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Jim Hunt

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2400 on: May 29, 2019, 12:52:21 AM »
<It was a long read, hence the late approval. It's not on-topic either (social media thread or some such would be better), but I'll let it stand; N.>

This is off topic too, but you've set a precedent now! At least this is short.

I come hot foot from Twitter via Terry Pratchett's biographer:

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In 1996 Terry Pratchett interviewed Bill Gates for GQ and accurately predicted how the internet would propagate and legitimise fake news. Gates didn’t believe him.
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2401 on: May 29, 2019, 12:54:51 AM »
Just not true. Paying back debt does not affect profit, just removes a liability from the balance sheet. There was a big loss in Q1, unaffected by debt repayment.


OK I'll take that, I have never been line by line, but debt repayments (or possibly interest on them, can't remember), figure in the P&L calculations I've seen.

I guess it is wait and wait and wait until we get more actual figures then.

If I cared more I'd go through the entire financial report for one time costs and the variance from actual operational expenses incurred in the production, sales and delivery of the vehicles.  Set against the energy business, which is clearly currently lossmaking.

We know that Tesla makes a profit on every car they manufacture.  We also know that they have other costs of business which consume that profit and, most of the time, more than the profit they make.

I do wonder, if you were to ask them, how much it would cost Intel or AMD to build, from the ground up, a brand new ASIC and create the operating system software and port an existing set of application software to it.

They are exceptional costs which are not part of the day to day production of vehicles.  But getting that new hardware/software combination into the vehicles in Q1 will have come with a fairly high sticker price.  Something which will not repeat in the quarters going forward.

Although Tesla does still need to complete the development on the FSD software and get it through regulation for use.  Again, a cost which will be met, mainly, from operational profit.

I do fill out my own company tax return....  I'm not completely unaware and burbling.  But I must talk to my daughter (accounts exec), about the mechanisms of this, when she arrives on Saturday.  Just so I have it clear in my  head.
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NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2402 on: May 29, 2019, 01:00:30 AM »
But internet orders are “through the roof.”  ;)

No, no, no, Noooooo

The Amazon of the car market.  No we can't have that.  After all Amazon stock is far more shorted than Tesla...

But it is a point.  Everyone said that Amazon would fail because who, after all, would buy books without going to a book shop and looking at them.  Let alone all the other stuff Amazon sells.

But it is very true, Tesla is leveraging a different market base for the sales of its cars.  This causes some problems as the buffer zone of the dealer doesn't exist.  So Tesla sales directly reflect surging and ebbing demand on a quarterly basis.  Something the traditional dealer network would more normally reflect on a half year or annual basis.  Making it much more of a roller coaster for Tesla.
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crandles

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2403 on: May 29, 2019, 01:21:38 AM »
OK I'll take that, I have never been line by line, but debt repayments (or possibly interest on them, can't remember), figure in the P&L calculations I've seen.

Only the interest on debt goes through the P&L.

NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2404 on: May 29, 2019, 01:32:11 AM »
Only the interest on debt goes through the P&L.

So, essentially, how does the repayment of capital get recorded?  This time it came out of profit from the prior two quarters.  But at the end of the year that money has to be accounted somewhere as it is profit which was spent to repay debt, even if it did not come from the same operating quarter.
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oren

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2405 on: May 29, 2019, 02:47:50 AM »
Paying debt does not make any effect on profit. It has an effect on cash flow, a different beast.
"It came from profit of the two previous quarters" - profit mostly affects cash flow, which helps explain this.

Revenue less cost of goods sold - affects profit and cash flow.
Interest expenses - affects profit and cash flow.
Depreciation - affects profit but not cash flow.
Increasing inventory - affects cash flow but not profit.
Financing (loan, loan repayment) - affects cash flow but not profit.

crandles

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2406 on: May 29, 2019, 02:57:12 AM »

>So, essentially, how does the repayment of capital get recorded? 
Dr Liability A/c
Cr Bank A/c
Both balance sheet accounts

>"This time it came out of profit from the prior two quarters.  But at the end of the year that money has to be accounted somewhere as it is profit which was spent to repay debt, even if it did not come from the same operating quarter."

Not following this at all. Why prior two quarters?

The interest is a separate transaction:

Dr Interest (P&L Account)
Cr Liability Account (Bal Sheet)

And the third type of transaction is the original advance of the loan
Dr Bank
Cr Liability A/c
(both Balance Sheet accounts again)

The net effect of the three transaction types (from loan start to after full repayment) is
Dr Interest
Cr Bank

(Dr = Debit = Expense(P&L) or Asset(BS), Cr = Credit = Income(P&L) or Liability(BS) so 'Cr Bank' is money going out of bank account. Yes confusing to some; bank statements are just that  statements from the Bank's point of view not the customers point of view.)

GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2407 on: May 29, 2019, 05:03:19 PM »
Quote
What technology? Genuinely curious what tech Tesla has that ppl think is valuable to other companies.

I refer this as evidence to Neven that some people do not know the superiority of Tesla EV, thus the Motor Trend article declaring Model 3 the best luxury sedan was on topic.

I refer this as evidence that no Bull can actually get technical and explain what "amazing proprietary tech" Tesla owns.

Tech is proprietary, and not always put into production.

So Tesla's tech is soooooo special, they aren't putting it in their cars. Right...
big time oops

GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2408 on: May 29, 2019, 05:08:57 PM »
Solar energy hasn't worked out as planned for Tesla, and the company needs to remove the distraction from the business.

This is incorrect. The Solar City acquisition worked out exactly as planned. The company was going bankrupt and that was going to hurt Musk's imagine and thus the ability for Tesla and SpaceX to raise money. Tesla bought SC to do a controlled demolition and prevent collateral damage to Musk's reputation.
big time oops

Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2409 on: May 29, 2019, 05:36:19 PM »
Sorry, Neven, but this one is important:  Historical adversaries Top Gear vs. Tesla, and the Tesla Model 3 vs. the BMW M3.

Calling Elon's bluff: Tesla Model 3 vs BMW M3 | Top Gear
https://www.topgear.com/car-news/electric/calling-elons-bluff-tesla-model-3-vs-bmw-m3#1
Video at the end of the article.
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

magnamentis

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2410 on: May 29, 2019, 06:06:50 PM »
Sorry, Neven, but this one is important:  Historical adversaries Top Gear vs. Tesla, and the Tesla Model 3 vs. the BMW M3.

Calling Elon's bluff: Tesla Model 3 vs BMW M3 | Top Gear
https://www.topgear.com/car-news/electric/calling-elons-bluff-tesla-model-3-vs-bmw-m3#1
Video at the end of the article.

sorry too because it's NOT important and NOT relevant. the car's performance does not play a significant role in the fate of tesla as a company which is the original topic of this thread. if tesla survives, means, sooner or later pays its debts and make net profits, it will be glory and if not it will be fail, no matter the product. ther have been greater inventors than that who died poor while the afterworld made billions with their ideas and achievements, but this is not the topic of this discussion.

the never ending distraction from the purpose here is responsible that we go in circles. someone is trying to provide really factual information as to why tesla will most probably falter, and some fanboys replay with sales numbers short after shiploads have arrived in a country, car performance and hyped autonomous driving that is years out to be ready for the masses and won't change the fate of tesla either. only that those buzz-campaigns prolong the downfall because some new fanboys  join the trip while others are jumping ship. this will go on until the later outnumber the former by far and guess what. the cumulated losses of supporters will reach new highs and the more it will be, the higher the chance that elon will spend time behind bars.

after all it's a ponzi scheme  on highest level, topped only by federal banks and politics.

GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2411 on: May 29, 2019, 06:29:41 PM »
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/29/tesla-fremont-factory-prepping-for-model-y-production-model-s-refresh.html

-Cutting X and S production. Cutting their prices too (as is the recent norm). And adding incentives.

-Model Y factory equipment not yet ordered.

By far the most interesting thing in the article is the apparent plan to offer a MORE minimalist interior on the theoretically upcoming refreshed Model S. This is interesting because there was already nothing in the interior. Maybe no airbags and/or seats. After all, FSD will be fully ready by the fall, so no safety features will be needed cuz computers are superior drivers.
big time oops

oren

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2412 on: May 29, 2019, 06:40:22 PM »
Haven't watched the video, but the car's performance in general does play a role in people's decisions to buy the car or not.

The car is sold with positive gross margin. Ponzi schemes have negative margins. Big difference.
To become profitable, Tesla needs to sell enough cars to cover ongoing expenses. The more cars it sells, the smaller the loss or the bigger the profit. This is the behavior of a positive margin product.
Note: The company also has the option of reducing expenses, for example development costs of new projects and autonomous driving. Part of the reason the past has seen so many losses is these development costs, factory buildups, supercharger network rollout, and other expenses which were used to grow the business.

