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Rob Dekker

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1400 on: February 18, 2019, 08:17:45 AM »

So good job zizek, good job lurk, and good job Rob ... winners one and all.

Anyone want to buy a new electric car from us? You can trust us. We all do Math much better than Elon Musk can.

ROFL

Looks to me like the totals at the bottom of the pages are static and the total at the top is dynamic.

We have no idea how old the figures in the tables are to know how they relate, but as one set has half the value of the other then it seems pretty obvious which page is more recent and which one hasn't been kept up to date.

The lbs were changed from a multiple of 1000 to a multiple of 2200. Those numbers are pretty convenient

Are you and Lurk in Canada ?
Because I can't see the "https://www.tesla.com/en_CA/carbonimpact" web site.
It just forwards to https://www.tesla.com/carbonimpact.

But from the 'cached' sites, I see that that Canadian web site incorrectly prints 'lbs' where it should print 'kg'. I've sent email to Tesla about this.
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BeeKnees

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1401 on: February 18, 2019, 02:23:41 PM »
Are you and Lurk in Canada ?
Because I can't see the "https://www.tesla.com/en_CA/carbonimpact" web site.
It just forwards to https://www.tesla.com/carbonimpact.

But from the 'cached' sites, I see that that Canadian web site incorrectly prints 'lbs' where it should print 'kg'. I've sent email to Tesla about this.

You can see the first link if you go incognito and prevent tesla from picking up location

magnamentis

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1402 on: February 18, 2019, 10:02:34 PM »
in memory of the recent audi e-tron test that came up with a range of >300km at temps of -6C, wet roads, party and heated cabin to comfort levels, the first test of a tesla 3 by "Auto-Motor & Sport", the leading german car testing etc. magazine, came up with a range of 276 km as compared to the 530km WLTP mark at temperatures of around 5C, damp but not wet roads etc. for the rest that first test went well, i just wanted to mention this shortly to point at the huge difference between cold an warm conditions and that in mind the e-tron should easily reach his goal of over 400km at the 23C temps that are grounds for WLTP measurements.

there will soon be more, especially thorough over all tests and comparison with comparable ICE vehicles as well as durability etc. i'll keep an eye on it because german magazines apply very high standards to sometimes even IMO minor details, hence it won't take long until we get a first really indicating comparison of model 3 with cars we are used to and learn to love, tech, comfort and reliability wise.
« Last Edit: February 18, 2019, 10:14:37 PM by magnamentis »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1403 on: February 19, 2019, 12:28:56 AM »
Not a fraud.  Not a scam.  Generated about $4.5 million in revenue for its owners during the fourth quarter by helping to balance the freaking power grid!

Tesla's big battery in Australia made another $4 million on its way to pay for itself
Quote
The government also participated in the funding and they shouldn’t be disappointed in their investment since a recent report showed that the project saved $40 million on the energy during its first year of operation alone.
https://electrek.co/2019/02/18/tesla-big-battery-pay-for-itself/
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oren

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1404 on: February 19, 2019, 02:40:26 AM »
I believe contracts for reserve capacity are also done with peaker plants, not just in Australia but also in the US.

SteveMDFP

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1405 on: February 19, 2019, 04:40:48 AM »
I believe contracts for reserve capacity are also done with peaker plants, not just in Australia but also in the US.

Certainly, and it makes sense for all parties to pay for available reserve power, even if it doesn't get used.  Utilities have to be able to meet peak demand, or there are brownouts or blackouts.  There's a genuine need and economic value to this on-demand reserve. 

Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1406 on: February 19, 2019, 03:12:38 PM »
From the above article:
Quote
Most of the revenue is still coming from the Powerpack system’s participation in FCAS (frequency control and ancillary services) market, which generally consisted of large and costly gas generators and steam turbines kicking in to compensate for the loss of power.

It’s important to understand that the battery’s FCAS abilities help to prevent the grid from going down on a ~daily basis, which is even more valuable than the extremely rare need to be the hours-long primary power-provider often imagined as the battery’s sole purpose.
« Last Edit: February 19, 2019, 03:19:09 PM by Sigmetnow »
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GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1407 on: February 19, 2019, 07:07:06 PM »
http://ir.tesla.com/sec-filings/sec-filing/10-k/0001564590-19-003165

Alright, 10K is out. And it is obvious that PwC is going to be playing the role of Arthur Andersen after signing off on all this nonsense. But let's see what Tesla admits to:

-Loan due at the end of Dec was extended to end of Jan on Dec 19th. On Jan 30th it was extended into April. (this is Solar City debt).

-There is still no Chinese funding. (And just FYI, there is nothing in built yet...just a muddy field.)

-Tesla claims to be on track with employing ppl at the Giga2. (Plain and egregious lie.)

-TESLA FINALLY ADMITS TO BEING UNDER BOTH SEC AND DOJ INVESTIGATION!!! (regardless of what Neil thinks.)

-$80 million in inventory was reclassified as Plant, Property, and Equipment in Q4. (Avoiding write-downs.)

-In December Tesla monetized over $300 million from some sort of solar asset to free up some cash. (Honestly, I don't understand the transaction, but it seems to be Tesla scrapping the bottom on the barrel for assets to collateralize for cash. In case anyone is unaware, they have pledged pretty much everything they "own" to creditors. My guess is that they took a loan backed by solar panels that are currently leased out. Total guess. If anyone knows more, please do tell.)


In other news:

-new estimates of Tesla US inventory have grown to over 10,000.

-it has become known that AutoPilot is actually more dangerous than no AutoPilot

-and in Q4 the largest institutional investor and the institutional investor with the highest price target BOTH sold half of their shares...(in general, something like 80% of the largest institutional investors reduced their holdings...like I have always said, it will be predominately Musk and his fanbois holding the bag when the stock price hits single digits and then TSLAQ)
« Last Edit: February 19, 2019, 07:27:48 PM by GoSouthYoungins »
big time oops

oren

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1408 on: February 19, 2019, 10:24:18 PM »
Quote
In other news:

-new estimates of Tesla US inventory have grown to over 10,000.

-it has become known that AutoPilot is actually more dangerous than no AutoPilot
I have no knowledge of the other info you posted, but these two pieces are from FUD sources as far as I am aware, certainly the second one.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1409 on: February 19, 2019, 10:31:10 PM »
On the Road to Full Autonomy With Elon Musk
https://ark-invest.com/research/podcast/elon-musk-podcast

Article and 30-minute ARK Invest podcast.  First ten minutes discuss numbers of EVs expected to 2023. Around minute 10, they begin discussing autonomy.  Musk says Tesla’s Full Self Driving features will be complete by the end of this year, but not yet fool-proof enough to roll out to customers.  Tesla’s fleet data capturing will allow the development of solutions for most of the remaining % of corner cases.  “Enough nines” should be attained by the end of next year — but, when regulators will permit it to be released is a different question.  Europe tends to be more conservative than the U.S. and China.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1410 on: February 19, 2019, 10:37:35 PM »
Quote
In other news:

-new estimates of Tesla US inventory have grown to over 10,000.

-it has become known that AutoPilot is actually more dangerous than no AutoPilot
I have no knowledge of the other info you posted, but these two pieces are from FUD sources as far as I am aware, certainly the second one.

Probably the Shorty Air Force counting cars in parking lots again. ::)  Below, the Emerald Ace is picking up thousands of Teslas to take to China.

