Lets guess at Model 3 decline in Q1. Lets pretend it is any other vehicle. It is known that it gets almost $4k more expensive on Jan 1. How many people buy the car in Q1 vs Q4? 75% as many? Half? 25%? I really don't know. But it has to be way less right?!? This is why Tesla cut prices by $2k to partially offset, right? Any other theories as to why demand will be flat or up, and/or why if demand is fine that they cut prices?
What's your guess?
At the moment you appear to be predicting a collapse of sales across all models so it will be interesting to see if this is as good as your last screams of doom.
I'll wait and see.
If by 25%-75% as much as before is what you mean by "collapse", then yes I am. What were the screams of doom from before that you are referring to? Me saying that Tesla can't run a sustained profit and will have to restructure?!?
You do realize that a Tesla chapter 11 isn't even "doom" for Tesla, right? Sure it is doom for the stock holders, but that really isn't a very big deal. A chapter 7, which is quite a bit less likely IMO (at least in the next year), is doom for Tesla...but I would never describe that as "OMG, NOOOOO". They are a luxury car manufacturer who help rich ppl to virtue signal on their way to next flight. The world is better off forcing those ppl to find a more helpful way to virtue signal. The only thing I scream "DOOOOM" about is wilderness loss and maybe rapid atmospheric changes. If Tesla going bankrupt is doom in your mind, I pity you.
Congratulations on not in any way responding to the substance of my post.
Interesting thing occured to me today. If Tesla COULD raise capital by issuing equity, there is no chance they would be laying off a significant portion of their labor force to cut cost while trying to rapidly grow. Thus, they CANT issue new stock. Thus, there is something very significant which is not public information. And it is quite obviously a very bad thing, otherwise they would just make it public and raise and grow as they claim to be wanting to. Alright, now please ignore everything I just said, and insult me.
https://twitter.com/CGasparino/status/1089656335321440256(referring to his previous report that Tesla LIKELY will have the cash to pay off the $920m due March 1)... "there are people inside who say they can do it; there are others who say its close, best i can tell you"
Now before everyone loses their minds and calls me a screaming zealot...NOBODY who actually has a clue is suggesting that Tesla won't have $920m on March 1. (Thats not the way it works.) If Tesla isn't making much of a Q4 profit, and is losing money Q1 and Q2 looks bleaker, then they can't/shouldn't repay the loan. Currently the accounts payable is about $4b and they have approx $3b cash. The board cannot prioritize bond holders over suppliers. It is a slightly complicated issue (and one that I'm not very well versed in) but the general idea is that secured creditors have first right to being made whole, followed by suppliers and other creditors.
Most importantly, the board has a duty not to fully repay one group at the expense of anyone of the same or higher status. And of course, shareholders come last along with anyone who gave Tesla a deposit with the hope of getting a car one day (ouch). Somewhat ironically, there is a ton of overlap between those who have a deposit with Tesla and those who have purchased the stock...both of whom will likely end up with $ZERO.
(For reference: GM had $14b cash in their file filing before they reorganized.)