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Neven

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #600 on: October 14, 2018, 09:49:07 PM »
GSY, you need to post some more anti-propaganda and less opinion. Remember what the thread is for.
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Archimid

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #601 on: October 14, 2018, 09:51:07 PM »
Quote
But there is nothing false about it.

If you were a short seller and you engage in the type of deception that skabooshka spits out, you are committing a crime. That's plain and simple. Short selling already injects enough unnecessary risk for shareholders to allow short sellers to also distort the market to compound the negative pressure on the stock.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

Zythryn

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #602 on: October 14, 2018, 10:21:48 PM »
...It greatly upsets me that this is the path we're taking. And it is unbelievable disappointing to see a forum of such smart people endorse it.  I know I come off as a raving lunatic on this forum, and have my account ignored by many people. And maybe I am crazy. And maybe this path will work out in the end. But I have a awful feeling that maintaining the status quo but with a green "twist" is going to be an utter failure. I can't help but to think that solving the problem with the techniques that got us into this mess is a really bad idea.


Rather than tearing down the companies and people that are doing, in your view, not enough.  Why don't you promote solutions that are better?

No single solution is going to fix everything.  So add to the options, rather than tearing down partial fixes.

Neven

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #603 on: October 14, 2018, 10:39:13 PM »
And in the meantime, let's use this thread to mainly post articles, op-eds, videos, etc, that are either pro or anti Tesla glory or failure. If there aren't any, let's all just shut up and show some patience.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #604 on: October 14, 2018, 10:50:39 PM »
And in the meantime, let's use this thread to mainly post articles, op-eds, videos, etc, that are either pro or anti Tesla glory or failure. If there aren't any, let's all just shut up and show some patience.

But Neven, I NEED my daily dose of vitriol.

I kid you not. In some well-run Old Peoples' Homes, (no, I am not there yet), they encourage argument as it stops people going into stasis.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
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sidd

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #605 on: October 14, 2018, 11:19:18 PM »
from http://chaimsteinmetz.blogspot.com/2013/06/we-didnt-get-here-by-complaining.html

"The joke is told about the well known businessman who has a heart ailment, and is taken to the best hospital in New York. A few days later, he abruptly transfers to a small hospital best known for its mediocrity. When he arrives there, the attending physician is intrigued, wondering why this man has transferred from a world class hospital to his humble facility. So he asks his celebrity patient what was wrong with the previous hospital.

"Was the medical care not good enough?"

"No - the medical care was remarkable, with one doctor more brilliant than the next. I can't complain".

"Was the nursing care OK?"

"The nurses were absolute angels. I can't complain"

"What about the food and the rooms?"

"The food was exceptional, restaurant quality, and the hospital rooms were just redecorated. I can't complain".

Finally, the doctor asks: "So why did you come here?"

"Here…I CAN complain!" "

http://chaimsteinmetz.blogspot.com/2013/06/we-didnt-get-here-by-complaining.html

sidd

Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #606 on: October 15, 2018, 12:15:16 AM »
8 “Impossible” Goals Tesla Achieved
October 14th, 2018
Quote
You may want to write this off as a clickbait fluff piece. Well, it may clickbait (depending on the definition you’re using) but it is certainly not a fluffy Furby, a flufferbot, or a feckless sideshow. In fact, I think the points illustrated below are often essential for understanding Tesla and its critics.

The point is not, “Hey, Tesla did some things.” The biggest point, actually, is that every step of the way there have been loud voices claiming Tesla’s goals were impossible and that Tesla would fail and collapse just around the corner. While the official “Tesla Death Watch” was shut off approximately a decade ago, some of the critics have stuck around and the claims that Tesla’s next step will basically be its last step have never ended.

No matter how much such claims are wrong, when they are made continuously for a decade, people start to associate the company with the claims. Some people start to associate Tesla with failure even though it has achieved stunning success after stunning success. It takes stepping back for a moment in order to realize that these associations are manufactured — were planted in our heads by incorrect claims.

Let’s start in 2013 with some comments from George Blankenship, who had formerly worked at Apple and was then a top exec at Tesla:

“Everything we do is difficult. And why is it so difficult? It’s because everything we do is impossible to everybody else. When you think about what Tesla does, and you go back four or five years ago and you say: ‘I am going to do an electric car that is going to go over 200 miles, goes zero to 60 in under 4 seconds and it is going to look great.’ And what is everyone going to say? It’s impossible.

“And as soon as we do that, what do we say? ‘Now we are going to build a 4-door sedan that seats seven people and goes 300 miles and goes zero to 60 in under 4.5 seconds. Impossible for everybody else on the planet except for Tesla.

“And then you say: ‘Now, how are we going to talk to customers about this and how are we going to do this?’ So, ‘why don’t we go open up stores in the mall and have people wander in, and we will tell them about electric vehicles, and we will try really hard not to sell them anything? Why don’t we do that? Really?’

“And that’s what we do every day.”


Indeed. That should kick us off.

[ List follows....]
https://cleantechnica.com/2018/10/14/8-impossible-goals-tesla-achieved/
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #607 on: October 15, 2018, 01:17:43 AM »
Quote
But there is nothing false about it.

If you were a short seller and you engage in the type of deception that skabooshka spits out, you are committing a crime. That's plain and simple. Short selling already injects enough unnecessary risk for shareholders to allow short sellers to also distort the market to compound the negative pressure on the stock.

I've asked several times for an example of an incorrect production estimate he has made and....crickets. Can you point to anything concrete or are you just sure that those who disagree with you are criminals?

Also, can you explain how short selling injects risk for shareholders? Do you understand how short selling works?

Finally, why is short selling only a concern for companies that are frauds? Can you point to a single legitimate business that was brought down due to short selling?
big time oops

GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #608 on: October 15, 2018, 01:21:01 AM »
Why don't you promote solutions that are better?