Edit: 
Fun fact: Tesla inventory includes vehicles in transit.
From the 10-k:
Quote
Our cash flows from operating activities are significantly affected by our cash investments to support the growth of our business in areas such as research and development and selling, general and administrative and working capital, especially inventory, which includes vehicles in transit.
« Last Edit: February 19, 2019, 11:19:59 PM by Sigmetnow »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1411 on: February 19, 2019, 10:48:09 PM »
Here’s a less biased and more professional review of Tesla’s 10-k:

Here’s what Tesla is promising for 2019
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-what-tesla-is-promising-for-2019-2019-02-19
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GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1412 on: February 20, 2019, 12:44:19 AM »
Quote
In other news:

-new estimates of Tesla US inventory have grown to over 10,000.

-it has become known that AutoPilot is actually more dangerous than no AutoPilot
I have no knowledge of the other info you posted, but these two pieces are from FUD sources as far as I am aware, certainly the second one.

Bingo.

You honestly believe Bloomberg to be a organization of FUD? And Quality Control System Corporation is just FUD? Why have do their articles get published in scientific journals like Injury Prevention, The American Journal of Public Health, The New England Journal of Medicine? How have they managed to fool Scientific American into citing their research if they are just spewers of FUD?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-02-13/nhtsa-s-autopilot-claim-that-tesla-touted-disputed-in-new-study

http://www.thedrive.com/tech/26455/nhtsas-flawed-autopilot-safety-study-unmasked

Just out of curiosity, is the only litmus test for determining if something should be considered FUD that it is critical of Tesla? Cuz honestly, I see no other criteria being applied.


As for the 10,000+ vehicles...try basic logic. Tesla admits to having 7,000 in inventory at the end of the year (this doesn't include at least 2,000 which they reclassified as PP&E). Then the tax incentive dropped almost $4k. Tesla has had to drop prices already twice this year. (Helpful Econ 101 Hint: businesses tend to drop prices because inventory is not selling.) But if you don't wanna try out thinking for yourself, here:

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-02-19/cybersleuth-claims-uncover-over-10000-unsold-tesla-model-3s-us-inventory

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-demand-exclusive/exclusive-teslas-delivery-team-gutted-in-recent-job-cuts-sources-idUSKCN1PY00J

Conspiracy Alert:  Another interesting thing is that Musk has claimed that Boring Company wants to test its tunnels with 4,000 cars per hour. It would be very Muskian if SpaceX/Boring Company was buying thousands of cars from Tesla. (Nothing compares to the fraud that can be committed if you control multiple companies. Musk has used this trick before, but this time he can take it further because SpaceX/Boring is privately held.)

Fun fact: all of Musks wealth is paper wealth based on the value of Tesla and SpaceX. Thus, keeping their theoretical value high is EVERYTHING to Musk. SpaceX did a capital raise in Dec which was supposed to raise half a billion dollars valuing the company at just a $30B. (It only raised about half of its target.) The same day that the raise was announced, Musk mortgaged many of his homes to Morgan Stanley for almost $100 million. (Morgan Stanley is also who Musk has taken out something like a billion dollar loan from, collateralized by his Tesla shares.) It seems extremely likely that Musk took a loan against his homes to participate in the capital raise and try to substantiate the $30 billion valuation. I imagine he does the same with Tesla's stock price. Take a loan out against his shares, use the cash to bid up the price during super low volume trading times. I bet he also made at least 100,000 of the model 3 reservations (which at the time was to convince the board they had the future cash flow to be able to buy Solar City).

SpaceX has quite obviously run out of money (as has Musk personally, hence the mortgages). Not sure how else one can explain building a "rocket" out of foil that blows over in 50mph winds and crushes itself. That thing was obviously never going to fly. Musk tried to brush it off and claim it would be repaired in a few weeks. That plan seems to have been scrapped, cuz now they are just building a cap for the lower portion. It really is incredible. You can't make this stuff up. Musk, however, can (albeit likely with a lot of help from ambien, LSD, and 420).
big time oops

GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1413 on: February 20, 2019, 12:56:09 AM »
On the Road to Full Autonomy With Elon Musk
https://ark-invest.com/research/podcast/elon-musk-podcast

Article and 30-minute ARK Invest podcast.  First ten minutes discuss numbers of EVs expected to 2023. Around minute 10, they begin discussing autonomy.  Musk says Tesla’s Full Self Driving features will be complete by the end of this year, but not yet fool-proof enough to roll out to customers.  Tesla’s fleet data capturing will allow the development of solutions for most of the remaining % of corner cases.  “Enough nines” should be attained by the end of next year — but, when regulators will permit it to be released is a different question.  Europe tends to be more conservative than the U.S. and China.

This is really shameful stuff. Do Cathie or Tasha discuss why they just cut their holdings in half if they are such big believers? Tesla AutoPilot is so far from "enough nines" that this sort of false advertising should see them all go to prison. Musk gives interviews with his hands off the wheel, and eyes off the road. He give official guidance in the conference call claiming that Tesla is "basically there" with FSD on highways. Yet when the Autopilot crashes and kills someone, Tesla claims that hands must be kept on the wheel at all times and the AP is just there to assist. It is CRIMINAL and extremely immoral.
« Last Edit: February 20, 2019, 02:07:00 AM by GoSouthYoungins »
big time oops

Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1414 on: February 20, 2019, 02:01:06 AM »
Quote
Elon Musk (@elonmusk) 2/19/19, 7:02 PM
4000 Tesla cars loading in SF for Europe
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1098009983931707393
Tesla made 0 cars in 2011, but will make around 500k in 2019
Image below.

Edit:
Quote
Elon Musk (@elonmusk) 2/19/19, 11:41 PM
Meant to say annualized production rate at end of 2019 probably around 500k, ie 10k cars/week. Deliveries for year still estimated to be about 400k.
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1098080063801585664

It’s the Grand Venus (Roll On / Roll Off ship), headed for Zeebrugge!
« Last Edit: February 20, 2019, 05:01:28 PM by Sigmetnow »
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1415 on: February 20, 2019, 02:24:51 AM »
Only 10,000 Model 3s not sold???  Seems like there are 20,000 getting shipped overseas or just arrived there!
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zizek

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1416 on: February 20, 2019, 02:36:15 AM »
Quote
In other news:

-new estimates of Tesla US inventory have grown to over 10,000.

-it has become known that AutoPilot is actually more dangerous than no AutoPilot
I have no knowledge of the other info you posted, but these two pieces are from FUD sources as far as I am aware, certainly the second one.

What's the point of the Tesla Glory/Failure thread if nobody actually bothers to read any the negative Tesla articles
You actually replied directly to the post I linked the autopilot report:

https://arstechnica.com/cars/2019/02/in-2017-the-feds-said-tesla-autopilot-cut-crashes-40-that-was-bogus/


Quote
In 2017, the feds said Tesla Autopilot cut crashes 40%—that was bogus


Quote
But now NHTSA's raw data set is available, and, if anything, it appears to contradict Musk's claims. The majority of the vehicles in the Tesla data set suffered from missing data or other problems that made it impossible to say whether the activation of Autosteer increased or decreased the crash rate. But when QCS focused on 5,714 vehicles whose data didn't suffer from these problems, it found that the activation of Autosteer actually increased crash rates by 59 percent.

arstechnica is definitely not what I would classify as FUD. And if you can explain to me how this report:
http://www.safetyresearch.net/Library/NHTSA_Autosteer_Safety_Claim.pdf
is FUD.  I'll offer the same wager to Rob to you.  $50 dollars to an org of your choice. Prove to me how this report can be classified as fear, uncertainty, or doubt. Give me some evidence. We are on a science-based forum after all.

