Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Author Topic: Tesla glory/failure  (Read 185476 times)

GoSouthYoungins

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1259
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 83
  • Likes Given: 109
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1900 on: April 11, 2019, 05:13:24 PM »
Lurk, you are all alone now.

I drove in a Model S yesterday and WOW.

I pretty much agree that ICE vehicles are obsolete and by 2020 none will be sold.

Not sure why the Japanese pedos over at Panasonic haven't seen the light yet...

https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Companies/Tesla-and-Panasonic-freeze-spending-on-4.5bn-Gigafactory

"...concerns mount on Wall Street about weakening demand at Elon Musk's car company."
big time oops

GoSouthYoungins

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1259
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 83
  • Likes Given: 109
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1901 on: April 11, 2019, 05:22:19 PM »
What matters more: 1) profitability of a company saving the world, or 2) a couple clumsy workers cashing in on their incompetence?

Glad to see Elon knows what is more important to humanity. You wanna make an omelette, you gotta break some eggs! (Same with FSD, btw.)

https://www.revealnews.org/article/how-tesla-and-its-doctor-made-sure-injured-employees-didnt-get-workers-comp/

"It’s not unusual for employers to be pushy about how they want their workers’ injuries handled, Bonnet said. But the intensity of Tesla’s pressure, she said, combined with Besh’s willingness to let bottom-line concerns influence clinical decisions, made this situation different from any Bonnet had encountered."
big time oops

GoSouthYoungins

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1259
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 83
  • Likes Given: 109
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1902 on: April 11, 2019, 05:26:16 PM »
FUD alert!!!

https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-standard-range-model-3-customers-face-extended-wait-2019-4

"This sure as hell sounds like a bait-and-switch..."

When a customer gets bait and switched into an AMAZING car, they should be happy about it. That the bait was slightly more appealing is just part of life. Everyone has to deal with disappointment now and again...the key is keeping the big picture in mind.
« Last Edit: April 11, 2019, 08:38:07 PM by GoSouthYoungins »
big time oops

GoSouthYoungins

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1259
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 83
  • Likes Given: 109
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1903 on: April 11, 2019, 05:31:17 PM »
now that Tesla is seeing other battery makers?

First of all: I've had my mind changed by a firsthand experience inside a Tesla and I'm on your team now.

You stay much more up to date than I am able to on a lot of these things. Who is Tesla going to be sourcing batteries from other than Panasonic? I assume there is an 8K filing you can point me to.

Also, do you think it is possible that Tesla (w/ Maxwell's help) has developed a battery which is an order of magnitude better than what Panasonic can produce? Is the Maxwell deal done yet?
big time oops

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 15870
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 496
  • Likes Given: 232
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1904 on: April 11, 2019, 06:05:18 PM »
Tesla (TSLA) to hold Q1 2019 financial results and earnings call on April 24
Quote
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) has announced that it would be posting its financial results for Q1 2019 after the market closes on Wednesday, April 24, 2019. The company would be issuing a brief advisory with a link to its Q1 2019 Update Letter, which will be accessible from Tesla’s Investor Relations website. A live Q&A session is set for 2:30 p.m. Pacific Time (5:30 p.m. Eastern Time) to discuss the electric car and energy company’s financial results and outlook.
...
What is rather interesting is that Tesla is conducting its Q1 earnings call earlier than expected. Tesla usually releases its first-quarter earnings call in early May, as could be seen in the date of Q1 2018’s Q&A session. The company previously held earlier-than-expected earnings calls in October 2016, October 2018, and January 2019, and those quarters all proved to be profitable.

It should be noted that while the early date of Q1’s earnings call is a rather bullish sign, Elon Musk himself has been very conservative about the first quarter. When Tesla launched the $35,000 Standard Model 3 in March, Elon Musk noted that he does not expect the company to be profitable in the first quarter. “Given that there is a lot happening in Q1, and we are taking a lot of one time charges, there are a lot of challenges getting cars to China and Europe, we do not expect to be profitable. We do think that profitability in Q2 is likely,” the Tesla CEO said. ...
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-tsla-q1-2019-earnings-call-date/
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

NeilT

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1291
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 110
  • Likes Given: 8
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1905 on: April 11, 2019, 06:48:14 PM »
Analysis is one thing, rants and endless discussions are another. That is why I've set the parameters of this thread the way I have. I personally am interested in the numbers (production, stock market, etc) and some of the gossip. If people want to endlessly discuss why and how Tesla/Musk will fail/win, there are plenty of other places on the Internet for that.

True, but then you just wind up with a "he said/she said" scenario with both sides throwing information at each other and tub thumping with no real thinking going on in the middle.

So let's throw an analysis by someone else into the picture over an issue which has been trumpeted as "the incipient demise of Tesla" all over again.

https://www.nasdaq.com/article/can-teslas-tsla-35k-model-3-drive-the-stock-higher-cm1109285

On the drop in the Tesla share price, the challenge of EV credits going away, the removal of Tesla outlets and the reduction in all Tesla model prices.

It has an extremely salient point on the direction of Tesla.

Quote
Making the Model 3 more affordable and thus more mainstream, has been the point all along in enabling Tesla to compete with the likes for Ford (F) and General Motors (GM). For that to happen, it required a radical shift in the company’s strategy

It ends with

Quote
Sure, the company must be able to execute on this strategy. But in its attempt, Tesla not only would have generated higher demand at the lower price point, it would also be able to maintain profit margins, even after a federal tax credit was cut in half this year. As such, with Tesla stock down 26% from its 52-week high of $387, the risk-versus-reward scenario now favors the long side.

In short, the shorts are out on a limb (pun intended).

For once this is not my opinion, it is the opinion of a market analyst.
Being right too soon is socially unacceptable.

Robert A. Heinlein

GoSouthYoungins

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1259
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 83
  • Likes Given: 109
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1906 on: April 11, 2019, 08:53:07 PM »
Fools over at BMW are still designing ICE vehicles. They literally cannot wrap their minds around what is happening globally and are blind the EV revolution transpiring everywhere (not just California and Norway).

Either they get with the times and move their entire fleet to EV (possibly with solar roofs) by the early 2020s or they will go the way of the dinosaur.

Also, just kinda a funny aside. The German dummies believe their plant in South Carolina is impressive. Ironically, they have wasted $10 Billion developing the facility (Tesla builds these for $1 Billion one year loan). Best of all, they actually think they did it quickly...

