Tesla glory/failure

[oren]

Disagree but wrong thread for this discussion, as usual.

[Archimid]

Basically, the parts of the world that listen to Trump/Elon Musk/Neven have economies that are stopped because of the coronavirus. The parts of the world that listened to evidence and science have coronavirus mostly under control and their economies are thriving.

But yeah investor confidence is off topic, just like everything Oren doesn't like on this thread.

Oren, you know I respect your moderation and your post, but in this thread, your moderation is pure bias.

[NeilT]

It depends whether the statements of Musk are still relevant to the welfare of the company as a whole and it's success as a whole.

In Britain we have a classic example of negative CEO publicity.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/aug/22/gerald-ratner-jewellery-total-crap-1992-archive

A growing and vocal group in the UK are more in Tune with Musk than the government right now. Some of whom ripped me to shreds, back in April, for suggesting that the lockdowns would not work.

Their skepticisim of the government has reached an all time high as we are hit with second waves after unlocking without eradicating transfer.  Now suspicion of government power grabs is extremely high and very few believe what they are told by the government without significant verification.

It is hard to quantify what the eventual result will be of CEO comments, however it appears that it has not hurt any orders or deliveries to date.  This may be due to a simple lack of options for purchasers, or it may be due to the very high quality of the offering and a lack of concern as to whether the CEO is acting like an idiot or not.  You can read (acting like an idiot), any way you like, my version will probably not be the same as yours.

Whether or not Musk's tweetings will hurt Tesla in an environment where there are plenty of competitors and a sharp difference in pricing have yet to be seen as the competition is years behind and company breaking levels of cost for transition.

[Archimid]

NeilT
 Are Elon Musk positive statements "relevant to the welfare of the company as a whole and it's success as a whole."?

I believe so. Elon Musk is the man with a vision, a vision that many share and inspires many to greatness. Tesla is great because Elon's vision inspired some of the best people to work with Tesla.

Similarly, by abandoning science and joining misinformation he inspires mistrust and harm. He empowers those who are harming others just like he empowers those who create the great things Tesla produces.

Even if this is entropy relief, this was not the way.

[oren]

Archimid, luckily in this thread my moderation is non existent (not my section). But I still have personal opinions re appropriateness of subjects.
In any case I will not argue Covid (Neil's opinions) on a non-Covid thread.

[NeilT]

Musk's statements haven't harmed the company so far.

What I was attempting to highlight is that as this whole situation goes on, the slow moving groundswell of opinion is closing the gap between Musk's misinformation and the prevailing trust in governments.  Or the lack of it.

Whereas, before, Musk may have been seen as a greedy misinformer, as jobs vanish and lockdown assertions look like a long litany of broken promises, the view of Musk changes.

This is not about Covid, per se.  This is about communications and actions and the impact on a company who's CEO was making statements that wildly diverge from accepted norms.

Yet, as the situation goes on and politicians bow to the reality of the economy, there is confusion in the people.  After all, tell them one thing today and another in 5 years, you have a good chance of people simply taking up your new stance.  But if you reduce that 5 years to 5 months or 5 weeks and you, as a politician, will pay the price.

So as trust in governments falls, people go back an look, once again, at those unacceptable statements.

This is all valid to both Tesla and Musk.  Because the CEO is key to the success of the company and the company can still fail if the people turn against it because the CEO is behaving in a way they cannot condone.

Oren, did you actually read the Ratners article?  The CEO of the largest jewellers in the UK called a product they sold "crap".  The company went under.

That is the power of poor CEO communications and you can't just say "no you can't talk about this because we've got a Covid thread".

This is also critical to EV's and zero emissions transport.  If anyone thinks that VW would invest  close to €100bn to go EV without the threat of Tesla, think again.  The rest of the industry is the benchmark here, not VW.

[BeeKnees]

People being tired of partial and ineffective measures is not the same as Musks comments. 

Like others I'm not going to add more to this thread on this.

[kassy]

You can discuss Covid in the covid thread.

Investor confidence is important so don´t use it as a lame excuse to go off topic.

[NeilT]

OK I won't add to it here.  But I will say this.  You have very tightly scoped the Covid thread to what you want it to be "lessons learned".  Musk, his comments, how people view it, the impact on Tesla, they don't belong in that thread either.

[Sigmetnow]

—- China Model Y

Gary Black (@garyblack00) 11/30/20, 12:22 AM
$TSLA approved to start selling MIC Y in China. This is one of 8 catalysts we’ve been tracking for Dec/Jan, came about two weeks earlier than we expected, and increases odds Tesla can hit 500K deliveries goal for this year.

https://twitter.com/garyblack00/status/1333280226667847682

Breaking: Tesla Giga Shanghai-Made Model Y Granted Permit for Sales & Purchase Tax Exemption

The China-made Tesla Model Y has received a sales permit and has been included in the list of new energy vehicle models exempt from purchase tax.

The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) has included the domestic Model Y in the list of new energy vehicle models exempt from vehicle purchase tax, and the vehicle was recommended for the promotion and application of new energy vehicles this year. This means that Model Y is now legal for sale in China and owners will receive a tax exemption on the purchase. This is great news for anyone looking to purchase this model. ...

https://www.tesmanian.com/blogs/tesmanian-blog/miit-tesla-china-made-model-y-from-giga-shanghai-is-included-in-purchase-tax-exemption

—- FSD
Tesla could widen release of 'self-driving' software in two weeks
10:17 PM ET 11/27/2020

Nov 27 (Reuters) - Tesla Inc ( TSLA ) Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk said on Friday there will probably be a wider roll out of a new "Full Self Driving" software update in two weeks.

In October, Tesla released a beta, or test version, of what it calls a "Full Self Driving" software upgrade to an undisclosed number of "expert, careful" drivers.

"Probably going to a wider beta in 2 weeks," Musk said on Twitter, in a reply to a user asking if the software would be available in Minnesota.

