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oren

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2250 on: May 14, 2019, 07:35:12 AM »
The company has since modified its pricing structure and the lowest version currently available to order on its website starts at $48,000.

[ Plus $6,000 for FSD Hardware = $54,000 for a Basic version Model Y ]

Tesla also said that it could be configured with up to 7 seats due to an optional third-row.

[ No way will they fit a 3rd Row in that Prototype Model Y version ]
$54k for a basic version Model Y? If you're spamming this thread, at least be accurate.

Model Y at unveil was $39k for Standard Range, $47k for Long Range.
After unveil prices were raised by $1k. Strange move, one of those constant price changes for no reason.
Only Long Range and higher trims are currently open for pre-orders on the website, starting at $48k. Does that make it the basic Model Y? Of course not. That would be Standard Range, with a price of $40k, and availability in spring 2021.
As now Autopilot is bundled in with all Tesla cars, I expect the actual price of Model Y Standard Range, the basic version of the car, will be $42k, barring any further twists in the pricing scheme.

The FSD software option is not part of any basic model, yet you keep adding it. The car would drive perfectly fine without it.

Regarding the 7-seat option, the 3rd row was actually installed in the Model Y prototype shown in the unveil, which I expect is the same prototype spotted in San Jose.

oren

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2251 on: May 14, 2019, 04:48:34 PM »
Tesla Trapped Itself With A 90,000+ Deliveries Guidance For Q2 2019
While the rest of the noise around Tesla doesn't matter much, this is the really big question. Will they or won't they make it? The same guidance (90k-100k total deliveries for Q2) was reiterated with the recent capital raise.
Not meeting the guidance will signal failure, either of execution or of intrinsic demand or both, and in any case will signal that management lacks visibility into the business despite its professed confidence. Very negative sign. OTOH meeting the guidance could be a sign of success on both the execution and demand fronts.
I have usually been quite optimistic on deliveries, but this time I am less optimistic. Wouldn't be surprised if they fail to meet the guidance, after the debacle of Q1. Would be pleasantly surprised if they do manage to meet it.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2252 on: May 16, 2019, 02:19:09 PM »
Great news for Giga 2.

Tesla exceeds employment goals for NY as Giga 2 starts Supercharger V3 production
Quote
Tesla’s first annual report to New York’s Empire State Development Corp. has revealed that the electric car and energy company exceeded its 2019 jobs target for the state. Tesla’s filings reveal that the company has 632 full-time workers through the end of April, comprised of 329 employees at Gigafactory 2 in Buffalo and around 300 more across New York.
...
Apart from providing the specifics of its employment figures in New York, Tesla also announced that it has added a new manufacturing line to the solar factory. The new line is designed to assemble the electrical components of Tesla’s Supercharger V3 stations, which are capable of peak charge rates of up to 250 kW. Considering that Tesla is particularly aggressive with the expansion of its Supercharger Network, the V3 line in Gigafactory 2 would likely result in even more jobs for the state. ...
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-gigafactory-2-jobs-starts-supercharger-v3-production/
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Archimid

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2253 on: May 16, 2019, 04:10:09 PM »
Maxwell Secured

Tesla Completes Acquisition of Maxwell Technologies

https://ir.tesla.com/news-releases/news-release-details/tesla-completes-acquisition-maxwell-technologies

Quote
Following to the completion of the exchange offer, Tesla completed the acquisition of Maxwell by consummating the second step merger contemplated by the previously announced merger agreement between Tesla and Maxwell. As a result of this merger, all shares of Maxwell stock that were not tendered in Tesla’s exchange offer were cancelled in exchange for the right to receive the same consideration paid for Maxwell stock in the exchange offer.


Considering that Tesla has been on the look out for the next generation of battery technologies and the battery technologies that Maxwell claims, this is a very exiting announcement.

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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2254 on: May 16, 2019, 05:53:13 PM »
Maxwell Secured

Tesla Completes Acquisition of Maxwell Technologies
...
Considering that Tesla has been on the look out for the next generation of battery technologies and the battery technologies that Maxwell claims, this is a very exiting announcement.

Huge news.  It might relate to Musk’s statements that along with the one million mile lifespan for Tesla motors and drivetrain, Tesla batteries would soon also have an increased lifespan.  Possibly a reason behind the Semi truck delay?  And oh yes, another bear claim (“The Maxwell deal will never close”) failure.

Tesla Successful In Buying Maxwell Technologies
Quote
Maxwell Technology was a company specialized in high-quality supercapacitors. A supercapacitor is a kind of electricity storage device that can charge and discharge very fast and many thousands of times without any wear and tear. But the density of energy is very low, making supercapacitors unusable as permanent storage. It has been speculated, though, that use of supercapacitors could enable better storage and reuse of braking energy, making EV’s better track cars.

Perhaps, but that is not what made Maxwell a target for Tesla. Maxwell developed a way to improve battery production. The company’s own estimate was that, in time, Maxwell could grow to a many-billion-dollar company, multiplying their stock value at least tenfold and perhaps a hundredfold. If only they could bring the patents to production. ...
https://cleantechnica.com/2019/05/16/tesla-successful-in-buying-maxwell-technology/

Edit: More:
Tesla completes Maxwell acquisition, ushers another era of battery breakthroughs
Quote
Maxwell has previously stated that its dry electrode technology has demonstrated an energy density of 300 Wh/kg, and that it had “identified” a path to path to 500 Wh/kg. A Tesla Model 3 battery pack, on the other hand, has an energy density of 272 Wh/liter, with the 2170 cells producing 207 Wh/kg, according to Extreme Tech.

