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oren

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1050 on: January 02, 2019, 11:42:35 PM »
I think it's pretty clear that in Q4 Tesla was demand-constrained rather than supply-constrained. I've been expecting this for the past month or two, based on several factors including the short wait times from order to delivery.
I am certain the US price cut was done to avoid a further drop in demand. Had the company still been supply-constrained, a good chance that the price cut would not have happened, despite margin improvements.
I still expect an extreme drop in US sales unless the 35k version appears, or leasing is offered.
I think this doesn't bode well for Tesla as a whole. Demand tapered off  much quicker that one would have guessed based on initial numbers
The same might happen in Europe and the rest of the world, again unless the 35k version appears quickly. But even that may noy buy the company more than a year - just my gut feeling. So end-2019 or mid-2020 a serious crisis could develop.
What could improve Tesla's future prospects is the model Y. Should it have a "normal" design, and should it appear quickly on the scene, with a low price point, it could prove to be a longer-lasting hit, as sedans are out of favour while SUVs/CUVs are more in general demand.

magnamentis

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1051 on: January 02, 2019, 11:46:24 PM »
@ zizek  If you have recordings or notes of the Board of Tesla saying those things, then ok.  Otherwise it's you who are delusional.

comeon, that was sarcastic and quite obviously so and by no means literally speaking.

we all know when companies who are not profitable lower their prices, it's quite common and some know what it means and others don't depending on the viewing angle or bias if you prefer that term.

not that i think that the ad hominem part was necessary or is a good think to call out adjectives of that kind but the meaning is clear and true, the real reason is to keep sales up or boost them.

we can all watch what will happen not so far out when all other great automakers start to seriously serve the market, it has already begun and they (tesla) are already feeling it for sure.
« Last Edit: January 02, 2019, 11:51:31 PM by magnamentis »
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Lurk

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1052 on: January 03, 2019, 12:10:01 AM »
- Because Tesla has a heart, and lowering its price is in keeping with its mission to accelerate the adoption of clean energy vehicles

Oh man, that's a classic! A For Profit Corporation with a 'heart'. Wow, who knew. It has to be a 1st. Do they have a Conscience too?

The biggest laugh I have had all year.  ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D

Yeah, it's only been 3 days!

ROTFLMAO though ;)
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Lurk

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1053 on: January 03, 2019, 12:24:19 AM »
I think it's pretty clear that in Q4 Tesla was demand-constrained rather than supply-constrained. I've been expecting this for the past month or two, based on several factors including the short wait times from order to delivery.
I am certain the US price cut was done to avoid a further drop in demand. Had the company still been supply-constrained, a good chance that the price cut would not have happened, despite margin improvements.
I still expect an extreme drop in US sales unless the 35k version appears, or leasing is offered.
I think this doesn't bode well for Tesla as a whole. Demand tapered off  much quicker that one would have guessed based on initial numbers
The same might happen in Europe and the rest of the world, again unless the 35k version appears quickly. But even that may noy buy the company more than a year - just my gut feeling. So end-2019 or mid-2020 a serious crisis could develop.
What could improve Tesla's future prospects is the model Y. Should it have a "normal" design, and should it appear quickly on the scene, with a low price point, it could prove to be a longer-lasting hit, as sedans are out of favour while SUVs/CUVs are more in general demand.

Sounds reasonable. Careful you may be in the wrong thread for that.

What happened to those 400K Orders (?) on a waiting list back in the middle of 2018? Given Tesla may have built about +100K cars since then. Surely they weren't engaging in hyperbolic spin back then? Surely not! Never in my wildest dreams would any Corporation or the CEO/Chairman of the Board ever do that.  ;D

That Share Price is back around the $300 mark yet again and primed to enter the $200s again tomorrow. Reminds me of Yoyos. Sooner or later that string broke completely.

Tesla stock tumbles after deliveries disappoint, price cuts announced
Published: Jan 2, 2019
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/tesla-stock-tumbles-after-deliveries-disappoint-price-cuts-announced-2019-01-02

So much for out of the 'goodness' of their heart  ;D
« Last Edit: January 03, 2019, 12:42:33 AM by Lurk »
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Archimid

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1054 on: January 03, 2019, 03:48:18 AM »
Quote
I think it's pretty clear that in Q4 Tesla was demand-constrained rather than supply-constrained.

I agree, specially towards the end of the year. This result seems to me like the first hint at what demand will look like going forward. I like what I see. More than 75% of the sales were new orders.

63,150 x .75 = 47,362.5.

13 weeks in a quarter that's 3,643 new US only and high end only Model 3 a week.

But 3.6k is probably not an accurate number for the demand of Model 3 since reservations were probably higher at the beginning of the quarter and December having mostly new orders. But I've seen no real info on that.

Quote
I am certain the US price cut was done to avoid a further drop in demand. Had the company still been supply-constrained, a good chance that the price cut would not have happened, despite margin improvements.


I'm surprised by this price cut.  I don't think it makes much sense as a demand driver. To drive you launch special sales and perks.  I think this was done because this is the mission of Tesla. To accelerate the advent of the electric car. Cheaper car means more people can buy them.


Quote
I still expect an extreme drop in US sales unless the 35k version appears, or leasing is offered.

I expect a small drop in US sales in January. If the market continues its downward trend, then the drop will remain until the Black Model 3 comes out. International sales will make up for the drop and then some.

The key is the Black Model 3. The 35k Model 3. When the Black Model 3 drops that's when the fun begins.

Quote
I think this doesn't bode well for Tesla as a whole.

I think it does, pending financial numbers.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1055 on: January 03, 2019, 05:58:45 PM »
Rob Maurer in his Tesla Daily Unofficial Podcast recently discussed Tesla Demand Concerns. The first part of the episode examines the stock price amidst the macro environment, but the second half:

He said, (paraphrasing): 
Tesla is trying to do something in Q4 it will very likely never have to do again:  deliver 5,000 to 6,000 highly-optioned Model 3 a week into just one region:  North America. 

