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be cause

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4050 on: October 24, 2019, 11:27:15 AM »
Has someone gone south ?

  well done to TESLA ..  b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 + 1 =  ' if only we could have seen it coming ' ...

NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4051 on: October 24, 2019, 12:24:08 PM »
It is easy to call people stupid when Q1./Q2 results were so bad.  It is very easy to cherry pick the situation too.  It is easy to claim that the Models S/X were the only profitable models when truly high volumes of M3 did not produce a profit in the first 2Q.

However when Q3 delivers even more M3 and the company makes a profit, it is extremely hard to make the case that M3 is unprofitable.

We had a lot of GSY radio silence in Q4 2018 after the results for Q3 came out.  Ditto Q1 2019.  It was only after the the poor Q1 2019 showing that the GSY radio interference stepped up a gear.

One thing I am particularly happy about is the growth of the energy business. It is a particular GSY rant and I would like that one closed out too.

But I am patient. I can wait and see if my IQ descends to 60 or not. After all, if the numbers do not change, then the only other option is to claim we are all incapable of understanding just how Musk has defrauded everyone by providing a false profit.

But, for now, I'll take the peace.
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crandles

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4052 on: October 24, 2019, 12:26:53 PM »
Automotive sales gross profit improving 4% is huge. I didn't expect that.
 
$206 million improvement in automotive gross profit. Some of this is higher production numbers which may improve a little bit more. Some cost reductions have occurred and I wonder when: If lots throughout quarter there could be more to come but if it was all at beginning of quarter or end of last not so much. Efficiencies will tend to tail off but perhaps a little more to come. The profitability explanations seem to rule out it being due to payments for pooling vehicles with Fiat. Regulatory credits at $134m not particularly high.

"We are highly confident in exceeding 360,000 deliveries this year." is a bit disappointing. Would expect them to do 100k vehicles or very near that without Shanghai. 4.5k from Shanghai would be a disappointingly slow ramp up. Maybe they didn't want to say 370k then miss it, so maybe they are hoping for ~15k but don't want to sound too confident of that due to potential teething troubles.

Q4 results may be one of the occasional exceptions because they have all the costs of operating Shanghai factory, specialists sorting problems, training costs (unless these are in Q3 but Q3 general expenses and cost of automotive sales were low), and a very low production level as they attempt to start and ramp up.

Accounts payable 3468 up from 3134 is a large increase and is not explained by cost of revenue increases: 5112 down from 5429 (Selling, general and administrative also down 596 from 647). Operating efficiencies might indicate wages are down but given the production level increase I would have thought this was more same wages but more produced. Holding up payments to get suppliers to agree price cuts doesn't make sense because the price cuts have applied for most of the quarter so the timing for that is wrong. So this is a bit puzzling and there could be some suppliers getting a little unhappy.


NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4053 on: October 24, 2019, 01:14:49 PM »
Crandles, they did do a reshuffle of staff after Q1, move from anciliary to production.  That would give the same wage bill but more production

On the operational costs, I guess it depends what you put new market opening under. In Q1 and Q2 a lot of new marketers were opened.  Not so much so in Q3.  I assume Q4 will leverage that.

The UK is not going to be huge in Q4.  The UK sells nearly half a million in March and somewhere over 350k in September.  The remainder of the year is way lower and bumpy. October is particularly low which will weigh on Tesla Q4 UK numbers.

On the volume sales, it is interesting.  Fremont has never produced  over 90K vehicles in any quarter and Q4 contains Christmas and new year which constrains a large chunk of December.  Added to which there is very little inventory in the pipeline.

To hit 360k, they may be relying on much higher volume from Shanghai than we expect. They might miss.

My main focus will be yoy per unit loss, there will be one unless Q4 finances are spectacular, plus how rapidly GF3 ramps up.

We will be here in Q3 2020 I am sure.  I am also sure the entire discussion will have chanded from If, to When.
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crandles

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4054 on: October 24, 2019, 01:53:39 PM »
Shanghai starting means fewer finished cars in transit to China but more parts in transit/arrived ready for production. Inventory has increased from $3382m to $3581m but the parts element of that will be a greater increase. So this in part explains the increase in accounts payable.

