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KiwiGriff

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3900 on: October 11, 2019, 11:29:47 PM »
The real ELEPHANT is this: Tesla is demand constrained.
ROFLMAO.
Yes Tesla sell more cars than they can make and so are demand constrained.
Wait for the y and the pickup  they then will be even more demand constrained. 
Especially as the legacy industry has produced so many competitive Tesla killing models in the Etron, I pace and Taycan .
opps nope Griff none of those cars are competitive on price, performance,  charging, range and most other metrics that count .

What about the new VW ID will it be the Tesla killer?
Hint.
Read the fine print carefully in the VW press releases and note the quoted range is "up to". The base model ID price advertised is not what they will sell for once you spec them to a reasonably comparative  level  to a Tesla....

TerryM

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3901 on: October 12, 2019, 01:55:50 AM »
Quote
Tesla Superchargers will have Powerpacks to help with outages, says Elon Musk
Terry, I was certain you were responding to Sig's post #3879 quoted here, as your scenarios seemed to simulate supercharger situations. Apologies.

And no, I don't expect many powerpacks to be deployed in a few weeks in affected superchargers. It's one of those statements that then get dragged over months or years. It costs a lot of money, it requires permits and land, and will not do much good anyway during a prolonged outage.
Elon the Engineer probably wants this, but Elon the CEO will not cooperate.
No apologies required oren. ;)


My problem with all EV's is that I fear that governments are forcing them out far to rapidly for the infrastructure to be able to handle the resultant loads, & that because of this rush for more electricity the ff generating plants will be kept on line decades after they could have been eliminated. Gerontocrat's chart showed that transportation is ~20% of the problem. Tanking the system to solve some portion of that 20% isn't progress.


My problems with Tesla/Musk are less specific. Elon makes quite basic mistakes, then digs in to defend his errors rather than correcting them. I find his vindictive streak very unappealing. He imagines enemies everywhere and swats flies with a sledge hammer. This is only going to come back on him, not because of Karma necessarily, but because people that he's injured will go out of their way to trip him up whenever an opportunity presents itself.


I snipped ~1/2 hour of nastiness here.


If Tesla goes under lots of people will be tossed under the bus. He's been raking in Billions from governments of all sizes, and rather than putting it back into his companies he's been using it to build himself a parachute that would make the Aga Khan blush.
Buffalo really needed the jobs he promised.
Nevada will never make back what it gave to Tesla.
America still relies on Russia to ferry astronauts to the space station.


I snipped some more. - Self censorship is underrated. :)


The Prius was a step in the right direction. E-Buses and electrified rail provide good bang for the buck. If Tesla succeeds it will trash the grid, if it fails it will crush governments attempts funnel $ to environmental technologies, some of which might have done good things.
Terry

Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3902 on: October 12, 2019, 03:02:28 AM »
cyberGRID software connects Tesla large-scale battery to Slovenian energy markets
Quote
cyberGRID’s award-winning cyberNOC software* met an important milestone today with its integration with Ngen’s Tesla 12MW/24MWh battery storage system located in Jesenice, Slovenia. This represents the largest battery system installed in Slovenia and one of the largest operational energy storage systems in Europe.
...
With regards to the integration of renewable energy, cyberGRID’s platform thus plays a pivotal role in EU-wide efforts towards decarbonisation. cyberNOC also reduces the risk of investment in large-scale battery storage systems by enabling the participation in various energy markets, not just the primary reserve. More specifically, cyberNOC can provide battery operators at C&I locations the opportunity to participate in markets such as the primary, secondary (aFRR) and tertiary (mFRR) control markets, offer grid stability, peak shaving services, frequency and voltage control, and community-level storage.
https://www.cyber-grid.com/cybergrid-software-connects-tesla-large-scale-battery-to-slovenian-energy-markets/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3903 on: October 12, 2019, 03:39:20 AM »
Watch the FUDsters here spin this negatively.

Quote
Elon Musk (@elonmusk) 10/11/19, 8:18 PM
Get Tesla Solar plus Powerwall battery for 24/7 clean power & no more blackouts! Tesla.com/solar

Elon Musk (@elonmusk) 10/11/19, 9:22 PM
Price for fully installed solar plus battery has been reduced ~10% to help those affected by blackouts
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1182828744748044288

Quote
Elon Musk (@elonmusk) 10/11/19, 9:16 PM
V important: pure solar subscription is guaranteed to be a net money-maker for the homeowner or Tesla will take the panels back. Adding Powerwall negatively affects economics, but gives homeowner power protection in event of a blackout.
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1182827425551380482
- Allows homeowner potential to go completely off grid
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Bruce Steele

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3904 on: October 12, 2019, 05:41:27 AM »
Sig, Solar has been easy here in Calif. , lots of sun, nice government support, utilities that IMO pay their share, and large solar utility builds. But batteries for residential aren’t economic...
Dependability is only important when you don’t have it.
 Renewables can put stresses on the grid and Calif. is all in so maybe undependability will drive a lot of new customers into batteries to back up their solar. Another one of those strange places where we can make independent choices that benefit the whole.
 Anyway I am all in and so far it is as easy as solar was five or ten years ago. I have a good friend putting in a different battery system so when he is up and running I can make some comparisons but backup power may be very attractive to lots of people , especially in Calif. . A powerwall is a lot more than backup but if that is what it takes to sell , then sell hundreds of thousands of them.

You putting in a garden one of these years ?

GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3905 on: October 12, 2019, 06:28:14 AM »
The real ELEPHANT is this: Tesla is demand constrained.
ROFLMAO.
Yes Tesla sell more cars than they can make and so are demand constrained.