Are you under the impression that saying something is not a genuine solution is mutually exclusive from promoting a different solution?
big time oops

oren

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #609 on: October 15, 2018, 02:13:10 AM »
I've asked several times for an example of an incorrect production estimate he has made and....crickets.
You have not provided any production estimates he has made (dates, numbers), nor have you shown any linkage between his estimates and actual production numbers.

zizek

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #610 on: October 15, 2018, 02:42:08 AM »
Quote
I have a awful feeling that maintaining the status quo but with a green "twist" is going to be an utter failure. I can't help but to think that solving the problem with the techniques that got us into this mess is a really bad idea.
I generally agree with this comment. Green BAU cannot solve the world's problems quickly enough and/or thoroughly enough, and on its own will end in failure. Other solutions are required as well - sharply reduced consumption, sharply reduced pollution, and reduced population (sharply reducing births). What I fail to understand is why so many hate Tesla for trying to build some kind of partial solution, as if they are to blame that other more thorough, quicker and more correct solutions are not implemented. Blame politicians, and even more blame the general public whose priorities dictate all this, and/or who lets distractions and expensive ads to sway its votes.
The claim that because of Tesla all those simpletons lose sight of the real problem is pure nonsense.

We're at a point where we can't simply accept any "partial solution". We can't just take everything at face value.
The crisis is severe. Our time is limited. We need to approach everything with a critical eye. Simply rubber stamping every "green" solution is a bad idea. We have to be smarter than that. This cocktail of desperation and late-stage capitalism is going to give us a nasty hangover.

We are already seeing the effects of diverting public funds into the private sphere.

https://www.theverge.com/2018/3/12/17109708/via-arlington-texas-rideshare-app-replaces-bus
https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2017/04/03/innisfil-taps-uber-to-fill-public-transit-void.html

We are abandoning proven, reliable, inclusive, and green public transportation for the venture capitalists in Silicon Valley.

https://www.citylab.com/transportation/2017/12/what-elon-musk-doesnt-get-about-urban-transit/548843/


I'm not against electric vehicles. I'm not a Luddite. In fact, I plan on transferring schools just to focus on power and motors, because I know that electric motors is a critical piece in the climate change puzzle

But the only god damn thing that will stop climate change is to transform our society. To stop polluting. To stop exploiting. To stop stealing resources. To have respect for the people and the world around us. To be equal. And people like Musk are selling us a world where we continue the cycle of greed, destruction, and exploitation. The batteries may be one step forward, but the framework is fifty steps back.

The sooner you realize this, the sooner we can move forward.

zizek

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #611 on: October 15, 2018, 02:51:29 AM »

Take note of this rhetoric and the narrative it's building. Green tech giants are going to insulate themselves from failure by using public funds as bailouts. They will build empires of expensive, inefficient "green" solutions that will be desperately heralded as the only way to defeat climate change.  They will use their cult of personalities and strong lobbying efforts to pump their companies with public funds during start-up, and continue to do so as they falter and fail. They will use this money to purchase private jets and mansions, just like Musk has. 

Tesla has already received billions in government subsidies to build cars that reinforce a suburban lifestyle. That money should have been spent on things like medium density housing, public transport, and other inclusive sustainability projects.  But instead we keep on building expensive hunks of metal for rich people and claiming it as saving the world.

It greatly upsets me that this is the path we're taking. And it is unbelievable disappointing to see a forum of such smart people endorse it.  I know I come off as a raving lunatic on this forum, and have my account ignored by many people. And maybe I am crazy. And maybe this path will work out in the end. But I have a awful feeling that maintaining the status quo but with a green "twist" is going to be an utter failure. I can't help but to think that solving the problem with the techniques that got us into this mess is a really bad idea.

There are two narratives going on in this thread -

- Is TESLA a going concern?
- Is the strategy being used to address environmental degradation and destruction going to work?

There is a probability that TESLA is a going concern at least until the existing economic system enters its end of days. (ps: TESLA is a minnow in extracting public subsidies compared with the whales that are the Fossil Fuel majors).

Will CO2 emissions (and all the other stuff) be fixed by the existing economic system? Probably not. Will the people rise and force change through the ballot box? Probably not. Will Trump clones offer simplistic solutions and get into office either through the ballot or other means? Probably yes.

But EVs will reduce CO2 emissions (or at least slow the increase) as part of a mitigation strategy.
Bellowing and screaming about Musk and TESLA is a waste of time and effort. Indeed, it is entirely counter-productive, a diversion from the immense effort that is required to wean people off the growth / consumption carousel.

And that is (definitely) all I am going to say about that.

Well. Musk is a significant donor to the republican party. His opulent lifestyle is no different than the cowards and leeches in the political and lobbyist sphere. His gamesmanship is the embodiment of everything wrong with the American political establishments.


So yeah, I dunno, Maybe he did reduce emissions. But who knows if it was worth it

GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #612 on: October 15, 2018, 03:56:07 AM »
I've asked several times for an example of an incorrect production estimate he has made and....crickets.
You have not provided any production estimates he has made (dates, numbers), nor have you shown any linkage between his estimates and actual production numbers.

Thus, he is a criminal...  ???

Archtard is saying he engaged in criminal deception without referencing anything. And you take his side. I hope you all join Musk on his BFR and shoot off to Mars.

(all you have to do is scroll down. twitter isn't overly complex; I thought the link was sufficient)
big time oops

oren

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #613 on: October 15, 2018, 04:21:32 AM »
You have not provided any production estimates he has made (dates, numbers), nor have you shown any linkage between his estimates and actual production numbers.
(all you have to do is scroll down. twitter isn't overly complex; I thought the link was sufficient)
I scrolled down for a few minuted and couldn't find anything substantial. As you had claimed he was very accurate in his predictions, I am certain you can point out to his specific predicted numbers and how they compare with actual/official/estimated numbers. We would need all his predictions, not just cherry-picked ones of course. So the link was insufficient. If you make a specific claim, back it up so others can check it.

