Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Author Topic: Tesla glory/failure  (Read 49924 times)

zizek

  • ASIF Citizen
  • Posts: 359
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 25
  • Likes Given: 9
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1400 on: February 16, 2019, 01:20:43 AM »
I like this website:

https://www.tesla.com/en_CA/carbonimpact

Because it provides absolutely no context. It tries to tell me that Tesla has reduced emissions by 3.5 million tons***.  But if all those people decided to use public transportation or riding a bicycle, their emissions would actually be in the red

Technically, in only 87 days BP managed to reduce almost 2 million tons (or about 4 million Tesla tons***) of CO2 by putting that oil in the ocean instead. Amazing.

---------
****
hahaha. Oh my god. When I did my calculations I didn't know what unit of ton TSLA was using.  So I added all the pounds from each country to get a total amount of pounds. But I couldn't get anything that matched their total. But that's because they divided their total lbs by 1000, rather than 2000 (or 2200). It's not a metric tonne, or an imperial ton. It's an imaginary ton.   ;D
their CO2 emissions are off by a factor of 2. hahaha.  Someone please check my work. this is too good.



Actually I think BP is better off than Tesla because at least BP didn't sell pollution credits so other companies can pay to pollute for them!

Archimid

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1657
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 79
  • Likes Given: 115
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1401 on: February 16, 2019, 04:26:04 AM »
The lies and trolling, I can get used to, but insulting Sigmet Now for posting on topic links is wrong.

I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

Bruce Steele

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1305
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 30
  • Likes Given: 6
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1402 on: February 16, 2019, 05:33:18 AM »
This thread gets kinda crazy sometimes. I am getting some power walls before I get an electric car. They can store about 27 kW of electricity and even if my solar array cranks on a clear day it may have trouble loading the 27 kW -2.7 kW of emergency power on an average day. That is the two walls will only hold 24.3 kW of power they can send into a electric car per day so 85 kW - 24.3 or 60.7 kW would need to come off the grid . If there were some extra solar power available it would need to go to the house/farm. The point is even with over 6 kW in solar panels a substantial portion of the energy needed to charge a 85 kW car is going to come off the grid. Depending on the renewable share of your utility supply some of your energy will be fossil fuel derived.
 In spite of the above points by the time a Tesla gets to 135,000 it will have produced half of the CO2 emissions of a similar sized ICE car according to a salon article. This includes the embodied carbon in manufacture even though the Teslas embodied manufacture costs start about 15% higher than an ICE.
 

https://www.salon.com/2017/05/14/sorry-tesla-owners-but-your-electric-car/

Batteries for the power wall and any Tesla battery replacements , not uncommon at 135,000 miles, would decrease the one half CO2 to something less. Maybe something that means a Tesla only saves ~ one third an ICE cars footprint.
My point is this is a reasonable result but maybe not as good a result as some people seem to believe.
On the other hand these numbers are based on substantial amounts of driving that seems far more than anything really justified for someone really concerned with reducing their carbon footprint.
 I am not sure these results justify the emotional bent on either side of this debate . Teslas glory or failure may be dependent on factors other than it's enviornmental impacts unless technological improvements in batteries can improve some of these numbers. I think there are battery improvements in the pipeline but it will take some time before these numbers change much.


 

oren

  • ASIF Governor
  • Posts: 3227
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 360
  • Likes Given: 779
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1403 on: February 16, 2019, 09:21:15 AM »
Bruce, good points but just one correction - the car doesn"t need a full charge each day, only a topping up. 85kw can get you ~300 miles, which is probably 1-2 weeks worth of driving.
But I agree, in general it is a very partial solution. Being a pragmatist, I prefer a partial solution to no solution at all, but I will not delude myself as to the completeness of this solution, and I will keep hoping for more comprehensive solutions including changes in lifestyles.

Rob Dekker

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 2204
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 84
  • Likes Given: 92
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1404 on: February 16, 2019, 09:28:49 AM »
https://www.tesla.com/en_CA/carbonimpact
...
hahaha. Oh my god. When I did my calculations I didn't know what unit of ton TSLA was using.  So I added all the pounds from each country to get a total amount of pounds. But I couldn't get anything that matched their total. But that's because they divided their total lbs by 1000, rather than 2000 (or 2200). It's not a metric tonne, or an imperial ton. It's an imaginary ton.   ;D
their CO2 emissions are off by a factor of 2. hahaha.  Someone please check my work. this is too good.

If you add up all the pounds from each country, you end up just around 8 billion lbs. That (divided by 2000) matches nicely with the 4 Million (US) ton they mention as the total.

Looks like Tesla is correct.
« Last Edit: February 16, 2019, 10:12:19 AM by Rob Dekker »
This is our planet. This is our time.
Let's not waste either.

Bruce Steele

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1305
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 30
  • Likes Given: 6
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1405 on: February 16, 2019, 10:31:01 AM »
Oren, I see five or six Teslas a day here in Southern Calif. when I hit the freeways. They are beautiful , sexy and so tempting. I am sure they will be as common as Volkswagens Beatles once were ,very soon.
A typical commute can easily exceed 60 miles one way around here so in a five year period a typical commuter will exceed the 135,000 miles the Solon article bases its study upon. That is rather typical but some people commute further.
 I can spend weeks sometimes never leaving the farm but there are literally tens of millions of commuters living within 150 miles . Maybe I should leave but I never will. I hope someone might learn something from my rather extreme attempts at simplicity but honestly there are no solutions here anymore. I too consider myself rather pragmatic but I suppose I am just nuts like everyone else around here.
 Neven, please don't take Zizek out. We can handle a few angry voices around here. Zizek, I don't know how to make you smile but think of my position, an old man with a thousand pounds of acorns in the drying shed and lots of very fat happy pigs on a farm inside a swirling mass of humans. I hope you find that humorous , I do.
« Last Edit: February 16, 2019, 10:58:15 AM by Bruce Steele »

Neven

  • Administrator
  • ASIF Royalty
  • *****
  • Posts: 6331
    • View Profile
    • Arctic Sea Ice Blog
  • Liked: 280
  • Likes Given: 195
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1406 on: February 16, 2019, 11:17:43 AM »
Neven, please don't take Zizek out. We can handle a few angry voices around here.

I won't, but I want him to take his rants about the moral implications of Tesla/Musk elsewhere, like here or here.

This thread isn't about Tesla per se, but about whether Tesla is going to go bankrupt soon or not.
Il faut comparer, comparer, comparer, et cultiver notre jardin

Sigmetnow

  • ASIF Emperor
  • Posts: 13593
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 175
  • Likes Given: 103
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1407 on: February 16, 2019, 02:03:40 PM »
I would post positive articles about other companies who threaten Tesla’s success with their own EVs, battery storage, or solar production — if there were any.  But there aren’t, so…. ;D

Reminder: Tesla’s board, Elon Musk and Tesla shareholders approved a 10-year compensation package for Elon that is based purely on Tesla’s performance:
Quote
Elon will receive no guaranteed compensation of any kind — no salary, no cash bonuses, and no equity that vests by the passage of time. Instead, Elon’s only compensation will be a 100% at-risk performance award, which ensures that he will be compensated only if Tesla and all of our stockholders do extraordinarily well. The award consists of stock options that vest only if Tesla achieves specific milestones, which if fully achieved would make Tesla one of the most valuable companies in the world with a market capitalization of at least $650 billion — more than 10x today’s value.
http://ir.tesla.com/secfiling.cfm?filingID=1193125-18-35345&CIK=1318605
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Archimid

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1657
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 79
  • Likes Given: 115
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1408 on: February 16, 2019, 02:17:48 PM »
The evil Elon Musk paradox. He is a scammer who invested all his money and time on a company that is going bankrupt. He keeps buying his own stock even when there is no demand. He works for free on a company that can't produce cars.

