Tesla glory/failure

[Neven]

I let some of GSY's comments through because they are so funny, but please, don't use them as a basis for discussions, if only because that's not the purpose of this thread.

[GoSouthYoungins]

Elon went a twitter bender today...accusing the WSJ of shilling for big oil, doubling down of 500k annually, double down on giving the finger to the SEC, claim that super AI is about to super rule, etc.

My interpretation is the suicide by cop theory. He is trying to have the SEC or DOJ or BoD push him out. He likely doesn't want to be at the helm when Tesla becomes the first trillion dollar auto company. He is self-less and is trying to save the world. There is no room for running a successful business.

Musk 2020

[Sigmetnow]

“I’ve always thought that the fundamental good of Tesla should be measured by the number of years by which it accelerates the transition to sustainable transport & energy”
- Elon Musk

Long-read on Demand, By Alex Voigt:

The Mystery Of Tesla Model 3 Demand

Demand is a mystery that can only be measured once supply is provided, and at that point, it’s not demand anymore. You only know what demand you really had after its gone. Supply is a fact you can easily measure, while demand is never really known or completely understood. Even worse, the supply you measure is usually only a part of the demand you once had, and the closer you get to the moment of supply, the more you know how real the demand is.

A simple definition of demand is: “what people want.”
“If I had asked people what they wanted, they would have asked for faster horses,” Henry Ford is reported to have said (or not).

This polarizing sentence is an expression of consumer imagination limitation with a touch of arrogance. If you ask consumers, they tend to request better existing features instead of a new kind of vehicle or product that did not exist before. The very same that has been true for the transition from horses to cars is today true for the transition from gas combustion engines to electric cars.

You can rightfully state what Henry Ford really said is that consumers are dumb and he as a visionary knows better what they want than they do themselves. Admittedly, he was more polite, and admittedly, his success probably proved he was right. Once people had experienced the superiority of the Model T versus their horse, they suddenly knew that they wanted one, and they knew it with certainty. ...

https://cleantechnica.com/2019/04/14/the-mystery-of-tesla-model-3-demand/

Elon Musk (@elonmusk) 4/14/19, 11:55 PM
Buying a car in 2019 that can’t upgrade to full self-driving is like buying a horse instead of a car in 1919
cleantechnica.com/2019/04/14/the-mystery-of-tesla-model-3-demand/

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1117637496517603329

< Well.. horses do have pretty good autopilot

Elon Musk (@elonmusk) 4/14/19, 11:59 PM
Haha true. I actually love horses.

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1117638448171692033

Wild horses roam around the land outside Gigafactory 1 in Nevada....

[Neven]

What I don't understand, is how the 35K Model 3 isn't profitable. I mean, didn't that Munro guy and some Germans take the car apart and estimate the cost of production, which was substantially lower than 35K?

Here I found something from earlier this year:

Speaking of costs, one of the more interesting parts comes when the group starts discussing profit margins. Munro estimates the base $35,000 Model 3 can hit an 18 percent gross margin from the Fremont factory. He had previously stated the big-battery variants could achieve over 30 percent margins. As impressive as that sounds, Munro becomes especially ebullient when discussing the potential for profit when the mid-size sedan begins to be produced in China.

He thinks there is a lot of room for reducing margins once production begins at Gigafactory 3 in Shanghai. He posits that if the automaker doesn’t repeat mistakes made State-side, there is an opportunity to remove 20 percent of the cost of its U.S. counterpart. And that’s apart from an additional $300 he believes could be removed from the car’s “body-in-white” if it’s re-engineered.

This, along with the removal of government penalties for foreign production and the huge popularity of the Tesla brand in China, makes it easy to understand why he exclaimed at one point, “When he takes it to China, he’s gonna make a gazillion bucks.”

Or this one, from October last year:

In their coverage of their first teardown of the Model 3 back in July, they confirmed a bottom-up cost to build the Model 3 is probably under $30,000, supporting Tesla’s estimate that it could achieve nearly a 30% margin on the car.

[sedziobs]

I wonder if those potential margins are assuming a 10k/week production rate.  Tesla has been putting out less than half of that, with no sign of an increase.

[b_lumenkraft]

The margins must be still higher on all other models.

Musk stated cell delivery is insufficient. Of course, they want to sell higher margin cars first. This is only logical from a business standpoint.

[Sigmetnow]

—- MUSK RE THE PANASONIC ANNOUNCEMENT AND GIGAFACTORY CELL CONSTRAINTS
Tom Randall (@tsrandall) 4/11/19, 10:46 AM
Tesla shares fell after Nikkei reported that Panasonic is freezing spending on more Gigafactory expansion. Panasonic said it reached 35 GWh/yr capacity in March. That's already enough to build over 500k Model 3/yr+Powerwalls—more than Tesla can handle bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

Elon Musk (@elonmusk) 4/13/19, 3:17 PM
@tsrandall Incorrect. Pana cell lines at Giga are only at ~24GWh/yr & have been a constraint on Model 3 output since July. No choice but to use other suppliers for Powerwall/Powerpack cells. Tesla won’t spend money on more capacity until existing lines get closer to 35GWh theoretical.
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1117144865299501056

Tom Randall (@tsrandall) 4/13/19, 4:56 PM
@elonmusk To be clear, you're saying that Panasonic did not achieve 35 GWh/yr capacity by the end of March as reported and that total Model 3 production in Q1 was limited by cell availability?

