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Rob Dekker

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1100 on: January 21, 2019, 09:20:21 AM »
We sent a person to the moon in the year 1969. But I guess everyone forgot how all that stuff works so we have to give Musk billions of dollars to figure it out again.

Not sure what this is doing in a Tesla thread, but seriously, Zizek, why are you suggesting that "we" have to pay Musk billions of dollars for SpaceX ? "We" haven't. He does this all with private investments.

But considering SpaceX's success in driving down launch costs, maybe "we" should have invested.
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Neven

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1101 on: January 21, 2019, 10:01:56 AM »
Let's get back on topic, which is 'Tesla glory/failure'.

It seems that it's really important that Tesla starts producing those 'cheap' Model 3s asap, not only because of the company's bottom line, but also because this has always been the promise (first we build luxury cars to get attention and attract investments, then we produce for the masses). I wouldn't mind if they skip the Model Y, new Roadster and pick-up truck, and start making some minimalist cars that are super-efficient and last a long time.
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TerryM

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1102 on: January 21, 2019, 11:27:40 AM »
Let's get back on topic, which is 'Tesla glory/failure'.

It seems that it's really important that Tesla starts producing those 'cheap' Model 3s asap, not only because of the company's bottom line, but also because this has always been the promise (first we build luxury cars to get attention and attract investments, then we produce for the masses). I wouldn't mind if they skip the Model Y, new Roadster and pick-up truck, and start making some minimalist cars that are super-efficient and last a long time.
When a 150 pound person needs to haul around a 1200 pound battery when she goes to get her nails done you've ruled out minimalism and efficiency.
3500 pounds of machinery to transport a 150 pound individual might seem ridiculous, but with self driving being as always "just around the corner", we'll soon be able to transport absolutely nothing in our 3,500# behemoth as it careens through the streets to do our bidding.


In what dystopian future will we see pedestrian mothers shielding their young from the robotic monsters let loose on "public"? streets. Some whisking the 1%, hidden from view behind occluded windows, as they're swept from meeting place to eating place then back to the office, then home. Others racing by unoccupied, clogging transportation routes as they rush to do their masters bidding.


Walking on so called "public" roadways has been unsafe and illegal for some time. "Restricted" highways are just that, restricted to those that can afford to purchase, license, fuel and maintain vehicles that most of the worlds inhabitants will never afford.
If it's determined that self driving cars are not compatible with pedestrian traffic, when will the walls go up to protect the vehicles from the populace?


When GM, Firestone and Standard Oil purchased the bus lines and streetcars - then shut them down, it was a frontal attack on the environment. To respond by developing a generation of "Green" private vehicles is a sick joke.
I don't think we've enough time for jokes.
Terry

Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1103 on: January 21, 2019, 03:22:50 PM »
Dear Terry,
Practically every launch encounters delays!  Space is hard; they trying to do things that have never been done before; there are so many pieces of hardware, technical support groups, and governmental bodies to deal with; and you only get one chance to do it right!

Was going to post a list… but just see the link below for a few of the delays we know about that are on the upcoming launch manifest.  SpaceX appears so often because, due to their success and innovation, so many companies have come to them to launch their satellites that SpaceX has surpassed Russia, and NASA, and now launches more rockets than anyone else!   Also, they are very transparent in their attempts.

https://spaceflightnow.com/launch-schedule/




———————————————-———————————————-———————————————-

Let's get back on topic, which is 'Tesla glory/failure'.

It seems that it's really important that Tesla starts producing those 'cheap' Model 3s asap, not only because of the company's bottom line, but also because this has always been the promise (first we build luxury cars to get attention and attract investments, then we produce for the masses). I wouldn't mind if they skip the Model Y, new Roadster and pick-up truck, and start making some minimalist cars that are super-efficient and last a long time.

- For the immediate future, people are going to drive cars, SUVs, and pickup trucks. 
- Smart electric vehicles offer lower emissions and lower rates of death, injury and disease (e.g., from neighborhood pollution) than the ICE alternatives.
- Tesla’s success has forced other automakers to introduce EVs much sooner than they otherwise would have, and has encouraged many new vehicle startups to make other EVs for people who can’t afford (or, puzzlingly, don’t want ;) ) a Tesla.

——
Clean Technica has updated their “Nasty Tesla Charts.”

30 Nasty Tesla Charts
https://cleantechnica.com/2019/01/20/30-nasty-tesla-charts/
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

zizek

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1104 on: January 21, 2019, 03:43:26 PM »
We sent a person to the moon in the year 1969. But I guess everyone forgot how all that stuff works so we have to give Musk billions of dollars to figure it out again.

Not sure what this is doing in a Tesla thread, but seriously, Zizek, why are you suggesting that "we" have to pay Musk billions of dollars for SpaceX ? "We" haven't. He does this all with private investments.

But considering SpaceX's success in driving down launch costs, maybe "we" should have invested.

Sorry for continuing the off topic discussion, but I want to get the record straight since Rob likes to play fast and loose with facts.
SpaceX benefits both from generous government tax benefits and grants, as well as contracts from the biggest taxpayer grift known to mankind: the Military Industrial Complex.
These facts have been posted countless times on this forum. But I guess we can continue to ignore anything that doesn't nicely fit into the neoliberal agenda.
Not only that, SpaceX is built on the the physical and intellectual infrastructure from the decades of work by NASA and Roscosmos. Neoliberals like to be very selective with their timelines and resources when it comes to boasting about their own successes. Apparently Elon Musk has built the car and rocket all by himself with no help from anyone else, and those gosh darn government scientists sure didn't do anything about it.

And to get back to Tesla, Sigmetnow still thinks that the tax credit for EVs is not a subsidy for Tesla. And she is not alone with that sentiment. Just take a moment and think about that. Corporate propaganda is so effective that it can redefine the simplest and most obvious subsidy. The government is literally giving people cash to buy a specific product from corporations, and people still don't think that is a subsidy.