 Worst. Scammer. Ever.

I mean, how much he can really sell and then hop on his jet to some extradition free location? Wouldn't he lose a lot of money if he was a scammer? The only way for him to gain something out of this is if he succeeds.

He puts his money, and more important, his time where his mouth is. Go Tesla. This is happening.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

zizek

  • ASIF Citizen
  • Posts: 359
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 25
  • Likes Given: 9
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1409 on: February 16, 2019, 10:22:47 PM »
https://www.tesla.com/en_CA/carbonimpact
...
hahaha. Oh my god. When I did my calculations I didn't know what unit of ton TSLA was using.  So I added all the pounds from each country to get a total amount of pounds. But I couldn't get anything that matched their total. But that's because they divided their total lbs by 1000, rather than 2000 (or 2200). It's not a metric tonne, or an imperial ton. It's an imaginary ton.   ;D
their CO2 emissions are off by a factor of 2. hahaha.  Someone please check my work. this is too good.

If you add up all the pounds from each country, you end up just around 8 billion lbs. That (divided by 2000) matches nicely with the 4 Million (US) ton they mention as the total.

Looks like Tesla is correct.

hahaha. Looks like they changed it.  I posted this on another high traffic forum so I wouldn't be surprised if someone caught it or another person messaged Tesla.

Luckily, it hasn't updated on my laptop. My phone showed the new figures which were conveniently multiplied by 2.2. Here is the screenshot of my laptop.


zizek

  • ASIF Citizen
  • Posts: 359
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 25
  • Likes Given: 9
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1410 on: February 16, 2019, 10:46:33 PM »
<instead of just snipping, I've copied your comment to here; N.>
« Last Edit: February 17, 2019, 09:15:03 AM by Neven »

Rob Dekker

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 2204
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 84
  • Likes Given: 92
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1411 on: February 17, 2019, 07:43:50 AM »
Huh? What 4 million (US) ton? 3,549,661.84 tons (copy/past isn't 4 million when I went to school)

Not sure why this is so hard for you guys :

https://www.tesla.com/carbonimpact

Latest count is 3,955,673 tons. Close enough to 4 Mton.

Quote
Is a US ton only 2,000 lbs? 

Yes. It's also called a 'short ton'.
This is our planet. This is our time.
Let's not waste either.

Rob Dekker

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 2204
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 84
  • Likes Given: 92
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1412 on: February 17, 2019, 07:49:21 AM »
hahaha. Looks like they changed it.  I posted this on another high traffic forum so I wouldn't be surprised if someone caught it or another person messaged Tesla.

Luckily, it hasn't updated on my laptop. My phone showed the new figures which were conveniently multiplied by 2.2. Here is the screenshot of my laptop.



That screenshot is edited.
The line that says Tesla @ 2019 | Privacy & Legal | Contact | Careers ... comes at the end of the page. Not where you put it.

Why are you messing with the picture, and when exactly did you take this screenshot ?
« Last Edit: February 17, 2019, 08:08:23 AM by Rob Dekker »
This is our planet. This is our time.
Let's not waste either.

Sigmetnow

  • ASIF Emperor
  • Posts: 13593
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 175
  • Likes Given: 103
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1413 on: February 17, 2019, 03:41:23 PM »
So... no demand for the I-PACE? ???

Jaguar starts offering 0% financing on I-Pace to boost EV sales
https://electrek.co/2019/02/16/jaguar-i-pace-financing-deal/
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

  • ASIF Emperor
  • Posts: 13593
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 175
  • Likes Given: 103
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1414 on: February 17, 2019, 08:54:34 PM »
The Tesla Model 3 European invasion has begun!
—- Germany:
Quote
Alex (@alex_avoigt) 2/15/19, 8:59 AM
Today in Weinstadt
Someone reported at the Delivery Center 3 Trailer been busy unloading Model 3s in 30 minutes and 2 other other came in right after.
Looks like they are running out of space using the lawn now...
https://twitter.com/alex_avoigt/status/1096408787014037504
Photos at the link.

Düsseldorf
[Service Center] is packed. 3s will be moved Mo to the new delivery center in Neuss Harbor. Employee said a huge load of 3s is already waiting there. Assume process changes & the strike in Seebrügge [Belgium] did cause to transfer 3s to SeC in [Germany] first while [Delivery Center] are not all ready yet.

Hamburg:
This Tuesday they had 18 M3s & today 25 are at the showroom. Team is really busy. A new Delivery Center is building up at the harbor who is connect by direct train track to Zeebrugge & once ready the real thing will happen until then just a few 100 will be delivered
https://twitter.com/alex_avoigt/status/1096461152522043392
McGyver: Do you have confirmation that they'll use the train for transport from Zeebrugge?
- Thats was the poster in the German Forum wrote based of first hand information from a Tesla employee.

Thomas (@Clutter_Monster) 2/16/19, 2:32 AM
#Model3 arrived in #Frankfurt
https://twitter.com/clutter_monster/status/1096673704765988865
Video walkby: 5 or 6 car-carriers line the street in Frankfurt!

   Even Europeans are surprised at the demand for the Model 3 in Germany:
Soycengiz (@Alpsoy66) 2/15/19, 2:11 PM
It was obvious that Model3 demand in Norway and Netherlands would be big, but Germany is the biggest surprise here. Germans r embracing model3 wholeheartedly. Lets c how France develops

Germany to extend electric company car tax incentives
Quote
(Reuters) - German Finance Minister Olaf Scholz plans to extend tax incentives for electric company cars, he told a newspaper on Saturday, the government's latest attempt to boost demand for clean vehicles.
Germany is trying to increase electric car sales in the wake of a diesel emissions cheating scandal that has engulfed its auto industry in the last three years.
"Half of all cars sold in Germany are company cars," Scholz told the Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung.

"So I have decided that we will not end tax support for electric cars and plug-in hybrid company cars in 2021 but extend them maybe over the whole decade," he said, adding that would help improve air quality and meet climate goals.
He added, however, that the rules for plug-in hybrids would be tightened, so that only cars that can travel on electric power further than they do today would be eligible. …
https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKCN1Q50JN

—- France:
Quote
Aurora (@AuroreVerdie) 2/15/19, 8:52 AM
Here are the first French Model 3 deliveries guys, it is starting
https://twitter.com/auroreverdie/status/1096406862864486400
Photos at the link.

—- Norway:
More And More Tesla Model 3 Reach Norway: Sales Imminent
https://teslamotorsclub.com/blog/2019/02/16/more-tesla-model-3-norway/

Quote
Lasse Edvardsen (@nasalahe) 2/15/19, 8:54 AM.
First official Model 3 customer cars registered in Norway 1 hour ago! teslastats.no #model3 #teslamodel3 #tesla #registration #norway
https://twitter.com/nasalahe/status/1096407454206881792
More stats at his link, including district of the registration. (Click on the buttons under the “All time highest registration“ data.)
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

  • ASIF Emperor
  • Posts: 13593
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 175
  • Likes Given: 103
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1415 on: February 17, 2019, 08:59:49 PM »
—-  But, sad times for the traditional automakers!
 
European Car Sales Fall For Fifth Month In A Row
Quote
In keeping with the global stagnation that has enveloped the auto industry, the latest EU/EFTA vehicle registration data paints an ominous picture to start 2019 in Europe, where passenger car registrations dropped 4.6% year over year and sales declined in all of largest markets in Germany, France, the U.K., Italy and Spain.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-02-15/european-car-sales-fall-fifth-month-row

In January 2019, BMW Group Sold Just 7,234 Plug-In EVs
https://insideevs.com/january-2019-bmw-group-sold-plug-ins/

Porsche asks UK buyers to commit to 10% no-deal Brexit surcharge
Company says move is a precaution in case WTO tariffs apply to EU-UK trade
https://amp.theguardian.com/business/2019/feb/15/porsche-asks-uk-buyers-to-commit-to-10-no-deal-brexit-surcharge
This could certainly have dampened demand for the I-PACE, at least temporarily.

