Tesla Pivots To Oblivion
May 17, 2019
The author does a great job, imho, compiling so much historically accurate up-to-date and relevant credible information with source references into a single accessible document.
The article though long and detailed is quite biased, focusing on the bad parts and skipping over good parts, while interpreting everything with a negative tinge. It doesn't mean it's not useful, as it contains a lot of justified criticism, but it should be handled with care.
To put things into context, the author's past articles were similarly themed:
* Tesla Endgame - Sep. 9, 2018
* Tesla Approaches Terminal Decline - Nov. 10, 2017
* The Big Tesla Swindle - Apr. 18, 2017
* Debunking The Tesla Mythology - Jul. 22, 2016
I won't bother highlighting biases (I like Magnamentis' approach, it's not useful to respond with rebuttals to every post) but one paragraph caught my eye in particular:
Model 3 operating cost savings, one of Tesla’s most prominent sales arguments besides straight-line acceleration, do not materialise for many Europeans: The Model 3 SR+ with 415km range starts at €45,480, which is over €13,000 more compared to the Škoda Octavia Premium 2.0 TDI that features more options, better interior and a higher fit and finish quality. The Model 3 uses 20kWh per 100km driven in mild weather on city and country roads, which means that at €0,29 cost of domestic electricity per kWh in Germany – Tesla’s own charger cost per kWh being higher – the cost per 100km is €5.8, whereas the Škoda uses 5.3l diesel per 100km under the same conditions. At a cost of €1.24 per litre diesel, the cost per 100km is €6.6. At an average of 15,000km driven per year, the operating cost difference is a mere €120 per year and is further diminished in the cold and winter weather season via battery pre-heating and battery discharge, as well as via higher insurance and repair costs.
This contains a factual error, as the Model 3 uses ~15 kwh/100km. Moreover, the author picks the country with the highest kwh price in Europe, with a relatively cheap Diesel price as well, to get at a result of near parity in operating cost with a 45-mpg Skoda.
Real comparison in Germany - €4.5 for Tesla vs. €6.6 for Skoda per 100 km. €315/year in savings.
Comparison in France (kwh costs €0.15, diesel costs €1.47) - €2.25 vs. €7.8, €830/year in savings.
Is the difference important to car buyers? Not sure. But it's a far cry from €120/year.
Tesla seems to be managed erratically, with Model 3 variants disappearing and reappearing, prices going up and down, periodical extreme cost cutting, stores closing and then not closing, not raising capital and then raising capital. I strongly dislike it. But I also dislike biased criticism especially when it's constantly harped. There are lots of entrenched corporate interests that would love to see Tesla wiped out, both in the oil sector and in the cars industry, and of course the huge shorts community. A lot of the negative media is generated by these interests. I prefer to focus on actual results. Q3 and Q4 were good, Q1 disastrous, I see Q2 as a make or break. Not meeting the minimum 90k delivery guidance will be a big failure.
Global near-term outlook
For Tesla to meet 2019 lower-end guidance of 360,000 sales, the company must sell 99,000 cars in each of the remaining three quarters. With April and half of May over, based on cars in transit and shipping activity, I estimate Q2 sales (and sales drivers) as follows: 22,000 Model 3 Europe (standard range plus, more shipping volume); 30,000 Model 3 North America (standard range plus, leasing); 12,000 Model 3 China (more shipping volume) and 16,000 Model S and X global (higher range, discounts) for 80,000 total sales at shrinking ASPs and margins.
Q2 delivery predictions:
Andreas Hopf - 64,000 M3, 16,000 S/X, 80,000 Total
Anthon Wahlman (May 17th) - 61,750 M3, 12,250 S/X, 74,000 Total
