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rboyd

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1850 on: April 05, 2019, 05:59:40 PM »
Yes, a very good article. Interesting details on the levers being pulled to juice demand, and some left for the next quarter.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1851 on: April 05, 2019, 08:57:43 PM »
MUSK statement: “I have great respect for Judge Nathan, and I’m pleased with her decision today. The tweet in question was true, immaterial to shareholders, and in no way a violation of my agreement with the SEC.....”
"We have always felt that we should be able to work through any disagreements directly with the SEC, rather than prematurely rushing to court. Today, that is exactly what Judge Nathan instructed.”

Judge orders Elon Musk and the SEC to settle Tesla tweet dispute
They have two weeks to hammer out an agreement.
Quote
Tesla chief Elon Musk told reporters outside the Manhattan Federal Courthouse that he was "very happy" over the outcome of the SEC's latest complaint against him. The commission sought to hold him in contempt for violating their previous settlement over a financially relevant tweet, after all, but the judge has merely ordered both parties to resolve their dispute outside of court. "Take a deep breath, put your reasonableness pants on, and work this out," District Judge Alison Nathan said during the hearing.
https://www.engadget.com/2019/04/05/tesla-elon-musk-sec-tweets/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1852 on: April 05, 2019, 09:22:38 PM »
"Despite pull forward of demand from Q1'19 into Q4'18 due to the step down in the federal tax credit, US orders for Model 3 vehicles significantly outpaced what we were able to deliver in Q1. We reaffirm our prior guidance of 360,000 to 400,000 vehicle deliveries in 2019." -Tesla

Quote
ValueAnalyst (@ValueAnalyst1) 4/3/19, 9:56 PM
[The above is] is the most important statement.
Tesla also signaled that it will not need to raise external capital, as predicted.
Autopilot news
Gigafactory Shanghai progress …
https://twitter.com/valueanalyst1/status/1113621451419131904
 
  —-
Hot Rod  (@hot_rod_co) 4/4/19, 7:53 AM
People are missing implied cash strength of @Tesla from Q1 deliveries - having delivered half the volume through 3/21, the other half already manufactured+shipped - they had 2-2.5B in working cap./inv. in transit as of 3/21
https://twitter.com/hot_rod_co/status/1113771502011396096

Quote
Walter MacVane (@EcoHeliGuy) 4/3/19, 11:45 PM.
Tesla Q1
https://twitter.com/ecoheliguy/status/1113648662054199297
First graph below.

Quote
Ben Sullins (@BenSullins)4/3/19, 10:17 PM
Some perspective on @Tesla Q1 results
https://twitter.com/bensullins/status/1113626616939200515
Third graph below.

Quote
Jon Erlichman (@JonErlichman) 4/4/19, 6:58 AM
Tesla vehicle deliveries in first quarter:

Q1 2019: 63,000
Q1 2018: 29,980
Q1 2017: 25,000
Q1 2016: 14,820
Q1 2015: 10,045
Q1 2014: 6,457
Q1 2013: 4,900
Q1 2012: 0
https://twitter.com/jonerlichman/status/1113757823207444480

WORST Q1 IN… NEVER!
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1853 on: April 05, 2019, 09:25:00 PM »
Quote
Walter MacVane (@EcoHeliGuy) 3/31/19, 6:51 PM
There is a lot of attention to exact expectations of delivery counts. But that’s not the Story of Q1, 2019. Model 3 is breaking out onto the international stage, to carry the crown of the 21 century. What we need to pay attention to is this cars impact on the markets. ...
https://twitter.com/ecoheliguy/status/1112487579968892928
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oren

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1854 on: April 06, 2019, 12:13:04 AM »
The likely scenario above for Q2 is plausible, though could be exceeded, it all depends on incoming orders. In any case, hitting 360k for 2019 will be very difficult.
Y SUV will only be made in fall 2020, so irrelevant for 2019. China GF is initially planned for 3000/week, not more, even if ready before year-end. Fremont can theoretically achieve 7000/week.

NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1855 on: April 06, 2019, 01:34:21 AM »
Those who expect positive answers to all the above questions and who accept the current guidance from Tesla and Musk for 2019 production rates will disagree.

Probably.  These questions are biased towards the "impossible journey" viewpoint.  If, however, we take the "already achieved" viewpoint, then it is a slightly different picture.

After all the Bear view of 2018 was that Tesla was going to run out of funds and the Gigafactor3 would be sold off to a competitor when it was finished, some time around the end of 2019, without any vehicle manufacturing equipment in it.

Reality in 2019 is that China can build factories 3-5 times faster than the west.  Leading to manufacturing equipment installation in May which will roll out to the end of Q2.  Likely low volume production date is some time around mid Q3 with a high volume ramp up in Q4.

Naturally that could go to hell, but the indications are that it won't.  There is strong Government support for this in China and they see it as an integral part of their EV strategy and a key enabler for the internal Chinese EV market to reinvent itself.

The next part of the picture is only visible to Tesla. What are the mass market $35k orders looking like.  I can understand that Tesla is not manufacturing to these orders when they have $45k to $65k orders outstanding.  Even at lower production rates it is more profitable to produce less vehicles.  This also allows time for realignment of production for the lower cost versions.

Again, time will tell.  But if we look at the track record of the last year, it is one of incremental and constant improvement on the production side going in cycles.