Musk had said earlier it was planned that the latest upgrade would be widely released by the end of this year, with the system becoming more robust as it collected more data.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-selfdriving-idCAKBN288053

[Sigmetnow]

S&P’s decision on Tesla slated for after the close
Published: Nov. 30, 2020 at 2:37 p.m. ET

Addition in tranches thought to be more likely
S&P Dow Jones Indices will reveal how it will add Tesla Inc. to its benchmark S&P 500 index after the stock market closes on Monday.
Whether Tesla TSLA, -0.14% will be added all at once or in tranches will be known at 5:15 p.m. Eastern, an S&P Dow Jones Indices spokesperson confirmed.

Tesla is set to join the S&P at the start of trading on Dec. 21. Underscoring the complexity of adding the Silicon Valley car maker, valued at more than $551 billion, to the S&P 500 SPX, -0.59%, the index manager sought feedback from investors to determine how Tesla should be added.
Most investors believe that it will be added in tranches.
Joining the benchmark index for U.S. equities puts Tesla stock in the portfolios of countless index-tracking funds, cascading to the many managed funds that would have to add Tesla to their holdings to balance their portfolios.
Tesla will replace an S&P 500 company to be named later, as it gets closer to the rebalancing, S&P Dow Jones Indices has said.
The car maker is by far the largest company to be added to the benchmark index.

The pending S&P inclusion was the latest boost to the stock, sending its market cap soaring above $600 billion from a January valuation around $100 billion.
The shares have gained 594% this year, compared with gains around 11% for the S&P.

Competition selling cars to itself?
Kandi's stock tumbles after short seller Hindenburg takes aim at China-based EV maker

Shares of Kandi Technologies Group Inc. undefined tumbled 24.5% in active midday trading Monday, after short seller Hindenburg Research took aim at the China-based electric vehicle maker, alleging a "brazen scheme" to "falsify revenue using fake sales to undisclosed affiliates. Trading volume spiked to 29.5 million shares, already nearly double full-day average of about 15.0 million shares. The stock has now plunged 31.1% since closing at a 6-year high of $14.93 a week ago.

Hindenburg said it's investigation into the company's factories and customer locations found that most of Kandi's sales to its top customers over the last 12 months (LTM) have been to related parties. The largest customer representing 55% of LTM sales shares a phone number with a Kandi subsidiary and an executive with Kandi, Hindenburg said. The report also said that on a visit to the customer's location, a sign indicating it was a Kandi company was found. Kandi declined a MarketWatch request for comment. Despite Monday's selloff, Kandi's stock has still rallied 64.2% in November, while the iShares MSCI China ETF undefined has edged up 3.1% and the S&P 500 undefined has gained 10.6%.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/s-ps-decision-on-tesla-slated-for-after-the-close-11606765050

[Archimid]

We are not talking covid. We are talking Elon Musk reaction to Covid and how that affects investor confidence about the future of Tesla.

Tesla must be a transcendental company. It might get there, but it is not there yet. It will not get there with Elon Musk undervaluing life to the extent he is.

[Sigmetnow]

Tesla’s stock will be added to the S&P 500 in a single step before the open on Dec. 21

Tesla will be added to the S&P 500 in a single step despite its more than $500 billion market capitalization, S&P Dow Jones Indices said on Monday, forgoing a possible phased approach that was considered to ease the impact of adding such a large company to the U.S. stock benchmark.

The stock will be added at its full float-adjusted market capitalization before the open of trading on Dec. 21, the index provider said. Float-adjusted means that only shares available to the public are considered when evaluating a company’s weighting. The company that Tesla will replace will be named on Dec. 11, according to a press release.

The decision follows feedback from the investment community, which S&P Dow Jones Indices sought due to the difficulty of adding a company of Tesla’s size. The electric vehicle maker will be the largest company ever to be added to the S&P 500. …

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/30/tesla-to-be-addedto-the-sp-500-in-two-parts-to-account-for-its-size-an-unprecedented-move.html

—-
Tesla’s battery production plant in Germany to bring in another 10,000 jobs
November 28, 2020
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-battery-plant-giga-berlin-10k-jobs/

[KiwiGriff]

For Fucks Sake.
I listen to medical professionals when it comes to covid not the leader of a technology  company .
In NZ that would be https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ashley_Bloomfield first and foremost.
The entire musk said X on covid reminds me of the false experts pushed in the climate change debate.
Musks opinion on Covid has no more weight than mine as a random commentator on a blog.
Musk is not who anyone one with a reasonable number of  functioning brain cells would look to for leadership on a question  so far outside of his acknowledged  expertise.

[NeilT]

Let's make an analogy and not about a single issue.

Tesla is currently building in the Berlin area, spending tens of millions, without final approval to complete the building and manufacture vehicles.

Let us say that Musk makes himself someone who it is impossible to do business with, due to uncontrolled and strongly opinionated tweets which are well outside of accepted norms.  Someone German officials can't be seen to be giving permits to.   Because of his profile on the whole deal, it is extremely hard to separate Musk from Tesla as far as Giga Berlin goes.

Should the deal fail, Tesla will be faced with tens of millions more to make the site back to how it was.  It would also put Tesla back between 2 and 4 years on their expansion plans.

Or the German officials could simply put the approvals on hold, locking in all the work done to date but leaving it to "weather".  That could go on for years.

5 years from now that will not be a major issue to Tesla.  But, right now, it could be make or break for Tesla.

At the level and profile of Musk, communications are critical.  Witness the SEC action and the control of Musk vis a vis his company related tweets.

Right now it is quite hard, perception wise, to distance Musks tweets from company tweets.  Yes there are clear legal lines which must not be crossed.  But, today, Musk is the face of Tesla for good or bad.

I will discuss Musk and his communication style, as it pertains to Tesla, but I won't on this topic again.

[Archimid]

This is not about Covid, per se.  This is about communications and actions and the impact on a company who's CEO was making statements that wildly diverge from accepted norms.

NeilT to me is more fundamental than that.

1. Goal Setting: Before 2020 Elon Musk general attitude towards every problem was to aim as high as possible. His goals were so high that most people called them impossible, in many ways they were impossible, but through being surrounded by a lot of extremely bright and highly motivated people they overcome the odds and brought us to today.
 