Q4 2018 had good production and delivery numbers (86k 91k) but that was all US and the EV grant was reducing so that helped a lot. This year buyers may prefer a car dated 2020 to 2019 in lots of countries. Christmas is a big slow down in lots of industries especially building construction, but shift work manufacturing can be a lot less affected. Could be stock waiting to sell in early Q1, which might be another explanation for deliveries at only 360k. Guess we will see how it plays out.

Archimid

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4055 on: October 24, 2019, 02:25:07 PM »
 The efficiencies produced by technological efficiency gains could be very significant(>5%). We've seen patents for automated cabling, impressive stamping presses and I'm sure battery pack assembly is evolving quickly. The quest for the alien dreadnought is not over yet.

 But I think that most of it comes from economies of scale. Fremont is now producing 6.1 k Model 3 a week on the same line they were producing 3k Model 3 a week on Q3 2018.

As an example, motors:

 In the conference call, they mentioned that the front motor of the old model S/X was a drag on profits, so they switch that motor for a Model 3 motor  for increased power and range and decreased cost. At the same time, they increased the economic efficiency of the Model 3 motor line.

 Back during the ramp it was mentioned that motor production speed was quite excellent.  Model Y very likely uses the same motors as Model 3, so the initial CAPEX for the Y motors is already done and economies of scales induced by the Y will further improve the 3's margins.
.
 It may be that Tesla exports motors from Giga 1 to Giga 3 for a further efficiency increase, but transportation may offset that difference.

Another example is software. The price of FSD has gone up significantly, but most of that revenue is not recognized. The release of the smart summon feature allowed them to recognize part of that revenue increasing margins. There is much more FSD revenue to be recognized in the future both deferred and potential.
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NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4056 on: October 24, 2019, 02:30:57 PM »
Well it will be an interesting logistics challenge anyway.  For instance the HW3 AI chip is manufactured by Samsung. Which is a hell of a lot closer to Shanghai than Fremont.

That being said, vehicles need to be >50% manufactured in the country to qualify as made and not assembled.  So Tesla must be supplying significant parts from China.

Witness VAG and other panic at the UK leaving the EU.  The UK supplies a Lot of parts for mainland EU vehicle manufacture.

Time will tell. I assume the Inventory increase is part and parcel of having greater capacity.
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4057 on: October 24, 2019, 02:54:52 PM »
Giga 3 is much more than just an assembly plant because it has stamping, paint, and battery pack assembly. Battery cells are locally sourced.  Importing the motors might be a big win if transportation economics make sense.

But in many ways, Giga 3 is a giant assembly plant to build a Model 3 at a price that can reach as many Chinese customers as possible.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4058 on: October 24, 2019, 03:00:08 PM »
”Kirkhorn emphasizes that despite increases to production backlogs, orders continue to grow for the company’s electric cars. Demand is strong. The no-demand narrative is dead, and Tesla is stepping on its carcass at this point.”

LIVE BLOG: Tesla (TSLA) Q3 2019 earnings call updates
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-tsla-q3-2019-earnings-livestream-live-blog/
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NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4059 on: October 24, 2019, 03:05:57 PM »
Sorry should have been clearer.

If the components you manufacture your vehicles from are <50% manufactured in the country the final assembly is gone in, for trade purposes, the vehicle is considered "assembled" in that country.  This is an enrirely different category to "manufactured", for which China local subsidies are available.

So we have to assume that a majority of components will be made or sourced in country.  Which changes the in transit inventry figures.
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4060 on: October 24, 2019, 03:12:45 PM »
Yeah, in general, the more they source locally, the higher the margins (CO2 benefits are just bonus). But because the body and the batteries will be sourced and made locally, the import of motor and inverters may fall within the definition of "locally manufactured".
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NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4061 on: October 24, 2019, 04:13:51 PM »
Yep, I would think so.
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GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4062 on: October 24, 2019, 07:50:48 PM »
NOOOOOOOOOOOOO

I'VE BEEN PURGED!!!

