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NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4550 on: November 26, 2019, 01:55:19 PM »
It's my story and I'm sticking to it. 8)
Terry

Terry, you might want to do a bit of reading about the truck.  Tesla has been producing more media about this.  The press is typical in reporting it only to challenge it, like the tug of war where it is not like for like (I agree), but it is clear that there is a real product here.

If we have learned anything about Musk over the last decade it is that if he says something he will do it.  It may take years longer than planned (although that is ending), it may take several iterations, but in the end he produces a product and it goes to market.

If this were simply a launch of a fake product, Musk would not be standing up there.  He doesn't do that.

Witness SpaceX.  He has a company with funding and resources which is leading the world.  His company sets speed records then breaks their own speed records.  He stood in front of a mock up of his starship and said this is the future of space travel.  A few weeks later his first model blew the top off the upper tank. 

If anyone thinks SpaceX is not going to complete Starship they are kidding themselves.  The hard work, the Raptor engine, is done.  It is worth reading just how difficult a job the raptor engine was.

Before saying this is all hype, it is worth coming forward with key launches Musk has made where he never intended on following through.

Model 3 was called a fake.
Gigafactory 3 was called a fake
Model Y is called a fake and we have around 7 months to run on that one.
Semi was called a fake yet there are more than one running around the country providing real world stats to bring the product to market.
FSD is called a fake yet we see the incremental evidence of that development every month.  Well if you actually have your eyes open and mind open you do.

Now the cybertruck is called a fake.

I'll come back to that when Model Y launches.  If FSD launches in the interim we can come back to it again.  Also as Solar Roof ramps up sales we can revisit that again too.

There is no need to prove any more today.  Just to wait.
Being right too soon is socially unacceptable.

Robert A. Heinlein

Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4551 on: November 26, 2019, 02:18:17 PM »
Tesla’s Cybertruck is not a bet-the-company vehicle, and it should scare TSLA critics
Quote
... Yet, the monster of a truck that Tesla unveiled starts at a price that’s just slightly above the base price of the Model 3 sedan. There was a reason why gasps could be heard at the vehicle’s unveiling when the Cybertruck’s pricing was revealed. Elon Musk has noted during his interview with Tesla owner-enthusiast Ryan McCaffrey last June that the Cybertruck will start at $49,000 at the most. Absolutely no warning was given that Tesla was going for a far more aggressive starting price, especially considering the vehicle’s built-in tech such as its adaptive suspension and basic Autopilot capabilities.

The fact that the Cybertruck is designed in such a polarizing manner suggests that Tesla has some funding to spare. By releasing such a vehicle, the electric car maker has shown the auto market that it is at a point where it can be bold and take ridiculous risks such as releasing a truck that looks nothing like a conventional pickup. Elon Musk has admitted as much, noting during an appearance at veteran tech journalist Kara Swisher’s Recode Decode podcast that if the Cybertruck were to fail, Tesla will make a more conventional truck. Musk’s words then, spoken over a year ago, rings true today.

“I’m personally super-excited by this pickup truck. It’s something I’ve been wanting to make for a long time. And I’ve been iterating sort of designs with Franz. If there’s only a small number of people that like that truck, I guess we’ll make a more conventional truck in the future. I think this is the kinda thing the consumer would want to buy, even if they don’t normally buy a pickup truck. So, anyway, that’s personally I’m most excited about. But like I said, it could be just like, okay, I weirdly like it and other people don’t. That’s possible. But we’re gonna make it anyway, and then we will just have a niche audience, I don’t know. But if it does, then we’ll make a more conventional pickup truck,” Musk said.
...
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-cybertruck-scares-tsla-shorts/


Rear seat pass-through, storage inside/below the bed….
Top 10 Tesla Cybertruck hidden features you may have missed
https://www.teslarati.com/spacex-falcon-9-rideshare-space-stations-test/

Quote
Elon Musk (@elonmusk) 11/22/19, 1:45 AM
Nobody *expects* the Cybertruck
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1197768038415659008

< Does it allow attachments? Either way I want one!
Elon Musk (@elonmusk) 11/23/19, 2:34 AM
Gonna have some sick attachments
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1198142834294919168

Elon Musk (@elonmusk) 11/22/19, 9:47 AM
Will be an option to add solar power that generates 15 miles per day, possibly more. Would love this to be self-powered. Adding fold out solar wings would generate 30 to 40 miles per day. Avg miles per day in US is 30.

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1197889310550216704
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4552 on: November 26, 2019, 07:14:00 PM »
Could be a crisis for Tesla, but I doubt that it is.  Ship cells or packs in from Nevada while local factories ramp up and the battery/drivetrain section of the Shanghai gigafactory is finished — months?  But a significant diverison in Panasonic’s future.

Panasonic says 'it's up to Tesla' to pick Gigafactory or China batteries - Nikkei Asian Review
Quote
TOKYO -- If Tesla wants a local supply of batteries for its new electric vehicle plant in Shanghai, the U.S. automaker will have to rely on Chinese manufacturers, the head of Panasonic told reporters on Friday.  Panasonic, hitherto the sole supplier of batteries to tycoon Elon Musk's company, has "no plans to produce auto batteries in China," President Kazuhiro Tsuga said.

"It's up to Tesla to decide whether it will use batteries we produce at the Gigafactory [in Nevada] or those made by Chinese companies," Tsuga said.  Tsuga was speaking ahead of a presentation to investors about his Osaka-based company's business plan. Not long ago, that plan centered on a burgeoning partnership with Tesla, as Panasonic looked to shift away from consumer electronics and toward corporate contracts.

Panasonic and Tesla built the $5 billion Gigafactory in Nevada together, launching mass production of batteries in 2017. Musk once described Panasonic's technology as "the best in the world."  But the relationship has grown increasingly strained, partly because profits have been hard to come by.

Nikkei revealed back in April that Panasonic was freezing investment in the Nevada Gigafactory. Though Panasonic and Tesla have not pulled the plug on their partnership, they are both looking to reduce their interdependence.
https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Companies/Panasonic-says-it-s-up-to-Tesla-to-pick-Gigafactory-or-China-batteries
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TerryM

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4553 on: November 26, 2019, 07:22:27 PM »

Sig
Well -
At least it's been scaring some of the investors. ::)
..............
Neil I'm too exhausted to list things like battery exchanges that picked up plenty of subsidy money, but were never ready for prime time.


The coming "pedo" settlement or trial has my attention at present. Lin will be calling Elon to the stand if he doesn't settle, and in California all Unsworthy needs is 3/4 of the jury to win.
Elon's been informed that if he again claims under oath that he wasn't implying that Unsworthy was a pedophile when he referred to him as a "Pedo", that criminal charges would be coming his way.


Exciting bombshells could be exploding by Dec.3 :)
Terry


In the video where the ball is successfully bounced off the window the door actually opens and the window drops a few inches. Elon claims this was shot prior to the public demonstrationdebacle, but it wasn't released until 6 hours later.
Might say something about the quality of the door locks?


Any comments re. the whompy wheel on the rear drivers side? Skirted the paint issues nicely, but as Musk said when announcing his stainless rockets - that stuff is heavy. It bounced hard going over the speed bump (at a snail's pace) when heading into the studio - was that when the wheel cut loose?
No wonder Musk was a little distracted!


Delorean was also enamored of stainless vehicles - hopefully Elon won't follow his lead too closely. :'(  He made pretty cars.

GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4554 on: November 27, 2019, 06:18:37 AM »
Now the cybertruck is called a fake.


"We’re creating this alloy at Tesla. Not a problem to create a lot of it, but we’ll need to come up with new body manufacturing methods, as it can’t be made using standard methods."

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1198704127439560705


Ya it isn't fake. It is made out of a super secret super metal that nobody has ever worked with before. Very exciting. Not total bullshit.


EDIT:

From Luv my TSLA @MyTsla
Tesla is making these trucks out of rare earth alloy called "bullshittium".
big time oops

KiwiGriff

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4555 on: November 27, 2019, 08:59:23 AM »
Eh yes you have to look at what the wackos are coming out with once in a while.

They have no smegin idea at all and don't have the brain capacity to find out .
Just like climate change deniers it means they are living in lala land .