Elon Musk (@elonmusk) 4/14/19, 4:42 AM
@tsrandall There is 35 GWh/yr “theoretical capacity”, but actual max output is ~2/3. It was physically impossible to make more Model 3’s in Q1 due to cell constraints.
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1117347290585243648

Elon Musk (@elonmusk) 4/14/19, 4:58 AM
@tsrandall Wow, a lot of people don’t know much about how manufacturing works! If you have peak capacity of X, actual average weekly output will necessarily be less than X. First 6-12 months, it will be much less than X. Impossible to predict exact production ramp S-curve.
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1117351334452142080

[Sigmetnow]

When the media talks about Model S and Model X deliveries, which were smaller in Q1 versus Q4, it is again looking at a tree while overlooking that Tesla had its third best quarter in history for all models combined and all of these three best quarters happened to be in the last 9 months (the last three quarters). The forest has grown significantly in that short period. To look at just a month or even a quarter is too short a time to evaluate the company, but if you want to pick that period, you have to at least take that month a year ago or that quarter a year ago to compare and assess — as the auto industry is a seasonal business that goes up and down like the weather does through the four seasons. What these analysts are doing is akin to comparing the average temperature in summer with the one in winter and calling the winter a big miss.

https://cleantechnica.com/2019/04/14/the-mystery-of-tesla-model-3-demand/


Musk Says Tesla Will Make Astonishing 500,000 Cars In Next 12 Months

Let’s take a look at the production rate – Tesla’s 12-months rolling output was at the end of March 2019 at around 297,000, including over 206,000 Tesla Model 3. Sales during the period amounted to about 280,000.
To achieve 500,000 in 12 months, Tesla needs to produce and sell at least 125,000 cars per quarter. The automaker’s production record was 86,555 in Q4 2018. In Q1 2019 production was 77,100, including a record 29,950 Model 3.
The increase from almost 300,000 to 500,000+ requires growth of about 67% year-over-year. Assuming that the Model S/Model X will stay at around 100,000 per year, Model 3 production and sales need to double to 400,000 per year.

If Tesla does manage to produce and sell 500,000 per year, and additionally significantly increase the revenues because of the autonomous driving capability, profitability should reach high levels. The FSD option is sold for $5,000 per car and is expected to be priced higher in the near future.
Just 100,000 cars (20% of planned) with the $5,000 option for robot taxi alone would provide $500 million of revenue.

https://insideevs.com/musk-says-tesla-will-make-500000-cars-in-next-12-months/amp/

[Sigmetnow]

Tesla (TSLA) to hold Q1 2019 financial results and earnings call on April 24

What is rather interesting is that Tesla is conducting its Q1 earnings call earlier than expected. Tesla usually releases its first-quarter earnings call in early May, as could be seen in the date of Q1 2018’s Q&A session. The company previously held earlier-than-expected earnings calls in October 2016, October 2018, and January 2019, and those quarters all proved to be profitable.

It should be noted that while the early date of Q1’s earnings call is a rather bullish sign, Elon Musk himself has been very conservative about the first quarter. When Tesla launched the $35,000 Standard Model 3 in March, Elon Musk noted that he does not expect the company to be profitable in the first quarter. “Given that there is a lot happening in Q1, and we are taking a lot of one time charges, there are a lot of challenges getting cars to China and Europe, we do not expect to be profitable. We do think that profitability in Q2 is likely,” the Tesla CEO said.

https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-tsla-q1-2019-earnings-call-date/

ValueAnalyst (@ValueAnalyst1) 4/14/19, 3:36 PM
It's been 45 days since $TSLA paid off $920 million for convertible bonds in cash, and it's yet to file for bankruptcy as $TSLAQ long predicted.

Go figure

https://twitter.com/valueanalyst1/status/1117511861786877952

———

Tesla’s inclusion of Autopilot on every car unravels a long-term Full Self-Driving strategy
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-autopilot-on-every-car-full-self-driving-strategy/

—-
Why Tesla Defines American Luxury, Not Cadillac or Lincoln
The soul of new American luxury is in California, not Detroit   
https://www.motortrend.com/news/why-tesla-defines-american-luxury-not-cadillac-lincoln/

[oren]

So, summarising, what you got instead of the promised $35K base Model 3 is actually the $39,500 base Model 3, which Tesla has simply renamed as - Standard Range Plus Model 3

The base model disappeared, but the SR+ is not the base model - its range is 240 miles instead of 220, and it includes Autopilot which the base model did not.

What I don't understand, is how the 35K Model 3 isn't profitable. I mean, didn't that Munro guy and some Germans take the car apart and estimate the cost of production, which was substantially lower than 35K?

I think at $35k it doesn't have negative margin, but it cannot support Tesla's high expense rate: sales stores, service costs, supercharger costs, referral program. Some of these they attempted to cut or improve, but it didn't help enough and now they are caught between a rock and a hard place. I believe the gamble they made is that people will stretch themselves to $39.5k and that volumes will be sufficient to support a profit. We will see how it plays out.

[crandles]

Musk tweeted

Very much so. There are 2.5B cars & trucks on Earth. Even replacing 1% of that fleet would require making 25M vehicles per year. Tesla will make over 500k cars in next 12 months, but that’s a mere 2% of 25M or 0.02% of global vehicle fleet. Car industry slow -> demand >> supply.

A problem for SEC negotiations?
Or is it just deriving an approximate 0.02% figure/talking in general terms?
Or is it just a different period perhaps 1 May 2019 to 30 April 2020 rather than calendar year of 2019 and as this is likely to include more time with China factory working, it is logical to expect more production....
Or .... ?

Even with deriving approx 0.02% figure and expecting more in a later period, the 500k still seems optimistic and seems like it might be seen as positive news by investors.

What are the chances that Musk got this tweet reviewed? Low , I imagine.

[oren]

Very good. Hopefully it comes to pass, sooner rather than later.

[Sigmetnow]

Musk tweeted

Very much so. There are 2.5B cars & trucks on Earth. Even replacing 1% of that fleet would require making 25M vehicles per year. Tesla will make over 500k cars in next 12 months, but that’s a mere 2% of 25M or 0.02% of global vehicle fleet. Car industry slow -> demand >> supply.

A problem for SEC negotiations?
Or is it just deriving an approximate 0.02% figure/talking in general terms?
Or is it just a different period perhaps 1 May 2019 to 30 April 2020 rather than calendar year of 2019 and as this is likely to include more time with China factory working, it is logical to expect more production....
Or .... ?

