Tesla glory/failure

[gerontocrat]

Tesla made an annual profit, so it gets a p/e ratio.

I am not sure that a p/e ratio of 940 adds to the allure of Tesla.

[Sigmetnow]

I approved the posts above but Musk being part of manufacturing consent is probably not that relevant to the thread topic.

Although maybe we should conclude Tesla is a success and just close the thread...

The reason this thread was created was to keep emotional fights over Tesla from clogging up the Cars thread.  I guess now that Tesla’s direction is well established, most Musk/Tesla products could be covered in other threads — EVs, batteries, Boring, etc..  Occasional gigafactory updates and quarterly results could fit under the EVs thread, as with other companies’ news.  If needed, perhaps future arguments that erupt could be directed over to an “Elon Musk: Angel or Devil?” thread over in the Off-Topic section?  But I’m not sure where discussion of Tesla stock and financials would belong (if anywhere ).

[oren]

Nah, this thread is doing its job. Please don't merge it with the cars thread.
"Elon Musk - devil or Satan?" could fit well in "the rest", though beats me why anyone would want to visit that thread.

[zizek]

I approved the posts above but Musk being part of manufacturing consent is probably not that relevant to the thread topic.

Although maybe we should conclude Tesla is a success and just close the thread...

The reason this thread was created was to keep emotional fights over Tesla from clogging up the Cars thread.  I guess now that Tesla’s direction is well established, most Musk/Tesla products could be covered in other threads — EVs, batteries, Boring, etc..  Occasional gigafactory updates and quarterly results could fit under the EVs thread, as with other companies’ news.  If needed, perhaps future arguments that erupt could be directed over to an “Elon Musk: Angel or Devil?” thread over in the Off-Topic section?  But I’m not sure where discussion of Tesla stock and financials would belong (if anywhere ).

I think we need to have a single thread where you can post all your updates. Most internet forums don't allow people to constantly post links without commentary because it takes away from discussion. If you want to post something in a thread, it should be in the interest of spurring discussion. Posts without commentary are fine in small doses, especially if a big event occurs, but this forum has become a feed for silicon valley technology blogs.

[zizek]

I think it's very sad that the discussion of public transport vs. building more cars is a contentious debate. Like, you would think that a website dedicated to solving climate change would figure this out by now. But after four or so years I've been posting here the consensus has managed to sit somewhere around "public transport is fine, sometimes bad, but what we really need to build a lot more cars to beat climate change".
My hope is that young people won't find this forum because any advice they receive is awful.

[kassy]

This forum is about discussing policy and solutions to combat climate change. I continue to stand by my argument that Musk's vision for individualized transport, suburban lifestyle, and hyper-growth does more harm than good. Tesla's success is a failure for climate action. It displaces ACTUAL and PROVEN solutions like public transport......

I'm not sure how discussing Musk in the Musk thread is off-topic. Musk manacturing consent to promote business growth at the cost of public health has implications that are directly connected to climate change.

I agree on the first part.

The second part probably has a lot to do with this:
The reason this thread was created was to keep emotional fights over Tesla from clogging up the Cars thread.

Musk being part of the elite that is manufacturing consent was always that way. So basically a broader critique should go into If not capitalism then what? although i totally understand why you want to make the point here.

[Sigmetnow]

Arguing that cars are evil and should not exist is the purpose of the Cars thread.  By all means, go for it, over there.

Edit:
link:  https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2687.msg199105.html#msg199105

[oren]

I think it's very sad that the discussion of public transport vs. building more cars is a contentious debate. Like, you would think that a website dedicated to solving climate change would figure this out by now.

This is not contentious at all. However the discussion does not belong to the Tesla thread.

But after four or so years I've been posting here the consensus has managed to sit somewhere around "public transport is fine, sometimes bad, but what we really need to build a lot more cars to beat climate change".

No. We would do well with no private cars at all. But despite public transport being better than building more cars, there are still 90 million fossil fueled cars being built every year due to widespread demand for private cars. Ignoring this and crying for more public transport will not change the fact. The resulting conclusion is that in parallel to promoting public transport, we need to build cleaner new cars so as to stop these fossil fuel cars from being built. So whoever can build millions of EVs that are attractive enough to reduce demand for fossil fuel cars should be of interest to this forum. Enter Tesla.

[Sigmetnow]

Tesla’s huge new casting machines are popping up everywhere.
The GigaBerlin plan shows eight of them!
Tesla’s eight giant casting machines in Giga Berlin may be key to ‘Model 2’ puzzle
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-giga-berlin-8-giant-casting-machines-model-2-puzzle

At 14 minutes+ in this video, Rob Maurer mentions teslamag.de writing that each of the eight casting machines’ max operating capacity is 73.1 tons/day, and that others have calculated that might mean 750,000 to 800,000 cars/year.
TSLA’s Worst Day Ever, Tesla Completes $5B Raise, Elon Musk & Volkswagen, Delivery Wait Times
➡️https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=S2nbEJiO2Eo
 
No room inside the factory? No problem!  Perhaps influenced by the success of SpaceX’s outdoor steel rocket construction in Boca Chica, Texas, Tesla’s Fremont factory is breaking in two new casting machines… outside.
Drone flyover of Tesla’s massive new casting machine shows new parts outside
https://electrek.co/2020/09/09/tesla-casting-machine-new-parts-laying-outside-drone-flyover/

—-
Tesla partner Panasonic shares details of Gigafactory Nevada’s major expansion

It appears that Tesla’s battery partner, Panasonic, is preparing for a massive ramp in Gigafactory Nevada, with an executive stating that the Japanese firm will be rolling out a major expansion of its operations on the site. These include the installation of new equipment and the hiring of more workers, which would allow Giga Nevada to produce battery cells at higher rates than before. …

https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-panasonic-expands-battery-gigafactory-nevada-operations/

—-
Tesla Energy ramps hiring at Giga New York for accelerated solar production
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-energy-giga-new-york-hiring-ramp-production-demand/amp/

[NeilT]

But after four or so years I've been posting here the consensus has managed to sit somewhere around "public transport is fine, sometimes bad, but what we really need to build a lot more cars to beat climate change".

