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GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2500 on: June 07, 2019, 02:06:41 AM »
https://www.cnbc.com/video/2019/06/04/teslas-going-to-have-to-restructure-says-blaine-capital.html

Tesla’s going to have to restructure, says Blaine Capital
Tesla is going to be “worthless” as far as the equity is concerned, says William Smith of Blaine Capital.

I mean duh, right.

"If you look at the product that Tesla is actually making now, this Model 3, it is absolute garbage. This is not the 'S' and it's not the 'X'.  That's the old Tesla. This new Tesla is being thrown together by hand in a tent. You can't go through a car wash. These things are blowing up all the time. The batteries are incinerating. It is not a quality product."

llol

"They have very poor management. Elon Musk is not a genius, he's not a visionary. He's a charlatan, he's a carnival barker. He can not replace any of the massive amounts of management that are leaving the company."

Not good when the mainstream media is catching onto the fact that the cult leader is a con artist.
big time oops

rboyd

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2501 on: June 07, 2019, 06:54:08 PM »
I am moving my guidance from 'buy' to 'mortgage your house and buy tsla right now"!!!

in a few months we will be back up to $400 and it is going to $2400 by 2030.

Since I posted my guidance on TSLA its stock has risen 19%.  Didn't realize I had so much pull on Wall St.   ;D

Classic bounce back toward its moving average (at $240) after very oversold readings, if it doesn't break that the downtrend will resume very quickly - and new lows.
I think it's a bit more than classic. When you correctly identified oversold conditions 3 days ago, you considered likely a retest of $188 from below and continued slide afterward.
Anyway, for me it was too quick and too high, so my perfectly-timed long position is now gone.

Looks like that bounce is getting a bit tired, without reaching the moving average. Looks like you did a great trade! Closing out the position at the right time is always the hardest ...

Archimid

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2502 on: June 08, 2019, 12:08:58 AM »
It is not too late to capitalize on the next great Tesla product. The electric, autonomous Model LM!

Introducing Tesla Model Lawnmower




I hope the satire is evident, but since there are sensitive people on this thread I'll better make a explicit warning. This is a fake video. The Tesla lawnmower isn't real.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2503 on: June 08, 2019, 03:14:40 AM »
The Tesla lawnmower isn't real.

You should consider posting the same warning on posts about FSD, the Semi, the roof tile, profitability, factory autonomization, etc.
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Archimid

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2504 on: June 08, 2019, 03:41:02 AM »
FSD is an extremely interesting scientific challenge. The semi will change the equation on transportation and CO2. The roof tile is the logical solution to our need for abundant energy. Profitability is a great tool to create sustainable patterns. Factory automation is a never ending process.

GSY. Tesla's attitude is what we need to stop climate change and change the world for better. Like Tesla's challenge, climate change will require ambitious goals, extremely hard work and luck. Tesla is doing their part. There is much more to be done.

Judging by your alarmist (alarmist is the correct stance for the situation) comments you know what is at stake. If you truly understand, you must know that Tesla is offering the quickest most real solution to climate change. You must also realize that there is no way Tesla can do it alone. I hope you realize that energy independence, like the one offered by Tesla is creating resilience that will save lives as billion dollar disasters become the norm.  Even if Tesla fails it's mission people are safer from climate change by virtue of energy independence.

Is it perfect? Of course not, but it is the correct direction. I wish I could understand you. Why are you opposed to this solution so vehemently?
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2505 on: June 08, 2019, 05:15:32 PM »
Can’t believe the “analysts” who change their tune from day to day, getting paid to drum up fees from trading in every direction.  They don’t know much about Tesla or the EV industry, and they care even less about the truth.

Quote
In a note to investors on Wednesday, Jonas stated that the month of May saw Tesla continue to “to extend its lead vs. a still-small group of true electric vehicle competitors.” The analyst added that Tesla’s estimated total US sales in May, which is speculated to be around 11,300 vehicles, was 2.6 times the combined total of competitors such as the Audi e-tron, Jaguar I-PACE, BMW i3, Nissan Leaf, and the Chevy Bolt EV, a vehicle once-dubbed as a potential “Tesla Killer.”

Jonas’ note on Wednesday struck a different tone than his previous bearish note on the company, where he gave TSLA stock a “worst case” price target of just $10 per share. During his previous note, Jonas remarked that Tesla is no longer seen as a growth story, but rather, a “distressed credit and restructuring story.” Most of these sentiments were quite absent in the analyst’s note on Wednesday.
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-tsla-crushes-demand-problem-narrative/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2506 on: June 08, 2019, 05:19:51 PM »
Tesla China.  Now that the building is up, did you expect them to stop and rest?
Quote
Vincent (@vincent13031925) 6/7/19, 2:38 PM
Tesla Shanghai Gigafactory
June 7th 2019
Production machineries are setting up inside the GF3 China now. Possibly will have running test in August.

$TSLA #Tesla #China #TeslaChina #特斯拉
https://twitter.com/vincent13031925/status/1137066416849342464

——
China regulations ease for EV registrations
Quote
In what could very well be a stroke of luck, the China National Reform and Development Commission also released a new policy barring local governments across the nation to enact restrictions on electric vehicle registrations. Prior to this update, Tier 1 cities such as Beijing and Shanghai have adopted strategies such as license plate quotas to control the number of vehicles registrations per year.

Beijing, for example, generally required prospective car buyers to get license plate numbers through a lottery. EV buyers are given a bit more leeway, since they are only required to queue up their license plate applications. Considering that the city has a quota of 60,000 EVs per year under the prior system, EV buyers could end up waiting a long time before they are issued a license plate for their electric cars.

While inconvenient, it should be noted that this wait time is still far more convenient than what is experienced by buyers of internal combustion vehicles in Beijing. Apart from having to participate in a lottery for license plates, buyers of ICE cars are also required to follow “limit days,” where their vehicles are forbidden on roads at certain days of the week.