But what happens all depends on what actually happens
. And right now, nobody knows what's going to happen. :D

Nope that is totally true.  You just need to look at the fact that German manufacturing is slipping into recession to see that.  Certainly the ECB didn't see it coming or they would never have started tightening money, only to suddenly start talking about looser money conditions 6 months later.

There could be a sudden world wide recession, or a sudden boom if the US, China and the EU come to terms on trade and the order books open to pre Trump levels.

Who knows.  Probably not even the people who are trying to negotiate it right now.

But this is the crux.  Forget Musk and the SEC, the SEC may give Musk a bit of a beating from time to time but there is no way they are going to be on the hook for breaking a company which is emerging from start up status and making a profit.  The real risk to Tesla is a sudden fall away in orders due to significant uncertainty in the economy and jobs.

I find it interesting that Tesla has not yet produced the RHD Model3.  The UK has a market of 141k (2018 figures), of EV's with over 15,000 of them being plug in.  The main barrier to Tesla in the UK is price so we are sucking in lesser EU vehicles because Tesla isn't producing RHD variants of the Model3.

Brexit aside, the UK has growth exceeding the Eurozone, record high employment, record low unemployment and because of the diesel scandal people are clearly looking for options outside the norm but are not finding many viable products.

This means that Tesla has an untapped RHD market in the commonwealth and Japan/Korea which could boost sales in Q2/3/4 this year if they were to include the RHD model.

But back to your statement.  Nobody knows where things are going to go.  Not even Tesla....  But you can be sure of one thing.  Tesla does have a plan.
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GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1856 on: April 06, 2019, 02:52:46 AM »
Leading to manufacturing equipment installation in May which will roll out to the end of Q2.  Likely low volume production date is some time around mid Q3 with a high volume ramp up in Q4.

I honestly can't fathom how you believe this. Has that sort of a set up ever been done? NO. So why you casually suggest it will this time?!?
big time oops

b_lumenkraft

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1857 on: April 06, 2019, 09:48:07 AM »

Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1858 on: April 06, 2019, 02:53:22 PM »
No real competition.

Sandy Munro does not simply “review” cars.  His lab takes them apart and examines them in minute detail, enabling reports on comparative cost and technology for which other carmakers can pay well over $100,000.

In this new, Tesla-centric episode of Autoline After Hours, Sandy Munro describes the Chinese EV market, and how the China government has made buying an ICE vehicle next to impossible, while buying an EV is much easier, and suggests the China version of the Model 3 will be essentially the same as the California version.    After his detailed teardown and analysis showed how Tesla is years ahead of any other carmaker, he expresses certainty that Tesla will succeed.

Article:  Tesla Model 3 teardown expert Sandy Munro is exasperated with analysts’ inaccurate data
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-model-3-sandy-munro-analyst-data-video/



——
While the “competition” tries — and fails* — to offer a compelling alternative to yesterday’s Tesla… Tesla is moving ahead yet again:

Tesla is upgrading Model S/X with new, more efficient electric motors
https://electrek.co/2019/04/05/tesla-model-s-new-electric-motors/

*Audi E-Tron Gets Lower Than Expected 204-Mile EPA Range Rating
https://insideevs.com/audi-e-tron-electric-range-epa/

Quote
Matt Joyce (@matty_mogul) 4/4/19, 2:30 PM
Updated “core efficiency” table.
Audi e tron just officially came in with a 204 EPA mile range. Embarrassing.
In comparison:
Model X = 100 kWh = 295 EPA miles
e tron = 95 kWh = 204 EPA miles
https://twitter.com/matty_mogul/status/1113871540158914561
Table below.

——-
New Autopilot study by the MIT autonomous driving research team:
Quote
“The central observation in the dataset is that drivers use Autopilot for 34.8% of their driven miles, and yet appear to maintain a relatively high degree of functional vigilance.”
...
The following is our paper on driver functional vigilance during use of Tesla Autopilot driver assistance system. We analyzed 18,928 Autopilot disengagements. 3+ years of hard work with an incredible research team at MIT. …
https://twitter.com/lexfridman/status/1113870913546670080
30 sec gif at the link: AP users, over one day: mainly on ring road highways, and main connectors.  The gif is also in the report:

Human Side of Tesla Autopilot
https://hcai.mit.edu/human-side-of-tesla-autopilot/

And Tesla just released another improvement, differentiating their cars even further:
Introducing a More Seamless Navigate on Autopilot
https://www.tesla.com/blog/introducing-more-seamless-navigate-autopilot
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1859 on: April 06, 2019, 04:37:54 PM »
Tesla bear gets shot down after insisting that 'competition' is coming for TSLA
Quote
“I think it poses a problem for Tesla from the standpoint of ‘Let’s finally see this vehicle.’ I honestly believe based on Tesla owners that I’ve talked with as well as those who track the company, we’re tired of hearing ‘the competitors are coming, the competitors are coming.’ Bring it out. Bring it out, and if Porsche’s Taycan is as impressive as the initial indications are, then it will be a threat to Tesla, but until then, this is a little bit like The Boy (Who) Cried Wolf. We hear it all the time. ‘There’s a wave of vehicles coming.’ Well, that wave of vehicles isn’t here yet. It was supposed to be here by 2019. It’s not here yet. When does it get here? If I’m a Tesla investor, I’m not too worried about this argument until we start to see these vehicles,” LeBeau retorted.