  In 2020 that changed. While Tesla certainly has many ambitious goals ( Gigafactories, structural batteries). Their goals are no longer in the realm of the seemingly impossible. Their goals are just very very difficult. That's not enough for glory.

  His C19 tweets reflect the same attitude. With C19 he simply gave up. He didn't even try to fight it. He had Tesla do everything needed to meet the minimum legal requirements, Tesla did so perfectly, but that was it. He could have done so much more, and if he thought he couldn't ( or didn't want to for any reason), then at least he shouldn't get in the way. That's not the Elon Musk who tried to invent a mini-sub to rescue children stranded in a cave.

  For Tesla to get through the already baked in climate change we are going to need "rescue sub" Elon, not "Liberate Michigan!" Musk.


2. Valuation of life: I am convinced that Elon Musk's argument as to why C19 is not a threat is eventually rooted in his valuation of the life of C19 victims. Elderly with preexisting conditions. If you assign a low production potential to this group, then the short term impact of C19 is like the flu.

  A methodical, first principle approach's but only if you agree with Trump about certain valuations of life.

  Why a high valuation of life is important for Tesla? Fucking climate change. Climate change will take away life at a very fast pace. Having the awareness to fight for those lives comes from a high valuation of life. If at this very early stage of climate change, on a threat barely related to climate change, and he is already folding.
 
  It won't do. But if not him, who?

[kassy]

So first you project way too much on him and then you have to adjust that because a car maker also needs to fight Covid... This is very much your obsession.

I am pretty sure most investers only care about tweets that get him slapped by the SEC.

PS: NeilT declining permissions over tweets strikes me as very un German.

I think KiwiGriff sums it up pretty well.

[Sigmetnow]

Meanwhile, on Wall Street (who also don’t give a fuq today about how Elon feels about Covid), history is about to be made:

S&P's decision to add Tesla in one shot demonstrates the power of passive investing

S&P Dow Jones Indices has announced that Tesla will be added to the S&P 500 using the closing price on Dec. 18 in one single action.
S&P has been canvassing big institutional investors to try to figure out whether Tesla should be added in one fell swoop — on the close on Friday the 18th, which is a quadruple witch and the traditional day stocks are rebalanced in the S&P — or whether it should be split up into several separate trading days.

The concern: including Tesla in the S&P on the close on Dec.18, a quadruple witching expiration, along with a rebalancing of the S&P, will create a lot of trading volume and pressure on different stocks.

That concern is well-founded, given Tesla's size.
This will be the largest rebalancing of the S&P 500 in history.
How big? Really big.
Tesla's current market cap is $546 billion. However, due to Elon Musk's ownership of 20%, the stock will enter the S&P with an 80% weighting, or about $437 billion.
Roughly 17% of the total value of the S&P 500 is tied to passive index investments, which would produce a need to buy about $72 billion in stock on the day of the rebalancing.

In order to buy $72 billion, you have to sell $72 billion. That's a lot of money, and a lot of pressure. Last quarter, by comparison, the whole rebalancing of the S&P was $32.4 billion. The highest it has ever been was September 2018, when it was $50.8 billion.

S&P has canvassed the trading community to ask what the best way to handle this would be: Should it all be done on the one day of the rebalancing (Dec. 18 — when there is the greatest liquidity), or should it be spread out over a number of days?
The pros of doing it on one day is that there is massive liquidity on the rebalancing. The cons is that this may create downward pressure on the stocks that have to be sold that may create order imbalances.
In theory, changing the weighting of a stock in an index should not change the price, since nothing fundamental is occurring. However, this would be the biggest rebalancing in history, and nobody is quite sure how it could play out.

Ultimately, S&P decided to rip off the band-aid and do it all at once.
What this demonstrates is the power of indexers. The true amount of money likely indexed to the S&P 500 directly is likely much higher than the official number of about 17%. There are many who do not formally license the index but "emulate" it by buying most of the components.
No one knows exactly how big this shadow community of "closet indexers" really is, but it certainly is not unreasonable to expect there could be an additional $30-$50 billion in buying in additional buying, on top of the $72 billion from "official" indexers.

That is a lot of buying.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/01/sps-decision-to-a-tesla-demonstrates-the-power-of-passive-investing.html

[zizek]

For Fucks Sake.
I listen to medical professionals when it comes to covid not the leader of a technology  company .
In NZ that would be https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ashley_Bloomfield first and foremost.
The entire musk said X on covid reminds me of the false experts pushed in the climate change debate.
Musks opinion on Covid has no more weight than mine as a random commentator on a blog.
Musk is not who anyone one with a reasonable number of  functioning brain cells would look to for leadership on a question  so far outside of his acknowledged  expertise.

hmmmmm. yeah, it's sort of why i never trust musk on climate change since he has absolutely no expertise and his background suggests he's a greenwashing grifter.  Dude has a bachelors in physics and economics. He used his famiy's apartheid emerald mining fortune as venture capital that cashed out big on the dotcom boom. He never engineered a tesla car, he never even started the company. He owns multiple mansions, flies around in a private jet, and donates to the republican party. But yeah, apparently the many, many, many Musk threads here on the ASI forums suggest he's an expert on sustainability.

[zizek]

So first you project way too much on him and then you have to adjust that because a car maker also needs to fight Covid... This is very much your obsession.

I am pretty sure most investers only care about tweets that get him slapped by the SEC.

PS: NeilT declining permissions over tweets strikes me as very un German.

I think KiwiGriff sums it up pretty well.

Musk pushed around State government to force people back into his factory during BOTH covid waves. He used his massive social media platform to defend his behaviour.  It's insane to think his covid comments are offtopic, considering he has a HUGE STAKE IN MAKING SURE PEOPLE WORK IN HIS FACTORIES. How many times do I have to say this. I feel like I'm going crazy. It's disgusting the mental gymnastics you'll go through to defend this guy.