No. We would do well with no private cars at all. But despite public transport being better than building more cars, there are still 90 million fossil fueled cars being built every year due to widespread demand for private cars. Ignoring this and crying for more public transport will not change the fact. The resulting conclusion is that in parallel to promoting public transport, we need to build cleaner new cars so as to stop these fossil fuel cars from being built. So whoever can build millions of EVs that are attractive enough to reduce demand for fossil fuel cars should be of interest to this forum. Enter Tesla.

For anyone who digs into the US election results, there is a reality which is rarely alluded to or admitted.  If you look at most states, they are almost entirely red with small city islands of blue.  States which are Democrat are the same.

Yes this is on topic.

Those wide areas of red are poorly served by public transport and require the use of personal vehicles if people want to bring goods to their homes and travel more than ten miles from where they live.  For some people that means a car to go visit a neighbour.

It is these people that Tesla serves and it is a huge demand.

Those who contend that public transport is fully proven and serves all needs tend to live in the blue islands.

The rest of us live in the rest of the world and have a different view.  We also buy personal vehicles.

Just like Veganism, a profound belief in one thing is not going to change the realities of the rest of the world.

Those realities keep the automotive business alive and, especially, Tesla.  What hacks me off is that we hear the same blue island viewpoint over an over an over again with ever more strident claims.  Sometimes it feels like I'm in a steak restaurant when the Vegans arrive.

[Archimid]

This thread is unlisted yet it is one of the most active threads, but you want to close it?


Tesla is not a failure or success yet. They still have to displace fossil fuels. Right now they are still a niche automaker, and Climate change is accelerating. They absolutly must accelerate EV and Tesla energy production to even make a dent in the huge climate change problem that we have. We are still going to need geoengineering.

Tesla is far from success. However Tesla is also getting farther from failure. After that last raise and due to their world wide diversification, their war chest is ready to survive even the worst depression. The product lineup is looking mighty.

But the mission is to transition the world's energy. At that Tesla, is only begining. How can they already be a failure or sucess?

[KiwiGriff]

Tesla's  success  is not  binary .
Have they proven?

That electric cars can be as good as or better than ICE ?
I could post many videos of professional car reviews who benchmark the Model 3 against the premium ICE offerings from Europe   and find it either the outright winner or a real contender.

That you can travel long distance in an electric car?
The supercharger network makes it easy even here on  my remote pacific islands.

Made other car manufactures  take electric cars seriously rather than just building odd looking limited market compliance cars?
Google BMW i3 or Chevy bolt  if you want  examples.

If you answer yes to any of these Tesla is already a success.

Tesla have already proven beyond doubt it is possible to build electric cars that stand up on their own merits as  cars not just as a compromised virtual signal for  rich liberals or a limited market niche product to get around legal restrictions on ICE sales.
 
Tesla has already won they have accelerated the transition to  electric transport  by a measurable amount .

[kassy]

And as a reminder here is post 1:

This thread is to be used for the most part to post articles that Tesla Inc. is either successfully implementing its business model, or that it's failing to do so. The Internet is full of tiresome discussions on this subject, so I'd appreciate it if you partake in them elsewhere. Post your evidence for either stance, and then exercise patience.

[nanning]

^^
So this thread is not just for the in-crowd but also for critical opinions and articles.
It would be good to state when the goals of failure or success have been reached and what the business model is.

I think the word "glory" should be replaced with "success" because talking about 'glory' is not scientific but emotive. We don't want glory-echo chambers here imo (Tesla newsfeeds and advertorials) since that wouldn't be a balanced 'discussion'.

[KiwiGriff]

xThe Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan (just between you and me)

Elon Musk, Co-Founder & CEO of Tesla Motors August 2, 2006

Backgrouand : My day job is running a space transportation company called SpaceX, but on the side I am the chairman of Tesla Motors and help formulate the business and product strategy with Martin and the rest of the team. I have also been Tesla Motor's primary funding source from when the company was just three people and a business plan.

As you know, the initial product of Tesla Motors is a high performance electric sports car called the Tesla Roadster. However, some readers may not be aware of the fact that our long term plan is to build a wide range of models, including affordably priced family cars. This is because the overarching purpose of Tesla Motors (and the reason I am funding the company) is to help expedite the move from a mine-and-burn hydrocarbon economy towards a solar electric economy, which I believe to be the primary, but not exclusive, sustainable solution.

Critical to making that happen is an electric car without compromises, which is why the Tesla Roadster is designed to beat a gasoline sports car like a Porsche or Ferrari in a head to head showdown. Then, over and above that fact, it has twice the energy efficiency of a Prius. Even so, some may question whether this actually does any good for the world. Are we really in need of another high performance sports car? Will it actually make a difference to global carbon emissions?

Well, the answers are no and not much. However, that misses the point, unless you understand the secret master plan alluded to above. Almost any new technology initially has high unit cost before it can be optimized and this is no less true for electric cars. The strategy of Tesla is to enter at the high end of the market, where customers are prepared to pay a premium, and then drive down market as fast as possible to higher unit volume and lower prices with each successive model.

Without giving away too much, I can say that the second model will be a sporty four door family car at roughly half the $89k price point of the Tesla Roadster and the third model will be even more affordable. In keeping with a fast growing technology company, all free cash flow is plowed back into R&D to drive down the costs and bring the follow on products to market as fast as possible. When someone buys the Tesla Roadster sports car, they are actually helping pay for development of the low cost family car.

Now I’d like to address two repeated arguments against electric vehicles — battery disposal and power plant emissions. The answer to the first is short and simple, the second requires a bit of math:

Batteries that are not toxic to the environment!
I wouldn’t recommend them as a dessert topping, but the Tesla Motors Lithium-Ion cells are not classified as hazardous and are landfill safe. However, dumping them in the trash would be throwing money away, since the battery pack can be sold to recycling companies (unsubsidized) at the end of its greater than 100,000-mile design life. Moreover, the battery isn’t dead at that point, it just has less range.

Power Plant Emissions aka “The Long Tailpipe”
(For a more detailed version of this argument, please see the white paper written by Martin and Marc.)