Phil LeBeau was actually being quite generous when he noted that the Porsche Taycanwill be a threat to Tesla. Porsche is a niche carmaker, and it is a company that prioritizes the exclusivity of its vehicles. At most, the Taycan will eat into the Model S’ sales since they compete in the same segment. The German-made all-electric car from Porsche will not compete in the same mass-market segment as the Model 3, or the Model Y for that matter.

One thing that Tesla skeptics always seem to forget is that electric vehicles from other carmakers will not kill or overwhelm Tesla. Instead, they are vehicles that contribute to the mission of the electric car maker, which is to encourage the world to shift away from the internal combustion engine. Thus, every Taycan and I-PACE that is sold is not a lost sale for Tesla; it is a lost sale for gas and diesel-powered vehicles.
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-tsla-bear-shot-down-tesla-killer-video/
Video at the link.


Tesla is a wake-up call for rivals and their 'awful' software, says longtime finance host
Quote
“You don’t even need to look ahead to autonomous vehicles. I had this discussion with someone I’m close to over the weekend who works in Silicon Valley. Every other automaker, even luxury automakers in Germany, Japanese, and American, they are awful at software. There is no other car and no other car company that compares to a Tesla. We all, as drivers and consumers, ought to be rooting for this company. You don’t have to own stock in it, but you ought to root for them because hopefully, all these automakers will realize, ‘Oh, our software stinks,'” McDowell said.
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-tsla-wake-up-call-rivals-software-video/
Video at the link.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1860 on: April 06, 2019, 08:46:50 PM »
Quote
Vincent (@vincent13031925) 4/3/19, 2:57 AM
1/ On April 2, Wu Qing, Deputy Mayor of Shanghai, met with Jerome Guillen, #Tesla President of Automotive & the team. Production equipments are expected to install in May, & some production lines will be mass-produc[ing] at the end of 2019.
$TSLA #China #TeslaChina #特斯拉 #中国
https://twitter.com/vincent13031925/status/1113334584609886208
2/ Both sides conducted in-depth exchanges on the progress of the #Tesla Shanghai GF3 project and related topics such as supply chain localization and future development planning in manufacturing and parts supply.
Photo of the meeting at the link.

Tesla Shanghai Gigafactory Speeds Ahead — Roofs Going Up (Video)
Quote
On Tuesday of this week, Jerome Guillen, president of automotive at Tesla, met with the deputy mayor of Shanghai, Wu Qing, to discuss construction progress, supply chain, and future development planning, as reported by Laoyaoba and covered in Vincent’s above tweet.

There’s also talk of some parts of the Shanghai site being complete enough by May 2019 for initial equipment installation to begin. It would make sense for the general assembly area to be a prioritized, but let’s see what happens.

The official timeline remains that vehicle production from the Gigafactory is planned for sometime between Q4 2019 and Q1 2020. Recent official Chinese records showed a September 2019 target for completion of the main stamping, bodywork, painting, and assembly workshops. We will likely get an official update from Tesla in the Q1 2019 report and investor call, due in early May. ...
https://cleantechnica.com/2019/04/06/tesla-shanghai-gigafactory-speeds-ahead-roofs-going-up-video/
Video at the link
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Neven

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1861 on: April 07, 2019, 09:35:51 AM »
Nevertheless, most posts to this thread are a complete waste of everyone's time and energy.

Which is why I removed a couple of reactions to posted links. I want mostly links in this thread that either point to Tesla Glory or Failure, not lengthy analyses or reactions to said links.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1862 on: April 07, 2019, 02:08:24 PM »
Fiat Chrysler to pay Tesla hundreds of millions of euros to pool fleet: Financial Times
Quote
(Reuters) - Italian carmaker Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV (FCA) has agreed to pay electric carmaker Tesla Inc hundreds of millions of euros so that the vehicles of Tesla are counted in its fleet to avoid fines for violating new European Union emission rules, the Financial Times reported on Sunday.

The step will let the Italian carmaker offset carbon dioxide emissions from its cars against Tesla’s, by bringing down its average figure to a permissible level, the FT said.

The report did not mention further financial details of the specific amount that Fiat Chrysler has agreed to pay Tesla.

The Italian carmaker formed an open pool with Tesla on Feb. 25, the report added, citing a declaration with the European Commission.

Tesla did not immediately respond to a request for comment on Sunday. Fiat Chrysler did not directly address the amount that it would pay but added it would “optimize the options for compliance that the regulations offer.”
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-fiat-chrysler-tesla-eu-idUSKCN1RJ03I
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1863 on: April 07, 2019, 02:32:04 PM »
A Look Inside The Tesla Model 3, Chevy Bolt, and BMW i3 - YouTube

Jalopnik’s 18-min video from inside Munro Teardown lab.

Consensus:  EVERY aspect of the Tesla is better designed and engineered.

“I think that’s gonna be the future. We’re gonna have to listen to Elon Musk for, like, DECADES now.”
“Uff.”
 ;D

Quote
TriTexan (@TriTexan) 4/6/19, 9:09 AM
Dear $TSLA & $TSLAQ, and all who say that batteries, motors, etc are "commodities": take the 18 mins to watch Jalopnik examine the top to bottom engineering of a Bolt, a BMW, and Tesla. EVERY aspect of the Tesla is better designed and engineered. youtu.be/pgu6mkKZwNg
https://twitter.com/tritexan/status/1114515359820918785
- Tesla batteries: Better. Cheaper to make, lower center of gravity, higher charge rate, better cooling.
Tesla motors: Smaller, lighter, yet twice as powerful. Better cooling and packaging.
Tesla electronics: Much simpler design, better integrated, likely more reliable.
- Tesla body design and packaging: Much better space utilization, better available storage, better crumple zones. Ok - a few quirks with manufacturing, but nothing that adversely affects the user/consumer.
Summary: There is very little if anything that Chevy or BMW does better.
- I want people to take SPECIAL notice of batter pack production rates. This is NOT from Tesla, this is from a team of experts who study vehicle manufacturing as a specialty. Notice anything DRAMATIC here? Let's not forget - these same experts say Tesla can also do it CHEAPER.