Under the terms of the new regulations, local governments and enterprises are required to give policy support for electric vehicles in terms of purchase restrictions, and even parking fees, among others. Previous restrictions have also been cancelled. This update could ultimately open a torrent of new electric car purchases in China’s Tier 1 cities, as buyers are now more incentivized to purchase an EV. This, of course, could significantly benefit Tesla.

Tesla is currently saturating the Chinese market with the Model 3, though it should be noted that the company is only partly done with its push into the lucrative Chinese market. With Gigafactory 3’s workers seemingly shifting their efforts to the facility’s interior, Tesla might very well reach its goal of producing Made-in-China Model 3s by the end of the year. If Tesla accomplishes this, then the company’s future in China might very well become even brighter.
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-navigate-on-autopilot-china-model-3-registrations/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2507 on: June 08, 2019, 05:28:40 PM »
Monthly YoY sales:
Quote
James Stephenson (@ICannot_Enough) 6/4/19, 10:11 PM
The @InsideEVs May estimate was released today and marked the 17th straight month in which $TSLA set a new monthly record for U.S. sales.
I was told there would be a demand cliff... ;D
https://twitter.com/icannot_enough/status/1136093064253063168
Graph below.

——
Tesla opens first public Supercharger V3 250kW station to its fleet
Quote
Note these new Supercharger stations have a thinner, glycol/liquid cooled cable. ...
Tesla confirmed last month that it build a Supercharger V3 production line at its Gigafactory 2 in Buffalo and it is already in operation. More production lines are planned for later this year.
It should result in an increase in production of the new Supercharger V3 charging cabinets and deployment at exiting older charging stations in need of an upgrade and at new charging locations.
https://electrek.co/2019/06/07/tesla-supercharger-v3-station-open/

Tesla's first V3 Supercharging stations are open to the public
https://www.engadget.com/amp/2019/06/07/tesla-v3-supercharging-stations-public/

——-
Quote
Vincent (@vincent13031925) 6/7/19, 11:19 AM
Employer branding specialists Universum have just released their annual rankings of the most attractive employers in the US for 2019!
#1st  @SpaceX
#2nd @Tesla

Congratulation to @elonmusk #SpaceX & #Tesla Team
$TSLA  businessinsider.com/universum-most…
https://twitter.com/vincent13031925/status/1137016350923116547
Image below.

—-
Quote
Steve Jobs (@tesla_truth) 6/6/19, 3:39 PM
Two "No Demand" Stories
I'm going 80 in a 40 zone on the way to work. See sirens behind me. Fuck. Pull over.
Cop comes over -- starts asking me about the car. Which one should he get, do I like it. I tell him about the tax credit halving. I give him my referral. No ticket.
https://twitter.com/tesla_truth/status/1136719340802154497

Steve Jobs (@tesla_truth) 6/6/19, 3:39 PM
Another "No Demand" story
I come in to work today and see an extra Model 3 charging. I recently helped one of my co-workers buy one for his wife. I ask "why do you have it? Was she having some issue or something?"
"No, she didn't have to go to work today. So I took her car"
https://twitter.com/tesla_truth/status/1136719341431402497
- He drives a VW Tiguan and says "Model 3 makes driving my car feel like a joke"
His lease expires in November of 2020 and he's already put an order in for a Model Y. He didn't need any convincing.
Stealing your wife's car... that's a bullish indicator
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2508 on: June 08, 2019, 05:34:40 PM »
Quote
TeslaChartz (@ChartzTesla) 6/6/19, 1:07 PM
Official statistics from Germany. @Tesla, @Porsche and @Jaguar sales from the first 5 months of 2018 and 2019. $tsla $tslaq
Clearly no demand. Be careful Porsche, Tesla is coming. Source: kba.de/DE/Presse/Pres…
https://twitter.com/chartztesla/status/1136681016469458945
Chart below.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2509 on: June 08, 2019, 06:44:58 PM »
Germany would not allow their car manufacturers to go bust, too great an economic loss for the country. It may become educational how fast Germany will forget about "European Competition Rules" when required. ...

German carmakers “forgot” about competition years ago. They formed a cartel that stifled innovation and generated a culture that rejects hard solutions — and transitioning from ICE to EV must be the hardest change imaginable.  They are anchored firmly in the past, both culturally and fiancially, and won’t see profits from EVs for years, if ever. 

In contrast, Tesla has no ICE assets or heritage to hold it back.  Tesla invests purely in its future, making it more nimble, flexible and able to succeed than the established manufacturers.  Tesla has a profit margin over 20% on its cars — including the best-selling EV on the planet — a profit unheard of for most carmakers, and as yet unreached by any other EV.

Collusion Between Germany's Biggest Carmakers
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2686.msg204301.html#msg204301
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b_lumenkraft

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2510 on: June 08, 2019, 07:19:24 PM »
As you know, Sigmetnow, i do hate the German car industry for the reasons you mentioned.

But Rboyd has a point here. I can't imagine the German government not going full Keynesian if bankruptcies are on the horizon. And this is not dependent on the ruling party. Even the Greens would do it if they would win the elections.

The German taxpayers will suffer from the stupidity of CEOs. Mark my words!

Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2511 on: June 08, 2019, 08:54:02 PM »
As you know, Sigmetnow, i do hate the German car industry for the reasons you mentioned.

But Rboyd has a point here. I can't imagine the German government not going full Keynesian if bankruptcies are on the horizon. And this is not dependent on the ruling party. Even the Greens would do it if they would win the elections.

The German taxpayers will suffer from the stupidity of CEOs. Mark my words!

The 2008+ U.S. auto industry bailout cost the U.S. taxpayers $10 billion.  I imagine any German bailout would be as bad, or worse.  But the money would be better spent to create an entirely new EV/battery/solar industry, with new jobs and completely new management, rather than trying to “repair” a bankrupt ICE industry.

