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Bob Wallace

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2600 on: June 18, 2019, 06:54:21 AM »

Too tempting to point out how optimistic your error was (considering I find all your other comments to be in the same vein).


I am an optimist. Not the pollyanna type, but someone who tries to stay grounded with facts and believes that we can solve most of our problems if we look for answers.  I also believe that being a pessimist is a likely route to failure.   

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I'll try to avoid disparaging comments in the future...

That would be nice.  The older I get the less tolerance I have for a-holes.

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So, I am totally committed and on board for changing the world to be 90% plus off of fossil fuels in the next 2 decades...BUT I don't think it is possible with the same sort of lifestyle the 1st world currently lives. You seem to disagree and believe there are like-for-like substitutes which can make (for example: CARS) effectively "green". I do not hold this belief.  I would love to, in good faith, discuss this.

First, let's recognize the difference between "could" and "will".  My comment was that we have the technology in hand to eliminate fossil fuel use for grid generation in the next 20 years by simply doubling the effort we've made in recent years.

I am not optimistic about that happening because we're losing time with this regressive administration and Senate trying to return us to the days of the robber barons.  I think there's a good chance of putting a decent person in the White House but I'm afraid we won't adequately deal with the Senate.  I think Republicans will cost us at least five years with their foot-dragging.

As for the rest of the world, Europe is likely to quit fossil fuels faster than the US.  China and India may surprise us and switch over fairly rapidly.  Russia probably won't. Africa is likely to have the greenest energy on the planet because it's cheaper for them to leapfrog over fossil fuels and go straight to renewables.

I think the world will move to EVs fairly rapidly.  For the simple reason that we are on the cusp of it being cheaper to manufacture an EV than an ICEV.  And it's already much cheaper to operate an EV. (edited: incorrected entered ICEV)  It's going to take a few more years for some of the major car manufacturers to transition into EV manufacturers but I think some of them now realize that it is necessary for their survival.

There are a number of other issues around sustainability in terms of materials for manufactured goods but I'm not dwelling on those.  If we run out of 'whatever' then we'll use something else.  We don't have an option to move to a planet with a better climate if we screw up this one.  Personally, I'm zeroed in on electricity, transportation, and heat.  The areas in which we turn fossil fuels into CO2.

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To establish a mutual level of understanding: what is your personal familiarity with manufacturing, mining, transportation, fluid transportation, industry at large, etc?

I've never worked in any of those areas.

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(for those who claim this is off topic: tesla's "glory" (at least on ASIF) is about its ability to aid humanity in removing itself for activities which increase GHG levels. thus, if you don't understand how this is germane, shut up and let the adults converse)

How about we do this.  Use this thread for Tesla.  There are threads for renewable energy and electric vehicles.  Perhaps there should be one for greening up industry and mining.
« Last Edit: June 18, 2019, 04:57:16 PM by Bob Wallace »

Bob Wallace

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2601 on: June 18, 2019, 07:01:07 AM »


Except that Panasonic has recently pulled back plans to expand operations due to Tesla's current inability to buy enough due to lack of demand (or if you believe bulls...I dunno, transportation hell or something). 

Do you know that for a fact or is that speculation?  What I'm hearing is that Tesla is not shipping PowerWalls at demand rate due to a shortage of cells. 

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Tesla bought Maxwell because Maxwell was going BK and would agree to almost any terms. Tesla wanted their cash on hand and the narrative that maybe there is some amazing tech. This staves off Tesla BK and helps keep Musk from his margin-call. Tesla only had pay with (soon to be worthless) stock. That's a bear take.

If Maxwell was going bankrupt why would they have cash on hand and why would they sell to Tesla for less value than their cash?  Something doesn't wash there.

Why would Musk be subject to a margin call? 


Bob Wallace

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2602 on: June 18, 2019, 07:05:55 AM »
Quote
Per news reports, there have been ~20 Tesla fires

Two of those fires were in the very early days when Tesla Ss ran over large metal objects in the road and punctured their battery packs.  After those two events Tesla added a shield under the packs and I haven't heard of another fire starting that way.

No, relevant and important.  The goal should be to have no fires.  I simply pointed out that one of the reasons has apparently been eliminated.   

There is probably no solution for battery fires in crashes where the some of the cells are ruptured.  At least until we get solid state batteries. 



The other 90%, irrelevant!
« Last Edit: June 18, 2019, 05:04:26 PM by Bob Wallace »

Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2603 on: June 18, 2019, 04:25:29 PM »
From the Maxwell link I posted above:
Quote
Traditional solvent-based electrode coating methods consume a large part of the production process. In the following figure, each processing step’s size on the page is approximately proportional to the plant area. The area just for the electrode preparation, coating, evaporation and evaporant recovery is almost 1/3 of the total plant area.

Special machines lay a thin layer of slurry onto copper or aluminum sheets to make the electrodes. Then, in a continuous manner, the coated electrode sheets go through a large, long oven used to evaporate the solvent. The solvent must also be recovered and reused.

