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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #5050 on: January 13, 2020, 10:56:38 PM »
Tesla is an 'existential threat' to automakers, says Oppenheimer analyst with $612 price target Colin Rusch
Quote
In researching the electric vehicle market ahead of its price hike, Rusch said, significant attention was paid toward the designs of cars released by competitors.

"And what we were looking at is designs very similar to the Tesla Model 3 coming out two, three years from now," he said.

"So our conclusion is that, given some time, Tesla having a little more risk tolerance as an organization and being able to learn from its mistakes, that they're going to continue to evolve ahead of their competition," Rusch said.

He also said Tesla's significant number of electric vehicles on the road — more than 600,000, he said — could give it a massive data advantage over rivals as autonomous vehicle development matures.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/13/oppenheimer-analyst-tesla-is-an-existential-threat-to-automakers.html
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #5051 on: January 13, 2020, 11:38:54 PM »
...  As an aside, 1 million passenger EVs  on the road in the USA reduces demand for gasoline*** by about 0.03 million barrels per day, compared with 2018 gasoline consumption of a bit above 8 million barrels per day by autos and light vans (source: EIA + guess about HGVs & Buses)....

Another consideration regarding the reduced gasoline use is that the first generation of EVs were only short-range models, and the charging infrastructure was limited, which made long trips impractical.  But today’s EVs make long distance travel, even cross-country, an everyday occurrence.  That and fast charging now makes an EV the primary car, not a secondary one for when circumstances fit.  Add in the rapid growth of EV sales and it’s clear the gas reduction trend will not be linear.
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NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #5052 on: January 14, 2020, 12:37:34 AM »
Every large project has a number of things like that to deal with.

Don't I know it.  But if you are intent on being the Knight in shining armour, having a solution up front which assures the local water supply is right up there.  Water, in the west, is considered a basic right but reality is that in many places it is a scarce resource. Particularly drinking water.
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jai mitchell

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #5053 on: January 14, 2020, 01:44:14 AM »
I am guessing that Tesla is making a huge announcement about solid state batteries at their next summit.
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blumenkraft

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #5054 on: January 14, 2020, 07:49:55 AM »
What makes you think that, Jai?
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KiwiGriff

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #5055 on: January 14, 2020, 08:23:04 AM »
Not long to go ?
https://electrek.co/2020/01/13/tesla-model-y-carb-range-deliveries/
The Tesla Model Y has received its CARB certification ahead of the launch and it hints at the potential range, which could have increased from the one originally announced last year.

Quote
It could also mean that deliveries are imminent.

Ahead of starting deliveries of a new passenger vehicle, automakers have to clear red tapes from several regulatory bodies including the California Air Ressource Board (CARB).

The delay between the vehicle receiving certification and starting deliveries can vary, but it has happened in less than a month for some Tesla vehicles in the past.

It’s not a perfect indicator, but the release of the CARB certification would mean that Tesla is getting closer to starting deliveries.


crandles

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #5056 on: January 14, 2020, 11:38:54 AM »
https://www.ccn.com/tesla-shares-only-need-10-bump-for-elon-musks-1-billion-bonus/

Tesla Shares Only Need 10% Bump for Elon Musk’s $1 Billion Bonus
https://www.ccn.com/tesla-shares-only-need-10-bump-for-elon-musks-1-billion-bonus/

Quote
After closing Friday at $478, Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) stock accelerated on Monday to yet another all-time high in just a span of days. With the electric car maker’s market cap now hovering north of $90 billion, Elon Musk’s is now nearer than ever to unlocking the first tranche (out of 12) of his generous pay package that was announced in 2018.

While there are multiple performance targets in the compensation plan, several have been achieved already. The only remaining milestone is Tesla hitting a market cap of $100 billion.

If $478 is north of $90Bn, then $531.11 should do it ....

and after hours share price is ..... $531.62

(Maybe it is Musk that has been driving up the share price causing shorts to have to cover? though I doubt it.


NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #5057 on: January 14, 2020, 12:17:55 PM »
There is a clause, I believe, for 1 month and 6 month trailing averages on unlocking the bonus.  The article I read was not clear on which although unlocking the ~$300m initial block may be based on 1 month trailing.

Given Tesla stock volatility, I'd sy it would have to get to $600 before he could be confident of hitting the average.
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #5058 on: January 14, 2020, 12:53:03 PM »
An illustration of the difference between  US (and UK?) and German business culture.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jan/14/fedex-anti-union-campaign-teamsters
FedEx mounts big-money push to head off unionization by US workers
Teamsters bid to organize employees seeking better pay and benefits as company bombards them with anti-union messages

Quote
FedEx workers hoping to unionize and get better pay and benefits have met with a well-financed barrage of opposition from the company, according to recordings obtained by the Guardian.