Quote
One of the Tesla Cybertruck’s most striking features is its stainless steel body. The exterior does more than crib the DeLorean DMC-12, too. It provides real durability that Tesla CEO Elon Musk was willing to demonstrate during the truck’s debut last night. A sledgehammer hit to the 3-millimeter-thick stainless-steel door left no dent. But don’t ask about the side windows, though. Motor Trend reports that the Cybertruck will use the same 301 stainless steel Tesla’s sister-company SpaceX will use for its Starship spacecraft.
https://www.motor1.com/news/383980/tesla-cybertruck-stainless-steel-spacex/
Quote
Musk made few major announcements at the event. His talk was largely a technical discussion of the Starship architecture, including an explanation for why the company switched less than a year ago to using a version of stainless steel called type 301 for the structure of the vehicle.
https://spacenews.com/musk-vows-to-accelerate-starship-development/

 301 Stainless Steel Sheet & Coil - AMS 5901

Quote
Type 301 is an austenitic stainless steel with a nominal composition of 17 percent chromium and 7 percent nickel, which provides good strength and ductility when cold worked. It also has excellent corrosion resistance properties. 301 is well suited to welding and forming and drawing.  This high strength grade of steel is available in several conditions or tempers.  United Performance Metals also supplies 301 in its Full Hard, 1/2 Hard and 1/4 Hard conditions.

https://www.upmet.com/products/stainless-steel/301

Bullshite all right GSY .
Its called research wacko. You use Dr google  type in the right question next thing you find out about stuff.
That you are incapable of doing so  means you are gibbering nonsense from ignorance not talking about any actual demonstrable  reality.
This is a science based site for informed people or those who wish to learn,  That you can not even manage to do basic research instead rely on ignorant gibbering tells me you should not really be here .



.

TerryM

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4556 on: November 27, 2019, 10:04:44 AM »
On the flipside, Elon's lawyers, (the team defending him for calling a long married hero of the British Empire a pedophile, publically betting a signed dollar that he was in fact a "baby rapist", and questioning why his victim didn't sue him if he wasn't in fact a "pedo"), announced that Musk will be taken before a jury December 3 rather than settling with the victim.


Vern's legal team will be calling Musk to the stand, and have promised they would be questioning him under oath for at least a full 2 hours.


Musk's earlier deposition is available on line & includes hours of detailed, sworn testimony. Musk will need  an almost photographic memory to avoid the numerous legal traps that were set during the deposition. Skills he didn't appear to possess at the time of that deposition, when on more than one occasion he was reduced to lashing out and attacking his interrogator's personally and his choice of profession, a tactic unlikely to be appreciated by the presiding judge, or the jury.


It's a civil case so only 9 of the 12 jurors need to be convinced of Musk's culpability. The makeup of the jury can't be known at present, but it will be 12 Angelenos unable to avoid jury duty who will be ruling on the guilt or innocence of an immigrant from Apartheid South African who grew up in a luxurious restricted community, largely afforded by proceeds extracted from to a family emerald mine in Zambia. The victim in this case was given a medal by the Queen of England for his heroic actions leading to the rescue of a young Taiwanese soccer team. A rescue whose progress was followed by millions.


Musk's lawyers will probably try to exclude minorities from the jury, but this may be impossible in Los Angeles County. Less affluent unemployed or retirees are said to vie for jury duty as no working hours are lost and the state pays a per diem. Recent racial strife concerning both black and hispanic workers at Musk's New York facility is being publicly discussed, and everyone will be aware of the racial makeup of the rescued soccer team.


This is not a trial about race, but racial prejudices will play a role.


Musk is also a Billionaire, and some salivate at the thought of being in a position where they can lash out at the wealthy elite.
I've no idea at who will determine the size of the penalties if Musk's defense isn't successful.
The legal fees can be ~ accurately assessed, determining a dollar amount to adequately compensate for the victim's present and future humiliation, pain, and loss of stature in the community offers much wider latitude, and whether a punitive fine is called for leaves that door wide open.


My guess is that Musk will lose, should it actually come before a jury, and that the penalties could set records. I've no doubt that Musk will appeal, but in California the entire amount is demanded and held in escrow by the court until the appeal(s) have been heard.


Musk's braggadocio when he scoffingly paid a mere twenty million $ fine levied by the SEC may come back and bite him in his nether region, hard. Especially if Elon's claims of insolvency are true.


Once this act of legal theater has ended there are ~799 more cases waiting in the wings.
Fortunes will be built arising from Elon's legal fees. Other fortunes may be built by those who claim that Musk, or one of his corporations has caused them an actionable injury.


Happy Rubbernecking, this is a slow motion wreck that no one can take their eyes off.
Terry




Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4557 on: November 27, 2019, 07:50:35 PM »
Elon Musk (@elonmusk) 11/26/19, 10:14 PM
250k
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1199526897887195136
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4558 on: November 27, 2019, 08:02:18 PM »
...
 Motor Trend reports that the Cybertruck will use the same 301 stainless steel Tesla’s sister-company SpaceX will use for its Starship spacecraft.


Quote
Everyday Astronaut (@Erdayastronaut) 11/24/19, 3:34 PM
@elonmusk PLEASE tell me we can order a very special edition [of Cybertruck] that has steel from [Starship] MK-1!!! That’d be the ultimate recycling win too

Elon Musk (@elonmusk) 11/24/19, 4:07 PM
@Erdayastronaut Really? Ok sure.
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1198709720212594688
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4559 on: November 27, 2019, 08:16:03 PM »
Quote
Brad (@PrarieMountain) 11/25/19, 11:48 PM
Thursday night my friends (except Dave) were all texting how ugly it was. I’ll admit I was a bit shocked by it. Since then 4 of the same non twitter friends have texted back ;D plus mine plus one person ordered 2. Equals 6 #Tesla #cybertrucks
https://twitter.com/prariemountain/status/1199188110782992385
Images of texts and confirmation screens at the link.

Quote
Vincent (@vincent13031925) 11/26/19, 5:19 PM
When CyberTrucks started to show up on the street, demand will increase 3X

InElonWeTrust (@Inelonwetrust__) 11/26/19, 5:22 PM
Just showed a friend of mine the truck who had previously said she would not drive a Tesla because of the need to charge it. When I showed her the CyberTruck she said she is putting in her deposit.  @elonmusk looks like another one has made the move to an electric future.
https://twitter.com/inelonwetrust__/status/1199453418856730624

John Hanna (@jjhanna2) 11/26/19, 7:48 PM

Once people see them on the street, they will assume they are $100k like a Hummer H2. They will be SHOCKED you can get one for $39,900. :o

Eric-Pierre Menard (@epmenard) 11/26/19, 5:58 PM
Gotta give it to you. When it came out last week and you were all in, I couldn't figure out why. And now I'm the one who's all in, reservation in, and I've never owned a pickup and never dreamed I would.

—-
Quote
Dubai Policeشرطة دبي (@DubaiPoliceHQ) 11/26/19, 12:29 PM
شرطة دبي - 2020 - Dubai Police #CyberTruck
https://twitter.com/dubaipolicehq/status/1199379704266014735
Image below.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4560 on: November 28, 2019, 04:27:58 PM »
Yes, it’s real. 8)

Even more surprising than the cybertruck’s shape is that Tesla managed to keep that shape a mystery right up to the moment of the reveal.  An amazing lack of leaks.

Tesla Cybertruck spotted zipping down a public street in broad daylight
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-cybertruck-first-public-sighting-video/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4561 on: November 28, 2019, 04:39:33 PM »
Giga 4 Berlin Updates

Quote
#Gf4 #Gigafactory4 (@Gf4Tesla) 11/27/19, 4:54 PM
Here is a short summary of the progress #Gigafactory4 since the announcement of Elon Musk on 12.11.2019..
https://twitter.com/gf4tesla/status/1199808687717703681
Short video at the link.

——-
Below are several German articles from Berlin/Brandenburg/Grünheide about the local people’s reaction to news of Giga 4 in their backyard. Via Google Translate.

[The mayor of Grünheide] negotiated the most important deal of his village alone. No one else in the town hall knew anything. "Secrecy was a must," he says, "other sites where something leaked were out immediately."
Seventeen years ago, the site was offered for a new BMW plant, but that one was eventually built in Leipzig.

