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NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4350 on: November 13, 2019, 04:52:09 PM »
It would appear that Tesla has its manufacturing license for Giga3 and the Model 3.

https://electrek.co/2019/11/13/tesla-manufacturing-license-gigafactory-3-production-is-imminent/amp/

Things should start rolling pretty quickly in that case.
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NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4351 on: November 13, 2019, 07:09:45 PM »
At the same time, CNBC is saying something I said earlier in the year.

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2019/11/13/teslas-shanghai-gigafactory-will-boost-margins-morgan-stanley.html

Quote
The factory is expected to reduce labor costs to as low as one-tenth what the electric car manufacturer currently pays in wages at its California factory

And

Quote
Tesla could sell its vehicles at a profit margin in the low-to-mid 30% range, comparable to that of luxury auto manufacturer Porsche,

If I recall, GSY's response was all about the taxes Tesla had committed to and how Tesla was never going to get there.
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philopek

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4352 on: November 13, 2019, 08:22:30 PM »

There was so much slobbering on german media today that it's becoming quite
obvious that they will put a lot of public funds into the project and the hype
and expectations will keep things going for another quarter or two.

It's apparently a kind of ponzi scheme where to goal is to get subsidized as well
as keeping public attention and opinion high.

Only thing that is wondering me a bit is how and why he got the Chinese into the boat,
could be for technology transfer/know-how and the likes.

I'm really looking forward to all the angry and fake-surprised faces once the entire construct
is going to blow up into their faces.

https://www.dw.com/en/brandenburg-happy-to-get-tesla-gigafactory-in-eastern-germany/a-51222973

KiwiGriff

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4353 on: November 13, 2019, 09:33:32 PM »
Quote
the hype and expectations will keep things going for another quarter or two.
I do like it when someone makes a testable projection.
It means we can laugh at them in a quarter or two.
Tesla will Continue to grow the model y will be an even bigger disruptor than the 3 already is.
If you think the big 3 in Germany don't already suck on the governments tit boy have I got news for you.
https://www.handelsblatt.com/today/companies/handelsblatt-exclusive-germanys-pampered-car-industry/23569888.html?ticket=ST-3234695-LfLOk1ZFB2uzbeSCfgo3-ap5
« Last Edit: November 13, 2019, 10:02:30 PM by KiwiGriff »

NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4354 on: November 13, 2019, 11:00:48 PM »

I do like it when someone makes a testable projection.
It means we can laugh at them in a quarter or two.

Except that when we are laughing the next reason that Tesla is a fake is rolled out.

We have had never make M3 in volume
We have had never make a profit
We have had Giga3 will never be built
We have had Giga3 will never produce a single vehicle

As each prediction falls crashing to the ground, another more virulent prediction appears with ever more wild theorising about why Tesla is a fraud.

As Tesla, slowly but surely, climbs into the ranks of global vehicle manufacturer and energy company; it becomes the only possible avenue to call them a fraud.

My calendar has a link to my wait and see target of 1 year with a link to the post which states that we will come back and revisit the state of solar roof v3 then.

I intend to follow up.
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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4355 on: November 13, 2019, 11:59:46 PM »
What day is that, NeilT?
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4356 on: November 14, 2019, 01:03:49 AM »
We have had never make M3 in volume
We have had never make a profit
We have had Giga3 will never be built
We have had Giga3 will never produce a single vehicle

Just made up straw man nonsense.
big time oops

GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4357 on: November 14, 2019, 01:07:07 AM »
Only thing that is wondering me a bit is how and why he got the Chinese into the boat,
could be for technology transfer/know-how and the likes.

Duh. fElon is a perfect asset. Erratic drug-addict CEO "billionaire" with high level government top secret contracts who is financially illiquid! That is like a joke in the "how to recruit an asset" textbook, cuz it is way too perfect and the payoff is way too big.
big time oops

James Lovejoy

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4358 on: November 14, 2019, 03:49:28 AM »
Interesting Quartz article "Electric cars are changing the cost of driving"
https://qz.com/1737145/the-economics-of-driving-seven-teslas-for-2-5-million-miles/?utm_source=pocket-newtab

Their data suggests that for vehicle fleets with high mileage, lower maintenance and depreciation costs could reduce the total cost of ownership to a fraction of that of ICE fleets.