Even with deriving approx 0.02% figure and expecting more in a later period, the 500k still seems optimistic and seems like it might be seen as positive news by investors.

What are the chances that Musk got this tweet reviewed? Low , I imagine.

Musk meant what he wrote.  He’s also said it in interviews lately, IIRC, so this is not new information.

Consider:

StatsTesla (@StatsTesla) 4/15/19, 3:42 AM
Q1-19: 77K production
Q2-19: 93K (est)
Q3-19: 109K (est)
Q4-19: 125K (est)
Q1-20: 173K (est)

With these numbers, the total for 2019 will be 404K and 500K for the next 12 months. GF3 needs to produce about 50K cars in Q1-20, or 3850 per week.

https://twitter.com/statstesla/status/1117694705150697473

[RikW]

well, predicting a year in the future when ramping up production, at more than 1 location, gives enough time to have an excuse like "we had some setbacks"

And I think if all the pieces fit together, demand isn't an issue and they don't run out of cash, they can manage it. But they shouldn't have to much setbacks

[Sigmetnow]

Demand stories

Ret34 (@ThoughtsbyGabe) 4/15/19, 2:20 PM
Just ordered my @Tesla Performance Model 3. So excited and happy that Tesla and @elonmusk opened up the leasing market on this model. As you can see this was a reservation conversion from a couple of years back. I expect other serial leasers will do the same!

https://twitter.com/thoughtsbygabe/status/1117855213488988162
(Screen cap at the link: trade-in is a 2018 Toyota Camry.)
———

007 (@TrendTrader007) 4/14/19, 4:49 PM
And the demand is huge. I kid you not within the last week I’ve had at least 5 total strangers stop me and ask about my Tesla and I’ve spent several minutes answering all their questions. Shorts and skeptics have no idea-Tesla is a worldwide under the radar phenomenon ….

https://twitter.com/trendtrader007/status/1117530314908360704

About Toyota’s non-plug-in hybrid “self-charging” ads:

Robert Llewellyn (@bobbyllew) 4/15/19, 3:41 AM
Yesterday a woman asked me if my car was electric. I said 'yes.' She then asked 'is it one of those new self charging ones?'
She was a sensible, well educated person who's not interested in cars, after my brief explanation she said, 'so the advert is a lie.'
I said 'Yes.'

https://twitter.com/bobbyllew/status/1117694460140425216

Tesla Driver  (@m_xalher) 4/16/19, 12:57 PM
MAJOR @Tesla demand catalyst in Europe: Gas savings
Petrol is very costly here. Norway: NOK 17/liter (USD 7.8/gallon). Electricity cost moderate
Model 3 gas savings abt USD 18,000 in first 5 years
SR+ pays for itself in 10-12 yrs by GAS SAVINGS ALONE
https://twitter.com/m_xalher/status/1118196640261787650
 Screen cap of Tesla gas savings screen in Norwegian at the link.

Tesla Driver  (@m_xalher) 4/17/19, 3:44 AM
Price of petrol now above NOK 17/liter”. News from Norway’s e24.no today. 
https://twitter.com/m_xalher/status/1118419976413642752
Screen cap of story headline at the link.

——- ‘Tis the season for gas price hikes in the US, as refiners switch to more expensive summer blends.  Also, more refineries are off-line than usual this year.

Serious Callers Only (@EthicsGradient) 4/15/19, 11:52 AM
Gas prices in San Diego now.

https://twitter.com/ethicsgradient/status/1117817959706021889
Photo at the link: $4.35 to $4.55/gallon

Dr. Joel Murray (@JRMurray) 4/16/19, 2:22 AM
@EthicsGradient Highest gas prices in North America here in Greater Vancouver, Canada: $1.699 per litre = $6.43 per US gallon. Glad I drive a #Model3

https://twitter.com/jrmurray/status/1118037028887613440

California Gas Prices Climb 50 Cents in 1 Month Ahead of Gas Tax Increase Slated for Summer

DeHaan forecasts the average price in California will hit $4 for a gallon of regular gasoline by the end of this week — something no state has experienced in nearly the past five years.

https://ktla.com/2019/04/08/california-gas-prices-climb-50-cents-in-1-month-ahead-of-gas-tax-increase-slated-for-summer/

—- Below:  the changing of the guard for the perceived “green car” of choice in the US.

[Archimid]

Definitely a glory

[GoSouthYoungins]

Definitely a glory

Does it matter to you that most of that electricity generated gets rejected and is a total waste?

Does it matter to you that only a sliver of that electricity is in the form that can be used to manufacture things (like cars)?

Does it matter to you that countries that have added significant solar capacity have not significantly decreased their fossil fuel consumption?

It is a failure. Plain and simple.

And Tesla will soon be a chapter 7 super duper failure.

[Archimid]

Does it matter to you that most of that electricity generated gets rejected and is a total waste?

Does it matter to you that only a sliver of that electricity is in the form that can be used to manufacture things (like cars)?

Does it matter to you that countries that have added significant solar capacity have not significantly decreased their fossil fuel consumption?

Yes, yes, and yes, but none of it takes away from Tesla's glory.

[Sigmetnow]

Addressing Tesla’s rise from a niche electric car maker to a company that is now attempting to breach the mass market, Keogh stated that “we have not seen in the history of the auto business, a company going from zero to fourth place in luxury in a matter of a few years.”
- Scott Keogh, the chief executive officer of Volkswagen AG’s US unit

“On electrification, we see an opportunity in North America, but it’s much further down the road. The average vehicle today costs $34,000 and for many EVs, the battery costs $34,000.”
- Toyota Motor Corp. executive vice president of sales Bob Carter.