Audi e-tron started production on Sept 3, 2018. (Per Electrek)
Almost 6 months later, still none in owners’ hands?
Even Tesla had delivered 1,772 Model 3 in its troubled first 6 months.
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

  • ASIF Emperor
  • Posts: 13593
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 175
  • Likes Given: 103
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1416 on: February 17, 2019, 09:04:27 PM »
—- Meanwhile, in China:
Quote
Vincent (@vincent13031925) 2/15/19, 10:53 AM
The first batch @Tesla Model 3 (with MX & MS) in Tianjin port of China
Congratulation to Model 3 owners in China Delivery should start really soon for you guys! 恭喜恭喜!
$TSLA #Tesla #Model3 #China #TeslaChina #特斯拉
https://twitter.com/vincent13031925/status/1096437254283702272
Photos at the link.

—- And on the dock in San Francisco:
Quote
Still trying to get to the cool table. (@whitfletcher) 2/15/19, 4:34 PM
Friday 1:30 PM PST Pier 80 SFO. As close to capacity as I've ever seen, 3 trucks unloading simultaneously. Fairly large capacity at Fremont should they need it.
https://twitter.com/whitfletcher/status/1096523079470112769
Photos at the link.
< Did they always load all cars waiting on the lot/at the pier everytime a ship arrived or only a few of them?
- Never all but differing %. Never more than half of stock per ship, but this is hard to guage as deliveries happen continuously.

—- And on the internet:
Quote
Jordan Hart (@RealtyDayton) 2/16/19, 3:08 PM
My friend who drives an #Audi S7 just texted me a few questions about the @Tesla #model3 ... I simply passed some info along, like the performance specs, price, and my favorite features. 30 min later he sends me this picture.
#BigAuto needs to WAKE UP.
https://twitter.com/realtydayton/status/1096863922706104322
(Image at link: ApplePay receipt for Tesla order fee.)

- It's like I couldn't talk him out of it if I tried. It's a compounding domino effect... As more people own these cars and talk about them the people who were on fence before convert in minutes
< Happened to a friend of mine (my one and only referral). She pulled the trigger four months before she thought she would because she couldn’t wait.
<< That's how it happens. Next, he'l find out his spouse has stolen his 3 and he'll be buying a 2nd Tesla.
> This happened to me. We had another 3 within 2 months haha

—-Bonus Vid:  drivers in snowy climes swear by this method of helping to move your car through deep snow. ;D
https://twitter.com/_sjpeace_/status/1095515732161560576
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

  • ASIF Emperor
  • Posts: 13593
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 175
  • Likes Given: 103
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1417 on: February 17, 2019, 09:17:49 PM »
Quote
—- And on the internet:
Quote
Jordan Hart (@RealtyDayton) 2/16/19, 3:08 PM
My friend who drives an #Audi S7 just texted me a few questions about the @Tesla #model3 ... I simply passed some info along, like the performance specs, price, and my favorite features. 30 min later he sends me this picture.
#BigAuto needs to WAKE UP.
https://twitter.com/realtydayton/status/1096863922706104322
(Image at link: ApplePay receipt for Tesla order fee.)
...

Now compare (image below) the paperwork needed just to get on the reservation list for the Porsche Taycan:
Quote
Greg Wester (@gwestr) 1/16/19, 2:13 PM
Tesla took all of this information from the mobile web, with photo captures and e-signatures and Apple Pay. They really don't get it...
https://twitter.com/gwestr/status/1085616153131507712
Text image below.
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

BeeKnees

  • ASIF Lurker
  • Posts: 31
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1
  • Likes Given: 22
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1418 on: February 17, 2019, 09:22:27 PM »

So good job zizek, good job lurk, and good job Rob ... winners one and all.

Anyone want to buy a new electric car from us? You can trust us. We all do Math much better than Elon Musk can.

ROFL

Looks to me like the totals at the bottom of the pages are static and the total at the top is dynamic.

We have no idea how old the figures in the tables are to know how they relate, but as one set has half the value of the other then it seems pretty obvious which page is more recent and which one hasn't been kept up to date.

zizek

  • ASIF Citizen
  • Posts: 359
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 25
  • Likes Given: 9
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1419 on: February 17, 2019, 09:29:22 PM »
hahaha. Looks like they changed it.  I posted this on another high traffic forum so I wouldn't be surprised if someone caught it or another person messaged Tesla.

Luckily, it hasn't updated on my laptop. My phone showed the new figures which were conveniently multiplied by 2.2. Here is the screenshot of my laptop.



That screenshot is edited.
The line that says Tesla @ 2019 | Privacy & Legal | Contact | Careers ... comes at the end of the page. Not where you put it.

Why are you messing with the picture, and when exactly did you take this screenshot ?
God Rob. Have you never been on a website and the tables have broken. When a website isn't optimized to a particular browser size and it messes with the layout? Is this your first time on the internet?

For you, what I have done, I have taken a video of me going to the website on two browsers and showing you the original numbers. Of course, it is possible that I could have fabricated the video, but you'll have to trust me when I say I really don't have that sort of time or skills necessary for such a trivial outcome.

Here's the thing, I would post it right now, but I'm aboard a vessel and data is luxury. So for me take make it worthwhile I'd like to offer a wager.  If my a post is a clear fabrication, then I will donate $50 to an charity and organization of your choice. And vice versa if what I post seems legitimate.  We can let the other users here be the jury. How about it?

zizek

  • ASIF Citizen
  • Posts: 359
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 25
  • Likes Given: 9
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1420 on: February 17, 2019, 10:28:18 PM »

So good job zizek, good job lurk, and good job Rob ... winners one and all.

Anyone want to buy a new electric car from us? You can trust us. We all do Math much better than Elon Musk can.

ROFL

Looks to me like the totals at the bottom of the pages are static and the total at the top is dynamic.

We have no idea how old the figures in the tables are to know how they relate, but as one set has half the value of the other then it seems pretty obvious which page is more recent and which one hasn't been kept up to date.

The lbs were changed from a multiple of 1000 to a multiple of 2200. Those numbers are pretty convenient

Rob Dekker

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 2204
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 84
  • Likes Given: 92
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1421 on: February 18, 2019, 08:17:45 AM »

So good job zizek, good job lurk, and good job Rob ... winners one and all.

Anyone want to buy a new electric car from us? You can trust us. We all do Math much better than Elon Musk can.

ROFL

Looks to me like the totals at the bottom of the pages are static and the total at the top is dynamic.

We have no idea how old the figures in the tables are to know how they relate, but as one set has half the value of the other then it seems pretty obvious which page is more recent and which one hasn't been kept up to date.

The lbs were changed from a multiple of 1000 to a multiple of 2200. Those numbers are pretty convenient

Are you and Lurk in Canada ?
Because I can't see the "https://www.tesla.com/en_CA/carbonimpact" web site.
It just forwards to https://www.tesla.com/carbonimpact.

But from the 'cached' sites, I see that that Canadian web site incorrectly prints 'lbs' where it should print 'kg'. I've sent email to Tesla about this.
This is our planet. This is our time.
Let's not waste either.

BeeKnees

  • ASIF Lurker
  • Posts: 31
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1
  • Likes Given: 22
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1422 on: February 18, 2019, 02:23:41 PM »
Are you and Lurk in Canada ?
Because I can't see the "https://www.tesla.com/en_CA/carbonimpact" web site.
It just forwards to https://www.tesla.com/carbonimpact.

But from the 'cached' sites, I see that that Canadian web site incorrectly prints 'lbs' where it should print 'kg'. I've sent email to Tesla about this.