Or maybe I don't understand your definition of FUD. Is FUD simply anything that casts Musk and Tesla in a negative light, even if it exposes lies and dishonesty? Any criticism, no matter the implications nor the quality of evidence, is simply cast aside as FUD. Why don't we just take it a step further and have Neven moderate any negative Musk discussion. Sticky this thread and let sigmetnow post in peace.

I just don't understand your obsession with Tesla, Oren. You're clearly a smart person, and have your head on straight about climate change. But your brain just switches off when anything Tesla/Musk related comes up .


oren

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1417 on: February 20, 2019, 04:01:26 AM »
Quote
In other news:
-it has become known that AutoPilot is actually more dangerous than no AutoPilot
I have no knowledge of the other info you posted, but these two pieces are from FUD sources as far as I am aware, certainly the second one.

https://arstechnica.com/cars/2019/02/in-2017-the-feds-said-tesla-autopilot-cut-crashes-40-that-was-bogus/
Quote
In 2017, the feds said Tesla Autopilot cut crashes 40%—that was bogus
Quote
But now NHTSA's raw data set is available, and, if anything, it appears to contradict Musk's claims. The majority of the vehicles in the Tesla data set suffered from missing data or other problems that made it impossible to say whether the activation of Autosteer increased or decreased the crash rate. But when QCS focused on 5,714 vehicles whose data didn't suffer from these problems, it found that the activation of Autosteer actually increased crash rates by 59 percent.

arstechnica is definitely not what I would classify as FUD. And if you can explain to me how this report:
http://www.safetyresearch.net/Library/NHTSA_Autosteer_Safety_Claim.pdf
is FUD.  I'll offer the same wager to Rob to you.  $50 dollars to an org of your choice. Prove to me how this report can be classified as fear, uncertainty, or doubt. Give me some evidence. We are on a science-based forum after all.
The report seems to follow scientific methodology though I have some criticism of it: for the claim quoted in arstechnica it takes only a 13% subset of the original data, and in the process discards quite a lot of useful though incomplete data. Checking this incomplete data as summarized in the report, shows that the 13% "complete" data is flawed as well, and that crash rates have not increased.
The report does prove that the NHTSA methodology was flawed, and that the conclusion that 2016 auto-steer reduced airbag deployment by 40% was wrong. It does not prove however that the crash rate increased. The data is simply not sufficient to conclude one way or the other.
The headlines reporting on the report have focused on a few lines from the report, not digging deeper, as headlines do. And selective reading of headlines did the rest. Your bolded conclusion above is plain wrong, not supported by the report.
Another detail that seems to have been forgotten, is that all the data is based on an old version of Auto-pilot, released in 2016 based on older hardware and much older software than is being released today with Tesla vehicles. Again, details, boring details. Does the current AP reduce crash rates? Who knows?
I haven't seen supporting data for Tesla's claim that AP reduces crash rates, as Tesla's recently released data is highly insufficient for that conclusion. However, the reverse conclusion is also not supported. So summarizing the situation with your bolded statement above, is, to me, FUD.

Lurk

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1418 on: February 20, 2019, 04:36:18 AM »
Quote
In other news:

-new estimates of Tesla US inventory have grown to over 10,000.

-it has become known that AutoPilot is actually more dangerous than no AutoPilot
I have no knowledge of the other info you posted, but these two pieces are from FUD sources as far as I am aware, certainly the second one.

What's the point of the Tesla Glory/Failure thread if nobody actually bothers to read any the negative Tesla articles
You actually replied directly to the post I linked the autopilot report:

https://arstechnica.com/cars/2019/02/in-2017-the-feds-said-tesla-autopilot-cut-crashes-40-that-was-bogus/


Quote
In 2017, the feds said Tesla Autopilot cut crashes 40%—that was bogus


Quote
But now NHTSA's raw data set is available, and, if anything, it appears to contradict Musk's claims. The majority of the vehicles in the Tesla data set suffered from missing data or other problems that made it impossible to say whether the activation of Autosteer increased or decreased the crash rate. But when QCS focused on 5,714 vehicles whose data didn't suffer from these problems, it found that the activation of Autosteer actually increased crash rates by 59 percent.

arstechnica is definitely not what I would classify as FUD. And if you can explain to me how this report:
http://www.safetyresearch.net/Library/NHTSA_Autosteer_Safety_Claim.pdf
is FUD.  I'll offer the same wager to Rob to you.  $50 dollars to an org of your choice. Prove to me how this report can be classified as fear, uncertainty, or doubt. Give me some evidence. We are on a science-based forum after all.

Or maybe I don't understand your definition of FUD. Is FUD simply anything that casts Musk and Tesla in a negative light, even if it exposes lies and dishonesty? Any criticism, no matter the implications nor the quality of evidence, is simply cast aside as FUD. Why don't we just take it a step further and have Neven moderate any negative Musk discussion. Sticky this thread and let sigmetnow post in peace.

I just don't understand your obsession with Tesla, Oren. You're clearly a smart person, and have your head on straight about climate change. But your brain just switches off when anything Tesla/Musk related comes up .

I think you're missing the point zizek. There are hundreds of forum members who'd agree with you overall and who ignore this thread for good reasons. I did a scientific experiment by "testing the waters" to see what might show up only to find it poisoned beyond recovery. A waste of time iow.

All the facts data in the world will not make any difference to those who chose to argue the point with you. They don't care anyway and don't really think telsa will put a dint in agw/cc either nor make any real difference to anything else.   They just like to argue about issues that have nothing to do with telsa or evs. Sig seems to be stuck in the 2000s when reports about technical feasibility were more effective. Lost in the past iow. It used to be a barrier and now it's been swept away more or less leaving the really big important barriers more exposed. Rather than move on and address those unfortunately some here prefer to live in the past and keep up with old habits. Ever heard of big fish little pond? :)
"Abiding in the midst of ignorance, thinking themselves wise and learned, fools go aimlessly hither and thither, like blind led by the blind."    — The Katha Upanishad 1st millennium BCE.

zizek

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1419 on: February 20, 2019, 04:50:05 AM »
Quote
In other news:
-it has become known that AutoPilot is actually more dangerous than no AutoPilot
I have no knowledge of the other info you posted, but these two pieces are from FUD sources as far as I am aware, certainly the second one.

https://arstechnica.com/cars/2019/02/in-2017-the-feds-said-tesla-autopilot-cut-crashes-40-that-was-bogus/
Quote
In 2017, the feds said Tesla Autopilot cut crashes 40%—that was bogus
Quote
But now NHTSA's raw data set is available, and, if anything, it appears to contradict Musk's claims. The majority of the vehicles in the Tesla data set suffered from missing data or other problems that made it impossible to say whether the activation of Autosteer increased or decreased the crash rate. But when QCS focused on 5,714 vehicles whose data didn't suffer from these problems, it found that the activation of Autosteer actually increased crash rates by 59 percent.

