Island my GPS insisted I was plowing through the seas ~ 100 yards west of the shore line.
I relied on lane markings to make my destination.


We used to place hand held GPS units on top of rocks, set the tracking option, then see how far they traveled, and at what speed. ;)


Robo-Cabs will be grounded during White-Outs in an effort to err on the side of safety.
Terry

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3803 on: October 02, 2019, 11:37:10 PM »
My GPS once insisted that the restaurant I was supposed to meet someone at was in a vacant field.
Damn near had an accident trying to get back on the highway.
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crandles

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3804 on: October 02, 2019, 11:46:40 PM »
https://ir.tesla.com/news-releases/news-release-details/tesla-q3-2019-vehicle-production-deliveries

Quote
PALO ALTO, Calif., Oct. 02, 2019 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- In the third quarter, we achieved record production of 96,155 vehicles and record deliveries of approximately 97,000 vehicles.

                           
    Production   Deliveries   Subject to lease accounting
Model S/X   16,318   17,400   15   %
Model 3   79,837   79,600   8   %
Total   96,155   97,000   

97000 vs 95200 no significant increase on Q2 deliveries. Share price has fallen to $233 from $243 at close.


Summary of previous quarters for comparison:

Production
Qtr_____Model 3__S/X___Total
Q2 2018 28,578 24,761 53,339
Q3 2018 53,239 26,903 80,142 
Q4 2018 61,394 25,161 86,555
Q1 2019 62,950 14,150 77,100
Q2 2019 72,531 14,517 87,048
Q3 2019 79,837 16,318 96,155

Deliveries
Qtr_____Model 3__S/X___Total
Q2 2018 18,440 22,300 40,740
Q3 2018 55,840 27,660 83,500
Q4 2018 63,150 27,550 90,700
Q1 2019 50,900 12,100 63,000
Q2 2019 77,550 17,650 95,200 95,356
Q3 2019 79,600 17,400 97,000
« Last Edit: October 03, 2019, 02:29:18 PM by crandles »

NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3805 on: October 03, 2019, 11:08:14 AM »
It is pretty clear that they are relying on Shanghai to hit the guidance numbers for the year.

I'm much more interested in P&L.
I
Also Tesla opened up several new M3 markets in Q2, including the UK. We have seen, for over a year now, that it takes 1-2Q in a new market for Tesla to stabilise deliveries at a volume.

The UK market is more important to Tesla than you might think.

Firstly Brand loyalty is minimal.  People in the UK are well aware that none of the volume vehicles in the UK are British owned. Reducing brand loyalty even more.

Secondly, the UK is the 5th largest economy in the world.

Thirdly the EV penetration into the UK is minimal.  Meaning there are significant opportunities.

It will be fun to watch the numbers ramp up.

Just finally, in Norway, there are around 150k vehicles sold per year.  In the UK, the average March registrations are over 450k.  August is very low, usually under 100k, but still 3/4 of the entire Norway annual vehicle sales.

Sadly Tesla didn't do themselves any favors by entering the UK market so late this year because the UK sells around 350k cars in September.

This flux is due to our registration plate year changes in March and September.

It will, however, largely impact Q1 2020 figures if Tesla is organised enough.

Still only seeing stabilisation and growth, not failure.  P&L will tell a lot more.
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oren

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3806 on: October 03, 2019, 01:17:37 PM »
To hit annual guidance of 360k-400k, Q4 should have 105k-155k deliveries. Not going to be easy, but seemingly possible.

crandles

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3807 on: October 03, 2019, 03:19:44 PM »
To hit annual guidance of 360k-400k, Q4 should have 105k-155k deliveries. Not going to be easy, but seemingly possible.

I think you mean 105k-145k deliveries.  ;)

.

Some sales were held up by new ports delivery issues which meant sales slipped from Q1 to Q2. Therefore perhaps Q3 slight increase in deliveries on Q2 97k vs 95.2k is more impressive than it appears because Q3 did not benefit from this.

Perhaps it is better to look as M3 production numbers which increased from 72.5k to nearly 80k! A 10% increase in production rate shows significant ongoing improvements, which I doubt are finished. The ramp up should be expected to slow down as M3 production becomes more mature, but there is likely to be more gains to come.

Another 7.5k improvement in production rate at already operating factories could almost get to the 360k guidance for year without any from Shanghai. Top half of range looks pretty near impossible. Lower half should be reached provided production at Giga 3 starts in more than token quantities.

To reach 500k rate at end of year, they may only need Shanghai to reach 1.7k per week by the end of the year (assumes find extra 7k M3 production rate increase by end of year from average of Q3).

While the above might give a more positive feeling to the numbers, note that it doesn't improve the Q2 loss which at $408m was still substantial. (Well not much: 97,000 vs 95,356 is a 1.7% increase in delivery numbers could amount to $16m extra gross profit if prices and margins maintained but if margins continue to slide then that could easily be more than wiped out.)

Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3808 on: October 03, 2019, 03:55:53 PM »
^^
I was concerned about inside cameras, Canadian winters, and frost, but on reflection I doubt any manufacturer is going to try autonomous driving when the roads (and lane markings) are obscured by snow and ice.
...
A ways up thread was a video of a Tesla driving through a section of road (1/2 km? 1 km?) that had recently been repaved and had no road markings.  The car, on autopilot, navigated just fine, even when there was a side road that veered off to the right (and in North America, that's the easy exit).  It always kept a proper distance from the right edge of the intended road way (even when the actual paved edge veered off to the right).

As a teen my dad, brother and I  regularly travelled a rural (N-S) road across the western Great Plains.  This road would get drifts over it during the snowier parts of winter, given the ubiquitous winds out of the west.  One year the snow drifted deep and hard, with cars subsequently (for weeks) unwittingly driving up to 2 meters above the tarmac surface.  Spring came and somebody's car broke through, right where the road was.

I think autopilot will know where the road is, generally, and won't need the things we find so useful, like painted lines and grass verges.

Tesla has patented a method to use its cars’ sensors to make GPS positioning more accurate:
https://electrek.co/2018/12/09/tesla-patent-technology-accurate-gps-positioning-for-self-driving-vehicles/

Also, its vehicles are continually sending route-position data to the “Mother Ship.”  So if you are driving a road (or parking lot!) that other Teslas have driven on, it has a good idea where the lane is. 
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3809 on: October 03, 2019, 04:03:57 PM »
China just issued Tesla a $700 million (USD) unsecured credit card.