[kassy]

You are missreading it.

Musk has a factory. That he wants it open instead of closed is a no brainer.

But that does not really matter to Tesla the company.

I approved the messages to balance some views on Musk but both versions of Musk (saint or satan) are not relevant to the company.

In fact if the addition to the S&P does not crash the world economy we should probably just call is a succes.

[Sigmetnow]

—- $TSLA

Pierre Ferragu (@p_ferragu) 11/30/20, 3:24 PM
$TSLA is at our price target. Out of job again!!

https://twitter.com/p_ferragu/status/1333507193308667904
Pierre is from New Street Research

—- Tripp lawsuit settled

ALEX  (@ajtourville) 12/1/20, 12:11 AM
Martin Tripp to pay Tesla $425,000 & to not disparage Tesla or any of its former or current executives or employees
A cautionary tale about letting TSLAQ ruin your life

https://twitter.com/ajtourville/status/1333639751585284098
At the link: the four pages of the agreement. 
[Tripp’s reveals, and his legal fight, were encouraged and funded by TSLAQ/shortsellers.]

Tesla wins long-standing feud with ex-employee with sizable settlement
December 1, 2020

Tesla has won its long-standing feud with ex-Gigafactory employee Martin Tripp, who once broke trade-secret violations by telling reporters about delays in Model 3 production. Tripp will be responsible for paying the electric automaker the sum of $400,000, a court filing revealed on Monday evening.

The settlement was a part of a proposed settlement that Tesla had originally filed two years ago. The electric automaker had accused Tripp of illegally revealing trade secrets about the company’s initial manufacturing efforts of the Model 3 sedan, which was described as “production hell” by CEO Elon Musk. …

https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-martin-tripp-settlement/

—- Tesla China
Tesla China VP: Giga Shanghai Will Start Model Y Production & Sales in 1H 2021 & Construction of Supercharger Plant Has Begun

Tesla's Fremont factory is the only one in the world to produce the coveted Model Y, and sales of the electric SUV are currently only available to North Americans. That is why many people are eagerly awaiting the start of its production at Giga Shanghai. And now, there is official information on when this car will be available.

This morning, during an online communication event held by Tesla, the company's vice president in China, Grace Tao, said the Chinese-made Model Y will enter mass production and sales in the first half of next year.

In addition, Tao revealed some details about the factory for Supercharger stall production. She confirmed the rumors that surfaced a few days ago, and said that the construction of the factory has already begun. Production is scheduled to start in Q1 of 2021 with an initial production capacity of 10,000 Superchargers per year, mainly of the latest V3 variety.

Tao also delivered exciting news for electric vehicle owners in China. Currently, Tesla charging stations can only charge Tesla vehicles, but the company does not rule out the possibility of opening them to other brands of electric vehicles in the future. However, opening charging stations to others depends on the vehicles that Tesla's charging stations will use. They will have to undergo a Tesla tech review for safety and charging. …

https://www.tesmanian.com/blogs/tesmanian-blog/tesla-china-vp-model-y-from-giga-shanghai-will-start-production-open-order-in-2021-1st-half

[Sigmetnow]

—- Tesla Semi
The Tesla Semi’s butterfly effect will change the face of heavy-duty freight routes

My research in the Netherlands has revealed that 80% of trucks – even the really big rigs, the semis – travel 750 kilometers per day at the very most, and many cover far shorter distances. That’s because if you want to cover more kilometers, things become very expensive very quickly, because you have to pay overtime, etcetera. So, in general, you can’t make a driver do more than 750 kilometers per day. Therefore, this is the range you have to hit with about 80 percent of trucks. …

https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-semi-butterfly-effect-explored/

Tesla Semi will make billions
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-semi-4680-structural-batteries-620-mile-range-vs-trucking-emissions/

A Tesla Semi with structural batteries and 620 miles of range is a haymaker against trucking emissions
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-semi-4680-structural-batteries-620-mile-range-vs-trucking-emissions/


—- SMR on: Cybertruck
Cybertruck Will Make Tesla Billions (hidden genius)
➡️https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zKWM8twZnX4
VIDEO sources
◆ Cybertruck Is Engineering Genius #https://youtu.be/psXWyO32aWk
◆ Sandy Munro w/Autoline network #https://youtu.be/_uRwZRPQ8RE
“In this video, I put my investor hat on and dive deep into the hidden, cost, time and space saving and engineering genius behind Tesla's #Cybertruck AND its gigantic market potential. What #Tesla have done is developed a superior product with extremely low capital and time costs to reaching volume production. Featuring clips of Sandy Munro on Autoline Network discussing the Cybertruck design from an automotive manufacturing perspective.”

—- Tesla Solar Roof is going to exclusively power a “smart neighbourhood” project in Mississippi.
https://electrek.co/2020/11/20/tesla-solar-roof-power-smart-neighborhood-project-making-elon-musk-vision-come-true/

—- Tesla Tequila deliveries start just in time for the holidays
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-tequila-deliveries-start/

Tesla Tequila lightning bottle and shot glass set to launch worldwide
https://www.teslarati.com/elon-musk-tesla-tequila-international-launch/

[Sigmetnow]

—- Safety & FSD

Tilman Winkler count all votes (@TilmanWinkler)11/28/20, 11:45 AM
I experienced my first “saved by the car” incident a few days ago. I passed a bunch of cars on German highway and was moving back into the middle lane, blinkers set. All of a sudden the car accelerated forward and moved to the left.
/2 A car from the lane to the right moved to the middle lane without signaling or looking and would have hit me in the back... Pretty impressive, honestly.
/3 I was going 130km/h and the right lane ~110km/h. Could have gotten ugly...
Tilman:  I’ve had the front collision warning do some pretty impressive stuff. But it’s a whole different story when the system simply reacts to something the driver does not see. The guy moved quickly into that middle lane...
< video?
Tilman: No, I had taken the USB stick out the day before to save a scene.
<< Activate „Honk to Save“.  Worked like a charm for me.