I will end on this point.
How are we supposed to price the negative externalties from polluters when we can't even decide if stuffing cash into a corporation's mouth is consider a public subsidy or not.
The true costs of resource extraction, endless consumption, and pollution are being dumped onto future generations as a form of a present-day subsidy. Somebody has to pay for climate change and the toxic wasteland left behind by greedy corporations. Emitting CO2 into the atmosphere without having to pay for it's consequences is a subsidy. And to understand the true economic impact of pollution is as complex as climate change itself. But how are we supposed to cross this hurdle of pricing negative extsernalties when we constantly fall victim for corporatist propaganda that decides for us what is a subsidy and what isn't. 

Neven

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1105 on: January 21, 2019, 03:50:50 PM »
Come on, on-topic! There are plenty of threads for this kind of stuff.
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Rob Dekker

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1106 on: January 22, 2019, 10:07:23 AM »
I wouldn't mind if they skip the Model Y, new Roadster and pick-up truck, and start making some minimalist cars that are super-efficient and last a long time.

Model Y, new Roadster, the new pickup as well as existing Model 3 and Model X and Model S are ALL super-efficient electric vehicles and they last a long time.

About your advice to Tesla to build a "minimalist" electric vehicle ; why not let another company try that failed concept. People don't want a golf cart. They want a vehicle that is BETTER than other vehicles in its class, on ALL aspects (performance, safely, durability, environmentally friendly etc etc). Tesla did that :

Tesla Model 3 is already the best selling car in the US (in dollars) and 5th best selling car by volume, at par with the Toyota Corolla.

I think Tesla found their mojo, and you should commend them for it, not push them to do something that has been proven to fail every time some company tried it.
« Last Edit: January 22, 2019, 10:20:27 AM by Rob Dekker »
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NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1107 on: January 22, 2019, 12:48:52 PM »
Quote
"This quarter will hopefully allow us, with great difficulty, effort and some luck, to target a tiny profit," he wrote.

doesn't sound good.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46919489

This sounds like Tesla has already decided that they will not make the convertible debt threshold. This is what I was talking about with Tesla being killed by normal business practise.

Before the SEC issue, Musk would have used all resources to drive Tesla to 7,000 model 3 cars per week.  The approach has changed and Tesla will shrink to meet the debt challenge even if it means they produce less cars than anticipated in Q1.

Tesla has not survived so far by playing these games, it has survived by going at Mach2 whilst on fire to ignite investor confidence and customer loyalty. The new chairman and new directors may hope the China Gigafactory will make the difference, but Tesla as a betrayer of the trust of the people who supported it, sitting in the slow lane, is not a long term prospect.
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oren

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1108 on: January 22, 2019, 12:58:21 PM »
I think Tesla has slowed down this time not on its own volition, but by reduced demand for high-priced versions. It could accelerate by announcing the immediate availability of a $35k base version, but it would do so at a loss. With all the shorts hovering around, and no one handing Tesla free money to spend, it would be a very short-term Mach2 flight. I don't think they had much choice.
Hopefully, they will find a way to make that base version profitably in a few months, and will accelerate back to normal.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1109 on: January 22, 2019, 05:24:47 PM »
Superchargers have been installed inside the gates at Pier 80 in San Francisco, where Tesla sends cars to be loaded onto “Roll On, Roll Off” vehicle carrier ships for overseas transport.  The GLOVIS ships have a capacity of 6,000 cars or more:

GLOVIS Captain is in the mid-Atlantic, due in Zeebrugge Belgium ~Feb 2 with a boatload of Model 3.
GLOVIS Cosmos is approaching the Panama Canal, reportedly headed to Norway with a larger load of Teslas than GLOVIS Captain.
GLOVIS Symphony (a larger ship) is currently docked in San Francisco. Destination as yet unknown.  (Possibly China?)
Grand Aurora is due in SF on 23 Jan.

https://twitter.com/macgyver_be/status/1086686533279797248

https://twitter.com/macgyver_be/status/1087626642816753664

Tesla's Model 3 Is Coming to Europe
https://www.fool.com/investing/2019/01/21/teslas-model-3-is-coming-to-europe.aspx



Edit:  And yes, they are still making thousands of Model 3 for North America:
Quote
1/22/19, 11:37 AM
#Tesla registered 13,974 new #Model3 VINs. ~38% estimated to be dual motor. ~34% estimated to be International. Highest VIN is 265119. ...
https://twitter.com/model3vins/status/1087751027296657409
« Last Edit: January 22, 2019, 06:05:15 PM by Sigmetnow »
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Bruce Steele

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1110 on: January 23, 2019, 05:14:02 AM »
Lurk, I haven't ever bought or owned a new car. I will never buy a new Tesla either but I can't say I wouldn't buy one used . I do have solar and I am in the process of buying a couple Tesla power walls.
If I did buy a used tesla I would have enough range to cover most of my driving needs and charge at home during off peak hours .  I am also into making my own biodiesel and farming without fossil fuels. Solar pays for water pumping and freezer costs and homemade bio fuels the tractor for plowing etc. I can feed my family without fossil fuel although I go to the store when I feel like it unless I'm trying to make a point.
So if some of the component parts aren't exactly minimal ( like a used Tesla ) what's the harm in trying to get off the grid , off fossil fuel ? Like I said it ain't perfect but putting the whole package together has to have some kind of appeal ?  Can't we improve the component parts as we gain technological skill?  As much as solar looks like a no brainier with peak electric rates up to 42 cents a kWh here in parts of Calif. it wasn't always the obvious choice for reduced electric costs. A power wall also doesn't currently pencil out but I am betting electric rates will continue to climb. The power wall also affords the ability to monitor solar , storage and use , real time. 
 Goal-
 Get off fossil fuels
  a. Off the shelf component parts
  b. Verified ( or verifiable ) results
  c. Energy documentation for imbedded costs
  d. Energy production of completed system ( food calories produced )documented
 Goal -
   Try to make d. greater than c. 
    Produced calories greater than imbedded energy costs
I have a long way to go but I think sometimes it's important to agree to a goal .
If I bought a used tesla I can't imagine ever getting the food calories produced on my farm to overtake the energy costs of infrastructure .  The hard truth is even the most minimal use of steel, or aluminum , or battery production will quickly dwarf the food calories a farmer can produce without fossil fuels.
JimD helped me run some of the numbers . You'd enjoy JimD , you might reread some of his old posts.
  To sum, we won't know unless we run the numbers . It would be good to agree on what we were trying to accomplish.
 

Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1111 on: January 23, 2019, 08:14:05 PM »
German subsidies, European loans:
Quote
As expected, the Tesla Model 3 has been added to the list of electric vehicles eligible for a €4000 subsidy in Germany. twitter.com/BAFA_Bund/stat…
https://twitter.com/macgyver_be/status/1087733014942150656
- This is important because people were holding back on ordering until they were sure it was eligible for that subsidy.

"Financial leases"/Car loans are now available in Europe on the Model 3, through Tesla, starting today.
https://twitter.com/macgyver_be/status/1088062532701642754
Text image in French at the link.
—-
Vincent (@vincent13031925) 1/22/19, 11:36 AM
Final thought of my current China trip: Spoke with many ppl in different cities, almost all of them are excited with Tesla GF3 development. Many ppl wanna have a Tesla in the near future, especially the Model 3. Local MSM are very positive about Tesla future.
https://twitter.com/vincent13031925/status/1087750758152339456

—-
And especially for Lurk ;) :
GLOVIS Symphony has departed San Francisco — headed for China!  Appears to be routed for a port near Hong Kong, with an ETA of 10 February. 
Now that GLOVIS Symphony has cleared the port, Grand Aurora has left her holding pattern out at sea and is headed in to dock in San Francisco, due in a few hours.
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GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1112 on: January 24, 2019, 11:02:23 PM »
I'm trying not to post on this side of the forum these days, but I just can't help myself as it seems like every one missed a crucial and poignant development: Elon made a big deal about his newest rocket of which SpaceX had built a prototype. I'm far from an aerospace engineer but the design struck me as rather silly and it seems likely it is supposed to be reminiscent of a rocket ship from the 1950 movie Destination Moon.

Anyways, this thing was supposed to be about to launch, fly a few miles into the air, and then land. This would provide some test data and then they could refine the design and have the thing ready to fly to "easy-to-live-on" Mars. But it looks like paper-mache wrapped in foil...a total joke. And...

IT BLEW APART IN 50mph WINDS!!! AND CRUSHED ITSELF!!!

Elon is a total fraud and this becomes more obvious all the time. Even the mainstream media is starting to catch on. The model 3 production has plateau. The model S and X production has decreased. The EV incentives are going away. There is no capital for projects like Giga3, Model Y, Semi, Roadster. Giga1 and Giga2 aren't anywhere near capacity. Solar Roof was total fraud to save face and justify the bailout of Solar City. They keep having to lay off workers (same with SpaceX).

$11Billion in Debt. Accounts payable larger than cash and equivalents. No profits outside of one time gimmicks. No chance Tesla doesn't have to restructure.... Same with SpaceX. The boring company is a total joke, but it is really just a unwanted adopted child of SpaceX. And finally, Neuralink was supposed to have come out with technology which basically created super genius cyborgs, but of course it has not.

Musk never has and never will run a company that turns an annual profit. The king of capital destruction.  Please don't feel like you have to support this con man because he claims to be trying to save the world. He couldn't care less...but he wanted to be famous and figured that this was the way to do it. And don't feel bad that you were fooled by him. Divorce the lies and marry reality.

Anecdote: I just heard that Tesla fired the entire staff of the "Solar City" office employees near where I live. (Not a small or cloudy city. The opposite)

One last thing. It is important to remember that Musk has previously stated that the CEO of a company that is about to fail should still make rosy projections, because otherwise failure is guaranteed. He will be talking up the future success of Tesla 15 minutes before it is announced they are filing for bankruptcy.
big time oops

Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1113 on: January 25, 2019, 01:36:07 PM »
Tesla’s US Q1 Deliveries are Surprisingly High (so far)
Quote
Alpha Hat’s data for the first couple weeks of the year shows that Tesla continues to deliver a surprisingly healthy number of vehicles in the US. As of 1/13, we believe that Tesla has delivered approximately 6,050 vehicles in the US, with ~5,000 being Model 3s. This compares to 6,800 vehicles (5,500 Model 3s) in the first 13 days of the previous quarter according to our data. While Q1 trails Q4 by 10–11% so far, we are surprised that Tesla has been able to deliver even this level of volume given the big delivery push prior to the new year and the expiry of the full federal EV tax credit.
https://blog.alphahat.com/teslas-us-q1-deliveries-are-surprisingly-high-so-far-e87cd1df54f8



FWIW, the Bloomberg Model 3 Production Tracker is also above 5,000 a week.
Static Image:  https://twitter.com/butters2006/status/1088587749161136129

The tracker:  https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-tesla-tracker/



“Some of our readers were waiting for the updated LOL chart and here it is. The Tesla Model 3 is going up like there is no tomorrow. Probably we are just weeks from seeing Model 3 on top of the cumulative sales chart, despite it being the youngest model in Top 10.”
https://insideevs.com/us-plug-in-electric-car-sales-charted-december-2018/amp/
Chart below. :)
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TerryM

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1114 on: January 25, 2019, 02:08:16 PM »
Tesla has 5 working days to raise TSLA to ~$360, or it needs to pay out $920M in cash. Recently Musk claimed he'd pay 1/2, with the balance in stock. That no longer appears possible.


This won't break Tesla, but it's close to a $Billion they won't have going forward that they were counting on.
Selling more cars while making less profit wasn't the plan. Cutbacks and layoffs don't bode well for the future.