arstechnica is definitely not what I would classify as FUD. And if you can explain to me how this report:
http://www.safetyresearch.net/Library/NHTSA_Autosteer_Safety_Claim.pdf
is FUD.  I'll offer the same wager to Rob to you.  $50 dollars to an org of your choice. Prove to me how this report can be classified as fear, uncertainty, or doubt. Give me some evidence. We are on a science-based forum after all.
The report seems to follow scientific methodology though I have some criticism of it: for the claim quoted in arstechnica it takes only a 13% subset of the original data, and in the process discards quite a lot of useful though incomplete data. Checking this incomplete data as summarized in the report, shows that the 13% "complete" data is flawed as well, and that crash rates have not increased.
The report does prove that the NHTSA methodology was flawed, and that the conclusion that 2016 auto-steer reduced airbag deployment by 40% was wrong. It does not prove however that the crash rate increased. The data is simply not sufficient to conclude one way or the other.
The headlines reporting on the report have focused on a few lines from the report, not digging deeper, as headlines do. And selective reading of headlines did the rest. Your bolded conclusion above is plain wrong, not supported by the report.
Another detail that seems to have been forgotten, is that all the data is based on an old version of Auto-pilot, released in 2016 based on older hardware and much older software than is being released today with Tesla vehicles. Again, details, boring details. Does the current AP reduce crash rates? Who knows?
I haven't seen supporting data for Tesla's claim that AP reduces crash rates, as Tesla's recently released data is highly insufficient for that conclusion. However, the reverse conclusion is also not supported. So summarizing the situation with your bolded statement above, is, to me, FUD.
Stop your bullshit. Stop moving the goal posts. At first you were willing to take anything Tesla and the NHTSA said at face value. And now, a 13% sample of the data is not good enough to draw any reasonable conclusions? What hell is that? I didn't know you were such an expert in vehicle collision safety. Can you please explain to the class why 5,700 vehicles is not good enough for you? Especially considering it's the only data we can go by?

And your excuse that the technology is old doesn't hold up. Because Tesla stood behind the report, and did everything they could do to make sure the raw data was never released. So if things got better, why don't they just release another report based off of their new technology? Give us the data? Although, considering how much they lie, I wouldn't doubt it if the data would be fudged.

Here's the page from the report that Oren likes to call FUD FUD FUD FUD FUD FUD. Since you monkeys here don't actually like to read any links:


Quote
Once we received the data,20 we attempted to replicate NHTSA’s summaries21 of airbag deployments as well as mileage exposure before and after Autosteer in- stallation. We expected that the “Miles before Autosteer” exposure measure cal- culated by NHTSA would be equal to “Previous Mileage before Autosteer In- stall” reported by Tesla when mileage had been accumulated before Autosteer was installed. It was also our expectation that exposure “Miles after Autosteer” calculated by NHTSA would be equal to “The mileage of the vehicle at the last data retrieval” minus “Next Mileage after Autosteer Install” reported by Tesla when these data were not unknown, unreported, or otherwise missing for all of the vehicles studied.

In those cases where the “Previous Mileage before Autosteer Install” exactly equals “Next Mileage after Autosteer Install,” it can be inferred that Autosteer was actually installed at the reported mileage in each of these two fields. Figure 1 illustrates the calculation of exposure mileage in the cohort of vehicles where the odometer data at the time of installation is known, based on this inference. (Note that the mileage of the vehicle at the last data retrieval must also have been reported for the vehicles in Figure 1.) This method of calculation of exposure mileage was applicable only to 5,714 vehicles of the total 43,781 vehicles studied, 13 percent.22

Based on the data for crash rate numerators and denominators shown in Figure 1, the resulting calculations reveal a 59 percent increase in the airbag deployment crash rate from 0.76 per million miles of travel to 1.21 per million miles of travel following the installation of Autosteer. As explained below, this result is particu- larly important because it is the only vehicle cohort in the study with complete information for both before and after Autosteer crash rate calculations. Before and after comparisons of the resulting crash rates are unbiased by missing data for exposure mileage because there are no missing data in this subset of the data. This finding is the just the opposite of that claimed by NHTSA for the larger set of vehicles they studied.

We used logistic regression to measure the practical and statistical significance of Autosteer to this apparent difference in crash rates. Because the data do not re- cord the mileage at which an airbag deployed, we employed a method that trans- formed the dataset of 5,714 vehicles into two equal sized segments, “before” and “after” Autosteer. (In the transformed dataset of 11,428 observations, 3 cases have missing data where the last mileage retrieved is reported to equal the “Next mileage after Autosteer installation”). Each observation in the new dataset can be understood as a segment of exposure miles that either did or did not result in
 
an airbag deployment crash. Each observation contained the independent vari- ables, total “Exposure mileage” for the segment, “Autosteer installed” (equals 1 if so, zero otherwise), as well as the dependent variable of “Airbag deployed.”

The model estimated from these specific data helps to answer the question con- cerning NHTSA’s safety claim about Autosteer, “Is the installation of Autosteer associated with a decreased risk of an airbag deployment crash, controlling for exposure mileage?” The answer is “No.”

Table 1 demonstrates that Autosteer is actually associated with an increase in the odds ratio of airbag deployment by more than a factor of 2.4 (95% Confidence Interval: 1.57 - 3.8), when exposure mileage is taken into account. See Table 1.


zizek

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1420 on: February 20, 2019, 04:54:53 AM »
Quote
In other news:

-new estimates of Tesla US inventory have grown to over 10,000.

-it has become known that AutoPilot is actually more dangerous than no AutoPilot
I have no knowledge of the other info you posted, but these two pieces are from FUD sources as far as I am aware, certainly the second one.

What's the point of the Tesla Glory/Failure thread if nobody actually bothers to read any the negative Tesla articles
You actually replied directly to the post I linked the autopilot report:

https://arstechnica.com/cars/2019/02/in-2017-the-feds-said-tesla-autopilot-cut-crashes-40-that-was-bogus/


Quote
In 2017, the feds said Tesla Autopilot cut crashes 40%—that was bogus


Quote
But now NHTSA's raw data set is available, and, if anything, it appears to contradict Musk's claims. The majority of the vehicles in the Tesla data set suffered from missing data or other problems that made it impossible to say whether the activation of Autosteer increased or decreased the crash rate. But when QCS focused on 5,714 vehicles whose data didn't suffer from these problems, it found that the activation of Autosteer actually increased crash rates by 59 percent.

arstechnica is definitely not what I would classify as FUD. And if you can explain to me how this report:
http://www.safetyresearch.net/Library/NHTSA_Autosteer_Safety_Claim.pdf
is FUD.  I'll offer the same wager to Rob to you.  $50 dollars to an org of your choice. Prove to me how this report can be classified as fear, uncertainty, or doubt. Give me some evidence. We are on a science-based forum after all.

Or maybe I don't understand your definition of FUD. Is FUD simply anything that casts Musk and Tesla in a negative light, even if it exposes lies and dishonesty? Any criticism, no matter the implications nor the quality of evidence, is simply cast aside as FUD. Why don't we just take it a step further and have Neven moderate any negative Musk discussion. Sticky this thread and let sigmetnow post in peace.

I just don't understand your obsession with Tesla, Oren. You're clearly a smart person, and have your head on straight about climate change. But your brain just switches off when anything Tesla/Musk related comes up .

I think you're missing the point zizek. There are hundreds of forum members who'd agree with you overall and who ignore this thread for good reasons. I did a scientific experiment by "testing the waters" to see what might show up only to find it poisoned beyond recovery. A waste of time iow.