All this solvent-based slurry manufacturing equipment is expensive and consumes 15% of the total capital equipment costs. ...
https://insideevs.com/news/355152/tesla-maxwell-beyond-battery-tech/amp/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2604 on: June 18, 2019, 04:33:41 PM »
Quote
Disruption Research (@DisruptResearch) 6/17/19, 9:38 PM
A remarkable thing happened when, a few months ago, an analyst with a Sell rating on $TSLA hosted a group investor call on LiDAR. 1/5 cc
https://twitter.com/disruptresearch/status/1140795922131116033
- The conference call’s agenda was to discredit @elonmusk’s claim that @Tesla can solve autonomy without LiDAR. To do this, the analyst invited someone with the worst possible conflict of interest: the President of a LiDAR manufacturer. 2/5
- My team reluctantly dialed in, expecting a foregone conclusion. To our surprise, the guest speaker stated that “LiDAR is not necessary” for autonomy - just a nice to have. Clearly displeased with how the call was going, the analyst tried to force different views out of him. 3/5
- “Are you sure!?” was heard on the call, more than once. But the LiDAR company executive was adamant in his view. This reminded me that many still value their intellectual honesty more than their economic incentives. 4/5
- That was until, a few weeks later, that very analyst published a summary of this call with a headline that was the exact opposite of what was said on the call... 5/5

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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2605 on: June 18, 2019, 04:44:42 PM »
Draw-down of inventory models could add a significant amount to Q2 sales.  This push might also be a prelude to the rumored refresh of Models S/X.
(Next-gen Tesla Model S/X rumored to have 3 electric motors, 400+ mile range
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-model-s-model-x-refresh-details-leaked/ )


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Tesla (@Tesla) 5/31/19, 11:17 AM
Important Announcement (unless you like paying for gas): All inventory Model S and Model X cars now come with unlimited free Supercharging. This ends on June 30.

ValueAnalyst (@ValueAnalyst1) 6/15/19, 8:58 AM
In Q2 2019, I roughly estimate that Tesla's total inventory of new and used vehicles across all models have declined by ~50 units per day.
teslainventory.teslastats.no/stats.php
https://twitter.com/valueanalyst1/status/1139879976495439872
If this is true, that’s an extra ~5,000 units delivered.

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ValueAnalyst (@ValueAnalyst1) 6/16/19, 9:57 AM
Based on admittedly limited data, I estimate that @Tesla has only a few hundred inventory Model S and Model X cars left and fewer than 200 in U.S.
tesla.com/inventory/new/…
https://twitter.com/valueanalyst1/status/1140257075303526401

Michael Leonard (@mleonard85) 6/16/19, 11:38 PM
Only one new inventory Model S showing up for my ZIP in Northern California. There were dozens a few weeks ago.
https://twitter.com/mleonard85/status/1140463640312602624
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2606 on: June 18, 2019, 04:55:20 PM »
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Don’t tell the Tesla bears that on average over the last three years, Q1 and Q2 only accounted for 37% of the yearly sales total.
They are convinced $TSLA won’t hit guidance but haven’t noticed this trend I guess.
Q1 2018 accounted for 12% of total #Tesla sales for the year.

https://twitter.com/28delayslater/status/1140621975561355264
First 1/2 vs second 1/2 sales percentage vs yearly sales:
2016 38-62
2017 45-55
2018 28-72
2019 ??

https://twitter.com/28delayslater/status/1140630620865028097

—-
- Defining “Crossing the Chasm”:
EV market share > 10% or more, and
Tesla market share > 3% or more

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ValueAnalyst (@ValueAnalyst1) 6/16/19, 6:24 AM
UPDATED: Markets where Tesla has or will soon “Cross the Chasm”
2018
Norway
U.S. West

2019
U.S. East
Canada
Netherlands
Sweden

2020
U.S. Central
Australia
China
UK
Finland
France
Germany
Japan


Which country would you add to this list?
https://twitter.com/valueanalyst1/status/1140203550733152256

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Starlight Energies (@Starlight_Energ) 6/15/19, 11:03 AM
name a country where Tesla deliveries will decline over the next year  ;D
https://twitter.com/starlight_energ/status/1139911377932320768
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2607 on: June 18, 2019, 04:56:45 PM »
Forbes!

“Consumers will ultimately discover Tesla’s technological and price – better value for money – leadership, as the advantage of Tesla over competitors is too significant to be ignored and dismissed. It will also become apparent that EV launches from traditional (manufacturers) also come with problems and delays. Quality issues can occur in early stages. Good examples of these are the recent recalls from Audi (E-tron) and the Jaguar I-Pace in the U.S.”