Workers who charge that their benefits are less than at rival UPS said the company has bombarded them with anti-union messages and forced them to attend anti-union meetings.

The Guardian obtained recordings of meetings that were mandatory and required workers to sign in, according to a FedEx employee, held at FedEx facilities in 2015 and 2016, where managers and union avoidance consultants lectured workers on unions as the Teamsters was attempting to organize FedEx drivers at several locations around the United States.

FedEx, the second largest logistics company in the US, spent $837,000 between 2014 and 2018 on union avoidance consultants, according to a recent report published by the Economic Policy Institute. The report found by examining publicly available forms filed by consultants with the Department of Labor, US employers spend around $340m annually on union avoidance consultants, with FedEx as one of the top spenders.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #5059 on: January 14, 2020, 01:46:25 PM »
Not long to go ?
https://electrek.co/2020/01/13/tesla-model-y-carb-range-deliveries/
The Tesla Model Y has received its CARB certification ahead of the launch and it hints at the potential range, which could have increased from the one originally announced last year.

Quote
It could also mean that deliveries are imminent.

Ahead of starting deliveries of a new passenger vehicle, automakers have to clear red tapes from several regulatory bodies including the California Air Ressource Board (CARB).

The delay between the vehicle receiving certification and starting deliveries can vary, but it has happened in less than a month for some Tesla vehicles in the past.

It’s not a perfect indicator, but the release of the CARB certification would mean that Tesla is getting closer to starting deliveries.



Re range:
Quote
Bozi Tatarevic (@hoonable) 1/13/20, 4:12 PM
UDDS Range is only used for the purpose of the certificate and not real world range. It roughly translates to real world city range with a multiplier of 0.7 so this would mean an estimate of around 309 miles of city range for the Model Y.

CARB certificate for the Tesla Model Y Performance AWD published on January 9th.
UDDS range is just slightly higher than that of the Model 3 Long Range AWD Performance with 20-inch wheels. 441.91 vs 430.5.
https://twitter.com/hoonable/status/1216811879961636864

Re timing:
Quote
Alter Viggo (@AlterViggo) 1/13/20, 6:21 PM
Potentially huge BREAKING NEWS
Model Y deliveries happening next month?!
Tesla published a Model Y CARB certificate on January 9th. Tesla signed the LR RWD Model 3's certificate on July 3, 2017. That was 25 days before the first deliveries on July 28. $TSLA #ModelY
https://twitter.com/alterviggo/status/1216862750837739527
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #5060 on: January 14, 2020, 01:50:47 PM »
Every large project has a number of things like that to deal with.

Don't I know it.  But if you are intent on being the Knight in shining armour, having a solution up front which assures the local water supply is right up there.  Water, in the west, is considered a basic right but reality is that in many places it is a scarce resource. Particularly drinking water.

I am guessing that Tesla is making a huge announcement about solid state batteries at their next summit.

New Maxwell dry electrode battery.  Much less water required.  ;)
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #5061 on: January 14, 2020, 01:55:42 PM »
Quote
Third Row Podcast (@thirdrowtesla) 1/13/20, 11:24 AM
congrats to Jonas on blowing his $10 - $500 price target

that takes skill
https://twitter.com/thirdrowtesla/status/1216757868826787842

—-
Quote
< in regards Tsla... this isn’t shorts covering yet is it??
Ihor Dusaniwsky (@ihors3) 1/13/20, 4:57 PM
not yet, but after today's price move I would imagine shorts will start covering soon.
https://twitter.com/ihors3/status/1216841643720093703

—-
Quote
Crescendo Cap (@crescendo_cap) 1/13/20, 9:22 AM
"I believe there will be a $700 PT soon; the bears don't know what to do; the competition don't know what to do" - Jim Cramer $tsla @jimcramer
https://twitter.com/crescendo_cap/status/1216727143301779458


Currently up $20, to $545, in premarket trading.  ;D
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #5062 on: January 14, 2020, 02:12:52 PM »
Quote
Ray4️⃣Tesla (@ray4tesla) 1/12/20, 2:54 PM
On 1/5, I posted a vid showing a busy store in China. MIC M3 buying frenzy continues. Taiguhui #Tesla Experience Center is one of 9 Tesla stores in #Shanghai. As of this weekend, the store is so busy at one point some customers have to queue outside. Deliveries are pushed to EOQ1.
https://twitter.com/ray4tesla/status/1216448508682620929
- A few days ago, orders placed then were expected to be delivered in early March. Orders placed now are expected to be delivered in late March.