> That's great. Mine was going from 100km/h+ to zero within a couple of seconds on Autopilot as i went over a bridge with limited forward visibility and came to stand still traffic. Superhuman reactions definitely saved me a high speed collision.

https://twitter.com/tilmanwinkler/status/1332727412342272001

—-

Earl of Frunkpuppy:
One of the many turns #FSDBeta executed flawlessly today. 

https://twitter.com/28delayslater/status/1332393408397254664
26 sec.  Quick right turn onto side street.

Apparently FSD Beta loves going to Home Depot warehouse stores.

Earl of Frunkpuppy:
My car just drove me to Home Depot. Zero Interventions. #FSDBeta 

https://twitter.com/28delayslater/status/1332311601609891842

—- New: early warnings displayed for those failing touchscreens in older Teslas

green (@greentheonly)11/28/20, 2:51 PM
The the going wide (to MCU1 cars) 2020.40.9.2 release has added user-visible message when you are experiencing EMMC failure even before it's catastrophic.
(picture from teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/te… and i confirmed message addition in just that release, not even in 2020.44 yet)
~ it says schedule service and a technical bulletin I've seen indicate that when this flag is set and remaining reserved blocks on emmc falls below a certain value - they will replace the tegra board under warranty.

https://twitter.com/greentheonly/status/1332774137320837125
Image of the screen warning at the link.

[Sigmetnow]

— Axel Springer award.

Tobias Lindh (@tobilindh) 12/1/20, 3:17 PM
Seems like @elonmusk will sleep at #GigaBerlin tonight.

https://twitter.com/tobilindh/status/1333867767947268096
In a conference room. Probably alone.   30 sec clip of interview.

And in answer to a hypothetical question:

“I think we’re definitely not going to launch a hostile takeover,” Musk told Axel Springer CEO Mathias Döpfner on Tuesday during a live event streamed to YouTube.
Döpfner pressed Musk if he’s consider a friendly takeover. “If somebody said, ‘hey, we think it would be a good idea to merge with Tesla,’ we’d certainly have that conversation. But we don’t want it to be a hostile takeover situation,” Musk replied.

Full interview:

[Archimid]

I don't swallow that the mods are not able to compartmentalize "Unmentionable disease" as a decision by Tesla's CEO.  We can discuss this in the context of Tesla, not the unmentionable disease.
 He has been proven to be incredibly wrong on this very major and far-reaching issue that no one wants to discuss, not even here.

This is not a past credibility issue. This is an ongoing credibility issue.  A public apology and a change of mind from Elon Musk would go a long way to slow down the spread before the next quarter-million Americans die, but I would settle for silence.

[oren]

We can discuss this in the context of Tesla, not the unmentionable disease.

Every time we discuss it here, it becomes a debate about the disease itself (for example NeilT's response far above to which I responded "OT"), which is off-topic here.
I suggest to post further updates on the Elon-as-Covid-Denier issue as "another Covid tweet by Elon" without details, so as not to spark further Covid discussion. Even better, to mention this only when evidence is found that this hurts Tesla's image among the potential customer base, most of whom I expect are not Covid deniers. Because "another Covid tweet by Elon" is not much news at this point.

A public apology and a change of mind from Elon Musk would go a long way to removing the risk to Tesla's image, but I would settle for silence.

I wholeheartedly agree with the modified statement, and it does belong in this thread.
OTOH, discussing whether Elon's words actually affect the disease spread or not, does not belong in this thread but in one of the Covid threads, if it belongs anywhere at all. I would settle for silence though.

[NeilT]

PS: NeilT declining permissions over tweets strikes me as very un German.

Approving a site for development but not approving the whole thing is also very "un German".

In the world of German regulations correctness and tidiness are very important.  The system in Germany is not designed to be flexible or to be interpreted it different ways; it is designed to be precise.

What has happened with Giga Berlin is quite rare and is driven by politics and perception rather than by Law.

As such it is very sensitive to political ramifications.  Right now environmentalists, trying to stop the factory on grounds that wonderful green Germany must be protected at all costs; is falling a poor second to the reality that having a wonderful green Germany is OK but it needs wonderful Germans to have quality of life in it.  CO2 means reduced Germans and reduced quality of life. So the fundamental change to override the environmentalists happens.

However, should Musk make Tesla "radioactive" in terms of his tweets, that political landslide of "the greater good" will be overturned very rapidly.

[NeilT]

In fact if the addition to the S&P does not crash the world economy we should probably just call is a succes.

It sounds quite good but, as Musk's recent email shows, profitability and growth are not twins and need constant care and maintenance.

When Tesla gets Shanghai up to full speed, Berlin finished, commissioned and producing 2m vehicles per year and Texas fully complete and at full output (whatever that may be), I believe we can call Tesla a success.

Without those, the incumbents have the ability to crush Tesla in the end.  If Tesla misses just one year on the master plan, now the incumbents know the risk, Tesla could be overtaken and marginalised.

I don't believe we can call time on the risk to Tesla until the end of 2023 at the earliest.

[gerontocrat]

In fact if the addition to the S&P does not crash the world economy we should probably just call is a succes.

It sounds quite good but, as Musk's recent email shows, profitability and growth are not twins and need constant care and maintenance.

When Tesla gets Shanghai up to full speed, Berlin finished, commissioned and producing 2m vehicles per year and Texas fully complete and at full output (whatever that may be), I believe we can call Tesla a success.

Without those, the incumbents have the ability to crush Tesla in the end.  If Tesla misses just one year on the master plan, now the incumbents know the risk, Tesla could be overtaken and marginalised.

I don't believe we can call time on the risk to Tesla until the end of 2023 at the earliest.

Beware events, dear boy, events.

You may have noticed that Australia has dared to criticise China and is in trouble over coal and wine exports to China. China is demanding subservience.

You may have also noticed that the US and China are in a sort of cold war.

You may also have noticed that Biden has given notice to China that as far as the economy is concerned it is "America First".***

How will China Xi Jingping react - his autocratic nature may push him into adding to China / US tensions rather than seeking compromises.

