Can a big carmaker swallow Tesla by out-competing them? Theoretically sure, but it's not as easy as it sounds. There's a huge investment involved
No kidding. Initial investments from VAG (€34bn) and Daimler (Mercedes) (€10bn), for an "initial" run of limited numbers of EV ranges is indicative of just how much the incumbents are going to have to spend in order to catch up.
Think about it from a business perspective. Tesla is a vehicle manufacturer and an energy company which produces the products to generate the energy to run their vehicles, sells power from a growing charging network (fuelling) and has multiple ranges in reasonable volume production with semi's on the chart. Other companies are having to run flat out to catch up, offers in China are cheap and not very cheerful with incredibly low distance options and not a lot of longevity.
Even more important is that, now Tesla is over the profitability hump (most likely), all new vehicles and product lines they produce are going to be pushing money into the company. Whereas the incumbents are likely to be looking at EV's being a cost for at least the next 5-10 years.
From a hard headed business perspective Tesla is not only in the lead, it is way out ahead. It is for Tesla to lose.
The saddest thing about all of this is that the new members on the board, the stifling of competition and the rowing back on initiatives which ramp up production are far more likely to bring on the demise of Tesla than the current incumbents. Tesla should have been pushing for 7k Model 3's per week by now, pushing for the $35k model to come out within the next quarter and going forward all the time.
It is clear that the Musk led mad dash for volume and innovation is over, Tesla may not make 10k cars per week by end 2019 and that is going to be a really bad thing for Tesla.
In the end, I predict, the demise of Tesla will not come from the machinations of a mad genius, it will come from the stultifying chase for profit to be given to investors, rather than into the advancement of the Tesla brand and offerings.
Time will tell. But the regulator has already had an impact. Tesla is no longer on fire. It is becoming another boring car company more than the death defying market leader it has been modelling to date.