Tesla Model 3 price drop results in surge of orders in China
”Reports from local media state that hundreds of Model 3s are being ordered at each store per day and 1,200 are being ordered in China daily.”
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-model-3-order-surge-china-price-drop/

The Shanghai stores are open 7 days a week.  And not half-days on Sunday, either.
https://www.tesla.com/findus
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #5063 on: January 14, 2020, 02:33:30 PM »
Quote
JPR007 (@jpr007) 1/9/20, 7:03 PM
TESLA SEMI CONFIRMED TO BE ON TRACK FOR LIMITED PRODUCTION IN 2020 H2
https://twitter.com/jpr007/status/1215423953306443776
Below: the leaked email, from late 2019.

Tesla Semi to enter first production in second half of 2020
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-semi-first-production-release-date-update/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #5064 on: January 14, 2020, 04:50:15 PM »
Tesla short sellers wish Elon Musk had funding secured at $420
Quote
Short sellers who have bet against Tesla's stock price surrendered a total of $2.89 billion in net-of-financing mark-to-market losses in 2019, and have almost matched that total in less than two weeks of trading in 2020, according to data from S3 Partners.
   •   Short sellers are down $2.80 billion in mark-to-market losses, including $1.25 billion in losses on Monday’s 9.77% price move.
https://www.axios.com/tesla-elon-musk-short-sellers-funding-420-552cb2a4-5fc7-403e-ad97-17aa6018573e.html


Musk nears $346 million payday as Tesla market value soars
Quote
Shares of Tesla surged 9% to a record high on Monday. They need to rise another 6% to put Tesla’s stock market value at $100 billion and then be sustained at that level for both a one-month and six-month average in order to trigger the vesting of the first of 12 tranches of options granted to Musk to buy Tesla stock.

Musk has already hit an operational target that is also necessary for the options to vest.

For Musk’s subsequent tranches to vest under the terms of the 2018 package, the company’s market cap would have to continue to sustainably rise by $50 billion increments over the agreement’s 10-year period, with the billionaire earning the full package if Tesla’s market capitalization reaches $650 billion and the electric car maker achieves several revenue and profit targets.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-stocks-tesla/musk-nears-346-million-payday-as-tesla-market-value-soars-idUSKBN1ZD1FY
Helpful graph below.
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NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #5065 on: January 14, 2020, 07:06:19 PM »
Or at least that his private backers had backed him up.
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Robert A. Heinlein

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #5066 on: January 14, 2020, 07:45:23 PM »
But of course, it's not really all about the money, is it?

542.66 USD +17.80 (3.39%)
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Archimid

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #5067 on: January 14, 2020, 08:02:55 PM »
Elon’s compensation is cheap at twice the money. 

He gets nothing if he fails and the goals are extremely lofty. Due to market vagaries, he might not get paid even if his performance is perfect. The man is committed.

Taking Tesla Private at 420 was real. It was made impossible by the extremely negative media environment.
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NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #5068 on: January 14, 2020, 08:18:01 PM »
Ably, assisted by short statements which have been proven to be, at best, myopic and at worst outright lies.
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #5069 on: January 14, 2020, 08:29:11 PM »
Ably, assisted by short statements which have been proven to be, at best, myopic and at worst outright lies.
Two little words "funding secured" wos wot dunnit.
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jai mitchell

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #5070 on: January 14, 2020, 10:38:40 PM »
the short squeeze has only just begun.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #5071 on: January 15, 2020, 12:55:07 AM »
Elon Musk:
Quote
Buff Mage (@elonmusk) 1/14/20, 1:23 PM
Great song
Lena Horne - Stormy Weather [1943] - YouTube

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1217150232678416384

Quote
Austin Cooper  (@AustinCooper90) 1/14/20, 12:36 PM
TSLAQ bears are waiting for a huge correction downward when “reality sets in”.  Tesla bulls realize that “reality setting in” is exactly what caused this rally in the first place.
https://twitter.com/austincooper90/status/1217138416439242752

In recent years, TSLAQ has used a flood of FUD as an excuse to sink the stock price shortly before or after Tesla reported quarterly financial results.  Wonder what the bears will come up with up this time?
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #5072 on: January 15, 2020, 02:34:08 AM »
Giga 4 Berlin  — The Environmental Impact Assessment!