The article spotlighted the experience of Tesloop which has several Teslas approaching 500,000 miles.  The article suggested that once that data is shown to be normal, not an outlier, fleet owners, at least those of high use vehicles, will switch en masse to EVs.  With fleet owners currently buying  12 million vehicles a year in America and Europe, ( https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/us/Documents/consumer-business/us-cp-fleet-leasing-and-management-in-north-america.pdf  page 6), this represents a huge market for EVs.

Tesla could double production, double it again, and still leave plenty of room for the "Tesla Killers".

KiwiGriff

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4359 on: November 14, 2019, 06:15:36 AM »
Quote
As each prediction falls crashing to the ground, another more virulent prediction appears with ever more wild theorising about why Tesla is a fraud.

Yes which only results in more laughter.
Almost as fun as mocking climate change deniers as they escalate the wacko conspiracy's and loony fringe gibbering .

The machine that builds the machine.
The model 3 ramp up was a massive learning curve.
Giga China will have all the learning from the 3 ramp up and then some.
By they time they get to the fit out of giga Germany they would have learnt even more from the china ramp up.

Tesla is focused on improvement.
From the original roadster to the 3 they have been far ahead of the curve
The Bloomberg series should be mandatory reading for the doubters .
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2019-tesla-model-3-survey/
Cost down quality up and the fud dissipating under the force of a million owners selling the product.
Tesla is here to stay .

NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4360 on: November 14, 2019, 09:53:17 AM »
What day is that, NeilT?

Nov 11th 2020.

I took the link to my post so I can avoid the straw man claims...
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NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4361 on: November 14, 2019, 09:57:02 AM »


Duh. fElon is a perfect asset. Erratic drug-addict CEO "billionaire" with high level government top secret contracts who is financially illiquid! That is like a joke in the "how to recruit an asset" textbook, cuz it is way too perfect and the payoff is way too big.

Casual drug use becomes addict and illiquid is presented as insolvent....

I know which of the two positions are more stable..
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gerontocrat

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4362 on: November 14, 2019, 10:34:22 AM »

Tesla is here to stay .
But Musk is going to Mars?
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
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NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4363 on: November 14, 2019, 10:51:16 AM »

Tesla is here to stay .
But Musk is going to Mars?

Only when it is safe to do so....

Then again, is that such a bad thing? Minimal regulations, closer to the resources of the asteroid belt,

Someone like Musk could solve our entire energy and resource issues in a generation.

Given that the population of the planet seems to be determined to get over 10bn we need someone to think out of the box. Musk on Mars will only happen after Spacex uses Starlink to generate billions and Tesla is a major player in energy and vehicles.

Just another thing to sit and watch unfold. I must talk to my friend who was a space operations manager. When I can drag him away from other non space related activities.
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NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4364 on: November 14, 2019, 11:11:10 AM »
Phase 2 progress at gigafactory3

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KiwiGriff

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4365 on: November 14, 2019, 12:28:49 PM »
How do they manage to hold two conflicting ideas at once ?

I am sure most of us know of at at lest one hopelessly addicted pot head.
Permanently demotivated, couch locked, spending their time sitting in  darkened rooms unable to hold a train of thought for more than a few seconds.
At the same time as being the globetrotting COE of  two multi billion dollar fraudulent enterprises ripping of investors, governments and the public ?
The idea you could be both at the same time is not joined up thinking.
 
Disclaimer: No offence intended to casual cannabis users. I smoke cannabis just as I drink alcohol occasionally and when appropriate.  .

be cause

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4366 on: November 14, 2019, 01:04:36 PM »
 .. the only cannabis 'addicts' are those offered addiction therapy OR incarceration . Then , suddenly , everyone's an addict . Elon may be 'f'ed , but he sure is not an addict .   b.c.
 
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 ...

NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4367 on: November 14, 2019, 01:55:31 PM »
Well if this report is correct

https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-gigafactory-3-17k-model-3-production-2019-report/amp/

Then Tesla are going to Ace production this year and deliveries.

If it takes being a genius pothead to do this then we need a few more..

This will also drive profits higher, especially as the batteries have, mainly, been made and stored in a prior quarter.