Quote
*** is saying he engaged in criminal deception without referencing anything. And you take his side. I hope you all join Musk on his BFR and shoot off to Mars.
I do not think short selling is criminal or even a negative behavior, nor is disseminating non-rosy data a negative behavior (though active defamation purely to drive down stock value is a negative behavior). I am not sure in which of these behaviors skabooshka engages nor do I much care. And you can buy all the puts you want and it doesn't make you bad person. Hey I bought some TSLA puts in the past as well. I do find gross name-calling on my favorite public forum a negative behavior though, and I feel the same about excessive sarcasm or wishing people off to another planet.

Archimid

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #614 on: October 15, 2018, 04:37:54 AM »
Quote
Friends, the Daily Production project has been fun (& very accurate). But I now need to take the project down for a variety of reasons, incl. personal bandwidth. If you need to persuade me otherwise, DMs are open. But for now, thanks to all of $TSLAQ for your insights/analysis.

https://twitter.com/skabooshka/status/1028428116966879232

This was on August 12 just as Tesla production started to ramp to record high levels.

Before that he was giving exact numbers.

That's how people lie without lying. This is common in the anti-Tesla spheres as is common behavior in pro-Trump spheres and climate change denying spheres.

To me, they are all part of the same thing.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

Neven

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #615 on: October 15, 2018, 06:25:49 AM »
Archtard is saying he engaged in criminal deception without referencing anything. And you take his side. I hope you all join Musk on his BFR and shoot off to Mars.

I'm getting tired of the repetitiveness, so I've put GSY on moderation and will pre-approve his posts before they appear, hoping for more anti-Tesla articles, tweets, op-eds, etc.
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oren

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #616 on: October 15, 2018, 07:12:34 AM »
I'm getting tired of the repetitiveness, so I've put GSY on moderation and will pre-approve his posts before they appear, hoping for more anti-Tesla articles, tweets, op-eds, etc.
To help maintain your resolve I will post short-side articles from time to time, though I might point out the most obvious flaws. To start, here's one from a few days ago by Bill Maurer.
Quote
As we approach the midway point of October, it doesn't appear that Tesla is making any major progress on the Model 3 front. There have been no declarations that production hit the 6,000 a week goal for late August, and the Bloomberg Model 3 tracker remains in the low 4,000 a week rate. Without a cheaper version or deliveries to Europe soon, Tesla may be exhausting its US demand quite quickly. The company also raised its lending rate on the vehicle, making it even more expensive for consumers who need to borrow.
...
In the end, the cracks are starting to show at Tesla. Model 3 progress seems to be well behind schedule still, with management not updating production plans or giving a reservation count at the Q3 quarterly announcement. You would have figured we'd hear something if the numbers were good, so what does that tell you? In the last couple of weeks, Norway sales have dropped just as Jaguar i-Pace deliveries are starting to ramp, and more competition is coming along with major tax break headwinds in 2019. With interest rates on the rise, Tesla's debt pile is becoming even more dangerous, which has resulted in investors selling both the company's stock and bonds recently.

It mentions the Elon Musk margin call which is mostly nonsense. And I highly doubt the thesis that the demand for the high-priced M3 versions will be exhausted this quarter (the new theme on the block). In addition, the "scary" competition is actually late and expensive.

On the other hand, this I agree with:
Quote
As the solar business has cratered since Tesla took it over, investors continue to be hurt by the acquired segment's huge losses and cash burn. One must wonder how much better Tesla's financials would look without that "bailout," even if Elon Musk's image would have lost a bit of luster by letting SolarCity go bankrupt.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4211098-tesla-cracks-showing

NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #617 on: October 15, 2018, 11:05:14 AM »
I was reading an article about Tesla and seekingalpha whilst waiting to board my flight in Bordeaux last night.  The author was explaining a fair bit about how the press releases hardly ever got it right about the company the author was working for except when analysing actual results.  It is on my laptop in the apartment, I'll get it off tonight.

The other thing the author mentioned was the incredibly low entry bar at seekingslpha for contributing.  Kind of reminds me of wuwt.

There are a few possible options as to what Tesla is doing right now.  My personal favourite is that the very best way to burn the shorts is to make it really look like the company is in trouble by not posting good news, then pulling results out of the hat at results time.

Of course Tesla could be in trouble and failing to make a profit, I accept that.  But consider this, there is significant issue, in investor circles about Tesla profitability.  So why would the press expect Tesla to borrow more, fix lending rates in the face of increasing rates and, generally, do a whole load of things to decrease profitability?

I learned a lot arguing with the faithful on wuwt and the most persistent trait was the one where people would agree with a position their own position made untenable, so long as it trashed global warming science.

Equally Tesla bears who trash Tesla efforts to show the profit investors claim to want, are suspect and should be viewed with caution
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #618 on: October 15, 2018, 02:09:56 PM »
The much-anticipated Version 9 (V9) [moving towards Full Self Driving] software recently began rolling out to Tesla cars via Over The Air (OTA) push.  Different features are updated on all models, but cars with the latest, Level 2 hardware (HW2, AP2) see the most improvement.