Musk may find he is suddenly not China's new best friend anymore - especially if it seems he is killing off home-grown EV manufacturers. Musk's own autocratic nature and his inability to keep his gob shut and twitter account dormant may not serve him well in such a situation.
________________________________
***
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/dec/02/uk-hopes-of-early-us-trade-deal-dashed-by-biden-warning
Joe Biden warning dashes UK hopes of early US trade deal
President-elect says he won’t sign any new agreements until US is more competitive

Biden told the New York Times: “I want to make sure we’re going to fight like hell by investing in America first.” He named energy, biotech, advanced materials and artificial intelligence as areas ripe for large-scale government investment in research.

The remarks underline the extent to which leading Democrats have retreated from a wholesale embrace of globalisation, and insist US foreign policy must give greater priority to America’s domestic interests.
Biden also suggested the best route to gaining leverage over trade with China lay in building alliances to compete with it. Biden said his “goal would be to pursue trade policies that actually produce progress on China’s abusive practices – that’s stealing intellectual property, dumping products, illegal subsidies to corporations” and forcing “tech transfers” from US companies to their Chinese counterparts.

[NeilT]

Musk may find he is suddenly not China's new best friend anymore - especially if it seems he is killing off home-grown EV manufacturers. Musk's own autocratic nature and his inability to keep his gob shut and twitter account dormant may not serve him well in such a situation.

Hence my comment

I don't believe we can call time on the risk to Tesla until the end of 2023 at the earliest.

By which time any Biden impact will be well known and things should be a lot clearer.

[Archimid]

I have no doubt that while people have a need for energy or transportation becoming a money-printing machine. The first few billions are the low hanging fruit. They will happen by virtue of having a better product.

However, as the arctic changes and climate disruption increase the whole world order is in danger.  Tesla will have to survive much worse things than a global pandemic. Clinging to misinformation, regardless of the reason, is a sure route to failure.

[Sigmetnow]

Pwned: Bluetooth Attack Can Steal a Tesla Model X in Minutes
https://www.wired.com/story/tesla-model-x-hack-bluetooth/amp

The company is rolling out a patch for the vulnerabilities, which allowed one researcher to break into one in 90 seconds and drive away. ...

The fix: an OTA update of the keyfob!

green (@greentheonly)12/1/20, 7:02 PM
The model X keyfob [firmware] update update:
It seems it self-updates with no special action on your part other than it being in car and the car going above certain speed.
Driving around town did nothing to me till I got on an interstate highway, that made the fob update
< Why? For confidence that you’ll likely be driving long enough to allow the update to complete?
green:  Likely.

~ it fixes the security problems with the previous update that got quite some news coverage last week.

< How do you know when it updates? Does it say it’s doing something on screen
green:   no, it's totally silent. the only way is to check the version with a BTLE app like LightBlue…

https://twitter.com/greentheonly/status/1333924571725115392


—- FSD

I’m so about this #FSDBeta

➡️ https://twitter.com/eliburton_/status/1333998594018267136
30 sec.  Compare: Christmas display lights vs. FSD display.

—- What company is the next Tesla?
SMR / Jim Cramer say:
The Next Tesla IS TESLA! (w/Jim Cramer)   YouTube
➡️https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=youtu.be&v=NLhq66ex3PA

SOURCE
◆ Jim Cramer on finding the next Tesla https://www.youtube.com/redirect?…
In this video I react to and share my opinions on a Jim Cramer piece "Tesla Is The Next Tesla". I wholeheartedly agree with Jim on this. So many people are, in my opinion, foolishly chasing "the next Tesla" instead of taking an objective look at the EV (electric vehicle) market.

[Sigmetnow]

—- Discussion of recent Tesla news by Tesla Daily’s Rob Mauer.
December 1
Elon Musk Talks Autonomy, TSLA Price, Mergers, Electric Jets + Leaked Musk Email, Tesla Cybertruck
➡️https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=youtu.be&v=NLhq66ex3PA

Timetamps:
0:00 TSLA stock
0:50 Elon Musk interview takeaways
10:40 Leaked Elon Musk email
12:54 Cybertruck delivery timeline
14:21 Q4 delivery deadlines
15:40 LG battery capacity

[NeilT]

The pundits are bleating on about Tesla potentially buying Mercedes.

Why?

What can they possibly gain?  Apart from designers who produce high quality real leather interiors.  Certainly they have absolutely Nothing to gain from the Mercedes EV tech, it sucks.  The factories?  They are almost totally geared to fossil burners.

Tesla would gain more by starting a new factory in Poland, another one in Turkey, one in India and a smaller one in the UK.

Mercedes produces 2.3m vehicles world wide.  0.3m more than the projected final production from Giga Berlin.

Also, in a merger, it would significantly dilute Musk's shareholding and put him at risk just as he was in PayPal.

If Tesla buys anything out, it will be because it has failed and it is a bargain basement on which they can simply rip and replace manufacturing facilities.  But they would need the failed company to get rid of all the employees first and start hiring anew.

I can't see it at the moment.

Also if Tesla were to start gobbling EV competition, they would be subject to Antitrust PDQ.

[oren]

What can they possibly gain? Absolutely nothing.

[Sigmetnow]

Tesla would gain more by starting a new factory in Poland, another one in Turkey, one in India and a smaller one in the UK.

After leaving Berlin on Dec 3, Elon Musk’s plane landed in Warsaw, Poland....

[NeilT]

After leaving Berlin on Dec 3, Elon Musk’s plane landed in Warsaw, Poland....

That I didn't know.  But it makes sense.  So long as Poland doesn't jump off the deep end over budget and rescue fund.

[Sigmetnow]

After Hours Dec 2, Goldman Sachs Mark Delaney upgraded Tesla to Buy from Neutral with 12-MONTH PRICE TARGET of $780.
(After a downgrade in September, so….)
 < What's interesting to me is that their model assumes 15M units by 2040. We know that $TSLA is targeting 20M units by 2030.