Quote
Vincent (@vincent13031925) 10/2/19, 5:55 PM
Tesla Beijing Entered Agreement With China Merchants Bank Co. for Unsecured 12-Month Revolving Facility of Up to RMB 5 Billion
https://twitter.com/vincent13031925/status/1179515188111822848
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3810 on: October 03, 2019, 04:15:25 PM »
Since NOBODY seems like giving the Q3 delivery numbers a genuine look, I will.

-Sales up a little. Plus $15M.

-Mix of vehicles indicates lower margins. Minus $5M.

-More leases. Minus $10M.

-Bogus FSD revenue recognized due to "smart summon" BS. Plus $50M.

-Continually reduced Capex. Plus $30M.

So Tesla will probably report something like a $300M loss in Q3.


If you are actually paying attention and not just a Muskian Culttard, it is worth noting that Tesla is "selling" cars to Tesla Bejing, who are being loaned the money from a Chinese firm. (In other words, there are probably over 10,000 Tesla sitting in lots around the country that are owned by China and are "in-transit".)

https://ir.tesla.com/node/20186/html

And no sig, this isn't an unsecured credit card.
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GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3811 on: October 03, 2019, 04:17:26 PM »
China just issued Tesla a $700 million (USD) unsecured credit card.

Each drawdown under the China In-Transit Financing Facility is subject to certain conditions precedent, including reporting requirements with respect to the vehicles purchased and imported by Tesla Beijing and certain cash deposit requirements.

Outstanding borrowings pursuant to the China In-Transit Financing Facility will accrue interest at a variable rate no greater than 90% of the one-year rate published by the People’s Bank of China. Tesla Beijing is subject to certain customary covenants and events of default.


Get a clue buddy.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3812 on: October 03, 2019, 04:21:21 PM »
When we get the next load of DOOM BANKRUPTCY from gsy, here is some context.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-10-01/toyota-typifies-ugly-month-with-16-slide-auto-sales-update
Grim Start to U.S. Auto Sales Stirs Alarm That Collapse Is Here
- Toyota, Honda, Nissan suffer double-digit drops in September

Hey gerontocrap, I have never said anything like, "OMG the sales from Tesla aren't big enough, so they are totally going bankrupt."
I remember a post - a month ago ? - "Autoshrink" which by looking at US auto sales only suggested Tesla's slide to oblivion was accelerating.

Never mind, having been honoured by a gratuitous insult from gsy - ("gerontocrap" - a bit feeble?) here is some more data on US Auto Sales.

Not as bad as some feared, but a 11% annual drop in ICEV sales, while Tesla managed a 13.5 % increase over Sept 2018 in a really bad market which ain't so bad. But just as well overseas Tesla sales are currently doing OK (in a pretty grim market worldwide for ICEV sales and many EV sales)

https://www.marklines.com/en/statistics/flash_sales/salesfig_usa_2019
U.S. auto sales drop 11.1% in September
U.S. new vehicle sales of 1,272,726 units for the month of September represented a 11.1% decrease from September 2018.
September’s passenger car sales fell 19.7% to 353,987 units, while SUV and truck sales decreased 7.3% to 918,739 units.
September had an overall SAAR of 17.23 million units compared to 17.33 million units in September 2018.
There were 23 selling days in September 2019, two fewer than in September 2018.
General Motors sales decreased 10.4%, while Ford sales fell 11.8%, and FCA sales fell 9.3% in September.
Tesla’s estimated 16,000 sales in September were up 13.5% from the same month in 2018.
Among Japanese companies, Toyota, Nissan, Honda, Mazda, and Subaru sales decreased 16.5%, 17.6%, 14.1%, 11.4% and 9.4%, respectively, while Mitsubishi sales increased 0.2%.
Hyundai/Genesis sales decreased 6.7% from last September, while Kia sales dropped 13.4%.
Among German companies, Daimler AG sales increased 4.5% and BMW Group sales increased 5.5%, while VW Group sales decreased 9.8% compared to September 2018.
Volvo sales increased 7.0% and Jaguar Land Rover sales increased 5.4% from last September.

But once again profit (not likely) and cash flow - which had better be much better for Tesla's survival (and I am not talking about share price), are the things to watch.
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TerryM

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3813 on: October 03, 2019, 05:26:54 PM »
China just issued Tesla a $700 million (USD) unsecured credit card.

Quote
Vincent (@vincent13031925) 10/2/19, 5:55 PM
Tesla Beijing Entered Agreement With China Merchants Bank Co. for Unsecured 12-Month Revolving Facility of Up to RMB 5 Billion
https://twitter.com/vincent13031925/status/1179515188111822848


The interest being charged is capped at 90% of the Chinese Prime Rate (4.2% today) and is to be used to "finance vehicles in transit to China", and is subject to "certain cash deposit requirements".


https://www.marketscreener.com/TESLA-INC-6344549/news/TESLA-INC-Creation-of-a-Direct-Financial-Obligation-or-an-Obligation-under-an-Off-Balance-Sheet-29328625/


I'd read something recently about Tesla halting deliveries to China since the Chinese facility was about to come on line, but I can't find the reference. The revolving credit line appears to have a number of conditions attached, primarily that it's to be used for shipping vehicles as opposed to parts or assemblies, and also that it's for moving vehicles into China as opposed to being used to export from the Chinese factory.


Terry

TerryM

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3814 on: October 03, 2019, 05:46:13 PM »
Gerontocrat
Those were some interesting numbers. The European brands and Tesla showed gains while Japanese and domestics fell. I don't see the connections.
Is it possible that in looking at a single month we're seeing the froth rather than an indication of underlying trends?
Terry

Tor Bejnar

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3815 on: October 03, 2019, 06:09:20 PM »
Quote
I'd read something recently about Tesla halting deliveries to China since the Chinese facility was about to come on line, but I can't find the reference. The revolving credit line appears to have a number of conditions attached, primarily that it's to be used for shipping vehicles as opposed to parts or assemblies, and also that it's for moving vehicles into China as opposed to being used to export from the Chinese factory.
Upthread (a day or so ago) was the report that a certain Model 3 ("standard"?) would no longer be imported after a certain date, suggesting that "long range" and "performance" would still be.  Plus there are Ss and Xs out there for those with real money.
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crandles

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3816 on: October 03, 2019, 06:15:12 PM »
China just issued Tesla a $700 million (USD) unsecured credit card.