Background on HW2: 
Quote
It has 8 cameras all around the Model S and Model X. 3 of them are front-facing, one narrow forward camera with a range of 250m, another mid-range 150m, which acts as the main camera, and a wide forward camera with a shorter range of 60m.
There are also cameras on each side of the front fenders and B-pillars – and finally, there’s a rear-facing one.
Tesla also uses radar and GPS data, but the cameras are becoming increasingly more important as Tesla uses more of them with each software update.
https://electrek.co/2017/05/16/tesla-autopilot-2-0-can-see

And on V9:
First look at Tesla's version 9 software update with new UI, features, and more
https://electrek.co/2018/09/03/tesla-version-9-software-update-new-ui-features/
   

Now comes the nerdy, exciting bit 8) , via a detailed examination of the new Autopilot Neural Net system, posted on the TMC forum.  Brief excerpts:
Quote
"Well, the V9 network appears to be camera agnostic. It can process the output from any camera on the car using the same weight file."
"Being camera agnostic means the network has to have a better sense of what an object looks like under all kinds of camera distortions"
"...fringe benefit of improved computational efficiency...just have the one set of weights you don’t have to constantly be swapping weight sets in and out of your GPU memory"
"This network is far larger than any vision NN I’ve seen publicly disclosed and I’m just reeling at the thought of how much data it must take to train it"
"The NN should be able to identify every object in every direction at distances up to hundreds of meters and also provide approximate instantaneous relative movement for all of those objects"
"As a neural network dork I couldn’t be more pleased"
https://twitter.com/lordastinus/status/1051605802971267072

From the post:
Quote
Various V8 versions included networks for pillar and repeater cameras in the binaries but AFAIK nobody outside Tesla ever saw those networks in operation. Normal AP use on V8 seemed to only include the use of main and narrow for driving and the wide angle forward camera for rain sensing. In V9 it’s very clear that all cameras are being put to use for all the AP2 cars.

The basic camera NN (neural network) arrangement is an Inception V1 type CNN with L1/L2/L3ab/L4abcdefg layer arrangement (architecturally similar to V8 main/narrow camera up to end of inception blocks but much larger)
   ◦   about 5x as many weights as comparable portion of V8 net
   ◦   about 18x as much processing per camera (front/back)
The V9 network takes 1280x960 images with 3 color channels and 2 frames per camera from, for example, the main camera. That’s 1280x960x3x2 as an input, or 7.3M. The V8 main camera was 640x416x2 or 0.5M - 13x less data.

For perspective, V9 camera network is 10x larger and requires 200x more computation when compared to Google’s Inception V1 network from which V9 gets it’s underlying architectural concept. That’s processing *per camera* for the 4 front and back cameras. Side cameras are 1/4 the processing due to being 1/4 as many total pixels. With all 8 cameras being processed in this fashion it’s likely that V9 is straining the compute capability of the APE. The V8 network, by comparison, probably had lots of margin.

network outputs:
   ◦   V360 object decoder (multi level, processed only)
   ◦   back lane decoder (back camera plus final processed)
   ◦   side lane decoder (pillar/repeater cameras plus final processed)
   ◦   path prediction pp decoder (main/narrow/fisheye cameras plus final processed)
   ◦   “super lane” decoder (main/narrow/fisheye cameras plus final processed)

See the entire post by jimmy_d here:  https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/posts/3120699/


6-second Video clip of V9 in action, recognizing people, cars, and vans...:
“Tesla V9 is FREAKING NUTS. It shows everything around you!”
https://twitter.com/snazzyq/status/1049739808635940864
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #619 on: October 15, 2018, 06:27:47 PM »
Quote
Friends, the Daily Production project has been fun (& very accurate). But I now need to take the project down for a variety of reasons, incl. personal bandwidth. If you need to persuade me otherwise, DMs are open. But for now, thanks to all of $TSLAQ for your insights/analysis.

https://twitter.com/skabooshka/status/1028428116966879232

This was on August 12 just as Tesla production started to ramp to record high levels.

Before that he was giving exact numbers.

That's how people lie without lying. This is common in the anti-Tesla spheres as is common behavior in pro-Trump spheres and climate change denying spheres.

To me, they are all part of the same thing.

"Friends, the Daily Production project has been fun (& very accurate). But I now need to take the project down for a variety of reasons, incl. personal bandwidth. If you need to persuade me otherwise, DMs are open. But for now, thanks to all of $TSLAQ for your insights/analysis."

you are trying to tell me that the above is the best example you can find of what you are attacking as criminal behavior...? that's absurdly pathetic.

the liars are the Telsa bulls, who continue to stand behind Musk's impossible claims despite a clear track record of his claims being wildly off base. the idea that calling this out is criminal is insane.
big time oops

NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #620 on: October 15, 2018, 09:31:14 PM »
Personally I thought this entire article made total sense.

I liked the last part.

Quote
But don’t put too much faith in any one particular article. I won’t trust anything until we see what the Q3 results are, from Tesla itself. And yes, even that is open to interpretation.
Being right too soon is socially unacceptable.

Robert A. Heinlein

NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #621 on: October 15, 2018, 09:38:21 PM »
the liars are the Telsa bulls, who continue to stand behind Musk's impossible claims despite a clear track record of his claims being wildly off base. the idea that calling this out is criminal is insane.

And the shorts are?  Musk may be wildly overoptimistic, but his track record is that every single target, at every single company, has been met.  It might have taken 1,2 or 3 years longer than Musk wanted, but the record stands.  Every wild claim has, eventually, been met.

I understand why people back a bet.  I missed out, badly, in early 2013, when I thought of buying $3,000 worth of bitcoin, after a major fall, at just over $10 each.  The only reason I'm not kicking myself to death right now is that I would probably have bought them through MtGox and, after spending that, wound up with nothing.

There is money to be made betting on the wilder side.  Personally I find that somewhat more honest than betting on a company failing then spending the entire time talking the company down so that it falters.

But that's just me..
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oren

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #622 on: October 15, 2018, 09:45:38 PM »

sedziobs

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #623 on: October 15, 2018, 10:26:21 PM »
To help maintain your resolve I will post short-side articles from time to time, though I might point out the most obvious flaws. To start, here's one from a few days ago by Bill Maurer.
Quote
The company also raised its lending rate on the vehicle, making it even more expensive for consumers who need to borrow.
What does that mean?  Telsa does not lease the Model 3.  It doesn't offer its own financing either.  It simply retrieves lending offers from banks.  The rates on those have gone up due to a steadily increasing discount rate.  I don't see how that is Tesla's fault.

Anecdotally, Tesla offered me 3.75% from Wells Fargo.  I was able to get 3.00% through a local credit union.

