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be cause

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2450 on: June 04, 2019, 02:40:54 AM »
 .. a BOE ? :)  b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 
 (phew)

GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2451 on: June 04, 2019, 02:46:30 AM »
Tesla's fundamentals are solid.

There is no point to this conversation with opinions like this.
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Archimid

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2452 on: June 04, 2019, 02:57:24 AM »
Sorry, but they are. They have plenty of cash in hand, a great, profitable product and a brand new market the size of the ICE vehicle market.

As I said at the very beginning of this thread, the share price doesn't matter anymore. What matters is the product. As far as I'm concerned I increased my position by 22% and looking for any free cash to further increase that position during this dip.

Worst thing that can happen to my shares would be Tesla going private and forcing me to sell low, but on the flip side, Tesla private would be much more nimble and their mission cemented. The EV revolution would likely accelerate. That is my final goal too, so I'll be happy.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2453 on: June 04, 2019, 03:09:38 AM »
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2454 on: June 04, 2019, 03:34:50 PM »
Free Cash Flow is the most basic fundamental. Does the company create value, or destroy it?

Tesla's average quarterly free cash flow over the past 5 years: NEGATIVE $500M

You can't burn $2 billion a year and have strong fundamentals.


The only time Tesla has ever made a profit is in the quarter (or 2 quarters) following a new model release.

There are not really any new models in the pipeline either...

The Semi is a fake. It was announced over a year and a half ago, but nothing has happened. I think they were supposed to be in production already but there is no point in buying equipment to build something that won't work until battery tech improves A LOT.

The new Roadster isn't real either. At least not the hovercraft version. I am quite sure Tesla can make a very attractive and absurdly fast car and sell a few thousand for a quarter million dollars. But this cannot be scaled as is not really significant.

Finally, the Model Y. Which is really just a model 3 with a slightly sorta different shape. It is supposed to begin production in late 2020. Lets be kind and call it 2021.


By the time Tesla has anything new out (if that ever happens), there will be dozens of other similar offerings from competing companies. I doubt there is ever another profitable quarter. But even if the same pattern could continue uninterrupted...the loses drastically outweigh the profits.

Strong fundamentals? Give me a break.
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BeeKnees

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2455 on: June 04, 2019, 04:27:51 PM »
GSY, did you forget the pick up or are you assuming it's too far off to be of note?

Do you see the Y being a model 3 with a different body shape being an issue?  Seems the norm for most manufacturers to have a platform they use across several models. 

Archimid

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2456 on: June 04, 2019, 06:42:09 PM »
Was Tesla “burning cash” or were they building factories, supercharger networks and amazing software?


About new models being fake, I’ll file that in the same place as “Tesla Bankrupt by March” and “Tesla loses money in every car they sell”

Tesla’s growth is barely beginning. It is just a matter of the vehicle being seen and driven by as many people as possible. EV competition will help break the stigma.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2457 on: June 04, 2019, 07:28:14 PM »
And despite the US federal incentive cutback!  May 2019 US Tesla deliveries.
Quote
Vladimir Grinshpun (@VGrinshpun) 6/4/19, 12:06 PM
After exhausting US reservations, M3 deliveries in US grew by 96% over the comparable Q1 period, destroying "demand cliff" fallacy

MX and MS deliveries grew by 44.8% and 37% over the comparable Q1 period.

Organic demand goes viral - driven by deliveries of M3
https://twitter.com/vgrinshpun/status/1135940980501360640
Image below
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magnamentis

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2458 on: June 04, 2019, 07:38:12 PM »
Was Tesla “burning cash” or were they building factories, supercharger networks and amazing software?


About new models being fake, I’ll file that in the same place as “Tesla Bankrupt by March” and “Tesla loses money in every car they sell”

Tesla’s growth is barely beginning. It is just a matter of the vehicle being seen and driven by as many people as possible. EV competition will help break the stigma.

yes they were and are burning cash, who would seriously question that.

as it became typical for you, you question a fact with word play either on purpose or based on ignorance.

burning cash is a term that is not directly related with what the cash was burnt for while what you mean is that the cash was not thrown out of the window but invested in production plants and development. either way, if those investments never return a profit the cash remains burnt.

also the cash was in it's majority not embezzled, at least there is no reason to make such claims, nevertheless to build a factory to produce cars at a loss is burning cash indeed, you can ask every accountant or other economist whether this is true or not.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2459 on: June 04, 2019, 07:54:43 PM »
Let’s compare.
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b_lumenkraft

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2460 on: June 04, 2019, 07:58:23 PM »
Any company has liabilities like that. It's for tax reasons and whatnot.

Thanks for sharing this Sigmetnow.

GSY what do you say to that.