Then it is time to remember that FCA will start their ZEV credit purchases in Q1 2020, to avoid EU fines.

Some day soon fElon will be just plain old Elon...
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4368 on: November 14, 2019, 02:02:45 PM »
Tesla Critics Don’t Understand (Or Just Ignore) Tesla’s Mission
Quote
Whereas most companies have a clear one-two objective — 1) sell a lot of XYZ, 2) make a lot of money — Tesla has a core, fundamental mission that precedes those and sometimes overrides them: accelerate the transition to sustainable energy.

Some people can write that off as a tagline, but it most definitely is not. Some can say that Tesla now has a simplistic fiduciary duty to its shareholders, but its shareholders have definitely had ample time and opportunity to learn about and digest Tesla’s core mission, so they cannot ignore or deny its primacy. No one should be invested in Tesla without understanding that the company’s #1 goal is to transition society to clean technologies as quickly as possible. Of course, that also means staying in business — speeding up the transition this month to only die next month makes no sense. But it’s important to recognize that there are times when the mission overrides other matters.

I think the place this is most directly evident is with risk. CEO Elon Musk seems to be a risk taker at heart. If he’s not taking risks, he probably feels like something is lacking. Tesla would not accelerate the transition without a hefty helping of risk. Indeed, it is the risk (and cost) of a quick transition that holds traditional automakers back. It is why they sometimes have half-hearted electric offerings, why they didn’t jump into building battery gigafactories when Tesla did, why some of them still stay completely out of the battery production realm, why it takes so long for them to roll out moderately priced long-range EVs — they need mass-market economies of scale for that, and they aren’t willing to bet on that level of consumer demand.

Yes, Tesla financials skated close to the edge for years, but that was never because the company couldn’t easily make a profit if it just decided to do so and slowed down. It skated close to the edge for a reason — the pace is the point. Speeding up the transition is the point. Growing as quickly as possible is the point. Taking difficult risks — because the times call for it — is the point.

When you consider Tesla’s mission, everything Tesla does makes sense. It is not about making a profitable product or two and hitting cruise control. It is about high-speed, palm-sweating Navigate on Autopilot driving you toward revolutionary Full Self Driving and a disruptive tech transition that helps society avoid much more dramatic climate disruption. ...
https://cleantechnica.com/2019/11/13/tesla-critics-dont-understand-or-just-ignore-teslas-mission/

Musk replies:
Quote
Elon Musk (@elonmusk) 11/14/19, 1:02 AM
@cleantechnica True
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1194858080036634624
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4369 on: November 14, 2019, 02:11:46 PM »
Elon Musk’s German Factory Started With Love Letter From Berlin
Quote
After Musk arrived in Berlin, he toured the location where the factory would sit, and he took a local train back to central Berlin to try for himself how long the commute might take.

Fresh from his experience building a factory in China, Musk had a demand that was as clear as it was hard to execute for notoriously bureaucratic Germans: to build the site as swiftly as the one in Shanghai, according to Brandenburg’s economy minister, Joerg Steinbach. That caused considerable consternation among officials still chafing from the new-airport debacle.
...
https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2019-11-13/elon-musk-s-german-factory-started-with-love-letter-from-berlin

[Maybe Musk figures that before the airport is finished, he can persuade them to put in a landing pad for the SpaceX Starship! ;) ]

—-
Tesla’s Elon Musk trades compliments with Volkswagen CEO at Auto Award show
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-elon-musk-compliments-volkswagen-ceo-awards-show-video/

——
Tesla's Gigafactory 4 Berlin: Volkswagen Partnership Coming?


On the Q3 conference call, Musk said Tesla would be willing to share technology:
Quote
George Dailey -- Morgan Stanley -- Analyst
Great. And then, if I could just sneak in one more, so it's been over seven years since you launched the Model S. And many OEMs seem that they don't have the same commitment to battery electric vehicles that you do, and many don't even offer one right now. As your business model proves to be more sustainable, could we potentially see Tesla maybe supplying other OEMs with batteries or software or complete electric vehicle architectures maybe in an effort to accelerate mass adoption of sustainable transport?