A common rebuttal to electric vehicles as a solution to carbon emissions is that they simply transfer the CO2 emissions to the power plant. The obvious counter is that one can develop grid electric power from a variety of means, many of which, like hydro, wind, geothermal, nuclear, solar, etc. involve no CO2 emissions. However, let’s assume for the moment that the electricity is generated from a hydrocarbon source like natural gas, the most popular fuel for new US power plants in recent years.

The H-System Combined Cycle Generator from General Electric is 60% efficient in turning natural gas into electricity. "Combined Cycle" is where the natural gas is burned to generate electricity and then the waste heat is used to create steam that powers a second generator. Natural gas recovery is 97.5% efficient, processing is also 97.5% efficient and then transmission efficiency over the electric grid is 92% on average. This gives us a well-to-electric-outlet efficiency of 97.5% x 97.5% x 60% x 92% = 52.5%.

Despite a body shape, tires and gearing aimed at high performance rather than peak efficiency, the Tesla Roadster requires 0.4 MJ per kilometer or, stated another way, will travel 2.53 km per mega-joule of electricity. The full cycle charge and discharge efficiency of the Tesla Roadster is 86%, which means that for every 100 MJ of electricity used to charge the battery, about 86 MJ reaches the motor.

Bringing the math together, we get the final figure of merit of 2.53 km/MJ x 86% x 52.5% = 1.14 km/MJ. Let’s compare that to the Prius and a few other options normally considered energy efficient.

The fully considered well-to-wheel efficiency of a gasoline powered car is equal to the energy content of gasoline (34.3 MJ/liter) minus the refinement & transportation losses (18.3%), multiplied by the miles per gallon or km per liter. The Prius at an EPA rated 55 mpg therefore has an energy efficiency of 0.56 km/MJ. This is actually an excellent number compared with a “normal” car like the Toyota Camry at 0.28 km/MJ.

Note the term hybrid as applied to cars currently on the road is a misnomer. They are really just gasoline powered cars with a little battery assistance and, unless you are one of the handful who have an aftermarket hack, the little battery has to be charged from the gasoline engine. Therefore, they can be considered simply as slightly more efficient gasoline powered cars. If the EPA certified mileage is 55 mpg, then it is indistinguishable from a non-hybrid that achieves 55 mpg. As a friend of mine says, a world 100% full of Prius drivers is still 100% addicted to oil.

The CO2 content of any given source fuel is well understood. Natural gas is 14.4 grams of carbon per mega-joule and oil is 19.9 grams of carbon per mega-joule. Applying those carbon content levels to the vehicle efficiencies, including as a reference the Honda combusted natural gas and Honda fuel cell natural gas vehicles, the hands down winner is pure electric:

Car   Energy Source   CO2 Content   Efficiency   CO2 Emissions
Honda CNG   Natural Gas   14.4 g/MJ   0.32 km/MJ   45.0 g/km
Honda FCX   Nat Gas-Fuel Cell   14.4 g/MJ   0.35 km/MJ   41.1 g/km
Toyota Prius   Oil   19.9 g/MJ   0.56 km/MJ   35.8 g/km
Tesla Roadster   Nat Gas-Electric   14.4 g/MJ   1.14 km/MJ   12.6 g/km
 

The Tesla Roadster still wins by a hefty margin if you assume the average CO2 per joule of US power production. The higher CO2 content of coal compared to natural gas is offset by the negligible CO2 content of hydro, nuclear, geothermal, wind, solar, etc. The exact power production mixture varies from one part of the country to another and is changing over time, so natural gas is used here as a fixed yardstick.

Becoming Energy Positive
I should mention that Tesla Motors will be co-marketing sustainable energy products from other companies along with the car. For example, among other choices, we will be offering a modestly sized and priced solar panel from SolarCity, a photovoltaics company (where I am also the principal financier). This system can be installed on your roof in an out of the way location, because of its small size, or set up as a carport and will generate about 50 miles per day of electricity.

If you travel less than 350 miles per week, you will therefore be “energy positive” with respect to your personal transportation. This is a step beyond conserving or even nullifying your use of energy for transport – you will actually be putting more energy back into the system than you consume in transportation! So, in short, the master plan is:

Build sports car
Use that money to build an affordable car
Use that money to build an even more affordable car
While doing above, also provide zero emission electric power generation options
Don't tell anyone.
 

https://www.tesla.com/en_NZ/blog/secret-tesla-motors-master-plan-just-between-you-and-me

Master Plan, Part Deux
Elon Musk July 20, 2016

The first master plan that I wrote 10 years ago is now in the final stages of completion. It wasn't all that complicated and basically consisted of:

Create a low volume car, which would necessarily be expensive
Use that money to develop a medium volume car at a lower price
Use that money to create an affordable, high volume car
And...
Provide solar power. No kidding, this has literally been on our website for 10 years.
The reason we had to start off with step 1 was that it was all I could afford to do with what I made from PayPal. I thought our chances of success were so low that I didn't want to risk anyone's funds in the beginning but my own. The list of successful car company startups is short. As of 2016, the number of American car companies that haven't gone bankrupt is a grand total of two: Ford and Tesla. Starting a car company is idiotic and an electric car company is idiocy squared.

Also, a low volume car means a much smaller, simpler factory, albeit with most things done by hand. Without economies of scale, anything we built would be expensive, whether it was an economy sedan or a sports car. While at least some people would be prepared to pay a high price for a sports car, no one was going to pay $100k for an electric Honda Civic, no matter how cool it looked.

Part of the reason I wrote the first master plan was to defend against the inevitable attacks Tesla would face accusing us of just caring about making cars for rich people, implying that we felt there was a shortage of sports car companies or some other bizarre rationale. Unfortunately, the blog didn't stop countless attack articles on exactly these grounds, so it pretty much completely failed that objective.

However, the main reason was to explain how our actions fit into a larger picture, so that they would seem less random. The point of all this was, and remains, accelerating the advent of sustainable energy, so that we can imagine far into the future and life is still good. That's what "sustainable" means. It's not some silly, hippy thing -- it matters for everyone.

By definition, we must at some point achieve a sustainable energy economy or we will run out of fossil fuels to burn and civilization will collapse. Given that we must get off fossil fuels anyway and that virtually all scientists agree that dramatically increasing atmospheric and oceanic carbon levels is insane, the faster we achieve sustainability, the better.