Fun fact:  Ford and Tesla are the only U.S. automakers that have not gone bankrupt.

https://www.thebalance.com/auto-industry-bailout-gm-ford-chrysler-3305670
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b_lumenkraft

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2512 on: June 08, 2019, 09:09:02 PM »
But the money would be better spent to create an entirely new EV/battery/solar industry, with new jobs and completely new management, rather than trying to “repair” a bankrupt ICE industry.

Yup!

There are some German EV car startups like eGO, Sion Motors, and Streetscooter, but they are so tiny and underfunded, i don't know about their future.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2513 on: June 09, 2019, 02:12:05 PM »
And this was during Tesla’s terrible, horrible, very bad first quarter of 2019! :P
Give the rescue billion$ to Tesla and let them turn Europe around.

Tesla Outsold Porsche & Jaguar Globally In 1st Quarter
Quote
In the first quarter of 2019, for the third quarter in a row, Tesla outsold Porsche and Jaguar globally.

When you think of how well known and long respected Porsche and Jaguar are, Tesla’s consistently higher sales are a notable marker. There are frequently claims by critics and short sellers that once the big, old automakers decide to get moving, they will crush Tesla. Porsche and Jaguar have often been cited by those fortune tellers, with many a reference to the Jaguar I-PACE and Porsche Taycan, for example. But the sales data show us that Tesla is already bigger than Porsche and Jaguar. It is already the bigger boy.

Interestingly, Porsche’s Q1 2018 sales were slightly higher than Tesla’s Q1 2019 sales, but the German high-performance carmaker saw its sales drop 12% year over year, from 63,478 in Q1 2018 to 55,700 in Q1 2019. That reminds us that we’re not looking at Tesla’s growth in a vacuum. It is taking sales from other automakers, some certainly from Porsche, which was highly regarded as the performance driving leader before Tesla came along.

Of course, both Jaguar and Porsche sell several more models than Tesla. As Tesla expands its vehicle lineup, its sales consistently grow. The lower-cost Tesla Model 3 exploded Tesla’s sales, and the Model Y crossover is expected to do the same within a couple of years.

Also worth noting is that Jaguar and Porsche have long remained in the premium-class, exclusive, rich-person car category. Tesla, on the other hand, through its much more efficient electric powertrains, has made the argument that a Model 3 can compare on cost with mass-market cars like the Toyota Camry and Honda Accord — while still offering the performance of a Porsche! ...
https://cleantechnica.com/2019/06/08/tesla-outsold-porsche-jaguar-globally-in-1st-quarter/
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GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2514 on: June 10, 2019, 05:04:24 AM »
Production machineries are setting up inside the GF3 China now. Possibly will have running test in August.

Well considering a lot of "definitely"s and "zero-doubt"s dates have passed years ago..I think a "possibly" might as well be translated as "in the next millennium, maybe".
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GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2515 on: June 10, 2019, 05:54:41 AM »
FSD is an extremely interesting scientific challenge. The semi will change the equation on transportation and CO2. The roof tile is the logical solution to our need for abundant energy. Profitability is a great tool to create sustainable patterns. Factory automation is a never ending process.

-In Jan 2017, Musk said FSD would be ready in "3 months maybe, 6 months definitely." It has been 5 times longer than the "definitely". Nothing indicates the tech is closer today, despite having logged "billions of miles of data".

-Semi production was supposed to start this year, but obviously will not. I do agree that it would change the equation on transportation. The energy storage weighing 30% of the load vs 1% of the load is a big change. And the explosions will be epic.

-The roof tile does seem a logical solution to abundant energy. Over two year ago, Musk unveiled Tesla's* solar roof tile. (*It was ostensibly SolarCity's tech and thus provided cover for the nepotistic bail out.*) Tesla is installing approximating zero of these solar roofs today...because like everything else on this list, THE TECH IS FAKE.

-Musk has continuously claimed that Tesla will be "profitable from now on" since 2011. In the last 4 years, the closest they have come is losing 2/3 of a billion dollars. If it is such a great tool, it is a shame it isn't in Tesla's toolbox.

-The model 3 production line, was supposed to be the "alien dreadnought" of super autonomy. They ended up getting built by hand in a tent. Overall the Fremont factory employs more people per car than practically every other auto factory in the world (and it is in practically the highest labor cost area in the world, lol). Musk ended up admitting that 'WOW autonomy is hard and people do a lot of things better than machines.'

Tesla's attitude is what we need to stop climate change and change the world for better.

Nope. Tesla's attitude is Musk's attitude. And Musk's attitude is, "I want to be on the cover of Rolling Stone." He has succeeded by convincing non-geniuses that he is on a mission to save the world.

Even if Tesla fails it's mission people are safer from climate change by virtue of energy independence.

Independence from what? My guess is that you are saying independence from fossil fuels. But this is totally untrue. Teslas are made using tons of fossil fuel energy and even fossil fuels themselves. Every step of the manufacturing process requires fossil fuels and the batteries usually charge from electricity generated by fossil fuels. Even when the electricity does come from solar panels, the solar panels are made possible 100% thanks to fossil fuels (although it is quite likely a more efficient use of the fossil fuels than simply burning them to generate electricity).

Why are you opposed to this solution so vehemently?

Because it is a dead end solution that consumes tons of the passion and energy that could potentially go into REAL SOLUTIONS. It is an incredibly lazy idea that solution we need is to live basically the same way but just have someone else manufacture our lifestyle in a "green" way. NO. OMFG NO. We actually have to live drastically different lifestyles to have different outcomes. And person thousand kilo cars almost certainly play no role in that different lifestyle. Musk is a pathetically clear and obvious liar. Tesla has almost no chance of survival, and I find the entire ordeal distasteful...nah, APPALLING. The weak mindedness of those who see provenly fake tech as the solution, due to it's theoretical convenience and because of how in vogue it is to do so DISGUST ME. I wish that y'all were a different species, but alas you are not. And when I look in the mirror, I see a human who must at some level be capable of the same idiocy and my heart sinks.

