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GoSouthYoungins

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GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4301 on: November 08, 2019, 02:14:22 PM »
What will fraudsters do? Well, fraudy fraud of course.
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NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4302 on: November 08, 2019, 02:22:38 PM »

It is really ironic that your post was immediately after Neil's where he explicitly refuses to say why Tesla's battery configuration is so great AND is unreplicatable.

Why would I say it is unreplicable?  Of course it is replicable. So long as you pay Tesla for the Patent.  Also it means that the incumbents can't lock in the tech themselves even if Tesla asked no royalties.

Why is it so great?  Because they subjected it to an in depth analysis.

What are the problems with building it
What are the problems with charging it
What are the problems when it fails, either through accident or cell failure.

They then set about resolving, to the best of their ability, those problems.  Leading to the most robust pack, the best BMS (currently), and a pack designed to channel heat away from the driver in the event of a catastrophic failure.

They then patented their designs.

Now everyone else is trying to catch up and not able to just use Tesla tech.

Whilst I agree there is more than one answer to any problem, there are unlikely to be two "extremely good" answers to any one problem.

So that is why it is so good, why manufacturers are not replicating it ( a very different thing from unreplicable), and why Tesla is so far ahead.

Watch this space, Patents last for 20 years for physical items and 14 years for designs.

Hence the reason I replied the way I did.  You were too blinkered to see what I was talking about.

This is not rocket science.  The chemistry may be challenging to produce more resilient cells, but the stacking of cells and the management of heat and charging voltages and amperages is mid 20th century tech.  Tesla just applied 21st century CAD/CAM and computing to it.
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NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4303 on: November 08, 2019, 02:44:56 PM »
https://www.wsj.com/articles/new-york-state-writes-down-value-of-tesla-plant-in-buffalo-11573159578

Ouch

I'm not going to subscribe to read the whole article so I had to go to Politico to find the full text.

It is written in a way that it can be reduced to make it look like Tesla screwed the government.

The full text is here, although it is not a lot longer.  But it is critically different.

https://www.politico.com/newsletters/newyorkplaybook

Quote
“STATE OFFICIALS recently wrote down more than $1 billion in economic development investments on several high-tech projects across upstate New York, including the solar-panel factory in Buffalo operated by Tesla Inc., documents show. Gov. Andrew Cuomo first announced the factory in 2013 as the cornerstone of an effort to jump-start the upstate economy with manufacturing facilities developed by the State University of New York’s Polytechnic Institute. The state spent $959 million to build and equip it. The Buffalo plant, as well as other factories near Syracuse and Plattsburgh, is owned by the Fort Schuyler Management Corp., a nonprofit entity led by officials from SUNY Poly and other state agencies.” Wall Street Journal’s Jimmy Vielkind

Tesla don't even own it.

I did find another report from 2018 which talks about where the money has been going.  AT that time, $1.5bn and only $750m to the Solar factory.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/02/nyregion/cuomo-buffalo-billion-ny-kaloyeros.html

In 2018 at the height of the M3 ramp up, staff numbers were falling.

It is completely inconceivable that staff numbers will not rise if the projected number of roofs are actually sold.

Yet another "wait and see" moment.

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GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4304 on: November 08, 2019, 04:43:28 PM »
Yet another "wait and see" moment.

Over three years since the "product" was "unveiled". It's a fraud. How long do you need to wait to figure that out? 10 years?  ???

This "wait and see" theory could be applied to anything false to make it just not true yet. What a load of intellectually dishonest crap. More pathetic 5-year-old-esque "thinking".
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philopek

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4305 on: November 08, 2019, 06:28:01 PM »




You can compare efficiency of vehicles that way but not efficiency of technology at all because to use the extremes as an example, the e-tron is an SUV and the model S is a streamlined coupé.

Further it depends if an OEM has a limited number of goals they want to or have to achieve in a certain segment or if they have to deliver on many more criteria like payload, trunk size, legroom on the backseets, noise levels etc.

What Oren said about technological advantages is in part true in others not, i.e the part about drag coefficient that i just explained depends on how many goals should be achieved that will need some compromises to get the targeted combination of features and criteria under one umbrella.

As to recuperation that is definitely not true because the optimization of common brakes with recuperation braking is not just about getting max energy out of it. That looks good on the spec-sheet but during a ride it's well worth to give some recuperation potential away for smoothness and safety.

This topic is quite complex and in parts prone to personal preference.

In about 5 years time Quality will have outperformed the simple basics the way like modern engines and build quality has started to outperform sheer power like in 7+ Liter displacement engines of the 60ies as compared to half or less the size ICEs in European and Japanese vehicles thereafter.

This post would become way too long to mention all the details which is why i say that we shall see such development and i cannot proof it today.

Only thing i suspect is that those who nowadays see Tesla through pink glasses will find all kind of lame excuses once the shit hit the fan.

:D

KiwiGriff

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4306 on: November 08, 2019, 07:27:59 PM »
Quote
the e-tron is an SUV and the model S is a streamlined coupé.
y
Love how you expose your minds ability to ignore information that goes against your bias.
The model X is also in that comparison. The X is a far larger SUV than the E Tron ....it also is more efficient  by a large margin.