"Fastest factory start-up in automotive history—a record 23 months from site groundbreaking to first car produced."

Blahahaha. Tesla will do the same but in 5 months. The future baby!

https://www.bmwusfactory.com/manufacturing/production-overview/
big time oops

GoSouthYoungins

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1259
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 83
  • Likes Given: 109
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1907 on: April 11, 2019, 09:04:26 PM »

In short, the shorts are out on a limb (pun intended).


I'm starting to understand. Tesla at a $40B valuation has a 100x upside, and the way shorting works there is no limit on loses if the SP goes WAY up.

Plus, google or apple are sitting on large piles of cash and might buy Tesla for a lot more than the company is valued at today. And we never got the details about the mystery $420 buyout...Although it doesn't seem to be going thru currently, I would not be surprised if Musk is working something out behind the scenes. Most likely it would be the Saudis or SoftBank.

Finally, once FSD is ready in a few months ago, Tesla will also be able to use any vehicle as an autonomous taxi. OR they could just sell the tech for like $100B. Apple Autonomous car anyone? They need a new product now that iPhone sales have plateaued. Apple has almost a quarter trillion in cash so $100B for Tesla or its tech (AI or battery or both) isn't that unreasonable. (Warren Buffet is also overdue or acquiring "an elephant" and Berkshires has mountains of cash.) If Tesla really want to be stingy they could keep all of their tech and just sell the data from their billions of miles driven. This would likely be worth the current $40B valuation by itself. If another company thinks they have a good enough neural net but lacks the data to input, Tesla might be able to cash in bigly.
big time oops

Neven

  • Administrator
  • First-year ice
  • *****
  • Posts: 7200
    • View Profile
    • Arctic Sea Ice Blog
  • Liked: 730
  • Likes Given: 472
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1908 on: April 11, 2019, 11:03:57 PM »
Quote
Finally, once FSD is ready in a few months ago,

Thanks for the laughs today, GSY!  :D
Il faut comparer, comparer, comparer, et cultiver notre jardin

GoSouthYoungins

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1259
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 83
  • Likes Given: 109
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1909 on: April 12, 2019, 02:51:41 AM »
Please help find a positive interpretation for this Panasonic news! Seems like they are saying the demand isn't there...even though we know (from Elon) that there is ludicrous demand. So why is Panasonic backing away from these sales? Maybe cuz Panasonic's battery segments have been operating at loses? But I don't think that anything changed, so this change of direction doesn't make sense.

https://www.latimes.com/business/autos/la-fi-hy-tesla-demand-model3-models-modelx-20190411-story.html

Tesla last year blamed Panasonic, not customer demand, for a flattening of Model S and X sales. The company said in a quarterly report that S and X sales were “constrained by the supply of cells” from Panasonic. The batteries in those cars are different from those installed in the Model 3.

After The Times reported a slowing of S and X demand in April 2018, a Tesla spokesman called the conclusion “blatantly inaccurate” and noted the battery constraint language. The Times then called Panasonic. The company said “Panasonic has not been requested to increase capacity. In short, Panasonic is supplying cells as planned.”
big time oops

Neven

  • Administrator
  • First-year ice
  • *****
  • Posts: 7200
    • View Profile
    • Arctic Sea Ice Blog
  • Liked: 730
  • Likes Given: 472
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1910 on: April 12, 2019, 10:20:53 AM »
Obviously they MUST be right, right? They're an "expert authority" right, and you would not have posted that if they were not, or say a little "flaky" some days?  :P

That's not what this thread is about. The advantage of links to articles and op-eds, etc, is that the authors can't talk back, which prevents endless, repetitive discussions.
Il faut comparer, comparer, comparer, et cultiver notre jardin

NeilT

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1291
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 110
  • Likes Given: 8
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1911 on: April 12, 2019, 11:58:48 AM »
That's not what this thread is about. The advantage of links to articles and op-eds, etc, is that the authors can't talk back, which prevents endless, repetitive discussions.

True Neven. But actually the very Best way to prove the point is to go away and come back in 9 months.

It would, however, make an extremely quiet discussion....
Being right too soon is socially unacceptable.

Robert A. Heinlein

NeilT

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1291
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 110
  • Likes Given: 8
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1912 on: April 12, 2019, 12:07:01 PM »
"Fastest factory start-up in automotive history—a record 23 months from site groundbreaking to first car produced."

You think you are being funny?

Apparently, the day after a No Deal Brexit, Airbus was going to revoke the UK contracts to produce wings and tails for their aircraft.  Apparently the factories were going to appear, by magic, along with the skilled workforce, the next day.  With no preparation or investment.

Now if we are talking farce, the ability of the Chinese to deliver something 3 times as fast as the Union constrained workforce in the US, has got to take a seat at the back of the bus compared to the FUD Being bandied about in other areas.
Being right too soon is socially unacceptable.

Robert A. Heinlein

NeilT

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1291
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 110
  • Likes Given: 8
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1913 on: April 12, 2019, 12:14:52 PM »
Eforelectric's analysis of the ModelS sales crash is quite compelling.

Quote
Tesla began manufacturing the Model S in 2012, and there haven’t been a whole lot of updates to it since then.  Besides a minor facelift when the Model X was released, Tesla’s flagship sedan still competes in the electric car market with a nearly 7-year-old interior and exterior, and that’s a huge deal.  There’s been talk of an interior refresh for the Model S in the past, but Tesla has not said much on the subject in recent months. 

Buyers could be waiting on this refresh and a much-needed hardware upgrade before pulling out their wallets to purchase a new Model S, or they could be just going straight for the Model 3 as an alternative, effectively cannibalizing sales.  The Model 3 boasts a better battery and range, autopilot upgrades, and a generally more up-to-date look with a lower price tag.   
Being right too soon is socially unacceptable.

Robert A. Heinlein

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 15870
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 496
  • Likes Given: 232
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1914 on: April 12, 2019, 12:16:19 PM »
Huge news:  Model 3 leasing in the U.S.; Autopilot now bundled as a standard feature for less cost; Standard Range Model 3 will be a completely software-limited version of Standard Range Plus, meaning it can be upgraded at any time.