Tesla is coming! A Brandenburg village is gearing up for the future - BZ Berlin
In Brandenburg, Tesla wants to open a gigafactory in two years. It is the first location of the electric car pioneer in Germany. What does that do to the people and their homeland?

https://translate.googleusercontent.com/translate_c?depth=1&hl=en&rurl=translate.google.com&sl=auto&sp=nmt4&tl=en&u=https://www.bz-berlin.de/berlin/umland/tesla-kommt-ein-brandenburger-dorf-ruestet-sich-fuer-die-zukunft&xid=17259,15700022,15700186,15700190,15700256,15700259,15700262,15700265,15700271,15700283&usg=ALkJrhhc5bMJXQQ1oFGxoGJTpBK8SCVpwQ

https://www.bz-berlin.de/berlin/umland/tesla-kommt-ein-brandenburger-dorf-ruestet-sich-fuer-die-zukunft

   —-
Most of the residents seem pleased that the Tesla factory is coming.  Even, sort of, the hydrogen guy.

This is what the residents of the new Tesla plant say
BMW spurned the region

https://translate.googleusercontent.com/translate_c?depth=1&hl=en&rurl=translate.google.com&sl=auto&sp=nmt4&tl=en&u=https://www.bz-berlin.de/berlin/umland/das-sagen-die-anwohner-des-neuen-tesla-werks&xid=17259,15700022,15700186,15700190,15700256,15700259,15700262,15700265,15700271,15700283&usg=ALkJrhjWVX_sR2JS3tSX3RiC1WvdPfSfLA

https://www.bz-berlin.de/berlin/umland/das-sagen-die-anwohner-des-neuen-tesla-werks

——
But there’s always that one person….   The new environmental minister wants to check the site for “rare animal species.”
Quote
All of Berlin and Brandenburg are looking forward to Tesla's electric car factory - only one man has reservations: Conservation League chief Friedhelm Schmitz-Jersch (72, SPD).

Minister Vogel: "Even in winter, the clearing can begin, then the planning permission follows. When all the documents have been checked, we will celebrate the start of the construction in the spring."

Is this environmental protector Tesla slowing down in Brandenburg?
https://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&sl=auto&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.bz-berlin.de%2Fberlin%2Fumland%2Fbremst-dieser-umweltschuetzer-tesla-in-brandenburg-aus

https://www.bz-berlin.de/berlin/umland/bremst-dieser-umweltschuetzer-tesla-in-brandenburg-aus
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4562 on: November 28, 2019, 08:53:56 PM »
The 2020 Car of the Year Award in Denmark (Årets Bil i Danmark 2020) goes to the TESLA MODEL 3, over all gas and electric competitors.
This is the first time a BEV has won.

Amerikansk elbil bliver årets danske bil | FDM
https://fdm.dk/nyheder/nyt-om-biler/2019-11-amerikansk-elbil-bliver-aarets-danske-bil

——
Norwegians vote Tesla Model 3 their 2020 car of the year
21 Nov 2019
Quote
No doubt the people of Norway love electric cars but Tesla Model 3 has been the most beloved of them all since its first appearance in the country earlier this year — and EV sales graphs have shown record-breaking trends.

In a recent survey by Norway’s large news and automotive website Dinside.no, the people of Norge chose Tesla Model 3 as their favorite car for 2020, Model 3 received an overwhelming 30%+ of the votes (there’s a long list of electric and combustion engine cars currently sold in Norway, this is just amazing). ...
https://www.xautoworld.com/tesla/model3-2020-car-of-the-year/
« Last Edit: November 28, 2019, 09:02:02 PM by Sigmetnow »
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gerontocrat

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4563 on: November 28, 2019, 09:29:42 PM »
Giga 4 Berlin Updates

But there’s always that one person….   The new environmental minister wants to check the site for “rare animal species.”

In the UK "The Great Crested Newt" has put the kybosh on a few development projects in its time.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

TerryM

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4564 on: November 28, 2019, 09:54:43 PM »
We prefered pupfish. Vicious little fellas about half the size of a small sardine, but territorial as hell!


When I was learning to knap stone I was told that the easiest way to halt a project was to save my debitage and dump it where it would be noticed. ::)
Terry

KiwiGriff

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4565 on: November 29, 2019, 12:19:47 AM »
Unfortunately rare animals under threat are a thing .
I found one of these in my back yard   a few weeks ago .
Naultinus_elegans

  DOC has only about 250 recorded sightings  in the wild and it is considered an at risk species due to habitat loss and predation from introduced mammals . Due to their value to reptile keepers overseas poachers have cleared out many remaining populations of our rare gecko  species.
 

Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4566 on: November 29, 2019, 03:51:40 PM »
Quote
ReflexResearch (@ReflexFunds) 11/28/19, 8:09 AM
All Model 3s (SR+, AWD, P) are now sold out until February in all European markets. $TSLA $TSLAQ
https://twitter.com/reflexfunds/status/1200039124016779270

ALL Electric (@A11electric) 11/28/19, 11:28 AM [Virginia]

@ReflexFunds Ordered a #model3 a week ago, they said all holding lots in the US are empty. No #Tesla store have any Model 3 inventory. Car is being built in CA. Our car will be delivered in just two weeks! That’s 3 weeks from order->build->delivery. Very Impressive!

<  Tesla Model 3 is sold out in the U.S. right now except for 1 unit in New Jersey. There are no Model 3 available in Germany, nor Nederlands. ~25 in Norge ~40 in UK. China we don’t know.

Nafnlaus (@enn_nafnlaus) 11/28/19, 9:21 AM 
@Tesla #NoDemand-Thursday: All Tesla models, even the most expensive Performance trim, are entirely sold out in all markets outside North America, China, and New Zealand until February.  #Bankwuptcy
https://twitter.com/enn_nafnlaus/status/1200057170936705026
Image below.
- And this applies to Models S & X too, not just TM3.
Sold out. Sorry. Hope anyone who doesn't have an order yet wasn't in a rush. ;) New SR+ orders have been pushed off to Q1 for most of this quarter. AWD had been being pushed off in major markets like Germany. Now? Everything.
ReflexResearch (@ReflexFunds) 11/28/19, 3:54 PM
Tesla no longer produce to order. They predict demand for each option for each region & ship the cars before later matching to customers. The Feb delivery times show that Tesla has already largely sold out of its Q4 Europe allocation, else you could still custom order to year end

—- Shipping:
11/26/19, 3:57 AM
RCC Europe is now moored at Pier 80 in San Francisco.
Going to load 16th Q4 shipment of Tesla cars.
Destination: unknown.
Quote
Morten Grove (@mortenlund89) 11/28/19, 11:12 AM
Glovis Cosmos now has Amsterdam as its reported destination
ETA: 01:00 UTC 29th November. (tomorrow) pic.twitter.com/31IHiEn7DB
https://twitter.com/mortenlund89/status/1200085043365986305
< What's happening with Neptune? Why does it wait outside?
MG: Both [quays] that Tesla-ships use: 510 and 511, are and have been occupied. 511 by Glovis Cosmos.

—-
Quote
TeslaEVangelist #freeteslatruth (@TeslaDiehardFan) 11/26/19, 8:06 AM
Tesla in Q3 Earnings mentioned that current model 3 capacity as 350K and 90 K S&X i.e 110 K units.
Significantly higher than what they have done in Q3.
US demand also should be higher considering the credits expiry and Q4 Month.
https://twitter.com/tesladiehardfan/status/1199313592790568960
Morten Grove (@mortenlund89) 11/26/19, 8:10 AM
 But what is higher priority:
- Tax hike imminent in Netherlands.
- 1,875$ tax-rebate in US.
My bet is the tax incentives in the Netherlands is a bigger driver of sales than the 1,875$-rebate is.
Less than a month ago: Netherlands had +20,000 Model 3 orders outstanding.

JPR007 (@jpr007) 11/26/19, 8:16 AM
This is looking very much like what was previously emphasized many months ago .
THE GREAT ALLOCATION CHALLENGE
When Demand exceeds Supply, where do you allocate the scarce deliveries for the maximum overall benefit, including multi-quarter considerations ?