Quote
Vincent (@vincent13031925) 10/2/19, 5:55 PM
Tesla Beijing Entered Agreement With China Merchants Bank Co. for Unsecured 12-Month Revolving Facility of Up to RMB 5 Billion
https://twitter.com/vincent13031925/status/1179515188111822848


The interest being charged is capped at 90% of the Chinese Prime Rate (4.2% today) and is to be used to "finance vehicles in transit to China", and is subject to "certain cash deposit requirements".
(My bold)

Interesting the form 8-K says it is
Quote
for an unsecured 12-month revolving facility of up to RMB 5.0 billion to finance vehicles in-transit to China.
(my bold)

I am not an expert on these documents but:

If the cash deposit requirements were such that the cash deposit amounts needed to exceed the amount borrowed, then surely there would be recourse to those deposits and this would be described as a secured facility. Why require that if there is no recourse to those deposits? It simply doesn't make sense to assume the requirements are anything like that onerous.

Just because there are some limits on the facility, doesn't mean it is secured. I presume we don't know what the certain cash deposit requirements are. It might just be a transaction turnover per month to ensure banking is done with them and not a different bank or it could be something completely different.

If you ask me, since it says it is unsecured, then it probably is.


GSY saying "Get a clue buddy" shows he needs to.

oren

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3817 on: October 03, 2019, 06:24:35 PM »
Quote
Since NOBODY seems like giving the Q3 delivery numbers a genuine look, I will.

-Sales up a little. Plus $15M.

-Mix of vehicles indicates lower margins. Minus $5M.

-More leases. Minus $10M.

-Bogus FSD revenue recognized due to "smart summon" BS. Plus $50M.

-Continually reduced Capex. Plus $30M.

So Tesla will probably report something like a $300Mloss in Q3.
GSY, you may be right. I also expect a $200M-$400M quarterly loss.
Also, since nobody else seems to give this a look, I note your own Q3 expectation was for delivery of 90k cars, so I guess the 97k must be an upside surprise for you.

rboyd

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3818 on: October 03, 2019, 06:27:33 PM »
Watch Tesla Autopilot go through a snowstorm

Quote
Electrek’s Take
This is an interesting video because by using and overlaying the TeslaCam feature, you can also see what Autopilot’s forward-facing cameras can see in those more difficult driving conditions.

During some parts of the video, you can see that the vision was impaired by the snow.

In other parts, Autopilot did surprisingly well even though the road markings were covered by the snow.

That said, the video clearly shows that the system is not ready to handle those kinds of conditions.

To be fair, those driving conditions are also difficult for humans, but there’s always the question of how sensors fair when there’s snow potentially blocking their field of view.

Here we are talking about the cameras, but Tesla even recently addressed the issue of ice buildup on the front to the car messing with the Autopilot’s radar sensor.

They recommend using a Rust-Oleum NeverWet spray coat on the front fascia to help prevent ice buildup. Tesla recommends only using the top coat and not the base one. They give more winter tips here.

As for the cameras, the front-facing ones are behind the windshield and therefore, they rely on the wipers in those conditions – just like human sensors (eyes).

Some of the other cameras are more difficult to keep clean and I expect that we are going to see some other improvements on that front in the future in order to handle more difficult conditions.

The video that Electrek is referring to:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=272&v=N3XyodEpxKw

https://electrek.co/2019/01/28/tesla-autopilot-snow-storm/

crandles

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3819 on: October 03, 2019, 08:11:34 PM »

GSY, you may be right. I also expect a $200M-$400M quarterly loss.
Also, since nobody else seems to give this a look, I note your own Q3 expectation was for delivery of 90k cars, so I guess the 97k must be an upside surprise for you.

Aside from FSD revenue recognition which GSY mentioned, there could be other items that change significantly. One potentially important one is regulatory credit sales and I have no idea when Fiat deal to pool vehicles will start to result in income being recognised. I am also a little uncertain if the large amounts headlined are all coming to Tesla.

Not really sure what GSY means by
Quote
-Continually reduced Capex. Plus $30M.

Capex doesn't come off profit except with depreciation and if there is more capital costs (albeit being added at slower rate per GSY apparent argument) to depreciate and sales volume is similar to Q2 then where does plus $30M come from? Fully depreciated assets exceeding new assets added seems unlikely. Reducing balance depreciation may have an effect of improving profit as the reducing balance comes down (recently depreciation has exceeded capital additions) but $30M looks a little to large, I would estimate nearer $10M.


Anyway:
I am thinking $380M-$430M loss before needing to adjust that range for exceptional and one off items and any changes in items like the FSD revenue recognition, regulatory credit sales and any other major changes.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3820 on: October 03, 2019, 08:22:56 PM »
Quote
I'd read something recently about Tesla halting deliveries to China since the Chinese facility was about to come on line, but I can't find the reference. The revolving credit line appears to have a number of conditions attached, primarily that it's to be used for shipping vehicles as opposed to parts or assemblies, and also that it's for moving vehicles into China as opposed to being used to export from the Chinese factory.
Upthread (a day or so ago) was the report that a certain Model 3 ("standard"?) would no longer be imported after a certain date, suggesting that "long range" and "performance" would still be.  Plus there are Ss and Xs out there for those with real money.

Yes, “Standard Range Plus” is the Model 3 version that will be built in Giga 3.  Higher-end TM3 and S/X will still be made in Fremont.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3821 on: October 03, 2019, 09:56:55 PM »
Quote
Vincent (@vincent13031925) 10/3/19, 9:32 AM
Canaccord Genuity Maintains Buy, $350 Target On Tesla As Firm Notes Co. Reported 'essentially inline Q3 deliveries with record net new orders'; Firm Is 'encouraged that production woes appear to have abated'
https://twitter.com/vincent13031925/status/1179751120467451905


—- FUD Reports:

Tesla Gigafactory China: Mud, "Basically An Open Field," Not Gonna Happen — Skeptical Claims Revisited
https://cleantechnica.com/2019/10/03/tesla-gigafactory-china-mud-basically-an-open-field-not-gonna-happen-skeptical-claims-revisited/

—-
Quote
ValueAnalyst (@ValueAnalyst1) 10/2/19, 5:55 AM
In this article, @Automotive_News BLATANTLY LIES to readers and “estimates” that @Tesla US sales nearly halved in September.
This is what DISHONESTY looks like: autonews.com/sales/japan-3-…
https://twitter.com/valueanalyst1/status/1179334000730689544
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NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3822 on: October 04, 2019, 10:10:24 AM »
Personally I think that people simply didn't relate to the difference between western wages and working rules compared to China.