Tesla 3 is not only more efficient than any other car.
It is safer and more technologically advanced.
Tesla builds extremely good cars that happen to be electric not just good electric cars.
The 3 is  being bench marked by the motoring press against the worlds premium car brands halo ICE offerings.
The biggest endorsement. 
On more than  a few occasions the car journalists who have done such comparisons have turned around and brought a model 3 .

 

Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4307 on: November 08, 2019, 09:10:39 PM »
zerohedge (@zerohedge) 11/4/19, 12:41 PM
Major Hedge Fund Capitulates On Tesla Short As David Einhorn Accuses Musk Of "Significant Fraud"
...

More background in this article; particularly regarding the “short shorts” debacle. ;D

Tesla’s Elon Musk pens open invite to TSLA short with surprise gift offering
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-elon-musk-tsla-short-open-invite/
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NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4308 on: November 08, 2019, 10:32:07 PM »
Yet another "wait and see" moment.

Over three years since the "product" was "unveiled". It's a fraud. How long do you need to wait to figure that out? 10 years?  ???

This "wait and see" theory could be applied to anything false to make it just not true yet. What a load of intellectually dishonest crap. More pathetic 5-year-old-esque "thinking".

You said the same about the Model 3.  You also said that Tesla was not making a profit on models S and X.

V3 solar roof is now open for order and ramping up. If there is no solid evidence of that by Q2 2020, then you have a case that no real product exists.

Shall we wait just a little longer?

After all you have waited 3 years, what are a few more months?
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NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4309 on: November 08, 2019, 10:45:54 PM »
The model X is also in that comparison. The X is a far larger SUV than the E Tron ....it also is more efficient  by a large margin.

Yes, but it is also significantly more expensive than the e-tron in it's cheaper editions.

The true comparison is the Model Y and it is going to wipe the floor with the e-Tron when it ships.

Although, given the urgent recalls for the e-Tron because of a battery pack fault that could lead to it igniting whilst charging, we might call it the étron.

Tesla got past those issues years ago.  It seems that, like politicians, car manufacturers have the right to make the same mistakes all over again.

My Brother has generated a few phrases over the years running test practises.

"You cut corners, you hit lamp posts"
"We enjoyed making that mistake so much, we decided to do it All Over Again"
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GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4310 on: November 09, 2019, 05:14:48 AM »
You also said that Tesla was not making a profit on models S and X.

The best 4 quarters Tesla has put together in the last 5 years add up to a $330 Million LOSS. WTF ARE YOU SMOKING?!? I know it's not #funding-secured. That stuff doesn't produce severe hallucinations.
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GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4311 on: November 09, 2019, 05:16:24 AM »
This wait and see MOMENT has lasted 1,106 days. That is quite the MOMENT. Apparently Neil thinks the next 200 days are the crux. Whatever.
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Rob Dekker

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4312 on: November 09, 2019, 06:38:03 AM »
Tesla in the news - 5 years ago:

"It will take established carmakers all but five minutes to put upstart Tesla in its place, and out of business."


https://dailykanban.com/2014/10/manager-magazin-tesla-disrupted-mercedes-porsche-audi/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4313 on: November 09, 2019, 08:43:33 PM »
Quote
Tesla Driver (@M_xalher) 11/8/19, 6:04 PM
Big electric SUV test in Norway’s MOTOR mag.  The new EQC vs e-tron, iPace and @Tesla Model X.
** Model X wins again! **

“Some people think Tesla interior quality is low, but they COULD NOT BE MORE WRONG. It has excellent materials ... feels futuristic and cool”

https://twitter.com/m_xalher/status/1192940997615005696
Images from the article at the link.
- Some key issues:
@Audi annoying sound of “noisy motors”, high consumption.
Jag charging issues, too much plastic, bad infotainment.
@Daimler EQC infotainment gives that Windows 98 feeling, at times so bad “... you want to punch it”.
- Model X not the most exciting ride feeling, but longest range, excellent infotainment, high quality interior, charging network. “Still the best purchase.”

—-
Fast Charging a Porsche Taycan Costs 5X more than a Tesla
https://wholemars.net/2019/11/08/fast-charging-a-porsche-taycan-costs-5-times-more-than-a-tesla/

——
Tesla Model 3 wins over Sheriff’s Office after test drive, Model Y considered for future fleet
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-model-3-wins-over-sheriffs-office-after-test-drive-model-y-considered-for-future-fleet/

——
Tesla’s first-mover advantage over rival car makers should only get bigger
Quote
... Today’s ICE auto manufacturers are basically wholesalers of their cars to auto dealers that are their franchisees. This business model is a Great Depression relic that went basically unchallenged until Tesla came along. Tesla decided that the traditional business model was not appropriate for the new EV domain. Instead, it borrowed from Apple, which controls the full customer experience, from buying a phone to servicing it to upgrading to a new one.