Here’s the landing page for the German site:
https://www.uvp-verbund.de/trefferanzeige?docuuid=94AFADF0-92F1-44EA-AA54-E1CD7C0FF6AD

“Errichtung und Betrieb einer Anlage für den Bau und die Montage von Elektrofahrzeugen mit einer Kapazität von jeweils 100.000 Stück oder mehr je Jahr am Standort 15537 Grünheide (Mark) - Reg.-Nr.: G07819
ZULETZT GEÄNDERT: 03.01.2020”

From the text on that page (via Google Translate):
“Construction and operation of a plant for the construction and assembly of electric vehicles with a capacity of 100,000 pieces or more each year at the 15537 Grünheide (Mark) location - registration no .: G07819
 LAST CHANGED: 01/03/2020”
Quote
General project description
The project essentially includes the construction and operation of a system for the construction and assembly of models 3 and Y as well as future models with an estimated annual production of 500,000 electric vehicles.  The plant will contain the following production steps: press shop, foundry, body shop, paint shop, seat production, plastic production, battery production, drive production and final assembly.  In addition, a wastewater treatment plant with a capacity of 252 m3 / h, a central supply building, a delivery and delivery area and an employee parking lot are planned.  The project affects the forest.

Quote
Commissioning of the plant is scheduled for July 2021.
This fits with Musk’s comment that he expects trial production to begin in 12-18 months after site work is started.

—-
The report PDFs (in German) are at the bottom of the page— look for the largest ones. :)

“UVP - Bericht für das Vorhaben” is  “EIA Report for the Project”
• UVP - Bericht Tesla Manufacturing Brandenburg  12.2 MB (246 pages!)

Emission forecast air pollutants and odor:
• Immissionsprognose Luftschadstoffe und Geruch Tesla Manufac.pdf 15.8 MB (150 pages)

The summary of the air pollution emissions forecast declares that no harmful environmental effects are anticipated for the general public or neighborhood:
Quote
…for all air pollutants (dust, nitrogen dioxide, sulfur dioxide, carbon monoxide, formaldehyde and hexamethyl diisocyanate) there is an irrelevant additional load at all assessment points.  The forecast additional odor pollution from the planned facility is <0.079 relative frequency of odor hours per year in the residential area and <0.052 relative frequency of odor hours per year in the commercial area.  The GIRL immission values ​​are observed for both the residential area (0, 10) and the commercial area (0, 15).  If the plant is operated properly, taking into account the conditions for the processing period described in the expert opinion, it can be assumed that the air pollutant emissions and odor emanating from the plant cannot cause harmful environmental effects for the general public and the neighborhood…

——     
Here’s an English (Google) translation of the EIA Report — text only! (Maps, etc, are only in the German version.)
~232 pages.
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1-LJowypD7Dbm6aZHqaNFLqYk6JGyW9ru/view

Overall, as noted previously, effects are expected to be Low, except Moderate during construction:
Quote
Overall, the impact is mostly low due to the intended use operation on the protected goods are expected. The most far-reaching effects go accompanied by forest conversion during the construction. With these effects was too count, since the forest area already in 2001 for the establishment of a plant for vehicle manufacturing position was designated as an industrial area.
- Page 184 or thereabouts.

H/t:  https://twitter.com/gf4tesla/status/1216843463628554242
        And: https://twitter.com/gigafactory_4/status/1213977209532227594
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NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #5073 on: January 15, 2020, 01:48:00 PM »
How the bear and short cases justify themselves.

Jim Collins tries to put his case out there that Tesla production will grow between 0k and 40k in 2020.

His take.

Quote
These people aren’t even doing the most basic analysis—counting cars—


https://www.forbes.com/sites/jimcollins/2020/01/14/teslas-market-share-losses-in-the-us-in-2019-are-in-stock-contrast-to-its-2020-stock-price/amp/

He quite wilfully ignores the fact that Tesla is supply constrained.  The worst thing that Tesla can do is ignore markets it is opening just to keep US analysts happy on US sales.  We know that delivery times for Tesla's ordered in the US are running well into Feb.  This is not a company lacking in demand, it is lacking in supply and it has two more huge supply engines coming up.  One coming onstream now and the other due next year.

Honestly, with this kind of analysis, it is no surprise that Tesla stock is choppy.

I would link this and send him a "dumass" email in Jan 2021 but I'm sure the markets will have punished him enough by then.
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #5074 on: January 15, 2020, 02:46:10 PM »
I am wondering what the QU4 solar results will look like, especially the solar roof.