Maxwell Technologies is the fifth company that has been acquired by the electric car maker. Before Maxwell, Tesla had acquired Riviera Tool LLC, a company that specializes in stamping die systems; SolarCity, a provider of solar energy services; Grohmann Engineering, a company that produces Tesla’s robots for production; and Perbix, a company that creates highly automated production equipment.
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-tsla-completes-maxwell-acquisition/
« Last Edit: May 16, 2019, 06:18:26 PM by Sigmetnow »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2255 on: May 16, 2019, 09:50:30 PM »
Additional perspectives on the Maxwell acquisition and why it is such a big deal for Tesla.

Disruption Research (@DisruptResearch) 5/16/19, 10:44 AM
1/ $TSLA completed its acquisition of $MXWL today. This is Tesla's first battery tech acquisition. It's difficult to overstate how absurd of a development this is. Why?
https://twitter.com/disruptresearch/status/1129034882280296456
2/ @elonmusk has historically expressed deep skepticism of most battery startups / technologies. And @Tesla's the #1 EV company in the world. So when Tesla publicly declares it wants Maxwell, it means the tech is LEGIT.
3/ Why is it absurd? Because it only cost ~$200M, or *LESS THAN 0.50%* of GM, Ford, BMW, Daimler, or VW's market cap. With negligible dilution, any of these OEMs could have outbid Tesla once this deal was made public. Would have been a no-brainer. But none of them did.
4/ Heck, @elonmusk even used the words "secret sauce" when asked about the MXWL deal on the Q1 call. That probably made Tesla's Corp Dev team super nervous. Was none of the OEMs listening? They could have put together a bid that weekend.
5/ This development made me realize how incredibly political and slow the decision making process at these OEMs are. I can understand one OEM not trying to outbid this away, but ALL of the ~10 mega OEMs? Just wow...
6/ There was just one other entity that "gets it": China. Its state-owned fund tried to invest in $MXWL in 2017/18, and got blocked by CFIUS. As usual, China gets it. The EV revolution will be lead by $TSLA and China.
    —-
Quote
< I suspect Maxwell do not know how Tesla is planning to use its technology. Otherwise other  battery companies would have bid higher
Alter Viggo (@AlterViggo) 5/16/19, 3:02 PM
Quite the opposite. Tesla has been interacting with Maxwell for some time. One of the key advantages for Maxwell's tech is that they'd no longer need the expensive and space-hungry drying ovens to make cells. Could expand production w/out building more sections at GF1.
https://twitter.com/alterviggo/status/1129099810265554944

Quote
Madhu Reddy (@mjreddyMD) 5/16/19, 2:46 PM
@DisruptResearch Did you read this Seeking Alpha article?  https://t.co/ecj53xPorL
Author explains (in a simple way) potential competitive advantages for Tesla when they apply Maxwell's dry electrode IP: cheaper and quicker to build lighter, more energy dense batteries!
https://twitter.com/mjreddymd/status/1129095896228982784
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oren

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2256 on: May 17, 2019, 10:27:25 AM »
Do you post so prolifically and endless on all "just another company that you don't care about" out there? Or is this a spamming strategy designed to make the readers of this specific thread give up?

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2257 on: May 17, 2019, 10:31:06 AM »
Do you post so prolifically and endless on all "just another company that you don't care about" out there? Or is this a spamming strategy designed to make the readers of this specific thread give up?

What do you think the answer is Oren?

You are an idiot Oren!

But your biggest problem is that YOU DO NOT KNOW you are an IDIOT!
« Last Edit: May 21, 2019, 06:23:15 AM by Lurk »

oren

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2258 on: May 17, 2019, 10:57:11 AM »
Your actions show your true colors. I believe you are obsessed with Tesla, perhaps because it doesn't fit your view of the world and how humanity should handle the coming (already here) crisis, and that you are intentionally spamming here about all the possible negative aspects of Tesla, while professing lack of any interest in the subject. Maybe waiting for the moderator to give up in disgust due to the disproportional length of the thread compared to its importance, and shut it down.

Tesla has good sides and bad sides. There was a period of rather well-balanced discussion and most importantly short and to the point discussion here. Links were picked with care and their biases highlighted. Sig used to bring actual Tesla news along with some cheerleading, with a known pink-colored tinge, but certainly not in the amount currently going on this thread.
Either Tesla will hang itself by bad execution and Elon's craziness, or be drowned by market dynamics (competitors, demand, trade wars, carbon taxes or lack thereof and many other factors), or it might succeed. Its success will not mean the world is saved, not by a long shot, but it will probably mean EVs will be more advanced in general, compared to if Tesla fails. Is this important? To some more so, to some less so.

Does this merit daily updates on the share price? Research papers dug up from one and even two years ago? Clearly biased articles by people who most probably make money by being permanent Tesla negatives? Two per week, maybe. Ten per day, I think not.

Neven

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2259 on: May 17, 2019, 01:27:14 PM »
I agree with this:

Tesla has good sides and bad sides. There was a period of rather well-balanced discussion and most importantly short and to the point discussion here. Links were picked with care and their biases highlighted. Sig used to bring actual Tesla news along with some cheerleading, with a known pink-colored tinge, but certainly not in the amount currently going on this thread.
Either Tesla will hang itself by bad execution and Elon's craziness, or be drowned by market dynamics (competitors, demand, trade wars, carbon taxes or lack thereof and many other factors), or it might succeed. Its success will not mean the world is saved, not by a long shot, but it will probably mean EVs will be more advanced in general, compared to if Tesla fails. Is this important? To some more so, to some less so.