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #624 on: October 15, 2018, 11:13:41 PM »

Finally, the doctor asks: "So why did you come here?"

"Here…I CAN complain!" "

http://chaimsteinmetz.blogspot.com/2013/06/we-didnt-get-here-by-complaining.html

sidd

sorry but that most certainly was a female patient, 90% chance ROFL......

GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #625 on: October 15, 2018, 11:21:26 PM »
Musk may be wildly overoptimistic, but his track record is that every single target, at every single company, has been met.

This is incredibly wrong. Does the solar roof exist? no. Does the Tesla auto taxi exist? no. Does Neuralink exist? no. Does Star Link exist? no. Did Tesla start producing 5k models 3s per week in dec 2017? no, and still not. When Musk said in 2011 that Tesla was forever done raising capital, did that hold true? super no. Does the HyperLoop work? no. Has the boring company shown any tunneling success? no. Did the NY state gigafactory work out as promised? not even close. Was the takeover of Solar City a benefit to Tesla? no. Is the Solar City business growing. no, it's shrinking. Did Musk fix Puerto Ricos power grid as promised? no. Did Musk create a workable solution for the cave rescue? no. Has Tesla been profitable since 2011 as Musk has regularly claimed??? no. Did Musk have financing secured to take Tesla private at $420 a share only contingent on a shareholder vote? no.

Can you please tell me what exactly you are referring to with his great track record? Can you please explain why you don't consider everything I listed here to be a target missed? If your answer is just, "well it's just a matter of timing", couldn't that be used to justify every lie ever told? Eventually everything will happen.
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oren

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #626 on: October 15, 2018, 11:48:18 PM »
Quote
The company also raised its lending rate on the vehicle, making it even more expensive for consumers who need to borrow.
What does that mean?  Telsa does not lease the Model 3.  It doesn't offer its own financing either.  It simply retrieves lending offers from banks.  The rates on those have gone up due to a steadily increasing discount rate.  I don't see how that is Tesla's fault.

Anecdotally, Tesla offered me 3.75% from Wells Fargo.  I was able to get 3.00% through a local credit union.
Here is Bill Maurer from 3 months ago writing about these rate hikes. I have no direct knowledge of the matter, it could be just noise (or not).
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4184947-tesla-hikes-loan-rates

gerontocrat

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #627 on: October 16, 2018, 12:15:04 AM »
Quote
The company also raised its lending rate on the vehicle, making it even more expensive for consumers who need to borrow.
What does that mean?  Telsa does not lease the Model 3.  It doesn't offer its own financing either.  It simply retrieves lending offers from banks.  The rates on those have gone up due to a steadily increasing discount rate.  I don't see how that is Tesla's fault.

Anecdotally, Tesla offered me 3.75% from Wells Fargo.  I was able to get 3.00% through a local credit union.

If Musk can see off the SEC then why couldn't he tell the Fed to cancel the rate hikes?
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #628 on: October 16, 2018, 01:03:51 PM »
Update re the TMC Full Self Driving write-up ( https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2406.msg177084.html#msg177084 )

Tesla deploys massive new Autopilot neural net in v9, impressive new capabilities, report says
https://electrek.co/2018/10/15/tesla-new-autopilot-neural-net-v9/

Elon Musk (@elonmusk) 10/16/18, 3:36 AM
@ElectrekCo @FredericLambert To be clear, actual NN improvement is significantly overestimated in this article. V9.0 vs V8.1 is more like a ~400% increase in useful ops/sec due to enabling integrated GPU & better use of discrete GPU.
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1052101050465808384

<< How much of a difference would the new Tesla chip make?
EM:  Somewhere between 500% & 2000%
<<< Aspirational timeline for the new chip?
EM: ~6 months before it is in all new production cars. No change to sensors. This is simple replacement of the Autopilot computer. Will be done free of charge for those who ordered full self-driving.
<<< Cool! Have you guys decided on pricing for those who *didn't* order full self-driving?
EM:  I believe it’s $5k

Edit:  more on the Neural Net chip and the people who designed it:
Tesla aims for new neural net computer in production in 6 months, results in 500-2000% increase in ops/sec, says Elon Musk
https://electrek.co/2018/10/16/tesla-neural-net-computer-production-elon-musk/
« Last Edit: October 16, 2018, 01:21:12 PM by Sigmetnow »
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GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #629 on: October 16, 2018, 02:04:16 PM »
Check out this "green" factory. If you look closely you can tell that every inch of the roof is covered in solar panels. And if you really try you can see all the employees walking and biking to work from their nearby residences! Synergies!
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #630 on: October 16, 2018, 02:30:55 PM »
I've come across some interesting information that I'm trying to confirm/deny. Apparently the whole Tesla Auto Pilot learning from actual real world driving thing is just another Muskian scam / Teslie. Apparently the cars neither store nor trasmit data about driving. I've tried to figure out the veracity of this claim but to no avail. Any one have any info / thoughts?
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #631 on: October 16, 2018, 02:53:27 PM »
Can a Tesla Bull please give me your theory as to why Tesla has decreased their production since the end on June if the claim that they have 420k reservations wasn't fraudulent?

Also, how doesn't the lack of continued production ramp bode for profitability and ability to repay upcoming loans?
« Last Edit: October 16, 2018, 08:53:56 PM by Neven »
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #632 on: October 16, 2018, 04:40:40 PM »
One thing to keep in mind from an “accounting perspective” .... is that Tesla has been incurring those R&D costs for their autonomous driving chips, and that R&D cost to develop their autonomous cups/software is EXPENSED as they incur the costs.

So while Tesla is taking the gamble that they can create a very good autonomous chip/system, if they succeed, they will likely gain some cost advantage going forward.  Over the last few years when Tesla was selling far fewer cars, part of Tesla’s “cost per vehicle” included the R&D cost for autonomous driving.  Now .... it wasn’t shown for financial purposes as a COGS (it was shown as a single line item as “R&D”, but it WAS a cost that was immediately expensed.