The latest news I can find (Jan 14th) on the solar roof has some real data on hiring installers in additional US States + training, and blah-blah on solar roof production. The headline "massive expansion" is a bit of an exaggeration?  Lots of plans but how many roofs being produced / installed?

https://ww.electrek.co/2020/01/14/tesla-massive-solar-roof-expansion-new-markets/#
Tesla prepares massive solar roof expansion in many new markets
Quote
Last month, we reported on where Tesla first planned to expand solar roof installations based on its efforts to hire a lot of roofers in some regions.

It was primarily in California, Texas, and Florida.

Now Tesla has added many more job listings for Solarglass roofers across the US in preparation for expansions in several new markets.

Here are all the new Tesla Solarglass markets:
Arizona -   Phoenix
Colorado -Parker
Connecticut - Hartford
Delaware - Wilmington, Seaford
Florida - Fort Lauderdale
Hawaii - Mililani
Oregon - Portland
Maryland - Hunt Valley / Baltimore
Massachusetts - Marlborough, Taunton
New York - Bethpage, New Windsor
New Jersey - Blackwood, Pine Brook
Texas - Austin
Utah - Draper
Tesla is also planning several training centers to train roofers to install the solar roof tiles. The company is also supposed to open up installations to third-party companies.

And apart from Alaska (dec 2019), no news on sales of the battery megapack.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #5075 on: January 15, 2020, 07:24:59 PM »
More paperwork completed for selling the model Y.
For you Tesla Groupies out there, article tells you how to decode the NHTSA VIN code.

https://ww.electrek.co/2020/01/15/tesla-model-y-vins-appear-in-nhtsa-database-ahead-of-deliveries/#
Tesla Model Y VINs appear in NHTSA database ahead of deliveries
The Tesla Model Y is now a listed model on NHTSA’s manufacturer page for Tesla, and Model Y VINs can now be decoded using the official NHSTA decoder.

ps: Didn't realise what a boring looking vehicle it is.
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NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #5076 on: January 15, 2020, 07:47:34 PM »
The stock is bumping around 530 too.  I guess that until something radically changes, we will be in a holding pattern till the earnings call.

I did wonder about the solar roof.  It is going to take thousands of roofing teams to hit the Musk target unless they can do the roof in two days. I wonder what Elon is thinking? The roofing schools are a good idea. Companies already build millions of roofs every year, around the world, and have the staff to do it.

You would think that Tesla would have all the business they could handle if they become a selection option on a new build.  Incorporated into the mortgage, only the premium to pay as it has to have a roof anyway.

But Musk is a bit of a lone wolf though and Tesla has not really learned the benefits of cooperative builds.

They need to learn that construction is not the same as Auto.  There are synergies to be had.
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #5077 on: January 15, 2020, 09:59:15 PM »
...
ps: Didn't realise what a boring looking vehicle it is.

Now you’re just begging for a retort.
« Last Edit: January 16, 2020, 03:23:28 AM by Sigmetnow »
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nanning

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #5078 on: January 16, 2020, 05:47:08 AM »
Thanks for the colour model sig. I observe these days that almost all cars are a shade of grey or white or black. This to me says something about grown-up humans' psyche. Shocking.
People's clothes are mostly dark and colourless as well. How very different from youth and children (and me) and the 70s/80s.
More colour everywhere please.
I think almost all cars these days are uncreatively boring, no offence.
"It is preoccupation with possessions, more than anything else, that prevents us from living freely and nobly" - Bertrand Russell
   Simple: minimize your possessions and be free and kind    It's just a mindset.       Refugees welcome

NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #5079 on: January 16, 2020, 11:09:53 AM »
It is a reality that all battles for masses are fought in the centre ground and the center of people, politics or anything else is, essentially, boring. Everyone does it so how do you stand out..
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oren

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #5080 on: January 16, 2020, 11:19:03 AM »
What does it look like? I care somewhat, but not so much.
How much CO2 does it emit? Choking fumes? Poisonous stink while refueling? I care a lot.

NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #5081 on: January 16, 2020, 06:01:59 PM »
To be honest I thought it looked like a model 3 that had a botox injection.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #5082 on: January 16, 2020, 06:05:40 PM »
To be honest I thought it looked like a model 3 that had a botox injection.

Or a baby Model X. :)

(Before it grows its falcon wing doors.)
« Last Edit: January 16, 2020, 06:26:50 PM by Sigmetnow »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #5083 on: January 16, 2020, 06:28:17 PM »
Model Y, “74kWh Battery Pack”

TechFan (@Official_Rich_H) 1/16/20, 10:13 AM
https://twitter.com/official_rich_h/status/1217827224751083527
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #5084 on: January 16, 2020, 07:52:06 PM »
FUD is picking up as we approach financial results reporting period. 
FYI:  Q4 2017 Tesla results came on Feb 7, and Q4 2018 on January 30….