Here is what we plan to do to make that day come sooner:

Integrate Energy Generation and Storage
Create a smoothly integrated and beautiful solar-roof-with-battery product that just works, empowering the individual as their own utility, and then scale that throughout the world. One ordering experience, one installation, one service contact, one phone app.

We can't do this well if Tesla and SolarCity are different companies, which is why we need to combine and break down the barriers inherent to being separate companies. That they are separate at all, despite similar origins and pursuit of the same overarching goal of sustainable energy, is largely an accident of history. Now that Tesla is ready to scale Powerwall and SolarCity is ready to provide highly differentiated solar, the time has come to bring them together.

Expand to Cover the Major Forms of Terrestrial Transport
Today, Tesla addresses two relatively small segments of premium sedans and SUVs. With the Model 3, a future compact SUV and a new kind of pickup truck, we plan to address most of the consumer market. A lower cost vehicle than the Model 3 is unlikely to be necessary, because of the third part of the plan described below.

What really matters to accelerate a sustainable future is being able to scale up production volume as quickly as possible. That is why Tesla engineering has transitioned to focus heavily on designing the machine that makes the machine -- turning the factory itself into a product. A first principles physics analysis of automotive production suggests that somewhere between a 5 to 10 fold improvement is achievable by version 3 on a roughly 2 year iteration cycle. The first Model 3 factory machine should be thought of as version 0.5, with version 1.0 probably in 2018.

In addition to consumer vehicles, there are two other types of electric vehicle needed: heavy-duty trucks and high passenger-density urban transport. Both are in the early stages of development at Tesla and should be ready for unveiling next year. We believe the Tesla Semi will deliver a substantial reduction in the cost of cargo transport, while increasing safety and making it really fun to operate.

With the advent of autonomy, it will probably make sense to shrink the size of buses and transition the role of bus driver to that of fleet manager. Traffic congestion would improve due to increased passenger areal density by eliminating the center aisle and putting seats where there are currently entryways, and matching acceleration and braking to other vehicles, thus avoiding the inertial impedance to smooth traffic flow of traditional heavy buses. It would also take people all the way to their destination. Fixed summon buttons at existing bus stops would serve those who don't have a phone. Design accommodates wheelchairs, strollers and bikes.

Autonomy
As the technology matures, all Tesla vehicles will have the hardware necessary to be fully self-driving with fail-operational capability, meaning that any given system in the car could break and your car will still drive itself safely. It is important to emphasize that refinement and validation of the software will take much longer than putting in place the cameras, radar, sonar and computing hardware.

Even once the software is highly refined and far better than the average human driver, there will still be a significant time gap, varying widely by jurisdiction, before true self-driving is approved by regulators. We expect that worldwide regulatory approval will require something on the order of 6 billion miles (10 billion km). Current fleet learning is happening at just over 3 million miles (5 million km) per day.

I should add a note here to explain why Tesla is deploying partial autonomy now, rather than waiting until some point in the future. The most important reason is that, when used correctly, it is already significantly safer than a person driving by themselves and it would therefore be morally reprehensible to delay release simply for fear of bad press or some mercantile calculation of legal liability.

According to the recently released 2015 NHTSA report, automotive fatalities increased by 8% to one death every 89 million miles. Autopilot miles will soon exceed twice that number and the system gets better every day. It would no more make sense to disable Tesla's Autopilot, as some have called for, than it would to disable autopilot in aircraft, after which our system is named.

It is also important to explain why we refer to Autopilot as "beta". This is not beta software in any normal sense of the word. Every release goes through extensive internal validation before it reaches any customers. It is called beta in order to decrease complacency and indicate that it will continue to improve (Autopilot is always off by default). Once we get to the point where Autopilot is approximately 10 times safer than the US vehicle average, the beta label will be removed.

Sharing
When true self-driving is approved by regulators, it will mean that you will be able to summon your Tesla from pretty much anywhere. Once it picks you up, you will be able to sleep, read or do anything else enroute to your destination.

You will also be able to add your car to the Tesla shared fleet just by tapping a button on the Tesla phone app and have it generate income for you while you're at work or on vacation, significantly offsetting and at times potentially exceeding the monthly loan or lease cost. This dramatically lowers the true cost of ownership to the point where almost anyone could own a Tesla. Since most cars are only in use by their owner for 5% to 10% of the day, the fundamental economic utility of a true self-driving car is likely to be several times that of a car which is not.

In cities where demand exceeds the supply of customer-owned cars, Tesla will operate its own fleet, ensuring you can always hail a ride from us no matter where you are.

So, in short, Master Plan, Part Deux is:

Create stunning solar roofs with seamlessly integrated battery storage
Expand the electric vehicle product line to address all major segments
Develop a self-driving capability that is 10X safer than manual via massive fleet learning
Enable your car to make money for you when you aren't using it
 

https://www.tesla.com/en_NZ/blog/master-plan-part-deux

If you are going to comment please read the thread and at have at lest some idea about the subject in hand .
Ignorance is excusable  for a new comer not for some one who has commented on this thread many times....

[NeilT]

So for all the comments talking about Tesla and being elite and producing cars which are not needed and totally against public transport, etc, etc, etc.

In addition to consumer vehicles, there are two other types of electric vehicle needed: heavy-duty trucks and high passenger-density urban transport.

and

With the advent of autonomy, it will probably make sense to shrink the size of buses and transition the role of bus driver to that of fleet manager. Traffic congestion would improve due to increased passenger areal density by eliminating the center aisle and putting seats where there are currently entryways, and matching acceleration and braking to other vehicles, thus avoiding the inertial impedance to smooth traffic flow of traditional heavy buses. It would also take people all the way to their destination. Fixed summon buttons at existing bus stops would serve those who don't have a phone. Design accommodates wheelchairs, strollers and bikes.

Tesla the vision.  High powered, expensive, personal vehicles.  You have it from the horses mouth.

What is totally clear is that the views of public transport are driven by ideology. 

There are those who want to push people into a mould where public transport suits the transport provider and not the people and people will just have to suck it up and work their lives around it.