Report: German Competition Will Rebound In Tesla's Favor
https://www.forbes.com/sites/neilwinton/2019/06/17/german-competition-will-rebound-in-teslas-favor-report/
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Bob Wallace

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2608 on: June 18, 2019, 05:35:57 PM »
Well, Sigmetnow, you really hit it out of the park with those last four posts.  Excellent illustration of the value of the Maxwell acquisition.  Have you found any info as to how much the new process might cut the cost of finished cells?  And then there should be capacity increases meaning lighter battery packs.  Which means either longer range for the same weight or a smaller number of cells and lower cost for the same range.  I am struggling to figure out why anyone would need a 400+ mile range.  300 miles with rapid recharging (while you eat a meal) seems plenty to me.

After Tesla announced their long range 500 mile semi tractor Musk stated that the range would likely be closer to 600 miles.  A further increase in capacity may take the range over 600 miles.  I wonder if knowledge of the likely acquisition of Maxwell might have played a role in the delay of the T-semi release until next year.

Bob Wallace

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2609 on: June 18, 2019, 05:38:42 PM »

If S (and X?) inventory is dropping I wonder if that means the new versions are already being produced on the line, at least in test numbers.  And I wonder what changes will be made.  Will Tesla go so far as to eliminate the complex wiring harness and move to a simplified wiring system that is  used in the T3?  Will they switch to the new battery pack design used in the T3?

Will they offer a tarted up interior for those who believe a luxury car has to have a lot of fancy dials and knobs?  Naw....

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First 1/2 vs second 1/2 sales percentage vs yearly sales:
2016 38-62
2017 45-55
2018 28-72
2019 ??

During 2016 production numbers were still growing for the S/X.  In the second half of the year production hit what appears to be the assembly line limit of about 25k per quarter.  in 2017 it looks like Tesla might have put on a large push right at the end of the year delivering a few, about 3k, extra cars at the end of the year.  A couple thousand were the first T3 deliveries. 

2018 simply reflects the growth of the T3.  From 8,182 delivered in Q1 to 63,359 in Q4.  That's 4,873 per week in Q4.  Many rumors of much higher production during this quarter.  High production rates should be the rule for H2 2019.  This is when Tesla moves into profitable territory on a regular base or at least cuts losses to a minimal amount.


Bob Wallace

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2610 on: June 18, 2019, 05:46:38 PM »
Quote
Disruption Research (@DisruptResearch) 6/17/19, 9:38 PM
A remarkable thing happened when, a few months ago, an analyst with a Sell rating on $TSLA hosted a group investor call on LiDAR. 1/5 cc
https://twitter.com/disruptresearch/status/1140795922131116033
- The conference call’s agenda was to discredit @elonmusk’s claim that @Tesla can solve autonomy without LiDAR. To do this, the analyst invited someone with the worst possible conflict of interest: the President of a LiDAR manufacturer. 2/5
- My team reluctantly dialed in, expecting a foregone conclusion. To our surprise, the guest speaker stated that “LiDAR is not necessary” for autonomy - just a nice to have. Clearly displeased with how the call was going, the analyst tried to force different views out of him. 3/5
- “Are you sure!?” was heard on the call, more than once. But the LiDAR company executive was adamant in his view. This reminded me that many still value their intellectual honesty more than their economic incentives. 4/5
- That was until, a few weeks later, that very analyst published a summary of this call with a headline that was the exact opposite of what was said on the call... 5/5


I wonder if anyone recorded the exchange?

Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2611 on: June 18, 2019, 06:15:26 PM »
Well, Sigmetnow, you really hit it out of the park with those last four posts.  Excellent illustration of the value of the Maxwell acquisition.  Have you found any info as to how much the new process might cut the cost of finished cells?  And then there should be capacity increases meaning lighter battery packs.  Which means either longer range for the same weight or a smaller number of cells and lower cost for the same range.  I am struggling to figure out why anyone would need a 400+ mile range.  300 miles with rapid recharging (while you eat a meal) seems plenty to me.

After Tesla announced their long range 500 mile semi tractor Musk stated that the range would likely be closer to 600 miles.  A further increase in capacity may take the range over 600 miles.  I wonder if knowledge of the likely acquisition of Maxwell might have played a role in the delay of the T-semi release until next year.

Thanks.  Tesla remains secretive about cell cost… but there was quite a lot of non-verbal communication happening during the Shareholder Meeting between the Tesla higher-ups (on-stage and in the audience), concerning ‘doing everything we need to do’ to ensure an increased battery supply for their upcoming products.  (And especially around the “Model Y starting in late 2020” remark. ;) )

I agree that 400 miles (645 km) is more of a psychological necessity then a physical one. But it also supplies a buffer for cold weather, air conditioning, and mountainous driving.  In a few years, when fast charging infrastructure (and cars able to use it) are as ubiquitous as gas stations are today, having 400 mile range will not be as important in most markets.  (Will that help OEM automakers, who struggle to supply a satisfactory range today?  Perhaps that is one reason for their increasing charge point installations.)
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Archimid

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2612 on: June 18, 2019, 06:25:28 PM »
Sorry to interrupt such a great conversation but the Truckla is here!