Elon R. Musk -- Founder, Chief Executive Officer & Director
Yeah, I think there's -- it would be consistent with the mission of Tesla to help other car companies with electric vehicles on the battery and powertrain front, possibly on other fronts. So it's something we're open to. As a lot of people know, we open sourced our patents so that those would not serve as an obstacle to the adoption of electric vehicles or solar power or stationary storage. And we're definitely open to supplying batteries and powertrains and perhaps other things to other car companies.”

——-
Berlin police don’t kid around! 

Tesla owner gets ICE’d by Ford pickup but soon helped by a Police crane truck
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-owner-helped-by-berlin-police-after-de-iceing-of-ford-truck-from-ev-charging-station/
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Archimid

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4370 on: November 14, 2019, 02:17:28 PM »
To understand Tesla's plans and decisions one must read Tesla's Master plan:

 Part 1 from August 2, 2006

https://www.tesla.com/blog/secret-tesla-motors-master-plan-just-between-you-and-me

Quote
So, in short, the master plan is:

Build sports car
Use that money to build an affordable car
Use that money to build an even more affordable car
While doing above, also provide zero emission electric power generation options



 Part 2 on July 20, 2016

https://www.tesla.com/blog/master-plan-part-deux?redirect=no

Quote
So, in short, Master Plan, Part Deux is:

Create stunning solar roofs with seamlessly integrated battery storage
Expand the electric vehicle product line to address all major segments
Develop a self-driving capability that is 10X safer than manual via massive fleet learning
Enable your car to make money for you when you aren't using it

Like someone once said, maybe Churchill:

Quote
Plans are of little importance, but planning is essential
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4371 on: November 14, 2019, 02:21:00 PM »
...
It's apparently a kind of ponzi scheme ...

You keep using that term.  I do not think it means what you think it means.  ;)

Millions of people have ridden billions of miles in Teslas they own.  And the CEO draws no salary (except the state-mandated one, which he donates to charity) and in fact got no remuneration last year because Tesla did not achieve the milestones required for him to receive any.  He actually paid Tesla back for some transportation, making his Tesla income negative....
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NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4372 on: November 14, 2019, 02:45:46 PM »
The difference between Tesla and a Ponzi scheme is that the Ponzi scheme is the product and new subscribers pay the "Profit" of the older subscribers.

You drive Tesla Product and the profit from that product goes to provide more product. As Tesla sells more cars, it becomes more profitable and the product pays back the original investors whilst providing more cash to make more profit.

Not only is it nothing like a Ponzi scheme, it is, in fact, the opposite.

Those who call Tesla a Ponzi scheme are blinded by their own hatred of Musk.

Tesla is In no way like DMC.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4373 on: November 14, 2019, 03:45:31 PM »

Berlin police don’t kid around! 

Tesla owner gets ICE’d by Ford pickup but soon helped by a Police crane truck

Is that an EV charger I see before me?

And in the background history is carted away.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4374 on: November 14, 2019, 04:18:26 PM »

Berlin police don’t kid around! 

Tesla owner gets ICE’d by Ford pickup but soon helped by a Police crane truck

Is that an EV charger I see before me?

And in the background history is carted away.

Exactly. 

(For those who haven’t seen the term, “ICE’d” means an ICE vehicle parked in an EV charging spot, preventing the EV from charging there.)
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crandles

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4375 on: November 14, 2019, 04:41:20 PM »
Well if this report is correct

https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-gigafactory-3-17k-model-3-production-2019-report/amp/

Then Tesla are going to Ace production this year and deliveries.

Aiming for is not necessarily same as achieving.

Summary of previous quarters for comparison:

Production
Qtr_____Model 3__S/X___Total
Q2 2018 28,578 24,761 53,339
Q3 2018 53,239 26,903 80,142
Q4 2018 61,394 25,161 86,555
Q1 2019 62,950 14,150 77,100
Q2 2019 72,531 14,517 87,048
Q3 2019 79,837 16,318 96,155

Deliveries
Qtr_____Model 3__S/X___Total
Q2 2018 18,440 22,300 40,740
Q3 2018 55,840 27,660 83,500
Q4 2018 63,150 27,550 90,700
Q1 2019 50,900 12,100 63,000
Q2 2019 77,550 17,650 95,200 95,356
Q3 2019 79,600 17,400 97,000

77100 + 87048 + 95155 = 259303
+ 100k US production +17k China production = 376k

is well over 360k but short of 400k. Have been doubtful of 400k for some time and this 400k was dropped in last update. So no surprise there. Feels like there has been some delay from expecting 'ready for production 24 October' to getting production permit 12 Nov, yet the planned production of 17k is apparently "pretty close to a previous estimate".