SteveMDFP

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2461 on: June 04, 2019, 08:00:16 PM »
Was Tesla “burning cash” or were they building factories, supercharger networks and amazing software?

Tesla’s growth is barely beginning. It is just a matter of the vehicle being seen and driven by as many people as possible. EV competition will help break the stigma.

I'd tend to agree.  The case of Amazon may be an analogy for Tesla's financial history and prospects.  In that case,

"For a sense of scale, it took Amazon more than 14 years—58 quarters after its May 1997 initial public offering—to make, cumulatively, as much profit as it produced in the latest quarter alone."

https://qz.com/1196256/it-took-amazon-amzn-14-years-to-make-as-much-net-profit-as-it-did-in-the-fourth-quarter-of-2017/



Personally, I wish I'd invested my pocket change in Amazon back when it was chronically generating years and years of losses.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2462 on: June 04, 2019, 08:53:18 PM »
Quote
Vladimir Grinshpun (@VGrinshpun) 6/4/19, 5:27 AM
Consumers globally stubbornly choose vehicles from the company which is well known by the media and certain analysts to not have any technological advantages.
Whatsoever.

https://twitter.com/vgrinshpun/status/1135840427968532480

Alex (@alex_avoigt) 6/3/19, 2:59 PM
Global BEV Registrations Jan - April
https://twitter.com/alex_avoigt/status/1135622101912694785
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2463 on: June 04, 2019, 09:01:19 PM »
Quote
john ford (@swampgator13) 6/4/19, 10:58 AM
Breaking news. @Tesla sells more model 3s in the US than ALL BMW cars combined.
13950 vs 13566
https://twitter.com/swampgator13/status/1135923781619163136

Doesn’t even include Model S/X sales.  No demand for BMW, apparently....
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2464 on: June 04, 2019, 09:29:57 PM »
Tesla (TSLA) stock is starting to resemble Netflix before its massive rally in 2011
Quote
“Rumor swirling that a big activist has taken a stake in Tesla $TSLA and he/she said it reminds them of $NFLX in 2011. Explains the almost $3 million of $TSLA Aug $250 calls swept right at the open. Could it be Icahn!” he wrote, referring to billionaire investor Carl Celian Icahn.

As of writing, Tesla stock is trading at 5.20% at $188.42 per share.
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-tsla-resembles-netflix-in-2011/
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oren

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2465 on: June 04, 2019, 09:32:02 PM »
The truth is somewhere in the middle. Tesla's financials are not great, following the disastrous Q1 and the history of difficulty in maintaining profits, plus the pressure on Wall St. preventing further capital injections. Had Tesla not changed its stance and raised the most recent $2.5B round, it could have been on the road to hell right now.
OTOH Tesla's products, existing and announced ones, are not fake and could have significant demand. It's just not clear if the demand and its rate of conversion to orders will be sufficient to support profitable operations, given high fixed costs, and considering the timelines for new products coming to market. The only product that I feel may not materialize is the full autonomy, not fake, but it could yet fail. It's an extremely difficult engineering problem.
The short-term challenge is surviving on mostly a single product (Model 3, with a bit of S/X and storage batteries thrown in) until the new major products (Y, Semi) arrive towards the end of 2020. The big test lies in the quarterly results, especially the make-or-break Q2. No use mincing words until these come out - early July for deliveries and early August for financials.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2466 on: June 04, 2019, 10:04:26 PM »
...
The short-term challenge is surviving on mostly a single product (Model 3, with a bit of S/X and storage batteries thrown in) until the new major products (Y, Semi) arrive towards the end of 2020. The big test lies in the quarterly results, especially the make-or-break Q2. No use mincing words until these come out - early July for deliveries and early August for financials.

But keep in mind, that “single product” is the top-selling product in its class, in the world!  And Tesla has just opened the market in more countries (and additional APAC countries will be opened once Giga 3 is on-line).  Also, Tesla says 2019 will be the year battery storage and the Tesla solar roof ramp up, now that testing has been completed and battery supplies are adequate.

Edit:
Other short-term levers:  China is offering 3-yr zero interest finance to incentivize consumers for Long Range Model 3 (built only in US) in June. Prior, the promotion was free FSD (till June 1) which was said to drive sales in May.

Quote
Vincent (@vincent13031925) 6/4/19, 9:05 AM
Today, a customer who came to the Tesla booth to order a car: “After compared with others. I thought, why not choose this industry leader directly? Also the Model 3 LR AWD I ordered can enjoy a 3yrs 0%financial plan!” 2019 Shenzhen-Hong Kong-Macao International Auto Show
https://twitter.com/vincent13031925/status/1135895450786025473
Images of happy customers at the link. ;)
« Last Edit: June 04, 2019, 10:20:37 PM by Sigmetnow »
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zizek

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2467 on: June 05, 2019, 12:27:11 AM »
Oh my goodness. Am I taking crazy pills? Why do we have to relitigate the specifics of Tesla's "fundamentals" over and over again... When Musk has literally said himself that they're months away from bankruptcy. 
I must be taking crazy pills...