Tesla Gets Goldman Sachs Upgrade With $780 Price Target
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla-gets-goldman-sachs-upgrade-031445147.html

The SMR video:
Tesla Stock Upgraded To $780 (highest on Wall St)
➡️https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=youtu.be&v=2yteI0DIzVA

—-
Jim Chanos!
Tesla bear who argued that TSLA is worth $0 gives Elon Musk credit: ‘Job well done’
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-tsla-short-jim-chanos-admits-defeat-vs-elon-musk/amp/

—-
But famed TSLAQ Mark Spiegel is yet to see the light:

Lisa #TeslaTruth (@TeslaLisa) 12/2/20, 9:14 PM
He is very upset!!! And he's shorting 'more' that today's Afterhours $590 is the highest price $TSLA will 'ever' see. Till the ends of time! By golly!

https://twitter.com/teslalisa/status/1334320062602375170

—-

Whole Mars Catalog (@WholeMarsBlog) 12/3/20, 8:09 PM
isn’t it amazing how wrong TSLAQ was
not even the most bullish bull thought we’d be at $3,000 DOLLARS pre-split before FSD wide release, Cybertruck, 4680...
Ark’s old price targets lookin hella bearish now

https://twitter.com/wholemarsblog/status/1334666097279135744


—-

Whole Mars Catalog (@WholeMarsBlog)12/3/20, 7:59 PM
if you’re still shorting Tesla watch this FSD video and think carefully about your position

Tesla Autopilot FSD Laurel Canyon

Published on Nov 27, 2020
Tesla Autopilot FSD beta drives around Laurel Canyon, heading to the Mullholland Tennis Club. Zero interventions from starting point to destination. Only turned it off when turning into the parking lot. Still lots of kinks to work out but I did not expect the system to do this well. My jaw was on the floor. This technology will change everything about the way we live. This is just the beginning, but FSD is a quantum leap. It's clear where this is going.

Here's the raw 1x footage:
#https://youtu.be/yJetpMNzyXA 

[Sigmetnow]

Elon Musk Named Fortune Magazine’s Businessperson of The Year & Could Have Earned the Award for Each of Several World-Changing Feats
https://www.tesmanian.com/blogs/tesmanian-blog/elon-musk-being-named-fortune-magazine-s-business-person-of-the-year

—-

Moneyball (@DKurac) 11/17/20, 4:47 AM
Tesla opens North #China largest V3 supercharging station in Beijing with 21 chargers, local media reports.
The city has 45 supercharging and 34 regular Tesla stations.

https://twitter.com/dkurac/status/1328635849324457985
Photo at the link: Row of Superchargers, indoors

—-
Tesla & Neoen Held a Groundbreaking Ceremony for Australia’s Biggest Battery Near Geelong

In early November, French renewable energy developer Neoen won a contract to build one of the largest lithium-ion batteries in the world. The facility will be built near the regional city of Geelong using Tesla Megapacks. A groundbreaking ceremony was held yesterday at a site near Geelong with Victoria's Energy and Climate Minister Lily D'Ambrosio.

The big battery will have a power capacity of 300MW and a storage capacity of 450MWh, making it more than double the size of the Hornsdale battery (150/194MWh), which was recently expanded to add new synthetic inertia and other key network services to South Australia. Neoen won the right to build the battery through a tender by the Australian energy market operator. Once again, they will partner with Tesla to deliver the highest quality service. …

https://www.tesmanian.com/blogs/tesmanian-blog/tesla-and-neoen-hold-a-groundbreaking-ceremony-on-australia-s-biggest-battery-near-geelong

[NeilT]

In their push to get more vehicles out of Shanghai with LFP batteries, Tesla may have done some self harm.  I guess time will tell.

https://insideevs.com/news/458229/tesla-skipped-testing-lfp-model-3-china/amp/

This version apparently has reduced range. Down from 420 km to slightly more than 241 km in cold weather.

[NeilT]

In the meantime it appears Giga Berlin paint shop equipment installation is now running 8 weeks late due to slow government approval.

On top of that the environmentalists are going to go after Tesla for the new tree clearances because there might be hibernating lizards and such.  They might win this time and force a delay of the next clearance until the spring.

I have been totally amazed at the willingness of the Brandenburg government to support Giga Berlin, but I still maintain that Germany is one of the most hostile countries in the world for building new manufacturing facilities.

It was a HUGE risk and only time will tell if Musk can pull it off.

[Sigmetnow]

In their push to get more vehicles out of Shanghai with LFP batteries, Tesla may have done some self harm.  I guess time will tell.

https://insideevs.com/news/458229/tesla-skipped-testing-lfp-model-3-china/amp/

This version apparently has reduced range. Down from 420 km to slightly more than 241 km in cold weather.

Well, that 241 was with 5% battery left (and we know “5%” is more than that, because “0%” is not 0) — from one user in cold weather.

It was known at the outset that the range with these batteries would be reduced.  Wasn’t the price of the car reduced, as well?  I imagine specs will be improved somewhat via software updates as Tesla gathers real-world performance data.

[Tor Bejnar]

The pundits are bleating on about Tesla potentially buying Mercedes.

Why?
...

I would rather doubt this too.  But I recall they bought a German battery company because they wanted the expert personnel (and it was going out of business due to COVID).

But a list of Tesla subsidiaries is extensive:
Tesla, Inc. List Of Subsidiaries
(well over 100 of 'em)
not counting the 15 "Tesla Motors"

[NeilT]

I think there is a fair difference between a company which manufactures components that are a fit for Tesla, with a bit of tweaking and a company which is failing to produce enough Fossil burners, of a type people want, to survive.

There is already significant speculation that the IG Metall union is likely to make life hard for Tesla.  IG Metall is refusing to recognise reality and demanding that Mercedes keep up the casting work for their engines in their Berlin plant.  Essentially driving them over the cliff they are teetering on the edge of.

Buying up current FF companies, for Tesla today, would be a poison pill simply in turnaround costs alone. If we start looking into pensions issues (especially in the UK), that pain could double.