For instance if I wanted to do this in France I would allocate a minimum of 200% over a China build, maybe 300%.

Why?

Workers hours are restricted, working days are restricted (Sunday is a NoNo), working 24 hours is forbidden and companies are not allowed to work a full 7 days even if they have multiple staffs to rotate.

Then you would have to pay full western wages for the three teams you would need for 24x7 operation.

In China, I'm pretty sure, they are working two 12 hour shifts.  Even if it were 3 8 hours shifts, staff costs are significantly lower.

It had already been seen in the Athens Olympics that you can build really fast if you absolutely have to.  What goes up is the death toll (over 70 for the Athens build).

So if you add all that to an innate faith that Tesla is going to fold before the 3 year build out is complete, you get to the statements that were made.

My "best case" was a few sample vehicles done by end September.  In fact they never completed any.  But are targeting October 14th for actual production start up.

The problem with "faith" is that it blinds you to anything which does not fit within that faith.  Having "faith" that Tesla is going to fail is enough to blind you to the fact that tesla was taking full advantage of the China situation and rapidly building out.  Hence, again, the statements.

Normally we should be over all of this by H2 2020, but Tesla will be into Y planning, Semi launch, New Roadster launch and some more details on FSD and ride hailing.

Which should generate enough smoke to hide just how well Tesla is navigating these rough times in Automotive manufacturing and sales.

To be totally honest the whole Gigafactory3 story is less momentous than Microsoft announcing a phone running on Android....  The world is upside down.  Truly!
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GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3823 on: October 04, 2019, 03:29:48 PM »
GSY, you may be right. I also expect a $200M-$400M quarterly loss.
Also, since nobody else seems to give this a look, I note your own Q3 expectation was for delivery of 90k cars, so I guess the 97k must be an upside surprise for you.

Ya a bit.

7k upside surprise

But days before the quarter ended, Musk penned a deal to finance the sale of approx 14k cars "in transit" to china.

So maybe a 7k downside surprise.

Like all things Tesla, hard to know due to a vale of secrecy. If you think the vale is there to prevent the public from seeing how awesome things are, you are not smart.
big time oops

GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3824 on: October 04, 2019, 03:37:53 PM »
I remember a post - a month ago ? - "Autoshrink" which by looking at US auto sales only suggested Tesla's slide to oblivion was accelerating.

Yes. And it is true.

But that is not why Tesla will fail. It just happens to put a pin in the main underlying bull thesis for the last 5 years.

Tesla will fail cuz the company is run by a mad man.  Musk does absurd and ridiculously inefficient shit. He decided to manufacture in California and New York. He tore out the railhead at his main factory. He regularly announced and takes deposits for products that don't exist. He steeply accelerates deliveries in each quarter followed by a cliff.


Never mind, having been honoured by a gratuitous insult from gsy - ("gerontocrap" - a bit feeble?) here is some more data on US Auto Sales.

Just a typo. I use a Paraguayan keyboard and "t" and "p" are next to each other. Or maybe I was thinking of the shit that pours out of eFelon's mouth. 
big time oops

GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3825 on: October 04, 2019, 03:49:10 PM »
OK, so it seems like everyone agrees that Tesla is going to lose a few hundred million this quarter.

Why would Q4 be any better (or any quarter going forward)?

If you want to claim that Giga3 will add to production, please explain how Tesla is supply constrained if they have steeply lowered prices throughout the year?

If no quarters are going to be better going forward, and Tesla has a boat load of debt coming due as the auto market rolls over, how is this company not BK?


It seems like people actually think the status quo (losing money and raising capital) is a sustainable business model. It is not. It can only occur for one cycle. In a downturn, it dies. WeWork, Uber, Twitter, Lyft, Tesla, Snapchat, Pelaton are all dead in the water. Tech bubble 2.0.
big time oops

rboyd

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3826 on: October 04, 2019, 06:31:31 PM »
Tesla has basically had the US/European markets to itself for many years now and has been unable to show that it can make a GAAP profit. Within the next 18-24 months that will change completely with the major manufacturers releasing many competitive EV models.

In China there may be a one-off pent up demand jump in sales, but there will then be the reality of dealing with the incredibly competitive Chinese market and a much lower average vehicle cost that makes the Tesla very expensive relative to the general market.

Financially, they have to keep taking in new money to pay off old maturing debts and provide working and investment capital (the last one being $860 million stock [at $243 per share] and $1.84 billion in debt). They can probably last until late next year before needing another fund raising - or sooner if the competition/possible recession start accelerating those losses. All this, and they have a market cap of over $40 billion (Toyota's is half that).

From now on each extra quarter of losses destroys the halo of the company and forces investors to use rational valuation models. At some point we will hit the event-horizon (just like WeWork) and the market cap will collapse - removing any ability to fund through equity or convertible debentures. After that there is restructuring funding (high interest are and with direct claims on assets) and distressed sale to another manufacturer.

A decade from now we will look back at Uber/Lyft/Tesla the same way we look back at Nortel (perhaps WeWork was the equivalent of Pets.com?). The earlier period gave us massive telecommunications infrastructure upon which the internet was built out, this one helped accelerate EV's. It was not (and will not) be such good news for the investors in the companies (different for the CEO's who managed to extract huge amounts before the inevitable, just look at the WeWork founder).

Neven

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3827 on: October 05, 2019, 12:52:15 AM »
Just a typo. I use a Paraguayan keyboard and "t" and "p" are next to each other.



 ;D
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blumenkraft

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3828 on: October 05, 2019, 07:08:43 AM »
Who would have thought GoSouthYoungins is capable of lying?