Even when the Model 3 successfully ramps to 10,000 a week, and half continue to be sold in NA, Tesla will not need to sell that many high-end Model 3 as it did in Q4 2018 when it had no availability of the standard range and standard interior.

Tesla Daily: Tesla News and Analysis
Dec 20, 2018 episode.  Above discussion is @ ~5:00
https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/tesla-daily-tesla-news-analysis/id1273643094
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1056 on: January 03, 2019, 07:52:25 PM »
Auto stock returns in 2018...
Tesla: +7%
Toyota: -9%
GM: -15%
Fiat: -19%
Nissan: -20%
Volkswagen: -21%
Honda: -22%
Ford: -34%
Daimler: -34%
Tata: -63%
https://twitter.com/charliebilello/status/1080324069822816256
Image below.
(Tata Motors owns Jaguar [I-PACE])

 Some more from the world largest car market:
Brilliance; -72%
Great Wall Motor: -52%
Geely: -49%
Dong Feng: -22%
SAIC: -11%
https://twitter.com/globalstockpick/status/1080451758646714369
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1057 on: January 03, 2019, 08:09:14 PM »
Top-heavy ( ;) ) chart for 2018 EV sales in the U.S.
Full chart: https://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/
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magnamentis

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1058 on: January 03, 2019, 09:55:02 PM »
63'150 Model 3 sold

64'900 Model 3 sales expected

the missing number is probably to the partly faked Q3 boost, sure no-one wants to remember but that's about what i said, Q3 was tuned and the since no super recorded saved them Q4 was behind expectations as much.

again, i say it each time, i like the product but they can't survive in the shark's basin with their
business practices (conduct)

soon all major players like VW, Audi, MB, BMW, Jaguar will give them "saures" and ultimately one of them will take over tesla's car department.

my main complaint about this discussion is that so many headlines from either side are used to proof  a point and very few basic numbers and business predictions based on longterm experience are thoroughly discussed.

what i mean is that long-term only top managed businesses survive, no matter what size and market share they currently hold and with longerm experience i mean all the many examples of great products and company that went down the river (merged or went bust) due to not sufficientl skilled and serious management and mangement errors and/or PR problems.

i hope that all this post is not offending to anyone should not be but i predict humbly that withing 5-6 years tesla auto-branch will be in the hands of a big global player and it won't be a US-Company that will own it (the branch)

let's look and see, game on and till then i will mostly lurk to stay current on the matter.

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Archimid

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1059 on: January 03, 2019, 10:56:32 PM »
May I ask who expected 64,900? If I remember correctly the guidance given by Tesla was "more than Q3" and it was.
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TerryM

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1060 on: January 04, 2019, 01:44:34 AM »
The Toronto Star is a newspaper with a definite leftist bias. Their take on Tesla and Musk is less than flattering.

https://www.thestar.com/business/opinion/2018/12/30/elon-musk-makes-it-hard-to-keep-rooting-for-tesla.html

They point to possible ties between Musk and Ellison prior to his ascendancy to Tesla's board.

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TerryM

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1061 on: January 04, 2019, 02:08:48 AM »
Auto stock returns in 2018...
Tesla: +7%
Toyota: -9%
GM: -15%
Fiat: -19%
Nissan: -20%
Volkswagen: -21%
Honda: -22%
Ford: -34%
Daimler: -34%
Tata: -63%
https://twitter.com/charliebilello/status/1080324069822816256
Image below.
(Tata Motors owns Jaguar [I-PACE])

 Some more from the world largest car market:
Brilliance; -72%
Great Wall Motor: -52%
Geely: -49%
Dong Feng: -22%
SAIC: -11%
https://twitter.com/globalstockpick/status/1080451758646714369
It didn't take Tesla long to lose that +7% - and more.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-01-02/tesla-tumbles-after-model-3-deliveries-miss-company-announces-price-cuts

The above also discusses the 63,150 M3 deliveries vs. the expected, absorbing the tax credit and American price cuts.

TSLA Closed 2018 at $332,80 and now stands at $299,08

The 10K cars/wk that Musk promised back in 2017 have yet to appear. Are we still experiencing "production hell"
Terry

P.S. With the huge downturn in delivered cars throughout the US, how was it possible that Elon couldn't find available auto carrier trucks?


oren

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1062 on: January 04, 2019, 05:46:19 AM »
again, i say it each time, i like the product but they can't survive in the shark's basin with their
business practices (conduct)

soon all major players like VW, Audi, MB, BMW, Jaguar will give them "saures" and ultimately one of them will take over tesla's car department.

what i mean is that long-term only top managed businesses survive, no matter what size and market share they currently hold and with longerm experience i mean all the many examples of great products and company that went down the river (merged or went bust) due to not sufficientl skilled and serious management and mangement errors and/or PR problems.

i hope that all this post is not offending to anyone should not be but i predict humbly that withing 5-6 years tesla auto-branch will be in the hands of a big global player and it won't be a US-Company that will own it (the branch)
I think Tesla has loads of management problems but one huge management advantage - the clear focus on making the best EVs. While all the other car makers have been delaying for years, not wanting to cannibalize their existing business, and not wanting to hurt their dealers. I am sure they also never found how to make EVs profitably, and have focused on losing as little as possible while complying with emission regulations. This is why production numbers are limited, features are less than desirable, range and battery technology are inferior, and energy use per mile is much less efficient.
IMHO, this makes Tesla the better managed of the bunch, despite all the flaws associated with Elon's personality and the various "hells". Sometimes it's better to get the big thing right, while messing up all the little things.
Can a big carmaker swallow Tesla by out-competing them? Theoretically sure, but it's not as easy as it sounds. There's a huge investment involved, and lots of time as well. They have to transform the company, not just announce a couple of EV models and make grand statements. And they have to excel in battery technology and manufacture, not just buy it from somewhere, as this is the heart of the EV. I have yet to see any of it happening in any meaningful way.
The only ones that seem to be headed in the direction are VW, perhaps thanks to Dieselgate. But even they are focusing on announcements, with nothing to show for it yet. Another on the path seems to be Hyundai. We'll see how it goes, but IMHO there is no foregone conclusion in this race.