Tesla Model 3 becomes focal point of EV debate between VW and Toyota
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-model-3-debate-vw-toyota/

——-
Audi lowers 2019 EV production forecast by 10,000 cars. Europe car sales sink for 7th straight month.
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,438.msg195960.html#msg195960

——
Tesla Impact Report: 4 million tons of CO2 saved, 13.25 TWh solar electricity generated
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-impact-report-2018-results/

Read Tesla’s full Impact Report here:  https://www.tesla.com/ns_videos/tesla-impact-report-2019.pdf

—-
Wow. Tesla bears are so deranged, they recommend drivers commit aggressive actions near the FSD cars, risking a catastrophe.  Proving another way in which human drivers are more dangerous than autonomy.  (Besides inattention, distraction, falling asleep at the wheel, etc.)

Tesla CEO Elon Musk’s views on Full Self-Driving safety get validated by TSLA bears
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-elon-musk-full-self-driving-tsla-bears-autonomy-investor-day/

[oren]

 The average vehicle today costs $34,000 and for many EVs, the battery costs $34,000.”

This claim is so ridiculous it hurts my brain. EV batteries even at the pack level cost about $150-200/kWh, and even less for Tesla or anybody who bothers to mass-produce them.

[sedziobs]

The average vehicle today costs $34,000 and for many EVs, the battery costs $34,000.”

This claim is so ridiculous it hurts my brain. EV batteries even at the pack level cost about $150-200/kWh, and even less for Tesla or anybody who bothers to mass-produce them.

Obviously there must be "many EVs" with 170 kWh battery packs.

[Sigmetnow]

The average vehicle today costs $34,000 and for many EVs, the battery costs $34,000.”

This claim is so ridiculous it hurts my brain. EV batteries even at the pack level cost about $150-200/kWh, and even less for Tesla or anybody who bothers to mass-produce them.

Well, Toyota is the same company who spends million$ for ads calling their non-plug-in hybrids “self-charging,” so truth about EVs is definitely not a priority for them. 
Or perhaps because of their all-in bet on hydrogen, they are so far behind that the billions they would need to spend acquiring the resources they need to build a battery factory for the limited number of EVs they could produce would amount to around $34,000 a car.  The world’s current EV battery capacity is tapped out — for example, Audi just announced they will be short 10,000 cars this year due lack of batteries.

[Sigmetnow]

Tesla's Impact Report gets nod of respect from corporate sustainability firm

Trillium Asset Management, a firm that tracks corporate sustainability, stated that Tesla’s Impact Report went beyond superficial metrics. Allan Pearce, a shareholder advocate at Trillium, took particular notice of the company’s inclusion of its full greenhouse gas footprint, a metric that is rarely covered in first-time reports. “With any first report there’s always going to be room for improvement, though this is kind of a step above most first sustainability reports we see,” Pearce said.
...
The results of Tesla’s first impact report revealed an encouraging picture of a young company that is working hard to achieve the very ambitious goal of accelerating the world’s transition to sustainable energy. The report covered several important points, including the amount of C02 saved by the company’s fleet of all-electric cars. With around 550,000 vehicles on the road since the days of the original Tesla Roadster, the company noted that its zero-emissions fleet has driven over 10 billion miles to date, helping prevent more than 4 million tons of C02 from polluting the environment ...

https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-environmental-impact-report-corporate-sustainability-review/

[magnamentis]

Does it matter to you that most of that electricity generated gets rejected and is a total waste?

Does it matter to you that only a sliver of that electricity is in the form that can be used to manufacture things (like cars)?

Does it matter to you that countries that have added significant solar capacity have not significantly decreased their fossil fuel consumption?

Yes, yes, and yes, but none of it takes away from Tesla's glory.

Does it matter to you that most of that electricity generated gets rejected and is a total waste?

Does it matter to you that only a sliver of that electricity is in the form that can be used to manufacture things (like cars)?

Does it matter to you that countries that have added significant solar capacity have not significantly decreased their fossil fuel consumption?

Yes, yes, and yes, but none of it takes away from Tesla's glory.

call that merits instead of glory and +1 while i understood of course what you were saying and agree. the merits of tesla for a change, away from fuel burning, carbon heavy mudslingers can't seriously be disputed/denied.

if this thread were for this i wouldn't have said one word, but it's about whether the company will prevail or cease to exist in one day in a not too far future and my opinion on that i've mentioned.

of course i'm aware that there are no certainties, only probabilities based on business/financial standards and mechanisms that have proven relevant in the past till this very day.

[sedziobs]

These days, the only plausible justification for vehicle electrification is reduced CO2 emissions, but that justification is more smoke and mirrors than substance.

Since investing in smoke and mirrors is rarely successful in the long term, this article highlights the grave intellectual flaws in sustainability myths fabricated by Tesla (TSLA) and explains why its long-range Model 3 has a heavier CO2 footprint than Toyota's (TM) humble but highly efficient Camry Hybrid.

The Model 3 and the Camry Hybrid are both classified as mid-size cars

The long-range Model 3 and the Camry Hybrid are both classified as "mid-size cars" in the US and "D Segment cars" in Europe. My first table summarizes the salient details.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4254995-teslas-long-range-model-3-heavier-co2-footprint-toyotas-camry-hybrid

Thank god for analysts and internet refs by experts hey? Where would we be without them? Totally lost obviously!

Is it so bad that a Model 3 has a carbon footprint comparable to the most efficient hybrids?

Even so, getting to that conclusion requires some interesting assumptions, such as this one:

The marginal fuel to charge an EV anywhere in the US will always be natural gas; and while increased renewables may improve grid average emissions, they cannot change the marginal fuel source for EV charging.

According to the US Energy Information Agency, natural gas turbines emit 599.8 grams of CO2 per kWh while more efficient combined cycle plants emit 512.4 grams of CO2 per kWh. Since combined cycle plants typically operate as baseload facilities and gas turbines typically fill the gaps between baseload and demand, I believe 600 grams of CO2 per kWh is the best figure to use for EV charging analysis.