Auto dealers, an asset to car companies today, are tomorrow’s liabilities, as Tesla’s direct distribution and service model should provide a cost advantage once it gets to scale. Tesla’s model is more customer-friendly and efficient, allowing the company to capture the profit that ICE carmakers share with their dealers. Because a good number of Tesla’s cars are built to order, the company doesn’t need massive inventory sitting on parking lots. Moreover, ICE manufacturers may not be able to replicate Tesla’s direct-sales business model because they are stuck with the franchise agreements they signed with their dealers.

For ICE automakers to succeed in electric vehicles, they should set up separate EV units with management reporting to the board of directors. The EV management team should be given a blank check, equity in the new company, and the ability to hire people from inside and, most important, outside of the company. The existing ICE business should be run with a focus not on growth but on maximizing cash flows. It will be difficult to do, considering that these companies will need to introduce new, exciting cars every few years and entice consumers to buy them, just to keep financing their losses on EVs. ...
https://www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/guid/ADCDA23C-0014-11EA-B01C-9FE0F60F0DC2

—-
Quote
ES (@ericsteiman) 11/8/19, 2:23 PM
Baillie Gifford 13F has been filed.
Added 41K shares of $TSLA in Q3. Now own 13,451,571 shares or about 7.5%
https://twitter.com/ericsteiman/status/1192885350429007872
 
——
Do you miss Tesla parking lot videos? ;)  If so, here’s a drive-by of the Fremont factory yesterday.
https://twitter.com/teslaownersebay/status/1192847444922392577
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4314 on: November 09, 2019, 09:42:51 PM »
China going crazy for Tesla.
Quote
Vincent (@vincent13031925) 11/9/19, 4:49 AM
Email Notification from one of the Tesla salesman in China. New orders keep coming in every minute. Yeah, every single F’n minute.
And YES again, just one of the salesman’s email notification.
$TSLA #Tesla #China #DemandCliffMyAss
https://twitter.com/vincent13031925/status/1193103299022483456
Image below.
At this rate, it would take just over two days for 3,000 Teslas to be ordered….

—- 
Quote
Teslas in Shanghai  (@tesla_china) 11/8/19, 4:07 AM
There's this.  :o  ;D
I spotted this "Texas Highway Patrol" Model 3 on Changde Road. On the back in large white letters is written "State Trooper"
Tesla owners in China are into some weird sh*t

#tesla $tsla #特斯拉
https://twitter.com/tesla_china/status/1192730262867566592
Image below.
< Kinda like all the Americans who get Chinese characters tattooed on their arms without knowing what they say.
TiS:  By the way, you literally see Teslas every few minutes walking the streets of Shanghai now. It's crazy. Ss, 3s, and Xs are everywhere! And the made in China version hasn't even hit the streets yet. Can't wait.
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NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4315 on: November 10, 2019, 10:39:11 AM »
This wait and see MOMENT has lasted 1,106 days. That is quite the MOMENT. Apparently Neil thinks the next 200 days are the crux. Whatever.

Apparently GSY can only plot a trend curve downwards.

I've never smoked anything, even a single cigarette.

GSY, apparently, has a clear understanding of the effects of mind altering substances.
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GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4316 on: November 10, 2019, 03:03:01 PM »
I've never smoked anything, even a single cigarette.

I'm not sure I've told you this recently enough: YOU ARE SOOOOOO COOL.

GSY, apparently, has a clear understanding of the effects of mind altering substances.

Indeed.
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GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4317 on: November 10, 2019, 03:11:59 PM »
https://buffalonews.com/2019/11/08/pennies-on-the-dollar-the-tesla-plant-isnt-worth-nearly-what-the-state-paid-to-build-it/

What happens when you give fElon $1 Billion taxpayer dollars? He turns it into $75 Million for you in a few short years.

New York State spent $958.6 million to build Tesla Inc.'s solar panel factory in South Buffalo and buy a big chunk of the equipment inside.

Now, auditors are saying the building and all that equipment is worth just under $75 million
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CognitiveBias

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4318 on: November 10, 2019, 06:39:41 PM »
GSY,
  I'm sure you read up on it.  Why not mention that Tesla has not taken the write-down, just the non-profit 'man in the middle'.  No, that runs against your narrative.  I think you would be much more effective if you took a more nuanced bear position.  I look forward to your posts because they generally contain some food for thought.  Unfortunately that nugget is typically surrounded by some heavy bias, and unnecessary attacks.

"
What the write-down doesn't reflect is the economic value of the solar panel factory's operations – and state officials warned against interpreting the write-down as an indication that the RiverBend factory's value has dropped by more than would be normal for a three-year-old factory. The size of write-down also reflects that Fort Schuyler receives only $1 a year in rent from Tesla, they said.
"The value to Fort Schuyler is what we're looking at here, not the value to Tesla or to New York State," said a Fort Schuyler official, who said the valuation is "somewhat subjective" and was arrived at after considerable discussions with its auditors."

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4319 on: November 10, 2019, 06:57:19 PM »
Unfortunately that nugget is typically surrounded by some heavy bias, and unnecessary attacks.