Archimid, please explain to me what you would consider bad fundamentals. Considering you think a company with a CEO admitting they're tetering on bankruptcy to have "good fundamentals"


Tesla's fundamentals are solid

Fundamentals are solid.......

Musk's email to Employees dated May 16 2019
Quote
That is a lot of money, but actually only gives us approximately ten months at the first-quarter burn rate to achieve breakeven. It's vital that we respect the faith investors have shown in Tesla, but it will require great effort to do so.

That is why, going forward, all expenses of any kind anywhere in the world, including parts, salary, travel expenses, rent, literally every payment that leaves our bank account must be reviewed, confirmed as critical and the top of every page of outgoing payments signed by our CFO.

I will personally review and sign every 10th page.

Please examine closely every expense where responsibility is, or probably should be, assigned to your group. If in doubt, assume it is on your plate, so that we don't have anything slip through the cracks.

This will take at least a few weeks to get right. Please don't worry if it isn't correct at first.

This is hardcore, but it is the only way for Tesla to become financially sustainable and succeed in our goal of helping make the world environmentally sustainable.

Thanks again for your excellent work,

Elon

crandles

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2468 on: June 05, 2019, 01:51:22 AM »
Was Tesla “burning cash” or were they building factories, supercharger networks and amazing software?

Anything spent on building factories and supercharger networks would be capitalised so you cannot attribute the large Q1 loss to that. Possibly also applies to software development?

Nor can you attribute it to debt repayment.

Tesla fans do seem to just want to believe all sorts of explanations that are not really adequate/valid explanations.

Large loss apparently will remain even if you increase car sales 50% (as guided for q2) with the same gross margins and expenses. But maybe q2 will be better than such adjustments suggest because of fixing other problems, expense cost cutting and so on. Seems like they need rather huge cost cutting and if this materialises I may wonder if they have just delayed expenses rather than actually cutting them. (Just 2 top people having to authorise all spending sounds like recipe for delay to me.)

Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2469 on: June 05, 2019, 03:08:29 AM »
Quote
Vincent (@vincent13031925) 6/4/19, 12:33 PM
Spoke with my sources in China, after the Made in [China] Model 3 pricing announcement on May 31, most of the Tesla stores in China have seeing dramatic numbers increase of visitors.
https://twitter.com/vincent13031925/status/1135947691081388032
- When number of visitors [increase] sales will [increase]. Base on my understanding, buyers are now more interesting in [Made In US] version since there is only very little of the price differences.
< It's a good strategy for @Tesla to announce the pricing. It attracted much attention. Now many people realize buying imported versions is really not bad. Brilliant move!

Tesla Gigafactory 3’s latest developments hint at full speed interior work
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-gigafactory-3-china-full-speed-interior-work/
New video in the article begins with a few shots showing progress from January to now.

TESLA KILLERS, May 2019 update.
https://twitter.com/teslahistorian/status/1135935375246016518
Chart below.
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jai mitchell

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2470 on: June 05, 2019, 07:43:10 AM »
FYI

by 2025 Tesla will have NO COBALT in their batteries.

https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-model-3-batteries-cobalt-volkswagen/

Tesla Model 3 batteries have 75% less cobalt than Volkswagen’s current cells


Quote
Tesla has succeeded in reducing the cobalt content of the Model 3’s batteries to just 2.8% as of last year. Tesla has continued its battery research since then, hinting at even lower cobalt levels in the present iterations of its electric sedan.
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b_lumenkraft

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2471 on: June 05, 2019, 08:00:27 AM »
Yet Tesla has Cobalt supplier while VW hasn't.

I wonder how this will go down. ::)

GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2472 on: June 05, 2019, 02:33:19 PM »
Any company has liabilities like that. It's for tax reasons and whatnot.

Thanks for sharing this Sigmetnow.

GSY what do you say to that.

If you don't understand the difference between cash flow and liabilities...I have nothing to say.

Tax reasons and whatnot.
big time oops

GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2473 on: June 05, 2019, 02:51:18 PM »
OTOH Tesla's products, existing and announced ones, are not fake and could have significant demand. It's just not clear if the demand and its rate of conversion to orders will be sufficient to support profitable operations, given high fixed costs, and considering the timelines for new products coming to market. The only product that I feel may not materialize is the full autonomy, not fake, but it could yet fail. It's an extremely difficult engineering problem.
The short-term challenge is surviving on mostly a single product (Model 3, with a bit of S/X and storage batteries thrown in) until the new major products (Y, Semi) arrive towards the end of 2020.