All the facts data in the world will not make any difference to those who chose to argue the point with you. They don't care anyway and don't really think telsa will put a dint in agw/cc either nor make any real difference to anything else.   They just like to argue about issues that have nothing to do with telsa or evs. Sig seems to be stuck in the 2000s when reports about technical feasibility were more effective. Lost in the past iow. It used to be a barrier and now it's been swept away more or less leaving the really big important barriers more exposed. Rather than move on and address those unfortunately some here prefer to live in the past and keep up with old habits. Ever heard of big fish little pond? :)


Yeah, you're right.  Lately, I've been blocking this forum in my browser because every time I come here I just get frustrated and lose focus from my other work. But, I always find myself scratching the itch to see if anybody has learned any lessons. Nope.  Maybe I have to find a way to block myself from coming here for good. It will do me a lot of good.

oren

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1421 on: February 20, 2019, 06:57:43 AM »
At first you were willing to take anything Tesla and the NHTSA said at face value.
Not true.
Quote
And now, a 13% sample of the data is not good enough to draw any reasonable conclusions? What hell is that? I didn't know you were such an expert in vehicle collision safety. Can you please explain to the class why 5,700 vehicles is not good enough for you? Especially considering it's the only data we can go by?
Table 2 in the report will easily explain why the NHTSA methodology was wrong, but also why the opposite conclusion is not true as well, and why the discarded data shows that the kept data is problematic as well.
Fig.1 is the kept data, that is supposedly totally accurate. It has 0.76 deployments/million miles before auto-steer, and 1.21 dep/mil after auto-steer, so supposedly an increase in deployments after auto-steer.
Figs. 2,3,4 contain the discarded data, where the NHTSA did not assign proper mileage to the before category, and in parts of the data also to the after category. However, it is easy to see that the rates of deployment for the after category are in the range of 0.6-0.8 dep/mil, thereby showing that the result of the kept subset wherein the after rate was 1.21 dep/mil is out of line, and probably suffers from data errors/biases as well, errors that the report failed to consider in its assumptions.
The best conclusion from the partial and faulty data is that the airbag deployment rate was and still remained ~0.7-0.8 deployments/million miles before and after auto-steer.
Note: I do get the feeling that the report writer was happy not to stress this conclusion clearly, as the resulting headlines would have been much less juicy.
Note 2: I believe Tesla is releasing uninformative safety data, while making various statistical safety claims based on said data. Without access to the underlying detailed data it is impossible to verify Tesla's claims, and I suspect Tesla's claims are based on conveniently faulty analysis. (To be clear, this also was my thinking before this report came along).

GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1422 on: February 20, 2019, 03:11:05 PM »
Tesla's old general counsel was Musk's divorce lawyer, which is insane. But they hired a new guy who was actually really legit. He is quitting after 2 months. Hmmm....

Tesla can't keep a serious CFO, CAO, or General Counsel. Won't raise capital that they desperately need. Admit to being under SEC and DOJ investigation. Nothing to see here, move along. Blahahahahaha. It really is sad how naive the Tesla bulls are. Go Long!
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1423 on: February 20, 2019, 03:36:00 PM »
Quote
Elon Musk (@elonmusk) 2/19/19, 7:02 PM
4000 Tesla cars loading in SF for Europe
...

< Do they load themselves?

Elon Musk (@elonmusk)
2/19/19, 7:17 PM
Won’t be long before they do
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1098013621924184064
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1424 on: February 20, 2019, 03:41:29 PM »
Quote
Elon Musk (@elonmusk) 2/19/19, 7:02 PM
4000 Tesla cars loading in SF for Europe
...

< Do they load themselves?

Elon Musk (@elonmusk)
2/19/19, 7:17 PM
Won’t be long before they do
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1098013621924184064

100% unaffected by non-stop, over-the-top, instantly-disprovable LIES. <snip, N.>
« Last Edit: February 22, 2019, 05:18:57 PM by Neven »
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GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1425 on: February 20, 2019, 03:56:29 PM »
NielT, you seem to think yourself pretty solid at understanding the big-time corporate world. Help me understand the following...

Tesla in the past 2 years has had resign 2 CFOs, 2 CAOs, 5 Finance VPs, and the Treasurer (as well as 2 General Counsels). In none of those positions is there currently someone well respected with recent high-level experience. Both times that Tesla did bring in someone from outside the company with a decent amount of credibility (most recent CAO and General Counsel), they quit almost immediately (one month and two months, respectively). 


If you are going to say it is because Tesla is "agile", please to explain how that applies in some serious detail, cuz it does not seem to make any sense to me. Do you honestly believe that it is not possible that it has something to do with the SEC and DOJ investiations / why they haven't been raising capital (AKA "The Secret")?
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GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1426 on: February 20, 2019, 04:51:58 PM »
Okay, I think the big week is finally here. Tesla is out of money. And they are, drum roll please.............. going to try to raise capital(or at least announce that they are). Unexpected developments in the last 48 hours include: 10-K release, $4000 SP podcast, 500k annual production tweet, "Standard Range Soon" language disappears from website, General Counsel resignation.  Next week there is a really really big bill due, and I think the only chance they have is to roll it over, and the only chance of that is if they are bringing in more capital. Very interesting. All the fireworks could happen in the next 2 weeks. Could be nothing though.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1427 on: February 20, 2019, 07:03:00 PM »
Getting ahead of the whole OMG-somebody-else-just-left-Tesla freakout:

Have you read the Maxwell-Tesla SEC S-4 Filing?  The pace of events in December and January for the merger was insane!
http://ir.tesla.com/node/19506/html#toc625340_52

Dane Butswinkas was a trial lawyer from D.C. who had worked for Tesla as outside counsel.   He became Tesla General Counsel in December; was immediately faced with very big, very intense Maxwell merger event.  He is now returning to his D.C. trial lawyer position, but remains as Tesla outside counsel. 
Pretty hard to see anything other than that Tesla General Counsel was simply not a good fit for him.

https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-tsla-general-counsel/

“A person familiar with the matter said Butswinkas was not a good cultural fit with Tesla and wanted to return to his family and law practice in Washington, D.C.”
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2019/02/20/tesla-is-going-to-be-the-next-amazon-says-major-shareholder.html
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1428 on: February 21, 2019, 02:16:15 AM »
Getting ahead of the whole OMG-somebody-else-just-left-Tesla freakout:

Have you read the Maxwell-Tesla SEC S-4 Filing?  The pace of events in December and January for the merger was insane!
http://ir.tesla.com/node/19506/html#toc625340_52

Dane Butswinkas was a trial lawyer from D.C. who had worked for Tesla as outside counsel.   He became Tesla General Counsel in December; was immediately faced with very big, very intense Maxwell merger event.  He is now returning to his D.C. trial lawyer position, but remains as Tesla outside counsel. 
Pretty hard to see anything other than that Tesla General Counsel was simply not a good fit for him.

https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-tsla-general-counsel/

“A person familiar with the matter said Butswinkas was not a good cultural fit with Tesla and wanted to return to his family and law practice in Washington, D.C.”
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2019/02/20/tesla-is-going-to-be-the-next-amazon-says-major-shareholder.html

So basically your answer for all the rapid resignations is just that these ppl were naive about what they were getting themselves into? The idea that Dane Butswinkas was not expecting something as taxing as a quarter billion dollar acquisition while being GC for a $50B company is incredulous.

And why can't any of the positions be filled by credible and experienced outsiders? Does it take a "Tesla person" to do a "Tesla job"? Literally no high level person in the world is available and capable and willing to fill these lucrative positions? Ha! Try again.


Also, I highly doubt you read the filing you are referring to. If you did, WHY?!?

Another also, I don't think he became GC in December. It was announced in December. I think he started late Jan. Not sure though. If you have better info (as weird as that would be), do share.
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GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1429 on: February 21, 2019, 02:21:22 AM »
If you want to see how the world looks through Musk's eyes but willing to try drugs, watch uniquorn's most recent upload in the freezing thread. WARNING: You may need ambien to fall asleep afterwards. Naturally.
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GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1430 on: February 21, 2019, 06:18:28 AM »
Role Play Time:

Dane, "We should really cooperate with the DOJ investigations to prevent more criminal liability for the board and executives."