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Neven

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4320 on: November 10, 2019, 08:10:25 PM »
That nugget is the reason GSY is still an ASIF member (albeit on and off moderation). I still think the 24-hour-say-all-you-want-after-Tesla-quarter-results was a great idea.  :)
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Archimid

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4321 on: November 10, 2019, 10:41:26 PM »
More on Tesla's approach to Neural Networks and self-driving. This 11-minute talk has loads of great information.

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NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4322 on: November 11, 2019, 02:26:58 PM »
https://buffalonews.com/2019/11/08/pennies-on-the-dollar-the-tesla-plant-isnt-worth-nearly-what-the-state-paid-to-build-it/

What happens when you give fElon $1 Billion taxpayer dollars? He turns it into $75 Million for you in a few short years.

Ah, yes, skim reading.

Just who is Silveo anyway?
Did the local government build the factory for Musk and "give" it to him? Or did it build a factory for itself on the premise that Solar City would "use it to good effect".

Did the local government buy the equipment for the factory because they could lease it to the next prospect in case Solar City went bust, or did they deliberately just "give" Musk the money.

Was the site really a brownfield redevelopment, for which Federal grants are available?  Or was it just some weed driven pipe dream that Musk led them onto.

Was it built on government contracts which attracted Fraud investigations, or did they give Musk the money to build them a factory.

Did the Silveo product live up to the nanomachine hype and claims of 30% more power than traditional solar cells, or did Tesla have to ditch the technology after it tanked Solar City?

Is Tesla still perfecting the Silveo technology?  Did Panasonic object?  How would you know with reporting like this?

Had Musk walked away and let Solar City go under, how many of those 800 jobs would have remained and how much would that factory have been worth?

Did Panasonic really invest $250 million in the factory?

Did the Buffalo Billion also facilitate the IBM technology hub and the Albany Molecular Research project in the Conventus Building? If so, how much of it was used?  Numbers vary on the build out.

Finally, at the very end of the article, is the write down due to Musk's promises?

Very peripherally.

The entire premise, sold to the people by the politicians, was fatally flawed.  The required rescue of Solar City and the subsequent requirement of Tesla to shift Supercharger and othe manufacturing to Buffalo in order to protect the 800 jobs, at a time when the two largest solar manufacturers in China went belly up, just lends the lie to the story the politicians fed the people.

But, no, it is All Musk.

He's bad you know!

There are nuggets of truth all over the article but the main premise of the article passed through the Bull and dropped out of the rear end.
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CognitiveBias

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4323 on: November 11, 2019, 03:00:36 PM »
Thanks for the deep dive Neil

GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4324 on: November 11, 2019, 03:13:07 PM »
The required rescue of Solar City....

You are aware that fElon sold the acquisition as a business no brainer and promised future exponential growth and a new amazing product (fake roof tile).

It's total fraud. It is one of dozens of reason he is fElon. That you look at this whole saga and shrug and say, "whats the big deal", it insane and shows you to be a deranged person. I suggest you take a health dose of legal healthy dose of hallucinogens or go to a sweat lodge or spend 40 days in the desert. And rethink your life and your values.
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GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4325 on: November 11, 2019, 03:16:43 PM »
If you want to know how fElon tries to silence critics....well there are so many ways. But a common one is to sue them. And John Oliver made a video about these things last night, so I thought I'd share.



EDIT:

Here is a nice TSLAQ thread from today about the same thing...

https://twitter.com/TESLAcharts/status/1193857211069583362
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blumenkraft

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4326 on: November 11, 2019, 05:33:33 PM »
LOL, they literally use the Daimer font! Might be directly from Daimler marketing?
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NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4327 on: November 11, 2019, 05:39:25 PM »

You are aware that fElon sold the acquisition as a business no brainer and promised future exponential growth and a new amazing product (fake roof tile).


I am aware of that.

I am also aware that subsidy cuts and rising taxes on solar energy was driving companies to the wall.

I agree with Musk.  Tesla storage and EV's allied to a quality solar power product is a no brainer.

You are arguing timing, semantics and badly worded press articles to make Musk a fraud and a fake.

Fine.  I'll wait and see.

In case you are unaware, the cutting of solar subsidies in the UK and France brought domestic solar to a screeching halt.

The only way it is ever going to start again is if people can store and consume their own power rather than selling it to the grid for less than the grid charges in return.

You can keep your fElon stance and I'll keep my wait and see stance. Let's review this again in a year and we can see who has the correct view.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4328 on: November 11, 2019, 08:34:07 PM »
$TSLA has been trading around $345 (up ~2.5%) and above most of the day.

Jefferies sees stock climbing more than 18% in the next year due to prospects for longer-term profitability.
Jefferies raised its price target on Tesla to $400 from $300
Quote
Jefferies raised its price target on the stock and said it sees the company “maintaining its edge in product, affordability and technology.”