NOOOOOOOOOOOOO
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GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4063 on: October 24, 2019, 07:53:57 PM »
Do you still stand by your loss estimate of $1.3B+ for 2019?

Hmmm. Yes, but that was my low end estimate. So now my low end loss estimate is probably closer to a cool B.
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GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4064 on: October 24, 2019, 08:10:36 PM »
Quick question: What is the largest auto manufacturing building in the world? Neil claims that Tesla owns it. I am unfamiliar with it. Is it on Mars?


Fun earnings report questions:

-Will Tesla have Y/Y revenue decline? (1)

-Will depreciation continue to outpace capex? (2)

-How long can gross margin go? (3)

-How much FSD revenue will Tesla recognize? (4)

Neil still refuses to acknowledge that he makes up totally random things that are concretely false.

1. Yes, auto minus 12% and total minus 8%.

2. Yes, capex $385M and deprec $530M. (Seemingly impossible for a growing company. Wait, whats that you say, they are Y/Y shrinking. Oh, that makes sense then.)

3. NOT LOWER. Higher. Despite the mix of low margin cars being higher. Looks like costs of goods went down drastically. I think that suppliers gave one time discounts in exchange for future obligations and Tesla rolled them all into this quarter. Kinda throwing the kitchen sink at short term profits.

4. I don't know how much FSD revenue they recognized. Can someone enlighten me?


I think the main story is that TSLA super out performed expectations by pulling everything positive they could into the Q. Credits, FSD recog, etc. Meanwhile they postponed payments (accrued liabilities).

This would seem like a logical strategy if they want to raise money very soon.


The strange thing is how capex continues to be very small. I think the question of Giga3 ownership needs to be raised at this point. Tesla appears to be expanding operations while their financial statements say the opposite.
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GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4065 on: October 24, 2019, 08:14:18 PM »
One thing I am particularly happy about is the growth of the energy business. It is a particular GSY rant and I would like that one closed out too.

The energy "business" is a total catastrophe. Yes, there was growth this quarter. After a like 8 shrinking quarters it is not a surprise that at some point the amount of shrinkage capacity runs out.

The solar tile is a lie.

The Solar City bailout was nepotism at its worst. If you think otherwise, I am downgrading your IQ to 55.
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crandles

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4066 on: October 24, 2019, 08:14:51 PM »
Do you still stand by your loss estimate of $1.3B+ for 2019?

Hmmm. Yes, but that was my low end estimate. So now my low end loss estimate is probably closer to a cool B.

$967M loss for the 9 months, so the worst case for Q4 is a $33M loss. Surely you would accept that is a loss level they can cope with while Shanghai production ramps ups?

At that rate of losses, cash reserves would last for in the region of 160 quarters so bankrupt in 2059 wt.... LOL

GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4067 on: October 24, 2019, 08:17:05 PM »
However when Q3 delivers even more M3 and the company makes a profit, it is extremely hard to make the case that M3 is unprofitable.

Until TSLA posts an annual profit, they will be unprofitable. The "case" is that simple. And they will never post an annual profit. NEVER. No fElon company will. If he ran a gas station, they would always post a loss.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4068 on: October 24, 2019, 08:42:15 PM »

The solar tile is a lie.

"Third time lucky" or "3 strikes & you are out"?

https://techcrunch.com/2019/10/23/tesla-is-launching-version-three-of-its-solar-roof-tile-this-week/
Tesla is launching version three of its solar roof tile this week
Quote
Tesla  will debut a new, third iteration of its solar roof tile this week — with an official debut tomorrow afternoon. Tesla CEO Elon Musk said during the company’s earnings call on Wednesday that it’ll make an official announcement detailing the differences in generation three on Thursday afternoon.

Tesla originally unveiled its solar roof tile product back in 2016, and officially opened pre-orders in 2017. During the company’s annual shareholder meeting in June, Musk said that the product was already in its third iteration, which he said improved performance and put the product on cost parity with cheap, non-solar roofing tiles, once you factor in savings over time on utility cost plus the cost of purchase for the new roof.