——-
So, is this all part of the plan?  Q1 (winter) sales are always sluggish for the industry, and Tesla is no exception. Musk said months ago, “Q1 will be tough.”  But if you have enough orders filed to take all of your production through the quarter, you know exactly what to produce; the only remaining challenge is getting them delivered….
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4567 on: November 29, 2019, 04:06:26 PM »
Jim Cramer has joined the ranks of the converted.
< Jimmy....you’re breaking TSLAQs heart!
Quote
Jim Cramer (@jimcramer) 11/25/19, 8:10 AM
Memo to Tesla owners--you want me to say it will go to $400; I Drove in a new one this weekend, how about $ 4450500 making me high man? Now shut the heck up -- i am now the most bullish person on Wall Street. How's that?

Jordan Rooney (@JordanLRooney) 11/26/19, 7:22 AM
@jimcramer It seems like everyone who drives a Tesla immediately agrees its the best car out there... ever
Jim Cramer (@jimcramer) 11/26/19, 7:24 AM
There is no doubt. My wife test drove the new Lamborghini and tesla compared favorably. Lambo: $450,000

https://twitter.com/jimcramer/status/1199302863287136256

———
Quote
Tesla Daily (@TeslaPodcast) 11/27/19, 5:14 PM
$TSLA short interest for 11/15/19 has been published.
Short interest decreased by 1.2M shares (-4%) from 10/31 to 11/15 while the stock price increased 12%. Next update (post-#Cybertruck) on 12/10.
11/15: 30.6M shares
10/31: 31.8M shares
10/15: 37.2M shares
09/30: 36.1M shares
pic.twitter.com/1TxBrSIxIW
https://twitter.com/teslapodcast/status/1199813747746971648
Graph below.

—-
Quote
Incentives (@incentives101) 11/28/19, 1:22 AM
Sounds like the SEC found what tslaq have been talking about for years....
Nothing.

https://twitter.com/incentives101/status/1199936591457931264
Kiwi Bloke (@HybridEcon) 11/28/19, 6:47 AM
@incentives101 Should be.. “BREAKING NEWS, SEC OPENS INVESTIGATION INTO TESLA ACCOUNTING” followed by “SEC CONCLUDES INVESTIGATION FINDING TESLA FULLY COMPLAINT WITH ALL ACCOUNTING RULES AND LAWS” …

The SEC recently quizzed Tesla about its accounting, filings show
Published: Nov 27, 2019 8:34 pm ET
Quote
In its original letter to Kirkhorn on Sept. 17, SEC staff sought further explanation for Tesla’s changing financial situation, as well as revenue Tesla said it received for third-party sales from acquired companies and its warranty-reserve policy, as disclosed in its 2018 annual report. The regulator also asked for more explanation of how Tesla was accounting for leased automobiles in 2019, after new accounting rules were put in place regarding automobile leases.

In his response to the SEC, Kirkhorn detailed Tesla’s ramped-up production of the Model 3 in 2018 as largely the cause of the change in Tesla’s accounts, focusing on SEC questions about a large increase in the cost of its automobile revenue. Kirkhorn also explained that some companies that Tesla acquired were still selling goods to third parties due to contracts signed before Tesla purchased the companies.
Kirkhorn’s response to questions about warranty reserves and lease accounting largely defended Tesla’s approach as being within accounting guidelines. Little substantial appeared to be disclosed beyond what already appeared in Tesla’s SEC filings that spurred the questions. On Oct. 28, the SEC closed its review.
https://www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/guid/4C23268C-1177-11EA-B09C-585249FB1330

—-
Quote
ValueAnalyst (@ValueAnalyst1) 11/27/19, 4:07 PM
#TeslaKillerCemetery "Automakers struggling to clear inventory of older models from U.S. dealerships probably will offer richer discounts to consumers this month than ever before," just as the demand for @Tesla rises, and its prices and profitability improve across the world...
https://twitter.com/valueanalyst1/status/1199796937538576386
Graph below.

Bloomberg article: https://t.co/7QDVV7glnF
Automakers Dangle Record $4,5000 Discounts to Clear Old Inventory
Meanwhile, 250k+ orders were placed for the #cybertruck….
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4568 on: November 29, 2019, 04:29:22 PM »
Quote
Sofiaan Fraval (@Sofiaan) 11/27/19, 10:37 PM
My wife @veganshelly stopped by the San Luis Obispo #Tesla #Supercharger and got the scoop on the new mobile #megapack! It’s a bank of urban chargers on wheels! Also #V3 coming soon, like I suspected!!!
https://twitter.com/sofiaan/status/1199895143702089728
1 min on-scene “interview” at the link. “We’ll take it, charge it, and bring it back.”
Tesla deploys Megapack-powered Mobile Superchargers for the holidays
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-deploys-mobile-supercharger-megapack/

—-
Quote
Vincent (@vincent13031925) 11/28/19, 8:14 PM
Waiting long line here in @AriaLV for Thanksgiving dinner buffet with family, heard ppl talk about #CyberTruck around me, interesting
https://twitter.com/vincent13031925/status/1200221387685687296
Pic of wait line in restaurant at the link.

Boca Chica Mark Watney (@MarkChica) 11/28/19, 8:57 PM
 The Cybertruck has definitely reached out into the mainstream, Ive seen it firsthand. People I know that never knew a thing about EVs, when I told them I reserved a “pretty controversial” vehicle, they all have said “oh that new Tesla truck?”. People are talking.
- I’ve talked to 3 people so far that already knew about Cybertruck and thought it was ugly, but after explaining its features and how economical it is, 1 has reserved and the other 2 are genuinely interested. It’s an easy product to sell, Tesla is going to sell millions of these!

Who Is *Actually* Going To Buy A Tesla Cybertruck?
November 28th, 2019
Quote
Robotaxi & RoboXYZ operators — Rahul Sonnad of Tesla made a strong case for why the Cybertruck is the ultimate robotaxi. Short summary: it’s got a ton of cargo space, has seating for 6, is super durable, looks fine even if it does get dings and scratches, is bullet proof (to some degree), has great visibility, is very easy to spot, is a Tesla (many great networking and connectivity benefits). Aside from robotaxi service, the Cybertruck can be used in what I’m calling roboXYZ services — things like package delivery or shuttle services.
Oh yeah, note that if you put $100 in for a preorder now and select the Full Self Driving option, you lock in the $7,000 price for that. The price of Full Self Driving is expected to go up significantly, so locking in that presumably low price for just a $100 preorder deposit seems wise. That’s the core reason I put in $100 and may put in a couple hundred dollars more.

You may notice that the team that designed and developed the CYBRTRK is on the younger side of average human lifespans (see pic below). Perhaps they just decided to design something for their generation rather than for the neighborhood Boomer’s. (Side note: I find it interesting that, barely being a Millennial, I barely got around to putting my order in within one week of the reveal.) Of course, Elon, as a meme lord, is naturally hip with the young hipsters and has the perfect taste for this demographic.

Blue-collar workers of all sorts…
...
Soccer moms/dads...
My favorite:
Quote
Greenies who want revenge — I’m not sure if this is a big thing, but it’s got to be something. Prius buyers, many of whom have happily switched to Teslas, were the butt of many jokes for years. Tesla drivers occasionally get “ICE’d” by pickup truck drivers at Superchargers, and get rolled with coal. Non-Tesla EV drivers routinely get ICE’d at public charging stations by people who just don’t care about their needs. Some of these greenies are fed up. Having the street’s most intimidating and durable vehicle is quite appealing. No more getting pushed around, bullies, I’m Spider-Man! Will this actually compel some sales? Certainly! Remember, many consumer purchases, and definitely vehicle purchases, are guided heavily by emotions and identity. …
https://cleantechnica.com/2019/11/28/who-is-actually-going-to-buy-a-tesla-cybertruck/

——
Quote
The Walking Dead (@TheWalkingDead) 11/22/19, 7:24 PM
Joke all you want, but this @Tesla truck would be sick in a zombie apocalypse

Elon Musk (@elonmusk) 11/27/19, 11:05 AM
@TheWalkingDead @Tesla The finest in apocalypse protection technology! Flamethrower optional.
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1199720951899811841—-

Quote
Rome Strach (@romn8tr) 11/27/19, 2:01 PM
Guys!! GUYS!! My Tesla is pregnant?!! We can’t wait!!
#TeslaSonagram
https://twitter.com/romn8tr/status/1199765296862547968
Photo below. ;D
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4569 on: November 29, 2019, 04:44:21 PM »
Giga Stuff

The start of Muddy Field #2!
Quote
#Gf4 #Gigafactory4 (@Gf4Tesla) 11/28/19, 2:18 PM
this caterpillar. prepared the area for the groundbreaking ceremony..
https://twitter.com/gf4tesla/status/1200131911932432384
Photo below.