But the main thing that will decide Tesla's glory or failure is the number of people ordering the cars, and Tesla's ability to deliver these orders. No use pouring so many words, full of certainty, when the main factor is unknown and will become known only over time.

GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2413 on: May 29, 2019, 06:42:15 PM »
Putting together some recent news according to Tesla:

-Upgrades happening at Fremont to prepare for Model Y production. This is the reason for slowdown in production of other models.

-Model Y deliveries still more than a year away.

-Chinese factory almost complete.

-Chinese factory production in a few months tops.

So obviously none of that makes sense together. Nothing is happening for the Model Y, which should be obvious as Tesla hasn't yet ordered the equipment necessary. Thus the slowdown in production is due to lack of demand. Which makes perfect sense as to why Tesla continues to cut prices. There is no demand.

This should have been long expected. The car designs got stale. The company pulled back from CapEx for service and charging. Government incentives decreased. Musk's lying in the past year entered into the over-the-top and obvious. And, competition arrived... (which will only get much more intense in the coming year)
big time oops

b_lumenkraft

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2414 on: May 29, 2019, 06:46:00 PM »
Haven't watched the video

Tesla won 3:1.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2415 on: May 29, 2019, 08:07:17 PM »
Sorry, Neven, but this one is important:  Historical adversaries Top Gear vs. Tesla, and the Tesla Model 3 vs. the BMW M3.

Calling Elon's bluff: Tesla Model 3 vs BMW M3 | Top Gear
https://www.topgear.com/car-news/electric/calling-elons-bluff-tesla-model-3-vs-bmw-m3#1
Video at the end of the article.

Performance involves many things.  Different things are important to different people, and some are more interesting to make a video about than others, but “Performance” is a HUGE reason people will buy a Tesla instead of any other car. 

Tesla Model S, 3, X takes on Audi e-tron in Autobahn range and efficiency test
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-model-s-3-x-vs-audi-e-tron-autobahn-range-efficiency-test-video/

Tom Randall, of Bloomberg Tracker fame, has opened a survey to look into the Model 3 experience.
Quote
Tom Randall (@tsrandall) 5/28/19, 10:51 AM
Bloomberg’s "Tesla Model 3 Tracker” is moving to phase two! A year and a half ago, we built a model to estimate factory output for Elon Musk’s most important car. Now we’re conducting an extensive survey about the experience of owning one 1/
https://twitter.com/tsrandall/status/1133385238049107968

Edit:  If you have not been following article comments and social media closely for the last few years, you may not be aware of the major battle between BMW and Tesla fans, or the Tesla-TopGear lawsuit.  Seeing them swing to the Tesla side of the equation is an important milestone that bodes well for Tesla Glory.
« Last Edit: May 29, 2019, 08:12:37 PM by Sigmetnow »
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Jim Hunt

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2416 on: May 29, 2019, 08:15:27 PM »
Historical adversaries Top Gear vs. Tesla

In actual fact Jeremy Clarkson wants to save the world:



Not Neven's cup of tea I'm sure, but Jeremy was mightily impressed by the Rimac Concept 1 also.

« Last Edit: May 30, 2019, 12:31:09 AM by Jim Hunt »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2417 on: May 29, 2019, 08:17:46 PM »
Tesla Order Rate Surges 25% Worldwide, 116% In North America, According To New Data
https://cleantechnica.com/2019/05/29/tesla-order-rate-surges-25-worldwide-116-in-north-america-according-to-new-data/

Tesla to open pre-orders for locally-made Model 3 in China on May 31
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-model-3-china-pre-order-release-date-gigafactory-3/
(Would Tesla risk cannibalizing the sales of the more expensive Teslas in Q2 and Q3 if Giga 3 wasn’t on track to begin production soon?)

Sales of ModelX100D sales in Norway- went sky high in the last weeks. It already has sold 3x more than a month before and momentum continues.
5/28: ModelX today had incredible delivery numbers: 3x more than etron audi. 2x more than i-pace. And yes 1 more than Model3!
Indeed ModelX is the most sold EV today in Norway!  Source : elbilstatistikk.no
Do ppl compare it to etron audi? Teslastat.no  An average etron audi is around 800000k, discounted modelx is around 850000k still [more] expensive. Yet ppl compare! Brilliant move from Tesla. Once u compare at similar price point, Tesla is vastly superior fun and reliable SUV
https://twitter.com/alpsoy66/status/1133415608048082946