As Tesla sells more and more cars, their total “cost per vehicle” including their R&D WILL GO DOWN because the R&D is spread over a larger number of cars.  Of course the significant issue is whether or not Tesla’s chip/system is better or not, and by how much.


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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #633 on: October 16, 2018, 05:17:30 PM »
U.S. judge approves settlement between SEC, Tesla and Musk
Reuters. October 16, 2018, 2:27 PM GMT
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-judge-approves-settlement-between-141542192.html

Edit.  More:

“In this case, the SEC considered multiple factors in determining appropriate civil penalties. These included the seriousness of the alleged violations, the market impact caused by the alleged conduct, and Defendants’ financial means, but also countervailing factors such as Defendants’ willingness to settle these actions promptly, Defendants’ apparent lack of pecuniary gain, and the limited temporal scope of the conduct.”
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-tsla-elon-musk-sec-settlement-approval-us-judge/
« Last Edit: October 16, 2018, 05:25:55 PM by Sigmetnow »
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NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #634 on: October 16, 2018, 09:03:44 PM »
That money should have been spent on things like medium density housing, public transport, and other inclusive sustainability projects.  But instead we keep on building expensive hunks of metal for rich people and claiming it as saving the world.

And there your political idealism comes crashing down around your ears.  Let me give you an analogy.

My son was sitting at the dinner table and venting about stop and search in the UK.  He said, "you told us to go and get the knives and the acid, we did an analysis and found that 90% of the problem was with black youth so we stopped and searched black youth.  You called us racists.  So Ferck you you're on your own".

Stop and search in the UK is a political issue but should be a simple policing matter.

What is the point I am trying to make?

Who are the problem with CO2 emissions?  Those who live in cities and take public transport?  Not a bit of it.  The problem is rich people driving expensive hunks of metal.

So when someone else analyses the problem, comes up with the correct answer to resolve the problem, then actually goes about it, expect them to be a bit irked when someone else pops up and derides them for no other reason than their "politics" wants a different solution.

If you want to go rant about "public transport" and where the best "benefit" could be made socially, go to China, go to Russia, go and see just how an authoritarian "socialist" government is good for the planet.

Then go and look up "enlightened self interest".

Tesla is doing what Tesla needs to do in order to transition from a start up to a fully functional multi national manufacturer of EV vehicles and carbon neutral technology.

Your view?  "You're not doing it the way I want to do it because someone is going to make money out of it".

There is a place for this view but it is not in the real world of mitigating the impact to the environment of fossil fuel burning.
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NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #635 on: October 16, 2018, 09:12:24 PM »
This is incredibly wrong. Does the solar roof exist? no. Does the Tesla auto taxi exist? no. Does Neuralink exist? no. Does Star Link exist? no. Did Tesla start producing 5k models 3s per week in dec 2017? no

You snipped the part where I said it might take "years" to deliver on his stated goal.  Then you push a statement made for 2017???


Sorry that won't wash.

StarLink is in progress, a Tesla Taxi requires fully autonomous driving which is only going to be available at speeds with the new processors that Tesla hired the staff to design.  Neuralink?  Again, time.

Now tell me this.  Did SpaceX produce low cost reusable launchers which don't fail?  Did Tesla successfully transition from low volume premium cars to high volume cars which have the potential to reach the mass market?

Musk never stops trying and keeps on pushing till his goals are met.  I find this much more appealing than setting a low standard and failing, often miserably, to meet it.  Musk sets the barrier impossibly high, then gets there in the end.

This is bad?  Wrong?  Not in my world.
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NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #636 on: October 16, 2018, 09:19:48 PM »
I've come across some interesting information that I'm trying to confirm/deny. Apparently the whole Tesla Auto Pilot learning from actual real world driving thing is just another Muskian scam / Teslie. Apparently the cars neither store nor trasmit data about driving. I've tried to figure out the veracity of this claim but to no avail. Any one have any info / thoughts?

If it doesn't, it will be the fist car, since the advent of the ECU, which monitors and stores diagnostic data, which does not.

The Tesla's don't even have discrete single purpose ECU style CPU's on board with EEprom burned software.  Tesla's have ROM, RAM and flash storage in quite large capacities to receive, hold and update the onboard system.

In terms of the data required the Tesla has thousands of times more storage space than is actually required to do this monitoring.

Ford was convicted, in the UK, of illegally accessing the ECU data from millions of UK Ford vehicles to try and determine how they were being driven; in order to produce more resilient cars that met the market demand.

Tesla is a fusion of a tech and manufacturing company.  You are telling me they are not gathering this data?

Whilst the possibility is there, it is remote enough to be vanishingly small.
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NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #637 on: October 16, 2018, 09:31:22 PM »
As Tesla sells more and more cars, their total “cost per vehicle” including their R&D WILL GO DOWN because the R&D is spread over a larger number of cars.  Of course the significant issue is whether or not Tesla’s chip/system is better or not, and by how much.

If you read the latest news on the launch of the Huawei Mate 20 pro and the new Kirin processor inside it, there are some very interesting figures around the AI chip baked into the silicon and the capabilities of the image processing.

It was stated in frames per minute, which looked like an impressively large number, especially as it was double or even triple other mainline phones.  Until you divide it by 60 and come to 75 frames per second.

If you think about it, Tesla is stating 300 frames per second.  Firstly that is impressive.  But if you think a little deeper, 25 frames per second is considered sufficient quality motion video for a movie and should be sufficient for an AI analysing the driving conditions.

300 divided by 25 gives you 12.  In other words the Tesla silicon has the ability to render and process 12 cameras running at 25 frames per second.  Or 6 camera's running at video game rates of 50 frames per second.

The Model S and Model X each have 8 camera's, one of which is rear facing.

This is not sounding to me like technology which is missing the mark.  It sounds like technology designed from the ground up to do the job.