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1063 on: January 04, 2019, 09:37:43 AM »
I think the main challenge is start with selling the 35k model in high numbers and with a profit.

I think a lot of those 400k reservations are not for the top model. Having sold ~ 140k model 3 cars, with a part of them new orders, I still think they have at least 300k reservations waiting to be fullfilled.

With their current production numbers they have enough reservations for more than a year production

Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1064 on: January 04, 2019, 01:02:33 PM »
Quote
Model 3 VINs (@Model3VINs) 1/4/19, 5:23 AM
#Tesla registered 8,407 new #Model3 VINs. ~97% estimated to be dual motor. ~76% estimated to be European. Highest VIN is 207222.
https://twitter.com/model3vins/status/1081133990050820096
Quote
Website secured. Keep up with the latest batches and totals at model3vins.com

Edit: total Model 3 VINs registered since Jan 1 = 13,666.

—-
In a thread at the link below, Tom Randall explains why the Bloomberg Model 3 Tracker is quite accurate.  Sometimes. ;)

Quote
Tom Randall (@tsrandall) 1/2/19, 11:11 AM
Today Tesla reported its Q4 production numbers. Once again, our Model 3 Tracker nailed it, coming just -0.46% below the actual production figures. A few thoughts about the model's results 1/   
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-tesla-tracker/
https://twitter.com/tsrandall/status/1080496695895605248
« Last Edit: January 04, 2019, 01:11:54 PM by Sigmetnow »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1065 on: January 04, 2019, 01:22:57 PM »
BREAKING: Tesla Model 3 Is The #1 Best Selling Car In USA From An American Car Company
Quote
Sales numbers just came out from Ford, Honda, and Toyota. With those numbers and the Tesla sales numbers we received yesterday (along with a few simple estimates), we can see how the 5 top selling cars in the USA broke out in December 2018 and in the 4th quarter of 2018.

Overall, the Tesla Model 3 was the #4 top selling car in the USA in December and #5 in the 4th quarter.

The Tesla Model 3 was the only car from an American car company that was in the top 5 in both rankings, which also means it was the #1 top selling car in the US from an American car company.
https://cleantechnica.com/2019/01/03/breaking-tesla-model-3-is-the-1-best-selling-car-in-usa-from-an-american-car-company/
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NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1066 on: January 04, 2019, 09:04:58 PM »
Can a big carmaker swallow Tesla by out-competing them? Theoretically sure, but it's not as easy as it sounds. There's a huge investment involved

No kidding.  Initial investments from VAG (€34bn) and Daimler (Mercedes) (€10bn), for an "initial" run of limited numbers of EV ranges is indicative of just how much the incumbents are going to have to spend in order to catch up.

Think about it from a business perspective.  Tesla is a vehicle manufacturer and an energy company which produces the products to generate the energy to run their vehicles, sells power from a growing charging network (fuelling) and has multiple ranges in reasonable volume production with semi's on the chart.  Other companies are having to run flat out to catch up, offers in China are cheap and not very cheerful with incredibly low distance options and not a lot of longevity.

Even more important is that, now Tesla is over the profitability hump (most likely), all new vehicles and product lines they produce are going to be pushing money into the company. Whereas the incumbents are likely to be looking at EV's being a cost for at least the next 5-10 years.

From a hard headed business perspective Tesla is not only in the lead, it is way out ahead.  It is for Tesla to lose.

The saddest thing about all of this is that the new members on the board, the stifling of competition and the rowing back on initiatives which ramp up production are far more likely to bring on the demise of Tesla than the current incumbents.  Tesla should have been pushing for 7k Model 3's per week by now, pushing for the $35k model to come out within the next quarter and going forward all the time.

It is clear that the Musk led mad dash for volume and innovation is over, Tesla may not make 10k cars per week by end 2019 and that is going to be a really bad thing for Tesla.

In the end, I predict, the demise of Tesla will not come from the machinations of a mad genius, it will come from the stultifying chase for profit to be given to investors, rather than into the advancement of the Tesla brand and offerings.

Time will tell.  But the regulator has already had an impact.  Tesla is no longer on fire.  It is becoming another boring car company more than the death defying market leader it has been modelling to date.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1067 on: January 04, 2019, 10:06:56 PM »
Quote
Today’s Sandy Munro discussion on @Autoline was filled with incredible insights on Tesla profitability, design, competitive advantages, and more....
Here’s a tweetstorm recap, edited only for brevity or clarity.
The Twitter thread is rolled up into one page here: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1080996977859612673.html
[“Body & weight” quote is probably really “body in white.”]

Sandy Munro's Tesla Deep Dive - Autoline After Hours 447 - YouTube (1hr 42min!)
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Archimid

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1068 on: January 04, 2019, 11:52:37 PM »
Starting around 11:31 Munro shows a sample of a magnet from a Model 3 motor. The magnet is interesting because it uses the Hallbach effect to maximize the power of the magnets. He claims that the Model 3 motors are the cheapest, lightest and most powerful motors in the EV market. This advantage is in part due to the use of the Hallbach effect. .

The video is long and the guy from Bloomberg is misleading, often flat out wrong. He spews out typical anti-Tesla propaganda even as he attempt to gain credibility by half way complimenting Tesla and Elon. But the info Munro offers is well worth the cringe of listening to that guy.

I find it interesting how they have dialed down the Tesla hate relative to the first video.
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sidd

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1069 on: January 05, 2019, 05:42:16 AM »
Is the Hallbach magnet used in wind turbine generators yet ?

sidd

Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1070 on: January 05, 2019, 03:43:20 PM »
Pro-Tesla piece from Seeking Alpha :o makes the argument that the Tesla facility being built in Lathrop, California will produce the Model Y. 