Quote
#Gf4 #Gigafactory4 (@Gf4Tesla) 11/28/19, 3:20 PM
I filmed the forest. this is how much of the forest looks like….
https://twitter.com/gf4tesla/status/1200147351719096323
23-sec vid:  moving down the forest path.

—-
Quote
ReflexResearch (@ReflexFunds) 11/28/19, 7:58 PM
In Panasonic's investor day last Friday they appear to suggest Q4 GF1 cell production is up around 20% vs Q3. Looks promising for Q4 Model 3 production!https://twitter.com/reflexfunds/status/1200217529559506944
- (Note that Panasonic's reporting year finishes in March so 3QE is Tesla's Q4.)
Graph below.

Rumors/speculation:
Quote
JPR007 (@jpr007) 11/28/19, 4:24 PM
Elon Musk en route to Tokyo ?
https://twitter.com/jpr007/status/1200163534199373824
ReflexResearch (@ReflexFunds) 11/28/19, 4:29 PM
@jpr007 Now would be a great time to buy Panasonic's GF1 business. It would far simplify rollout of Tesla's in-house cell manufacturing - less potential IP conflicts and a US workforce of experienced cell manufacturing staff.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4570 on: November 30, 2019, 01:57:18 PM »
IRONY ALERT:  GM has a plant in the city, currently manufacturing the Chevrolet Trax, Chevrolet Equinox and GMC Terrain crossover vehicles. (Per Wikipedia.)

The Mayor of San Luis Potosí, Mexico has ordered 15 cybertrucks for the state.
He said they will save millions of pesos in maintenance and gas savings for the taxpayers.
The order will increase to 45 cybertrucks in the future, to be used for police enforcement, garbage collection and water utility.

Photo below.

Mayor of San Luis Potosí buys 15 Tesla Cybertruck trucks
"The important thing is that regardless of whether the cost can be a little high, the benefit is recoverable because if you do not put maintenance on it and you do not put fuel on it, in one year you can save 24 million [pesos] and already paid more than the half of the investment.”
Quote
“What we are looking for is torque to be able to pull water pipes, garbage trailers. They would have double or triple the load of a normal truck, ” explained Esper Cárdenas.
https://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&sl=es&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fblogdelregio.com%2F2019%2F11%2Falcalde-de-san-luis-potosi-compra-15-camionetas-cybertruck-de-tesla%2F

Alcalde de San Luis Potosí compra 15 camionetas Cybertruck de Tesla
https://blogdelregio.com/2019/11/alcalde-de-san-luis-potosi-compra-15-camionetas-cybertruck-de-tesla/

H/t:  (@ElonsWorld) 11/29/19, 11:18 AM
https://twitter.com/elonsworld/status/1200449083388940288



————
Only one? ;) ;D

Tesla Cybertruck gets high-profile order from Norwegian Justice Minister
Quote
In a recent Facebook post, the Norwegian Justice Minister announced that he has personally placed an order for the Cybertruck [for himself/his family].

 Kallmyr, for one, stated that the Cybertruck would be a good police vehicle. “The future is probably electric cars… In the future, I think the police will probably drive electric cars,” he said.

One thing that truly shines with the Cybertruck is its price, which starts at just $39,990. For a price that’s just slightly higher than the Tesla Model 3, buyers could get a large vehicle that’s practically armored and capable of traveling long distances. But beyond this, the Cybertruck also has a very low cost of ownership, thanks to its all-electric design, which requires very little maintenance, as well as its recharging costs, which are only a fraction of the price owners pay to refuel their internal-combustion trucks. ...
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-cybertruck-gets-high-profile-order-from-norwegian-justice-minister/
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GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4571 on: November 30, 2019, 03:02:16 PM »
Bullshite all right GSY .
Its called research wacko. You use Dr google  type in the right question next thing you find out about stuff.
That you are incapable of doing so  means you are gibbering nonsense from ignorance not talking about any actual demonstrable  reality.
This is a science based site for informed people or those who wish to learn,  That you can not even manage to do basic research instead rely on ignorant gibbering tells me you should not really be here .

Oh, I should have research fElon's "new alloy"? What would I find out about bullshitium? Is it made from Martian minerals? Is it 10x hard than normal metals? 10x stronger? 10x sexier?

Researching fElon's absurd claims is a hobby for simpletons. A smart person can just point and laugh.
big time oops

Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4572 on: November 30, 2019, 04:13:41 PM »
The author of the article below tweeted:
Quote
John Voelcker (@johnvoelcker) 11/29/19, 4:11 PM
Ford loses money on every EV. Tesla has lost billions if dollars since 2004. Ford know what the future holds, but Tesla shareholders allow that company far more more leeway than Ford owners do--they want profits every quarter. Tesla does not have that burden.
https://twitter.com/johnvoelcker/status/1200522807249195009

How many Mustang Mach-E electric SUVs will Ford build? We’ve got numbers
Joe Hinrichs, Ford president of automotive, speaking at a Ford reception two nights after the car’s global launch event. Hinrichs claimed Ford would produce about 50,000 Mustang Mach-E EVs in the first year of production.
That limitation, Hinrichs explained, was “because of battery availability.” ...

https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1126230_how-many-mustang-mach-e-electric-suvs-will-ford-build-we-ve-got-numbers


Quote
Montana Septic (@MontanaSeptic) 11/29/19, 3:05 PM
VW has about $211B in long term debt. Toyota has about $185B in long term debt. Ford has about $154B in long term debt. GM has about $100B + unpaid bailout loan of $14B. Daimler $106B in debt. BMW $127B in debt. Tsla only has $13B in long term debt.
https://twitter.com/montanaseptic/status/1200506107627802624

RandySustainableMeat (@RandyVegetables) 11/29/19, 3:26 PM
So the other OEMs have more debt than they are worth and their assets will soon be worthless. Ergo, those companies are all worthless. Tesla is the only company that is growing and has growing margins, and greatest efficiencies and best cars. I like those odds.
W.R. German (@WRGerman) 11/29/19, 4:01 PM
Of course, VW's figures include some €40B in pension plan obligations not met because they had to pay fines for DieselGate. Merkel will bail them out, Geely will bail out @Daimler, but that leaves @BMW holding the bag, unless the Bavarian state government rescues them.
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Archimid

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4573 on: December 01, 2019, 02:05:25 PM »
It seems to me that the Cybertruck is as close as anyone can get to a box on wheels. It's got me hypnotized.

 I have never liked trucks. I find them cumbersome, difficult to drive and park, slow and worst of all, inefficient. I hated trucks for the same reason I love Neven's car. Efficiency is inherently beautiful to me. Inefficiency is inherently ugly.

The design of this truck has so many synergies that I find it irresistible. It is efficient in multiple levels from manufacturing, to materials, to the shape. It is still a truck, thus inherently inefficient when used for personal transportation, but in so many other levels is so efficient that I can't help but love it.

If this stainless steel box on wheels has a million-mile powertrain it could very well be the last vehicle anyone purchases in their lives. Talk about sustainability.  Build it once, made out of one of the most commonly used durable materials on Earth and have a whole generation use it. All while not emitting.

We have to get off the road millions of high polluting trucks. Governments will never make it happen. Two things can make them go away, competition from a better alternative or climate change.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

Neven

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4574 on: December 01, 2019, 02:35:01 PM »
I had a dream last night that Tesla had decided to build small city cars, MPVs for 12-14 people and family cars...

Still, I agree with Archimid. The Cybertruck looks like the most environmentally-friendly Tesla car yet, but it's so big and heavy... And still too expensive.