Then there are those who believe that public transport should be flexible to the needs of the people and that people should be inconvenienced as little as possible.  Much like a personal vehicle but without personal ownership.

It is extremely clear to see which side of the political divide these two viewpoints sit.

[NeilT]

Teslarati is reporting that the MIC model 3 is starting to ramp up to a higher cadence and more vehicles are piling up ready for transport to delivery centres.

https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-gigafactory-shanghai-model-3-output-q3-2020-video/

Initially quite a large % of the vehicle was made outside China and had to be shipped in.  Probably from manufacturing in the states.  So we have to wonder just how much the component output in China has ramped up.

This also has an impact all the way down the line as China taking over US components will increase the available components for Fremont to ramp up even further.

When looking at the volumes of vehicles and trying to factor in Q3/4 capacity it is something to factor in.  Also Shanghai is still only running two shifts.  I have to assume that when the Drivetrain facility and the foundry is complete, the M3 building will move to 3 shifts.  Increasing output again.

Cleantechnica reported that Tesla expected to be able to produce a run rate of 500,000 M3 and Model Y vehicles from Fremont by Dec 2020.

https://cleantechnica.com/2020/08/06/tesla-ramping-up-fremont-factory-model-3-y-production-to-500000-per-year-by-end-of-2020/

But that ignores the fact that Tesla is still expecting to produce around 100,000 Models X/S too. Giving Fremont a run rate of 600,000 per year.

With ModelY coming online in Shanghai in Q1 2020 and M3 already at 300,000 per year cadence by then on 3 shifts, we could expect Tesla total vehicle volume in 2021 to be around 1.1m without Berlin or Texas.

I would expect Tesla volume to be between 1.3m and 1.7m for 2021 and I am expecting Tesla to produce a profit in most quarters of that time and to continue to increase positive cash flow.

I'm wondering just how far Tesla has to go before being determined a success?  Does it really have to produce more revenue than Ford?  Outsell Toyota?  Put GM back into Administration, although GM, it appears, has managed to borrow and sequester a $50bn fund which should keep them burning money for quite a while.  Whether GM will be able to pay it back again is another matter.

So I'm wondering.  Where is the bar.  Is it Shanghai fully operational and ramped up?  Is it Berlin fully operational and ramped up?  Is it Cybertruck delivering and orders standing up or is it The Semi in full production?

I know that some people won't believe that Tesla will be a success until it takes over half the car manufacturing in the world.  But besides an unreasonable doubt, what do we set the bar at?

[NeilT]

And as a reminder here is post 1:

This thread is to be used for the most part to post articles that Tesla Inc. is either successfully implementing its business model, or that it's failing to do so. The Internet is full of tiresome discussions on this subject, so I'd appreciate it if you partake in them elsewhere. Post your evidence for either stance, and then exercise patience.

Hard to post evidence for a stance if you cannot discuss your stance, what is behind it, why you believe it and how you expect that your evidence fits the stance.

Just dumping stuff and shouting "see I'm right", without discussing it, is snowflake territory and I thought we weren't.

[oren]

Is it Cybertruck delivering and orders standing up or is it The Semi in full production?

Yes this would be nice, especially the Semi after so much time.

[NeilT]

Is it Cybertruck delivering and orders standing up or is it The Semi in full production?

Yes this would be nice, especially the Semi after so much time.

I can't remember, I thought the 3 was longer?

Note I specifically didn't mention FSD, HW4 or solar roof.  Until FSD and HW4, nobody is going to measure Tesla against anything other than vehicles sold.

HW4 does give some interesting insights though.  3 times faster than 3, 430 TOPS, faster than the Nvidia Drive AGX (announced in December, delivery date???), plus, if it is still 75w, slightly more than half the power consumption of the first AGX.  Interestingly the second iteration of AGX is suposed to be 2,000 TOPS and 750W

With FSD and enough manufacturing capacity, it will warp the entire vehicle market.  But that is supposition right now.  Production of M3 and ModelY are real facts we can rely on.  It's old hat, old tech, reliable and known.

Would that we could have said that in Q1 2018!

[Sigmetnow]

And as a reminder here is post 1:

This thread is to be used for the most part to post articles that Tesla Inc. is either successfully implementing its business model, or that it's failing to do so. The Internet is full of tiresome discussions on this subject, so I'd appreciate it if you partake in them elsewhere. Post your evidence for either stance, and then exercise patience.

Hard to post evidence for a stance if you cannot discuss your stance, what is behind it, why you believe it and how you expect that your evidence fits the stance.

Just dumping stuff and shouting "see I'm right", without discussing it, is snowflake territory and I thought we weren't.

Neven’s objective in splitting off the contentious subject of Tesla into its own thread was to prevent the tiresome back-and-forth opinions it engenders.  The idea was to replace those repetitive arguments with a thread limited to posting various Tesla articles of whatever slant the poster preferred, and then trust the readers to decide for themselves what is right or wrong. 

”Exercise patience”

Time tells the truth.

Edit:  Tesla did not go bankrupt.  TSLA stock did not go to zero.  The Model 3 exists, big time.  GigaShanghai is shipping Teslas.  Etc. 

[NeilT]

So we replace our tiresome back and forth with the tiresome back and forth of others, simply presenting them, without any thought, analysis or insight.  Even if those articles are very vertically integrated with the viewpoint of the author?

In the end, as has been shown, it's not really worth that much.  Tesla supporters will post Tesla supporting stuff and Tesla bears will post stuff knocking Tesla down.

That won't change, ever, even if Tesla owns half the vehicle market.

Value?  That's up to the reader.

Personally I've read just about everything which gets posted here before it gets  posted.  I would like, though, a chance to discuss it with a community that has varied opinions.

Having said all of that, I LOVE what is going on with Nikola right now.  The king has no clothes....

[nanning]

Is it Cybertruck delivering and orders standing up or is it The Semi in full production?

Yes this would be nice, especially the Semi after so much time.

I can't remember, I thought the 3 was longer?

Note I specifically didn't mention FSD, HW4 or solar roof.  Until FSD and HW4, nobody is going to measure Tesla against anything other than vehicles sold.