“Without assuming it is smooth sailing from here, Q3 reported gross margin levels that are consistent with sustained profitability while ASPs should stabilize ahead of H2 2020 improvements. Stabilization in 2019 sets a better foundation for a return to growth in 2020 revenue and earnings. We continue to see Tesla maintaining its edge in product, affordability and technology.”
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/11/11/analyst-calls-of-the-day-tesla-qualcomm-cisco-more.html

—-
Tesla Is Finally On Track To Scale Up And Continue Showing A Profit
Quote
Tesla’s automotive journey must be split into two periods: before 2018 and afterward. In 2017, Tesla delivered 103,000 cars, which increased to 245,000 units in 2018. Tesla is targeting deliveries of 360,000 to 400,000 units this year. Even if Tesla manages to hit the lower end of its guidance, it would mean Tesla has increased its production 3.5-fold in two years.
https://insideevs.com/news/381441/tesla-hunt-scale-beginning-yield/amp/

—-
Model Y release candidates are out and about:
Tesla Model Y visits historic Kennedy Space Center in Florida
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-model-y-kennedy-space-center-pictures/
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gerontocrat

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4329 on: November 11, 2019, 10:49:01 PM »
$TSLA has been trading around $345 (up ~2.5%) and above most of the day.

Jefferies sees stock climbing more than 18% in the next year due to prospects for longer-term profitability.
Jefferies raised its price target on Tesla to $400 from $300
Quote
Jefferies raised its price target on the stock and said it sees the company “maintaining its edge in product, affordability and technology.”

“Without assuming it is smooth sailing from here, Q3 reported gross margin levels that are consistent with sustained profitability while ASPs should stabilize ahead of H2 2020 improvements. Stabilization in 2019 sets a better foundation for a return to growth in 2020 revenue and earnings. We continue to see Tesla maintaining its edge in product, affordability and technology.”


I think Jefferies also said if Tesla screw up the downside was $150 per share .
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4330 on: November 12, 2019, 02:13:52 AM »
Quote
ValueAnalyst (@ValueAnalyst1) 11/11/19, 1:12 PM
No one,
Not a single analyst,
Expects $TSLA losses in 2020;
$TSLAQ is officially dead.
https://twitter.com/valueanalyst1/status/1193954567358238722
Image below.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4331 on: November 12, 2019, 03:53:48 AM »
Rumors flying that Elon Musk is in Berlin, related to Gigafactory 4.
Quote
Morten Grove (@mortenlund89) 11/11/19, 7:04 AM
The Falcon has landed! (not the rocket, that's later! The plane, it's [owned] by "Falcon Landing LLC" that's a SpaceX company)
https://twitter.com/mortenlund89/status/1193862070678233090
Berlin Schönefeld Airport
   —-
Alex (@alex_avoigt) 11/11/19, 4:42 PM
Thats no surprise at all.
Its about Government support & that needs to be negotiated.
Merkel owns a PhD in Physics so they will understand each other & she is pragmatic.
Having GF4 in Germany is the best way for Merkel & Altmaier to wake the German Auto industry up.
Its overdue

https://twitter.com/alex_avoigt/status/1194007542197817346

Magnus Hüttenberend (@mgns) 11/11/19, 3:21 PM
Berlin was never in discussions for the factory, I believe. It was always the region of Lower Saxony, which is arguably “close” to the Berlin Airport and it makes sense to sign anything related in the capitol.
https://twitter.com/mgns/status/1193987250868178952

Edit:  And before anyone complains about this trip’s carbon footprint, please consider for one minute how many millions of clean energy trips could be created from this one dirty one.
« Last Edit: November 12, 2019, 04:43:42 AM by Sigmetnow »
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KiwiGriff

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4332 on: November 12, 2019, 04:43:23 AM »
 Tesla is receiving so much support from China because they see the value in having Tesla compete in their market.
Seems the Germans have worked it out as well.

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4333 on: November 12, 2019, 05:43:57 AM »
When will the Americans figure this out?  (And we have a couple factories already...)
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4334 on: November 12, 2019, 09:39:29 AM »
When will the Americans figure this out?  (And we have a couple factories already...)

When the US stops having a market which prefers vehicles that emit 260g CO2 per KM I guess.
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4335 on: November 12, 2019, 05:25:31 PM »
Seems the Germans have worked it out as well.

Way too optimistic IMHO.

They figured nothing out. They just recently put a 35 euro price on a ton of CO2. For some, not for everyone - god forbid.

Those people (CDU/SPD Koalition) are living in other dimensions. They have no clue what's needed and wanted.

I think it's more likely that the reason for Merkel welcoming Tesla, is because she thinks it's not a threat to the German car industry. But it is.

Refugees welcome

KiwiGriff

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4336 on: November 12, 2019, 06:24:40 PM »
Tesla’s Model 3 Success Hits BMW the Hardest.
Market evolution.
Quote
Two years after the Model 3’s rocky debut, drivers like Woodruff have startled automakers with a sudden rush toward electric vehicles. In the U.S., Tesla’s sedan has taken over the luxury class, outselling the category-defining BMW 3 Series and Mercedes Benz C-Class combined. And it’s doing so at a higher price: The average Model 3 goes for around $50,000, which is more than any of the top 10 vehicles that buyers traded in from other brands, according to responses to Bloomberg’s Model 3 owners survey. No other sedan in America is generating more revenue.