For me personally, there still isn't an electric car that really suits my family's needs, and it looks like Sono Motors will never build the Sion. But we're really happy with our i-MiEV. I'm driving too much anyway with our Opel Combo CNG due to my father's demise. I hope I can make up for it sometime soon...
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4575 on: December 01, 2019, 02:47:06 PM »
For those not up to speed, Jim Cramer is a very loud anti-Tesla analyst who has been denigrating Tesla for years on the perennially anti-Tesla CNBC (business news) network.  His recent complete reversal of attitude has shocked his co-hosts and his fans.
Quote
Lars Brenna (@larsbrenna) 11/29/19, 4:25 PM
I think we just reached some sort of turning point for @Tesla when @jimcramer declares he is buying a Tesla!

Jim Cramer (@jimcramer) 11/29/19, 6:32 PM
Best car.... balance sheet being fixed...Hard not to side with @elonmusk  Wife investigated nearby charging stations this week

https://twitter.com/jimcramer/status/1200558211327242240
My two daughters say: “It’s about time.”  What can I do?  Just continually look at the balance sheet?  I can’t fight this any more.  “I rode in two this weekend.  I give up; the car’s too damn great.”  If everybody in my family wants one, I’m done.  I can’t fight this!

Jim Cramer on Tesla: I know my wife wants to buy a Model X - YouTube



——

Three years ago, the Model 3 didn't even exist.
Today in California, the Tesla Model 3 Is Outselling America's Most Popular Car, the Toyota Camry:

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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4576 on: December 01, 2019, 02:53:22 PM »
Auto expert dubs Tesla Cybertruck as Elon Musk’s boldest, greatest creation yet
Quote
Rickard argued that with the Cybertruck, Tesla has effectively gone for the pickup market’s jugular by releasing a vehicle that is competitive in cost but exceeding its rivals in terms of toughness and durability, power, spaciousness, and off-road capability. With this particular combination in mind, Rickard noted that he believes the Cybertruck would be “astonishingly successful.”

In conclusion, the auto expert noted that some time from now, Tesla Chief Designer Franz von Holfhausen would probably be inducted into the design hall of fame for actually pulling off an XY design. As for CEO Elon Musk, this may be his most brilliant vehicle yet.
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-cybertruck-features-design-auto-expert-defense/

——-
Quote
ValueAnalyst (@ValueAnalyst1) 11/30/19, 4:28 PM
"Based on remaining production capacity and logistics timing, we recommend that customers in the continental US place their orders by December 8th to take delivery by 12/31."
tesla.com/model3/design#…
https://twitter.com/valueanalyst1/status/1200889347433648130


ValueAnalyst (@ValueAnalyst1) 11/30/19, 1:12 PM

Model Y unveil in Mar'19 likely contributed to then-record S3X deliveries in Q2'19.
I wonder what impact the Cybertruck unveil had on S3XY order rates in Q4'19...

ValueAnalyst (@ValueAnalyst1) 11/30/19, 1:20 PM
Check out the difference between the search interest in "Tesla" following the Model Y [March 2019] and Cybertruck events:
https://twitter.com/valueanalyst1/status/1200842010673872896
VA: The above data is interesting, especially because the U.S. crossover segment is 2.5x larger than the pickup segment:
Graphs below.
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NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4577 on: December 02, 2019, 07:05:27 PM »
I see that Tesla is reaching towards 200 cars manufactured at Giga3.  Yet deliveries are still slated for Q1 2020.

It makes me wonder if Tesla have worked out that its last chance at YoY triple digit growth lies in Q1 2020.  Due to the very low numbers in Q1 2019.

A modest profit in Q4 with very near guidance deliveries for Q4, followed by wildly successful Q1 with incredible numbers, could precede a battery and drive train investors day followed by a round of funding to launch the Maxwell technology.

Of course Solar Roof is a virtual unknown right now as everyone is ignoring it to focus on other, more interesting, issues.

To me that would be far more appealing than blowing it out of the park in Q4 2019, just to have that compared to a lackluster Q1 2020.
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crandles

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4578 on: December 02, 2019, 08:17:48 PM »
I see that Tesla is reaching towards 200 cars manufactured at Giga3.  Yet deliveries are still slated for Q1 2020.

Isn't that because they have manufacturing permit but not yet a sales permit?

Reaching towards 200??? Still confident of 17k this year you mentioned back on Nov 14?


Well if this report is correct

https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-gigafactory-3-17k-model-3-production-2019-report/amp/

Then Tesla are going to Ace production this year and deliveries.

If it takes being a genius pothead to do this then we need a few more..

This will also drive profits higher, especially as the batteries have, mainly, been made and stored in a prior quarter.

Then it is time to remember that FCA will start their ZEV credit purchases in Q1 2020, to avoid EU fines.

Some day soon fElon will be just plain old Elon...

GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4579 on: December 03, 2019, 01:12:46 AM »
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/tesla-sells-more-products-it-doesnt-yet-make-products-it-does

Meanwhile, here are TSLA’s current cars/products not in production:

-Roadster (unveil was 2yrs ago)
-Semi (unveil was 2yrs ago)
-Model Y (TSLA refuses to mention how many pre-orders they’ve received here)
-Cybertruck ($100 fully-refundable deposits on a car that will likely cost $60K, or  0.167%, is the equivalent of someone putting $1.67 toward an $1,000 i-Phone & apple calling it an order)
-ATV
-FSD (to be FSD, TSLA would have had to achieve level 5 autonomy… they’re at level 2)
big time oops

GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4580 on: December 03, 2019, 01:15:26 AM »
Note for those interested in the cybertruck:


The cybertruck will never exist. The design does not make sense. Engineers were reportedly given 2 weeks to whip something up.

If it ever was built as show and sold, the cost would be about double the claimed $40k.

The components to make a truck a truck are heavy. In order to move those heavy components around takes a lot of battery power. (Significantly more power than moving a S or X). The basic truck component cost and battery cost would make the cybertruck cost at least $60k to build.
big time oops

NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4581 on: December 03, 2019, 01:39:44 AM »

Reaching towards 200??? Still confident of 17k this year you mentioned back on Nov 14?

As I note from your repost, I linked someone else's estimate of 17k.  Personally I think Tesla will still do well in terms of the estimates.  However time rolling on with Giga3 leads me to believe that Tesla are better off using China pent up demand to smooth out the Q1 slump.

Yes they still need the license to sell, but all evidence points to the fact that they never targeted significant deliveries in 2019.

I am wondering how much that has to do with the components and the difference between assembled and manufactured.
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Rob Dekker

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4582 on: December 03, 2019, 09:34:09 AM »
The cybertruck will never exist.

Do you want to bet ?

Quote
The design does not make sense.

Actually it makes perfect sense.
Watch this guy explain it to you :



Quote
If it ever was built as show and sold, the cost would be about double the claimed $40k.

The components to make a truck a truck are heavy. In order to move those heavy components around takes a lot of battery power. (Significantly more power than moving a S or X). The basic truck component cost and battery cost would make the cybertruck cost at least $60k to build.

OK dude. Please make up your mind : Is it "double the claimed $40k" ? Or is it "at least $60k" ?

Either way, show us your math on why Tesla cannot possibly offer this truck for $40k.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4583 on: December 03, 2019, 03:54:29 PM »
Quote
The design does not make sense.

Actually it makes perfect sense.
Watch this guy explain it to you :
...

The wheels hated by the guy in the video may provide a significant aerodynamic effect.
Quote
Elon Musk (@elonmusk) 11/30/19, 10:16 PM
With extreme effort, Cybertruck might hit a 0.30 drag coefficient, which would be insane for a truck. Requires tweaking many small details. en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Automobil…
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1200976907417702400

Tom Randall (@tsrandall) 11/30/19, 11:53 PM
It would be impressive if the Cybertruck even came close to this target. For context, the slipperiest pickup today is the Ram 1500 at 0.36. A Cd of 0.30 would be Toyota Corolla territory
https://twitter.com/tsrandall/status/1201001347308564481

Everyday Astronaut (@Erdayastronaut) 11/30/19, 10:36 PM
It’d be safe to assume you can’t lower the drag coefficient without changing the overall shape a fair amount though, right? That flat back and flat nose can’t be great for aerodynamics
Elon Musk (@elonmusk) 12/1/19, 1:37 AM
Overall shape is good for low drag coefficient. Matters a lot exactly how you trip airflow at edges & guide air around wheels, like an invisible sculpture.
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1201027408221966337

Tesla Cybertruck: Elon Musk sets ‘insane’ target for drag coefficient
https://www.inverse.com/article/61359-tesla-cybertruck-drag-coefficient

And the flat, super-strength steel eliminates many steps in stamping and painting, which will make the cybertruck much cheaper to manufacture:
Quote
Unlike Tesla’s other vehicles like the Model S, X, and Model 3, the Cybertruck uses an exoskeleton that is made from a new variant of 3000 series stainless steel that’s cold-worked several times. The material is tough and is not unlike the steel used in SpaceX’s gigantic Starship. With this system in place, Tesla is able to skip the traditional stamping process for the vehicle’s body panels. Instead, the Cybertruck’s frame will be laser cut and folded, much like an origami that’s made of steel.