I could add Spacex and SolarCity's problems, but that would probably drift off topic.
Terry


oren

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1115 on: January 25, 2019, 02:15:55 PM »
I strongly doubt Tesla was recently counting on the bond to be converted to stock. The chance of it staying above $360 was very low. IIRC The company had about $3B in cash at the end of the Q3, and the announced plan was to pay down debt and reduce leverage. So I don't see the bond payment as a meaningful event.
The big question going forward is the level of demand for the Model 3, at least until other models come along.

crandles

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1116 on: January 25, 2019, 02:37:13 PM »
Tesla has 5 working days to raise TSLA to ~$360, or it needs to pay out $920M in cash. Recently Musk claimed he'd pay 1/2, with the balance in stock. That no longer appears possible.

This won't break Tesla, but it's close to a $Billion they won't have going forward that they were counting on.

Why do you say that?

Quote
Tesla, Inc.
September 30
2018
(In thousands)
Cash and cash equivalents $ 2,967,504

Aim profitable and cash flow positive every quarter.

So they had more than 3 times the $920M at the end of September, and don't seem to be counting on the other $2billion.

Yes, layoffs and rocket collapses are embarrassing but saying 'counting on' when the evidence is otherwise just shows up your biases.

Oh, Oren beat me to it.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1117 on: January 25, 2019, 04:17:11 PM »
< So... Looks like Starship had an accident last night? Will it be a big delay to build a new top half?
Quote
Elon Musk (@elonmusk) 1/23/19, 9:57 AM
 I just heard. 50 mph winds broke the mooring blocks late last night & fairing was blown over. Will take a few weeks to repair.
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1088088320767217664

Meanwhile, at Kennedy Space Center yesterday, a successful static fire of the Falcon 9 rocket — with Dragon confidently attached on top! — that will launch that first (uncrewed) Crew Dragon to the International Space Station, in preparation for returning human space flight to the US:
Quote
SpaceX (@SpaceX) 1/24/19, 10:03 PM
Static fire test complete—targeting February launch from historic Launch Complex 39A for Crew Dragon’s first demonstration flight!
https://twitter.com/spacex/status/1088633393149968384
Video of the static fire at the link.


———
Back to the stuff that should be in this thread:

“The short bars for other models raises the question of what the automotive industry will do to compete with Tesla.”
https://insideevs.com/us-plug-in-electric-car-sales-charted-december-2018/amp/
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Archimid

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1118 on: January 25, 2019, 05:49:05 PM »
“There may be occasional quarters where we pay back a big loan or something,” Musk told financial analysts on the call. “Absent that, we’ll be cash-flow positive.”

https://www.sfchronicle.com/business/article/Tesla-s-still-losing-money-but-expects-13124142.php


Tesla is expecting to make this payment. If they hit the target is just gravy.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1119 on: January 25, 2019, 07:05:45 PM »
I strongly doubt Tesla was recently counting on the bond to be converted to stock. The chance of it staying above $360 was very low.


...saying 'counting on' when the evidence is otherwise just shows up your biases.


Damn...I'm getting sucked into this nonsense again. It is not a bias that caused Terry to claim Tesla was counting on paying off the debt with some stock...IT WAS TESLA about 6 weeks ago. He just has some idea of what he is talking about (unlike the Tesla bulls!).

https://www.thestreet.com/technology/tesla-reportedly-offers-to-repay-debt-in-half-cash-half-stock-14803618

big time oops

GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1120 on: January 25, 2019, 07:11:36 PM »
“There may be occasional quarters where we pay back a big loan or something,” Musk told financial analysts on the call. “Absent that, we’ll be cash-flow positive.”

Does it not bother you AT ALL that Musk has been saying that since 2011. How can you be so blind to just totally ignore this...?

Tesla has even admitted already that it will take a lot of lucky and some shenanigans to be profitable in Q4. As for Q1, there really is no hope: Model 3 prices dropping with sales up slightly at most, and less Model S/X sales. The demand isn't there going forward unless they drop the prices to where they don't make any money. The business model is 200% nonviable...like every other Musk idea.
big time oops

GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1121 on: January 25, 2019, 07:38:38 PM »
The big question going forward is the level of demand for the Model 3, at least until other models come along.

I agree that there are big question marks about the demand for the Model 3...but even if the demand did exist, would Tesla be able to produce more?!? They keep laying off workers, and falling further behind on service and parts. How could they ratchet up production with less people. And if they could, wouldn't they have done so already. They are producing the same number of vehicles that they were 6 months, and now have less employees.

As for the other models...the models S/X don't have teams in place to update the vehicles and they are quickly becoming obsolete as the competition arrives. And there is no viable Semi, Model Y, Roadster (cough, magic roof tile, cough). So the cars don't exist, and there is no where to build them. And there are no employees to build them. And there is no money to obtain the factory, equipment, labor...

Obviously they will have to raise capital in order to make any future progress. But that has been clear for over a year. And yet they have no raised. Every day we get later in the cycle and raising will become more and more difficult. Thus, it seems likely that Tesla would have to disclose information they are unwilling to disclose in order to raise. So, it is a restructuring or some form of a bail out.

Can anyone explain where this argument breaks down? Can anyone explain where the profitability is going to come from? Can anyone explain why Tesla hasn't raised capital yet if they aren't hiding something? Can anyone explain how without positive cash flow or capital injections Tesla is going to add new products that require capital? High-school business level, cut and dry, obviously bankrupt company...valued at $50 billion. hahahahaha
big time oops

TerryM

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1122 on: January 25, 2019, 08:12:32 PM »
I strongly doubt Tesla was recently counting on the bond to be converted to stock. The chance of it staying above $360 was very low. IIRC The company had about $3B in cash at the end of the Q3, and the announced plan was to pay down debt and reduce leverage. So I don't see the bond payment as a meaningful event.
The big question going forward is the level of demand for the Model 3, at least until other models come along.


"Musk said on October 24 that Tesla plans to pay off its debt and not refinance. Earlier this month, the company told holders of $920m of its convertible debt due in March that it would settle the conversion with a 50-50 split between cash and stock."

[/size]https://www.fin24.com/Companies/ICT/whats-tesla-investors-biggest-2019-wish-a-low-key-elon-musk-20181220



I agree that Tesla's success in manufacturing and marketing model 3 profitably will determine their future, especially as they're now cutting back on producing the more profitable Model S and Model X vehicles.