Time will tell.
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NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #638 on: October 16, 2018, 09:34:51 PM »
Can a Tesla Bull please give me your theory as to why Tesla has decreased their production since the end on June if the claim that they have 420k reservations wasn't fraudulent?

How about the fact that the chart you are presenting is not an official chart but works from several metrics including Tesla owners wishing to register their VIN.

You will note, from the line, that it totally failed towards the end of September and had to be manually adjusted from Tesla communications on their actual production and sales.

Now, of course, you might still believe that Tesla lied about their production.  Then again, fresh from a brush with the SEC, that would be somewhat akin to complete lunacy.  Whilst there may be a reason to believe that of Musk, to a degree, there is no reason to believe the entire board has taken leave of their senses.
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TerryM

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #639 on: October 16, 2018, 09:39:55 PM »

If you want to go rant about "public transport" and where the best "benefit" could be made socially, go to China, go to Russia, go and see just how an authoritarian "socialist" government is good for the planet.



The Chinese I speak to view Canadian public transportation as antiquated, and the ubiquitous bullet trains as liberating and very "21st Century". I've no basis for arguing that our system is in any way comparable, let alone superior, to theirs.


As far as Russia having an "authoritarian socialist government", are you referring to the Post Soviet Union Russian Federation? - perhaps you were using "socialist" as the American Right uses it when describing the Canadian (and British) health care systems?


I grew up riding nationalized (socialist) rail systems. Was your experience so different?
Terry
« Last Edit: October 16, 2018, 09:50:09 PM by TerryM »

GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #640 on: October 16, 2018, 09:52:34 PM »
I've come across some interesting information that I'm trying to confirm/deny. Apparently the whole Tesla Auto Pilot learning from actual real world driving thing is just another Muskian scam / Teslie. Apparently the cars neither store nor trasmit data about driving. I've tried to figure out the veracity of this claim but to no avail. Any one have any info / thoughts?

If it doesn't, it will be the fist car, since the advent of the ECU, which monitors and stores diagnostic data, which does not.

The Tesla's don't even have discrete single purpose ECU style CPU's on board with EEprom burned software.  Tesla's have ROM, RAM and flash storage in quite large capacities to receive, hold and update the onboard system.

In terms of the data required the Tesla has thousands of times more storage space than is actually required to do this monitoring.

Ford was convicted, in the UK, of illegally accessing the ECU data from millions of UK Ford vehicles to try and determine how they were being driven; in order to produce more resilient cars that met the market demand.

Tesla is a fusion of a tech and manufacturing company.  You are telling me they are not gathering this data?

Whilst the possibility is there, it is remote enough to be vanishingly small.

That is mildly informative, but I don't think you understand the type of data necessary for improving aspiring self-driving tech. It is all about object recognition. So basically the car needs to be storing all the footage it takes, all the time. This isn't my specialty which is why I'm asking about it, but it seems to me that we would be talking about terabytes of data very regularly. Obviously it would make more sense to upload this data to Tesla HQ rather than just store it. I mean it has to all get centralized at some point anyways (which could be done during maintenance I guess), but I have never heard anything along these lines mentioned and it seems like something that would be discussed. Also, considering the history of Tesla saying whatever suites it best at any given moment, regardless of veracity, I find the "learning auto pilot" claims highly dubious.
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GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #641 on: October 16, 2018, 10:01:38 PM »
Can a Tesla Bull please give me your theory as to why Tesla has decreased their production since the end on June if the claim that they have 420k reservations wasn't fraudulent?

How about the fact that the chart you are presenting is not an official chart but works from several metrics including Tesla owners wishing to register their VIN.

You will note, from the line, that it totally failed towards the end of September and had to be manually adjusted from Tesla communications on their actual production and sales.

Now, of course, you might still believe that Tesla lied about their production.  Then again, fresh from a brush with the SEC, that would be somewhat akin to complete lunacy.  Whilst there may be a reason to believe that of Musk, to a degree, there is no reason to believe the entire board has taken leave of their senses.

"somewhat akin to complete lunacy."

This is exactly what I believe. I mean, this was happening at the same time that Musk invented the term "factory-gated" to be able to claim he met his goal of 5k per week for a week. He also attacked the SEC days after agreeing to a settlement that he had just walked away from (a better settlement) a few days earlier. THAT IS LUNACY. Announcing a solar roof tile that doesn't exist, lunacy. Announcing a go private deal locked up, just cuz, lunacy of epic proportions. I could go on and on, but I'd be reprimanded for my repetitious postings.

As for the board: It is mostly ppl beholden to Musk and they have never showed any sign of reigning Musk in. The let him buy Solar City which is sinking Tesla, and most notably, they didn't take his Twitter away when he decided to publicly accuse someone of being a pedophile just because they insulted him.
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NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #642 on: October 16, 2018, 10:39:06 PM »
Terry I was referring to the incredible environmental damage done in the name of "socialism" by both the USSR and China. Something China keeps on doing to this day.

They may have a modern transport system, in their special economic zones, but they also have some of the highest levels of pollution in the world.  Witness virtually having to shut down commerce to host the Olympics.

I, also, grew up on nationalised (socialist) rail systems.  The Labour party in the UK nationalised the railways after WWII.  They sucked.  People very rapidly forget just how bad those services were once they have a "fat cat" business to blame.  I stood from London to Newcastle several times on our wonderful nationalised rail services...  I saw quite a lot of long distance rail in the Army, as they issued rail warrants in preference to anything else as it cost them nothing.

The point I was making is that some wonderful utopian "socialist" idea does not mean we're going to solve the problem.  We have to target the biggest emitters first and then get to the rest later.  Those emitters don't live next to public transport which will take them to work.

In fact, in London, one of the biggest problems are what they call "Chelsea tractors".  Otherwise known as Range Rovers and Porsche Cayenne's used for taking the children to school.  Tell me, honestly, does London lack public transport?  The Tube is electric, almost all rail in and around London is electric and even the new routemaster busses are electric backed by a diesel generator.  They drop into electric within seconds of stopping or travelling slowly.