They literally are fake. The Semi is a lie. If it wasn't why haven't they started building them yet?

The Roadster as a hovercraft...absurdly fake.

The pickup truck's 300,000 lb towing capability, fakest of all.

FSD is dangerously fake.

Solar roof tile, fake.

Alien Dreadnaught, fake.


This is just Musk's style. He promises the coolest and most innovative products ever and people get excited cuz they are naive.

SpaceX's 60 satelites, fake.

SpaceX's Starship Hopper, fake.

SpaceX's 10 times launchable rocket, fake.

NeuralLink's cyborg tech, fake.

Boring Company's Prufrock supertunner, fake.


It is a post truth world we are living in. Non smart people on both sides of the spectrum worship their twitter leader, be it Trump or Musk. Meanwhile smart people can't really do anything or say anything that hasn't already been said to no avail. It's a world gone mad. I'm starting to think a BOE to wipe things clean might be overdue.



big time oops

crandles

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2474 on: June 05, 2019, 03:06:14 PM »
I don't understand why the tesla fans post such rubbish as to say they believe Musk (even things like still believing funding secured was true).

Why not adopt a defence more like:

Musk is a showman. Speaking of a showmen, do we care if Barnum had zero evidence appropriate to calling Jumbo the largest elephant that ever lived?

What do you mean by things like
Quote
SpaceX's 60 satelites, fake

There is data showing their orbit characteristics,


There are photos of a train of satellites:
https://twitter.com/cgbassa/status/1133831192074231808
https://twitter.com/marco_langbroek/status/1132064132390379520

Do you mean the satellites don't exist or something else like they are only test models not ready to sell services now or ever (but future versions are likely to be operational)?
« Last Edit: June 05, 2019, 03:12:51 PM by crandles »

b_lumenkraft

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2475 on: June 05, 2019, 03:13:21 PM »
I have nothing to say.


Could you answer the question, please?

Why are you seeing tesla doomed and not the other carmaker in the graph Sigmetnow provided?

oren

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2476 on: June 05, 2019, 04:01:14 PM »
They literally are fake. The Semi is a lie. If it wasn't why haven't they started building them yet?

The Roadster as a hovercraft...absurdly fake.
The pickup truck's 300,000 lb towing capability, fakest of all.
FSD is dangerously fake.
Solar roof tile, fake.
Alien Dreadnaught, fake.

This is just Musk's style. He promises the coolest and most innovative products ever and people get excited cuz they are naive.

SpaceX's 60 satelites, fake.
SpaceX's Starship Hopper, fake.
SpaceX's 10 times launchable rocket, fake.
NeuralLink's cyborg tech, fake.
Boring Company's Prufrock supertunner, fake.

It is a post truth world we are living in.
I was about to commend you for your new fact-based and to the point posting style in this thread, and then this post came along. You have a hard time being objective when it comes to Elon Musk, while blaming others of the same issue.

Not all of Elon's off-hand comments and promises turn out to be true. He is both a showman and a dreamer (and an occasional liar). But to go from that and to claim everything is fake, that's really a post-truth world. Unjustified.

"The Semi is a lie. If it wasn't why haven't they started building them yet?" - It was planned for 2019 and will probably go for 2020. Things take time, and I also believe Tesla is short on total battery production capacity. But to claim it's a lie you need more than rhetoric.

The pickup truck's 300,000 lb towing capability, fakest of all. - I tend to agree. But it's something that was mentioned when the Pickup was a dream, and now that it's approaching a reveal this number was not mentioned again by Tesla/Elon. (Though it was mentioned in an article by Electrek as if it's still valid). When you design something new you can freely dream up ideas, but when a design approaches completion you have to give up all unimportant things that don't fit within your other constraints - time, money, engineering and all that.

FSD is dangerously fake. - Dangerous yes, could fail in development before it reach full autonomy yes, but not fake. Thousands of people are using Tesla's autonomous driving as a driver assist system every day, it's not just demo videos made by Tesla.
Solar roof tile, fake. - This one is quite possibly fake, and brought up as an excuse for the horrendous SolarCity acquisition. We'll know for certain in a year or two.

Alien Dreadnaught, fake. - Tesla uses more automation than other carmakers, but less automation than Elon fantasized. They paid lots of money and lost time during the ramp-up dialing back this particular fantasy. But he really did mean it at the time.