Either a) the 17k is now optimistic given delay getting permit or b) the time to get permit was expected but despite expecting this Tesla was pushing the optimistic view of ready for production 24 October.

Under a) we should expect less than 17K production. Under b) if Tesla are pushing the positive view then we should be a little skeptical and expect less than 17k.


In addition to the potential difference between 'aiming for' and a realistic expectation, I don't see any reason to change my expectation of 360k-370k.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4376 on: November 14, 2019, 04:57:18 PM »
Quote
In addition to the potential difference between 'aiming for' and a realistic expectation, I don't see any reason to change my expectation of 360k-370k.

I agree 17K for China in Q4 seems optimistic, but I think your 100K estimate for Q4 Fremont production is pessimistic. 8)
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gerontocrat

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4377 on: November 14, 2019, 05:21:44 PM »

Berlin police don’t kid around! 

Tesla owner gets ICE’d by Ford pickup but soon helped by a Police crane truck

Is that an EV charger I see before me?

And in the background history is carted away.

Exactly. 

(For those who haven’t seen the term, “ICE’d” means an ICE vehicle parked in an EV charging spot, preventing the EV from charging there.)
I remember it being a term for being wacked - as in Trotsky with an ice-pick.
or:-
ice - diamonds,
ice - crystal meth,
ice - : to shoot (an ice hockey puck) the length of the rink and beyond the opponents' goal line
ice - U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement or ICE**
ice - Synonyms: Verb :- assure, cinch, ensure, guarantee, guaranty, insure, secure

** lots of people are being ice'd.
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"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
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TerryM

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4378 on: November 14, 2019, 06:41:20 PM »
iced - Can. - 1 The state of electrical lines prior to them being "downed". 2 Vehicles that can't be accessed in typical Canadian winter weather. (see Jan. Feb, Tesla Blog reprts.)
Terry :)

NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4379 on: November 14, 2019, 06:43:46 PM »
Hmmm,

Someone else thinking the way I do.

https://amp.businessinsider.com/german-work-culture-could-cause-trouble-teslas-new-berlin-factory-2019-11

I specialise in EU based international projects.  I was highly surprised that Musk went for Germany.

He will learn though.

Germany is not quite the last place I would choose, in the EU, for an American company to manufacture.

It is, however vying for bottom place.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4380 on: November 14, 2019, 06:48:21 PM »
Quote
** lots of people are being ice'd.

But those others are not being ICE’d.  I.C.E.  Only EV owners versus Internal Combustion Engine vehicles (and, OK, maybe smugglers or immigrants to the U.S.) experience that.  ;)
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4381 on: November 14, 2019, 07:01:16 PM »
german-work-culture

It's not too obvious, what you are implying. Do you think having unions is a bad thing (from a business standpoint)?
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NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4382 on: November 14, 2019, 07:07:21 PM »
german-work-culture

It's not too obvious, what you are implying. Do you think having unions is a bad thing (from a business standpoint)?

Not at all.  What I am getting at is that nothing in Musk's experience has prepared him for working with the German Works Council and the unparalleled power they wield in the workplace.

There are Unions representing people in the workplace and then there are people who like to weild power.

Have a read of the article.

You would have to understand the cultural difference between the hard driving Anglo Saxon (of which I am not one) and the diligent German.

Chalk and cheese, oil and water, however you want to view it, Musk has a learning curve coming up.
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blumenkraft

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4383 on: November 14, 2019, 08:04:46 PM »
Not at all.

I'm glad. :)

Quote
You would have to understand the cultural difference between the hard driving Anglo Saxon (of which I am not one) and the diligent German.

I think i have an idea as a German with an special interest in America. ;)


Quote
Musk has a learning curve coming up.

... which is a good thing! :)
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4384 on: November 14, 2019, 08:25:57 PM »
...
Quote
Musk has a learning curve coming up.