You can see the first link if you go incognito and prevent tesla from picking up location

magnamentis

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1899
    • View Profile
    • Philosophy Ethics Numerology Mikrocirkulation Vaskular Therapie Gesundheit Blut Gesundheit Schmerzen Multiple Sklerose Diabetes Immunsystem Fibromyalgia Modular Mobile Computing iOS Software OSX Android Custom Rom Rooted
  • Liked: 72
  • Likes Given: 106
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1423 on: February 18, 2019, 10:02:34 PM »
in memory of the recent audi e-tron test that came up with a range of >300km at temps of -6C, wet roads, party and heated cabin to comfort levels, the first test of a tesla 3 by "Auto-Motor & Sport", the leading german car testing etc. magazine, came up with a range of 276 km as compared to the 530km WLTP mark at temperatures of around 5C, damp but not wet roads etc. for the rest that first test went well, i just wanted to mention this shortly to point at the huge difference between cold an warm conditions and that in mind the e-tron should easily reach his goal of over 400km at the 23C temps that are grounds for WLTP measurements.

there will soon be more, especially thorough over all tests and comparison with comparable ICE vehicles as well as durability etc. i'll keep an eye on it because german magazines apply very high standards to sometimes even IMO minor details, hence it won't take long until we get a first really indicating comparison of model 3 with cars we are used to and learn to love, tech, comfort and reliability wise.
« Last Edit: February 18, 2019, 10:14:37 PM by magnamentis »
http://magnamentis.com
Knowledge, Understanding & Insight Are Among The Best Sources For Personal Freedom & Vitality !

Sigmetnow

  • ASIF Emperor
  • Posts: 13593
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 175
  • Likes Given: 103
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1424 on: February 19, 2019, 12:28:56 AM »
Not a fraud.  Not a scam.  Generated about $4.5 million in revenue for its owners during the fourth quarter by helping to balance the freaking power grid!

Tesla's big battery in Australia made another $4 million on its way to pay for itself
Quote
The government also participated in the funding and they shouldn’t be disappointed in their investment since a recent report showed that the project saved $40 million on the energy during its first year of operation alone.
https://electrek.co/2019/02/18/tesla-big-battery-pay-for-itself/
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

oren

  • ASIF Governor
  • Posts: 3227
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 360
  • Likes Given: 779
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1425 on: February 19, 2019, 02:40:26 AM »
I believe contracts for reserve capacity are also done with peaker plants, not just in Australia but also in the US.

SteveMDFP

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1144
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 82
  • Likes Given: 7
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1426 on: February 19, 2019, 04:40:48 AM »
I believe contracts for reserve capacity are also done with peaker plants, not just in Australia but also in the US.

Certainly, and it makes sense for all parties to pay for available reserve power, even if it doesn't get used.  Utilities have to be able to meet peak demand, or there are brownouts or blackouts.  There's a genuine need and economic value to this on-demand reserve. 

Sigmetnow

  • ASIF Emperor
  • Posts: 13593
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 175
  • Likes Given: 103
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1427 on: February 19, 2019, 03:12:38 PM »
From the above article:
Quote
Most of the revenue is still coming from the Powerpack system’s participation in FCAS (frequency control and ancillary services) market, which generally consisted of large and costly gas generators and steam turbines kicking in to compensate for the loss of power.

It’s important to understand that the battery’s FCAS abilities help to prevent the grid from going down on a ~daily basis, which is even more valuable than the extremely rare need to be the hours-long primary power-provider often imagined as the battery’s sole purpose.
« Last Edit: February 19, 2019, 03:19:09 PM by Sigmetnow »
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

GoSouthYoungins

  • ASIF Middle Class
  • Posts: 686
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 33
  • Likes Given: 106
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1428 on: February 19, 2019, 07:07:06 PM »
http://ir.tesla.com/sec-filings/sec-filing/10-k/0001564590-19-003165

Alright, 10K is out. And it is obvious that PwC is going to be playing the role of Arthur Andersen after signing off on all this nonsense. But let's see what Tesla admits to:

-Loan due at the end of Dec was extended to end of Jan on Dec 19th. On Jan 30th it was extended into April. (this is Solar City debt).

-There is still no Chinese funding. (And just FYI, there is nothing in built yet...just a muddy field.)

-Tesla claims to be on track with employing ppl at the Giga2. (Plain and egregious lie.)

-TESLA FINALLY ADMITS TO BEING UNDER BOTH SEC AND DOJ INVESTIGATION!!! (regardless of what Neil thinks.)

-$80 million in inventory was reclassified as Plant, Property, and Equipment in Q4. (Avoiding write-downs.)

-In December Tesla monetized over $300 million from some sort of solar asset to free up some cash. (Honestly, I don't understand the transaction, but it seems to be Tesla scrapping the bottom on the barrel for assets to collateralize for cash. In case anyone is unaware, they have pledged pretty much everything they "own" to creditors. My guess is that they took a loan backed by solar panels that are currently leased out. Total guess. If anyone knows more, please do tell.)


In other news:

-new estimates of Tesla US inventory have grown to over 10,000.

-it has become known that AutoPilot is actually more dangerous than no AutoPilot

-and in Q4 the largest institutional investor and the institutional investor with the highest price target BOTH sold half of their shares...(in general, something like 80% of the largest institutional investors reduced their holdings...like I have always said, it will be predominately Musk and his fanbois holding the bag when the stock price hits single digits and then TSLAQ)
« Last Edit: February 19, 2019, 07:27:48 PM by GoSouthYoungins »
big time oops

oren

  • ASIF Governor
  • Posts: 3227
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 360
  • Likes Given: 779
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1429 on: February 19, 2019, 10:24:18 PM »
Quote
In other news:

-new estimates of Tesla US inventory have grown to over 10,000.

-it has become known that AutoPilot is actually more dangerous than no AutoPilot
I have no knowledge of the other info you posted, but these two pieces are from FUD sources as far as I am aware, certainly the second one.

Sigmetnow

  • ASIF Emperor
  • Posts: 13593
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 175
  • Likes Given: 103
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1430 on: February 19, 2019, 10:31:10 PM »
On the Road to Full Autonomy With Elon Musk
https://ark-invest.com/research/podcast/elon-musk-podcast

Article and 30-minute ARK Invest podcast.  First ten minutes discuss numbers of EVs expected to 2023. Around minute 10, they begin discussing autonomy.  Musk says Tesla’s Full Self Driving features will be complete by the end of this year, but not yet fool-proof enough to roll out to customers.  Tesla’s fleet data capturing will allow the development of solutions for most of the remaining % of corner cases.  “Enough nines” should be attained by the end of next year — but, when regulators will permit it to be released is a different question.  Europe tends to be more conservative than the U.S. and China.
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

  • ASIF Emperor
  • Posts: 13593
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 175
  • Likes Given: 103
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1431 on: February 19, 2019, 10:37:35 PM »
Quote
In other news:

-new estimates of Tesla US inventory have grown to over 10,000.

-it has become known that AutoPilot is actually more dangerous than no AutoPilot
I have no knowledge of the other info you posted, but these two pieces are from FUD sources as far as I am aware, certainly the second one.

Probably the Shorty Air Force counting cars in parking lots again. ::)  Below, the Emerald Ace is picking up thousands of Teslas to take to China.

Edit: 
Fun fact: Tesla inventory includes vehicles in transit.
From the 10-k:
Quote
Our cash flows from operating activities are significantly affected by our cash investments to support the growth of our business in areas such as research and development and selling, general and administrative and working capital, especially inventory, which includes vehicles in transit.
« Last Edit: February 19, 2019, 11:19:59 PM by Sigmetnow »
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

  • ASIF Emperor
  • Posts: 13593
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 175
  • Likes Given: 103
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1432 on: February 19, 2019, 10:48:09 PM »
Here’s a less biased and more professional review of Tesla’s 10-k:

Here’s what Tesla is promising for 2019
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-what-tesla-is-promising-for-2019-2019-02-19
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

GoSouthYoungins

  • ASIF Middle Class
  • Posts: 686
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 33
  • Likes Given: 106
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1433 on: February 20, 2019, 12:44:19 AM »
Quote
In other news:

-new estimates of Tesla US inventory have grown to over 10,000.