Elon, "No, never! Take a hike."

Dane, "Okay."
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1431 on: February 21, 2019, 02:59:16 PM »
Quote
I highly doubt you read the filing you are referring to. If you did, WHY?!?

Why, yes I did, thanks!  I found it quite fascinating, and it formed the basis for my post. 
Since you obviously did NOT read it, the relative merit of your totally uniformed opinion is clear.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1432 on: February 21, 2019, 06:42:38 PM »
Quote
Tom 2/21/19, 9:11 AM:
VW having issues with their cell manufacturers. VW wants to build own GF in Germany but is now threatened by their current cell manufacturers with an immediate halt of cell delivery. If only they had planned ahead...
https://twitter.com/tslaqq/status/1098585959778652160
- This is really bad, building an own GF takes years. All of VW's plans could be moot if LG Chem decides to stop delivering cells. Seems like VW is in full panic mode to try to get out of the issue.
Two images below.
[The translation app didn’t work as well with the second image, but it seems LG Chem fought back, and “the Koreans” threatened to no longer deliver batteries, possibly starting now.]

——
Bonus: see Teslas on the move in the 18-sec video in one of the replies to the above tweet:
Quote
scott budman (@scottbudman)2/20/19, 4:26 PM
Our chopper spies @Tesla cars leaving San Francisco’s Pier 80, driving onto a boat, on their way to Europe.
https://twitter.com/scottbudman/status/1098333096858906624
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GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1433 on: February 21, 2019, 08:38:59 PM »
Quote
I highly doubt you read the filing you are referring to. If you did, WHY?!?

Why, yes I did, thanks!  I found it quite fascinating, and it formed the basis for my post. 
Since you obviously did NOT read it, the relative merit of your totally uniformed opinion is clear.

Sad. Hundreds of pages of pointless legalese. All about a meaningless acquisition. Tesla simply wanted their spare cash. (Or would you like to explain the battery tech Tesla was after to me? hahahah!) Do you read every Tesla IR doc?
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1434 on: February 21, 2019, 08:42:55 PM »
Volkswagen's Audi to cut 10 percent of management positions: CEO in Handelsblatt
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-audi-management/volkswagens-audi-to-cut-10-percent-of-management-positions-ceo-in-handelsblatt-idUSKCN1Q92IZ

——-
February 20, 2019
One of the largest U.S. auto dealers just had a rough quarter selling BMWs, and a top executive said Tesla Inc. played a major role.
Quote
Sonic Automotive Inc., the fifth-largest U.S. dealership group, reported fourth-quarter profit Wednesday that missed analysts’ estimates. Jeff Dyke, Sonic’s president, said “challenging” times for BMW AG and Honda Motor Co. were partly to blame. Many of Sonic’s stores selling those companies’ brands are in California, the home of Tesla’s headquarters and by far the largest market for the Model 3 sedan.

When asked by an analyst whether Tesla factored in BMW’s challenges, Dyke answered on Sonic’s earnings call: “There’s no question.  I’ve spent a lot of time in manufacturing meetings, and five years ago, Tesla was just not even a real big topic,” Dyke said. “Today, it’s at the top of everybody’s board, and it needs to be.”

Tesla has eschewed a traditional dealership network in favor of direct sales from its stores and through online ordering. While other retailers have criticized CEO Elon Musk’s approach and said it may be slowing the electric-car maker’s deliveries and repairs, Dyke gave the billionaire credit.

“You can say all that you want about their service problems and all, they’ll just keep selling more cars, and I don’t know if it’s more of a cult than anything else,” Dyke said. “My hat off to them -- they’re selling a lot of cars, and there is no question in California that it’s getting in our shorts.”
https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2019-02-20/is-tesla-a-cult-a-dealer-wonders-as-musk-takes-bite-out-of-bmw?__twitter_impression=true

——
Tesla Model 3 impresses former rally champion after high-speed testing
February 20, 2019
Quote
“Because of the dual motors, (the Model 3 Performance) can infinitely vary the amount of drive to the front and rear however much it is programmed to, based on your steering angle, throttle position, brake position, yaw sensor, wheel speed sensors, (and) probably more that I’m not even aware of. A Subaru or an Audi or something with one engine driving a normal transmission and center diff cannot do that,” Knox stated.
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-model-3-rally-high-speed-test/

——
Tesla delivers first of 100 Model 3 orders to German EV rental company nextmove
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-100-model-3-orders-germany-nextmove/

——
Watch Tesla Semi electric truck accelerate on highway ramp unlike any other truck
https://electrek.co/2019/02/21/watch-tesla-semi-electric-truck-accelerate-ramp/
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

oren

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1435 on: February 22, 2019, 01:17:35 AM »
https://www.consumerreports.org/car-reliability-owner-satisfaction/tesla-model-3-loses-cr-recommendation-over-reliability-issues/

Quote
Tesla Model 3 Loses CR Recommendation Over Reliability Issues
Owners report problems with paint, trim, and electronics in Consumer Reports' survey

Consumer Reports can no longer recommend the newest Tesla—the Model 3 electric sedan—because members say they’ve identified a number of problems with their cars, including issues with its body hardware, as well as paint and trim. CR members reported these results in our annual reliability survey, which includes data on about 470,000 vehicles.

...

Tesla’s Response
A Tesla spokesperson said the automaker has already made “significant improvements” to correct the issues that Model 3 owners raised with CR. “The vast majority of these issues have already been corrected through design and manufacturing improvements, and we are already seeing a significant improvement in our field data,” the spokesperson wrote in an emailed statement to CR. “We take feedback from our customers very seriously and quickly implement improvements any time we hear about issues.” 

How CR Measures Reliability
CR gathers reliability data through an online questionnaire sent out each spring to members. The survey asks about any problems these members may have had within the previous 12 months with 17 aspects of their vehicles, including major systems such as the suspension and electrical system, as well as fit and finish issues such as paint and trim.

For the past few years, CR has been going back to car owners who did not answer the initial survey to gather additional information, and to include a greater number of the newest vehicles. These later responses have been incorporated into the ratings found in our annual April autos issue.

With the new data, CR’s sample size of 2018 Model 3s nearly doubled, bringing the total number of Model 3s involved to more than 500. These latest survey responses contained a relatively high number of reliability complaints.

What the Survey Found
Model 3 owners in our spring survey sample reported some body hardware and in-car electronics problems, such as the screen freezing, which we have seen with other Tesla models. The latest survey data also shows complaints about paint and trim issues. In addition, some members reported that the Model 3’s sole display screen acted strangely.
“The touch screen would intermittently begin acting as if someone was touching it rapidly at many different points,” one member wrote in. “This fault would cause music to play, volume to increase to maximum, and would rescale and pan the map in the navigation system.”

Some owners also complained about glass defects, including cracks in the rear window, in their survey responses.

The stock took a 3% drop so somebody thought it was important .
IMHO, these are issues from "production hell" time, that are much less likely to happen now.

Rob Dekker

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1436 on: February 22, 2019, 05:52:23 AM »
....
SpaceX has quite obviously run out of money (as has Musk personally, hence the mortgages).

At this point, it would be good to note that SpaceX just completed another successful launch, this time of the first Israeli Moon lander, and a Indonesian communication satellite :



Also noteworthy is that with this launch they completed the 34th successful landing and recovery of a Stage-1 booster rocket, and this is the second time that SpaceX re-uses a Stage-1 booster for the THIRD time.