... which is a good thing! :)

In the months (years?) that the European gigafactory arrangements have been worked on, I am quite sure the reality of unions/Work Councils, labor costs, and timelines has been thoroughly discussed and agreed upon by all parties.  That’s what due diligence is all about.  (It does not mean everyone is thrilled with every aspect of the agreement.) 

From the article above:
Quote
Fresh from his experience building a factory in China, Musk had a demand that was as clear as it was hard to execute for notoriously bureaucratic Germans: to build the site as swiftly as the one in Shanghai, according to Brandenburg’s economy minister, Joerg Steinbach. That caused considerable consternation among officials still chafing from the new-airport debacle....
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NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4385 on: November 14, 2019, 08:40:22 PM »
I think i have an idea as a German with an special interest in America. ;)

Then you do understand.  I have a history of delivering American company work in mainland Europe and German company work all over the world. So I see it well.
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NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4386 on: November 14, 2019, 08:55:50 PM »

In the months (years?) that the European gigafactory arrangements have been worked on, I am quite sure the reality of unions/Work Councils, labor costs, and timelines has been thoroughly discussed and agreed upon by all parties. 

That is the problem with being sure about things...

I worked in a German international company.  One manager in Munich decided it would be a good idea to force his staff to sign into instant messaging first thing in the morning with history on and then review their attendance from the records.

Someone complained to the works council. The works council demanded the history feature was turned off.

Now we used that a lot so we campaigned for the manager to be censured and history to remain on.

The works council was adamant and so they turned it off in Germany.

Then some German workers complained that the rest of the world (79 countries), had something they did not. Hoping to get their history back.

The works council demanded to know why their demand had not been met. They were told that they were a German works council and they did not speak for the Unions in the rest of the world who did want this feature for their workers.

Long story short, after a 3 year battle, the history was shut off worldwide.

In this case Musk has NO frigging Idea about the likely outcome.  His personality is gelignite in this scenario.

It is worth reading the article.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4387 on: November 14, 2019, 10:18:57 PM »
Quote
One manager in Munich decided it would be a good idea...

Misk runs a multi-billion-dollar, multi-national company.  Tesla has chief executives from many other countries, and years of experience working with other governments.

Jerome Guillen, Tesla’s President of Automotive, worked for Freightliner Trucks and Daimler AG.  I am sure he knows quite a lot about manufacturing in Europe.  I am sure the lawyers drawing up the contracts are familiar with Work Council antics.

Will there be hiccups along the way?  Of course.  Might Giga Berlin turn out to be a new model that others seek to emulate?  Maybe.  But portraying Musk as uneducated on the ways of Europe is unfounded; Tesla has worked there for years.  When the dock workers at Zeebrugge failed to perform as expected for the Q1 2019 Model 3 international launch, they were instructed to not come back.  Ths is not Tesla’s first rodeo.
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4388 on: November 15, 2019, 12:52:09 AM »
Not simply “an electric pickup truck.”
Quote
Vincent (@vincent13031925) 11/14/19, 4:16 PM
Tesla Registers Cybertruck And CYBRTRK before the unveiling event next week.
https://twitter.com/vincent13031925/status/1195088061211660288

Tesla has already purchased the domain cybrtrk.com, which currently redirects to tesla.com.
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4389 on: November 15, 2019, 01:31:03 AM »
Quote
Ihor Dusaniwsky (@ihors3) 11/13/19, 11:14 AM
Attached are the top ten least profitable shorts, including stock borrow financing costs, from 2016 to 2019
https://twitter.com/ihors3/status/1194649790065336320
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KiwiGriff

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4390 on: November 15, 2019, 04:23:57 AM »
Tesla Regains Consumer Reports Recommendation.
Quote
According to a new announcement by Consumer Reports, Tesla’s Models 3 and Model S regained a recommendation from Consumer Reports. This is due to Tesla’s improved reliability based on the results of the organization’s annual survey.

...snip.
When it comes to “luxury compact cars,” CR’s ratings show that the Model 3 ranks as fifth most reliable. The Model S comes in as the second most reliable out of four “ultra luxury” cars and is predicted to be more reliable than either the Mercedes-Benz S-Class or the Lexus LS.
https://cleantechnica.com/2019/11/14/tesla-regains-consumer-reports-recommendation/
« Last Edit: November 15, 2019, 08:58:13 AM by KiwiGriff »

NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4391 on: November 15, 2019, 06:33:17 AM »
When the dock workers at Zeebrugge failed to perform as expected for the Q1 2019 Model 3 international launch, they were instructed to not come back.  Ths is not Tesla’s first rodeo.