From the video:  BMW can make one battery pack every 80 seconds.  Chevy can make two units per minute.  Tesla can make 60 to 100 units per minute.
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Neven

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1864 on: April 07, 2019, 09:35:48 PM »
not lengthy analyses or reactions to said links.
Good luck with that. :)

Indeed, the first thing I wanted to do when reading about Tesla's deal with a CO2-spewing car manufacturer, was react. But I managed to restrain myself.  ;)
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oren

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1865 on: April 08, 2019, 03:09:18 AM »
Tesla's deal with F-C is not much different from ZEV credits in the US. When fighting for survival do you really expect Tesla to avoid selling these credits because they enable other car-makers to continue to sell dirty cars? That would lead to Tesla failure, strongly dialing back the push for EVs.
OTOH these car makers would pay as fines what they pay to Tesla, and they still wouldn't come up with attractive and affordable EVs that the mass market would adopt.

rboyd

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1866 on: April 08, 2019, 03:58:50 AM »
Because that is the position they are in.

RikW

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1867 on: April 08, 2019, 12:28:55 PM »
just as we as mankind.

Well, at least I guess Tesla won't go broke this year, getting several hunderds of millions for doing nothing is a lot of money...

Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1868 on: April 08, 2019, 02:54:45 PM »
just as we as mankind.

Well, at least I guess Tesla won't go broke this year, getting several hunderds of millions for doing nothing is a lot of money...

You mean, “... doing nothing more than they are already doing.”  Which is quite a lot....  ;)
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1869 on: April 08, 2019, 02:57:12 PM »
Forbes!
Tesla Deliveries Up 110% From Last Year
https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenkam/2019/04/05/tesla-deliveries-up-110-from-last-year/

Tesla Model 3 = 60% Of US Electric Vehicle Market
https://cleantechnica.com/2019/04/07/tesla-model-3-60-of-us-electric-vehicle-market/

——-
Quote
ValueAnalyst (@ValueAnalyst1) 4/7/19, 4:41 PM
In 2020, @Tesla Model 3 Performance will go *50 percent further with better performance* than @Porsche Taycan, but at *half* the price, with access to the only ubiquitous, fast-charging network, and with Full Self-Driving 10x to 100x safer than an average human driver. Good luck.
https://twitter.com/valueanalyst1/status/1114991646742122496
Quote
ValueAnalyst (@ValueAnalyst1) 4/7/19, 5:14 PM
In 2021, @Tesla Roadster will go *three times further with much, much better performance* than @Porsche Taycan, with access to the only ubiquitous, fast-charging network, and with Full Self-Driving 100x to 1000x safer than an average human driver. Good luck.
https://twitter.com/valueanalyst1/status/1114999829707612160

——-
New and improved Navigate on Autopilot.  Anyone who wants this must buy a Tesla.
Quote
Rushabh Shah (@RxShah) 4/7/19, 7:43 AM
@Teslarati Yes I confirm, it works well, probably drives better than me.
https://twitter.com/rxshah/status/1114856139076841472
90-second video: Tesla evades traffic to make 3 lane changes and take an exit ramp, all unassisted.

Quote
Alex (@alex_avoigt) 4/7/19, 7:09 AM
Some really exciting German testing NoA on a German Autobahn.
Look at minute 2 following. No need to understand German just look at them freaking out of joy...
Could be me driving a few days ago 85km on NoA in Bavaria ...
https://t.co/bDHBEmY4Rq
https://twitter.com/alex_avoigt/status/1114847637176504320

Article:  Tesla’s Navigate on Autopilot performs amazingly with automatic lane changes
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-model-3-model-s-model-x-no-confirmation-navigate-on-autopilot-video/
Last vid at the bottom of the article documents a ~15 mile trip involving several highway interchanges.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1870 on: April 08, 2019, 03:08:00 PM »
Tesla is succeeding now in large part because the major automakers don’t want to make an EV that’s better than their traditional ICE products.

Quote
Jonathan Hewitt (@owlmaster08) 4/7/19, 8:45 PM
Should've made a secret masterplan back in 2006.
$FCAU $TSLA
https://twitter.com/owlmaster08/status/1115052927423528966
Image below.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1871 on: April 08, 2019, 06:24:13 PM »
Quote
ceo plus, Roger Rusch (@ceo_plus_ch) 4/8/19, 8:39 AM
BREAKING: In Switzerland, the #Tesla #Model3 outsold ALL other cars in March. For the 1st time in history, a fully electric car (#BEV) is the most sold model of the entire car market - with a huge lead of 37% over the runner-up. Congrats & thank you, team @Tesla and @elonmusk!
https://twitter.com/ceo_plus_ch/status/1115232575788859392
- Data source of the chart: Auto Schweiz, the association of Swiss car importers
Chart below.
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Archimid