It seems like that version was in testing at that point, and is now ready for general consumer sales and purchase. The solar tiles have not seemed to have seen consumer installations in any kind of significant scale to date, with existing customers with reservations in place claiming they haven’t heard much in the way of installation timeline expectations. Perhaps we’ll learn more about availability and roll-out plans along with tomorrow’s “official” launch of the version-three product.
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GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4069 on: October 24, 2019, 09:05:25 PM »

The solar tile is a lie.

"Third time lucky" or "3 strikes & you are out"?

"Tesla  will debut a new, third iteration of its solar roof tile this week — with an official debut tomorrow afternoon. "

Ya man. They debuted the solar tile over 3 years ago. It doesn't exist.
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GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4070 on: October 24, 2019, 09:08:49 PM »
Do you still stand by your loss estimate of $1.3B+ for 2019?

Hmmm. Yes, but that was my low end estimate. So now my low end loss estimate is probably closer to a cool B.

$967M loss for the 9 months, so the worst case for Q4 is a $33M loss. Surely you would accept that is a loss level they can cope with while Shanghai production ramps ups?

At that rate of losses, cash reserves would last for in the region of 160 quarters so bankrupt in 2059 wt.... LOL

Tesla loses about a B every year. This year will be close. Last year was double during the model 3 ramp. But in general about a B a year. 2059 would be a lot of capital raises. The debt load would go from 10B to 60B at that point. But it is all fake fiat money, so maybe.
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KiwiGriff

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4071 on: October 24, 2019, 09:33:25 PM »
logic error.
Tesla is expanding.
They don't yet have enough battery supply  to support  the cars, the trucks and the power products expansion. 
This constraint with battery supply will be resolved in time. There are strong hints that Tesla will be building its own cells in future.
The total market for the power wall, power pack  mega pack and trucks is bigger than that for cars .
Yet GSY complains they are not yet selling products they have in the pipe line at the same time he attacks the lack of profits.
Well duh ....expansion costs money and takes time.

I note he has dropped the demand constraint for the 3 nonsense .
Ya can always move the goal posts once again.
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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4072 on: October 24, 2019, 09:34:59 PM »
GSY, please don’t use yellow for emphasis, it is very hard to read.
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GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4073 on: October 24, 2019, 10:12:01 PM »
GSY, please don’t use yellow for emphasis, it is very hard to read.

Was it hard to tell that the solar tile that fElon was holding up, was a fake product? that they would install effectively ZERO of 3 years later? was that due to yellow font? or fraud?
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4074 on: October 24, 2019, 10:37:27 PM »
I am not talking about what Tesla/Elon does or does’t do. I am talking about a faint yellow word you could just as well have typed bright red.
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GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4075 on: October 24, 2019, 10:47:43 PM »
I am not talking about what Tesla/Elon does or does’t do. I am talking about a faint yellow word you could just as well have typed bright red.

Okay. Sorry. I won't use it any more.


the answer was FRAUD
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GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4076 on: October 25, 2019, 12:41:02 AM »
I made this myself. I'm very proud. Best work of my life. Took 30 hours.


Entire years, (4 quarters combined), rolling for past 5 years.

Tesla is "no brainer" profitable.  ;)  (Just ask Neil) It is obvious.
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4077 on: October 25, 2019, 12:50:46 AM »
GSY, I am curious.
Do you think Tesla is the fraud, or is it the concept of EVs that is a fraud?
Could some future company succeed?
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NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4078 on: October 25, 2019, 12:58:18 AM »
And I thought that radio interference was a problem solved with digital communications.  <sigh>.

I did a bit of digging into the FCA deal with Tesla.  $1.8bn in ZEV credits over 3 years starting in 2020.

As for imminent failure?  Cash reserves increased by $0.3bn, so at this rate they'll fail... Never.

The Model Y will, supposedly, launch with full body stamping, reducing over 70 components, which have to be assembled and welded, down to about 12 or so.  Also it will come with smart wiring.  I'm assuming this is going to be fairly difficult to get off the ground. Smart wiring was mooted in the early 90's but was not really viable with BNC (think coax), network cabling and chip based circuits which resemble dinosaurs compared to modern electrics.