(I note the new photos make it clear the building is not just a flat, warehouse structure.  And that the multitude of docking doors fits with Elon Musk’s comment that one of the big advantages of the “tent” GA line at Fremont is the ability to back supply trucks right up to the line, eliminating the logistics of offloading to storage, then subsequently feeding materials back to the line.  And Tesla did buy some trucking companies last year… ;) )

Tesla Q4 $641 Million Net Profit Estimate And Possible Model Y Factory
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4231366-tesla-q4-641-million-net-profit-estimate-possible-model-y-factory
Images below are from the article.

The article also discusses the cash Tesla could raise by opening reservations to the Model Y after the reveal (March?) — but Musk has said a decision hasn’t been made yet regarding reservations for the Model Y, so I could see Tesla simply opening the on-line configurator for Model Y orders for the version(s) it is ready to produce, whenever it is ready.  There is no question, demand for the Model Y will be huge, and Tesla now has enough experience with mass manufacturing, and clout with suppliers, that it will be able make a profit practically from the outset.  (And the company will be making enough profit on other cars and products that even having a loss on the Model Y for a few months will not be a big deal.)

Remember, Model 3 reservations back in 2016 were as much to provide proof to the industry that the world was eager to buy a capable EV, as it was a way to raise cash for Tesla.  People who reserved a Model 3 years ago are now getting their cars mere days or weeks before people placing new orders for the same version of the car, so the need for reservations for the purpose of planning production may be over.
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TerryM

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1071 on: January 05, 2019, 04:28:54 PM »
Is the Hallbach magnet used in wind turbine generators yet ?

sidd


Halbach Arrays have been extensively used for many decades. Refrigerator magnets that stick witty sayings, calender's, and to do lists to the sides of what was once referred to as an ice box are manufactured using Halbach Arrays.
I'm not sure that any brushless motors/generators are now built without this now rather hoary technology.

https://www.stanfordmagnets.com/what-are-the-applications-of-halbach-arrays.html

BTW
Why aren't they known as Mallinson Arrays to honor John C. Mallison who discovered them 55 years ago in 1973?

High Tech or Old Hat?
Terry

Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1072 on: January 05, 2019, 08:24:18 PM »
Today’s Sandy Munro discussion on @Autoline was filled with incredible insights on Tesla profitability, design, competitive advantages, and more....
...

Here’s a link to the article they displayed around minute 50, as Sandy Munro shows and discusses the Model 3’s unique, combined thermal pump system that obviates the need for a separate battery heater, cabin HVAC, and more.

The Tesla Model 3 'Superbottle' Easter Egg Is a Fascinating Packaging Solution
https://jalopnik.com/the-tesla-model-3s-superbottle-easter-egg-is-a-fascin-1830992728
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1073 on: January 06, 2019, 02:40:36 PM »
Tesla naysayers.  Predicting imminent Tesla demise since 2008. ;D

The Tesla Story Through The Eyes Of Tesla Shorts & Obsessive Critics
Excerpt:
Quote
Tesla Model S unveiled
It’s doomed. Tesla is doomed. Tesla can’t produce the car. No one will buy it. Sales of 10,000–15,000 a year? Pfff. For whom?

Tesla Model S wins top awards from Consumer Reports, owners, and big auto magazines.
It doesn’t matter — there are panel gaps and demand is drying up. They’ve worked through interested customers and demand is falling.

Tesla Model S demand grows, Tesla creates more production capacity and sales grow.
It’s just a phase, a trend, because Tesla is a novelty with far too much hype. Anyway, that demand growth was all an illusion and is fading now. Demand is falling now. Really. …
https://cleantechnica.com/2019/01/04/the-tesla-story-through-the-eyes-of-tesla-shorts-obsessive-critics/

The above article omits the oft-mentioned “Tesla Killer” threat:  The major auto manufacturers would simply and quickly surpass Tesla at the EV game, without breaking a sweat.  Let’s check in on how those companies are progressing:
Quote
→ Mercedes recently announced that the EQC, intended to be a competitor for Model X, will have a gradual rollout thanks to concerns over the vehicle’s battery and other electric powertrain components.
→ Audi has also had to delay the release of its new e-tron, due to issues with the vehicle’s software and with battery provider LG Chem, which may be getting ready to raise its prices (as reported by German news magazine Bild). Audi also lost face when it revealed that it plans to make the e-tron a special order in the US.**
→ Reviews of Jaguar’s I-PACE are coming in, and most agree that it’s a fine vehicle, but that it falls short of Model X in terms of efficiency, range and charging speed.
→ GM has decided to completely shut down production of its acclaimed Chevy Volt as of March 2019.
→ Amid the scandal involving CEO Carlos Ghosn, Nissan has postponed the much-anticipated launch of its long-range Leaf.
→ BMW’s board member in charge of development has admitted he expects 85% of the company’s cars will still have internal combustion engines in 2030.
→ Porsche’s vaunted Taycan is expected to be a money-loser, and the company expects line-level workers to share the pain. A Porsche exec recently said employees at the Taycan’s planned factory would have to give up regular salary increases for the next few years. …
https://cleantechnica.com/2019/01/05/accused-tesla-killers-cleared-of-all-charges/

** Audi is currently paying for online ads that claim, “the e-tron has shorter range, but quicker recharging than a Tesla Model X.”
https://twitter.com/28delayslater/status/1081521848637116416

Audi will also pay around $10 million for a commercial during the Super Bowl to promote its EVs — great news for Tesla, as it validates what they’ve been doing for years and supports the whole idea of EVs as a valid alternative to ICE cars.  But will it save Audi?
https://twitter.com/rec1pr0city/status/1081321394271592449

BMW 3-Series and 4-Series (considered to be their closest competition to Tesla) sales in 2018 were the worst in two decades. 
BMW is famous for its engineering of excellent ICE cars. That has now become an obstacle they may not overcome quickly enough.
https://twitter.com/valueanalyst1/status/1081600102668611585
Data at the link.