Note the lease being offered does not even allow driver to buy the car at the end of the lease term, because “with full autonomy coming in the future via an over-the-air software update, we plan to use those vehicles in the Tesla ride-hailing network.”  Tesla is playing a completely different game vs the legacy non-software-enabled dumb ICE cars.  Investor Autonomy Demonstration Day April 22 should be a major wake-up call for the doubters!

An Update to Our Vehicle Lineup
Quote
Model 3 has been the best-selling premium car in the U.S. for the past three quarters, and we’ve heard from Model 3 owners around the world that they love their cars. It has the highest consumer satisfaction rating of any car in the world.

Today, we’re making some changes to online ordering to simplify vehicle choices and make Autopilot more affordable.

All Tesla vehicles now come with Autopilot bundled as a standard feature for less than the prior cost of the option. For example, Model 3 Standard Plus used to cost $37,500, plus $3,000 for the Autopilot option. It now costs $39,500, with Autopilot included.

We think including Autopilot is very important because our data strongly indicates that the chance of an accident is much lower when Autopilot is enabled. Autopilot also dramatically improves the quality of the driving experience, especially in heavy traffic, as thousands of our customers frequently describe online.

Leasing
Beginning today, customers in the U.S. will be able to lease Model 3 for a small down payment and competitive monthly payments. Customers can choose any Model 3 variant and select an annual mileage option of 10,000, 12,000, or 15,000 miles.

Please note, customers who choose leasing over owning will not have the option to purchase their car at the end of the lease, because with full autonomy coming in the future via an over-the-air software update, we plan to use those vehicles in the Tesla ride-hailing network. Customers can visit tesla.com/3 now to lease a Model 3.

Options
Last quarter, we introduced two new Model 3 variants with more competitive pricing than ever before – Standard and Standard Plus. Since then, Standard Plus has sold at more than six times the rate of Standard, far exceeding our expectations.

Given the popularity of the Standard Plus relative to the Standard, we have made the decision to simplify our production operations to better optimize cost, minimize complexity and streamline operations. As a result, Model 3 Standard will now be a software-limited version of the Standard Plus, and we are taking it off the online ordering menu, which just means that to get it, customers will need to call us or visit any one of the several hundred Tesla stores. Deliveries of Model 3 Standard will begin this weekend.

Its range will be limited by 10%, and several features will be disabled via software (including our onboard music streaming service, navigation with live traffic visualization, and heated seats). Similar to other software-limited vehicles produced in the past, Standard customers will have the option to upgrade to a Standard Plus at any time. Similarly, anyone who has already bought Standard Plus and wants to convert to Standard is welcome to do so, and we will provide a refund for the difference in cost.

To further simplify our line-up, beginning today customers will also need to call or visit a Tesla store to get Model 3 Long Range Rear-Wheel Drive. We’re making these changes to ensure that our online order process is focused exclusively on the three Model 3 variants customers want most.
https://www.tesla.com/blog/update-our-vehicle-lineup
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

NeilT

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1291
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 110
  • Likes Given: 8
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1915 on: April 12, 2019, 12:20:56 PM »
the Union constrained workforce

Are you living in the 70s still?

Me? No.  I'm living in the 21st century where people take reality and call it BS then take rocket propelled idiocy and call it "Reality", then defend that reality to the death.....
Being right too soon is socially unacceptable.

Robert A. Heinlein

NeilT

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1291
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 110
  • Likes Given: 8
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1916 on: April 12, 2019, 12:22:03 PM »
Eforelectric also thinks that Musk may have the last laugh on Gigafactory3.


Quote
Skeptics initially mocked Elon Musk’s predictions that the factory would be up and running by the summer, but it looks like Musk just might be having the last laugh

So it's not just me.
Being right too soon is socially unacceptable.

Robert A. Heinlein

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 15870
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 496
  • Likes Given: 232
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1917 on: April 12, 2019, 01:55:54 PM »
Tesla opens orders for cheaper Model 3 version in Europe and China
Quote
Along with the changes to its vehicle lineup last night, Tesla also opened orders for a cheaper version of the Model 3 in European markets and China.

Tesla first opened Model 3 orders in Europe and China late last year, but it only made the two higher-end versions of the Model 3 available: Long Range Dual Motor AWD and Model 3 Performance.

As we reported over the last few weeks, those two versions of the car alone were enough to make Model 3 the best-selling EV in many European markets and even the best-selling car period in places like Norway and Switzerland after only a few weeks of deliveries.

Now Tesla is making the Model 3 Standard Range Plus available in those markets. ...
https://electrek.co/2019/04/12/tesla-opens-orders-cheaper-model-3-europe-china/
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

oren

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4529
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 901
  • Likes Given: 1300
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1918 on: April 12, 2019, 03:44:13 PM »
Tesla's product lineup and sales strategy changes are a management debacle.
The $35k base Model 3 is now near-dead, and I suspect soon will be dead. When I realized/guessed the base model SR had a software-locked battery of the SR+ Model 3 (which is the same as the base SR Model Y), I had a feeling this might happen to streamline production, and that in any case it showed they weren't planning to sell it in volume. But Musk/Tesla could not bring themselves to admit that they can't make enough profit from the base model, so they made it available and then unofficially killed it.

Bundling autopilot into all Model 3 versions also makes sense but smacks of margin pressures. Cheapest Model 3 is now $39.5 (SR+ with autopilot). Not good for expanding sales, though possibly better for profits.

The strategy now kind of makes sense, but the way Tesla arrived to it after two months of constant changes is simply ridiculous. Very poor management. It raises the probability of Tesla failure, as it also strongly hints at high internal pressure, in addition to reducing credibility and alienating existing and potential customers.

magnamentis

  • Guest
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1919 on: April 12, 2019, 03:51:50 PM »
The strategy now kind of makes sense, but the way Tesla arrived to it after two months of constant changes is simply ridiculous. Very poor management. It raises the probability of Tesla failure, as it also strongly hints at high internal pressure, in addition to reducing credibility and alienating existing and potential customers.

a lot has been said in this thread while what you just said in the quoted text is and has always been my take. the rest is kind of by-work, distractions an swings to all sides.

at the end it's about whether a product is good and accepted by the public and once this is the case it's about management which in this case is poor as as you say and the final result will reflect that, be it a buy-out, merger, take-over or bankruptcy. which of those no-one can predict with certainty.