I don't agree with this:

Quote
Does this merit daily updates on the share price? Research papers dug up from one and even two years ago? Clearly biased articles by people who most probably make money by being permanent Tesla negatives? Two per week, maybe. Ten per day, I think not.

Instead of endless discussions, this thread is meant to be used as a repository of propaganda, both by Sigmetnow and by Lurk. Daily updates on the share price is (to me) like daily updates on JAXA SIE numbers. If there are ten things to post every day, then so be it.
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Archimid

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2260 on: May 17, 2019, 01:48:17 PM »
Oren, sadly, persistence is powerful, and Lurk has shown that. Persistence coupled with favorable moderation is even more difficult to defeat. But that's ok  because a microcosm of the Tesla reality has been created on this thread.

It used to be a refuge to gain hope for the future of humanity and it has now become another battleground infested by malicious propaganda. Such is the way of the internet.

Like climate change, we must figure out a way to sort the truth from the FUD and see otherwise smart people succumb to FUD.

There is still something to learn from Lurk if you can sort out the FUD and extract the nuggets of truth.  I usually give up on trolls when they don't offer valuable info anymore, but Lurk still does. Use him. Find where he is wrong and learn.

 His efforts no longer matter. The EV revolution is happening and it's just starting. Hopefully, as the situation changes and Lurk moves his goal posts accordingly he remains useful.


On a more personal note:

The worst thing about buying shares on a company you admire and love is the feeling of happiness for the opportunities for buying low. I'm hoping I can take advantage of it at the end of the month. So in a way, I feel a bit indebted to Lurk.
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oren

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2261 on: May 17, 2019, 02:13:48 PM »
I don't agree with this:

Quote
Does this merit daily updates on the share price? Research papers dug up from one and even two years ago? Clearly biased articles by people who most probably make money by being permanent Tesla negatives? Two per week, maybe. Ten per day, I think not.

Instead of endless discussions, this thread is meant to be used as a repository of propaganda, both by Sigmetnow and by Lurk. Daily updates on the share price is (to me) like daily updates on JAXA SIE numbers. If there are ten things to post every day, then so be it.
Your forum, your decision obviously. I prefer this thread to be about matters that actually affect Tesla long-term success or failure, rather than a propaganda battleground, but I'll have to accept the situation.

b_lumenkraft

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2262 on: May 17, 2019, 03:08:48 PM »
Lurk, are you familiar with the term 'agile software development'?

As you know, Musk is having a software development background. What if [1], what you perceive as chaos is in its essence the possibility to adapt very fast, a trait that might be needed in a changing environment, and, of course, a trait the multi-billion-international corporation is lagging?

[1] serious hypothetical question. Let's be crazy and just assume that for a minute. What if?

b_lumenkraft

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2263 on: May 17, 2019, 03:25:22 PM »
No, i'm asking you my friend.  ;)

No need to answer now. Keep this thought in mind for a while. I bet you'll recognize a pattern.

zizek

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2264 on: May 17, 2019, 07:47:40 PM »
Your forum, your decision obviously. I prefer this thread to be about matters that actually affect Tesla long-term success or failure, rather than a propaganda battleground, but I'll have to accept the situation.

You never said a word when almost the entirety of the Policy and Solutions was dedicated to Corporate Propaganda. Hyperloop, Boring Company, Solar City, Tesla. Every single peep that came out of Musk's mouth was repeated here by Sigmetnow et al. in a number of different threads. Tesla dominated the discussions here. And I remember clearly that any criticism was met with an obnoxious army of sycophants forcefully turning off the conversation.

Who cares that Lurk is spamming the Tesla thread. It was created for corporate spam, negative or positive. Don't get me wrong, Lurk's sometimes incessant posting is grating. But at least it's original and critical. Most of Sig's posts were tweets from Tesla fanboys. 

You would think that by now you would realize that maybe we don't need to foster discussion around status quo solutions to climate change, and instead direct the conversation into more productive ideas... Like, perhaps, not building a bunch of cars.

magnamentis

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2265 on: May 17, 2019, 08:03:56 PM »
"with his many profitable startups"

his ?

profitable ?

the few/only profitable ones were not "his" and not managed by "him" but he was a late joining shareholder, i.e. paypal.

even tesla was not his baby from the time of birth and is not profitable as far as i can see and without a miracle won't be for a long time to come, i'd say never ( quarters don't count numbers are tweaked like last year)

Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2266 on: May 17, 2019, 08:37:09 PM »
Here’s a video for folks who are unfamiliar with the Tesla Autopilot interface.  In particular, those who don't know what it means that “hands were not detected.”

Even when the driver’s hands are constantly on the steering wheel, the Tesla frequently does not detect them.  Visual “nags” at bottom of center display are seen regularly here, and quickly increase to audible warnings when hands are still not detected.  (Even more drastic interventions would follow, including deactivating AP even if hands are detected, or pulling off the road if there is no response.)