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1872 on: April 08, 2019, 09:01:22 PM »
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1873 on: April 08, 2019, 09:29:25 PM »
Boy, you pay enough for one; you'd think they would follow voice commands when delivered.  Or maybe this is part of the post-factory, pre-delivery training program, which makes it okay.  So, Archimid, is this a sign of glory or failure? [/s]
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Archimid

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1874 on: April 09, 2019, 02:25:37 AM »
For as long as the humans are in charge and not the other way around, a glory. :)
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1875 on: April 09, 2019, 02:36:47 AM »
Tesla has again extended the Maxwell deal.

https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2019/04/08/1799381/0/en/Tender-Offer-Extension-for-Acquisition-of-Maxwell-Technologies-Inc.html

For anyone actually paying attention. I have been saying for the last 9 months that it is obvious that Tesla cannot legally issue more stock. This continues to be the case despite the overall situation lending itself to being increasingly NECESSARY for Tesla to issue stock. So it is abundantly obvious that they cannot.

What could a company not raise stock?!?!? Only one reason... there is material information that the company has not disclosed to the public. If Tesla is fighting to stay afloat and there is material info which they don't want the public to know, it is UNFU**ING FATHOMABLE that the information is good.

<snip, please, don't invite discussions, just post the propaganda; N.>
« Last Edit: April 09, 2019, 09:31:23 AM by Neven »
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1876 on: April 09, 2019, 12:59:52 PM »
Quote
We proved that we can mislead the Tesla car into the reverse lane with minor changes on the road.

You can also fool humans by changing the road. You don't even have to change the road. I've made the mistake of driving the wrong way more than once in my life, and have encountered drivers driving on the wrong side of the road many times.
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1877 on: April 09, 2019, 04:14:21 PM »
<snip, off-topic discussion, too many words; N.>
« Last Edit: April 10, 2019, 12:12:48 AM by Neven »

Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1878 on: April 09, 2019, 04:36:27 PM »
Already fixed.
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1879 on: April 09, 2019, 04:49:08 PM »
Model S and X have many voice commands.  Here’s this for the Model 3:
Quote
You can use voice commands to:
• Call a contact.
• Navigate to a location.
• Listen to Internet music.
To initiate a voice command, tap the microphone button on the touchscreen. When you hear the tone, speak your command. As you speak, the touchscreen displays an interpretation of your command. It also displays tips to remind you of the type of commands you can speak. When you finish speaking the command, tap the voice button again or simply wait.

Known working voice commands? | Tesla Motors Club
https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/known-working-voice-commands.112136/

Tesla Model 3 will get more features controlled by voice command, says Musk
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-model-3-voice-commands-features-musk/
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1880 on: April 09, 2019, 05:24:44 PM »
Quote
b) if one human is making an error he/she can and usually will realize, hopefully sooner than later and eventually correct that error, while a machine is quite stubborn once caught on the wrong track, see recent air france and B737Mac incidents where the computer insisted on his error until all passengers were dead and the plane destroyed.

Tesla Autopilot is not static.  Besides continual software updates, the program is a neural net, continully learning and changing, using the experience of the entire fleet.  And Tesla techs looks at the data when drivers disengage Autopilot, so they can help the program learn how to handle edge cases.  So many videos of people testing autopilot on roads they know, saying, “AP has always had a problem with this curve — but not any more!”

The latest and greatest Hardware 3.0 is rolling out now.  It improves processing power by several orders of magnitude, and has plenty of room for the firmware to grow.

Quote
Elon Musk (@elonmusk) 4/8/19, 3:35 PM
The Tesla Full Self-Driving Computer now in production is at about 5% compute load for these tasks or 10% with full fail-over redundancy
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1115337505824432128
< How does the redundancy work? Multiple neural networks working at the same time?
EM: Two, independent system-on-chip architecture, with each SoC having two NN accelerators that can perform simultaneous health-check calculations to protect against a soft error

Tesla Hardware 3 upgrade can be conducted by mobile service team, says Elon Musk
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-hardware-3-upgrade-mobile-service-installation/
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1881 on: April 09, 2019, 09:14:48 PM »
I honestly can't fathom how you believe this. Has that sort of a set up ever been done? NO. So why you casually suggest it will this time?!?

Easy really.  The local Mayor committed to it, the local construction teams are running at least a Year ahead of the best Western comparable equivalent in construction and there is no reason to believe that either Tesla or China will not start the equipment build out when they said they will.

Over and above that, the same facilities already exist in the USA and this is a repeat, not a new build.  Repeated infrastructure tends to come in up to 5 times faster than new builds where there are unknowns.

Of course I fully understand that this has nothing to do with the ability of Tesla to start producing vehicles at the back end of Q3.  Nothing at all!  But I thought I'd say it just the same.
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1882 on: April 09, 2019, 09:20:30 PM »

Tesla Autopilot is not static.  Besides continual software updates, the program is a neural net, continully learning and changing, using the experience of the entire fleet.  And Tesla techs looks at the data when drivers disengage Autopilot, so they can help the program learn how to handle edge cases.  So many videos of people testing autopilot on roads they know, saying, “AP has always had a problem with this curve — but not any more!”

This is one of the biggest differences between this kind of vehicle and traditional vehicles.  After you have bought it, the vehicle gains additional capabilities without having to buy a new one.  It is so much more than just updating your satnav, it is actual driving capabilities which keep on upgrading.