Nice find Neven!
The apocalypse is already here; it's just not very evenly distributed.

TerryM

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3829 on: October 05, 2019, 11:52:13 AM »
I'm not certain that Tesla Motors will go into receivership, though I certainly hope that it does. Crime shouldn't pay, but it so often does.
There are Billion$ floating about seemingly unconcerned with getting any return on their investment. Many families have invested a substantial portion of their nest egg into this venture. These dollar$ have been mixed in with the floating Billion$ and they can't now be separated.


When Lord Black gained control of a corporation he and his partners would suck the life out of it by overpaying the Board (themselves), paying far too much for unneeded "services", (provided by other corporations they controlled), and making unwise investments in companies that the Board members owned.
Corporations with long histories of profitability crumbled in years.
Lord Black went to jail - but emerged with more money than we'll ever see. Those that piled on for the ride weren't so lucky. Many of the middle class that had been heavily invested before one of Black's takeovers are now dependent on welfare, and the communities where the factories once flourished were devastated. I live not far from one of them & it may never fully recover.


Read about the compensation package that Tesla provides to their board members, compare it to what other corporations pay.
Read about Tesla's bailout of SolarCity. Compare the names of the board members.
What value has Elon's brother brought to Tesla, or Solar City? Are Elon's cousins experts in automotive manufacturing?


Many of the Tesla board members cashed out their stock options last year, not for $Millions but for $Billions. What did they see written on the wall. Why did they cash in their chips?


Greta sails across the Atlantic to address the UN as Elon's private jet hops from airport to airport to stay close to its owner - yet Elon claims he's going to provide a technical fix for AGW, and an escape plan to Mars when his fix becomes untenable.


GST mentioned Elon tearing out his factory's rail head. If the Billion$ float cared anything for their "investment", they'd have found a way to stop him. Shipping by truck has cost them $Millions, or $Billions. Elon promoted fake solar roofing tiles to justify bailing out SolarCity - a corporation in which he owned most of the stock.  Is there any possibility that the intertwined boards weren't aware of what was going on? The Boring Company, at that time a pet project of Elon's, used Spacex's property, parts and personnel to dig it's LA tunnel. When it was exposed Elon gave Spacex 5% of the Boring Company.


If the Devil's greatest trick was convincing the world that he didn't exist, then Musk's greatest trick has been convincing investors that he doesn't really care about money. While his huge investors are content with the "float", Elon wants MOAR.
Sorry about the rant. :-[
Terry

philopek

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3830 on: October 05, 2019, 02:26:33 PM »

Sorry about the rant. :-[
Terry

Thank you so much Terry, you for the umpteenth time were capable to express the reasons behind the fact that some users, including myself, are so pissed about the never ending fanboyism that shadows exactly this what you explained and is the real reason why a fail of Tesla will be horror scenario for so many "believers"

It will be one of the few milestones that will be taught at school for bad enterpreneurship and
fraudulent scams.

It's a pitty that one of the few who (look) and see behind has just been caught in a totally unnecessary excuse (lie) instead of simply admitting that he overreacted <snip, name-calling can be funny one time, but it's rather childish, N.>

It happens to most of us that we lose our temper, we just have to admit as a first step to
improve over time ;)
« Last Edit: October 05, 2019, 06:03:46 PM by Neven »

Archimid

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3831 on: October 05, 2019, 02:38:45 PM »
As a Tesla shareholder I'm very grateful for the concerns for my financial well being, Tesla profits and Tesla bankwuptcy. I'm sure they are 100% genuine, not a hair of self-interest in them.  But thanks, but no thanks. I'm buying as much as I can safely buy. Please keep voicing your concerns while I buy some more. I can't help it if my eyes see the following technology as an amazing achievement.

I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3832 on: October 05, 2019, 03:18:35 PM »
Black Tesla Model Y Spotted Driving On Public Road
https://insideevs.com/news/374269/spy-black-tesla-model-y/
Note: we have not seen a black Model Y before, so this would appear to be a new one.
Also note: We first saw a Model X on the road seven months prior to production, and the Model 3 three months prior to production.*


——
Quote
Elon Musk (@elonmusk) 10/2/19, 6:16 PM
Over 550,000 Tesla Smart Summon uses in first few days!
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1179520622004588544
< I'm 500,000 of those
< If you open up to Canada we can add to that  :D
EM:  Aiming for this weekend!
< Any ETA on Europe
EM: Not sure, will ask regulators
< Any update on getting EU regulators to stop nerfing Autopilot?
EM:  Not yet
< When can we see smart parking?
EM:  Hopefully, a month or two, although it may be a little silly at first
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1179523171780681728

Over 500,000 Smart Summons over the first few days, and only a handful of issues reported.  Impressive! 

Of course Tesla and NHTSA have been in communication about Summon; Tesla would not have rolled out the feature without it.
“NHTSA is aware of reports related to Tesla’s Summon feature. We are in ongoing contact with the company and we continue to gather information. Safety is NHTSA’s top priority, and the agency will not hesitate to act if it finds evidence of a safety-related defect.”*

The Summon logic is clearly slower, more careful and more polite than most drivers:
“Parking lots are riskier than you think. Tens of thousands of crashes occur in parking lots and garage structures annually, resulting in hundreds of deaths and thousands of injuries.”
https://www.nsc.org/road-safety/safety-topics/distracted-driving/parking-lot-safety

Don’t overlook the safety aspect:
Advanced Summon: Making Parking Lots Fun (& Safe) Again
https://cleantechnica.com/2019/09/30/advanced-summon-making-parking-lots-fun-safe-again/

Quote
Viv (@flcnhvy) 9/30/19, 7:52 PM
@elonmusk @DisruptResearch @Tesla @karpathy You might need to add unplayable areas to Smart Summon gameplay haha
https://twitter.com/flcnhvy/status/1178820062876184576
Video at the link.

Quote
Everyday Astronaut (@Erdayastronaut) 10/1/19, 8:12 PM
Landed back home and remembered my car could come to us ;D @elonmusk, you’re crazy for this one.
https://twitter.com/erdayastronaut/status/1179187449160966145
Video at the link. “Driving like a teenager.”  Car waits because it sees them as pedestrians in the road.
;D ;D ;D My Mom is watching & saying "That's messed up. I want one."