I'm assuming smart wiring will need fairly extensive shielding, will be prone to hub component issues and go through several revisions before they finally get it right.  But when they do, reducing 1.5km of wiring down to 100m, per vehicle, is going to be MASSIVE. It's also going to make assembly of the vehicles via purely robotic means one step closer.

This is typical Tesla.  Find a problem, hit it head on, work around the issues today but engineer the solutions for tomorrow.  It is similar to what Henry Ford did with his assembly lines.  It is about seeing a situation and designing a better situation, rather than spending endless time (people), working around the flaws in that situation.

However, that being said, Tesla is safe and secure again for another quarter.  Musk has learned to rein in his style and it is working. The shorts just got a jolt to the system and the shares currently being shorted are at record lows.

Of course it is all going to fail and come crashing down in pieces.  Some time in....  The next few months to a year.  It's just my IQ of 70 that can't see it.

Ignorance is bliss....
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GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4079 on: October 25, 2019, 01:04:11 AM »
To be fair to Neil (gross), here is a graph of the dollars lost per car (annual rolling average of both) for the past dozen Qs.

Yes, they no longer burn 20K per car. That is not indicative of a profitable company.

Tesla couldn't even make money when they were selling overpriced cars to their biggest fanbois (before any competition arrived).

These days they sell dollars for 95 cents. Same as WeWork or Uber. The business model of these "unicorns" is a joke. Just the result of 0% interest rate madness.


For clarity: (Neil isn't gross [i don't know so at least]' being fair to Neil is gross)
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gerontocrat

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4080 on: October 25, 2019, 01:04:53 AM »
I made this myself. I'm very proud. Best work of my life. Took 30 hours.

Entire years, (4 quarters combined), rolling for past 5 years.

Tesla sort of did it already- in their Qu 3letter
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4081 on: October 25, 2019, 01:07:22 AM »
And I thought that radio interference was a problem solved with digital communications.  <sigh>.

I did a bit of digging into the FCA deal with Tesla.  $1.8bn in ZEV credits over 3 years starting in 2020.

As for imminent failure?  Cash reserves increased by $0.3bn, so at this rate they'll fail... Never.

The Model Y will, supposedly, launch with full body stamping, reducing over 70 components, which have to be assembled and welded, down to about 12 or so.  Also it will come with smart wiring.  I'm assuming this is going to be fairly difficult to get off the ground. Smart wiring was mooted in the early 90's but was not really viable with BNC (think coax), network cabling and chip based circuits which resemble dinosaurs compared to modern electrics.

I'm assuming smart wiring will need fairly extensive shielding, will be prone to hub component issues and go through several revisions before they finally get it right.  But when they do, reducing 1.5km of wiring down to 100m, per vehicle, is going to be MASSIVE. It's also going to make assembly of the vehicles via purely robotic means one step closer.

This is typical Tesla.  Find a problem, hit it head on, work around the issues today but engineer the solutions for tomorrow.  It is similar to what Henry Ford did with his assembly lines.  It is about seeing a situation and designing a better situation, rather than spending endless time (people), working around the flaws in that situation.

However, that being said, Tesla is safe and secure again for another quarter.  Musk has learned to rein in his style and it is working. The shorts just got a jolt to the system and the shares currently being shorted are at record lows.

Of course it is all going to fail and come crashing down in pieces.  Some time in....  The next few months to a year.  It's just my IQ of 70 that can't see it.

Ignorance is bliss....

I'll summarize the above for those who are on a tight schedule:

"babble blabble, nonsense, blabble, blah"



I really do wish you would converse in a more straight forward manner. It is all babble mixed with anecdote sprinkled with conjecture. Grrrr.
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GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4082 on: October 25, 2019, 01:10:42 AM »
I made this myself. I'm very proud. Best work of my life. Took 30 hours.

Entire years, (4 quarters combined), rolling for past 5 years.