-it has become known that AutoPilot is actually more dangerous than no AutoPilot
I have no knowledge of the other info you posted, but these two pieces are from FUD sources as far as I am aware, certainly the second one.

Bingo.

You honestly believe Bloomberg to be a organization of FUD? And Quality Control System Corporation is just FUD? Why have do their articles get published in scientific journals like Injury Prevention, The American Journal of Public Health, The New England Journal of Medicine? How have they managed to fool Scientific American into citing their research if they are just spewers of FUD?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-02-13/nhtsa-s-autopilot-claim-that-tesla-touted-disputed-in-new-study

http://www.thedrive.com/tech/26455/nhtsas-flawed-autopilot-safety-study-unmasked

Just out of curiosity, is the only litmus test for determining if something should be considered FUD that it is critical of Tesla? Cuz honestly, I see no other criteria being applied.


As for the 10,000+ vehicles...try basic logic. Tesla admits to having 7,000 in inventory at the end of the year (this doesn't include at least 2,000 which they reclassified as PP&E). Then the tax incentive dropped almost $4k. Tesla has had to drop prices already twice this year. (Helpful Econ 101 Hint: businesses tend to drop prices because inventory is not selling.) But if you don't wanna try out thinking for yourself, here:

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-02-19/cybersleuth-claims-uncover-over-10000-unsold-tesla-model-3s-us-inventory

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-demand-exclusive/exclusive-teslas-delivery-team-gutted-in-recent-job-cuts-sources-idUSKCN1PY00J

Conspiracy Alert:  Another interesting thing is that Musk has claimed that Boring Company wants to test its tunnels with 4,000 cars per hour. It would be very Muskian if SpaceX/Boring Company was buying thousands of cars from Tesla. (Nothing compares to the fraud that can be committed if you control multiple companies. Musk has used this trick before, but this time he can take it further because SpaceX/Boring is privately held.)

Fun fact: all of Musks wealth is paper wealth based on the value of Tesla and SpaceX. Thus, keeping their theoretical value high is EVERYTHING to Musk. SpaceX did a capital raise in Dec which was supposed to raise half a billion dollars valuing the company at just a $30B. (It only raised about half of its target.) The same day that the raise was announced, Musk mortgaged many of his homes to Morgan Stanley for almost $100 million. (Morgan Stanley is also who Musk has taken out something like a billion dollar loan from, collateralized by his Tesla shares.) It seems extremely likely that Musk took a loan against his homes to participate in the capital raise and try to substantiate the $30 billion valuation. I imagine he does the same with Tesla's stock price. Take a loan out against his shares, use the cash to bid up the price during super low volume trading times. I bet he also made at least 100,000 of the model 3 reservations (which at the time was to convince the board they had the future cash flow to be able to buy Solar City).

SpaceX has quite obviously run out of money (as has Musk personally, hence the mortgages). Not sure how else one can explain building a "rocket" out of foil that blows over in 50mph winds and crushes itself. That thing was obviously never going to fly. Musk tried to brush it off and claim it would be repaired in a few weeks. That plan seems to have been scrapped, cuz now they are just building a cap for the lower portion. It really is incredible. You can't make this stuff up. Musk, however, can (albeit likely with a lot of help from ambien, LSD, and 420).
big time oops

GoSouthYoungins

  • ASIF Middle Class
  • Posts: 686
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 33
  • Likes Given: 106
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1434 on: February 20, 2019, 12:56:09 AM »
On the Road to Full Autonomy With Elon Musk
https://ark-invest.com/research/podcast/elon-musk-podcast

Article and 30-minute ARK Invest podcast.  First ten minutes discuss numbers of EVs expected to 2023. Around minute 10, they begin discussing autonomy.  Musk says Tesla’s Full Self Driving features will be complete by the end of this year, but not yet fool-proof enough to roll out to customers.  Tesla’s fleet data capturing will allow the development of solutions for most of the remaining % of corner cases.  “Enough nines” should be attained by the end of next year — but, when regulators will permit it to be released is a different question.  Europe tends to be more conservative than the U.S. and China.

This is really shameful stuff. Do Cathie or Tasha discuss why they just cut their holdings in half if they are such big believers? Tesla AutoPilot is so far from "enough nines" that this sort of false advertising should see them all go to prison. Musk gives interviews with his hands off the wheel, and eyes off the road. He give official guidance in the conference call claiming that Tesla is "basically there" with FSD on highways. Yet when the Autopilot crashes and kills someone, Tesla claims that hands must be kept on the wheel at all times and the AP is just there to assist. It is CRIMINAL and extremely immoral.
« Last Edit: February 20, 2019, 02:07:00 AM by GoSouthYoungins »
big time oops

Sigmetnow

  • ASIF Emperor
  • Posts: 13593
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 175
  • Likes Given: 103
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1435 on: February 20, 2019, 02:01:06 AM »
Quote
Elon Musk (@elonmusk) 2/19/19, 7:02 PM
4000 Tesla cars loading in SF for Europe
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1098009983931707393
Tesla made 0 cars in 2011, but will make around 500k in 2019
Image below.

Edit:
Quote
Elon Musk (@elonmusk) 2/19/19, 11:41 PM
Meant to say annualized production rate at end of 2019 probably around 500k, ie 10k cars/week. Deliveries for year still estimated to be about 400k.
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1098080063801585664

It’s the Grand Venus (Roll On / Roll Off ship), headed for Zeebrugge!
« Last Edit: February 20, 2019, 05:01:28 PM by Sigmetnow »
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Tor Bejnar

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 2269
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 108
  • Likes Given: 36
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1436 on: February 20, 2019, 02:24:51 AM »
Only 10,000 Model 3s not sold???  Seems like there are 20,000 getting shipped overseas or just arrived there!
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

zizek

  • ASIF Citizen
  • Posts: 359
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 25
  • Likes Given: 9
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1437 on: February 20, 2019, 02:36:15 AM »
Quote
In other news:

-new estimates of Tesla US inventory have grown to over 10,000.

-it has become known that AutoPilot is actually more dangerous than no AutoPilot
I have no knowledge of the other info you posted, but these two pieces are from FUD sources as far as I am aware, certainly the second one.

What's the point of the Tesla Glory/Failure thread if nobody actually bothers to read any the negative Tesla articles
You actually replied directly to the post I linked the autopilot report:

https://arstechnica.com/cars/2019/02/in-2017-the-feds-said-tesla-autopilot-cut-crashes-40-that-was-bogus/


Quote
In 2017, the feds said Tesla Autopilot cut crashes 40%—that was bogus


Quote
But now NHTSA's raw data set is available, and, if anything, it appears to contradict Musk's claims. The majority of the vehicles in the Tesla data set suffered from missing data or other problems that made it impossible to say whether the activation of Autosteer increased or decreased the crash rate. But when QCS focused on 5,714 vehicles whose data didn't suffer from these problems, it found that the activation of Autosteer actually increased crash rates by 59 percent.

arstechnica is definitely not what I would classify as FUD. And if you can explain to me how this report:
http://www.safetyresearch.net/Library/NHTSA_Autosteer_Safety_Claim.pdf
is FUD.  I'll offer the same wager to Rob to you.  $50 dollars to an org of your choice. Prove to me how this report can be classified as fear, uncertainty, or doubt. Give me some evidence. We are on a science-based forum after all.