He seems to think that baseload cannot be used for EV charging, and so he ignores all renewable energy. I find this ironic because the argument against renewables for so long was that it can't be used as baseload. Increasing EV adoption will surely increase baseload demands and supplies over the long run, which will be made up of a greater proportion of renewables as time goes on.  The author even says that most EV charging is done overnight (when marginal use is lowest), but then proceeds to argue that only marginal natural gas is used to power EVs.

Although just one anecdote, my personal situation is a counterexample to his claims. I have solar panels on my roof that cover electricity demand for my home and Model 3 over a year. In my state, we are not allowed to put more electricity onto the grid than we pull from the grid in a year, so I would not have been able to install as many panels without the Model 3.  In my case, the marginal increase in electricity demand has been filled by renewable energy.  I think my case may serve as a microcosm for the national grid's future.

[Archimid]

Is it so bad that a Model 3 has a carbon footprint comparable to the most efficient hybrids?

That is the conclusion he reaches only after picking cherries. A Model 3 (or any EV) powered by sunlight /wind has zero emissions. A model 3 powered by gas has about the emission of one of the most efficient ICE vehicles in the market, but only if one ignores the emissions of producing new oil with fracking and ignores the initial CO2 expenditure of the Camry as that liar did.

As the Grid greens with the most cost effective new energy (solar/wind) The average efficiency of EVs will increase while the average efficiency of Camry will decrease. So even in the worst of cases the Model 3's emission will decrease while the Camry's emissions will increase.

These shorts will destroy the world if it earns them a few pennies.

[Sigmetnow]

LVC (@lourencovc) 4/16/19, 9:04 PM
There is a huge gas crisis in Portugal due to a truck drivers strike. Getting home this is the scenario. A never ending line to the gas station. It can impact all of us if it’s not solved soon, but at least I’m good knowing my Model 3 has nothing to worry about
https://twitter.com/lourencovc/status/1118319185782890496
< The entire argument of “I can just go to a gas station and fill up in a few minutes”.
It’s like dudes, I don’t have to go to the gas station at all, my car is all filled up in the morning before I even get to it.

Photo below; video clip at the link.

[oren]

These days, the only plausible justification for vehicle electrification is reduced CO2 emissions, but that justification is more smoke and mirrors than substance.

Since investing in smoke and mirrors is rarely successful in the long term, this article highlights the grave intellectual flaws in sustainability myths fabricated by Tesla (TSLA) and explains why its long-range Model 3 has a heavier CO2 footprint than Toyota's (TM) humble but highly efficient Camry Hybrid.

The Model 3 and the Camry Hybrid are both classified as mid-size cars

The long-range Model 3 and the Camry Hybrid are both classified as "mid-size cars" in the US and "D Segment cars" in Europe. My first table summarizes the salient details.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4254995-teslas-long-range-model-3-heavier-co2-footprint-toyotas-camry-hybrid

Thank god for analysts and internet refs by experts hey? Where would we be without them? Totally lost obviously!

Is it so bad that a Model 3 has a carbon footprint comparable to the most efficient hybrids?

Even so, getting to that conclusion requires some interesting assumptions, such as this one:

The marginal fuel to charge an EV anywhere in the US will always be natural gas; and while increased renewables may improve grid average emissions, they cannot change the marginal fuel source for EV charging.

According to the US Energy Information Agency, natural gas turbines emit 599.8 grams of CO2 per kWh while more efficient combined cycle plants emit 512.4 grams of CO2 per kWh. Since combined cycle plants typically operate as baseload facilities and gas turbines typically fill the gaps between baseload and demand, I believe 600 grams of CO2 per kWh is the best figure to use for EV charging analysis.

He seems to think that baseload cannot be used for EV charging, and so he ignores all renewable energy. I find this ironic because the argument against renewables for so long was that it can't be used as baseload. Increasing EV adoption will surely increase baseload demands and supplies over the long run, which will be made up of a greater proportion of renewables as time goes on.  The author even says that most EV charging is done overnight (when marginal use is lowest), but then proceeds to argue that only marginal natural gas is used to power EVs.

Although just one anecdote, my personal situation is a counterexample to his claims. I have solar panels on my roof that cover electricity demand for my home and Model 3 over a year. In my state, we are not allowed to put more electricity onto the grid than we pull from the grid in a year, so I would not have been able to install as many panels without the Model 3.  In my case, the marginal increase in electricity demand has been filled by renewable energy.  I think my case may serve as a microcosm for the national grid's future.

There are more well-picked assumptions to reach the conclusion:
* He keeps mixing the terms "Model 3" and "Long range Model 3". But the standard Model 3 has a 50 kWh battery rather than 75 kWh, significantly changing the results. Its power consumption is also 4% lower (0.25 kWh/mile rather than 0.26).
* He conveniently forgets the 1kWh battery of the Camry, as well as its IC engine (both manufacturing and maintenance with all its oils and valves) and related parts such as exhaust, catalytic converter and more.
* He picks a study that assigns high CO2 costs to battery manufacturing.
* He assumes a very low 150,000 miles number for end-of-life of the battery.
* I am still trying to track down sources for other numbers that seem suspicious.

Obviously, for some driving patterns a Toyota Camry Hybrid may be a better use of CO2, but it's not the general case IMHO. I will report back if/when I can offer better calculations.

[Sigmetnow]

Article compares hardware, software/data, regulator acceptance, and market share outlook of the major competitors. 
From Seeking Alpha!

Tesla's Autopilot: Their Most Lucrative Asset - Tesla, Inc. 
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4254694-teslas-autopilot-lucrative-asset

[Sigmetnow]

The German auto industry very much wants Tesla to fail. Which is in some sense ironic, because Tesla would be the best possible partner for them to successfully make the inevitable transition to EVs.  No longer do they laugh about the small EV start-up from California being a threat!