As Crandel notes, I have developed a jaundiced eye WRT Elon Musk and his various ventures. I think the pro Elon side is well represented here and don't feel that a more balanced amalgam is necessarily a bad thing. :)


[/size]https://www.forbes.com/sites/jimcollins/2019/01/18/teslas-profit-warning-is-further-evidence-that-elon-musks-math-does-not-add-up/#23d1ebd05d65
Terry

oren

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1123 on: January 25, 2019, 09:49:38 PM »
"Musk said on October 24 that Tesla plans to pay off its debt and not refinance. Earlier this month, the company told holders of $920m of its convertible debt due in March that it would settle the conversion with a 50-50 split between cash and stock."
That notice came after the stock touched $360. Had it stayed there, Tesla intended to still repay half the bond in cash. Now that it's gone down, they will pay the whole in cash of course.
The thing is, whenever the stock reaches near $360 the bondholders can hedge their positions by selling short the stock, or selling call options at the $360 strike price, thus effectively pressuring the stock back down. When the stock goes down, they cover their hedges and remain with the bond again. A very profitable investment given the huge volatility in the stock price, and they still get paid the whole bond value at the end, barring the very low risk of the company going belly up by March.

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1124 on: January 25, 2019, 09:55:26 PM »
As Crandel notes, I have developed a jaundiced eye WRT Elon Musk and his various ventures. I think the pro Elon side is well represented here and don't feel that a more balanced amalgam is necessarily a bad thing. :)

I agree, but remember, the occasional ranting (not referring to you, Terry) must be offset with articles, op-eds, videos, whatever, that relate to Tesla glory/failure.
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1125 on: January 25, 2019, 10:04:04 PM »
Can anyone explain where the profitability is going to come from?


They are profitable by selling Model 3

Quote
Can anyone explain why Tesla hasn't raised capital yet if they aren't hiding something?

Occams razor... they haven't raised capital because they didn't have the need. One day they might raise again or they might not. We will see. I hope they do and start building simultaneous Gigafactories.

Quote
Can anyone explain how without positive cash flow or capital injections Tesla is going to add new products that require capital?

1. They are cash flow positive
2. Their R&D budget is rolled up with SG&A. They will keep growing because growth is baked into the Tesla budget.
3. Also local capital like Giga 3 is doing the heavy lifting.
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TerryM

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1126 on: January 26, 2019, 01:39:54 AM »

1. They are cash flow positive
2. Their R&D budget is rolled up with SG&A. They will keep growing because growth is baked into the Tesla budget.
3. Also local capital like Giga 3 is doing the heavy lifting.


I'm not trying to be argumentative, but why would the location of the capital have any bearing at all on Tesla's debt?



Has anyone been following the ongoing saga of Gigafactory II in Buffalo?
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1127 on: January 26, 2019, 02:47:26 AM »
They are profitable by selling Model 3

This is like kindergarden talk. ("Squares are best cuz they have sides.")

They sold the most profitable versions first.  The Q1 demand for the high margin model 3s is now a tiny fraction of what it was Q3. The high margin model S/X production has been reduced. Tesla made something like $92 million in Q3 selling cars. They have already admitted that their margin will drastically shrink in Q4 vs Q3. How/why would that trend not continue into Q1? (And to state the obvious on this: Tesla will have to sell each model 3 for $3,750 less to keep the same consumer cost. This is more than their margin...HELLO)

...they haven't raised capital because they didn't have the need. One day they might raise again or they might not. We will see. I hope they do and start building simultaneous Gigafactories.

So if they don't need the money, and they need to increase production, why are they firing a significant portion of their employees? 

Successful businesses don't wait until they NEED the money to raise it...they raise when they know that in the future they will need it. They have about $10 billion in capital needs based on projects which are supposed to be COMPLETED within the next 3 years. Interest rates are (and have been) going up. It is nuts that they are projecting a break-even last quarter, with worsening conditions this quarter. And a debt repayment is about to eat a third of their cash, and their cash is less than their accounts payable. And they claim to have no need to raise.

local capital like Giga 3 is doing the heavy lifting.

Can you find me a single real news organisation that supports the idea that Chinese firms are heavily funding the Giga3?!? NOPE.
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GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1128 on: January 26, 2019, 12:33:12 PM »
Muskian is a different language I have come to realize. Maybe Elon never lies and that what he said just needs to be interpreted very differently...

EM: "Just reviewed Tesla’s service locations in North America & realized we have major gaps in geographic coverage! Sorry for this foolish oversight. Tesla will aim to cover all regions of NA (not just big cities) within 3 to 6 months."

Muskian to Honest English Translation: "The noise around our lack of service is getting overwhelming. I'm going to pretend like this is an oops and not a serious infrastructural problem but really...there MAY be ONE new service center that opens in the next 3 to 6 months...as many more Teslas are on the road so the ratio is actually getting worse...problem solved! And I'm a genius."

http://www.thedrive.com/tech/26173/tesla-service-center-expansion-stuck-in-infrastructure-hell


Reality is that this is a several BILLION dollar problem. Same with Supercharger Expansion. Both problems get worse with every Tesla sold. (Pack that in your margin-calculating pipe and smoke it). So many theoretical expenditures, so little real cash.
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1129 on: January 26, 2019, 12:50:48 PM »
1. Demand in the US for the high end model is still there and international markets add to the demand

2. They are reducing labor costs to increase margins to support the Black Model 3

3. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-results-debt/tesla-will-tap-local-debt-to-fund-2-billion-shanghai-gigafactory-musk-idUSKBN1KM6BI
 
Quote
Tesla Inc said on Wednesday that it would raise capital from Asian debt markets to fund the construction of its third “Gigafactory,” which will be located in Shanghai and cost an approximate $2 billion


Don't ya'll get tired of being wrong?
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GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1130 on: January 26, 2019, 01:32:24 PM »

 
Quote
Tesla Inc said on Wednesday that it would raise capital from Asian debt markets to fund the construction of its third “Gigafactory,” which will be located in Shanghai and cost an approximate $2 billion


Don't ya'll get tired of being wrong?

hahahahahahahha   blahahahahahah

I asked for a news org CONFIRMING Chinese funding...not just a report of TESLA SAYS THEY WANNA...do you not understand the difference?