The difference should be obvious.  It will be one day.
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1883 on: April 10, 2019, 12:33:34 AM »
I honestly can't fathom how you believe this. Has that sort of a set up ever been done? NO. So why you casually suggest it will this time?!?

The Gigafactory 3 construction to date has already totally annihilated your claim that Tesla will only have a “muddy field” there this time next year when their loan comes due.  So it’s your beliefs that need to change, not ours.
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1884 on: April 10, 2019, 01:49:24 AM »
Ford says, “We overestimated,” days before Tesla Autonomy Investor Day
 ;D ::)

Quote
Keith Naughton (@KeithNaughton) 4/9/19, 1:26 PM
BREAKING: @Ford CEO Tamps Down Expectations for First #SelfDrivingCars ‘We overestimated the arrival of autonomous vehicles’
https://twitter.com/keithnaughton/status/1115667213321633793
Link to Bloomberg article at this link.

Quote
b_felix (@b_felix) 4/9/19, 3:46 PM
This race isn't won yet, but I find it interesting that the one company that isn't reducing scope and 'managing expectations' is the company that is doing it differently than everyone else. In a way that literally everyone in the industry said was impossible.
https://twitter.com/b_felix/status/1115702638107025408
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1885 on: April 10, 2019, 05:49:50 AM »
I honestly can't fathom how you believe this. Has that sort of a set up ever been done? NO. So why you casually suggest it will this time?!?

The Gigafactory 3 construction to date has already totally annihilated your claim that Tesla will only have a “muddy field” there this time next year when their loan comes due.  So it’s your beliefs that need to change, not ours.


"totally annihilated your claim that Tesla will only have a “muddy field” there this time next year"
 
nice try, but I never said that.
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1886 on: April 10, 2019, 12:37:45 PM »
Lurk, the total fleet mileage hit 10 billion miles in Nov last year.  Also Tesla hit 1bn miles on Autopilot las year.

Source was Electret.

According to Wikipedia, the Model S death rate, whilst on Autopilot, is 2 and the Model X death rate, whilst driving on Autopilot is 1.  This seems to match with the 320m mile claim by Tesla, if they are talking about Autopilot only.

Out of 1bn road miles driven, that is not high.

I can't find the total Tesla death rate for all models, however, if this article is right and we are talking about only 8 fatalities in 10bn road miles across the whole fleet, then the fatality rate is somewhere around one fatality every 1 1/4 billion miles. Which means that Musk's tweet that Autopilot is safer than human control is not quite fitting. But you would need to drill down into the details to see why.  Apples for Oranges comparisons being one.  Like the driver who was crushed by a block of concrete, for one, or comparing highway driving with billions of miles in city commute driving.

The bigger issue with Autopilot is that, in every fatality case, the driver ignored warnings to pay attention.  Autopilot is not a self driving technology, it is a driver assistance technology.  Waymo, on auditing their drivers, found that level2/3 systems were being abused as if they were full level 4/5 self driving systems.  Leading Waymo to the conclusion that you can't trust humans to drive cars in any situation, assisted or otherwise.  Humans always push the rules and suffer the consequences.

Why do I think this is "on topic"?  The success, or eventual failure, of Tesla will be driven by their ability to keep on the disruptive technology curve.  It gives them an edge with technology people want to own and use. If Tesla can't make a compelling business case for the technology in their vehicles being far ahead of the competition, then their "brand image" will start to slide and Tesla does not have enough margin (yet), to slug it out with the incumbents on a level playing field.

The best thing for Tesla, today, is that the incumbents are spending more than half their time trying to work out how to protect the ICE revenues (which are keeping them afloat), whilst moving the customer base to EV.

In short, incumbent vehicle manufacturers don't want their EV's to be significantly better than their ICE's because they can't produce enough of them to fulfil that level of demand, once created and could lose even more customers to Tesla.

Tesla, on the other hand, has only one way to go.  Up.  Driven by every piece of technology and perceived benefit they can sell.

Musk, as usual, is saying one thing whilst providing insufficient data to see the whole picture as it is.  As usual, Musk will probably be proven correct in the end, but only by diving into such minute hair splitting as is only enjoyed by financial auditors or lawyers.

In broad he is correct. Tesla's have a better safety record than the average car fleet. Which is around 11 years old.

What those who campaign on vehicle safety fail to acknowledge is that the very largest falls in deaths on the roads have already been seen.  They were achieved with seat belts.  Everything else has been incremental and speed is the biggest red herring of all.  The next largest fall in deaths on the roads will happen when humans are no longer driving the vehicles. But I won't see that fully in my life time.
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1887 on: April 10, 2019, 12:40:48 PM »
Tesla: Cutting Sales Staff Will Cripple Growth Potential
Apr. 9, 2019 7:58 PM ET|
123 comments
Tesla has started off Q2 with fresh cuts to sales staff. Brick-and-mortar stores already were in peril thanks to a new strategy to move all sales online.

Cuts had been slowed in late March due to a quarter-end deliveries rush. With Q1 finished, the cuts have recommenced.

What I don't see is how people can focus on one statistic and not on the whole range.

Tesla showrooms are primarily for Models S and X, the premium brands.  Model 3's are predominantly online purchases.

The biggest fall in sales were in models S and X.  So, logically, the footprint of stores and sales staff needs to shrink to accommodate that drop in demand for the premium models.

When this happens, Tesla is identified as failing because of it.