Archimid

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2400
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 303
  • Likes Given: 184
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1920 on: April 12, 2019, 04:00:40 PM »
Tesla glory or failure depends on their capacity to adapt. What you see as management chaos, I see as adaptation.

There are 35k Model 3's available if you go to a Tesla store. These will be software locked SR+. This means they have inventory cars they want to sell, even if they the margins take a hit. But this won't last long. This is an amazingly great deal. These software locked batteries will likely last many decades.

This is a normal practice for all businesses to increase demand. They still have the advertisement demand lever to pull.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

GoSouthYoungins

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1259
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 83
  • Likes Given: 109
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1921 on: April 12, 2019, 05:02:52 PM »
Tesla glory or failure depends on their capacity to adapt. What you see as management chaos, I see as adaptation.

Strongly agree. A company needs to be able to change prices, quality, messaging, strategy all within the time it takes a CEO to get high and come back down. We are almost 1/5th of the way thru the century and things change fast. Static companies will perish.

big time oops

GoSouthYoungins

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1259
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 83
  • Likes Given: 109
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1922 on: April 12, 2019, 05:19:17 PM »
The $35k base Model 3 is now near-dead, and I suspect soon will be dead. They made it available and then unofficially killed it.

You are missing the big picture. The only reason the $35k Standard model 3 is dead is because Tesla has improved it. When I go to order a Tesla (which I'm going to be doing soon, as well as advising my friends and family to follow suit) the price is $31,450* for a Standard Plus. So basically it is $3,550 cheaper and with more range. Elon crushes expectations again. Not sure what the * is, but I'm guessing it references some extra goodies Tesla throws in...I'm hoping for a flame-thrower to help with my spring weeding.

the base model SR had a software-locked battery of the SR+ Model 3 (which is the same as the base SR Model Y).

This is ridiculous. Why would Tesla build a big battery and then software lock it into a small battery. That would drastically increase the weigh of the car, the cost to produce it, it's carbon footprint, AND pointlessly decrease performance and range. Does BMW embed an anvil in the floor of their vehicles? NO! Please stop the FUD.

The strategy now kind of makes sense, but the way Tesla arrived to it after two months of constant changes is simply ridiculous. Very poor management. It raises the probability of Tesla failure, as it also strongly hints at high internal pressure, in addition to reducing credibility and alienating existing and potential customers.

Has it ever occurred to you that the problem is with people questioning Tesla and not with those running Tesla. Incredible things can be achieved if people get behind an idea. If everywhere who wants a better world supports Tesla, they will succeed. An outsider layman's perspective the their management is "very poor" DOES NOT HELP. In reality, it is beyond poor and almost certainly criminal, but that is only a problem if people decide it is a problem. Perception is key. Act accordingly. The future of the world depends on it.
big time oops

GoSouthYoungins

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1259
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 83
  • Likes Given: 109
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1923 on: April 12, 2019, 06:06:59 PM »
Now that Elon is pulling the final demand lever, leasing, I expect an order of magnitude increase in the exponential nature of model 3 production growth.

(In theory Tesla could also start doing traditional advertising for one more lever, but Tesla gets tons of free press already and I don't think they have the spare profitability to spend cash on ads.)

Say goodbye legacy autos. Tesla leasing rentals are the new reality. Just imagine, soon anyone will be able to cheaply rent a Tesla and make passive income from the robo-taxi function currently in it's long-term-extended-roll-out.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-leasing/tesla-begins-offering-leases-for-model-3-idUSKCN1RO0AT

Tesla said its customers in the United States would be able to lease any Model 3 variant for a small down payment and monthly payments thereafter, but they will not have the option to buy the car at the end of the lease.

Smart of Tesla to keep the cars on their books. Otherwise they can't borrow against them. Leverage is key to long term stability.
big time oops

oren

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4529
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 901
  • Likes Given: 1300
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1924 on: April 12, 2019, 06:29:31 PM »
GSY, your new reverse spamming thing is getting old fast.

Archimid

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2400
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 303
  • Likes Given: 184
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1925 on: April 12, 2019, 08:26:32 PM »
If you are interested in AI and self driving cars this is a must watch. It is a one on one interview with Elon Musk about AI in general and the specific case of Autopilot. 

I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 15870
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 496
  • Likes Given: 232
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1926 on: April 12, 2019, 09:58:50 PM »
If you are interested in AI and self driving cars this is a must watch. It is a one on one interview with Elon Musk about AI in general and the specific case of Autopilot. 
...

“Buying a Tesla now is an investment in an appreciating asset”. Because an ordinary car without the hardware for autonomy is, and will be, a depreciating asset.
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 15870
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 496
  • Likes Given: 232
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1927 on: April 12, 2019, 10:06:19 PM »
Y’all seem to have missed this:

“Last quarter, we introduced two new Model 3 variants with more competitive pricing than ever before – Standard and Standard Plus. Since then, Standard Plus has sold at more than six times the rate of Standard, far exceeding our expectations.
https://www.tesla.com/blog/update-our-vehicle-lineup

Makes perfect sense to optimize for the Standard Plus!
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 15870
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 496
  • Likes Given: 232
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1928 on: April 12, 2019, 11:43:48 PM »
Tesla’s prices change, but the difference is that their price is clearly stated on their website.  Other automakers and dealers change their prices and discounts daily, even hourly, from salesperson to salesperson, and from customer to customer — you could pay thousands more than someone else did that morning for the exact same model, and never know it.

Quote
Elon Musk (@elonmusk) 4/12/19, 2:24 PM
Other automakers change prices constantly & substantially by varying rebates & discounts according to negotiating strength of buyer. Tesla is transparent & consistent.
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1116769167774863360

——-
Watch Tesla’s live demo of Full Self Driving in action on April 22. 