Cell phone use while driving is totally under human control, but people die every day because of it. 
Yet the media gives that next to no attention, even though preventing it would save thousands of lives every year, not just one or two.
Quote
space bound (@Ev_Investor) 5/16/19, 3:40 PM
How national media covers the > 3,000 distracted driving deaths a year in the US:
(hint: similar to how they cover every Tesla fire while ignoring the 10,000s of fires in gas cars
annually).
https://twitter.com/ev_investor/status/1129109477238566912
Pie chart below.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2267 on: May 17, 2019, 08:52:40 PM »
"with his many profitable startups"

his ?

profitable ?

the few/only profitable ones were not "his" and not managed by "him" but he was a late joining shareholder, i.e. paypal.

even tesla was not his baby from the time of birth and is not profitable as far as i can see and without a miracle won't be for a long time to come, i'd say never ( quarters don't count numbers are tweaked like last year)

Age 24: Zip2 (acquired by Compaq for $340 million)
Musk then founded X.com, an online bank. It merged with Confinity in 2000 and later that year became PayPal, which was bought by eBay for $1.5 billion in October 2002.
Age 30: SpaceX ($30 billion valuation)
Age 32: Tesla ($50 billion valuation)
Age 44: OpenAI (nonprofit)
Age 45: Neuralink ($27 million raised)
Age 45: Boring Co ($113 million raised)
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2268 on: May 17, 2019, 09:34:48 PM »
Breathe much?

Quote
Air Pollution Is Slowly Killing Us All, New Global Study Claims
https://cleantechnica.com/2019/05/17/air-pollution-is-slowly-killing-us-all-new-global-study-claims/

Quote
Elon Musk (@elonmusk) 5/17/19, 2:50 PM
This is why we put extra filters in all Tesla cars. S & X even have hospital operating room grade HEPA filters.
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1129459107952332800

Parents report that their Tesla’s “Biohazard Filter” System knocks down their child’s asthma attacks. The system has also helped people with respiratory sensitivities who were downwind from wildfires.  It’s a popular feature in perennially smoggy China.
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b_lumenkraft

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2269 on: May 18, 2019, 06:19:23 AM »
As an intelligent person, that you are Lurk, it doesn't really take time to see something from different viewpoints. Looking at it with a narrow band is not time-saving, it's just lazy. And if you do it deliberately, it's also ignorant.

And this is what i don't get. When it comes to other topics you are always willing to think the extra mile. Why not here?

b_lumenkraft

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2270 on: May 18, 2019, 06:55:36 AM »
Not expecting anything from you, but want to hint on you that you are looking at this topic with a narrow view. That's all.

I brought up the agile development because much of what you see as Musk being a crazy person is in real fast adoption in a highly competitive market, with a product that requires a lot of know-how, complex supply chains, logistics, retail outlets, etc.

When your competition is a bunch of cheating bastards propped up by nation states and a lot of lobbying power, how can you expect this not to be a bumpy ride that requires agile adoption?



b_lumenkraft

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2271 on: May 18, 2019, 10:04:39 AM »
5 reasons why Tesla bought Maxwell Tech


Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2272 on: May 18, 2019, 01:36:48 PM »
We don’t have the luxury of time to choose a preferred savior to lead us to zero emissions.  The undeniable fact is: Tesla is in the lead, and thus should be championed for their work fighting the efforts of Big Oil.

Sustainable Products and Manufacturing | Tesla
Quote
The Tesla Team April 15, 2019
Today, we’re publishing our first ever Impact Report, which measures the impact our products and operations have on the environment and our communities. We believe the faster the world moves towards a zero-emission future, the better, so we’re working hard to minimize our greenhouse gas footprint, while investing in our employees and the communities in which we operate. We look forward to sharing further progress in future reports.
https://www.tesla.com/ns_videos/tesla-impact-report-2019.pdf
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2273 on: May 18, 2019, 02:16:23 PM »
5 reasons why Tesla bought Maxwell Tech
...

Great description of the synergistic benefits of the acquisition.  It makes sense:  Tesla is at the stage they can improve the design of their upcoming products to take advantage the new tech.

From the video:  “Four or five months ago, [Maxwell touted] a potential huge partnership with an automaker.  Now we know that was most likely Tesla they were working with.  My guess is that the Roadster [2.0] and the Semi truck were ‘prototypes’ to test out Maxwell’s tech, and they liked it enough to acquire it.”

——-
A link, per thread guidelines:
Tesla completes acquisition of Maxwell, officially takes over the battery technology
https://electrek.co/2019/05/16/tesla-completes-maxwell-acquisition-battery-technology/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2274 on: May 18, 2019, 04:53:44 PM »
When the Tesla Model S disrupted the luxury car market in 2013, the big carmakers claimed they could make EVs, too — better EVs than Tesla — no problem, don’t worry.  And people felt comforted in their ICE habits as carmakers lied about that and their “clean diesels.”  Now, years later, the truth is being revealed for all to see.  And Tesla is still a global leader.

Sep 12, 2013Volkswagen Will Be The Biggest Electric-Car Maker In 2018, It Says
Quote
“We are starting at exactly the right time," said Group CEO Martin Winterkorn before the show.
"We are electrifying all vehicle classes, and therefore have everything we need to make the Volkswagen Group the top automaker in all respects, including electric mobility, by 2018."
https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1086902_volkswagen-will-be-the-biggest-electric-car-maker-in-2018-it-says

May 16, 2019BMW CEO defends record after first automaking loss in decade
Quote
The automaker reported its first loss in a decade in the main automotive division in the three month through March, after booking a 1.4 billion euro provision ($1.6 billion) for potential European Union fines over collusion. Even excluding this charge, the unit's return on sales dropped to the lowest point in 10 years.