Market disruption:
U.S. sales of luxury branded cars and SUVs grew by an estimated 63,125 vehicles or 12% over the past 3 months vs. Q4 2017.
Tesla growth alone accounted for 62,775 vehicles- more than 99% of the luxury segment's increase.
https://twitter.com/icannot_enough/status/1081613877832568834

Image: U.S. 4th-quarter luxury brand sales, 2018 versus 2017.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1074 on: January 06, 2019, 02:46:14 PM »
James Stephenson
Quote
It's mystifying to me that anyone still thinks the Porsche Taycan or Jaguar i-Pace will be "Tesla Killers" when Tesla is already outselling *all Porsches & Jaguars combined* in the U.S. by a factor of 3.

And those aren't the only brands $TSLA is crushing... *profitably*. ...
https://twitter.com/icannot_enough/status/1081889214118141952
Image below.

That’s just in the U.S., though.... ;)

Breaking:  Elon Musk’s plane (flight plan) spotted heading to Shanghai.
Possible groundbreaking ceremony for Gigafactory 3? 
Months ahead of schedule, if so….

https://twitter.com/valueanalyst1/status/1081726635018194946
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crandles

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1075 on: January 06, 2019, 02:54:54 PM »


Breaking:  Elon Musk’s plane (flight plan) spotted heading to Shanghai.
Possible groundbreaking ceremony for Gigafactory 3? 
Months ahead of schedule, if so….

https://twitter.com/valueanalyst1/status/1081726635018194946

How long does it take to put up a tent?  ;)

Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1076 on: January 06, 2019, 04:38:08 PM »


Breaking:  Elon Musk’s plane (flight plan) spotted heading to Shanghai.
Possible groundbreaking ceremony for Gigafactory 3? 
Months ahead of schedule, if so….

https://twitter.com/valueanalyst1/status/1081726635018194946

How long does it take to put up a tent?  ;)

In China... a “tent” could probably be built in the time it takes to do the ceremony! ;D

Seriously, we had a good laugh at Faraday Future’s videos of equipment moving dirt around the site of their huge-Nevada-plant-to-be — until they abandoned it.  But if this really is the Giga 3 groundbreaking ceremony, I expect many important China government people will attend.


Edit:  I have read that Chinese businesses traditionally wait to start construction and employment until after the Chinese New Year.  But that is still a month away, so this could be another example of Elon’s time manipulation.  (Have you seen the amazing new rocket SpaceX has just about completed in Texas in only one month?!)
« Last Edit: January 06, 2019, 04:47:53 PM by Sigmetnow »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1077 on: January 07, 2019, 02:16:28 PM »
Tent secured!  ;D

Tesla Gigafactory 3 groundbreaking ceremony.

Quote
Vincent (@vincent13031925) 1/7/19, 5:58 AM
China Mainstream media CCTV reported Tesla Shanghai GF3 groundbreaking ceremony.
Target 3000 production per week to start, full capacity 500k/yr
Model Y will start production in GF3, year 2020
$TSLA #Tesla #China #TeslaChina
youtu.be/gV0QOCOnvmM
https://twitter.com/vincent13031925/status/1082229864558546944

Lots of pics, video and links in Vincent’s thread and his youtube channel.
https://twitter.com/vincent13031925/status/1082200684462624768
Tesla CEO Elon Musk speech at Shanghai Gigafactory groundbreaking ceremony 02 - YouTube


Elon Musk Says Shanghai Gigafactory Will Start Making Tesla Model 3s Soon
Quote
Musk is aiming for a speedy start to production with this new factory. After the groundbreaking ceremony, Tesla aims to finish initial construction by the end of this summer, before producing the first Model 3s by the end of the year. The team expects to reach high volume production in 2020.

The new timetable is a notable revision from previous estimates. Tesla held preliminary talks with Shanghai’s municipal government about building a factory in the summer of 2017, before signing a cooperative agreement in July 2018. In its announcement of the signing, Tesla claimed it would take two years to complete the factory after permits are approved, and a further two to three years before the factory will reach a production rate of 500,000 cars per year. The municipal government granted Tesla a construction permit that started from December 29, 2018.
https://www.inverse.com/amp/article/52263-elon-musk-says-the-next-gigafactory-will-start-making-tesla-model-3s-soon
« Last Edit: January 07, 2019, 02:22:19 PM by Sigmetnow »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1078 on: January 07, 2019, 02:56:46 PM »
SCHOOLING JIM CRAMER:

Quote
Jim Cramer (@jimcramer) 1/6/19, 10:31 PM
Must we worry that consumers are concerned about buying American @elonmusk ? Even if we are the best?
https://twitter.com/jimcramer/status/1082117387799818240
Quote
Elon Musk (@elonmusk)1/6/19, 10:43 PM
@jimcramer Shanghai Giga output is just for greater China, not North America. Affordable cars must be made on same continent as customers.
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1082120550447792129

Quote
Elon Musk (@elonmusk) 1/6/19, 10:34 PM
Shanghai Giga production of Model 3/Y will serve greater China region
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1082118212546953216
Shanghai Giga will produce affordable versions of 3/Y for greater China. All Model S/X & higher cost versions of Model 3/Y will still be built in US for [worldwide] market, incl China.


    —-
Quote
...
Given the pace of Tesla Gigafactory 3 development since the middle of last year, it has seemed likely that Tesla was targeting a 2019 production kickoff in Shanghai.

As always, the production would ramp up slowly. (You have to work out the kinks and move forward one alien dreadnought step at a time.) So, Elon doesn’t anticipate high-volume production will start until 2020. Nonetheless, that’s as quick as reasonable Tesla bulls could dream, and approximately 1,000 years sooner than Tesla shorts and critics expected. ...
https://cleantechnica.com/2019/01/07/tesla-model-3-production-could-start-in-china-this-year-and-model-y/
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TerryM

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1079 on: January 07, 2019, 10:58:06 PM »
https://twitter.com/jimcramer/status/1082117387799818240
Quote
Elon Musk (@elonmusk)1/6/19, 10:43 PM
@jimcramer Shanghai Giga output is just for greater China, not North America. Affordable cars must be made on same continent as customers.
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1082120550447792129
It's fortunate that VW, Honda & Toyota were never privy to this fact::)


Was this intended as sarcasm, an ironic comment, Onionesque humor, or offered as a device to deflect any serious discussion about the efficacy of moving yet more American jobs to China?