SpaceX's 60 satelites, fake. - This one is seriously funny as they pass overhead. See Crandles' response.
SpaceX's Starship Hopper, fake. - It's still under development. But SpaceX did many things they said they would do, so just claiming a fake with no reason is bogus.
SpaceX's 10 times launchable rocket, fake. - Considering they have re-used boosters many times now (although haven't reached 10 yet AFAIK), this is another bogus claim.
NeuralLink's cyborg tech, fake. - I honestly have no idea. I suspect that neither do you.
Boring Company's Prufrock supertunner, fake. - I suspect you are wrong, but it still requires proof.

oren

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2477 on: June 05, 2019, 04:38:11 PM »
Perma-bear Anton Wahlman has updated his forecast for Q2 (he usually starts low and then raises as data comes in).

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4268211-may-sales-mostly-tesla-80000-units-within-sight-q2

Quote
May Sales Are In (Mostly): Tesla Has 80,000 Units Within Sight For Q2

Summary
We now have most countries reporting May month unit sales. Tesla’s sales were likely more than 24,000 for May, up from 20,000 in April.

My model now has June at almost 36,000 for an 80,000 total for Q2. That’s below management’s guidance of 90,000 to 100,000.

However, it’s up from my previous estimate, as well as the 63,019 sold in Q1. So, 80,000 is neither good nor the worst-case scenario either.

The problem here will be in margins: Did Tesla’s many price cuts and discounts mean profits were much lower, in order to achieve a 80,000 units sales number for Q2?

If so, it would once again prove that Tesla can move units - but only in exchange for a very weak bottom line.

...

80,126 units sold in Q2 would be up 27% from the March quarter, but still down 12% from the 90,966 sold in the December quarter. Basically, it would be a “stabilized” scenario if you could call it that.

We'll soon know the real number. Personally I think 80k units will not be a stabilization but a failure.

Q2 forecasts (90k-100k guidance):
Andreas Hopf - 64,000 M3, 16,000 S/X, 80,000 Total
Anton Wahlman (May 17th) - 61,750 M3, 12,250 S/X, 74,000 Total
Adam Jonas - 82,000 Total
Troy Teslike - 74,000 Total
Anton Wahlman (June 4th) - 66,720 M3, 13,400 S/X, 80,120 Total

Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2478 on: June 05, 2019, 05:00:59 PM »
A Model X has already towed over 287,000 pounds, so....

People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2479 on: June 05, 2019, 10:16:27 PM »
Tesla stock up sharply yesterday, and another 1.5% today, closing at $196.59
Quote
Quote
Will Meade (@realwillmeade) 6/4/19, 1:02 PM
Tesla $TSLA the biggest mover in the large cap space today on rumors of an activist initiating a position....
https://twitter.com/realwillmeade/status/1135954869850968064
Quote
Will Meade (@realwillmeade) 6/4/19, 2:07 PM
Bad news for $TSLA $TSLAQ bears an almost $800,000 call option trade in Tesla July $195 calls.
I’ve been doing this a long time and when you see repeat size buys at multiple strikes, big news is coming.
https://twitter.com/realwillmeade/status/1135971431068647427
Quote
Will Meade (@realwillmeade) 6/5/19, 11:45 AM
Another big trade in Tesla Calls $1.7 million in the July $240 calls.
https://twitter.com/realwillmeade/status/1136297993672507392

———
Quote
Steve Jobs (@tesla_truth) 6/5/19, 12:42 PM
What is the transportation revolution?
Like the PC revolution, the internet revolution, and the smartphone revolution, it’s a set of changes that will fundamentally transform the global economy.

Three parts to it:
1. Electrification
2. Autonomy
3. Ridesharing

$TSLA on all 3
https://twitter.com/tesla_truth/status/1136312246617878529
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Archimid

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2480 on: June 05, 2019, 11:05:59 PM »

Anything spent on building factories and supercharger networks would be capitalised so you cannot attribute the large Q1 loss to that. Possibly also applies to software development?

Nor can you attribute it to debt repayment.


Two examples.

To service and sell 500 cars a year you need stores, employees and service centers. Creating that infrastructure requires capital expenditure that is amortized.  The problem is that you can't simply build that infrastructure instantly. It takes time to build and after it is built it has cost.  If you have the infrastructure to support 500k cars a year but you are not yet selling 500k cars a year, that will show as losses.

Another example, R&D. Tesla does many things under R&D that other automakers do as capital expenditures. It had a high cost but the reward is super advanced cars.

I believe AP development runs under R&D. I'm not sure about the HW3 chip.
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zizek

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2481 on: June 05, 2019, 11:46:41 PM »
I did the napkin math. Before accounting for inefficiencies, wind drag, frictional resistance, or even pulling the car itself.... (it would be safe to consider total losses to be at least 50%, but we don't need to even bother...)

136,000 kg towing capacity.