Or maybe I don't understand your definition of FUD. Is FUD simply anything that casts Musk and Tesla in a negative light, even if it exposes lies and dishonesty? Any criticism, no matter the implications nor the quality of evidence, is simply cast aside as FUD. Why don't we just take it a step further and have Neven moderate any negative Musk discussion. Sticky this thread and let sigmetnow post in peace.

I just don't understand your obsession with Tesla, Oren. You're clearly a smart person, and have your head on straight about climate change. But your brain just switches off when anything Tesla/Musk related comes up .


oren

  • ASIF Governor
  • Posts: 3227
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 360
  • Likes Given: 779
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1438 on: February 20, 2019, 04:01:26 AM »
Quote
In other news:
-it has become known that AutoPilot is actually more dangerous than no AutoPilot
I have no knowledge of the other info you posted, but these two pieces are from FUD sources as far as I am aware, certainly the second one.

https://arstechnica.com/cars/2019/02/in-2017-the-feds-said-tesla-autopilot-cut-crashes-40-that-was-bogus/
Quote
In 2017, the feds said Tesla Autopilot cut crashes 40%—that was bogus
Quote
But now NHTSA's raw data set is available, and, if anything, it appears to contradict Musk's claims. The majority of the vehicles in the Tesla data set suffered from missing data or other problems that made it impossible to say whether the activation of Autosteer increased or decreased the crash rate. But when QCS focused on 5,714 vehicles whose data didn't suffer from these problems, it found that the activation of Autosteer actually increased crash rates by 59 percent.

arstechnica is definitely not what I would classify as FUD. And if you can explain to me how this report:
http://www.safetyresearch.net/Library/NHTSA_Autosteer_Safety_Claim.pdf
is FUD.  I'll offer the same wager to Rob to you.  $50 dollars to an org of your choice. Prove to me how this report can be classified as fear, uncertainty, or doubt. Give me some evidence. We are on a science-based forum after all.
The report seems to follow scientific methodology though I have some criticism of it: for the claim quoted in arstechnica it takes only a 13% subset of the original data, and in the process discards quite a lot of useful though incomplete data. Checking this incomplete data as summarized in the report, shows that the 13% "complete" data is flawed as well, and that crash rates have not increased.
The report does prove that the NHTSA methodology was flawed, and that the conclusion that 2016 auto-steer reduced airbag deployment by 40% was wrong. It does not prove however that the crash rate increased. The data is simply not sufficient to conclude one way or the other.
The headlines reporting on the report have focused on a few lines from the report, not digging deeper, as headlines do. And selective reading of headlines did the rest. Your bolded conclusion above is plain wrong, not supported by the report.
Another detail that seems to have been forgotten, is that all the data is based on an old version of Auto-pilot, released in 2016 based on older hardware and much older software than is being released today with Tesla vehicles. Again, details, boring details. Does the current AP reduce crash rates? Who knows?
I haven't seen supporting data for Tesla's claim that AP reduces crash rates, as Tesla's recently released data is highly insufficient for that conclusion. However, the reverse conclusion is also not supported. So summarizing the situation with your bolded statement above, is, to me, FUD.

Lurk

  • ASIF Middle Class
  • Posts: 913
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 49
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1439 on: February 20, 2019, 04:36:18 AM »
Quote
In other news:

-new estimates of Tesla US inventory have grown to over 10,000.

-it has become known that AutoPilot is actually more dangerous than no AutoPilot
I have no knowledge of the other info you posted, but these two pieces are from FUD sources as far as I am aware, certainly the second one.

What's the point of the Tesla Glory/Failure thread if nobody actually bothers to read any the negative Tesla articles
You actually replied directly to the post I linked the autopilot report:

https://arstechnica.com/cars/2019/02/in-2017-the-feds-said-tesla-autopilot-cut-crashes-40-that-was-bogus/


Quote
In 2017, the feds said Tesla Autopilot cut crashes 40%—that was bogus


Quote
But now NHTSA's raw data set is available, and, if anything, it appears to contradict Musk's claims. The majority of the vehicles in the Tesla data set suffered from missing data or other problems that made it impossible to say whether the activation of Autosteer increased or decreased the crash rate. But when QCS focused on 5,714 vehicles whose data didn't suffer from these problems, it found that the activation of Autosteer actually increased crash rates by 59 percent.

arstechnica is definitely not what I would classify as FUD. And if you can explain to me how this report:
http://www.safetyresearch.net/Library/NHTSA_Autosteer_Safety_Claim.pdf
is FUD.  I'll offer the same wager to Rob to you.  $50 dollars to an org of your choice. Prove to me how this report can be classified as fear, uncertainty, or doubt. Give me some evidence. We are on a science-based forum after all.

Or maybe I don't understand your definition of FUD. Is FUD simply anything that casts Musk and Tesla in a negative light, even if it exposes lies and dishonesty? Any criticism, no matter the implications nor the quality of evidence, is simply cast aside as FUD. Why don't we just take it a step further and have Neven moderate any negative Musk discussion. Sticky this thread and let sigmetnow post in peace.

I just don't understand your obsession with Tesla, Oren. You're clearly a smart person, and have your head on straight about climate change. But your brain just switches off when anything Tesla/Musk related comes up .

I think you're missing the point zizek. There are hundreds of forum members who'd agree with you overall and who ignore this thread for good reasons. I did a scientific experiment by "testing the waters" to see what might show up only to find it poisoned beyond recovery. A waste of time iow.

All the facts data in the world will not make any difference to those who chose to argue the point with you. They don't care anyway and don't really think telsa will put a dint in agw/cc either nor make any real difference to anything else.   They just like to argue about issues that have nothing to do with telsa or evs. Sig seems to be stuck in the 2000s when reports about technical feasibility were more effective. Lost in the past iow. It used to be a barrier and now it's been swept away more or less leaving the really big important barriers more exposed. Rather than move on and address those unfortunately some here prefer to live in the past and keep up with old habits. Ever heard of big fish little pond? :)
"You assist an unjust administration most effectively by obeying its orders and decrees. [...] A good person will resist an evil system with his whole soul. Disobedience of the laws of an evil state is therefore a duty."
Mahatma Gandhi - Non-Violent Resistance

zizek

  • ASIF Citizen
  • Posts: 359
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 25
  • Likes Given: 9
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1440 on: February 20, 2019, 04:50:05 AM »
Quote
In other news:
-it has become known that AutoPilot is actually more dangerous than no AutoPilot
I have no knowledge of the other info you posted, but these two pieces are from FUD sources as far as I am aware, certainly the second one.

https://arstechnica.com/cars/2019/02/in-2017-the-feds-said-tesla-autopilot-cut-crashes-40-that-was-bogus/
Quote
In 2017, the feds said Tesla Autopilot cut crashes 40%—that was bogus
Quote
But now NHTSA's raw data set is available, and, if anything, it appears to contradict Musk's claims. The majority of the vehicles in the Tesla data set suffered from missing data or other problems that made it impossible to say whether the activation of Autosteer increased or decreased the crash rate. But when QCS focused on 5,714 vehicles whose data didn't suffer from these problems, it found that the activation of Autosteer actually increased crash rates by 59 percent.