Beats me.
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1888 on: April 10, 2019, 01:11:51 PM »
Why do I think this is "on topic"?  The success, or eventual failure, of Tesla will be driven by their ability to keep on the disruptive technology curve.

Okay, now try to keep it shorter and link some more to other people's thoughts (in articles, op-eds, YouTube videos etc) instead of your own.
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1889 on: April 10, 2019, 03:13:58 PM »
I honestly can't fathom how you believe this. Has that sort of a set up ever been done? NO. So why you casually suggest it will this time?!?

The Gigafactory 3 construction to date has already totally annihilated your claim that Tesla will only have a “muddy field” there this time next year when their loan comes due.  So it’s your beliefs that need to change, not ours.


"totally annihilated your claim that Tesla will only have a “muddy field” there this time next year"
 
nice try, but I never said that.

Nice try, but yes, you did.  Several times.

Quote
Negative one billion percent chance.

How can anyone possibly believe a muddy field is going to be a factory in 2 months? Just absurd.
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2406.msg191306.html#msg191306

Quote
The loan is due in less than a year, lol. Build a factory from a mud field, bring in equipment, get an auto assembly line operating, make enough cars at enough margin to pay back half a billion, ALL IN LESS THAN A YEAR. …
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2406.msg191502.html#msg191502

Quote
In 1 year, Tesla will own 0% of the mud field. And Tesla will be seen as a mix of Enron, Theranos, and DeLorean. ...
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2406.msg191504.html#msg191504
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1890 on: April 10, 2019, 03:40:51 PM »
Guys and gals, please, just post the propaganda. I don't want to see anymore 1000-word back-and-forths.
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1891 on: April 10, 2019, 03:48:55 PM »
Tesla Semi-like aerodynamic trucks will be mandated in Europe to make roads safer
Quote
Trucks that look similar to the Tesla Semi will soon be the norm in Europe, with members of the European Parliament voting for a law that will require manufacturers to produce vehicles that are more aerodynamic and energy efficient. It is estimated that by adopting these changes, the region’s long-haul industry will produce less carbon dioxide, consume less fuel, and even save lives.
...
This recent regulation, as well as the hesitation from the European Automobile Manufacturers Association, all but opens a large market for electric trucks like the Tesla Semi, which already conforms to the design suggested in the new regulations. Add the benefit of the Semi’s low operating cost and its zero-emissions due to its all-electric construction, and the vehicle all but becomes tailor-fit for Europe changing trucking market.

It’s not just Tesla that can take advantage of Europe’s new initiative, either, as companies like hydrogen-electric truck maker Nikola could also deploy its aerodynamic long-haulers like the Nikola One and Nikola Two to the region. Nevertheless, Nikola might need to revisit its plans for Europe, as the vehicle it created for the region, the Nikola Tre, features a conventional brick-like design.
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-semi-aerodynamic-trucks-mandated-europe-safety/
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1892 on: April 10, 2019, 04:03:19 PM »
U.S. Lawmakers Introduce Bill to Boost Electric Car Tax Credits
Quote
...
Both GM and Tesla have been lobbying Congress for more than a year to extend or expand the EV tax credit.

GM’s credit drops to $1,875 in October and will completely disappear by April 2020, while Tesla’s credit falls to $1,875 in July and expires at the end of the year.
https://www.usnews.com/news/top-news/articles/2019-04-10/exclusive-us-lawmakers-introduce-bill-to-boost-electric-car-tax-credits

GM has stopped production of the Volt.  The Bolt has sold a paltry 4,300 in Q1 2019. 
Tesla sold about 30,000 EVs in the US in Q1.  Guess which automaker will gain more customers if this measure goes into force?

Edit: meant to say, “Guess which automaker will gain the most customers if this measure goes into force?”  ;)
« Last Edit: April 10, 2019, 04:10:13 PM by Sigmetnow »
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1893 on: April 10, 2019, 04:16:28 PM »
Guess which automaker will gain more customers if this measure goes into force?

Daimler?

Daimler sold a little over 1,000 EVs in the US in Q1.  Guess again.

https://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1894 on: April 10, 2019, 05:32:12 PM »

I am quite content to sit and wait for the end of May 2019, to see if

Tesla's Shanghai assembly plant to be completed in May by Sigmetnow March 06

That wasn't what I was posting.

https://insideevs.com/tesla-gigafactory-3-new-video/

Quote
This is incredible! I never thought the first stage of the factory would be completed by May has said by Shangai Mayor because it seemed so unrealistic. But now it seems is going to be a reality! There’s a report published on Teslarati of a meeting between Tesla President of Automotive Jerome Guillen and Shanghai Deputy Mayor Wu Qing on 2 April about the possibility of starting installation of veichle production equipment in May too, as soon as the first part of the building is completed.

Plus talking about production beginning in Q3 with ramp up in Q4.

At the rate they are going this is not hard to envision.
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1895 on: April 10, 2019, 05:34:33 PM »
Guys and gals, please, just post the propaganda. I don't want to see anymore 1000-word back-and-forths.

That's the problem Neven.  It is propaganda with a 100% bias in most cases, whichever way it is biased.  There is very little actual analysis going on, just pushing of "facts" by one side or another to "prove a point".  Whichever side pushes the facts out gets shredded by the other side for "missing the detail".

The instances of reasoned and carefully thought out articles to link to are in the lower single digit percentile.

