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oren

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1050 on: January 04, 2019, 05:46:19 AM »
again, i say it each time, i like the product but they can't survive in the shark's basin with their
business practices (conduct)

soon all major players like VW, Audi, MB, BMW, Jaguar will give them "saures" and ultimately one of them will take over tesla's car department.

what i mean is that long-term only top managed businesses survive, no matter what size and market share they currently hold and with longerm experience i mean all the many examples of great products and company that went down the river (merged or went bust) due to not sufficientl skilled and serious management and mangement errors and/or PR problems.

i hope that all this post is not offending to anyone should not be but i predict humbly that withing 5-6 years tesla auto-branch will be in the hands of a big global player and it won't be a US-Company that will own it (the branch)
I think Tesla has loads of management problems but one huge management advantage - the clear focus on making the best EVs. While all the other car makers have been delaying for years, not wanting to cannibalize their existing business, and not wanting to hurt their dealers. I am sure they also never found how to make EVs profitably, and have focused on losing as little as possible while complying with emission regulations. This is why production numbers are limited, features are less than desirable, range and battery technology are inferior, and energy use per mile is much less efficient.
IMHO, this makes Tesla the better managed of the bunch, despite all the flaws associated with Elon's personality and the various "hells". Sometimes it's better to get the big thing right, while messing up all the little things.
Can a big carmaker swallow Tesla by out-competing them? Theoretically sure, but it's not as easy as it sounds. There's a huge investment involved, and lots of time as well. They have to transform the company, not just announce a couple of EV models and make grand statements. And they have to excel in battery technology and manufacture, not just buy it from somewhere, as this is the heart of the EV. I have yet to see any of it happening in any meaningful way.
The only ones that seem to be headed in the direction are VW, perhaps thanks to Dieselgate. But even they are focusing on announcements, with nothing to show for it yet. Another on the path seems to be Hyundai. We'll see how it goes, but IMHO there is no foregone conclusion in this race.

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1051 on: January 04, 2019, 09:37:43 AM »
I think the main challenge is start with selling the 35k model in high numbers and with a profit.

I think a lot of those 400k reservations are not for the top model. Having sold ~ 140k model 3 cars, with a part of them new orders, I still think they have at least 300k reservations waiting to be fullfilled.

With their current production numbers they have enough reservations for more than a year production

Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1052 on: January 04, 2019, 01:02:33 PM »
Quote
Model 3 VINs (@Model3VINs) 1/4/19, 5:23 AM
#Tesla registered 8,407 new #Model3 VINs. ~97% estimated to be dual motor. ~76% estimated to be European. Highest VIN is 207222.
https://twitter.com/model3vins/status/1081133990050820096
Quote
Website secured. Keep up with the latest batches and totals at model3vins.com

Edit: total Model 3 VINs registered since Jan 1 = 13,666.

—-
In a thread at the link below, Tom Randall explains why the Bloomberg Model 3 Tracker is quite accurate.  Sometimes. ;)

Quote
Tom Randall (@tsrandall) 1/2/19, 11:11 AM
Today Tesla reported its Q4 production numbers. Once again, our Model 3 Tracker nailed it, coming just -0.46% below the actual production figures. A few thoughts about the model's results 1/   
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-tesla-tracker/
https://twitter.com/tsrandall/status/1080496695895605248
« Last Edit: January 04, 2019, 01:11:54 PM by Sigmetnow »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1053 on: January 04, 2019, 01:22:57 PM »
BREAKING: Tesla Model 3 Is The #1 Best Selling Car In USA From An American Car Company
Quote
Sales numbers just came out from Ford, Honda, and Toyota. With those numbers and the Tesla sales numbers we received yesterday (along with a few simple estimates), we can see how the 5 top selling cars in the USA broke out in December 2018 and in the 4th quarter of 2018.

Overall, the Tesla Model 3 was the #4 top selling car in the USA in December and #5 in the 4th quarter.

The Tesla Model 3 was the only car from an American car company that was in the top 5 in both rankings, which also means it was the #1 top selling car in the US from an American car company.
https://cleantechnica.com/2019/01/03/breaking-tesla-model-3-is-the-1-best-selling-car-in-usa-from-an-american-car-company/
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NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1054 on: January 04, 2019, 09:04:58 PM »
Can a big carmaker swallow Tesla by out-competing them? Theoretically sure, but it's not as easy as it sounds. There's a huge investment involved

No kidding.  Initial investments from VAG (€34bn) and Daimler (Mercedes) (€10bn), for an "initial" run of limited numbers of EV ranges is indicative of just how much the incumbents are going to have to spend in order to catch up.

Think about it from a business perspective.  Tesla is a vehicle manufacturer and an energy company which produces the products to generate the energy to run their vehicles, sells power from a growing charging network (fuelling) and has multiple ranges in reasonable volume production with semi's on the chart.  Other companies are having to run flat out to catch up, offers in China are cheap and not very cheerful with incredibly low distance options and not a lot of longevity.

Even more important is that, now Tesla is over the profitability hump (most likely), all new vehicles and product lines they produce are going to be pushing money into the company. Whereas the incumbents are likely to be looking at EV's being a cost for at least the next 5-10 years.

From a hard headed business perspective Tesla is not only in the lead, it is way out ahead.  It is for Tesla to lose.

The saddest thing about all of this is that the new members on the board, the stifling of competition and the rowing back on initiatives which ramp up production are far more likely to bring on the demise of Tesla than the current incumbents.  Tesla should have been pushing for 7k Model 3's per week by now, pushing for the $35k model to come out within the next quarter and going forward all the time.

It is clear that the Musk led mad dash for volume and innovation is over, Tesla may not make 10k cars per week by end 2019 and that is going to be a really bad thing for Tesla.

In the end, I predict, the demise of Tesla will not come from the machinations of a mad genius, it will come from the stultifying chase for profit to be given to investors, rather than into the advancement of the Tesla brand and offerings.

Time will tell.  But the regulator has already had an impact.  Tesla is no longer on fire.  It is becoming another boring car company more than the death defying market leader it has been modelling to date.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1055 on: January 04, 2019, 10:06:56 PM »
Quote
Today’s Sandy Munro discussion on @Autoline was filled with incredible insights on Tesla profitability, design, competitive advantages, and more....
Here’s a tweetstorm recap, edited only for brevity or clarity.
The Twitter thread is rolled up into one page here: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1080996977859612673.html
[“Body & weight” quote is probably really “body in white.”]