We asked 5,000 Model 3 owners about their previous cars and whether they’ll ever go back to them. Some of the most common trade-ins, somewhat surprisingly, were economy cars: Honda’s Accord and Civic, the Toyota Camry, and the Mazda 3. But as a percentage of a brand’s total sales, no one has been hurt more by Tesla’s success than BMW, the responses show.
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2019-tesla-model-3-survey/market-evolution.html

Osborne effect.
We are seeing consumers holding off from buying a new car as they wait for an electric one that suits their needs.

Up take of new technology follows a S curve.
It will only get worse for company's that do not have competitive electric offerings.

It will not take much more to kill off some of the legacy industry.  Not only the sales Tesla is winning but the slow down in the market overall will be hitting bottom lines.
losing a percentage of your volume business kills margins and the ability to develop new products.


Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4337 on: November 12, 2019, 07:20:30 PM »
Via Google Translate:

Elon Musk arrives at the Car Gala in Berlin
Quote
This evening award How To Cars and BILD am SONNTAG the Golden Steering Wheel. It's about the best car news of the year!

The internationally coveted prize was launched in 1976 by publisher Axel Springer and is Europe's most important award in the automotive industry. BILD shows the 43rd Gala from 20 o'clock live. From 21 cars in the final, the winners will be announced in seven classes - selected by our readers, driven to their limits at the Lausitzring by a top-class jury.

Bosses and celebrities from the automotive industry, the media and politics can not escape such an important award: Barbara Schöneberger moderates the award ceremony, among others VW boss Herbert Diess, the new BMW boss Oliver Zipse, Audi CEO Bram Schot, Federal Transport Minister Andreas Scheuer (CSU), the former racing drivers Matthias Ekström and Hans-Joachim Stuck as well as the moderators Lina van de Mars and Laura Karasek.

Other guests: Yasuhiro Aoyama, President and CEO Mazda Motor Europe, Steffen Cost, Managing Director Kia Motors Germany, Bernhard Kaplan, Managing Director Mazda Germany, Bernhard Maier, CEO Škoda Auto, CEO Luca de Meo, Ralf Speth, Jaguar Land Rover CEO, as well as Alain Uyttenhoven, Managing Director and President Toyota Germany.

Only at the last moment has a very special guest agreed: Tesla boss Elon Musk jetten for the award of the most important car price in Europe to Berlin.
https://m.bild.de/auto/mobilitaet-reisen-motorrad/mobilitaet-und-mehr/die-besten-autos-preisverleihung-zum-goldenen-lenkrad-65987622,view=amp.bildMobile.html

—-
Quote
# (@investesla)11/12/19, 12:56 PM
It's not started yet, whole event will be streamed in about an hour via autobild.de
https://twitter.com/investesla/status/1194312977966608388
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4338 on: November 12, 2019, 07:51:49 PM »
Tesla Model 3 supplier receives massive order for Model Y parts: report
Quote
Recent reports have suggested that German car spare parts manufacturer ElringKlinger AG has received a massive order of parts for the highly-anticipated Tesla Model Y. The latest order bodes well for the parts manufacturer, as it proves that its components remain viable and competitive even as the auto industry transitions to electric.

The electric car parts order was shared by German motoring publication Automobilwoche, which observed that despite ElringKlinger not mentioning the Tesla Model Y, the company did note that the parts will be for a “leading American electric vehicle manufacturer.” Tesla is pretty much the only company that fits that bill in the United States today.

Details for the parts order are relatively few, though ElringKlinger has stated that the volume is in the “mid-to-high double-digit millions.” In a statement to the publication, CEO Stefan Wolf stated that the order represents a step forward in ElringKlinger’s efforts at remaining a formidable parts supplier in the age of electromobility.
...
The mass production of the electric vehicle parts, described by Automobilwoche as a “cockpit crossbeam,” is expected to begin at the German supplier’s Fremont, CA factory next year. Considering that ElringKlinger is already producing the part for the Tesla Model 3, the new order seems to suggest that the components are intended to be used in the Tesla Model Y crossover.

The recent reports from ElringKlinger bode well for Tesla’s upcoming Model Y ramp. If Tesla is indeed placing massive orders for the upcoming vehicle’s parts, it would suggest that the company is looking to start its Model Y ramp at levels that far exceed that of the Model 3. ...
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-model-y-parts-order-model-3-supplier-report/


Edit:  more/clarification:
Supplier Seems To Confirm Tesla Model Y Production Start In 2020
Quote
”The order will initially run for five years and has a total volume in the mid to high double-digit million euro range. Production at the Californian site in Fremont (USA) is scheduled to start in 2020."

ElringKlinger expects a medium to high double-digit million euro sales volume over the term of the agreement. It's another sign that the Model Y volume is envisioned at a very high level (double-digit billion USD of revenues, we guess).
https://insideevs.com/news/381864/supplier-tesla-model-y-production-2020/amp/
Photos of a similar auto part at the link.
« Last Edit: November 12, 2019, 09:47:43 PM by Sigmetnow »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4339 on: November 12, 2019, 09:07:30 PM »
Bloomberg Tesla Owner Survey, continued

Part IV is finally here: The season finale from the biggest public survey of Tesla owners ever conducted. Today we focus on the future of the Model 3 and the market for electric cars.