Drops Mic
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GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2516 on: June 10, 2019, 06:42:34 AM »
Or you can listen to Bill Gates explain it in 2 minutes.

https://twitter.com/dmichie66/status/1071847554650857472

"How are you going to make steel?...where's the fertilizer, cement, plastic, where's it going to come from?... There is no substitute for how the industrial economy runs..."

Tesla doesn't change that. Even if they could, they are not competent enough to execute.

The only thing that changes the paradigm is governments rewriting the rules to change the incentives that determine our lifestyles.

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b_lumenkraft

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2517 on: June 10, 2019, 06:48:44 AM »
LOL Tesla not making fertilizer, cement, and plastic makes them evil.

You sure need to go through loops now to maintain your hate on Tesla, don't you? The numbers aren't so bad after all, right?

b_lumenkraft

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2518 on: June 10, 2019, 08:18:05 AM »
Munro Teardown Shows Tesla Model 3 Solidly Profitable



Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2519 on: June 10, 2019, 05:53:19 PM »
Over 5,793 days without bankruptcy, despite critics’ calls for it since Day One.  Congratulations, Tesla!

From 2018.  FUD From 2008/9 that is still used today.
Tesla — Dead For 10 Years
https://cleantechnica.com/2018/08/29/tesla-bankrupt-for-10-years/

—-
Graph Of Tesla Analyst Stock Price Targets Raises Questions, Provides Two Takeaways
https://cleantechnica.com/2019/06/09/graph-of-tesla-analyst-stock-price-targets-raises-questions-provides-two-takeaways/

Horizontal bar graphs below (from Real-Time Stocks Tracker app) show the schizoid nature of analyst recommendations re Tesla.  Ford and GM graphs for comparison.

——
The Tesla Model 3 is already the most popular EV for UK leasing customers
https://drivetribe.com/p/the-tesla-model-3-is-already-the-SDTOCdyUQzCM9Em_7Vtqzw?iid=MnvwDwywRsOZrrsHpvKy_g

——
While the numbers will vary from month to month, half of all cars sold in 2019 in Norway will probably be fully electric, the head of the Norwegian Electric Vehicle Association (NEV) said.
Tesla boom lifts Norway's electric car sales to record market share
https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKCN1RD2BB

——
Toyota Plans To Lose To Tesla — Just 1 Million Electric Vehicles By 2025
Quote
Toyota recently announced it is advancing its existing EV roadmap by 5 years. Instead of selling 1 million fully electric vehicles (BEVs & Fuel Cell EVs), per year by 2030, the target year is now 2025. Tesla plans to sell 1 million BEVs per year by 2021, at least 4 years ahead of Toyota. Even Volkswagen expects to reach that goal in 2022. Toyota is essentially admitting defeat at this point. …
https://cleantechnica.com/2019/06/08/toyota-plans-to-lose-to-tesla-just-1-million-electric-vehicles-cumulative-by-2025/
Quote
< Sales numbers are the best survey one can make...!
ValueAnalyst (@ValueAnalyst1) 6/8/19, 10:16 AM
Yes, and traditional OEMs see sell-through rates even though we see only what they sell to dealers, so @Toyota is already witnessing the likely double-digits drops in their ICE sales due to Model 3 Standard demand surge this summer.
https://twitter.com/valueanalyst1/status/1137362772730294272

——
Streamlining Manufacturing Of The Tesla Model 3 For The Model Y
https://cleantechnica.com/2019/06/08/streamlining-manufacturing-of-the-tesla-model-3-for-the-model-y/

—-
Quote
Andy Slye (@slye) 6/8/19, 11:53 AM
It finally happened. I got recognized out in public at a random (non-Tesla event) place. Guy walked up & asked if I did #Tesla videos on YouTube. He said he bought a Model S last week after watching my videos. Kind of a weird (yet cool) feeling being recognized by total strangers
https://twitter.com/slye/status/1137387201938055168
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2520 on: June 10, 2019, 08:56:49 PM »
TeslaOptimist (@TeslaOptimist) 6/7/19, 11:43 PM
Five months later ... $TSLA #Tesla (via Reddit)
https://twitter.com/teslaoptimist/status/1137203406265708544


Quote
Marcel Münch 马塞 (@_mm85)6/10/19, 8:07 AM
Been to #tesla Gigafactory 3 in #Shanghai & can confirm they are already installing tools inside. Saw @BoschGlobal machinery been put up. Also spoke to workers (I speak Chinese), they said aiming to finish by August. #China speed! 中国速度 Video soon #model3 $tsla $tslaq #tslaq
https://twitter.com/_mm85/status/1138055072024322050
Two photos at the link.
« Last Edit: June 10, 2019, 09:05:29 PM by Sigmetnow »
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GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2521 on: June 11, 2019, 04:35:16 AM »
Munro Teardown Shows Tesla Model 3 Solidly Profitable

Never has there ever been a genuine company's profitability analysis based on tearing one of there products apart. It's honestly pathetic. Imagine tearing into a block of cement to see if the cement manufacturer is profitable. Total Muskian cult nonsense.
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GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2522 on: June 11, 2019, 04:37:11 AM »
LOL Tesla not making fertilizer, cement, and plastic makes them evil.

Except I never said that, and you totally (probably intentionally) missed the point. If you can't understand the argument that fossil fuels are the foundation of everything in a first world lifestyle, and that thus the lifestyle is what needs changing, you are totally lost. 
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GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2523 on: June 11, 2019, 05:00:54 AM »
Five months later ...