Sandy Munro's Tesla Deep Dive - Autoline After Hours 447 - YouTube (1hr 42min!)
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Archimid

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1056 on: January 04, 2019, 11:52:37 PM »
Starting around 11:31 Munro shows a sample of a magnet from a Model 3 motor. The magnet is interesting because it uses the Hallbach effect to maximize the power of the magnets. He claims that the Model 3 motors are the cheapest, lightest and most powerful motors in the EV market. This advantage is in part due to the use of the Hallbach effect. .

The video is long and the guy from Bloomberg is misleading, often flat out wrong. He spews out typical anti-Tesla propaganda even as he attempt to gain credibility by half way complimenting Tesla and Elon. But the info Munro offers is well worth the cringe of listening to that guy.

I find it interesting how they have dialed down the Tesla hate relative to the first video.
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sidd

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1057 on: January 05, 2019, 05:42:16 AM »
Is the Hallbach magnet used in wind turbine generators yet ?

sidd

Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1058 on: January 05, 2019, 03:43:20 PM »
Pro-Tesla piece from Seeking Alpha :o makes the argument that the Tesla facility being built in Lathrop, California will produce the Model Y. 

(I note the new photos make it clear the building is not just a flat, warehouse structure.  And that the multitude of docking doors fits with Elon Musk’s comment that one of the big advantages of the “tent” GA line at Fremont is the ability to back supply trucks right up to the line, eliminating the logistics of offloading to storage, then subsequently feeding materials back to the line.  And Tesla did buy some trucking companies last year… ;) )

Tesla Q4 $641 Million Net Profit Estimate And Possible Model Y Factory
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4231366-tesla-q4-641-million-net-profit-estimate-possible-model-y-factory
Images below are from the article.

The article also discusses the cash Tesla could raise by opening reservations to the Model Y after the reveal (March?) — but Musk has said a decision hasn’t been made yet regarding reservations for the Model Y, so I could see Tesla simply opening the on-line configurator for Model Y orders for the version(s) it is ready to produce, whenever it is ready.  There is no question, demand for the Model Y will be huge, and Tesla now has enough experience with mass manufacturing, and clout with suppliers, that it will be able make a profit practically from the outset.  (And the company will be making enough profit on other cars and products that even having a loss on the Model Y for a few months will not be a big deal.)

Remember, Model 3 reservations back in 2016 were as much to provide proof to the industry that the world was eager to buy a capable EV, as it was a way to raise cash for Tesla.  People who reserved a Model 3 years ago are now getting their cars mere days or weeks before people placing new orders for the same version of the car, so the need for reservations for the purpose of planning production may be over.
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TerryM

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1059 on: January 05, 2019, 04:28:54 PM »
Is the Hallbach magnet used in wind turbine generators yet ?

sidd


Halbach Arrays have been extensively used for many decades. Refrigerator magnets that stick witty sayings, calender's, and to do lists to the sides of what was once referred to as an ice box are manufactured using Halbach Arrays.
I'm not sure that any brushless motors/generators are now built without this now rather hoary technology.

https://www.stanfordmagnets.com/what-are-the-applications-of-halbach-arrays.html

BTW
Why aren't they known as Mallinson Arrays to honor John C. Mallison who discovered them 55 years ago in 1973?

High Tech or Old Hat?
Terry

Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1060 on: January 05, 2019, 08:24:18 PM »
Today’s Sandy Munro discussion on @Autoline was filled with incredible insights on Tesla profitability, design, competitive advantages, and more....
...

Here’s a link to the article they displayed around minute 50, as Sandy Munro shows and discusses the Model 3’s unique, combined thermal pump system that obviates the need for a separate battery heater, cabin HVAC, and more.

The Tesla Model 3 'Superbottle' Easter Egg Is a Fascinating Packaging Solution
https://jalopnik.com/the-tesla-model-3s-superbottle-easter-egg-is-a-fascin-1830992728
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1061 on: January 06, 2019, 02:40:36 PM »
Tesla naysayers.  Predicting imminent Tesla demise since 2008. ;D

The Tesla Story Through The Eyes Of Tesla Shorts & Obsessive Critics
Excerpt:
Quote
Tesla Model S unveiled
It’s doomed. Tesla is doomed. Tesla can’t produce the car. No one will buy it. Sales of 10,000–15,000 a year? Pfff. For whom?

Tesla Model S wins top awards from Consumer Reports, owners, and big auto magazines.
It doesn’t matter — there are panel gaps and demand is drying up. They’ve worked through interested customers and demand is falling.

Tesla Model S demand grows, Tesla creates more production capacity and sales grow.
It’s just a phase, a trend, because Tesla is a novelty with far too much hype. Anyway, that demand growth was all an illusion and is fading now. Demand is falling now. Really. …
https://cleantechnica.com/2019/01/04/the-tesla-story-through-the-eyes-of-tesla-shorts-obsessive-critics/

The above article omits the oft-mentioned “Tesla Killer” threat:  The major auto manufacturers would simply and quickly surpass Tesla at the EV game, without breaking a sweat.  Let’s check in on how those companies are progressing:
Quote
→ Mercedes recently announced that the EQC, intended to be a competitor for Model X, will have a gradual rollout thanks to concerns over the vehicle’s battery and other electric powertrain components.
→ Audi has also had to delay the release of its new e-tron, due to issues with the vehicle’s software and with battery provider LG Chem, which may be getting ready to raise its prices (as reported by German news magazine Bild). Audi also lost face when it revealed that it plans to make the e-tron a special order in the US.**
→ Reviews of Jaguar’s I-PACE are coming in, and most agree that it’s a fine vehicle, but that it falls short of Model X in terms of efficiency, range and charging speed.
→ GM has decided to completely shut down production of its acclaimed Chevy Volt as of March 2019.
→ Amid the scandal involving CEO Carlos Ghosn, Nissan has postponed the much-anticipated launch of its long-range Leaf.
→ BMW’s board member in charge of development has admitted he expects 85% of the company’s cars will still have internal combustion engines in 2030.
→ Porsche’s vaunted Taycan is expected to be a money-loser, and the company expects line-level workers to share the pain. A Porsche exec recently said employees at the Taycan’s planned factory would have to give up regular salary increases for the next few years. …
https://cleantechnica.com/2019/01/05/accused-tesla-killers-cleared-of-all-charges/

** Audi is currently paying for online ads that claim, “the e-tron has shorter range, but quicker recharging than a Tesla Model X.”
https://twitter.com/28delayslater/status/1081521848637116416

Audi will also pay around $10 million for a commercial during the Super Bowl to promote its EVs — great news for Tesla, as it validates what they’ve been doing for years and supports the whole idea of EVs as a valid alternative to ICE cars.  But will it save Audi?
https://twitter.com/rec1pr0city/status/1081321394271592449

BMW 3-Series and 4-Series (considered to be their closest competition to Tesla) sales in 2018 were the worst in two decades. 
BMW is famous for its engineering of excellent ICE cars. That has now become an obstacle they may not overcome quickly enough.
https://twitter.com/valueanalyst1/status/1081600102668611585
Data at the link.