And how it was made!





Please continue talking batteries.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

Bob Wallace

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2613 on: June 18, 2019, 07:23:21 PM »
OK, I'm now in love with this woman.  How do we bridge the 50 year age gap?  Can that be removed with grinder or sawzall?

Guess not.  Sad.

Tor Bejnar

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2614 on: June 18, 2019, 08:00:47 PM »
Cool project, for sure!

Bob, just look into Truckla's (so-called) rearview mirror that can see into the future - who knows? 
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b_lumenkraft

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2615 on: June 18, 2019, 09:34:29 PM »
“My goal is to never own a gas car,” said Simone Giertz who transformed a Tesla Model 3 into a pickup truck. “I’m a part of a new generation of drivers that will only drive electric. I feel like I should pad this a little bit, but I’m not going to. Fuck oil companies. Seriously, fuck them.”

Link >> https://www.theverge.com/2019/6/18/18682633/simone-giertz-tesla-model-3-pickup-truck-youtube-diy

oren

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2616 on: June 18, 2019, 09:39:22 PM »
Quote
I agree that 400 miles (645 km) is more of a psychological necessity then a physical one. But it also supplies a buffer for cold weather, air conditioning, and mountainous driving.
And towing.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2617 on: June 18, 2019, 09:45:36 PM »
Quote
I agree that 400 miles (645 km) is more of a psychological necessity then a physical one. But it also supplies a buffer for cold weather, air conditioning, and mountainous driving.
And towing.

Yes.  Good one.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2618 on: June 18, 2019, 09:46:35 PM »
Yawn
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2619 on: June 18, 2019, 10:58:17 PM »
Discovery:  Famed short-seller Jim Chanos has gone long! and purchased Tesla call options.  While this does not mean he’s gone bullish, he is at least stepping back from his oft-repeated claim that Tesla stock has nowhere to go except to $0.  The replies to the tweet below document some of the disbelief posted by his Tesla bear followers.

Tesla’s biggest short Jim Chanos is betting on a TSLA rise in latest SEC filing
Quote
SEC filings from noted Tesla short Jim Chanos’ Kynikos Associates LP has shown that the prolific short-seller’s fund is long $420,000 on TSLA call options. ...

Jim Chanos’ long TSLA call options has been met by bewilderment from the Tesla community. Chanos, after all, is considered as the most prominent short-seller against the electric car maker, at some points giving the impression that there is no margin of error in his negative predictions on Tesla. When Chanos emphasizes his thesis that Tesla is worth a $0, for example, he speaks with such certainty that he seems entirely convinced that there is no way for the electric car maker to succeed.

With this in mind, his long TSLA call options, all but indicates that he expects Tesla stock to rise, indicates Chanos is seriously considering, or perhaps even expecting, that the electric car maker’s stock price will be rising. It should be noted that Jim Chanos’ long TSLA call options do not mean that he is turning bullish on the electric car maker. Chanos likely remains as one of Tesla’s most ardent short-sellers today. It just so happens that as of writing, the investing community could see that the legendary short-seller seems to be considering a scenario where he might be wrong in his bet against Tesla. ...
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-short-jim-chanos-expects-tsla-rally-sec-filing/

Quote
Vincent (@vincent13031925) 6/17/19, 11:08 PM
Well, this is kinda Epic!
Jim Chanos' Kynikos fund is long $420k Tesla call options according to the latest 13F SEC filing
Via:   https://www.reddit.com/r/teslainvestorsclub/comments/c1tl23/jim_chanos_kynikos_fund_is_long_420k_tesla_call/ 
https://twitter.com/vincent13031925/status/1140818593606582273
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2620 on: June 19, 2019, 02:31:05 AM »
Discovery:  Famed short-seller Jim Chanos has gone long! ....
Or is he just putting a floor on potential losses if his short doesn't pan out. I swear the media doesn't understand or intentionally misleads the public on the market.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2621 on: June 19, 2019, 09:44:12 PM »
Discovery:  Famed short-seller Jim Chanos has gone long! ....
Or is he just putting a floor on potential losses if his short doesn't pan out. I swear the media doesn't understand or intentionally misleads the public on the market.

Yes, this could be a hedge.  But Chanos has boasted long and loud that Tesla stock has nowhere to go but down, so his bear/short followers see any suggestion from him that something else is even possible as simply traitorous.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2622 on: June 19, 2019, 09:49:23 PM »
Quote
Alter Viggo (@AlterViggo) 6/19/19, 1:45 PM
** DELAYED **
No, not Tesla. @Porsche is delaying the release of the Taycan, its performance #EV.
Anyone wanna bet this has to do with @Tesla improving Model S range to 370 miles (not to mention faster charging rate)?

taycanforum.com/threads/taycan…
https://twitter.com/alterviggo/status/1141401662764044288
(Image below.)
- I wonder if the Audi recall tipped off the Taycan engineers to a similar issue.