My opinion is apparently so laughable to you that you need not explicate the extent of your satire...



But I will destroy you if you actually want to venture into the realm of facts and numbers and corporate reality.


Why have Tesla cut prices several times this year (probably an average of at least 10%), while their margin has dropped and contributed to over a billion dollars in losses?

Are you familiar with econ 101 supply and demand?!?

(Tesla is actually demand constrained and would not be cutting prices otherwise. If you don't get this, you are business-clueless.)

big time oops

Archimid

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3906 on: October 12, 2019, 12:07:32 PM »
If Tesla is not demand constrained then why is production increasing? Because they are creating demand with every car they sell. The more people see and ride on Teslas the more they sell. Thus to further increase demand in the long term, Tesla must sell more cars in the short term. A lower price achieves just that.

GSY I have no clue who you are but I 100% believe you when you way you are/were a corporate guy. It shows.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

crandles

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3907 on: October 12, 2019, 12:23:21 PM »
Corporate reality?

10% Q on Q increase in production at existing facilities and working remarkably quickly to bring new factory into production.

If that is anyone but a troll's version of demand constrained then they are living in a very strange alternative reality.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3908 on: October 12, 2019, 02:09:33 PM »
...
You putting in a garden one of these years ?

My garden has no bearing on Tesla’s glory or failure.  However, my solar and my Model Y order do....
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3909 on: October 12, 2019, 02:11:06 PM »
Tesla-hater Ed Niedermeyer has been fired from The Drive.

https://twitter.com/tesla_truth/status/1182752034748948480

https://twitter.com/tesla_truth/status/1182757633184256000

https://twitter.com/tweetermeyer/status/1182679188286754816

———-
Tesla shorties are begging for divine intervention to save them from their January 2020 Tesla stock short positions.

https://twitter.com/groggytbear/status/1182734753470074882

https://twitter.com/aceinmysleeve1/status/1182756975316127745

“… Rest of their lives, they will tell everyone how it's the fault of [NHTSA|Elon|owners|media|fans|me] that it didn't pay off. …”
https://twitter.com/bonnienorman/status/1182738357119377408

—-
And the armies of “Parking Lot Truthers” have decamped and gone back to live in their parents’ basement.

https://twitter.com/tesla_truth/status/1182773369688584192

——
Quote
The Short Shorts Historian (@TeslaHistorian) 10/9/19, 5:36 PM
THIS DAY IN $TSLAQ HISTORY:
Sorry @markbspiegel, it didn't quite work out like you planned.
https://twitter.com/teslahistorian/status/1182047281962520578
Twitpic and data at the link.

——
ICYMI:  Tesla Gigafactory China: Mud, "Basically An Open Field," Not Gonna Happen — Skeptical Claims Revisited
https://cleantechnica.com/2019/10/03/tesla-gigafactory-china-mud-basically-an-open-field-not-gonna-happen-skeptical-claims-revisited/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3910 on: October 12, 2019, 02:15:14 PM »
Recent analyst upgrades to Tesla…

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1181687993360359425.html

https://twitter.com/vincent13031925/status/1179751120467451905


While Waymo and Mobileye self-driving progress has stalled:
Quote
Morgan Stanley cut its valuation of Waymo, a driverless-car firm, by 40% in September, citing delays in its technology
https://twitter.com/theeconomist/status/1182531528347279361

https://twitter.com/valueanalyst1/status/1182371547618656258
- OK, I wasn’t dreaming. The last major news cycle on @Mobileye was 9 months ago at CES, and since then, nada... mobileye.com/in-the-news/
- Don’t be surprised if @Intel writes off its $15B @Mobileye purchase by next year.

—-
Quote
Steve Jobs Ghost (@tesla_truth) 10/10/19, 4:23 PM
It took Tesla more than 4 years to hit 1 billion AutoPilot miles in November 2018.
Before the end of the year, they’ll hit 2 billion AutoPilot miles
The first billion took more than four years. The second billion will take less than one
And the 3rd billion will be even faster
https://twitter.com/tesla_truth/status/1182391174918656001
Image below.

——
Quote
Ming Zhao (@mingcalls) 10/9/19, 11:40 PM
Important news positive for $tsla and $nio: more and more municipal governments in China mandate that new vehicles added in car hailing platforms and taxi services must be electric vehicles.
https://twitter.com/mingcalls/status/1182138843681579008
Text images in chinese at the link.
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SteveMDFP

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3911 on: October 12, 2019, 02:51:19 PM »

Why have Tesla cut prices several times this year (probably an average of at least 10%), while their margin has dropped and contributed to over a billion dollars in losses?

Are you familiar with econ 101 supply and demand?!?
 

Yes, Econ 101 tells us that prices are set to maximize profits.  All vendors price goods to find the sweet spot on a demand curve to maximize total profit.

Problems with applying this interpretation blindly to all situations: 
1) this interpretation implies short-term profits are what's being maximized,
2) there are motivations in some cases for a vendor to set prices well below that "sweet spot."
3) The whole schema only makes sense in a genuine, theoretical, competitive world where there are sufficient vendors available to produce any given product or equivalent.

History shows examples where items are sold at prices well below maximum profit point.  Most often, this is done to build market share.  This is rational because in the real world there are brands and brand loyalty, and each vendor has a monopoly on their own brand.  Building and retaining market share, especially in a rapidly growing industry, can be a very potent, effective long-term investment.

NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3912 on: October 12, 2019, 02:54:08 PM »
No Neil, I am not cherry picking.

Your argument is that Tesla is only not profitable because of their growth. The truth is that capex has been declining and is not lower than depreciation. That is corporate shrinkage not growth.


No, that is not my argument.

My argument is that as Tesla ramps up production, the cost of expansion, operations, r&d and business transition to new areas, per unit manufactured, the loss drops.

That means the actual build, ship and sale, overall, is profitable.

Which means the more they manufacture, the more solid their financial foundation.

It also means that they can cut prices to head off potential competition and Stoke even more demand.

It will take another 2 years for this to become so blindingly obvious that nobody will even consider discussing it.

How many years of operating funds do Tesla have on hand?

2 years.

Remember, loss per unit sold is dropping with volume.  China profits will be higher.  China demand is sufficient to consume the entire output of Gigafactory3.  Even without the rest of Asia as a market.

Then we have the Model Y. Reduced cost to manufacture, shares >60% of components and panels wit the Model 3, higher resale value, more profits.

If you stare at one tree long enough, you will never see the forest. It doesn't matter how long you stare.  It also doesn't mean the forest is not there.
Being right too soon is socially unacceptable.

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NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3913 on: October 12, 2019, 03:19:02 PM »
Building and retaining market share, especially in a rapidly growing industry, can be a very potent, effective long-term investment.

Steve, agree with all of that but would only modify it slightly. Vehicles are a mature market which is expanding incrementally. But, right now, the market is transitioning from one state (FF), to a new EV state.

It is akin to Web 1.0 moving to Web 2.0.  In this case, brand is critical.  Just ask Google.

Keeping the company relevant and making it more available (cheaper), rides the crest of the transition wave.

Those who do not will meet their AltaVista moment.

To whit all my previous statements. Tesla has no interest in artificial profits to please the markets. They have proven they can do it, if required, but it is not the long term goal.

Add to that the fact that regardless of developing a new best in breed computer, new software for self driving, a whole new trucking range, A crossover, a whole new factory in China, an insurance division and a new charging model; the loss per unit manufactured drops at every increment.

Did I forget Powerwall and Solar roof?  Not really, they are not important enough yet.

But they will be.
Being right too soon is socially unacceptable.

Robert A. Heinlein

SteveMDFP

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3914 on: October 12, 2019, 04:15:13 PM »
 

My problem with all EV's is that I fear that governments are forcing them out far to rapidly for the infrastructure to be able to handle the resultant loads, & that because of this rush for more electricity the ff generating plants will be kept on line decades after they could have been eliminated. Gerontocrat's chart showed that transportation is ~20% of the problem. Tanking the system to solve some portion of that 20% isn't progress.
 

I think that's a rational concern, but perhaps overblown. 

When it comes to consumer BEVs (and I detest the automobile culture, btw), electric changes some of the incentives compared to ICE, in important ways.

Given that fueling is slow and range is limited, consumers with BEVs now have an incentive to maximize energy efficiency in their driving that they never had with ICE.

If you drive a gas-guzzling ICE, the only disincentive is having to buy more gas, a cheap good.
If you drive an electron-guzzling ICE, you have much shorter driving range and end up spending a lot of time/effort/inconvenience in refueling.

So consumers will demand vehicles with very good km/kwh performance, even if electricity were free, and even with the highest-capacity battery.  That's an enormous change compared to consumer expectations for ICE.  Thus, we can expect a very big improvement in MPGe with BEVs going forward, without having to impose any regulatory scheme to do so.

Another way in which your concern might be overblown is the ability of BEVs to charge at home with smart metering.  If most vehicles get most of their charging when electricity is in oversupply, then this usage *improves* the economics of rolling out solar/wind renewable power.  In this context, wind and solar can be deployed at least as fast as the ICE cars on the road can be replaced with BEVs.

So even if the transition from ICE to BEV increases electricity usage, we really shouldn't have an issue with over-stressed electrical grids.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3915 on: October 12, 2019, 04:25:31 PM »
Tesla Gigafactory 3 Phase 2 area rises as onsite Supercharger takes shape
Quote
The pace of Phase 2’s construction shows that the buildout in the new area appears to be faster than the construction of the general assembly building, which is part of the Phase 1 zone. Roof trusses in the Phase 1 area took months, after all, yet it only seemed to take a few weeks for workers to begin the setup of the same pillars and roof trusses for Phase 2. 

Apart from the flurry of activity in the Phase 2 area, Tesla and its construction partner also appear to be making great progress in the buildout of an onsite Supercharger station for the electric car production facility. Recent images taken of the Supercharger reveal that several parts of the station have mostly been finished, save for the installation of the actual charging stalls.

Reports from China suggest that Tesla is gaining momentum in the country’s local electric vehicle market. Even before Gigafactory 3 is activated, import data from Tesla China showed that the electric car maker imported 168% more vehicles year-over-year, thanks in no small part to the Model 3. In August 2019 alone, China imported over 3,700 vehicles, a 468% growth year-over-year. ...
...
Leaked images from the general assembly building have also shown vehicles that were fully painted, suggesting that the facility’s paint shop is already operational.
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-gigafactory-3-phase-2-supercharger-buildout-video/

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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3916 on: October 12, 2019, 05:20:46 PM »
Learnings from a very special Giga 1 tour:
• How Tesla went from manufacturing zero lithium batteries to supplying as much as the rest of the world combined.
• How new battery production lines from Grohman made the Model 3 battery ramp possible — and why it’s not yet possible elsewhere…
• and why it will make China’s Giga 3 ramp much, much faster than the original Model 3 ramp.
• Panasonic; and why Tesla’s recent acquisitions point toward the Terawatt-hour goal mentioned in the prior earnings call;
• And why Tesla’s upcoming Battery and Drivetrain Day may reveal yet another step-change in battery manufacturing

Hyperchange GigaNotes: Analysis From My Tesla Gigafactory Tour - YouTube


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TerryM

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3917 on: October 12, 2019, 05:46:17 PM »
Steve
Your 2nd point certainly has merit, at least until the buildout has reached a critical state. After that point EV's become the principal user of 'residential' power and when they are charged becomes peak demand time.