arstechnica is definitely not what I would classify as FUD. And if you can explain to me how this report:
http://www.safetyresearch.net/Library/NHTSA_Autosteer_Safety_Claim.pdf
is FUD.  I'll offer the same wager to Rob to you.  $50 dollars to an org of your choice. Prove to me how this report can be classified as fear, uncertainty, or doubt. Give me some evidence. We are on a science-based forum after all.
The report seems to follow scientific methodology though I have some criticism of it: for the claim quoted in arstechnica it takes only a 13% subset of the original data, and in the process discards quite a lot of useful though incomplete data. Checking this incomplete data as summarized in the report, shows that the 13% "complete" data is flawed as well, and that crash rates have not increased.
The report does prove that the NHTSA methodology was flawed, and that the conclusion that 2016 auto-steer reduced airbag deployment by 40% was wrong. It does not prove however that the crash rate increased. The data is simply not sufficient to conclude one way or the other.
The headlines reporting on the report have focused on a few lines from the report, not digging deeper, as headlines do. And selective reading of headlines did the rest. Your bolded conclusion above is plain wrong, not supported by the report.
Another detail that seems to have been forgotten, is that all the data is based on an old version of Auto-pilot, released in 2016 based on older hardware and much older software than is being released today with Tesla vehicles. Again, details, boring details. Does the current AP reduce crash rates? Who knows?
I haven't seen supporting data for Tesla's claim that AP reduces crash rates, as Tesla's recently released data is highly insufficient for that conclusion. However, the reverse conclusion is also not supported. So summarizing the situation with your bolded statement above, is, to me, FUD.
Stop your bullshit. Stop moving the goal posts. At first you were willing to take anything Tesla and the NHTSA said at face value. And now, a 13% sample of the data is not good enough to draw any reasonable conclusions? What hell is that? I didn't know you were such an expert in vehicle collision safety. Can you please explain to the class why 5,700 vehicles is not good enough for you? Especially considering it's the only data we can go by?

And your excuse that the technology is old doesn't hold up. Because Tesla stood behind the report, and did everything they could do to make sure the raw data was never released. So if things got better, why don't they just release another report based off of their new technology? Give us the data? Although, considering how much they lie, I wouldn't doubt it if the data would be fudged.

Here's the page from the report that Oren likes to call FUD FUD FUD FUD FUD FUD. Since you monkeys here don't actually like to read any links:


Quote
Once we received the data,20 we attempted to replicate NHTSA’s summaries21 of airbag deployments as well as mileage exposure before and after Autosteer in- stallation. We expected that the “Miles before Autosteer” exposure measure cal- culated by NHTSA would be equal to “Previous Mileage before Autosteer In- stall” reported by Tesla when mileage had been accumulated before Autosteer was installed. It was also our expectation that exposure “Miles after Autosteer” calculated by NHTSA would be equal to “The mileage of the vehicle at the last data retrieval” minus “Next Mileage after Autosteer Install” reported by Tesla when these data were not unknown, unreported, or otherwise missing for all of the vehicles studied.

In those cases where the “Previous Mileage before Autosteer Install” exactly equals “Next Mileage after Autosteer Install,” it can be inferred that Autosteer was actually installed at the reported mileage in each of these two fields. Figure 1 illustrates the calculation of exposure mileage in the cohort of vehicles where the odometer data at the time of installation is known, based on this inference. (Note that the mileage of the vehicle at the last data retrieval must also have been reported for the vehicles in Figure 1.) This method of calculation of exposure mileage was applicable only to 5,714 vehicles of the total 43,781 vehicles studied, 13 percent.22

Based on the data for crash rate numerators and denominators shown in Figure 1, the resulting calculations reveal a 59 percent increase in the airbag deployment crash rate from 0.76 per million miles of travel to 1.21 per million miles of travel following the installation of Autosteer. As explained below, this result is particu- larly important because it is the only vehicle cohort in the study with complete information for both before and after Autosteer crash rate calculations. Before and after comparisons of the resulting crash rates are unbiased by missing data for exposure mileage because there are no missing data in this subset of the data. This finding is the just the opposite of that claimed by NHTSA for the larger set of vehicles they studied.

We used logistic regression to measure the practical and statistical significance of Autosteer to this apparent difference in crash rates. Because the data do not re- cord the mileage at which an airbag deployed, we employed a method that trans- formed the dataset of 5,714 vehicles into two equal sized segments, “before” and “after” Autosteer. (In the transformed dataset of 11,428 observations, 3 cases have missing data where the last mileage retrieved is reported to equal the “Next mileage after Autosteer installation”). Each observation in the new dataset can be understood as a segment of exposure miles that either did or did not result in
 
an airbag deployment crash. Each observation contained the independent vari- ables, total “Exposure mileage” for the segment, “Autosteer installed” (equals 1 if so, zero otherwise), as well as the dependent variable of “Airbag deployed.”

The model estimated from these specific data helps to answer the question con- cerning NHTSA’s safety claim about Autosteer, “Is the installation of Autosteer associated with a decreased risk of an airbag deployment crash, controlling for exposure mileage?” The answer is “No.”

Table 1 demonstrates that Autosteer is actually associated with an increase in the odds ratio of airbag deployment by more than a factor of 2.4 (95% Confidence Interval: 1.57 - 3.8), when exposure mileage is taken into account. See Table 1.


zizek

  • ASIF Citizen
  • Posts: 359
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 25
  • Likes Given: 9
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1441 on: February 20, 2019, 04:54:53 AM »
Quote
In other news:

-new estimates of Tesla US inventory have grown to over 10,000.

-it has become known that AutoPilot is actually more dangerous than no AutoPilot
I have no knowledge of the other info you posted, but these two pieces are from FUD sources as far as I am aware, certainly the second one.

What's the point of the Tesla Glory/Failure thread if nobody actually bothers to read any the negative Tesla articles
You actually replied directly to the post I linked the autopilot report:

https://arstechnica.com/cars/2019/02/in-2017-the-feds-said-tesla-autopilot-cut-crashes-40-that-was-bogus/


Quote
In 2017, the feds said Tesla Autopilot cut crashes 40%—that was bogus


Quote
But now NHTSA's raw data set is available, and, if anything, it appears to contradict Musk's claims. The majority of the vehicles in the Tesla data set suffered from missing data or other problems that made it impossible to say whether the activation of Autosteer increased or decreased the crash rate. But when QCS focused on 5,714 vehicles whose data didn't suffer from these problems, it found that the activation of Autosteer actually increased crash rates by 59 percent.

arstechnica is definitely not what I would classify as FUD. And if you can explain to me how this report:
http://www.safetyresearch.net/Library/NHTSA_Autosteer_Safety_Claim.pdf
is FUD.  I'll offer the same wager to Rob to you.  $50 dollars to an org of your choice. Prove to me how this report can be classified as fear, uncertainty, or doubt. Give me some evidence. We are on a science-based forum after all.

Or maybe I don't understand your definition of FUD. Is FUD simply anything that casts Musk and Tesla in a negative light, even if it exposes lies and dishonesty? Any criticism, no matter the implications nor the quality of evidence, is simply cast aside as FUD. Why don't we just take it a step further and have Neven moderate any negative Musk discussion. Sticky this thread and let sigmetnow post in peace.

I just don't understand your obsession with Tesla, Oren. You're clearly a smart person, and have your head on straight about climate change. But your brain just switches off when anything Tesla/Musk related comes up .

I think you're missing the point zizek. There are hundreds of forum members who'd agree with you overall and who ignore this thread for good reasons. I did a scientific experiment by "testing the waters" to see what might show up only to find it poisoned beyond recovery. A waste of time iow.