Tesla WANNA make a magic flying car. Tesla WANNA make a magic roof tile. Tesla WANNA make a magic self driving taxi. Tesla WANNA have the chinese loan them money for a factory. Tesla WANNA not be insolvent.
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1132 on: January 26, 2019, 02:46:32 PM »
Giga 3 construction is not pausing for the traditional week to 10 days off usually taken around the Chinese New Year.  This is like working through U.S. Thanksgiving and Christmas holidays.

Quote
Vincent (@vincent13031925) 1/25/19, 2:37 AM
1. Chinese gov media CCTV reported:
Construction company said they speeding up the @Tesla Shanghai Gigafactory project and did not receive the Lunar New Year holiday notice.
Official video link:
http://tv.cctv.com/v/v1/VIDEFRUe46kMgZOLQUg98aOM190124.html
https://twitter.com/vincent13031925/status/1088702295217385473

Quote
Vincent (@vincent13031925) 1/25/19, 2:44 AM
2. Chen Jie, Shanghai Lingang Development & Construction Mgt Committee: In order to speed up the @Tesla Shanghai GF3 construction, the Shanghai Lingang Gov changed the construction approval. Normal approval takes 15 months & #Tesla project only took 5 months.
https://twitter.com/vincent13031925/status/1088704142065819648
Media images at the link.
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1133 on: January 26, 2019, 02:54:58 PM »
<snip; link good enough for me, N.>
« Last Edit: January 26, 2019, 03:03:37 PM by Neven »
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1134 on: January 26, 2019, 03:33:09 PM »
Both glories and failures:

Were You Laid Off by Tesla? So Was I.

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/were-you-laid-off-tesla-so-i-cayle-hunter

Quote
My situation is not unique.

I am one of 3,000 laid off by Tesla on January 18th. One of approximately 7,000 layoffs in the last 9 months.

Before I started at Tesla, I was fortunate enough to have career options with some incredible companies, but the opportunity to bring a product as disruptive as the Model 3 to the mass market was too exciting to pass up. How often in your career do you get to work on a project with that much impact and visibility? So my wife and I sold our home, found the best school we could for our daughters, and relocated to a strange new place. I went off to play my part in changing the face of transportation forever.

I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1135 on: January 26, 2019, 04:05:31 PM »
Both glories and failures:

Were You Laid Off by Tesla? So Was I.

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/were-you-laid-off-tesla-so-i-cayle-hunter

Quote
My situation is not unique.

I am one of 3,000 laid off by Tesla on January 18th. One of approximately 7,000 layoffs in the last 9 months.


So now that they laid off 7,000 people, they are going to really ramp up production to achieve permanent profitability? Have we finally reached the moment of break-through auto manufacturing automation and the ALIEN DREADNOUGHT has awakened!?! Very excited to hear about this...can someone please send me a link.
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BeeKnees

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1136 on: January 26, 2019, 11:16:33 PM »
So now that they laid off 7,000 people, they are going to really ramp up production to achieve permanent profitability? Have we finally reached the moment of break-through auto manufacturing automation and the ALIEN DREADNOUGHT has awakened!?! Very excited to hear about this...can someone please send me a link.

I've been trying to get my head around this.  Just over 12 months ago Tesla had a workforce of 33,000 and before the latest cuts had a workforce of 45,000.  So a net gain of 9,000 after all the cuts.

The amount of talk over production line inefficiencies leads me to think that as they are ironed out then less staff are required to cover for the failure of the automation.  I suspect this round of cuts wont reduce production, but they are still a long way off targets.

GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1137 on: January 27, 2019, 04:51:01 AM »
So now that they laid off 7,000 people, they are going to really ramp up production to achieve permanent profitability? Have we finally reached the moment of break-through auto manufacturing automation and the ALIEN DREADNOUGHT has awakened!?! Very excited to hear about this...can someone please send me a link.

I've been trying to get my head around this.  Just over 12 months ago Tesla had a workforce of 33,000 and before the latest cuts had a workforce of 45,000.  So a net gain of 9,000 after all the cuts.

The amount of talk over production line inefficiencies leads me to think that as they are ironed out then less staff are required to cover for the failure of the automation.  I suspect this round of cuts wont reduce production, but they are still a long way off targets.

Dope theory...but totally wrong. Tesla cut staff for the high margin models cuz they are 7 and 4 years old, and now have competition, thus demand is falling.

“As a result of this change and because of improving efficiencies in our production lines, we have reduced Model S and X production hours accordingly,” a Tesla spokesperson said in an email.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-production/tesla-to-cut-production-hours-for-model-s-and-x-idUSKCN1PH2AK

Who actually believes that after 7 years, Tesla realized they don't need staff to make the Model S afterall...and not that demand for a stagnant model eventually falls?
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GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1138 on: January 27, 2019, 05:08:55 AM »
Lets guess at Model 3 decline in Q1. Lets pretend it is any other vehicle. It is known that it gets almost $4k more expensive on Jan 1. How many people buy the car in Q1 vs Q4? 75% as many? Half? 25%? I really don't know. But it has to be way less right?!?  This is why Tesla cut prices by $2k to partially offset, right? Any other theories as to why demand will be flat or up, and/or why if demand is fine that they cut prices?
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BeeKnees

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1139 on: January 27, 2019, 10:11:21 PM »
Lets guess at Model 3 decline in Q1. Lets pretend it is any other vehicle. It is known that it gets almost $4k more expensive on Jan 1. How many people buy the car in Q1 vs Q4? 75% as many? Half? 25%? I really don't know. But it has to be way less right?!?  This is why Tesla cut prices by $2k to partially offset, right? Any other theories as to why demand will be flat or up, and/or why if demand is fine that they cut prices?
What's your guess?