China successfully exports everything from plastic crib mobiles to prefabricated buildings and giant construction equipment, yet we find it necessary to build a factory in Shanghai to supply the Chinese market with cars powered by Japanese batteries?
Describing vehicle designed to sell for in excess of $30K US as "affordable cars" is a hell of a stretch, but justifying the move by claiming that they "must be made on the same continent as the customers", is such a ridiculous statement that it can't be intended to be taken seriously.


Terry

sidd

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1080 on: January 08, 2019, 12:27:54 AM »
Re: making cars locally

zoomed past a Honda plant today thats been making cars in ohio since early 80s ... toyota has been doin the same

in the reagan years, during the anti japanese sentiment,  both those companies had paperwork ready to turn into US corps in twenty four hours. I happened to know about it since i had a lawyer friend who drew up some of the filings necessary.

sidd

magnamentis

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1081 on: January 08, 2019, 01:10:11 AM »
Re: making cars locally

zoomed past a Honda plant today thats been making cars in ohio since early 80s ... toyota has been doin the same

in the reagan years, during the anti japanese sentiment,  both those companies had paperwork ready to turn into US corps in twenty four hours. I happened to know about it since i had a lawyer friend who drew up some of the filings necessary.

sidd

but those are only specific models, i.e. BMW makes cars in spartanburg USA and ships them to germany and produces other models in germany and ships hem to the US etc.

what i'm saying is that building a factory in another country or continent does not mean that all cars for that country or continent are built there, it's more a political thing to get rid of restrictions and other hassles or in other words, to get on good terms with the governments of countries they want to export to in big numbers.

even when the swiss governement bought fighter planes (FA-18) from the US or "Mirages" from the french, they assembled and maintained most of their foreign weaponry locally, kind of part of the deal to get parts of the value added chains back to be taxed and V.A.T.ed to reduce the net costs of the purchase and build jobs etc.

in short, to sell a U.S car elsewhere it's never been "necessary" to produce it oversease and vice versa, reasons are not economically mandatory but politically/strategically motivated.
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TerryM

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1082 on: January 08, 2019, 01:42:13 AM »
Re: making cars locally

zoomed past a Honda plant today thats been making cars in ohio since early 80s ... toyota has been doin the same

in the reagan years, during the anti japanese sentiment,  both those companies had paperwork ready to turn into US corps in twenty four hours. I happened to know about it since i had a lawyer friend who drew up some of the filings necessary.

sidd


Two of the largest ~local employers are Toyota factories, one of which will be manufacturing North America's E-Rave4s. :)


Back when VW bugs were every Californian hippy's dream, they were all shipped in through Long Beach. Affordable vehicles from the other side of the world, a concept lost to this generation?


Reagan's xenophobic followers forced foreign manufacturers to assemble cars in North America, but without that impetus I'm sure they'd have been happy to ship us our fill of good inexpensive imports for a very long time.


Musk's California factory was once a joint GM/Toyota factory, capable of producing an average of 6,000 high quality cars/week - and without a tent, extra shifts or overtime!


The link is to an article written as that partnership ended and the plant closed. It touches on the Toyota quality first system & GM's reaction.


https://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=125229157

Terry

oren

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1083 on: January 08, 2019, 02:08:02 AM »
https://twitter.com/jimcramer/status/1082117387799818240
Quote
Elon Musk (@elonmusk)1/6/19, 10:43 PM
@jimcramer Shanghai Giga output is just for greater China, not North America. Affordable cars must be made on same continent as customers.
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1082120550447792129
It's fortunate that VW, Honda & Toyota were never privy to this fact::)


Was this intended as sarcasm, an ironic comment, Onionesque humor, or offered as a device to deflect any serious discussion about the efficacy of moving yet more American jobs to China?


China successfully exports everything from plastic crib mobiles to prefabricated buildings and giant construction equipment, yet we find it necessary to build a factory in Shanghai to supply the Chinese market with cars powered by Japanese batteries?
Describing vehicle designed to sell for in excess of $30K US as "affordable cars" is a hell of a stretch, but justifying the move by claiming that they "must be made on the same continent as the customers", is such a ridiculous statement that it can't be intended to be taken seriously.


Terry
Shipping cars costs money, and even more so it costs time, severely hitting on cash flow as it increases the delay between product completion and actual delivery. But I am sure that is not the reason for the rush to build the factory, that is more of a long-term reason why it makes sense to build a local car factory in a very large market.
The Chinese factory plans were accelerated after the escalation of the tariff war. As the Chinese are sticking something like 40% extra on imported cars, what is there not to understand about the need to manufacture cars for the Chinese market locally?
I am sure Tesla would be happy to continue manufacturing cars in California for the Chinese market for at least another extra year, were it not for the tariffs.
By the way, the batteries in the Model 3 and future models are not Japanese-made, but produced locally in the Gigafactory - indeed by a Japanese company.

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1084 on: January 08, 2019, 08:58:03 AM »
Yeah, with the current trade war and tariffs on cars, it just makes no sense not considering those when building a new factory. And I think production in China is easier and cheaper than in the USA, even without those tariffs and without transport costs

crandles

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1085 on: January 08, 2019, 02:19:50 PM »
Even without tariff considerations:

Cheaper labour but more transportation costs may make sense.
But more expensive labour and more transportation costs doesn't make sense.

oren

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1086 on: January 08, 2019, 02:26:52 PM »
Quote
deflect any serious discussion about the efficacy of moving yet more American jobs to China?
Terry, you forget another thing in your haste to judge Tesla - no American jobs are moving to China. The decision is where to build up new production, currently non-existent.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1087 on: January 08, 2019, 03:24:17 PM »
Good interview w/ Elon Musk at the Shanghai giga site. (Article and Video)
Elon Musk talks rapid Tesla Gigafactory 3 construction, cites Supercharger buildout in 12 days
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-ceo-elon-musk-rapid-shanghai-gigafactory-3-construction/

Do a little dance… ;D


——- About 8,000 “European” Model 3 VIN numbers have been registered since 1/1/2019....
BREAKING: I think the first European Tesla Model 3 cars are ready to ship!
Look carefully at the cars from this Fremont photo...EU license plate holders are installed on the cars!
https://twitter.com/alterviggo/status/1082421424969510912
Photo at the link.  Also here: https://t.co/3uY132r9M6
From a Reddit comment:  Model 3 may be skipping the usual final assembly in Tilburg (which can’t handle mass volumes) and going straight to Zeebrugge, Belgium, which has said they are expecting 3,000 a week.
 