——
While we’re waiting… the Tesla Model 3 wins even more accolades from famous doubters:

Tesla destroys German critic’s electric car prejudice after Model 3 test drive
“The car is much better than all models of electric competition. The technical lead is easily four to five years. Range and driving pleasure are unmatched.”
Quote
German automotive veteran Nando Sommerfeldt has not had good experiences with electric cars. At one time, the electric vehicles he was testing ended up running out of charge, making him stranded in the middle of a trip. Other vehicles proved too slow to charge, testing his family’s patience. Sommerfeldt has reservations about electric cars, even a prejudice, if you may, but it only lasted until he drove a Tesla Model 3. ...
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-model-3-destroys-ev-prejudice-germany-review/
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2623 on: June 19, 2019, 11:17:16 PM »
White is the new black

Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2624 on: June 20, 2019, 04:09:32 AM »
Re the Chanos “calls”:  Never mind!  ;D
Quote
Update: Apparently there was a filing error and puts were registered as calls. So the below article is now moot.

Has Tesla Ultra Bear, Jim Chanos thrown in the towel?, Update: Nope, filing error
https://evlution.co/stories/2019/6/18/Has_Tesla_Ultra_Bear_Jim_Chanos_thrown_in_the_towel_Update_Nope_filing_error.html

—-
But it’s not like many of the professional analysts are much better:  ::)

Quote
Carl Quintanilla (@carlquintanilla) 6/19/19, 8:19 AM
MORGAN STANLEY'S Jonas: "We continue to believe Tesla is fundamentally overvalued, but potentially strategically undervalued and that the stock market has done a good job pricing in the confluence of both factors, leaving us Equal-Weight with a $230 price target."
https://twitter.com/carlquintanilla/status/1141319683179778048
Quote
Is Tesla undervalued? Yes
Is Tesla overvalued? Yes
Is Tesla valued correctly? Yes

Outstanding analysis  ;D
https://twitter.com/28delayslater/status/1141335413803638785?s=21
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2625 on: June 20, 2019, 04:22:02 AM »
White is the new black

On the bright side, it makes all those scratches from Tesla haters keying your car less noticeable.
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2626 on: June 20, 2019, 07:52:16 AM »
TSLA is the new ZERO.

The only chance the equity has is some form of a bailout, whether public or private. There is no chance the company Tesla, without restructure, ever makes an annual profit.

If Tesla makes an annual profit (or if any other Musk company ever does, [currently about 0/50 ]) I will quit posting.


FYI, if you think you are pro green stuff, you shouldn't be pro business's turning "X" amount of value into "X minus billions of dollars". It is a serious waste of fossil fuel resources.
big time oops

b_lumenkraft

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2627 on: June 20, 2019, 07:57:59 AM »
If Tesla makes an annual profit (or if any other Musk company ever does, [currently about 0/50 ]) I will quit posting.

Hmm, until now i never cared about Tesla making a profit.

Bob Wallace

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2628 on: June 20, 2019, 08:52:45 AM »
TSLA is the new ZERO.

The only chance the equity has is some form of a bailout, whether public or private. There is no chance the company Tesla, without restructure, ever makes an annual profit.

If Tesla makes an annual profit (or if any other Musk company ever does, [currently about 0/50 ]) I will quit posting.


FYI, if you think you are pro green stuff, you shouldn't be pro business's turning "X" amount of value into "X minus billions of dollars". It is a serious waste of fossil fuel resources.

Would you explain why Tesla will not become profitable?  Let me give you a few facts you'll need to deal with.

1) Tesla has done a good job of holding operation expenses fairly level over the last several quarters.

For Q1 2017 through Q1 2019 Tesla's OpEx (administration, R&D, sales, net interest) has risen from $1,021,751,000 to $1,236,265,000.  And they've done that while introducing a very successful car in mid 2017.  Tesla sold more than 3x as many cars in Q1 2019 as they did in Q1 2017 with only a 21% increase in OpEx.

(edited to correct numbers and a spelling mistake)

2) Tesla continues to have good gross profit margins on the cars it makes and sells.  Over that same Q1 2017 through Q1 2019 period GPM has averaged 17.9%.

3) Tesla is continuing to grow production from their Fremont plant.  In Q3 and Q4 2018, which were a profitable quarters Tesla delivered/sold 80,142 and 86,555 cars.  Q4 averaged 6,658 cars per week.  Informal production reports are that Tesla is now producing over 7,000 cars per week and may have had a couple of weeks during which production reached 10,000.