Nobody ever said you can't build a shell of a building in five months. Congratulations. Looks very Chinese. Which everyone know is synonymous with very green.
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Archimid

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2524 on: June 11, 2019, 05:03:50 AM »
Quote
If you can't understand the argument that fossil fuels are the foundation of everything in a first world lifestyle, and that thus the lifestyle is what needs changing, you are totally lost.

Abundant, cheap energy is the foundation of everything in a first world lifestyle. It doesn't matter if it comes from dead dinosaurs (solar energy of the past) or directly from the sun.

And that is a good enough preamble to answer your question.

Quote
Independence from what?

Energy independence. If a man's home is his castle, energy independence is his castle's walls. Once your castle is energy independent, water independence and food independence follows. The more energy, food and water independent people we have in the world, the more resilient we are as a species.

I hope you can see the role Tesla plays. They are the tip of the spear toward the transition to emissions free transportation and a solar powered world. However, if the transition is not made in time, the energy independence batteries provide can serve as a life boat for people that become energy independent before the industrial capacity of modern civilization is lost to climate chaos.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

b_lumenkraft

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2525 on: June 11, 2019, 06:01:35 AM »
Munro Teardown Shows Tesla Model 3 Solidly Profitable

Never has there ever been a genuine company's profitability analysis based on tearing one of there products apart. It's honestly pathetic. Imagine tearing into a block of cement to see if the cement manufacturer is profitable. Total Muskian cult nonsense.

Here we have an expert. A guy who makes a living with analysing cars, components, supply chains and prices. He earns millions because other experts buy his reports. His customers are other car makers. They pay high prices to get his knowledge.

And there you think you know better than him. You are hilarious GSY.

b_lumenkraft

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2526 on: June 11, 2019, 06:07:19 AM »
LOL Tesla not making fertilizer, cement, and plastic makes them evil.

Except I never said that, and you totally (probably intentionally) missed the point. If you can't understand the argument that fossil fuels are the foundation of everything in a first world lifestyle, and that thus the lifestyle is what needs changing, you are totally lost.

This is the Tesla thread. You used stupid Gates as an argument why Tesla is bad. I'm not the lost one here.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2527 on: June 11, 2019, 01:58:03 PM »
The revolution will be webcast.

Tesla, Inc.
2019 Annual Shareholder Meeting

Tuesday, June 11, 2019 at 2:30 PM PDT (21:30 GMT)
https://www.tesla.com/shareholdermeeting

Edit:  Tesla shareholders can vote here for the questions to be asked during the Q&A:
https://www.say.com/qa/tesla
« Last Edit: June 11, 2019, 02:18:17 PM by Sigmetnow »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2528 on: June 11, 2019, 03:48:42 PM »
The Tesla Twittersphere — What Is Weird About Wanting To Have A Better Future?
https://cleantechnica.com/2019/06/11/the-tesla-twittersphere-what-is-weird-about-wanting-to-have-a-better-future/

Quote
Steve Jobs (@tesla_truth) 6/9/19, 10:22 PM
Audi: We have 1 crappy EV in our lineup, it goes 204 miles on a charge, costs $75,000 and we are calling it the Audi Turd.
Media:  [much applause]

Tesla: All our cars are fully electric and now you can get a Model 3 starting at $35,000 with up to 325 miles range
Media:  :-\ Fraud?
https://twitter.com/tesla_truth/status/1137907867166552066

Steve Jobs (@tesla_truth) 6/10/19, 3:45 AM
Audi: Oh by the way the turd might catch on fire if it gets wet?

Media: [image of burning car that gets lots of likes when labeled a Tesla, but not when it’s corrected to be a “Jaguar hybrid”]
https://twitter.com/tesla_truth/status/1137989208465858560

Tesla Demand Cliff Analysis, Courtesy Of A Frunkpuppy Lover (Graph)
https://cleantechnica.com/2019/06/10/tesla-demand-cliff-analysis-courtesy-of-a-frunkpuppy-lover/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2529 on: June 11, 2019, 04:12:03 PM »
Choose your preferred performance metric.

“At 80%, which both cars reach at around the same time, the Audi has a range of 163.2 miles while the Tesla has 260 miles.”

Tesla Model 3 vs. Audi e-tron at IONITY 350kW, who wins?
https://electrek.co/2019/06/11/tesla-model-3-vs-audi-e-tron-350kw-charge-off/
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rboyd

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2530 on: June 11, 2019, 09:57:55 PM »
For those that have mortgaged their houses to invest in Tesla, it may be time to sell and pay back the mortgage. For the more aggressive types a little short position may be interesting. 

Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2531 on: June 12, 2019, 02:44:09 AM »
2019 Shareholder meeting.
My notes:

- Demand: Quarter to date, orders for S/X/3 far outpace production.  90% of orders are coming from non-reservation-holders.
- “Decent shot” of a record Q2 “on every level”
- Model 3 is the Best-Selling car by Revenue of Any Type in the U.S. —  beating Honda Accord and Civic, Toyota Camry and Corolla, and Nissan Altima.  Who imagined this would happen with an EV?
- Model 3 is the 4th best selling car by sales in the U.S.  In its class, it outsells the Audi A4, the Mercedes C Class, the BMW 3 series, and the Lexus ES —- combined!
- 63% of trade-ins for the Model 3 are non-premium cars.  People are trading up to get into this car.
- Model 3 is the most energy-efficient car in the world.
- No EV from another automaker has exceeded the range of the 2012 Model S.
- It won’t be long until Tesla has a 400-mile-range car
- Market for the Model Y is about 2.5 times that of the Model 3.
- “We currently can sell as many cars as we can make,” so no need for advertising yet.
- Not a fan of advertising.  But putting all the usual rebuttal arguments together on one page is a good idea.
- Practice ride-share app using human drivers?  “Makes sense.  We’ll probably try it.”
- Giga 3 China: stamping, paint, and battery module lines are being installed.
- “We may get into mining a little bit,” for battery ingredients.
- Decision on European gigafactory likely by the end of this year.
- Sales are good everywhere that: a Service Center is reasonably close, Superchargers are on every route you’d like to take, financing is available, and pricing is competitive.
- Cyberpunk pickup truck reveal this summer.  Semi production end of next year.  New production is dependent on increasing battery production.
- Battery/Powertrain Investor Day is in the works
- Insurance: small acquisition to complete, and some software to write.
- Production vs. profitability:  we could slow down and be more profitable, but we want to accelerate the adoption of sustainable transport.  Last year we doubled our fleet.  This year we will increase it by 60 to 80%.