Market disruption:
U.S. sales of luxury branded cars and SUVs grew by an estimated 63,125 vehicles or 12% over the past 3 months vs. Q4 2017.
Tesla growth alone accounted for 62,775 vehicles- more than 99% of the luxury segment's increase.
https://twitter.com/icannot_enough/status/1081613877832568834

Image: U.S. 4th-quarter luxury brand sales, 2018 versus 2017.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1062 on: January 06, 2019, 02:46:14 PM »
James Stephenson
Quote
It's mystifying to me that anyone still thinks the Porsche Taycan or Jaguar i-Pace will be "Tesla Killers" when Tesla is already outselling *all Porsches & Jaguars combined* in the U.S. by a factor of 3.

And those aren't the only brands $TSLA is crushing... *profitably*. ...
https://twitter.com/icannot_enough/status/1081889214118141952
Image below.

That’s just in the U.S., though.... ;)

Breaking:  Elon Musk’s plane (flight plan) spotted heading to Shanghai.
Possible groundbreaking ceremony for Gigafactory 3? 
Months ahead of schedule, if so….

https://twitter.com/valueanalyst1/status/1081726635018194946
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crandles

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1063 on: January 06, 2019, 02:54:54 PM »


Breaking:  Elon Musk’s plane (flight plan) spotted heading to Shanghai.
Possible groundbreaking ceremony for Gigafactory 3? 
Months ahead of schedule, if so….

https://twitter.com/valueanalyst1/status/1081726635018194946

How long does it take to put up a tent?  ;)

Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1064 on: January 06, 2019, 04:38:08 PM »


Breaking:  Elon Musk’s plane (flight plan) spotted heading to Shanghai.
Possible groundbreaking ceremony for Gigafactory 3? 
Months ahead of schedule, if so….

https://twitter.com/valueanalyst1/status/1081726635018194946

How long does it take to put up a tent?  ;)

In China... a “tent” could probably be built in the time it takes to do the ceremony! ;D

Seriously, we had a good laugh at Faraday Future’s videos of equipment moving dirt around the site of their huge-Nevada-plant-to-be — until they abandoned it.  But if this really is the Giga 3 groundbreaking ceremony, I expect many important China government people will attend.


Edit:  I have read that Chinese businesses traditionally wait to start construction and employment until after the Chinese New Year.  But that is still a month away, so this could be another example of Elon’s time manipulation.  (Have you seen the amazing new rocket SpaceX has just about completed in Texas in only one month?!)
« Last Edit: January 06, 2019, 04:47:53 PM by Sigmetnow »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1065 on: January 07, 2019, 02:16:28 PM »
Tent secured!  ;D

Tesla Gigafactory 3 groundbreaking ceremony.

Quote
Vincent (@vincent13031925) 1/7/19, 5:58 AM
China Mainstream media CCTV reported Tesla Shanghai GF3 groundbreaking ceremony.
Target 3000 production per week to start, full capacity 500k/yr
Model Y will start production in GF3, year 2020
$TSLA #Tesla #China #TeslaChina
youtu.be/gV0QOCOnvmM
https://twitter.com/vincent13031925/status/1082229864558546944

Lots of pics, video and links in Vincent’s thread and his youtube channel.
https://twitter.com/vincent13031925/status/1082200684462624768
Tesla CEO Elon Musk speech at Shanghai Gigafactory groundbreaking ceremony 02 - YouTube


Elon Musk Says Shanghai Gigafactory Will Start Making Tesla Model 3s Soon
Quote
Musk is aiming for a speedy start to production with this new factory. After the groundbreaking ceremony, Tesla aims to finish initial construction by the end of this summer, before producing the first Model 3s by the end of the year. The team expects to reach high volume production in 2020.

The new timetable is a notable revision from previous estimates. Tesla held preliminary talks with Shanghai’s municipal government about building a factory in the summer of 2017, before signing a cooperative agreement in July 2018. In its announcement of the signing, Tesla claimed it would take two years to complete the factory after permits are approved, and a further two to three years before the factory will reach a production rate of 500,000 cars per year. The municipal government granted Tesla a construction permit that started from December 29, 2018.
https://www.inverse.com/amp/article/52263-elon-musk-says-the-next-gigafactory-will-start-making-tesla-model-3s-soon
« Last Edit: January 07, 2019, 02:22:19 PM by Sigmetnow »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1066 on: January 07, 2019, 02:56:46 PM »
SCHOOLING JIM CRAMER:

Quote
Jim Cramer (@jimcramer) 1/6/19, 10:31 PM
Must we worry that consumers are concerned about buying American @elonmusk ? Even if we are the best?
https://twitter.com/jimcramer/status/1082117387799818240
Quote
Elon Musk (@elonmusk)1/6/19, 10:43 PM
@jimcramer Shanghai Giga output is just for greater China, not North America. Affordable cars must be made on same continent as customers.
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1082120550447792129

Quote
Elon Musk (@elonmusk) 1/6/19, 10:34 PM
Shanghai Giga production of Model 3/Y will serve greater China region
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1082118212546953216
Shanghai Giga will produce affordable versions of 3/Y for greater China. All Model S/X & higher cost versions of Model 3/Y will still be built in US for [worldwide] market, incl China.


    —-
Quote
...
Given the pace of Tesla Gigafactory 3 development since the middle of last year, it has seemed likely that Tesla was targeting a 2019 production kickoff in Shanghai.

As always, the production would ramp up slowly. (You have to work out the kinks and move forward one alien dreadnought step at a time.) So, Elon doesn’t anticipate high-volume production will start until 2020. Nonetheless, that’s as quick as reasonable Tesla bulls could dream, and approximately 1,000 years sooner than Tesla shorts and critics expected. ...
https://cleantechnica.com/2019/01/07/tesla-model-3-production-could-start-in-china-this-year-and-model-y/
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TerryM

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1067 on: January 07, 2019, 10:58:06 PM »
https://twitter.com/jimcramer/status/1082117387799818240
Quote
Elon Musk (@elonmusk)1/6/19, 10:43 PM
@jimcramer Shanghai Giga output is just for greater China, not North America. Affordable cars must be made on same continent as customers.
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1082120550447792129
It's fortunate that VW, Honda & Toyota were never privy to this fact::)


Was this intended as sarcasm, an ironic comment, Onionesque humor, or offered as a device to deflect any serious discussion about the efficacy of moving yet more American jobs to China?