Now, assuming some unpredictable catastrophe doesn't occur, why would Tesla not be profitable if they meet or exceed Q3/Q4 2018 production levels, keep GPMs in their current range, and do not increase operational costs? 
« Last Edit: June 21, 2019, 07:03:11 AM by Bob Wallace »

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2629 on: June 20, 2019, 09:16:12 AM »
Demand;

If demand stays high, Tesla will become profitable
If demand collapses, they will go broke

And predicting demand is difficult. Their cars are more expensive to buy than similar ICE-cars and have probably less gross margin than ICE-manufacturers.
Though it's very likely that total costs (including maintenance, fuel, maybe insurance?) of a model 3 is on par/ even lower than an ICE-car.

If that turns out to be true on the longer term and people start to believe it, demand will probably rise.

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2630 on: June 20, 2019, 11:41:41 AM »
FYI, if you think you are pro green stuff, you shouldn't be pro business's turning "X" amount of value into "X minus billions of dollars". It is a serious waste of fossil fuel resources.

This is called the cost of transitioning your infrastructure from FF to Clean(er), usage.  It is the cost of our gluttony on FF.  There is no other way.  If you compare the Government costs on FF reduction initiatives, the scale of money lost dwarfs Tesla into insignificance.  Governments have, so far, spent trillions on this and continue to spend hundreds of billions of taxpayers money, around the world, for a limited success in lowering FF usage. Germany being an excellent case.

If we, the people, want to get off FF, we need alternatives.  Tesla is in the market to give us an alternative with disruptive technology.  Governments are in the game of protecting GDP and the large companies which give that GDP its strength, at the expense of a solid transition away from FF.
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2631 on: June 20, 2019, 12:16:44 PM »
Though it's very likely that total costs (including maintenance, fuel, maybe insurance?) of a model 3 is on par/ even lower than an ICE-car.

In the US, this is a much tighter margin than in other countries.

If we take it that the cost of fuelling a FF car at an average 32mpg (US), at the average 40 miles per day, we get a 5 year cost of, roughly, $5,700, given $2.5 per gallon.  If we take the cost of fuelling a Tesla at an equivalent cost of 120mpg (charge price and m/kwh), that same 5 years saves around $4,200.

It gets much more interesting in the UK where fuel is around $5.7 per gallon.  Taking those same figures and extrapolating out gives a saving of around $9,500.  Given that Tesla cars are much more likely to make 5 years and hold their value, even at 73,000 miles, this is a significantly different picture in terms of calculating the TCO of a Tesla compared with the TCO of an ICE.

Although if you take the current UK new car average MPG (51.7 imperial 43.2 US), the figures dip to $2,700 on US fuel prices and $6,200 on UK fuel prices.

To cross check that I just did a cross calculation on UK fuel prices and UK electric prices comparing 43mpg (US) and 3.5 miles per KW/h.  It comes out at around 133mpg (US) and a comparison of $0.13 per mile as opposed to $0.04 per mile for a Tesla. Savings of $6,500 over 5 years.  This, of course, does not factor in inflation or wild swings in fuel prices.

Of course if you want to compare your Tesla with a sports car with around 25mpg (US), we're talking much more, like around $13,000 but if you have the cash for a sports car then a few thousand here or there is not going to sway you.

Even then this does not begin to approach the other factor which has cities in the EU starting to implement Zero emissions zones and much tighter controls, overall, to try and reduce their NO2 emissions issues in large cities.  This, alone, is going to drive EU demand for EV, over and above other considerations.

The US may be HUGE in economic terms, but the rest of the world is larger.  As I said, several times before, Tesla is an International vehicle manufacturer.  The US may be the main market today, but that does not mean that the US will be the largest demand driver in terms of EV going forward.

Food for thought.  It may be only hundreds of cars heading to the UK this quarter, but I have seen estimates that this will rise to thousands in Q3.

There is also the EPA with Japan that is driving a reduction of Japanese manufacturing in the EU in favour of higher exports from Japan.  If we see moves to build a Gigafactory in Japan, rather than the EU, this would also change the picture for Tesla demand and ability to meet customer requirements.

But that last bit is mere supposition.
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2632 on: June 20, 2019, 12:24:56 PM »

If Tesla makes an annual profit (or if any other Musk company ever does, [currently about 0/50 ]) I will quit posting.


What? You are going to deny us the fun of telling you "we told you so"? Sad.
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2633 on: June 20, 2019, 12:34:18 PM »
For Q1 2017 through Q1 2019 Tesla's OpEx (administration, R&D, sales, net interest) has risen from $1,021,751 million to $1,236,265 million.  And they've done that while introducing a very successful car in mid 2017.  Tesla sold more than 3x as many cars in Q1 2019 as they did in Q1 2017 with only a 21% increase in OpEx.

We also have to remember that Tesla has also, in that time-frame, created a brand new processor and built it into a computer for their autonomous driving; which uses around 1/3 the power, per compute power delivered, than the nearest equivalent (Nvidia).  Not only that, they beat Nvidia to market by some 6 months and allowed the launch of their own Self Drive around 1 year earlier than if they had used Nvidia.

This is no small undertaking. Tesla cars are driving, today, with a processor and computer, designed by Tesla themselves, from a standing start in 3 years.