To get to 100km/h in 60 seconds.. Which is extremely slow.

time to 100km/h = 60 s
acceleration = 0.46 m/s^2
total distance covered = 840 m

Force required = 62560 N
Total energy required till final speed = 52550.4 kJ


In a perfect ideal situation.... We would need:

875 kW sustained for 60 seconds would call for 2200 amps at 400V. Insane.
And use 15% of a 100kWh battery.... That's in 60 seconds folks.


All for less than $50,000 american dollarydoos!

--------

Musk doesn't actually know what towing capacity is. There is a big difference between a vehicle's torque and the weight it can safely tow.





crandles

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2482 on: June 06, 2019, 12:17:03 AM »


To service and sell 500 cars a year you need stores, employees and service centers. Creating that infrastructure requires capital expenditure that is amortized.  The problem is that you can't simply build that infrastructure instantly. It takes time to build and after it is built it has cost.  If you have the infrastructure to support 500k cars a year but you are not yet selling 500k cars a year, that will show as losses.

Another example, R&D. Tesla does many things under R&D that other automakers do as capital expenditures. It had a high cost but the reward is super advanced cars.

I believe AP development runs under R&D. I'm not sure about the HW3 chip.

I would accept that depreciation is highly likely to be charged at full rate during a ramp up phase and therefore this is valid if you are talking about Q2 2018. Currently, well maybe a small fraction of the depreciation can be attributed to this and thus some of the Q1 loss can be explained away in this manner. Depreciation isn't a cash item so there is a bit of a problem if we are talking about cash burn, but I brought in attribution to explain away Q1 loss so I'll give you some of that but it looks like a bit of a sliver of the loss.

R&D if expensed yes but then I don't think I really disputed that. It was the 'building factories and supercharger networks' part of your sentence that I picked out.

R&D is great if you can bring it to fruition and profitably use it. No huge reason to think SpaceX doesn't have the necessary time. The cash burn is hopefully substantially less with significant car sales growth so the cash pile will last longer than the ten months Musk quoted which was intended to be motivational not indicating Tesla would actually go bankrupt. Hopefully that allows enough time to bring other products to cash generation phase.

GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2483 on: June 06, 2019, 04:17:14 AM »
A Model X has already towed over 287,000 pounds, so....


hmmm. This guy must have 378,000 towing capacity. Muskian talk. Total nonsense.





What do you think the brakes necessary for a road approved 3,000,000 lb towing vehicle would be??? Oh, did I put an extra 0 in there...who cares, it is a totally made up number anyways. I understand that simpletons buy into this nonsense, but I would have liked to have thought that when they come across a place a knowledge (like a forum), they are able to drop their childish beliefs. Apparently not. Musk will fly us all to Mars, through a tunnel, on green fuel, harvested from a roof tile, on fully autonomous mode. And we will transform the land and the atmosphere and it will be easy.
big time oops

Archimid

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2484 on: June 06, 2019, 04:26:15 AM »
.
Quote
Musk will fly us all to Mars, through a tunnel, on green fuel, harvested from a roof tile, on fully autonomous mode. And we will transform the land and the atmosphere and it will be easy.

It will not be easy.
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b_lumenkraft

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2485 on: June 06, 2019, 05:28:50 AM »
Hey GoSouthYoungins,

you never answered my question:

Could you answer the question, please?

Why are you seeing tesla doomed and not the other carmaker in the graph Sigmetnow provided?

GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2486 on: June 06, 2019, 07:05:57 AM »
I have nothing to say.


Could you answer the question, please?

Why are you seeing tesla doomed and not the other carmaker in the graph Sigmetnow provided?

I save those comments for the VW glory/failure thread. Duh.


But fine. Fine. I'll answer this ridiculous assertion that Tesla is no different than other auto maker (specifically VW, BMW, and Diamler)...

All 3 of the other companies made money last year. And the year before. And the year before. (I have no idea where those charts from Sig come from...look up the numbers yourself).

Meanwhile, Tesla lost money every year. If you add up all 3 years, the other autos made $77 Billion in net income. Vs Tesla's LOSS of $3.5 Billion.

But don't worry, Tesla is losing money at an even quicker rate this year. So I'm sure the fundamentals are solid. Or mixed. Or whatever you want them to be.
« Last Edit: June 06, 2019, 07:15:27 AM by GoSouthYoungins »
big time oops

GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2487 on: June 06, 2019, 07:14:46 AM »
.
Quote
Musk will fly us all to Mars, through a tunnel, on green fuel, harvested from a roof tile, on fully autonomous mode. And we will transform the land and the atmosphere and it will be easy.

It will not be easy.