First we look at what kinds of cars people are trading in for the Model 3. The gray dots are notable because for so many to jump from a $25k to $50k car is very unusual. After early adopters, will buyers revert to old patterns? Or is Tesla doing what Apple did with the phone: convincing consumers to fundamentally reassess how they value an established product?

BMW is getting hit almost 5 times more than Mercedes. Tesla is becoming America's "ultimate driving machine" for people who love the thrill of the road. Mercedes drivers, on the other hand, tend to value comfort and cachet over vroom …


The entire Twitter thread is brought together here:
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1194306083998883842.html

The Bloomberg article is here:  https://t.co/pza9AsQhzA
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4340 on: November 12, 2019, 09:22:35 PM »
Morten Grove (@mortenlund89) 11/12/19, 3:05 PM
It's been confirmed by @elonmusk: Tesla Gigafactory 4 is going to be located near the Berlin Brandenburg International Airport in Berlin, Germany
https://twitter.com/mortenlund89/status/1194345480810950656

Alex (@alex_avoigt) 11/12/19, 2:55 PM
Announced in Germany at an award event where the Model 3 received a 1st place in its class.
https://twitter.com/alex_avoigt/status/1194343004808646657

Edit: added images below.  Second is from:
https://twitter.com/justpaulinelol/status/1194354391408529410
« Last Edit: November 12, 2019, 10:35:19 PM by Sigmetnow »
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TerryM

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4341 on: November 12, 2019, 10:15:29 PM »
Sig
Any idea what it's class consisted of? Duckduckgo doesn't find anything for today under "Model 3 received a 1st place in its class".

KiwiGriff

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4342 on: November 12, 2019, 11:16:18 PM »
Die Preisträger 2019
Die Hersteller folgender Modelle dürfen sich über die wichtigste Auszeichnung der Branche freuen:
➤ Kleinwagen: Audi A1
➤ Kompaktwagen: BMW 1er
Mittel- und Oberklasse: Tesla Model 3 English:  Middle and upper class:
➤ Kleine SUV: Mazda CX-30
➤ Mittlere SUV: Jaguar I-Pace
➤ Große SUV: Audi e-Tron
➤ Sportwagen: Toyota Supra
➤ Bestes Auto unter 25.000 Euro: Skoda Kamiq
➤ Bestes Auto unter 35.000 Euro: Kia X Ceed
➤ Das schönste Auto: BMW 8er
➤ Beste Innovation: Michelin Uptis Reifen

https://www.bild.de/themen/ereignisse/das-goldene-lenkrad/nachrichten-news-fotos-videos-16981870.bild.html

Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4343 on: November 12, 2019, 11:40:41 PM »
Elon Musk (@elonmusk) 11/12/19, 4:58 PM
Will build batteries, powertrains & vehicles, starting with Model Y
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1194373823912538112

Video of the event:
Die Verleihung des Goldenen Lenkrads 2019: Das sind die besten Autos des Jahres!

The Tesla Model 3 won in the “Mittel-Oberklass” category.  It starts around 40:30 in this video (they switch to English when Musk comes on stage.)  A discussion follows.

Edit:  Unless I’m mistaken, that’s Herbert Diess, CEO of VW Group, that they brought up on stage alongside Musk.  And treated them both as equals.  Significant.

Below: screencap of when Musk made the surprise announcement that Giga4 would be near Berlin. :)
« Last Edit: November 13, 2019, 01:32:05 AM by Sigmetnow »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4344 on: November 13, 2019, 12:44:49 AM »
Tesla beats BMW and Audi in their home turf to capture Midsize Car of the Year award
Quote
With this in mind, the Tesla Model 3 became one of the biggest surprises for this year’s Golden Steering Wheel Awards, beating two of Germany’s most well-loved midsize sedans on their home turf. So strong was the positive reaction to the Tesla Model 3 that the vehicle actually earned some of the highest overall scores in this year’s competition.

The Tesla Model 3 has several awards under its belt, but its win against the BMW 3 Series and the Audi A3 in German soil could be the all-electric sedan’s most important one yet. German vehicles are known for their impeccable quality, after all, and it is very, very rare to see an American automobile dominate two local champions in the awards ceremony. The fact that the Model 3 is all-electric is just icing on the cake.
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-model-3-vs-bmw-3-series-audi-a3-midsize-car-of-the-year-award/
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TerryM

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4345 on: November 13, 2019, 02:21:39 AM »
^^
Yea Only Kia, and Toyota, and Jaguar, and Mazda, and Tesla, were able to win over the German competition this year.


Of the 10 prizes offered for vehicles, 5 were won by the Germans, and 5 by foreign competition. Almost like one prize for everyone that participated. The best car in show & best compact were both won by BMW and Audi also won in 2 categories. Skoda, and the above listed each won in a single category.