Lisa G-Punkt (@LudaLisl) 4/19/19, 1:59 AM
The German political Party @CSU just quoted a statement, closing "... It can't be [in the sense if "It is unacceptable"] that the German auto industry will lose and Tesla will win."

This shows why there is so much FUD going on in the German media to keep @Tesla down.

https://twitter.com/ludalisl/status/1119118211927007233

CSU (@CSU) 4/18/19, 1:10 PM
.@ManfredWeber: Beim Klimaschutz sind wir uns einig, dass wir Ambition brauchen. Aber SPD und Grüne riskieren mit ihren überzogenen Forderungen Arbeitsplätze. Es kann nicht sein, dass unsere Autoindustrie verliert und Tesla gewinnt. #BRextra #DeinEuropa

[@ManfredWeber On climate protection, we agree that we need ambition. But the SPD and Greens risk jobs with their excessive demands. It can't be that our auto industry loses and Tesla wins. #BRextra #DeinEuropa]

https://twitter.com/csu/status/1118924794890788865

Lisa G-Punkt (@LudaLisl) 4/19/19, 2:43 AM
...
Germany was one of the countries Elon looked at for the new Gigafactory. A bias like this doesn't seem very welcoming.
Also, the German car industry shot itself in the foot with Dieselgate. They don't deserve saving if they overslept EVs AND committed fraud .

https://twitter.com/ludalisl/status/1119129328724267010

[GoSouthYoungins]

Tesla would be the best possible partner for them to successfully make the inevitable transition to EVs. 

Please explain what you think Tesla has that would be of value to German Auto Makers.

Don't they share "all their patents" with the world, free of charge? 

[Sigmetnow]

...
Wow. Tesla bears are so deranged, they recommend drivers commit aggressive actions near the FSD cars, risking a catastrophe.  Proving another way in which human drivers are more dangerous than autonomy.  (Besides inattention, distraction, falling asleep at the wheel, etc.)

Tesla CEO Elon Musk’s views on Full Self-Driving safety get validated by TSLA bears
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-elon-musk-full-self-driving-tsla-bears-autonomy-investor-day/

Not just idle threats.  Aggressive driving and personal injury have already occurred.  Tesla has filed legal action.

Nafnlaus (@enn_nafnlaus) 4/20/19, 4:28 PM
So, remember my tweet about Tesla short sellers plotting to try to make a FSD car crash to make Tesla look bad (twitter.com/enn_nafnlaus/s…)? They've already tried - enough to trigger an emergency crash evasion maneuver. Petition for a restraining order filed: https://t.co/ijZ0qSNlxS

https://twitter.com/enn_nafnlaus/status/1119699431568363521
Text images from the filing at the Twitter link and replies; or see https://t.co/ijZ0qSNlxS for the document.

[ASILurker]

...
Wow. Tesla bears are so deranged

If you say so. (sigh)

% of Float Shorted 27.68%
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/tsla

It used to be ~20% a few months back. Maybe they know something?

SIGMETNOW IS THE #1 DERANGED DELUDED INCOMPETENT MORON HERE!

MAY 20TH Tesla Shares go Under $200

.... but in an IDIOTSVILLE no, it's the Shorters who are deranged.

[Archimid]

Maybe they don't know something?

[Sigmetnow]

Tesla would be the best possible partner for them to successfully make the inevitable transition to EVs. 

Please explain what you think Tesla has that would be of value to German Auto Makers.

Don't they share "all their patents" with the world, free of charge? 

Ask Fiat.  They just agreed to pay Tesla hundreds of million of euros for the privilege of a “partnership” Fiat needs to stay in business.  Next year, more OEMs will be forced to do the same.

Money for Tesla’s EU gigafactory!  Thanks!

Fiat Chrysler to pay Tesla hundreds of millions of euros to pool fleet
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-fiat-chrysler-tesla-eu-idUSKCN1RJ03I

This market gets pretty tight for everyone in 2019, except for Toyota. That doesn't leave a lot of options for FCA, leaving Tesla in a fairly decent negotiating position. … Interestingly, Tesla only needs about 45K deliveries to pull FCA into compliance. This explains them leaving the pool open, potentially for Ford. Ford probably decided to pass purely for reputational reasons or didn't want to help Tesla.

The real fun starts in 2020 though, where these 0 g/km EVs are pure gold. EU is on track to levy 95*30*15million (95Euro/g * 30 g/km shortfall * 15 million sales) in fines - Or a mindboggling 40 Billion every year. An EV at 0 g/km is worth 9k Euro (95*95) in avoided fines. Tesla could easily sell these credits for a small 10% haircut until it gets to 15-20% market share. And it gets progressively worse for the legacy manufacturers as the limits keep going down. No wonder the likes of LG Chem are playing hardball because next year, the European manufacturers don't have an option to not try building EVs.

https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/posts/3556518/

[magnamentis]

Maybe they don't know something?

as good because logical i find your answer, not in this case, after all mr. musk is publishing anything positive that is to spread and even more than what's there and almost permanently slightly or heavily exaggerated, to be corrected later in the process.

nevertheless, who knows (it all) LOL

[oren]

Over 27% of shares shorted, wow. Lots of potential gain in case of bankruptcy or extreme weakness, but also lots of potential loss should fundamentals change enough to force a sharp permanent rise in the stock.
The crowded trade is often the losing trade. Just saying.

[b_lumenkraft]

Wait Lurk,

if true, we can assume the recent price drop of Tesla shares is due to this one guy flooding the market.

Bad news would be when investors, in general, would lose faith. That was what i was thinking when looking at the price. Knowing it's likely caused by only one whale, that's bullish news.

[oren]

Wait Lurk,

if true, we can assume the recent price drop of Tesla shares is due to this one guy flooding the market.

Bad news would be when investors, in general, would lose faith. That was what i was thinking when looking at the price. Knowing it's likely caused by only one whale, that's bullish news.