At the moment you appear to be predicting a collapse of sales across all models so it will be interesting to see if this is as good as your last screams of doom.

I'll wait and see.
« Last Edit: January 27, 2019, 10:25:58 PM by BeeKnees »

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1140 on: January 27, 2019, 11:06:41 PM »
Lets guess at Model 3 decline in Q1. Lets pretend it is any other vehicle. It is known that it gets almost $4k more expensive on Jan 1. How many people buy the car in Q1 vs Q4? 75% as many? Half? 25%? I really don't know. But it has to be way less right?!?  This is why Tesla cut prices by $2k to partially offset, right? Any other theories as to why demand will be flat or up, and/or why if demand is fine that they cut prices?
What's your guess?

At the moment you appear to be predicting a collapse of sales across all models so it will be interesting to see if this is as good as your last screams of doom.

I'll wait and see.

yeah, extreme views damage the cause even when the direction of thinking is right or agreed upon.

BTW any extremist, no matter which "relegion" is of the same kind and is causing war and desctruction. all the "religions" come under various discguise but serve to gain power and wealth on cost of all others and they pretend to have found the one and only truth.

if i had a say i would declare this attitudes a crime because almost all evil comes/came from guys who pretended to know the one and only truth and trie to enforce it by hurting all others.

it's totally possible to mention that tesla is a great product and that musk kicked of a few important movements while at the same time his days at the helms of those kick-offs have to be measured carefully to not put the projects at risk. this is not about good and bad but about different skills and compatibility of skills and attitudes.

rarel has an inventor and "maker" been to right person to preserve his own invention or enterprise from a certain point onward. it's kind of contradictory because totally different personalities are needed to either build from scratch and/or manage large enterprises.
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GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1141 on: January 28, 2019, 06:47:41 AM »
Lets guess at Model 3 decline in Q1. Lets pretend it is any other vehicle. It is known that it gets almost $4k more expensive on Jan 1. How many people buy the car in Q1 vs Q4? 75% as many? Half? 25%? I really don't know. But it has to be way less right?!?  This is why Tesla cut prices by $2k to partially offset, right? Any other theories as to why demand will be flat or up, and/or why if demand is fine that they cut prices?
What's your guess?

At the moment you appear to be predicting a collapse of sales across all models so it will be interesting to see if this is as good as your last screams of doom.

I'll wait and see.

If by 25%-75% as much as before is what you mean by "collapse", then yes I am. What were the screams of doom from before that you are referring to? Me saying that Tesla can't run a sustained profit and will have to restructure?!?

You do realize that a Tesla chapter 11 isn't even "doom" for Tesla, right? Sure it is doom for the stock holders, but that really isn't a very big deal. A chapter 7, which is quite a bit less likely IMO (at least in the next year), is doom for Tesla...but I would never describe that as "OMG, NOOOOO". They are a luxury car manufacturer who help rich ppl to virtue signal on their way to next flight. The world is better off forcing those ppl to find a more helpful way to virtue signal. The only thing I scream "DOOOOM" about is wilderness loss and maybe rapid atmospheric changes. If Tesla going bankrupt is doom in your mind, I pity you.

Congratulations on not in any way responding to the substance of my post.


Interesting thing occured to me today. If Tesla COULD raise capital by issuing equity, there is no chance they would be laying off a significant portion of their labor force to cut cost while trying to rapidly grow. Thus, they CANT issue new stock. Thus, there is something very significant which is not public information. And it is quite obviously a very bad thing, otherwise they would just make it public and raise and grow as they claim to be wanting to. Alright, now please ignore everything I just said, and insult me.


https://twitter.com/CGasparino/status/1089656335321440256

(referring to his previous report that Tesla LIKELY will have the cash to pay off the $920m due March 1)... "there are people inside who say they can do it; there are others who say its close, best i can tell you"

Now before everyone loses their minds and calls me a screaming zealot...NOBODY who actually has a clue is suggesting that Tesla won't have $920m on March 1. (Thats not the way it works.) If Tesla isn't making much of a Q4 profit, and is losing money Q1 and Q2 looks bleaker, then they can't/shouldn't repay the loan. Currently the accounts payable is about $4b and they have approx $3b cash. The board cannot prioritize bond holders over suppliers. It is a slightly complicated issue (and one that I'm not very well versed in) but the general idea is that secured creditors have first right to being made whole, followed by suppliers and other creditors. Most importantly, the board has a duty not to fully repay one group at the expense of anyone of the same or higher status. And of course, shareholders come last along with anyone who gave Tesla a deposit with the hope of getting a car one day (ouch). Somewhat ironically, there is a ton of overlap between those who have a deposit with Tesla and those who have purchased the stock...both of whom will likely end up with $ZERO.

(For reference: GM had $14b cash in their file filing before they reorganized.)
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1142 on: January 28, 2019, 01:19:11 PM »
If by 25%-75% as much as before is what you mean by "collapse", then yes I am. What were the screams of doom from before that you are referring to? Me saying that Tesla can't run a sustained profit and will have to restructure?!?

<snip, don't quote long texts, only the parts you're referring to; N.>

I believe your last claim was
"I'm not going to bother citing anything. It's all over but the crying."

So 50% fall in sales of tesla cars in Q1 2019 is your estimate.  Seems unlikely to me but fair play for sticking your neck out.
« Last Edit: January 28, 2019, 03:22:16 PM by Neven »

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1143 on: January 28, 2019, 03:21:03 PM »
I guess sales won't change significant, because they start delivering outside the USA in Q1. Q2 will probably taking advantage of it, but I think demand for the most expansive models will be fullfilled so they must start with making and delivering the cheaper models and make enough margin on them. If they manage to do that while increasing production numbers before the end of Q2 they will survive for the short term I guess.

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1144 on: January 28, 2019, 04:08:41 PM »

I believe your last claim was
"I'm not going to bother citing anything. It's all over but the crying."

So 50% fall in sales of tesla cars in Q1 2019 is your estimate.  Seems unlikely to me but fair play for sticking your neck out.