My point was an oversimplification to show a point.  This is also an oversimplification. Too many unknowns in that scenario.

I read about the negotiations Tesla had to do at Grohmann after they purchased it. It was a good solution.  But a full sized car factory selling low margin high volume products is world's away from a limited volume, high value, product whose customers are other businesses.

We shall wait and see.  Tesla wanted "China Speed" for Giga4.  In Shanghai they worked 24x7 for the better part of a year.  We shall see if that is possible in Germany.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4392 on: November 15, 2019, 08:46:29 PM »
Why near Berlin for Giga4? .

Perhaps Musk believes that it will be easier to get things done his way in former East rather than former West Germany. Why?

- Berlin is located in former East Germany. Unemployment rate in Berlin is much higher than in former West Germany.
And....
Source:- https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019/11/06/east-germany-has-narrowed-economic-gap-with-west-germany-since-fall-of-communism-but-still-lags/
- Despite substantial improvements in recent decades, the former East Germany continues to trail the former West Germany on important economic measures ranging from unemployment to productivity, according to an annual German government report on the “status of German unity.”
E.g.....
- Unemployment is persistently higher in the former East Germany than in the former West,
- People in the former East Germany earn less than their counterparts in the former West,
- And almost no major companies have their headquarters in East Germany. Many East German businesses are part of western German or foreign corporations,
- living standards in the former East have not yet caught up with those in the former West,
- People in the former East Germany are also less optimistic than their counterparts in the former West on a variety of measures.

Also the basic German economic engine, based on engineering products, is in trouble due to sluggish world demand / growth in GDP. Those Workers Councils might have be a bit more flexible.
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4393 on: November 15, 2019, 09:58:30 PM »
Other theory:

Germany's car industry is a dying industry. We all know that, and even most industry leaders know it by now.

That's Daimler, VW, BWM, etc.

Not Bosch, ZF, and all the other specialized component supplier though. They will play a big role even in a BEV world. Those are just in the near vicinity. Having a consolidation centre in Germany is a smart move if you plan or maintain multiple factories all over the world. From a logistics standpoint, it's a no-brainer. Why not use even more synergy effects by also using those parts for production nationally.

Other arguments for this area are there is quite a great infrastructure in general (not internet though, sigh)  and other big industries there.

People are well educated.

The area in question was designated to become a car factory long before. BMW wanted to build one, but they eventually chose another location.

The government of Brandenburg is famous for offering industries great perks for locating there (with some great and some disastrous outcomes).
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4394 on: November 15, 2019, 10:31:45 PM »
Other theory:

Germany's car industry is a dying industry. We all know that, and even most industry leaders know it by now.

That's Daimler, VW, BWM, etc.

Not Bosch, ZF, and all the other specialized component supplier though. They will play a big role even in a BEV world. Those are just in the near vicinity. Having a consolidation centre in Germany is a smart move if you plan or maintain multiple factories all over the world. From a logistics standpoint, it's a no-brainer. Why not use even more synergy effects by also using those parts for production nationally.

Other arguments for this area are there is quite a great infrastructure in general (not internet though, sigh)  and other big industries there.

People are well educated.

The area in question was designated to become a car factory long before. BMW wanted to build one, but they eventually chose another location.

The government of Brandenburg is famous for offering industries great perks for locating there (with some great and some disastrous outcomes).
There you are. Nothing like a bit of local knowledge to clear away the clutter.
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4395 on: November 16, 2019, 03:12:51 AM »
Quote
Other arguments for this area are there is quite a great infrastructure in general (not internet though, sigh)...