- Model 3 Leasing now available in Germany
https://twitter.com/nilsengelking/status/1132977437036417025
Overall Lease-rate in Germany is about 40%. Most businesses only do leasing. Price includes VAT of 19%., most business can deduct that.
< Do the car owners have to return leased cars? Confirming if its a Global taxi or just USA?
- You have to return it

First batch of RHD Model 3 cars anticipated by UK owners, to be delivered at end of June.
https://twitter.com/yaghus2/status/1133629555867115520

Tesla Model 3 Standard Range ($35,400) Starting To Be Delivered With Software-Locked Range & Features — Should You Buy?
https://cleantechnica.com/2019/05/28/standard-range-tesla-model-3s-for-35400-starting-to-be-delivered-with-software-locked-range-features-should-you-buy/

While OEMs are being crushed under the burdens of holding record high inventory, in some US cities there are near zero Teslas available.
https://twitter.com/elonmusknt/status/1133531636749012993

Tesla is preparing Fremont factory for Model Y, Model S refresh production: report
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-model-y-model-s-refresh-production-to-start-in-fremont/

Oversold = “Priced below its true value”
Tesla (TSLA) shares currently ‘oversold,’ says Oppenheimer amid $437 price target
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-tsla-shares-are-oversold-oppenheimer/

Quote
ValueAnalyst (@ValueAnalyst1) 5/29/19, 7:50 AM
The latest $TSLAQ FUD is that @Tesla is doing too well.
https://twitter.com/valueanalyst1/status/1133702231180623872
Paraphrasing: OK, yes, there is a global demand for the Model 3.  You WANT them to beat Q2 expectations, because that just makes Q3 harder, and then they’ll fail.

FCA-Renault megamerger is born of desperation
Quote
When the U.S. auto industry was looking down a barrel in 2008, General Motors did the unthinkable and quietly proposed a merger with cross-town rival Ford Motor Co.
It didn’t happen – GM ended up filing for Chapter 11, while Ford managed to avoid a bailout. But the fact they even broached the matter spoke volumes about the pressures the Detroit 3 rivals were under.
Now Europe’s auto industry has its own pause-and-gasp-for-breath equivalent. On Monday, Fiat Chrysler Automobiles said it hopes to merge with France's Renault to form the world’s third-largest carmaker (or by far the largest if you include Renault’s alliance partner Nissan, which arguably one should). …
https://www.autonews.com/commentary/fca-renault-megamerger-born-desperation
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Neven

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2418 on: May 29, 2019, 10:59:22 PM »
I'm going to sign off from this thread for a while (too busy with Arctic sea ice and other stuff), so I won't be able to enforce the rules I have set for it. So, anything goes again, long-winded analysis, personal opinions, whatever. I'm also going to put GSY off moderation, because he's been such a good boy in the sea ice threads, but if he offers nothing more than insults again at some point, let me know.  ;)
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2419 on: May 30, 2019, 02:02:50 AM »
I'm going to sign off from this thread for a while (too busy with Arctic sea ice and other stuff), so I won't be able to enforce the rules I have set for it. So, anything goes again, long-winded analysis, personal opinions, whatever. I'm also going to put GSY off moderation, because he's been such a good boy in the sea ice threads, but if he offers nothing more than insults again at some point, let me know.  ;)

Enjoy your time off!  But jeez, you could at least suggest that folks play by the rules while you’re gone.  Encourage some civility to aspire to. ;)
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GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2420 on: May 30, 2019, 03:10:49 AM »
Screw civility! The adults are gone. Let's tear this thing up!!!

big time oops

GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2421 on: May 30, 2019, 03:31:22 AM »
In all honesty though, I'm going to try to be concise and straight forward. And I hope Lurk does the same. And Archimid and Sig (especially), PLEASE dont post endless charts of meaningless Tesla data.

We all actually want less emission but just disagree on the how.

Let's keep the thread clean with only stuff that is super germane to Tesla becoming a trillion dollar behemoth glory and ch. 7 liquidation shame.

The societal side is super important but lets respect Neven's more pressing role of moderating the more sciency side of this forum.
big time oops

oren

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2422 on: May 30, 2019, 04:10:18 AM »
Well said GSY.

Archimid

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2423 on: May 30, 2019, 05:27:11 AM »
Quote
dont post endless charts of meaningless Tesla data.

How can I know what has meaning to you?  Impossible. Be more specific on what type of "data" you don't want to see and maybe we can come to an agreement.

Quote
We all actually want less emission but just disagree on the how.

Can you briefly expose your "how"? Irrelevant, please ignore.