HW4 does give some interesting insights though.  3 times faster than 3, 430 TOPS, faster than the Nvidia Drive AGX (announced in December, delivery date???), plus, if it is still 75w, slightly more than half the power consumption of the first AGX.  Interestingly the second iteration of AGX is suposed to be 2,000 TOPS and 750W

With FSD and enough manufacturing capacity, it will warp the entire vehicle market.  But that is supposition right now.  Production of M3 and ModelY are real facts we can rely on.  It's old hat, old tech, reliable and known.

Would that we could have said that in Q1 2018!

In my opinion, this is a completely off-topic post.
This is the 'drewling' consumer talking. Specs about a product from Tesla with smileys.

Serious other views get blown away.

Why do have this on the forum? Have we lost our scientific attitudes?

[kassy]

It´s the roll eye smiley. It is about the relative energy use of the chips in question which is actually important in the equation.

[KiwiGriff]

10 times the energy used and only one tenth the processing speed.
It is like compering a modern LCD high definition TV with a 26" B&W CRT circa 1970....
 

[Archimid]

I think Tesla glory is reached when maximum acceleration of the transition to a sustainable world is reached.

In ground transportation, maximum acceleration is reached when the exponential growth phase of EVs make fossil fuels obsolete. It will look something like Fremont is the fractional number, then giga china is the 1 step on the exponential run. Then 2 new gigafactories a year ( texas, germany),  then 4 new gigafactories, then 8 new gigafactories, each of them becoming more efficient over time.

Once this acceleration reaches a peak, maximum acceleration is reached. Glory.

A similar concept applies to Tesla energy.

Failure is bankruptcy. If Tesla is too slow accelerating the transition, failure is guaranteed by climate change.

[oren]

Failure is bankruptcy, which I think at this stage is nearly impossible.
Success is when all main types of cars being sold today have been covered by Tesla with attractive offerings available worldwide that eat away the demand to ICE.
Sedan - 3.
Crossover/7-seater familymobile - Y.
Pickup truck - CyberTruck (announced, not available).
Small cheap city car - vaguely mentioned as future direction.
Passenger Van (for taxis, shuttles and small public transport) - not mentioned.

Add to that:
Semi truck - the Semi (announced, not available).
City truck - not mentioned.
Bus chassis with engine and drivetrain - not mentioned.

All "not mentioned" types could be made in partnership with Tesla supplying the EV part.

Add to that: Availability in many more countries, where serious ICE car demand exists today.

[Archimid]

Substract from that the demand reduction introduced by million mile power trains, ev taxi networks and boring tunnel cars.

[nanning]

Another view 

[NeilT]

In my opinion, this is a completely off-topic post.
This is the 'drewling' consumer talking. Specs about a product from Tesla with smileys.

Serious other views get blown away.

Why do have this on the forum? Have we lost our scientific attitudes?

Banging on about something Tesla is not doing, just because they haven't completed their full plan yet, that's on topic.

Explaining in a bit of detail why Tesla may completely tear the entire personal vehicle market apart is off topic..

Excellent.

You completely ignored the parts of Musk's master plan that I highlighted which dismantles your rant about Tesla only producing high priced "elite" personal vehicles.  In fact Musk has really thought more about it than the vast majority of people who support public transport.

But, please, tell me it is off topic.

That is how you shut down debate.

[oren]

Nanning your input is much appreciated and noted, but I think we can't ignore that BAU is going on around us, whether we like it or not and whether Tesla exists or not. 90 million passenger cars sold globally per year, you can't solve that by writing posts on an Internet forum and making a (very respectable) example in your own life of how consumption can be stopped.
So in parallel to trying to stop BAU, which has rather failed in the last few decades but obviously the effort needs to continue, we need another strategy which is trying to make BAU less harmful. We all realize this strategy will fail in the long run due to the Earth running out of resources and AGW running out of time, but it's better than nothing and it buys a bit of time
Tesla is not trying to stop BAU, which is why this is usually not much relevant to this thread but is relevant to the problem in general. Tesla is trying to advance the lesser goal of making BAU less harmful.

[NeilT]

Add to that: Availability in many more countries, where serious ICE car demand exists today.

Rumours right now, but.

Bloomberg has reported that Tesla is developing plans to begin exporting from Giga Shanghai, citing anonymous sources.

"China-built Model 3s for delivery outside the country likely will start mass production in the fourth quarter

https://www.thestreet.com/.amp-tesladaily/tesla/news/is-tesla-planning-to-export-from-giga-shanghai

[NeilT]

10 times the energy used and only one tenth the processing speed.
It is like compering a modern LCD high definition TV with a 26" B&W CRT circa 1970....
 

To be honest I thought it was pretty clear what I was saying, but let me spell it out more simply.

Tesla FSD has the potential, with robotaxis, to change the landscape of Vehicle ownership forever.

Today the hardware driving FSD is just about enough with smart programming, to replace a human, by emulating what a human does.  We don't have lidar sensors, we have two eyes and a brain which has been trained

By increasing HW3 to triple "just enough", Tesla gains the ability to make the FSD comprehensive.

To do that you need the grunt to process images and make decisions.  That is what we do and, for the most, we do it very well.

The key competitor to Tesla HW is Nvidia.  Witnessed by the fact that Tesla used to use their hardware until Nvidia fell behind the needs of Tesla.

It has already been covered here several times, that the Nvidia offering uses too much power for too little ability.  I didn't think I had to go there again.

Nvidia's response to HW3 is to announce a new chip which produces less ability than HW4, for close to 2 times the power consumption of HW3 and a road map to 5 times the ability of HW4 for 10 times the power consumption.

Put another way, using the projected Nvidia hardware, A tesla would need special cooling for the computer and would drive about 2.5 miles less, every hour, than with the Tesla computer.

Never mind the fact that the gap between Nvidia announcements and actual product is about 2 years, which puts Tesla ahead again.

All of this means that Tesla vertical integration puts them ahead of the market, again, where their competitors can't even buy a competitive computer, let alone have the ability to use it to beat Tesla.

Personally I thought that having the right technology to gain an unassailable advantage in your chosen market segment was relevant to Glory.