Sig
Just discovered Niedermeyer's twitters last night. He has a great sense of humor & has recently published a book on Tesla. Damn shame his boss(s) couldn't take the heat, but I'm sure he'll land on his feet.


https://twitter.com/Tweetermeyer


P.S.
I had no idea that staying so strictly on topic was a thing with you. Does this apply across all threads?


Neil
Elon just tweeted about Tesla's need to become and remain profitable. I can copy the tweet if you'd like, but it seems to be everywhere.


Terry

TerryM

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3918 on: October 12, 2019, 06:09:43 PM »
Learnings from a very special Giga 1 tour:
• How Tesla went from manufacturing zero lithium batteries to supplying as much as the rest of the world combined.
• How new battery production lines from Grohman made the Model 3 battery ramp possible — and why it’s not yet possible elsewhere…
• and why it will make China’s Giga 3 ramp much, much faster than the original Model 3 ramp.
• Panasonic; and why Tesla’s recent acquisitions point toward the Terawatt-hour goal mentioned in the prior earnings call;
• And why Tesla’s upcoming Battery and Drivetrain Day may reveal yet another step-change in battery manufacturing

<snipped>


Isn't Tesla still contractually bound to purchasing their model 3 cells from Panasonic? I'd read that the new head of N.American Panasonic had verbally contemplated walking out of their half of GF1, and taking their employees & equipment with them if Tesla didn't make some effort to pay their outstanding debt.
Stiffing, then tossing by far their largest supplier/collaborator will make others very leery of signing on.
Tesla tried making batteries in house years ago but quickly returned to Panasonic.
Terry

KiwiGriff

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3919 on: October 12, 2019, 08:42:33 PM »
How Tesla went from manufacturing zero lithium batteries to supplying as much as the rest of the world combined.

Before someone shows ignorance.
A 18650 cell is a commodity made by  competing manufactures.
A lithium Battery is made of many  commodity  cells .
The method of assembly of the battery and how they control charging/discharging  within the battery is presently Tesla's technology advantage not the construction at individual cell level.
This may change as indications are Tesla is expanding into the cell level research and manufacturing with recent purchases of businesses involved in cell technology.

 Lithium based battery's have come a long way in the last three years. This week I  revisited researching  a lithium set up as a house bank for a boat.
Four years ago you would have needed to construct your own battery from individual cells and BMS boards. Now many different manufactures are offering drop in battery's  complete with integrated BMS as a direct replacement for a lead acid battery bank.
 



TerryM

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3920 on: October 13, 2019, 01:53:01 AM »

KiwiG

I don't believe we've reached the "commodity" stage just yet. & I'm not sure that we ever will. :-\


Even when restricting ourselves to the popular 18650 size of lithium cells the chemistry, voltage, combustibility, safety, and efficiency measured by weight, volume, speed of recharging, ability to discharge rapidly, number of recharges and finally costs vary widely.
I personally have been impressed by the LiFe-Po family as built by A123 in various sizes and configurations, but there are plenty to choose from, even when you restrict your usage to battery powered transportation.


Commodity pricing won't appear until the various chemistries and manufacturing processes have coalesced, but we may never reach that stage. Each cell type is a compromise and a battery cell that scores high in one metric will have other characteristics that detract from its suitability in a particular usage.


https://www.batteryspace.com/LiFePO4/LiFeMnPO4-Batteries.aspx


The link provides a quick overview and comparison of some of the many lithium cells available today, but it's a rapidly advancing field & what looks wonderful today may will appear terribly dated in a few years.


I don't think the horses are even at the gates yet. When they are they'll be racing off in various directions depending on what specifications are seen as most important by a particular customer on a particular day. 8)
Terry
[Edit - This discussion probably belongs in a battery thread. I hadn't noticed until after I'd posted,
If the discussion continues let's move to Batteries: Today's Energy Solution.
« Last Edit: October 13, 2019, 01:59:03 AM by TerryM »

GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3921 on: October 13, 2019, 06:16:02 AM »
If Tesla is not demand constrained then why is production increasing? Because they are creating demand with every car they sell. The more people see and ride on Teslas the more they sell. Thus to further increase demand in the long term, Tesla must sell more cars in the short term. A lower price achieves just that.

GSY I have no clue who you are but I 100% believe you when you way you are/were a corporate guy. It shows.

What is a corporate guy?

Answer this, and then I'll let you know.
big time oops

GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3922 on: October 13, 2019, 06:21:04 AM »
Tesla's H1 19 gross profit was less than half  of their H2 18 gross profit.

Tesla's H1 19 gross profit was less than half  of their H2 18 gross profit.

Tesla's H1 19 gross profit was less than half  of their H2 18 gross profit.

Get a clue ppl. This company is BK as F. Every explanation of TSLA as solvent requires HUGE growth numbers.