Quote
Let's keep the thread clean with only stuff that is super germane to Tesla becoming a trillion dollar behemoth glory and ch. 7 liquidation shame.

Just to measure your good truthfulness, are reviews and comparisons of Tesla cars with other cars "germane" to "Tesla becoming a trillion dollar behemoth glory"?

Quote
The societal side is super important but lets respect Neven's more pressing role of moderating the more sciency side of this forum.

Sure.
« Last Edit: May 30, 2019, 11:37:33 AM by Archimid »
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oren

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2424 on: May 30, 2019, 08:58:55 AM »
Quote
We all actually want less emission but just disagree on the how.

Can you briefly expose your "how"?
I beg, please not on this thread. You will not agree with each other and it's irrelevant to Tesla's chances of glory or failure.

b_lumenkraft

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2425 on: May 30, 2019, 11:34:19 AM »
This one is a deep dive into battery tech.

How Tesla batteries work with Ravindra Kempaiah


Archimid

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2426 on: May 30, 2019, 11:39:44 AM »
I beg, please not on this thread. You will not agree with each other and it's irrelevant to Tesla's chances of glory or failure.

You are right, as usual.

GSY lets leave the argument about emissions reductions strategies for some other thread.
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2427 on: May 31, 2019, 01:24:14 AM »
...
Let's try again. Post articles pro and contra, and resist the urge to go nuts over one sentence. Just post the stuff, and sooner or later we'll find out whether Tesla makes it or not.

To most people, sales numbers are an important indicator of success (or failure).  To others, numbers from a financial report are significant. Everyone likes to highlight data that supports their point of view, and what seems meaningful to some is inconsequential to others.  Some believe Elon Musk (with a side of optimism), others feel he constantly lies.  Post, and let readers decide for themselves.

For example, TSLAQ has been saying for weeks that Q2 production would be a bust — less than 72k cars, in the face of repeated guidance from Tesla of 90-100k.  But an email from Elon is leaked stating production is 900+ cars a day, pushing for 1,000 — and suddenly they crow that Elon is targeting their estimates, at 92k!  ::)

Read Elon Musk’s email to Tesla employees about accelerating Q2 deliveries
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-tsla-elon-musk-emails-employees-about-accelerating-q2-deliveries/

Adam Jonas’s Thoughts on Tesla: Facts or Fantasies?
https://cleantechnica.com/2019/05/29/adam-jonass-thoughts-on-tesla-facts-or-fantasies/

Edit: more on the TSLAQ claims, if you are interested. (Because FUD negatively affects stock price.): https://twitter.com/m8728205808/status/1133919911636480000

https://twitter.com/vincent13031925/status/1134109340653113346
« Last Edit: May 31, 2019, 01:44:31 AM by Sigmetnow »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2428 on: May 31, 2019, 01:27:02 AM »
Do you expect any EV from any manufacturer to outsell Model 3 Standard in China in 2020?
https://twitter.com/valueanalyst1/status/1134107587069321216


Edit:  will add these here.

Tesla’s impending made-in-China Model 3 assault should scare critics
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-made-in-china-model-3-assault-scares-tsla-critics/

Tesla Gigafactory 3’s completion will be an inconvenient truth for TSLA skeptics
https://www.teslarati.com/teslas-gigafactory-3-starts-model-3-offensive-in-china/

ICYMI:
Tesla to open pre-orders for locally-made Model 3 in China on May 31
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-model-3-china-pre-order-release-date-gigafactory-3/
« Last Edit: May 31, 2019, 01:39:41 AM by Sigmetnow »
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GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2429 on: May 31, 2019, 02:06:24 AM »
Do you expect any EV from any manufacturer to outsell Model 3 Standard in China in 2020?

I expect Tesla to sell ZERO new cars in China in 2020. ZERO.
big time oops

GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2430 on: May 31, 2019, 02:10:34 AM »
Some believe Elon Musk (with a side of optimism), others feel he constantly lies. 

This is not up for debate. He lies constantly. If you genuinely challenge this fact, let me know and I will post dozens of major, significant, and obvious lies from the past year. No other public figure  challenges Musk in terms of # of major public lies (except maybe Trump).
big time oops

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2431 on: May 31, 2019, 08:04:19 AM »
ZERO.

Will you stop predicting Teslas fate if they sell one or more?

oren

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2432 on: May 31, 2019, 08:21:47 AM »
https://www.investing.com/news/technology-news/tesla-prices-chinamade-model-3-at-328000-yuan-1883775

Quote
Tesla Inc said on Friday it would price its China-made Model 3 vehicles from 328,000 yuan ($47,529), 13% cheaper than those it currently imports as it pushes sales in the fast growing market.