Don't tell your hero. He says living therbe will e the easy part. And that there is a 70% chance he will move to Mars. I'm sure now that his cyborg tech was released 3 months ago it will change the whole dynamic. And once we have the battery tech necessary to enable the Semi to function, Mars life will be more realistic. We can live in tunnels, dug super cheap. And use the bricks from the tunneling to build surface structures. With solar roof tiles on top to power the fully self driving vehicles.

And of course the plan requires nuking the entire planet. This Musk guy seems legit. Not like an maniacal drug-addict cult-leading sociopath. Not at all.

big time oops

b_lumenkraft

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2488 on: June 06, 2019, 07:44:27 AM »
All 3 of the other companies made money last year. And the year before. And the year before.

As you might know, VW just announced to finally build a (very tiny) gigafactory. They are about to invest 44 Billion. Do you expect them to 'make money' still?

Quote
Meanwhile, Tesla lost money every year.

Yes, because they already did the necessary investments VW and others are still facing.

Quote
If you don't understand the difference between cash flow and liabilities..

I actually went to business school. Did you?

GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2489 on: June 06, 2019, 03:57:21 PM »

As you might know, VW just announced to finally build a (very tiny) gigafactory. They are about to invest 44 Billion. Do you expect them to 'make money' still?


Doesn't VW know that is cooler to build HUGE gigafactory, but only fill it up 1/3 of the way, Tesla-style.

Anyways,  $44B in CapEx won't change the income statement. That's not how it works. So yes, they would still make money. (The entire global auto sector is about to enter a recession and thus profits are unlikely, but building a factory has nothing to do with it.)

https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/112814/does-capital-expenditure-capex-immediately-affect-income-statements.asp

To cite an example, if a flower shop owner purchases a delivery van for $30,000, that vehicle is recorded as an asset on the balance sheet that same year, but that year’s income statement remains unaffected by the purchase.


Yes, because they already did the necessary investments VW and others are still facing.


Nice idea, but totally wrong. VW spent $56B on CapEx during the last 3 years, while Tesla spent a little less $8B.


I actually went to business school. Did you?


I hope they didn't charge you. If they did, you should ask for your money back. Maybe you, Sig, Arch, and Neil all went to the same B school and can get together on a class action lawsuit. Hope your legal savvy exceeds your business knowledge.
big time oops

Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2490 on: June 06, 2019, 04:28:21 PM »
...
All 3 of the other companies made money last year. And the year before. And the year before. (I have no idea where those charts from Sig come from...look up the numbers yourself).

Meanwhile, Tesla lost money every year. If you add up all 3 years, the other autos made $77 Billion in net income. Vs Tesla's LOSS of $3.5 Billion.
...

So you are now saying that your above post about Free Cash Flow was merely a rant, because FCF really doesn’t matter.  And that despite your constant claims to know more about corporate finance than anyone else here, you do not have such information at your fingertips.  Thanks for clarifying.

https://ycharts.com/companies/VWAGY/free_cash_flow
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jai mitchell

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2492 on: June 06, 2019, 05:53:46 PM »
I am moving my guidance from 'buy' to 'mortgage your house and buy tsla right now"!!!

in a few months we will be back up to $400 and it is going to $2400 by 2030.

Since I posted my guidance on TSLA its stock has risen 19%.  Didn't realize I had so much pull on Wall St.   ;D
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gerontocrat

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2493 on: June 06, 2019, 06:55:03 PM »
In one month we get Qu2 sales, and soon after Q2 finance statements.
Methinks they matter, as does progress in China and Europe.

The share price fluctuations matter much less to me since I have not a cent in any shares, and as regards TESLA seeming to be much more driven by rumour, speculation and would be market makers.

ps Electrek say their US sales are doing well this quarter. We will see.
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rboyd

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2494 on: June 06, 2019, 07:27:19 PM »
I am moving my guidance from 'buy' to 'mortgage your house and buy tsla right now"!!!

in a few months we will be back up to $400 and it is going to $2400 by 2030.

Since I posted my guidance on TSLA its stock has risen 19%.  Didn't realize I had so much pull on Wall St.   ;D

Classic bounce back toward its moving average (at $240) after very oversold readings, if it doesn't break that the downtrend will resume very quickly - and new lows.

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2495 on: June 06, 2019, 07:48:59 PM »
Tesla Director Antonio Gracias Has Now Dumped Almost All Of His Personal Stock

One less seller ....

Quote
Despite no real formal updated delivery guidance for Q2 and yesterday's conveniently leaked article to electrek claiming "new record 'sales numbers'", Tesla board member and long time friend of Elon Musk, Antonio Gracias, hasn't stopped spraying the open market with his personal stock holdings.