Not to worry.  SpaceX Starlink satellite internet coming online in the next year or so.  Specifically geared toward underserved internet areas. :)
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4396 on: November 16, 2019, 03:52:15 PM »
Increased prices. Delivery delays.  Model 3 more popular than ever in Germany after Golden Steering Wheel win & Giga Berlin announcement.
Quote
ValueAnalyst (@ValueAnalyst1) 11/15/19, 1:24 PM
With @Tesla pushing Standard Plus *and even Long Range* deliveries to February while increasing Performance price by €5000 in four days, the Model 3 demand in Germany must have surged with this week's Giga Berlin and Golden Steering Wheel Award announcements:

Tesla beats BMW and Audi in their home turf to capture Midsize Car of the Year award
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-model-3-vs-bmw-3-series-audi-a3-midsize-car-of-the-year-award/
https://twitter.com/valueanalyst1/status/1195407196697354242

——
< $tslaq today: “Tesla is building Gigafactories too fast!”

Versus:
Quote
ValueAnalyst (@ValueAnalyst1)m11/14/19, 7:15 AM
How about Giga Beijing? @elonmusk
@Tesla has $5B+ in cash to which it will add $1B *per quarter* with the Model Y
Even the bear analysts at Morgan Stanley admit that Giga Shanghai margins will be "in the low- to mid-30% range"
Let's start multiple Gigas in 2020
https://twitter.com/valueanalyst1/status/1194952007716687872

——- 
Petition:
Stop crippling Tesla Autopilot in Europe
Quote
We are concerned about the future of mobility and autonomous driving. Autonomy is an essential element towards enabling safer traffic, fewer deaths and increased convenience. We fear that current and future regulations (such as ECE/TRANS/WP.29/2016/57 and ECE/TRANS/WP.29/2017/10) will cripple these developments and limit access to Europeans who could benefit from these technologies.

We expect lawmakers to embrace rather than regulate these new technologies and create the right environments for these new developments to thrive. Europe should be setting an example on automotive innovations not stifling them.
https://secure.avaaz.org/en/community_petitions/UNECE_Stop_crippling_Tesla_Autopilot_in_Europe/
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4397 on: November 16, 2019, 04:17:25 PM »
Starlink satellite internet coming online in the next year or so.

Let's see how this works. Looking forward to it. :)
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4398 on: November 16, 2019, 06:35:27 PM »
California says it won’t buy cars from GM, Toyota, others opposing tough tailpipe standards
Quote
Starting immediately, California state agencies will no longer buy gas-powered sedans, officials said Friday. And starting in January, the state will stop purchasing vehicles from carmakers that haven’t agreed to follow California’s clean car rules.

The decision affects General Motors, Fiat Chrysler, Toyota and multiple other automakers that sided with the Trump administration in the ongoing battle over tailpipe pollution rules. The policy will hit General Motors particularly hard; California spent more than $27 million on passenger vehicles from GM-owned Chevrolet in 2018.

California’s Department of General Services, the state’s business manager that oversees vehicle purchases for California’s fleet, announced the bans on Friday afternoon. The immediate ban on state purchases of cars powered only by gas will include exceptions for public safety vehicles.

“The state is finally making the smart move away from internal combustion engine sedans,” California Gov. Gavin Newsom said in a statement emailed to CalMatters. The new policies align with Newsom’s September executive order urging the state government to reduce greenhouse gases. “Carmakers that have chosen to be on the wrong side of history will be on the losing end of California’s buying power,” Newsom said. ...
https://calmatters.org/environment/2019/11/california-says-it-wont-buy-cars-from-gm-toyota-others-opposing-tough-fuel-standards/

Quote
Tesla's fleet sales will grow rapidly in 2020, as decision-makers realize the benefits of all-electric fleets:
Tesla Model 3 vs. Toyota Camry — 5 Year Cost of Ownership Comparisons
https://cleantechnica.com/2019/09/27/tesla-model-3-vs-toyota-camry-5-year-cost-to-own/
https://twitter.com/valueanalyst1/status/1195685843874304000

Quote
Annual fleet sales in the US alone exceed three million units:
Fleet Purchases Rise in 2018; Expected to Increase Marginally in 2019
https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/fleet-purchases-rise-in-2018-expected-to-dip-in-2019/
https://twitter.com/valueanalyst1/status/1195686881909972993
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4399 on: November 16, 2019, 10:06:54 PM »
^^
Sig
That is a big enough story to deserve a thread of it's own.
It shouldn't be fragmented under other headings.


Biggest order of EV's ever.
Fastest switch to new technology ever.
Most disruptive change by a single State ever.


With elections coming next year this isn't going to fade away in the next few weeks.
Terry