The carmaker has been building a factory in China since January where it its initial output will be Model 3 cars. Pre-orders for the vehicles will also start on Friday, the company said on its website.

The "standard range plus Model 3" is 49,000 yuan cheaper than China's current cheapest version, also standard range plus, even though it remains unclear whether the carmaker will qualify for China's subsidies for new energy vehicles.

The starting prices for five different versions of China-made Model 3s range from 328,000 to 522,000 yuan. Customers can expect to receive the car in 6-10 months, the company said in a press release.

It also said buyers will only need to put down a deposit of 20,000 yuan and that financing options on offer meant that monthly payment instalments will start from 1,100 yuan.

"The price drop is to make Tesla more accessible," it said.

The higher-end version of the Model 3 will still be imported from the United States.

Investors are focused on whether the gross profit margin on the Model 3 will remain around 20% in China.
I wouldn't be surprised if the price dropped further as the year progresses. In principle I would expect it by 2020 to converge towards the US price point of $40k, as I can't see why it would be costlier to manufacture in China compared to the US.

Edit: a quick look at Internet comments solved the mystery.
Quote
Similarly to Europe the prices in China include VAT. In China VAT is 13% so 47,500 it is only slightly higher than US price of 39900 (and likely reflects tariffs on imported parts).
« Last Edit: May 31, 2019, 08:37:57 AM by oren »

Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2433 on: May 31, 2019, 12:03:24 PM »
Quote
Tesla (@Tesla) 5/31/19, 12:56 AM
We *do not* want to alarm anyone, but Model 3 is now available to order in Australia, Hong Kong, Japan, New Zealand, Ireland and Macau at Tesla.com.
...
https://twitter.com/tesla/status/1134322753203388416
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2434 on: May 31, 2019, 05:56:00 PM »
ZERO.

Will you stop predicting Teslas fate if they sell one or more?

Should everyone who thought the $420 buyout was real never post again?
big time oops

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2435 on: May 31, 2019, 05:59:55 PM »
I take that as a no.

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2436 on: May 31, 2019, 06:33:02 PM »
This is not up for debate. He lies constantly. If you genuinely challenge this fact, let me know and I will post dozens of major, significant, and obvious lies from the past year. No other public figure  challenges Musk in terms of # of major public lies (except maybe Trump).

I'll genuinely challenge this "fact".

Does Elon Musk ever lies? 

Any person that tells me "I have never told a lie" is lying. That is not to say there aren't truthful people, there are. But lies in some way or the other are always there. Some are not intentional and we later regret, some of them well intended and some of them are actually good lies. ( at least in the eyes of the liar) .

But we are talking about malicious lies. That is, he knows of something that was not true and with ill intent said it anyway. I don't think he tells that type of lies.

He is guilty mostly of aiming very high and then failing to reach the goals in time. However he reaches hid goals one way or the other, within the best of his abilities.

Can I get that list now?

I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2437 on: May 31, 2019, 10:16:32 PM »
Do you expect any EV from any manufacturer to outsell Model 3 Standard in China in 2020?

I expect Tesla to sell ZERO new cars in China in 2020. ZERO.

Please post two articles that support your above assertion, and which:
1) Acknowledge that the Giga 3 building exists
2) Do not require Tesla to be bankrupt by the end of 2019 (since the recent capital raise is sufficient to run the company for 10 months).
3) Are not from Seeking Alpha.

Thanks.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2438 on: June 01, 2019, 04:21:06 PM »
Confessions Of A Twitter $TSLAQ Troll
https://cleantechnica.com/2019/05/31/confessions-of-a-twitter-tslaq-troll/

Good debunking of the recent CR Autopilot review:




The Media’s Story About Tesla Is Wrong, Facts Tell Another
https://cleantechnica.com/2019/05/31/the-media-is-telling-one-story-about-tesla-facts-tell-another/

Quote
Boersenmillionaer.de (@premiumbrief) 5/29/19, 2:49 PM
#tesla #norway just broke the may 2018 selling for modelx ! may 2018: 249  /  may 2019 (so far): 251! whats up #tslaq ?
https://twitter.com/premiumbrief/status/1133807598996787201

Chinese Tesla Model 3 Price Crushes BMW 3 Series & Mercedes C-Class Prices
https://cleantechnica.com/2019/05/31/tesla-model-3-china-price-crushes-bmw-3-series-mercedes-c-class/