======
* https://techcastdaily.com/2019/10/02/q3-19-delivery-production-report-model-y-prototype-10-02-19/
~ minute 9+ re Model Y, then Summon.
« Last Edit: October 05, 2019, 03:33:37 PM by Sigmetnow »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3833 on: October 05, 2019, 03:26:47 PM »
Looking at Tesla Q1 through Q3 deliveries (255,400), that’s up 65% over last year through Q3, and over two years, that’s a Compound Annual Growth Rate of 87%.  “That’s a crazy high growth rate.”
https://techcastdaily.com/2019/10/02/q3-19-delivery-production-report-model-y-prototype-10-02-19/

——
Quote
James Stephenson (@ICannot_Enough) 10/4/19, 1:23 PM
Here is your "Tesla Killers" chart, updated through Q3 2019.
As a reminder, this chart shows cumulative monthly U.S. unit sales for Tesla vehicles, I-Pace, Etron, and Taycan since the beginning of last year. All estimates per goodcarbadcar.net .
https://twitter.com/icannot_enough/status/1180171592590069760
Graph below.  Another in the thread “zooms in” on the tiny “killer” data. ;)

——-
“Tesla Demand Cliff” — Mistaken Logic? Tribal $TSLAQ Kool-Aid? Paid Trolling?
https://cleantechnica.com/2019/10/02/tesla-demand-cliff-mistaken-logic-tribal-tslaq-kool-aid-fraud/
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GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3834 on: October 05, 2019, 04:09:49 PM »
Who would have thought GoSouthYoungins is capable of lying?

Nice find Neven!

lol. That's an old Paraguayan layout.
big time oops

GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3835 on: October 05, 2019, 04:17:54 PM »
As a Tesla shareholder I'm very grateful for the concerns for my financial well being, Tesla profits and Tesla bankwuptcy. I'm sure they are 100% genuine, not a hair of self-interest in them.  But thanks, but no thanks. I'm buying as much as I can safely buy. Please keep voicing your concerns while I buy some more. I can't help it if my eyes see the following technology as an amazing achievement.

Does it bother you that you are helping fund an admitted fraudster and serial liar? Do you mind that fElon was working with a known pedophile while claiming another man was a pedophile just because he disagreed with him? Are you okay funding a CEO who personally contributes more emissions that some small nations?  Is it a point of pride that the leader of this cult faked a $80B stock buyout, or that he faked a ramping solar business with a fake magic tile? Are you cool with fake autonomy abilities which get people killed? Do you enjoy helping the man convince people that magic Semis are coming to solve our problems, or worse yet that Mars will be habitable soon?

Buy buy buy.
big time oops

oren

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3836 on: October 05, 2019, 06:55:53 PM »
The level of discussion here is not very high unfortunately. As Tesla is a very polarizing subject, it seems haters gonna hate, lovers gonna love, almost no matter what. I would strongly recommend the strong believers on both sides to avoid reacting to opposing one-sided posts. This will greatly simplify and shorten this thread, and innocent bystanders can still read both sides and form their own opinions.
If someone solely posts positive comments on Tesla, or solely negative comments, no need to react with a countering comment. I am sure the readers already know who is who, and can filter accordingly. I am also sure each poster is certain his/her position is objective while the other is totally irrational. Just leave it at that.

Myself, I try hard to avoid reacting to unbalanced posts, unless I feel I have something to say that merits breaking the vow of silence, or when my resolve weakens. Even then I try hard to make responses short. Give some peace to those innocent bystanders.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3837 on: October 05, 2019, 07:04:58 PM »
The level of discussion here is not very high unfortunately. As Tesla is a very polarizing subject, it seems haters gonna hate, lovers gonna love, almost no matter what. I would strongly recommend the strong believers on both sides to avoid reacting to opposing one-sided posts. This will greatly simplify and shorten this thread, and innocent bystanders can still read both sides and form their own opinions.
If someone solely posts positive comments on Tesla, or solely negative comments, no need to react with a countering comment. I am sure the readers already know who is who, and can filter accordingly. I am also sure each poster is certain his/her position is objective while the other is totally irrational. Just leave it at that.

Myself, I try hard to avoid reacting to unbalanced posts, unless I feel I have something to say that merits breaking the vow of silence, or when my resolve weakens. Even then I try hard to make responses short. Give some peace to those innocent bystanders.

Exactly why Neven specifically designated this thread for links and articles, NOT discussion:

This thread is to be used for the most part to post articles that Tesla Inc. is either successfully implementing its business model, or that it's failing to do so. The Internet is full of tiresome discussions on this subject, so I'd appreciate it if you partake in them elsewhere. Post your evidence for either stance, and then exercise patience.

For a more general discussion on EVs and their future, usefulness and technological aspects, use the thread that was always meant for that: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
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philopek

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3838 on: October 05, 2019, 07:30:36 PM »

If someone solely posts positive comments on Tesla, or solely negative comments.....

A few things to add:

It should mostly about true statements, as objective as possible, means if things are not looking good, (economically, ethically and management wise) as far as future glory of fail are concerned, there is not much else to write than that.

There is not much good to write about glory because economic and/or legal failure are more or less imminent if no significant changes are made or miracles happen.

To position yourself in the middle as an INNOCENT bystander is either a bit arrogant or slightly hypocritical because if the question is black or white (yes/no) (glory/failure) there is nothing in the middle, i.e. grey and the question in this thread is for once clearly glory of failure, nothing else.

It's not honest to put oneselves above those who try to shed light without trying to please both sides.

It's not about pleasing anyone or a..kissing a few reputed members despite of having another opinion, it's about facts and mostly when facts are conveyed in this thread there is either
religious preaching or no reaction at all. For those who dislike the word facts till proven,
we can agree on "truth" and omitting all the stark truth about what we already know
is not honest. If i post something that is not true, as you know, i have no issues to
admit it and apologize while there are folks from whom i NEVER EVER hear something
like ok but, only stereotype repetitions of news, often differing only through the landing site
of the last shipload or being against bears, a non-sympathy that I EVEN SHARE !!!!! Only that
does not change and fact/truth and it never ever brought down a healthy enterprise, perhaps
it accelerated at times the downfall of an struggling and/or ill managed enterprise, which alone
is not good because it takes away time  for turnarounds and makes the filthy rich richer and the
the average shareholder poor.