"Where is this model offensive?" German shareholder association Vice-President Daniela Bergdolt said in her speech to loud applause from shareholders. "Sure, you've got the iNEXT, but I was expecting something that blows Tesla out of the water."
https://www.autonews.com/executives/bmw-ceo-defends-record-after-first-automaking-loss-decade

“BMW is toast.”
- ValueAnalyst
https://twitter.com/valueanalyst1/status/1129609722968072192

Quote
Not Elon Musk (@elonmusknt) 5/16/19, 10:39 PM
List of non $TSLA executive departures:

Mercedes USA CEO
Audi USA CEO
Nissan CEO
Renault CEO
NIO CEO
Volkswagen CEO

 I bet BMW is next.
https://twitter.com/elonmusknt/status/1129214826776076288
(Also Ford.  And the all-Audi CEO, who “departed” to jail.)
« Last Edit: May 18, 2019, 05:01:12 PM by Sigmetnow »
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2275 on: May 18, 2019, 04:58:48 PM »
...Sig used to bring actual Tesla news along with some cheerleading, with a known pink-colored tinge, but certainly not in the amount currently going on this thread.
...

It’s [color=purple].  ;) ;D
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b_lumenkraft

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2276 on: May 18, 2019, 05:16:24 PM »
5 reasons why Tesla bought Maxwell Tech
...

Great description of the synergistic benefits of the acquisition.

So this is highly speculative on my part, but i think there is one more thing.

Maxwell is famous for capacitors. For me, it is obvious one could use a capacitor to dramatically shorten charging times. A capacitor can take in a lot of power in a very short time and then discharge the power into the battery while you are already on the road again. Perhaps Tesla has something like that in mind for future cars.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2277 on: May 18, 2019, 05:49:17 PM »
5 reasons why Tesla bought Maxwell Tech
...

Great description of the synergistic benefits of the acquisition.

So this is highly speculative on my part, but i think there is one more thing.

Maxwell is famous for capacitors. For me, it is obvious one could use a capacitor to dramatically shorten charging times. A capacitor can take in a lot of power in a very short time and then discharge the power into the battery while you are already on the road again. Perhaps Tesla has something like that in mind for future cars.

Might work well in the Semi truck, with its multiple battery packs.  One pack can be “charging” underway while another is discharging to move the vehicle.  In time this could move down to individual battery modules in cars.
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b_lumenkraft

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2278 on: May 18, 2019, 06:26:15 PM »
As long as you put in more than you pull out, you can charge a battery (via the capacitor) even if you discharge it (with driving) at the same time. So it could be even done with a single module.

Looking forward to what they come up with. :)

magnamentis

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2279 on: May 18, 2019, 06:32:42 PM »
5 reasons why Tesla bought Maxwell Tech
...

Great description of the synergistic benefits of the acquisition.

So this is highly speculative on my part, but i think there is one more thing.

Maxwell is famous for capacitors. For me, it is obvious one could use a capacitor to dramatically shorten charging times. A capacitor can take in a lot of power in a very short time and then discharge the power into the battery while you are already on the road again. Perhaps Tesla has something like that in mind for future cars.

although we don't know whether tesla will adopt or is working on something into that direction, it's generally speaking and without any doubt a very good idea and approach.

this is the kind of synergetic energy managment that, without going into details, see as the future.

oren

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2280 on: May 18, 2019, 06:35:03 PM »
Capacitors can charge and discharge energy at a very high rate, but for a very short time, so I doubt they can be used with the ideas described above.
Some have speculated on using ultracapacitors for short term energy spikes during hard acceleration and extreme regen braking, but I am not even sure if that would be useful. In all probability, the Maxwell acquisition is about their new method of making batteries (dry coating I think), leading to cost reductions and higher energy densities.

Archimid

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2281 on: May 18, 2019, 07:00:54 PM »
Oren I believe you are referring to the Dry Battery Electrode (DBE) technology.

Quote
“We believe that our patent-protected, proprietary manufacturing process, which has been utilized through many years of ultracapacitor production, can be applied to the manufacturing of battery electrode without the use of solvents to produce a highly reliable electrode material with uniform characteristics resulting in enhanced product performance, long-term durability, and lower manufacturing cost.” (Maxwell Annual Report, 2017)

https://cleantechnica.com/2019/02/04/the-ultracapacitors-electrodes-battery-manufacturing-tech-tesla-gets-with-maxwell-technologies/


If this DBE technology is real thi sis what Maxwell expected from it:





The following video goes into some details and the timeline of this acquisition and the potential for Tesla batteries.



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b_lumenkraft

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2282 on: May 18, 2019, 07:09:32 PM »
Capacitors can charge and discharge energy at a very high rate, but for a very short time, so I doubt they can be used with the ideas described above.

Yes, agreed. For now. As mentioned, this is highly speculative.

Quote
Some have speculated on using ultracapacitors for short term energy spikes during hard acceleration and extreme regen braking, but I am not even sure if that would be useful. In all probability, the Maxwell acquisition is about their new method of making batteries (dry coating I think), leading to cost reductions and higher energy densities.

That's a given IMHO.

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2283 on: May 18, 2019, 08:36:27 PM »
China makes a lot of EVs, but most are hybrids or small, low-range models.  Other EV manufacturers have far to go to rival Tesla’s dominance.

Tesla dominates carmakers in battery capacity deployed, including state-backed rivals in China
Quote
Tesla’s deployments were so dominating that the company not only beat its rivals in the United States and the European region; the electric car maker also bested 486 registered electric vehicle manufacturers in China. These include BYD, which is personally backed by billionaire Warren Buffett, as well as BJEV, the electric car brand of state-owned automaker BAIC. Tesla beat BYD two to one on a MWh-basis, while dominating BJEV by a factor of four despite the EV-maker getting direct support from Beijing.