A Form 4 filed on 6/5/2019 shows that Gracias again blew out stock between $177.70 and $185.70 after exercising options. As some noted, this Form 4 says that Gracias now has just 466 shares left personally, and that his remaining shares are held in funds.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-06-06/tesla-director-antonio-gracias-has-now-dumped-almost-all-his-personal-stock

magnamentis

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2496 on: June 06, 2019, 09:08:04 PM »
Hey GoSouthYoungins,

you never answered my question:

Could you answer the question, please?

Why are you seeing tesla doomed and not the other carmaker in the graph Sigmetnow provided?

because all of the other car makers have assets that cover their depts by far and cashflow alone is far from being a "to be or not to be" thingy.


rboyd

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2497 on: June 06, 2019, 09:35:27 PM »
Germany would not allow their car manufacturers to go bust, too great an economic loss for the country. It may become educational how fast Germany will forget about "European Competition Rules" when required. Porsche/VW seem to be moving relatively fast now into the EV area, with Mercedes following and BMW further behind. Given the share of BMW sales that are to China (40%+) this looks especially short-sighted. I own a BMW, but my next car will be an EV and quite possibly not a BMW.

Many of the car makers will go bust/be rescued etc., as EV adoption really takes off. After the 2008 rescue (and the 1980s one after the Japanese market share gains) the US may not provide that much support - especially to Chrysler which is now an Italian company. Definitely not to Tesla it would seem, unless there is a change in President. GM makes a lot of its profit in China (Ford doesn't seem to make that much money there), so their lack of EV movement may be especially painful.

The point is though, that in the short-term the other car manufacturers are not as heavily cash-flow negative and may have significant financial reserves to draw upon. Tesla does not, hence its recent cash raise. If Tesla is not profitable, and cash-flow positive, at the end of the year its ability to raise more cash will be much more limited. A lower share price will make any cash raise much more dilutive (a greater percentage of market valuation which is #of shares * price). It also certainly does not seem to have any friends in the White House.

And I do have a business degree - an MBA in Finance.
« Last Edit: June 06, 2019, 09:43:08 PM by rboyd »

Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2498 on: June 06, 2019, 09:47:22 PM »
Tesla (TSLA) [stock price] rebounds as expected Model 3 sales crush ‘demand problem’ narrative
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-tsla-crushes-demand-problem-narrative/

Tesla made sure the Model 3 fits in Japan’s automated multistory parking machines.  An important consideration for car buyers in the space-challenged country.
Tesla showcases why the Model 3 is perfect for small parking spaces
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-model-3-is-perfect-for-small-parking-spaces/

Article with 5-minute video.  Nothing official, but everything mentioned is right in line with where EVs are going, and Tesla is certainly not waiting around for other carmakers to catch up — to where Tesla was in 2012!
Next-gen Tesla Model S/X rumored to have 3 electric motors, 400+ mile range
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-model-s-model-x-refresh-details-leaked/

Quote
Bonnie Norman (@bonnienorman) 6/6/19, 10:18 AM
Like clockwork, every quarter:
Q3: M̵̵̵a̵̵̵r̵̵̵k̵̵̵ ̵̵̵m̵̵̵y̵̵̵ ̵̵̵w̵̵̵o̵̵̵r̵̵̵d̵̵̵s̵̵̵,̵̵̵ ̵̵̵b̵̵̵a̵̵̵n̵̵̵k̵̵̵w̵u̵̵̵p̵̵̵t̵̵̵ ̵̵̵Q̵̵̵4̵̵̵
Q4: B̵a̵n̵k̵w̵u̵p̵t̵ ̵Q̵1̵
Q1 '19: B̵a̵n̵k̵r̵u̵p̵t̵ ̵n̵e̵x̵t̵ ̵q̵u̵a̵r̵t̵e̵r̵
Q2 '19: Def bankwupt Q3
Nope. Just nope.
https://twitter.com/bonnienorman/status/1136638426755637248

Quote
Zoltan Karpat (@Poxenium) 6/6/19, 1:01 PM
"But what if 10 out of 10 things go wrong?"  :) :D ;D
https://twitter.com/poxenium/status/1136679510076735496
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oren

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2499 on: June 06, 2019, 11:46:09 PM »
I am moving my guidance from 'buy' to 'mortgage your house and buy tsla right now"!!!

in a few months we will be back up to $400 and it is going to $2400 by 2030.

Since I posted my guidance on TSLA its stock has risen 19%.  Didn't realize I had so much pull on Wall St.   ;D

Classic bounce back toward its moving average (at $240) after very oversold readings, if it doesn't break that the downtrend will resume very quickly - and new lows.
I think it's a bit more than classic. When you correctly identified oversold conditions 3 days ago, you considered likely a retest of $188 from below and continued slide afterward.
Anyway, for me it was too quick and too high, so my perfectly-timed long position is now gone.