Tesla sort of did it already- in their Qu 3letter

LOL, that middle graph almost looks like they are doing aight. Notice they don't graph capex, which has now declined like 10 straight quarters and is now way below depreciation (; growth company   ;) )
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GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4083 on: October 25, 2019, 01:15:24 AM »
GSY, I am curious.
Do you think Tesla is the fraud, or is it the concept of EVs that is a fraud?
Could some future company succeed?

Oh gosh.

EVs will totally take over. At least for smaller side stuff. Big trucks for long hauls and (especially) mining wont go electric for a LONG time. But small stuff like cars will become the norm to be EV.

It is kinda a fraud that EVs are green. They are probably (or at least will be) less polluting than ICE vehicles, but that doesn't make them anywhere close to greens. Personal passenger vehicles in general are an absurdity.

I used to really like Tesla (like 7 years ago) (I was young and maybe a tad naive), but over time I have come to realize that fElon is a total fraud. The Solar City bailout followed by the fake weed buyout woke me up to how insane the fraud was and how unhinged and culty Musk's fans were to be unfazed.
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NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4084 on: October 25, 2019, 01:27:21 AM »
On a totally different note, I missed this.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DeepScale

Quote
DeepScale, Inc. is a privately held, US-based technology company headquartered in Mountain View, CA,that develops perceptual system technologies for automated vehicles. On October 1st, 2019 it was purchased by Tesla
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oren

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4085 on: October 25, 2019, 02:11:38 AM »
The Model Y will, supposedly, launch with full body stamping, reducing over 70 components, which have to be assembled and welded, down to about 12 or so.  Also it will come with smart wiring.
IIRC smart wiring was mentioned for Model Y, but did not make it into the final design due to the desire for maximum parts commonality with Model 3.
Not sure about the full body stamping thing.

NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4086 on: October 25, 2019, 11:48:33 AM »
Oren, I was following the main news.  I didn't follow it up on Tesla sites.

I would suspect that smart wiring has a few more problems than just commonality with M3 though.

So it may be that the patented stamping may not happen for this iteration.  But I would still expect the number of panels to drop anyway. We will just have to wait a bit to see.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4087 on: October 25, 2019, 02:39:45 PM »
Info on the new wiring system patent.

New Tesla Model Y Wiring System Is Revolutionary
Quote
Tesla goes on describing the technical details of the new wiring system – which are publicly available at the patents office – and makes the following conclusion:

This new architecture reduces the number and length of cables and moves certain controllers into subassemblies which then control one or multiple devices present in the vehicle. To achieve power and signal transmission, new cables and connectors have been created and described herein.

In this new wiring architecture, subsystems are packaged and defined in one or multiple assemblies in certain embodiments. For example, a door assembly might contain one controller (or hub) that controls multiple devices, such as locking components, lighting components, audio components, etc. In addition to decreasing the number and length of wiring needed, the ability to create these subassemblies and then connect them to the wiring-architecture backbone will decrease assembly time during general assembly, which is very desirable to increase productivity in a vehicle manufacturing process. The subassembly may be created ahead of general assembly with only the connection between the door subassembly and subsystem made and verified during general assembly.


While Tesla's main goal is to probably have robots make this assembly, the biggest gain relates to less complexity and less mass for the car.
https://insideevs.com/news/361298/new-tesla-wiring-system-promises-to-cause-a-revolution/
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4088 on: October 25, 2019, 02:45:27 PM »
Any source that links the wiring system to the Y? It seems to me that such a change is likely to be implemented in every new vehicle.
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NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4089 on: October 25, 2019, 03:23:41 PM »
Any source that links the wiring system to the Y? It seems to me that such a change is likely to be implemented in every new vehicle.

https://electrek.co/2019/07/22/tesla-revolutionary-wiring-architecture-robots-model-y/amp/

I didn't really dig much after that.  Seems it did not make the cut, although I would have thought that was one major advantage for the Y.

Dropping it, however, might have allowed them to bring the Y forward to Q2.

Electret thinks it is a big deal.  So do I.  However I work in that world and did work in the world of physically wired cars. I think the challenges of moving from a verifiable physical point to point wiring network, to a logical signal routing network with independent hubs, has been a bigger challenge than Tesla expected.