China successfully exports everything from plastic crib mobiles to prefabricated buildings and giant construction equipment, yet we find it necessary to build a factory in Shanghai to supply the Chinese market with cars powered by Japanese batteries?
Describing vehicle designed to sell for in excess of $30K US as "affordable cars" is a hell of a stretch, but justifying the move by claiming that they "must be made on the same continent as the customers", is such a ridiculous statement that it can't be intended to be taken seriously.


Terry

sidd

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1068 on: January 08, 2019, 12:27:54 AM »
Re: making cars locally

zoomed past a Honda plant today thats been making cars in ohio since early 80s ... toyota has been doin the same

in the reagan years, during the anti japanese sentiment,  both those companies had paperwork ready to turn into US corps in twenty four hours. I happened to know about it since i had a lawyer friend who drew up some of the filings necessary.

sidd

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1069 on: January 08, 2019, 01:10:11 AM »
Re: making cars locally

zoomed past a Honda plant today thats been making cars in ohio since early 80s ... toyota has been doin the same

in the reagan years, during the anti japanese sentiment,  both those companies had paperwork ready to turn into US corps in twenty four hours. I happened to know about it since i had a lawyer friend who drew up some of the filings necessary.

sidd

but those are only specific models, i.e. BMW makes cars in spartanburg USA and ships them to germany and produces other models in germany and ships hem to the US etc.

what i'm saying is that building a factory in another country or continent does not mean that all cars for that country or continent are built there, it's more a political thing to get rid of restrictions and other hassles or in other words, to get on good terms with the governments of countries they want to export to in big numbers.

even when the swiss governement bought fighter planes (FA-18) from the US or "Mirages" from the french, they assembled and maintained most of their foreign weaponry locally, kind of part of the deal to get parts of the value added chains back to be taxed and V.A.T.ed to reduce the net costs of the purchase and build jobs etc.

in short, to sell a U.S car elsewhere it's never been "necessary" to produce it oversease and vice versa, reasons are not economically mandatory but politically/strategically motivated.
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TerryM

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1070 on: January 08, 2019, 01:42:13 AM »
Re: making cars locally

zoomed past a Honda plant today thats been making cars in ohio since early 80s ... toyota has been doin the same

in the reagan years, during the anti japanese sentiment,  both those companies had paperwork ready to turn into US corps in twenty four hours. I happened to know about it since i had a lawyer friend who drew up some of the filings necessary.

sidd


Two of the largest ~local employers are Toyota factories, one of which will be manufacturing North America's E-Rave4s. :)


Back when VW bugs were every Californian hippy's dream, they were all shipped in through Long Beach. Affordable vehicles from the other side of the world, a concept lost to this generation?


Reagan's xenophobic followers forced foreign manufacturers to assemble cars in North America, but without that impetus I'm sure they'd have been happy to ship us our fill of good inexpensive imports for a very long time.


Musk's California factory was once a joint GM/Toyota factory, capable of producing an average of 6,000 high quality cars/week - and without a tent, extra shifts or overtime!


The link is to an article written as that partnership ended and the plant closed. It touches on the Toyota quality first system & GM's reaction.


https://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=125229157

Terry

oren

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1071 on: January 08, 2019, 02:08:02 AM »
https://twitter.com/jimcramer/status/1082117387799818240
Quote
Elon Musk (@elonmusk)1/6/19, 10:43 PM
@jimcramer Shanghai Giga output is just for greater China, not North America. Affordable cars must be made on same continent as customers.
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1082120550447792129
It's fortunate that VW, Honda & Toyota were never privy to this fact::)


Was this intended as sarcasm, an ironic comment, Onionesque humor, or offered as a device to deflect any serious discussion about the efficacy of moving yet more American jobs to China?


China successfully exports everything from plastic crib mobiles to prefabricated buildings and giant construction equipment, yet we find it necessary to build a factory in Shanghai to supply the Chinese market with cars powered by Japanese batteries?
Describing vehicle designed to sell for in excess of $30K US as "affordable cars" is a hell of a stretch, but justifying the move by claiming that they "must be made on the same continent as the customers", is such a ridiculous statement that it can't be intended to be taken seriously.


Terry
Shipping cars costs money, and even more so it costs time, severely hitting on cash flow as it increases the delay between product completion and actual delivery. But I am sure that is not the reason for the rush to build the factory, that is more of a long-term reason why it makes sense to build a local car factory in a very large market.
The Chinese factory plans were accelerated after the escalation of the tariff war. As the Chinese are sticking something like 40% extra on imported cars, what is there not to understand about the need to manufacture cars for the Chinese market locally?
I am sure Tesla would be happy to continue manufacturing cars in California for the Chinese market for at least another extra year, were it not for the tariffs.
By the way, the batteries in the Model 3 and future models are not Japanese-made, but produced locally in the Gigafactory - indeed by a Japanese company.

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1072 on: January 08, 2019, 08:58:03 AM »
Yeah, with the current trade war and tariffs on cars, it just makes no sense not considering those when building a new factory. And I think production in China is easier and cheaper than in the USA, even without those tariffs and without transport costs

crandles

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1073 on: January 08, 2019, 02:19:50 PM »
Even without tariff considerations:

Cheaper labour but more transportation costs may make sense.
But more expensive labour and more transportation costs doesn't make sense.

oren

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1074 on: January 08, 2019, 02:26:52 PM »
Quote
deflect any serious discussion about the efficacy of moving yet more American jobs to China?
Terry, you forget another thing in your haste to judge Tesla - no American jobs are moving to China. The decision is where to build up new production, currently non-existent.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1075 on: January 08, 2019, 03:24:17 PM »
Good interview w/ Elon Musk at the Shanghai giga site. (Article and Video)
Elon Musk talks rapid Tesla Gigafactory 3 construction, cites Supercharger buildout in 12 days
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-ceo-elon-musk-rapid-shanghai-gigafactory-3-construction/

Do a little dance… ;D


——- About 8,000 “European” Model 3 VIN numbers have been registered since 1/1/2019....
BREAKING: I think the first European Tesla Model 3 cars are ready to ship!
Look carefully at the cars from this Fremont photo...EU license plate holders are installed on the cars!
https://twitter.com/alterviggo/status/1082421424969510912
Photo at the link.  Also here: https://t.co/3uY132r9M6
From a Reddit comment:  Model 3 may be skipping the usual final assembly in Tilburg (which can’t handle mass volumes) and going straight to Zeebrugge, Belgium, which has said they are expecting 3,000 a week.
 
——-
Model 3 VINs (@Model3VINs) 1/7/19, 11:45 AM
#Tesla registered 28 new #Model3 VINs. ~0% estimated to be dual motor. ~0% estimated to be European. ...
https://twitter.com/model3vins/status/1082317229536960512
Are these for a test batch of standard range Model 3???