Teslarati’s fun Live Blog:
Tesla (TSLA) 2019 Annual Shareholder Meeting: Live blog
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-tsla-2019-annual-shareholder-meeting-livestream-updates/

Watch here: https://m.youtube.com/watch?feature=youtu.be&v=Va5i42D13cI#
« Last Edit: June 12, 2019, 02:50:16 AM by Sigmetnow »
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GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2532 on: June 12, 2019, 04:33:49 AM »
2019 Shareholder meeting.
My notes:

What was that old joke?

“So if we’re selling dollars for ninety-cents how do we make money?”

“Volume.”
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GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2533 on: June 12, 2019, 05:54:15 AM »
- Production vs. profitability:  we could slow down and be more profitable, but we want to accelerate the adoption of sustainable transport.

Think about this: In Q1 Tesla gross profit was $565M while SGA was $704M. The car prices continue to get reduced. So they need to sell significantly more cars to have the same gross profit. Even if they do, they will still lose money. This has nothing to do with growth.

How on God's green earth do you Muskian Bulltards think they would make money by selling fewer cars? It is insane that Musk throws this out without bothering to explain it (especially considering it flies in the face of basic logic), and that his followers eat it up without a second thought because Musk claims it to help save the world...
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GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2534 on: June 12, 2019, 06:10:30 AM »
Abundant, cheap energy is the foundation of everything in a first world lifestyle. It doesn't matter if it comes from dead dinosaurs (solar energy of the past) or directly from the sun.

The energy that comes directly from the sun is super diffuse. The only way to capture it effectively for electricity is with a panel manufactured with fossil fuels every step of the way. There is no self contained solar manufacturing plant that produces its own energy and materials. It isn't possible.


Quote
Independence from what?

Energy independence. If a man's home is his castle, energy independence is his castle's walls. Once your castle is energy independent, water independence and food independence follows. The more energy, food and water independent people we have in the world, the more resilient we are as a species.

I hope you can see the role Tesla plays. They are the tip of the spear toward the transition to emissions free transportation and a solar powered world. However, if the transition is not made in time, the energy independence batteries provide can serve as a life boat for people that become energy independent before the industrial capacity of modern civilization is lost to climate chaos.

Wow. You really don't get it. I ask, "Independence from what," and you answer, "energy independence." Yikes.

All that aside...Even if you had solar panels and batteries and all the toys they power within your castle walls, you aren't even close to independent. Maybe for a few years. Everything breaks, and it breaks quite quickly. A decade is a good lifespan for most products. Solar panels might last more than a decade. A battery system possibly could. But everything they run has to be considered too.

Look at the warranty on most things! I sell pumps and they are all warrantied for 1 or 2 years. Some have 5 year warranties, but only for the components that don't break. But lets be crazy generous and say everything last 25 years. A person would have to go through 3 sets of everything in their life. All of these things are impossible to make without fossil fuels.

The idea that we can keep the same lifestyle but have companies make greener products and thus fix the systemic problems we face is crazy. It stems from intellectual laziness and a lack of real world experience with the way things are made and how a first world lifestyle is supported.
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wili

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2535 on: June 12, 2019, 06:26:58 AM »
GSY wrote: "The only way to capture it effectively for electricity is with a panel manufactured with fossil fuels..."

Of course, that has been the case mostly so far, since we live in a society largely powered by ff. But that doesn't mean it is necessarily the way things necessarily have to be in the future.

Having said that, the human project has proven to be massively destructive to the rest of life on earth and to the systems that support it. Ultimately, we need to reduce the amount of power that feeds this planetarily destructive force, even if the sources of that power seem relatively benign.

Just a late night (for me) thought to throw into the mix.
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oren

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2536 on: June 12, 2019, 07:50:21 AM »
- Production vs. profitability:  we could slow down and be more profitable, but we want to accelerate the adoption of sustainable transport.
Think about this: In Q1 Tesla gross profit was $565M while SGA was $704M. The car prices continue to get reduced. So they need to sell significantly more cars to have the same gross profit. Even if they do, they will still lose money. This has nothing to do with growth.
You could be right. Tesla has a positive gross margin (i.e. not selling a dollar for 90 cents, despite your jokes) but it hasn't proved yet that the rest of its expense structure can be fit inside that gross margin. Q2 results should be interesting.

Quote
How do you think they would make money by selling fewer cars? It is insane that Musk throws this out without bothering to explain it...
I think you have (deliberately or inadvertently) misunderstood the statement. I read it as saying they could be profitable if they stopped all development of future models and especially of autonomy, and other growth-oriented spending, and focused on being profitable with the products they have and only minor developments. Nobody said anything about selling fewer cars.
The fact that Musk says they could slow down and be more profitable does not mean that everybody automatically believes it. It also doesn't mean that it's automatically wrong. Time will tell.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2537 on: June 12, 2019, 02:45:08 PM »
TSLA is up over $5 (~2.5%) in premarket trading after yesterday’s shareholder meeting.  Interestingly: Exxon, Ford and GM are all trading lower.  Coincidence?  ??? ??? ??? ;D
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crandles

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2538 on: June 12, 2019, 03:02:55 PM »

- “Decent shot” of a record Q2 “on every level”

Does that include profit? I'm skeptical of that given the previous guidance was for (significantly reduced?) losses. But maybe it just means turnover and production, order and delivery quantity numbers?

Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2539 on: June 12, 2019, 03:29:46 PM »

- “Decent shot” of a record Q2 “on every level”

Does that include profit? I'm skeptical of that given the previous guidance was for (significantly reduced?) losses. But maybe it just means turnover and production, order and delivery quantity numbers?

Musk did not specify.  His only caveat was “or at least close.”  As we saw in March, a LOT can happen in the final weeks! :)
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oren

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2540 on: June 12, 2019, 03:59:26 PM »

- “Decent shot” of a record Q2 “on every level”

Does that include profit? I'm skeptical of that given the previous guidance was for (significantly reduced?) losses. But maybe it just means turnover and production, order and delivery quantity numbers?
I doubt profit is included. Turnover is also dubious, as previous quarters only included the more expensive trims. I assume he only means production and delivery numbers.
I also note that Q418 was just above 90k, so the guidance of 90k-100k was essentially for a new delivery record.

magnamentis

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2541 on: June 12, 2019, 04:37:05 PM »
I read it as saying they could be profitable if they stopped all development of future models ........

that's then a postponement of failure into the near future.  without development of new products a car maker is starting to fade out of the market within 2-4 years and will be heavily losing money from year 4 onward.....

that's not working, else it's not a solution but a short-sighted workaround to sooth the fearful minds of the shareholders.
« Last Edit: June 12, 2019, 07:41:30 PM by magnamentis »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2542 on: June 12, 2019, 07:08:24 PM »
One more thing ;) : Elon and Drew confirmed that Version 3 of the solar roof is predicted to be equal to the cost of a shingle roof plus a utility bill.  That is their goal, and they are focused on achieving it.  “It can be done!”

That would be huge.
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Bob Wallace

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2543 on: June 12, 2019, 11:42:04 PM »
Quote
Tesla has a positive gross margin (i.e. not selling a dollar for 90 cents, despite your jokes) but it hasn't proved yet that the rest of its expense structure can be fit inside that gross margin. Q2 results should be interesting.

Much has been made of Tesla's Q1 2019 loss of ~$702 million.  But I've read almost nothing about how 'soft' a loss it was.  Here's a quote from Tesla's 10-Q for the quarter.

Quote
Finished goods inventory included vehicles in transit to fulfill customer orders, new vehicles available for immediate sale at our retail and service center locations, used vehicles and energy storage products. As this was our first quarter delivering Model 3 vehicles outside of North America, finished goods inventory has increased as there are longer lead times associated with finite production capabilities at a single factory from which all Model 3 vehicles are shipped globally.   
   

      
Finished goods in transit in millions

Q1 2019   $2,215
Q4 2018   $1,581
Q4 to Q1 Increase $569


         

$569 million of the $702 million loss, 81%, was products finished, sold, and on the way to buyers.  Tesla does not record product sales until they are in the hands of buyers.  Tesla's actual Q1 losses were closer to $133 million. 

When combined with Q3 and Q4 profits of $311 million and $139 million.  Over the last three quarters Tesla has averaged a profit of over $100 million once extra inventory in transit is accounted for. 

Why the additional loss in Q1?  Here's Tesla's explanation from their Q1 letter to shareholders.

Quote
Deliveries of Model S and Model X declined to 12,100 vehicles in Q1 compared to our two- year run rate of roughly 25,000 units per quarter. This decline was mainly caused by weaker Q1 demand due to seasonality, pull-forward of sales into Q4 2018 in the U.S. due to the first scheduled reduction of the federal EV tax credit in Q1 and discontinuation of our 75 kWh battery pack. We also had a mismatch between orders and deliverable cars. For example, due to adjustments in pricing mid-quarter, the take rate for the performance versions of Model S and Model X increased faster than we were able to supply.
   

Tesla is saying that some of the Q1 loss was because people pulled their purchases forward into 2018 in order to get the full federal tax credit.  And there was clearly some disruption when Tesla modified the S/X.  There was a line shutdown and probably some buyers held off in early Q1 due to the update being commonly discussed.

Overall, Tesla is in good financial shape, regardless of what the 'negatives' claim.  S/X production seems to be higher in Q2 and Model 3 production is up significantly.

Tesla has apparently reached the point at which the company transitions from quarterly losses to consistant quarterly profits but it's not solidly into a 'profit every quarter' mode.  Overall profits are marginal and the final quarter number may bounce from black to red until Tesla's overall production increases.

The end of 2019 looks to be the point at which Tesla becomes a solidly profitable company.  The exterior of the Shanghai Gigafactory has been completed (in only six months) and the equipment to build Tesla EVs in China is being installed.  Apparently the stamping presses are now being installed and the paint room built.  There's a chance that EV production will start in August which means that Tesla should be selling significant numbers of EVs from the Shanghai plant in 2020.  The extra profit from those cars should make Tesla nicely profitable.  And a portion of the Q1 in transit "loss" will show up in profits as Tesla will no longer have as many cars waiting to be delivered on the last day of the quarter.
                                          

Bob Wallace

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2544 on: June 12, 2019, 11:56:11 PM »

The energy that comes directly from the sun is super diffuse. The only way to capture it effectively for electricity is with a panel manufactured with fossil fuels every step of the way. There is no self contained solar manufacturing plant that produces its own energy and materials. It isn't possible.


How about listing the 'steps' in manufacturing and installing a solar panel that could not be done using electricity?  Not the steps that we now do with fossil fuels, but what steps could only be done using fossil fuels. 

I'll help you out making the list:

Mining bauxite
Refining bauxite into aluminum
Forming aluminum into panel frames
Mining silicon
Processing silicon into cell wafers and glass for panel covers
Manufacturing panels from wafers, cover glass, and frame material
Hauling materials and finished goods
Installing panels

Right now we use mostly fossil fuels for mining but we do mine using electricity.  That tells us that fossil fuel is not necessary for mining.