The error checking, alone, must produce more traffic than the actual signals.  Patiently waiting for your door to reboot before the window will wind up, in the rain, is not a winning concept.

The goal is worthy, the benefits are legion, but the task is far from easy.
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GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4090 on: October 25, 2019, 04:01:55 PM »
Oren, I was following the main news.  I didn't follow it up on Tesla sites.

Follows "main news"....Cites "electrek....

Any source that links the wiring system to the Y? It seems to me that such a change is likely to be implemented in every new vehicle.

https://electrek.co/2019/07/22/tesla-revolutionary-wiring-architecture-robots-model-y/amp/

I didn't really dig much after that.  Seems it did not make the cut, although I would have thought that was one major advantage for the Y.
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GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4091 on: October 25, 2019, 04:38:10 PM »
Something that seems to be overlooked by the Tesla bulls is the extent to which operating at a loss is the antithesis of sustainability.

A company that makes money takes a certain amount of valuable stuff and creates other stuff of more value.

A company that losses money takes a certain amount of valuable stuff and creates other stuff of less value.

Tesla has lost about $7 Billion in its history. Thus there is $7 Billion less stuff than there would have been without Tesla.

To be fair, the company Tesla does exist as a result of these $7B in losses, which is currently valued at like $45B. But that valuation is total nonsense and will get WeWorked before too long. As will every other Uber, Lyft, Pelaton, Pinterest. (Companies that only ever lose money, aren't worth money. In a bubble they might seem like it, but reality will hear its head before too long.)
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Archimid

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4092 on: October 25, 2019, 05:07:51 PM »
Quote
Tesla has lost about $7 Billion in its history. Thus there is $7 Billion less stuff than there would have been without Tesla.

That's all?

Still, 7 billion in losses for its history, looking at 24B of revenue this year seems like a pretty good deal to me. Not to mention factories, stores, supercharger networks and last but not least, software.

Quote
To be fair, the company Tesla does exist as a result of these $7B in losses, which is currently valued at like $45B $56B

There, fixed it for you buddy.
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4093 on: October 25, 2019, 05:13:45 PM »
Quote
4. I don't know how much FSD revenue they recognized. Can someone enlighten me?

"Note that with the release of Smart Summon in the US, we were able to recognize $30 million of deferred revenue."

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4094 on: October 25, 2019, 06:27:15 PM »
Still, 7 billion in losses for its history, looking at 24B of revenue this year seems like a pretty good deal to me.

WHAT? THAT IS INSANE.

It doesn't matter if it was for 1T of revenue. $7B in losses is huge. How does revenue amount in anyway change the amount of capital destruction?!?
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GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4095 on: October 25, 2019, 06:28:47 PM »
Quote
4. I don't know how much FSD revenue they recognized. Can someone enlighten me?

"Note that with the release of Smart Summon in the US, we were able to recognize $30 million of deferred revenue."

Thanks. I think smart summon should represent more like $30.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4096 on: October 25, 2019, 06:40:09 PM »
9pm UTC

Quote
Tesla (@Tesla)
10/25/19, 12:30 PM
Join us at 2pm PT today to learn all about our V3 Solar Roof product.

Visit ir.tesla.com to listen in.
https://twitter.com/tesla/status/1187768486300438528
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4097 on: October 25, 2019, 07:21:06 PM »

WHAT? THAT IS INSANE.


No I'll tell you what is insane.  VAG, BMW and Mercedes spending 100bn over the next 10 years, on which they will see virtually no return other than not going bust, compared to today's operations.

Why? Because they ignored the whole situation until it was almost too late and let Tesla take an unassailable lead.

7bn to enter a business worth around $1tn a year and take a niche lead? Peanuts.

Ford and GM spend this kind of money regularly.  The only reason they don't show a loss is because their business is big enough to absorb it.

Tesla is now reaching that critical mass and will be able to self fund everything somewhere in the decade to come.

Of course GSY, you shout and yell and stamp your foot, call us idiots and fools with mental deficient IQ.

All the fools and morons need to do is wait.  Because the fools are aware that, year on year, Tesla proves us correct.