Tesla’s inclusion of Autopilot on every car unravels a long-term Full Self-Driving strategy
Quote
Tesla’s proficiency as a company that develops self-driving technology is usually overlooked. Tesla is currently valued at around $46 billion, which is not bad for a carmaker, but it is a valuation that seriously undercuts the worth of Autopilot’s real-world driving data. Tesla quite literally has over a billion miles of data from its ever-growing fleet, which helps the company’s vehicles operate their driver-assist features in non-geofenced areas. Waymo, a leader in self-driving technology, is currently still mastering geofenced driving, but Morgan Stanley already estimates the company to be worth $175 billion, over three times the current valuation of Tesla.
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-autopilot-on-every-car-full-self-driving-strategy/

——-
As to adding Autopilot to Tesla’s other standard safety features (Automatic Emergency Braking, Front Collision Warning, Side Collision Warning, Auto High Beams), let’s compare to Mercedes:
Quote
ValueAnalyst (@ValueAnalyst1) 4/3/19, 1:00 PM
In addition to poisoning you, this is how @MercedesBenz gets you to pay double for less: To match @Tesla's free "Standard Safety Features," Mercedes asks buyers to add its "Driver Assistance Package," which then triggers other forced add-ons! How much is your safety worth?
https://twitter.com/valueanalyst1/status/1113486328551956484
Image below.
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

oren

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4529
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 901
  • Likes Given: 1300
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1929 on: April 13, 2019, 12:26:09 AM »
Y’all seem to have missed this:

“Last quarter, we introduced two new Model 3 variants with more competitive pricing than ever before – Standard and Standard Plus. Since then, Standard Plus has sold at more than six times the rate of Standard, far exceeding our expectations.
https://www.tesla.com/blog/update-our-vehicle-lineup

Makes perfect sense to optimize for the Standard Plus!
That's a flawed metric as the SR hasn't been delivered yet, and people were probably waiting to see what the downgraded interior looked like before ordering.
I think it would have been better for Tesla to outright say that they can't make the Standard for enough profit, and are discontinuing it. In another year after improved cost efficiencies they could perhaps bring it back again.
For me the above quote smacks of evasiveness.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 15870
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 496
  • Likes Given: 232
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1930 on: April 13, 2019, 12:44:03 AM »
Y’all seem to have missed this:

“Last quarter, we introduced two new Model 3 variants with more competitive pricing than ever before – Standard and Standard Plus. Since then, Standard Plus has sold at more than six times the rate of Standard, far exceeding our expectations.
https://www.tesla.com/blog/update-our-vehicle-lineup

Makes perfect sense to optimize for the Standard Plus!
That's a flawed metric as the SR hasn't been delivered yet, and people were probably waiting to see what the downgraded interior looked like before ordering.
I think it would have been better for Tesla to outright say that they can't make the Standard for enough profit, and are discontinuing it. In another year after improved cost efficiencies they could perhaps bring it back again.
For me the above quote smacks of evasiveness.

There were photos of the interiors on the website.  Most buyers don’t take a test drive or even see the car before they take delivery, anyway.  (Tesla makes clear the car is returnable within one week of delivery, even after you put up to 1,000 miles on it.)  Six times as many people placed orders for the Standard Plus, when they could just as easily ordered the Standard.  (The Standard Plus is actually a better deal.)  I see no evidence of evasiveness.  Tesla can tell how many people went online and priced out what options, so they know the level of interest in each.  Does that work in Teslaks financial favor?  Yes.  Does it optimize the product most people are buying. Yes.
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 15870
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 496
  • Likes Given: 232
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1931 on: April 13, 2019, 12:46:07 AM »
In Norway, Model 3 now starts 377,020 Kroners, which is equal to about $44,375 USD.

Quote
Tesla Driver (@m_xalher) 4/12/19, 5:34 AM
«Now you can get a Tesla for less than 400,000 NOK». Headline news in Norwegian business daily DN now.
This will sell like pølse med lompe!
Full story: dn.no/motor/tesla/el…
https://twitter.com/m_xalher/status/1116635715994095616
Image below.
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

GoSouthYoungins

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1259
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 83
  • Likes Given: 109
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1932 on: April 13, 2019, 03:01:32 AM »
GSY, your new reverse spamming thing is getting old fast.

How do you differentiate? Just the poster?!? Genuinely. I am curious. The real brain of GSY.
big time oops

GoSouthYoungins

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1259
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 83
  • Likes Given: 109
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1933 on: April 13, 2019, 03:22:39 AM »
If you are interested in AI and self driving cars this is a must watch. It is a one on one interview with Elon Musk about AI in general and the specific case of Autopilot. 


I don't understand why the experts say this is a decade plus away...it is years ago. Tesla has been there for a long time. It has a FSD system that the bureaucrats (probably in the pocket of big oil) won't allow.

Tesla has been selling this futurely available tech for years. And they have admitted it will be ready years ago. The future is past. The time is now. We are the people we have been waiting for!!!

Tesla has over a billion miles driven. Problem solved.
big time oops

oren

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4529
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 901
  • Likes Given: 1300
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1934 on: April 13, 2019, 10:13:41 AM »
https://www.wired.com/story/tesla-shifts-gears-again-some-fans-losing-patience/
Quote
But for even dedicated customers like O’Roak—those who believe in the car company's mission of slowing climate change, saving the world, and having a hell of a good time doing it—the constant changes, which have accelerated since the introduction of the Model 3, can be a bit much. Kelley Blue Book’s Brauer suspects some buyers “are hesitant because they see that inconsistency with the pricing and model approach. It seems like every week there's a new plan.”

For a company where a lot of the marketing is done by its customers, this erosion of credibility is a danger.

5to10

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 120
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 4
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1935 on: April 13, 2019, 01:17:36 PM »
Sorry but who fucking cares?? It's too late for any of this horse shit to make a difference, this is just a goddamn Tesla ad at this point and has been for months.

Why is this forum a running fucking Tesla ad these days? Is there a concerted effort to turf this forum with political and corporate (See: Tesla) diatribe lately, because I click on recent posts these days and it's a whole lot different than the discussion even a year or two ago. Just constant political and corporate diatribe on this forum of late by the same few entities here.

Rob Dekker and Lurk you two are the fucking worst here. Its just a goddamn running stream of washed out nonsense because of you two pretty much every day on recent posts, sick of browsing this forum. The quality has declined severely over the past 2 yrs. It's become 20% arctic discussion and 80% tangential, largely irrelevant bullshit. Thank fucking christ "Buddy" seems to have disappeared because he was no better - all these people ever seem to do is comment on political/corporate bullshit.

This is a fucking joke, we know that we are far too deep in the shit with far to much inertia for switching over to EV's to matter at this point. Why is this even being discussed as if it's a realistic solution? Is this the arctic sea ice forum still, or the hopium addict network? Christ almighty
« Last Edit: April 13, 2019, 01:41:40 PM by 5to10 »

5to10

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 120
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 4
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1936 on: April 13, 2019, 01:43:03 PM »
bunch of irrelevant fucking bullshit about Tesla again

Just stop. Holy fuck, give it up. The emissions we would create switching over to EV like Tesla or any other, at this  point, means that this is all nothing more than completely useless pandering bullshit and anyone with a clue knows it. Either you are paid to plug Tesla here or you're just completely oblivious, or both.