I was thinking the same thing. That's a lot of shares to unload, and now it's over with the stock price still above $250. Note trading volume is misleading as most trades are short-term in-and-out.
OTOH, should another large investor decide to sell now, there might not be enough hands willing to buy and hold at these prices.

[Neven]

This is definitely bad propaganda for Tesla, but what a coincidence, eh?

[Archimid]

Cherry pickers will cherry pick.

https://www.news5cleveland.com/news/national/ohio-man-s-audi-catches-fire-and-explodes-day-before-he-says-he-was-notified-about-crucial-recall

An Ohio man says his family narrowly avoided death when his car exploded — a problem he believes could have been avoided if he had been notified of a crucial recall when it had been issued weeks before the incident.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/audi-recall-1-2-million-vehicles-coolant-pump-fire-risk/

Audi is recalling about 1.2 million cars and SUVs worldwide because the electric coolant pumps can overheat and possibly cause a fire. The recall covers the 2013 to 2016 A4, the 2013 to 2017 A5, the 2012 to 2015 A6, and the Q5 SUV from 2013 to 2017. All have 2-Liter turbocharged engines.

And then of course there are gas station fires:

According to the National Fire Protection Association, every year more than 5000 gas station fires are reported in the US.

These fires cause plenty of damage.

Talking in numbers, on an average, gas station fires cause 48 civilian injuries, 2 civilian deaths, and $20 million in property damage every year.

But if you wanna deceive people you cherry pick Tesla fires and pretends gasoline is not flammable and gasoline cars do not catch fire.

[Archimid]

Cherry pickers will cherry pick:

. . gasoline powered cars are about 11 times more likely to catch fire than a Tesla. It says the best comparison is fires per 1 billion miles driven. It says the 300,000 Teslas on the road have been driven a total of 7.5 billion miles, and about 40 fires have been reported. That works out to five fires for every billion miles traveled, compared to a rate of 55 fires per billion miles traveled in gasoline cars.

https://insideevs.com/news/337884/exploring-and-understanding-the-fire-risk-for-electric-cars/

[Sigmetnow]

ValueAnalyst (@ValueAnalyst1) 4/2/19, 4:12 PM
...
@NHTSAgov investigates every fire that involves a @Tesla, but it took "thousands of complaints that the vehicles went up in flames even without being involved in a crash" to probe @Hyundai @Kia ??
$TSLA #NotATesla

https://twitter.com/valueanalyst1/status/1113172307831345153

Complaints About Hyundais and Kias Catching Fire Prompt U.S. Probe
https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2019-04-01/complaints-about-hyundais-kias-catching-fire-prompt-u-s-probe

——-
 

Earl of Frunkpuppy  (@28delayslater) 2/6/19, 8:07 AM
“NHTSA, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, has over 90 complaints of parked BMW fires filed on its database. The organization said they have no current investigation into the fires” 
https://abc7chicago.com/automotive/bmw-car-fires-more-fires-reported-in-parked-cars-while-engines-off/5121834/

https://twitter.com/28delayslater/status/1093134184745443329

"BMWs have these fire problems for a very long time," said Jason Levine, executive director at the watchdog group The Center for Auto Safety. "They've taken a very long time to respond to them. And it doesn't seem that they're getting to the bottom of the problem."
https://www.detroitnews.com/story/business/autos/foreign/2018/12/24/bmw-faces-criminal-probe-south-korea-engine-fires/38791673/


[Sigmetnow]

Tesla (@Tesla) 4/20/19, 8:58 PM
Tesla Autonomy Day is on Mon, April 22nd   

Watch the event livestream @11am PDT [ 18:00 GMT ]:
– Livestream.tesla.com     https://livestream.tesla.com
– ts.la/YouTube      

https://twitter.com/tesla/status/1119767408556687361

[Sigmetnow]

Complaints About Hyundais and Kias Catching Fire Prompt U.S. Probe
"BMWs have these fire problems for a very long time,"

Looks like more Whataboutism to me. Please be aware everyone, some Hyundais, Kias, BMWs and Teslas blow up and catch fire. SpaceX vehicles too I hear. I wonder how many Volvos blow themselves up spontaneously each year?

The point is, every Tesla fire is treated as Breaking News!, while hundreds of ICE cars spontaneously combusting generates merely yawns, even by the agencies tasked with regulating them.

[Sigmetnow]

Breaking — Tesla Model S & X Refresh Production Test Run Is About To Start
https://cleantechnica.com/2019/04/21/breaking-tesla-model-s-x-refresh-production-test-run-is-about-to-start/

———-
May 19 is the anniversary of the 11 year old “Tesla Death Watch”

Tesla’s 11th Death Anniversary — No Joke!
Zachary Shahan. April 21st, 2019

Okay, it’s a small joke, of course, since Tesla isn’t dead and certainly hasn’t been dead for 11 years! However, for those of you who thought this idea of an 11 year Tesla death anniversary was an April 1st joke, I assure you, it is not!
...
There are many things you could do. The point is to have fun and spread the good news that Tesla, actually, is not dead and isn’t going to die anytime soon. To the contrary, Tesla is seeing its growth explode, Tesla has the most satisfied buyers on the auto market, Tesla offers a car that is better than a BMW 330i but has a total cost of ownership comparable to a Toyota Camry or Honda Accord, Tesla has broken countless sales records, and Tesla is essentially in a league of its own at the top of the auto market. ...

https://cleantechnica.com/2019/04/21/teslas-11th-death-anniversary-no-joke/

[Sigmetnow]

Tesla Investor Autonomy Day: Stage presentation has ended. 
A few headlines:
• Musk reiterates that LiDAR and High Definition (HD) maps are short-term crutches that will not get companies to full autonomy; computer vision is necessary for the edge cases, like differentiating between a tire in the road and a plastic bag.  Vision data can create LiDAR-like 3-D maps, and the neural net can actually predict road paths around a curve, beyond its line of sight.
• Tesla tried the HD/GPS map method and rejected it; any temporary change in a road makes it unusable, and regulators will want a backup method if GPS goes down.  The Tesla computer has two independent neural nets running and checking against each other before acting.  Either one can drive the car if one goes down.
• Teslas with the latest chip and software will have Level 5, non-geo-fenced capability by the end of this year. 
• Regulatory clearance for Tesla Network robotaxis in some jurisdictions in 2020.  (Tesla has been working with regulators on Navigate on Autopilot, and Advanced Summon, so they have a good feel for what regulators want.)