Q3 will almost certainly be Year over Year a revenue shrinkage. Let that sink in.
big time oops

GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3923 on: October 13, 2019, 06:26:37 AM »
No Neil, I am not cherry picking.

Your argument is that Tesla is only not profitable because of their growth. The truth is that capex has been declining and is not lower than depreciation. That is corporate shrinkage not growth.


No, that is not my argument.

My argument is that as Tesla ramps up production, the cost of expansion, operations, r&d and business transition to new areas, per unit manufactured, the loss drops.

That means the actual build, ship and sale, overall, is profitable.

Which means the more they manufacture, the more solid their financial foundation.

It also means that they can cut prices to head off potential competition and Stoke even more demand.

It will take another 2 years for this to become so blindingly obvious that nobody will even consider discussing it.

How many years of operating funds do Tesla have on hand?

2 years.

Remember, loss per unit sold is dropping with volume.  China profits will be higher.  China demand is sufficient to consume the entire output of Gigafactory3.  Even without the rest of Asia as a market.

Then we have the Model Y. Reduced cost to manufacture, shares >60% of components and panels wit the Model 3, higher resale value, more profits.

If you stare at one tree long enough, you will never see the forest. It doesn't matter how long you stare.  It also doesn't mean the forest is not there.

Woah. It is almost like we are actually having a discussion now. I'm not sure how I feel about this. My foundation is shaken.

All joking aside. THANKS. GREAT!


I understand what you are saying..."there is a gross margin, thus once they sell enough cars, they will make money."

That makes sense. But it makes sense for every business, even really shitty ones going bankrupt.

The question is whether or not Tesla can ever get to the numbers needed. (And what the number is.)

Based on the SG&A numbers and the margin numbers we have seen over time. I believe that Tesla would have to sell 5 times more cars than they currently do to break even.

BUT that is with stiffing ppl on their warranty and not building sufficient supercharing network, AND not spending enough CAPEX to replace current models.

In other words: they are BK as F.
big time oops

GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3924 on: October 13, 2019, 06:29:17 AM »
Neil, you claim to be a corporate guy with some serious chops. (don't tell arch)


If this is so, and you aren't a totaly newb fraud, then I am sure you understand that capex smaller than depreciation is indicative of a shrinking business. Ya?
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oren

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3925 on: October 13, 2019, 08:30:37 AM »
Quote
capex smaller than depreciation is indicative of a shrinking business. 
Often true, but not necessarily. Sometimes a big spike in capex is followed by a long period of capex lower than depreciation. For example, building a very large factory that is oversized for your initial business, and then all it needs are small upgrades. Could this be the case for GF1? Or setting up the production line for a new model that is much larger than anything you've done before, and then using the same equipment, slowly increasing efficiency over several quarters. Could this be Fremont?
I also wonder about the effect of SolarCity assets, which are depreciated while the revenue stream is collected, but are not replaced as that business is dead.
With Tesla it's hard to know, but as usual you are always 100% certain.

NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3926 on: October 13, 2019, 12:28:40 PM »


If this is so, and you aren't a totaly newb fraud, then I am sure you understand that capex smaller than depreciation is indicative of a shrinking business. Ya?

Really?

And what about The units-of-production depreciation method?

One of my daughters ia a senior finance exec. When I asked her to apply for the minister of finance position for the Isle of Man she was resistant. But when I asked her if she managed budget's greater or smaller than that, the answer was immediate, greater.

When I asked her, last night, about my assertion that more production producing a smaller per unit loss, her answer was also immediate. The company is moving towards profitability, not failure.  Especially a company less than 20 years old which has had to create world class manufacturing facilities in a field where the product is new and faces massive inertia from the incumbents.

I didn't need to ask her about depreciation, it was fairly obvious.

I'd never make a company guy GSY, I have been a contractor for more than half my life.  People don't employ me to tell them what they want to hear, they employ me to fix the problems created by Company men who do that.
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Jim Hunt

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3927 on: October 13, 2019, 02:13:36 PM »
What is a corporate guy?

Answer this, and then I'll let you know.

I know that, much like Neil, I am NOT a "corporate guy"!

An extract from my LinkedIn profile:

Quote
I went for an interview at IBM Hursley. It was a nice day and the sun was shining brightly, so I cycled there. I was wearing a tee shirt and jeans. For some strange reason all the others were wearing dark suits. After a long wait I eventually received a "Dear Jim" letter, so I became a research fellow instead of a suit.

A tentative definition for you:

A corporate guy/gal turns up for an interview dressed in a dark suit and riding in a taxi?
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3928 on: October 13, 2019, 03:16:27 PM »
I worked with a guy in Holland.  He worked for Lotus Consulting.  He always wore an extremely expensive suit.

When a colleague asked him why he wore those suits every day he replied.

"you can look the job or you can do the job; the customer can't tell the difference".

I dress to the level of the company.  Today that is Jeans and T shirt in the office.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3929 on: October 13, 2019, 07:31:01 PM »
City garage chargers will soon pop up everywhere
Quote
In a new survey by consulting firm West Monroe Partners, 57% of New Yorkers are forecast to buy an electric vehicle (EV) within the next 24 months.

The same survey found that 45% of Connecticut respondents planned to snap up an EV within the next two years, and that 49% of participants in New Jersey would do so.