Apparently I'm wrong

[Jim Hunt]

Personally I thought that having the right technology to gain an unassailable advantage in your chosen market segment was relevant to Glory.

Apparently I'm wrong

Of course you're not wrong, but have you previously heard of the Wunderbox?

https://V2G.co.uk/2020/08/lucid-air-supports-ac-ccs-v2g/#Sep-10

[NeilT]

No Jim I hadn't. Sadly lacking in motivation to chase V2G technology right now.  I know it will be vital to balance a heavily renewable biased grid in the future but it just doesn't touch enough people deeply enough today.

True you could say that Tesla may fail in the end if they continue to ignore the technology and it matures away from them.  Then again you could argue that a Tesla + powerwall does the same thing.

Being different doesn't seem to have harmed Apple that much, maybe Tesla will be able to get far enough out front to make their own standard?

[Sigmetnow]

< Tesla is now responding to traffic lights and stop signs all over the world.    This stonk [sic] is so undervalued.
Elon Musk (@elonmusk) 9/12/20, 11:12 AM
And this still isn’t using the dramatically better “4D” (aka simultaneous surround video from 8 cameras) architecture
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1304799934273654784
< How’s the rewrite coming?
Elon Musk: Releasing private beta in 2 to 4 weeks, public beta (early access owners who opt in) 4 to 6 weeks after that, then all US Tesla owners mid December. Above schedule is contingent upon not encountering major unexpected setbacks.

< Is that the one that’s running in your personal car already, aka close to zero interventions from home to work? …
Elon Musk: Yes

< Will this make tracking targets across all cameras more stable?
Elon Musk: Much
< So by 4D, do you mean stitching the images of 8 cameras into a single frame of frames (3D) before labeling (4D)?
Elon Musk: All frames stitched to single frame (tricky, as all cameras overlap in different ways) & then creating video segments for labeling & training. Everything from the labeling tools themselves to training to inference had to be rewritten.
< Noticed this problematic for long trucks that overlap across multiple cameras.
Elon Musk: Exactly. Problems like that have been addressed.

<< Also having so much video data of simultaneous 8 cameras can help with the Dojo training. Similar to the GPT-3 training, now as GPT-3 is able to predict the next word for any input sequence with amazing results, Dojo will be the same for Autopilot driving policy ...
Elon Musk: Yes. Good insight.

Reflex Research (@ReflexFunds) 8/10/20, 2:17 PM
How can Tesla progress from its current Autopilot product to Robotaxis?
1) I think the AP driver assist product is an extremely valuable feature; Human+AP already looks statistically safer than human alone & it makes long distance driving far less tiring.

[thread…]

https://twitter.com/reflexfunds/status/1292887757879222272

[NeilT]

Tesla has started taking on partners for installing Solar Roof.

https://electrek.co/2020/09/14/tesla-partners-thid-party-companies-install-solar-roof-tiles/

Things are moving again. Covid has just about killed 2019 for Solar Roof but it is moving forwared anyway.

[NeilT]

I know that Q3 results are only a week away, but it will be interesting to test Troy Teslike's delivery estimates for Q3, Especially given his current estimate for Q4.

Correction he has an update from yesterday

https://cleantechnica.com/2020/09/15/tesla-delivery-estimate-q3-2020-144000-q4-2020-187000/#:~:text=The%20following%20is%20an%20update,Q4%2C%20and%20510%2C387%20for%202020.

[gerontocrat]

If they make the deliveries as estimated, it's a case of satisfactory progress.
No estimates on solar energy?

There was some conversations day or two(?) back about whther this thread is redundant. I am sure it is not.

The road to glory is full of hazards - known risks now, e.g.
- US & China get really serious about their cold war. China confiscates politically sensitive assets - e.g the Shanghai factory. Far-fetched**?
- Covid-19 comes back with a roar, economies totter and fall.

In the future? A Bevy of Black Swans is out there. Those who think it's a case of how many new factories and how soon in a seamless glidepath to the Sunny Uplands are doomeed to disappointment.
______________________________________
** In 1911 an infuential book was published claiming that the economies of the European Great Powers were so intertwined that a war between them was inconceivable. Ho hum, that didn't end well.

[crandles]

** In 1911 an infuential book was published claiming that the economies of the European Great Powers were so intertwined that a war between them was inconceivable. Ho hum, that didn't end well.

The Germans don't want war. Nobody wants war, except some half-civilized folks in the Balkans. And why? There's too much at stake these days. Everything to lose and nothing to gain by war.

Just let me finish, Eric. You've a lot to learn yet. And I'm talking as a hard headed, practical man of business. And I say there isn't a chance of war. The world's developing so fast that it'll make war impossible.
...
Titanic ... absolutely unsinkable

Says Mr Birling in An Inspector Calls set in 1912 written 1945

but I assume you are referring to "The Great Illusion" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Great_Illusion
which won the 1933 nobel peace prize (first published 1909 with various subsequent editions)

[Sigmetnow]

—- Giga Berlin: paint
Tesla Giga Berlin to Install a Zero Environmental Impact Paint Shop from Geico Taikisha

Tesla Giga Berlin will get the world's most advanced paint shop. Using the new painting technology, Tesla cars will have a special, attractive, and lively look. Giga Berlin will have an advanced paint shop, which will be able to apply paint in three layers. Several layers of paint give the color a realistic depth, which makes the colors brighter than possible with traditional paint systems.

“If you get dimension, there’s something called flop, where you see the change in color with curvature,” said Tesla CEO Elon Musk. “If you can do something like lay down a gloss layer, then lay down a layer with color tint, then lay down another gloss layer, you can get kind of a 3D feeling to the paint. It just pops. It's so much better than anything else. We’re going to do this in Berlin for the first time.”

Tesmanian reported yesterday* that equipment for Giga Berlin will be supplied by SCHOLPP, a subsidiary just a few miles from the factory. SCHOLPP is available as an industrial transport and assembly service provider for all OEMs and industrial suppliers supplying machines and systems for Tesla's new factory in Germany.
...
The equipment for the world's most advanced paint shop will be supplied by Geico Taikisha. Geico is a world leader in the design and construction of turnkey automated auto body paint shops.