Stop washing the forum out with corporate/political pointlessness.

You know how we have any chance at all? ZERO EMISSIONS. And even then it looks like that won't even save us anymore - the inertia is too strong. ZERO fucking emissions - not "Some emissions so we can make a bunch of Teslas now for rich people to unsustainably carry their fat lard asses 100km to work and back every day". ZERO EMISSIONS, NOW.

It's discussions like this that have really destroyed a lot of the credibility this forum once had. These are pipe dreams now. It's over. Quit presenting this shit as a solution only to further enrich billionaires who are not being straight with the world as to the efficacy of (see: completely ineffective at this point because we are past the point of more progress/more industry/BAU "But now with EV'S" being a viable solution) their "proposed solutions".
« Last Edit: April 13, 2019, 01:51:29 PM by 5to10 »

5to10

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 120
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 4
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1937 on: April 13, 2019, 01:57:05 PM »
Now that Elon is pulling the final demand lever, leasing, I expect an order of magnitude increase in the exponential nature of model 3 production growth.

(In theory Tesla could also start doing traditional advertising for one more lever, but Tesla gets tons of free press already and I don't think they have the spare profitability to spend cash on ads.)

Say goodbye legacy autos. Tesla leasing rentals are the new reality. Just imagine, soon anyone will be able to cheaply rent a Tesla and make passive income from the robo-taxi function currently in it's long-term-extended-roll-out.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-leasing/tesla-begins-offering-leases-for-model-3-idUSKCN1RO0AT

Tesla said its customers in the United States would be able to lease any Model 3 variant for a small down payment and monthly payments thereafter, but they will not have the option to buy the car at the end of the lease.

Smart of Tesla to keep the cars on their books. Otherwise they can't borrow against them. Leverage is key to long term stability.

Or is that Tesla leasing rentals ridesharing EVs is the new reality?

The Leasing, sorry, the Tesla Long Term Rental Plan (TLTRP) is a boon and so simple. I believe the facts speak for themselves as provided by Tesla rather than via somewhat dubious 3rd Parties.

From the Technology Marketing Behemoth, the Guru of Gurus in Sales Tactics - Tesla Motors:

So the basics:
Quote
The Tesla Team April 11, 2019
Leasing
Beginning today, customers in the U.S. will be able to lease Model 3 for a small down payment and competitive monthly payments. Customers can choose any Model 3 variant and select an annual mileage option of 10,000, 12,000, or 15,000 miles.

Please note, customers who choose leasing over owning will not have the option to purchase their car at the end of the lease, because with full autonomy coming in the future via an over-the-air software update, we plan to use those vehicles in the Tesla ride-hailing network. Customers can visit tesla.com/3 now to lease a Model 3.
https://www.tesla.com/blog/update-our-vehicle-lineup

Great let's go: for online US customers only
Step 1 https://www.tesla.com/model3/design#battery
Standard Range Plus (Fake Price $31,450*) Real price $39,500 (Bottom left)
Rear-Wheel Drive; Partial Premium Interior
Estimated delivery: 2-4 weeks
Next, Solid Black, 18’’ Aero Wheels; Next Interior, All Black; Next, Autopilot Included
Optional Extra, Add $5,000 includes standard Full Self-Driving Capability available now,
- Coming later this year (included in Price aka PNUL, Pay Now Use Later)
- 1. Recognize and respond to traffic lights and stop signs. 2. Automatic driving on city streets.
- Includes the Full Self Driving Computer - NOT Selected
- (To Install FSDC after Delivery Add $7,000)
 
Next, Summary, select LEASE Tab (aka TLTRP)
$3,000 down, 36 months, 10,000 miles (per Year)
Est. lease payment $504 /mo
Calculating that manually 36 Months = $18, 144 + $3,000 = $21,144

Normal Delivery & Docs charge when purchasing is $1,200 - no information if this also applies to a Lease provision. Nor who Pays the annual State Veh. Registration/Insurance Fees, likely the Leaseholder as would normally be the case for Leases. (?)


Cost per Mile (under 30,000) minimum Average $0.7048 per mile - cheaper than an UberX

Actually I am a high user, so I would like the 3rd option on offer - 15,000 miles per Year.
Next, .... Next, .... Next .... OOPS there is no Next. There is no other Option available.

OK then. Pause. Aha! Eureka ... Bottom Middle active link "Estimate payment"

Drop down box for Mileage Options; shows Down standard payment $3,000.
And variable "Due at signing" $4,230 for 15K / yr.
Term = "36 Months" not variable

Therefore 15,000 miles per year "Lease Payment $535 /mo"
Cost per Mile (under 45,000) minimum Average $0.522 per mile - cheaper than a Vespa? 

Now Correcting with "Due at Signing" @ $4,199 and $504 /mo
Cost per Mile (under 30,000) minimum Average $0.7447 per mile - cheaper than an UberX?

Show Details (the fine print) = "The calculator does not include taxes or fees."
No information about excess Mileage charges.
Florida Delivery Timing
    Model 3 Standard Plus Rear-Wheel Drive
    Within 2 weeks (was 2-4 weeks before)

Next "Place Order" Name address etc. which now states:

"Due today to complete your order: $2,500"

What happened to the "$3,000 Order down payment" to be made for Leasing? 

Proceed or Buy for Cash $39,500 ; or Apply for a Tesla Personal Loan

Est. loan payment $594 /mo
$3,000 down, 72 months, 4.25% APR
$1,200 Destination & Doc
Estimate total - $46,968
Plus Taxes and Fees; Registration and Insurance

Too easy. Order now, you'll have it by the end of the month (maybe).

Honestly. Why is this allowed here? HOW IS THIS BEING ALLOWED ON THE FORUM LOL? I've never in my life seen more blatant shilling. This person is literally fucking walking people through the process of purchasing Teslas HAHAHAHAHA. Wow Neven. Is this really what such a large portion of your forum has come to? Fucking Tesla shilling every day?