——-
Model 3 VINs (@Model3VINs) 1/7/19, 11:45 AM
#Tesla registered 28 new #Model3 VINs. ~0% estimated to be dual motor. ~0% estimated to be European. ...
https://twitter.com/model3vins/status/1082317229536960512
Are these for a test batch of standard range Model 3???

——-
Very quietly, over last 90 days, analysts have increased Tesla’s 2019 Earnings Per Share estimate (was $2.94) to $6.88.
https://twitter.com/yunlinsj/status/1082179735470301184
Data at the link.

————-
Tesla’s Life After Hell: 7 Charts Show Musk on Firmer Footing
By Tom Randall January 7, 2019
Quote
One year ago, Tesla Inc. was struggling to turn out a few hundred Model 3 sedans in a week—and then things got worse. Elaborate plans for factory automation had to be scrapped at extraordinary cost, debts piled up and investors were spooked. At the lowest moments of 2018, Chief Executive Office Elon Musk said, the company bled $100 million a week. 
To start 2019, Tesla is turning out more than 4,700 Model 3s each week. The electric-car maker has emerged from its year of existential uncertainty as one of the most valuable car companies in the world, with a stock value greater than Ford Motor Co., General Motors Co., BMW AG and, depending on the day of the week, Daimler AG. This may end up helping the company reduce its debt obligations and limit future borrowing costs. The hot mess that was last year has, somewhat surprisingly, forged Tesla into a company on more solid footing for the year ahead.
As more cars roll out, money is flowing in. The Model 3 is now  generating more revenue than any other sedan in the U.S., and Tesla’s cash flows have flipped from burning about $1.7 billion in the first half of 2018 to generating $774 million in the third quarter. (Results for the fourth quarter and full year are expected in February.)
A decade after cobbling together its first car, Tesla and its  havoc-making CEO still have much to prove. But the question of whether Tesla would ever make the leap to mass manufacturing has been answered. Here are seven themes capturing Tesla’s tumultuous year of “production hell” and indicating where the company could go next. ...
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2019-01-07/tesla-s-life-after-hell-7-charts-show-musk-on-firmer-footing

Or if you prefer the Twitter version:
Tom Randall (@tsrandall) 1/7/19, 11:48 AM
Tesla's Life After Hell. Today we published seven charts (and two retro video-game gifs) showing Tesla's trip to the brink and back in 2018 ...
https://twitter.com/tsrandall/status/1082318189466394630
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1088 on: January 10, 2019, 10:15:46 PM »
Elon Musk’s warm reception in China is a wake-up call to Tesla’s skeptics
Quote
It should be noted that Elon Musk and the Chinese Premier held a meeting at the Tower of Violet Light in Beijing — a place usually reserved for the country’s most distinguished guests. In a way, it is no exaggeration to state that Musk received a welcome worthy of a foreign dignitary by the Chinese government. Considering that Musk is a foreign automaker CEO, such warm reception does indicate the country’s open support for Tesla and Gigafactory 3.
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-elon-musk-gigafactory-model-3-support-china-tsla-tslaq/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1089 on: January 11, 2019, 07:57:18 PM »
...
Very quietly, over last 90 days, analysts have increased Tesla’s 2019 Earnings Per Share estimate (was $2.94) to $6.88.
https://twitter.com/yunlinsj/status/1082179735470301184
Data at the link.
...

Looks like the above may be an attempt by the bears to manipulate Tesla stock price, by artificially raising “Wall Street” revenue estimates so high that a Q4 results miss is more likely.  The two highest estimates are from long-time, consistent “bear” (anti-Tesla) analysts.

Near the end of December, a similar effort was done to mysteriously raise Street estimates of Tesla production and deliveries — which were within company guidance, but lower than the latest analyst (mostly unpublicized) estimates, and led to a significant stock price drop.
Quote
Vladimir Grinshpun (@VGrinshpun) 1/11/19, 8:42 AM
$TSLA
Below is a teslamotorsclub.com post outlining apparent attempt to manipulate revenue consensus by short sellers. The goal is to generate a "miss" narrative.
...
https://twitter.com/vgrinshpun/status/1083720755102273536
Data and text explanation images at the link. “Canaccord and Needham”. Or see the TMC link below.

Excerpt of the teslamotorsclub post:
Quote
“Yes, and it appears to be pretty clear to me that the shorts are trying to manipulate Thomson First Call consensus as well for Q4'18 TSLA results:
   ◦   There's evidence of significant gaming of the First Call consensus by bearish analysts, the top 2 revenue estimates are actually ALL from bearish analysts:
   ▪   "Canaccord" initiated TSLA coverage half a year ago with a bearish outlook. They gave a number of mostly bearish interviews and stopped talking about Tesla after the positive Q3 results altogether ...
   ▪   "Needham" of "Tesla's True Value is 'Closer to $200'" infame has the second highest revenue estimate ... Total silence from Needham after the positive Q3 earnings report.
   ▪   "Oppenheimer" is the first genuine bullish analyst.
   ◦   Without the fake revenue entries the true median consensus would be below $7b - at around $6.8b-$6.9b...”
https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/tesla-tsla-the-investment-world-the-2019-investors-roundtable.139047/page-151#post-3326367