With the Pardis Project, launched in 2005, Geico Taikisha was the world’s first company to offer a zero environmental impact paintshop, reducing consumption by 70%. The target date set for June 16, 2020, was achieved 3 years ahead of schedule, in 2017.

The Smart Paintshop by Geico revolutionizes auto body paintshops with innovative and energy-efficient 4.0 technologies. It received the SurCar Cannes Innovation Award for the best research and innovation worldwide. ...

https://www.tesmanian.com/blogs/tesmanian-blog/giga-berlin-will-install-a-zero-environmental-impact-paint-shop-from-geico-taikisha

*Tesla Giga Berlin Update: General Assembly Building Construction & More
https://www.tesmanian.com/blogs/tesmanian-blog/tesla-giga-berlin-update-general-assembly-building-construction-more

[vox_mundi]

Tesla Driver Found Asleep at Wheel of Self-Driving Car Doing 150km/h
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/17/canada-tesla-driver-alberta-highway-speeding

... “The car appeared to be self-driving, traveling over 140km/h, with both front seats completely reclined and both occupants appearing to be asleep,” the RCMP said in a statement.

After the police flashed their lights, however, the Tesla electric vehicle reportedly sped up to “exactly” 150km/h, according to police. The speed limit on most of Canada’s highway network is 110km/h.

... Two months earlier a Tesla vehicle was spotted driving on the wrong side of the road – without a driver.
https://globalnews.ca/news/6131588/video-bc-self-driving-tesla-wrong-side-road/

[NeilT]

Stupid is as stupid does.

There are plenty of articles out there for assistance features in other cars.  BMW even has a hands off for low speed travel modes and Cadillac has supercriuse mode which is hands off.

IIHS has an article which discusses how L2 systems, in particular, can make it more difficult for drivers to engage with a vehicle under L2 control.

https://www.iihs.org/news/detail/automated-systems-need-stronger-safeguards-to-keep-drivers-focused-on-the-road

However I'm fully in agreement that if a driver is inattentive and ignores warnings, then the vehicle should come to a safe halt off the highway.

The obvious answer should be to take most, or all, decisions away from the driver and leave them with the computer.  So L4/5.  That doesn't seem to be politically acceptable though.

Most interesting to me is that it is only Tesla, today, which is capable of sustaining driving in this way as if it was L4/5.

Nobody is crashing other cars because they know that if they let the car drive itself, then it will crash.

Which is a very strong position for Tesla.  More interestingly is that Tesla is races ahead, rather than laps ahead, of other contenders in terms of deployed features.

[nanning]

"Stupid is as stupid does."

That's your only comment on what Vox posted? Confirmation bias much?

NeilT, a self-driving Tesla car on the wrong side of the road without a driver? Have you read that?
And one doing 150km/h, i.e. 40 km/h too fast on auto pilot with the driver sleeping?
Clearly this is not acceptable self-driving software from a safety viewpoint. A car remains a >1000kg high speed potential weapon of mass destruction. With such a driver-less car and some software tweaks, you could easily do a terrorist attack without danger to yourself.

[NeilT]

NeilT, a self-driving Tesla car on the wrong side of the road without a driver? Have you read that?

So you are saying the Tesla just started itself up, got on the road and then drove somewhere on the wrong side of the road, all by itself?

Please clarify.  Because I read that as a Tesla with no visible driver in the drivers seat driving on the wrong side of the road.

There is no clarification of what age of the vehicle, hardware or version of AP the vehicle was running on.  All vital information in understanding if Tesla is putting out software, still, which is a problem or not.

I assumed the drivers were total idiots and the software was assisting in the idiocy because they had disabled the security features in some way.

Due to a total lack of detail, my viewpoint is totally as valid as yours.

Technology, generally, is neither good nor bad in itself.  In this case, what humans do with it is bad.

Therefore, stupid is as stupid does!

[oren]

Tesla autopilot software should be designed with stupid in mind and should not allow such stupidity to result in the described scenario. It should monitor that driver is reasonably alert and if not it should safely halt the car. It should also not accept such grossly over the speed limit parameters from the driver. Whoever wants to break the law flagrantly should do so under their own manual driving. Maximum setting should be 10%-15% above the local speed limit.
I can imagine any number of lawsuits should an AP car with a sleeping driver (with seat reclined!) hit someone.

[nanning]

So you are saying the Tesla just started itself up <snip>

Where does that come from? I haven't said anything of the sort.
"Please clarify" ?? What?

Please react to the matter and stay on topic of the post you're replying to.

--

Thank you for a good reply oren. I agree. But the vulnerability to software hacking and then doing a terrorist attack or kidnapping remains.

[kassy]

And that can happen with any normal car (with driver but that is not an issue) so that is not really relevant.

If you have the self drive system the car should stick to local speed limits.

[Sigmetnow]

Nothing in the articles I read says the driver did anything to disable the autopilot “nag” feature, which requires regular input to the steering wheel — more often, the faster the car goes.  It is more likely this was a joke than actually asleep.

[Sigmetnow]

Tesla Spent $0 for Ads in 2019, While Hyundai, Lincoln, & Jaguar Spent $1.5-2K Per Vehicle
https://www.tesmanian.com/blogs/tesmanian-blog/tesla-spent-0-ad-money-per-vehicle-sold-2019-vs-hyundai-2k-lincoln-1-9k-jaguar-1-5k

—-
Tesla Model Y to use one-piece front casting in Germany: report
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-model-y-single-piece-front-casting-giga-berlin/

—-
Sept 18
Tesla wins case against former employee accused of hacking, transferring data

(Reuters) - U.S. electric carmaker Tesla Inc won its case against a former employee, who was fired for hacking and transferring company data to third parties, according to court documents filed on Thursday.

Tesla had filed a lawsuit against Martin Tripp, who formerly worked at the Tesla Gigafactory in Nevada, in 2018 claiming that he had admitted to writing software that hacked the carmaker’s manufacturing operating system, transferring several gigabytes of its data to third parties and making false claims to the media. …

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-court-tripp-idUSKBN2690TD

—-
 
“Battery day?
More like... assault and battery... on legacy auto”
https://twitter.com/wholemarsblog/status/1306501311328731137