When was it Tesla was going to crash and burn again?
When were they going to run out of cash?
What was the number of Model3's it was going to be impossible to produce?
Gigafactory3 was never going to be built, let alone produce a single car.
The list goes on.

Don't you get tired of being proven wrong?

For 2020, we have the pleasure of your

Model3 is a fraud
Semi is a fraud
Roadster 2.0 is a fraud

To look forward to also being destroyed. 

Not by faith,  dear me no.  Just by waiting for Tesla to do it.

We'll be here.  Don't wait up.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4098 on: October 25, 2019, 07:21:32 PM »
Rob Maurer talks about the Q3 financial call

Quote
The two biggest questions for Tesla are Demand and Profitability, and Tesla took huge steps to answer both of those questions today.

Q3 revenues were pretty close to Q2 revenues but Cost of Goods Sold on automotive revenue was $213 million less than Q2.  So pretty similar revenues but that $230 million of cost that disappeared, that goes right to gross margin. And that flows through to the bottom line, and that’s where we see this big success for Tesla from a profitability perspective.

Over the last 18 months Tesla’s free cash flow has been positive $1.1 billion.  The days of this excessive cash burn idea for Tesla are long gone. Even if we look trailing 12 months, that’s been positive $1 billion. … After the next quarter actualizes, Tesla should be free cash flow positive for the trailing two years. That is NOT “burning cash.”
https://techcastdaily.com/2019/10/24/q3-2019-earnings-report-review-10-23-19/

——
Positive and negative:
Analyst reactions to earnings, updated short interest info
https://techcastdaily.com/2019/10/24/analyst-reactions-to-earnings-updated-short-interest-10-24-19/

(I did note that cowardly Adam “$10 price target” Jonas found a proxy to ask Morgan Stanley’s question on the call this time. ::) )
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4099 on: October 25, 2019, 07:41:02 PM »
Quote
Kevin Rooke (@kerooke)10/23/19, 5:09 PM
Free Cash Flow (Q3 2019)
 
Tesla: $371 million
Ford: $207 million
https://twitter.com/kerooke/status/1187113788111294465

Quote
The Short Shorts Historian (@TeslaHistorian) 10/24/19, 4:14 PM
When you ask the right questions but get the wrong answers.
There was a touching thread from @RyanDoherty47 who lost most of his net worth shorting $TSLA. One of the comments said he "always asked the right questions". But it doesn't help if you are fed the wrong answers...
https://twitter.com/teslahistorian/status/1187462430810501121
- Ryan was a big fan of @TESLAcharts, who is notorious for cherry picking data to create bearish charts about Tesla. I've debunked many of @TESLAcharts' deceptive charts (see last tweet of the thread), and tried to warn people about his malicious actions, but there's a problem...
- Ryan wrote "I still don't feel like I was 'wrong'". He used $TSLAQ's famous blocklist to silence all the voices from the people who tried to warn him. And instead was flooded with incomplete and false data from several fraudulent $TSLA short sellers that cost him dearly. ...
Images and more at the link.

Quote
Earl of Frunkpuppy (@28delayslater) 10/24/19, 5:05 PM
“You see, I was betting against the guy who lands rockets, makes electric cars, and digs tunnels because this Twitter account said all the events and numbers were fake....”
$TSLAQ
https://twitter.com/28delayslater/status/1187475180047650819

Quote
Kim Paquette (@kimpaquette) 10/24/19, 12:26 PM
But the 10K, bruh! #tesla #fwaud #bearytales $TSLA #shortburnofthecentury #LFG #Baggypalooza
 $TSLAQ
https://twitter.com/kimpaquette/status/1187405133191221255
Twitpics: Q3 call was a sham; 10K will show everything

Quote
Earl of Frunkpuppy (@28delayslater) 10/24/19, 12:48 PM
$TSLAQ today comforting each other
https://twitter.com/28delayslater/status/1187410492521897985
(Image below.)

TSLA is currently trading at just over $321....
« Last Edit: October 25, 2019, 07:46:19 PM by Sigmetnow »
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