At the same time Tesla is writing a ride hailing system, upgrading their self drive software to encompass the new power of the new processors and are about to launch their own insurance company.

All at the same time as coming close to breaking even, again.

It is not surprising that we see such wildly swinging opinions on the future price of Tesla shares.  It depends how closely you look.  If you take it as given that Tesla will survive whilst creating all these products, then you will see Tesla as a huge disruptor and with a huge potential value.

If, however, you look with a microscope, assume R&D is only for vehicles and not technology, then you could see Tesla dying.

Note, I haven't even touched on PowerWall or Solar Roof.  Both of which, together, in time to come, have potential value exceeding the total vehicle business.  Although not that of vehicles and RoboTaxi.

I am still waiting for Q2 results.

Whilst waiting for those Q2 results I will cogitate on:

- Model Y launch
- Model S and X refresh launch
- Gigafactory 3 build and delivery
- What they are doing to improve their processor and computer
- Creation and delivery of a ride hailing ecosystem
- The production of the Semi and potential launch
- Where Solar Roof is going and where PowerWall is going

And the cost of it all which is being borne by the "profit" of their current vehicle sales.

Over and above that, I'll think about the fact that if they don't have the batteries for Semi's as Model 3 production goes into overdrive, then PowerWall is going to stall for a bit longer.

Whether Tesla is going to fail or succeed?  It really does depend on where you look..
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2634 on: June 20, 2019, 02:05:15 PM »
If Tesla makes an annual profit (or if any other Musk company ever does, [currently about 0/50 ]) I will quit posting.

Hmm, until now i never cared about Tesla making a profit.

Funny how the bears used to say “Tesla will never (again) make a quarterly profit!” Which then happened in Q3 2018.  So they moved the goalpost to “Tesla will never make a profit two quarters in a row!”  Which then happened Q4 2018.  So now it’s, “But... but... Tesla will never make an annual profit!”  ::)  ;D

Tesla has checked off all the boxes to join the S&P 500 index but one: sufficient consecutive quarterly profit.  (Which does not have to be consecutive profitable quarters.) Achieving S&P membership will mean index fund managers will buy the stock (and keep it), and other investors will view Tesla as a safer investment, which should help reduce the bear FUD.

Tesla on Track to Join to S&P 500: Macquarie
https://www.investopedia.com/news/tesla-track-join-sp-500-macquarie/

Tesla’s Upcoming Inclusion In The S&P 500 Index
https://cleantechnica.com/2018/11/12/teslas-upcoming-inclusion-in-the-sp-500-index/

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2635 on: June 20, 2019, 02:08:57 PM »
This will make many peoples lives quite miserable. Or they will just deny they ever were Teslaq fanatics.

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2636 on: June 20, 2019, 03:54:34 PM »
“But... but... Tesla will never make an annual profit!”  ::)  ;D

True, but if you read the S&P article, Annual profit and a current profitable quarter are the entry barrier..

However, annual profit is the next barrier to stabilised share price and solid performance.  But, again, you are right.  Every time the next hurdle falls, the bears go onto the following hurdle and state that Tesla will "never" make it.

None so blind..
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2637 on: June 20, 2019, 05:25:55 PM »
Meanwhile, you could've bought Ford in July 2014 at nearly 18 bucks and be flogging it at 10 bucks today.
One should consider context when looking at share prices.
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2638 on: June 20, 2019, 05:57:23 PM »


b_lumenkraft

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2640 on: June 20, 2019, 06:16:57 PM »
Well reading that article the bias is dripping through every syllable. I feel dirty now. Off for a shower.

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2641 on: June 20, 2019, 07:01:05 PM »
Demand;

If demand stays high, Tesla will become profitable
If demand collapses, they will go broke

And predicting demand is difficult. Their cars are more expensive to buy than similar ICE-cars and have probably less gross margin than ICE-manufacturers.
Though it's very likely that total costs (including maintenance, fuel, maybe insurance?) of a model 3 is on par/ even lower than an ICE-car.

If that turns out to be true on the longer term and people start to believe it, demand will probably rise.

There is no indication that demand is decreasing for Tesla's cars.  And Tesla isn't yet selling into large parts of the global market. 

Tesla's Model 3 costs slightly less than BMW's 3 Series and Mercedes Class 3 ICEVs.  Tesla costs a bit less to purchase than its ICEV competition, premium sedans.  In terms of monthly out of pocket costs during auto loan payoff a Tesla 3 costs the same as a Toyota Camry V6.*

Tesla's gross profit margin averaged 20.2% for the last 4.25 years.  During the same 17 quarters BMW's GPM averaged 19.8%, Daimler average 20.6%, Toyota averaged 18.7%.

--

* $5k down, 5 year financing at 5%, 13,000 miles per year, $3/gallon gas, $0.10/kWh electricity.

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2642 on: June 20, 2019, 07:03:55 PM »
One should consider context when looking at share prices.