Quote
I like this comment by a Chinese WeChat user on WeChat written after Tesla's M3 price release:
世界只有两种车:一种叫特斯拉,另一种叫其他。
"There are only 2 types of cars in the world: one is called Tesla and the other is called other"
Tesla’s China website gets overwhelmed due to Giga 3-made Model 3 pre-orders
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-china-website-crashes-model-3-pre-orders-gigafactory-3/
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2439 on: June 01, 2019, 07:27:13 PM »
I like this comment by a Chinese WeChat user on WeChat written after Tesla's M3 price release:
世界只有两种车:一种叫特斯拉,另一种叫其他。
"There are only 2 types of cars in the world: one is called Tesla and the other is called other"Tesla’s China website gets overwhelmed due to Giga 3-made Model 3 pre-orders
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-china-website-crashes-model-3-pre-orders-gigafactory-3/
TESLA underpriced the wheels. Not good as will not be able to satisfy expectations within a reasonable timespan.
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2440 on: June 02, 2019, 12:21:06 AM »
I like this comment by a Chinese WeChat user on WeChat written after Tesla's M3 price release:
世界只有两种车:一种叫特斯拉,另一种叫其他。
"There are only 2 types of cars in the world: one is called Tesla and the other is called other"Tesla’s China website gets overwhelmed due to Giga 3-made Model 3 pre-orders
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-china-website-crashes-model-3-pre-orders-gigafactory-3/
TESLA underpriced the wheels. Not good as will not be able to satisfy expectations within a reasonable timespan.

Have not heard about that being a problem.  Model 3 delivered to China have had a different wheel design than North American or European cars, since 2018.  If there is a shortage of another style, wheels can be switched out after the car arrives in China — or even after delivery, if necessary.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2441 on: June 03, 2019, 03:19:27 PM »
Tesla pickup truck’s starting price to be $49K at most, undercutting Rivian’s R1T
Quote
... the Rivian R1T is entering the market as a luxury adventure pickup truck, which could also suggest that the Silicon Valley-based electric car maker is going for another demographic with the Tesla Truck.

While Musk admits that the Tesla Truck will likely be polarizing for buyers in the way that its design might be futuristic for some people, he stated that the vehicle would have the functionalities of a truck, and more. Musk noted that Tesla’s goal for its pickup is to be better than a Ford F-150 in terms of functionality and better than a (Porsche) 911 in terms of sports car attributes. “It’s going to be a truck that’s more capable than other trucks,” Musk explained.

The CEO has previously mentioned that the Tesla Truck will not look out of place in the set of the sci-fi Blade Runner franchise, and he has also noted that the vehicle will be loaded to the teeth with tech. In a series of tweets last year, Musk noted that the Tesla pickup would have six seats, 400-500 miles of range per charge, dual motor AWD, a 240-volt connection for heavy-duty tools, and up to 300,000 pounds of towing capacity, to name a few. Nevertheless, considering the vehicle’s starting price, Tesla seems to be looking to release a version of the vehicle that is specifically aimed at customers that need functionality and utility. ...
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-pickup-truck-price-elon-musk/

Rivian’s luxury truck production volumes are likely to be much lower than a Tesla pickup truck.  Tesla may disrupt the truck market... the same way they are disrupting the ICE car market:
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2686.msg203021.html#msg203021
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2442 on: June 03, 2019, 03:56:23 PM »
the recent podcast interview of Elon talking about Tesla, China, the global EV market trends and pickup truck design can be found here.  https://teslapodcast.libsyn.com/
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2443 on: June 03, 2019, 07:02:27 PM »
it turns out that buying a Tesla is probably allowing other companies to pollute at a rate of 10X what you would have produced by buying an internal combustion vehicle.

or, if you are more of an optimist, the purchase of credits from Tesla is subsidizing the industry leader to achieve full market transformation while the 'big three' u.s. manufacturers play catch up in producing EV vehicles.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-06-03/tesla-s-secret-source-of-cash-unmasked-as-gm-and-fiat-chrysler

Quote
Tesla has generated almost $2 billion in revenue from selling regulatory credits since 2010. Its home state of California has a mandate that requires carmakers to sell zero-emission vehicles, or ZEVs, in proportion to their share of the state’s auto market, which is the largest in the country.