That really shows that they can re-use booster rockets successfully and in doing so reduced the cost for LEO launches below ANY other competitor, and still make money !

So SpaceX is doing more than fine, and GoSouthYoungins is just talking crap.
« Last Edit: February 22, 2019, 09:31:19 AM by Rob Dekker »
This is our planet. This is our time.
Let's not waste either.

RikW

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1437 on: February 22, 2019, 09:20:58 AM »
I wonder, but that is not specific for Tesla, what would happen with exchange rates if going short or long was forbidden;

b_lumenkraft

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1438 on: February 22, 2019, 09:51:27 AM »
Exchanges and banks would lose a revenue stream. Nothing else!

GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1439 on: February 22, 2019, 09:42:16 PM »
So SpaceX is doing more than fine, and GoSouthYoungins is just talking crap.

In December, SpaceX tried to raise half a billion dollars. They couldn't generate much interest despite the high yield junk rate they were offering, and they only raised about half of the offering. Musk mortgaged 5 houses the day they announced the raise, and likely used the funds to participate in the raise. It was in general mostly insiders financing the whole thing to prevent their entire investment in SpaceX from evaporating.

In order for SpaceX's business model to work, they have to be able to re-use a rocket at least ten times. So far, 3 is there max. They also need to put up like 3 times the number of current satellites globally, and do so very soon and for a fraction of current costs.

SpaceX never has and never will turn an annual profit. Every Musk venture is an absurdity preying on the naive hopes and dreams of the modern detached-from-reality human.

Most interesting of all, none of Musk's ideas are actually "green": Luxury supercars, cyborgs, rocket earth travel, tunnels, Martian colonization. I guess the solar roof could have been, but it is a pure fiction. Like announcing a super box that just spits out energy...theoretically green, but total nonsense.

Rob, care to explain the rocket that blew over in a 50mph wind and crushed itself? Care to explain why now the thing is just being capped?

Musk, claimed the tin foil thing was going to fly, "This is for suborbital VTOL tests. Orbital version is taller, has thicker skins (won’t wrinkle) & a smoothly curving nose section." Then a month ago he said, "I just heard. 50 mph winds broke the mooring blocks late last night & fairing was blown over. Will take a few weeks to repair."



big time oops

Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1440 on: February 22, 2019, 10:03:15 PM »
Quote
Tom 2/21/19, 9:11 AM:
VW having issues with their cell manufacturers. VW wants to build own GF in Germany but is now threatened by their current cell manufacturers with an immediate halt of cell delivery. If only they had planned ahead...
https://twitter.com/tslaqq/status/1098585959778652160
- This is really bad, building an own GF takes years. All of VW's plans could be moot if LG Chem decides to stop delivering cells. Seems like VW is in full panic mode to try to get out of the issue.
...

Addendum: Daimler, also, is having trouble getting enough batteries.
Quote
Tom (@TSLAQQ) 2/21/19, 10:09 AM
Incredible: @manager_magazin confirms that Daimler has issues with their cell manufacturer as well. So apart from BMW now all German OEM's have been bitten by not having their own GF. For Daimler, it's now a question whether or not they can sell Smart EV's
https://twitter.com/tslaqq/status/1098600607487791104
Text image in German at the link.
Google translated:  The start in the new era, however, quieter than desired. No 15,000 electric smart sold Daimler 2018; Trouble with the Korean battery supplier LG Chem prevented higher numbers. And partner Renault even announced the partnership. In the successor model, the French do not want to share platform and electric motors.
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1441 on: February 22, 2019, 10:17:21 PM »
Tesla Model 3 deliveries in China are starting earlier than expected
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-model-3-deliveries-china-begin-early/

—-
Tesla sold more pure EVs globally than any other brand in 2018 — including Chinese companies.  And the Model 3 was the best selling BEV in the world.

JATO: Tesla, Model 3 Top Global BEV Sales Charts
Quote
Despite production and delivery "hell," JATO says Model 3 was the best-selling EV in 2018 and Tesla ruled EV sales by brand.

Tesla was the top-selling EV maker in the world in 2018, followed by China’s BAIC and BYD, renowned data house JATO Dynamics said today in an emailed statement. JATO tracks actual registrations, as opposed to sometimes elastic data published by OEMs.

According to JATO, 230,000 Tesla cars were registered in 2018, followed by 152,000 BAIC BEVs, 95,000 made by BYD, 92,000 by Nissan, and 64,000 by China’s Zotye. World’s best-selling BEV has been the Tesla Model 3 with 138,000 units registered, followed by 92,000 BAIC EC, and 95,000 Nissan Leaf, JATO says. It has been occasionally suggested by parties critical to Tesla that many of its new Model 3 could be sitting unsold in lots around the country. JATO’s registration data do not bear that out. Referring to the Model 3, Tesla’s Q4 shareholder letter talked about “nearly 140,000 units sold,” which should be close enough to JATO’s 138,000.
http://thedrive.com/tech/26605/jato-tesla-model-3-top-global-bev-sales-charts
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Lurk

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1442 on: February 23, 2019, 03:55:27 AM »
Tesla Model 3 deliveries in China are starting earlier than expected
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-model-3-deliveries-china-begin-early/

—-
Tesla sold more pure EVs globally than any other brand in 2018 — including Chinese companies.  And the Model 3 was the best selling BEV in the world.



RE: "People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it."

I agree. I am not standing in the way. So .....

1) Buy your first Tesla 3 yourself - put your $ where your mouth is and your Refs are - Do it.
2) Buy more TSLA shares now while the price is deflated despite all the "good news" - Do it.
3) Check your bank and see if you can't get a loan on your Home to buy even more Shares. Do it.

Now only $295 / share after being as low as $291 yesterday. Quick the price is going up.

Yes, do it!

A bit of silly humour for an otherwise tedious very repetitive thread about a Brand Name :)

Me, I prefer LA Ice Cola, what about you?

Better still what does the Scientific and Sales Data have to say about different Cola brands?

Don't they all have too much Sugar for Safe Human Consumption?

Are not all Brands a Common Bad which represent Over-Consumption of a Societal Ill?

I'll be back later, have to run buy a stack of LA ICE Cola Shares to make a killing on the stock market. ;)

My high quality refs of why that's a great thing to do!

Facing Slumping Sales, Coke Hopes To Catch A Wave Of Fans With New Flavors
https://www.npr.org/sections/thesalt/2018/01/23/580004834/facing-slumping-sales-coke-hopes-to-catch-a-wave-of-fans-with-new-flavors

The main reason for the drink's popularity is that it is cheaper than some of its rivals, costing as little as $1 for 2 litres.
https://www.revolvy.com/page/LA-Ice-Cola

Highly credible source - The Guardian
Yet some analysts still insist that Coca-Cola is finally going flat. In early 2016, UK volume sales were down 5%, while the lower-calorie Coca-Cola Life has flopped and in 2018 the sugar tax comes in. After years of stuttering growth globally, in which Coca-Cola has arguably failed to adjust to a new healthier era, could it face years of slow decline?
https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2016/sep/14/cola-taste-test-best-and-worst-alternatives-coca-cola

See any similarities there to tesla commentaries and refs? (smile)
« Last Edit: February 23, 2019, 05:10:28 AM by Lurk »
"Abiding in the midst of ignorance, thinking themselves wise and learned, fools go aimlessly hither and thither, like blind led by the blind."    — The Katha Upanishad 1st millennium BCE.