Tesla’s numbers become even more impressive when compared to those of its rivals in the United States and Europe. At 2,889 MWh, Tesla’s battery deployment is close to equaling the combined total of its competitors outside Adamas’ Top 10 list, which include large brands such as Ford, Mercedes-Benz, and Volkswagen. It should also be noted that the figures of Tesla’s competitors include batteries that were installed on hybrid vehicles, making the Silicon Valley-based electric car maker’s performance even more notable.

Also impressive is that Tesla was able to deploy 2,889 MWh of electric car batteries during a month when the battery deployment of its flagship vehicles, the Model S and Model X, saw a decline of over 40%. Following a recently-released improvements to the sedan and SUV, Tesla’s deployments for the vehicles could see an increase in the coming months.
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-battery-deployment-tops-global-ev-makers/
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2284 on: May 18, 2019, 08:47:16 PM »
Unlike a battery, the voltage of a capacitor changes substantially when it is discharged/charged. If I remember correctly, this is a major obstacle when integrating a capacitor into an battery EV power system, as the electronics and/or the motor would have to be redesigned significantly to accommodate.

magnamentis

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2285 on: May 18, 2019, 08:51:34 PM »
Capacitors can charge and discharge energy at a very high rate, but for a very short time, so I doubt they can be used with the ideas described above.
Some have speculated on using ultracapacitors for short term energy spikes during hard acceleration and extreme regen braking, but I am not even sure if that would be useful. In all probability, the Maxwell acquisition is about their new method of making batteries (dry coating I think), leading to cost reductions and higher energy densities.

perhaps not exactly, perhaps not solely and perhaps not just like that but they can be used and it is a useful approach that deserves further attention and development.

if it were easy as that it would be a no-brainer and i don't think that anyone assumed one simply has to to apply it and all is running and running better than before.

BTW, each post leaves room for a reply, even a sceptical, a negative and/or a correcting reply, but it does not have to done each time, that leaves a smell over time. one factor of wisdom is to choose when it's worth it and the motivation behind it.

it's like with medicine, any medicine becomes a poison when applied in overdoses. ;)

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2286 on: May 18, 2019, 09:27:22 PM »
‘Tesla killers’ are celebrating 7-year anniversary since Model S debut
Quote
In just a few weeks, Tesla’s first mass-produced vehicle (Model S) will be celebrating 7 years on the road. Back in June 2012, people would scoff when you would mention Tesla, “Who’s going to buy an electric car, let alone a luxury electric car??”

A lot has changed since then. The company has sold over 260,000 Model S’ globally since its debut and it has yet to be dethroned as the longest-range electric vehicle on the road. After analysts and naysayers starting paying attention to Tesla in late 2012 (hint: Model S was Motor Trend Car of the Year in 2012), another narrative took shape, The Germans will squash these California guys, just wait a few years.

So here we are, 7 years later. Audi has just released its first real EV, the e-tron, and Mercedes is in the process of launching their counterpart, the EQC, BMW is nowhere to be found. While the e-tron and the EQC are meaningful ploys to keep Audi and Mercedes customers from fleeing to Tesla, they seem underwhelming and late. The e-tron is equipped with a massive 95 kWh battery, but only erks out 204-miles of EPA range, and the EQC is estimated to land somewhere in between 200-220 miles* with an 80 kWh battery.

Let’s be clear, no one is a bigger fan of automakers entering the EV space. Audi’s e-tron should be considered an overture for the upcoming Audi and Porsche co-developed electric vehicles, which will sport one of the first 800V systems, longer range, and more efficient motors. But one thing is clear here, Tesla is still miles and years ahead of the Germans. Porsche’s upcoming Taycan would have been quite competitive with the 2018 Model S, but with the Model S’s latest platform update sporting 370-miles [595 km] out of a 100 kWh battery, Tesla’s lead becomes more and more apparent. Things haven’t panned out as 2013 wall street envisioned.
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-killers-are-celebrating-7-year-anniversary-since-model-s-debut/

*“closer to 200”:  https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2686.msg199867.html#msg199867
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2287 on: May 18, 2019, 09:39:37 PM »
Free with purchase (and even without a purchase):  the Tesla Community.
An invaluable asset.

”As a last-ditch effort, Andrews went to the nearest charging station, the EVgo station near the Leader Heights exit off Interstate 83. It might sound crazy, she said, but she was going to ask complete strangers driving Teslas if they would take her son and his date to the prom.

The second person she approached, said yes.”


Stranger with 'heart of gold,' and a Tesla, drives York Tech seniors to prom
https://amp.ydr.com/amp/3709833002
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2288 on: May 19, 2019, 02:35:41 AM »
...
Quote
Not Elon Musk (@elonmusknt) 5/16/19, 10:39 PM
List of non $TSLA executive departures:

Mercedes USA CEO
Audi USA CEO
Nissan CEO
Renault CEO
NIO CEO
Volkswagen CEO

 I bet BMW is next.
https://twitter.com/elonmusknt/status/1129214826776076288
(Also Ford.  And the all-Audi CEO, who “departed” to jail.)

And now Mitsubishi
May 17, 2019
Masuko to step down as Mitsubishi Motors CEO; Kato to succeed him
https://www.autonews.com/executives/masuko-step-down-mitsubishi-motors-ceo-kato-succeed-him

Hey, Tesla bears:  Elon Musk, CEO, for the win! :P
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2289 on: May 19, 2019, 03:34:33 AM »
Quote
Bark (@BarkMSmeagol) 5/17/19, 1:29 PM
Even with the smear campaign firing on all cylinders 24/7 for years and years, @Tesla’s brand value increased 60%. Great job #DumDums. You’re officially terrible at your job  ;D :D ;D :D ;D ...
https://brandz.com/admin/uploads/files/BZ_Global_2018_DL.pdf   ...
https://twitter.com/barkmsmeagol/status/1129438732333936640
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ASILurker

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2290 on: May 19, 2019, 10:45:01 AM »
Quote
Bark (@BarkMSmeagol) 5/17/19, 1:29 PM
Even with the smear campaign firing on all cylinders 24/7 for years and years,

@Tesla’s brand value increased 60%. Great job #DumDums. You’re officially terrible at your job 

;D :D ;D :D ;D ...