It is a song lyric. Yes, it is somewhat hyperbolic. I thought it was obvious that I didn't literally mean that nothing else would happen now except people crying. I just meant that the die was cast; Tesla crossed the Rubicon: there was genuine discussion about recapitalizing the company with an equity takeover. In that sort of situation there is no way that without some huge change, any new capital could be acquired without a restructure.

NO, I did not say a 50% drop in sales was my estimate. I asked what other people thought and asked 25%, 50%, 75%...I dunno.

My guess is the numbers from previous Qs are not even honest, so it is very hard to really make any prediction. This is the company that invented the term "factory-gated" after all.
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1145 on: January 28, 2019, 05:24:38 PM »
There will be a sharp drop in US sales, maybe 50-75%. Will it matter? Depends on Europe and China.
BTW, when you doubt everything the company reports, including actual delivery numbers, while you quote to your liking anything you deem negative that is contained in the company's reports and announcements, it's very hard to have an intelligent conversation.

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1146 on: January 28, 2019, 07:17:35 PM »
Tesla bears exclaiming loud and long about the company’s imminent demise — until they are questioned closely, then they are much less sure.

Elon is a fwaud.
Tesla will be bankwupt Real Soon Now.
#No demand.

Quote
ValueAnalyst (@ValueAnalyst1) 1/28/19, 11:51 AM
Just so that we are all clear:
@OphirGottlieb, "contrib @Reuters," are you publicly claiming that @Tesla is employing fraudent accounting and that @PwC @PwCUS have failed to detect it?
https://twitter.com/valueanalyst1/status/1089929038309789696

Ophir Gottlieb (@OphirGottlieb) 1/28/19, 11:56 AM
@PwC is *not* responsible for uncovering fraud, that is not what auditors do (they have a hard enough job).
Second, yeah, I think it's possible Tesla fudged the numbers and we will see if that holds any truth in the following quarters. On average it takes 9 qs to show.

ValueAnalyst (@ValueAnalyst1) 1/28/19, 11:57 AM
@OphirGottlieb @Reuters @Tesla @PwC @PwCUS @elonmusk Ah, so now you added "possible."
Thanks for clarifying


Will The Mainstream Media Hold Positive Tesla News Hostage? — #Pravduh About #Tesla Report 21 | CleanTechnica
Quote
The next month may be one of the most important for #Pravduh about #Tesla, because the people — including shareholders and potential investors on the sidelines — are being misled.

So far, January is turning out to be the most negative news month since September. One of the biggest clouds on the horizon, the convertible debt bond worth $920 million, is due to be payed in March. Tesla could get a 50% discount on this ($460 million), but only if it meets a certain criterium — a stock price of around $360. This all depends on a well informed public.

How about we put that $460 million into some perspective? $450 million dollars is how much Tesla spent on Gigafactory 1 construction in the first 7 quarters of its development. Imagine two years of initial Gigafactory 3 costs completely gone. Instead, we have short sellers masquerading as analysts and dropping the hot potato that is Tesla.

Remember when creditor Moody’s downgraded Tesla just days before an earnings report disproving their theory was published? Well, guess what — history is repeating itself. This time, the RBC downgraded Tesla shortly before an earnings report instead of holding their horses a few more days to see whether their theories pan out. (We know, that’s how analysts roll.)

The media, meanwhile, might again choose to hold positive Tesla news hostage while amplifying anything negative they can get their hands on. If this happens in the coming week, don’t be surprised. ...
https://cleantechnica.com/2019/01/27/will-the-mainstream-media-hold-positive-tesla-news-hostage-pravduh-about-tesla-report-21/


Tesla Q4 and 2018 Financial Results: Wednesday, January 30.
All those who promised to stop posting about Tesla financial demise/bankwuptcy if Q4 was profitable, now’s your last chance!

http://ir.tesla.com/events-and-presentations
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1147 on: January 28, 2019, 08:50:51 PM »
There will be a sharp drop in US sales, maybe 50-75%. Will it matter? Depends on Europe and China.
BTW, when you doubt everything the company reports, including actual delivery numbers, while you quote to your liking anything you deem negative that is contained in the company's reports and announcements, it's very hard to have an intelligent conversation.

There is a reason I doubt the reporting of Tesla...they (predominately Elon his close circle) have consistently lied. Do you not factor that in? I think without paying attention to the track record of the companies claims, THAT is the main impediment to having an intelligent conversation!

The Tesla bulls are totally unwilling to engage in conversation about what has clearly been fraud. All they do is espouse ad hominem attacks. The whole situation is super interesting. What bothers me is that the bulls genuinely seem blind to a vast history of lies and deceit, and seem to believe that the ends will justify the means.

Although I'm also very annoyed with the idea that Elon cares about the planet and is some sort of humanitarian...how is it helpful fooling the unknowing masses into believing Mars will soon be habitable? (This is probably the biggest disservice to the environmental movement imaginable.) And really, how uber-anti-green is hyper fast rocket travel?


big time oops

GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1148 on: January 28, 2019, 09:53:58 PM »

Tesla Q4 and 2018 Financial Results: Wednesday, January 30.
All those who promised to stop posting about Tesla financial demise/bankwuptcy if Q4 was profitable, now’s your last chance!


Fraudulent companies misstate their earnings. DUH. Tesla is run by an admitted (and so clearly and repeatedly egregiously) fraud spewing fool, that only a Muskian believes what Tesla reports.

https://www.nytimes.com/2001/11/09/business/enron-admits-to-overstating-profits-by-about-600-million.html

Let's play a little game where we seen who can name more public large scale lies. You get enron, I get tesla. (hint: I'm going to win...by a lot)
big time oops

GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1149 on: January 28, 2019, 09:59:32 PM »
Giga 3 construction is not pausing for the traditional week to 10 days off usually taken around the Chinese New Year.  This is like working through U.S. Thanksgiving and Christmas holidays.

https://twitter.com/_chaozhou/status/1089721126375149569

Clearly they are working HARD. So hard that they only work at night, and camouflage all the heavy machinery during the day...you know, the Chinese Way.
big time oops