But, I guess, we can try.
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1896 on: April 10, 2019, 05:53:03 PM »
I also feel most Tesla articles are biased either too positive or too negative, and I prefer to add my own (objective?) analysis from time to time. I do try to keep it short though.

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1897 on: April 10, 2019, 05:57:55 PM »
Analysis is one thing, rants and endless discussions are another. That is why I've set the parameters of this thread the way I have. I personally am interested in the numbers (production, stock market, etc) and some of the gossip. If people want to endlessly discuss why and how Tesla/Musk will fail/win, there are plenty of other places on the Internet for that.
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1898 on: April 10, 2019, 06:09:17 PM »
...
Quote
This is incredible! I never thought the first stage of the factory would be completed by May has said by Shangai Mayor because it seemed so unrealistic. But now it seems is going to be a reality! There’s a report published on Teslarati of a meeting between Tesla President of Automotive Jerome Guillen and Shanghai Deputy Mayor Wu Qing on 2 April about the possibility of starting installation of veichle production equipment in May too, as soon as the first part of the building is completed.

Plus talking about production beginning in Q3 with ramp up in Q4.

At the rate they are going this is not hard to envision.

Yes.  Building shell complete in May, allowing final assembly of cars from imported sections — reference the Tilburg factory, or the Tent in Fremont.  Production lines installed and in operation by Q4.

Quote
Quote
Elon Musk (@elonmusk) 4/9/19, 12:58 PM
Building primary structure completion seems on track for May, but then it will take several months to install & activate factory equipment
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1115660171542327296

< Are you doing exact copy of existing lines (meaning can reuse validation plans, existing process, training, etc)?
Quote
Elon Musk (@elonmusk) 4/9/19, 3:11 PM
No, it’s better
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1115693611494981638
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1899 on: April 11, 2019, 04:45:40 PM »
FUD Alert prior to Q1 earnings report.  And perhaps Panasonic throwing some shade over its “special relationship” with Tesla, now that Tesla is seeing other battery makers? ;)
“Panasonic says reviewing further investment in Tesla Gigafactory”

Tesla battery partner Panasonic will ‘study investments over 35 GWh’ for Gigafactory 1
Quote
“We will, of course, continue to make new investments in Gigafactory 1, as needed. However, we think there is far more output to be gained from improving existing production equipment than was previously estimated,” a Tesla spokesperson said.

Following reports from the Nikkei Asian Review alleging that Panasonic and Tesla have decided to freeze investments on Gigafactory 1, the Japanese battery provider has stated that it is studying further investments for battery cell production in the Nevada-based facility.

Citing no sources, the Nikkei report claimed that financial problems have forced a rethink of Tesla and Panasonic’s plan to increase Gigafactory 1’s capacity by 50% next year. The facility reportedly has a capacity of 35 GWh today, and plans had intended for this to be raised to 54 GWh by 2020.
...
The Nikkei Asian Review is an established Japanese news publication, and the publication has cited insiders from Panasonic in the past. Nevertheless, some aspects of the recent report about Gigafactory 1 are a bit strange. Apart from the lack of sources, the report also notes that Panasonic will suspend its investment for Gigafactory 3 in China. Tesla is yet to announce its battery partner for Gigafactory 3, and speculations have pointed to local battery suppliers being tapped for the upcoming facility.

Panasonic’s involvement in Tesla Energy was also not mentioned, despite Tesla indicating that demand for its battery storage products like the Powerwall 2 remains strong.

Panasonic is currently Tesla’s sole battery partner, with the company producing cells for the electric car maker’s vehicles like the Model S, Model 3, and Model X, as well as energy storage products like the Powerwall 2 home battery unit.
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-panasonic-gigafactory-1-investment-nikkei/

Quote
"Panasonic established a battery production capacity of 35GWh in Tesla's Gigafactory 1 by the end of March 2019 in line with growing demand," Panasonic said.
"Watching the demand situation, Panasonic will study additional investments over 35GWh in collaboration with Tesla."
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/panasonic-says-reviewing-further-investment-095238737.html

Quote
Panasonic is the exclusive battery cell supplier for Tesla, which in turn is Panasonic's biggest EV battery client. In February, Tesla said it had agreed to buy U.S. energy storage company Maxwell Technologies Inc, sending shares in Panasonic lower.

Chief Executive Elon Musk also said in November the U.S. company would manufacture all its battery modules and packs at its new Shanghai factory and planned to diversify its sources.
https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKCN1RN117

Quote
MacGyver (@MacGyver_BE) 4/11/19, 8:29 AM
So, in other words, Tesla and Panasonic will be able to considerably increase output without (much) further investments.
This is bad, right? 
(Do I smell Maxwell/zero cobalt?)
https://twitter.com/macgyver_be/status/1116317222736158720

Quote
James Hatfield (@_jameshatfield_) 4/11/19, 9:10 AM
What’s absurdly funny about this is that the real headline is “Tesla and Panasonic achieve planned 35GWh battery production output and consider increasing by 50% through 2020”
https://twitter.com/_jameshatfield_/status/1116327570759352321

Tesla is expected to report first-quarter earnings on April 24.

Quote
Mark Ellec (@ellec_uk) 4/11/19, 9:25 AM
Timing of $TSLA Q1 earnings a few days after the Autonomy day is interesting. Short's be like.. pic.twitter.com/w3tr3I8JA1
https://twitter.com/ellec_uk/status/1116331419893157890
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