Ha, what sad pathetic "joke" that is.

What a waste of space ALL Sigmetnow's Corporate Shill PR Posts are! 
« Last Edit: May 21, 2019, 06:11:04 PM by Lurk »

magnamentis

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2291 on: May 19, 2019, 06:25:42 PM »
quote]Not Elon Musk (@elonmusknt) 5/16/19, 10:39 PM
List of non $TSLA executive departures:

Mercedes USA CEO
Audi USA CEO
Nissan CEO
Renault CEO
NIO CEO
Volkswagen CEO

 I bet BMW is next.
https://twitter.com/elonmusknt/status/1129214826776076288
(Also Ford.  And the all-Audi CEO, who “departed” to jail.)
[/quote]

And now Mitsubishi
May 17, 2019
Masuko to step down as Mitsubishi Motors CEO; Kato to succeed him
https://www.autonews.com/executives/masuko-step-down-mitsubishi-motors-ceo-kato-succeed-him
[/quote]

what are you trying to convey ?

the point has never been that at times CEOs leave/rotate.

the point was how often and after how little time.

the above mentioned have often been in charge for years and those who were not like nissan's VW's latest etc. were basically involved in criminal or questionable activities.

hence if we apply the reasons for their demis to their work and attitudes and translate it to the tesla case we are exactly spot on to what all statements about frequent manangment changes at tesla are saying.

they are saying that something can't be quite right, hence your list and as far as the reasons for CEO changes is concerned you basically confirm the suspicions on which such mentions were based.

"eigentor" we call it where i come from.

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oren

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2293 on: May 20, 2019, 05:16:45 AM »
Tesla Pivots To Oblivion
May 17, 2019

The author does a great job, imho, compiling so much historically accurate up-to-date and relevant credible information with source references into a single accessible document.
The article though long and detailed is quite biased, focusing on the bad parts and skipping over good parts, while interpreting everything with a negative tinge. It doesn't mean it's not useful, as it contains a lot of justified criticism, but it should be handled with care.
To put things into context, the author's past articles were similarly themed:
* Tesla Endgame - Sep. 9, 2018
* Tesla Approaches Terminal Decline - Nov. 10, 2017
* The Big Tesla Swindle - Apr. 18, 2017
* Debunking The Tesla Mythology - Jul. 22, 2016

I won't bother highlighting biases (I like Magnamentis' approach, it's not useful to respond with rebuttals to every post) but one paragraph caught my eye in particular:
Quote
Model 3 operating cost savings, one of Tesla’s most prominent sales arguments besides straight-line acceleration, do not materialise for many Europeans: The Model 3 SR+ with 415km range starts at €45,480, which is over €13,000 more compared to the Škoda Octavia Premium 2.0 TDI that features more options, better interior and a higher fit and finish quality. The Model 3 uses 20kWh per 100km driven in mild weather on city and country roads, which means that at €0,29 cost of domestic electricity per kWh in Germany – Tesla’s own charger cost per kWh being higher – the cost per 100km is €5.8, whereas the Škoda uses 5.3l diesel per 100km under the same conditions. At a cost of €1.24 per litre diesel, the cost per 100km is €6.6. At an average of 15,000km driven per year, the operating cost difference is a mere €120 per year and is further diminished in the cold and winter weather season via battery pre-heating and battery discharge, as well as via higher insurance and repair costs.
This contains a factual error, as the Model 3 uses ~15 kwh/100km. Moreover, the author picks the country with the highest kwh price in Europe, with a relatively cheap Diesel price as well, to get at a result of near parity in operating cost with a 45-mpg Skoda.
Real comparison in Germany - €4.5 for Tesla vs. €6.6 for Skoda per 100 km. €315/year in savings.
Comparison in France (kwh costs €0.15, diesel costs €1.47) - €2.25 vs. €7.8, €830/year in savings.

Is the difference important to car buyers? Not sure. But it's a far cry from €120/year.

Tesla seems to be managed erratically, with Model 3 variants disappearing and reappearing, prices going up and down, periodical extreme cost cutting, stores closing and then not closing, not raising capital and then raising capital. I strongly dislike it. But I also dislike biased criticism especially when it's constantly harped. There are lots of entrenched corporate interests that would love to see Tesla wiped out, both in the oil sector and in the cars industry, and of course the huge shorts community. A lot of the negative media is generated by these interests. I prefer to focus on actual results. Q3 and Q4 were good, Q1 disastrous, I see Q2 as a make or break. Not meeting the minimum 90k delivery guidance will be a big failure.

Quote
Global near-term outlook
For Tesla to meet 2019 lower-end guidance of 360,000 sales, the company must sell 99,000 cars in each of the remaining three quarters. With April and half of May over, based on cars in transit and shipping activity, I estimate Q2 sales (and sales drivers) as follows: 22,000 Model 3 Europe (standard range plus, more shipping volume); 30,000 Model 3 North America (standard range plus, leasing); 12,000 Model 3 China (more shipping volume) and 16,000 Model S and X global (higher range, discounts) for 80,000 total sales at shrinking ASPs and margins.