——-
Very quietly, over last 90 days, analysts have increased Tesla’s 2019 Earnings Per Share estimate (was $2.94) to $6.88.
https://twitter.com/yunlinsj/status/1082179735470301184
Data at the link.

————-
Tesla’s Life After Hell: 7 Charts Show Musk on Firmer Footing
By Tom Randall January 7, 2019
Quote
One year ago, Tesla Inc. was struggling to turn out a few hundred Model 3 sedans in a week—and then things got worse. Elaborate plans for factory automation had to be scrapped at extraordinary cost, debts piled up and investors were spooked. At the lowest moments of 2018, Chief Executive Office Elon Musk said, the company bled $100 million a week. 
To start 2019, Tesla is turning out more than 4,700 Model 3s each week. The electric-car maker has emerged from its year of existential uncertainty as one of the most valuable car companies in the world, with a stock value greater than Ford Motor Co., General Motors Co., BMW AG and, depending on the day of the week, Daimler AG. This may end up helping the company reduce its debt obligations and limit future borrowing costs. The hot mess that was last year has, somewhat surprisingly, forged Tesla into a company on more solid footing for the year ahead.
As more cars roll out, money is flowing in. The Model 3 is now  generating more revenue than any other sedan in the U.S., and Tesla’s cash flows have flipped from burning about $1.7 billion in the first half of 2018 to generating $774 million in the third quarter. (Results for the fourth quarter and full year are expected in February.)
A decade after cobbling together its first car, Tesla and its  havoc-making CEO still have much to prove. But the question of whether Tesla would ever make the leap to mass manufacturing has been answered. Here are seven themes capturing Tesla’s tumultuous year of “production hell” and indicating where the company could go next. ...
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2019-01-07/tesla-s-life-after-hell-7-charts-show-musk-on-firmer-footing

Or if you prefer the Twitter version:
Tom Randall (@tsrandall) 1/7/19, 11:48 AM
Tesla's Life After Hell. Today we published seven charts (and two retro video-game gifs) showing Tesla's trip to the brink and back in 2018 ...
https://twitter.com/tsrandall/status/1082318189466394630
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1076 on: January 10, 2019, 10:15:46 PM »
Elon Musk’s warm reception in China is a wake-up call to Tesla’s skeptics
Quote
It should be noted that Elon Musk and the Chinese Premier held a meeting at the Tower of Violet Light in Beijing — a place usually reserved for the country’s most distinguished guests. In a way, it is no exaggeration to state that Musk received a welcome worthy of a foreign dignitary by the Chinese government. Considering that Musk is a foreign automaker CEO, such warm reception does indicate the country’s open support for Tesla and Gigafactory 3.
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-elon-musk-gigafactory-model-3-support-china-tsla-tslaq/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1077 on: January 11, 2019, 07:57:18 PM »
...
Very quietly, over last 90 days, analysts have increased Tesla’s 2019 Earnings Per Share estimate (was $2.94) to $6.88.
https://twitter.com/yunlinsj/status/1082179735470301184
Data at the link.
...

Looks like the above may be an attempt by the bears to manipulate Tesla stock price, by artificially raising “Wall Street” revenue estimates so high that a Q4 results miss is more likely.  The two highest estimates are from long-time, consistent “bear” (anti-Tesla) analysts.

Near the end of December, a similar effort was done to mysteriously raise Street estimates of Tesla production and deliveries — which were within company guidance, but lower than the latest analyst (mostly unpublicized) estimates, and led to a significant stock price drop.
Quote
Vladimir Grinshpun (@VGrinshpun) 1/11/19, 8:42 AM
$TSLA
Below is a teslamotorsclub.com post outlining apparent attempt to manipulate revenue consensus by short sellers. The goal is to generate a "miss" narrative.
...
https://twitter.com/vgrinshpun/status/1083720755102273536
Data and text explanation images at the link. “Canaccord and Needham”. Or see the TMC link below.

Excerpt of the teslamotorsclub post:
Quote
“Yes, and it appears to be pretty clear to me that the shorts are trying to manipulate Thomson First Call consensus as well for Q4'18 TSLA results:
   ◦   There's evidence of significant gaming of the First Call consensus by bearish analysts, the top 2 revenue estimates are actually ALL from bearish analysts:
   ▪   "Canaccord" initiated TSLA coverage half a year ago with a bearish outlook. They gave a number of mostly bearish interviews and stopped talking about Tesla after the positive Q3 results altogether ...
   ▪   "Needham" of "Tesla's True Value is 'Closer to $200'" infame has the second highest revenue estimate ... Total silence from Needham after the positive Q3 earnings report.
   ▪   "Oppenheimer" is the first genuine bullish analyst.
   ◦   Without the fake revenue entries the true median consensus would be below $7b - at around $6.8b-$6.9b...”
https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/tesla-tsla-the-investment-world-the-2019-investors-roundtable.139047/page-151#post-3326367

Quote
Vladimir Grinshpun (@VGrinshpun) 1/11/19, 8:53 AM
This is similar to what was successfully done with the fake "deliveries "miss"
$TSLA
https://twitter.com/vgrinshpun/status/1083723552971546624


Edit:
For those interested: Rob Maurer has a good discussion of the negative media coverage surrounding the Q4 production numbers “miss” and consequences thereof in his January 2, 2019 podcast:
Q4 Delivery & Production Numbers, $2,000 US Price Decreases
Posted on January 2, 2019
http://techcastdaily.com/2019/01/02/q4-delivery-production-numbers-2000-us-price-decreases-01-02-19/
« Last Edit: January 13, 2019, 08:26:59 PM by Sigmetnow »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1078 on: January 11, 2019, 08:08:26 PM »
Quote
Model 3 VINs (@Model3VINs) 1/11/19, 12:33 PM
#Tesla registered 21,308 new #Model3 VINs. ~100% estimated to be dual motor. ~73% estimated to be International. Highest VIN is 229766. ...
https://twitter.com/model3vins/status/1083779042585636865

January 1 to Jan 11, 2019:  36,210 Model 3 VINs have been registered
For comparison, Q4 total: 75,605

Quote
James Stephenson (@ICannot_Enough) 1/11/19, 8:09 AM
Many worried that with the tax credit phaseout now beginning, $TSLA would face a “valley of death” in demand. But Tesla’s strategy addresses that concern:
 
• 2018: maximize US deliveries w/ full tax credit
• Early 2019: ship Model 3 to Europe & China
• Late 2019: sell $35K Model 3
https://twitter.com/icannot_enough/status/1083712391253245952

Quote
Zap Rowsdower (@TheTripeCo) 1/11/19, 8:27 AM
It’s almost like…Tesla has planned this out long term and chose not to discuss it publicly
I enjoyed how the media looked at the Jan 2nd price cut and concluded that indicated in 1 day Tesla was reacting to a drop in demand, rather than an obvious extension of this plan.
https://twitter.com/thetripeco/status/1083717093047054336


——
Quote
Somehow, we lost.  (@somehowwelost) 1/11/19, 4:59 AM
Die Invasion beginnt. Tausende @Tesla Model 3 machen sich gerade auf den Weg nach Europa. Bald werden es zehntausende, hunderttausende, Millionen sein. Und die deutsche Automobilindustrie schaut hilflos zu.