And just like actual Japanese origami, the Cybertruck’s stainless steel body is actually folded into shape instead of being cut up into several pieces and stamped multiple times by massive machines, according to an exclusive look into the vehicle by MotorTrend. Considering that the stamping process is very capital intensive (stamping machines are among the largest and most expensive components of a car factory), Tesla’s origami-style design for the Cybertruck becomes a very cost-effective way to produce a massive, durable, futuristic vehicle at relatively low cost.

Elon Musk recently elaborated on this in a recent tweet, stating that the Cybertruck’s 3mm-thick stainless steel exoskeleton is not very friendly to stamping machines. “Reason Cybertruck is so planar is that you can’t stamp ultra-hard 30X steel, because it breaks the stamping press,” Musk wrote. 

Quote
Elon Musk (@elonmusk)11/24/19, 3:31 PM
Reason Cybertruck is so planar is that you can’t stamp ultra-hard 30X steel, because it breaks the stamping press
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1198700591465156608
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-cybertrucks-simple-design-goes-way-deeper-than-you-think/
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philopek

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4584 on: December 03, 2019, 04:18:42 PM »
The cybertruck will never exist.

Do you want to bet ?

Quote
The design does not make sense.

Actually it makes perfect sense.
Watch this guy explain it to you :



Quote
If it ever was built as show and sold, the cost would be about double the claimed $40k.

The components to make a truck a truck are heavy. In order to move those heavy components around takes a lot of battery power. (Significantly more power than moving a S or X). The basic truck component cost and battery cost would make the cybertruck cost at least $60k to build.

OK dude. Please make up your mind : Is it "double the claimed $40k" ? Or is it "at least $60k" ?

Either way, show us your math on why Tesla cannot possibly offer this truck for $40k.



Like so often, what GSY is trying to convey is 99% correct (because 100% doesn't exist as long unknowns are involved) and your reply contains nothing substantial to proof or justify any contrary point of view or conclusion.

You want to bet, I will bet with you if you want, just doubt that you can bet enought that it will bring me something to win and that you're reeady to bet sufficiently hight that it will really hurt you and make you think before making such biased unsubtantial statements.

And the we would have to agree on which part of his post you wanna bet because some of the thing he wrote are simple facts and there is nothing to bet on proven facts.

This thread is such an eye opener. Many posters here follow the exact pattern of climate change deniers. No matter what you say, no matter how much logic and/or facts and/or proof you name, they will always counter with either non-sense, putting the messenger with the bad news into the corner to be a bad guy or asking aggressive questions that they know cannot be answered even though they're obvious but lay in the future and hence one has to wait till things have unfolded.
« Last Edit: December 03, 2019, 10:17:50 PM by philopek »

NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4585 on: December 03, 2019, 06:33:30 PM »
The problem with the posts from GSY is not that he doesn't have some quite valid points, it is that he uses those valid points to head off into rocket propelled fantasy land then makes predictions which are never going to come true.

All the posts are coloured with so much hatred of Musk that they cannot be taken seriously.

The Model3 was never going to be built, according to GSY.  Then it was never going to be made in volume.  Then it was never going to make a profit.  Then Tesla was going bust.  Gigafactory 3 was never going to be built.  Then it would not produce a single car before the end of 2020.

Based on these predictions, what would you do?

Well personally I'll wait till Q3/4 2020 to add the model Y production to the list of never happening. The orders for parts from their suppliers are in and they are 6 months ahead of guidance.

In the interim I'll expect more profits, increasing Solar Roof sales, growing insurance revenues and some more Semi's to appear.

Somewhere around 2021 I expect FSD to mature to level 4 autonomy.

The only thing I do not expect to happen is that GSY is right.

Compare the track records of Tesla commitments and GSY predictions.  I do not feel I am on a losing streak.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4586 on: December 03, 2019, 07:53:01 PM »
I googled for Tesla Solar Roof with the option "News".

What a load of crap opinion with no data or evidence until I found..

https://cleantechnica.com/2019/12/01/tesla-is-hiring-solarglass-installers-across-the-us-in-support-of-version-3-launch/
« Last Edit: December 04, 2019, 09:28:00 AM by gerontocrat »
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4587 on: December 03, 2019, 09:56:27 PM »
You missed the article about Tesla opening up in Israel last month for Solar??
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4588 on: December 03, 2019, 11:55:38 PM »
GSY may be right or wrong. I don’t know. But his tone is so rabid that I am forced to consider his objections to Tesla to be tainted in their credibility.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4589 on: December 04, 2019, 04:16:28 AM »
Quote
James Stephenson (@ICannot_Enough) 12/2/19, 1:19 PM
Current Altman z-scores, per gurufocus.com, selected automakers:
*higher is better*

1.91 Tesla
1.84 Honda
  (financial distress zone is any score below 1.81)
1.77 Toyota
1.38 Nissan
1.35 Fiat Chrysler
1.14 Volkswagen
1.09 Daimler
1.09 GM
0.95 Ford
0.79 BMW
-4.36 NIO
https://twitter.com/icannot_enough/status/1201566458586836992

- Altman z-score is a weighted measure of financial strength based on ratios between financial metrics like revenue, earnings, assets, liabilities, and working capital.

Caveat emptor: it does not apply to financial companies (automaker lending artificially lowers their score).

3.25 Geely (Volvo)
2.83 Suzuki
1.25 Hyundai/Kia
0.79 Renault
0.75 Tata (Jaguar/Land Rover)
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GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4590 on: December 04, 2019, 04:50:09 PM »
The Model3 was never going to be built, according to GSY. 

Lie, lie, lie, lie, lie. Just a total lie.

Then it was never going to be made in volume. 

Lie, lie, lie, lie, lie. Just a total lie.

Then it was never going to make a profit.

Tesla best 4 Qs in a row in the last 5 year resulted in a $330,000,000 LOSS. Average is about a billion dollar a year loss. Tesla doesn't make profits.

Then Tesla was going bust.

Tesla is going bust. They burn cash. You can burn a billion dollars year of other ppl's money for a while, but eventually ppl find a new incinerator.

Gigafactory 3 was never going to be built.

Lie, lie, lie, lie, lie. Just a total lie.

Then it would not produce a single car before the end of 2020.

Of course not! You believed they would be operational in May or some nonsense like that. I figured Tesla couldn't set up a factory WAY faster than anyone ever has, and OF COURSE I WAS RIGHT.

Now onto Giga4 though, right? LOL.

Giga1 30% operational.
Giga2 5% operational.
Giga3 0% operational.

GigaTotal 12% operational. WE NEED MORE CAPACITY. Giga4!!! LOL.

I'll wait to add the model Y production to the list of never happening.

That will be a future lie. Always good to be prepared for your next straw-man arguments.

I'll expect more Semi's to appear.

So, magic isn't real. Tesla needs to set up a production line to actually manufacture vehicles. They haven't yet. Nor do they have permits to do so. Nor have any plans been announced on how they would do so. On a "product" launched in 2017. The emperor has no clothes.

Compare the track records of Tesla commitments and GSY predictions.  I do not feel I am on a losing streak.

You couldn't be more wrong. Almost every one of "my false predictions" is a pure fantasy of yours which I never actually said. Meanwhile fElon spews nonsense constantly...and it is well documented...

https://elonmusk.today/
big time oops

GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4591 on: December 04, 2019, 05:02:43 PM »
Rob, "Do you want to bet ?"