See KiwiG's post above.
Terry

Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4346 on: November 13, 2019, 01:36:56 PM »
Because of the Diesel emissions scandal, cars are evaluated on consumption, environmental evaluation and price more strongly than previously. Electric vehicles were evaluated alongside their ICE counterparts this time, rather than in a separate category.  German ICE cars clearly lost points due to this.

“We know that mobility will change how we will drive and what we will drive.”

“Mobility requires freedom”: THE GOLDEN STEERING WHEEL 2019: BILD am SONNTAG and AUTO-BILD award the best cars
Quote
The internationally popular prize was called into life by the publisher Axel Springer in 1976 and is Europe’s most important award for the automobile industry.

In 2018, THE GOLDEN STEERING WHEEL faced a one-off break because of the discussions last year about exhaust gas manipulations; new test classes and assessment criteria have been introduced. In 2019, for the first time, electrical cars will not be assessed separately for THE GOLDEN STEERING WHEEL but will be judged alongside other new vehicles in the same test classes. What is more, assessments will be made in line with a modified AUTO-BILD test cycle which includes consumption, environmental evaluation and price more strongly than previously.


All award-winners of THE GOLDEN STEERING WHEEL 2019
Vehicle classes
      Small: AUDI A 1 Sportback
      Compact: BMW 1 Series
      Mid-size: Tesla Model 3 (eCar)
      Small SUV: Mazda CX-30
      Mid-size SUV: Jaguar I-Pace (eCar)
      Large SUV: Audi e-tron (eCar)
      Sports car: Toyota Supra
      Most attractive car Auto: BMW 8 Series
      Best car under 25,000 euros: Skoda Kamiq
      Best car under 35,000 euros: Kia XCeed
      Best innovation: Michelin airless tires
https://www.axelspringer.com/en/press-releases/mobility-requires-freedom-the-golden-steering-wheel-2019-bild-am-sonntag-and-auto-bild-award-the-best-cars
« Last Edit: November 13, 2019, 02:31:22 PM by Sigmetnow »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4347 on: November 13, 2019, 01:48:31 PM »
Quote
Tesla Daily (@TeslaPodcast) 11/11/19, 4:38 PM
$TSLA short interest for 10/31/19 just published.
Short interest decreased by 5.4M shares from 10/15 (pre-earnings) to 10/31 (post-earnings).

10/31: 31.8M shares
10/15: 37.2M shares
09/30: 36.1M shares
09/15: 38.9M shares
08/30: 39.7M shares

https://twitter.com/teslapodcast/status/1194006397630988289
- This is the sharpest drop in short interest we have seen this year, 91% larger than the previous sharpest drop of ~2.8M shares in mid September. $TSLA
Tesla Daily (@TeslaPodcast) 11/11/19, 6:40 PM
Source: Tesla, Inc. Common Stock (TSLA) Short Interest | Nasdaq
https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/tsla/short-interest
Graph below.

——
Having already surpassed Ford and GM….
Quote
Shelly Fraval (@veganshelly) 11/12/19, 7:23 PM
Tesla within a hair of replacing Daimler as the world's third most valuable auto maker
https://twitter.com/veganshelly/status/1194410534373715968
Data image below.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4348 on: November 13, 2019, 01:53:01 PM »
Quote
Brett Winton (@wintonARK) 11/12/19, 3:54 PM
Per Bloomberg's survey, the Model 3's net promoter score is 91.
For reference, in 2010 as demand was inflecting, the iPhone's net promoter score was 73.
70 or higher is considered world class.
https://twitter.com/wintonark/status/1194357948216041473
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4349 on: November 13, 2019, 02:06:48 PM »
Tesla Autopilot nears 2 billion miles driven, Full-Self Driving continues to improve
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-autopilot-hits-2-billion-miles-full-self-driving/

—— Tesla as Taxi ——
Quote
GAS OFF  (@GasOff2) 11/10/19, 3:27 PM
Went to Tesla Las Vegas yesterday. My Rep said a local Taxi company bought 80 Teslas! No reservations allowed for December, no test drives, no test cars, just concentrating on very high delivery demand for December. Reserve now to take delivery for Dec. for last tax write off.
https://twitter.com/gasoff2/status/1193626219809370112

"As previously reported, Tesla’s vehicles are becoming particularly popular with taxis in the Netherlands, Sweden, and Norway, and are starting to get there in America too with fleets like Columbus Yellow Cab’s."
Tesla Model 3 becomes first electric car approved as NYC yellow cab
https://electrek.co/2019/10/29/tesla-model-3-first-electric-car-approved-nyc-yellow-cab/

Quote
Alex (@alex_avoigt) 11/11/19, 4:33 PM
Have seen several Model S Taxis in Germany but today a first Model X. In Netherlands they are very popular & a Spain Taxi driver I met lately had a Model 3 as a Taxi in reservation
Teslas are THE perfect Taxi vehicles not only cheaper to operate but customer simply love them
...
https://twitter.com/alex_avoigt/status/1194005198592708608
< Cost of use savings?
< Well that's $13,000/yr in gas, probably $15,000/yr after maintenance vs. $3,000/yr if Supercharging, way less if using HPWC.  So yah, $10k/yr more income.
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