“The orders for our electric vehicles are coming in from excited consumers to our offices at several locations in New York City — and it’s all good,” one worker at a Tesla sales office in Manhattan, who declined to be named, told The Post.
https://nypost.com/2019/10/12/new-yorkers-could-face-battery-charging-station-shortage-for-electric-cars/

=====
TSLA short interest is decreasing, meaning more people think the stock price will rise.
Quote
Ihor Dusaniwsky (@ihors3) 10/10/19, 11:13 AM
$TSLA short int is $8.62bn; 35.23mm shs shorted; 24.98% of float, 0.55% fee. Shs shorted down -3.7mm shs, -9.6%, over last 30 days as price rose +5.5% & down -329k shs, -0.9%, over last week. Shorts up+$2.27bn in mark-to-market YTD profits & down -$223mm in Oct, down -$91mm today
https://twitter.com/ihors3/status/1182313288782229504
Chart below.

—-
Model 3 cuts were part of the plan
Why Investors Shouldn't Panic Over Tesla's Price Cuts
https://www.fool.com/investing/2019/10/12/why-investors-shouldnt-panic-over-teslas-price-cut.aspx

—-
Tesla FUD: I Was Wrong
https://cleantechnica.com/2019/10/07/tesla-fud-i-was-wrong/

=====
The smaller cells means “a shorter length of electrode material that is devoid of material defects would be required.”
Tesla patent paves way for compact battery systems that are easier to produce
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-compact-battery-patent-easy-production/

——-
Tesla’s ‘Bioweapon Defense Mode’ is proving invaluable once more amid CA’s wildfires
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-bioweapon-defense-mode-saves-owners/

=====
Speed races just got p0wned.  This is hilarious! ;D ;D ;D

Quote
TOCAlberta (@TOCAlberta) 10/12/19, 10:29 PM
Today we had our first Smart Summon Race in Edmonton, AB, Canada. Thank you @Tesla and @elonmusk for this great feature. #tesla #SmartSummon #tocalberta #ev #canadaeh
https://twitter.com/tocalberta/status/1183208190516744194
2-minute Video at the link.
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Wildcatter

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3930 on: October 14, 2019, 03:41:41 AM »
With the giga3 up, just needing to ramp production, Tesla basically beat the odds. Most of the hardest work is over. Largely because of the red carpet they rolled out for Tesla. I think Elon can be a real idiot, but let's look at why that deal was significant.

10% purchase tax on Teslas removed. Immediate 10% price reduction, increasing demand which was already growing.

About another 10% cost reduction coming from Tesla themselves, for China made Model 3s. Roughly a 20% cost reduction in all. 10% of which only came out of Teslas pocket.

However, 25% import duty removed. That's an immediate cost that goes right back into Teslas pocket for every Model 3 sold. And they'll sell every one in China.

So, adding them up, Chinese consumers will get a 20% cost reduction, and Tesla will get an immediate 15% improvement in margins for every Model 3 made at giga3.

But, there are some additional cost savings too. Both labor and parts will come in cheaper. And the logistical costs from shipping to China will no longer be incurred. That's not insignificant. So, all of a sudden, China became a pretty high margin market for model 3s, and with a 20% cost reduction, they'll sell them probably as fast as they make them.

The crossover market is also better. Model Y will probably be a pretty big hit, and more significant margins. Especially with the "Made in China" stuff, Tesla doesn't even need to advertise. That's crazy.

Their profitability in the short term just depends on how fast they can ramp, given they went through the Fremont nightmare and probably planned to get up and going as efficiently as possible. That's logical. The sweet spot is probably 3k vehicles per week, and then they'll be rolling downhill for the most part.

And the capex depreciation thing reminds me of when my options trading buddies at big tradinghouses were extremely confident, and even mocking me, for buying 5k shares of AMD at $10. Or when I bought nickel futures. I even tried to tell them Enphase and a solar ETF was the easiest money they'd ever make (my area of expertise). Rubber stamp benchmarks simply do not apply in some circumstances. Especially in emerging, capital intensive industry. Because no one in the US does it anymore. It's a foreign concept to finance guys, because we quit doing it. In this case, you would expect capex to be higher than depreciation for a duration, you simply cannot scale in that type of market and prepare for profitability, while also being technologically competitive. If you live in the US, it probably hasn't been done in your lifetime. Finance, and simple lack of will, has meant the US has largely lost this ability. If we want to be global competitors in next gen manufacturing, which is a niche we need to pursue, given the "material age" we're about to enter, we're going to have to find this ability again, and we need to tailor finance + gov flexibility to pursue these endeavors, because there will be a lot of "depreciation > capex " moments. China isn't scared of it, happens frequently, and they are the reason every technology becomes economically viable, as the best scalers in the world. If they had our research abilities, which they're catching up on, they will corner ever single emerging market like they already did with silicon, just about every electronic, solar, and will soon output more batteries than the rest of the world combined. Step changes are coming, and so is automation, there are opportunities arising, we need more companies to be like Tesla. We also need to stop the throat slitting by big finance, who would gladly see US companies trying to put a premier manufactured product on a global scale, go bankrupt if it meant they increased profitability by 2% for one quarter.

That being said, objectively speaking, I think we can largely assume that China's red carpet move with Tesla has probably assured their success. Maybe not in a quarter, probably not in two. But, I'll probably buy some shares, because 3k/week is the sweet spot, and I think they likely hit that faster than people think. I think it's assured in 2020, and scaling up Model Y, next year will be the last "unprofitable" quarters we see, and once sentiment turns, that'll probably be the last time you get it near this price. I'd much rather be 10 months early, than late.
« Last Edit: October 14, 2019, 04:01:24 AM by Wildcatter »

GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3931 on: October 14, 2019, 05:49:55 AM »
Wow, so apparently everyone has an IQ of like 70 on this thread. Cool.  I've always wanted to do some charity work.


