Though it's very likely that total costs (including maintenance, fuel, maybe insurance?) of a model 3 is on par/ even lower than an ICE-car.
In the US, this is a much tighter margin than in other countries.
If we take it that the cost of fuelling a FF car at an average 32mpg (US), at the average 40 miles per day, we get a 5 year cost of, roughly, $5,700, given $2.5 per gallon. If we take the cost of fuelling a Tesla at an equivalent cost of 120mpg (charge price and m/kwh), that same 5 years saves around $4,200.
It gets much more interesting in the UK where fuel is around $5.7 per gallon. Taking those same figures and extrapolating out gives a saving of around $9,500. Given that Tesla cars are much more likely to make 5 years and hold their value, even at 73,000 miles, this is a significantly different picture in terms of calculating the TCO of a Tesla compared with the TCO of an ICE.
Although if you take the current UK new car average MPG (51.7 imperial 43.2 US), the figures dip to $2,700 on US fuel prices and $6,200 on UK fuel prices.
To cross check that I just did a cross calculation on UK fuel prices and UK electric prices comparing 43mpg (US) and 3.5 miles per KW/h. It comes out at around 133mpg (US) and a comparison of $0.13 per mile as opposed to $0.04 per mile for a Tesla. Savings of $6,500 over 5 years. This, of course, does not factor in inflation or wild swings in fuel prices.
Of course if you want to compare your Tesla with a sports car with around 25mpg (US), we're talking much more, like around $13,000 but if you have the cash for a sports car then a few thousand here or there is not going to sway you.
Even then this does not begin to approach the other factor which has cities in the EU starting to implement Zero emissions zones and much tighter controls, overall, to try and reduce their NO2 emissions issues in large cities. This, alone, is going to drive EU demand for EV, over and above other considerations.
The US may be HUGE in economic terms, but the rest of the world is larger. As I said, several times before, Tesla is an International vehicle manufacturer. The US may be the main market today, but that does not mean that the US will be the largest demand driver in terms of EV going forward.
Food for thought. It may be only hundreds of cars heading to the UK this quarter, but I have seen estimates that this will rise to thousands in Q3.
There is also the EPA with Japan that is driving a reduction of Japanese manufacturing in the EU in favour of higher exports from Japan. If we see moves to build a Gigafactory in Japan, rather than the EU, this would also change the picture for Tesla demand and ability to meet customer requirements.
But that last bit is mere supposition.