—-
It’s Adam “my TSLA price target is between $10 and $500 — you choose” Jonas, so… ::)
Tesla stock falls after Morgan Stanley turns bearish
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/tesla-stock-falls-after-morgan-stanley-turns-bearish-2020-01-16

—-
Quote
Alter Viggo (@AlterViggo)1/16/20, 2:02 AM
Oops. An automotive data company just made a massively boneheaded error interpreting Tesla deliveries in California for December. And major media outlets like CNBC were duped into publishing it without remembering we already went through this last year. $TSLA
1/
https://twitter.com/alterviggo/status/1217703620470280194
2/ The report, published by @Reuters, @CNBC, and others, incorrectly paints a very dire portrait of @Tesla's delivery performance in December.
But read very carefully. The report discusses "registrations," which is very different from deliveries. $TSLA
cnbc.com/2020/01/16/new…
3/ California reports a car registration about 2-4 weeks after it is delivered. But nearly all of December Tesla deliveries in California occurred in the last two weeks of the month, and the bulk of those in the very last week. …
4/ So Dominion Cross-Sell's registration data completely misses California's massive December delivery crush of Teslas. And guess what they did last year too.
See that giant peak of registrations in Jan. 2019? Those were all the December 2018 deliveries.
[graph below]
5/ Cross-Sell's Shane Marcum says, “One can assume that Tesla has hit peak performance in the U.S."
Oh really? Is that why California delivery waits are more than two months?
Doesn't sound like @Tesla has peaked to me. $TSLA
6/ So, Tesla shatters their record for deliveries in a quarter, but somehow data that's only loosely related to delivery numbers, in one state, spells doom and gloom?!
Please.

….


—-   THREAD OF FAMOUS FUD:
Quote
ValueAnalyst (@ValueAnalyst1) 1/14/20, 5:33 AM
“Tesla shares could drop to $10”
Adam Jonas. May 21, 2019.
https://twitter.com/valueanalyst1/status/1217032038089404416
- "Tesla to miss delivery forecast and stock to get cut in half"
Jeffrey Osborne. December 30, 2019.
- "2H19 (and beyond) volume estimates look high"
David Tamberrino. June 20, 2019.
- “We believe this will be as good as it gets for the company"
David Einhorn. November 6, 2018.
[more at the thread]
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #5085 on: January 16, 2020, 08:13:21 PM »
Tesla vehicles still 3-4x safer compared to average even without Autopilot and active safety features
Quote
Tesla recently published its Q4 2019 Vehicle Safety Report and it puts on the spotlight that accidents involving Teslas are still rarer compared to other vehicles on the road.

Tesla’s Vehicle Safety Report for Q4 2019 revealed that a Tesla on Autopilot was involved in one accident for every 3.07 million miles driven.
For those without Autopilot but use the active safety features of the vehicle, there was one accident per 2.10 million miles driven.
Tesla owners who do not use Autopilot and other active safety features were involved in one accident for every 1.64 million miles driven.
Overall, these numbers are far better than what’s been recorded by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) which indicates there being one automobile crash in the United States every 479,000 miles.

Vehicle Fire Data
From 2012 – 2019, there has been approximately one Tesla vehicle fire for every 175 million miles traveled. By comparison, data from the National Fire Protection Association (NFPA) and U.S. Department of Transportation shows that in the United States there is a vehicle fire for every 19 million miles traveled.
In order to provide an apt comparison to NFPA data, Tesla’s data set includes instances of vehicle fires caused by structure fires, arson, and other things unrelated to the vehicle, which account for some of the Tesla vehicle fires over this time period.

https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-vehicles-still-3-4x-safer-compared-to-average-even-without-autopilot-and-active-safety-features/

—-
Quote
ValueAnalyst (@ValueAnalyst1) 1/15/20, 8:34 AM
Collapsing lithium prices may incrementally help MIC margins in 2020, but more importantly, this confirms that the supply of Lithium is more than enough to support Tesla's planned growth in the near term and can be ramped quickly when needed.
https://twitter.com/valueanalyst1/status/1217439873365352450
Graph of lithium prices below.

———
Could the ‘Model 2’ be designed and built in China?

“This design drawing almost looks like it could be an early Model Y drawing, but at the same time, it looks like it could be a smaller hatchback.  The latter could be very interesting: a small and affordable premium electric hatchback made in high volume at Tesla Gigafactory 3 to be exported around the world.”