What a god damn disgrace. Thank god there are more realistic forums out there these days whose users do not put up with this nonsensical for-profit garbage. This is supposed to be the arctic sea ice forum, yet every day for months you click on recent posts and the vast majority of the discussion is unrelated and now simply straight into the realm of overt corporate advertisement. Disgusting.
« Last Edit: April 13, 2019, 02:04:45 PM by 5to10 »

dnem

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 326
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 124
  • Likes Given: 54
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1938 on: April 13, 2019, 02:15:24 PM »
Geez, guy, take a friggin' breath.  I hear ya, but this is the Tesla thread.  Head over to the Melting Season and Area/Extent threads for excellent arctic content.

5to10

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 120
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 4
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1939 on: April 13, 2019, 02:18:13 PM »
Geez, guy, take a friggin' breath.  I hear ya, but this is the Tesla thread.  Head over to the Melting Season and Area/Extent threads for excellent arctic content.

Yeah, I realize that, just that some time ago clicking recent posts would simply show you all kinds of good information related. Now you have to scroll through pages and pages and pages to find just a few tidbits, it's insane.

I'll do more than take a breath because that's all I'm gonna say about it. I've been lurking for yrs, but I'm tired of the wash content here. It's just getting enough, it's obvious some entities are trying to push all the arctic info out of view on recent posts with bullshit political and EV propaganda instead. Just consistently massive walls of text by the same people, day in, day out, bla bla bla bla bla saying fucking nothing at the end of the day that has any relevance to our dire circumstances, and the clear and imminent danger ahead.

b_lumenkraft

  • Guest
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1940 on: April 13, 2019, 02:19:22 PM »
Stop washing the forum out with corporate/political pointlessness.

You pop in here telling us what and what not to do. You never post any sea ice relevant stuff, yet you are complaining about too much politics and Tesla posts.

What is this? Where are your manners? Who are you?

5to10

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 120
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 4
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1941 on: April 13, 2019, 02:22:47 PM »
Stop washing the forum out with corporate/political pointlessness.

You pop in here telling us what and what not to do. You never post any sea ice relevant stuff, yet you are complaining about too much politics and Tesla posts.

What is this? Where are your manners? Who are you?

I'm the guy who, long before the Extinction Rebellion was a thought in anyones mind, came here and vehemently suggested exactly the type of thing it is doing: First and foremost, scientists need to get reporters on board and demand they report on climate change rather than bullshit. I can only hope somebody was reading and it had some manner of impact on that movement because that is one of their main concerns.

Beyond that, I'm a guy who is well aware of when shilling and paid-to-post users are at work, and it is blatant here of late. Recent posts is a wash of corporate and political diatribe, thats all I have to say.


Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 15870
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 496
  • Likes Given: 232
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1942 on: April 13, 2019, 02:58:18 PM »
Rather balanced article.

“82 per cent of buyers last year didn’t even take a test drive”

Can Tesla keep selling cars with no ads and shuttered showrooms?
The electric car firm has cut showroom staff in favour of an online-first sales approach. But this is less about disrupting cars sales and more about cutting costs
https://www.wired.co.uk/article/tesla-store-closures-staff-cuts-elon-musk?utm_medium=applenews&utm_source=applenews
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

5to10

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 120
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 4
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1943 on: April 13, 2019, 02:59:39 PM »
Disgusting.

There's a 'method to my madness'. Try not to prejudge who is doing what and why. :)

You need to have a chat with Neven.

He started it, and he just loves this thread ...... everyone is different. ;)

I mean, I really don't care, and I really don't care what Neven likes or doesn't like either. There comes a time with projects like this where "the thing" is no longer the property of the creator. This forum meets criteria in that regard - it's bigger than Neven now and has been for some time. While he may have moderation authority due to his position, that is rather meaningless in the context described. The forum is bigger than Neven at this point and appealing to his authority as to what is quality discussion in the context of our present situation, which is dire (so dire that we should be discussing the types of things Extinction Rebellion is in order to have any hope, and not Tesla, or politics 24/7) is meaningless to a lot of people at this point.

Anyways, I digress. Carry on with your endless turfing. I counted, and only SIX out of your last 50 posts are climate related. The rest are essentially politics and tesla. You clearly have little interest in arctic sea ice. I am certain the ratios would be the same or worse with a handful of other posters here, and they are the ones filling the board up 24/7 with diatribe while the world burns more and more rapidly. It only takes that handful to wash out recent posts, it's bloody annoying.

The urgency seems to have all but disappeared on this forum and given way to diatribe.
« Last Edit: April 13, 2019, 03:08:29 PM by 5to10 »

Neven

  • Administrator
  • First-year ice
  • *****
  • Posts: 7200
    • View Profile
    • Arctic Sea Ice Blog
  • Liked: 730
  • Likes Given: 472
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1944 on: April 13, 2019, 04:05:35 PM »
This thread becomes better by the day, with GSY reverse-trolling now and 5to10 adding some unexpected drama.  ;D

But let's get back on topic, or just stop talking about it altogether, which perhaps would be best, I agree.
Il faut comparer, comparer, comparer, et cultiver notre jardin

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 15870
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 496
  • Likes Given: 232
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1945 on: April 13, 2019, 08:16:55 PM »
The Addressable Market for Utility Energy Storage Could Scale to $800 Billion
Quote
Elon Musk has stated that Tesla’s energy storage business will be as large as its car business in the long-term. ARK’s research shows that foregoing planned gas peaker plants and replacing them with utility scale energy storage could generate roughly $10 billion in revenues per year, more than six times Tesla’s $1.5 billion utility energy storage revenue in 2018. As battery costs continue to fall during the next five to ten years, the global addressable market for utility energy storage should expand to $800 billion.