Quote
Vladimir Grinshpun (@VGrinshpun) 1/11/19, 8:53 AM
This is similar to what was successfully done with the fake "deliveries "miss"
$TSLA
https://twitter.com/vgrinshpun/status/1083723552971546624


Edit:
For those interested: Rob Maurer has a good discussion of the negative media coverage surrounding the Q4 production numbers “miss” and consequences thereof in his January 2, 2019 podcast:
Q4 Delivery & Production Numbers, $2,000 US Price Decreases
Posted on January 2, 2019
http://techcastdaily.com/2019/01/02/q4-delivery-production-numbers-2000-us-price-decreases-01-02-19/
« Last Edit: January 13, 2019, 08:26:59 PM by Sigmetnow »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1090 on: January 11, 2019, 08:08:26 PM »
Quote
Model 3 VINs (@Model3VINs) 1/11/19, 12:33 PM
#Tesla registered 21,308 new #Model3 VINs. ~100% estimated to be dual motor. ~73% estimated to be International. Highest VIN is 229766. ...
https://twitter.com/model3vins/status/1083779042585636865

January 1 to Jan 11, 2019:  36,210 Model 3 VINs have been registered
For comparison, Q4 total: 75,605

Quote
James Stephenson (@ICannot_Enough) 1/11/19, 8:09 AM
Many worried that with the tax credit phaseout now beginning, $TSLA would face a “valley of death” in demand. But Tesla’s strategy addresses that concern:
 
• 2018: maximize US deliveries w/ full tax credit
• Early 2019: ship Model 3 to Europe & China
• Late 2019: sell $35K Model 3
https://twitter.com/icannot_enough/status/1083712391253245952

Quote
Zap Rowsdower (@TheTripeCo) 1/11/19, 8:27 AM
It’s almost like…Tesla has planned this out long term and chose not to discuss it publicly
I enjoyed how the media looked at the Jan 2nd price cut and concluded that indicated in 1 day Tesla was reacting to a drop in demand, rather than an obvious extension of this plan.
https://twitter.com/thetripeco/status/1083717093047054336


——
Quote
Somehow, we lost.  (@somehowwelost) 1/11/19, 4:59 AM
Die Invasion beginnt. Tausende @Tesla Model 3 machen sich gerade auf den Weg nach Europa. Bald werden es zehntausende, hunderttausende, Millionen sein. Und die deutsche Automobilindustrie schaut hilflos zu.

MS Translation: The invasion begins. Thousands @Tesla of Model 3s are heading to Europe right now. Soon it will be tens of thousands, hundreds of thousands, millions. And the German automotive industry is watching helplessly.
https://twitter.com/somehowwelost/status/1083664606302752773
Images at the link of hundreds of Tesla cars in GLOVIS vehicle-shipping parking lot.
Edit: or here:  https://electrek.co/2019/01/11/tesla-model-3-shipment-oversea-deliveries/

[Headed for Europe, or China?]
Quote
MacGyver (@MacGyver_BE) 1/11/19, 7:55 AM
Europe almost guaranteed. The 20 inch Performance rims on these cars aren't available in the configurator in China.
https://twitter.com/macgyver_be/status/1083709089065172993

Edit: UPDATE:  GLOVIS Captain departed Pier 80 in San Francisco early on 12 Jan, headed south to the Panama Canal.  So, definitely Europe! 
ETA Panama is 20 Jan. Currently making about 18 knots.
« Last Edit: January 13, 2019, 12:55:07 PM by Sigmetnow »
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TerryM

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1091 on: January 11, 2019, 10:07:53 PM »
Quote
deflect any serious discussion about the efficacy of moving yet more American jobs to China?
Terry, you forget another thing in your haste to judge Tesla - no American jobs are moving to China. The decision is where to build up new production, currently non-existent.

There are and will be Americans building Model S,X, and high price range Mod.3s in California. The huge majority of Mod.3s sold in China will however be manufactured in Shanghai.

When Toyota decided to build their Rave4-Ev here in Ontario, these were jobs that could have been enjoyed by Californians, Japanese, or even by workers in far off Woodstock Ontario :) . The vehicles were sold exclusively in California, picking up a $2,500 state subsidy as well as a federal $7,500 subsidy which flowed from the Japanese parent company to one of it's Canadian factories.

You can argue that the jobs were non-existent in Japan or in California, and while Canadian workers building Japanese vehicles for the Californian market won't look a gift horse in the mouth, the fact remains that more Japanese, or more Californians could have been employed to the benefit of their respective countries.

Musk's decision to hire Chinese workers as opposed to Californian workers is based at least in part by the recent trade debacle, but it's impossible not to acknowledge that Tesla could have increased his Fremont or his Sparks (or possibly even his Buffalo workforce)? to meet this expected demand. California, New York State, and the Federal Government might have been expecting a little more loyalty from the recipient of their largesse.

Gigafactory II in Buffalo is still far short of hiring it's promised workforce of 5,000, and New York State is less than pleased at the return it's seeing on it's ($Billion)? investment.


Terry


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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1092 on: January 12, 2019, 03:42:57 AM »
Sigmetnow I observed the new strategy too, but I'm not terribly concerned about it. Whether Tesla hits or misses some random analyst target will not stop Model 3 from being seen and driven.  At current and estimated profit rates the mission keeps moving along with hundreds of millions in profits turned into increased battery, solar panel and EV production.

I think that for now, the stock price is really not all that important. The money for the big March payment will be there if the stock doesn't hit the target price so growth will continue. If Tesla does hit the target price growth accelerates even more.

These are very exiting times for Tesla and EVs in general.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1093 on: January 16, 2019, 07:13:42 AM »
After laying off 9% of the Tesla workforce last June, Space-X announces that 10% of their workers will be "let go".
A $500M sale of equity and securities only raised $273M earlier this month, though this isn't given as the reason for the layoffs.


https://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-spacex-layoffs-20190111-story.html

Terry
« Last Edit: January 16, 2019, 08:42:03 AM by TerryM »

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1095 on: January 16, 2019, 10:41:32 AM »
If you need the world to talk about your company, hire Musk ;)