Indeed, Ford has 4 billion outstanding shares and is, pretty much, purely an automotive manufacturer.

Tesla has less than 40m outstanding shares and has products in several lines.

Granted Ford sells around 6.6m vehicles a year.  But, then again, Ford has nearly 200,000 employees.  Tesla has around 45,000.  Yet Tesla manufactures their own batteries, powertrains and software for managing the vehicles.

The biggest differentiator, though, is that Tesla is positioned to be the biggest player in the emerging EV automotive market, whilst Ford is an incumbent in the shrinking and viciously competitive FF vehicle market.

Tesla only has to grow and keep ahead. Ford has to turn the behemoth around and move to a new track without falling off the rails, catastrophically.

Context is everything and the largest context is that shares, all over, are tanking.  Due to  issues such as trade wars and political conflict.
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2643 on: June 20, 2019, 07:16:33 PM »
Here's Tesla P/L for the previous three quarters in millions thousands of dollars -

2018 Q3    $311,516   
2018 Q4   $139,483
2019 Q1   -$702,135

For the three quarters this sums to -$242,169.  Q3 and Q4 2018 averaged $225,500.  If Tesla's Q2 2018 profit is just 7.4% better than their Q3/Q4 2018 average then Tesla posts a profitable four quarter year.

Again, there are no signs that Tesla has large expense increases this quarter and signs that Q2 2019 production is higher than ever. 
« Last Edit: June 21, 2019, 07:01:30 AM by Bob Wallace »

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2644 on: June 20, 2019, 07:27:18 PM »
Mags article in English >> https://translate.google.com/translate?hl=&sl=de&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.focus.de%2Ffinanzen%2Fboerse%2Ftesla-abrechnung-mit-elon-musk-die-firma-ist-nicht-mehr-zu-retten_id_10416319.html%3Fobref%3Doutbrain-fol-web%26cm_ven%3Dfocus_outbrain

I hope Spiegel is very, very heavily invested in Tesla's failure.  He deserves to "profit" from his insights.  Someone with feelings that strong and making his arguments public to other investors should have his fortune where his mouth is.


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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2645 on: June 20, 2019, 07:38:54 PM »

Here's Tesla P/L for the previous three quarters in millions of dollars -

2018 Q3    $311,516   
2018 Q4   $139,483
2019 Q1   -$702,135

For the three quarters this sums to -$242,169.  Q3 and Q4 2018 averaged $225,500.  If Tesla's Q2 2018 profit is just 7.4% better than their Q3/Q4 2018 average then Tesla posts a profitable four quarter year.

Again, there are no signs that Tesla has large expense increases this quarter and signs that Q2 2019 production is higher than ever.
Even should Tesla achieve its delivery guidance of 90k-100k vehicles in Q2, which is by no means guaranteed, it is not expected to turn a profit, at least according to the same guidance. If it does it will be a huge surprise.

Bob Wallace

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2646 on: June 20, 2019, 07:45:19 PM »

Here's Tesla P/L for the previous three quarters in millions thousands of dollars -

2018 Q3    $311,516   
2018 Q4   $139,483
2019 Q1   -$702,135

For the three quarters this sums to -$242,169.  Q3 and Q4 2018 averaged $225,500.  If Tesla's Q2 2018 profit is just 7.4% better than their Q3/Q4 2018 average then Tesla posts a profitable four quarter year.

Again, there are no signs that Tesla has large expense increases this quarter and signs that Q2 2019 production is higher than ever.
Even should Tesla achieve its delivery guidance of 90k-100k vehicles in Q2, which is by no means guaranteed, it is not expected to turn a profit, at least according to the same guidance. If it does it will be a huge surprise.

I don't understand. 

In Q3 2018 Tesla delivered/sold 83,775 cars, in Q4 the number was 90,966.  90k-100k would be more cars sold than in the two previous profitable quarters.  There's no indications that operating expenses have appreciably risen.

What would be the reason for losing money while selling more cars while not paying out more in expenses?
« Last Edit: June 21, 2019, 07:00:56 AM by Bob Wallace »

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2647 on: June 20, 2019, 07:45:52 PM »
$TSLA getting rejected at its moving average. Goldman Sachs saying that for Tesla this quarter is "as good as it gets". I would have to agree, pain incoming.

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2648 on: June 20, 2019, 08:05:22 PM »
How are leases accounted for? We should expect a significant number of sales to be leases.I’m not sure how that affect quarterly profits.
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #2649 on: June 20, 2019, 08:12:48 PM »
Quote
Bark (@BarkMSmeagol) 6/20/19, 1:24 PM
Goldman: “We’re lowing our price target for $TSLA ”

Everyone: “But you haven’t changed anything in your assumptions. You actually increased deliveries for Q2, And you actually keep buying the stock”

Goldman: “Shush you! Do as I say. Not as I do”
https://twitter.com/barkmsmeagol/status/1141758804620529664
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.