If manufacturers don’t sell enough non-polluting vehicles, they have to purchase credits from competitors like Tesla to make up the difference. A similar credit system is administered at the federal level by the EPA and National Highway Traffic Safety Administration.
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2444 on: June 03, 2019, 09:33:45 PM »
it turns out that buying a Tesla is probably allowing other companies to pollute at a rate of 10X what you would have produced by buying an internal combustion vehicle.

or, if you are more of an optimist, the purchase of credits from Tesla is subsidizing the industry leader to achieve full market transformation while the 'big three' u.s. manufacturers play catch up in producing EV vehicles.
...

”The deal with GM will come as a surprise to those who thought years of sales of plug-in hybrid Chevrolet Volts and all-electric Chevy Bolts would leave the largest U.S. automaker in the clear with regard to regulatory compliance. But while sales of those models have put GM in a position where it doesn’t need extra credits today, demand for its battery-powered vehicles are dwarfed by its gas-guzzling trucks and SUVs.”

Imagine what the demand for GM and Fiat-Chrysler EVs would be if they offered one as exceptional as a Tesla? 
But OEMs can’t do that, because: they don’t have the tech, they don’t have the batteries, and they don’t want to kill their cash-cow trucks and SUVs.  Don’t blame Tesla buyers; Tesla opened their patents for anyone to use.  Blame the government for giving OEM’s an all-too-easy way to keep polluting.

All Our Patent Are Belong To You
https://www.tesla.com/blog/all-our-patent-are-belong-you
(The crippled English in the title is a riff on a badly translated Japanese video game.)
« Last Edit: June 03, 2019, 09:39:49 PM by Sigmetnow »
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2445 on: June 03, 2019, 11:10:47 PM »
$TSLA broke support at $188 (from January 2015), next stop could be the $150 support level (from October 2013). If it breaks that the next level is $38! (from January 2013). Feels a lot like Nortel or Blackberry during their crashes - a round trip to the starting valuation or less.

There is an increasing gap with the moving average, and quite oversold, so it could still bounce (test $188 from below before turning south again?). Then again, I have seen stocks stay oversold and just keep going down. The overall market is looking very soft, so not helping.

The media flow has also gone from unquestioning worship of Musk to extremely negative and questioning, the drop into the "hype cycle" trough of disillusionment.

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2446 on: June 03, 2019, 11:27:43 PM »
While the stock could go anywhere, I don't think Tesla's business has cratered. With decent sales and new capital in the bank I think it could return to profitability this year, and possibly make headway with GF3 and with Model Y next year. In any case, we'll be smarter in a month with the Q2 delivery data, signalling glory or failure.
Disclosure: I finally picked up a small long position today (via options), as I also sense oversold conditions.

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2447 on: June 03, 2019, 11:43:09 PM »
I am tending towards the "they are f**ked" analytical viewpoint. Their (and Musk's) reputation is now in tatters and the FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) brigade is rapidly being replaced with the FOLS (Fear of Looking Stupid) brigade. Nobody wants to be that guy that bought a DeLorean, or the company's stock (unless short-term speculation), when you can sign up for the EV Porsche, etc...


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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2448 on: June 04, 2019, 12:37:44 AM »
It is indeed like the times of blackberry, except that Tesla's fundamentals are solid.  They have cash, they have amazing products that are selling very well and they have future growth opportunities that no other company has. If these are the times of blackberry, Tesla is apple.

Sure the coming market meltdown will put things on hold for a bit but Tesla has been expecting this for a while.  Tesla is not going anywhere. The EV revolution can't be stopped by anything short of a war or a BOE.
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2449 on: June 04, 2019, 02:03:07 AM »
Tesla's fundamentals are solid

Fundamentals are solid.......

Musk's email to Employees dated May 16 2019
Quote
That is a lot of money, but actually only gives us approximately ten months at the first-quarter burn rate to achieve breakeven. It's vital that we respect the faith investors have shown in Tesla, but it will require great effort to do so.

That is why, going forward, all expenses of any kind anywhere in the world, including parts, salary, travel expenses, rent, literally every payment that leaves our bank account must be reviewed, confirmed as critical and the top of every page of outgoing payments signed by our CFO.

I will personally review and sign every 10th page.

Please examine closely every expense where responsibility is, or probably should be, assigned to your group. If in doubt, assume it is on your plate, so that we don't have anything slip through the cracks.

This will take at least a few weeks to get right. Please don't worry if it isn't correct at first.

This is hardcore, but it is the only way for Tesla to become financially sustainable and succeed in our goal of helping make the world environmentally sustainable.

Thanks again for your excellent work,

Elon