All the facts data in the world will not make any difference to those who chose to argue the point with you. They don't care anyway and don't really think telsa will put a dint in agw/cc either nor make any real difference to anything else.   They just like to argue about issues that have nothing to do with telsa or evs. Sig seems to be stuck in the 2000s when reports about technical feasibility were more effective. Lost in the past iow. It used to be a barrier and now it's been swept away more or less leaving the really big important barriers more exposed. Rather than move on and address those unfortunately some here prefer to live in the past and keep up with old habits. Ever heard of big fish little pond? :)


Yeah, you're right.  Lately, I've been blocking this forum in my browser because every time I come here I just get frustrated and lose focus from my other work. But, I always find myself scratching the itch to see if anybody has learned any lessons. Nope.  Maybe I have to find a way to block myself from coming here for good. It will do me a lot of good.

oren

  • ASIF Governor
  • Posts: 3227
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 360
  • Likes Given: 779
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1442 on: February 20, 2019, 06:57:43 AM »
At first you were willing to take anything Tesla and the NHTSA said at face value.
Not true.
Quote
And now, a 13% sample of the data is not good enough to draw any reasonable conclusions? What hell is that? I didn't know you were such an expert in vehicle collision safety. Can you please explain to the class why 5,700 vehicles is not good enough for you? Especially considering it's the only data we can go by?
Table 2 in the report will easily explain why the NHTSA methodology was wrong, but also why the opposite conclusion is not true as well, and why the discarded data shows that the kept data is problematic as well.
Fig.1 is the kept data, that is supposedly totally accurate. It has 0.76 deployments/million miles before auto-steer, and 1.21 dep/mil after auto-steer, so supposedly an increase in deployments after auto-steer.
Figs. 2,3,4 contain the discarded data, where the NHTSA did not assign proper mileage to the before category, and in parts of the data also to the after category. However, it is easy to see that the rates of deployment for the after category are in the range of 0.6-0.8 dep/mil, thereby showing that the result of the kept subset wherein the after rate was 1.21 dep/mil is out of line, and probably suffers from data errors/biases as well, errors that the report failed to consider in its assumptions.
The best conclusion from the partial and faulty data is that the airbag deployment rate was and still remained ~0.7-0.8 deployments/million miles before and after auto-steer.
Note: I do get the feeling that the report writer was happy not to stress this conclusion clearly, as the resulting headlines would have been much less juicy.
Note 2: I believe Tesla is releasing uninformative safety data, while making various statistical safety claims based on said data. Without access to the underlying detailed data it is impossible to verify Tesla's claims, and I suspect Tesla's claims are based on conveniently faulty analysis. (To be clear, this also was my thinking before this report came along).

GoSouthYoungins

  • ASIF Middle Class
  • Posts: 686
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 33
  • Likes Given: 106
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1443 on: February 20, 2019, 03:11:05 PM »
Tesla's old general counsel was Musk's divorce lawyer, which is insane. But they hired a new guy who was actually really legit. He is quitting after 2 months. Hmmm....

Tesla can't keep a serious CFO, CAO, or General Counsel. Won't raise capital that they desperately need. Admit to being under SEC and DOJ investigation. Nothing to see here, move along. Blahahahahaha. It really is sad how naive the Tesla bulls are. Go Long!
big time oops

Sigmetnow

  • ASIF Emperor
  • Posts: 13593
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 175
  • Likes Given: 103
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1444 on: February 20, 2019, 03:36:00 PM »
Quote
Elon Musk (@elonmusk) 2/19/19, 7:02 PM
4000 Tesla cars loading in SF for Europe
...

< Do they load themselves?

Elon Musk (@elonmusk)
2/19/19, 7:17 PM
Won’t be long before they do
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1098013621924184064
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

GoSouthYoungins

  • ASIF Middle Class
  • Posts: 686
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 33
  • Likes Given: 106
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1445 on: February 20, 2019, 03:41:29 PM »
Quote
Elon Musk (@elonmusk) 2/19/19, 7:02 PM
4000 Tesla cars loading in SF for Europe
...

< Do they load themselves?

Elon Musk (@elonmusk)
2/19/19, 7:17 PM
Won’t be long before they do
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1098013621924184064

100% unaffected by non-stop, over-the-top, instantly-disprovable LIES. <snip, N.>
« Last Edit: February 22, 2019, 05:18:57 PM by Neven »
big time oops

GoSouthYoungins

  • ASIF Middle Class
  • Posts: 686
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 33
  • Likes Given: 106
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1446 on: February 20, 2019, 03:56:29 PM »
NielT, you seem to think yourself pretty solid at understanding the big-time corporate world. Help me understand the following...

Tesla in the past 2 years has had resign 2 CFOs, 2 CAOs, 5 Finance VPs, and the Treasurer (as well as 2 General Counsels). In none of those positions is there currently someone well respected with recent high-level experience. Both times that Tesla did bring in someone from outside the company with a decent amount of credibility (most recent CAO and General Counsel), they quit almost immediately (one month and two months, respectively). 


If you are going to say it is because Tesla is "agile", please to explain how that applies in some serious detail, cuz it does not seem to make any sense to me. Do you honestly believe that it is not possible that it has something to do with the SEC and DOJ investiations / why they haven't been raising capital (AKA "The Secret")?
big time oops

GoSouthYoungins

  • ASIF Middle Class
  • Posts: 686
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 33
  • Likes Given: 106
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1447 on: February 20, 2019, 04:51:58 PM »
Okay, I think the big week is finally here. Tesla is out of money. And they are, drum roll please.............. going to try to raise capital(or at least announce that they are). Unexpected developments in the last 48 hours include: 10-K release, $4000 SP podcast, 500k annual production tweet, "Standard Range Soon" language disappears from website, General Counsel resignation.  Next week there is a really really big bill due, and I think the only chance they have is to roll it over, and the only chance of that is if they are bringing in more capital. Very interesting. All the fireworks could happen in the next 2 weeks. Could be nothing though.
big time oops

Sigmetnow

  • ASIF Emperor
  • Posts: 13593
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 175
  • Likes Given: 103
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1448 on: February 20, 2019, 07:03:00 PM »
Getting ahead of the whole OMG-somebody-else-just-left-Tesla freakout:

Have you read the Maxwell-Tesla SEC S-4 Filing?  The pace of events in December and January for the merger was insane!
http://ir.tesla.com/node/19506/html#toc625340_52

Dane Butswinkas was a trial lawyer from D.C. who had worked for Tesla as outside counsel.   He became Tesla General Counsel in December; was immediately faced with very big, very intense Maxwell merger event.  He is now returning to his D.C. trial lawyer position, but remains as Tesla outside counsel. 
Pretty hard to see anything other than that Tesla General Counsel was simply not a good fit for him.

https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-tsla-general-counsel/

“A person familiar with the matter said Butswinkas was not a good cultural fit with Tesla and wanted to return to his family and law practice in Washington, D.C.”
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2019/02/20/tesla-is-going-to-be-the-next-amazon-says-major-shareholder.html
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

GoSouthYoungins

  • ASIF Middle Class
  • Posts: 686
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 33
  • Likes Given: 106
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1449 on: February 21, 2019, 02:16:15 AM »
Getting ahead of the whole OMG-somebody-else-just-left-Tesla freakout:

Have you read the Maxwell-Tesla SEC S-4 Filing?  The pace of events in December and January for the merger was insane!
http://ir.tesla.com/node/19506/html#toc625340_52

Dane Butswinkas was a trial lawyer from D.C. who had worked for Tesla as outside counsel.   He became Tesla General Counsel in December; was immediately faced with very big, very intense Maxwell merger event.  He is now returning to his D.C. trial lawyer position, but remains as Tesla outside counsel. 
Pretty hard to see anything other than that Tesla General Counsel was simply not a good fit for him.

https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-tsla-general-counsel/

“A person familiar with the matter said Butswinkas was not a good cultural fit with Tesla and wanted to return to his family and law practice in Washington, D.C.”
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2019/02/20/tesla-is-going-to-be-the-next-amazon-says-major-shareholder.html

So basically your answer for all the rapid resignations is just that these ppl were naive about what they were getting themselves into? The idea that Dane Butswinkas was not expecting something as taxing as a quarter billion dollar acquisition while being GC for a $50B company is incredulous.

And why can't any of the positions be filled by credible and experienced outsiders? Does it take a "Tesla person" to do a "Tesla job"? Literally no high level person in the world is available and capable and willing to fill these lucrative positions? Ha! Try again.


Also, I highly doubt you read the filing you are referring to. If you did, WHY?!?

Another also, I don't think he became GC in December. It was announced in December. I think he started late Jan. Not sure though. If you have better info (as weird as that would be), do share.
big time oops