This is about economic rules and laws, not about the product, not about sales numbers and not about technical details. Once the debts are too high and profits too small or non-existent there will be doom and all posts that deal with other things don't belong in this thread because to have a good product, huge sales or anything of that kind does NOT make the difference in this context.

What will make the difference is whether money is earned or burned, period.

To make certain that there are no misunderstandings, i as well as GSY repeatedly posted that
we like the product as such, i'm still a fan of the cars and GSY was one. Hence no hating involved
here.

One of the main reasons why none of the necessary steps can be made against AGW is that:

- Those who tell the dire truth are discarded as haters and alarmists

- Political correctness or political correct = hypocritical behavior that prohibits to name things.

Too many are moaning over outcomes that others have predicted and that didn't come from
out of the blue but when it was time to act/react shouters in the forest were muted.

I for one am probably one of the less pleasant/loved posters but i can tall you that i post only
a fraction of what there would be to say, hence i'm filtering. That said, that part of your
suggestion is absolutely correct, only that many have no clue how little is considered worth
to tell while there would be many times more to say.

Either Tesla will survive, then it's glory due to the positive impact on a parameter change that
indeed has happened already and is happening, or it will stop to exist in it's current form, there are more than one possibilities for that to happen, and then it's fail despite the before mentioned merits.

« Last Edit: October 05, 2019, 08:59:48 PM by philopek »

philopek

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Archimid

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3840 on: October 05, 2019, 08:12:32 PM »
More than half a million uses. a few days ago. A million is probably very near.  I have seen a video of only 2 actual accidents. I've seen a few "fails", many "acceptables" and a few big "wins". I am pleasantly surprised. I was expecting more restrictions on the capabilities of SS and more accidents by now.

Accidents will keep happening while people are in control of vehicles and walking on the road, SS will have more accidents and eventually a human will be hit. Unavoidable.

The trick is that SS must have a lot less accidents than the average of the population.

The current version of SS was trained on thousands of parking lots and it may be at the level of safety of the average human. The next iteration will be trained on perhaps millions of parking lots.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3841 on: October 05, 2019, 08:14:56 PM »
Quote
Tesla (@Tesla) 10/4/19, 10:26 AM
Czech (…) it out - orders for Tesla vehicles in the Czech Republic are now open!
https://twitter.com/tesla/status/1180126971524734976
Tesla:  (this is the worst tweet we have ever done)

——-
China Tesla Demand Is Spiking
October 3rd, 2019
Quote
Tesla Model 3 and Model X demand are skyrocketing in China, especially since the Chinese government gave a 10% car purchase tax exemption to Tesla last month — a sign of aggressive electric vehicle policy implementation by China.

There are several reports coming out of Beijing and Shanghai about massive amounts of deliveries happening via Chinese Tesla stores.
As evidenced in the featured image..., Teslas have flooded Beijing’s Department of Motor Vehicles in order to obtain license plates. In addition, ... is a short video from outside the Beijing DMV that shows a long line of Model 3s at the facility.

Meanwhile, Chao Zhou is consistently updating the Tesla community about Gigafactory 3 developments by reporting directly from the ground. Chao recently visited the Tesla Shanghai Jinqiao Store and the number of Model 3 sales he saw at the location was nothing short of astonishing.

According to Chao’s meeting with Tesla staff at the Jinqiao Store, a surge in Model 3 orders occurred post-tax exemption. Crunching the numbers, the Jinqiao Tesla Store alone is expected to accumulate 3,000 orders by the end of this month.
https://cleantechnica.com/2019/10/03/china-tesla-demand-is-spiking/
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TerryM

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3842 on: October 05, 2019, 09:18:37 PM »
Existence of said keyboard cannot be verified, perhaps someone post a photograph of his
keyboard LOL

https://wikis.swarthmore.edu/ling073/File:GuaraniIPA.png

https://wikis.swarthmore.edu/ling073/File:GuaraniKeyboard.png

https://www.google.com/search?q=paraguayan+keyboard+layouts&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwib-9LB2IXlAhVLAWMBHR0kBHcQ_AUIEygC&biw=1866&bih=1016
A very nice catch philopek.
The "P" apparently takes the place of the "R" on some Paraguayan keyboards - who would have known - other than the poster to whom an apology may now be in order?


As far as claims that some are posting here to bolster their down side position. Only an exceedingly modest person would be able to refrain from taking a few bows as the stock price shrank this past year. I'm not sure that I've ever met anyone capable of such self restraint. ::)


Terry - Who holds no short positions in any company, and has no investment in any of Musk's enterprizes. ;)

Neven

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3843 on: October 06, 2019, 12:04:44 AM »
Terry - whose name, using a Paraguayan keyboard, would be Perry.  ;D
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gerontocrat

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3844 on: October 06, 2019, 12:31:10 AM »
Existence of said keyboard cannot be verified, perhaps someone post a photograph of his
keyboard LOL

https://wikis.swarthmore.edu/ling073/File:GuaraniIPA.png

https://wikis.swarthmore.edu/ling073/File:GuaraniKeyboard.png

https://www.google.com/search?q=paraguayan+keyboard+layouts&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwib-9LB2IXlAhVLAWMBHR0kBHcQ_AUIEygC&biw=1866&bih=1016
A very nice catch philopek.
The "P" apparently takes the place of the "R" on some Paraguayan keyboards - who would have known - other than the poster to whom an apology may now be in order?
As the receiver of the alleged gratuitous insult I would like to make a few comments.

To change gerontocrat to gerontocrap requires "t" to  be replaced by "p".

I have looked at many keyboard layouts, and all start with qwertyuiop, apart from one because the y does not exist in that alphabet, and is replaced by z. As you can see t is separated from p by three letters.

However, I have not asked for an apology, nor expect one (gsy doesn't admit error (nor does Trump)), nor require one. I regard it as yet more proof of my claim to Royalty - (1st year ice? - bleah).
So let it drop.