Tesla releases new design drawing, announces design center to build ‘Chinese-style’ car
Quote
Tesla announced plans to build a design studio and R&D center in China in order to build a car and in the announcement, it released a new design drawing.

At an event for the start of made-in-China Model 3 deliveries to customers and the launch of the Model Y program last week, CEO Elon Musk said Tesla will design an electric car in China for the global market.

Musk said:
I think something that would be super cool would be to — and so we’re gonna do it, we’re gonna try to do it — would be to create a China design and engineering center to actually design an original car in China for worldwide consumption.  I think this will be very exciting.  I think China has some of the best art in the world, and I think it’s something that would be appreciated on a worldwide basis.  I think it should be done, and we’re gonna do it.
https://electrek.co/2020/01/16/tesla-new-design-drawing-announces-design-center-chinese-style-car/
Image below.
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KiwiGriff

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #5086 on: January 16, 2020, 09:55:31 PM »
Tesla vehicles still 3-4x safer compared to average even without Autopilot and active safety features

Quote
Accident Data

In the 4th quarter, we registered one accident for every 3.07 million miles driven in which drivers had Autopilot engaged. For those driving without Autopilot but with our active safety features, we registered one accident for every 2.10 million miles driven. For those driving without Autopilot and without our active safety features, we registered one accident for every 1.64 million miles driven. By comparison, NHTSA’s most recent data shows that in the United States there is an automobile crash every 479,000 miles.
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-vehicles-still-3-4x-safer-compared-to-average-even-without-autopilot-and-active-safety-features/

crandles

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #5087 on: January 16, 2020, 10:08:44 PM »
Tesla vehicles still 3-4x safer compared to average even without Autopilot and active safety features

https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-vehicles-still-3-4x-safer-compared-to-average-even-without-autopilot-and-active-safety-features/

Wonder what numbers are typical for new cars? (More value to lose?) If people really like their Tesla, it has more value to lose and they intend to keep it longer than other cars they have had, does this make people more careful?

Still 3.4 times further per accident without safety features seems a decent margin even if there are such issues with the data.

KiwiGriff

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #5088 on: January 16, 2020, 10:44:11 PM »
Yip lies, damn lies and statistics.
Kids and poor people  who drive older or poorly maintained  cars  crash more.
The rate difference for autopilot is less confounded by demographics .
Even then autopilot is more likely to be engage on good quality highways than dodgy backroads.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #5089 on: January 16, 2020, 10:57:06 PM »
Yip lies, damn lies and statistics.
Kids and poor people  who drive older or poorly maintained  cars  crash more.
The rate difference for autopilot is less confounded by demographics .
Even then autopilot is more likely to be engage on good quality highways than dodgy backroads.

I think this data is most helpful to counter TSLAQ claims that the accident and death rates in Tesla cars is much higher than average.  That was one of the reasons Musk gave for releasing it.

It is a fact that people in Teslas are safer.  That not everyone can drive a Tesla... or that they may not drive the way, or the places, Tesla drivers do, does not change that fact.
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NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #5090 on: January 17, 2020, 07:46:59 AM »
More importantly, the number of accidents per mile driven is reducing as Tesla sells more vehicles. Which is normal. For smaller samples of data where a single accident has a much higher impact.

If Tesla vehicles were unsafe, then the number of accidents would rise sharply.
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #5091 on: January 18, 2020, 08:00:41 PM »
Tesla Announces Date for Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2019 Financial Results and Webcast

PALO ALTO, California  -- Tesla will post its financial results for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2019 after market close on Wednesday, January 29, 2020. At that time, Tesla will issue a brief advisory containing a link to the Q4 and full year 2019.

https://ir.tesla.com/events-and-presentations
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NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #5092 on: January 20, 2020, 08:10:38 PM »
It is becoming a bit creepy getting all these positive predictions from seekingalpha

Quote
I expect Tesla's automotive revenue and gross profit to be $5.856 billion and $1.405 billion respectively; total revenue and gross profit should be $8.606 billion and $1.375 billion respectively.