What, in the UK, do we need to do in order to reduce emissions?  Get those shiny, expensive, gas guzzling, vehicles off the roads and onto EV.

But let's not do the sensible thing.  No, let's spend billions on a fantastically clean Electrical Bus network for London to get rid of all those busses.  So they can mess up the traffic for all the Chelsea Tractors.  That would be a wonderful "political" solution.

Sorry my sarcasm meter is off the gauge.

When it comes to cleaning up our act on CO2, neither "Socialist" politics nor "Green" politics count.  Only less CO2 counts.  In the UK we "recycle" glass.  We produce 100m tonnes more CO2, recycling the glass, than we would produce if we just made new glass.

Now that is "Green Madness" and "Socialism gone crazy".  But it sells well.
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #643 on: October 16, 2018, 11:10:26 PM »

If you want to go rant about "public transport" and where the best "benefit" could be made socially, go to China, go to Russia, go and see just how an authoritarian "socialist" government is good for the planet.



The Chinese I speak to view Canadian public transportation as antiquated, and the ubiquitous bullet trains as liberating and very "21st Century". I've no basis for arguing that our system is in any way comparable, let alone superior, to theirs.


As far as Russia having an "authoritarian socialist government", are you referring to the Post Soviet Union Russian Federation? - perhaps you were using "socialist" as the American Right uses it when describing the Canadian (and British) health care systems?


I grew up riding nationalized (socialist) rail systems. Was your experience so different?
Terry

you see that exactly right. as a 7 years shenzhen resident i can say that chinese public transport is the only one world wide that i enjoy across the board, this included subways as well as trains (see it as a pleasure to use) buses are buses, modern or not, stop and go and/or full of commuters it's never really fun.

only downside which is mostly based on customs is that one needs a passport (and a visa) to travel between cities but then as i said, it's not a problem, it's just something we're not accustomed to ;)

during the 12 years i was in nova scotia and frequently visiting toronto and montreal, i'd say canadian public transport depends a lot locally, in places it's horrible in others it's very much ok.

gerontocrat

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #644 on: October 16, 2018, 11:28:03 PM »
The Judge approved the settlement with the SEC today.
The share price went up to $276
There are other lawsuits from aggrieved shareholders but I guess we are talking months & years before a court case.

I think TESLA is making an error in not getting the 35k model 3 out on the street. All the news is about auto drive and other tech stuff.

Meanwhile Hyundai will be selling a 250 mile range EV that with the FED credit might be just 20k to the customer. OK, not as clever or as pretty as a TESLA but for the average Joe or Jane............?
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #645 on: October 16, 2018, 11:47:55 PM »
I think we (I) have slid far from this thread's purpose.


On different thread sidd has posted of the free bus service in Dunkirk and how well it seems to be working.


This is something that I think might be applicable in many locals. At first, with diesel buses it will save CO2 as ridership is improved. As it modernizes by adding E-Buses, trolleys, subways & light rail the resulting savings in CO2 could be enormous.


When public transportation is seen as something only the poor use, it's a hard sell, similar to welfare doctors in charity hospitals. When it graduates to the transportation system used by all it becomes like Canadian hospitals. Not a cheap substitute for private care, but a subsidized system that everyone (almost) takes great pride in.


Locking yourself away while on a solitary drive to and from work is something that just about everyone complains of. As a friend about his commute.
If it were possible to hop onto a bus where you enjoyed the company of your neighbors, caught up on local news and gossip before proceeding on to work or home, people might grow to enjoy these jaunts. Stay at home moms, if they still exist, could gab with the neighbors as they're whisked to and from residential to retail areas.


I'll continue this on some other thread, but I think free (socialized) transportation is an idea whose time may have come.
Terry

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #646 on: October 17, 2018, 01:44:13 AM »
I think TESLA is making an error in not getting the 35k model 3 out on the street. All the news is about auto drive and other tech stuff.

What's more likely, Tesla is making an error in not getting out due to being silly or something OR that they have almost ZERO (if not negative) margin selling the 35K model, so they are better off staying the current course?
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #647 on: October 17, 2018, 03:32:50 AM »
IN DEFENSE OF ELON MUSK

https://www.popularmechanics.com/space/rockets/a23508636/defense-of-elon-musk/

Quote
Elon Musk is an engineer at heart, a tinkerer, a problem-solver—the kind of person Popular Mechanics has always championed—and the problems he’s trying to solve are hard. Really hard. He could find better ways to spend his money, that’s for sure. And yet there he is, trying to build gasless cars and build reusable rockets and build tunnels that make traffic go away. For all his faults and unpredictability, we need him out there doing that. We need people who have ideas. We need people who take risks.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #648 on: October 17, 2018, 03:47:09 AM »
I get that what Musk is trying to do is theoretically good. But I don't that justifies lying about ability to do such things. It seems like many many people are willing to give him a pass because they think the only way to get enough support to make these things happen is to lie about the costs, the timelines, the capabilities....but I think that logic sucks. I think long term it is unsustainable and actually detrimental to the supposed cause.
big time oops

Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #649 on: October 17, 2018, 04:07:55 AM »
Does this article count as anti-Tesla propaganda?  ;D
Man who has owned six Jaguars and dislikes Tesla takes ownership of first Jaguar I-PACE in U.S.

Jaguar Delivers First I-PACE In U.S. – Owner Not A Fan Of Tesla’s Style
https://insideevs.com/jaguar-delivers-first-i-pace-usa



Meanwhile, and somewhere else entirely, a Model 3 owner takes to the road:

“Commute home. Passed on left by white model 3 as I take highway on ramp. When I merge there are two red model 3s. This is OHIO. Wake up ICE car makers!”
https://twitter.com/28delayslater/status/1052301555158933509
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.