Last July, California utility PG&E proposed four energy storage projects to replace natural gas plants in the South Bay.2 Two of these projects are the largest utility energy storage projects ever proposed – 1,200MWh and 730MWh – dwarfing the current record holder, Tesla’s 129MWh battery in Australia. As battery costs continue to fall, utility energy storage will begin to compete with existing natural gas peaker plants, reaching a price point that will motivate utilities to shut down underutilized plants.
...
In the future, underutilized electricity generation probably will be replaced by batteries. As shown below, while the average utilization for natural gas plants in the U.S. is roughly 55%, many plants are utilized less than 25% of the time. ARK’s work suggests that replacing all of those plants would be an $83 billion energy storage opportunity in the U.S. and an $800 billion opportunity globally. As shown in the second chart below, 5,000 gigawatt hours of storage capacity would take the place of all of the underutilized facilities – whether natural gas, coal, or liquids powered – around the world. Moreover, if battery costs continue to fall below $150 per kWh the addressable market could scale well beyond $800 billion.
...
While many are familiar with Tesla’s success in energy storage in South Australia, few analysts assign any value to this portion of its business. One explanation is that most analysts covering Tesla are either traditional auto or technology analysts with little experience in utilities. Another is that stationary energy storage is complicated to analyze, as electricity prices vary by geography and the source of energy; regulation and business models vary by company; and residential use cases differ significantly from utility scale use cases. In addition, lithium-ion batteries may not be the best energy storage technology in the long run and, with low barriers to entry, could be commoditized. That said, ARK’s research suggests that these are early days and that the total addressable market for utility energy storage could approach $1 trillion during the next 10 to 20 years.
https://ark-invest.com/research/utility-energy-storage
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 15870
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 496
  • Likes Given: 232
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1946 on: April 13, 2019, 11:40:37 PM »
A rare positive article from Business Insider.
Granted, “Better than Theranos” is a very low hurdle to surmount.  But he did find 10 reasons! :)

Tesla isn't the next Theranos — here are 10 reasons why
Quote
   •   Tesla and Theranos are sometimes discussed in the same terms, as Tesla CEO Elon Musk has jousted with the SEC and former Theranos CEO Elizabeth Holmes faces criminal charges for accusations of fraud.
   •   The Tesla-Theranos comparison, like the Tesla-Enron comparison, makes for fiery debates, but the comparison falls apart on closer scrutiny.
   •   At base, Tesla has a product that's relatively easy to understand — cars — while Theranos product was shrouded in secrecy. ...
https://www.businessinsider.com/why-tesla-is-not-like-theranos-2019-4
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

GoSouthYoungins

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1259
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 83
  • Likes Given: 109
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1947 on: April 14, 2019, 04:48:37 AM »
This is a fucking joke, we know that we are far too deep in the shit with far to much inertia for switching over to EV's to matter at this point.

You don't get it. EVs run on the sun and wind. This is just the tip of the iceberg. Soon there will be machines which pull CO2 out of the air and convert it to stable and USABLE energy. Multiply that with the decision making capability of a neural network and climate change can be SOLVED.

We, mere mortals may not understand it now. Heck, we may never understand it. But the computers are so much smarter and safer than we are! WE DON"T NEED TO UNDERSTAND, JUST BELIEVE!!!

As for the "inertia" in the system?!? I have no idea what you are talking about. So what if there is a several decades lag in the effects of GHGs being felt. Even less important is the lag in respond time to decision made today to real world change. Computers operate on an entirely different time scale.

Genius billionaires will soon be at the helm of tech which can solve problems that basic uncyborgized-humans don't even know are problems. Climate change will be a cake walk. There is likely a benefit to warming that AI will see and utilize for us. People will very soon be able to sit back and relax (likely on Mars), and enjoy life without the tyranny of driving or traffic or thinking, and we can watch our problems be solved without even a thought or care.

This will be an order of magnitude more mindblowing than anything previously experienced by humanity. Super-high-tech! Probably won't even blow over in a 50mph wind.


Oh and Elon says that April 22nd is the day the tyranny of driving ends. Exciting times.

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1117096350301085697
big time oops

Archimid

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2400
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 303
  • Likes Given: 184
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1948 on: April 14, 2019, 04:11:35 PM »
 Sarcasm is powerful and tough to defeat? Let see what I can do.

Quote
You don't get it. EVs run on the sun and wind.

That is the aspiration. Is not a reality yet, but good people everywhere ( not just Tesla) are working very hard to make it so.

Quote
This is just the tip of the iceberg.

It is.

 
Quote
Soon there will be machines which pull CO2 out of the air and convert it to stable and USABLE energy.

That is not certain. These machines will have to be heavily subsidized because capturing CO2 consumes copious amounts of energy. If engineers and leaders work very hard AND individuals, groups and governments support the growth of these machines then yes. We could capture CO2.

Quote
Multiply that with the decision making capability of a neural network

Yes, a theoretical super intelligent AI could solve the problem faster, but we may be very far from that, if at all possible. We should be working on that but we shouldn't rest our hopes in the development of such machine.

Quote
WE DON"T NEED TO UNDERSTAND, JUST BELIEVE!!!

Faith without works is dead.


Quote
Genius billionaires will soon be at the helm of tech which can solve problems that basic uncyborgized-humans don't even know are problems.

Elon has been warning us about this for years. Super intelligent AI in the wrong hands will be very dangerous. Sadly just like with climate change, people are too convinced of their own superiority to do anything about it.


Quote
Climate change will be a cake walk.

Climate change will kill us all. However, people with solar panels, batteries and electric cars have better chances of survival. As long as we don't block out the sun as we fight over the last scraps.

Quote
There is likely a benefit to warming that AI will see and utilize for us

If that is so, then great. I really DGAF about what is the temperature of the planet. I just want a happy and safe life. But for now, since there is no super intelligent AI to solve it it is better to avoid the warming.

Quote
People will very soon be able to sit back and relax (likely on Mars), and enjoy life without the tyranny of driving or traffic or thinking, and we can watch our problems be solved without even a thought or care.

Ignoring the philosophical paradoxes of your statement, that is the gist of it.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

magnamentis

  • Guest
Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1949 on: April 14, 2019, 04:33:24 PM »
Sarcasm is powerful and tough to defeat? Let see what I can do.

Climate change will kill us all. However, people with solar panels, batteries and electric cars have better chances of survival. As long as we don't block out the sun as we fight over the last scraps.

in short, good points, nice read and in the core true all the rest you just wrote except:

the quoted part is either not true at all or at least not probable or most certainly not as "CERTAIN" as you word it.

it really depends on:

- whether we talk sheer survival, then i'm sure mankind will survive

- level of civilization, this i dunno but will probably be some lower than nowadays

- number of inhabitants on spaceship earth, will probably be significantly lower at one point
. in the future or perhaps for a longer period of time.

what we shall see is of course huge disruptions of all kinds, once we have to shift agrable land up north, shift a huge number of huge major cities up-hill so to say. etc.

those disruptions will kill many, not the climate itself.