Q2 delivery predictions:
Andreas Hopf - 64,000 M3, 16,000 S/X, 80,000 Total
Anthon Wahlman (May 17th) - 61,750 M3, 12,250 S/X, 74,000 Total

ASILurker

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2294 on: May 20, 2019, 01:44:43 PM »
Several weeks to 2 months ago I said my "opinion" (expected forecast) was that Tesla's share price is highly likely to drop to and below $200 at some point before the end of the year.

At the time TSLA was somewhere around $330 after recovering from one of it's crashes.

In pre-trade today @6:39 am on May 5th 2019 TSLA had fallen to $201.01

TSLA has since recovered to $203 however .... MENE, MENE, TEKEL, UPHARSIN

Is $201.01 close enough to $200 to make the claim that: "I told you so!"

==========

10:28 a.m. EDT

Now it's $198.62

It was 196.64


https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/tsla

This "must be" because of all the "Tesla Haters" in this world and all those horrible "biased articles" being written ... could not possibly be based on the knowable facts say the "Deniers of Reality".
« Last Edit: May 21, 2019, 06:15:49 AM by Lurk »

Archimid

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2295 on: May 20, 2019, 01:52:35 PM »
Quote
Some people can say any old shit they want to say about other people, no matter how untrue, insulting, aggressive and intentionally disruptive it is intended to be and still get away with it every single time!

Mirror, mirror.
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NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2296 on: May 20, 2019, 02:19:58 PM »
Several weeks to 2 months ago I said my "opinion" (expected forecast) was that Tesla's share price is highly likely to drop to and below $200 at some point before the end of the year.

You said that last year too.  I guess that if you keep on saying it then it is possible is could actually happen.

Let us contrast 2018H2 and 2019H1. 

In H2 2018 Tesla were just about getting through their production and delivery issues.  The end of full subsidies (yes it's half now), was upcoming which was driving demand.  Gigafactory 3 was yet to be started and Tesla was running the risk of running out of cash without a rights issue which would drive stock value lower.

In H1 2019m there has been a collapse in demand for ALL vehicle sales, let alone EV, trade tensions are reaching a peak again causing demand for ALL vehicles to China to drop.  Tesla had another Model3 death whilst under Autopilot just after the FSD launch.

At the same time Tesla had a rights issue, which had a short term bounce followed by the inevitable drop.  To add to that Bears and shorts are talking about Tesla running out of cash.  Yet Tesla had cash on hand to see the year out without the rights/debt issue.  Tesla now has another $2bn cash reserves from the rights/debt issue, plus it has another $1.5bn available (minimum), in the agreed loans for Gigafactory 3.  Yet the shorts continue to talk about running out of money.  I make current cash on hand now viable for 2 years of operation for the existing manufacturing facilities and an additional year of Gigafactory 3 on top of that also through agreed funding capacity.

Gigafactory 3 has started the internal build out with A/C units (seen on the latest video footage today) and I see the concrete mixers starting to load up for the flooring of the factory.  Which means most of the roof and walls are weathertight to allow the pours to go without issue.  This means, to me, that the build team will make the end May Phase1 completion.  Or if they miss it, it will only be by days, not weeks.

 I note that the Autopilot software, involved in the crash, required the drivers hands on the wheel.  Again, the hands were not on the wheel.  The FSD software is nowhere near delivery yet, but the shorts and analysts are comparing apples with earthmovers (again), having Tesla as totally failed to deliver FSD; which they have not even started to deliver.....  It was only just launched as a future product alongside RoboTaxi.

Yep, Tesla is around 200.

Enjoy it whilst you can.
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oren

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2297 on: May 20, 2019, 02:44:10 PM »
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3465246-tesla-minus-4-percent-wedbush-cites-major-concerns
Quote
"We continue to have major concerns around the trajectory of Tesla's growth prospects and underlying demand on Model 3 in the US over the coming quarters which is putting more heat in the kitchen on Musk & Tesla to reign in expenses at an accelerated rate with profitability targets in 2H19 a Kilimanjaro-like uphill climb," warns Ives.

Ives and team sees a best case deliveries total of 360K to 370K for the full year and a base case scenario of 340K to 355K.

"Additionally, with a code red situation at Tesla, Musk & Co. are expanding into insurance, robotaxis, and other sci-fi projects/endeavors when the company instead should be laser focused on shoring up core demand for Model 3 and simplifying its business model and expense structure in our opinion with headwinds abound," he goes on.
I share similar concerns. Company should be laser focused on deliveries, service, and its cost structure. Musk seems to aim for very long range goals while seemingly not making sure the road will actually get the company from here to there.

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2298 on: May 20, 2019, 03:39:16 PM »
Don't worry that the company is totally illiquid! The china "factory" (aka warehouse shell) will surely be pumping out cars any day now.

Don't worry that the share price is plummeting, sales are plummeting, average sale prices are plummeting, AutoPilot is a total joke (aside from the fact that it is a death trap), there are no adults at the company. Meh.

Niel, Arch, and Sig say go long. SO GO LONG!

Worst case scenario, when the company goes BK, Musk will buy each share for $0.420. So at least there is a price floor.

big time oops

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2299 on: May 20, 2019, 03:50:21 PM »
Several weeks to 2 months ago I said my "opinion" (expected forecast) was that Tesla's share price is highly likely to drop to and below $200 at some point before the end of the year.

You said that last year too.  I guess that if you keep on saying it then it is possible is could actually happen.

I think you may have Lurk and GSY mixed up as Lurk has only been spamming the thread since February.