MS Translation: The invasion begins. Thousands @Tesla of Model 3s are heading to Europe right now. Soon it will be tens of thousands, hundreds of thousands, millions. And the German automotive industry is watching helplessly.
https://twitter.com/somehowwelost/status/1083664606302752773
Images at the link of hundreds of Tesla cars in GLOVIS vehicle-shipping parking lot.
Edit: or here:  https://electrek.co/2019/01/11/tesla-model-3-shipment-oversea-deliveries/

[Headed for Europe, or China?]
Quote
MacGyver (@MacGyver_BE) 1/11/19, 7:55 AM
Europe almost guaranteed. The 20 inch Performance rims on these cars aren't available in the configurator in China.
https://twitter.com/macgyver_be/status/1083709089065172993

Edit: UPDATE:  GLOVIS Captain departed Pier 80 in San Francisco early on 12 Jan, headed south to the Panama Canal.  So, definitely Europe! 
ETA Panama is 20 Jan. Currently making about 18 knots.
« Last Edit: January 13, 2019, 12:55:07 PM by Sigmetnow »
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TerryM

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1079 on: January 11, 2019, 10:07:53 PM »
Quote
deflect any serious discussion about the efficacy of moving yet more American jobs to China?
Terry, you forget another thing in your haste to judge Tesla - no American jobs are moving to China. The decision is where to build up new production, currently non-existent.

There are and will be Americans building Model S,X, and high price range Mod.3s in California. The huge majority of Mod.3s sold in China will however be manufactured in Shanghai.

When Toyota decided to build their Rave4-Ev here in Ontario, these were jobs that could have been enjoyed by Californians, Japanese, or even by workers in far off Woodstock Ontario :) . The vehicles were sold exclusively in California, picking up a $2,500 state subsidy as well as a federal $7,500 subsidy which flowed from the Japanese parent company to one of it's Canadian factories.

You can argue that the jobs were non-existent in Japan or in California, and while Canadian workers building Japanese vehicles for the Californian market won't look a gift horse in the mouth, the fact remains that more Japanese, or more Californians could have been employed to the benefit of their respective countries.

Musk's decision to hire Chinese workers as opposed to Californian workers is based at least in part by the recent trade debacle, but it's impossible not to acknowledge that Tesla could have increased his Fremont or his Sparks (or possibly even his Buffalo workforce)? to meet this expected demand. California, New York State, and the Federal Government might have been expecting a little more loyalty from the recipient of their largesse.

Gigafactory II in Buffalo is still far short of hiring it's promised workforce of 5,000, and New York State is less than pleased at the return it's seeing on it's ($Billion)? investment.


Terry


Archimid

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1080 on: January 12, 2019, 03:42:57 AM »
Sigmetnow I observed the new strategy too, but I'm not terribly concerned about it. Whether Tesla hits or misses some random analyst target will not stop Model 3 from being seen and driven.  At current and estimated profit rates the mission keeps moving along with hundreds of millions in profits turned into increased battery, solar panel and EV production.

I think that for now, the stock price is really not all that important. The money for the big March payment will be there if the stock doesn't hit the target price so growth will continue. If Tesla does hit the target price growth accelerates even more.

These are very exiting times for Tesla and EVs in general.
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TerryM

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1081 on: January 16, 2019, 07:13:42 AM »
After laying off 9% of the Tesla workforce last June, Space-X announces that 10% of their workers will be "let go".
A $500M sale of equity and securities only raised $273M earlier this month, though this isn't given as the reason for the layoffs.


https://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-spacex-layoffs-20190111-story.html

Terry
« Last Edit: January 16, 2019, 08:42:03 AM by TerryM »

TerryM

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RikW

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1083 on: January 16, 2019, 10:41:32 AM »
If you need the world to talk about your company, hire Musk ;)

crandles

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1084 on: January 18, 2019, 03:04:17 PM »
Quote
"This quarter will hopefully allow us, with great difficulty, effort and some luck, to target a tiny profit," he wrote.

doesn't sound good.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46919489

Archimid

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1085 on: January 18, 2019, 05:23:02 PM »
Who wr
Quote
"This quarter will hopefully allow us, with great difficulty, effort and some luck, to target a tiny profit," he wrote.

doesn't sound good.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46919489

Who wrote that? I can’t find that in the official comm or the linked article.

edit: Nevermind. It’s in the letter. They are talking about 18Q4. For I second I thought they were talking about 19Q1
« Last Edit: January 18, 2019, 05:29:48 PM by Archimid »
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TerryM

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1086 on: January 18, 2019, 09:24:27 PM »
The fundamental laws of business, finance, and economics have not yet been repealed.

$920M convertible bonds still due in March?

Paid in cash if stock under ~$360/share?

Nice looking car though.


The due date is March 1st. the amount is $920Million, and the borrowers will demand cash, unless TSLA is trading above $359.87.

30 business days from today is when the rubber meets the road.

When 9% of Elon's workforce was fired last June he stated:
"I also want to emphasize that we are making this hard decision now so that we never have to do this again."


One month ago today Elon revealed progress on his boring project 'neath the streets of LA. It wasn't well received, as Elon noted "We kind of ran out of time". Others weren't so kind.

Jan. 02 saw Tesla slash prices by $2,000/unit after missing sales expectations.

Jan. 08 Elon twitters about hovering Roadsters taking to the sky.

On Jan. 13 Space X furloughed 10% of their workforce after missing a $500Million equity sale by $227Million.


On Jan. 18, Tesla announces he'll lay off 7% of workers even as he struggles to sell more vehicles.

A rough road ahead in every field he's invested in. Whatever happened to those much heralded solar roof tiles?
Terry


oren

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1087 on: January 18, 2019, 10:34:43 PM »
As was evident through the quarter reading between the lines, not enough US demand came through to meet Tesla's newfound production capabilities. Now it seems European demand for the higher-priced versions is also limited. The base $35k version is what's supposed to generate further demand, when it finally arrives. Seems the latest moves of cutting headcount, as well as scrapping the referral program, are intended to enable making the base version profitably and thus accelerate its availability.
I wouldn't bury the company just yet, as I do expect them to pull through. And I strongly doubt the bond payment will be a showstopper.