Right now we mostly transport materials and goods using fossil fuel but we do have battery powered trucks which tells us that fossil fuels are not necessary for transportation.  (If the process takes place on one land mass.  We haven't solved transoceanic shipping.)

We already use electricity for bauxite and silicon processing.  We don't use any coal or oil powered tools in our solar panel factories.  Part of the electricity used does come from fossil fuels, but that is not necessary.

A few years back we passed the point at which we had more electricity generated per year than was used to produce solar panels.

OK, what did I miss?  What step absolutely requires fossil fuel?

crandles

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2545 on: June 13, 2019, 12:34:50 AM »
Quote
Tesla has a positive gross margin (i.e. not selling a dollar for 90 cents, despite your jokes) but it hasn't proved yet that the rest of its expense structure can be fit inside that gross margin. Q2 results should be interesting.

Much has been made of Tesla's Q1 2019 loss of ~$702 million.  But I've read almost nothing about how 'soft' a loss it was.  Here's a quote from Tesla's 10-Q for the quarter.

Quote
Finished goods inventory included vehicles in transit to fulfill customer orders, new vehicles available for immediate sale at our retail and service center locations, used vehicles and energy storage products. As this was our first quarter delivering Model 3 vehicles outside of North America, finished goods inventory has increased as there are longer lead times associated with finite production capabilities at a single factory from which all Model 3 vehicles are shipped globally.   
   


Finished goods in transit in millions

Q1 2019   $2,215
Q4 2018   $1,581
Q4 to Q1 Increase $569

$569 million of the $702 million loss, 81%, was products finished, sold, and on the way to buyers.  Tesla does not record product sales until they are in the hands of buyers.  Tesla's actual Q1 losses were closer to $133 million. 

Been through this before. Stock is on balance sheet. Sell that stock only releases ~20% margin to the P&L A/c.

The $.7bn loss is huge. Increasing vehicle sales by 50% as guided does not wipe it out.

Bob Wallace

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2546 on: June 13, 2019, 01:08:47 AM »
Quote
The $.7bn loss is huge.

There was no $.7 bn loss except on paper.  There was a yet to be received payment for goods produced during the quarter.  It shows as a loss on the operations page but just a bit of rational thought tells one that most of the on paper loss was simply a "late" payment that hadn't arrived by the end of the period.

If Tesla had shut down on April 1, 2019 and done absolutely nothing afterwards the funds from goods manufactured during Q1 would have arrived into the company's bank accounts.

Using standard accounting practices Tesla showed a $700 million loss in Q1.  But that number has be used in context if one is considering the viability of the company.


magnamentis

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2547 on: June 13, 2019, 01:41:06 AM »
Quote
The $.7bn loss is huge.

There was no $.7 bn loss except on paper.  There was a yet to be received payment for goods produced during the quarter.  It shows as a loss on the operations page but just a bit of rational thought tells one that most of the on paper loss was simply a "late" payment that hadn't arrived by the end of the period.

If Tesla had shut down on April 1, 2019 and done absolutely nothing afterwards the funds from goods manufactured during Q1 would have arrived into the company's bank accounts.

Using standard accounting practices Tesla showed a $700 million loss in Q1.  But that number has be used in context if one is considering the viability of the company.

you mean they publish a non-existent loss to build trust, comeon, it's the other way around, if they publish a loss of X it was >X and then since when do we relativate accounting?

this is what i call interpreting the numbers as they please the bias.

and last but not least we're talking quarters here, so losses are huge either way and this without any reserves from former profits and without any significant, if any, profits in sight?

while the tech world and myself still is in favour of tesla products (they have their flaws of course) the economic world is more and more shifting to the side of factual digits.

each quarter shall increase the debts and no matter what, they are not possible to be amortized, even without ever raising competition and hundreds of millions of profits per year, it can't be done before the next larger crises that shall drive the nail into tesla's coffin.
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Bob Wallace

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2548 on: June 13, 2019, 02:16:14 AM »
Quote
you mean they publish a non-existent loss to build trust, comeon, it's the other way around, if they publish a loss of X it was >X and then since when do we relativate accounting?

No, Tesla filled out their OpEx page in the normal fashion.  But if one does not think past that page then it's possible to end up believing something that is not true.  There is no line on a standard OpEx reporting page for inventory sold but not delivered.  That, due to how standard accounting works, spills over to the following quarter's OpEx report under Revenue.

What I am trying to communicate is the need to understand the OpEx report in order to gain an accurate appreciation of Tesla's financial conditions.

Think of it this way.  You've been working for a company that pays twice a month.  Midway through the month you get a check to compensate you for the work you did in the first half of the month and at the end of the month you get paid for work done in the second half.

Then if your employer switches from a 2x per month pay system to a 1x per month pay system, the middle of the month rolls around, and you get no check does that mean that you earned nothing in the first half?  Or does it mean that what you earned will show up in a couple of weeks?

If you want to claim that on their OpEx page Tesla reports a $700 million loss I'll agree. But if you want to argue that Tesla actually lost $700 million during Q1 I will not.  Tesla, due to the difference in time it takes to ship from one continent to another is getting paid 'at the end of the month' and not after the 'first half'.

Perhaps you wish to argue that that is only word usage.  But it isn't.  Failure to recognize the delayed payment for Q1 production leads one to believe that Tesla is in trouble.  Tesla is not.  The check is in the mail, the mail will be delivered, and it's a cashier's check.  It will not bounce.


oren

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2549 on: June 13, 2019, 02:17:57 AM »
Well if it isn't Bob Wallace himself!
While I disagree with your specific point (finished goods if sold would have made Q1 profitable), I am happy to see you posting again here after a long hiatus.