Analysts who suggest Tesla might buy out a FF company which has failed to transition, simply don't understand the EV business.  They just see two auto manufacturers.  This is part of the problem with Tesla share volatility too.

[interstitial]

Buying up current FF companies, for Tesla today, would be a poison pill simply in turnaround costs alone. If we start looking into pensions issues (especially in the UK), that pain could double.

Analysts who suggest Tesla might buy out a FF company which has failed to transition, simply don't understand the EV business.  They just see two auto manufacturers.  This is part of the problem with Tesla share volatility too.

Analyst or company s/he works for probably is looking to boost Mercedes price prior to selling off their shares. All free investment advice is either self motivated for their profit or given by a reporter who does not truly understand the market.

[Sigmetnow]

Elon Musk will love this: Tesla short sellers lost more than the US airline industry this year

New York(CNN Business) The incredible year for Tesla stock has created a bloodbath for those shorting its shares.

According to analysis by S3 Partners, short investors in Tesla— those who placed bets in the market that its shares would lose value — have lost $35 billion on those positions so far this year.
"There's nothing that compares to it that I can remember," said Ihor Dusaniwsky, managing director at S3 and an expert in stock shorting.

To put that loss into context, the US airline industry posted combined net losses of $24.2 billion, excluding special items, through the first nine months of 2020, the worst losses the industry has ever reported.

Tesla short sellers lost $8.5 billion in November alone, as the company's shares climbed 46% in the month. That's more than the $6.7 billion Tesla itself lost in the 11 years from when it first reported results in 2008 to the end of last year. …

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/12/04/investing/tesla-short-sellers-elon-musk/index.html

—- Rumor revived
Elon Musk reportedly plans to move to Texas
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/technology/elon-musk-reportedly-plans-to-move-to-texas/ar-BB1bEN2c

—- Another Tesla police cruiser

MarcoRP (@MontrealTesla) 12/4/20, 8:39 PM
As part of a new pilot project, the town of Eden Prairie [Minnesota, U.S.] has purchased a Tesla Model Y for use as a new police cruiser.

https://twitter.com/montrealtesla/status/1335036154807259136
Spreadsheet image at the link: Model Y amongst the Dodge Chargers.

—-
Is Aptera Using Tesla's Charging Tech: 1,000-Mile, Supercharge-Capable EV?

Aptera Motors formally announced its comeback to the world yesterday and began taking reservations for its three-wheeled EV that is capable of going 1,000 miles per charge with the largest battery option. The company also states that the solar roof can add up to 40 miles of range to the battery per day, which will allow some low-mileage owners to be able to drive the vehicle without ever having to plug it in.

That's all amazing news - if it indeed comes to fruition. However, we believe we've noticed something that nobody else is talking about just yet that is also pretty big news. At the 2:55 mark in the company-released Aptera video, we see what appears to be a Tesla inlet on the vehicle, with a Tesla connector about to plug into it.

That's NOT a J1772

You'll notice the connector doesn't have the Tesla name on the top as they usually do. Instead, there's a green overlay with the Aptera logo on it. Check out the Aptera video below and pay close attention at 2:55: …

https://insideevs.com/news/458607/aptera-using-tesla-charging-technology/

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=youtu.be&v=HNjUdTJjiNk

[NeilT]

Tesla China Achieves Record Delivery of 21,604 China-Made Model 3 in November, a 78% MoM Increase

But in addition to that,

the factory produced another 7,000 Model 3s that were shipped to Europe

https://www.tesmanian.com/blogs/tesmanian-blog/tesla-sold-xxx-vehicles-in-november-in-china

Of interest that is a run rate of 343k vehicles per year. More than the targeted 300k for 2021.

December is going to be an interesting month.

[blu_ice]

Tesla to sell 5 billion worth of their (record high) stock


Tesla stock drops after $5 billion stock offering plan
Published: Dec. 8, 2020 at 6:33 a.m. ET

Share sale agreement comes after price surge to a record boosts market cap to over $600 billion

Shares of Tesla Inc. dropped Tuesday after the electric vehicle market leader filed for the sale of up to $5 billion worth of stock.

The share sale plan comes after the stock shot up 12.8% over the past three days to Monday’s record close of $641.76. That rally boosted Tesla’s market capitalization to $6.08 billion, enough to make it the sixth most valuable U.S. company.

Don’t miss: Tesla’s market cap zooms past $600 billion.

The stock TSLA, +7.13% slid 1.8% ahead of Tuesday’s open. The stock has soared 94.4% over the past three months through Monday, and 667.1% year to date, while the S&P 500 index SPX, -0.19% has gained 14.3% this year.

Telsa said it entered into an equity distribution agreement with a number of Wall Street banks, including Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, Barclays, BNP, BofA Securities, Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank, Morgan Stanley, SG Americas and Wells Fargo.

Shares will be sold from “time to time” through an “at-the-market” (ATM) offering program.

The offering follows another $5 billion offering completed three months ago, when a large shareholder also sold off some of its stake, and before the stock is added to the S&P 500 index on Dec. 21.

Based on Monday’s stock closing price of $641.76, the offering plan could represent about 7.79 million shares, or about 0.8% of the shares outstanding.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/tesla-stock-drops-after-5-billion-stock-offering-plan-11607427217

[Sigmetnow]

Gary Black (@garyblack00) 12/8/20, 8:13 AM
The new $TSLA shares associated with the $5B ATM secondary announced today will be issued next week when indexers are scrambling to buy $75B TSLA shares. There won’t be another next week.

~ Combination of S&P inclusion (strong hands of indexers holding 16% of float) plus investment grade credit rating should bring $TSLA beta down significantly in 2021, reducing TSLA cost of equity, and increasing calculated TSLA price targets.

~ Everyone needs to keep perspective. A $5B $TSLA secondary is less than 1% dilution, and was not unexpected. Mathematically, it implies a <1% drop in TSLA price. It helps take some air out of the speculative balloon and lessens the downside post inclusion. Trust @elonmusk.

https://twitter.com/garyblack00/status/1336303060260442112