Archimid

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1088 on: January 19, 2019, 01:27:53 AM »
Quote
The due date is March 1st. the amount is $920Million, and the borrowers will demand cash, unless TSLA is trading above $359.87.

So? As of the end of Q3 Tesla had plenty of cash to pay if the lenders want full cash and the target is not met. Unspent cash is value that is not growing anyway.

Quote
30 business days from today is when the rubber meets the road.

Because of the payment they can make? Nah.

Quote
When 9% of Elon's workforce was fired last June he stated:
"I also want to emphasize that we are making this hard decision now so that we never have to do this again."

The sad reality. A company that wants to accelerate the advent of a sustainable world needs to be sustainable itself. Inefficiencies must be rooted out. This won't be the last sacrifice. The people that got Tesla to where it is today deserve better than this. Achieving Tesla's mission won't be easy. 

Quote
Jan. 08 Elon twitters about hovering Roadsters taking to the sky.

There is no law of physics that prohibits this from happening. Space X, Tesla and Elun Musk have the expertise and resources to pull this off. All you need is compressed air, some smartly placed nozzles and a very good AI to pull it off.

 He didn't say the car could hover. He said the car could take small hops. Compressed air thrusters that can make a car hover in place will simple be too big and cumbersome to be practical. Also, hovering in place is completely useless.

 I believe the car will use thrusters to add additional forward and down force during acceleration from 0, additional side and up/down force during cornering and additional back and down force during hard braking.  The short flights are at high speeds. Modern super cars use most of the car's surface to provide downforce at extremely high speeds, or else the cars will fly, crash and burn.

 If the surface of the body is designed to provide downforce, lift and control then the thrusts will be used to provide additional control. The car can keep accelerating even at very high speeds take small hops as required by the aerodynamics. Unlike modern supercars, it will flow with the wind instead fighting the wind with downforce.


Difficult? Most certainly. Impossible, not at all.


Quote
A rough road ahead in every field he's invested in. Whatever happened to those much heralded solar roof tiles?

A rough road ahead sure, but that's what happens to leaders. What they do is new and difficult. A rough road ahead is welcomed.
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zizek

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1089 on: January 19, 2019, 02:53:39 AM »
The world is dying and youre talking about personal hover cars.

TerryM

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1090 on: January 19, 2019, 12:34:48 PM »
On Friday Tesla announced that the model 3 is now certified for sale in Europe.


This is a big deal.
Terry

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1091 on: January 19, 2019, 01:17:27 PM »
Quote
The world is dying and youre talking about personal hover cars.


Again. Shiny objects. At the end of the day humans are a species of animal attracted to shiny objects. That is as true in Cuba as it is in Wall Street. It is as true now as it has always been across all cultures.

By making an electric car than can beat the top ICE cars across most metrics, a very shiny object is created that human specimens will be attracted to. Most of them won't be able to afford it but they will settle for something close to it. This is bait. If they take the bait (they like the car) they might chose for their next vehicle an EV.

You can force people to change or you can convince them to change due to better technology. In the war against climate change we will have to use both methods.
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TerryM

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1092 on: January 20, 2019, 08:21:33 PM »
The Canadian Space Agency's launch of it's 3 satellite Radarsat Constellation Mission (RCM) has been delayed indefinitely after the failure of a Space X booster's landing on December 5th.

In 2013 Space X was contracted to launch the satellites in July of 2018, but the explosion of a Falcon 9 in June of 2015 pushed dates forward. Subsequently MacDonald, Dettwiler & Associates (MDA), since absorbed by the American firm Maxar Technologies (Maxar), found that one of the three satellites required repair which also effected the proposed launch date.

Maxar announced on Dec 7th that it's WorldView 4 satellite, one we're probably all well aware of for it's Arctic coverage had failed. The stock plunged and a class action law suit was announced the following day.

2013 - RCM contracts with SpaceX for July 17 2018 launch
2015 - June explosion of Falcon 9 disrupts schedule going forward.
2017 - One satellite requires repair in Germany

06/??/2018 - Musk fires 7 senior managers @ SpaceX
11/??/2018 - Launch date of RCM bumped to 02/17/2019
12/05/2018 - Booster landing fails.
12/07/2016 - WorldView4 fails and Marax stock crashes
12/18/2018 - SpaceX announces $500m fundraiser that produces but $273M
01/08/2019 - Musk tweets about "Hovering Roadster"
01/11/2019 - SpaceX announced the layoff of 10% of their workforce.
01/15/2019 - Launch postponed indefinitely, $1B satellites gather more dust.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/spacex-musk-radarsat-constellation-mission-falcon9-1.4977512?cmp=newsletter-news-digests-canada-and-world-morning

Those of us following the flow of Arctic Sea Ice will have one eye closed because SpaceX couldn't meet their commitments. Musk time again? This isn't new and wondrous stuff, we've been putting things in orbit reliably since before Elon was born.

The company that once designed and built the Canadian "Space Arm", may go under because SpaceX couldn't deliver their satellites.
Terry


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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1093 on: January 20, 2019, 09:58:46 PM »
Terry, Seems some of the responsibility is shared . I watched a couple weeks ago the last space-x launch from my porch. It delivered several iridium satilites into successful orbits and safely landed the first stage back onto it's landing platform in the Pacific. It is the first time I have been able to see  the first stage ignite it's retro rockets shortly after it separated from the second stage. It is amazing it ever works , I would imagine it's success improves over time. If it's any consolation I am sure trump would scotch all the Vandenburg launches if he thought it would hurt Calif. enough.

https://www.spacex.com/webcast
 

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1094 on: January 20, 2019, 10:18:06 PM »
Quote
Those of us following the flow of Arctic Sea Ice will have one eye closed because SpaceX couldn't meet their commitments. Musk time again? This isn't new and wondrous stuff, we've been putting things in orbit reliably since before Elon was born.

The company that once designed and built the Canadian "Space Arm", may go under because SpaceX couldn't deliver their satellites.
Not sure what this is doing in a Tesla thread, but seriously Terry, are you claiming there were never any launch postponements in the past, before SpaceX? Did you notice part of the delay was due to a fault discovered in one of the satellites? Are you aware SpaceX launches are much cheaper thanks to re-usability? Did you check what SpaceX are actually committing to, as part of their launch agreements? Did you notice the statement that another date will be set for launch, at no additional cost?
Or is it just another opportunity to blame Musk for the world's woes?