[Archimid]

That was a fascinating talk by the experts. The details on the chip were really satisfying. What they really did was simplify the chip to maximize the typical machine learning operations. Then they crammed as many simple operations as they could to maximize performance of the specific task Tesla needs.

From that I gather two things. One, this new chip is useless for all applications except self-driving neural networks. Two, for the application of self driving cars using the Tesla's approach there is no faster chip in the world.

The software part of the talk actually manages to top the hardware part of the talk. Karpathy's  explanation of how they are applying neural networks to the task of driving is very informative. Really, it is just a matter of billions of miles to achieve FSD.

Their discussion on lidar was not very interesting to me because I'm convinced that vision alone has all the info necesary for driving. However, their very cool 3D reconstruction using images is irrefutable proof that vision has all the information lidar offers and more.

One thing was clear to me by some of the questions. People refuse to believe that narrow AI  like self driving can have "intuition". They can, they already show it. "Human intuition" is overrated.

The other interesting part was the simulated miles. Google and Uber swear by their simulated miles, but I don't buy it. I don't think they will simulate the true randomness of the world any time soon. If you want to train a computer on how to drive, you have to get the computer out there in the real world driving.

Great talk, if a bit long. 

I can't wait to see footage of the demo drives, if they allow them.

[Sigmetnow]

Teslarati did a great live blog of the Autonomy presentation.  My favorite bits:

- FSD only operates software that’s cryptographically signed by Tesla – it will NOT operate software that isn’t Tesla’s, Bannon says.
- Elon Musk speaks his mind about the use of LiDAR for full self-driving once more. “LiDAR is a fool’s errand, and anyone who relies on LiDAR is doomed. It’s like having expensive appendices. You’ll see,” he said.
- The next generation chip will be about 3X better than the current one…about 2 years away,
- On simulations, Tesla uses them extensively, including for training data. But there really is no substitute for real data. The modeling isn’t the same…the real world throws some crazy stuff at you. Snow, trees, construction sites, plastic bags flying in the wind, etc., all interact differently and give different data, Andrej continues teaching the investor audience how NN’s work.
- “Using simulators, it’s like grading your own homework,” Elon doubles down against using simulators vs. real world driving. “It would be a monumental achievement of human capability,” he says, referring to creating a simulation that actually modeled reality.
- “LiDAR is lame,” Elon replies to a comment about his ‘slam’ on the tech during the presentation. The man is clear about his feelings. “We’re gonna dump LiDAR, mark my words. That’s my prediction.” He then talks about SpaceX’s use of their own LiDAR because it makes sense. LiDAR in cars is “stupid”, he says…in case you were wondering how he **really** feels.
- Elon lightly mentions a mode beyond Mad Max once more. Looks like an “LA Traffic Mode” might really be released in the future.
- Nine million successful lane changes have been logged in Tesla cars, per Bowers. They are now seeing 100,000 automated lane changes per day. [And no accidents!] That’s a lot for the NN to learn from! No simulator necessary.
- THIS IS BIG: The current battery pack is good for about 300-500,000 miles. The new battery pack that will probably go into production for next year will operate for **1 million miles** with minimal maintenance, he announces, specifying that the improvements are driven by the Tesla Network development. As parts become less and less important (steering wheels, pedals, etc.), they will delete them from the cars.
- IMPORTANT –> Tesla will be liable if there is an accident while using the Tesla Network, per Elon.

Tesla showcases Autopilot, Full Self-Driving tech in Autonomy Day (Live Blog)
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-autonomy-day-livestream-updates/

[Sigmetnow]

That was a fascinating talk by the experts. The details on the chip were really satisfying. What they really did was simplify the chip to maximize the typical machine learning operations. Then they crammed as many simple operations as they could to maximize performance of the specific task Tesla needs.

From that I gather two things. One, this new chip is useless for all applications except self-driving neural networks. Two, for the application of self driving cars using the Tesla's approach there is no faster chip in the world.
...

Right. Nvidia has to make their chips serve many different customers and applications, whereas the Tesla chip was designed purely for Tesla Full Self Driving Neural Net:  very fast, very safe, very energy-efficient.

Elon said that for a competitor to work out the Tesla-specific bits (Intellectual Property) would require about three years — by that time, Tesla will be rolling out its next generation chip, which will be 3 times better....

There is no other car you can buy with the hardware that can attain FSD except Tesla.  Musk said he expects cash-flow neutral as the FSD Teslas ramp up, then cash-flow positive once the Tesla network comes on line and Tesla takes their 25 to 30% cut.


Tesla unveils ‘Robotaxi’ plan for self-driving ride-sharing network next year

Musk’s own presentation focused on Tesla’s timeline to bring a full self-driving to market and the ‘Tesla Network’, the company’s plan for a shared fleet of Robotaxi vehicles.

The CEO believes that Tesla will have developed the software for all the features required to achieve a full self-driving system by the end of the year.

He emphasized that this version system will still require driver attention, which doesn’t really make it self-driving, but he expects that it will stop requiring driver attention by Q2 2020.

From there, Tesla will be working with regulators to have the system approved as a self-driving system that doesn’t require driver supervision.

The timeline for that will depend on the regulators in different jurisdictions, but Musk said that he is confident it will happen in at least one market by the end of next year. ...

https://electrek.co/2019/04/22/tesla-robotaxi-network-self-driving-fleet-ride-sharing-cars/