Quote
Due to a 333.3% higher EPS than analysts anticipate, I expect Tesla to see a short-term value spike after the release of their report.

https://seekingalpha.com/amp/article/4317906-teslas-q4-earnings-expect-substantial-beat
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #5093 on: January 20, 2020, 10:21:12 PM »
Rumors, news and analysis

—- Model Y
Quote
Moez (@moez) 1/18/20, 3:32 PM
CONFIRMED from a Tesla employee. Model Y first deliveries happening in 2 weeks.#Tesla #TSLA
https://twitter.com/moez/status/1218632207142510592

—— Giga Berlin
Quote
#Gf4 #Gigafactory4 (@Gf4Tesla) 1/19/20, 9:40 AM
According to Tagesspiegel information, Tesla has signed the purchase contract for Gigafactory4 in Grünheide. Following Brandenburg's state parliament, the company's top management under Elon Musk from the USA has now given the green light for the contract.
amp.tagesspiegel.de/berlin/kaufver…
https://twitter.com/gf4tesla/status/1218905960606990336


==== China
Quote
特拉风 T☰SLA mania (@Tesla__Mania) 1/20/20, 10:24 AM
Update from my source:
Second shift at Giga Shanghai will be added around mid February.
https://twitter.com/tesla__mania/status/1219279618793857024

—-
Quote
Ming Zhao (@mingcalls) 1/19/20, 6:34 PM
[size=pt]Shanghai $TSLA Jingan store check Sunday: red &black delivery time June; the other three colors delivery time end of April. Saving rmb 80k plate fee makes a rmb <300k car even more attractive! People mountain people sea.[/size]
https://twitter.com/mingcalls/status/1219040479234293762
Photo at the link.

——
(JAN 19)The second phase of the production line is under construction\Tesla GF 3 in shanghai特斯拉上海工厂


Around minute 11+ you can see many buses.  (There is almost no employee parking.)


—- Tariffs
Tesla May Be Only Big Winner in U.S. Batteries Bound for China
January 15, 2020
Quote
(Bloomberg) -- Terms of Trade is a daily newsletter that untangles a world embroiled in trade wars.

Tesla Inc. may be the single largest beneficiary of a provision tucked into the trade deal between the U.S. and China.

As part of the accord signed Wednesday, China will import more energy storage systems and parts from the U.S. this year and next. Tesla’s Gigafactory in Nevada is by far the largest battery plant in the U.S., representing 42% of nationwide production, according to data from BloombergNEF. No other manufacturer in America comes close to its capacity.

China is, by far, the world’s biggest battery producer, with factories capable of cranking out 275,560 megawatt-hours worth of cells. The U.S. trails as a distant second, at 33,116 megawatt-hours, according to BloombergNEF data.
https://finance.yahoo.com/amphtml/news/tesla-may-only-big-winner-180927044.html

—- World
Tesla Model 3 ends 2019 as the best selling pure EV in the US, Norway, Netherlands, Switzerland, Denmark, Sweden (& UK?).
2nd in France where Renault Zoe took top place & 2nd to Nissan Leaf in Portugal.
3rd in Germany just behind Renault Zoe & the evergreen BMW i3, which all had sales between 9,000 & 9,500.

Tesla Sales — Global & Country by Country
This page is dedicated to sharing recent highlights of Tesla sales in various markets and market segments
https://cleantechnica.com/tesla-sales/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #5094 on: January 20, 2020, 10:25:52 PM »
Tesla Model 3's 2019 China registrations show 161% increase year-over-year
Quote
Tesla posted 6,643 new vehicle registrations in China last December, helping push the company’s 2019 total to 42,715. This corresponds to a 161% increase compared to 2018, when the Palo Alto, California-based car manufacturer hit the 16,360 mark in China.
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-model-3-china-sales-161-percent-increase-yoy/

—-
Sandy Munro:  tooling costs for 600,000 vehicles
Ford F-150:  $615 million   
Tesla Cybertruck: $125 million 


Deconstructing The Tooling Cost on Tesla’s Cybertruck - Autoline After Hours 492 - YouTube
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NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #5095 on: Today at 11:27:32 AM »
More market manipulation crushed by Tesla technology?

Quote
Unfortunately, the legislation, in this context, works only in one direction. Any information that is distributed by the Mr. Musk is considered under the scrutiny of the relevant authorities and structures. But when it comes to the fact that pseudo-journalists, media, short sellers and haters of Tesla, disseminate deliberately false information, this remains without due attention.

https://www.tesmanian.com/blogs/tesmanian-blog/there-is-no-unintended-acceleration-in-tesla-vehicles

Fairly strong words.  But perhaps fair. Given that Tesla tracks so much information with so many sensors and the AP suite.
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #5096 on: Today at 11:31:52 AM »
Perhaps? Of course, it's fair, Neil.

It's not okay to lie. Period.

When the MSM gives those liars a platform, they are doing wrong. It's their job to sort out valid stuff from BS.

They had one job...
The apocalypse is already here; it's just not very evenly distributed.