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1095 on: January 21, 2019, 01:48:37 AM »
Tesla Announces Date for Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2018 Financial Results and Webcast
Wednesday, January 30th, 2019
Time: 2:30pm Pacific Time / 5:30pm Eastern Time
Shareholder Letter (when published, on Jan 30):  http://ir.tesla.com
Webcast:  http://ir.tesla.com (live and replay)
http://ir.tesla.com/news-releases/news-release-details/tesla-announces-date-fourth-quarter-and-full-year-2018-financial


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IRS Form 8936 (the #EV Tax Credit for US buyers) is available in draft form and can be previewed though it should not be used for filing purposes. There is specific language referencing #Tesla and phaseout on the form! …
https://twitter.com/teslatunity/status/1086744941202731008
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1096 on: January 21, 2019, 01:56:10 AM »
1/18/19, 4:43 PM
Model 3 has been approved in Europe! Homologation secured.
https://twitter.com/model3vins/status/1086378620157718528
Additional background on European type-approval for those interested:
English information about typeapprovals, digital CoC's and vehicle safety | RDW
https://www.rdw.nl/zakelijk/branches/fabrikanten-en-importeurs/english-information-about-typeapprovals

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GLOVIS Captain, carrying the first shipment of Model 3 for Europe, is due in Zeebrugge, Belgium, on February 2.


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“If you are going to call Tesla a small, insignificant, niche automaker that might not survive, you have to do the same for Jaguar and Porsche.”
Tesla Crushes Porsche & Jaguar Globally — 4th Quarter Sales Report
https://cleantechnica.com/2019/01/19/tesla-crushes-porsche-jaguar-globally-4th-quarter-sales-report/
Bar chart below.

$TSLA Model 3 took 60% of US market for cars selling at $55k and above.
Was there any other single car model taking 60% of the market share at any price and any time in the automotive history?
Lowering starting price to $35k expands [Total Addressable Market] 5-fold
https://twitter.com/vgrinshpun/status/1086880109137678336


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Darion G (@RaptorJesuss) 1/19/19, 2:06 AM
@elonmusk Hey Elon my mom got into a car accident that totaled her car tonight, she’s okay, but I suggested she get a Tesla next because of how long her commute is and how safe they are. She said “I’ll get one if Elon tells me to” can you please tell her to, my convincing failed?
https://twitter.com/raptorjesuss/status/1086520333065043969
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Elon Musk (@elonmusk) 1/19/19, 2:09 AM
@RaptorJesuss Tesla is the safest car according to US govt testing
< I'm so glad your Mom is ok!!
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Darion G: Yeah she’s good I called her as soon as I got the tweet and she said “well looks like I have to now” ;D
« Last Edit: January 21, 2019, 02:02:08 AM by Sigmetnow »
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1097 on: January 21, 2019, 01:59:23 AM »
Tesla is giving a Model 3 away to a hacker who can crack it
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Tesla has been working closely with white hat hackers for years in order to make its vehicle software safer and now it’s taking an unprecedented step: it’s going to be giving away a Model 3 to a hacker who can crack the vehicle.

Over the past 4 years, Tesla has been running a bug bounty program and according to sources familiar with the effort, the company has given away hundreds of thousands in rewards to hackers who exposed vulnerabilities in its systems.

Tesla is going to be the first automaker to participate in a Pwn2Own hacking event, which is run by Trend Micro’s Zero Day Initiative (ZDI).

At the event in Vancouver this March, the company will give away a Model 3 to the winner of the hacking contest.

David Lau, Vice President of Vehicle Software at Tesla, commented on the announcement:
“We develop our cars with the highest standards of safety in every respect, and our work with the security research community is invaluable to us. Since launching our bug bounty program in 2014 – the first to include a connected consumer vehicle – we have continuously increased our investments into partnerships with security researchers to ensure that all Tesla owners constantly benefit from the brightest minds in the community. We look forward to learning about, and rewarding, great work in Pwn2Own so that we can continue to improve our products and our approach to designing inherently secure systems.”

The Model 3 will be the target of hackers at the event along with several other products like Oracle VirtualBox, Microsoft Office 365, Google Chrome and more.
https://electrek.co/2019/01/14/tesla-model-3-giveaway-hacker/
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

zizek

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1098 on: January 21, 2019, 02:44:22 AM »
Not sure what this is doing in a Tesla thread, but seriously Terry, are you claiming there were never any launch postponements in the past, before SpaceX? Did you notice part of the delay was due to a fault discovered in one of the satellites? Are you aware SpaceX launches are much cheaper thanks to re-usability? Did you check what SpaceX are actually committing to, as part of their launch agreements? Did you notice the statement that another date will be set for launch, at no additional cost?
Or is it just another opportunity to blame Musk for the world's woes?

Oren, do you know the actual costs of a SpaceX launch? or just the price SpaceX is charging? And what about reusability makes launch vehicles cheaper? Cause the Shuttles sure weren't cheaper than rockets and they killed a bunch of people too.

But yeah, lets keep defending the privatization of public institutions. How many decades worth of case studies do you need to finally convince you that selling off capital intensive public companies is a bad idea. From medical, to social security, to energy, to utilities, to transportation -- it always makes the service worse for the average person, while pouring more money into the pockets of the rich

Do me a favour and read the massive amounts of literature that describes problems of privatization instead of being a lackey for neoliberalism. Why the hell do we keep on having this argument over and over again. Why the hell are so many people on this forum awful at reading anything other than climatology.
The people on this forum that are defending neoliberalism and their agents like Musk need to do a better job of presenting evidence.
Because when I read anything that describes the problems that caused climate change, I'm always reading about capitalism, neoliberalism, and how our society has been constructed to suck the blood out of every human and living thing on this planet. It's so weird I haven't found any papers or books that go along the lines of:
"Selling off Public Assets to the Ultra Wealthy for the Fraction of the Original Cost is Actually a Great Idea"
So the onus is on you to tell us why This Time is Different.  Because right now, all someone like Musk needs to do is to stamp "GREEN" on their product, and you can get away with anything.


I can't wait till you start defending the privatization of water because Musk found a way we can drink with our eyeballs and he will promise nobody will go thirsty by the year 2021 and all he needs is your money give him your money already jesus christ why are you waiting why don't you buy his product why are you doubting him this is amazing everything is amazing no one is thirsty now musk is a genius you just don't understand the eyeball is permeable membrane give him your money and water can be vaporized if you just give him your money and the vapor goes into your eyeball he is so smart he is on another plane of existence just listen to him and give him your money and all other ideas are bad and any criticism of him is bad and the people who criticize him are bad and are stopping progress so just give him your god damn money already .

zizek

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1099 on: January 21, 2019, 02:48:47 AM »
We sent a person to the moon in the year 1969. But I guess everyone forgot how all that stuff works so we have to give Musk billions of dollars to figure it out again.