Sure. I bet it never happens. Just like the rest of the products Tesla has "launched" in the last 3 years.

OK dude. Please make up your mind : Is it "double the claimed $40k" ? Or is it "at least $60k" ?

Ok not-genius-Rob. There is a difference between the price they would sell the car for...(double the $40k claimed), and how much it would cost to make...(close to $60k). At least they is typically how businesses work. (I am however aware that Tesla is not really a business but instead more of a cash incinerator.)

Either way, show us your math on why Tesla cannot possibly offer this truck for $40k.

The starting prices for the X and S are about $80k. The cost for Tesla to make them is about $60k. There may be some aspects of the truck which allow Tesla to save considerable money versus the X and S, but there are also some elements of heavy trucks that cost A LOT more. So I consider it a wash.

Anyone who thinks the cybertruck will cost tesla $17k is delusional.
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GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4592 on: December 04, 2019, 05:35:26 PM »
https://electrek.co/2019/12/03/tesla-model-y-deliveries-within-4-months-says-deutsche-bank/

A totally BK bank is reporting that a totally BK auto manufacturer is going to start delivering a new car in a few months according to the totally BK auto manufacturer's PR blog. Very exciting.
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GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4593 on: December 04, 2019, 05:41:22 PM »
This thread is such an eye opener. Many posters here follow the exact pattern of climate change deniers. No matter what you say, no matter how much logic and/or facts and/or proof you name, they will always counter with either non-sense, putting the messenger with the bad news into the corner to be a bad guy or asking aggressive questions that they know cannot be answered even though they're obvious but lay in the future and hence one has to wait till things have unfolded.

This really is the heart of it all. The Teslemming followers of fElon Musk are oh so similar to climate change deniers. Rather than deny the entire problems, the Teslemmings deny that it is a predicament because if we just paint it all a very thin layer of green alloy that fElon just invented, it will all be fine. No need to change lifestyle, just paint it fElon green, the color that solves all problems through lies and deceit.
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oren

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4594 on: December 04, 2019, 05:45:39 PM »
A totally BK poster is crapping all over this forum.
There are ways to criticize that do not involve hurling insults and posting childish rants.

Re: Model Y, if it's actually delivered in Q1 or even in Q2 this will be a very positive surprise for Tesla, who until recently have been well known for serious delays in bringing new models to market.
Model Y was expected to ship in "late 2020" when "reservations" opened following the lackluster unveil in mid-March this year.

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4595 on: December 04, 2019, 06:17:58 PM »
Excuse me?

 ;) ;D
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gerontocrat

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4596 on: December 04, 2019, 06:42:59 PM »
The Teslemming followers of fElon Musk are oh so similar to climate change deniers. Rather than deny the entire problems, the Teslemmings deny that it is a predicament because if we just paint it all a very thin layer of green alloy that fElon just invented, it will all be fine. No need to change lifestyle, just paint it fElon green, the color that solves all problems through lies and deceit.
Another post with no data - just howls of frustration and rage.

This thread is mostly about whether Tesla is going to succeed in becoming a major producer of EVs - as in n million (where n is not small) vehicles a year. It is true to say that a good many people have an emotional commitment in hoping for Tesla's success. It is also true to say that a good many people have an emotional commitment in hoping for Tesla's failure.

Of, at least to me, secondary importance, is the development of solar power - PV and batteries. The marketplace has a good number of alternatives. Though Tesla having its own independent battery production and sources of raw materials, plus synergy from EVs, batteries & solar, gives it a significant market advantage, if Tesla make a success of these products it is the icing on the cake.

I am beginning to suspect that though Musk will appear for the razzamatazz of the big events (e.g. new products, quarterly investor calls), we will see and hear from him somewhat less. SpaceX and Mars may be far more exciting to him. It is not Musk but other sources that are speculating on earlier model Y and semi production and the ramping up the solar roof workforce.

At the moment, Tesla is doing very nicely. Only one month more and we will see Qu4 sales and a revenue snapshot.

If Tesla is a roaring success does it get the Biosphere out of the shit? No.
Can a lunatic like Bolsonaro quickly do more damage to the Biosphere than all the benefits from Tesla's EVs and solar power? Yes.

But that is for a different thread.
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ps: This cynic wonders who in China is sitting on Tesla's Licence to Sell - and how much do they want.
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philopek

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4597 on: December 04, 2019, 07:00:10 PM »
A totally BK poster is crapping all over this forum.
There are ways to criticize that do not involve hurling insults and posting childish rants.

Re: Model Y, if it's actually delivered in Q1 or even in Q2 this will be a very positive surprise for Tesla, who until recently have been well known for serious delays in bringing new models to market.
Model Y was expected to ship in "late 2020" when "reservations" opened following the lackluster unveil in mid-March this year.

As i think i made clear several times in the past i also find the tone could be more moderate but then:

- we should distinguish between the posted arguments and facts and probabilities and the wording
that we don't find always appropriate.

- as it happens when we are dealing with climate change deniers most of us become very straight forward and use bold language as does GSY about elon's impostereous business practice ans fund raising scams, so why so sensitive on one hand and so aggressive on the other that can be best described as a form of hypocrisy?

Those who don't like the tone should perhaps get rid of their bias and attitude as described in one of my earlier posts. I'm quite sure that even GSY would be willing to have a decent and fruitful discussion if his opponents wouldn't counter his arguments with either non-sequitur or outright BS that can only lead to the conclusion that there will be no way for a decent discussion. That said, once i find out that someone is not willing to talk facts and proven mechanism i, like GSY can make very rough final statements and opt out.

That's by the way where we differ, once i have heard and seen enough so that I lost my temper (which is a failure of course) i would opt out or at least heavily reduce any exchange in the future.

What i'm saying is that some of you measure with different scales, all you do yourself with people who you think are deniers, you won't accept if you are the deniers (in another context of course)

Once i said that the police and the gangsters are of the same kind, just on the other river bank and additionally it's totally arbitrary to which group some people belong. Main thing for them is to  belong at all, means they stop thinking their own thoughts but simply follow the lead-ram over the cliff.

NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4598 on: December 04, 2019, 07:57:32 PM »
So GSY never stated that Giga3 would be a mud field when Tesla went bust?

I'm not going to go back and review all the statements from last year, especially as a whole load of them were in the cars, cars, cars thread.

I do, however, have an entry in my calendar for Nov 11th 2020 to review our argument about GSY's assertion that Musk is fElon and Solar Roof v3 is a fake which will never be made in volume.

I even pasted the link to my post where I suggested we review it in a years time.

By that time, if GSY is right, Tesla will have either gone bust or run out of money, Giga4 will be stalled and Giga3 won't be producing any vehicles.

That should be pretty easy to verify.

I note that GSY lambasted me over my Giga3 claim, all over again, apparently ignoring the fact that as every day goes by, Tesla pushes out more and more cars from Giga3. Up around 200 now.

GSY is not being treated as a denier because of the tone and the language.  That we can all cope with.  It is because he ignores facts, cherry picks and presents slanted analysis.

Those are the traits of a denyer.

Whilst I admit to being partial to positive analysis myself, the underlying trend tends to support it.  Otherwise I would be very critical myself.

Anyway, not too long to wait for the results and I, too, am wondering about the license to sell and the motivation behind it.

Regardless, Tesla is using the time to build staffing and focus on training.

None of which is bad business practise.
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #4599 on: December 04, 2019, 08:08:11 PM »
Maybe GSY is saying Tesla should fail so that we all get off any potential 'EVs will save us' meme.  Maybe he's saying Tesla's success will doom us all to a green-BAU hell, lined with so-called 'good' intentions, and that what we should be doing is lowering our carbon footprint to near zero and getting our neighbors to do the same.  [Everybody is our neighbor.]  But I don't read GSY's posts here (unless duplicated by others), so I don't know.

Tesla's possible success ("Tesla might be the next Apple and Elon Musk the heir to Steve Jobs") may just be "BAU until they peel my cold dead hands from it".  I find this sobering.

Unless EVs are just a transition to 20 years from now when very nearly all of us will not need (or have) heavy personal transportation machines (cars) anymore.  Pooled self-driving vehicles for when we have to travel, and outlaw most personal ownership: certainly a possibility.  And a different world.  But it will be a different world one way or another!
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