zizek

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1443 on: February 23, 2019, 04:30:00 AM »
At first you were willing to take anything Tesla and the NHTSA said at face value.
Not true.
Quote
And now, a 13% sample of the data is not good enough to draw any reasonable conclusions? What hell is that? I didn't know you were such an expert in vehicle collision safety. Can you please explain to the class why 5,700 vehicles is not good enough for you? Especially considering it's the only data we can go by?
Table 2 in the report will easily explain why the NHTSA methodology was wrong, but also why the opposite conclusion is not true as well, and why the discarded data shows that the kept data is problematic as well.
Fig.1 is the kept data, that is supposedly totally accurate. It has 0.76 deployments/million miles before auto-steer, and 1.21 dep/mil after auto-steer, so supposedly an increase in deployments after auto-steer.
Figs. 2,3,4 contain the discarded data, where the NHTSA did not assign proper mileage to the before category, and in parts of the data also to the after category. However, it is easy to see that the rates of deployment for the after category are in the range of 0.6-0.8 dep/mil, thereby showing that the result of the kept subset wherein the after rate was 1.21 dep/mil is out of line, and probably suffers from data errors/biases as well, errors that the report failed to consider in its assumptions.
The best conclusion from the partial and faulty data is that the airbag deployment rate was and still remained ~0.7-0.8 deployments/million miles before and after auto-steer.
Note: I do get the feeling that the report writer was happy not to stress this conclusion clearly, as the resulting headlines would have been much less juicy.
Note 2: I believe Tesla is releasing uninformative safety data, while making various statistical safety claims based on said data. Without access to the underlying detailed data it is impossible to verify Tesla's claims, and I suspect Tesla's claims are based on conveniently faulty analysis. (To be clear, this also was my thinking before this report came along).

Okay I see. So, because incomplete data doesn't match the complete data. Then any conclusions based on the complete data is FUD. cool. got it.

According to you, if I'm a car manufacturer and I want to give myself a nice safety rating I just have to follow these easy steps:

1) Gather crash and mileage data. Ooops. Looks like our crash rate is higher than the national average. So let's provide only a small set of complete data. So proceed to step 2
2) Create another set of data that may be incomplete, but has crash rates in line with national averages.
3) Success! If somebody asks why our complete data has a higher crash rates than average, take your finger and press it against their mouth, and say shhhhhhhh. "but look at the incomplete data, it's good. and therefore, you can't draw any conclusions. Other than we're likely to be good. Cause this stuff is good, and the bad stuff, just ignore that stuff"

GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1444 on: February 23, 2019, 07:40:36 AM »
sig, I assume you read Tesla's 10-K, since it is the most important doc of the year, and if you read the whole maxwell filing, it seems like a no-brainer for you, no pun intended  ;)

So, obviously you are familiar with the fact that on dec 18, Tesla postponed their repayment of 180something million dollars that was due at the end of the month to Jan 31. Then they moved their Q4 call up to Jan 30, and on that same day they pushed their repayment back until April. It wasn't known during the call that this had been done and Tesla didn't mention it so obviously they didn't have to field any questions about it.

You clearly believe everything Tesla says, especially their official financials, so can you explain for us simpleton bears: Why would a company with $3.5B in cash extend payment of $180M for a month, and then another few months? As, I'm sure you know, they had to pay significantly to do this. Is there any other example EVER of a company not paying back a loan when it was due when it represented only 5% of their cash balance? Crickets.
big time oops

Rob Dekker

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1445 on: February 23, 2019, 11:40:36 AM »
Why are you messing with the picture, and when exactly did you take this screenshot ?
God Rob. Have you never been on a website and the tables have broken. When a website isn't optimized to a particular browser size and it messes with the layout? Is this your first time on the internet?
Ah. So I guess that's your way of admitting that you messed up that screen shot ?
And you admit it in this oh so nice way, by insulting me, the one who pointed it out.
OK. Got it.
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Let's not waste either.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1446 on: February 23, 2019, 03:42:01 PM »
NASA completes certification of SpaceX Dragon Crew capsule; sets March 2 launch date for Demo-1 flight to International Space Station; will provide live coverage and updates.

NASA, SpaceX Demo-1 Briefings, Events and Broadcasts
https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-spacex-demo-1-briefings-events-and-broadcasts

NASA TV - SpaceX DM-1 [Pre-] Flight Readiness Review Press Conference - YouTube


People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1447 on: February 23, 2019, 06:24:39 PM »
NASA completes certification of SpaceX Dragon Crew capsule; sets March 2 launch date for Demo-1 flight to International Space Station; will provide live coverage and updates.

NASA, SpaceX Demo-1 Briefings, Events and Broadcasts
https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-spacex-demo-1-briefings-events-and-broadcasts

NASA TV - SpaceX DM-1 [Pre-] Flight Readiness Review Press Conference - YouTube


It is telling that you would rather post the above and not respond to the below.

sig, I assume you read Tesla's 10-K, since it is the most important doc of the year, and if you read the whole maxwell filing, it seems like a no-brainer for you, no pun intended  ;)

So, obviously you are familiar with the fact that on dec 18, Tesla postponed their repayment of 180something million dollars that was due at the end of the month to Jan 31. Then they moved their Q4 call up to Jan 30, and on that same day they pushed their repayment back until April. It wasn't known during the call that this had been done and Tesla didn't mention it so obviously they didn't have to field any questions about it.

You clearly believe everything Tesla says, especially their official financials, so can you explain for us simpleton bears: Why would a company with $3.5B in cash extend payment of $180M for a month, and then another few months? As, I'm sure you know, they had to pay significantly to do this. Is there any other example EVER of a company not paying back a loan when it was due when it represented only 5% of their cash balance? Crickets.
big time oops

NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1448 on: February 23, 2019, 07:42:56 PM »
You clearly believe everything Tesla says, especially their official financials, so can you explain for us simpleton bears: Why would a company with $3.5B in cash extend payment of $180M for a month, and then another few months? As, I'm sure you know, they had to pay significantly to do this. Is there any other example EVER of a company not paying back a loan when it was due when it represented only 5% of their cash balance? Crickets.

It depends very much on what they have committed for the $3.5bn, whether the debt it movable and other debt is not and whether they forecast difficult revenue conditions, such as a statistical low sales period.

Companies do this all the time.  It is what caught out a lot of companies in the financial crisis, they had cash but kept on rolling over debt because debt kept on getting cheaper.  Until they found themselves with lowered cash reserves and no ability to refinance.

So, in answer to your question, yes, there have been plenty of companies which did this.  But much less since the catastrophe of companies which went over because they could not roll over their finance in 2009.

You'll have to do better than $180m to convince me that Tesla is going tits up.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1449 on: February 23, 2019, 08:23:33 PM »
Quote
It is telling that you would rather post the above and not respond to the below.

Yes, quite telling!  Since you don’t see how “hundreds of pages of … legalese” can affect the job of Tesla General Counsel, and choose to exaggerate minor SpaceX test-fairing accidents, while totally ignoring huge SpaceX’s accomplishments, don’t expect me to bother trying to explain Tesla finance to you.

SpaceX’s Starship engine breaks Russian rocketry record held for two decades
https://www.teslarati.com/spacex-starship-engine-breaks-russian-record-extraordinary-test-series/

Elon Musk on Twitter: Raptor just achieved power level needed for Starship & Super Heavy - spacex
https://www.reddit.com/r/spacex/comments/ao1lz5/elon_musk_on_twitter_raptor_just_achieved_power/
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.