Capex being smaller than deprec isn't some silver bullet. I was simply pointing to it to show that Neil 70IQ-idea that Tesla was totally profitable but just spending the money on other stuff was total nonsense.

There were all sorts or responses. None of them made sense. Oren's was by far the closest.


I think I will wait to post here again until the BK happens. So goodbye for the next few months. You are all "not-brilliant" as neven wishes me to phrase it.

Q3 financials will be a disaster. fElon is already throwing a tantrum and attacking reporting who are, you know, reporting facts. My guess is about a half a B loss for this joke of a company.

It is truly sad that this corporate fraud as suckered so many good spirited ppl into this charade. Good day non-geniuses. Until the biggest "I told you so" ever, so long.
big time oops

NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3932 on: October 14, 2019, 12:30:06 PM »
Capex being smaller than deprec isn't some silver bullet. I was simply pointing to it to show that Neil 70IQ-idea that Tesla was totally profitable but just spending the money on other stuff was total nonsense.

There you go again, can't engage, can't win the argument, so start slurring the posters.  I do actually know my IQ because I've been tested.  More than once.  They don't let you into the Army officer programme without testing you and they don't let you play with budgets in the multiple €millions on world wide projects with an IQ of 70.

But carry on, please do.

Not a word, I note, about the  units of production depreciation.  I'm pretty sure Governments don't really like that, but, since Tesla is posting a loss at the moment they won't care.

I gave you an entirely plausible explanation as to why depreciation could be significantly higher than Capex.  You chose to blow it off.

When I went back to College, one of my electives was business accounting.  Granted it was premised on small businesses, but it gave me a grounding to allow me to actually understand the literature.  Not that accounting is my thing, it isn't, I'm all about mechanics and engineering.

In my project work I have to understand TCO, ROI and NPV.

If it were not for the fact that you are making this assertion, GSY, I might even be bothered by someone who claims that my IQ is

Quote
70 to 79—Borderline mental disability
https://www.verywellmind.com/what-is-considered-a-low-iq-2795282

But since it is you I'll take it as a complement that you couldn't find any way to defeat my argument and decided to troll instead.
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NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3933 on: October 14, 2019, 12:33:30 PM »
So wasn't today the day for tentative start of G3 production?  Nothing in the news yet, but I guess it will take a few days.
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Jim Hunt

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3934 on: October 14, 2019, 12:43:44 PM »
I'm all about mechanics and engineering.

I'm all about electronics, computing and engineering, and I have to agree with you that GSY's unsubstantiated allegations concerning our IQ should be taken as a compliment from someone unable to win "the argument"!
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3935 on: October 14, 2019, 03:24:29 PM »
Wow, TSLAQ is fading fast.  Even GSY realizes his arguments are fruitless, and gets out now.  Nothing succeeds like success!

Obligatory link ;) :
Tesla FUD: I Was Wrong
https://cleantechnica.com/2019/10/07/tesla-fud-i-was-wrong/
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NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3936 on: October 14, 2019, 07:43:47 PM »
I was going to post that a few days ago but I lost interest in copying the links across my mobile.

Interesting post though.  He's had to modify his disclaimer because he has bought more stock.  Not much, but still, more than he was claiming.
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philopek

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3937 on: October 14, 2019, 07:48:13 PM »
I'm all about mechanics and engineering.

I'm all about electronics, computing and engineering, and I have to agree with you that GSY's unsubstantiated allegations concerning our IQ should be taken as a compliment from someone unable to win "the argument"!

He is frustrated and is using unwise terminology at times. Had he only said many instead of "everyone" that would still be sufficiently offending but at least in the reach of the possible, while and since my own IQ has been tested many times and a few people here are obviously extremely gifted, that statement by GSY is an unfortunate overshoot, hence wrong. This is unfortunate because his arguments are mostly either totally valid and at times even simply correct.

It's a pity GSY, you don't need to go there but I feel with your frustration while I learned to
first understand the facts of human behavior and attitudes and this way smile more often than getting frustration that way.

BUT more often does not mean it works without fail haha...still losing my temper way too often ;)

And JIM i know you mean similar but to be fair, it's not possible to win an argument against:

- people who have illusions
- people who make topics a religion (believe)
- people who stop reading and listening to anything that goes against their believes (religion)
- fanboys
- ignorants  who are not aware that they are
- people with the Dunning-Kruger effect which is often obvious in this thread

https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Dunning-Kruger_effect

Don't argue with insanes, they pull you down to their level & beat you on their home playground, you can't win
« Last Edit: October 14, 2019, 07:57:01 PM by philopek »

NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3938 on: October 14, 2019, 08:34:20 PM »
Really.

So would you mind answering the question that GSY refuses to even acknowledge.

Why is the loss per unit produced reducing as the volume of vehicles sold increases?

Clearly you have me down as as an ignorant fan boy who sees Tesla as his religion and that under Dunning-Kruger I am

Quote
of a cognitive bias of illusory superiority resulting from an internal illusion created by my low ability and have formed from an external misperception of people of high ability; where "the miscalibration of the incompetent stems from an error about the self,

You, however, have to prove that you are not prone to being

Quote
the miscalibration of the highly competent stems from an error about others."

So answer the question and stop dodging it. It is not a very hard question after all.  It is only hard if you are living an illusion where you have stopped listening to, or reading, anything which disagrees with your faith.

So, please do, for the third time, answer the question.
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blumenkraft

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3939 on: October 14, 2019, 09:03:37 PM »
Wow, so apparently everyone has an IQ of like 70 on this thread. Cool.