Of greater interest is how the qwertyuiop keyboard layout shows how even technology makes us prisoners of history.

https://www.cnet.com/news/a-brief-history-of-the-qwerty-keyboard/
A brief history of the QWERTY keyboard
Quote
The QWERTY layout is attributed to an American inventor named Christopher Latham Sholes, and it made its debut in its earliest form on July 1, 1874

Sholes had been for some years developing the typewriter, filing a patent application in October 1867. However, the original key layout, with the second half of the alphabet in order on the top row and the first half in order on the bottom row, led to some problems. The keys were mounted on metal arms, which would jam if the keys were pressed in too rapid succession.

Sholes' solution was separating commonly used letter pairings, such as "ST," to avoid these jams, effectively allowing the typist to type faster, rather than slower.

He went through several design iterations, attempting to bring the typewriter to market. .... he sold the design to Remington in 1873.

But it is a lousy solution for speed of data entry into computers. The layout does not group together the most frequently used groups of letters input. Many have tried to sell better solutions for computer keyboards - all have failed, because all know this keyboard. Habit is inertia demonstrated and defined.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3845 on: October 06, 2019, 01:58:54 AM »
Poll...
Quote
Teslaratiatiati (@TeslaratiApp) 10/1/19, 4:46 PM
How has #Tesla Summon been working for you in real life? No empty parking lots.
https://twitter.com/teslaratiapp/status/1179135520774873088
Not a scientific result; a couple replies say they chose a random answer just to see the results to that point.  But interesting nonetheless.  Graph below.

—-
Smart Summon is here! And so is the FUD. Should Tesla do anything about it?
Quote
Tesla’s Smart Summon is out on beta release and, as expected from videos previously published by Early Access Program participants, it’s still learning how to be as amazing as it hopes to eventually be.

Hands down, the feature is ridiculously cool and (dare I say it) finally delivering on some of the sci-fi movie promises over the decades that dangled sans-human, self-driving cars in front of our imaginations. However, Smart Summon is also being birthed into a somewhat hostile media environment that has a vendetta against its maker, particularly its CEO. Perhaps a college psychology class could (or has already) taken a dive into why people like Elon Musk inspire so much detraction and (dare I say this as well) “fake news.” But, regardless of what causes the disease, the symptoms are what they are. ...
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-smart-summon-fud-analysis/
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Archimid

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3846 on: October 06, 2019, 05:39:45 AM »
I imagine this is how some of the bears in here will react the first time they see Smart Summon.

I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

Rob Dekker

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3847 on: October 06, 2019, 09:45:37 AM »
Tesla is changing the world, one EV at a time.

Let's run the numbers, shall we ? :

As of Q2 2019, there were some 611,000 Teslas delivered :
https://www.statista.com/statistics/502208/tesla-quarterly-vehicle-deliveries/
with the 97,000 Q3 2019 numbers that makes 708,000 vehicles on the road today.

Let's look at carbon emissions saved for that fleet :

US Department of Energy numbers :
https://afdc.energy.gov/vehicles/electric_emissions.html
show that if you charge an EV from the US average grid electricity, you emit about 1/3rd the CO2 of a gasoline vehicle. And if you charge from the California grid, that reduces to 1/5th the CO2 emissions. And each of these numbers get better as we add more and more renewables to the grid.

Average fuel economy of a US car is about 24 miles/gallon. For average 12,000 miles/year that is 500 gallons/year/car. Driving a Tesla, on average US electric grid, thus saves about 2/3 or 333 gallons/year/car compared to a ICE vehicle.

For the 708,000 Teslas on the road, that means saving 236,000,000/365/42 = 15,395 barrels/day in gasoline saved.

Now in the bigger picture (100 million Bpd global oil consumption), 15,395 barrels/day is not much yet.

But it's a start. And it will be growing as electric cars become more widespread and electricity portfolios become more renewable.

Can you name ANY other company that saved that much in fossil fuels ?

And if you want to get personal, it seems to me that Elon's own carbon footprint had a very good ROI.
« Last Edit: October 06, 2019, 10:01:56 AM by Rob Dekker »
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blumenkraft

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3848 on: October 06, 2019, 11:16:35 AM »
For some reason, the Dutch bought 10% of all Teslas produced.

Makes it the most sold car in the country.
The apocalypse is already here; it's just not very evenly distributed.

GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3849 on: October 06, 2019, 03:47:33 PM »
Tesla is changing the world, one EV at a time.

Let's run the numbers, shall we ? :

As of Q2 2019, there were some 611,000 Teslas delivered :
https://www.statista.com/statistics/502208/tesla-quarterly-vehicle-deliveries/
with the 97,000 Q3 2019 numbers that makes 708,000 vehicles on the road today.

Let's look at carbon emissions saved for that fleet :

US Department of Energy numbers :
https://afdc.energy.gov/vehicles/electric_emissions.html
show that if you charge an EV from the US average grid electricity, you emit about 1/3rd the CO2 of a gasoline vehicle. And if you charge from the California grid, that reduces to 1/5th the CO2 emissions. And each of these numbers get better as we add more and more renewables to the grid.

Average fuel economy of a US car is about 24 miles/gallon. For average 12,000 miles/year that is 500 gallons/year/car. Driving a Tesla, on average US electric grid, thus saves about 2/3 or 333 gallons/year/car compared to a ICE vehicle.

For the 708,000 Teslas on the road, that means saving 236,000,000/365/42 = 15,395 barrels/day in gasoline saved.

Now in the bigger picture (100 million Bpd global oil consumption), 15,395 barrels/day is not much yet.

But it's a start. And it will be growing as electric cars become more widespread and electricity portfolios become more renewable.

Can you name ANY other company that saved that much in fossil fuels ?

And if you want to get personal, it seems to me that Elon's own carbon footprint had a very good ROI.

You are assuming that every Tesla owner is such a twit that they would drive a ICE car 100% as much as they would an EV even though these Tesla owners theoretically care about their emission.

Instilling an ethos of "no need to sacrifice, going green can be sexy and shiny and faster!" is the worst thing I can imagine for the "environmental movement".

Musk flew 150,000 miles last year. On a private jet. Mostly short hops which are extra fuel guzzling. It epitomizes the extend to which the "tesla movement" is not actually about reducing emissions but instead virtue signalling and status seeking.

I mean Musk is planning for SpaceX to make earth to earth "hops" on a spaceship. That is probably the least fuel efficient transportation ever thought up. If you think that guy is about reducing emission, you are a fool.
big time oops