"Literally, everyone is driving on the wrong side."
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KiwiGriff

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3940 on: October 14, 2019, 10:13:35 PM »
Projection .
That is when Tesla supporters  get called  Religious by Tesla haters that have a Religious fervor
To the extent they  decide a Renault Zoe is such a better car than a model 3 based only on faith .
They simply do not get how much of a lead Tesla has and no amount of evidence is going to inform them otherwise.

Electric cars are the future .
Tesla is at lest a generation ahead of anyone else. They all ready have further products  in preproduction driving around that are game changers in other automotive fields.
The roadster and the semi are another clear  step forward.
Tesla  has incredible potential to rewrite the automotive landscape with their technology.
Yet we have ignorants who don't have a single clue about how advanced Tesla technology is  and the potential market size for their products.

On IQ.
GSY calling us dumb was the real DK. Not intelligent enough to know he is not intelligent in this company.

George Carlin
“Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that.”

 I know my  IQ is around 2sd to the right of the bell curve. That  makes me just smart enough to know mine is about the average on here .  :)

Tor Bejnar

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3941 on: October 14, 2019, 10:24:02 PM »
Wow, so apparently everyone has an IQ of like 70 on this thread. Cool.

"Literally, everyone is driving on the wrong side."
I'll take my "70" and drive on the wrong side while in my office in front of my stand-up computer desk!

Isn't "70" the new "50"?   ::) :P ;D

Or is that "driving on the wrong side" a golfing joke?

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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3942 on: October 15, 2019, 01:50:56 AM »
Quote
Vincent (@vincent13031925) 10/14/19, 1:12 PM
Source from my anonymous follower:
Tesla Shanghai Gigafactory GF3 will start production of the Made in China Model 3 in days.

$TSLA #Tesla #China #TeslaChina
https://twitter.com/vincent13031925/status/1183792815911784450

——
Tesla construction speed breaks its own record
Quote
US electric carmaker Tesla has started building a battery factory in Shanghai after wrapping up construction of its Phase-1 factory complex, where the cars will be assembled, and it aims to finish the second facility more quickly.

A battery plant will be built on the site, a person close to the Gigafactory 3's construction team surnamed Li told the Global Times. The battery factory will be built more quickly than the Phase-1 area, as it took only a few weeks for workers to erect pillars and roof trusses for Phase-2, while erecting roof trusses in the Phase-1 area took months, according to media reports.

Feng Shiming, a veteran car industry analyst, told the Global Times on Monday that the first batch of vehicle batteries would be fully assembled at the Shanghai factory on October 30, based on what he had heard from some Tesla employees.

The company is also pushing forward with production of its Model 3s. According to a report by yicai.com on Sunday, there has been general speculation in the market that Tesla will begin production at the Gigafactory 3 this week. Tesla hadn't clarified its production plans to the Global Times as of press time.

Li said that the production lines are complete and Tesla is debugging the equipment. He also said that recently, he saw Tesla cars running on test tracks near the factory.

He said he didn't know the exact start of production time.
...
The factory built in the first phase will merely assemble parts shipped from the US*, Feng said. ...
http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1166869.shtml

* This is as I expected.
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NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3943 on: October 15, 2019, 11:12:58 AM »

Or is that "driving on the wrong side" a golfing joke?

No it is a British/European thing. (I can say that now.....)

If you have any interest in the history of it, you can find it here.

https://www.worldstandards.eu/cars/driving-on-the-left/

It is usually a good natured joke but some people are very nationalistic about it and then it is good to drop it.
Being right too soon is socially unacceptable.

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NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3944 on: October 15, 2019, 11:23:34 AM »

Tesla construction speed breaks its own record

This is not that much of a surprise. It is always easier to build onto a mature site than to erect into greenfield.

Witness plowing through a muddy field to dig foundation holes as opposed to extending hard standing and drilling through it with full power facilities around it.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3945 on: October 15, 2019, 02:30:37 PM »
Addition to the “IQ” discussion :) :

“The first rule of Dunning-Kruger club:  You do not know you are a member of the Dunning-Kruger Club.”
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3946 on: October 15, 2019, 02:35:40 PM »
Mystery solved: These doors are labelled “GA Dock”
(As in, “General Assembly.”)

Quote
Jay in Shanghai (@JayinShanghai) 10/14/19, 10:52 AM
More photos of Tesla Shanghai Gigafactory 3.
#Tesla #TeslaChina #GF3 #Gigafactory #特斯拉 #中国 $TSLA
https://twitter.com/jayinshanghai/status/1183757417277878273
Photo below. Another at the link.
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TerryM

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3947 on: October 15, 2019, 04:18:54 PM »
Addition to the “IQ” discussion :) :

“The first rule of Dunning-Kruger club:  You do not know you are a member of the Dunning-Kruger Club.”
Ramen  ;D


Does GA stand for General Assembly in Mandarin?
JC - Just Curious
Terry

blumenkraft

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3948 on: October 15, 2019, 05:06:17 PM »
Electric cars are the future.

EVs are state of the art.

Solar cars are the future, Griff.  8)
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #3949 on: October 15, 2019, 05:06:52 PM »
Addition to the “IQ” discussion :) :

“The first rule of Dunning-Kruger club:  You do not know you are a member of the Dunning-Kruger Club.”
Ramen  ;D


Does GA stand for General Assembly in Mandarin?
JC - Just Curious
Terry

No, it would be more like this:  一般修建    :)
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.